AGS Poll Results - WEEK 0 POLL - 2019 SEASON

[AGSPoll]

7/29/2019



Rank
Team:
Points
Votes


1
North Dakota State Bison
2037
59


2
Eastern Washington Eagles
1902
8


3
James Madison Dukes
1888
12


4
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
1836
5


5
UC Davis Aggies
1818



6
Maine Black Bears
1524



7
Weber State Wildcats
1456



8
Wofford Terriers
1420



9
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
1320



10
Nicholls State Colonels
1183



11
Kennesaw State Owls
1118



12
Montana State Bobcats
949



13
Towson Tigers
929



14
Illinois State Redbirds
872



15
Northern Iowa Panthers
780



16
Colgate Raiders
691



17
Furman Paladins
639



18
Elon Phoenix
604



19
Indiana State Sycamores
510



20
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
441



21
Princeton Tigers
376



22
Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
367



23
Central Arkansas Bears
346



24
North Carolina A&T Aggies
339



25
Montana Grizzlies
287















26
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
226



27
Stony Brook Seawolves
206



28
Sam Houston State Bearkats
196



29
Dartmouth Big Green
160



30
Duquesne Dukes
93



31
Yale Bulldogs
85



32
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
75



33
Chattanooga Mocs
74



34
Incarnate Word Cardinals
71



35
New Hampshire Wildcats
52



36
San Diego Toreros
52



37
Alcorn State Braves
47



38
Lamar Cardinals
40



39
Samford Bulldogs
33



40
Western Illinois Leathernecks
29

[JSUSoutherner]

I'm triggered.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

See how this looks come December......

1: North Dakota State Bison
2: UC Davis Aggies
3: Eastern Washington Eagles
4: James Madison Dukes
5: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
6: Nicholls State Colonels
7: Elon Phoenix
8: Illinois State Redbirds
9: Wofford Terriers
10: Montana State Bobcats
11: Maine Black Bears
12: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
13: Weber State Wildcats
14: Princeton Tigers
15: Towson Tigers
16: Kennesaw State Owls
17: Indiana State Sycamores
18: Central Arkansas Bears
19: Colgate Raiders
20: New Hampshire Wildcats
21: Yale Bulldogs
22: Furman Paladins
23: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
24: North Carolina A&T Aggies
25: Northern Iowa Panthers

[JSUSoutherner]

See how this looks come December......

1: North Dakota State Bison
2: UC Davis Aggies
3: Eastern Washington Eagles
4: James Madison Dukes
5: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
6: Nicholls State Colonels
7: Elon Phoenix
8: Illinois State Redbirds
9: Wofford Terriers
10: Montana State Bobcats
11: Maine Black Bears
12: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
13: Weber State Wildcats
14: Princeton Tigers
15: Towson Tigers
16: Kennesaw State Owls
17: Indiana State Sycamores
18: Central Arkansas Bears
19: Colgate Raiders
20: New Hampshire Wildcats
21: Yale Bulldogs
22: Furman Paladins
23: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
24: North Carolina A&T Aggies
25: Northern Iowa Panthers

EKU?

What are you doing, man?

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

EKU?

What are you doing, man?

For whatever reason you have an ax to grind with EKU. I'll hedge my bets they're a little better than last year.... xsmiley_wix

[JSUSoutherner]

For whatever reason you have an ax to grind with EKU. I'll hedge my bets they're a little better than last year.... xsmiley_wix

Because they were terriblllleeeeeee.

Better than last year is still bad.

You may as well have ranked Lehigh.

[IBleedYellow]

Pre-season polls are a thing.


That's all I got.

[JSUSoutherner]

Pre-season polls are a thing.


That's all I got.

You ranked them too high.

[Professor Chaos]

Here's the Wedge blog post for the 2019 preseason poll: http://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-preseason-2019-top-25-results/

A lot of familiar names in the poll but there was quite a bit of churn amongst the placement those teams. Now let the games begin so we have some real football to influence our votes!

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm at work and can't pull up my ranking, but this is not a bad poll. The only real objection I have is that UNI is too low.

I was tempted to vote SDSU at #1 above NDSU because of how many they bring back and how good they were last year, but you can't bet against the Bison.

[Bisonator]

You ranked them too high.
It'll sort itself out snowflake.:D

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Here's the Wedge blog post for the 2019 preseason poll: http://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-preseason-2019-top-25-results/

A lot of familiar names in the poll but there was quite a bit of churn amongst the placement those teams. Now let the games begin so we have some real football to influence our votes!

Man, you do a great job on those Prof. Good read.

[Mike296]

Hello Mike296,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/24/2019 11:44:20

Your vote is listed below.


1: North Dakota State Bison
2: James Madison Dukes
3: UC Davis Aggies
4: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
5: Weber State Wildcats
6: Nicholls State Colonels
7: Elon Phoenix
8: Furman Paladins
9: Montana Grizzlies
10: Eastern Washington Eagles
11: Wofford Terriers
12: Towson Tigers
13: Kennesaw State Ohhhwls
14: Western Illinois Leathernecks
15: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
16: Illinois State Redbirds
17: Sam Houston State Bearkats
18: North Carolina A&T Aggies
19: Idaho Vandals
20: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
21: Northern Iowa Panthers
22: South Dakota Coyotes
23: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
24: San Diego Toreros
25: Alcorn State Braves

Mike296

The Most Significant Win:
The Most Significant Loss:
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Ohio Valley Conference

[Reign of Terrier]

I will say this about Wofford for future voters:

>We bring back 16ish starters, including 9 on offense, including the entire OL, 2 all conference DL, the entire linebacking corp and two preseason all conference pass defenders
>We're coming off 3 consecutive playoff spots and 2 consecutive socon championships
> We were #1 in total offense and defense and #1 in scoring offense and defense (in the socon, of course)
> we had our best statistical years in both offense and defense (when considered together) in a decade (ya know, back when we beat Montana in Missoula and when we beat App two weeks after they beat Michigan)
>Our offense is continuing to evolve past just running the option (which is key)
>We bring back pretty much all the key coaches and coordinators.

Obviously, I'm biased. Obviously, this is NDSU's subdivision and we're just living in it until someone knocks them off. Obviously, Wofford has had trouble getting past the quarterfinals and we had a couple head-scratching games against Furman and Samford last year.

But let me tell you, there may be something special about Wofford this year. I ranked us at #5, when I'm usually inclined to rank us in the 8-12 range. A lot of teams like Maine and James Madison have some question marks due to coaching continuity, and that's why I ranked them ahead of them.

Wofford could easily start at least 4-0 (Samford is a challenge in the second game of the year, but we should beat VMI, Gardner Webb, and SC State), and from there we have a pretty favorable schedule week-to-week, where I don't think it's likely we sleep on any one team. We could be undefeated going into Clemson.

So, that's my blurb for Wofford. I'm a homer, and take that into consideration, but I think this could be a special year.

[MTfan4life]

Because they were terriblllleeeeeee.

Better than last year is still bad.

You may as well have ranked Lehigh.

They finished 7-4 AND beat SEMO. That's not terrible. Sure, they sucked against Jacksonville state. However, using that logic Jacksonville State could be judged based solely on their blowout loss to SEMO.

[TheRevSFA]

UCA get an actual what the **** from me

[Daytripper]

It's preseason, so it's all a crapshoot....

1: North Dakota State Bison
2: UC Davis Aggies
3: James Madison Dukes
4: Maine Black Bears
5: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
6: Wofford Terriers
7: Eastern Washington Eagles
8: Nicholls State Colonels
9: Illinois State Redbirds
10: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
11: Towson Tigers
12: Central Arkansas Bears
13: Kennesaw State Owls
14: Weber State Wildcats
15: Montana State Bobcats
16: Indiana State Sycamores
17: Elon Phoenix
18: Sam Houston State Bearkats
19: Colgate Raiders
20: Alcorn State Braves
21: Furman Paladins
22: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
23: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
24: Abilene Christian Wildcats
25: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks

[Preferred Walk-On]

Just so this is on-the-record for future generations to see:

Hello Preferred Walk-On,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/26/2019 7:04:42

Your vote is listed below.

1: North Dakota State Bison
2: James Madison Dukes
3: Eastern Washington Eagles
4: UC Davis Aggies
5: Wofford Terriers
6: Maine Black Bears
7: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
8: Nicholls State Colonels
9: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
10: Illinois State Redbirds
11: Weber State Wildcats
12: Furman Paladins
13: Indiana State Sycamores
14: Central Arkansas Bears
15: Northern Iowa Panthers
16: Towson Tigers
17: Montana State Bobcats
18: Montana Grizzlies
19: North Carolina A&T Aggies
20: New Hampshire Wildcats
21: Kennesaw State Owls
22: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
23: Dartmouth Big Green
24: Sam Houston State Bearkats
25: Colgate Raiders

Preferred Walk-On

The Most Significant Win: -----------------------------
The Most Significant Loss: -----------------------------
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Missouri Valley Football Conference

[Preferred Walk-On]

UCA get an actual what the **** from me

Rev, is that a good what the **** or bad what the ****?

[BEAR]

UCA get an actual what the **** from me

Interesting. Dare to expand upon your statement? xlolx

[Preferred Walk-On]

Man, you do a great job on those Prof. Good read.

I second this!

[Daytripper]

Rev, is that a good what the **** or bad what the ****?

It's a bad what the ****, in my opinion. UCA will be really good this year. Top 10 good eventually.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

It's a bad what the ****, in my opinion. UCA will be really good this year. Top 10 good eventually.

UCA at Nicholls 10/5 should be one of the top 5-10 games of the year. I'm bullish on NSU but I can certainly see the love for the Bears. UCA has Hawaii then a bye before heading to Thibodaux. NSU has a very winnable FBS game the week before against Texas State

The Southland has 3-4 teams that could make waves nationally.

[TheKingpin28]

1: North Dakota State Bison
2: Eastern Washington Eagles
3: UC Davis Aggies
4: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
5: James Madison Dukes
6: Maine Black Bears
7: Wofford Terriers
8: Weber State Wildcats
9: Nicholls State Colonels
10: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
11: Kennesaw State Owls
12: Colgate Raiders
13: Dartmouth Big Green
14: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
15: Central Arkansas Bears
16: Northern Iowa Panthers
17: Montana State Bobcats
18: North Carolina A&T Aggies
19: Princeton Tigers
20: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
21: Indiana State Sycamores
22: Towson Tigers
23: Elon Phoenix
24: Montana Grizzlies
25: East Tennessee State Buccaneers

I guess people are not high on Dartmouth or UCA (which returns their 2 QBs who were injured within 5 minutes of each other) and are extremely high on a Towson team that hit a road block against Duquesne. I understand this is a preseason poll, but I guess that Towson rating caused me to raise an eyebrow.

[Daytripper]

UCA at Nicholls 10/5 should be one of the top 5-10 games of the year. I'm bullish on NSU but I can certainly see the love for the Bears. UCA has Hawaii then a bye before heading to Thibodaux. NSU has a very winnable FBS game the week before against Texas State

The Southland has 3-4 teams that could make waves nationally.

Agree. After so many years of having 1 or 2 elite teams and everybody else being bottom feeders, the Southland is moving towards, dare I say, top-heavy. Nicholls, UCA, ACU, SHSU and UIW all have a chance to make a splash. And don't sleep on SELA or McNeese. You can sleep on Lamar, though.

[Schism55]

Swing and a miss on voting in this...ooof

[dbackjon]

Hello dbackjon,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/24/2019 19:09:19

Your vote is listed below.


1: North Dakota State Bison
2: James Madison Dukes
3: UC Davis Aggies
4: Maine Black Bears
5: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
6: Eastern Washington Eagles
7: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
8: Towson Tigers
9: Illinois State Redbirds
10: Wofford Terriers
11: Weber State Wildcats
12: Nicholls State Colonels
13: Montana State Bobcats
14: Elon Phoenix
15: Indiana State Sycamores
16: Furman Paladins
17: Central Arkansas Bears
18: Chattanooga Mocs
19: Kennesaw State Owls
20: Yale Bulldogs
21: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
22: The Citadel Bulldogs
23: Incarnate Word Cardinals
24: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
25: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

[Preferred Walk-On]

Swing and a miss on voting in this...ooof

Any place in particular? My thoughts were that perhaps Kennesaw and Colgate were a bit too high, as it is possible to be the best team in a conference and yet, not a top 25 team. However, it is preseason, and therefore, I would be hard-pressed to be very critical of, let alone include an "ooof" for, the voting. xpeacex

[clenz]

I want to ask this of so many people - what's the infatuation with Illinois State?

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Swing and a miss on voting in this...ooof

Man, how? I mean I sent not one but two emails on it and two extra just before it alerting to other information.

[cx500d]

I voted. My poll was deemed correct.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Preferred Walk-On]

Man, how? I mean I sent not one but two emails on it and two extra just before it alerting to other information.

Ah, I misunderstood the "swing and a miss". My apologies.

[JSUSoutherner]

They finished 7-4 AND beat SEMO. That's not terrible. Sure, they sucked against Jacksonville state. However, using that logic Jacksonville State could be judged based solely on their blowout loss to SEMO.

Sure they beat SEMO but their six other wins were:

UTM (2-9)
Morehead State (3-8)
EIU (3-8)
APSU (5-6)
RMU (2-9)
TTU (1-10)

[POD Knows]

1: North Dakota State Bison
2: UC Davis Aggies
3: James Madison Dukes
4: Eastern Washington Eagles
5: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
6: Illinois State Redbirds
7: Maine Black Bears
8: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
9: Weber State Wildcats
10: Montana State Bobcats
11: Nicholls State Colonels
12: Wofford Terriers
13: Kennesaw State Owls
14: Northern Iowa Panthers
15: Stony Brook Seawolves
16: Central Arkansas Bears
17: Colgate Raiders
18: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
19: Indiana State Sycamores
20: Elon Phoenix
21: Montana Grizzlies
22: Chattanooga Mocs
23: Alcorn State Braves
24: Sam Houston State Bearkats
25: Towson Tigers

[clenz]

Sure they beat SEMO but their six other wins were:

UTM (2-9)
Morehead State (3-8)
EIU (3-8)
APSU (5-6)
RMU (2-9)
TTU (1-10)
Where did you rank Indiana State?

Went and looked at what you sent me

You had Indiana State at 16

Here were Indiana State's wins

Now....let's compare you going in on him for having EKU in the 20's when you had this at 16


6-4 against D1s last year.
Wins were
3-9 EIU
2-9 SIU by 3
4-7 Youngstown State
4-7 USD in 3 OT
5-6 WIU
6-5 ISUr

Loss to 2 conference win Missouri State

There isn't a single conference win over a team that finished over .500 in conference play there.

You might want too/need to apologize for your bad take and/or for voting for Indiana State at 16

[POD Knows]

I want to ask this of so many people - what's the infatuation with Illinois State?They were the second best team the Bison played last year, IMHO, they have a lot coming back and should be better this year but who really knows. I have them at 6 in my poll because I believe that they are better than Maine, Weber State, Jacksonville State and others. Now, that being said, they will probably choke and miss the playoffs again.

[JSUSoutherner]

Where did you rank Indiana State?

Went and looked at what you sent me

You had Indiana State at 16

Here were Indiana State's wins

Now....let's compare you going in on him for having EKU in the 20's when you had this at 16


6-4 against D1s last year.
Wins were
3-9 EIU
2-9 SIU by 3
4-7 Youngstown State
4-7 USD in 3 OT
5-6 WIU
6-5 ISUr

Loss to 2 conference win Missouri State

There isn't a single conference win over a team that finished over .500 in conference play there.

You might want too/need to apologize for your bad take and/or for voting for Indiana State at 16Indiana State would kill EKU.

Sent from my Galaxy S9+ using Tapatalk

[Preferred Walk-On]

I want to ask this of so many people - what's the infatuation with Illinois State?

First, I think infatuation might be a bit strong; however, for me, it had to do with the returning starting QB (stability at this position?).

I see that ISUr and UNI are neck-and-neck in the poll. What is your opinion of the better team (did not see your poll posted)? As a Bison fan, I know that UNI always brings it, and I (as does our SID, it appears) probably rate them higher than some on average simply because of this. Just not quite sure if UNI is going to be better than ISUr this year, but you would probably know better than I.

Looking forward to the Homecoming matchup with UNI in the FargoDome this year. In fact, this is the one game that my wife absolutely refuses to miss every single year, because UNI is always so competitive with NDSU.

[clenz]

They were the second best team the Bison played last year, IMHO, they have a lot coming back and should be better this year but who really knows. I have them at 6 in my poll because I believe that they are better than Maine, Weber State, Jacksonville State and others. Now, that being said, they will probably choke and miss the playoffs again.
I......don't.....get.....it


Since their felonious drug dealer left campus they haven't won more than 6 games.

People sit here and bang UNI to death because "inconsistent and flop in the ooc" and whatever else yet the same people have this raging hard on for Illinois State year after year.

The last 3 years they are 6-5 6-5 6-6

Their conference wins last year were YSU WIU and SIU - they lost to MSU. OOC wins were sub D1, 3 win EIU and then an Colorado State team that wouldn't finish top 40 in the FCS

If you look at games against only scholarship D1s the last 3 years they are .500 or a game below actually.

They had 3 Valley wins - zero ****ing chance they were the second best team NDSU played last year - even in conference only play.

At some point the hype from that magical 2 year blip is going to wear off to people. They were an average on their best year program before the Felon and Robison showed up. They rode them for 2 years. They are gone and they are back to average.

07 4-7
08 3-8
09 6-5
10 5-5
11 7-4
12 9-4
13 5-6
14 13-2
15 10-3
16 6-6
17 6-5
18 6-5


At what point do we stop giving them all kind of hype for those two years? For bringing people back (which they do and brag up every year)?

Maybe this year is different

Maybe they are just an average football team with decent talent but no ability to do anything with it

[clenz]

Indiana State would kill EKU.

Sent from my Galaxy S9+ using Tapatalk
****ing nope.

[clenz]

First, I think infatuation might be a bit strong; however, for me, it had to do with the returning starting QB (stability at this position?).

I see that ISUr and UNI are neck-and-neck in the poll. What is your opinion of the better team (did not see your poll posted)? As a Bison fan, I know that UNI always brings it, and I (as does our SID, it appears) probably rate them higher than some on average simply because of this. Just not quite sure if UNI is going to be better than ISUr this year, but you would probably know better than I.

Looking forward to the Homecoming matchup with UNI in the FargoDome this year. In fact, this is the one game that my wife absolutely refuses to miss every single year, because UNI is always so competitive with NDSU.
UNI has nothing to do with it. I wouldn't even waste your effort typing UNI in that discussion anymore.

[POD Knows]

I......don't.....get.....it


Since their felonious drug dealer left campus they haven't won more than 6 games.

People sit here and bang UNI to death because "inconsistent and flop in the ooc" and whatever else yet the same people have this raging hard on for Illinois State year after year.

The last 3 years they are 6-5 6-5 6-6

Their conference wins last year were YSU WIU and SIU - they lost to MSU. OOC wins were sub D1, 3 win EIU and then an Colorado State team that wouldn't finish top 40 in the FCS

If you look at games against only scholarship D1s the last 3 years they are .500 or a game below actually.

They had 3 Valley wins - zero ****ing chance they were the second best team NDSU played last year - even in conference only play.

At some point the hype from that magical 2 year blip is going to wear off to people. They were an average on their best year program before the Felon and Robison showed up. They rode them for 2 years. They are gone and they are back to average.

07 4-7
08 3-8
09 6-5
10 5-5
11 7-4
12 9-4
13 5-6
14 13-2
15 10-3
16 6-6
17 6-5
18 6-5


At what point do we stop giving them all kind of hype for those two years? For bringing people back (which they do and brag up every year)?

Maybe this year is different

Maybe they are just an average football team with decent talent but no ability to do anything with itI am telling you what I saw, they played us tough and physical in our own building but they do under perform year after year and if I was a betting man, I would bet that they will probably finish out of the top 10 by the end of the year. There are a few teams ahead of ISUr in this poll that would probably get curb stomped on a normal day by ISUr but who knows. Once you get past 5 or 6 in this poll it is mostly drawing names out of a hat.

[Daytripper]

I am telling you what I saw, they played us tough and physical in our own building but they do under perform year after year and if I was a betting man, I would bet that they will probably finish out of the top 10 by the end of the year. There are a few dealers ahead of ISUr in this poll that would probably get curb stomped on a normal day by ISUr but who knows. Once you get past 5 or 6 in this poll it is mostly drawing names out of a hat.

^^^ #AGSPollTruth

[JALMOND]

No luv for Portland State?:)xlolxxthumbsupx

That's OK. No luv from me either.

Seriously, good looking poll for preseason here.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

^^^ #AGSPollTruth

In many ways! It's almost like a confidence poll of relevancy after the top 3-6 teams. I think FCS/1-AA was a little deeper 10-15 years ago. Or maybe NDSU has skewed things so much that I believe it was....

[Preferred Walk-On]

UNI has nothing to do with it. I wouldn't even waste your effort typing UNI in that discussion anymore.

Was the question that difficult to answer? Where UNI has to do with it is that if you don't believe either ISUr or UNI should be ranked, then sure, ISUr should be much lower in your mind...and the discussion could end there.

If you believe that UNI should be ranked where they are, I was then wondering where ISUr should be ranked. Why does this need to be contentious with you? You posed the question about infatuation...I am posing the question about relative comparison for understanding your take on the rankings. That is all. This is a preseason top 25 without a single game played, and I agree with you on many points about the fact it is quite a bit of "guessing". I tried to provide you a short explanation for my reasoning, and I was hopeful that you could afford me the same courtesy.

[clenz]

Was the question that difficult to answer? Where UNI has to do with it is that if you don't believe either ISUr or UNI should be ranked, then sure, ISUr should be much lower in your mind...and the discussion could end there.

If you believe that UNI should be ranked where they are, I was then wondering where ISUr should be ranked. Why does this need to be contentious with you? You posed the question about infatuation...I am posing the question about relative comparison for understanding your take on the rankings. That is all. This is a preseason top 25 without a single game played, and I agree with you on many points about the fact it is quite a bit of "guessing". I tried to provide you a short explanation for my reasoning, and I was hopeful that you could afford me the same courtesy.
UNI being in the late teens is entirely different than another team - who has been far worse in conference record and on field performance - the last 3 years being in the top 10.

You only brought UNI up as that is where I went to school. You could have used any school. You specifically picked one that, like the others, had nothing about my issue with the infatuation with ISUr has to do to with UNI. None. Hell, if you'd have read the forum the last 3 years you'd find no one who has been harder on UNI than i have.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Sure they beat SEMO but their six other wins were:

UTM (2-9)
Morehead State (3-8)
EIU (3-8)
APSU (5-6)
RMU (2-9)
TTU (1-10)

How many wins did you have out of that grouping? I guess they may or may not be T25 but as you well know these sorts of arguments can be made in several different directions.

[JSUSoutherner]

How many wins did you have out of that grouping? I guess they may or may not be T25 but as you well know these sorts of arguments can be made in several different directions.

Who? JSU?

We've won 40 of our last 41 OVC games. So... I'd say we've done pretty well in that sector.

Our worst loss in the past 5 years would either be SEMO or NC A&T. One of those teams won a playoff game, the other won the Celebration Bowl. So if you're attempting to make some JSU-EKU comparison, there isn't one. Not to mention we beat EKU 56-7 last season at their place.

I don't need a JSU-EKU comparison to show EKU is bad. EKU's play speaks for itself.

[hoidOfYolen]

Just so this is on-the-record for future generations to see:

Hello Preferred Walk-On,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/26/2019 7:04:42

Your vote is listed below.

1: North Dakota State Bison
2: James Madison Dukes
3: Eastern Washington Eagles
4: UC Davis Aggies
5: Wofford Terriers
6: Maine Black Bears
7: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
8: Nicholls State Colonels
9: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
10: Illinois State Redbirds
11: Weber State Wildcats
12: Furman Paladins
13: Indiana State Sycamores
14: Central Arkansas Bears
15: Northern Iowa Panthers
16: Towson Tigers
17: Montana State Bobcats
18: Montana Grizzlies
19: North Carolina A&T Aggies
20: New Hampshire Wildcats
21: Kennesaw State Owls
22: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
23: Dartmouth Big Green
24: Sam Houston State Bearkats
25: Colgate Raiders

Preferred Walk-On

The Most Significant Win: -----------------------------
The Most Significant Loss: -----------------------------
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Missouri Valley Football Conference

I feel like the only reason Elon is ranked so low in this poll is because people forgot about them. Did you forget about Elon? Or did you rank NC A&T, Furman, and Central Arkansas ahead of them?

[Preferred Walk-On]

UNI being in the late teens is entirely different than another team - who has been far worse in conference record and on field performance - the last 3 years being in the top 10.

You only brought UNI up as that is where I went to school. You could have used any school. You specifically picked one that, like the others, had nothing about my issue with the infatuation with ISUr has to do to with UNI. None. Hell, if you'd have read the forum the last 3 years you'd find no one who has been harder on UNI than i have.

No, I get it...I have read your signature (sarcasm). I know you are hard and fair when it comes to UNI. That, and the fact they are ranked 14 and 15, is precisely why I picked those teams for comparison this year (not last year, the year before, or any other year for that matter, and that goes for ISUr as well)...you are an authority on UNI, and ISUr is right in UNI's backyard. You seem to imply that because ISUr had two good years and has otherwise been around .500, that they cannot possibly have a good year this year. You do not know that, or perhaps you do, and are just unwilling to share why you think ISUr is not going to be very good (at least bottom of top 25 or worse based on your post).

The reason I picked UNI for comparison has absolutely nothing to do with you personally, and I appreciate your back-handed comment (sarcasm). Going back now to re-read the past 3 years. (sarcasm, again). You may now have the last word (one final sarcasm).

[Mike296]

Surprised nobody is complaining about my poll like is per usual. Did I actually do a decent job or is it really just that much of a crapshoot this season?

[Derby City Duke]

Pretty comfortable with:

my Top 10
my 23-25 didn't make the preseason poll
after throwing out the bottom 3, only 5 of my picks were more than 4 off the AGS poll

Not comfortable with:

11 - 25...


Delaware, Princeton, and Stony Brook are pretty high on my watch list. xthumbsupx


Hello Derby City Duke,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/28/2019 21:31:02

Your vote is listed below.


1: North Dakota State Bison
2: Eastern Washington Eagles
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: James Madison Dukes
5: UC Davis Aggies
6: Nicholls State Colonels
7: Wofford Terriers
8: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
9: Towson Tigers
10: Weber State Wildcats
11: Northern Iowa Panthers
12: Kennesaw State Owls
13: Maine Black Bears
14: Montana Grizzlies
15: North Carolina A&T Aggies
16: Elon Phoenix
17: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
18: Montana State Bobcats
19: Colgate Raiders
20: Illinois State Redbirds
21: Furman Paladins
22: Central Arkansas Bears
23: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
24: Duquesne Dukes
25: Alcorn State Braves

Derby City Duke

The Most Significant Win:
The Most Significant Loss:
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Colonial Athletic Association

[Professor Chaos]

Surprised nobody is complaining about my poll like is per usual. Did I actually do a decent job or is it really just that much of a crapshoot this season?
Pretty tough to nitpick a preseason poll ballot. Remind me in a couple months and I'll tear it apart for you. :D

[Reign of Terrier]

Where did you rank Indiana State?

Went and looked at what you sent me

You had Indiana State at 16

Here were Indiana State's wins

Now....let's compare you going in on him for having EKU in the 20's when you had this at 16


6-4 against D1s last year.
Wins were
3-9 EIU
2-9 SIU by 3
4-7 Youngstown State
4-7 USD in 3 OT
5-6 WIU
6-5 ISUr

Loss to 2 conference win Missouri State

There isn't a single conference win over a team that finished over .500 in conference play there.

