Toughest schedules

[Schism55]

https://herosports.com/fcs/football-2019-toughest-schedules-bzbz

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Shows how little they think of the Patriot League (rightfully show based on the last two years). Colgate and Holy Cross's OOC slates are easily among the toughest in FCS....

Colgate
Villanova
@ Air Force
@ William & Mary
Maine
@ Dartmouth

Holy Cross
@ Navy
UNH
@ Yale
@ Syracuse
@ Brown
Harvard

[PaladinFan]

Furman's schedule actually feels less intimidating this year than in previous years, though it probably isn't.

I assume that is because we are probably a front runner and have two FBS games on the schedule. Ga. State, of course, is not a world beater of an FBS team and probably a game Furman could (should?) win.

[Mike296]

Furman's schedule actually feels less intimidating this year than in previous years, though it probably isn't.

I assume that is because we are probably a front runner and have two FBS games on the schedule. Ga. State, of course, is not a world beater of an FBS team and probably a game Furman could (should?) win.

Ga St is a weird team, when they’re good they can absolutely be a threat(2015 and 2017 being good examples of that.) when they’re bad, they’re just abysmal. I like to call them the FBS counterpart to Kennesaw St, they’re a program that’s not even been around for a decade yet and has had some success mixed in with some utter abysmal performances. Kennesaw has shot up the Big South but cmon we all know that the Big South is an awful conference and that even Ga St could come down and steamroll that conference. No offense to KSU, you’re doing well for a startup. I wish I could say the same for ETSU lol....


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[Milktruck74]

I could argue for one more slot for my Mocs....but all the teams in the top ten of this list have a really tough year. Comparing the new staff to last years will be difficult for Chattanooga, because we could be a much better team with a worse record. I’m sticking to the conference to compare apples to apples.


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[PaladinFan]

Ga St is a weird team, when they’re good they can absolutely be a threat(2015 and 2017 being good examples of that.) when they’re bad, they’re just abysmal. I like to call them the FBS counterpart to Kennesaw St, they’re a program that’s not even been around for a decade yet and has had some success mixed in with some utter abysmal performances. Kennesaw has shot up the Big South but cmon we all know that the Big South is an awful conference and that even Ga St could come down and steamroll that conference. No offense to KSU, you’re doing well for a startup. I wish I could say the same for ETSU lol....


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I look at Georgia State like a top 15 or 20 FCS team. That is, they'll be tough but won't have the depth and talent to pull away from a good FCS team like the bigger programs can.

I see Furman/GSU as a 50/50 game and really no different than if the Paladins had scheduled Elon, Jacksonville State, or Kennesaw in that slot.

[Redbird 4th & short]

So let's see, ISUr didn't make top 30 or the next 6 honorable mention .... .. so we're outside the top 36 ?? Yeah, this criteria makes sense.

Here is weak example .. Incarnate Word SOS is 28th

1. Southland as a conference ranked 6th in 2018 using Massey Composite of 35+ polls
2. FBS game UTSA .. they ranked 123rd (of 130) in 2018 using Massey Composite ... and would drop to #158 if FCS teams were included .. well outside the FCS top 25
3. FBS game NM St .. they ranked 125th in 2018 using Massey Composite .. and would drop to #168 if FCS teams were included .. well outside the FCS top 25
4. In 2019, the play just 2 FCS playoff teams from 2018 ... one being Lamar, who was very questionable bid at 6-4, and Nicholls (good team)

So they really play just 1 true FCS level playoff team from a year ago out of 12 games .. and this is the 28th toughest schedule ???

Hero needs to step up their game and look an inch beneath the surface.

[The Cats]

Five of the 10 SoCon members' schedules rank in the top 30 toughest.


#26. Furman

#11. Western Carolina

#10. VMI

#5. The Citadel

#2. Chattanooga

[Catatonic]

So let's see, ISUr didn't make top 30 or the next 6 honorable mention .... .. so we're outside the top 36 ?? Yeah, this criteria makes sense.

Here is weak example .. Incarnate Word SOS is 28th

1. Southland as a conference ranked 6th in 2018 using Massey Composite of 35+ polls
2. FBS game UTSA .. they ranked 123rd (of 130) in 2018 using Massey Composite ... and would drop to #158 if FCS teams were included .. well outside the FCS top 25
3. FBS game NM St .. they ranked 125th in 2018 using Massey Composite .. and would drop to #168 if FCS teams were included .. well outside the FCS top 25
4. In 2019, the play just 2 FCS playoff teams from 2018 ... one being Lamar, who was very questionable bid at 6-4, and Nicholls (good team)

So they really play just 1 true FCS level playoff team from a year ago out of 12 games .. and this is the 28th toughest schedule ???

Hero needs to step up their game and look an inch beneath the surface.



UNI held on to eek out a 3 point win at home against Lamar in the playoffs. If holding your own on the road against a mighty MVFC playoff team doesn’t establish legitimacy, what does in your opinion? BTW, what was th score of the UNI-ISU game last year?

[JSUSoutherner]

I could argue for one more slot for my Mocs....but all the teams in the top ten of this list have a really tough year. Comparing the new staff to last years will be difficult for Chattanooga, because we could be a much better team with a worse record. I’m sticking to the conference to compare apples to apples.


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You could argue, but I think you'd lose that argument. That's not to say UTCs schedule isn't tough, anywho who thinks otherwise is a moron, but that UND schedule... Sweet jesus.

Also, for the Georgia State thing, they suck and any respectable FCS team should beat them.

Kennesaw screwed the pooch in that game. Big time.

[clenz]

UNI held on to eek out a 3 point win at home against Lamar in the playoffs. If holding your own on the road against a mighty MVFC playoff team doesn’t establish legitimacy, what does in your opinion? BTW, what was th score of the UNI-ISU game last year?Classic example of a score not reflecting a game.

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[katss07]

So let's see, ISUr didn't make top 30 or the next 6 honorable mention .... .. so we're outside the top 36 ?? Yeah, this criteria makes sense.

Here is weak example .. Incarnate Word SOS is 28th

1. Southland as a conference ranked 6th in 2018 using Massey Composite of 35+ polls
2. FBS game UTSA .. they ranked 123rd (of 130) in 2018 using Massey Composite ... and would drop to #158 if FCS teams were included .. well outside the FCS top 25
3. FBS game NM St .. they ranked 125th in 2018 using Massey Composite .. and would drop to #168 if FCS teams were included .. well outside the FCS top 25
4. In 2019, the play just 2 FCS playoff teams from 2018 ... one being Lamar, who was very questionable bid at 6-4, and Nicholls (good team)

So they really play just 1 true FCS level playoff team from a year ago out of 12 games .. and this is the 28th toughest schedule ???

Hero needs to step up their game and look an inch beneath the surface.
UIW plays 2 FCS “level” playoff games. Because Lamar made the playoffs.

[Redbird 4th & short]

UIW plays 2 FCS “level” playoff games. Because Lamar made the playoffs.
yes, they did

[Redbird 4th & short]

UNI held on to eek out a 3 point win at home against Lamar in the playoffs. If holding your own on the road against a mighty MVFC playoff team doesn’t establish legitimacy, what does in your opinion? BTW, what was th score of the UNI-ISU game last year?
You can always find a single data point and win either side of any argument. I prefer to look at all the data points.

