FCS Conferences - from best to wrost?

[gofurman]

Just my guess - please reply with your thoughts. Am I way off base? I may be. I am going on conference strength of all teams involved- from top to bottom. though it's tough with some conferences having 14 teams and some having 8 or whatever

Top to bottom...

MVFC
CAA
Big Sky
Southern
Ivy - no playoffs
Southland
OVC
Patriot League
SWAC - no playoffs
MEAC - generally no playoffs
Northeast
Big South
Pioneer

Is that the general perception of most people on here? Again, I am looking at conferences in depth of strength - like the OVC has JSU (who is very good) but how much else? Ivy was hard to rank as I know they have some talent but then I don't see them play OOC in playoffs.

Where am I way off?

[JSUSoutherner]

Just my guess - please reply with your thoughts. Am I way off base? I may be. I am going on conference strength of all teams involved- from top to bottom. though it's tough with some conferences having 14 teams and some having 8 or whatever

Top to bottom...

MVFC
CAA
Big Sky
Southern
Ivy - no playoffs
Southland
OVC
Patriot League
SWAC - no playoffs
MEAC - generally no playoffs
Northeast
Big South
Pioneer

Is that the general perception of most people on here? Again, I am looking at conferences in depth of strength - like the OVC has JSU (who is very good) but how much else? Ivy was hard to rank as I know they have some talent but then I don't see them play OOC in playoffs.

Where am I way off?
SEMO won more OOC playoff games last season than all of the CAA teams not named Maine, so we got that, too.

[BisonTru]

Just my guess - please reply with your thoughts. Am I way off base? I may be. I am going on conference strength of all teams involved- from top to bottom. though it's tough with some conferences having 14 teams and some having 8 or whatever

Top to bottom...

MVFC
CAA
Big Sky
Southern
Ivy - no playoffs
Southland
OVC
Patriot League
SWAC - no playoffs
MEAC - generally no playoffs
Northeast
Big South
Pioneer

Is that the general perception of most people on here? Again, I am looking at conferences in depth of strength - like the OVC has JSU (who is very good) but how much else? Ivy was hard to rank as I know they have some talent but then I don't see them play OOC in playoffs.

Where am I way off?

You’re way low on the Big South and way too high on the SWAC. TBH if you just switched those two itd be pretty close.

Btw both the MEAC and SWAC can be in the playoffs but generally aren’t as their conference winner isn’t.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[OhioHen]

Where am I way off?

Having the SWAC above any conference but the Pioneer is WAY off.

[Reign of Terrier]

If we're going by best top teams at any given year of the last 3

MVFC
CAA
Big Sky
Southland
Big South
OVC
Southern
Ivy - no playoffs
Pioneer
Patriot League
Northeast
SWAC - no playoffs
MEAC - generally no playoffs


If we're going by best teams (emphasis on plural) in the playoffs:
MVFC
CAA
Big Sky
Southern
Southland
OVC
(rest are a wash)

If we're going by raw number of good teams
CAA
MVFC
Big Sky
Southern
Southland
(rest is a wash)

If we're going by balance of good teams in the conference (average quality from top to bottom)
MVFC
CAA
Southern
Big Sky
Southland
(rest is a wash)

[JSUSoutherner]

If we're going by best teams (emphasis on plural) in the playoffs:
MVFC
CAA
Big Sky
Southern
Southland
OVC
(rest are a wash)


Hold up, the SoCon hasn't had a current team go past the quarterfinals in 15 years and you're putting them over the Southland and the OVC who've both been to the National championship in this decade?

[PAllen]

In their current state? (based on the last 3-4 years) Broken into tiers:

MVFC
CAA
***********
Southland
Big Sky
Southern
OVC
**********
Northeast
MEAC - generally no playoffs
SWAC - no playoffs
Ivy - no playoffs
Patriot League
************
Big South
Pioneer

[Bison56]

Hold up, the SoCon hasn't had a current team go past the quarterfinals in 15 years and you're putting them over the Southland and the OVC who've both been to the National championship in this decade?

Im assuming this is a current ranking, not the past, you know the thing you don't like to dwell on?

[JSUSoutherner]

Im assuming this is a current ranking, not the past, you know the thing you don't like to dwell on?

Ok well, in that case the OVC won more playoff games than both the Southland and the SoCon and guess what,

That means my point still stands.

[Redbird 4th & short]

You’re way low on the Big South and way too high on the SWAC. TBH if you just switched those two itd be pretty close.

Btw both the MEAC and SWAC can be in the playoffs but generally aren’t as their conference winner isn’t.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Good list overall .. but not sure what to do with Ivy, MEAC, or SWAC. Ivy was stronger than usual last season but lost a lot and shoudl revert to lower norm. BUt probably first have to decide if you are ranking for this coming year or longer term.

If just for this year, Big Sky might be above Colonial in short term, though historically is well below just based on Colonial having much more depth most years. But if you are predicting how 2019 will go .. it is much closer between Big Sky and Colonial going into 2019 .. I would call it a tie.

But assuming you are ranking over longer recent period ...

agree .. too low on Big South, though KSU will likely fall off a bit this year .. I would put them right below OVC. Reasoning for OVC being higher is more depth .. Big South has very little depth, OVC has had some depth in some years, though fell off some and recently re-emerged.

Southern and Southland are tough call but Southern has been more consistent and far less dependent on one team (i.e. SHSU). But if forced to predict 2019, I might lean towards Southland. .. they seem to be re-emerging right now, moreso than Southern .. so historically, Southern gets the edge, but we'll see about 2019.

Already have said way too much, but looks like MVFC should have a stronger than usual year in 2019.

So here is my ranking for 2019 by conference .. meaning who will do best for season and playoffs .. # teams, W-L, relative SOS, etc

1. MVFC - 5 teams
2. Big Sky - 3 to 4 teams
3. Colonial ... 3 to 4 teams

2 and 3 combined .. 7 teams

4. Southern ... 2 to 3 teams
5. Southland .. 2 to 3 teams
6. OVC .. 2 to 3 teams

4, 5, and 6 combined - 7 teams

7. Big South .. 1 team .. KSU
8. Patriot .. 1 team .. Colgate
9. NEC .. 1 team .. Duquesne
10. Pioneer .. 1 team .. San Diego

So that's 23 bids ... leaving 1 more for any og the 1-6 conferences ranked above. If Colonial coud get 6 in 2018, I'm pretty sure MVFC will be as good or better in 2019 than Colonial was in 2018 ... so why couldn't MVFC get 6 teams in 2019 ?

[Bison56]

Ok well, in that case the OVC won more playoff games than both the Southland and the SoCon and guess what,

That means my point still stands.

Its an overall conference ranking, not who won more playoff games.

[JSUSoutherner]

Its an overall conference ranking, not who won more playoff games.

Really, maybe you should read what I quoted. I know you probably have trouble reading. Maybe I could mail you a speak and spell.



If we're going by best teams (emphasis on plural) in the playoffs:

In English, this means "who was better in the playoffs."

[wapiti]

I think you're too high on Ivy. The top one or two in Ivy can be pretty good, but the rest are weak. Plus no playoffs and a weak OOC schedule

[gofurman]

Just my guess - please reply with your thoughts.

*** I am going on conference strength of all teams involved - from top to bottom. Also, ok, let's say the past 3 or 4 years and loooking at next year though that's a guess at this point. So just as an example, in SoCon we might have Wofford and Furman currently (possibly 1 and 2) But we have to count Western and VMI (possible 8 and 9). But the real reason I give SoCon the 4th ranking is the middle teams of ETSU, Mercer, Samford, Chattanooga etc are generally 'good'. While in some conferences once you get to team 4 or 5 it's not good. IE, the preseason STATS poll had 7 SoCon teams receiving votes.
I am NOT pushing SoCon - I am saying that for purposes of this thread ranking I am counting ALL the teams in a conference.. Even the bottom. No cherrypicking
Though it's tough with some conferences having 14 teams and some having 8 or whatever -... so really saying the MVFC is the SEC of FCS etc. xnodx

So this is Not just about playoffs at all. Though that factors in. But all OOC games should factor in.. early season and playoffs. But count ALL the teams in the conference. Just as example, Big South has KSU and Monmouth but after that ??