You might want too/need to apologize for your bad take and/or for voting for Indiana State at 16Counterpoint: the MVFC is a good conference whereas the OVC is not

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Catatonic]

It's a bad what the ****, in my opinion. UCA will be really good this year. Top 10 good eventually.

I agree

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Who? JSU?

We've won 40 of our last 41 OVC games. So... I'd say we've done pretty well in that sector.

Our worst loss in the past 5 years would either be SEMO or NC A&T. One of those teams won a playoff game, the other won the Celebration Bowl. So if you're attempting to make some JSU-EKU comparison, there isn't one. Not to mention we beat EKU 56-7 last season at their place.

I don't need a JSU-EKU comparison to show EKU is bad. EKU's play speaks for itself.

Yes, it is not a strong conference or has not been as of late. But if we are talking about weak wins etc. I guess at some point we need to start realizing that teams are gonna have that if they are in a conference providing that as the backdrop. If a team can pull off a good win and have a decent record then sometimes it provides context for what is coming or what a voter might think is coming based on it is the gist.

EKU beat a team that beat your team and that team won a playoff game correct? That is the point. It is a recent event and some may want to take a look at that since this is purely predictive at this point. Sure, a lot of these are gonna be wrong but you can't really say for sure even with the big swinging dick you say JSU has in the OVC right? I mean you would not have predicted JSU losing to the team EKU beat correct?

People look at things and try to come up with a reasonable prediction like you (and me) and many others with Indiana State. Predicting is a tough venture. xlolx

[Reign of Terrier]

I......don't.....get.....it


Since their felonious drug dealer left campus they haven't won more than 6 games.

People sit here and bang UNI to death because "inconsistent and flop in the ooc" and whatever else yet the same people have this raging hard on for Illinois State year after year.

The last 3 years they are 6-5 6-5 6-6

Their conference wins last year were YSU WIU and SIU - they lost to MSU. OOC wins were sub D1, 3 win EIU and then an Colorado State team that wouldn't finish top 40 in the FCS

If you look at games against only scholarship D1s the last 3 years they are .500 or a game below actually.

They had 3 Valley wins - zero ****ing chance they were the second best team NDSU played last year - even in conference only play.

At some point the hype from that magical 2 year blip is going to wear off to people. They were an average on their best year program before the Felon and Robison showed up. They rode them for 2 years. They are gone and they are back to average.

07 4-7
08 3-8
09 6-5
10 5-5
11 7-4
12 9-4
13 5-6
14 13-2
15 10-3
16 6-6
17 6-5
18 6-5


At what point do we stop giving them all kind of hype for those two years? For bringing people back (which they do and brag up every year)?

Maybe this year is different

Maybe they are just an average football team with decent talent but no ability to do anything with itI voted NDSU, SDSU, and UNI in my top 8 but I think I think similar to you when it comes to evaluating Illinois State. I also voted for Indiana State, but not EKU. Anyway...

Illinois State and Youngstown State both made the championship game in the last 5 years, which is great, but I think voters look at that and the MVFC affiliation and think they're a couple breaks away from being back near the top.

I don't see it. I mean, Towson plays in the CAA and similarly hasn't done much since they're one-hit season a few years back, but the fact that Towson did that doesn't inspire the "wait and see" defference a lot of teams in the MVFC get.

I have to reiterate that I do think that the MVFC is the best conference, but the only programs that consistently produce are NDSU, SDSU, and UNI.

That's not to say year-to-year one of the remaining 7 teams doesn't have it in them to go on a run, but part of earning your ranking is winning those close games. It's usually not until the latter half of the season that a team from the power-ish conferences who has been absent from the playoffs makes their way back into the rankings. For a Wofford example, I'm pretty sure we weren't ranked in 2016 until the last month before the playoffs and we ended up in the top 8 at the end of it all. And that was the right call.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[KPSUL]

I feel like the only reason Elon is ranked so low in this poll is because people forgot about them. Did you forget about Elon? Or did you rank NC A&T, Furman, and Central Arkansas ahead of them?

I didn't forget you, had Elon about where they ended up in the AGS poll; 16 vs 18. Although you have made the playoffs the last two seasons, you have not finished strong either year. 0-3 the last 3 games each year and 0 playoff wins. Combine that with significant coaching changes and perhaps your expectations were a bit too high.

I can't speak for Preferred Walk-on, maybe he did forget your team, but ranking Elon just outside of the Top 25 would not be outside the realm of reasonable in a pre-season poll.

[JSUSoutherner]

Yes, it is not a strong conference or has not been as of late. But if we are talking about weak wins etc. I guess at some point we need to start realizing that teams are gonna have that if they are in a conference providing that as the backdrop. If a team can pull off a good win and have a decent record then sometimes it provides context for what is coming or what a voter might think is coming based on it is the gist.

EKU beat a team that beat your team and that team won a playoff game correct? That is the point. It is a recent event and some may want to take a look at that since this is purely predictive at this point. Sure, a lot of these are gonna be wrong but you can't really say for sure even with the big swinging dick you say JSU has in the OVC right? I mean you would not have predicted JSU losing to the team EKU beat correct?

People look at things and try to come up with a reasonable prediction like you (and me) and many others with Indiana State. Predicting is a tough venture. xlolx

Some JSU people were worried about SEMO last year. They gave us all we wanted in 2016 and the last couple times we've played at their place have been tough for us. 2016 almost ended in a brawl.

Like I was telling Clenz, I'm probably more surprised EKU beat SEMO than SEMO beat us.

As proof I'm not full of ****, here's a screenshot from the SEMO prediction thread on GJS.

http://gojaxstate.boards.net/thread/4155/semo-predictionshttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190729/307d14b7046263876dea3fccfc631f1c.jpg

Sent from my Galaxy S9+ using Tapatalk

[Reign of Terrier]

Yes, it is not a strong conference or has not been as of late. But if we are talking about weak wins etc. I guess at some point we need to start realizing that teams are gonna have that if they are in a conference providing that as the backdrop. If a team can pull off a good win and have a decent record then sometimes it provides context for what is coming or what a voter might think is coming based on it is the gist.

EKU beat a team that beat your team and that team won a playoff game correct? That is the point. It is a recent event and some may want to take a look at that since this is purely predictive at this point. Sure, a lot of these are gonna be wrong but you can't really say for sure even with the big swinging dick you say JSU has in the OVC right? I mean you would not have predicted JSU losing to the team EKU beat correct?

People look at things and try to come up with a reasonable prediction like you (and me) and many others with Indiana State. Predicting is a tough venture. xlolxFor me, when I evaluate a team on the rise, I think the transitive property nonsense (looking at the record of the opponents) is bad and so is using computer rankings.

Looking at the records of your opponents is bad because, well, most teams won't play more than 2-3 playoff teams on average. Only the outliers play 4.

Looking at computer rankings can be insightful, but they can also overweight to the point of being unhelpful, and football stats are inherently more uncertain than basketball stats bc there are fewer plays, possessions, and games.

That's why, for me, winning is pretty important. It's not the most important, mind you, but the moment we start rewarding a 6-5 MVC team over, say, a 9-2 Southland or OVC team, we're no longer rewarding the product on the field so much as we are giving participation trophies.

Teams can't help who they schedule, they can help how they play. Obviously, we need to have some consideration for who they schedule, but not the value of like 3 games.

I've harped on this in the socon threads this off-season, but it's better to look at the FCS as a collection of teams and not conferences because the same teams are the ones who constantly win and make the playoffs. Yes, one hit wonders happen, and when they do they usually happen in the MVFC and CAA, but this trend isn't strong enough to justify giving teams barely above .500 consideration over (most) teams that have like 9 wins.

There's more uncertainty in FCS polls. I've never been confident tanking teams after 15 or so, or those teams that never play in the playoffs, and half the subdivision is within a game of .500 in FCS competition due to D2/FBS scheduling.

But it takes a lot for me to rank in my *preseason* top 25 a team that hasn't won a playoff game in like 20 years, when they were third place out of a conference that has struggled outside of their top program (OVC, Big South, MEAC, Patriot, Pioneer)

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[smilo]

The one notable thing that really stood out to me was Colgate being so high. Think they may lose in conference once this year (plus three, maybe four OOC). I ranked them 23, which feels more generous than I remember.

On the other hand, I feel like people around here are grossly unfair to Towson but at the same time, I think The Citadel could steal a signature win for SoCon in week 1 so I can't be too forceful in my admonition. If they lose that, the path to the playoffs is treacherous.

[FUBeAR]

I think The Citadel could steal a signature win for SoCon in week 1 so I can't be too forceful in my admonition. If they lose that, the path to the playoffs is treacherous.8/31 is the height of sand flea mating season in Charleston & the turf at Johnson Hagood Stadium is completely infested. All of Towson’s Players should be forewarned to cover every inch of their skin with heavy, impermeable cloth unless they want to return to Maryland resembling The Elephant Man.

https://images.medicinenet.com/images/slideshow/bad_bugs_s11.jpg

[KPSUL]

The one notable thing that really stood out to me was Colgate being so high. Think they may lose in conference once this year (plus three, maybe four OOC). I ranked them 23, which feels more generous than I remember.

On the other hand, I feel like people around here are grossly unfair to Towson but at the same time, I think The Citadel could steal a signature win for SoCon in week 1 so I can't be too forceful in my admonition. If they lose that, the path to the playoffs is treacherous.

Towson's performance, or lack there of, at home vs Duquesne in round 1 of the 2018 play-offs made a non-believer out of me. Yeah I know, the cold rainy weather favored the ball control ground game of Duquesne; but Towson hardly showed up for the second half.

[MayorOfHenTown]

Pretty comfortable with:

my Top 10
my 23-25 didn't make the preseason poll
after throwing out the bottom 3, only 5 of my picks were more than 4 off the AGS poll

Not comfortable with:

11 - 25...


Delaware, Princeton, and Stony Brook are pretty high on my watch list. xthumbsupx


Hello Derby City Duke,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/28/2019 21:31:02

Your vote is listed below.


1: North Dakota State Bison
2: Eastern Washington Eagles
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: James Madison Dukes
5: UC Davis Aggies
6: Nicholls State Colonels
7: Wofford Terriers
8: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
9: Towson Tigers
10: Weber State Wildcats
11: Northern Iowa Panthers
12: Kennesaw State Owls
13: Maine Black Bears
14: Montana Grizzlies
15: North Carolina A&T Aggies
16: Elon Phoenix
17: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
18: Montana State Bobcats
19: Colgate Raiders
20: Illinois State Redbirds
21: Furman Paladins
22: Central Arkansas Bears
23: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
24: Duquesne Dukes
25: Alcorn State Braves

Derby City Duke

The Most Significant Win:
The Most Significant Loss:
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Colonial Athletic Association

I don't know if Delaware necessarily belongs on any watch list lmfao. Big question mark with our young D.

[Schism55]

Man, how? I mean I sent not one but two emails on it and two extra just before it alerting to other information.
Sorry I was nebulose. Meant I personally screwed up not voting in this, my brain has trouble thinking football til the calendar switches to August.

[kdinva]

Pretty tough to nitpick a preseason poll ballot....

agree 110%.....let's wait until everyone plays 6 or 7 games.....

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Towson's performance, or lack there of, at home vs Duquesne in round 1 of the 2018 play-offs made a non-believer out of me. Yeah I know, the cold rainy weather favored the ball control ground game of Duquesne; but Towson hardly showed up for the second half.

Towson takes on the personality of their coach, flaky.....

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

The one notable thing that really stood out to me was Colgate being so high. Think they may lose in conference once this year (plus three, maybe four OOC). I ranked them 23, which feels more generous than I remember.

On the other hand, I feel like people around here are grossly unfair to Towson but at the same time, I think The Citadel could steal a signature win for SoCon in week 1 so I can't be too forceful in my admonition. If they lose that, the path to the playoffs is treacherous.

The odds of Colgate making it through the PL undefeated for a second straight year are pretty slim imo. The league should be deeper with some positive coaching turnover the last 2 seasons taking hold. With that said, 'Gate has a really good QB, OL and still some elite players on defense. Wheeler is an absolutely monster. Their OOC schedule is tough. Still, they could very easily be a battle tested 8-4 type team come playoff time. 8-4, 5-1 in the PL should get them an at large....

[ST_Lawson]

Surprised nobody is complaining about my poll like is per usual. Did I actually do a decent job or is it really just that much of a crapshoot this season?

I like it, but that's mostly because you're one of the only ones so far to have my team in your poll.

[Mike296]

I like it, but that's mostly because you're one of the only ones so far to have my team in your poll.

I was hard pressed for figuring out teams in pre season so you guys snuck in.

[Catatonic]

Hello Catatonic,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/24/2019 14:54:30

Your vote is listed below.


1: Eastern Washington Eagles
2: North Dakota State Bison
3: James Madison Dukes
4: UC Davis Aggies
5: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
6: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
7: Towson Tigers
8: Wofford Terriers
9: Maine Black Bears
10: Nicholls State Colonels
11: Weber State Wildcats
12: Montana State Bobcats
13: Colgate Raiders
14: Central Arkansas Bears
15: Kennesaw State Owls
16: Furman Paladins
17: Indiana State Sycamores
18: Illinois State Redbirds
19: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
20: Abilene Christian Wildcats
21: Sam Houston State Bearkats
22: North Carolina A&T Aggies
23: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
24: Northern Iowa Panthers
25: Duquesne Dukes

Catatonic

The Most Significant Win:
The Most Significant Loss:
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Southland Conference

[caribbeanhen]

They were the second best team the Bison played last year, IMHO, they have a lot coming back and should be better this year but who really knows. I have them at 6 in my poll because I believe that they are better than Maine, Weber State, Jacksonville State and others. Now, that being said, they will probably choke and miss the playoffs again.

Princeton would whip em, wait that was last year

[Reign of Terrier]

Towson's performance, or lack there of, at home vs Duquesne in round 1 of the 2018 play-offs made a non-believer out of me. Yeah I know, the cold rainy weather favored the ball control ground game of Duquesne; but Towson hardly showed up for the second half.

Same.

[McNeese72]

McNeese is where they belong. Not in the poll!! Even McNeese fans have no clue what kind of team we will have this season with the reboot of the coaching staff and all the secrecy around the spring practices.

If we end up being decent (not holding my breath on that), we need to earn our way into the poll.

Doc

[Professor Chaos]

Interesting to see the voting spread for Eastern Washington in the votes posted so far. They've been ranked anywhere from #1 to #10. Some believers and non-believers I guess.

I had them at #3 and it was kind of a toss-up between them and JMU for me at #2. I know they lost quite a bit but I was impressed with their overall team toughness watching them down in Frisco. I think Best has transformed them into a team that's more conditioned to win in the playoffs than they ever were under Baldwin. And Barriere is going to be a nightmare for opposing defenses. If he improves his decision making a bit (which I'd fully expect him to do with a full offseason as "the guy") he's going to be an All-American dual threat QB.

[POD Knows]

Princeton would whip em, wait that was last yearYea, I didn't have any Ivy's in my poll and the greatest team in FCS last year, Princeton, would have kicked their asses. xlolx I kept expecting for somebody to jam me up for excluding Furman in my poll. I guess nobody is paying attention. I flipped a coin with them and Towson for the 25th spot in the poll, Towson won.

Also, I am now able to get the emoji's to work in my replies, bitchin.

[Outsider1]

Over-all a decent poll. I had voted UCA above Nicholls in mine for the SLC teams because I think they have better key returning players and they are hungry to get back on top. I left my team out on purpose not to sandbag, but to let us earn it a little before voting on them. I think we belong there. Like others, I felt pretty good about 1-5, After that, it took research and guess work...

[clenz]

I like it, but that's mostly because you're one of the only ones so far to have my team in your poll.
I had WIU in the first group out. I just have too many questions I can't "justify" a solid answer for in my head to put them in a head of a few other teams. There is a reason WIU was picked 8th in the Valley and very very few had them in the top 25.

There is a lot of questions. Maybe there are real good answers in place, but WIU isn't known to be a traditional "reload" program to a significant level.

[ST_Lawson]

I had WIU in the first group out. I just have too many questions I can't "justify" a solid answer for in my head to put them in a head of a few other teams. There is a reason WIU was picked 8th in the Valley and very very few had them in the top 25.

There is a lot of questions. Maybe there are real good answers in place, but WIU isn't known to be a traditional "reload" program to a significant level.

All valid points. That's why I'm not complaining that we're not in most people's top 25 at this point. Until we answer some of those questions, there's not a strong reason to put us ahead of some of the other of the "lower top 25" teams.

[CenMEBlackBearFan]

I can sort of see ranking Weber State and possibly Towson above us even though we beat both them but no way in hell should JSU be rated over us as we dominated them in the playoffs and have 16 of 22 starters coming back.xnodx
I know it's preseason and it doesn't matter but just couldn't let that one slide.

[clenz]

All valid points. That's why I'm not complaining that we're not in most people's top 25 at this point. Until we answer some of those questions, there's not a strong reason to put us ahead of some of the other of the "lower top 25" teams.
I'll put this here as well as the MVFC thread where most won't see i posted it

Not only is QB McGuire gone - 2900 pass yards and the one of only 3 rushers over 100 yards gained (excluding sacks) the teams leading all purpose yardage earner (and main man for a few years) Steve McShane is gone.

Max Norris is the only returning running back with over 80 yards rushing. To me Norris is a clone of Marcus Weymiller...not exactly a stellar go to back with 3.6 ypc. The 7 or so other players who accounted for rushes last year return about 120 total yards of rushing.

Also gone are the #1 #2 #3 and #6 receiving targets. No one else even had 10 receptions. Those 4 targets accounted for 152 receptions, 1,711 yards and 14 touchdowns out of the 252 receptions 2900 yards and 21 touchdowns on the season through the air.

All punt return yards are one.
Something like 65% of kick return yards are gone.
The teams top 6 or 7 points scorers are gone.


I mean - it's fair to question WIU right now. I haven't seen the keepers numbers yet but just browsing your stats and returners shows something like 85% of your total offense, and all of your "top" players on offense are gone. And your offense last year was already bottom third of the conference with 8th in the conference in scoring, 7th in total offense, dead last in rushing. McGuire was and McShane were almost the entire offense and they are gone. Your special teams were 7th in kick returns and 5th in punt return yards. WIU struggled to move the ball with big name guys that were all conference names. Trusting the ball to move at a rate that will be conducive to winning 7 or 8 or more games is really really really hard to believe. I haven't even looked at the defense that closely but you do lose the main anchor of the defense in Saunders.

Having a good defense will only carry you so far. You still need an offense to win.


I'd say it's more safe to bet on the under of 5.5 for WIU rather than the over.

[paward]

Pretty tough to nitpick a preseason poll ballot. Remind me in a couple months and I'll tear it apart for you. :D

Yes and my hopes would be that Richmond is ranked #1 by that time. We will win the biggest poll leap award of the year!

[kalm]

Here's the Wedge blog post for the 2019 preseason poll: http://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-preseason-2019-top-25-results/

A lot of familiar names in the poll but there was quite a bit of churn amongst the placement those teams. Now let the games begin so we have some real football to influence our votes!

Nice write up. xnodx

[FUBeAR]

...no way in hell should JSU be rated over us as we dominated them...Should Maine be ranked ahead of Yale? xconfusedx

[JSUSoutherner]

I can sort of see ranking Weber State and possibly Towson above us even though we beat both them but no way in hell should JSU be rated over us as we dominated them in the playoffs and have 16 of 22 starters coming back.xnodx
I know it's preseason and it doesn't matter but just couldn't let that one slide.

I had Maine above us, but some people can get spooked by coaching changes.

[kalm]

For me, when I evaluate a team on the rise, I think the transitive property nonsense (looking at the record of the opponents) is bad and so is using computer rankings.

Looking at the records of your opponents is bad because, well, most teams won't play more than 2-3 playoff teams on average. Only the outliers play 4.

Looking at computer rankings can be insightful, but they can also overweight to the point of being unhelpful, and football stats are inherently more uncertain than basketball stats bc there are fewer plays, possessions, and games.

That's why, for me, winning is pretty important. It's not the most important, mind you, but the moment we start rewarding a 6-5 MVC team over, say, a 9-2 Southland or OVC team, we're no longer rewarding the product on the field so much as we are giving participation trophies.

Teams can't help who they schedule, they can help how they play. Obviously, we need to have some consideration for who they schedule, but not the value of like 3 games.

I've harped on this in the socon threads this off-season, but it's better to look at the FCS as a collection of teams and not conferences because the same teams are the ones who constantly win and make the playoffs. Yes, one hit wonders happen, and when they do they usually happen in the MVFC and CAA, but this trend isn't strong enough to justify giving teams barely above .500 consideration over (most) teams that have like 9 wins.

There's more uncertainty in FCS polls. I've never been confident tanking teams after 15 or so, or those teams that never play in the playoffs, and half the subdivision is within a game of .500 in FCS competition due to D2/FBS scheduling.

But it takes a lot for me to rank in my *preseason* top 25 a team that hasn't won a playoff game in like 20 years, when they were third place out of a conference that has struggled outside of their top program (OVC, Big South, MEAC, Patriot, Pioneer)

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

There's too much scheduling disparity across the FCS to not heavily consider schedule strength. Playoff performances can even be a decent indicator. For example, Weber State might be a top 5 team this year but with their schedule as brutal as it is, you could also see them going 7-5. Give that same team a Big South schedule and they would be a seed.

[clenz]

There's too much scheduling disparity across the FCS to not heavily consider schedule strength. Playoff performances can even be a decent indicator. For example, Weber State might be a top 5 team this year but with their schedule as brutal as it is, you could also see them going 7-5. Give that same team a Big South schedule and they would be a seed.We saw what a UNI team with a bad record did to a Big South team with a 9-2 record.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

[Reign of Terrier]

There's too much scheduling disparity across the FCS to not heavily consider schedule strength. Playoff performances can even be a decent indicator. For example, Weber State might be a top 5 team this year but with their schedule as brutal as it is, you could also see them going 7-5. Give that same team a Big South schedule and they would be a seed.


We saw what a UNI team with a bad record did to a Big South team with a 9-2 record.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

I didn't say scheduling didn't count at all, but there's clear diminishing point of return after the third place MVFC (usually being UNI) in terms of playoff consideration. The 4th place MVFC team doesn't have a much better record in the playoffs relative to, say, the second place Southland or third place Southern team. And the fifth place team doesn't do all that great in the playoffs either.


So, the fourth place MVFC team for me will likely be in the top 25, but all this "transitive property shoulda coulda would that's why my 6-5 team should be ranked in the top 15" is bull**** to me.

At some point, rewarding those teams for losing becomes a participation trophy. The flaw with weighing scheduling heavily is that there's too many team that only have 2 OOC games and many conferences like the CAA and Big Sky don't even play their entire conference.

If we "weigh heavily" SOS when 80% of your SOS is baked-in, that's essentially rewarding teams for being in a certain conference. And again, the fourth and fifth place teams that get admitted don't usually do so hot. The exception being the fourth place CAA team (just look it up).

FCS is a subdivision of teams, not conferences anyway. You can predict with a degree of certainty which one of the 6-5 or 7-4 teams will actually do well in the playoffs and it has more to do with who the actual team is than the conference.

[Hambone]

Hello Hambone,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/29/2019 8:47:19

Your vote is listed below.


1: James Madison Dukes
2: North Dakota State Bison
3: Eastern Washington Eagles
4: UC Davis Aggies
5: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
6: Maine Black Bears
7: Wofford Terriers
8: Illinois State Redbirds
9: Weber State Wildcats
10: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
11: Elon Phoenix
12: Nicholls State Colonels
13: Towson Tigers
14: Central Arkansas Bears
15: Furman Paladins
16: Montana State Bobcats
17: Northern Iowa Panthers
18: Colgate Raiders
19: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
20: Indiana State Sycamores
21: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
22: Kennesaw State Owls
23: Chattanooga Mocs
24: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
25: Sam Houston State Bearkats

Hambone

The Most Significant Win:
The Most Significant Loss:
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Independent

Preseason polls are always tough.....

[CenMEBlackBearFan]

Should Maine be ranked ahead of Yale? xconfusedx

They did handle us well, our 2nd string QB who has left the team, certainly did not help us either. It seems like every team in the CAA lost their QB for part of the season. There is no doubt teams have to prepare for losing their QB as it is not if it will happen but rather when will it happen.
On another note why is Yale who is ranked 31 so low? As I recall their recruiting classes the past two years have been top 10???

[Reign of Terrier]

There's too much scheduling disparity across the FCS to not heavily consider schedule strength. Playoff performances can even be a decent indicator. For example, Weber State might be a top 5 team this year but with their schedule as brutal as it is, you could also see them going 7-5. Give that same team a Big South schedule and they would be a seed.

The fifth best team in the country does not by definition lose 5 games in the regular season. That's participation trophy logic. I never suggested giving Big South teams equal consideration to MVFC or Big Sky teams or Socon teams for that matter. That would be dumb.

I had a spreadsheet for this somewhere, and when I'm in regular season mode I can produce it, but if you look at the playoff records of any conference's team below, say, 3rd place (I think only the CAA, Socon, MVFC, and Big Sky have had 4 playoff spots), the only conference whose fourth place team wins roughly 50% or more of their games is the CAA. But there's a big drop off from fifth and sixth place teams which lose more than 50% of the time (only the MVFC and CAA have had more than 4).

I was about to type out this post and make it longer, but the TL;DR is that using historical playoff performance by the conference + a team's place in the standing + the playoff history of a team in that similar standing. In this way, I think the third place Socon/Big Sky and the fourth place MVFC/CAA team should have greater consideration for playoff positioning and rankings than the second place team in the OVC and Big South and the first place team in the Patriot, Pioneer, MEAC, and NEC unless those teams have a quality win out of conference.

Conference affiliation should have weight, even strong weight, but there's not a lot of strong evidence that the teams after fourth place in the CAA/MVFC are much better than the 3rd place team in the Southland/Socon/Big Sky and I think when we rank these teams a lot of people just have the heuristic of MVFC=tough in a way that isn't 100% reasonable.

[clenz]

The fifth best team in the country does not by definition lose 5 games in the regular season. That's participation trophy logic. I never suggested giving Big South teams equal consideration to MVFC or Big Sky teams or Socon teams for that matter. That would be dumb.

I had a spreadsheet for this somewhere, and when I'm in regular season mode I can produce it, but if you look at the playoff records of any conference's team below, say, 3rd place (I think only the CAA, Socon, MVFC, and Big Sky have had 4 playoff spots), the only conference whose fourth place team wins roughly 50% or more of their games is the CAA. But there's a big drop off from fifth and sixth place teams which lose more than 50% of the time (only the MVFC and CAA have had more than 4).

I was about to type out this post and make it longer, but the TL;DR is that using historical playoff performance by the conference + a team's place in the standing + the playoff history of a team in that similar standing. In this way, I think the third place Socon/Big Sky and the fourth place MVFC/CAA team should have greater consideration for playoff positioning and rankings than the second place team in the OVC and Big South and the first place team in the Patriot, Pioneer, MEAC, and NEC unless those teams have a quality win out of conference.

Conference affiliation should have weight, even strong weight, but there's not a lot of strong evidence that the teams after fourth place in the CAA/MVFC are much better than the 3rd place team in the Southland/Socon/Big Sky and I think when we rank these teams a lot of people just have the heuristic of MVFC=tough in a way that isn't 100% reasonable.
I've had this discussion just last night with Thumper through text.

Win % get interesting when looking at teams playing Thanksgiving weekend because you have to consider geography and the NCAA forcing teams close to each other to play.

