FCS over FBS Scalp Watch 2019

[bonarae]

Any of these matchups below can happen.... and these matchups in the links are the most likely (especially in the G5 list).

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/7-fcs-vs-fbs-power-five-football-matchups-upsets-2019

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/12-fcs-vs-fbs-group-five-football-matchups-upsets-2019

[CID1990]

The formula is there for The Citadel to pull one off against GT this year but our defense might be our downfall. No idea how they are going to be this season.

[IBleedYellow]

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20190510100954956377404&ref=rec&tm=&src=FCS


This is probably as good of a place as any to drop this.

The Valley has 9 straight years of FCS over FBS wins.

[bonarae]

Bumping this again...

Looks like the list linked below is biased or outdated. What do you say?

https://pypeline.co/potential-fcs-upsets-over-fbs-for-2019/

The article also noted that there have been three I-AA/FCS seasons with NO scalps at all (1980, 1993 and 1997).

[PaladinFan]

While I do not generally agree that Furman and GSU is a "must win" game for Furman, it is certainly one to circle.

I wouldn't sleep on Furman/VT either.

Tech is coming off back to back losing seasons. The Furman game is a noon kick and the Paladins have historically given ACC teams not named Clemson all sorts of fits. They weren't totally overmatched in their last trip to Blacksburg either.

[Redbird 4th & short]

ISUr at NIU in week 1 ... We like our chances against NIU (7-6 overall incl bowl loss) .. won the MAC West (4-1), then beat MAC East chamo for overall MAC championship (7-2 record), and got a bowl game and lost badly.

This year, they have mostly new coaching staffing with the HC change ... offense was middle of road last year .. strong run game with their very tough RB and OL, but could do little to stretch field. They got a transfer QB from Cal, but lost several good OL. They also lost some key pieces from a very good defense (2 stud DEs with 25 combined sacks) and their secondary is very young/small .. they just will not be able to tackle Robinson when he gets past their front 7. They like their DTs and LBers, so that is their strength inside .. but outside and down field there should be holes.

We will lose usual advantage of FBS not knowing an FCS team too well, espcially one with new coaches .... because their new OC is long-term SDSU OC who already knows our defense and Spack very well. He will know what to prepare for on that side of ball .. that's worth 7 to 10 points IMO .. he already knows our current defense without any scouting.

But I still like out chances to win this game.

[Schism55]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOcimzsviFA
Aldo has commanded it, get it done FCS!

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Best bets IMO:

SDSU over Minnesota
JMU over W Virginia
Ill State over NIU

[Sitting Bull]

Fun to guess though the upsets that do come are always so unpredictable. The best bets on paper normally don't work other than NDSU.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Fun to guess though the upsets that do come are always so unpredictable. The best bets on paper normally don't work other than NDSU.


NDSU beats Oregon next year....xnodx

[JSUSoutherner]

If EKU can not suck, I think they may have a shot at Louisville. Louisville is not only god awful, but they will be playing EKU only 5 days after getting their **** kicked in by Notre Dame.

[Redbird 4th & short]

If EKU can not suck, I think they may have a shot at Louisville. Louisville is not only god awful, but they will be playing EKU only 5 days after getting their **** kicked in by Notre Dame.
I think EKU has done ok against FBS as far as at least competing for part of the game. Last year, ISUb was tied at half, and down just 14-7 to Louisville (granted it was the rain soaked day most games dealt with, and some canceled) ... and ISUb did this without a real QB, since it was BEFORE QB Boyle took over the team .. but eventually lost 31-7. If positive vibes were hearing on EKU proves legit, they could put a good scare into Louisville.

[JSUSoutherner]

I think EKU has done ok against FBS as far as at least competing for part of the game. Last year, ISUb was tied at half, and down just 14-7 to Louisville (granted it was the rain soaked day most games dealt with, and some canceled) ... and ISUb did this without a real QB, since it was BEFORE QB Boyle took over the team .. but eventually lost 31-7. If positive vibes were hearing on EKU proves legit, they could put a good scare into Louisville.They took UK to OT a couple seasons back and I think that UK team is better than Louisville and I think this EKU team will be better than the one that took UK to the wire.

Sent from my Galaxy S9+ using Tapatalk

[Mike296]

Colgate over Air Force Week 1, Book it. AF is coming off a losing record and Colgate has been pretty consistent in FCS these past few years. I’m also going to say Nicholls St gives KSU a good game. Not an upset per say but they give them a good game for 3 quarters.

[Sitting Bull]

Colgate over Air Force Week 1, Book it. AF is coming off a losing record and Colgate has been pretty consistent in FCS these past few years. I’m also going to say Nicholls St gives KSU a good game. Not an upset per say but they give them a good game for 3 quarters.

Colgate won't get within 5 touchdowns of Air Force.

[POD Knows]

Colgate over Air Force Week 1, #Bookit. AF is coming off a losing record and Colgate has been pretty consistent in FCS these past few years. I’m also going to say Nicholls St gives KSU a good game. Not an upset per say but they give them a good game for 3 quarters.fyp

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Colgate won't get within 5 touchdowns of Air Force.


This here. Air Force will crush Colgate this year.

[BEAR]

If UCA can stay healthy they will take either Western Kentucky or Hawaii....or possibly both. Looks like the SLC is in a good position to take a few scalps this year. Those injuries at QB for the Bears early last season ruined their season. Can't wait to see them at full strength.

[WestCoastAggie]

Anyone think Alcorn State can scalp So. Miss. and their old HC and Off. coord?

[FUBeAR]

Colgate over Air Force Week 1, Book it.
Colgate was afraid to fly south on a cloudy day last year. How they gonna deal with this?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwZnenyIMAAEIPe.jpg:large

[RootinFerDukes]

Best bets IMO:

SDSU over Minnesota
JMU over W Virginia
Ill State over NIU

I’d be very surprised if JMU beat WVU. I’ve learned most P5 have a big advantage over all of the FCS not named NDSU.

[UpstateBison]

Colgate was afraid to fly south on a cloudy day last year. How they gonna deal with this?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwZnenyIMAAEIPe.jpg:large

Just another whining Furman fan. Colgate made the right decision based on the weather forecast. Thankfully, the forecasts were wrong.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BucBisonAtLarge]

I'm going to Sam Houston at New Mexico. That looks ripe for a scalping.

[Laker]

Best bets IMO:

SDSU over Minnesota
JMU over W Virginia
Ill State over NIU

I might go to that Thursday game. Or maybe even to Brookings when they host Long Island the next week.

[McNeese72]

Well, the Cowboys are probably going to get their butts kicked by the Cowboys. ;)

Doc

[FUBeAR]

Colgate made the right decision based on the weather forecast. Thankfully, the forecasts were wrong.They sure did make the right decision for their Players, Coaches, Staff, and supporters who might also have traveled, but saying that kinda ruins the poking-fun-at-the-Raiders humor of associating their decision with the posting of this cool (and funny) sign that hangs over the Visitor’s locker room door at Falcon Stadium.

https://www.mememaker.net/api/bucket?path=static/img/memes/full/2017/Jun/1/19/no-you-cant-have-fun.jpg

[Sader87]

HC ovah Syracuse..:)

[DEX]

Surprised he would list NC A&T at Duke as a possible upset. We've shown we can take care of a struggling G5 but a good ACC team is a huge challenge, especially with us replacing 14 starters.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Colgate won't get within 5 touchdowns of Air Force.

Not sure about 5 but Air Force will win comfortably (20-28 pts imo). Brutally tough place to play to start the year given the heat and altitude. Colgate will be good this year but the Falcons in Colorado Springs is a task way too tall.