That said .. it is possible Lamar "became" a solid playoff team as season progressed. And yes, Lamar competed well in their game against UNI. But there is no rational argument to be made for two 6-4 teams from Southland getting at large bids over a 6-4 team from MVFC. Massey Composite of 40 polls had Lamar ranked #45 and IW #38 .... average of 40 polls. It's not rocket science .. but single data points never tell the whole story.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm

[lionsrking2]

So let's see, ISUr didn't make top 30 or the next 6 honorable mention .... .. so we're outside the top 36 ?? Yeah, this criteria makes sense.

Here is weak example .. Incarnate Word SOS is 28th

1. Southland as a conference ranked 6th in 2018 using Massey Composite of 35+ polls
2. FBS game UTSA .. they ranked 123rd (of 130) in 2018 using Massey Composite ... and would drop to #158 if FCS teams were included .. well outside the FCS top 25
3. FBS game NM St .. they ranked 125th in 2018 using Massey Composite .. and would drop to #168 if FCS teams were included .. well outside the FCS top 25
4. In 2019, the play just 2 FCS playoff teams from 2018 ... one being Lamar, who was very questionable bid at 6-4, and Nicholls (good team)

So they really play just 1 true FCS level playoff team from a year ago out of 12 games .. and this is the 28th toughest schedule ???

Hero needs to step up their game and look an inch beneath the surface.

I take everything I read from Hero with a grain of salt but they did create a conversation piece, which, I guess, is the point. It is what it is.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I take everything I read from Hero with a grain of salt but they did create a conversation piece, which, I guess, is the point. It is what it is.
Agreed .. and normally don't take issue with Hero ... but when some teams annually target bottom 20 or bottom 10 FBS teams, and then act like this strengthens their schedule, someone has to call BS. Plus the issue for Southland getting 3 bids last year, same as MVFC, and sent two 6-4 teams while our 6-4 stayed home ... again, someone has to call BS.

Made no sense whatsoever. If you get walked on and don't say something, it will happen again. Back to this thread .. and my point is related ... There is no way our SOS isn't in top 36 ... I would argue top 15 and every objective computer system will agree with me. We play MVFC and a good G5 team (NIU, ranked in 70's). How there are 7 Southland teams with SOS ahead of us is just stupid.

It doesn't truly matter what Hero thinks .. but it does create a BS narrative and then the FCS selection committee goes into the room to make their selections. So just calling out the BS as I see it ... IMO.

[lionsrking2]

Agreed .. and normally don't take issue with Hero ... but when some teams annually target bottom 20 or bottom 10 FBS teams, and then act like this strengthens their schedule, someone has to call BS. Plus the issue for Southland getting 3 bids last year, same as MVFC, and sent two 6-4 teams while our 6-4 stayed home ... again, someone has to call BS.

Made no sense whatsoever. If you get walked on and don't say something, it will happen again. Back to this thread .. and my point is related ... There is no way our SOS isn't in top 36 ... I would argue top 15 and every objective computer system will agree with me. We play MVFC and a good G5 team (NIU, ranked in 70's). How there are 7 Southland teams with SOS ahead of us is just stupid.

It doesn't truly matter what Hero thinks .. but it does create a BS narrative and then the FCS selection committee goes into the room to make their selections. So just calling out the BS as I see it ... IMO.

No doubt Lamar improved as the season went on. At the time we played them, they were probably the 7th or 8th best Southland team we played last year, and would not have surprised me had they not won another game. Instead, they ripped off six of seven and earned a playoff bid. One can argue it but they were a worthy team at the end of the year. Regardless of computer rankings, the Southland is a better league than it gets credit for, especially now that Nicholls, Lamar and UIW have upped their game; and ACU will be a rising force in short order, now that they're out of the transition phase.

[Catatonic]

Classic example of a score not reflecting a game.

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True. Lamar won everywhere but the scoreboard. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/2101479002

[Redbird 4th & short]

No doubt Lamar improved as the season went on. At the time we played them, they were probably the 7th or 8th best Southland team we played last year, and would not have surprised me had they not won another game. Instead, they ripped off six of seven and earned a playoff bid. One can argue it but they were a worthy team at the end of the year. Regardless of computer rankings, the Southland is a better league than it gets credit for, especially now that Nicholls, Lamar and UIW have upped their game; and ACU will be a rising force in short order, now that they're out of the transition phase.
I wont be surprised if Southland us deeper this year. Not sure they will be any stronger at top .. but can see them being deeper with solid teams.

Time will tell.

[Redbird 4th & short]

True. Lamar won everywhere but the scoreboard. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/2101479002
I am curious what clenz meant .. Lamar played them tough .. but had 2 missed FGs and 3 fumbles .. game could have gone either way if not for these drive ending plays.

[Catatonic]

No doubt Lamar improved as the season went on. At the time we played them, they were probably the 7th or 8th best Southland team we played last year, and would not have surprised me had they not won another game. Instead, they ripped off six of seven and earned a playoff bid. One can argue it but they were a worthy team at the end of the year. Regardless of computer rankings, the Southland is a better league than it gets credit for, especially now that Nicholls, Lamar and UIW have upped their game; and ACU will be a rising force in short order, now that they're out of the transition phase.

ACU won six games last year and will field a better team this year.

[Catatonic]

Agreed .. and normally don't take issue with Hero ... but when some teams annually target bottom 20 or bottom 10 FBS teams, and then act like this strengthens their schedule, someone has to call BS. Plus the issue for Southland getting 3 bids last year, same as MVFC, and sent two 6-4 teams while our 6-4 stayed home ... again, someone has to call BS.

Made no sense whatsoever. If you get walked on and don't say something, it will happen again. Back to this thread .. and my point is related ... There is no way our SOS isn't in top 36 ... I would argue top 15 and every objective computer system wagree with me. We play MVFC and a good G5 team (NIU, ranked in 70's). How there are 7 Southland teams with SOS ahead of us is just stupid.

It doesn't truly matter what Hero thinks .. but it does create a BS narrative and then the FCS selection committee goes into the room to make their selections. So just calling out the BS as I see it ... IMO.

I can’t comment on why ACU’s SOS is above yours. I can say that we play a challenging schedule—fBS North Texas, one of the preseason favorites to win CUSA, Mississippi State and all three SLC playoff teams on the road.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I can’t comment on why ACU’s SOS is above yours. I can say that we play a challenging schedule—fBS North Texas, one of the preseason favorites to win CUSA, Mississippi State and all three SLC playoff teams on the road.
I do see Southland emerging with better quality depth .. but it is the middling teams that are emerging, not the top of conference. And ACU SOS being top 30 (i.e. #25) is not one I would question .. North Texas is comparable with our NIU game, and you still have a 2nd FBS game in top 25 Miss St. But ACU doesn't have to play the MVFC schedule. It's as if Hero gave zero weight to our MVFC conf schedule, which regularly includes 5 teams in top 15 or 20 most of the season .. that is until war of attrition by end of season forces very good MVFC teams to have 4 losses. I've already documented advantages in Colonial and Big Sky .. they don't play all their own top teams because they have 12 and 14 teams in their conference. So 3 losses in Colonial would be 4 losses if they had to play everyone .. which gets them more bids unjustly.