Say the 4th place MVFC teams wins Thanksgiving weekend they are then sent to NDSU or SDSU. Likely to lose that one 98% of the time.
A 4th place CAA team likely gets sent to an over valued Big South Patriot program that got a seed

Who is more likely to win 2 games in a playoffs from teams playing Thanksgiving weekend

CAA team 4 playing NEC round 1 and over valued Big South seed in round 2
MVFC team 4 playing SLC team 2 in round 1 and MVFC or Big Sky 1 or 2 in round 2

?


We were comparing SDSU and UNI over the last 5 years (and we went pretty hard after each other) and discovered both were 1-4 against seeds in the playoffs the last 5 years, but SDSU has more "deep runs". Well by default, due to OOC scheduling (kudos to SDSU for doing it that way) if SDSU wins 1 game they are by default making a deeper run than UNI unless UNI wins 2, which is difficult as UNI's 2nd round game is always a seeded game and the 4 losses at NDSUx2, SDSU and Davis. Meanwhile SDSU is 1-4 against seeds and 3 of their losses are NDSU.

It's been brought up in previous years, but the MVFC win % for MVFC teams vs non-MVFC teams over the last 7 or 8 years is is very high, however, geography tends to force MVFC to MVFC teams quite early and often.

[Catatonic]

Over-all a decent poll. I had voted UCA above Nicholls in mine for the SLC teams because I think they have better key returning players and they are hungry to get back on top. I left my team out on purpose not to sandbag, but to let us earn it a little before voting on them. I think we belong there. Like others, I felt pretty good about 1-5, After that, it took research and guess work...

I put two SLC teams ahead of us in the poll but voted for us because we belong there imo.

[Reign of Terrier]

I've had this discussion just last night with Thumper through text.

Win % get interesting when looking at teams playing Thanksgiving weekend because you have to consider geography and the NCAA forcing teams close to each other to play.

Say the 4th place MVFC teams wins Thanksgiving weekend they are then sent to NDSU or SDSU. Likely to lose that one 98% of the time.
A 4th place CAA team likely gets sent to an over valued Big South Patriot program that got a seed

Who is more likely to win 2 games in a playoffs from teams playing Thanksgiving weekend

CAA team 4 playing NEC round 1 and over valued Big South seed in round 2
MVFC team 4 playing SLC team 2 in round 1 and MVFC or Big Sky 1 or 2 in round 2

?


We were comparing SDSU and UNI over the last 5 years (and we went pretty hard after each other) and discovered both were 1-4 against seeds in the playoffs the last 5 years, but SDSU has more "deep runs". Well by default, due to OOC scheduling (kudos to SDSU for doing it that way) if SDSU wins 1 game they are by default making a deeper run than UNI unless UNI wins 2, which is difficult as UNI's 2nd round game is always a seeded game and the 4 losses at NDSUx2, SDSU and Davis. Meanwhile SDSU is 1-4 against seeds and 3 of their losses are NDSU.

It's been brought up in previous years, but the MVFC win % for MVFC teams vs non-MVFC teams over the last 7 or 8 years is is very high, however, geography tends to force MVFC to MVFC teams quite early and often.

Okay, but the fourth place CAA team is something like 10-10 over the last decade or so (I had the specific numbers somewhere but am too lazy to find it), that was my point with the CAA. The CAA's fourth place team has historically been the best fourth place team in the playoffs, relative to other fourth place teams.

The MVFC also benefits heavily win percentage-wise against non-MVFC teams, because they usually get sent the misfits. I'm not going to argue that geography and the seeding arrangement hurts the MVFC in the second round/quarterfinals against NDSU/SDSU because it obviously does.

However, let's just take 2017 as an example because it's readily available and the MVFC got 5 in that year.

Their first round slate was 8-4 Nicholls (a bubble team), seeded Weber, and Monmouth (who didn't belong there).

MVFC teams went went 2-1. I look at the counterfactual. Would EWU (7-4), Delaware (7-4), Montana (7-4), Sac State (7-4), Western Carolina (7-5), or McNeese (9-2) fare similarly?

I know some of these teams did play the aformentioned constants (McNeese lost to Nicholls), but I know we can safely say that these teams would have almost certainly beat Monmouth, very likely lost to Weber, and the Nicholls game would have been close, near a coin flip (just like the South Dakota game in fact was)

My point here is not to assert a certain argument that these teams would have fared just as well as the MVFC teams did (I don't think we can) or even to assert that the MVFC teams didn't deserve to be there, but just that we can't use playoff outcomes by themselves when it comes to these bubble teams/16-25 ranking spots because it's not entirely clear that those teams would have ended up doing much better/worse anyway. The only reason we can argue for the MVFC teams being of a certain quality is because they have the actual evidence because they were actually given a playoff spot. The former is objective, the latter somewhat subjective on the committee decisions.

Put another way, there's evidence for the MVFC being good point because it exists, but for everyone else there's 0 data. If we were running an experiment, we would collect the data, but we can't for this.

So, when ranking teams in that 16-25, I don't trust anyone who feels high certainty on those rankings because I don't think we can run the counterfactual for the bubble teams and say that they are clearly worse than the OOC teams. The MVFC is the test case here, but it's applicable to other bubble teams and other conferences either. Like, Furman would not have been demolished by Dusquesne last season IMO

[dbackjon]

Surprised nobody is complaining about my poll like is per usual. Did I actually do a decent job or is it really just that much of a crapshoot this season?


I don't see the point in complaining about a pre-season poll :)

[POD Knows]

Hello Mike296,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/24/2019 11:44:20

Your vote is listed below.


1: North Dakota State Bison
2: James Madison Dukes
3: UC Davis Aggies
4: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
5: Weber State Wildcats
6: Nicholls State Colonels
7: Elon Phoenix
8: Furman Paladins
9: Montana Grizzlies
10: Eastern Washington Eagles
11: Wofford Terriers
12: Towson Tigers
13: Kennesaw State Ohhhwls
14: Western Illinois Leathernecks
15: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
16: Illinois State Redbirds
17: Sam Houston State Bearkats
18: North Carolina A&T Aggies
19: Idaho Vandals
20: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
21: Northern Iowa Panthers
22: South Dakota Coyotes
23: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
24: San Diego Toreros
25: Alcorn State Braves

Mike296

The Most Significant Win:
The Most Significant Loss:
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Ohio Valley ConferenceUgh, this poll is brutal, I don't even know where to start and it would take too long to totally decimate it. :D

[clenz]

I don't see the point in complaining about a pre-season poll :)
Mostly this - though I will poke at things/trends I don't quite understand - like I've done in this thread.

I see quite a few things I disagree with and could go after, but for a preseason poll I don't see the point in going after individual submissions for questions.

[Daytripper]

Yes and my hopes would be that Richmond is ranked #1 by that time. We will win the biggest poll leap award of the year!

It will be a battle with SHSU.

[TheRevSFA]

I put two SLC teams ahead of us in the poll but voted for us because we belong there imo.

Why?

[Sycamore62]

Hello Sycamore62,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/29/2019 8:00:34

Your vote is listed below.


1: North Dakota State Bison
2: James Madison Dukes
3: Maine Black Bears
4: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
5: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
6: UC Davis Aggies
7: Eastern Washington Eagles
8: Wofford Terriers
9: Montana State Bobcats
10: Towson Tigers
11: Northern Iowa Panthers
12: Indiana State Sycamores
13: Nicholls State Colonels
14: Illinois State Redbirds
15: Sam Houston State Bearkats
16: Weber State Wildcats
17: The Citadel Bulldogs
18: Kennesaw State Owls
19: Furman Paladins
20: Samford Bulldogs
21: Elon Phoenix
22: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
23: Alcorn State Braves
24: Yale Bulldogs
25: Princeton Tigers

Sycamore62

The Most Significant Win:
The Most Significant Loss:
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Missouri Valley Football Conference

this is my first season voting. I thought about this one for a while but I was a little rushed at the end because of a family emergency. I looked at some info and some of the polls. Its a preseason poll so it only helps some teams sell 8 more tickets.

[Sycamore62]

Indiana State would kill EKU.



****ing nope.

After September 14 there will be no reason to speculate

[grayghost06]

Is there a sub file with everyone's votes? I have noticed some, but not all, post their ballot in the weekly thread. I am always surprised when I see strong opinions by a voter in discussion, yet never see their ballot for public viewing.

[clenz]

Is there a sub file with everyone's votes? I have noticed some, but not all, post their ballot in the weekly thread. I am always surprised when I see strong opinions by a voter in discussion, yet never see their ballot for public viewing.
No requirement to released. If/when I do I do it grouped in ranges of 10-15 and in alphabetical order - especially for a preseason poll

So...my top 15


EWU


ISUR


Jax St


JMU


KSU


Maine


Mon St


Montana


NDSU


SDSU


Towson


UCD


UNI


Weber


Wofford




15-25


Central Arkansas


Colgate


Dartmouth


Delaware


Elon


Furman


Indiana St


Nicholls


Princeton


Sam Houston St



Others considered/looked at closely - as close as I'll look at a preseason poll


Alcorn


Chatt


Citadel


Eastern Kentucky


McNeese


NCAT


Nova


Samford


SBU


SEMO


WIU


YALE


YSU

[Catatonic]

Why?
Won 4 of our last five. Beat both Nicholls and Sam. We return virtually everyone responsible for those wins- top two rb’s, 3000 yd passing qB, leading receiver, and 10 of 11 starters on Defense. Due to injuries we started a lot if guys toward the end of the season, 24 who started at least two games. I like our chances

[Professor Chaos]

Won 4 of our last five. Beat both Nicholls and Sam. We return virtually everyone responsible for those wins- top two rb’s, 3000 yd passing qB, leading receiver, and 10 of 11 starters on Defense. Due to injuries we started a lot if guys toward the end of the season, 24 who started at least two games. I like our chances
The problem with ACU this year is the schedule. 2 FBS games and a D2 in the non-con. And then their first conference game is at UCA. Assuming they lose to North Texas and Mississippi St to bookend the season and drop that SLC opener at UCA they're going to need to reel off 7 of 8 in between UCA and Mississippi St to have any realistic shot at the playoffs.

That's 3 years in a row now where ACU hasn't played an OOC FCS game... hopefully that doesn't become the norm. Switch that Arizona Christian game with Northern Arizona and you've got a lot better looking schedule for playoff at-large consideration.

[Catatonic]

The problem with ACU this year is the schedule. 2 FBS games and a D2 in the non-con. And then their first conference game is at UCA. Assuming they lose to North Texas and Mississippi St to bookend the season and drop that SLC opener at UCA they're going to need to reel off 7 of 8 in between UCA and Mississippi St to have any realistic shot at the playoffs.

That's 3 years in a row now where ACU hasn't played an OOC FCS game... hopefully that doesn't become the norm. Switch that Arizona Christian game with Northern Arizona and you've got a lot better looking schedule for playoff at-large consideration.

Two FBS Games this year was a mistake, for sure. I wish we played at least one OOC FCS game. Lamar made it last year without a FCS OOC win though so even an 8 win season isn’t terrible. We play Southern Utah at home next year and away the following season.

[Daytripper]

Won 4 of our last five. Beat both Nicholls and Sam. We return virtually everyone responsible for those wins- top two rb’s, 3000 yd passing qB, leading receiver, and 10 of 11 starters on Defense. Due to injuries we started a lot if guys toward the end of the season, 24 who started at least two games. I like our chances

This is a legitimate argument. Part of the reason I put them in my top 25.

[F'N Hawks]

Should a team's schedule factor into a preseason poll? Interested in whether a preseason poll should project how they finish or how they are Week 1. ???

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Should a team's schedule factor into a preseason poll? Interested in whether a preseason poll should project how they finish or how they are Week 1. ???

Two different philosophies on that one. You cited them both.

[Professor Chaos]

Should a team's schedule factor into a preseason poll? Interested in whether a preseason poll should project how they finish or how they are Week 1. ???
Not really, I didn't include ACU in my poll because I thought there were better teams to slot into those last few spots. Realistically though it's going to be tough for them to climb into the top 25 from the outside with an early season schedule like they have (@North Texas, D2, @UCA). So while I have them on my "watch list" it's not a team I'm expecting to seriously consider anytime soon unless they are able to take out North Texas or UCA.

[Reign of Terrier]

I've noticed lots of teams have scheduled 2 FBS games and a D2 game. It's an excellent revenue-maximizing schedule, but it's terrible to make the playoffs.

Historically, in 12 game seasons, the committee doesn't act too charitably to 8-win teams who play 12 games (Chattanooga in 2013 is a prime example). As most conferences play 8 conference games, scheduling this way makes it so you have to either win you conference or come pretty darn close to winning it (winning 8 of 9 FCS games).

In the socon, Western Carolina, Furman, and ETSU scheduled this way this year and I only like Furman to overcome those odds by either winning the socon or beating Georgia State and getting to 9 wins.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[KPSUL]

I've had this discussion just last night with Thumper through text.



A 4th place CAA team likely gets sent to an over valued Big South Patriot program that got a seed. No 3rd or 4th place CAA team has ever played a seeded Patriot League Team and no CAA team of any ranking has ever played a seeded Big South team - over-valued or not. In fact, when a 3rd or 4th place CAA makes it as far as the 2nd round, they are more likely to play their own conference champion than any other scenario. UNH, the quintessential #3 or #4 CAA playoff team played the CAA Champ in 2013 (Maine) and 2016 (JMU). In 2012 we played the SoCon Champs and 2017 the Southland Champs. 2014 we were the #1 seed and played three home playoff games, 2015 we lost in the 1st round and 2018 we watched from afar.

CAA team 4 playing NEC round 1 and over valued Big South seed in round 2. How many times has this happened to any CAA playoff team? Zero, nada, the null set.

[Redbird 4th & short]

No requirement to released. If/when I do I do it grouped in ranges of 10-15 and in alphabetical order - especially for a preseason poll

So...my top 15


EWU


ISUR


Jax St


JMU


KSU


Maine


Mon St


Montana


NDSU


SDSU


Towson


UCD


UNI


Weber


Wofford




15-25


Central Arkansas


Colgate


Dartmouth


Delaware


Elon


Furman


Indiana St


Nicholls


Princeton


Sam Houston St



Others considered/looked at closely - as close as I'll look at a preseason poll


Alcorn


Chatt


Citadel


Eastern Kentucky


McNeese


NCAT


Nova


Samford


SBU


SEMO


WIU


YALE


YSU




so after all that, we made your top 15 ... I'm confused ??

p.s. is marijuana legal yet in Iowa ?

[nodak651]

I don't get all of the Montana State love. It took a miracle comeback against a mediocre Montana to make the playoffs, they beat Incarnate Word, then got stomped by NDSU. They still don't have a quarterback for 2019, right? Did they land a big grad transfer QB or something? What am I missing?

[TheRevSFA]

This is a legitimate argument. Part of the reason I put them in my top 25.

Yeah and they have potentially scheduled themselves out of the playoffs

They will have to go unscathed in conference play and the SLC has gotten better as a whole. I don’t think they get over 6 wins

[TheKingpin28]

I don't get all of the Montana State love. It took a miracle comeback against a mediocre Montana to make the playoffs, they beat Incarnate Word, then got stomped by NDSU. They still don't have a quarterback for 2019, right? Did they land a big grad transfer QB or something? What am I missing?

My thought was this, if Troy Andersen can get them to the playoffs being a RB/LB at QB, imagine what they could do with a decent QB. Also, IIRC, they had a RFR that they were high on who was suppose to be the real deal. So if they can get a real QB back there, they should be anywhere between the the #2 through #4 team in the Big Sky. Most have EWU anywhere from 1-3 with UCD anywhere from 3-5 (EWU, JMU, NDSU, SDSU, UCD in alpha order for the top 5), so if we take that, there is no reason to believe Montana St isn't somewhere between 11-20 as once we get outside of 10, there are a group of teams who can jockey for position as of right now. For the record, I had them at 17, so the lower end as I believe Andersen would be a hell of RB if they could move him there and get a dual threat under center to open up the passing game.

[clenz]

My thought was this, if Troy Andersen can get them to the playoffs being a RB/LB at QB, imagine what they could do with a decent QB. Also, IIRC, they had a RFR that they were high on who was suppose to be the real deal. So if they can get a real QB back there, they should be anywhere between the the #2 through #4 team in the Big Sky. Most have EWU anywhere from 1-3 with UCD anywhere from 3-5 (EWU, JMU, NDSU, SDSU, UCD in alpha order for the top 5), so if we take that, there is no reason to believe Montana St isn't somewhere between 11-20 as once we get outside of 10, there are a group of teams who can jockey for position as of right now. For the record, I had them at 17, so the lower end as I believe Andersen would be a hell of RB if they could move him there and get a dual threat under center to open up the passing game.
This is where I fall with them.

Thanks to Pluto TV being standard with the TV I bought a while back I find myself mindlessly watching the Big Sky station as background noise. I've seen a fair share of FB games in the Big Sky from last year at this point - I've watched the Montana State/Idaho game probably 5 or 6 times on it's own. If Montana State can at least be a respectable team with a LB playing QB, I see no reason to believe that even an meh QB at the helm at Montana State can't replicate what happened last year - at a minimum.

[gofurman]

As a SoCon guy I think Mercer could finish higher than Samford this year

[Catatonic]

Not really, I didn't include ACU in my poll because I thought there were better teams to slot into those last few spots. Realistically though it's going to be tough for them to climb into the top 25 from the outside with an early season schedule like they have (@North Texas, D2, @UCA). So while I have them on my "watch list" it's not a team I'm expecting to seriously consider anytime soon unless they are able to take out North Texas or UCA.

The early season schedule works against us, for sure. I expect I’ll drop ACU from my poll if we start the season 1-2 but will add them back if/when we hit 5-2 or 6-2. FWIW, I’m predicting 8-4 as the most likely record with a ceiling of 10-2.

[MR. CHICKEN]

I want to ask this of so many people - what's the infatuation with Illinois State?


......CLENZIE........YOUSE HAD ME SECOND GUESSIN'.....MAH ILLINOIS STATE RANKIN'........AWK!

[MR. CHICKEN]

No requirement to released. If/when I do I do it grouped in ranges of 10-15 and in alphabetical order - especially for a preseason poll

So...my top 15


EWU


ISUR


Jax St


JMU


KSU


Maine


Mon St


Montana


NDSU


SDSU


Towson


UCD


UNI


Weber


Wofford




15-25


Central Arkansas


Colgate


Dartmouth


Delaware


Elon


Furman


Indiana St


Nicholls


Princeton


Sam Houston St



Others considered/looked at closely - as close as I'll look at a preseason poll


Alcorn


Chatt


Citadel


Eastern Kentucky


McNeese


NCAT


Nova


Samford


SBU


SEMO


WIU


YALE


YSU






........BUT NOW AH FEEL........MUCH BETTERAH......WHEW!!..............;).........BRAWK !

[POD Knows]

........BUT NOW AH FEEL........MUCH BETTERAH......WHEW!!..............;).........BRAWK !Yea, he went on and on about ISUr and then he has them in his top 15. Somebody explain the infatuation with Towson, I almost dropped them out of my poll. I get they have their QB back but is that going to be enough.

[clenz]

Yea, he went on and on about ISUr and then he has them in his top 15. Somebody explain the infatuation with Towson, I almost dropped them out of my poll. I get they have their QB back but is that going to be enough.
There's a difference in mid teens (which is where most all MVFC teams finishing the season between 4-6 in the valley finish) and thinking they are the second best team in the Valley and believing they will be title contenders.

[POD Knows]

There's a difference in mid teens (which is where most all MVFC teams finishing the season between 4-6 in the valley finish) and thinking they are the second best team in the Valley and believing they will be title contenders.
We will see, you may be right, I may be crazy but who knows. These guys made to the Natty in recent memory, you may be wrong for all I know but you may be right.

[Professor Chaos]

We will see, you may be right, I may be crazy but who knows. These guys made to the Natty in recent memory, you may be wrong for all I know but you may be right.
Whatever you say Billy. :D

[POD Knows]

Whatever you say Billy. :DYea, I am stealing that CHen guys stuff because I am running out of material.

[JSUSoutherner]

We will see, you may be right, I may be crazy but who knows. These guys made to the Natty in recent memory, you may be wrong for all I know but you may be right.

Quit butchering Billy Joel. It's sacrilege.

Go back to Nickelback you dirty animal.

[POD Knows]

Quit butchering Billy Joel. It's sacrilege.

Go back to Nickelback you dirty animal.I don't know the lyrics to any Nickelback songs off the top of my head and that Joel song was on the radio here about 15 minutes ago, so I went with that.

[MR. CHICKEN]

There's a difference in mid teens (which is where most all MVFC teams finishing the season between 4-6 in the valley finish) and thinking they are the second best team in the Valley and believing they will be title contenders.



...............WADDAH.....YA GROWIN'.......IN DUH MIDDLE UH DAT CORNFIELD........xconfusedx.......BRAWK!

[Outsider1]

Not really, I didn't include ACU in my poll because I thought there were better teams to slot into those last few spots. Realistically though it's going to be tough for them to climb into the top 25 from the outside with an early season schedule like they have (@North Texas, D2, @UCA). So while I have them on my "watch list" it's not a team I'm expecting to seriously consider anytime soon unless they are able to take out North Texas or UCA.

What is worse is that Arizona Christian is not D2, they are NAIA.... Not that it really matters for the current discussion. We still shouldn't have done it, but no FCS school was going to come play us for what we paid. NAU would be a really great home and away series. Moving to an 8 game conference schedule could provide us opportunity for more OOC FCS games if our Althletics Dept. & donors make it happen. Regardless of the NAIA game, we should at least be on people's watch list. If we aren't it makes me question the voters. The UNT and MSU games have to be seen for what they are. I agree that the UCA game will be a defining game for our 2019 season.

[Outsider1]

Yeah and they have potentially scheduled themselves out of the playoffs

They will have to go unscathed in conference play and the SLC has gotten better as a whole. I don’t think they get over 6 wins

This reality scares me even recognizing our improvements in talent, depth, maturity and football IQ... This whole season is going to be an uphill battle.........

[Catatonic]

What is worse is that Arizona Christian is not D2, they are NAIA.... Not that it really matters for the current discussion. We still shouldn't have done it, but no FCS school was going to come play us for what we paid. NAU would be a really great home and away series. Moving to an 8 game conference schedule could provide us opportunity for more OOC FCS games if our Althletics Dept. & donors make it happen. Regardless of the NAIA game, we should at least be on people's watch list. If we aren't it makes me question the voters. The UNT and MSU games have to be seen for what they are. I agree that the UCA game will be a defining game for our 2019 season.

We should have scheduled a home/away series with a FCS team starting last year. Return games don’t involve paying a guarantee.

By foolishly scheduling a D2 team last year we eliminated the return game option for this year and we were left with the choice of paying a guarantee to a FCS team to play us at home or paying a small amount to a school like Arizona Christian to visit us.

[Outsider1]

We should have scheduled a home/away series with a FCS team starting last year. Return games don’t involve paying a guarantee.

By foolishly scheduling a D2 team last year we eliminated the return game option for this year and we were left with the choice of paying a guarantee to a FCS team to play us at home or paying a small amount to a school like Arizona Christian to visit us.

+100....

[Redbird 4th & short]

There's a difference in mid teens (which is where most all MVFC teams finishing the season between 4-6 in the valley finish) and thinking they are the second best team in the Valley and believing they will be title contenders.
Well I've been doing most of the "boasting" here .. and I picked us 3rd. But yes, on the BOLD predictions thread, I said IF our QB plays closer to his ability this year, we will make noise in playoffs .. again, in the thread that asked for BOLD predictions. I've also said UNI should be right there too .. I just think we have edge with more returning.

By the way, our worst full game last year was against UNI .. it was the 3rd game in a stretch where we played NDSU, SDSU, UNI, and ISUb .. top 4 MVFC teams with 3 of 4 on road. You guys came ready and we did not. As for ISUb loss, statistically, we outplayed ISUb about the same as UNI did .. like 480 to 280 in total yards. But like all 4 of those losses, we imploded in Q2 and were outscored 71-0 ... many coming from TOs leading to TDs. Other than ISUb, we lost because we just were not good enough that day .. but statistically we were in every game except UNI, Q2 TOs killed our season .. lot of short field TDs, very few sustained drives.

And not trying to set you hair on fire here , but I am on record on Redbird forum as saying Robinson may have been playing wih an injury from later in NDSU game or early in SDSU game. Against NDSU he had 20 carries for 128 yards, aganist SDSU he had 10 carries for 13 yards, against UNI it was 16 carries for 40 yards. I first noted it against SDSU because he just was not running hard or hitting holes like he did in the NDSU and prior games. I know it sounds like excuses, but you offered a few recentl for your Lamar game ... but I know what I saw and he was not the same for several weeks. And with Markel Smith in and out of doghouse several times and benched a few times, our RB options were limited at times .. Smith since agreed to part ways as grad transfer.

In any case, UNI came to play that game and we did not and it was our worst full game last year, and our QB/OL confidence was eroding .. so that may be why you were not impressed .. putting aside your thing for Spack. But we have a lot coming back, and we'll see if Davis steps his game up with full offseason now.

That aside, I think MVFC should be very competitive with teams 1 thru 7, maybe even 8 teams ... it feels a bit like 2014 and 2015 in terms of dominance .. been wrong before, but right now it looks promising. Got to play the games and prove it but I think this will be a 5 bid year for sure .. and maybe more on the bubble.

[clenz]

Well I've been doing most of the "boasting" here .. and I picked us 3rd. But yes, on the BOLD predictions thread, I said IF our QB plays closer to his ability this year, we will make noise in playoffs .. again, in the thread that asked for BOLD predictions. I've also said UNI should be right there too .. I just think we have edge with more returning.

By the way, our worst full game last year was against UNI .. it was the 3rd game in a stretch where we played NDSU, SDSU, UNI, and ISUb .. top 4 MVFC teams with 3 of 4 on road. You guys came ready and we did not. As for ISUb loss, statistically, we outplayed ISUb about the same as UNI did .. like 480 to 280 in total yards. But like all 4 of those losses, we imploded in Q2 and were outscored 71-0 ... many coming from TOs leading to TDs. Other than ISUb, we lost because we just were not good enough that day .. but statistically we were in every game except UNI, Q2 TOs killed our season .. lot of short field TDs, very few sustained drives.

And not trying to set you hair on fire here , but I am on record on Redbird forum as saying Robinson may have been playing wih an injury from later in NDSU game or early in SDSU game. Against NDSU he had 20 carries for 128 yards, aganist SDSU he had 10 carries for 13 yards, against UNI it was 16 carries for 40 yards. I first noted it against SDSU because he just was not running hard or hitting holes like he did in the NDSU and prior games. I know it sounds like excuses, but you offered a few recentl for your Lamar game ... but I know what I saw and he was not the same for several weeks. And with Markel Smith in and out of doghouse several times and benched a few times, our RB options were limited at times .. Smith since agreed to part ways as grad transfer.

In any case, UNI came to play that game and we did not and it was our worst full game last year, and our QB/OL confidence was eroding .. so that may be why you were not impressed .. putting aside your thing for Spack. But we have a lot coming back, and we'll see if Davis steps his game up with full offseason now.

That aside, I think MVFC should be very competitive with teams 1 thru 7, maybe even 8 teams ... it feels a bit like 2014 and 2015 in terms of dominance .. been wrong before, but right now it looks promising. Got to play the games and prove it but I think this will be a 5 bid year for sure .. and maybe more on the bubble.
I watched Illinois State more than just the UNI game and have for years. Outside of the years with Tre and Coprich Spack is a .500 level coach that has shown zero ability to truly develop and grow talent to match the hype around them.

