Bracketology Week 11

[BisonTru]

My take:



Elon



Wofford
1. North Dakota St






SE Missouri St
8. Nicholls St


Western Illinois







Maine



Stony Brook
4. Colgate






Duquesne
5. James Madison


Towson







North Dakota



Northern Iowa
3. South Dakota St






Eastern Tenn St
6. Kennesaw St


Jacksonville St







San Diego



Weber St
7. UC Davis






Incarnate Word
2. Eastern Washington


Delaware







First Four Out:



Idaho St



Montana/Montana St Winner




Furman



North Carolina A&T

[BisonTru]

Nobowls http://www.nobowls.com/ :

http://www.nobowls.com/images/week11.png

[woffordgrad94]

I think if Furman wins against Mercer they are in.

[BisonTru]

College Sports Madness https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology :


Stony Brook/Duquesne @ 1. North Dakota St
Towson/Eastern Kentucky @ 8. James Madison

East Tenn St/Elon @ 5. South Dakota St
SE Missouri St/Montana St @ 4. Eastern Washington

Jacksonville St/Incarnate Word @ 3. Weber St
Maine/Delaware @ 6. Colgate

Nicholls St/San Diego @ 7. UC Davis
Wofford/ NC A&T @ 2. Kennesaw St

[BisonTru]

A couple from bisonville:

From NDSUStudent:
http://www.bisonville.com/forum/showthread.php?39713-Bracketology-4-0
I think the winner of ISUB/WIU and Montana/MSU get in. Not sure about UND, currently have them in but the committee might opt for a team like Furman instead.

Autobids:
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: KSU
CAA: Maine
MVFC: NDSU
NEC: Duquesne
OVC: JSU
PL: Colgate
PFL: San Diego
SoCon: ETSU
SLC: Nicholls State

The Field:
UND at Montana State vs 1. NDSU
Duquesne at SBU vs 8. Colgate


Elon at Wofford vs 4. KSU
ETSU at JSU vs 5. EWU


USD at Nicholls vs 3. WSU
Maine at Delaware vs 6. UC Davis


SEMO at ISUB vs 2. SDSU
NC A&T at Towson vs 7. JMU


At-Large: SDSU, EWU, JMU, UCD, SBU, Towson, Delaware, Wofford, Elon, Montana State, NC A&T, ISUB, SEMO and North Dakota

Bubble: WIU, Montana, Furman, Incarnate Word, UNI, McNeese St, Lamar, Monmouth, ACU


------------------------------------------------------------------
From ndsubison1:
ETSU at Elon vs 1. NDSU
Sacred Heart at Towson vs. 8. Colgate

Nicholls at Jacksonville St vs. 4. Kennesaw St
Wofford at James Madison vs. 5. Maine

SEMO at UNI vs. 3. SDSU
San Diego at Weber St vs. 6. UC-Davis

Monmouth at Delaware vs. 7. Stony Brook
Idaho St at Montana vs. 2. Eastern Washington

Notes:
Last weekend is always crazy. I have ISU beating Weber to get in. UND loses. JMU loses. Maine weak conference sched but committee may overlook that. I think a 6-5 MVC team gets in. UNI with wins over ISUR, SDSU, and ISUB, plus tough OOC sched. Monmouth sneaks in with weak bubble.

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

If ETSU takes on Elon, that would be the first meeting since our return. If Furman v. Mercer is known as the Lamb Bowl, then ETSU v. Elon would be known as the Paul Hamilton Bowl.

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

My take:



Elon



Wofford
1. North Dakota St






SE Missouri St
8. Nicholls St


Western Illinois







Maine



Stony Brook
4. Colgate






Duquesne
5. James Madison


Towson







North Dakota



Northern Iowa
3. South Dakota St






East Tenn St
6. Kennesaw St


Jacksonville St







San Diego



Weber St
7. UC Davis






Incarnate Word
2. Eastern Washington


Delaware







First Four Out:



Idaho St



Montana/Montana St Winner



Furman



North Carolina A&T





I dig this matchup as well. Hoping for a home game first round.

[WileECoyote06]

If Elon and A&T are first rounders, they will be paired with each other.

[Go...gate]

What if Colgate were to lose at West Point? Would that mean a first-round game hosting Stony Brook or Duquesne?

[BisonTru]

What if Colgate were to lose at West Point? Would that mean a first-round game hosting Stony Brook or Duquesne?

I believe Colgate will be seeded regardless of next weeks game. Personally that game will say a lot about how good this Colgate team is though. A close and respectable game but still a loss will be impressive yet.

[MTfan4life]

My take:



Elon



Wofford
1. North Dakota St






SE Missouri St
8. Nicholls St


Western Illinois







Maine



Stony Brook
4. Colgate






Duquesne
5. James Madison


Towson







North Dakota



Northern Iowa
3. South Dakota St






Eastern Tenn St
6. Kennesaw St


Jacksonville St







San Diego



Weber St
7. UC Davis






Incarnate Word
2. Eastern Washington


Delaware







First Four Out:



Idaho St



Montana/Montana St Winner



Furman



North Carolina A&T





Nicholls with an 8 seed ahead of other teams like Weber State, Delaware, Maine, and Stony Brook? Plus Incarnate Word getting into the playoffs with just 6 wins? I think a Valley or a CAA team could get in with 6 wins, but I don't know about a Southland team. Of course, the bubble is pretty weak this year, but IWU would have no wins against playoff teams in that field while the four teams on your first four out would all have at least one over a team in the field.

[Catatonic]

Nicholls with an 8 seed ahead of other teams like Weber State, Delaware, Maine, and Stony Brook? Plus Incarnate Word getting into the playoffs with just 6 wins? I think a Valley or a CAA team could get in with 6 wins, but I don't know about a Southland team. Of course, the bubble is pretty weak this year, but IWU would have no wins against playoff teams in that field while the four teams on your first four out would all have at least one over a team in the field.

I’d make a case for ACU over UIW if the Southland gets two bids. ACU will have 7 wins, including a W over a team in the playoff field (Nicholls) and a five game winning streak.

[WileECoyote06]

I believe Colgate will be seeded regardless of next weeks game. Personally that game will say a lot about how good this Colgate team is though. A close and respectable game but still a loss will be impressive yet.

Exactly. Do you recall if there been a team that was undefeated against FCS teams that was seeded lower than fourth?

[PaladinFan]

If Elon and A&T are first rounders, they will be paired with each other.

This bracket does not include Furman, but I think the Paladins are in with a win. It is more likely that A&T and Elon would be matched up with Furman and Wofford.

I think the committee will spare everyone a fourth Furman/Elon game in two seasons and pair them with Wofford.

[Professor Chaos]

I think SEMO is getting way too much love for their one good win (keep in mind that unless JSU beats Kennesaw then that one good win will have 0 good wins of their own). If JSU loses to Kennesaw I think SEMO should be out. Those EKU and Murray St losses look really bad to me. The only shot they have to get another win over a team with a winning record is if non-scholly Dayton wins this Saturday to get to 6-5. Their best win against a scholarship team after JSU is against 4-6 Austin Peay. I think they're about even with Monmouth at 8-3. They have a better win but they have much worse losses. Yet Monmouth seems barely worthy of mention in most of these projections and SEMO is in all of them. I just don't see it.