[BDKJMU]

I’d be very surprised if JMU beat WVU. I’ve learned most P5 have a big advantage over all of the FCS not named NDSU.
So you don’t think JMU will be any better than last year, and WVU will be as good as NC State was (9-4)?

[Daytripper]

I'm going to Sam Houston at New Mexico. That looks ripe for a scalping.

I am cautiously optimistic about this game. It could be a real measuring stick as to what our season will look like. Bob Davie is on the hot seat over there, so we'll see. The last time we won over there in 2011 they fired their coach (Current Maryland coach Mike Locksley) after the game.

[hktribefan]

Triple option can get out of hand in a hurry; this one gets out of hand fast.

[RootinFerDukes]

Just another whining Furman fan. Colgate made the right decision based on the weather forecast. Thankfully, the forecasts were wrong.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don’t know why they are that upset about it anyways. It’s a nearly guaranteed loss for Furman in hindsight. They would’ve gone from playoff bubble to not even in the conversation.

[RootinFerDukes]

So you don’t think JMU will be any better than last year, and WVU will be as good as NC State was (9-4)?

The offense is completely up in the air (QB and OL play). What does NC state have to do with WVU? That same 2018 JMU team lost to Elon, UNH and Colgate. They’re just as capable of poor play as good play. That’s kind of the problem. Inconsistency.

[FUBeAR]

I don’t know why they are that upset about it anyways. It’s a nearly guaranteed loss for Furman in hindsight. They would’ve gone from playoff bubble to not even in the conversation.
LOL - there is a BOLD predictions thread, but perhaps you should start a MORONIC ‘POSTdictions’ thread for this tripe.

[tigonian02]

While I do not generally agree that Furman and GSU is a "must win" game for Furman, it is certainly one to circle.

I wouldn't sleep on Furman/VT either.

Tech is coming off back to back losing seasons. The Furman game is a noon kick and the Paladins have historically given ACC teams not named Clemson all sorts of fits. They weren't totally overmatched in their last trip to Blacksburg either.

I need Furman to beat GaState. Please and thank you. They shouldn’t be your hardest game of the year.

[Derby City Duke]

So you don’t think JMU will be any better than last year, and WVU will be as good as NC State was (9-4)?

I think the bigger question is which philosophy will Coach Cignetti adopt: Mickey Matthews' 'play it close to the vest and try to not get anyone hurt while collecting the paycheck' or Mike Houston's 'throw haymakers all day and beat them into submission?'

[BDKJMU]

The offense is completely up in the air (QB and OL play). What does NC state have to do with WVU? That same 2018 JMU team lost to Elon, UNH and Colgate. They’re just as capable of poor play as good play. That’s kind of the problem. Inconsistency.

2018 NC State (9-4) > 2019 WVU (NO ONE is picking WVU to have a winning record- I’ve seen projections for anywhere from 2-10 to 5-7. They lost a ton from last yr, including Grier & the Big 12 Defensive POTY. A lot of their players transferred out with the regime change. Their 2 deep shows only 4 starters back offense & 6 defense. WVU isn’t going to have a Finley at QB.

Vs NCSU only 4-5 JMU players on offense, and Moreland the only one on defense, who started 8 months prior in Frisco, & only 1 senior on each side of the ball. When I found out morning of the game Robinson & D Carter were out, I thought NCSU, with their draft picks at QB/WR/OL was going to put up 40-50 & roll JMU. Was a very close ball game (17-13) until the broken play late 4th..Finley & the NC State WR who burned the young 3rd string JMU CBs (remember at CB, in addition to Robinson, Oliver & Tutt were also out) (Moreland pretty much shut the draft pick Harmon down) was the biggest difference in that game. Robinson doesn’t get hurt I think JMU wins it, but we’ll never know.

So if that talented but very young & inexperienced JMU team hung with a good NC State team, why would you be ‘very’ surprised if a equally if not more talented & much more veteran & experienced JMU upset a WVU team that by all accounts won’t be nearly as good as NC State was last year?

Chavious (maybe the 4th best OL, at least in # of starts) leaving the team and Stapleton’s 3 game suspension don’t help. FWIW game week (pending training camp news & weather forecast) I’ll probably be in the minority on the JMU board predicting a 1 score WVU win, but barring any significant JMU training camp losses (fingers crossed) I won’t be ‘very’ surprised, or even mildly, if JMU won.

[Sitting Bull]

Will throw out a CAA version. Since 2000, CAA teams have 29 wins in FBS games. Only three years since 2000 didn't have a win, the last was 2014.

On this year's slate, odds are two wins based on 20 years of history. Here are the games:
UAlbany at Central Michigan
Stony Brook at Utah State
Maine at Georgia Southern
Maine at Liberty
UNH at Florida International
URI at Ohio
URI at Virginia Tech
Delaware at Pitt
Towson at Florida
Richmond at Boston College
JMU at West Virginia
Elon at Wake Forest
W&M at Virginia
W&M at East Carolina

[BDKJMU]

Will throw out a CAA version. Since 2000, CAA teams have 29 wins in FBS games. Only three years since 2000 didn't have a win, the last was 2014.

On this year's slate, odds are two wins based on 20 years of history. Here are the games:
UAlbany at Central Michigan
Stony Brook at Utah State
Maine at Georgia Southern
Maine at Liberty
UNH at Florida International
URI at Ohio
URI at Virginia Tech
Delaware at Pitt
Towson at Florida
Richmond at Boston College
JMU at West Virginia
Elon at Wake Forest
W&M at Virginia
W&M at East Carolina

Me thinks the CAA will probably be dogs in all of those with a possible exception of Maine @ Liberty.. I’ll say the CAA goes 2-12. Maybe 3-11..

[SonuvaHenx2]

I'll take these:

UAlbany at Central Michigan
Stony Brook at Utah State
Maine at Georgia Southern
Maine at Liberty
UNH at Florida International
URI at Ohio
URI at Virginia Tech
Delaware at Pitt
Towson at Florida
Richmond at Boston College
JMU at West Virginia
Elon at Wake Forest
W&M at Virginia
W&M at East Carolina

[RootinFerDukes]

I’d love to see four of those wins. It’d be one hell of a weekend for the caa.

Liberty and ECU losing would be LULZ.

[PaladinFan]

I don’t know why they are that upset about it anyways. It’s a nearly guaranteed loss for Furman in hindsight. They would’ve gone from playoff bubble to not even in the conversation.

A guaranteed loss for a Furman team that had hammered Colgate on the road the year before?

The game got canceled, I get it, but Furman has recently played Colgate three times and beaten the snot out of them three times. It was anything but a guaranteed loss (especially in Greenville)

[gofurman]

I donÂ’t know why they are that upset about it anyways. ItÂ’s a nearly guaranteed loss for Furman in hindsight. They wouldÂ’ve gone from playoff bubble to not even in the conversation.

People need to get the FACTS on this. Please.

Here you go. Furman has played Colgate three times. And WON. ALL. THREE. EASILY!
42-21 Furman win w a bad Furman team in 2008
45-15 Furman win w a mediocre Furman team in 2010

And the KICKER:
in 2017, so mostly the same players on both teams --- Furman won AT COLGATE 45-14 in a FREAKIN' ROUT. Colgate had no answer for our team speed.

so, until Colgate actually, well, WINS ONCE vs Furman... We should maybe assume Furman coulda won last year? With mostly the same guys Furman beat by more than THIRTY POINTS on the road the year prior??!

[cx500d]

People need to get the FACTS on this. Please.