Outside of the two years with Tre and Coprich (whom I've said many many times was 85% of the reason those teams were good) he's 46-40 (34-30) in his time as a coach at ISUr. Hell, if you take out non-scholarship teams and non D1s (and transitional D2s) hes below .500 as a head coach. Even further his OOC wins are propped up even further with the rivalry game with a bad EIU team and then playing Morgan State, MVSU, etc. for the other OOC game. Against properly funded D1 programs he's not done well.

What is there to actually make me believe that in year 10 he finally figured out how to develop players that didn't come in from being a B10 Freshman Player of the Year or with the floor as high as Marshaun did?

He had Matt ****ing Brown who held/still holds 98% of the MVFC passing records when he graduated and he went 6-5 5-5 7-4 and finally 9-4 Brown's senior season - then immediately fell back to 5-6.


Spack is a ultra poor man's version of Mark Farley.

[Professor Chaos]

Well I've been doing most of the "boasting" here .. and I picked us 3rd. But yes, on the BOLD predictions thread, I said IF our QB plays closer to his ability this year, we will make noise in playoffs .. again, in the thread that asked for BOLD predictions. I've also said UNI should be right there too .. I just think we have edge with more returning.

By the way, our worst full game last year was against UNI .. it was the 3rd game in a stretch where we played NDSU, SDSU, UNI, and ISUb .. top 4 MVFC teams with 3 of 4 on road. You guys came ready and we did not. As for ISUb loss, statistically, we outplayed ISUb about the same as UNI did .. like 480 to 280 in total yards. But like all 4 of those losses, we imploded in Q2 and were outscored 71-0 ... many coming from TOs leading to TDs. Other than ISUb, we lost because we just were not good enough that day .. but statistically we were in every game except UNI, Q2 TOs killed our season .. lot of short field TDs, very few sustained drives.

And not trying to set you hair on fire here , but I am on record on Redbird forum as saying Robinson may have been playing wih an injury from later in NDSU game or early in SDSU game. Against NDSU he had 20 carries for 128 yards, aganist SDSU he had 10 carries for 13 yards, against UNI it was 16 carries for 40 yards. I first noted it against SDSU because he just was not running hard or hitting holes like he did in the NDSU and prior games. I know it sounds like excuses, but you offered a few recentl for your Lamar game ... but I know what I saw and he was not the same for several weeks. And with Markel Smith in and out of doghouse several times and benched a few times, our RB options were limited at times .. Smith since agreed to part ways as grad transfer.

In any case, UNI came to play that game and we did not and it was our worst full game last year, and our QB/OL confidence was eroding .. so that may be why you were not impressed .. putting aside your thing for Spack. But we have a lot coming back, and we'll see if Davis steps his game up with full offseason now.

That aside, I think MVFC should be very competitive with teams 1 thru 7, maybe even 8 teams ... it feels a bit like 2014 and 2015 in terms of dominance .. been wrong before, but right now it looks promising. Got to play the games and prove it but I think this will be a 5 bid year for sure .. and maybe more on the bubble.
This is a whole lot of words to describe Illinois St last year when you could've just said: "The season was over the moment Spack shaved the stache…. he should never ever ever ever do that again!"

[Redbird 4th & short]

This is a whole lot of words to describe Illinois St last year when you could've just said: "The season was over the moment Spack shaved the stache…. he should never ever ever ever do that again!"
truer words have never been spoken ... ironcally QB Davis already declared as much in a recent interview .. literally said when asked about it in interview, if that idea comes up again, I will shut it down immediately.

[SCPALADIN]

Flame away.......

Hello SCPALADIN,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 7/26/2019 12:48:30

Your vote is listed below.


1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: North Dakota State Bison
3: James Madison Dukes
4: Maine Black Bears
5: UC Davis Aggies
6: Eastern Washington Eagles
7: Illinois State Redbirds
8: Towson Tigers
9: Wofford Terriers
10: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
11: Weber State Wildcats
12: Furman Paladins
13: Nicholls State Colonels
14: Elon Phoenix
15: Central Arkansas Bears
16: Montana State Bobcats
17: Indiana State Sycamores
18: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
19: McNeese State Cowboys
20: Sam Houston State Bearkats
21: Colgate Raiders
22: Kennesaw State Owls
23: Mercer Bears
24: Montana Grizzlies
25: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens

SCPALADIN

The Most Significant Win:
The Most Significant Loss:
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Southern Conference

[nodak651]

No requirement to released. If/when I do I do it grouped in ranges of 10-15 and in alphabetical order - especially for a preseason poll

So...my top 15


EWU


ISUR


Jax St


JMU


KSU


Maine


Mon St


Montana


NDSU


SDSU


Towson


UCD


UNI


Weber


Wofford




15-25


Central Arkansas


Colgate


Dartmouth


Delaware


Elon


Furman


Indiana St


Nicholls


Princeton


Sam Houston St



Others considered/looked at closely - as close as I'll look at a preseason poll


Alcorn


Chatt


Citadel


Eastern Kentucky


McNeese


NCAT


Nova


Samford


SBU


SEMO


WIU


YALE


YSU




I think you should at least consider UND. Not a single vote in any of the polls, but they steamrolled your top 15 montana, beat your top 25 SHSU at SHSU, lost to your top 15 Weber by less than a touchdown, and they look to have a better team for 2019. There is more and better defensive depth on a very good defense, will have an older and deeper OL, will have a senior QB, and they finally replaced the worst offensive coordinator of all time with a guy who seems to actually be somewhat competent. All of the receivers are back, and these guys had tons of injuries last year which coincided with UND's slip at the end of the season. FYI, I don't think UND should be ranked right now, but I think they should at least be in the conversation.

[clenz]

I think you should at least consider UND. Not a single vote in any of the polls, but they steamrolled your top 15 montana, beat your top 25 SHSU at SHSU, lost to your top 15 Weber by less than a touchdown, and they look to have a better team for 2019. There is more and better defensive depth on a very good defense, will have an older and deeper OL, will have a senior QB, and they finally replaced the worst offensive coordinator of all time with a guy who seems to actually be somewhat competent. All of the receivers are back, and these guys had tons of injuries last year which coincided with UND's slip at the end of the season. FYI, I don't think UND should be ranked right now, but I think they should at least be in the conversation.
1. 2 score loss to 4-6 NAU
2. Loss to 4-7 Idaho
3. Loss to .500 vs D1 Idaho State
4. Your other wins were 1-10 MVSU 2-9 UNC 2-8 Sac State 4-7 Portland State
5. There is like 1 or 2 programs that don't think they aren't poised to be better the coming year than the year prior
6. You can't say that your OC is more competent - or seems competent - when he hasn't called a single play for UND



TL;DR - **** no I don't have to consider them.

Wait, just did. The answer is no where freaking close right now.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I watched Illinois State more than just the UNI game and have for years. Outside of the years with Tre and Coprich Spack is a .500 level coach that has shown zero ability to truly develop and grow talent to match the hype around them.

Outside of the two years with Tre and Coprich (whom I've said many many times was 85% of the reason those teams were good) he's 46-40 (34-30) in his time as a coach at ISUr. Hell, if you take out non-scholarship teams and non D1s (and transitional D2s) hes below .500 as a head coach. Even further his OOC wins are propped up even further with the rivalry game with a bad EIU team and then playing Morgan State, MVSU, etc. for the other OOC game. Against properly funded D1 programs he's not done well.

What is there to actually make me believe that in year 10 he finally figured out how to develop players that didn't come in from being a B10 Freshman Player of the Year or with the floor as high as Marshaun did?

He had Matt ****ing Brown who held/still holds 98% of the MVFC passing records when he graduated and he went 6-5 5-5 7-4 and finally 9-4 Brown's senior season - then immediately fell back to 5-6.


Spack is a ultra poor man's version of Mark Farley.

Like most coaches, he has his limitations ... but almost every year, he puts a strong team on the field .. strong defenses, strong run games, and pretty good special teams .. like many programs, he struggles to find the right QB and to develop a consistent pass game .. thi shas been our achilles heel the last 3 years ... been some impressive wins in those 3 years followed by equally unimpressive losses. But his teams always compete .. and you think he's a sh-t coach because he can't nail down the QB position consistently. But he keeps churning out great defenses and run games.

Remind me .. weren't you the guy who said Coprich was a fluke find for Spack and our run game would dissolve into nothing after he left ? Putting aside our other "fluke find" Robinson, we've lost 4 or 5 quality RBs in the last 4 years due to fact we had too many good RBs or 1 great RB. Note I'm pretty sure we found another one this year (not HS, but Juco transfer Proctor), plus added a nice trio of FR RBs ... so in 2020, we'll be talking about a whole new group of RBs at ISU.

So you are correct he struggles to find and develop HS QBs .... but you would have been wrong about Spacks ability to "find" another Coprich and consistently develope a run game .. right ?? Not to mention he keeps putting very tough defenses on the field almost every year .. does he get credit for those things as HC competing in the top conference in FCS .... or no ??

Lastly, in his 10 years, his teams have outperformed the MVFC preseason predictions 5 times in 10 years ... twice finishing 5 places higher than prediced by his peers (2010 and 2014); plus 3 more times he finished as predicted, and only twice (2013 and 2018) did he finish lower than predicted. This during time MVFC emerged as the clearly the best conference. So not sure about all this ISUr hype you speak of ... he has met or exceed the expectations of his peers 8 of 10 years. We're picked 3rd this year .. which is consistent with almost everyone's opinion out there .. so is that hype too ?

source: https://valley-football.org/documents/2019/7/29//2019_MVFC_Preseason_Poll.pdf?id=68

Just admit it, you have a thing for Spack and ISUr that colors your judgement.

[nodak651]

1. 2 score loss to 4-6 NAU
2. Loss to 4-7 Idaho
3. Loss to .500 vs D1 Idaho State
4. Your other wins were 1-10 MVSU 2-9 UNC 2-8 Sac State 4-7 Portland State
5. There is like 1 or 2 programs that don't think they aren't poised to be better the coming year than the year prior
6. You can't say that your OC is more competent - or seems competent - when he hasn't called a single play for UND



TL;DR - **** no I don't have to consider them.




LOL. Have you ever watched the old OC call a game? You sure have a strong opinion for a pre season discussion... The good thing is that we can see how the season plays out. xpopcornx

Edit: Idaho State also wasn't a bad team at the beginning of the season, and they were in the playoff picture right up to their last game... took UC Davis to OT at Davis, put up 750 yards of offense against Idaho, nearly took down FBS Liberty, and they also beat your top 15 Montana State.

[Redbird 4th & short]

1. 2 score loss to 4-6 NAU
2. Loss to 4-7 Idaho
3. Loss to .500 vs D1 Idaho State
4. Your other wins were 1-10 MVSU 2-9 UNC 2-8 Sac State 4-7 Portland State
5. There is like 1 or 2 programs that don't think they aren't poised to be better the coming year than the year prior
6. You can't say that your OC is more competent - or seems competent - when he hasn't called a single play for UND



TL;DR - **** no I don't have to consider them.

Wait, just did. The answer is no where freaking close right now.
other consideration .. last year, UND went 6-5 and didn't have to play 3 of the top 4 Big Sky teams ... EWU, UCD, or Mont St .. they only played Weber St at home. This season they have to play all 4, plus they play NDSU (instead of an FBS). Then they also play at Idaho St, who they lost to at home last year. Then they pick up Cal Poly this year, again on road. So of your 7 toughest games, 5 are on road ... and 5 you didn't even play last year .. a year you went 6-5 against very soft SOS compared to this year. It is possible UND will be better team this year like he thinks and still finish with worse record.

On very related note ... this is what MVFC goes thru every year .. we almost always play all the best teams in conference because we have just 10 teams. Whereas in Big Sky (14 teams) and Colonial (12 teams) ... this is not usually the case. Simple math and clearly illustrates why 7-4 in MVFC is almost always better than 7-4 in Colonial or Big Sky .. again, simple math .. when all the good teams play each other, someone has to lose .. that doesn't happen as often in Colonial and Big Sky as it does in MVFC. Maine doesn't have to play 3 of the other top 6 Colonial teams again this year .. that's 3 losses that aren't as likely to happen to upper Colonial teams because Maine will play 3 much weaker teams and likely win. It would turn 8-3 teams into 7-4 teams or worse if they all played everyone at top of conference.

[IBleedYellow]

UND fans are trying to find something to cling to and you guys come in here crushing them more than their prestigious hockey team can when they fail to win another playoff game.

Keep it up.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

[F'N Hawks]

Right, cause Montana looked really ****ing good last year. They deserve Top 25 recognition fo sho.

[Daytripper]

UND fans are trying to find something to cling to and you guys come in here crushing them more than their prestigious hockey team can when they fail to win another playoff game.

Keep it up.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

I have faith that UND will be competitive...Rumor is they have been working out like mad this offseason.

[gofurman]

Yea, I didn't have any Ivy's in my poll and the greatest team in FCS last year, Princeton, would have kicked their asses. xlolx I kept expecting for somebody to jam me up for excluding Furman in my poll. I guess nobody is paying attention. I flipped a coin with them and Towson for the 25th spot in the poll, Towson won.

Also, I am now able to get the emoji's to work in my replies, bitchin.

Furman fan here - can't argue with a coin flip :D.. After we start off with a win you can throw us a bone at 22nd or so .. :)

[nodak651]

UND fans are trying to find something to cling to and you guys come in here crushing them more than their prestigious hockey team can when they fail to win another playoff game.

Keep it up.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Don't worry. Not crushed. The commentary here is predictable.

[F'N Hawks]

I have faith that UND will be competitive...Rumor is they have been working out like mad this offseason.
It was insane I guess. Bordering on not even healthy. How many times can a guy power clean in a day!?!

[cx500d]

It was insane I guess. Bordering on not even healthy. How many times can a guy power clean in a day!?!

So you recommend power washers for cleaning toilets?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Thumper 76]

Don't worry. Not crushed. The commentary here is accurate.

FYP.

It’s preseason. All of the reasons that UND “looks to be” improved are a bunch of hypotheticals based off of one close game with a good team and a decent win over two meh teams (IMO) and a coordinator change from (and only from) fans of the team. There hasn’t been anybody else not a fan of UND who was beating that drum. That should tell you something.

[JSUSoutherner]

So you recommend power washers for cleaning toilets?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Depends. Some of them I would just recommend thermite.

[POD Knows]

Furman fan here - can't argue with a coin flip :D.. After we start off with a win you can throw us a bone at 22nd or so .. :)If you beat CSU by 50 I will take a look.

[Redbird 4th & short]

UND did show some spark last year, but are also in for rude awakening when their SOS goes from Massey #43 to maybe top 15 .. playing 4 new teams, 3 of which were top 8 from last year, plus adding round of 16 finisher Mont St at home .. then they also play both Idaho St and Cal Poly (they split playing at home) both on road this year .. likely 5 losses or more just in those toughest 7 games on their 2019 schedue with 5 on road. So a "good" season for UND could mean 7-5 at best ... but nearly everyone loses a game or 2 that they shouldn't have .. so thinking 6-6 is a pretty good year for UND compared to last .. +/- 1 game.

UND fan ... how many starters back on offense and defense ?

[F'N Hawks]

UND did show some spark last year, but are also in for rude awakening when their SOS goes from Massey #43 to maybe top 15 .. playing 4 new teams, 3 of which were top 8 from last year, plus adding round of 16 finisher Mont St at home .. then they also play both Idaho St and Cal Poly (they split playing at home) both on road this year .. likely 5 losses or more just in those toughest 7 games on their 2019 schedue with 5 on road. So a "good" season for UND could mean 7-5 at best ... but nearly everyone loses a game or 2 that they shouldn't have .. so thinking 6-6 is a pretty good year for UND compared to last .. +/- 1 game.

UND fan ... how many starters back on offense and defense ?

Appreciate the insight. To show how fickle these things are it took UND collapsing late due to a number of reasons, two of which got fired, to NOT make the playoffs. If they win at Idaho or NAU they are in the playoffs and more than likely in everybody's Top 25. Montana didn't piss a drop last year, was the worst team I watched UND play all year, and is in everybody's Top 25. Just the way it goes.

They have 14 starters back, with QB being one and all their leading tacklers. They will be a better team but like you said, the schedule is the toughest in FCS for a reason. There is a real chance they start out 2-4 or so and end 6-5 or 7-4. Playing teams the level of SHSU, NDSU, EWU and UCD in the first five weeks of the year is pretty much unprecedented.

[clenz]

Appreciate the insight. To show how fickle these things are it took UND collapsing late due to a number of reasons, two of which got fired, to NOT make the playoffs. If they win at Idaho or NAU they are in the playoffs and more than likely in everybody's Top 25. Montana didn't piss a drop last year, was the worst team I watched UND play all year, and is in everybody's Top 25. Just the way it goes.

They have 14 starters back, with QB being one and all their leading tacklers. They will be a better team but like you said, the schedule is the toughest in FCS for a reason. There is a real chance they start out 2-4 or so and end 6-5 or 7-4. Playing teams the level of SHSU, NDSU, EWU and UCD in the first five weeks of the year is pretty much unprecedented.If UNI didn't blow a 4th quarter lead after having 400 yards of offense in the first 3 quarters they finish 2nd in the valley and are in everyone's top 10 last season.

Would have had a 33-0 win against top 25 Indiana State, win vs #1 NDSU, win vs top 5 SDSU, win vs ISUr who was in the 20-25 range all years.

Potential 7 or 8 seed

Then who knows.

But they didn't. And it didn't.



Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

[POD Knows]

UND did show some spark last year, but are also in for rude awakening when their SOS goes from Massey #43 to maybe top 15 .. playing 4 new teams, 3 of which were top 8 from last year, plus adding round of 16 finisher Mont St at home .. then they also play both Idaho St and Cal Poly (they split playing at home) both on road this year .. likely 5 losses or more just in those toughest 7 games on their 2019 schedue with 5 on road. So a "good" season for UND could mean 7-5 at best ... but nearly everyone loses a game or 2 that they shouldn't have .. so thinking 6-6 is a pretty good year for UND compared to last .. +/- 1 game.

UND fan ... how many starters back on offense and defense ?I think they only play 11 games, they will be 6-5

[MR. CHICKEN]

.....BE DAMNED....FARLEY!................AWK!

[F'N Hawks]

If UNI didn't blow a 4th quarter lead after having 400 yards of offense in the first 3 quarters they finish 2nd in the valley and are in everyone's top 10 last season.

Would have had a 33-0 win against top 25 Indiana State, win vs #1 NDSU, win vs top 5 SDSU, win vs ISUr who was in the 20-25 range all years.

Potential 7 or 8 seed

Then who knows.

But they didn't. And it didn't.



Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Fascinating - if we were talking about UNI.

Sent from my Nokia 5110 using AOL

[IBleedYellow]

UND needs to give Bubba a lifetime contract. That would make the other 3 Dakota schools pretty happy.

As for what happens to UND this year? I think they take a step back. They have a super difficult schedule and last year with their super easy schedule they did nothing with it.

[Bisonator]

It's preseason, fall camps haven't even started and fawkers are already whining.......
http://bp1.blogger.com/_nK09cyL8Ihw/SBCGufgeCbI/AAAAAAAAAJM/o-XNQC0c_g0/w1200-h630-p-k-no-nu/respect.jpg

[clenz]

Fascinating - if we were talking about UNI.

Sent from my Nokia 5110 using AOL
I was pointing out how silly your "ifs and but" scenario about last year was

[clenz]

Like most coaches, he has his limitations ... but almost every year, he puts a strong team on the field .. strong defenses, strong run games, and pretty good special teams .. like many programs, he struggles to find the right QB and to develop a consistent pass game .. thi shas been our achilles heel the last 3 years ... been some impressive wins in those 3 years followed by equally unimpressive losses. But his teams always compete .. and you think he's a sh-t coach because he can't nail down the QB position consistently. But he keeps churning out great defenses and run games.

Remind me .. weren't you the guy who said Coprich was a fluke find for Spack and our run game would dissolve into nothing after he left ? Putting aside our other "fluke find" Robinson, we've lost 4 or 5 quality RBs in the last 4 years due to fact we had too many good RBs or 1 great RB. Note I'm pretty sure we found another one this year (not HS, but Juco transfer Proctor), plus added a nice trio of FR RBs ... so in 2020, we'll be talking about a whole new group of RBs at ISU.

So you are correct he struggles to find and develop HS QBs .... but you would have been wrong about Spacks ability to "find" another Coprich and consistently develope a run game .. right ?? Not to mention he keeps putting very tough defenses on the field almost every year .. does he get credit for those things as HC competing in the top conference in FCS .... or no ??

Lastly, in his 10 years, his teams have outperformed the MVFC preseason predictions 5 times in 10 years ... twice finishing 5 places higher than prediced by his peers (2010 and 2014); plus 3 more times he finished as predicted, and only twice (2013 and 2018) did he finish lower than predicted. This during time MVFC emerged as the clearly the best conference. So not sure about all this ISUr hype you speak of ... he has met or exceed the expectations of his peers 8 of 10 years. We're picked 3rd this year .. which is consistent with almost everyone's opinion out there .. so is that hype too ?

source: https://valley-football.org/documents/2019/7/29//2019_MVFC_Preseason_Poll.pdf?id=68

Just admit it, you have a thing for Spack and ISUr that colors your judgement.
A "thing" no? No more than any other school.

I guess congrats on being able to go 6-5 and out perform expectations. That's...quite an accomplishment? The 7 years he hasn't had Tre and Coprich lined up in the back field his average record is essentially 6-5 (4-4). So yes...congrats on being able to 6-5 (4-4) and out perform expectations.

Even more so, I guess I would be worried about how much talent you talk about having year after year after year after year with Spack - always talk about having one of the best defenses in the conference, always have the top running game, amazing talent at the WR position, etc. All that talent and still finishing an average of 6-5 (4-4).

At least I admit UNI has been a major disappointment over the same time Spack has been at ISUr. Even with me thinking the program has been extremely disapointing the last decade the average is 8-5 (5-3)

[nodak651]

FYP.

It’s preseason. All of the reasons that UND “looks to be” improved are a bunch of hypotheticals based off of one close game with a good team and a decent win over two meh teams (IMO) and a coordinator change from (and only from) fans of the team. There hasn’t been anybody else not a fan of UND who was beating that drum. That should tell you something.

Same with every single other team. UND faded at the end of the season as injuries piled up. The team has more depth this year. FCS pre season predictions are usually hit and miss, so I don't see what the big deal is in me saying that UND should at least be in the conversation for the top 25. Rankings for both Montana schools are based on hypotheticals as well, no?

[clenz]

other consideration .. last year, UND went 6-5 and didn't have to play 3 of the top 4 Big Sky teams ... EWU, UCD, or Mont St .. they only played Weber St at home. This season they have to play all 4, plus they play NDSU (instead of an FBS). Then they also play at Idaho St, who they lost to at home last year. Then they pick up Cal Poly this year, again on road. So of your 7 toughest games, 5 are on road ... and 5 you didn't even play last year .. a year you went 6-5 against very soft SOS compared to this year. It is possible UND will be better team this year like he thinks and still finish with worse record.

On very related note ... this is what MVFC goes thru every year .. we almost always play all the best teams in conference because we have just 10 teams. Whereas in Big Sky (14 teams) and Colonial (12 teams) ... this is not usually the case. Simple math and clearly illustrates why 7-4 in MVFC is almost always better than 7-4 in Colonial or Big Sky .. again, simple math .. when all the good teams play each other, someone has to lose .. that doesn't happen as often in Colonial and Big Sky as it does in MVFC. Maine doesn't have to play 3 of the other top 6 Colonial teams again this year .. that's 3 losses that aren't as likely to happen to upper Colonial teams because Maine will play 3 much weaker teams and likely win. It would turn 8-3 teams into 7-4 teams or worse if they all played everyone at top of conference.
When you get 4th & short and myself to agree on something you really should wonder how wrong you are.

[F'N Hawks]

I was pointing out how silly your "ifs and but" scenario about last year was

My point was how fickle these things can be. Why is Montana ranked by everyone? They were average last year, 6-5, and have a tough schedule.
I predict a slight drop-off for Montana State, even though their schedule is easy.

[Redbird 4th & short]

A "thing" no? No more than any other school.

I guess congrats on being able to go 6-5 and out perform expectations. That's...quite an accomplishment? The 7 years he hasn't had Tre and Coprich lined up in the back field his average record is essentially 6-5 (4-4). So yes...congrats on being able to 6-5 (4-4) and out perform expectations.

Even more so, I guess I would be worried about how much talent you talk about having year after year after year after year with Spack - always talk about having one of the best defenses in the conference, always have the top running game, amazing talent at the WR position, etc. All that talent and still finishing an average of 6-5 (4-4).

At least I admit UNI has been a major disappointment over the same time Spack has been at ISUr. Even with me thinking the program has been extremely disapointing the last decade the average is 8-5 (5-3)
You're moving several goal posts on me there ... and the post is just oozing with narcissism.

First, you talked about all the hype over ISUr every year. I am wondering what hype you're talking about and from who ?? If it is based on my posts (i.e. hype) .. well sh-t, you need to get a life .. I'm a fan who likes his football program. So what hype are you talking about ?

As for you deciding for everyone how to define the cutoff for a good coach, let's walk thru the entire MVFC and look at each teams results compare to ISUr .. if they don't measure up to ISUr or UNI, are they all sh-t coaches not worthy of their hype and should be fired ?? Now let's take this discussion across all of FCS .... how many more don't measure up to ISUr or UNI .. going to figure about 100 more FCS fall well short of the standard you set for us all .. right ?

2nd thing .. does anone but a complete narcisist say some like this without even realizing how out of control he is with his opinions ? Step back from this and take a deep breath, then read back what you said here ..... breath .... think ..... now read it back real slow:

"At least I admit UNI has been a major disappointment over the same time Spack has been at ISUr. Even with me thinking the program has been extremely disapointing the last decade the average is 8-5 (5-3)"

You expect me to think like you, "at least" ?? Really ??? You're the standard for how to think about our coaches and whether we shouod be disappointed or not ? For just me ? Or for every team in MVFC or .. shoot all of FCS ? You'll decide this for us ?


Get over yourself dude.

[clenz]

You're moving several goal posts on me there ... and the post is just oozing with narcissism.

First, you talked about all the hype over ISUr every year. I am wondering what hype you're talking about and from who ?? If it is based on my posts (i.e. hype) .. well sh-t, you need to get a life .. I'm a fan who likes his football program. So what hype are you talking about ?

As for you deciding for everyone how to define the cutoff for a good coach, let's walk thru the entire MVFC and look at each teams results compare to ISUr .. if they don't measure up to ISUr or UNI, are they all sh-t coaches not worthy of their hype and should be fired ?? Now let's take this discussion across all of FCS .... how many more don't measure up to ISUr or UNI .. going to figure about 100 more FCS fall well short of the standard you set for us all .. right ?

2nd thing .. does anone but a complete narcisist say some like this without even realizing how out of control he is with his opinions ? Step back from this and take a deep breath, then read back what you said here ..... breath .... think ..... now read it back real slow:

"At least I admit UNI has been a major disappointment over the same time Spack has been at ISUr. Even with me thinking the program has been extremely disapointing the last decade the average is 8-5 (5-3)"

You expect me to think like you, "at least" ?? Really ??? You're the standard for how to think about our coaches and whether we shouod be disappointed or not ? For just me ? Or for every team in MVFC or .. shoot all of FCS ? You'll decide this for us ?