[Professor Chaos]

Exactly. Do you recall if there been a team that was undefeated against FCS teams that was seeded lower than fourth?
The Citadel was 6th in 2016 at 10-1 with only an FBS loss. That same year SHSU was 5th at 11-0 (didn't play an FBS). Of course the top of that bracket was loaded that year with NDSU at #1 at 10-1 (loss to SDSU - win against ranked FBS Iowa), EWU at #2 at 10-1 (only loss was at NDSU in OT - had win over Pac 12 Wazzu), JSU at #3 at 10-1 (only loss was FBS), and JMU at #4 at 10-1 (only loss was FBS).

The Patriot League is also much worse this year than either the SOCON or SLC was in 2016. But I do think Colgate should be seeded even if they lose to Army (unless they're obliterated by Army), perhaps as high or 4th or 5th.

[TheKingpin28]

Exactly. Do you recall if there been a team that was undefeated against FCS teams that was seeded lower than fourth?

Just saw PCs post. Nevermind.

Sent from my SM-J727V using Tapatalk

[FUBeAR]

I think SEMO is getting way too much love for their one good win (keep in mind that unless JSU beats Kennesaw then that one good win will have 0 good wins of their own). If JSU loses to Kennesaw I think SEMO should be out. Those EKU and Murray St losses look really bad to me. The only shot they have to get another win over a team with a winning record is if non-scholly Dayton wins this Saturday to get to 6-5. Their best win against a scholarship team after JSU is against 4-6 Austin Peay. I think they're about even with Monmouth at 8-3. They have a better win but they have much worse losses. Yet Monmouth seems barely worthy of mention in most of these projections and SEMO is in all of them. I just don't see it.
REALLY NICE ANALYSIS - some would scoff about using multiple levels of transitive properties, but without head-to-head, if we don’t use ‘transitive’ analysis, we’re left with mostly bogus subjective assessments, such as “Conference Reputation” & “the eye test.”

For example, UNI might pass the eye test & have the conference rep, but they just lost by 3 scores to YSU, who lost to 4-6 non-schollie Butler, who lost to 2-7 non-schollie Jacksonville, who SoCon also-ran, Mercer, completely dominated, 45-3.

Thanks again for the SEMO analysis. I, too, think that JaxSt vs. KSU game will be interesting & informative.

[Professor Chaos]

I guess since I'm throwing out criticism I'll add one of my own (This is as of right now - I'm not projecting what will happen next week):

Winner of East Tennesee St/Elon to #1 North Dakota St
Winner of Delaware/Duquesne to #8 Towson
Winner of Jacksonville St/Furman to #4 Kennesaw St
Winner of Stony Brook/Maine to #5 Colgate
Winner of Idaho St/San Diego to #2 Weber St
Winner of Wofford/North Carolina A&T to #7 UC Davis
Winner of Montana St/Nicholls to #3 Eastern Washington
Winner of James Madison/Indiana St to #6 South Dakota St

Last 4 in: Indiana St, Montana St, North Carolina A&T, Furman
First 4 out: Incarnate Word, North Dakota, Montana, Western Illinois

[maine612]

Interesting brackets. I am assuming that the bracket makers all assume Elon beats Maine. That is how they get in and how Maine has to go on the road in the first round. Is it reasonable to think Maine gets a first round bye if they beat Elon and win the CAA outright? Would be amazing to me if they got sent on the road to Stony Brook or Delaware as conference champs.

612

[Professor Chaos]

Interesting brackets. I am assuming that the bracket makers all assume Elon beats Maine. That is how they get in and how Maine has to go on the road in the first round. Is it reasonable to think Maine gets a first round bye if they beat Elon and win the CAA outright? Would be amazing to me if they got sent on the road to Stony Brook or Delaware as conference champs.

612
I'm starting to think Elon is in regardless. If Furman is in position to get in 6-4 then Elon certainly should be as well.

As far as Maine getting seeded it's going to be interesting. I think the winner of Towson/JMU get's seeded and then, unless there are upsets, I think there's 2 seeds from the MVFC, 3 from the Big Sky, Kennesaw St, and Colgate. That's 8 seeds which would leave Maine as the odd team out. I'd fully concede that they'd have an argument over Towson or JMU for that last seed, I just think either of those teams would have a stronger resume due to the fact that Maine missed 3 CAA heavy hitters this year (Delaware, Stony Brook, and JMU) due to the unbalanced conferenced schedule whereas Towson played all of them (JMU does miss Maine and Delaware). Once you're in the unseeded pool it doesn't matter how good of a season you had in comparison to your opponent as to whether you're at home or on the road. It's all about bids as far as who hosts.

I think Maine needs to be fans of teams like Jacksonville St and Idaho St this weekend if they want to get seeded.

[maine612]

I'm starting to think Elon is in regardless. If Furman is in position to get in 6-4 then Elon certainly should be as well.

As far as Maine getting seeded it's going to be interesting. I think the winner of Towson/JMU get's seeded and then, unless there are upsets, I think there's 2 seeds from the MVFC, 3 from the Big Sky, Kennesaw St, and Colgate. That's 8 seeds which would leave Maine as the odd team out. I'd fully concede that they'd have an argument over Towson or JMU for that last seed, I just think either of those teams would have a stronger resume due to the fact that Maine missed 3 CAA heavy hitters this year (Delaware, Stony Brook, and JMU) due to the unbalanced conferenced schedule whereas Towson played all of them (JMU does miss Maine and Delaware). Once you're in the unseeded pool it doesn't matter how good of a season you had in comparison to your opponent as to whether you're at home or on the road. It's all about bids as far as who hosts.

I think Maine needs to be fans of teams like Jacksonville St and Idaho St this weekend if they want to get seeded.

So Towson, who lost to Maine at home just last week, could get a home seed over Maine? I have to say that would be a tough pill to swallow. If its all about perceived strength, then why play the games at all. Maine beat Towson on the field. JMU is a different argument. At least I could see that one.

Thanks for the explanation on the other aspects. So if Maine is in the 9-24 pool, all bets are off. Makes sense.

612

[kalm]

I guess since I'm throwing out criticism I'll add one of my own (This is as of right now - I'm not projecting what will happen next week):

Winner of East Tennesee St/Elon to #1 North Dakota St
Winner of Delaware/Duquesne to #8 Towson
Winner of Jacksonville St/Furman to #4 Kennesaw St
Winner of Stony Brook/Maine to #5 Colgate
Winner of Idaho St/San Diego to #2 Weber St
Winner of Wofford/North Carolina A&T to #7 UC Davis
Winner of Montana St/Nicholls to #3 Eastern Washington
Winner of James Madison/Indiana St to #6 South Dakota St

Last 4 in: Indiana St, Montana St, North Carolina A&T, Furman
First 4 out: Incarnate Word, North Dakota, Montana, Western Illinois

Good work here from a trusted source. The only quibble I'd have is if Weber is the #2 they'd have beaten ISUo and you'd have the Bengals in at 6-5 with only 5 DI wins.

[Professor Chaos]

So Towson, who lost to Maine at home just last week, could get a home seed over Maine? I have to say that would be a tough pill to swallow. If its all about perceived strength, then why play the games at all. Maine beat Towson on the field. JMU is a different argument. At least I could see that one.

Thanks for the explanation on the other aspects. So if Maine is in the 9-24 pool, all bets are off. Makes sense.

612
I can understand your frustration but I look at it this way assuming they both win; Towson would have dominating wins over playoff teams Stony Brook and Elon along with that JMU win and no bad losses. Maine would have a win over Towson and FBS Western Kentucky along with a that win over Elon but they'd also have 2 bad losses. The CAA schedules were also super unbalanced between the two. Towson played JMU, Stony Brook, and Delaware who Maine all missed and instead played Rhode Island, UNH, and Richmond who Towson all missed.