Which further brings me back to issue of our playoff record including and excluding NDSU ... sicne 2011, we are the top performing conference in playoffs even excluding NDSU. The Massey Composite has 40 polls ... MVFC has been #1 every year since 2011 .... this is all 100% fact and not a coincidence. Yet we get just 3 teams last year and our 6-4 team stays home, while 3 others get at large bids .. and Colonial gets 6 teams (several with 3 losses for reason cited above, one also 6-4) and craps the bed in playoff with 4 teams losing 1st game.

It's playoffs ... goal should be to reward the best teams ... true SOS matters. Massey Composite is pretty compelling source for info like this .. 40 polls, some subjective, some objective ... certainly an objective source when it comes to debating this stuff. I wish the selection committee would consider using it when it comes to judging "true SOS'.

[dgtw]

You could argue, but I think you'd lose that argument. That's not to say UTCs schedule isn't tough, anywho who thinks otherwise is a moron, but that UND schedule... Sweet jesus.

Also, for the Georgia State thing, they suck and any respectable FCS team should beat them.

Kennesaw screwed the pooch in that game. Big time.

You surprised we didn’t even make the “others” list? EIU was #6 and we have eight common opponents.


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[PaladinFan]

No doubt Lamar improved as the season went on. At the time we played them, they were probably the 7th or 8th best Southland team we played last year, and would not have surprised me had they not won another game. Instead, they ripped off six of seven and earned a playoff bid. One can argue it but they were a worthy team at the end of the year. Regardless of computer rankings, the Southland is a better league than it gets credit for, especially now that Nicholls, Lamar and UIW have upped their game; and ACU will be a rising force in short order, now that they're out of the transition phase.

I think it is difficult sometimes to evaluate Southland teams because of their schedule - 9 conference games and only 2 OOC games.

Of the league's 11 teams, only 4 scheduled an OOC game against an FCS school (UCA, McNeese, SHSU, Northwestern). Two of those FCS games were against Prairie View and Grambling.

[Catatonic]

I do see Southland emerging with better quality depth .. but it is the middling teams that are emerging, not the top of conference. '.

I agree, mostly. I have been working on a preliminary AGS preseason poll. I am looking at 3 MVFC schools in my top 10–NDSU, SDSU and ISU. I can’t make a case for any SLC team in the top 10 at this point. I’m looking at 7-8 SLC teams in the 11-25 group though ...they won’t all wind up on my list, but there are that many teams bunched together that are contenders for SLC honors.

So I’ll concede The best MVFC teams are on a higher plane than the best SLC teams. I’ll add that Houston Baptist is not as good as the MVFC’s last place team.

I’m less certain the MVFC is that much stronger than the SLC in the middle though, particularly following Lamar’s showing vs UNI. (A single data point, I know, but a significant one since it’s the only recent head-to-head competition between the MVFC and the SLC). Our third place team lost to your third place team, but anyone who watched the game knows those two teams were evenly matched.

[JSUSoutherner]

You surprised we didn’t even make the “others” list? EIU was #6 and we have eight common opponents.


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I didn't even notice EIU, tbh. I'm actually more surprise that they are that highly ranked more so than surprised about us being left off.

Our schedule is a good schedule, but UTC and UNA haven't been themselves. The second best team on our schedule based off of last year is SEMO. So if you use that as a metric our schedule really isn't that great on paper.

But man, I'm still looking forward to those UTC and UNA games.

[FUBeAR]

I think it is difficult sometimes to evaluate Southland teams because of their schedule - 9 conference games and only 2 OOC games.

Of the league's 11 teams, only 4 scheduled an OOC game against an FCS school (UCA, McNeese, SHSU, Northwestern). Two of those FCS games were against Prairie View and Grambling....and with 3 Playoff Teams, the only Southland win was over a non-scholarship Team...so...??????

[DFW HOYA]

...and with 3 Playoff Teams, the only Southland win was over a non-scholarship Team...so...??????

Scholarships don't always define "better". A starter at a Harvard or Yale turned down a number of scholarship offers elsewhere.

That having been said, it's not popular to be a nonscholarship program anymore. There were nearly 30 in the East a generation ago. Excepting the Ivies, there are now only two remaining.

[clenz]

I am curious what clenz meant .. Lamar played them tough .. but had 2 missed FGs and 3 fumbles .. game could have gone either way if not for these drive ending plays.
I'm guessing neither of you watched the game. I don't care what the score was, what the stats read, etc.

Yes, it was a FG game, but the game didn't play that way.

Something like something like half of Lamar's yards came on their first two drives - as did 100% of their points.

Also - single data points used to make an argument based

That same UNI team lead NDSU for 75% of a football game...then due to reasons I won't go into on this forum the team quit....a few of the same issues that popped up early in the season showed up and then showed up late in the season again
That same UNI team beat #2 SDSU by 3 scores
That same UNI team beat a top 25 ranked USD team by 3 scores
That same UNI beat a top 20 ranked ISUr team by 2 scores
That same UNI team beat a top 25 Indiana State team 33-0 in Terra Haute.


Turns out, when you start adding multiple reference points a picture starts to become clear.


Oh...and if you'll recall UNI was without it's OC that entire week as his father had passed away and UNI was left with position scrambling late to try to put a game plan together.

Again....Turns out, when you start adding multiple reference points a picture starts to become clear.

[walliver]

Scholarships don't always define "better". A starter at a Harvard or Yale turned down a number of scholarship offers elsewhere.

That having been said, it's not popular to be a nonscholarship program anymore. There were nearly 30 in the East a generation ago. Excepting the Ivies, there are now only two remaining.

The starter at Harvard is probably on scholarship, they just call it something else.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I'm guessing neither of you watched the game. I don't care what the score was, what the stats read, etc.

Yes, it was a FG game, but the game didn't play that way.

Something like something like half of Lamar's yards came on their first two drives - as did 100% of their points.

Also - single data points used to make an argument based

That same UNI team lead NDSU for 75% of a football game...then due to reasons I won't go into on this forum the team quit....a few of the same issues that popped up early in the season showed up and then showed up late in the season again
That same UNI team beat #2 SDSU by 3 scores
That same UNI team beat a top 25 ranked USD team by 3 scores
That same UNI beat a top 20 ranked ISUr team by 2 scores
That same UNI team beat a top 25 Indiana State team 33-0 in Terra Haute.


Turns out, when you start adding multiple reference points a picture starts to become clear.


Oh...and if you'll recall UNI was without it's OC that entire week as his father had passed away and UNI was left with position scrambling late to try to put a game plan together.

Again....Turns out, when you start adding multiple reference points a picture starts to become clear.

no doubt, UNI was a tough team in 2018 .. a week later played a very tough 6 seed (UC Davis) on road, within a TD. But Lamar had 3 other drives into your red zone in 2nd half, with 2 ending in turnovers, and 1 in missed FG. .. 3 fumbles overall and 2 missed FGs, picks were even at 1 each. So it seemed like an even game statistically .. but no, I didn't watch it.

Only question in my mind, is whether Lamar was truly "playoff worthy" by end of season .. IMO, their 6-4 resume fell short, but they were on a nice win streak. but UNI deservedly made round of 16, and I think you were better than at least half the other round of 16 losers .. which puts UNI in top 12, or better IMO.