Get over yourself dude.Would you like to retype this in a way that is intelligible

[Redbird 4th & short]

Would you like to retype this in a way that is intelligible
wrote it quick, since I'm at work ... but have you seen some of your posts ?

try googling narcissist and selective memory

[ursus arctos horribilis]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGaHqk2NJPI

[Reign of Terrier]

Am I the only one who thinks finishing 6-5 (4-4) every year in any conference, no matter how good it may be, just says you're a completely average program?

Even if you look at the MVFC teams that finish 7-5 or 6-5 and make the playoffs, their record isn't exactly spectacular. Yes, they get some wins against some mediocre teams like Dayton and they do often get eliminated by another MVFC team because of regionalization in the second round. But usually, this second round loss is by like 3 scores and it's not convincingly argued that this effort is better than "power" conference teams 8-4 teams. UNI this past season was the exception, but they were the third place team.

Redbird's shtick is to whine about the MVFC not getting enough playoff spots or fair treatment (lol) because his team perennially can't close, especially in the last couple of years. If we just privilege the computer rankings and the near-misses, everything would be right in the world (meaning his team would be in the playoffs).

Meanwhile, the games aren't played completely on computers. Computers only provide a forecast and FCS forecasting is prone to more errors relative to other sports like basketball and baseball with more sample, stats, etc. The same logic that said "YSU is a top 10 team because they lost 4 games really close in 2017" (or whatever it was) would put the probability of losing to Butler at home in week one last year really really really low.

And yet it happened.

The MVFC is the best conference in the FCS with presence of NDSU, SDSU, UNI and the competitive nature of the next 4-5 other teams. The competitive nature of those other teams usually has us talking about another team worthy of playoff consideration between ISUR/ISUB/Western Illinois/Youngstown State. But let's not be fooled. Unless those latter 4 teams usurp UNI or SDSU for third place in the MVFC they're historically not likely to make any sort of playoff run. The only MVFC team to not embarrass itself when entering the field with less than 7 total wins is UNI. Everyone else not so much.

The reason why is because what translates to playoff wins and executing in conference is the ability to close these games out. No doubt most of the SEC east is probably on average better than most of the FBS world, but when Kentucky/UofSC/Vanderbilt/Tennessee/Missouri play a decent opponent in a bowl game, it's definitely not a sure thing, in fact they just as often win as lose, especially when their opponents are from the power five. But that doesn't stop computer rankings like Massey from loving the SEC; they had Missouri ranked like 10th late in the season last year. For me, the same logic applies when evaluating these 6-5/7-4 with a D2 win teams in the MVFC not named UNI/NDSU/SDSU. Maybe they're a black sheep. Maybe they're like the UofSC teams that had Jadeveon Clowney and Marcus Lattimore and dominated Clemson. But looking at history, that's not likely. Finish in your conference top 3, then we'll talk.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Am I the only one who thinks finishing 6-5 (4-4) every year in any conference, no matter how good it may be, just says you're a completely average program?

Even if you look at the MVFC teams that finish 7-5 or 6-5 and make the playoffs, their record isn't exactly spectacular. Yes, they get some wins against some mediocre teams like Dayton and they do often get eliminated by another MVFC team because of regionalization in the second round. But usually, this second round loss is by like 3 scores and it's not convincingly argued that this effort is better than "power" conference teams 8-4 teams. UNI this past season was the exception, but they were the third place team.

Redbird's shtick is to whine about the MVFC not getting enough playoff spots or fair treatment (lol) because his team perennially can't close, especially in the last couple of years. If we just privilege the computer rankings and the near-misses, everything would be right in the world (meaning his team would be in the playoffs).

Meanwhile, the games aren't played completely on computers. Computers only provide a forecast and FCS forecasting is prone to more errors relative to other sports like basketball and baseball with more sample, stats, etc. The same logic that said "YSU is a top 10 team because they lost 4 games really close in 2017" (or whatever it was) would put the probability of losing to Butler at home in week one last year really really really low.

And yet it happened.

The MVFC is the best conference in the FCS with presence of NDSU, SDSU, UNI and the competitive nature of the next 4-5 other teams. The competitive nature of those other teams usually has us talking about another team worthy of playoff consideration between ISUR/ISUB/Western Illinois/Youngstown State. But let's not be fooled. Unless those latter 4 teams usurp UNI or SDSU for third place in the MVFC they're historically not likely to make any sort of playoff run. The only MVFC team to not embarrass itself when entering the field with less than 7 total wins is UNI. Everyone else not so much.

The reason why is because what translates to playoff wins and executing in conference is the ability to close these games out. No doubt most of the SEC east is probably on average better than most of the FBS world, but when Kentucky/UofSC/Vanderbilt/Tennessee/Missouri play a decent opponent in a bowl game, it's definitely not a sure thing, in fact they just as often win as lose, especially when their opponents are from the power five. But that doesn't stop computer rankings like Massey from loving the SEC; they had Missouri ranked like 10th late in the season last year. For me, the same logic applies when evaluating these 6-5/7-4 with a D2 win teams in the MVFC not named UNI/NDSU/SDSU. Maybe they're a black sheep. Maybe they're like the UofSC teams that had Jadeveon Clowney and Marcus Lattimore and dominated Clemson. But looking at history, that's not likely. Finish in your conference top 3, then we'll talk.
you want to do this all over again ?

So you're saying 6-5 MVFC team that goes 4-4 in conf is an average team ? Even if 3 of those 4 losses were to top 12 teams ? And the 4th to an top 25 teams. And 1 of those 5 losses were to an FBS team ? Does the word average require any consideration for strength of schedule ?? or is that too complicated to understand ? 4--4 being average for MVFC .. sure, yes. Now 4-4 in MEAC or Pioneer .. The 4-4 MVFC would be top 20 in FCS, whereas the 4-4 Pioneer team might be luck to make the top 100 in FCS.

The other point is basic math ... Colonial has 12 teams, so each team can only play 8 of 11 possible opponents. Big Sky as 14 teams, so they each play 8 of 13 possible opponents. In the case of Colonial, I counted how many head to head games among their 6 playoff teams were NOT played last year ... and there were 9 games not played. If those 9 games were all played among the top 6 teams .. they wold have generated a combined 9-9 record ... which means, those 6 teams would have had 9 more losses spread among them come playoff selection time. Granted there were 9 other games played against weaker opponents, and maybe there were 2 upsets .. so adjust the 9 by 2 less and there would have been 7 more losses instead for the Colonial top 6 ... then how many would have made playoffs ?

Both things are a real thing and should be fully considered when ranking teams and picking playoff teams. So to answer your question again ... no, 4-4 in MVFC is not average for FCS, it is above average and probably makes you a top 20 team. It is only average within the MVFC .. but the question must take into account all of FCS and both factors outlined above.

Want some proof above holds true .. go back to thread I posted about conference playoff results where MVFC excl NDSU still has the best playoff record of any conf since 2011 - that is indisputable and no computers involved. Note the results would be even stronger if I had factored out inter-conf playoff games, not to mention counted home vs road games. Want still more proof .... you can also look to the Massey Composite of all 40 polls/systems going back to yearend every year since 2011 .. granted many are computer rankings, but some are not. It basically reaches same conclusions in terms of it's average rankings ... and yes, 4-4 MVFC teams are ranked well above average compared to 4-4 teams from other conferences ... avg of 40 polls.

So no .. 4-4 in MVFC is not average .. no matter how high Clenz sets his bar for all of us.

[F'N Hawks]

Part of the problem with Massey is coming into the season it's so heavily skewed from all their prior seasons conference rankings, which were heavily skewed to opponents, not wins.
Like South Dakota being a preseason top 20 in Massey. All based on who else they play in their conference, not on who they ever beat.
UND we'll probably get a huge boost next year in the preseason Massey rankings as well.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Part of the problem with Massey is coming into the season it's so heavily skewed from all their prior seasons conference rankings, which were heavily skewed to opponents, not wins.
Like South Dakota being a preseason top 20 in Massey. All based on who else they play in their conference, not on who they ever beat.
UND we'll probably get a huge boost next year in the preseason Massey rankings as well.
agree to some extent, but it is most certainly based on wins-losses, margins and SOS ... and yes, the SOS component can get a little skewed later in season. There is a cluster affect for really good conferences in the Massey Computer ranking towards season end. I think it works best about 6 to 8 games into season. That is when database is considered "statistically well connected", plus there is nice cross samplnig of OOC and conf games.

BUt I don't look to Massey for ranking teams or Sagarin, just for SOS because they make it easy. But I do mentally discount numbers as we get late in season. That said, you still have to be able compete. not just play good teams to get higher ranking. But yes, it does get inflated by last few games for dominant teams.

When I talk about good sources for ranking teams using Massey, I'm referring to the Massey Composite of 40 polls, of which Massey is just 1 of 40. I've said before, once we get a few weeks into season, the most credible subjective poll out there has become AGS. Early season is usually a crap shoot with any poll .. but AGS zero's in on the most reasonable rankings the quickest.

Been eagerly awaiting the keepratings site to be updated for FCS ... kind of wonder if something came up for him, he's been close to done for a while .. but nothing released yet. His preseason window is closing.

[uni88]

I was pointing out how silly your "ifs and but" scenario about last year was

"If ifs and buts were candies and nuts we'd all have a merry Christmas" :D

[Thumper 76]

My point was how fickle these things can be. Why is Montana ranked by everyone? They were average last year, 6-5, and have a tough schedule.
I predict a slight drop-off for Montana State, even though their schedule is easy.

Spoiler alert, if they’re number 25 they weren’t voted for by everyone.

[JSUSoutherner]

Spoiler alert, if they’re number 25 they weren’t voted for by everyone.

What if they were voted 25th, unanimously?

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Part of the problem with Massey is coming into the season it's so heavily skewed from all their prior seasons conference rankings, which were heavily skewed to opponents, not wins.
Like South Dakota being a preseason top 20 in Massey. All based on who else they play in their conference, not on who they ever beat.
UND we'll probably get a huge boost next year in the preseason Massey rankings as well.


South Dakota/Montana could be a must win for both teams. USD loses they will lose the next week to Oklahoma and Montana will lose to Oregon 2 weeks later.

[UIWWildthing]

Towson 13th? Looks fine to me. Looking forward to that Towson/Maine matchup early on.

[POD Knows]

Towson 13th? Looks fine to me. Looking forward to that Towson/Maine matchup early on.Maybe you can get in the playoffs and get rolled by Drake :D

[Professor Chaos]

What if they were voted 25th, unanimously?
Then they would've slotted right below Yale at #31. :D

[Reign of Terrier]

you want to do this all over again ?

So you're saying 6-5 MVFC team that goes 4-4 in conf is an average team ? Even if 3 of those 4 losses were to top 12 teams ? And the 4th to an top 25 teams. And 1 of those 5 losses were to an FBS team ? Does the word average require any consideration for strength of schedule ?? or is that too complicated to understand ? 4--4 being average for MVFC .. sure, yes. Now 4-4 in MEAC or Pioneer .. The 4-4 MVFC would be top 20 in FCS, whereas the 4-4 Pioneer team might be luck to make the top 100 in FCS.

The other point is basic math ... Colonial has 12 teams, so each team can only play 8 of 11 possible opponents. Big Sky as 14 teams, so they each play 8 of 13 possible opponents. In the case of Colonial, I counted how many head to head games among their 6 playoff teams were NOT played last year ... and there were 9 games not played. If those 9 games were all played among the top 6 teams .. they wold have generated a combined 9-9 record ... which means, those 6 teams would have had 9 more losses spread among them come playoff selection time. Granted there were 9 other games played against weaker opponents, and maybe there were 2 upsets .. so adjust the 9 by 2 less and there would have been 7 more losses instead for the Colonial top 6 ... then how many would have made playoffs ?

Both things are a real thing and should be fully considered when ranking teams and picking playoff teams. So to answer your question again ... no, 4-4 in MVFC is not average for FCS, it is above average and probably makes you a top 20 team. It is only average within the MVFC .. but the question must take into account all of FCS and both factors outlined above.

Want some proof above holds true .. go back to thread I posted about conference playoff results where MVFC excl NDSU still has the best playoff record of any conf since 2011 - that is indisputable and no computers involved. Note the results would be even stronger if I had factored out inter-conf playoff games, not to mention counted home vs road games. Want still more proof .... you can also look to the Massey Composite of all 40 polls/systems going back to yearend every year since 2011 .. granted many are computer rankings, but some are not. It basically reaches same conclusions in terms of it's average rankings ... and yes, 4-4 MVFC teams are ranked well above average compared to 4-4 teams from other conferences ... avg of 40 polls.

So no .. 4-4 in MVFC is not average .. no matter how high Clenz sets his bar for all of us.

To answer your rhetorical question, a 6-5/7-4 with 1 d2 win (4-4) MVFC team is an average team compared to the average team of the CAA, Big Sky, and Southern team, yes. Unless that team is UNI, in which case they're above average. I didn't say that the team was on par with the average FCS team, in fact I implied they're better than the average FCS program, but compared to the average "power" conferences, a 7-4/6-5 (4-4) ISUB, ISUR, YSU, and Western Illinois are quite average.

The rest of your post is reaching for straws and fundamentally misunderstands how computer rankings and polling works. It's pretty irrelevant and kinda shows that you didn't actually read my post.

Your "My team can't close so let's argue that the MVFC is the best conference ever so we can get playoff consideration" shtick is obvious to pretty much everyone.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm old enough to remember in 2007 when Elon/Georgia Southern beat Wofford, as did Georgia Southern beat App State. That was the year App State won their third national title in a row and beat Michigan.

Granted, this was over a decade ago, but we didn't see the logic of "wE'rE rIpPeD oFf" like redbird from the socon crowd. The Citadel only lost to the big 3 and Wisconsin, and Georgia Southern had two of the best wins in the FCS that year, but the mere fact that these teams did not get to 7 D1 wins and had dropped a couple games in conference was evidence that they didn't deserve a spot. Maybe 1-2 of those teams gets in with 24 teams in an expanded field, but my point is, teams not named NDSU/SDSU/UNI from the MVFC like to claim some vicarious privilege just for being in the same conference as those three that has been largely absent from most other conferences' fans

[clenz]

What if they were voted 25th, unanimously?
They won't have the points to get into the poll, would be my guess.

[Redbird 4th & short]

To answer your rhetorical question, a 6-5/7-4 with 1 d2 win (4-4) MVFC team is an average team compared to the average team of the CAA, Big Sky, and Southern team, yes. Unless that team is UNI, in which case they're above average. I didn't say that the team was on par with the average FCS team, in fact I implied they're better than the average FCS program, but compared to the average "power" conferences, a 7-4/6-5 (4-4) ISUB, ISUR, YSU, and Western Illinois are quite average.

The rest of your post is reaching for straws and fundamentally misunderstands how computer rankings and polling works. It's pretty irrelevant and kinda shows that you didn't actually read my post.

Your "My team can't close so let's argue that the MVFC is the best conference ever so we can get playoff consideration" shtick is obvious to pretty much everyone.
You throw D-II in there like it is common thing .. it almost never happens, so not sure why you would use that as your rhetorical example .. right ???

You only acknowledged the WIU won over Dayton as an example of a 3-5th place MVFC team beating a 1-3rd place team from another conference .. but I know, you've previously moved your goal posts back twice on that statement eaarlier in our exchange .. because I gave you 7 or 8 examples that factually disputed your original blanket claim .. and you only mention the LEAST impressive example of the 7 or 8 I gave you .... right ???

You refuse to ever acknowledge the indisputable point, that MVFC excl NDSU having the best playoff record since 2011 means anything .... even while many of those wins involved 4-4 MVFC teams against higher placed teams from other conferences .. no computers, no nothing .. indisputable ... right ???

Just for you Reign (and general consumption) as we head into this season, I'm going to figure out the playoff results for 2011-18 and count the home vs away games by MVFC, Colonial, and Big Sky ... and further noting how all the 4-4 teams did from each conference.

I look forward to you completely ignoring those indisputable results and how much they contradict your argument.

[nodak651]

You throw D-II in there like it is common thing .. it almost never happens, so not sure why you would use that as your rhetorical example .. right ???

You only acknowledged the WIU won over Dayton as an example of a 3-5th place MVFC team beating a 1-3rd place team from another conference .. but I know, you've previously moved your goal posts back twice on that statement eaarlier in our exchange .. because I gave you 7 or 8 examples that factually disputed your original blanket claim .. and you only mention the LEAST impressive example of the 7 or 8 I gave you .... right ???

You refuse to ever acknowledge the indisputable point, that MVFC excl NDSU having the best playoff record since 2011 means anything .... even while many of those wins involved 4-4 MVFC teams against higher placed teams from other conferences .. no computers, no nothing .. indisputable ... right ???

Just for you Reign (and general consumption) as we head into this season, I'm going to figure out the playoff results for 2011-18 and count the home vs away games by MVFC, Colonial, and Big Sky ... and further noting how all the 4-4 teams did from each conference.

I look forward to you completely ignoring those indisputable results and how much they contradict your argument.

I would be interested in seeing how many games were played by one conference, vs each conference. Something like this is would be super cool.

30978

[cx500d]

Maybe you can get in the playoffs and get rolled by Drake :D

It was Duquesne


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ngineer]

Am I the only one who thinks finishing 6-5 (4-4) every year in any conference, no matter how good it may be, just says you're a completely average program?

Even if you look at the MVFC teams that finish 7-5 or 6-5 and make the playoffs, their record isn't exactly spectacular. Yes, they get some wins against some mediocre teams like Dayton and they do often get eliminated by another MVFC team because of regionalization in the second round. But usually, this second round loss is by like 3 scores and it's not convincingly argued that this effort is better than "power" conference teams 8-4 teams. UNI this past season was the exception, but they were the third place team.

Redbird's shtick is to whine about the MVFC not getting enough playoff spots or fair treatment (lol) because his team perennially can't close, especially in the last couple of years. If we just privilege the computer rankings and the near-misses, everything would be right in the world (meaning his team would be in the playoffs).

Meanwhile, the games aren't played completely on computers. Computers only provide a forecast and FCS forecasting is prone to more errors relative to other sports like basketball and baseball with more sample, stats, etc. The same logic that said "YSU is a top 10 team because they lost 4 games really close in 2017" (or whatever it was) would put the probability of losing to Butler at home in week one last year really really really low.

And yet it happened.

The MVFC is the best conference in the FCS with presence of NDSU, SDSU, UNI and the competitive nature of the next 4-5 other teams. The competitive nature of those other teams usually has us talking about another team worthy of playoff consideration between ISUR/ISUB/Western Illinois/Youngstown State. But let's not be fooled. Unless those latter 4 teams usurp UNI or SDSU for third place in the MVFC they're historically not likely to make any sort of playoff run. The only MVFC team to not embarrass itself when entering the field with less than 7 total wins is UNI. Everyone else not so much.

The reason why is because what translates to playoff wins and executing in conference is the ability to close these games out. No doubt most of the SEC east is probably on average better than most of the FBS world, but when Kentucky/UofSC/Vanderbilt/Tennessee/Missouri play a decent opponent in a bowl game, it's definitely not a sure thing, in fact they just as often win as lose, especially when their opponents are from the power five. But that doesn't stop computer rankings like Massey from loving the SEC; they had Missouri ranked like 10th late in the season last year. For me, the same logic applies when evaluating these 6-5/7-4 with a D2 win teams in the MVFC not named UNI/NDSU/SDSU. Maybe they're a black sheep. Maybe they're like the UofSC teams that had Jadeveon Clowney and Marcus Lattimore and dominated Clemson. But looking at history, that's not likely. Finish in your conference top 3, then we'll talk.

At the end of the day you are what your record says you are. I surmise every team can go back and look at film and point to several plays where if the ball were only 3 inches closer the TD catch would have happened, or the first down to sustain the winning the drive would have occurred. The Lafayette coach, today, was quoted in the Morning Call as to how "close" his Leopards were to a winning season last year. "Coulda, shoulda, woulda" is the lament of the loser. We've all been there and it will never change.

[GreenGlasses]

Because they were terriblllleeeeeee.

Better than last year is still bad.

You may as well have ranked Lehigh.

EKU wasn't horrible, they were 7-4 and a playoff bubble team. They held their own with Marshall for a 1/2 and should have beat Bowling Green. If they hadn't have screwed the game up against Murray State they are most likely a playoff team at 8-3 with 2 of those losses to IA teams.

[CenMEBlackBearFan]

Towson 13th? Looks fine to me. Looking forward to that Towson/Maine matchup early on.

You do mean the 14th? 7:00 pm start looks like it could be our most intriquing home game this year. Weather wise that time of the year should be stellar and after last year's finish we can only hope for a repeatxsmiley_wix

[Redbird 4th & short]

I would be interested in seeing how many games were played by one conference, vs each conference. Something like this is would be super cool.

30978
I'm assuming you mean for playoff games ? Yes it would be in iteresting, but it will really subdivide the game sampling size into much smaller less credible results .. even over the 8 years. I'm guessing there might be a couple games each year, and not usually until round of 8, rarely even in round of 16 .. that's the round most conferences get paired with fellow conference team and eliminate each other.

But the argument I'm making has much more to do with question the selection of playoff teams outside the top 16 most favored teams really. I'm pretty sure the committee can get at least the top 16 teams right .. though seeds coul dbe qustioned. My point is if you are going to have a 24 team playoff, why wouldn't you want to reward and see the 24 best teams play each othr ... isn't that what playoffs are about .. rewarding the best teams with a postseason opportunity to further prove yourself ? Not some arbitrary record cut-off set by Reign or the FCs selection committe because they can't comprehend strength of schedule when looking at team's resumes.

Yet the committee did give 6-5 ISUr a bid in 2016 .. and we went on road and nearly beat a Top 12, 9-2 Southland team (2nd in Southland) on their field ... led into Q3 before losing by 7. Would Reign have rather seen a 2nd place NEC or Patriot team lose to that UCA team by 25 .. because they were 2nd place in NEC or Patriot, which is obviously better than 5th place in MVFC .. because as he says, it just is .. butplease pay no attention to SOS .. it's just all so complicated.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm assuming you mean for playoff games ? Yes it would be in iteresting, but it will really subdivide the game sampling size into much smaller less credible results .. even over the 8 years. I'm guessing there might be a couple games each year, and not usually until round of 8, rarely even in round of 16 .. that's the round most conferences get paired with fellow conference team and eliminate each other.

But the argument I'm making has much more to do with question the selection of playoff teams outside the top 16 most favored teams really. I'm pretty sure the committee can get at least the top 16 teams right .. though seeds coul dbe qustioned. My point is if you are going to have a 24 team playoff, why wouldn't you want to reward and see the 24 best teams play each othr ... isn't that what playoffs are about .. rewarding the best teams with a postseason opportunity to further prove yourself ? Not some arbitrary record cut-off set by Reign or the FCs selection committe because they can't comprehend strength of schedule when looking at team's resumes.

Yet the committee did give 6-5 ISUr a bid in 2016 .. and we went on road and nearly beat a Top 12, 9-2 Southland team (2nd in Southland) on their field ... led into Q3 before losing by 7. Would Reign have rather seen a 2nd place NEC or Patriot team lose to that UCA team by 25 .. because they were 2nd place in NEC or Patriot, which is obviously better than 5th place in MVFC .. because as he says, it just is .. butplease pay no attention to SOS .. it's just all so complicated.

1) The Southland isn't quite a power conference yet. Most of the conference's wins in the last decade are either by Sam Houston State or against Sam Houston State. Central Arkansas only has two wins in the playoffs, one of them against your precious Cardinals. They were 1-3 against FCS playoff competition (Samford, Sam Houston, and Eastern Washington).

I'm open to the argument that the Southland is getting better as a conference (like the Socon, they have a handful of start-up programs). SHSU is 16-7 in the playoffs since 2011. The rest of the league is 4-12. Those 4 wins were Sam Houston State (so not OOC), Illinois State, Tennessee Tech, and San Diego. Not spectacular.

2) the fact that you keep deflecting to talk about the NEC or Patriot when I specifically cited the Big Sky/CAA/Southern kind of demonstrates that you're either being intentionally dense or the blood has ceased to circulate to your brain because you're so angry to hear that your perennial and painfully average team is inadequate.

3) no one is saying that SOS isn't helpful, but you're basically asking us to use it as a sole criterion to evaluate how good a team is. It's obvious to anyone who has paid attention to your posting. It's also getting borderline pathetic.

[FUGameBreaker]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRfOYoWU8AA9RdL.jpg

[ST_Lawson]

We posting album covers now? Is that a thing?

https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/81IAltawf1L._SS500_PIPJStripe-Robin-Large-V2,TopLeft,0,0_.jpg

[dbackjon]

What is worse is that Arizona Christian is not D2, they are NAIA.... Not that it really matters for the current discussion. We still shouldn't have done it, but no FCS school was going to come play us for what we paid. NAU would be a really great home and away series. Moving to an 8 game conference schedule could provide us opportunity for more OOC FCS games if our Althletics Dept. & donors make it happen. Regardless of the NAIA game, we should at least be on people's watch list. If we aren't it makes me question the voters. The UNT and MSU games have to be seen for what they are. I agree that the UCA game will be a defining game for our 2019 season.

It would be. We play mostly Southland and MVFC teams for OOC home and homes - get it done!

[SCPALADIN]

We posting album covers now? Is that a thing?

https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/81IAltawf1L._SS500_PIPJStripe-Robin-Large-V2,TopLeft,0,0_.jpg

Sweet Jesus I sure hope not...

[Professor Chaos]

I would be interested in seeing how many games were played by one conference, vs each conference. Something like this is would be super cool.

30978
I'm not going to guarantee these numbers are completely accurate because it was a lot of manual data entry with mostly 1s in a bunch of columns so I may have slid a 1 over an extra column left or right accidentally but this should be pretty accurate for the timeframes listed.

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/48441738542_03ef65f379_k.jpg


https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/48441585736_269ec1341a_k.jpg


DISCLAIMER: The records will reflect the opposing team's conference in the year the game was played but the records themselves are only for teams that currently constitute a particular conference in 2019. For instance, the records against the SOCON (SC) include playoff games that were played against App St and Georgia Southern when those schools were in the SOCON but App St and Georgia Southern's playoff records are not included in the SOCON's total numbers (they're in the FBS category).

I'll also put together a view that shows NDSU listed separately so you can take their numbers out of the MVFC numbers if you want to look at it that way.

EDIT: Sorry, it's going to be very hard to see on a phone... the bigger the screen you can view the images on the easier it'll be to read.

[FUGameBreaker]

We posting album covers now? Is that a thing?

https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/81IAltawf1L._SS500_PIPJStripe-Robin-Large-V2,TopLeft,0,0_.jpg



Only thing I see is your purple is irrelevant

[Redbird 4th & short]

I'm not going to guarantee these numbers are completely accurate because it was a lot of manual data entry with mostly 1s in a bunch of columns so I may have slid a 1 over an extra column left or right accidentally but this should be pretty accurate for the timeframes listed.

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/48441738542_03ef65f379_k.jpg


https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/48441585736_269ec1341a_k.jpg


DISCLAIMER: The records will reflect the opposing team's conference in the year the game was played but the records themselves are only for teams that currently constitute a particular conference in 2019. For instance, the records against the SOCON (SC) include playoff games that were played against App St and Georgia Southern when those schools were in the SOCON but App St and Georgia Southern's playoff records are not included in the SOCON's total numbers (they're in the FBS category).

I'll also put together a view that shows NDSU listed separately so you can take their numbers out of the MVFC numbers if you want to look at it that way.