Here you go. Furman has played Colgate three times. And WON. ALL. THREE. EASILY!
42-21 Furman win w a bad Furman team in 2008
45-15 Furman win w a mediocre Furman team in 2010

And the KICKER:
in 2017, so mostly the same players on both teams --- Furman won AT COLGATE 45-14 in a FREAKIN' ROUT. Colgate had no answer for our team speed.

so, until Colgate actually, well, WINS ONCE vs Furman... We should maybe assume Furman coulda won last year? With mostly the same guys Furman beat by more than THIRTY POINTS on the road the year prior??!

Here we go...#SouthernSpeed


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[PaladinFan]

Here we go...#SouthernSpeed


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Has nothing to do with "southern speed." Furman whipped their fannies three times. I'm not saying we would have won in 2018, but calling it a "nearly guaranteed loss" is dumb given the history between the teams.

[MR. CHICKEN]

.....BUT YOUSE DID LOSE....YER FIRST THREE GAMES PLAYED...............xwhistlex.......BRAWK!

[ST_Lawson]

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1156364889050484741

[cx500d]

Has nothing to do with "southern speed." Furman whipped their fannies three times. I'm not saying we would have won in 2018, but calling it a "nearly guaranteed loss" is dumb given the history between the teams.

You wouldn’t have scored a touchdown last year. Good thing you chickened out


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[PaladinFan]

You wouldn’t have scored a touchdown last year. Good thing you chickened out


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Can't argue with that logic.

[cx500d]

Can't argue with that logic.

When you can’t make the playoffs, it is hard to refute


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[RootinFerDukes]

JMU was undefeated all time against Elon but the past didn’t do much last season.

Arguing Furman wouldn’t have lost due to games from previous seasons, when they didn’t even have a playoff worthy record...

Wow. Just wow. Whatever gets you by I guess.

[RootinFerDukes]

When you can’t make the playoffs, it is hard to refute


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

BUT THAT DOESNT MATTER THEY WOOPED THEM THREE TIMES IN THE PAST! Guaranteed win! By 70 TDs.

[FUBeAR]

When you can’t make the playoffs, it is hard to refute


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
https://i.imgur.com/ajidjsu.gif

- - - Updated - - -


JMU was undefeated all time against Elon but the past didn’t do much last season.

Arguing Furman wouldn’t have lost due to games from previous seasons, when they didn’t even have a playoff worthy record...

Wow. Just wow. Whatever gets you by I guess.
https://i.imgur.com/ajidjsu.gif

[Schism55]

https://twitter.com/SamHerderFCS/status/1158879502094753792

[gofurman]

JMU was undefeated all time against Elon but the past didn’t do much last season.

Arguing Furman wouldn’t have lost due to games from previous seasons, when they didn’t even have a playoff worthy record...

Wow. Just wow. Whatever gets you by I guess.

not so quick - We won the SoCon last year ( 3 teams at 6-2; tri-champs) and were one of only TWO or THREE SoCon champs EVER (think about that) not to make the playoffs. Put another way, SoCon champs were like 50 in and only 2 left out of playoffs until last year. That's a pretty strong statement...

I bet you didn't know that. You need to back down unless you have FACTS

[gofurman]

Here we go...#SouthernSpeed


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

# southernspeed - ask Ohio State and Michigan and all those JOKE schools in the North about it. It's all Clemson and Bama and UGA etc. these days. Even (I HATE him) Kirk Herbstreit had to admit it one day on ESPN. Where is Michigan and Minnesota and Illinois vs Clemson and Bama and UGA - NOWHERE.

At the top level it is different. You must be watching different games than me. NDSU ain't beating SEC schools

[gofurman]

Has nothing to do with "southern speed." Furman whipped their fannies three times. I'm not saying we would have won in 2018, but calling it a "nearly guaranteed loss" is dumb given the history between the teams.

This - to call it a 'near guaranteed loss' is about the STUPIDEST thing I have ever read. Call it a toss-up. Say "I think Colgate woulda bucked the trend and finally won". But a "near guaranteed loss' is just stupid. And I really am pretty objective about my team.

I am pretty objective, You give me ANY team that returned most all of their players and coaches and beat the other team by THIRTY ONE the prior year (say Colgate beat Lehigh by 31 - whomever) and now has the prior Loser coming to play on the road (at Furman in this case, or Colgate in my example).. and I'll always say it is dumb to say it's a near guaranteed loss' for the team that won the prior year.

[uni88]

# southernspeed - ask Ohio State and Michigan and all those JOKE schools in the North about it. It's all Clemson and Bama and UGA etc. these days. Even (I HATE him) Kirk Herbstreit had to admit it one day on ESPN. Where is Michigan and Minnesota and Illinois vs Clemson and Bama and UGA - NOWHERE.

At the top level it is different. You must be watching different games than me. NDSU ain't beating SEC schools

JOKE Schools? In football maybe. Academically they blow the doors off of SEC public universities.

The honest comparison is Ohio State, Notre Dame and Michigan not "Minnesota and Illinois" vs "Clemson and Bama and UGA." How well did Notre Dame & Alabama do against Clemson last year?

[gofurman]

JOKE Schools? In football maybe. Academically they blow the doors off of SEC public universities.

The honest comparison is Ohio State, Notre Dame and Michigan not "Minnesota and Illinois" vs "Clemson and Bama and UGA." How well did Notre Dame & Alabama do against Clemson last year?

Look, I don't even like the SEC. Fun atmosphere etc. but yeah, their academics are horrible - absolutely. Cam Newton payoffs too. Of Course ol' Ohio State can Cheat with the best of them ! Wow -

Anyway, that said, Ohio State and and Notre Dame and Michigan are NOT Clemson and Bama and UGA. OSU and ND and Michigan are second-tier right now. It's basically the Bama / Clemson invitational over and over and over again :D


On another note THIS still kills me - As someone put on FaceBook .. "No, Ohio State, PLEASE NO""Despite what we all learned about his leadership during the scandal that will define the end of his coaching career, Meyer will teach a leadership course. Students will likely line up in droves to take it (http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25583852/urban-meyer-teach-leadership-class-ohio-state-buckeyes-business-school), as Meyer shares the lectern with a veteran.
“Urban Meyer brings extensive leadership experience and a unique perspective to students seeking to engage with top leaders,” the Fisher College of Business said in a prepared statement. “The course will leverage Coach Meyer’s professional insights, challenges and successes, as well as the military experiences of co-instructor Lt. Col. Charles Buchanan, to help inform students as they develop their individual leadership styles.”


It is interesting that Ohio State’s cool with this.

Despite the fact that he kept a problematic subordinate on staff largely due to loyalty to that subordinate’s uncle (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/8/24/17773082/urban-meyer-zach-smith-reports-ohio-state), Meyer will teach a character and leadership course.

Despite the fact that he is on record saying he struggles to delegate (https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/12/04/ohio-states-urban-meyer-reportedly-retire-after-rose-bowl/), Meyer will teach a character and leadership course.

Despite the fact that an independent review (https://news.osu.edu/public-records-related-to-the-investigation-into-allegations-involving-urban-meyer/) into the scandal said this about Meyer’s leadership ...

[tierre]

We have usm as the first game of the year. Our former head coach Jay Hopson is their coach now. If we can limit our mistakes we can win this thing

[Reign of Terrier]

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1156364889050484741

I'm Kennesaw State skeptical. They lose a lot. I think they plow through the Big South easily and will be a playoff-caliber team by the time they make the playoff but if I'm a top 15 FCS or a low-tier FBS team I'm licking my chops for an early season game.

Furman's chances against Georgia State are higher than listed. Albany's are too high.

Also, Furman fans are, um, back.

The shots at "garbage schools" was a dead giveaway

[gofurman]

I'm Kennesaw State skeptical. They lose a lot. I think they plow through the Big South easily and will be a playoff-caliber team by the time they make the playoff but if I'm a top 15 FCS or a low-tier FBS team I'm licking my chops for an early season game.