Still ranked Top to bottom but in tiers ....

MVFC
CAA
Big Sky
--------------------------
Southern
Southland
OVC - JSU is very good but not much depth? That's where I struggle here.
---------------------------
Patriot League
Big South
Ivy - no playoffs but they seem to recruit talent
MEAC - generally no playoffs as top team goes to 'bowl'
Northeast
-------------------------
SWAC - generally no playoffs as top team goes to 'bowl'https://www.anygivensaturday.com/clear.gif (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/editpost.php?p=2786489&do=editpost)
Pioneer


Ivy was hard to rank as I know they have some talent but then they only play a few OOC...



All right, thanks !!! - Does this seem to be a better consensus?

[Panther88]

Just my guess - please reply with your thoughts. Am I way off base? I may be. I am going on conference strength of all teams involved- from top to bottom. though it's tough with some conferences having 14 teams and some having 8 or whatever

Top to bottom...

MVFC
CAA
Big Sky
Southern
Ivy - no playoffs
Southland
OVC
Patriot League
SWAC - no playoffs
MEAC - generally no playoffs
Northeast
Big South
Pioneer

Is that the general perception of most people on here? Again, I am looking at conferences in depth of strength - like the OVC has JSU (who is very good) but how much else? Ivy was hard to rank as I know they have some talent but then I don't see them play OOC in playoffs.

Where am I way off?

Perhaps that ranking was valid some 40 years ago for the SWAC but not today. Collectively, our conference hasn't done anything OOC vs D-I FBS/FCS to warrant that type of higher overall ranking.

Fall 2019, two SWAC W members will go toe to toe vs 2 Southland powers: SU will visit Mcneese and Nicholls will visit PVAMU. I've been very guarded providing information regarding the probability of our team. The big xii, big x, & sec were decently good to us w/ respect to a few of their fall 2018/2017 starters transferring into our program to fill needed gaps.

Seriously looking forward to Fourcade led Nicholls St coming to campus. :D

[gofurman]

Panther, see my new listing above your post. thanks

[DFW HOYA]

Missouri Valley
Colonial
Big Sky
--------------------------
Southern
Southland
Ohio Valley
---------------------------
Ivy League
Big South
MEAC
---------------------------
Northeast
Patriot League
SWAC
-------------------------
Pioneer

[Sader87]

As I've often stated here, the Ives in toto are better than they are often not given credit for here.

Princeton, Dartmouth and Yale were FCS Top 25 last year imo....and many of ther other schools were solid too...it hasn't been a top heavy league in awhile.

Definitely one of the Top 5 FCS leagues imo

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

As I've often stated here, the Ives in toto are better than they are often not given credit for here.

Princeton, Dartmouth and Yale were FCS Top 25 last year imo....and many of ther other schools were solid too...it hasn't been a top heavy league in awhile.

Definitely one of the Top 5 FCS leagues imo

I agree! And the weak OOC comments aren't correct either! Yale took out Maine and Mercer last yet finished 3-4 in the Ivy League.

The IL is loaded with talent and excellent coaches. Top 5-6 league imo....

[BEAR]

I think the Southland is the WROST conference! :D

[Redbird 4th & short]

I don't think it is fair to judge any conference based on the bottom of their conference .. the only relevance of that is how many easy games do the conferences top teams get each year ... so overal SOS in and out of conf is relevant. But I would only judge each conference based on the number of teams in playoff hunt and top 25 hunt first .. this includes legit "bubble" teams .. because that speaks to the overal quality and depth of "top" of each conference and who you'll probably see in playoffs more often than not. I don't care if your 3 worst teams are worse tham my 3 worst teams, unless one of mine could beat a top 25. Then once you have an idea of the quantity of good teams, then consider how many of them are very good and likley to mek elite eight and final four, etc. So I first look at how deep a conference is and then how strong is that depth.

But there are som eexample where the bottom of MVFC has done well against other conferences playoff teams. USD is easiest one during their early years when they really struggled to compete in MVFC. MoST had a couple nice OOC games while near bottom of MVFC

- in 2012, USD was 1-10 overall and 0-8 in MVFC. Their 1 win was over 8-3 Colgate by 10, who went 6-0 in Patriot and got a playoff bid and lost to weak autobid Wagner ... so 0-8 USD beat 6-0 PColgate from Patriot.

- in 2014, USD was 2-10 overall and again 0-8 in MVFC. In OOC games, they beat 7-5 NAU, a bubble team. And lost to Montana (9-4, 6-2) by 8 on road, who was 2nd place in Big Sky and made it to round of 16 in playoffs.

- in 2014, MoST ws 4-8 overall and just 1-7 in MVFC. In OOC games, the beat 5-3 UCA by 2 on road, beat 3-5 UND by 38, and beat 4-4 NWLA by 7 on road

2014 was high point for MVFC, but our 9th and 10th place teams were very competitive outside the MVFC that year.

edit above

[Reign of Terrier]

Hold up, the SoCon hasn't had a current team go past the quarterfinals in 15 years and you're putting them over the Southland and the OVC who've both been to the National championship in this decade?

Notice that I said plural, and it's pretty creative to add the "current" stipulation (even thought it's wrong, Furman got to the quarterfinals in 2005). The ranking I listed above it accomodates the stat you're looking for.

Jacksonville State/Sam Houston State on any given year (in fact, in many years) is better than the best socon team, if only slightly. But the 2nd-4th best Socon teams are better than the parallel OVC/Southland team and I will gladly die on that hill

[Reign of Terrier]

Ok well, in that case the OVC won more playoff games than both the Southland and the SoCon and guess what,

That means my point still stands.

Outside of Jacksonville State, the OVC has won 3 games in the last, like, 25 years. SEMO against Stony Brook, Eastern Illinois against OVC opponent Tennessee Tech, and Tennessee Tech against Butler.

Meanwhile, the socon has had 4 different teams win a playoff game since 2015. On the top of my head, that's 8 wins in that time.

Jacksonville State is probably a hair better than the best Socon team until proven otherwise, but if we were going to put the OVC together with the Socon and rank them it would look something like 1. Jacksonville State 2-5. Socon teams and then *maybe* 6. with SEMO.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

The Patriot League needs Lehigh to turn things around. They and Colgate have dominated the PL the last 20-25 year. The coaching staff situation at Lehigh the last 2 years was unfortunate. Lehigh should have been a Top 15 team in 2017. Not an embarrassing 5-6 playoff rep. I do believe they'll get the ball rolling again even if Gilmore isn't the second coming of Nick Saban. If Gilmore performs similar to a healthy Andy Coen Lehigh will be fine. Lehigh and Colgate have the ability to be Top 25 fixtures.

Holy Cross has the potential to have one big year under Chesney before he bolts for greener pastures. That likely won't be 2018. Fordham has proven several times over the years of being Top 25 good. They've also had some coaching staff issues since Moorhead left following the 2015 season. Georgetown has 9/10 win potential in 2018.

Lafayette and Bucknell are really the only truly morbid programs right now.

It's my belief that MOST years Lehigh and Fordham are the most talented teams top to bottom in the PL. Unfortunately, for both programs the pieces haven't always been put in the right places to succeed. That's where Colgate has thrived under Hunt the last 3-4 years.

[JSUSoutherner]

Notice that I said plural, and it's pretty creative to add the "current" stipulation (even thought it's wrong, Furman got to the quarterfinals in 2005). The ranking I listed above it accomodates the stat you're looking for.

Jacksonville State/Sam Houston State on any given year (in fact, in many years) is better than the best socon team, if only slightly. But the 2nd-4th best Socon teams are better than the parallel OVC/Southland team and I will gladly die on that hillExcuse me, fourteen years.