Head-to-head matters but I feel like Towson had better wins and lacks those bad losses and that trumps head-to-head. Like I said, I concede the fact that there's an argument to be had there, I just feel like Towson has a better argument. I wouldn't be shocked to see the committee go either way.

[Professor Chaos]

Good work here from a trusted source. The only quibble I'd have is if Weber is the #2 they'd have beaten ISUo and you'd have the Bengals in at 6-5 with only 5 DI wins.
I'm projecting as they stand today so I'm probably taking kind of a liberty in the fact that I'm not abiding by the 6 D1 win requirement (which Furman and Indiana St don't have yet either as at-large teams in my field). That Weber St/Idaho St game will have implications no matter how it goes. If Weber St wins Idaho St is out which opens up a spot for someone like UIW or UND. If Idaho St wins Weber St might plummet completely out of the seeds (I'm really propping Weber up based on that EWU win right now - probably too much - I see them as virtually interchangeable at #2 and #3 so head-to-head breaks the tie).

[maine612]

I can understand your frustration but I look at it this way assuming they both win. Towson would have dominating wins over playoff teams Stony Brook and Elon along with that JMU win and no bad losses. Maine would have a win over Towson and FBS Western Kentucky along with a that win over Elon but they'd also have 2 bad losses. The CAA schedules were also super unbalanced between the two. Towson played JMU, Stony Brook, and Delaware who Maine all missed and instead played Rhode Island, UNH, and Richmond who Towson all missed.

Head-to-head matters but I feel like Towson had better wins and lacks those bad losses and that trumps head-to-head. Like I said, I concede the fact that there's an argument to be had there, I just feel like Towson has a better argument. I wouldn't be shocked to see the committee go either way.

Solid points. The only argument I have against that is the unbalanced schedule is a product of the schedule played. Going into the year, UNH was ranked 7th. We dominated them. Rhode Island was everyone's hot darling mid season and we beat them. The Yale loss with our backup QB was ugly....but Yale is pretty decent. No explanation for W&M. Bad day for sure. To assume Maine wouldn't have beat the other teams is flawed thinking. Anyway, really appreciate your thoughts. Will be interesting to see how things play out. Hopefully Maine beats Elon and the committee treats them well.

612

[Professor Chaos]

Solid points. The only argument I have against that is the unbalanced schedule is a product of the schedule played. Going into the year, UNH was ranked 7th. We dominated them. Rhode Island was everyone's hot darling mid season and we beat them. The Yale loss with our backup QB was ugly....but Yale is pretty decent. No explanation for W&M. Bad day for sure. To assume Maine wouldn't have beat the other teams is flawed thinking. Anyway, really appreciate your thoughts. Will be interesting to see how things play out. Hopefully Maine beats Elon and the committee treats them well.

612
Good points as well. The only quibble I would have is with the flawed thinking part about the unbalanced schedules. You may look at it as I'm being unfair towards Maine for playing a conference schedule they were given and had no control over (which I get that line of thinking) but put yourselves in Towson's shoes. They actually played that schedule and did pretty darn well with it so is it fair to them to assume that Maine would've done just as well? That question is rhetorical but my point is there's two ways of looking at it and both have their flaws. In a perfect world we wouldn't have these unbalanced conference schedules to cloud things up.

[kalm]

I'm projecting as they stand today so I'm probably taking kind of a liberty in the fact that I'm not abiding by the 6 D1 win requirement (which Furman and Indiana St don't have yet either as at-large teams in my field). That Weber St/Idaho St game will have implications no matter how it goes. If Weber St wins Idaho St is out which opens up a spot for someone like UIW or UND. If Idaho St wins Weber St might plummet completely out of the seeds (I'm really propping Weber up based on that EWU win right now - probably too much - I see them as virtually interchangeable at #2 and #3 so head-to-head breaks the tie).

Gotcha.

Weber and EWUvreally are a push. Working in EWU’s favor is no bad losses to Weber’s NAU loss, a much more decisive signature win, and EWU’s margin of victory which is off the charts where Weber has a bunch of single digit to 3 score wins with their biggest margin at 17 whereas EWU is averaging somewhere in the high 20’s to low 30’s. Don’t know if that’s enough to overcome though.

Going back to your Maine - Towson seeding point, does anyone remember when a team got seeded higher despite a H2H loss?

[TheKingpin28]

Gotcha.

Weber and EWUvreally are a push. Working in EWU’s favor is no bad losses to Weber’s NAU loss, a much more decisive signature win, and EWU’s margin of victory which is off the charts where Weber has a bunch of single digit to 3 score wins with their biggest margin at 17 whereas EWU is averaging somewhere in the high 20’s to low 30’s. Don’t know if that’s enough to overcome though.

Going back to your Maine - Towson seeding point, does anyone remember when a team got seeded higher despite a H2H loss?The dreaded 2016 season where NDSU lost to SDSU but NDSU was a 1 and SDSU was an 8. Both were 7-1 in conference play.

Sent from my SM-J727V using Tapatalk

[WileECoyote06]

This bracket does not include Furman, but I think the Paladins are in with a win. It is more likely that A&T and Elon would be matched up with Furman and Wofford.

I think the committee will spare everyone a fourth Furman/Elon game in two seasons and pair them with Wofford.

My opinion, but it seems like the committee matches first-round teams on proximity first, and then lets everything else fall into place. Also, Elon vs A&T can generate revenue; the game should easily get 10K+ in attendance at either stadium.

[Professor Chaos]

Gotcha.

Weber and EWUvreally are a push. Working in EWU’s favor is no bad losses to Weber’s NAU loss, a much more decisive signature win, and EWU’s margin of victory which is off the charts where Weber has a bunch of single digit to 3 score wins with their biggest margin at 17 whereas EWU is averaging somewhere in the high 20’s to low 30’s. Don’t know if that’s enough to overcome though.

Going back to your Maine - Towson seeding point, does anyone remember when a team got seeded higher despite a H2H loss?
It's happened a decent amount of times I think. Off the top of my head it's happened with NDSU and SDSU twice (2016 and 2017) but in both cases NDSU had a better W-L record (and in 2017 a better conference record as well).

I don't know if it's ever happened where both teams had the same overall record or when the lower/unseeded team had a better conference record.

[mainejeff]

I've resigned myself to the fact that Maine will be going on the road in the First Round (if they even make the field at all). It's a lesson learned for the coaches and players.....they need their heads in EVERY game. Every game counts!

If they are chosen I'd rather play at Delaware than at Stony Brook.....and I like the next round Colgate match-up if they won.

[ElCid]

The Citadel was 6th in 2016 at 10-1 with only an FBS loss. That same year SHSU was 5th at 11-0 (didn't play an FBS). Of course the top of that bracket was loaded that year with NDSU at #1 at 10-1 (loss to SDSU - win against ranked FBS Iowa), EWU at #2 at 10-1 (only loss was at NDSU in OT - had win over Pac 12 Wazzu), JSU at #3 at 10-1 (only loss was FBS), and JMU at #4 at 10-1 (only loss was FBS).

The Patriot League is also much worse this year than either the SOCON or SLC was in 2016. But I do think Colgate should be seeded even if they lose to Army (unless they're obliterated by Army), perhaps as high or 4th or 5th.