Furman's chances against Georgia State are higher than listed. Albany's are too high.

Also, Furman fans are, um, back.

The shots at "garbage schools" was a dead giveaway

If some of our fans are saying 'garbage schools' thats a shame.

More to the point of football - I think 30% range is about right. Georgia State beat a good Kennesaw last year and is supposed to be better this year. That right there tells me a lot. IE, they were a 7 win team in 2017.. took a big step back to 2 wins last year (and still beat KSU) but are supposed to win 3 or 4 this year with a .. STRONG RETURNING QB. That's my fear. You know Furman and WOff struggle w underneath passes.

GSU ain't good but they are top 15 FCS easily - as shown by beating KSU last year. SO let's say they are a quarterfinal FCS-type team.. plus they throw a lot (Furman's weakness) plus its at their place. I mean, objectively, if Furman played number 15 FCS on the road and they had a Samford-like offense I would say we are a 7/10 point underdog. Another point, it will be our QBs second game of his career. So we will need our OL and defense to help greatly. Can our OL push GSU around. I don't know about that beacuse I see that we recruit against them some. Again, they would be top 15 FCS. Just ask Kennesaw State last year.

I would increase our chances if this game were in October and our QB was more expereinced. But second game ever? That's a tough ask

[GreenGlasses]

We have usm as the first game of the year. Our former head coach Jay Hopson is their coach now. If we can limit our mistakes we can win this thing

Southern Miss has the 2nd best defense and OL in CUSA. Will be more than a tall task for Alcon State to compete with USM.

[FUBeAR]

If some of our fans are saying 'garbage schools' thats a shame.

More to the point of football - I think 30% range is about right. Georgia State beat a good Kennesaw last year and is supposed to be better this year. That right there tells me a lot. IE, they were a 7 win team in 2017.. took a big step back to 2 wins last year (and still beat KSU) but are supposed to win 3 or 4 this year with a .. STRONG RETURNING QB. That's my fear. You know Furman and WOff struggle w underneath passes.

GSU ain't good but they are top 15 FCS easily - as shown by beating KSU last year. SO let's say they are a quarterfinal FCS-type team.. plus they throw a lot (Furman's weakness) plus its at their place. I mean, objectively, if Furman played number 15 FCS on the road and they had a Samford-like offense I would say we are a 7/10 point underdog. Another point, it will be our QBs second game of his career. So we will need our OL and defense to help greatly. Can our OL push GSU around. I don't know about that beacuse I see that we recruit against them some. Again, they would be top 15 FCS. Just ask Kennesaw State last year.

I would increase our chances if this game were in October and our QB was more expereinced. But second game ever? That's a tough askwe gonna stomp a mud hole in ‘em!

[bonarae]

Bumping this for prediction time... xcoffeex

[ST_Lawson]

https://twitter.com/HEROSportsFCS/status/1164642973239451653

[BEAR]

https://twitter.com/HEROSportsFCS/status/1164642973239451653

Interesting. #1,2,3, and 9 are SLC schools. Let's hope they are right so the FCS can look good this year.

[DEX]

We have usm as the first game of the year. Our former head coach Jay Hopson is their coach now. If we can limit our mistakes we can win this thing

I'm calling this one for Alcorn now.

[bonarae]

As of Thursday Week 1: The FCS is 1-9 so far in money games.

Scalped:
UCA at WKU

Ooh, so close:
SDSU at Minnesota (TD calls negated by flags, inconsistent QB play, turnovers)
Alabama State at UAB (dropped passes in the end zone)
Wagner at UConn (Wagner didn't respond well in 1H)

No chance at all
Robert Morris at Buffalo
Florida A&M at UCF
Morgan State at Bowling Green
Albany at Central Michigan
Gardner-Webb at Charlotte
UNC at SJSU

[mvemjsunpx]

Alabama State at UAB (dropped passes in the end zone)

UAB was a 39-point favorite in that one.

[Sitting Bull]

Congrats to UCA, nice win and with a nice comeback.

UConn fans have to be nervous after the scare from Wagner. Missed opportunity for the CAA. A match-up with UConn this year looks like the conference could have picked up another W vs FBS.

[ysubigred]

As of Thursday Week 1: The FCS is 1-9 so far in money games.

Scalped:
UCA at WKU

Ooh, so close:
SDSU at Minnesota (TD calls negated by flags, inconsistent QB play, turnovers)
Alabama State at UAB (dropped passes in the end zone)
Wagner at UConn (Wagner didn't respond well in 1H)

No chance at all
Robert Morris at Buffalo
Florida A&M at UCF
Morgan State at Bowling Green
Albany at Central Michigan
Gardner-Webb at Charlotte
UNC at SJSU

Congrats!! Not taking anything away from UCA but WKU has regressed since leaving the MVFC xsmhx

[bonarae]

UConn fans have to be nervous after the scare from Wagner. Missed opportunity for the CAA. A match-up with UConn this year looks like the conference could have picked up another W vs FBS.

Wagner is not in the CAA but in the NEC. But I agree that Wagner woke up late.

[Sitting Bull]

Wagner is not in the CAA but in the NEC. But I agree that Wagner woke up late.

Im aware of that and a good showing by Wagner.

My point was had a CAA team been the UConn FCS opponent this year, very likely they may have won against this years UConn team, particularly any in the mid to upper echelon. Most of UConns FCS games are against a CAA team, just not this season when it looks like they are very beatable.

i think Towson was the last FCS team to beat UConn.

[BEAR]

Congrats!! Not taking anything away from UCA but WKU has regressed since leaving the MVFC xsmhx

So they transitioned in 2007 or so. They won the Conference USA conference title twice in 2015 and 2016. Seven years with a winning record or better. 5 bowl games since going FBS. WKU is either a 10-2 team or a 2-10 team...not much middle ground with them since their days in the Gateway. The Sunbelt really messed them up though. xlolx

[ysubigred]

So they transitioned in 2007 or so. They won the Conference USA conference title twice in 2015 and 2016. Seven years with a winning record or better. 5 bowl games since going FBS. WKU is either a 10-2 team or a 2-10 team...not much middle ground with them since their days in the Gateway. The Sunbelt really messed them up though. xlolx

Sun Belt was bad xsmhx . I live here (KY) and watching WKU as an MVFC team live, and seeing them in 2016 live, I'm not sure they were any better. WKU's move up to 1BCS was driven by the quest for a better basketball situation.

[Outsider1]

"No chance at all
Robert Morris at Buffalo
Florida A&M at UCF
Morgan State at Bowling Green
Albany at Central Michigan
Gardner-Webb at Charlotte
UNC at SJSU"

31070

[bonarae]

"No chance at all
Robert Morris at Buffalo
Florida A&M at UCF
Morgan State at Bowling Green
Albany at Central Michigan
Gardner-Webb at Charlotte
UNC at SJSU"

31070

The "no chance at all" means that (OR conditions):
a) margin of victory for the FBS opponent is more than one TD
b) FCS team was unable to find offense in their game
c) (Wagner almost bucked this last Thursday) FCS team wakes up "late" in the game (e.g. after the 1st quarter or half ends)

[Daytripper]

WKU is better than New Mexico. If SHSU is going to compete for a Southland title this year, we need to beat UNM.

[kdinva]

UConn fans have to be nervous after the scare from Wagner......

makes the chatter for UConn dropping back to 1AA louder.... xrotatehx

[Outsider1]

"WKU is better than New Mexico. If SHSU is going to compete for a Southland title this year, we need to beat UNM."