Sent from my Galaxy S9+ using Tapatalk

[Reign of Terrier]

Really, maybe you should read what I quoted. I know you probably have trouble reading. Maybe I could mail you a speak and spell.




In English, this means "who was better in the playoffs."

No, it means top-to-bottom the number of teams that get into the playoffs. OVC sucks outside of Jacksonville State usually. Socon got shafted by the committee this year (it happens) but we regularly nab at least 2 playoff wins a year and have done so for 6 of 10 of the last years and 3 of the last 4. OVC can't say that.

[Reign of Terrier]

Excuse me, fourteen years.

Sent from my Galaxy S9+ using Tapatalk

Playoff wins all-time (current members):
OVC: 32
Socon: 37

Playoff wins since 2000 (current members):
OVC: 9
Socon: 21

Playoff wins since 2010:
OVC: 9
Socon: 12

[JSUSoutherner]

Playoff wins all-time (current members):
OVC: 32
Socon: 37

Playoff wins since 2000 (current members):
OVC: 9
Socon: 21

Playoff wins since 2010:
OVC: 9
Socon: 12

Playoff wins since 2018:

OVC: 2
SoCon: 1

[Panther88]

Just my guess - please reply with your thoughts.

*** I am going on conference strength of all teams involved - from top to bottom. Also, ok, let's say the past 3 or 4 years and loooking at next year though that's a guess at this point. So just as an example, in SoCon we might have Wofford and Furman currently (possibly 1 and 2) But we have to count Western and VMI (possible 8 and 9). But the real reason I give SoCon the 4th ranking is the middle teams of ETSU, Mercer, Samford, Chattanooga etc are generally 'good'. While in some conferences once you get to team 4 or 5 it's not good. IE, the preseason STATS poll had 7 SoCon teams receiving votes.
I am NOT pushing SoCon - I am saying that for purposes of this thread ranking I am counting ALL the teams in a conference.. Even the bottom. No cherrypicking
Though it's tough with some conferences having 14 teams and some having 8 or whatever -... so really saying the MVFC is the SEC of FCS etc. xnodx

So this is Not just about playoffs at all. Though that factors in. But all OOC games should factor in.. early season and playoffs. But count ALL the teams in the conference. Just as example, Big South has KSU and Monmouth but after that ??

Still ranked Top to bottom but in tiers ....

MVFC
CAA
Big Sky
--------------------------
Southern
Southland
OVC - JSU is very good but not much depth? That's where I struggle here.
---------------------------
Patriot League
Big South
Ivy - no playoffs but they seem to recruit talent
MEAC - generally no playoffs as top team goes to 'bowl'
Northeast
-------------------------
SWAC - generally no playoffs as top team goes to 'bowl'https://www.anygivensaturday.com/clear.gif (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/editpost.php?p=2786489&do=editpost)
Pioneer


Ivy was hard to rank as I know they have some talent but then they only play a few OOC...



All right, thanks !!! - Does this seem to be a better consensus?

More accurate. Kudos.

[Reign of Terrier]

Playoff wins since 2018:

OVC: 2
SoCon: 1

Good troll, I couldn't spread rep:D

[JSUSoutherner]

Good troll, I couldn't spread rep:D

Is it a troll tho?

[Redbird 4th & short]

Playoff wins all-time (current members):
OVC: 32
Socon: 37

Playoff wins since 2000 (current members):
OVC: 9
Socon: 21

Playoff wins since 2010:
OVC: 9
Socon: 12



I thought total conference results didn't matter ... xrulesx ... that we just need to drill down on each conference's 4th place team, but only if going back to 2008 to determine the better conference ... I'm so confused now ???

xconfusedx

[gofurman]

I thought total conference results didn't matter ... xrulesx ... that we just need to drill down on each conference's 4th place team, but only if going back to 2008 to determine the better conference ... I'm so confused now ???

xconfusedx

DOn't be hijacking my thread. :D

[gofurman]

I don't think it is fair to judge any conference based on the bottom of their conference .. the only relevance of that is how many easy games do the conferences top teams get each year ... so overal SOS in and out of conf is relevant. But I would only judge each conference based on the number of teams in playoff hunt and top 25 hunt first .. this includes legit "bubble" teams .. because that speaks to the overal quality and depth of "top" of each conference and who you'll probably see in playoffs more often than not. I don't care if your 3 worst teams are worse tham my 3 worst teams, unless one of mine could beat a top 25. Then once you have an idea of the quantity of good teams, then consider how many of them are very good and likley to mek elite eight and final four, etc. So I first look at how deep a conference is and then how strong is that depth.

But there are som eexample where the bottom of MVFC has done well against other conferences playoff teams. USD is easiest one during their early years when they really struggled to compete in MVFC. MoST had a couple nice OOC games while near bottom of MVFC

- in 2012, USD was 1-10 overall and 0-8 in MVFC. Their 1 win was over 8-3 Colgate by 10, who went 6-0 in Patriot and got a playoff bid and lost to weak autobid Wagner ... so 0-8 USD beat 6-0 PColgate from Patriot.

- in 2014, USD was 2-10 overall and again 0-8 in MVFC. In OOC games, they beat 7-5 NAU, a bubble team. And lost to Montana (9-4, 6-2) by 8 on road, who was 2nd place in Big Sky and made it to round of 16 in playoffs.

- in 2014, MoST ws 4-8 overall and just 1-7 in MVFC. In OOC games, the beat 5-3 UCA by 2 on road, beat 3-5 UND by 38, and beat 4-4 NWLA by 7 on road

2014 was high point for MVFC, but our 9th and 10th place teams were very competitive outside the MVFC that year.


Redbird, you make some good points. However, The problem with raw quantity of good teams - I struggled with this and this is why I included 'bottom teams - is some conferences having 13 teams or whatever (Big Sky and CAA) and some have 6 teams (!) - the Big South.

So I didn't want to go just by "how many good teams you have" - that's far easier with a 14 team conference!

*I wanted ' what PERCENTAGE of your teams are Decent or better'. Just where I was coming from in this thread

[FUBeAR]

Not addressing Conference strength. I failed calculus...twice. So, I’m out of that convo.

But...I am wondering, IF you accept FUBeAR’s premise that 7 of the 9 SoCon Teams have a LEGITIMATE shot to win the Conference Championship, are there any other FCS Conferences that have that level of INTERNAL competition, with almost 80% of the Teams in the conference having a REALISTIC chance at the title?

[Redbird 4th & short]

Not addressing Conference strength. I failed calculus...twice. So, I’m out of that convo.

But...I am wondering, IF you accept FUBeAR’s premise that 7 of the 9 SoCon Teams have a LEGITIMATE shot to win the Conference Championship, are there any other FCS Conferences that have that level of INTERNAL competition, with almost 80% of the Teams in the conference having a REALISTIC chance at the title?
Except usually when that is true, that is probably a sign of conference weakness at the top ... unless they have historically gotten many bids each year and won more than they lost in playoffs.

[FUBeAR]

Except usually when that is true, that is probably a sign of conference weakness at the top ... unless they have historically gotten many bids each year and won more than they lost in playoffs.
Cool story bro’

Do you have an answer for the question I asked?

I’m genuinely interested if there is/are other Conference(s) with similar situation(s).

[Reign of Terrier]

I thought total conference results didn't matter ... xrulesx ... that we just need to drill down on each conference's 4th place team, but only if going back to 2008 to determine the better conference ... I'm so confused now ???

xconfusedxThere's a difference between judging which teams deserve a shot at a playoff bid based on prior conference performance and evaluating two conferences as better/worse based on raw playoff wins. The former helps us evaluate teams based on conference standing, the latter helps us understand absolute quality of the conference.

I also didn't include the wins by App State, Georgia Southern, or Marshall, who would have probably almost doubled the total wins by the socon.

You think you're dunking on me but you're revealing how superbly unintelligent you are.

Sidenote: if you include the playoff wins by App, Georgia Southern and Marshall in this count, the number grows by 72. You could say that's not fair but EKU has half of the OVC's playoff wins (16 I think) and they have one playoff win in my lifetime.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[gofurman]

Cool story bro’

Do you have an answer for the question I asked?