That is true about us being 6th in 2016, but our wins were all close and we were manhandled by UNC. Colgate had one close win the first game this year. Every other win was in seriously dominating fashion. Granted the Patriot is not the SOCON, but I think Colgate probably gets at least a 4 seed win or lose. Maybe not if they are blown out this week. Win, and it's a lock for 4, or better. Especially since the top of the field this year, besides the Bison, is not as loaded.

[ElCid]

So Towson, who lost to Maine at home just last week, could get a home seed over Maine? I have to say that would be a tough pill to swallow. If its all about perceived strength, then why play the games at all. Maine beat Towson on the field. JMU is a different argument. At least I could see that one.

Thanks for the explanation on the other aspects. So if Maine is in the 9-24 pool, all bets are off. Makes sense.

612

Maine still has those two, how should they be classified, questionable loses. One head to head game is not the deciding factor. The entire year needs to be looked at.

[kalm]

It's happened a decent amount of times I think. Off the top of my head it's happened with NDSU and SDSU twice (2016 and 2017) but in both cases NDSU had a better W-L record (and in 2017 a better conference record as well).

I don't know if it's ever happened where both teams had the same overall record or when the lower/unseeded team had a better conference record.

Thank you

[CappinHard]

It's going to be really interesting to see how the committee views SDSU, EWU, WSU, and KSU. As it sits now, I can see any combination of them being the 2-5 seeds.

[jmu007]

I don't understand why there are so many predictions that include a possible JMU vs Towson game in round 2. There is absolutely no way the committee lays it out that way with JMU and Delaware having not played this year. They literally play each other this coming weekend.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I don't understand why there are so many predictions that include a possible JMU vs Towson game in round 2. There is absolutely no way the committee lays it out that way with JMU and Delaware having not played this year. They literally play each other this coming weekend.

$$$$...they'd be smart to keep those two at home as long or as much as possible...

[jmu007]

$$$$...they'd be smart to keep those two at home as long or as much as possible...

Maybe, but both JMU and Delaware would have to be seeded for that to be a consideration.

[Professor Chaos]

I don't understand why there are so many predictions that include a possible JMU vs Towson game in round 2. There is absolutely no way the committee lays it out that way with JMU and Delaware having not played this year. They literally play each other this coming weekend.
You have a point if both Towson and Delaware are seeded. I think it's pretty unlikely that they both are seeded though so if they want a bus trip for JMU in the 2nd round they'd send them to whichever one is seeded. I think what Go Lehigh TU Owl is saying is that if both JMU and Delaware are unseeded they won't matchup them up in the first round since they both would bid high and draw well and there should be plenty of teams within bus distance of each so they wouldn't have to match them up.

[jmu007]

Since I'm complaining, here is my prediction of the top 8 seeds assuming a few results this upcoming Saturday and taking into account the politics I think will take place. I couldn't get Ms. Cleo to give me another question so I've got nothing on Round 1. You guys are smarter than me on the round 1 dynamics.

Top 8 Seeds
--
1. NDSU
2. EWU
3. Weber St.
4. UC Davis
5. SDSU
6. Colgate
7. JMU
8. Maine

xpopcornx

[FUGameBreaker]

Some of you guys putting SE MO St., WIU, UNI and North Dakota in over Furman are kidding yourselves


No doubt, Furman is in with a win against Mercer this Saturday xthumbsupx

[Catatonic]

Some of you guys putting SE MO St., WIU, UNI and North Dakota in over Furman are kidding yourselves


No doubt, Furman is in with a win against Mercer this Saturday xthumbsupx

If the selection committee weighs shameless self promotion heavily, Furman is a lock for one of the eight seeds. xnodx

[FUGameBreaker]

If the selection committee weighs shameless self promotion heavily, Furman is a look for one of the eight seeds. xnodx


xthumbsupx


And on resume alone certainly better than the likes of SE MO St., WIU, UNI, Incarnate Word and North Dakota

[woffordgrad94]

I’m not saying I always agree with everything he says but I actually give GameBreaker some credit for standing up for his team and refusing to back down. And I do think FU has a good shot at the playoffs with a win Saturday...the field just isn’t that strong and there’s not tons of great teams to choose from.

[FUGameBreaker]

I guess since I'm throwing out criticism I'll add one of my own (This is as of right now - I'm not projecting what will happen next week):

Winner of East Tennesee St/Elon to #1 North Dakota St
Winner of Delaware/Duquesne to #8 Towson
Winner of Jacksonville St/Furman to #4 Kennesaw St
Winner of Stony Brook/Maine to #5 Colgate
Winner of Idaho St/San Diego to #2 Weber St
Winner of Wofford/North Carolina A&T to #7 UC Davis
Winner of Montana St/Nicholls to #3 Eastern Washington
Winner of James Madison/Indiana St to #6 South Dakota St

Last 4 in: Indiana St, Montana St, North Carolina A&T, Furman
First 4 out: Incarnate Word, North Dakota, Montana, Western Illinois



This looks solid!

[maine612]

Since I'm complaining, here is my prediction of the top 8 seeds assuming a few results this upcoming Saturday and taking into account the politics I think will take place. I couldn't get Ms. Cleo to give me another question so I've got nothing on Round 1. You guys are smarter than me on the round 1 dynamics.

Top 8 Seeds
--
1. NDSU
2. EWU
3. Weber St.
4. UC Davis
5. SDSU
6. Colgate
7. JMU
8. Maine

xpopcornx

I'm good with this! Need JMU to beat Towson to take Tigers out of the seed mix. Maine needs to take care of Elon. Easy to justify both Maine and JMU with seeds at that point. Then, Maine gets a third round match at NDSU which would be excellent personally.

612

[Professor Chaos]

It's going to be really interesting to see how the committee views SDSU, EWU, WSU, and KSU. As it sits now, I can see any combination of them being the 2-5 seeds.
I don't see SDSU being in contention for the #2 as a few projections I've seen have them at. They've got kind of an ugly loss now against UNI and their best win is 6-4 Montana St or 6-4 Indiana St in OT. I think EWU and Weber St (if they beat Idaho St) are clearly above SDSU right now. I could see them maybe getting up to #3 if Weber St loses and, like you said, the committee doesn't buy the SOS or quality wins for Kennesaw St and Colgate. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that UC Davis even slides in front of SDSU (although I wouldn't agree with that). Assuming they beat USD I think #3-#7 is the range for SDSU.

[PaladinFan]

Gotcha.

Weber and EWUvreally are a push. Working in EWU’s favor is no bad losses to Weber’s NAU loss, a much more decisive signature win, and EWU’s margin of victory which is off the charts where Weber has a bunch of single digit to 3 score wins with their biggest margin at 17 whereas EWU is averaging somewhere in the high 20’s to low 30’s. Don’t know if that’s enough to overcome though.

Going back to your Maine - Towson seeding point, does anyone remember when a team got seeded higher despite a H2H loss?

One that jumps to mind is App State and Furman in 2005.

Furman beat App in the regular season and finished 9-2 with losses to Georgia Southern and a (still unexplained) loss to Western Carolina in week 2.

App State lost to Kansas, LSU, and Furman and ended up 8-3, but won the SoCon.

App was seeded 2nd and (of course) won the national title. Furman was unseeded and lost in the semi-finals in Boone.

UNI can claim they played in the national title game that season, but the nation's two best teams played that December afternoon in Kidd Brewer.