+1

[aceinthehole]

makes the chatter for UConn dropping back to 1AA louder.... xrotatehx

No, it actually doesn't. They would rather drop football than play FCS ever again. There is a better chance that UConn will drop football by 2035.

[Redbird 4th & short]

So 2 lists have been pasted on this thread. Just to put these in some persective, I've added the 2018 Record and Massey Composite rank as of Jan 7th 2019 for each FBS team.

First list was for FCS teams with highest probability of winning ... notably all against lower ranked G5 teams:

Kennesaw St (win prob: 58%) at Kent St .. 2-10, 126th
WIU (45%) at Colo St .. 3-9, 113th
SIU (41%) at UMass .. 4-8, 108th
IWU (41%) at UTSA .. 3-9, 123rd
Maine (39%) at Liberty .. 6-6, 101st
Furman (35%) at Georgia St .. 2-10, 122nd
Nicholls (31%) at TXST .. 3-9, 124th
IWU (30%) at NMSU .. 3-9, 125th
Albany (28%) at CMU .. 1-11, 127th
Ill St (27%) at NIU .. 8-6, 73rd

Different list for P5 games with Vegas spreads:

SDSU +12.5 vs. MN .. 7-6, 45th .. nice job competing, SDSU .. and certainly did enough to win that game
JMU +8 vs. WVU .. 8-4, 21st
SHSU +10.5 vs. New Mexico .. 3-9, 114th ... probably belongs in above list
Indiana State +7 vs. Kansas .. 3-9, 96th

UCA +9.5 vs. WKU .. 3-9, 118th .. this one too, I hadn't realized these guys slipped this much; they were 11-3 in 2017, then 6-7 in 2018. Nice win for UCA, but not as impressive as I first thought.

UNI +18.5 vs. Iowa State .. 8-5, 33rd
Colgate +16 vs. Air Force .. 5-7, 90th

There were 130 teams in FBS in 2018, so any teams ranked 90 or worse are in the bottom 30%-ile. Again, I am using the Massey Composite, which by Jan 7th is the average of 55 polls/ranking systems .. with the average of all of its subjective and system bias, objectively taken together.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/arch/compare2018-15.htm

p.s. reference to prior post, UConn was 129th of 130 FBS teams in 2018. Also note, 4 of the bottom 10 ranked teams from 2018 are from Texas: UTEP, Rice, Texas St, UTSA ... apparently, just because your bio says you played TX HS football, doesn't automatically mean you can play at college level

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

No, it actually doesn't. They would rather drop football than play FCS ever again. There is a better chance that UConn will drop football by 2035.

You think it will take that long? I think they'll be forced to make a decision within the next 3-5 years given the program's current trajectory.

[Redbird 4th & short]

You think it will take that long? I think they'll be forced to make a decision within the next 3-5 years given the program's current trajectory.
Wagner game certainly moved the needle further .. imagine the turmoil behind the scenes there after that showing in their home opener ... got to be serious pressure cooker and demoralizing. Wagner was 3-7 in D-I games a year ago playing in NEC .. lost 62-10 to good Syracuse team (top 20 ?).

[aceinthehole]

You think it will take that long? I think they'll be forced to make a decision within the next 3-5 years given the program's current trajectory.

Honestly, I'm not sure - but yes sometime in the next 5-10 years they have a real decision to make. They can keep flushing $$$ down the toilet playing Indy football, or just close up shop.

If, and its a big if, we see some sort of regional G5 football realignment, they might be able to keep going. A conference of UConn, UMass, Army, Navy, Temple, and Buffalo, is a great core, but we know it is not enough to build a conference for football-only. I also think CTE and generall football participation rates, might make it an "easier" decision for UConn to drop the sport in the future.

The State of Connecticut has a 40K-seat stadium in East Hartford that will become a white elephant without UConn football. It hosts very few concerts anymore, fewer US National soccer games, and is too big (and expensive) for minor league soccer, CCSU Football, or anything else. I think the UConn administration moves to cut costs, plays a lot more $$$ games, and tries to read the college football landscape after 2035. If they see other "like-minded" schools in a similar position they keep going - if not, FBS football in Connecticut and the Northeast in general won't be missed. It will have been an expensive experiment that failed because they were left behind in conference realignment

[ST_Lawson]

WIU (45%) at Colo St .. 3-9, 113th

I feel like our odds are significantly lower after our showing at UNA and how Colorado State did last night against Colorado (they had a pretty solid first half, struggled a bit in the second half). Massey has us down to 32% and honestly...even that feels pretty darn generous.

[semobison]

Iowa State Leads Northern Iowa 3-0 end of 1st qtr. Panthers defense holding its own.

[Catatonic]

WKU is better than New Mexico. If SHSU is going to compete for a Southland title this year, we need to beat UNM.

WKU is better than UTSA as well. If UIW is going to compete they need to beat UTSA.

We play North Texas. UNT is better than UNM, WKU and UTSA. Lucky us. No pressure to win.

[SoCalAg]

FG by the Aggies

UC Davis - 10
UC Berkeley - 0

:40 to go in the 1st Q

[Schism55]

Just saw the Maryland v Howard score, wtf?! Did Howard actually take the field?

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Just saw the Maryland v Howard score, wtf?! Did Howard actually take the field?

Penn State dismantled Idaho 79-7

Lots of FCS teams served as tasty cupcakes today....

[bonarae]

Ooh, so close:
UNI at Iowa State - Panthers failed to capitalize in the OTs
Trees at Kansas - not sure what happened there
JMU at WVU - both coaches debuting with their teams; JMU had missed the services of suspended players
Portland State at Arkansas - inconsistent showing on both sides of the ball by the Vikings, but more prevalent on offense.

One money game with the FCS team having a winnable chance is still in progress: UC Davis at Cal. Weber State at San Diego State won't be until 9 PM EDT.

[ST_Lawson]

One money game with the FCS team having a winnable chance is still in progress: UC Davis at Cal. Weber State at San Diego State won't be until 9 PM EDT.

Northern Illinois just pulled ahead of Illinois State, 10-3 near the end of the 3rd. If ISU can complete a few passes, they're still in this game.

EDIT - and ISU ties it up with a long bomb TD pass. They're absolutely still in this game.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ElCid]

Norfolk St making a game of it at ODU. Probably come up short.

[ST_Lawson]

Houston Baptist only down 2 (36-34) to UTEP with 8:15 left in the game.
If you have ESPN+ you can watch it here: http://www.espn.com/watch/?id=87292398-6e7d-4f0b-a076-9ff03cc6a696

[caribbeanhen]

Northern Illinois just pulled ahead of Illinois State, 10-3 near the end of the 3rd. If ISU can complete a few passes, they're still in this game.

EDIT - and ISU ties it up with a long bomb TD pass. They're absolutely still in this game.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

the pass right before that one was a thing of beauty from the Ill St QB....

[bonarae]

Only one scalp for Week 1. xsmhx

Week 2 list:

Friday
W&M at Virginia
Sacramento State at Sun Devils

Saturday
Kennesaw State at Kent State
Southern U at Memphis
Charleston Southern at Columbia Gamecocks (USC)
WCU at NC State
Fordham at Ball State
Tennessee Tech at Miami Redhawks
Richmond at BC
EIU at Hoosiers
Grambling at Louisiana Tech
SIU at UMass
WIU at Colorado State
Murray State at UGA
UNC at Wazzu
NCA&T at Duke
Gardner-Webb at ECU
Maine at Georgia Southern
Furman at Georgia State
EKU at Louisville
Tennessee State at MTSU
Yotes at Sooners
McNeese at Oklahoma State
Jackson State at South Alabama
UTM at Florida
Stony Brook at Utah State
Prairie View at Houston
NAU at Arizona Wildcats

Of all these games in Week 2, more than 5 scalps is going to be rare. I'll be happy with even 2. There were many, many missed opportunities in Week 1 2019, with a 1-39 record to show for the whole FCS. (Of the "ooh, so close" games, Wagner, Alabama State, SDSU, UNI, HBU, ISU red, UC Davis, Weber State were all winnable had luck been on their side.)