EDIT: Sorry, it's going to be very hard to see on a phone... the bigger the screen you can view the images on the easier it'll be to read.
Nice work Prof

I can verify you have MVFC correct for 2010-18 .. just checked it against my 2011-18 numbers and added 2010. So 59-25 is right and NDSU went 32-2, so MVFC excl NDSU is 27-23 for 2010-18 period. Also noting we cannibalized ourselves the most at 9-9, so tthe 59-25 improves to 50-16 .. so MVFC win % improves from .700 to .750 removing head to head. So if we also adjust the 27-23 .. all 9 losses come off to 14 .. not sure how many wins come off, but NDSU has I believe 6 of those 9 wins .. if so, MVFC excl NDSU record improve to 24-14 .. translated to win %, MVFC excl NDSU improves from .540 to .631 against non-MVFC teams. This assumes 6 of the 9 MVFC head to head games involved NDSU ... I know SDSU has 4 alone, ISUr has 1, UNI has 1.

So MVFC excl NDSU playoff record for 2010-18 against non-MVFC teams is 24-14 for .631 win % ... imagine if Big Sky excluded EWU or CAA excluded a JMU or UNH .. how would their version of "the Wings" compare to MVFC version ??

Just maybe the MVFC version of Wings should be getting more bids ?? What do you think Reign ??

[Catatonic]

It would be. We play mostly Southland and MVFC teams for OOC home and homes - get it done!

We played NAU at home during our transition from D1. I’d love to play you in Flag.

[KPSUL]

I'm not going to guarantee these numbers are completely accurate because it was a lot of manual data entry with mostly 1s in a bunch of columns so I may have slid a 1 over an extra column left or right accidentally but this should be pretty accurate for the timeframes listed.
Thanks for collecting and posting this data, even if it is not perfectly accurate it gives a reference point for discussion. I'm going to assume it is accurate. I haven't got into many discussions regarding which conference is best, better, good, or not-so-good because it is always a tough comparison - conference schedules dominate the season, almost every team plays at least one FBS opponent, and OOC schedules are largely regional, and in many cases for the teams with a winning tradition, many of the OOC opponents are selected on the basis of the likelihood of getting the W. Consequently, the only somewhat significant data to analyze is playoff success.

Like it or not(I personally don't) no matter what data you collect, and no matter how you organization and analyze it, short of deliberately skewing or manipulating it, the MVFC is going to come out on top. After that, the next several conferences are going to be statistically tied.

I have a couple comments on your data. I don't agree with dropping the results of any specific team, and that includes the Bison dynasty and it includes the teams that emigrated to become FBS bottom-feeders. A better way to get an assessment of the current relative strength of the conferences would be to weigh the most current season more heavily, each successive previous year less. That would help mitigate the effect of several extraneous factors to include the impact of teams no longer in the sub-conference. It also answers the question truly being asked frequently every season at time of the year when we don't have much ese of substance to talk about: How does my conference currently stack up against all the others? Additionally, I don't think you should be including a W and L from the 16 team playoff era, in the same data set as the 24 or even short 20 team era. In the 16 team era there were 8 less games played and what becomes clearly obvious every year after the playoff field is announced, the overall quality of playoff participants drops off steeply after the top 16. A 1st round playoff win in 2018 does not fully equal a win in 2010.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Thanks for collecting and posting this data, even if it is not perfectly accurate it gives a reference point for discussion. I'm going to assume it is accurate. I haven't got into many discussions regarding which conference is best, better, good, or not-so-good because it is always a tough comparison - conference schedules dominate the season, almost every team plays at least one FBS opponent, and OOC schedules are largely regional, and in many cases for the teams with a winning tradition, many of the OOC opponents are selected on the basis of the likelihood of getting the W. Consequently, the only somewhat significant data to analyze is playoff success.

Like it or not(I personally don't) no matter what data you collect, and no matter how you organization and analyze it, short of deliberately skewing or manipulating it, the MVFC is going to come out on top. After that, the next several conferences are going to be statistically tied.

I have a couple comments on your data. I don't agree with dropping the results of any specific team, and that includes the Bison dynasty and it includes the teams that emigrated to become FBS bottom-feeders. A better way to get an assessment of the current relative strength of the conferences would be to weigh the most current season more heavily, each successive previous year less. That would help mitigate the effect of several extraneous factors to include the impact of teams no longer in the sub-conference. It also answers the question truly being asked frequently every season at time of the year when we don't have much ese of substance to talk about: How does my conference currently stack up against all the others? Additionally, I don't think you should be including a W and L from the 16 team playoff era, in the same data set as the 24 or even short 20 team era. In the 16 team era there were 8 less games played and what becomes clearly obvious every year after the playoff field is announced, the overall quality of playoff participants drops off steeply after the top 16. A 1st round playoff win in 2018 does not fully equal a win in 2010.
good post on several points .. I would only push back on whether or not to look at MVFC incl/excl NDSU .. they are clearly THE anomaly of FCS in last 10 years, like no other program .. and even of all time.

But at same time, since the implied debate is over conference strength and depth relative to getting playoff bids, each conference should remove their own anomaly to how they do from standpoint of their depth relative to playoff selections AND then look at the results.

MVFC vs Big Sky ... Is there any doubt, EWU is the anomaly of Big Sky since 2010 .. their playoff record is 14-5, while Big Sky was 25-26. So in comparing strength MVFC to Big Sky, remove NDSU and EWU, then look at playoff results ... Big Sky drops to 11-21 without EWU numbers and 11-19 removing 2 EWU wins over Big Sky teams. So Big Sky excl EWU has a .344 win % which improves .366 after removing the 2 head to head games with EWU. So MVFC .631 vs Big Sky .366 ... case closed, whether including or excluding each conference's top team.

MVFC vs Colonial .... Colonial is a little less clear because UNH and JMU would probably be tied for most dominant of recent era (2010-18) .. JMU more recently and UNH prior to JMU. But remove 1 of those and conceding Colonial was still the dominant conference in 2010 (& prior) .. though EWU beat Delaware for Natty in 2010. Now clearly, Colonial has much more consistently had way more depth than Big Sky, so they would logically fair better than Big Sky in this kind of analysis for sure ... except for 2018, which was high point for Big Sky and low point for Colonial playoffs-wise and 2010 was a high point for Colonial (6-4 record). But my original grid was arguing for period covering 2011-18 (the post-Colonial dominance era) for which Colonial went 34-32. UNH was 8-7 during this time and JMU was 7-5, so neither moved Colonial needle much in terms of win %. But if you remove JMU, Colonial record is 27-27 ... so their .510 drops to exactly .500 win %. I have not counted head to head games, but based on these numbers, it's also going to come in right around .500 ... so while not as decisive, MVFC excl NDSU is .631 bs Colonial excl JMU at .500 .. or even including JMU is .510.

Will note, Big Sky has emerged lately, especially last year with the top 3 in their conference .. we'll see how well they do over time. But for 2018, Colonial hit low point last year at 3-6, or 2-5 excl head to head ... Big Sky hit high point at 7-4, or 6-3 excl head to head. MVFC was 8-2, or 7-1 excl head to head .. 3-1 excl NDSU.

Pretty clear and indisputable no matter how you slice the 2010-18 period up to discount NDSU impact ... MVFC deserves more bids than it gets. Never mind how many more games SDSU would have won if not for facing NDSU 4 times in 8 years during playoffs.

[F'N Hawks]

Pray for the every opponent on Sam Houston's schedule this year. They have taken over the weight room title from UND. According to Stewart, the players are "10x stronger than they were before". 10 ****ing times!!!!

https://www.itemonline.com/sports/sam_houston_state_university_bearkats/cultural-changes-give-kats-optimism-as-bounce-back-bid-gets/article_aedb2de9-ed95-5087-a675-669398f6fd1e.html

[POD Knows]

Pray for the every opponent on Sam Houston's schedule this year. They have taken over the weight room title from UND. According to Stewart, the players are "10x stronger than they were before". 10 ****ing times!!!!

https://www.itemonline.com/sports/sam_houston_state_university_bearkats/cultural-changes-give-kats-optimism-as-bounce-back-bid-gets/article_aedb2de9-ed95-5087-a675-669398f6fd1e.htmlHoly Crap, should SHSU even be allowed to play football, what about the safety of the other teams, should their opponents forfeit in order to protect their health and safety. I also think we need to relaunch the AGS pre-season poll given this new information.

That comment by the guy from SHSU has to be the stupidest statement I have ever heard anybody utter.

[mvfcfan]

Personally if I was voting I wouldn't even vote for any MEAC, SWAC, or Ivy teams. If they aren't going to accept a bid to the playoffs, they don't get a vote as far as I'm concerned. I don't care if it's a conference decision or not. (I'm looking at you Princeton and NC A&T.) As far as at-large bids to the MEAC is concerned I wouldn't give them one period in any circumstance. They choose to not send their best team to the playoffs and that league is pretty terrible anyways. They haven't even won a playoff game since 1999.

[Outsider1]

Pray for the every opponent on Sam Houston's schedule this year. They have taken over the weight room title from UND. According to Stewart, the players are "10x stronger than they were before". 10 ****ing times!!!!

https://www.itemonline.com/sports/sam_houston_state_university_bearkats/cultural-changes-give-kats-optimism-as-bounce-back-bid-gets/article_aedb2de9-ed95-5087-a675-669398f6fd1e.html

While I agree that the 10x stronger comment is just stupid, I applaud their optimism and attempt to change their culture for the better. I do think they will have a chip on their shoulder in 2019. They aren't the only ones out to prove something though and they will have a lot of battles ahead. Other players on other teams have put on "good weight" and participated in extra workouts. I'll still throw in a prayer or two when we play them anyway.. I think we can repeat our performance against them last year, but we'll see.

[POD Knows]

While I agree that the 10x stronger comment is just stupid, I applaud their optimism and attempt to change their culture for the better. I do think they will have a chip on their shoulder in 2019. They aren't the only ones out to prove something though and they will have a lot of battles ahead. Other players on other teams have put on "good weight" and participated in extra workouts. I'll still throw in a prayer or two when we play them anyway.. I think we can repeat our performance against them last year, but we'll see.Yea, but here is the deal, we had a hockey rube (Kidding Geaux Sioux) talk about UND lifting weights in the off season and we milked that baby for a couple years, then you have an actual team member from SHSU talk about being 10 times stronger, I am sorry, but they now have the title as the most pumped up team in FCS. I hate to have to remove UND from this conversation but a new bar has been set.

[Professor Chaos]

Thanks for collecting and posting this data, even if it is not perfectly accurate it gives a reference point for discussion. I'm going to assume it is accurate. I haven't got into many discussions regarding which conference is best, better, good, or not-so-good because it is always a tough comparison - conference schedules dominate the season, almost every team plays at least one FBS opponent, and OOC schedules are largely regional, and in many cases for the teams with a winning tradition, many of the OOC opponents are selected on the basis of the likelihood of getting the W. Consequently, the only somewhat significant data to analyze is playoff success.

Like it or not(I personally don't) no matter what data you collect, and no matter how you organization and analyze it, short of deliberately skewing or manipulating it, the MVFC is going to come out on top. After that, the next several conferences are going to be statistically tied.

I have a couple comments on your data. I don't agree with dropping the results of any specific team, and that includes the Bison dynasty and it includes the teams that emigrated to become FBS bottom-feeders. A better way to get an assessment of the current relative strength of the conferences would be to weigh the most current season more heavily, each successive previous year less. That would help mitigate the effect of several extraneous factors to include the impact of teams no longer in the sub-conference. It also answers the question truly being asked frequently every season at time of the year when we don't have much ese of substance to talk about: How does my conference currently stack up against all the others? Additionally, I don't think you should be including a W and L from the 16 team playoff era, in the same data set as the 24 or even short 20 team era. In the 16 team era there were 8 less games played and what becomes clearly obvious every year after the playoff field is announced, the overall quality of playoff participants drops off steeply after the top 16. A 1st round playoff win in 2018 does not fully equal a win in 2010.
I agree with most of what you're saying but I don't necessarily think it makes a big difference to differentiate the years with the expanded playoff fields. Every conference played under the same playoff format in each individual season. You can say that the expanded fields have let in some weaker teams from conferences like the NEC and Pioneer but it's easy enough to extrapolate that from the data since it's broken out by conference.

[F'N Hawks]

Yea, but here is the deal, we had a hockey rube (Kidding Geaux Sioux) talk about UND lifting weights in the off season and we milked that baby for a couple years, then you have an actual team member from SHSU talk about being 10 times stronger, I am sorry, but they now have the title as the most pumped up team in FCS. I hate to have to remove UND from this conversation but a new bar has been set.

With that being said, UND lifted pretty damn hard this offseason. They are still hanging around the convo.

Heard they only got 4x stronger.

[Daytripper]

Pray for the every opponent on Sam Houston's schedule this year. They have taken over the weight room title from UND. According to Stewart, the players are "10x stronger than they were before". 10 ****ing times!!!!

https://www.itemonline.com/sports/sam_houston_state_university_bearkats/cultural-changes-give-kats-optimism-as-bounce-back-bid-gets/article_aedb2de9-ed95-5087-a675-669398f6fd1e.html

Well, at least SHSU AGS members can rely on others to promote our greatness. UND has to do it themselves.

[JSUSoutherner]

Pray for the every opponent on Sam Houston's schedule this year. They have taken over the weight room title from UND. According to Stewart, the players are "10x stronger than they were before". 10 ****ing times!!!!

https://www.itemonline.com/sports/sam_houston_state_university_bearkats/cultural-changes-give-kats-optimism-as-bounce-back-bid-gets/article_aedb2de9-ed95-5087-a675-669398f6fd1e.html

10x ehh?

Maybe they'll be able to give us, JMU, and NDSU a game now.

Maybe.

[F'N Hawks]

Well, at least SHSU AGS members can rely on others to promote our greatness. UND has to do it themselves.

Your dude said it, don't shoot the messenger.

[Redbird 4th & short]

1) The Southland isn't quite a power conference yet. Most of the conference's wins in the last decade are either by Sam Houston State or against Sam Houston State. Central Arkansas only has two wins in the playoffs, one of them against your precious Cardinals. They were 1-3 against FCS playoff competition (Samford, Sam Houston, and Eastern Washington).

I'm open to the argument that the Southland is getting better as a conference (like the Socon, they have a handful of start-up programs). SHSU is 16-7 in the playoffs since 2011. The rest of the league is 4-12. Those 4 wins were Sam Houston State (so not OOC), Illinois State, Tennessee Tech, and San Diego. Not spectacular.

2) the fact that you keep deflecting to talk about the NEC or Patriot when I specifically cited the Big Sky/CAA/Southern kind of demonstrates that you're either being intentionally dense or the blood has ceased to circulate to your brain because you're so angry to hear that your perennial and painfully average team is inadequate.

3) no one is saying that SOS isn't helpful, but you're basically asking us to use it as a sole criterion to evaluate how good a team is. It's obvious to anyone who has paid attention to your posting. It's also getting borderline pathetic.

Uh, no ... I am not asking anyone to use SOS as sole criteria. It is one of many criteria .. but it happens to be the one many dismiss the most .. see how arguing works like that ?

As for you "borderline pathetic" comment.. yeah ok, good argument there .. lets both start calling each other names .. good idea !!

So you've probably completely ignored my other posts of the indisputable fact that MVFC excl NDSU win % in playoffs is .631% to Colonial's .500% excl JMU to Big Sky's .361% excl EWU. You pulled some number for Southland, though I don't consider them in the top 3 league other than SHSU ... but Southland results are more similar Big Sky and fall off cliff from close to .500 to .250 without their top team .. so thanks for further making MY point.

So answer this simple question .. if no conference should have more than 3 teams as you have stated, and there are only 10 conferences .. how do you get to 24 teams and defend the decisions ? Stammer over that one for a while before you realize .. you can't, because nothing would make any sense. You would have at leasr 5 or 6 teams in the top 20 not making playoffs ... from MVFC, Colonial, and Big Sky. Instead teams from outside would make the playoffs in their place.

Mind blow yet at the realization that your ideas make no sense ?

Let's get more specific with last season ... by your random criteria, Colonial only gets 3 teams instead of 6 .. right ??? And Big Sky only gets 3 instead 4. So who are the 4 teams that take their place as at large bids ... find me 4 teams worthy of playoff bids and I'll watch you defend them .. that would be fun !!! Bear in mind, there are already 3 at large teams with 6-4 records .... so who are the next 4 teams you would have picked since each conference can only have 3 teams by your random standard.

Then lets discuss the merits of your 4 picks over the ones the 4 that you kicked from tournament due to your 3 teams per conference max.

Good luck with your assigment !!!!

p.s. and you can't take the consensus most screwed team ISUb (6-4) because that would make 4 from MVFC.

[Reign of Terrier]

Uh, no ... I am not asking anyone to use SOS as sole criteria. It is one of many criteria .. but it happens to be the one many dismiss the most .. see how arguing works like that ?

As for you "borderline pathetic" comment.. yeah ok, good argument there .. lets both start calling each other names .. good idea !!

So you've probably completely ignored my other posts of the indisputable fact that MVFC excl NDSU win % in playoffs is .631% to Colonial's .500% excl JMU to Big Sky's .361% excl EWU. You pulled some number for Southland, though I don't consider them in the top 3 league other than SHSU ... but Southland results are more similar Big Sky and fall off cliff from close to .500 to .250 without their top team .. so thanks for further making MY point.

So answer this simple question .. if no conference should have more than 3 teams as you have stated, and there are only 10 conferences .. how do you get to 24 teams and defend the decisions ? Stammer over that one for a while before you realize .. you can't, because nothing would make any sense. You would have at leasr 5 or 6 teams in the top 20 not making playoffs ... from MVFC, Colonial, and Big Sky. Instead teams from outside would make the playoffs in their place.

Mind blow yet at the realization that your ideas make no sense ?

Let's get more specific with last season ... by your random criteria, Colonial only gets 3 teams instead of 6 .. right ??? And Big Sky only gets 3 instead 4. So who are the 4 teams that take their place as at large bids ... find me 4 teams worthy of playoff bids and I'll watch you defend them .. that would be fun !!! Bear in mind, there are already 3 at large teams with 6-4 records .... so who are the next 4 teams you would have picked since each conference can only have 3 teams by your random standard.

Then lets discuss the merits of your 4 picks over the ones the 4 that you kicked from tournament due to your 3 teams per conference max.

Good luck with your assigment !!!!

p.s. and you can't take the consensus most screwed team ISUb (6-4) because that would make 4 from MVFC.

My God your reading comprehension is terrible lol I wasn't even going to comment because no one has commented on this thread in like two days, but your propensity to miss the point and then go on a tirade is unmatched. Your post is kind of rambling and incoherent (write better), so let me say this a little more clearly: I don't think any conference deserves five bids, and the only conference that has proven to have a successful 4th team win-percentage wise is the CAA. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think I've said anywhere that I favor capping the amount of teams who get a bid at 3. I think that should be done at 4, because fifth place teams don't have a great record, and when they do it's usually against another conference where a team that finished in a position where they too have a low-probability of winning.

When determining who should get at-large spots, it's kind of dumb to look at the overall record of the conference, because naturally the #1 team in the conference is going to skew those numbers. Just look at NDSU's playoff record. Heck, the Big South probably has a better playoff record in the last ~6 years or so than the Socon because the #1 team has been pretty decent (Coastal/CSU/Kennesaw) but the rest of the conference has been a dumpster fire. Do we look at playoff record and say that the Big South is a better conference or place more Big South teams on the bubble than Socon teams because of that? No!

Even if the wins don't skew too much as a result of the number one team, you'll probably see a relationship with wins and final standings in the conference race. So, in a hypothetical conference that gets 4 teams in, The #1 team may get 2 wins, the #2 team 1 win, the #3 1 win, and the #4 a loss. The specific distribution doesn't matter, the point is that the best teams usually get farther and the worse teams don't get too far. This relationship can be seen in all FCS conferences.

The pattern I am observing is that for many conferences (The Big Sky, MVFC, Southern, and CAA), there's less of a gap between #1 and #2. In the Southern conference and Big Sky, there's a bigger gap between #2 and #3. The CAA is the only team with minimal gap between #3 and #4, whereas the MVFC seems a similar drop off from the 3 to 4 as the Socon sees from 2 to 3 and the Southland from 1 to 2.

So, in the context of selecting playoff teams, I'm pretty comfortable saying that every year the Southern deserves at least 2, the CAA at least 4, the MVFC at least 3, and the Big Sky at least 2. Every other conference probably doesn't deserve a second bid, but we would have to take those claims on a case by case basis (using regular season OOC/big wins, recent playoff performance, etc). But when figuring out whether to give those teams bids, or give the Socon a third, the CAA a fifth, the MVFC a 4th, etc we should look at the expected win percentage of those teams outside of the "safe zone" of expected wins.

And what I'm telling you is, for the MVFC in particular, no team that finishes outside of third place not named SDSU, NDSU, or UNI is likely to win a game and for that reason alone we should be hesitant to award a fifth place team. So a third place Youngstown State/ISUx/Western Illinois probably deserves a bid, but I'm skeptical of that fourth place team if they aren't named SDSU/NDSU/UNI.

I'm comfortable with putting in a fourth place team from the MVFC team in the field, but that team is almost always on the bubble by definition. The mindset of "well they play in a tough conference" and giving the CAA/MVFC too many bids has harmed other parts of the FCS, not allowing bubble teams an opportunity to prove themselves (and before anyone says anything about scheduling, 99% of FCS OOC games are scheduled with teams of comparable distance from conference games)

The fact is, not winning close games is correlated with being an average team because it's causal in not making you a good team. Every average to above average team will be competitive with the top tier of their conference, possibly pointing to a handful of plays that separated them from being in the top tier. But winning close games is what makes you a good team, and just because you're reasonably competitive with the top tier of your conference doesn't mean you'll beat the top tier of other conferences. If anything, choking implies you'll lose.

Folks like you (I don't even want to throw the entire MVFC fanbase under the bus because the big 3 have earned confidence and I notice some humbleness in other MVFC fans) want us to give you a participation trophy for finishing 5th 6-5 because you can't close over an up and coming, say Southland/Southern/Big Sky team who is at 7-4 or so and third place. It's clearly just entitlement.

[clenz]

I have a couple comments on your data. I don't agree with dropping the results of any specific team, and that includes the Bison dynasty and it includes the teams that emigrated to become FBS bottom-feeders. A better way to get an assessment of the current relative strength of the conferences would be to weigh the most current season more heavily, each successive previous year less. That would help mitigate the effect of several extraneous factors to include the impact of teams no longer in the sub-conference. It also answers the question truly being asked frequently every season at time of the year when we don't have much ese of substance to talk about: How does my conference currently stack up against all the others? Additionally, I don't think you should be including a W and L from the 16 team playoff era, in the same data set as the 24 or even short 20 team era. In the 16 team era there were 8 less games played and what becomes clearly obvious every year after the playoff field is announced, the overall quality of playoff participants drops off steeply after the top 16. A 1st round playoff win in 2018 does not fully equal a win in 2010.At this point I'm hardly reading what is said here and won't get overly involved, however, there was something here that got me to comment so I may as well spend time with the full post


I don't agree with dropping the results of any specific team, and that includes the Bison dynasty and it includes the teams that emigrated to become FBS bottom-feeder

The reason he - and most MVFC fans will always drop NDSU when talking about these topics is we are so sick of people from other conferences, most notably CAA fans, going "YEAH BUT NDSU IS THE ONLY REASON YOU HAVE A GOOD RECORD IN THE PLAYOFFS! PAUL MCCARTNEY AND THE WINGS!" and other garbage like that. Our first instinct in these topics is to remove them from the discussion – but will not remove JMU, SHSU, EWU, etc. from the topic until pushed. This is done to show the MVFC, sans NDSU, still has the best playoff win percent against teams outside of their own conference even when including the top team from each other conference. It can be/is also done to remove what clearly is the single largest outlier in the FCS from skewing any results – no matter the conference.

A better way to get an assessment of the current relative strength of the conferences would be to weigh the most current season more heavily, each successive previous year less. That would help mitigate the effect of several extraneous factors to include the impact of teams no longer in the sub-conference.

I would disagree. Why put less emphasis on a team going 4-0 in the playoffs 8 years ago? They still went 4-0, still against playoff teams, etc.

Additionally, I don't think you should be including a W and L from the 16 team playoff era, in the same data set as the 24 or even short 20 team era. In the 16 team era there were 8 less games played and what becomes clearly obvious every year after the playoff field is announced, the overall quality of playoff participants drops off steeply after the top 16. A 1st round playoff win in 2018 does not fully equal a win in 2010.

This goes straight against the point you tried to make right before this. You want to put less emphasis on older wins – or not include them at all – but then say those wins are, to put a word slightly in your mouth but using your logic, more impressive because the field was less watered down. If a “win in 2018 does not fully equal a win in 2010” why are you proposing a system to nerf win value of wins from 2010? It’s not like we are comparing quantity of wins from 2010 to 2018. It’s using win % against non home conference teams.


Listen, after 8 years of this **** I couldn’t care less about the topic 98% of the time. However, your post confused me with what you were wanting and not wanting to count and how to count it.

[Redbird 4th & short]

My God your reading comprehension is terrible lol I wasn't even going to comment because no one has commented on this thread in like two days, but your propensity to miss the point and then go on a tirade is unmatched. Your post is kind of rambling and incoherent (write better), so let me say this a little more clearly: I don't think any conference deserves five bids, and the only conference that has proven to have a successful 4th team win-percentage wise is the CAA. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think I've said anywhere that I favor capping the amount of teams who get a bid at 3. I think that should be done at 4, because fifth place teams don't have a great record, and when they do it's usually against another conference where a team that finished in a position where they too have a low-probability of winning.

When determining who should get at-large spots, it's kind of dumb to look at the overall record of the conference, because naturally the #1 team in the conference is going to skew those numbers. Just look at NDSU's playoff record. Heck, the Big South probably has a better playoff record in the last ~6 years or so than the Socon because the #1 team has been pretty decent (Coastal/CSU/Kennesaw) but the rest of the conference has been a dumpster fire. Do we look at playoff record and say that the Big South is a better conference or place more Big South teams on the bubble than Socon teams because of that? No!

Even if the wins don't skew too much as a result of the number one team, you'll probably see a relationship with wins and final standings in the conference race. So, in a hypothetical conference that gets 4 teams in, The #1 team may get 2 wins, the #2 team 1 win, the #3 1 win, and the #4 a loss. The specific distribution doesn't matter, the point is that the best teams usually get farther and the worse teams don't get too far. This relationship can be seen in all FCS conferences.

The pattern I am observing is that for many conferences (The Big Sky, MVFC, Southern, and CAA), there's less of a gap between #1 and #2. In the Southern conference and Big Sky, there's a bigger gap between #2 and #3. The CAA is the only team with minimal gap between #3 and #4, whereas the MVFC seems a similar drop off from the 3 to 4 as the Socon sees from 2 to 3 and the Southland from 1 to 2.

So, in the context of selecting playoff teams, I'm pretty comfortable saying that every year the Southern deserves at least 2, the CAA at least 4, the MVFC at least 3, and the Big Sky at least 2. Every other conference probably doesn't deserve a second bid, but we would have to take those claims on a case by case basis (using regular season OOC/big wins, recent playoff performance, etc). But when figuring out whether to give those teams bids, or give the Socon a third, the CAA a fifth, the MVFC a 4th, etc we should look at the expected win percentage of those teams outside of the "safe zone" of expected wins.

And what I'm telling you is, for the MVFC in particular, no team that finishes outside of third place not named SDSU, NDSU, or UNI is likely to win a game and for that reason alone we should be hesitant to award a fifth place team. So a third place Youngstown State/ISUx/Western Illinois probably deserves a bid, but I'm skeptical of that fourth place team if they aren't named SDSU/NDSU/UNI.