[FUGameBreaker]

I’m not saying I always agree with everything he says but I actually give GameBreaker some credit for standing up for his team and refusing to back down. And I do think FU has a good shot at the playoffs with a win Saturday...the field just isn’t that strong and there’s not tons of great teams to choose from.


Thank you dude xthumbsupx

[PurpleStreamers]

I'm good with this! Need JMU to beat Towson to take Tigers out of the seed mix. Maine needs to take care of Elon. Easy to justify both Maine and JMU with seeds at that point. Then, Maine gets a third round match at NDSU which would be excellent personally.

612

Yup, can definitely get the CAA two seeds in the 6-8 range justifiably. I just wonder if the committee is really going to give the Big Sky three seeds out of their potentially four bids??

[woffordgrad94]

I guess since I'm throwing out criticism I'll add one of my own (This is as of right now - I'm not projecting what will happen next week):

Winner of East Tennesee St/Elon to #1 North Dakota St
Winner of Delaware/Duquesne to #8 Towson
Winner of Jacksonville St/Furman to #4 Kennesaw St
Winner of Stony Brook/Maine to #5 Colgate
Winner of Idaho St/San Diego to #2 Weber St
Winner of Wofford/North Carolina A&T to #7 UC Davis
Winner of Montana St/Nicholls to #3 Eastern Washington
Winner of James Madison/Indiana St to #6 South Dakota St

Last 4 in: Indiana St, Montana St, North Carolina A&T, Furman
First 4 out: Incarnate Word, North Dakota, Montana, Western Illinois
Wow. Long second round trip would be on tap for Wofford or A&T...but still better than going back to Fargo.

[maine612]

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/fcs-rankings-power-poll-following-week-11-2018

At least in this one poll, Maine stands alone atop the best conference in the country. Ranked 8 overall (yes, behind JMU). That looks like a seed if we beat Elon. Gives me some hope at least.

612

[PaladinFan]

I’m not saying I always agree with everything he says but I actually give GameBreaker some credit for standing up for his team and refusing to back down. And I do think FU has a good shot at the playoffs with a win Saturday...the field just isn’t that strong and there’s not tons of great teams to choose from.

I know wins are wins and losses are losses, but Furman is one of the few teams that seems to be gaining momentum as the season wears on.

They also really don't have a bad or unexplained loss. They lost on the road to playoff bound ETSU. They dropped a game on the road to playoff bound Elon. They lost to Clemson.

The worst team Furman lost to was Samford, which is one of the bizarre storylines of the FCS season. Samford is the most talented team in the SoCon and beat all three of the SoCon teams vying for a bid. For whatever reason, they wet the bed against some of the lesser teams in the conference.

[Professor Chaos]

Wow. Long second round trip would be on tap for Wofford or A&T...but still better than going back to Fargo.
Yeah, with up to 5 seeded teams west of the Mississippi there's potentially going to be some long 2nd round trips for the visiting teams.

[Bison56]

Yeah, with up to 5 seeded teams west of the Mississippi there's potentially going to be some long 2nd round trips for the visiting teams.

I like the cross country match ups.

[PaladinFan]

Yeah, with up to 5 seeded teams west of the Mississippi there's potentially going to be some long 2nd round trips for the visiting teams.

It happens. I know they sent UTC to Weber a few years ago. Furman also had a first round game against Montana State in 2006.

Not common, but it may happen this go around.

- - - Updated - - -


I like the cross country match ups.

Of course, I don't think NDSU has actually played a road playoff game outside of the national title game.

[FUGameBreaker]

I know wins are wins and losses are losses, but Furman is one of the few teams that seems to be gaining momentum as the season wears on.

They also really don't have a bad or unexplained loss. They lost on the road to playoff bound ETSU. They dropped a game on the road to playoff bound Elon. They lost to Clemson.

The worst team Furman lost to was Samford, which is one of the bizarre storylines of the FCS season. Samford is the most talented team in the SoCon and beat all three of the SoCon teams vying for a bid. For whatever reason, they wet the bed against some of the lesser teams in the conference.



On top of that Furman did not have their starting QB in 3 of those 4 losses (as has been stated), I don't know if the committee cares about that, but we have been a different animal down the stretch here with Harris Roberts back healthy xthumbsupx Our 20 point win over Wofford with Roberts at the helm shows what this team is capable of.

[Professor Chaos]

Of course, I don't think NDSU has actually played a road playoff game outside of the national title game.
So you're saying you don't think NDSU has ever played a road playoff game? :D


FWIW, they did go on the road and beat Montana St in Bozeman in 2010 and nearly (or "should've" according to the little devil on my shoulder) beat eventual national champ EWU on the snowy pink turf a week after that.

[JSUSoutherner]

I guess since I'm throwing out criticism I'll add one of my own (This is as of right now - I'm not projecting what will happen next week):

Winner of East Tennesee St/Elon to #1 North Dakota St
Winner of Delaware/Duquesne to #8 Towson
Winner of Jacksonville St/Furman to #4 Kennesaw St
Winner of Stony Brook/Maine to #5 Colgate
Winner of Idaho St/San Diego to #2 Weber St
Winner of Wofford/North Carolina A&T to #7 UC Davis
Winner of Montana St/Nicholls to #3 Eastern Washington
Winner of James Madison/Indiana St to #6 South Dakota St

Last 4 in: Indiana St, Montana St, North Carolina A&T, Furman
First 4 out: Incarnate Word, North Dakota, Montana, Western Illinois

Oh boy. That would perfectly set up the Jax State Revenge Tour.

Furman> Kennesaw> Who cares > NDSU > Eastern Washington.

Could only be better if we pulled NC A&T for the quarters.

[PaladinFan]

So you're saying you don't think NDSU has ever played a road playoff game? :D


FWIW, they did go on the road and beat Montana St in Bozeman in 2010 and nearly (or "should've" according to the little devil on my shoulder) beat eventual national champ EWU on the snowy pink turf a week after that.

I'm sure it's happened; it is just amusing to see a NDSU fan (preemptively) say they like watching cross country matchups in the playoffs when their team hasn't played a road playoff game in nearly a decade.

[PaladinFan]

Oh boy. That would perfectly set up the Jax State Revenge Tour.

Furman> Kennesaw> Who cares > NDSU > Eastern Washington.

Could only be better if we pulled NC A&T for the quarters.

I remember well the last time JSU and Furman met up in the post season.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/recap?gameId=243320231

[FUGameBreaker]

I remember well the last time JSU and Furman met up in the post season.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/recap?gameId=243320231



I would love to face JSU in round 1, then winner to KSU makes sense for sure

What is JSU vs. Furman all time series, FU leads 3-0 correct?

[Bison56]

I'm sure it's happened; it is just amusing to see a NDSU fan (preemptively) say they like watching cross country matchups in the playoffs when their team hasn't played a road playoff game in nearly a decade.

What's amusing about wanting to see teams from across the country meet up? You enjoy regionalization? xcoffeex

[JSUSoutherner]

I remember well the last time JSU and Furman met up in the post season.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/recap?gameId=243320231

Yeah, Cap'n Jack had a special kind of talent.

[JSUSoutherner]

I would love to face JSU in round 1, then winner to KSU makes sense for sure

What is JSU vs. Furman all time series, FU leads 3-0 correct?
Indeed.

All during the Crowe era. Most recent win was Furman 17-13 in 2006.

[Professor Chaos]

Oh boy. That would perfectly set up the Jax State Revenge Tour.

Furman> Kennesaw> Who cares > NDSU > Eastern Washington.