I’m genuinely interested if there is/are other Conference(s) with similar situation(s).

NOT arguing conference strength here. Just answering FUBeAR - I can't think of another conference where 7 of 9 teams (80% ish) could realistically win the conference... not off-hand. Certainly not Big South, OVC, MEAC.. Maybe the CAA in certain years?

[JSUSoutherner]

NOT arguing conference strength here. Just answering FUBeAR - I can't think of another conference where 7 of 9 teams (80% ish) could realistically win the conference... not off-hand. Certainly not Big South, OVC, MEAC.. Maybe the CAA in certain years?

I think you guys think too highly of your conference mates. The only 4 with a shot are ETSU, UTC, Furman, and Wofford. And even UTC is probably a stretch.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think you guys think too highly of your conference mates. The only 4 with a shot are ETSU, UTC, Furman, and Wofford. And even UTC is probably a stretch.Yeah anyone who actually thinks there are 7 is showing wishful thinking.

4 is about right. The best the citadel, Western, Mercer and Samford can hope for is co-champs (like ETSU last year) or a playoff spot

Meteoric rises in the socon just don't happen historically and I'm telling you, Wofford is going to be something special this year (relative to Wofford's standards) and Furman is the only tram that concerns me.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[PAllen]

NOT arguing conference strength here. Just answering FUBeAR - I can't think of another conference where 7 of 9 teams (80% ish) could realistically win the conference... not off-hand. Certainly not Big South, OVC, MEAC.. Maybe the CAA in certain years?

In the Patriot this year, just about everyone has a chance, but that says more about the weakness of the league than its strength.

[FUBeAR]

Yeah anyone who actually thinks there are 7 is showing wishful thinking.

4 is about right. The best the citadel, Western, Mercer and Samford can hope for is co-champs (like ETSU last year) or a playoff spot

Meteoric rises in the socon just don't happen historically and I'm telling you, Wofford is going to be something special this year (relative to Wofford's standards) and Furman is the only tram that concerns me.


I think you guys think too highly of your conference mates. The only 4 with a shot are ETSU, UTC, Furman, and Wofford. And even UTC is probably a stretch.

Point me to the pre-2018-season post(s) where either of you 2 Football Geniuses projected ETSU winning the SoCon last year (and winning a Co-Championship IS winning the Championship) & I will agree & acknowledge your self-assured prescience & omniscience. Otherwise, contrary to Biblical teaching, I will lean on my own understanding. In fact, I’d wager $’s to doughnuts neither of you can point to your 2018 pre-season projection of Furman winning the SoCon either...even after the Paladins were coming off a 2017 Playoff season with a 1st round win on the road over an oh-So-powerful CAA Team.

Heck, with WCU having the most exciting & productive 1-man-band in college football (told you he wasn’t transferring!), to be completely honest, they might even have a shot at sneaking in there...making it 8 of 9.

[FUBeAR]

In the Patriot this year, just about everyone has a chance, but that says more about the weakness of the league than its strength.Certainly no expert on the PL, but my distant impression is that Colgate ran away with the Championship last year & returns a lot of players, leaving the rest (except Bucknell & Lafayette...and maybe Georgetown (based on history))...so Lehigh, Fordham, and Holy Cross...playing for 2nd place.

Is that bad wrong?

[Herder]

19 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 57.79 59.21 ( 18) 10 58.28 ( 19)
20 CONF USA-WEST (A) = 55.55 55.10 ( 20) 7 55.36 ( 20)
21 SUN BELT-WEST (A) = 54.45 54.47 ( 21) 5 54.45 ( 21)
22 COLONIAL (AA)= 50.18 50.09 ( 22) 12 50.00 ( 22)
23 BIG SKY (AA)= 48.69 49.45 ( 23) 14 49.03 ( 23)
24 SOUTHERN (AA)= 46.19 45.40 ( 24) 9 45.91 ( 24)
25 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 44.50 44.85 ( 25) 8 44.65 ( 25)
26 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 42.11 42.04 ( 26) 9 42.21 ( 26)
27 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 41.76 41.14 ( 27) 11 41.47 ( 27)
28 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 34.40 35.49 ( 28) 6 34.22 ( 28)
29 NORTHEAST (AA)= 32.07 31.45 ( 30) 7 31.70 ( 29)
30 PATRIOT (AA)= 30.85 33.22 ( 29) 7 31.40 ( 30)
31 I-AA IND. (AA)= 30.83 30.83 ( 31) 2 30.83 ( 31)
32 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 30.35 30.73 ( 32) 10 30.41 ( 32)
33 SWAC-WEST (AA)= 29.03 27.91 ( 33) 5 28.54 ( 33)
34 SWAC-EAST (AA)= 24.35 24.46 ( 34) 5 24.33 ( 34)
35 PIONEER (AA)= 21.34 22.44 ( 35) 10 21.86 ( 35)

[JSUSoutherner]

Point me to the pre-2018-season post(s) where either of you 2 Football Geniuses projected ETSU winning the SoCon last year (and winning a Co-Championship IS winning the Championship) & I will agree & acknowledge your self-assured prescience & omniscience. Otherwise, contrary to Biblical teaching, I will lean on my own understanding. In fact, I’d wager $’s to doughnuts neither of you can point to your 2018 pre-season projection of Furman winning the SoCon either...even after the Paladins were coming off a 2017 Playoff season with a 1st round win on the road over an oh-So-powerful CAA Team.

Heck, with WCU having the most exciting & productive 1-man-band in college football (told you he wasn’t transferring!), to be completely honest, they might even have a shot at sneaking in there...making it 8 of 9.

ETSU was a surprise to everyone and like Terrier pointed out, that isn't happening often.

Also I had Wofford 15 and Furman 17 in my preseason poll last year so you can take your butthurt Furman tears and shove them.

[PaladinFan]

ETSU was a surprise to everyone and like Terrier pointed out, that isn't happening often.

Also I had Wofford 15 and Furman 17 in my preseason poll last year so you can take your butthurt Furman tears and shove them.

I think you will see ETSU regress to the mean.

When you dive into the numbers a bit, the Bucs really outperformed expectations in 2018. They had a negative point differential and weren't among the conference leaders on either offense or defense.

Last season, the Bucs won 6 SoCon games. Surprisingly, though, they didn't win a single conference game by more than 3 points. They won 4 games by 3 points and 2 games by 2 points. I think it is fair to say that ETSU never looked clearly the better team in any conference game they played.

Sometimes you see these types of seasons - where a team isn't particularly dominant in any area but manages to win games they probably should have lost. Wofford had a similar season in 2017. Furman won a title in 2013 doing the same.

[FUBeAR]

ETSU was a surprise to everyone and like Terrier pointed out, that isn't happening often.

Also I had Wofford 15 and Furman 17 in my preseason poll last year
Yep - non-favorites don’t win SoCon Championships very often - just 2013 (Samford, Furman &, Chatt) 2015 (CIT), 2016 (CIT), & 2018 (ETSU & FU)...just 67% of the time...or looking at it another way...7 unexpected Champions in the past 6 seasons.

Cool story on you Poll rankings. Show me where you posted Furman would win the SoCon Championship in 2018.

Brilliant!

[JSUSoutherner]

I think you will see ETSU regress to the mean.

When you dive into the numbers a bit, the Bucs really outperformed expectations in 2018. They had a negative point differential and weren't among the conference leaders on either offense or defense.

Last season, the Bucs won 6 SoCon games. Surprisingly, though, they didn't win a single conference game by more than 3 points. They won 4 games by 3 points and 2 games by 2 points. I think it is fair to say that ETSU never looked clearly the better team in any conference game they played.

Sometimes you see these types of seasons - where a team isn't particularly dominant in any area but manages to win games they probably should have lost. Wofford had a similar season in 2017. Furman won a title in 2013 doing the same.