[clenz]

One of the RZ possessions was off the int and netted them negative 4 yards.

UNI forced the fumbles with am adjustment they made late in the game. They noticed Lamar getting carless due to fatigue and went I to strip mode. UNI is consistently among the top in the valley for forced fumbles. It's what the DC has preached for years.

Single data points mean nothing.

That game - and UC Davis the next week were all about UNIs offense missing the OC. Look at production and scores from all season the comp to the playoffs. Pretty stark contrast once the OC left campus.

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[Catatonic]

One of the RZ possessions was off the int and netted them negative 4 yards.

UNI forced the fumbles with am adjustment they made late in the game. They noticed Lamar getting carless due to fatigue and went I to strip mode. UNI is consistently among the top in the valley for forced fumbles. It's what the DC has preached for years.

Single data points mean nothing.

That game - and UC Davis the next week were all about UNIs offense missing the OC. Look at production and scores from all season the comp to the playoffs. Pretty stark contrast once the OC left campus.

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uNI was missing a staring center. Lamar played its second string QB. That’s why depth matters. Slice it any way you’d like, Lamar was a good kicker short of knocking you off at your house. That’s not to say that UNI wasn’t a good team. It speaks more to the issue of the supposed weakness of the Southland conference last year.

[clenz]

I mean we can play the injury game.

UNI was without it's top WR, down 2 or 3 OL actually, missing a starting DB. Missing it's #2 TE.

I wasnt counting injuries.

Lamar was a broken play for a TD away from potentially not scoring at all on the game. If that second play of the game doesn't go for that TD the UNI defense holds and Lamar punts. The initial 1-2 punch doesn't happen.

But it did

Single data points - especially in this case mean little to me.

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[clenz]

UNI was a blocked FG as time expired from beating a top 10 Iowa team that went to the Orange bowl in 09

That doesn't mean UNI was as good as Iowa. Or the Valley was as good as the B10.

But using your logic of single data points would say both of those statements are true.

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[Catatonic]

UNI was a blocked FG as time expired from beating a top 10 Iowa team that went to the Orange bowl in 09

That doesn't mean UNI was as good as Iowa. Or the Valley was as good as the B10.

But using your logic of single data points would say both of those statements are true.

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While I wouldn’t argue that your game with Iowa showed the Valley is as good as the BIG, it might be a good indicator that that Valley teams should not be written off as cupcakes, as P5 schools are prone to do. Similarly, while I haven’t and wouldn’t argue that the SLC is as good as the Valley, I would argue that Southland teams should not be written off as cupcakes. The gap isn’t as great as some imagine.

[clenz]

While I wouldn’t argue that your game with Iowa showed the Valley is as good as the BIG, it might be a good indicator that that Valley teams should not be written off as cupcakes, as P5 schools are prone to do. Similarly, while I haven’t and wouldn’t argue that the SLC is as good as the Valley, I would argue that Southland teams should not be written off as cupcakes. The gap isn’t as great as some imagine.

Sure...the gap isn't that great

As long as that Valley team is missing is unexpectedly missing it's OC, a handful of it's top players, and gives up a 75 yard TD on the second play of the game....

That game as a single data point doesn't show anything. What does show something is UNI being within a TD of Iowa multiple times, being within a score of Wisconsin (with the ball and less than 2 minutes on the clock inside the 30 in the 4th), NDSU beating Iowa, UNI beating Iowa State consistently, NDSU beating ISU, KSU and Kansas. SDSU being right there with the B12 teams and even beating them. Hell, even USD (who is, best case scenario a middle of the pack MVFC team) beating B10 teams.

Now, when the SLC is consistently beating the MVC, or playing to within one score for a like a decade...I'll listen to that line of thought

Or...when the SLC puts both teams in the FCS title game. Or has multiple different teams play in the title game over the course of like 3 years. Or has half of the semi final field.

Not going 0-er the playoffs outside of non-scholarship teams. Or having someone other than SHSU actually accomplish something.

CAA fans want to call the MVFC a one team league - which isn't the case. The SLC, OTOH.

[clenz]

I won't even look at even massey numbers...compare a team like SIU/Missouri State/Indiana State trying to get from "close" to "over the hump" and to do so they have to go through this 8 game schedule

NDSU - best team in the country over the last decade...maybe all time
SDSU - if it wasn't for NDSU they'd have a couple MVFC titles and maybe 1 or 2 FCS titles
UNI - see SDSU....except UNI beats SDSU and actually has a higher average finish in the Valley
WIU - consistently top 20 team
ISUR - last 3 seasons have been poor but still a top 25 caliber team as far as talent goes...played in a title game and were 50 seconds from beating NDSU in said title game
YSU - played in a title game just a couple years ago
then insert 2 other MVFC teams

Compare that to a SLC team going against

-Houston Baptist - who is 2-20 the last years and 13-49 all time...including sub D1 games
-Incarnate Word - who is Houston Baptist, just a few years older as a program
-Northwestern State who has been over .500 3 times since the turn of the century
-ACU a new D1 team that since going D1 has been a .300 win % team
-SELA who outside of 2013 is borderline dumpster fire
-Nicholls State - who the last 2 years has been okay...we'll see how it continues but is like 3 years removed from being 0-12
- Central Arkansas - who had good records in 16-17 but was 6-5 last year and a .500 caliber team before that.
- McNeese - who is the ultimate let down year after year
- SFA who might actually be a dumpster fire right now
- SHSU - the one good team

I can tell you Missouri does a hell of a lot better than bottom 2 and praying for 2 conference wins every year playing that schedule compared to the MVFC schedule.

[Outsider1]

Sure...the gap isn't that great

As long as that Valley team is missing is unexpectedly missing it's OC, a handful of it's top players, and gives up a 75 yard TD on the second play of the game....


https://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=30781&stc=1

[Catatonic]

Sure...the gap isn't that great

As long as that Valley team is missing is unexpectedly missing it's OC, a handful of it's top players, and gives up a 75 yard TD on the second play of the game....

That game as a single data point doesn't show anything. What does show something is UNI being within a TD of Iowa multiple times, being within a score of Wisconsin (with the ball and less than 2 minutes on the clock inside the 30 in the 4th), NDSU beating Iowa, UNI beating Iowa State consistently, NDSU beating ISU, KSU and Kansas. SDSU being right there with the B12 teams and even beating them. Hell, even USD (who is, best case scenario a middle of the pack MVFC team) beating B10 teams.

Now, when the SLC is consistently beating the MVC, or playing to within one score for a like a decade...I'll listen to that line of thought

Or...when the SLC puts both teams in the FCS title game. Or has multiple different teams play in the title game over the course of like 3 years. Or has half of the semi final field.

Not going 0-er the playoffs outside of non-scholarship teams. Or having someone other than SHSU actually accomplish something.

CAA fans want to call the MVFC a one team league - which isn't the case. The SLC, OTOH.

LoL at your argument that the loss of your center was somehow more of a handicap than Lamar playing with a back up QB. I get it though. Your school pride was wounded.

No argument over where the SLC has been the past few years. News flash ....The SLC of 2015 was not the same as the SLC of 2018 or 19.