I'm comfortable with putting in a fourth place team from the MVFC team in the field, but that team is almost always on the bubble by definition. The mindset of "well they play in a tough conference" and giving the CAA/MVFC too many bids has harmed other parts of the FCS, not allowing bubble teams an opportunity to prove themselves (and before anyone says anything about scheduling, 99% of FCS OOC games are scheduled with teams of comparable distance from conference games)

The fact is, not winning close games is correlated with being an average team because it's causal in not making you a good team. Every average to above average team will be competitive with the top tier of their conference, possibly pointing to a handful of plays that separated them from being in the top tier. But winning close games is what makes you a good team, and just because you're reasonably competitive with the top tier of your conference doesn't mean you'll beat the top tier of other conferences. If anything, choking implies you'll lose.

Folks like you (I don't even want to throw the entire MVFC fanbase under the bus because the big 3 have earned confidence and I notice some humbleness in other MVFC fans) want us to give you a participation trophy for finishing 5th 6-5 because you can't close over an up and coming, say Southland/Southern/Big Sky team who is at 7-4 or so and third place. It's clearly just entitlement.

.631 to .500 to .360 ... relax, take a deep breath, let your mind comprehend

And you keep inferring as if I'm complaining about my ISUr going 6-5 and deserving a playoff bid. Factual statement coming .. I have NOT complained about my ISUr playoff bids (or no bids) since 2011 when we went 7-4 .. that year I complained both for ISUr and MVFC in general and many agreed. In 2016, we went 6-5 and got a bid we deserved. In 2017 and 2018, we also went 6-5 and did NOT get a bid .. I did NOT complain at all.

In 2018, I did claim 6-4 ISUb deserved one in 2018 .. in particular over the two 6-4 teams from Southland, not to mention the 6th playoff team from Colonial, who was also 6-4. And while were on the topic, they also deserved one over 7-3 ETSU ... who had 4 of the worst wins over bad teams of any playoff team I can recall.

So focus Reign .. for 2018, 3 other teams that went 6-4 who played weaker schedules made the playoff ahead of ISUb. In other years, various MVFC teams got screwed our of bids or seeds/home games. That is my complaint .. no complaints about ISUr since 2011 .. let it sink in please.

And back to my indisputable evidence ... .631 (MVFC to .500 (CAA) to .361 (Big Sky) to .250 (Southland). In theory, all conferences if fairly represented with playoff bids and seeds, should have roughly a .500 win % .. which everyone did when including their top team, except for MVFC .. right ???. But even if all conferences include their top teams and MVFC doesn't, we still outperformed all other top conferences ... with or without their anomoly top team .... 100% facts, no computers or opinions.

And you still owe me 4 new playoff teams for 2018 .. though I noticed you again moved your goal post on your original statement .... you now allow 4 teams for Colonial but not for MVFC ??? Really ???

You do realize how stupid you latest goal post moving sounds ... right ??? Colonial can have 4 but MVFC can only have 3 ... really ? You're going with that now ?

Let's see how much you move your goal posts after 2019 season.

[Reign of Terrier]

.631 to .500 to .360 ... relax, take a deep breath, let your mind comprehend

And you keep inferring as if I'm complaining about my ISUr going 6-5 and deserving a playoff bid. Factual statement coming .. I have NOT complained about my ISUr playoff bids (or no bids) since 2011 when we went 7-4 .. that year I complained both for ISUr and MVFC in general and many agreed. In 2016, we went 6-5 and got a bid we deserved. In 2017 and 2018, we also went 6-5 and did NOT get a bid .. I did NOT complain at all.

In 2018, I did claim 6-4 ISUb deserved one in 2018 .. in particular over the two 6-4 teams from Southland, not to mention the 6th playoff team from Colonial, who was also 6-4. And while were on the topic, they also deserved one over 7-3 ETSU ... who had 4 of the worst wins over bad teams of any playoff team I can recall.

So focus Reign .. for 2018, 3 other teams that went 6-4 who played weaker schedules made the playoff ahead of ISUb. In other years, various MVFC teams got screwed our of bids or seeds/home games. That is my complaint .. no complaints about ISUr since 2011 .. let it sink in please.

And back to my indisputable evidence ... .631 (MVFC to .500 (CAA) to .361 (Big Sky) to .250 (Southland). In theory, all conferences if fairly represented with playoff bids and seeds, should have roughly a .500 win % .. which everyone did when including their top team, except for MVFC .. right ???. But even if all conferences include their top teams and MVFC doesn't, we still outperformed all other top conferences ... with or without their anomoly top team .... 100% facts, no computers or opinions.

And you still owe me 4 new playoff teams for 2018 .. though I noticed you again moved your goal post on your original statement .... you now allow 4 teams for Colonial but not for MVFC ??? Really ???

You do realize how stupid you latest goal post moving sounds ... right ??? Colonial can have 4 but MVFC can only have 3 ... really ? You're going with that now ?

Let's see how much you move your goal posts after 2019 season.

You're so full of ****, you're not actually engaging my argument. You can't just look at the overall record, you have to look at *who* those teams are playing as well as *who* is playing said game.

You can't just look at overall record. You have to look at 1) who is playing, 2) what place they finished in the conference race, and 3) who they are playing. Put another way, I don't have to know #3 to think the MVFC team has a good chance of winning if I know the answer to #1 is NDSU/SDSU/UNI and the answer to #2 is "top 3 in the MVFC)

If you're in the MVFC, in the first round you are either going to play a traveling nobody (NEC, Patriot, Pioneer, etc), a bubble team from a not-strong conference traditionally (2nd place OVC/Big South, 3rd place Southland) or a Big Sky team because that's how geography works. A similar dynamic works for the Big Sky: they either play an MVFC team or get sent a nobody. The CAA lucks out because they also are close to some non-power conferences (NEC, patriot, etc), but they usually have to play a Southern conference team or two as well. Meanwhile, the Southern almost always plays the toughest team in the OVC/Big South (see: Kennesaw or Jacksonville State) or the CAA, which is always tough.

If you want to see this more saliently, look at the list of FCS teams on wikipedia, there's a very nice map of the distribution of teams. Geography plays a part in who you draw, and you can guess with a degree of certainty that the Big Sky/MVFC will probably get an easier draw for the first round than the Socon or CAA or OVC (if they have a first round game) because of the distance teams have to travel and the structure of the playoffs.

I put any non-bubble team (top 3 MVFC, top 4 CAA, top 2 Southern, top 2 Big Sky) to beat the 2nd place OVC/Big South team, 3rd place Southland team and the teams of the lesser conferences (NEC, Patriot). Granted, there are exceptions to this (see Colgate from last year, or the CAA's collective collapse in the playoffs).

But just looking at the records and seeing more wins doesn't translate to a better overall conference performance if those games are inflated. Just as playing your own conference inflates your losses, so too does playing these bubble teams as a bubble team inflate your wins.

I concede that the top 3 in the MVFC are usually national title worthy and that geography screws over MVFC teams in the second round. But the Big Sky and MVFC and sometimes CAA (namely the New England teams) get some pretty good benefits from their geography in the first round that conferences back east (Mid-Atlantic CAA teams, Southern, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State) don't.

And spare me this "I'm not complaining" bull****, your entire shtick is complaining about the MVFC not getting enough bids when they get plenty because your team misses out on them.

[Reign of Terrier]

To branch this thread a little more:

The more I look at it, the more I think geography plays a bigger part in certain teams/conferences "inflating" their playoff wins. Let's put aside the Big Sky and the MVFC for a minute. I'm using this map, at the bottom of the page, as a reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NCAA_Division_I_FCS_football_programs.

The prototypical program for geography inflating their win total in the playoffs is New Hampshire. Obviously, New Hampshire is a good team, no one in their right mind would dispute that, but this is who they've drawn in the last 10 years in the first round:

2009: McNeese State (W)
2010: Bethune Cookman (W)
2011: Montana State (L)
2012: Wofford (L)
2013: Lafayette (W)
2014: Fordham (W)
2015: Colgate (L)
2016: Lehigh (W)
2017: Central Connecticut (W)

So New Hampshire is 6-3 in the opening round, playing teams from the Big Sky, Southern, and Southland, but also many from the Patriot, NEC, and MEAC, who are not great playoff powers. They probably flew for all of these games, but if they didn't, I imagine the playoff committee felt more comfortable flying teams like Colgate/Lehigh/CCU to them than elsewhere, given how often they did.

Since the playoff format extended to 24 teams in 2013, New Hampshire has drawn "easy" first round games, with 4 Patriot league games and 1 from the NEC. I recognize that the Patriot League is a weird conference in that once every 4-5 years they have a team that can win at least one playoff game, and maybe that explains the one loss New Hampshire had in 2015.

Either way, New Hampshire is 4-1 against their first round draw in that time. It's hard for me to believe that they would have been slated these games had New Hampshire been located differently. Meanwhile, if you look at their draw in 2009-2010, they played McNeese State which hasn't won a playoff game since 2002, with the Southland not being spectacular and 2010 MEAC (perennial playoff loser) Bethune Cookman.

But when they drew games from "power" FCS conferences in the first round (Wofford from the Southern and Montana State from the Big Sky) they were less fortunate.

None of this is to rag on New Hampshire. In 2013-2014, they made the semifinals. My point is, the raw number of games you win can be inflated because you have a favorable slate because of your geography. Geography won't shield you from playing tough games in the first round, but it reduces the likelihood of having to do so, pending on what the geographic slate looks like elsewhere. I think it's pretty much indisputable at this point that, with the exception of JMU, the mid-atlantic CAA teams (Richmond, Elon, Towson, etc), the Southern Conference playoff teams (Furman, Wofford, Citadel, Chattanooga, ETSU, Samford), and Jacksonville State and Kennesaw State are roughly the same quality, at least more so than your average Pioneer/Patriot/NEC team is to your average CAA/MVFC/Big Sky team. Because they're in close proximity to each other, you see less variance in who and where you play if you're one of those teams.

Meanwhile, the MVFC, Big Sky, New England CAA teams, and maybe even the Southland as more teams go on road games over time, see more variance in the teams they play because of their geographical distance.

[KPSUL]

At this point I'm hardly reading what is said here and won't get overly involved, however, there was something here that got me to comment so I may as well spend time with the full post


I don't agree with dropping the results of any specific team, and that includes the Bison dynasty and it includes the teams that emigrated to become FBS bottom-feeder

The reason he - and most MVFC fans will always drop NDSU when talking about these topics is we are so sick of people from other conferences, most notably CAA fans, going "YEAH BUT NDSU IS THE ONLY REASON YOU HAVE A GOOD RECORD IN THE PLAYOFFS! PAUL MCCARTNEY AND THE WINGS!" and other garbage like that. Our first instinct in these topics is to remove them from the discussion – but will not remove JMU, SHSU, EWU, etc. from the topic until pushed. This is done to show the MVFC, sans NDSU, still has the best playoff win percent against teams outside of their own conference even when including the top team from each other conference. It can be/is also done to remove what clearly is the single largest outlier in the FCS from skewing any results – no matter the conference.

A better way to get an assessment of the current relative strength of the conferences would be to weigh the most current season more heavily, each successive previous year less. That would help mitigate the effect of several extraneous factors to include the impact of teams no longer in the sub-conference.

I would disagree. Why put less emphasis on a team going 4-0 in the playoffs 8 years ago? They still went 4-0, still against playoff teams, etc.

Additionally, I don't think you should be including a W and L from the 16 team playoff era, in the same data set as the 24 or even short 20 team era. In the 16 team era there were 8 less games played and what becomes clearly obvious every year after the playoff field is announced, the overall quality of playoff participants drops off steeply after the top 16. A 1st round playoff win in 2018 does not fully equal a win in 2010.

This goes straight against the point you tried to make right before this. You want to put less emphasis on older wins – or not include them at all – but then say those wins are, to put a word slightly in your mouth but using your logic, more impressive because the field was less watered down. If a “win in 2018 does not fully equal a win in 2010” why are you proposing a system to nerf win value of wins from 2010? It’s not like we are comparing quantity of wins from 2010 to 2018. It’s using win % against non home conference teams.


Listen, after 8 years of this **** I couldnÂ’t care less about the topic 98% of the time. However, your post confused me with what you were wanting and not wanting to count and how to count it.

No doubt you're having trouble following this thread, what with Redbird and Reign of Terrier engaged in a 100,000 work food fight. But I'd like to make a couple counterpoints.

- I'm not responsible for what other CAA fans have posted. I make it clear that no team should be dropped from conference strength comparison. Additionally I've seen this data and followed this argument enough to be convinced that the MVFC has a winning playoff record even if you exclude NDSU. So I'm not sure what point you were making about this part of my comments.

- Accounting for the recency effect by not weighing older seasons as heavily as more recent AND not counting 1st round games in a 24 team as equivalent to 1st round wins in a 16 team field are not mutually exclusive. Both factors are valid and can be applied to increase the accuracy of the analysis.

- I also started my post focusing on the futility of trying to rank order conferences using any measurement, so I essentially agree with you, I don't care all that about the topic, although perhaps not as much as your 98%.

[KPSUL]

To branch this thread a little more:

The more I look at it, the more I think geography plays a bigger part in certain teams/conferences "inflating" their playoff wins. Let's put aside the Big Sky and the MVFC for a minute. I'm using this map, at the bottom of the page, as a reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NCAA_Division_I_FCS_football_programs.

The prototypical program for geography inflating their win total in the playoffs is New Hampshire. Obviously, New Hampshire is a good team, no one in their right mind would dispute that, but this is who they've drawn in the last 10 years in the first round:

2009: McNeese State (W)
2010: Bethune Cookman (W)
2011: Montana State (L)
2012: Wofford (L)
2013: Lafayette (W)
2014: Fordham (W)
2015: Colgate (L)
2016: Lehigh (W)
2017: Central Connecticut (W)

So New Hampshire is 6-3 in the opening round, playing teams from the Big Sky, Southern, and Southland, but also many from the Patriot, NEC, and MEAC, who are not great playoff powers. They probably flew for all of these games, but if they didn't, I imagine the playoff committee felt more comfortable flying teams like Colgate/Lehigh/CCU to them than elsewhere, given how often they did.

Since the playoff format extended to 24 teams in 2013, New Hampshire has drawn "easy" first round games, with 4 Patriot league games and 1 from the NEC. I recognize that the Patriot League is a weird conference in that once every 4-5 years they have a team that can win at least one playoff game, and maybe that explains the one loss New Hampshire had in 2015.

Either way, New Hampshire is 4-1 against their first round draw in that time. It's hard for me to believe that they would have been slated these games had New Hampshire been located differently. Meanwhile, if you look at their draw in 2009-2010, they played McNeese State which hasn't won a playoff game since 2002, with the Southland not being spectacular and 2010 MEAC (perennial playoff loser) Bethune Cookman.

But when they drew games from "power" FCS conferences in the first round (Wofford from the Southern and Montana State from the Big Sky) they were less fortunate.

None of this is to rag on New Hampshire. In 2013-2014, they made the semifinals. My point is, the raw number of games you win can be inflated because you have a favorable slate because of your geography. Geography won't shield you from playing tough games in the first round, but it reduces the likelihood of having to do so, pending on what the geographic slate looks like elsewhere. I think it's pretty much indisputable at this point that, with the exception of JMU, the mid-atlantic CAA teams (Richmond, Elon, Towson, etc), the Southern Conference playoff teams (Furman, Wofford, Citadel, Chattanooga, ETSU, Samford), and Jacksonville State and Kennesaw State are roughly the same quality, at least more so than your average Pioneer/Patriot/NEC team is to your average CAA/MVFC/Big Sky team. Because they're in close proximity to each other, you see less variance in who and where you play if you're one of those teams.

Meanwhile, the MVFC, Big Sky, New England CAA teams, and maybe even the Southland as more teams go on road games over time, see more variance in the teams they play because of their geographical distance.

We didn't fly anywhere 2013 - 2017, they were all home games. But none of our opponents flew either. Durham NH from most those locations is less mileage than someone living out west will drive for good ice cream.
Because our "stadium" was too small, and without lights, prior to 2013 we played a total of 2 home playoff games (Samford and UNI) and racked up the frequent flyer miles.

[Reign of Terrier]

We didn't fly anywhere 2013 - 2017, they were all home games. But none of our opponents flew either. Durham NH from most those locations is less mileage than someone living out west will drive for good ice cream.
Because our "stadium" was too small, and without lights, prior to 2013 we played a total of 2 home playoff games (Samford and UNI) and racked up the frequent flyer miles.

Thanks for the correction, and to be clear, I'm not trying to make any point about UNH's quality per se, just that they benefit from geography in being close to those Patriot/NEC teams which I think is clearly an advantage in the first round. I forgot what the cut off was for flying in playoff games, but New Hampshire presents an edge case in that they are close to a bunch of weak teams without a flight, but not close to many non-conference playoff teams without a flight. MVFC/Big Sky teams basically fly everywhere, whereas Mid Atlantic CAA/OVC/Southern/Big South will almost certainly drive somewhere. I think it would be a lot different if geography wasn't considered at all and everyone flew everywhere.

so far, this train of thought has me strongly favoring seeding every team and throwing out geographic requirements, because I think a better case is made that geography is hurting the southeast teams than it is helping the teams west of the Mississippi (I don't think it is for the latter).

[Redbird 4th & short]

You're so full of ****, you're not actually engaging my argument. You can't just look at the overall record, you have to look at *who* those teams are playing as well as *who* is playing said game.

You can't just look at overall record. You have to look at 1) who is playing, 2) what place they finished in the conference race, and 3) who they are playing. Put another way, I don't have to know #3 to think the MVFC team has a good chance of winning if I know the answer to #1 is NDSU/SDSU/UNI and the answer to #2 is "top 3 in the MVFC)

If you're in the MVFC, in the first round you are either going to play a traveling nobody (NEC, Patriot, Pioneer, etc), a bubble team from a not-strong conference traditionally (2nd place OVC/Big South, 3rd place Southland) or a Big Sky team because that's how geography works. A similar dynamic works for the Big Sky: they either play an MVFC team or get sent a nobody. The CAA lucks out because they also are close to some non-power conferences (NEC, patriot, etc), but they usually have to play a Southern conference team or two as well. Meanwhile, the Southern almost always plays the toughest team in the OVC/Big South (see: Kennesaw or Jacksonville State) or the CAA, which is always tough.

If you want to see this more saliently, look at the list of FCS teams on wikipedia, there's a very nice map of the distribution of teams. Geography plays a part in who you draw, and you can guess with a degree of certainty that the Big Sky/MVFC will probably get an easier draw for the first round than the Socon or CAA or OVC (if they have a first round game) because of the distance teams have to travel and the structure of the playoffs.

I put any non-bubble team (top 3 MVFC, top 4 CAA, top 2 Southern, top 2 Big Sky) to beat the 2nd place OVC/Big South team, 3rd place Southland team and the teams of the lesser conferences (NEC, Patriot). Granted, there are exceptions to this (see Colgate from last year, or the CAA's collective collapse in the playoffs).

But just looking at the records and seeing more wins doesn't translate to a better overall conference performance if those games are inflated. Just as playing your own conference inflates your losses, so too does playing these bubble teams as a bubble team inflate your wins.

I concede that the top 3 in the MVFC are usually national title worthy and that geography screws over MVFC teams in the second round. But the Big Sky and MVFC and sometimes CAA (namely the New England teams) get some pretty good benefits from their geography in the first round that conferences back east (Mid-Atlantic CAA teams, Southern, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State) don't.

And spare me this "I'm not complaining" bull****, your entire shtick is complaining about the MVFC not getting enough bids when they get plenty because your team misses out on them.

Making sh-t up again ... since 2010, MVFC has NEVER played an NEC or Patriot team for playin game ... and only ever had 1 playin game had the 1 game against Pioneer when WIU went on road in 2015 against Dayton. Do note, the 2 other MVFC vs Pioneer games were both San Diego vs NDSU ... but in both cases San Diego beat a Big Sky team (Cal Poly in 2016, NAU in 2017) for the right to face NDSU ... so not an easy playin game and in fact they were playin game winners over Big Sky ... besides we're required to exclude our best team while others apparently are not.

Also, I can't say this any clearer ... I have NOT complained about my ISUr playoff bid decisions since 2011 .... plain and simple. You love to move goal posts and state things that are just not true .... this one probably blows your mind, though I doubt you see it straight ... it is 100% facts supported fully by all most posts here and on Redbird Forum. You don't get to make sh-t up.

But yes, I have repeatedly defended the MVFC since 2011 .. usually YSU where their previous coach was fired because they got screwed out of 2 bids for sure IMO. Also SDSU several years ... not for missed bids, but for missed seeds .. they should have gotten more top 8 seeds and home games and thus would have NOT had to go thru NDSU 4 times as early as they did. Couple other less blatant isolated cases (bids or seeds), and most recently, ISUb for 2018 ... again, 3 other teams with 6-4 records got bids ... once was the 6th team from Colonial ... how'd that work out for Colonial this past year ?

And I'll again finish with this ... .631 without our best team, better than any other conference with their best team, way way better than any other conference without their best team .. let it sink in at some point.

p.s. and thanks for bringing up all the creme puff autobids UNH has drawn at home over this time frame; it is part of my SOS arguement ... so thanks. I don't put UNI over Lamar in this category .. Lamar was hot and clearly on bubble, if not deserving. Many of those UNH playin games were against teams would not have been close to bubble.

Edits ... couple edits above to clean it up to bring it Reign's grammatical standards.

[clenz]

UNI also got Monmouth - though based on their finish in the Big South and being 9-2 they may qualify as a top 2 Big South team so based on YT's criteria they may be a quality team?

[Redbird 4th & short]

UNI also got Monmouth - though based on their finish in the Big South and being 9-2 they may qualify as a top 2 Big South team so based on YT's criteria they may be a quality team?
right, but they were an at large bid behind KSU .. granted a weak/disputable at large despite their 9-2 record which had them way over-ranked I believe. And you guys smoked them by 39 before being cannibalized in 2nd round by SDSU.

[Reign of Terrier]

UNI also got Monmouth - though based on their finish in the Big South and being 9-2 they may qualify as a top 2 Big South team so based on YT's criteria they may be a quality team?

They would not. Second place Big South is not historically a tough team, just like the third place Southland, fifth place MVFC team, etc.

Based on historical performance, we should be hesitant to extend a bid to:
3rd place Big Sky Team (though last year may have cemented the 3rd place team as worth a shot)
5th place MVFC/CAA
4th Place Socon
2nd place OVC/Big South/Patriot/Pioneer/NEC/MEAC
2nd Place Southland

The messy part, really, is the 3rd place Big Sky team (which, before last year, historically flopped), 2nd place Southland team (which also doesn't have a spectacular record) and 4th place Southern team. Socon only had 4 teams in once (2016 and they didn't do *too* bad) and they didn't do too bad, but there doesn't seem to be a correlation with the top 3 standings and wins in the socon (see Wofford 2016). To extent, the 4th place MVFC team has similar luck, but that luck radically diminishes if they aren't NDSU/SDSU/UNI. But I don't want to extend the same level of skepticism toward that fourth place team because it sounds kind of whacky to say the fourth place MVFC is similarly comparable to the fourth place Socon team, when the top 3 in the MVFC are almost certainly on average better than the top 3 on average than the socon.

A better way of thinking about this is that I only consider (assuming no ties) the "good" teams in the FCS to be:
Top 3 in the MVFC
Top 2/3 in the Big Sky
Top 2 in the Socon
Kennesaw State (/Big South team that's proven to be better than KSU)
Jacksonville State
The top 4 in the CAA.

The remaining 4 conferences can put themselves in the conversation (NC A&T is a good example) by racking up wins against teams OOC, and the dynamics of these rankings can shift over time. For instance, the Big Sky (with Weber and UC Davis) may have made themselves a consistent 3-teams-are-good league based on their playoff performance, and the CAA could be on a downward spiral if they lay an egg in the playoffs like they did last year going forward.

All of this is in flux and I'm not going to pretend like this model is perfectly predictive (see how the CAA performed last year in the playoffs). All I'm saying is that when we evaluate rankings and playoff spots, unless there is evidence to the contrary (say the Socon has 4 teams sitting at 8-3 or better, or a non-power conference team has a strong OOC performance but finishes second), I think this is the best heuristic to evaluate teams.

So in Monmouth's case when they played UNI, here was controversy over whether or not they deserved a bid, because they didn't play anyone. I thought they deserved a bid at the time, just to give them a chance. Well, the data's in, and unless they or their Big South compatriots do much better against the Socon opponents they have in the regular season, I don't see a reason to give them a second bid any time soon.

[clenz]

You constant need to put a 4th CAA team in there over another MVFC team when the numbers don't agree with that over the last 8 years is staggering.

That's all I'll say

[Reign of Terrier]

Making sh-t up again ... since 2010, MVFC has NEVER played an NEC or Patriot team for playin game ... and only ever had 1 playin game had the 1 game against Pioneer when WIU went on road in 2015 against Dayton. Do note, the 2 other MVFC vs Pioneer games were both San Diego vs NDSU ... but in both cases San Diego beat a Big Sky team (Cal Poly in 2016, NAU in 2017) for the right to face NDSU ... so not an easy playin game and in fact they were playin game winners over Big Sky ... besides we're required to exclude our best team while others apparently are not.

Also, I can't say this any clearer ... I have NOT complained about my ISUr playoff bid decisions since 2011 .... plain and simple. You love to move goal posts and state things that are just not true .... this one probably blows your mind, though I doubt you see it straight ... it is 100% facts supported fully by all most posts here and on Redbird Forum. You don't get to make sh-t up.

But yes, I have repeatedly defended the MVFC since 2011 .. usually YSU where their previous coach was fired because they got screwed out of 2 bids for sure IMO. Also SDSU several years ... not for missed bids, but for missed seeds .. they should have gotten more top 8 seeds and home games and thus would have NOT had to go thru NDSU 4 times as early as they did. Couple other less blatant isolated cases (bids or seeds), and most recently, ISUb for 2018 ... again, 3 other teams with 6-4 records got bids ... once was the 6th team from Colonial ... how'd that work out for Colonial this past year ?

And I'll again finish with this ... .631 without our best team, better than any other conference with their best team, way way better than any other conference without their best team .. let it sink in at some point.

p.s. and thanks for bringing up all the creme puff autobids UNH has drawn at home over this time frame; it is part of my SOS arguement ... so thanks. I don't put UNI over Lamar in this category .. Lamar was hot and clearly on bubble, if not deserving. Many of those UNH playin games were against teams would not have been close to bubble.

Edits ... couple edits above to clean it up to bring it Reign's grammatical standards.

Beating up the Southland isn't something to brag about but congrats. These are the first round opponents of the MVFC since 2010:
2010: Lehigh (which is a Patriot League Team, so you're wrong) L
2010: Coastal Carolina W*
2012: Eastern Illinois W
2013: Norther Arizona W
2014: SFA W (SFA was third place in the Southland) W
2014: Montana State (3rd place in the Big Sky) W
2014: Eastern Kentucky* W
2015: Eastern Illinois W
2015: Montana L
2015: Dayton W*
2016: Samford W*
2016: Central Arkansas L*
2017: Weber State L*
2017: Nicholls State W*
2017: Monmouth W
2018: Lamar W

These are the opponents not played by UNI/SDSU in the first round
2010: Coastal Carolina 2010 (6-5, holy cow)
2014: Eastern Kentucky (second place OVC team)
2015: Dayton (Pioneer)
2016: Samford (fourth place in the Socon, lost to second year program ETSU the week before)
2016: Central Arkansas (second place in the Southland, lost by 30 to Sam Houston State a few weeks prior, again the Southland has very few playoff wins outside of SHSU)
2017: Weber State
2017: Nicholls State (third place in the Southland)

The MVFC is 5-2 in first round games not played by NDSU/SDSU/UNI but this is a very unimpressive list, as their opponents were at low probability to win in the first place. They lost to the two most impressive teams on this resume, Weber and UCA, whereas CCU 2010 and Samford 2016 didn't have 7 D1 wins. OVC teams not named JSU like EKU will almost always lose, unless they're playing a non-scholarship team or another OVC team. If someone in the MVFC were to beat Nicholls state this year in the first round, that would be impressive, but in 2017 not so much. Outside of SHSU, the third place Southland team usually does terribly

[Reign of Terrier]

You constant need to put a 4th CAA team in there over another MVFC team when the numbers don't agree with that over the last 8 years is staggering.