Idk, they reminded me a lot of Kennesaw in 2017. Their coach is solid and to my knowledge they didn't lose a whole bunch of players (I haven't looked in depth at their roster though) so I could see them staying competitive.

I like their coach.

[PaladinFan]

Idk, they reminded me a lot of Kennesaw in 2017. Their coach is solid and to my knowledge they didn't lose a whole bunch of players (I haven't looked in depth at their roster though) so I could see them staying competitive.

I like their coach.

I think the defense will be good. I see a lot of question marks on offense.

Quay Holmes is outstanding, but they rode him hard last season. He had over 20+ touches a game rushing, receiving, and returning kicks. I haven't done a deep dive, but I imagine that would easily have set the bar for all non-QBs in the conference. That's a lot of emphasis on a single player staying healthy.

I certainly believe they will be competitive. I think the whole conference will be competitive.

[Fordham]

Missouri Valley
Colonial
Big Sky
--------------------------
Southern
Southland
Ohio Valley
---------------------------
Ivy League
Big South
MEAC
---------------------------
Northeast
Patriot League
SWAC
-------------------------
Pioneer
this works for me too

[Reign of Terrier]

Point me to the pre-2018-season post(s) where either of you 2 Football Geniuses projected ETSU winning the SoCon last year (and winning a Co-Championship IS winning the Championship) & I will agree & acknowledge your self-assured prescience & omniscience. Otherwise, contrary to Biblical teaching, I will lean on my own understanding. In fact, I’d wager $’s to doughnuts neither of you can point to your 2018 pre-season projection of Furman winning the SoCon either...even after the Paladins were coming off a 2017 Playoff season with a 1st round win on the road over an oh-So-powerful CAA Team.

Heck, with WCU having the most exciting & productive 1-man-band in college football (told you he wasn’t transferring!), to be completely honest, they might even have a shot at sneaking in there...making it 8 of 9.

Go back anywhere in the last 15 years, and you probably won't find a Socon champ that had a losing record overall the year before. The only exception I can think of is Wofford 2010 which had an anomalous amount of injuries in 2009. Even when App State/GSU/Marshall was in the Socon, you see a cycle where if a team wins the conference out-right, they likely tied for it the year before. And if they have a winning record, they're liable to tie, but that's not as likely as a stalwart at the top taking it.

The only time the above "rule" hasn't been applicable was Furman in 1998, but to be honest I think we all know that the bottom half of the Socon is much tougher than it was back then.


I think you will see ETSU regress to the mean.

When you dive into the numbers a bit, the Bucs really outperformed expectations in 2018. They had a negative point differential and weren't among the conference leaders on either offense or defense.

Last season, the Bucs won 6 SoCon games. Surprisingly, though, they didn't win a single conference game by more than 3 points. They won 4 games by 3 points and 2 games by 2 points. I think it is fair to say that ETSU never looked clearly the better team in any conference game they played.

Sometimes you see these types of seasons - where a team isn't particularly dominant in any area but manages to win games they probably should have lost. Wofford had a similar season in 2017. Furman won a title in 2013 doing the same.

The difference is that Wofford actually won a few games in conference by double digits (Furman in the playoffs, VMI) and there were games where we were clearly the better team but had some bad luck on 2-3 plays that made the difference between a comfortable win and a close one (Furman the first time around, Gardner Webb, ETSU). The only one that felt like we stole was Mercer.

ETSU last year had no such vibe. They were somewhat controlled by Wofford and Samford, and felt like they were controlled for 90% of the game against Furman. They stole one against Western Carolina, Furman and Mercer. Maybe they didn't "steal" one against the Citadel, VMI, and Chattanooga, but I do think if those teams were more competitent at the time they played (Rainey plays for the Citadel, Chattanooga has a competent offense, VMI is marginally better) those games go differently.

I could be wrong about all this ETSU surprises everyone this year, but Herink was the best QB they had last year and arguably who their offense relied on the most, and he's gone.


Yep - non-favorites don’t win SoCon Championships very often - just 2013 (Samford, Furman &, Chatt) 2015 (CIT), 2016 (CIT), & 2018 (ETSU & FU)...just 67% of the time...or looking at it another way...7 unexpected Champions in the past 6 seasons.

Cool story on you Poll rankings. Show me where you posted Furman would win the SoCon Championship in 2018.

Brilliant!

1) With App/GSU ineligible for the championship in 2013, there were no favorites. Maybe Wofford, we didn't have Breitenstein

2) Hard to say 2016 wasn't a favorite to win the socon considering they won it in 2015.

3) None of these teams break the trend of "teams that don't finish at the top the year before don't typically win the conference outright." When you have co and tri-champs, the logic of "champion" starts to fall apart because by definition on team is above the pack by too much. The only one of your listed teams I feel comfortable listing as "unexpected" or "coming out of nowhere" is 2015 Citadel and 2018 ETSU, and even then the Citadel in 2014 was just as close to being 8-4 as ETSU was to being 3-9, so it's not as crazy to see them successful.

Winning the socon outright typically entails winning 9 games (in an 11 game season). Going from 5 to 8 regular season games isn't uncommon. ETSU went from 4 wins to games, and unlike, say the 2012-2013 Furman team (which went from 3 wins to 7 wins in the regular season, but lost 4 games in 2012 by less than a touchdown), all but one of their losses in 2017 were that close (The Citadel and Wofford were only one score games, but I don't think either ever trailed)

[gofurman]

I think you guys think too highly of your conference mates. The only 4 with a shot are ETSU, UTC, Furman, and Wofford. And even UTC is probably a stretch.

Could be. I might agree wtih ya'll should be 5/ or so have a shot. anyway FUBeAR said "IF we agree w his hypothesis.. I think he said that

[Reign of Terrier]

I think the defense will be good. I see a lot of question marks on offense.

Quay Holmes is outstanding, but they rode him hard last season. He had over 20+ touches a game rushing, receiving, and returning kicks. I haven't done a deep dive, but I imagine that would easily have set the bar for all non-QBs in the conference. That's a lot of emphasis on a single player staying healthy.

I certainly believe they will be competitive. I think the whole conference will be competitive.

Herink was more essential IMO

ETSU didn't run the ball to well against quality defenses. I remember being impressed with how they ran against Jacksonville State because this fact was pretty salient to me, and they were able to do that by leaning on Herink to put some balance on the offense. He's gone and there's 3 guys fighting for the spot but they're all freshmen.

If VMI/WCU had marginally better defenses last year, Chattanooga a marginally better offense, and Mercer a healthy scholarship QB, we're not having this conversation right now.

[PaladinFan]

Go back anywhere in the last 15 years, and you probably won't find a Socon champ that had a losing record overall the year before.

Furman's 2013 team. The Paladins finished 3-8 in 2012 and then 3-9 in 2014.

I've argued a bunch on our board that there may be no clearer example of a statistical outlier than that 2013 Paladin team. Furman's offense wasn't particularly good, and was heavily bolstered by a truly transcendent talent in Dakota Dozier (OT). He made a bleak offense look "alright" but just being the biggest, baddest man on the field.

That Paladin team really road an unsustainably high turnover margin (+12!), decent defense, and very good place kicker (Ray Early) to a conference title. When you force a bunch of turnovers, limit opponents scoring, and can make field goals consistently, you can win games.

After 2013, Dozier graduated, Furman regressed in turnover margin, and had another crappy season.

[FUBeAR]

Go back anywhere in the last 15 years, and you probably won't find a Socon champ that had a losing record overall the year before. The only exception I can think of is Wofford 2010 which had an anomalous amount of injuries in 2009. Even when App State/GSU/Marshall was in the Socon, you see a cycle where if a team wins the conference out-right, they likely tied for it the year before. And if they have a winning record, they're liable to tie, but that's not as likely as a stalwart at the top taking it.

The only time the above "rule" hasn't been applicable was Furman in 1998, but to be honest I think we all know that the bottom half of the Socon is much tougher than it was back then.