[ysubigred]

Only one scalp for Week 1. xsmhx

Week 2 list:

Friday
W&M at Virginia
Sacramento State at Sun Devils

Saturday
Kennesaw State at Kent State
Southern U at Memphis
Charleston Southern at Columbia Gamecocks (USC)
WCU at NC State
Fordham at Ball State
Tennessee Tech at Miami Redhawks
Richmond at BC
EIU at Hoosiers
Grambling at Louisiana Tech
SIU at UMass
WIU at Colorado State
Murray State at UGA
UNC at Wazzu
NCA&T at Duke
Gardner-Webb at ECU
Maine at Georgia Southern
Furman at Georgia State
EKU at Louisville
Tennessee State at MTSU
Yotes at Sooners
McNeese at Oklahoma State
Jackson State at South Alabama
UTM at Florida
Stony Brook at Utah State
Prairie View at Houston
NAU at Arizona Wildcats

Of all these games in Week 2, more than 5 scalps is going to be rare. I'll be happy with even 2. There were many, many missed opportunities in Week 1 2019, with a 1-39 record to show for the whole FCS. (Of the "ooh, so close" games, Wagner, Alabama State, SDSU, UNI, HBU, ISU red, UC Davis, Weber State were all winnable had luck been on their side.)Indy State was an oh so close also.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[ElCid]

Indy State was an oh so close also.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

As was Norfolk St.

[Schism55]

WKU is better than UTSA as well. If UIW is going to compete they need to beat UTSA.

We play North Texas. UNT is better than UNM, WKU and UTSA. Lucky us. No pressure to win.
Welp, that didn't happen, Incarnate Word got waxed.

[Panther88]

PV battles uofh next Saturday at their place.

Hopefully ou decimates them well enough for us to finish them off.

[Redbird 4th & short]

the pass right before that one was a thing of beauty from the Ill St QB....

yes, but our QB was terrible for 3 qtrs. Even on the NIU forum, many posters commented how fortunate they were our QB was missing many open receivers the first 3 qtrs. Excluding the QB, we played well enough the first 3 qtrs to be up by 2 TDs ... but best we could do was tie game up at 10-10 with that nice play. He finally started connecting on some, actually some tough throws in Q4 ... suddenly we wee moving the ball despite how strong their front 7 was in stopping our run.

So while we clearly deserved to lose the game, it was a winnable game if our QB is just decent the first 3 qtrs. You had to see the wide open receivers he missed repeatedly inside of 20 yards. Frankly, I've already lost patience with this guy because hypes himself a lot .. lot of talk, little walk .. especially when we face very good defenses. That is what happened last season in our 4 straight losses, his accuracy slips fats, our play book shrinks, and we become too predictable against good defenses. I thought maybe a fill offseason would cure some this ... but as good as NIU front 7 was, we had many opportunities in pass game that wouuld have loosened things up some on offense.

Already declared on Redbird forum ... no more koolaid support from me. No more coddling our #1. Any other position player hyped himself that much and then played like that, he would be run out of locker room. Either he shuts up or steps up ... either way, we need to look at our #2 in the next 3 OOC games, plus a bye week, if our #1 doesn't settle down. I'd rather start over than put up with so much more talk, than walk from this guy .. that's what bugs the most, so I'm done with it. Shut up and/or step up ... he is talented and has good pocket sense. But at this point, he needs some tough love from coaches or we move on to our #2 and develop him.

[Daytripper]

PV battles uofh next Saturday at their place.

Hopefully ou decimates them well enough for us to finish them off.

OU and UH may put up 150 pts between them.

[mvfcfan]

Even though SIU is not that good, UMass most years is just as bad. I also think EKU might have a chance against LVLE if they are as bad this season as last. LVLE plays ND tomorrow night so we'll see if they've improved any. If not a short week for the Cards might help EKU. Those two games are the ones I will be paying attention to.

[caribbeanhen]

yes, but our QB was terrible for 3 qtrs. Even on the NIU forum, many posters commented how fortunate they were our QB was missing many open receivers the first 3 qtrs. Excluding the QB, we played well enough the first 3 qtrs to be up by 2 TDs ... but best we could do was tie game up at 10-10 with that nice play. He finally started connecting on some, actually some tough throws in Q4 ... suddenly we wee moving the ball despite how strong their front 7 was in stopping our run.

So while we clearly deserved to lose the game, it was a winnable game if our QB is just decent the first 3 qtrs. You had to see the wide open receivers he missed repeatedly inside of 20 yards. Frankly, I've already lost patience with this guy because hypes himself a lot .. lot of talk, little walk .. especially when we face very good defenses. That is what happened last season in our 4 straight losses, his accuracy slips fats, our play book shrinks, and we become too predictable against good defenses. I thought maybe a fill offseason would cure some this ... but as good as NIU front 7 was, we had many opportunities in pass game that wouuld have loosened things up some on offense.

Already declared on Redbird forum ... no more koolaid support from me. No more coddling our #1. Any other position player hyped himself that much and then played like that, he would be run out of locker room. Either he shuts up or steps up ... either way, we need to look at our #2 in the next 3 OOC games, plus a bye week, if our #1 doesn't settle down. I'd rather start over than put up with so much more talk, than walk from this guy .. that's what bugs the most, so I'm done with it. Shut up and/or step up ... he is talented and has good pocket sense. But at this point, he needs some tough love from coaches or we move on to our #2 and develop him.

this is about the time I turned your game on, he made a great pass under heavy pressure right before the bomb that tied it up 10 10, so I was very impressed but did not see the first 3 quarters...

[dewey]

Congratulations to Central Arkansas on the scalp.

Dewey

[Redbird 4th & short]

this is about the time I turned your game on, he made a great pass under heavy pressure right before the bomb that tied it up 10 10, so I was very impressed but did not see the first 3 quarters...
thing is, he is talented with a good arm and has good pocket sense. Not sure why he tightens up so much when he throws .. maybe it is partly Spack getting in his head about not turning it over because Spack like to lead with defense and run game. But we have history of difficulty getting consistent production from our QBs .. might be a Spack. Thing about Davis, last year he was a 4th year summer transfer who hadn't played in a game since HS He then got a 6th year medical RS granted by NCAA from a year at Memphis. So this is his 5th year and he has 1 more. If he ever learns to loosen up, I think we will see a lot more throws like Q4 against NIU.

xeyebrowx

Oh my goodness ... did I just go all Clenz on my coach and QB ????

xpeacex

[mvfcfan]

You didn't like when I referred to your QB as terrible a few weeks ago. xlolx

Honestly though he's average at best. Unless you are a Dakota school you pretty much have to find a good FBS transfer it seems. Fouch, Perish, and now Boyle have all been incoming FBS transfers for us. Roberson also worked out very well for you guys. It's just hard to recruit a good QB coming out of HS at our level.

[Birdman_]

I'm Kennesaw State skeptical. They lose a lot. I think they plow through the Big South easily and will be a playoff-caliber team by the time they make the playoff but if I'm a top 15 FCS or a low-tier FBS team I'm licking my chops for an early season game.

Furman's chances against Georgia State are higher than listed. Albany's are too high.

Also, Furman fans are, um, back.

The shots at "garbage schools" was a dead giveaway

Agree with this take. We’ll be more vulnerable early this season than we have been in two years. Think there’s potential to be quite a bit more dynamic on offense eventually though.