Could only be better if we pulled NC A&T for the quarters.
https://media.giphy.com/media/evlucbwu52rn2/giphy.gif

[FUGameBreaker]

Indeed.

All during the Crowe era. Most recent win was Furman 17-13 in 2006.


Which means we are well due to get it on once more!

[JSUSoutherner]

https://media.giphy.com/media/evlucbwu52rn2/giphy.gif
Please hit the Closed Captioning button.

[JSUSoutherner]

Which means we are well due to get it on once more!

John Grass is 5-0 against the SoCon and 4-0 vs. SoCon Champs.

[PaladinFan]

What's amusing about wanting to see teams from across the country meet up? You enjoy regionalization? xcoffeex

I'd prefer that we go back to 16 teams and seed everyone or at least the top 4.

I think deciding whether some 6 win team that finished 6th in their conference gets in the playoffs is ridiculous. Drop the autobids, pick the 16 best teams, play it out.

- - - Updated - - -


John Grass is 5-0 against the SoCon and 4-0 vs. SoCon Champs.

You've cited that before, but aren't those all against the same team?

[JSUSoutherner]

I'd prefer that we go back to 16 teams and seed everyone or at least the top 4.

I think deciding whether some 6 win team that finished 6th in their conference gets in the playoffs is ridiculous. Drop the autobids, pick the 16 best teams, play it out.

- - - Updated - - -



You've cited that before, but aren't those all against the same team?
One is Samford.

It still looks better than if we went on a SoCon cupcake tear. Beating VMI, WCU, Mercer, ETSU, and the Citadel wouldn't carry any weight. Beating 4 SoCon champs does.

[FUGameBreaker]

One is Samford.

It still looks better than if we went on a SoCon cupcake tear. Beating VMI, WCU, Mercer, ETSU, and the Citadel wouldn't carry any weight. Beating 4 SoCon champs does.



And you guys have been very good under Grass, not NDSU good obviously, as nobody has, but very good regardless

[Grizalltheway]

Please hit the Closed Captioning button.
If you need it for that clip you're not worthy.

[Professor Chaos]

Please hit the Closed Captioning button.
You're going to make me feel old if you've never seen or heard of the greatest skit in the history of The Chappelle Show.

[JSUSoutherner]

And you guys have been very good with Grass as well, not NDSU good obviously, as nobody has, but very good regardless
I don't think anybody can hold a candle to what NDSU has done.

Sam Houston State is by far the second most successful team of this decade and they can't say **** to NDSU.

[JSUSoutherner]

You're going to make me feel old if you've never seen or heard of the greatest skit in the history of The Chappelle Show.

Would it make you feel old if I had never heard of the Chappelle show?

[cx500d]

Of course, I don't think NDSU has actually played a road playoff game outside of the national title game.

All you have to do is win to avoid going on the road. If your team can’t do that, that’s on them


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Professor Chaos]

Would it make you feel old if I had never heard of the Chappelle show?
Oh you poor guy... well if you have about 10 minutes and the ability to watch/listen to a couple NSFW youtube videos check it out:

Part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdVAH8Z5O90
Part 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddIz-ydl6Yk

Sadly both Rick James and Charlie Murphy are no longer with us.

[ETSUfan1]

Samford is the most talented team in the SoCon and beat all three of the SoCon teams vying for a bid.

Getting a little ahead of ourselves aren’t we?

[cx500d]

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/fcs-rankings-power-poll-following-week-11-2018

At least in this one poll, Maine stands alone atop the best conference in the country. Ranked 8 overall (yes, behind JMU). That looks like a seed if we beat Elon. Gives me some hope at least.

612

If you beat Elon it’s reasonable that you could get a seed. I hope you are 8 so you get a trip to Fargo


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[cx500d]

John Grass is 5-0 against the SoCon and 4-0 vs. SoCon Champs.

You are going to get your ass kicked this weekend


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JSUSoutherner]

Oh you poor guy... well if you have about 10 minutes and the ability to watch/listen to a couple NSFW youtube videos check it out:

Part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdVAH8Z5O90
Part 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddIz-ydl6Yk

Sadly both Rick James and Charlie Murphy are no longer with us.
The hell did I just watch? xlolx

[JSUSoutherner]

You are going to get your ass kicked this weekend


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah, unfortunately Kennesaw isn't a SoCon team.

[PaladinFan]

Getting a little ahead of ourselves aren’t we?

This is true. They haven't beaten ETSU yet.

I won't undersell ETSU, as they've showed a lot of pluck this season.

[Bison56]

Would it make you feel old if I had never heard of the Chappelle show?

You cannot be serious?

[FUGameBreaker]

Here is a question, assume Elon loses Saturday I would think they are still in, but does the committee take into account the fact that they now have back-ups at QB and RB that are not preforming to the same level as their starters were earlier in the year? Kind of like the NCAA basketball committee, or does that not matter in FCS ever?

[JSUSoutherner]

You cannot be serious?

I don't watch very much TV.

[Bison56]

I don't watch very much TV.

If JSU has another bad showing in the playoffs will coach Grass seat get hot?

[FUBeAR]

I know wins are wins and losses are losses, but Furman is one of the few teams that seems to be gaining momentum as the season wears on.

They also really don't have a bad or unexplained loss. They lost on the road to playoff bound ETSU. They dropped a game on the road to playoff bound Elon. They lost to Clemson.

The worst team Furman lost to was Samford, which is one of the bizarre storylines of the FCS season. Samford is the most talented team in the SoCon and beat all three of the SoCon teams vying for a bid. For whatever reason, they wet the bed against some of the lesser teams in the conference.

Objection! Assumes facts not yet in evidence.

[JSUSoutherner]

If JSU has another bad showing in the playoffs will coach Grass seat get hot?
It should, but it won't.

[FUBeAR]

On top of that Furman did not have their starting QB in 3 of those 4 losses (as has been stated), I don't know if the committee cares about that, but we have been a different animal down the stretch here with Harris Roberts back healthy xthumbsupx Our 20 point win over Wofford with Roberts at the helm shows what this team is capable of.
Ahhh...invoking the “Maine Clause,” I see. You know they may be CAA Champs & are a strong possibility for a Top 8 seed even though they lost by 3 scores to a middle-of-the-pack Ivy. But that loss shouldn’t count against them, I’m told, because their starting QB was out.

By that ‘exception,’ Mercer is 8-2 and should probably even get some extra ‘compensatory’ wins thrown on their record since they too lost to that same Ivy (by only 1 score though) without their starting QB, lost to Wofford with their backup QB playing the whole game on 1 leg, and were barely edged out by SoCon Champ ETSU with a 3rd Team Walk-on R-FR QB who didn’t even start for his HS Team.

So...Mercer will be getting their backup QB back soon...maybe even their Starter...and their Record is now an ‘adjusted’ 11-2 or 10-3, depending on the outcome of the Furman game.

Do they get a seed?

[I Bleed Purple]

It happens. I know they sent UTC to Weber a few years ago. Furman also had a first round game against Montana State in 2006.



Was the opposite.

[Reign of Terrier]

. Samford is the most talented team in the SoCon and beat all three of the SoCon teams vying for a bid. For whatever reason, they wet the bed against some of the lesser teams in the conference.


Objection! Assumes facts not yet in evidence.

Actually, this is the most substantiated facts in the Socon. Let's call it "Samfording" or "Getting Hatched."