The difference is that Wofford actually won a few games in conference by double digits (Furman in the playoffs, VMI) and there were games where we were clearly the better team but had some bad luck on 2-3 plays that made the difference between a comfortable win and a close one (Furman the first time around, Gardner Webb, ETSU). The only one that felt like we stole was Mercer.

ETSU last year had no such vibe. They were somewhat controlled by Wofford and Samford, and felt like they were controlled for 90% of the game against Furman. They stole one against Western Carolina, Furman and Mercer. Maybe they didn't "steal" one against the Citadel, VMI, and Chattanooga, but I do think if those teams were more competitent at the time they played (Rainey plays for the Citadel, Chattanooga has a competent offense, VMI is marginally better) those games go differently.

I could be wrong about all this ETSU surprises everyone this year, but Herink was the best QB they had last year and arguably who their offense relied on the most, and he's gone.



1) With App/GSU ineligible for the championship in 2013, there were no favorites. Maybe Wofford, we didn't have Breitenstein

2) Hard to say 2016 wasn't a favorite to win the socon considering they won it in 2015.

3) None of these teams break the trend of "teams that don't finish at the top the year before don't typically win the conference outright." When you have co and tri-champs, the logic of "champion" starts to fall apart because by definition on team is above the pack by too much. The only one of your listed teams I feel comfortable listing as "unexpected" or "coming out of nowhere" is 2015 Citadel and 2018 ETSU, and even then the Citadel in 2014 was just as close to being 8-4 as ETSU was to being 3-9, so it's not as crazy to see them successful.

Winning the socon outright typically entails winning 9 games (in an 11 game season). Going from 5 to 8 regular season games isn't uncommon. ETSU went from 4 wins to games, and unlike, say the 2012-2013 Furman team (which went from 3 wins to 7 wins in the regular season, but lost 4 games in 2012 by less than a touchdown), all but one of their losses in 2017 were that close (The Citadel and Wofford were only one score games, but I don't think either ever trailed)
You’re really slipping. I don’t have time to list all the errors, so I’ll just start/stop with the 1st one - CIT was SoCon Champs in 2015 & were 3-4/5-7 in 2014.

[Redbird 4th & short]

You’re really slipping. I don’t have time to list all the errors, so I’ll just start/stop with the 1st one - CIT was SoCon Champs in 2015 & were 3-4/5-7 in 2014.
nice try ... being factual or not is but the smallest of speed bumps for Reign ... he will state many things as fact, that are clearly wrong .... like when he said no 5th or 4th place teams ever won a playoff game ... 3 of 5 MVFC have done so. Too many others to count. But on his very first post on this topic when he stated unequivacally that no 3rd-5th place team ever beat another conference's 1st or 2nd place team .. I think I named 7 MVFC examples. To which he moved those goal posts at least 2 maybe 3 times .... yet would only acknowledge 2015 when 5th place WIU beat 1st place Dayton on road .. of course ithat game being the least favorable to MVFC of the 7 examples I provided .. so a complete deception on top of the original fiction.

But correcting does not slow him down .. he will eventually pick apart your typos, while making several typos himself as he criticizes your posts for having typos. Then he will quickly resort to name calling and insults. Eventually he will say I'm done "engaging" with you, then enageg with you within a half day.

Rinse, move goal posts, repeat, etc

xdrunkyx

[Reign of Terrier]

You’re really slipping. I don’t have time to list all the errors, so I’ll just start/stop with the 1st one - CIT was SoCon Champs in 2015 & were 3-4/5-7 in 2014.

The word "probably" kind of recuses me of any "slipping"


nice try ... being factual or not is but the smallest of speed bumps for Reign ... he will state many things as fact, that are clearly wrong .... like when he said no 5th or 4th place teams ever won a playoff game ... 3 of 5 MVFC have done so. Too many others to count. But on his very first post on this topic when he stated unequivacally that no 3rd-5th place team ever beat another conference's 1st or 2nd place team .. I think I named 7 MVFC examples. To which he moved those goal posts at least 2 maybe 3 times .... yet would only acknowledge 2015 when 5th place WIU beat 1st place Dayton on road .. of course ithat game being the least favorable to MVFC of the 7 examples I provided .. so a complete deception on top of the original fiction.

But correcting does not slow him down .. he will eventually pick apart your typos, while making several typos himself as he criticizes your posts for having typos. Then he will quickly resort to name calling and insults. Eventually he will say I'm done "engaging" with you, then enageg with you within a half day.

Rinse, move goal posts, repeat, etc

xdrunkyx

I never made a comment about NO fourth or fifth place team winning a playoff game. I said it about the MVFC about a month ago, and it was pointed out as a mistake and I corrected my claim. It's accurate to say that it's unlikely to happen unless it's against a team unlikely to win a game in the first place (3rd place SLC, Pioneer team, etc)

I also never made that claim about a third or fifth place team never beating a 1st or second place team. I wouldn't be so careless with a statement because it's so on its face wrong (first place OVC, Patriot, MEAC, NEC, etc get curb stompted pretty regularly) and I challenge you to find a post where I said that. You're pulling that one clearly out of your ass.

It's actually amazing (but not) that your claims about me "moving the goal post" that you won't shut the **** up about are complete fabrications.

[PaladinFan]

Here's my thought - if you can't finish higher than 4th or 5th in your own conference, you don't need to be in the playoffs anyway.

[Reign of Terrier]

Here's my thought - if you can't finish higher than 4th or 5th in your own conference, you don't need to be in the playoffs anyway.

Exactly my point but redbird over here would have us thinking that a third place or even second place team in a power conference couldn't beat Dayton.

[FUBeAR]

The word "probably" kind of recuses me of any "slipping"

You’re probably really slipping then cuz, as Paladin Fan pointed out, that ain’t the only 1 in recent years AND there are probably several more / more than several errors in that post that I’m not gonna take the time to expose.

YOU KNOW, as FUBeAR posits, any 1 of 7 SoCon Teams has a very realistic shot of winning, at least a share, of the SoCon Championship this season. You shouldn’t keep embarrassing yourself with ‘made up facts’ spewed to support pretending that you don’t.

[Reign of Terrier]

You’re probably really slipping then cuz, as Paladin Fan pointed out, that ain’t the only 1 in recent years AND there are probably several more / more than several errors in that post that I’m not gonna take the time to expose.

YOU KNOW, as FUBeAR posits, any 1 of 7 SoCon Teams has a very realistic shot of winning, at least a share, of the SoCon Championship this season. You shouldn’t keep embarrassing yourself with ‘made up facts’ spewed to support pretending that you don’t.

By my count there are 3 teams that had a losing record the year before but tied for the conference title in the last 20ish years 1999 Furman, 2010 Wofford, 2013 Furman, 2015 Citadel and 2018 ETSU. None of them won the conference outright. 4 of the 5 were in a 3 way tie, and if Chattanooga actually took care of business against start up Mercer in 2015, the Citadel isn't even on the list.

If we're going to go by raw probability, there have been 42 teams to claim a share of the conference title since 1992 (~27 seasons) and only 5 had a losing season the year before. So you have a prior probability of like 11% to *tie* for the conference title if you're VMI/WCU/Citadel/Mercer, which is to say, not great.

If you want to be generous and say it's more like 25% because it's been 5 of the last 20, have at it, but I don't think it's likely they replicate the same luck of ETSU 2018, have as easy of a conference schedule as 2015 Citadel (not that that team was bad but the Socon was a mess that year) or had as many injuries as the 2009 Wofford team. Furman and Wofford are probably as good as they've ever been in the last 15 years or so this year, which is honestly better than any other team still in the conference at that time. Maybe a team rises up and steals a win to tie the conference title, but I see Chattanooga doing that before Mercer/WCU/Citadel/VMI

[FUBeAR]

By my count there are 3 teams that had a losing record the year before but tied for the conference title in the last 20ish years 1999 Furman, 2010 Wofford, 2013 Furman, 2015 Citadel and 2018 ETSU. None of them won the conference outright. 4 of the 5 were in a 3 way tie, and if Chattanooga actually took care of business against start up Mercer in 2015, the Citadel isn't even on the list.