Also no argument that the MVFC is better at the top Than the SLC, even in 2019. I’m not sure that holds true any longer beyond the top two or three teams though. UNI should no be confused with th elite teams of the MVFC last year or from what I can tell this year.

[clenz]

LoL at your argument that the loss of your center was somehow more of a handicap than Lamar playing with a back up QB. I get it though. Your school pride was wounded.

No argument over where the SLC has been the past few years. News flash ....The SLC of 2015 was not the same as the SLC of 2018 or 19.

Also no argument that the MVFC is better at the top Than the SLC, even in 2019. I’m not sure that holds true any longer beyond the top two or three teams though. UNI should no be confused with th elite teams of the MVFC last year or from what I can tell this year.Yeah. That back up QB that played in 9 games. Clearly just thrust into a situation he couldn't handle.

That UNI team that beat SDSU by 3 scores
That UNI team that beat USD by 3 scores
That UNI team that beat ISUR by multiple scores
That UNI team that shut out top 25 ISUb 33-0 at their place. That same ISUb team that took SDSU to double OT


What a **** program it has become.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

[clenz]

Wait. I just went an looked

The QB that played against UNI played in more games than the other QB

Threw 4 times as many passes as the other QB.

Was the teams leading rusher


Yeah. What a major disadvantage Lamar had...


****ing moron.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

[Catatonic]

Wait. I just went an looked

The QB that played against UNI played in more games than the other QB

Threw 4 times as many passes as the other QB.

Was the teams leading rusher


Yeah. What a major disadvantage Lamar had...


****ing moron.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

He stepped up after the starter was injured. QUALITY depth.

[clenz]

He stepped up after the starter was injured. QUALITY depth.The other QB played in 9 games


Sounds like he wasn't all that hurt for most of the season



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[Catatonic]

The other QB played in 9 games


Sounds like he wasn't all that hurt for most of the season



Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

I’m man enough to admit I was wrong. I thought The starter was out for the season and The back up Hoy played against UNI. I just checked the Lamar stats and you are right. They had their first team QB back off injury.

[Reign of Terrier]

What's great about the FCS is that FCS fans would like to think we have as much certainty about the quality of the teams/conferences as we do in the FBS. We don't. Key differences:



Most conferences don't play tough OOC schedules. They just don't. The teams that do are already good teams or do it for practical financial reasons (Big Sky teams fly everywhere, as do many MVFC teams) so there's motive to schedule tough if you're already a tough program or in those two programs.
Literally 2/3 of the programs in the subdivision do not have that motive. The Patriot, Pioneer, and NEC each stole some wins in the last couple years, but those were kind of shocking, with the exception of the Patriot, which occasionally fields a really strong team. If you take out Jacksonville State, the OVC is right there, with like 1 playoff win against non-OVC, non-pioneer teams in the last 25 years or so. The Big South is also historically kind of there, but they usually have one good team that can win a playoff game or two, but the rest of the league is terrible, probably on par with the pioneer/NEC.
So, given #2, most of the subdivision just doesn't schedule tough or is stuck with their schedule. This means many of them will schedule little sisters of the poor schools, weakening their schedule further. Even worse, FCS teams usually play one money game and usually only 11 games in the season.
FBS has bowl games, which are good at comparing second and mid-tier teams.


So, compared to FBS teams, the average FCS team has a smaller sample size of games, with higher variability that isn't always predictive. And dragging computers into it is actually usually bad because computers have a bad habit of gravitating toward ranking teams higher based on degrees of separation from good teams. A good example of this is Massey ratings last year ranking Missouri in the top 15 (I want to say they were 10) in the second half of the season in spite of having like 4 losses and definitely-not-being-that-good.

But wait! You may say. What about the playoffs?

The thing with single elimination tournaments--in any sport--is that they're terrible at giving you rank order outside of the first place team. There have been plenty of years where the best teams met in the semifinals or quarterfinals due to inefficient seeding or regionalization. Sometimes we luck out: I think EWU was the second best team in the subdivision last year. But was Maine better than Kennesaw State because they got to the semifinals? I don't think the advancement in and of itself is a conclusive answer.

But for some people, it's evidence and a framing technique. Evidence of something is better than evidence of nothing, even if it's bad evidence of that something.

So when we talk about SoS, no matter which conference is at the top (now it's the MVFC/CAA, 10 years ago it was the Socon/CAA), the fans of that conference will chest beat because the top teams in their conference advance to a certain point (don't ask us how the fifth and sixth place teams play though). But we really don't know that much about the second tier, non-playoff teams compare to each other, which is probably the most important question when figuring out how tough SoS is. We just don't have a dataset for that because those teams, which are probably 1/2 of the subdivision by definition, don't play much of an OOC, postseason or otherwise. FBS does with bowl games.

So, don't put too much stock in these discussions. Just enjoy the season. It's way too easy to overthink FCS football when we know so little compared to FBS.

Edit: That's not to say we don't have any vague idea of the conference hierarchy is (1)MVFC 2)CAA 3)Big Sky 4) Socon + (SHSU/KSU/JSU) (huge gap) 6)rest of Southland 7-11)OVC/Big South/Patriot/Pioneer/NEC)

But it's hard to say what the second tier teams are compared to each other.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I won't even look at even massey numbers...compare a team like SIU/Missouri State/Indiana State trying to get from "close" to "over the hump" and to do so they have to go through this 8 game schedule

NDSU - best team in the country over the last decade...maybe all time
SDSU - if it wasn't for NDSU they'd have a couple MVFC titles and maybe 1 or 2 FCS titles
UNI - see SDSU....except UNI beats SDSU and actually has a higher average finish in the Valley
WIU - consistently top 20 team
ISUR - last 3 seasons have been poor but still a top 25 caliber team as far as talent goes...played in a title game and were 50 seconds from beating NDSU in said title game
YSU - played in a title game just a couple years ago
then insert 2 other MVFC teams

Compare that to a SLC team going against

-Houston Baptist - who is 2-20 the last years and 13-49 all time...including sub D1 games
-Incarnate Word - who is Houston Baptist, just a few years older as a program
-Northwestern State who has been over .500 3 times since the turn of the century
-ACU a new D1 team that since going D1 has been a .300 win % team
-SELA who outside of 2013 is borderline dumpster fire
-Nicholls State - who the last 2 years has been okay...we'll see how it continues but is like 3 years removed from being 0-12
- Central Arkansas - who had good records in 16-17 but was 6-5 last year and a .500 caliber team before that.
- McNeese - who is the ultimate let down year after year
- SFA who might actually be a dumpster fire right now
- SHSU - the one good team

I can tell you Missouri does a hell of a lot better than bottom 2 and praying for 2 conference wins every year playing that schedule compared to the MVFC schedule.
This !

Aka... more data points.

There is reason the Massey Composite of 40 polls has MVFC as #1 conference every year since 2011 .. our at large bids and seeds should better reflect this.