Interested to watch the Furman - Ga St game too. After a win like that, it can be challenging to come down from that high to focus on the task at hand.

[ASU33]

Only one scalp for Week 1. xsmhx

Week 2 list:

Friday
W&M at Virginia
Sacramento State at Sun Devils

Saturday
Kennesaw State at Kent State
Southern U at Memphis
Charleston Southern at Columbia Gamecocks (USC)
WCU at NC State
Fordham at Ball State
Tennessee Tech at Miami Redhawks
Richmond at BC
EIU at Hoosiers
Grambling at Louisiana Tech
SIU at UMass
WIU at Colorado State
Murray State at UGA
UNC at Wazzu
NCA&T at Duke
Gardner-Webb at ECU
Maine at Georgia Southern
Furman at Georgia State
EKU at Louisville
Tennessee State at MTSU
Yotes at Sooners
McNeese at Oklahoma State
Jackson State at South Alabama
UTM at Florida
Stony Brook at Utah State
Prairie View at Houston
NAU at Arizona Wildcats

Of all these games in Week 2, more than 5 scalps is going to be rare. I'll be happy with even 2. There were many, many missed opportunities in Week 1 2019, with a 1-39 record to show for the whole FCS. (Of the "ooh, so close" games, Wagner, Alabama State, SDSU, UNI, HBU, ISU red, UC Davis, Weber State were all winnable had luck been on their side.)

Southern at Memphis

[Panther88]

OU and UH may put up 150 pts between them.

Those folk (fans) think it's their magical 2016 year and are seriously pissed they were embarrassed by ou before a national audience. xlolx

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Not that anyone should be surprised...

Southern Illinois 31 UMass 13 7:35 3Q

[ysubigred]

Not that anyone should be surprised...

Southern Illinois 31 UMass 13 7:35 3QNice Goooooo Dawgs!

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Salukis are taking the Minutemen behind the woodshed...

SIU 38-13 13:08 4Q

[Schism55]

Big shout out to the Salukis!
I want my scalps, I need my scalps!

[marenlee]

Frustrating seeing the close calls. FCS teams need to finish those games.

[ysubigred]

SDU made Oklahoma punt nice[emoji106]

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[ysubigred]

FU FU FU FU [emoji848][emoji106]

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[bonarae]

Second FCS over FBS scalp was made earlier - SIU over UMass 45-20.

Is CFB in the Northeast as a whole on the decline? Or only Division I?

[SonuvaHenx2]

Well done SIU! A scalp is a scalp xbowx

[bonarae]

A few money games left in Week 3:

Chatty at UT Vols (yes, sir, Vols are 0-2 for the first time in almost 40 years)
Furman at VaTech
The Citadel at GT
Norfolk State at Coastal Carolina
Bethune-Cookman at Miami Hurricanes
SE Louisiana at Ole Miss
Cal Poly at Oregon State
Idaho State at Utah Utes
Idaho at Wyoming
S.C. State at USF
UNH at FIU
Weber State at Nevada Reno
Lamar at aTm
Murray State at Toledo
Northwestern State at LSU
Texas Southern at ULL
SEMO at Mizzou
Missouri State at Tulane
Portland State at Boise State
Griz at Ducks

[Panther88]

uofh kept their starting O (qb, rbs, wrs) & starting D in the game until ~6mins 4th qrtr.

They outlasted us 37-17. We had 2 TDs mysteriously called back (PR & wr pass).

On to Nicholls.

[bonarae]

One more scalp in Week #3.

Week 4 money games:

Morgan State at Army
Elon at Wake Forest
CCSU at Eastern Michigan
UCA at Hawaii
W&M at ECU
Wagner at FAU
Hampton at Liberty
SIU at Arkansas State
Sacramento State at Fresno State

Any more scalps? xchinscratchx

[ST_Lawson]

One more scalp in Week #3.

Week 4 money games:

Morgan State at Army
Elon at Wake Forest
CCSU at Eastern Michigan
UCA at Hawaii

Any more scalps? xchinscratchx

Looks pretty unlikely, at least next week.

Army is 2-1 and took Michigan to 2 OTs.
Wake Forest is 3-0, all against FBS teams.
Eastern Michigan is 2-1 and just beat Illinois today.
Hawaii is 2-1, all games against Pac 12 teams (only loss was to top 25 ranked Washington)

Elon and UCA are both pretty decent FCS teams, but we're not talking about going up against Western Kentucky or UMass....these are much better FBS teams.

[hktribefan]

W&M heads to ECU next week. We seem to have found something of an offense, and ECU looks not too hot.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Sitting Bull]

Will throw out a CAA version. Since 2000, CAA teams have 29 wins in FBS games. Only three years since 2000 didn't have a win, the last was 2014.

On this year's slate, odds are two wins based on 20 years of history. Here are the games:
UAlbany at Central Michigan
Stony Brook at Utah State
Maine at Georgia Southern
Maine at Liberty
UNH at Florida International
URI at Ohio
URI at Virginia Tech
Delaware at Pitt
Towson at Florida
Richmond at Boston College
JMU at West Virginia
Elon at Wake Forest
W&M at Virginia
W&M at East Carolina

Update on this one, the CAA is still looking for their first FBS win this year. The league has only had three seasons since 2000 where we didn't have at least one FBS victory.

The options left:
Maine at Liberty
URI at Virginia Tech
Delaware at Pitt
Towson at Florida
Elon at Wake
W&M at ECU

The two best shots left appear to be Maine or W&M. The others look doubtful.

if there is a chance of a huge surprise, I would pick the Towson game at Florida.

[ElCid]

Good listing of scalps over the years in this article. WE had a few lean years and a few fun years. For those not familiar, it may look weird in the first couple years because many of the current 1AA/FCS teams were still 1A/FBS teams. I love 1981 where a bunch of current FBS teams were FCS and beat FBS teams which are currently FCS teams (UCON over Holy Cross, UMASS over Dartmouth, etc.) Any way, it is a good history lesson.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/fcs-wins-vs-fbs-teams-all-time-victories-upsets

[LeadBolt]

Maine, W&M and UCA, in that order appear to be in the best position to gather another FBS scalp, imo.

[Sader87]

Good listing of scalps over the years in this article. WE had a few lean years and a few fun years. For those not familiar, it may look weird in the first couple years because many of the current 1AA/FCS teams were still 1A/FBS teams. I love 1981 where a bunch of current FBS teams were FCS and beat FBS teams which are currently FCS teams (UCON over Holy Cross, UMASS over Dartmouth, etc.) Any way, it is a good history lesson.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/fcs-wins-vs-fbs-teams-all-time-victories-upsets

LOL....I think we may have lost more scalps than anyone....8.

We also took a few....Army 3 times as a 1-AA team...nearly UConn a couple years back.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Maine, W&M and UCA, in that order appear to be in the best position to gather another FBS scalp, imo.

I give W&M a pretty realistic shot against ECU. The Pirates are still trying to find their way under Houston.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

LOL....I think we may have lost more scalps than anyone....8.

We also took a few....Army 3 times as a 1-AA team...nearly UConn a couple years back.

How about 1987 for the PL?
Holy Cross 34 Army 24
Colgate 22 Army 20
Lehigh 24 Navy 9

Hell would freeze over before that happened again. Like I said, the PL hurt more programs than just HC....

[skinny_uncle]

Good listing of scalps over the years in this article. WE had a few lean years and a few fun years. For those not familiar, it may look weird in the first couple years because many of the current 1AA/FCS teams were still 1A/FBS teams. I love 1981 where a bunch of current FBS teams were FCS and beat FBS teams which are currently FCS teams (UCON over Holy Cross, UMASS over Dartmouth, etc.) Any way, it is a good history lesson.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/fcs-wins-vs-fbs-teams-all-time-victories-upsets
They left out SIU over New Mexico State in 1983.