That's all I'll say

Go through their conference standings via wiki and their fourth place teams has a better win percentage and total wins than most other conferences. I'll do that when I get home.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Go through their conference standings via wiki and their fourth place teams has a better win percentage and total wins than most other conferences. I'll do that when I get home.

"Most other conferences" ??? You think you need to compare 4th place teams in any other conferences outside of MVFC and Colonial ?? We're not comparing them to "most other conferences" ... we already dispelled notion that Big Sky has had playoff depth comparable to MVFC over 2010-18 period .... right ?? Same for Souhtland .. both team fall off a cliff in playoff record after removing their top team .. right ? Not disputable.

So save yourself the trouble and just compare Colonial to MVFC .. if you seriously think other conference playoff caliber depth is still up for debate, I may actually give up for good.

Now that is NOT to say or predict, Big Sky won't have another "better than usual" year like 2018 ... but how about they earn it a little more .. you know, like MVFC has earned it with a .631 win % from 2011-18 for the Wings alone .. yet we still get short end of stick come playoffs for some odd reason.

And correct, we did get Patriot/Lehigh back in 2010 and UNI lost .. my original claims were all about 2011-18, since I acknowledged Colonial owned 2010 & prior. Professor is the one who went back to 2010.

[Reign of Terrier]

"Most other conferences" ??? You think you need to compare 4th place teams in any other conferences outside of MVFC and Colonial ?? We're not comparing them to "most other conferences" ... we already dispelled notion that Big Sky has had playoff depth comparable to MVFC over 2010-18 period .... right ?? Same for Souhtland .. both team fall off a cliff in playoff record after removing their top team .. right ? Not disputable.

So save yourself the trouble and just compare Colonial to MVFC .. if you seriously think other conference playoff caliber depth is still up for debate, I may actually give up for good.

Now that is NOT to say or predict, Big Sky won't have another "better than usual" year like 2018 ... but how about they earn it a little more .. you know, like MVFC has earned it with a .631 win % from 2011-18 for the Wings alone .. yet we still get short end of stick come playoffs for some odd reason.

And correct, we did get Patriot/Lehigh back in 2010 and UNI lost .. my original claims were all about 2011-18, since I acknowledged Colonial owned 2010 & prior. Professor is the one who went back to 2010.

You're being intentionally dense (I was obviously referring to fourth place playoff record, see below), so I'm going to stop engaging with you because it's too much of a chore.

Here are the playoff records of at-large teams in the first round, based on conference standing in order of number of wins since 2008 (2008 was arbitrary, I can get different framed numbers if you want, but this took me an hour):

MVFC 2nd: 9-2 (which, by the way, is as good as any conference but the Southern's first team)
CAA 2nd: 8-3
MVFC 3rd: 7-0 (very impressive tbh)
CAA 3rd: 7-4
CAA 4th: 6-3
Southland 2nd: 6-5
Big Sky 2nd: 6-5
Southern 2nd: 4-6
Southern 3rd: 3-2
MVFC 4th: 2-2
Big South 2nd: 2-2 (note: the Big South is on a 2 game losing streak)

To contextualize these numbers, the 4th place CAA team has a better win percentage/more wins than all conferences but the MVFC's second best team. Maybe, that's inflated by the New Hampshire games I've alluded to before. And the third place MVFC is a step above the 3rd best CAA team. And then it's a cliff.

Either way, I'm inclined to "aware at large bids" so to speak in the sequential order above, unless there's an obvious flaw (though I would take the Big South out of the lineup because they aren't what they used to be), like the fact that the Big Sky's 3rd best team deserved to be in much earlier than the sequence above.

Conference standings are fairly predictive, but you can tell where there's a drop off in the average quality of teams in the conference via win percentage. For the Big Sky, it's the gap between second and third place, Big South after 1st, CAA after fourth, MVFC after 3rd, in the southern there's 2 gaps, from first to second and then third to fourth, and in the Southland it's after second. And for conferences like the OVC, NEC, MEAC, Patriot, and Pioneer, everyone is under water.

So, when I'm saying there's valid comparison between conferences between HURDUR WE PLAY THEM EVERY YEAR GIVE ME MY PARTICIPATION I mean you can tell based on prior performance how a team will do. I didn't even dissect the SOS of the teams played, but my intuition is that the reason why the second place socon team (just to name one example) doesn't have as good of a win percentage as the fourth place CAA team or second place Big Sky team has a lot to do with geography (2008, second place Wofford was sent to #1 seed JMU, for instance)

So, with all that in mind, I feel comfortable if the MVFC gets at least 3 bids a year, CAA 4, Southland 2, Southern 1, Big Sky 2. But I'm queasy if I see the Big South, OVC, NEC, MEAC, Patriot, or Pioneer get a second bid without a significant amount of evidence before, say, the second place Southern Team.

[Reign of Terrier]

Addendum to the last post: don't be fooled by the Southland's record at second place, their first and second place teams have an identical record in the playoffs (6-5). For Southland teams, the best predictor for success is Sam Houston State. So, to be clear, the top 3 in the Socon are probably better on average than a Sam Houston State-less Southland playoff delegation, which is why last year Furman getting shafted for Incarnate Word/Lamar is kind of infuriating

[Reign of Terrier]

Win percentages/records in first playoff game (i.e first round or second round if they have a bye) since 2008: (I can adjust the time period, this was just my original data set)



MVFC
28-8
0.778


CAA
31-15
0.674


Big Sky
18-14
0.563


Southern
17-10
0.630


Southland
13-12
0.520


Big South
8-5
0.615


OVC
6-12
0.333


Patriot
4-7
0.364


Pioneer
2-4
0.333


NEC
2-8
0.200


MEAC
0-10
0.000



I feel like this and the other data I've put forward in this thread can tell us a lot more about playoff selection and expectation for first round matchups that simply playoff record in and of itself.

[Daytripper]

I don't know why I still click on this thread....

[kalm]

"Most other conferences" ??? You think you need to compare 4th place teams in any other conferences outside of MVFC and Colonial ?? We're not comparing them to "most other conferences" ... we already dispelled notion that Big Sky has had playoff depth comparable to MVFC over 2010-18 period .... right ?? Same for Souhtland .. both team fall off a cliff in playoff record after removing their top team .. right ? Not disputable.

So save yourself the trouble and just compare Colonial to MVFC .. if you seriously think other conference playoff caliber depth is still up for debate, I may actually give up for good.

Now that is NOT to say or predict, Big Sky won't have another "better than usual" year like 2018 ... but how about they earn it a little more .. you know, like MVFC has earned it with a .631 win % from 2011-18 for the Wings alone .. yet we still get short end of stick come playoffs for some odd reason.

And correct, we did get Patriot/Lehigh back in 2010 and UNI lost .. my original claims were all about 2011-18, since I acknowledged Colonial owned 2010 & prior. Professor is the one who went back to 2010.

Has anyone used # of home playoff games and opponent’s strength as metrics in this grand debate?

[JSUSoutherner]

I don't know why I still click on this thread....

Yeah, I mean repetitively clicking this thread won't make SHSU suddenly appear in the top 25. :D

[Redbird 4th & short]

You're being intentionally dense (I was obviously referring to fourth place playoff record, see below), so I'm going to stop engaging with you because it's too much of a chore.

Here are the playoff records of at-large teams in the first round, based on conference standing in order of number of wins since 2008 (2008 was arbitrary, I can get different framed numbers if you want, but this took me an hour):

MVFC 2nd: 9-2 (which, by the way, is as good as any conference but the Southern's first team)
CAA 2nd: 8-3
MVFC 3rd: 7-0 (very impressive tbh)
CAA 3rd: 7-4
CAA 4th: 6-3
Southland 2nd: 6-5
Big Sky 2nd: 6-5
Southern 2nd: 4-6
Southern 3rd: 3-2
MVFC 4th: 2-2
Big South 2nd: 2-2 (note: the Big South is on a 2 game losing streak)

To contextualize these numbers, the 4th place CAA team has a better win percentage/more wins than all conferences but the MVFC's second best team. Maybe, that's inflated by the New Hampshire games I've alluded to before. And the third place MVFC is a step above the 3rd best CAA team. And then it's a cliff.

Either way, I'm inclined to "aware at large bids" so to speak in the sequential order above, unless there's an obvious flaw (though I would take the Big South out of the lineup because they aren't what they used to be), like the fact that the Big Sky's 3rd best team deserved to be in much earlier than the sequence above.

Conference standings are fairly predictive, but you can tell where there's a drop off in the average quality of teams in the conference via win percentage. For the Big Sky, it's the gap between second and third place, Big South after 1st, CAA after fourth, MVFC after 3rd, in the southern there's 2 gaps, from first to second and then third to fourth, and in the Southland it's after second. And for conferences like the OVC, NEC, MEAC, Patriot, and Pioneer, everyone is under water.

So, when I'm saying there's valid comparison between conferences between HURDUR WE PLAY THEM EVERY YEAR GIVE ME MY PARTICIPATION I mean you can tell based on prior performance how a team will do. I didn't even dissect the SOS of the teams played, but my intuition is that the reason why the second place socon team (just to name one example) doesn't have as good of a win percentage as the fourth place CAA team or second place Big Sky team has a lot to do with geography (2008, second place Wofford was sent to #1 seed JMU, for instance)

So, with all that in mind, I feel comfortable if the MVFC gets at least 3 bids a year, CAA 4, Southland 2, Southern 1, Big Sky 2. But I'm queasy if I see the Big South, OVC, NEC, MEAC, Patriot, or Pioneer get a second bid without a significant amount of evidence before, say, the second place Southern Team.

Again with magic number 3 for MVFC .... hilarious !!!

And there you go again moving goal posts .. in middle of argument you dial the clock back further .. no doubt because you didn't get the answer you wanted .... right ?? I started with 2011-18. Professor did 2010-18, which helped Colonial and Big Sky some. So what do you do, you just roll back to 2008 so you could add in 3 dominant Colonial years ... I already acknowledge Colonial dominated 2010 & prior. My point from beginning has been that FCS landscape shifted in 2011 .. so I'm not arguing 2010 & prior.

As for your analytics dividing every conference by finishing place ... I think if you further subdivide this based on jersey color, you might also find a color or 2 where Colonial did better than MVFC.

Playing along ... Note, in 2015, UNI and SDSU tied for 3rd/4th .. SDSU lost on road to Montana by 7, but UNI won 2 games before losing to NDSU in quarters .. UNI MAY have won tie breaker, but I don't know. Also note, in 2014, SDSU beat Mont St on road, then lost to NDSU by 3 in quarters. Aside from that, my 6-5 ISUr (4th place) lost to 9-2 UCA (2nd place) by 7 on road. So you didn't reflect UNI (2-1), and you also missed removing 2 losses to NDSU for SDSU and UNI.

And why no mention of 5th place teams ... I think MVFC is 2-2 .. which is pretty damn good showing for a 5th place team since both made it to round of 16 ... right ?? Both played weaker teams, much like many of those NEC, Patriot, and MEAC teams Colonial enjoyed at home over the years.

- ISUb was 1-1 in 2014 .. both games on road
- WIU was 1-1 in 2015 .. both games on road

Most made round of 16 playing on road, but 4th place and 5th place teams from MVFC don't deserve a spot .. despite having about a .500 win % across all teams ... just like entire Colonial conference win %'s, including or excluding UNH or JMU for 2011-18; and way better than Big Sky and Southland excl EWU and SHSU ... again, I'm talking about our 4th and 5th place teams record being better than Big Sky and Southlands 2nd and 3rd place teams in playoff win %, and just as good as Colonials however you slice it .. going back to 2011, not 2008.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Addendum to the last post: don't be fooled by the Southland's record at second place, their first and second place teams have an identical record in the playoffs (6-5). For Southland teams, the best predictor for success is Sam Houston State. So, to be clear, the top 3 in the Socon are probably better on average than a Sam Houston State-less Southland playoff delegation, which is why last year Furman getting shafted for Incarnate Word/Lamar is kind of infuriating


6 bids last year for the CAA was too many. And they proved that right.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Has anyone used # of home playoff games and opponent’s strength as metrics in this grand debate?
I've promised to redo my 2011-18 analytics with home & away .. maybe this weekend. But based on bunch of examples, MVFC vs Colonial is pretty clear ... we play a lot on road, they play a lot at home especially with playin games. This will only further support my argument ... and Reign will completely dismiss it no matter how one sided it is - in fact, he already dismissed it as not a factor in one of his posts, but I didn't have total numbers .. just a bunch of examples.

SOS argument is legit wway to argue this, but is hard and would go nowhere with Reign .. he doesn't acknowledge facts, much less anything short of 100% factual that doesn't align with his point.

[Daytripper]

Yeah, I mean repetitively clicking this thread won't make SHSU suddenly appear in the top 25. :D

More evidence here: https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?231347-Most-Annoying-FCS-Coaches/page3

[Reign of Terrier]

Has anyone used # of home playoff games and opponent’s strength as metrics in this grand debate?

I'm not acknowledging the other guy "debating" here because he's clearly either not smart enough to understand my argument, arguing in bad faith. I acknowledged 2008 was arbitrary and his criticism and his criticism of the CAA is invalid, yes the top 4 won all of their games in 2008-2010, but if you take those games out, or go since 2014, the CAA has a better win percentage at fourth place than many conferences do at second place. I acknowledged the arbitrary nature of 2008, but the data seems pretty consistent over time. The reason I stopped at the Big South's second place was because not other team had more than 2 wins or was at .500 and at that point I don't think the samples are too small to make any strong judgments relative to the listed teams.

But hey, Red Fowl can get off at being a near miss team, shun nuance, and let everyone else do the work of thinking for him. It's his life.

As for your actual question, I don't really know the answer, but my intuition is that the Socon is at the best chance of getting screwed. For examples, since 2006, the Socon has gotten at least 2 teams in 12 of 13 years, and all but one of those years (Wofford 2012) our second place team was either sent on the road or matched up against a conference champion. And being sent *on the road to a conference champ* has happened 6 times (Montana 2007, JMU 2008, Richmond 2009, UNI 2011, Kennesaw 2017, Jacksonville State 2018). That's 50%! There's lot of historical three way ties in the Socon, but I define the second team that didn't get the autobid, but beat the other team in the tie.

On top of that, I think part of the reason why the third place MVFC team has such a great first round record is because of who they've played. One can scan wikipedia for the details as I have posted enough data on this thread, but that seems like a convincing argument to me.

Now, does the possibility of win inflation (easy first round games for non-elite teams) take away the dominance of the CAA/MVFC? Not really. As I mentioned with New Hampshire, a lot of these "inflated" teams made the semifinals.

The more I look at it, the more I'm convinced that the real people who get hosed by the way the playoffs are structured are the small-ish programs in the southeast/mid-atlantic who are within travel distance and don't get a high seed (teams in the carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Virginia). That doesn't mean that the teams that have won a lot don't deserve it, but the aforementioned southern/mid-atlantic teams are less likely to get out of the first round because of scheduling.


6 bids last year for the CAA was too many. And they proved that right.

I don't think any team deserves five in unless the overall field is really weak.

[kalm]

I'm not acknowledging the other guy "debating" here because he's clearly either not smart enough to understand my argument, arguing in bad faith. I acknowledged 2008 was arbitrary and his criticism and his criticism of the CAA is invalid, yes the top 4 won all of their games in 2008-2010, but if you take those games out, or go since 2014, the CAA has a better win percentage at fourth place than many conferences do at second place. I acknowledged the arbitrary nature of 2008, but the data seems pretty consistent over time. The reason I stopped at the Big South's second place was because not other team had more than 2 wins or was at .500 and at that point I don't think the samples are too small to make any strong judgments relative to the listed teams.

But hey, Red Fowl can get off at being a near miss team, shun nuance, and let everyone else do the work of thinking for him. It's his life.

As for your actual question, I don't really know the answer, but my intuition is that the Socon is at the best chance of getting screwed. For examples, since 2006, the Socon has gotten at least 2 teams in 12 of 13 years, and all but one of those years (Wofford 2012) our second place team was either sent on the road or matched up against a conference champion. And being sent *on the road to a conference champ* has happened 6 times (Montana 2007, JMU 2008, Richmond 2009, UNI 2011, Kennesaw 2017, Jacksonville State 2018). That's 50%! There's lot of historical three way ties in the Socon, but I define the second team that didn't get the autobid, but beat the other team in the tie.

On top of that, I think part of the reason why the third place MVFC team has such a great first round record is because of who they've played. One can scan wikipedia for the details as I have posted enough data on this thread, but that seems like a convincing argument to me.

Now, does the possibility of win inflation (easy first round games for non-elite teams) take away the dominance of the CAA/MVFC? Not really. As I mentioned with New Hampshire, a lot of these "inflated" teams made the semifinals.

The more I look at it, the more I'm convinced that the real people who get hosed by the way the playoffs are structured are the small-ish programs in the southeast/mid-atlantic who are within travel distance and don't get a high seed (teams in the carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Virginia). That doesn't mean that the teams that have won a lot don't deserve it, but the aforementioned southern/mid-atlantic teams are less likely to get out of the first round because of scheduling.



I don't think any team deserves five in unless the overall field is really weak.

Your recollection is different than mine.

Almost every year it seems like the CAA gets an NEC and/or Patriot.

Throw out San Diego 3 times and the Big Sky playoff matchups look more like this...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weber_State_Wildcats_football

[Redbird 4th & short]

I'm not acknowledging the other guy "debating" here because he's clearly either not smart enough to understand my argument, arguing in bad faith. I acknowledged 2008 was arbitrary and his criticism and his criticism of the CAA is invalid, yes the top 4 won all of their games in 2008-2010, but if you take those games out, or go since 2014, the CAA has a better win percentage at fourth place than many conferences do at second place. I acknowledged the arbitrary nature of 2008, but the data seems pretty consistent over time. The reason I stopped at the Big South's second place was because not other team had more than 2 wins or was at .500 and at that point I don't think the samples are too small to make any strong judgments relative to the listed teams.

But hey, Red Fowl can get off at being a near miss team, shun nuance, and let everyone else do the work of thinking for him. It's his life.

As for your actual question, I don't really know the answer, but my intuition is that the Socon is at the best chance of getting screwed. For examples, since 2006, the Socon has gotten at least 2 teams in 12 of 13 years, and all but one of those years (Wofford 2012) our second place team was either sent on the road or matched up against a conference champion. And being sent *on the road to a conference champ* has happened 6 times (Montana 2007, JMU 2008, Richmond 2009, UNI 2011, Kennesaw 2017, Jacksonville State 2018). That's 50%! There's lot of historical three way ties in the Socon, but I define the second team that didn't get the autobid, but beat the other team in the tie.

On top of that, I think part of the reason why the third place MVFC team has such a great first round record is because of who they've played. One can scan wikipedia for the details as I have posted enough data on this thread, but that seems like a convincing argument to me.

Now, does the possibility of win inflation (easy first round games for non-elite teams) take away the dominance of the CAA/MVFC? Not really. As I mentioned with New Hampshire, a lot of these "inflated" teams made the semifinals.

The more I look at it, the more I'm convinced that the real people who get hosed by the way the playoffs are structured are the small-ish programs in the southeast/mid-atlantic who are within travel distance and don't get a high seed (teams in the carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Virginia). That doesn't mean that the teams that have won a lot don't deserve it, but the aforementioned southern/mid-atlantic teams are less likely to get out of the first round because of scheduling.



I don't think any team deserves five in unless the overall field is really weak.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/8d/eb/5b/8deb5baa683659a5aadd75096d31b44b.jpg
(https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwj1laTGyu7jAhXDdN8KHS4QC_UQjRx6BAgBEAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pinterest.com%2Fpin%2F918312 79880853142%2F&psig=AOvVaw1_ky7RSmoAkBv3oy90NPqM&ust=1565192493665451)

[Redbird 4th & short]

Your recollection is different than mine.

Almost every year it seems like the CAA gets an NEC and/or Patriot.

Throw out San Diego 3 times and the Big Sky playoff matchups look more like this...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weber_State_Wildcats_football
even still .. Big Sky and MVFC playoff teams share the one traditionally weak autobid Pioneer. Up until the recent mergence of Colgate and KSU, we typically had 3 or 4 weak auto bids out east (and south east): NEC, Patriot, Big South, and MEAC. And Colonial got to feast on all 4 usually in 1st round games. Last 2 years have been unusually strong as autobids go ... last year was probably the best autobid field ever. But prior to 2016, there were many cupcakes out east getting autobids. Noting Pioneer didn't start getting autobids until 2012.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

even still .. Big Sky and MVFC playoff teams share the one traditionally weak autobid Pioneer. Up until the recent mergence of Colgate and KSU, we typically had 3 or 4 weak auto bids out east (and south east): NEC, Patriot, Big South, and MEAC. And Colonial got to feast on all 4 usually in 1st round games. Last 2 years have been unusually strong as autobids go ... last year was probably the best autobid field ever. But prior to 2016, there were many cupcakes out east getting autobids. Noting Pioneer didn't start getting autobids until 2012.

Just of note, the PL won playoff games in 2010 (MVFC), 2011 (CAA), 2013 (NEC), 2014 (NEC), 2015(CAA) and 2018 (CAA).

[Reign of Terrier]

Your recollection is different than mine.

Almost every year it seems like the CAA gets an NEC and/or Patriot.

Throw out San Diego 3 times and the Big Sky playoff matchups look more like this...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weber_State_Wildcats_football

I'm developing this theory slowly over time (because I have a social life), but I think a combination of geography and crowd size will determine how easy your draw is. Put another way, if you're unseeded, but play West of the Mississippi river and have a history of strong crowd sizes, you'll probably get a favorable first round draw.

Wofford beat App State in 2011, but App State got a home game, while Wofford got shipped to MVFC co-champ UNI. Meanwhile, if you look at JMU, the game @ Colgate and @ NDSU were 66% of the away games they've played out of conference PERIOD in the last decade. Youngstown State has similarly only played 2 OOC games in the last 10 years or so, both in the playoffs in 2016.

Out west, UNI/SDSU/NDSU are in good shape to get a first round home game most of the time (without checking the details, I think SDSU is the least likely of these), while Montana and Montana State are more likely to get a home game as at large teams (EWU usually gets one as a seed) which usually entails a touch of creampuffs, but I'm not really sure about Weber, Cal Poly, etc. Big Sky teams have better attendance in general I think.

So, it's kind of weird IMO, regardless of what you think about comparative playoff quality, that you can bet that western teams and New England teams are more likely to get these "easy" games. It's easy to dump on Jacksonville State, but they've never had an NEC/Patriot/Pioneer and they've never had to play an OVC team in the play-in game (OVC teams in Illinois/Tennessee can't say that). It's also easy to dump on Kennesaw State or Charleston Southern from a few years ago, but compared to the first round games of Coastal Carolina/Stony Brook that almost certainly involved flights or involved proximity to New England(Western Illinois in 2010, Villanova and Albany, Bethune Cookman 2012-2013), they've had comparably more difficult games, playing the second best socon team/co-champ in the first game too.

And this isn't just a Socon/OVC/Big South thing. As a matter of fact, I'd argue it's limited to the geography of the carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, and Virginia because that's where all these smaller schools (attendance-wise) who play good ball are. Tennessee and Illinois are in the sweet spot because their geography is more central, so they play teams in the MVFC, Southland, and even the likes of the Patriot. But if you look at Richmond, Elon or William & Mary, who are like fellow CAA member JMU with similar geography, but different in terms of crowd size, you'll see their first round scheduling is similarly daunting the aforementioned Socon/OVC/Big South teams. JMU doesn't have that problem because of their crowd size.

So yeah, Weber State is probably the exception to the rule, and Cal Poly probably would be too if they actually won home playoff games, but I see a pervasive pattern in the southeast that hoses teams in this geographic area in terms of first round games more so than others.

[Reign of Terrier]

[/QUOTE]


Just of note, the PL won playoff games in 2010 (MVFC), 2011 (CAA), 2013 (NEC), 2014 (NEC), 2015(CAA) and 2018 (CAA).

Patriot Autobid (4-6) is more likely to win their first round playoff game than the OVC Autobid (3-7)

[CenMEBlackBearFan]

I'm developing this theory slowly over time (because I have a social life), but I think a combination of geography and crowd size will determine how easy your draw is. Put another way, if you're unseeded, but play West of the Mississippi river and have a history of strong crowd sizes, you'll probably get a favorable first round draw.

Wofford beat App State in 2011, but App State got a home game, while Wofford got shipped to MVFC co-champ UNI. Meanwhile, if you look at JMU, the game @ Colgate and @ NDSU were 66% of the away games they've played out of conference PERIOD in the last decade. Youngstown State has similarly only played 2 OOC games in the last 10 years or so, both in the playoffs in 2016.

Out west, UNI/SDSU/NDSU are in good shape to get a first round home game most of the time (without checking the details, I think SDSU is the least likely of these), while Montana and Montana State are more likely to get a home game as at large teams (EWU usually gets one as a seed) which usually entails a touch of creampuffs, but I'm not really sure about Weber, Cal Poly, etc. Big Sky teams have better attendance in general I think.

So, it's kind of weird IMO, regardless of what you think about comparative playoff quality, that you can bet that western teams and New England teams are more likely to get these "easy" games. It's easy to dump on Jacksonville State, but they've never had an NEC/Patriot/Pioneer and they've never had to play an OVC team in the play-in game (OVC teams in Illinois/Tennessee can't say that). It's also easy to dump on Kennesaw State or Charleston Southern from a few years ago, but compared to the first round games of Coastal Carolina/Stony Brook that almost certainly involved flights or involved proximity to New England(Western Illinois in 2010, Villanova and Albany, Bethune Cookman 2012-2013), they've had comparably more difficult games, playing the second best socon team/co-champ in the first game too.

And this isn't just a Socon/OVC/Big South thing. As a matter of fact, I'd argue it's limited to the geography of the carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, and Virginia because that's where all these smaller schools (attendance-wise) who play good ball are. Tennessee and Illinois are in the sweet spot because their geography is more central, so they play teams in the MVFC, Southland, and even the likes of the Patriot. But if you look at Richmond, Elon or William & Mary, who are like fellow CAA member JMU with similar geography, but different in terms of crowd size, you'll see their first round scheduling is similarly daunting the aforementioned Socon/OVC/Big South teams. JMU doesn't have that problem because of their crowd size.

So yeah, Weber State is probably the exception to the rule, and Cal Poly probably would be too if they actually won home playoff games, but I see a pervasive pattern in the southeast that hoses teams in this geographic area in terms of first round games more so than others.

If it's any consolation to Wofford, Maine took it to App. State at home 34-12. Had a great time in Boone on 12/3/11xbowx

[Reign of Terrier]

If it's any consolation to Wofford, Maine took it to App. State at home 34-12. Had a great time in Boone on 12/3/11xbowx

Doing God's work tbh

[Redbird 4th & short]

Patriot Autobid (4-6) is more likely to win their first round playoff game than the OVC Autobid (3-7)[/QUOTE]

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Yes, 4-6 is better than 3-7 .. but I had no doubt you could do the math. My question is can you look beneath the record itself at SOS, home/road, etc ?
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