If we're going to go by raw probability, there have been 42 teams to claim a share of the conference title since 1992 (~27 seasons) and only 5 had a losing season the year before. So you have a prior probability of like 11% to *tie* for the conference title if you're VMI/WCU/Citadel/Mercer, which is to say, not great.

If you want to be generous and say it's more like 25% because it's been 5 of the last 20, have at it, but I don't think it's likely they replicate the same luck of ETSU 2018, have as easy of a conference schedule as 2015 Citadel (not that that team was bad but the Socon was a mess that year) or had as many injuries as the 2009 Wofford team. Furman and Wofford are probably as good as they've ever been in the last 15 years or so this year, which is honestly better than any other team still in the conference at that time. Maybe a team rises up and steals a win to tie the conference title, but I see Chattanooga doing that before Mercer/WCU/Citadel/VMI
I don’t know how it is that you’ve suddenly gotten it in your head that the 2019 editions of Wofford & Furman are the FCS versions of Alabama & Clemson.

I mean...I watched Wofford, just last year, get absolutely curb stomped by a pretty good non-Playoff Furman Team. Then I watched a mediocre Samford squad, that was already decimated by injuries on Defense (so much so that a mediocre CIT Team would run them out of the building the following week), take apart Wofford for a 2-score win, in which, according to ESPN game tracker, Wofford never had a better than 47% chance of winning. Then, Noveau-NDSU-South (AKA woofy) lost to a just-decent BIG SOUTH Team in the Playoffs. Juggernaut? Jugger-NOT!

I’ll refrain from detailing the elsewhere well-documented 2018 travails of my Paladins that I watched, er, endured, but I can assure you there is not a living soul INSIDE the Pearce-Horton Football Complex in Travelers Rest who thinks Furman is a ‘lock’ to win any single SoCon game this Fall. With live electrodes firmly attached to their genitalia, you might find 1 or 2 that would admit to feeling that way about their Home game with VMI, but that’s it...and those 1 or 2 would probably be Freshmen walk-ons.

To think that Chattanooga, ETSU, Mercer, Samford, The Citadel...AND...maybe even...WCU aren’t each realistically capable of coming out of the SoCon WARS with a 2-loss SoCon record & grabbing a share of the SoCon Championship this year is as silly as a Football Team having a 1’-0” 15 pound mascot!!!

[Reign of Terrier]

I don’t know how it is that you’ve suddenly gotten it in your head that the 2019 editions of Wofford & Furman are the FCS versions of Alabama & Clemson.

I mean...I watched Wofford, just last year, get absolutely curb stomped by a pretty good non-Playoff Furman Team. Then I watched a mediocre Samford squad, that was already decimated by injuries on Defense (so much so that a mediocre CIT Team would run them out of the building the following week), take apart Wofford for a 2-score win, in which, according to ESPN game tracker, Wofford never had a better than 47% chance of winning. Then, Noveau-NDSU-South (AKA woofy) lost to a just-decent Big South Team in the Playoffs. Juggernaut? Jugger-NOT!

I’ll refrain from detailing the elsewhere well-documented 2018 travails of my Paladins that I watched, but I can assure you there is not a living soul INSIDE the Pearce-Horton Football Complex in Travelers Rest who thinks Furman is a ‘lock’ to win any single SoCon game this Fall. With live electrodes firmly attached to their genitalia, you might find 1 or 2 that would admit to feeling that way about their Home game with VMI, but that’s it...and those 1 or 2 would probably be Freshmen walk-ons.

To think that Chattanooga, ETSU, Mercer, Samford, The Citadel...AND...maybe even...WCU aren’t each realistically capable of coming out of the SoCon WARS with a 2-loss SoCon record & grabbing a share of the SoCon Championship this year is as silly as a Football Team having a 1’-0” 15 pound mascot!!!

No one said anything about the FCS, it's about the Socon. With 6 Socon titles since 2003, we are the Bama of the Socon. Given that Furman curbstomped us, not unlike how the Tigers handled the Tide last year, that's not a terrible metaphor either.

This "The Socon is wide open every year" talk gets us hype in the preseason, but looking back at the actual fruits of the conference, much of that is just hype.

The pattern of 2-3 teams (+ revolving fourth is pretty consistent throughout socon history).

It used to be Georgia Southern, Furman, App State and Wofford
Then it was App State, Wofford and Elon
Then it was Wofford, App state, and Georgia southern.
Then it was flux in 2013
Then it was Chattanooga by themselves
Then it was Chattanooga, citadel and *kinda Western*
Then it was Chattanooga, Citadel, Wofford, and Samford
Then it was Samford, Wofford, and Furman
And last year it was Wofford, Furman, ETSU and Samford

And this year we don't know, but before App state/GSU left (2013) and since 2015, there's not high turnover at the very top. Maybe in the second tier, in positions 3-5, but that's it. My money is on Samford and ETSU falling because if you look at teams falling off (Wofford 2013, Chattanooga 2017, Elon 2011, etc) it's usually because a big playmaker, usually on offense graduates or because a coach leaves. But the teams that keep those playmakers and coaches are in pretty good shape, usually.

[FUBeAR]

No one said anything about the FCS, it's about the Socon. With 6 Socon titles since 2003, we are the Bama of the Socon. Given that Furman curbstomped us, not unlike how the Tigers handled the Tide last year, that's not a terrible metaphor either.

This "The Socon is wide open every year" talk gets us hype in the preseason, but looking back at the actual fruits of the conference, much of that is just hype.

The pattern of 2-3 teams (+ revolving fourth is pretty consistent throughout socon history).

It used to be Georgia Southern, Furman, App State and Wofford
Then it was App State, Wofford and Elon
Then it was Wofford, App state, and Georgia southern.
Then it was flux in 2013
Then it was Chattanooga by themselves
Then it was Chattanooga, citadel and *kinda Western*
Then it was Chattanooga, Citadel, Wofford, and Samford
Then it was Samford, Wofford, and Furman
And last year it was Wofford, Furman, ETSU and Samford

And this year we don't know, but before App state/GSU left (2013) and since 2015, there's not high turnover at the very top. Maybe in the second tier, in positions 3-5, but that's it. My money is on Samford and ETSU falling because if you look at teams falling off (Wofford 2013, Chattanooga 2017, Elon 2011, etc) it's usually because a big playmaker, usually on offense graduates or because a coach leaves. But the teams that keep those playmakers and coaches are in pretty good shape, usually.
Yeah - I’m talking IN the SoCon. You go do the ‘ancient’ historical legwork if you want to prove me wrong, but those SoCon Teams before 2014 SAILED through the SoCon except in games against each other.

Since 2016, including CIT’s undefeated SoCon season that year, no SoCon Champions have sailed through the rest of the league.



2016 Citadel vs.
Result
Diff


at Mercer
W 24–23
+1


Furman
W 19–14
+5


Chattanooga
W 22–14
+8


at Wofford
W 24–21 OT
0


Samford
W 37–34 OT
0


CIT was, on the average, 2.8 points better than the other SoCon Teams (sans VMI, WCU, and 1st year SoCon Team ETSU) in 60 minute games.

Here’s another...better...example...



2017 Wofford vs.
Result
Diff


Furman
W 24–23
+1


at Mercer
W 28–27
+1


Western Carolina
W 35–28 OT
0


The Citadel
W 20–16
+4


Samford
L 21–24
-3


at ETSU
W 31–24
+7


Chattanooga
W 24–21 2OT
0



Wofford was, on the average, 1.43 points better than the other SoCon Teams (sans VMI) in 60 minute games.

Oh...and, of course, last year...



2018 ETSU vs.
Result
Diff


at VMI
W 27–24
+3


Furman
W 29–27
+2


Chattanooga
W 17–14
+3


at The Citadel
W 26–23
+3


Wofford
L 17–30
-13


WCU
W 45–43 3OT
0


at Mercer
W 21–18
+3


Samford
L 27–38
-11



ETSU was, on the average, 1.25 points WORSE than the other SoCon Teams (including VMI & WCU!) in 60 minute games.