Let's assume there are at least 4 teams in the last 3 years competing for a playoff spot.
2016:
Chattanooga, Wofford, Citadel, Samford
2017:
Samford, Western, Wofford, Furman
2018:
Wofford, Furman, Samford, ETSU

In 2016, All of the aforementioned teams had conference losses to the aforementioned teams...except Samford. Western Carolina lost to Mercer last year and that kept them out of the playoffs (which IMO was a bad call), but you could say that that Western team was the best of the last few years.

Meanwhile in *every* of the aforementioned years, Samford has lost at least one game to a team that was either in the middle or bottom tier of the Socon. Every. Year.

In 2016, it was ETSU. In 2017, it was Chattanooga. This year, it was pick your poison of any of the 3 middle tier teams in the socon.

At the same time, they, like other teams above have beaten teams consistently at the top, most notably Wofford. Samford has a longer win streak/percentage against Wofford in the last 7 years or so than App State or Georgia southern or Furman ever did while we've been in the Socon. Seriously.

Now, you may be reading this thinking YT is a butt hurt Wofford fan. I'm not. I hate that Samford only decides to play a good game against us every year, while ****ting the bed at least once against someone they should beat. I hate that I talk highly of Hodges, McKnight, etc in non-socon threads and people don't know what I'm talking about. Those are great players that will not get a playoff win.

But I actually think the socon would be perceived as much tougher had Samford had any semblence of consistency over this time. Think in 2016: 3 teams at 8-3 and 1 at 10-1 as opposed to 2 at 8-3, one in 7-4 and one at 10-1. In 2017, if Samford beats Chattanooga, they get the autobid and maybe, just maybe, Western Carolina gets a bid as that quality win looks better. And this year, if Samford shows up against Mercer, The Citadel, Chattanooga or just two of those three games, Samford is a playoff team.

Really, the Socon makes a lot of since in the last 3 years if you just factor into your analysis that Samford is a good team that doesn't show up against a team they should beat at least once a year. Everyone else plays predictably. Though they may not show up on some days, they still win. And that sucks for the Socon.

[FUBeAR]

Actually, this is the most substantiated facts in the Socon. Let's call it "Samfording" or "Getting Hatched."

Let's assume there are at least 4 teams in the last 3 years competing for a playoff spot.
2016:
Chattanooga, Wofford, Citadel, Samford
2017:
Samford, Western, Wofford, Furman
2018:
Wofford, Furman, Samford, ETSU

In 2016, All of the aforementioned teams had conference losses to the aforementioned teams...except Samford. Western Carolina lost to Mercer last year and that kept them out of the playoffs (which IMO was a bad call), but you could say that that Western team was the best of the last few years.

Meanwhile in *every* of the aforementioned years, Samford has lost at least one game to a team that was either in the middle or bottom tier of the Socon. Every. Year.

In 2016, it was ETSU. In 2017, it was Chattanooga. This year, it was pick your poison of any of the 3 middle tier teams in the socon.

At the same time, they, like other teams above have beaten teams consistently at the top, most notably Wofford. Samford has a longer win streak/percentage against Wofford in the last 7 years or so than App State or Georgia southern or Furman ever did while we've been in the Socon. Seriously.

Now, you may be reading this thinking YT is a butt hurt Wofford fan. I'm not. I hate that Samford only decides to play a good game against us every year, while ****ting the bed at least once against someone they should beat. I hate that I talk highly of Hodges, McKnight, etc in non-socon threads and people don't know what I'm talking about. Those are great players that will not get a playoff win.

But I actually think the socon would be perceived as much tougher had Samford had any semblence of consistency over this time. Think in 2016: 3 teams at 8-3 and 1 at 10-1 as opposed to 2 at 8-3, one in 7-4 and one at 10-1. In 2017, if Samford beats Chattanooga, they get the autobid and maybe, just maybe, Western Carolina gets a bid as that quality win looks better. And this year, if Samford shows up against Mercer, The Citadel, Chattanooga or just two of those three games, Samford is a playoff team.

Really, the Socon makes a lot of since in the last 3 years if you just factor into your analysis that Samford is a good team that doesn't show up against a team they should beat at least once a year. Everyone else plays predictably. Though they may not show up on some days, they still win. And that sucks for the Socon.
Since you quoted me, I’ll ‘splain my comment...

If Mercer beats Furman, Mercer will finish 3rd in the SoCon, tied with Furman or tied with Furman AND Samford and if we apply the SoCon AQ tiebreaker (or just look at head-to-head), it would be hard to say that Mercer isn’t CLEARLY the #3 Team. So, implying that Samford’s loss to Mercer (or to Chatt, for that matter, who could finish 4th) was to a SoCon ‘lesser team’ is not yet known. Particularly inappropriate to say yet as Furman would finish 5th (using the h2h tiebreaker) with a loss to Mercer and a Samford win over ETSU.

Need to wait a week to start sorting out who exactly are the “lesser Teams,” unless discussing WCU & VMI. They have locked up 8th & 9th. Samford WRECKED both of them.

[BisonTru]

Nicholls with an 8 seed ahead of other teams like Weber State, Delaware, Maine, and Stony Brook? Plus Incarnate Word getting into the playoffs with just 6 wins? I think a Valley or a CAA team could get in with 6 wins, but I don't know about a Southland team. Of course, the bubble is pretty weak this year, but IWU would have no wins against playoff teams in that field while the four teams on your first four out would all have at least one over a team in the field.

I initially had Wofford in the 8 spot, but changed it to Nicholls. I agree with you that some of those teams you listed have better resumes, but with the politics of the committee I feel there will be a push to get some other conference representation in the seeds. I also did that with SEMO, ETSU, and IW. There are teams mainly in the Big Sky I feel are better teams with better resumes, but I feel there will be a push to get a second team in from these mid major conferences.

I do feel in past years I was fairly confident in say 22 of 24 teams. This year I really wouldn't be shocked if I or many brackets miss 3 or 4.

[FUGameBreaker]

Makes sense for me to post this here as well:

Furman at 5-4 (Hoping to finish 6-4)(All D1 schedule)

Best win 7-3 Wofford (34-14)(currently ranked #15 AGS)
Second best win 6-4 UTC
Worst loss 5-5 Samford
Other tough loses @Clemson (FBS), @ETSU (#18 AGS) and @Elon (#14 AGS)
1 missed game due to Hurricane (vs. Colgate)(Out of our control, can't hold that game against this team)
Trying to win 6 of last 7 games

Still have a chance to tie for SoCon Championship with a win @Mercer and ETSU loss to Samford, which will help our chances as well xthumbsupx

[BisonTru]

Here is the AGS bracket.

All at larges are taken from the AGS poll and the seeds come from the poll.



East Tenn St



NC A&T
1. North Dakota St






Duquesne
8. James Madison


Towson







San Diego



Idaho St
4. Weber St






Elon
5. South Dakota St


Wofford







Furman



Jacksonville St
3. Kennesaw St






Maine
6. Colgate


Stony Brook







Incarnate Word



Indiana St
7. UC Davis






Nicholls St
2. Eastern Washington


Delaware







First Four Out:



Montana St



North Dakota



SEMO



Lamar

[FUGameBreaker]

Here is the AGS bracket.

All at larges are taken from the AGS poll and the seeds come from the poll.