[PaladinFan]

What's great about the FCS is that FCS fans would like to think we have as much certainty about the quality of the teams/conferences as we do in the FBS. We don't. Key differences:



Most conferences don't play tough OOC schedules. They just don't. The teams that do are already good teams or do it for practical financial reasons (Big Sky teams fly everywhere, as do many MVFC teams) so there's motive to schedule tough if you're already a tough program or in those two programs.
Literally 2/3 of the programs in the subdivision do not have that motive. The Patriot, Pioneer, and NEC each stole some wins in the last couple years, but those were kind of shocking, with the exception of the Patriot, which occasionally fields a really strong team. If you take out Jacksonville State, the OVC is right there, with like 1 playoff win against non-OVC, non-pioneer teams in the last 25 years or so. The Big South is also historically kind of there, but they usually have one good team that can win a playoff game or two, but the rest of the league is terrible, probably on par with the pioneer/NEC.
So, given #2, most of the subdivision just doesn't schedule tough or is stuck with their schedule. This means many of them will schedule little sisters of the poor schools, weakening their schedule further. Even worse, FCS teams usually play one money game and usually only 11 games in the season.
FBS has bowl games, which are good at comparing second and mid-tier teams.


So, compared to FBS teams, the average FCS team has a smaller sample size of games, with higher variability that isn't always predictive. And dragging computers into it is actually usually bad because computers have a bad habit of gravitating toward ranking teams higher based on degrees of separation from good teams. A good example of this is Massey ratings last year ranking Missouri in the top 15 (I want to say they were 10) in the second half of the season in spite of having like 4 losses and definitely-not-being-that-good.

But wait! You may say. What about the playoffs?

The thing with single elimination tournaments--in any sport--is that they're terrible at giving you rank order outside of the first place team. There have been plenty of years where the best teams met in the semifinals or quarterfinals due to inefficient seeding or regionalization. Sometimes we luck out: I think EWU was the second best team in the subdivision last year. But was Maine better than Kennesaw State because they got to the semifinals? I don't think the advancement in and of itself is a conclusive answer.

But for some people, it's evidence and a framing technique. Evidence of something is better than evidence of nothing, even if it's bad evidence of that something.

So when we talk about SoS, no matter which conference is at the top (now it's the MVFC/CAA, 10 years ago it was the Socon/CAA), the fans of that conference will chest beat because the top teams in their conference advance to a certain point (don't ask us how the fifth and sixth place teams play though). But we really don't know that much about the second tier, non-playoff teams compare to each other, which is probably the most important question when figuring out how tough SoS is. We just don't have a dataset for that because those teams, which are probably 1/2 of the subdivision by definition, don't play much of an OOC, postseason or otherwise. FBS does with bowl games.

So, don't put too much stock in these discussions. Just enjoy the season. It's way too easy to overthink FCS football when we know so little compared to FBS.

Edit: That's not to say we don't have any vague idea of the conference hierarchy is (1)MVFC 2)CAA 3)Big Sky 4) Socon + (SHSU/KSU/JSU) (huge gap) 6)rest of Southland 7-11)OVC/Big South/Patriot/Pioneer/NEC)

But it's hard to say what the second tier teams are compared to each other.

I'm with you on this. I think we lump too much of our thinking around proximity to the truly good teams and place too much emphasis on the playoffs, which are often a crap shoot and generally require cross-country travel on a weeks' notice (unlike bowl games, which usually have weeks of lag time).

[PaladinFan]

This !

Aka... more data points.

There is reason the Massey Composite of 40 polls has MVFC as #1 conference every year since 2011 .. our at large bids and seeds should better reflect this.

This is again where I suggest going back to 16 teams and divesting the Big South, Pioneer, and NEC of their autobids.

It drives me bananas that we have debates over whether a conference's 5th best team deserves a post season bid.

[Redbird 4th & short]

What's great about the FCS is that FCS fans would like to think we have as much certainty about the quality of the teams/conferences as we do in the FBS. We don't. Key differences:



Most conferences don't play tough OOC schedules. They just don't. The teams that do are already good teams or do it for practical financial reasons (Big Sky teams fly everywhere, as do many MVFC teams) so there's motive to schedule tough if you're already a tough program or in those two programs.
Literally 2/3 of the programs in the subdivision do not have that motive. The Patriot, Pioneer, and NEC each stole some wins in the last couple years, but those were kind of shocking, with the exception of the Patriot, which occasionally fields a really strong team. If you take out Jacksonville State, the OVC is right there, with like 1 playoff win against non-OVC, non-pioneer teams in the last 25 years or so. The Big South is also historically kind of there, but they usually have one good team that can win a playoff game or two, but the rest of the league is terrible, probably on par with the pioneer/NEC.
So, given #2, most of the subdivision just doesn't schedule tough or is stuck with their schedule. This means many of them will schedule little sisters of the poor schools, weakening their schedule further. Even worse, FCS teams usually play one money game and usually only 11 games in the season.
FBS has bowl games, which are good at comparing second and mid-tier teams.


So, compared to FBS teams, the average FCS team has a smaller sample size of games, with higher variability that isn't always predictive. And dragging computers into it is actually usually bad because computers have a bad habit of gravitating toward ranking teams higher based on degrees of separation from good teams. A good example of this is Massey ratings last year ranking Missouri in the top 15 (I want to say they were 10) in the second half of the season in spite of having like 4 losses and definitely-not-being-that-good.

But wait! You may say. What about the playoffs?

The thing with single elimination tournaments--in any sport--is that they're terrible at giving you rank order outside of the first place team. There have been plenty of years where the best teams met in the semifinals or quarterfinals due to inefficient seeding or regionalization. Sometimes we luck out: I think EWU was the second best team in the subdivision last year. But was Maine better than Kennesaw State because they got to the semifinals? I don't think the advancement in and of itself is a conclusive answer.

But for some people, it's evidence and a framing technique. Evidence of something is better than evidence of nothing, even if it's bad evidence of that something.

So when we talk about SoS, no matter which conference is at the top (now it's the MVFC/CAA, 10 years ago it was the Socon/CAA), the fans of that conference will chest beat because the top teams in their conference advance to a certain point (don't ask us how the fifth and sixth place teams play though). But we really don't know that much about the second tier, non-playoff teams compare to each other, which is probably the most important question when figuring out how tough SoS is. We just don't have a dataset for that because those teams, which are probably 1/2 of the subdivision by definition, don't play much of an OOC, postseason or otherwise. FBS does with bowl games.

So, don't put too much stock in these discussions. Just enjoy the season. It's way too easy to overthink FCS football when we know so little compared to FBS.

Edit: That's not to say we don't have any vague idea of the conference hierarchy is (1)MVFC 2)CAA 3)Big Sky 4) Socon + (SHSU/KSU/JSU) (huge gap) 6)rest of Southland 7-11)OVC/Big South/Patriot/Pioneer/NEC)

But it's hard to say what the second tier teams are compared to each other.

This is the flaw in your thinking on 2 diferent levels .. and this is why I have long advocated use of a computer based SOS system.

1. # of conf teams ... Maine plays in conference of 12 teams .. so they do not play 4 of those 12 teams each year. In 2018 and 2019, 3 of those 4 teams they didn't have to play were one of the top 6 playoff teams. So Maine only had to play 2 of the other top 5 teams in CAA. Big Sky has 14 teams, so there are 6 teams each team doesnt play. MVFC has just 10 teams ... only 1 team that each team doesn't play.