[ElCid]

They left out SIU over New Mexico State in 1983.

Yeah they jacked something up on a few of the games. They have Southern Ill as 1A in 1985. Pretty sure 83 was first year as 1AA. As well as Ill St. But I think they might have been later. Maybe 86. I know it was a period of flux and I am not sure when they reclassified. The Whole Southern Conf moved from 1A to 1AA for the 1982 season. They also list Wofford and Presbyterian as 1AA in 79 and 80 and they were both either NAIA or Div II. Somebody needs to have their research credentials revoked.

[ST_Lawson]

Yeah they jacked something up on a few of the games. They have Southern Ill as 1A in 1985. Pretty sure 83 was first year as 1AA. As well as Ill St. But I think they might have been later. Maybe 86. I know it was a period of flux and I am not sure when they reclassified. The Whole Southern Conf moved from 1A to 1AA for the 1982 season. They also list Wofford and Presbyterian as 1AA in 79 and 80 and they were both either NAIA or Div II. Somebody needs to have their research credentials revoked.

From the SIU Media Guide: "In just the program’s second season at the NCAA Division I-AA level, the Salukis finished 13-1 and claimed the I-AA National Championship."
So it looks like SIU was classifed as I-AA as of 1982.

Can't seem to find info for Illinois State, but it looks like it might have been 1980 based on what I'm seeing on wikipedia and in their media guide.

[NY Crusader 2010]

I give W&M a pretty realistic shot against ECU. The Pirates are still trying to find their way under Houston.

ECU would be middle-of-the-pack in the CAA this year. They got shredded by the Mids just as bad as we did.

I think ECU wins a close one thanks to home field. Going to say 30-27.

[BEAR]

If UCA hangs with Hawaii and keeps it respectable...they should earn a little respect. But it's in Hawaii and game time is 11 pm Arkansas time. That hurts. We're not expected to win against a team that was knocking on the door of the top 25 before last week but we will enjoy the game all the same. It's a paycheck game. Voters should look at it like that. But if we win...how awesome to have two FBS scalps by one team in the same year!

[ElCid]

If UCA hangs with Hawaii and keeps it respectable...they should earn a little respect. But it's in Hawaii and game time is 11 pm Arkansas time. That hurts. We're not expected to win against a team that was knocking on the door of the top 25 before last week but we will enjoy the game all the same. It's a paycheck game. Voters should look at it like that. But if we win...how awesome to have two FBS scalps by one team in the same year!

The only reason Hawaii does so well at home, is obvious. If a lot of teams played them over here, they would be dog poopoo most years. Think of the distraction factor for visiting teams. Probably the first time many of these kids have ever been over an ocean before.

Two scalps in same year is tough. First because you got to schedule 2 FBS and that doesn't happen often. Second, is, you got to win two fricking games. Winning one is hard, but two. I went back and combed through the list and I have only found 5 teams, (YSU did it 5 times) who have done it. I don't count Florida Atlantic in 2004 since they were transitioning to FBS. Also did not go back before 1982 because there were a lot of transitioning teams and it is hard to tell who was transitioning up or down. Safe to say that YSU pretty much owned the MAC back then.

Portland St - 2015 - Washington St and North Texas in that 66-7 blowout
NDSU - 2007 - Central Michigan and Minnesota
YSU - 1993 - Western Michigan and Akron
The Citadel - 1992 - Arkansas and Army
YSU - 1990 - E Michigan and Akron
YSU - 1989 - Akron and C Michigan
Arkansas St - 1988 - Akron and La Lafayette
YSU - 1987 - Bowling Green and Akron
YSU - 1984 - E Michigan and Cincinnati

[SCPALADIN]

The only reason Hawaii does so well at home, is obvious. If a lot of teams played them over here, they would be dog poopoo most years. Think of the distraction factor for visiting teams. Probably the first time many of these kids have ever been over an ocean before.

Two scalps in same year is tough. First because you got to schedule 2 FBS and that doesn't happen often. Second, is, you got to win two fricking games. Winning one is hard, but two. I went back and combed through the list and I have only found 5 teams, (YSU did it 5 times) who have done it. I don't count Florida Atlantic in 2004 since they were transitioning to FBS. Also did not go back before 1982 because there were a lot of transitioning teams and it is hard to tell who was transitioning up or down. Safe to say that YSU pretty much owned the MAC back then.

Portland St - 2015 - Washington St and North Texas in that 66-7 blowout
NDSU - 2007 - Central Michigan and Minnesota
YSU - 1993 - Western Michigan and Akron
The Citadel - 1992 - Arkansas and Army
YSU - 1990 - E Michigan and Akron
YSU - 1989 - Akron and C Michigan
Arkansas St - 1988 - Akron and La Lafayette
YSU - 1987 - Bowling Green and Akron
YSU - 1984 - E Michigan and Cincinnati

I'm fairly certain I attended four of these...exception in 1990 because of my own HS football schedule. One of those '87-89 games was a rare I-AA hosting a I-A opponent. I remember being on the Akron sidelines for it...the giant home stands in front with tiny HS bleachers behind us.

[BEAR]

The only reason Hawaii does so well at home, is obvious. If a lot of teams played them over here, they would be dog poopoo most years. Think of the distraction factor for visiting teams. Probably the first time many of these kids have ever been over an ocean before.



Most fans don't realize how much of a distraction going on a trip like this can be for players. Most Arkansas kids grew up pretty poor. They're getting an all expense paid trip to Hawaii. How amazing will it be to see the islands, visit the Pearl Harbor memorials, and explore the new cultures they encounter! Plus the time zone change is huge. A five hour difference may not seem like much but when the game kicks off it will be 11 p.m. UCA time in Arkansas. Plus add the fact Hawaii is FBS and pretty good...man it may be too much to overcome. xlolx But a win WOULD be nice....xlolx

Poor Supe may have to wait until Sunday to update his chart...xlolx

[aceinthehole]

CCSU - 29
Eastern Mich - 28

1:09 Q4

[aceinthehole]

I want to throw up and die. Heartbreaking loss.

EMU blocks a punt and returns it to for TD. Game over.

CCSU - 29
EMU - 34

Final
:(

[blackbeard]

I want to throw up and die. Heartbreaking loss.

EMU blocks a punt and returns it to for TD. Game over.

CCSU - 29
EMU - 34

Final
:(

Unbelievable way to lose that game, brutal. Great effort by CCSU

[JALMOND]

End 3rd

Fresno State 20
Sacramento State 12

[JALMOND]

12:08 left 4th, Sac State tied with Fresno 20-20

[JALMOND]

Final, Fresno does not get scalped.

Fresno State 34
Sacramento State 20

[bonarae]

A few more on the docket for Week 5:

Holy Cross at Syracuse
Delaware at Pitt
Towson at Florida
Nicholls at Texas State

[TheKingpin28]

-Nicholls should get a scalp
-If Towson can find a defense for next week, they will give Florida all they can handle.

[Ivytalk]

-Nicholls should get a scalp.
Agreed.

[Hood]

I don't know, guys, our defense has been quite porous against equal competition.

[ElCid]

I don't know, guys, our defense has been quite porous against equal competition.

Well, Massey has Texas St right between Cent Ark and KSU.....Nicholls is ten spots "higher." It's just a data point. Texas St just beat Ga St in 3OT at home. Basically, computers say your game is a push. "Some" people were bashing Furman for not beating Ga St.... I think you guys can do it, but as always, playing any FBS is hard. Beat them and you will be sniffing top 10.