Always WARS & always (except 2016) unexpected losses, with any Team (except VMI...and maybe WCU) having a realistic chance at winning at least a share of the SoCon Championship. Same as it will be this year!

No reason at all that any of those other 5 Teams - Chattanooga, ETSU, Mercer, Samford, and The Citadel - can’t pull a 2016 CIT or a 2017 WOF or a 2018 ETSU and claim, at least a share of, the SoCon Championship! You’re lying to yourself (and to the readers) if you think otherwise.

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

I think you will see ETSU regress to the mean.

When you dive into the numbers a bit, the Bucs really outperformed expectations in 2018. They had a negative point differential and weren't among the conference leaders on either offense or defense.

Last season, the Bucs won 6 SoCon games. Surprisingly, though, they didn't win a single conference game by more than 3 points. They won 4 games by 3 points and 2 games by 2 points. I think it is fair to say that ETSU never looked clearly the better team in any conference game they played.

Sometimes you see these types of seasons - where a team isn't particularly dominant in any area but manages to win games they probably should have lost. Wofford had a similar season in 2017. Furman won a title in 2013 doing the same.

As an ETSU alumnus, I would like to respond to ETSU's performance. I was quite possibly the only poster on this forum who said last year that ETSU was going to have a winning season and guess what they did. ETSU outperformed MY expectations last season when they not only eight games but made the playoffs, where they took Jacksonville St to the limit (leading at certain points in the game) before losing.

As far as last season was concerned, Sanders got the job done with recruits from the Torbush er(ror). ETSU football will be built with players that Randy Sanders is bringing in. Let's face it, he's been around historically successful programs (see Tennessee and Florida St, where he won FBS national titles as an assistant). I must remind you that the last I-AA/FCS head coach with the resume comparable to Randy Sanders was none other than the Bald Eagle himself, Erk Russell. His body of work at Georgia Southern was well documented. I dare Sanders to turn in that kind of performance.

[gofurman]

As an ETSU alumnus, I would like to respond to ETSU's performance. I was quite possibly the only poster on this forum who said last year that ETSU was going to have a winning season and guess what they did. ETSU outperformed MY expectations last season when they not only eight games but made the playoffs, where they took Jacksonville St to the limit (leading at certain points in the game) before losing.

As far as last season was concerned, Sanders got the job done with recruits from the Torbush er(ror). ETSU football will be built with players that Randy Sanders is bringing in. Let's face it, he's been around historically successful programs (see Tennessee and Florida St, where he won FBS national titles as an assistant). I must remind you that the last I-AA/FCS head coach with the resume comparable to Randy Sanders was none other than the Bald Eagle himself, Erk Russell. His body of work at Georgia Southern was well documented. I dare Sanders to turn in that kind of performance.

I agree. Number one player - the COACH. Hopefully we are seeing that at Furman. It's great for SoCon ranking if ETSU is too.

So whether or not last year was a little lucky (I think we all admit it was a little lucky for ETSU ) most of wish you nothing but the best in general. It would be good to have more teams of top 25 caliber. Win every game except vs Furman.. .LOL

As with any coach, even if he can coach, you can't win without recruits. I know he inherited Nasir Player (maybe best DL in SoCon this year) and some good DBs (Robinson etc). I mean, he has only had a year. Did Sanders bring in Quay, the great RB? that would be a good sign.

by year 2 we will know if he is a good coach.. appears that way so far. takes until year 3 or 4 to know the total of coaching and recruiting.



*Actually that's kind of interesting now that I think about it. The three co-champs last year (Wofford, ETSU, Furman) all have relatively new coaches. Furman's is the longest tenure at 2.5 years (he came in December I think?)... Clay Hendrix. He inherited a pretty thin team. Wofford has Conklin in 2nd year. Inherited some great players to be honest. Done a good job. This year he has great players and a ton of seniors. Next year will tell us more but so far he looks pretty good. ETSU Sanders in second year. I thought he inherited less but now they have Nasir Player and a ton of DBs as first team all conference - maybe he coached them up better than prior guy.

In all three cases we need another year or three. Just using this as an example, not pushing FU. Bobby Johnson led us to a national title appearance but here were his records:
'94 - 3 - 8
'95 - 6 - 5
'96 - 9 - 4
'97 - 7 - 4
'98 - 5 - 6
'99 - 9 - 3 SoCon Champs, FCS Playoffs
'00 - 9 - 3, FCS Playoffs
'01 - 12 -3 , SoCon CHamps, National Title game (loss to Montana in Title game)

So you can see a quick move ahead w coaching and then there were some bumps w injuries etc. but by year 3 you felt you knew the trajectory. Didn't have any idea he would take us to title game but we quickly went from a 3 win team to 9 wins in 3 years..

I always wait for year 3 or 4 so we have some data

[TheValleyRaider]

Certainly no expert on the PL, but my distant impression is that Colgate ran away with the Championship last year & returns a lot of players, leaving the rest (except Bucknell & Lafayette...and maybe Georgetown (based on history))...so Lehigh, Fordham, and Holy Cross...playing for 2nd place.

Is that bad wrong?

Not bad wrong, but not really correct either. Based on the 2-deep from the NDSU game, Colgate returns 5 starters on offense, 3 on defense, and the kicker

QB and O-line return pretty strong this year, but skill position players need replacing (top 3 WR and starting RB graduated, though the #2 RB was named PL 1st Team in preseason). Defense returns 3 starters, one each on DL (Wheeler), LB (Ioanilli), and DB (Daramy-Swaray).

The gap between Colgate and the rest of the League should be smaller this year, how much remains to be seen. The rest have something to prove.

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

As with any coach, even if he can coach, you can't win without recruits. I know he inherited Nasir Player (maybe best DL in SoCon this year) and some good DBs (Robinson etc). I mean, he has only had a year. Did Sanders bring in Quay, the great RB? that would be a good sign.


Holmes is a redshirt sophomore, so Torbush brought him in.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Not bad wrong, but not really correct either. Based on the 2-deep from the NDSU game, Colgate returns 5 starters on offense, 3 on defense, and the kicker

QB and O-line return pretty strong this year, but skill position players need replacing (top 3 WR and starting RB graduated, though the #2 RB was named PL 1st Team in preseason). Defense returns 3 starters, one each on DL (Wheeler), LB (Ioanilli), and DB (Daramy-Swaray).

The gap between Colgate and the rest of the League should be smaller this year, how much remains to be seen. The rest have something to prove.

Colgate is going to take their lumps in the OOC this year. They were very good last year but preyed on a horrifically weak schedule. Outside of Breneman and the OL there's serious question marks on offensive. The WR group doesn't return a single guy who caught a pass last year. Mathews/Twyman and Cox are solid RB's but they're not a 5th year James Holland.

I think 'Gate is looking at a 8-4/7-5 type season in 2019.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Not bad wrong, but not really correct either. Based on the 2-deep from the NDSU game, Colgate returns 5 starters on offense, 3 on defense, and the kicker

QB and O-line return pretty strong this year, but skill position players need replacing (top 3 WR and starting RB graduated, though the #2 RB was named PL 1st Team in preseason). Defense returns 3 starters, one each on DL (Wheeler), LB (Ioanilli), and DB (Daramy-Swaray).

The gap between Colgate and the rest of the League should be smaller this year, how much remains to be seen. The rest have something to prove.

you're right about Colgate returnees according to keepratings site: http://www.keepratings.net/#

They are 124th out of 126 in returnee starters.



Team
Conf
Off Starts
Rush
Pass
Rec
OL
Def Starts
DL
LB
DB
Total
Tot Starts
Total rank
Playoff Contender


Colgate
PL
4.4
65
134
17
3
3.3
12%
9%
12%
34%
7.7
124
Yes

[fmftballmgr]

The OVC is still JSU but there are teams getting closer them. We are getting more competive with in the league but not for sure where we compare nationally.