2. how strong is lower half of Colonial vs Big Sky vs Southland vs Southern vs MVFC. MVFC usually fields 7-8 teams that float in and out of top 25 in any given year .. so usually just 2 maybe 3 weaker teams in lower "half" of conference.

This is why computers annually have nearly all of the 10 MVFC teams in top 15 or 20 in SOS ranking. Combined with decent FBS games, this is why 4 losses in MVFC is as good or better than 3 losses in any other conference.

I will acknowledge Colonial was deeper in 2018, but they were no better at the top as evidenced by their playoff record. The reason ? All those 3 loss CAA teams didn't have to play all their own top teams like we did in MVFC. But Colonial had the FCS slection committee fooled and got an unprecedented 6 teams. Southland also had committee fooled ... two 6-4 teams from 6th best conference according to Massey Composite of 40 polls ... this just doesn't pass smell test.

If anyone has proven they deserve a 6-4 team in playoffs based on current and recent history, it is MVFC by a mile .. then Colonial (deeper conf), then Big Sky (tougher OOC), then maybe Southland or Southern.

Again, I hope the selection committee has learned a lesson .. but I won't hold my breath.

Strenght of schedule in and out of conference .. do the simple math on conferences like Big Sky and Colonial not playing all the top teams .. it's not hard to do.

[Reign of Terrier]

This is the flaw in your thinking on 2 diferent levels .. and this is why I have long advocated use of a computer based SOS system.

1. # of conf teams ... Maine plays in conference of 12 teams .. so they do not play 4 of those 12 teams each year. In 2018 and 2019, 3 of those 4 teams they didn't have to play were one of the top 6 playoff teams. So Maine only had to play 2 of the other top 5 teams in CAA. Big Sky has 14 teams, so there are 6 teams each team doesnt play. MVFC has just 10 teams ... only 1 team that each team doesn't play.

2. how strong is lower half of Colonial vs Big Sky vs Southland vs Southern vs MVFC. MVFC usually fields 7-8 teams that float in and out of top 25 in any given year .. so usually just 2 maybe 3 weaker teams in lower "half" of conference.

This is why computers annually have nearly all of the 10 MVFC teams in top 15 or 20 in SOS ranking. Combined with decent FBS games, this is why 4 losses in MVFC is as good or better than 3 losses in any other conference.

I will acknowledge Colonial was deeper in 2018, but they were no better at the top as evidenced by their playoff record. The reason ? All those 3 loss CAA teams didn't have to play all their own top teams like we did in MVFC. But Colonial had the FCS slection committee fooled and got an unprecedented 6 teams. Southland also had committee fooled ... two 6-4 teams from 6th best conference according to Massey Composite of 40 polls ... this just doesn't pass smell test.

If anyone has proven they deserve a 6-4 team in playoffs based on current and recent history, it is MVFC by a mile .. then Colonial (deeper conf), then Big Sky (tougher OOC), then maybe Southland or Southern.

Again, I hope the selection committee has learned a lesson .. but I won't hold my breath.

Strenght of schedule in and out of conference .. do the simple math on conferences like Big Sky and Colonial not playing all the top teams .. it's not hard to do.

I had a longer post that got lost because I posted it *right* as AGS had some maintenance done, so I'll keep this brief.

Computer rankings require a substantial sample size to be helpful. The MVFC benefits from being close to NDSU, much like the SEC benefits from being close to Alabama, in terms of times they play per year (Missouri was ranked in the top 15 late into last year). So no, I don't think computer rankings are helpful and should not be used because there's really only 1-2 OOC games played per season and there's no way you can extrapolate too much from those data points.

what's more: It is absolutely *wild* that your argument that OOC should be use predicates on us agreeing that Maine didn't deserve a playoff spot this year. Wild. They got to the semifinals and looked pretty impressive in the games they played. I'll admit on paper that that was not predicted by the experts, but still. Their success, as well as the moderate success over the last few years of SHSU and Kennesaw State show that SOS isn't the be-all-end-all.

but of course the fan of the MVFC team who hasn't been to the playoffs in a few years, let alone won a playoff game, wants us to gift him a participation trophy because he can't find a way to win 7 games, or whatever.

[CenMEBlackBearFan]

This is the flaw in your thinking on 2 diferent levels .. and this is why I have long advocated use of a computer based SOS system.

1. # of conf teams ... Maine plays in conference of 12 teams .. so they do not play 4 of those 12 teams each year. In 2018 and 2019, 3 of those 4 teams they didn't have to play were one of the top 6 playoff teams. So Maine only had to play 2 of the other top 5 teams in CAA. Big Sky has 14 teams, so there are 6 teams each team doesnt play. MVFC has just 10 teams ... only 1 team that each team doesn't play.

2. how strong is lower half of Colonial vs Big Sky vs Southland vs Southern vs MVFC. MVFC usually fields 7-8 teams that float in and out of top 25 in any given year .. so usually just 2 maybe 3 weaker teams in lower "half" of conference.

This is why computers annually have nearly all of the 10 MVFC teams in top 15 or 20 in SOS ranking. Combined with decent FBS games, this is why 4 losses in MVFC is as good or better than 3 losses in any other conference.

I will acknowledge Colonial was deeper in 2018, but they were no better at the top as evidenced by their playoff record. The reason ? All those 3 loss CAA teams didn't have to play all their own top teams like we did in MVFC. But Colonial had the FCS slection committee fooled and got an unprecedented 6 teams. Southland also had committee fooled ... two 6-4 teams from 6th best conference according to Massey Composite of 40 polls ... this just doesn't pass smell test.

If anyone has proven they deserve a 6-4 team in playoffs based on current and recent history, it is MVFC by a mile .. then Colonial (deeper conf), then Big Sky (tougher OOC), then maybe Southland or Southern.

Again, I hope the selection committee has learned a lesson .. but I won't hold my breath.

Strenght of schedule in and out of conference .. do the simple math on conferences like Big Sky and Colonial not playing all the top teams .. it's not hard to do.

Maine can't help who it plays in the conference as that is determined by the league and changes every other year. Maine plays two FBS teams that were both bowl teams last year and Colgate who was a quarterfinal team and thus their schedule was rated #23 toughest. Of course all of this is based on last years performance and we really don't have a clue how things will pan out this year. Knowing Maine made it to the semifinals I would say it was a safe bet that the selection committee was spot on with them.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I had a longer post that got lost because I posted it *right* as AGS had some maintenance done, so I'll keep this brief.

Computer rankings require a substantial sample size to be helpful. The MVFC benefits from being close to NDSU, much like the SEC benefits from being close to Alabama, in terms of times they play per year (Missouri was ranked in the top 15 late into last year). So no, I don't think computer rankings are helpful and should not be used because there's really only 1-2 OOC games played per season and there's no way you can extrapolate too much from those data points.

what's more: It is absolutely *wild* that your argument that OOC should be use predicates on us agreeing that Maine didn't deserve a playoff spot this year. Wild. They got to the semifinals and looked pretty impressive in the games they played. I'll admit on paper that that was not predicted by the experts, but still. Their success, as well as the moderate success over the last few years of SHSU and Kennesaw State show that SOS isn't the be-all-end-all.

but of course the fan of the MVFC team who hasn't been to the playoffs in a few years, let alone won a playoff game, wants us to gift him a participation trophy because he can't find a way to win 7 games, or whatever.
I never said Maine didn't deserve a playoff bid. I singled them out because they were the most significant beneficiary of the Colonial scheduling. All teams potentially benefit, depending on which 4 teams they don't have to play. All 6 CAA playoff teams combined to NOT play 9 games amongst just those 6 teams. Meaning, taken to the extreme, if they played all 9 of those times, those 6 CAA playoff teams would have had 9 more losses shared between them. So on average, all those 3 loss teams would have had 4 or 5 losses ... some better some worse, but on average 1.5 more losses per team.

So if youre the committee .. instead of considering a bunch of 3 loss Colonial teams, you would be looking at a bunch of 4 and 5 losses teams. Clearly, they would not have gotten 6 teams in playoffs .. which in hindsight, sure seems to have been more appropriate.

Note, this was less the case in Big Sky for their 4 teams that made playoffs .. I think they each missed at most 1 competitive game each ... that would not have impacted the top 3 Big Sky teams (making playoffs last year .. 1 ore loss each, and they still deserved those 3 bid for sure. But same possibility exists even moreso in Big Sky withg 14 teams ... just not nearly as much as CAA with their top teams in 2018. Next year .. it might be bigger issue/advantage for Big Sky .. we'll see.

Either way, this should factor into selection committee consideration depending on how chips fall each year. Maine will benefit similarly in 2019, assuming the top 6 are all in contention again.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Maine can't help who it plays in the conference as that is determined by the league and changes every other year. Maine plays two FBS teams that were both bowl teams last year and Colgate who was a quarterfinal team and thus their schedule was rated #23 toughest. Of course all of this is based on last years performance and we really don't have a clue how things will pan out this year. Knowing Maine made it to the semifinals I would say it was a safe bet that the selection committee was spot on with them.
Maine absolutely stepped up in playoffs. But they got a 7 seed, which gave them a bye and home field in 1st round. If they had 1 more loss of those 3 games not played, they would have had a playin game, possibly on the road. Then if they won that, would have had to travel again in round of 16 against tougher team.

Kudos to Maine for their playoff performance, but they still benefitted from not playing 3 of 5 top CAA teams. But yes, they proved themselves come playoff time.

Put differently, if ISUr didnt have to play 3 top MVFC teams (NDSU, SDSU, and sometimes UNI) every year ... we would be 8-3 or better, and a top 8 seed every year. Instead, we stayed home the last 2 years.

[clenz]

Maine absolutely stepped up in playoffs. But they got a 7 seed, which gave them a bye and home field in 1st round. If they had 1 more loss of those 3 games not played, they would have had a playin game, possibly on the road. Then if they won that, would have had to travel again in round of 16 against tougher team.

Kudos to Maine for their playoff performance, but they still benefitted from not playing 3 of 5 top CAA teams. But yes, they proved themselves come playoff time.

Put differently, if ISUr didnt have to play 3 top MVFC teams (NDSU, SDSU, and sometimes UNI) every year ... we would be 8-3 or better, and a top 8 seed every year. Instead, we stayed home the last 2 years.Not sure why you put "sometimes UNI"

Since the DSUs joined the conference UNI has 3 conference titles, and finishes outside the top 3 just 3 times - 12, 13 and 16 where UNI finished 4th

Pretty clear it's UNI NDSU and SDSU as the top 3. And it's not entirely close in terms of consistency

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[Mike296]

I didn't even notice EIU, tbh. I'm actually more surprise that they are that highly ranked more so than surprised about us being left off.

Our schedule is a good schedule, but UTC and UNA haven't been themselves. The second best team on our schedule based off of last year is SEMO. So if you use that as a metric our schedule really isn't that great on paper.

But man, I'm still looking forward to those UTC and UNA games.

Not to mention you have an easy time with us at home to start conference play ffs


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[JSUSoutherner]

Not to mention you have an easy time with us at home to start conference play ffs


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Getting our cupcakes in early.

[Reign of Terrier]

Not sure why you put "sometimes UNI"

Since the DSUs joined the conference UNI has 3 conference titles, and finishes outside the top 3 just 3 times - 12, 13 and 16 where UNI finished 4th

Pretty clear it's UNI NDSU and SDSU as the top 3. And it's not entirely close in terms of consistency

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As I've said in multiple threads, the FCS is a subdivision of a handful of good *teams* not conferences.

In the MVFC, you can expect NDSU, SDSU, and UNI to be competitive every year. One or two other teams will make a case for and in the playoffs (Youngstown State, Illinois State), but MVFC fans IMO overvalue what amount to one hit wonders. For (some) MVFC fans, it's a credit to their amazing conference that Youngstown State went on a run in 2016, only to lose in the championship, but you don't see the same kind of arguments made by CAA folks about Towson. Both teams went on a run, both teams have done close to nothing in the playoffs in the last decade other than that year, but redbird and others would have us think that Youngstown tells us something deeper about the MVFC (which should grant it special privileges), when in fact Youngstown was the third best MVFC team that year (at least by outcome/record) so doing what they did wasn't spectacularly improbable.

The argument that "we play tough teams every year and therefore should get special consideration" is a participation trophy argument. When you play in a tough conference, the losses are going to pile up. If Wofford didn't have to play Samford every year, we would have been seeded or seeded higher in each of the last 3 years. I'm not going to pretend that Samford is on the same level of UNI, SDSU, or NDSU, but the point is that we live with the outcomes our teams create for each other. Still, Illinois State lost to Indiana State and Missouri State last year. Those losses are very much comparable to losing to Samford. If Wofford gets punished via seeding for losing to a team like Samford, ISU-R totally deserves to not get in the playoffs because of losses to Missouri State or Indiana State.

If you're losing to "only" those 3 teams, you finish 8-3 or 7-4 and have a strong case for a playoff spot, but they don't. Every game counts.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Not sure why you put "sometimes UNI"

Since the DSUs joined the conference UNI has 3 conference titles, and finishes outside the top 3 just 3 times - 12, 13 and 16 where UNI finished 4th

Pretty clear it's UNI NDSU and SDSU as the top 3. And it's not entirely close in terms of consistency

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But I did have UNI in my top 3 ... I just think SDSU have been more consistent/formiddable in making an unrelated point about Colonial scheduling advantages.

[Go Green]

Shows how little they think of the Patriot League (rightfully show based on the last two years). Colgate and Holy Cross's OOC slates are easily among the toughest in FCS....

Colgate
Villanova
@ Air Force
@ William & Mary
Maine
@ Dartmouth



Glad to see Dartmouth finally being cited as evidence of a tough schedule. Wasn't that long ago (last year even) when PL fans were bemoaning their difficult opening slate of their schedules... and listing the three or four games they had prior to the Dartmouth game as their "difficult" early schedule.

Ticked me off.

:)

[Son of Eli]

Glad to see Dartmouth finally being cited as evidence of a tough schedule. Wasn't that long ago (last year even) when PL fans were bemoaning their difficult opening slate of their schedules... and listing the three or four games they had prior to the Dartmouth game as their "difficult" early schedule.

Ticked me off.

:)

Glad too see Dartmouth not playing a pioneer league team for a change. You’re good. Time to schedule accordingly.