East Tenn St



NC A&T
1. North Dakota St






Duquesne
8. James Madison


Towson







San Diego



Idaho St
4. Weber St






Elon
5. South Dakota St


Wofford







Furman



Jacksonville St
3. Kennesaw St






Maine
6. Colgate


Stony Brook







Incarnate Word



Indiana St
7. UC Davis






Nicholls St
2. Eastern Washington


Delaware







First Four Out:



Montana St



North Dakota



SEMO



Lamar








Sign me up xthumbsupx

[Reign of Terrier]

On socon tie breakers: according to media today, in the tiebreaker scenario, if it comes to that and Mercer scores 16, Furman gets the autobid by virtue of the head to head win against Wofford

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[FUGameBreaker]

On socon tie breakers: according to media today, in the tiebreaker scenario, if it comes to that and Mercer scores 16, Furman gets the autobid by virtue of the head to head win against Wofford

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk



Makes sense compared to a coin flip


Great, now we can give up 2 touchdowns and still take a knee late in the game on a kickoff at the 2 yard line to setup a Mercer safety like we did against ETSU and still get this AUTO! lol

[Go...gate]

I’m not saying I always agree with everything he says but I actually give GameBreaker some credit for standing up for his team and refusing to back down. And I do think FU has a good shot at the playoffs with a win Saturday...the field just isn’t that strong and there’s not tons of great teams to choose from.

Agreed. They deserve strong consideration.

[MSUBobcat]

Would it make you feel old if I had never heard of the Chappelle show?

That sucks, dude. You can't un-admit that. xembarrassedx

[Cocky]

I know wins are wins and losses are losses, but Furman is one of the few teams that seems to be gaining momentum as the season wears on.

They also really don't have a bad or unexplained loss. They lost on the road to playoff bound ETSU. They dropped a game on the road to playoff bound Elon. They lost to Clemson.

The worst team Furman lost to was Samford, which is one of the bizarre storylines of the FCS season. Samford is the most talented team in the SoCon and beat all three of the SoCon teams vying for a bid. For whatever reason, they wet the bed against some of the lesser teams in the conference.

Samford is very talented in a few spots and well below average in several others. The biggest problem for Samford is their coaching. Having bad coaching and being under talented in positions leaves opportunities for quality opposing coaches.

[SCPALADIN]

One that jumps to mind is App State and Furman in 2005.

Furman beat App in the regular season and finished 9-2 with losses to Georgia Southern and a (still unexplained) loss to Western Carolina in week 2.

App State lost to Kansas, LSU, and Furman and ended up 8-3, but won the SoCon.

App was seeded 2nd and (of course) won the national title. Furman was unseeded and lost in the semi-finals in Boone.

UNI can claim they played in the national title game that season, but the nation's two best teams played that December afternoon in Kidd Brewer.

Ingle Martin threw 5 INTs that game and Darius Fudge made our D-line look like a bunch of Pop Warner kids. It was a long drive home from Cullowhee.

[WestCoastAggie]

Here is the AGS bracket.

All at larges are taken from the AGS poll and the seeds come from the poll.



East Tenn St



NC A&T
1. North Dakota St






Duquesne
8. James Madison


Towson







San Diego



Idaho St
4. Weber St






Elon
5. South Dakota St


Wofford







Furman



Jacksonville St
3. Kennesaw St






Maine
6. Colgate


Stony Brook







Incarnate Word



Indiana St
7. UC Davis






Nicholls St
2. Eastern Washington


Delaware







First Four Out:



Montana St



North Dakota



SEMO



Lamar




It would be A&T’s luck this season to end up in NDSU’s quadrant.

[Professor]

If Elon and A&T are first rounders, they will be paired with each other.

I don't get why people keep missing that. Schools are 25 miles from each other. If we don't go there, We will go to Wofford. NCAA not going to send us 5 hrs away for a 1st round game

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't get why people keep missing that. Schools are 25 miles from each other. If we don't go there, We will go to Wofford. NCAA not going to send us 5 hrs away for a 1st round gameIf Furman and Wofford get in, I think it's more likely that they get sent to A&T/Elon. They're going to get sent somewhere and that's the most economic arrangement imo

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[semobison]

Actually, this is the most substantiated facts in the Socon. Let's call it "Samfording" or "Getting Hatched."

Let's assume there are at least 4 teams in the last 3 years competing for a playoff spot.
2016:
Chattanooga, Wofford, Citadel, Samford
2017:
Samford, Western, Wofford, Furman
2018:
Wofford, Furman, Samford, ETSU

In 2016, All of the aforementioned teams had conference losses to the aforementioned teams...except Samford. Western Carolina lost to Mercer last year and that kept them out of the playoffs (which IMO was a bad call), but you could say that that Western team was the best of the last few years.

Meanwhile in *every* of the aforementioned years, Samford has lost at least one game to a team that was either in the middle or bottom tier of the Socon. Every. Year.

In 2016, it was ETSU. In 2017, it was Chattanooga. This year, it was pick your poison of any of the 3 middle tier teams in the socon.

At the same time, they, like other teams above have beaten teams consistently at the top, most notably Wofford. Samford has a longer win streak/percentage against Wofford in the last 7 years or so than App State or Georgia southern or Furman ever did while we've been in the Socon. Seriously.

Now, you may be reading this thinking YT is a butt hurt Wofford fan. I'm not. I hate that Samford only decides to play a good game against us every year, while ****ting the bed at least once against someone they should beat. I hate that I talk highly of Hodges, McKnight, etc in non-socon threads and people don't know what I'm talking about. Those are great players that will not get a playoff win.

But I actually think the socon would be perceived as much tougher had Samford had any semblence of consistency over this time. Think in 2016: 3 teams at 8-3 and 1 at 10-1 as opposed to 2 at 8-3, one in 7-4 and one at 10-1. In 2017, if Samford beats Chattanooga, they get the autobid and maybe, just maybe, Western Carolina gets a bid as that quality win looks better. And this year, if Samford shows up against Mercer, The Citadel, Chattanooga or just two of those three games, Samford is a playoff team.

Really, the Socon makes a lot of since in the last 3 years if you just factor into your analysis that Samford is a good team that doesn't show up against a team they should beat at least once a year. Everyone else plays predictably. Though they may not show up on some days, they still win. And that sucks for the Socon.


You just described UNI. They look top five one week then get upset the next. It's called Farley'd up in the Valley!

[gofurman]

If Furman and Wofford get in, I think it's more likely that they get sent to A&T/Elon. They're going to get sent somewhere and that's the most economic arrangement imo

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

I could see this. It would not be right to send Furman to Wofford and AT/Elon. That makes the SoCon eliminate itself - better to send Furman to play NCAandT and Woff to play Elon. Woff and Furman - IF IF IF Furman gets in - should not play each other unless they have to

[Professor Chaos]

I don't get why people keep missing that. Schools are 25 miles from each other. If we don't go there, We will go to Wofford. NCAA not going to send us 5 hrs away for a 1st round game
They are close to each other but they're also within bus distance (400 miles) of ETSU, Wofford, and Furman and none of those teams can play each other in the 1st round since they all played a regular season conference game against each other. So in order to maximize bus trips you'll probably see Elon and A&T paired with those teams so they can get two several hundred mile bus trips instead of one 25 mile bus trip and then potentially need 2 flights for those SOCON teams.

[uni88]

Furman can claim they played in the 1985 national title game, but the nation's two best teams played that December in the UNI Dome.

True that! :D

[WestCoastAggie]

They are close to each other but they're also within bus distance (400 miles) of ETSU, Wofford, and Furman and none of those teams can play each other in the 1st round since they all played a regular season conference game against each other. So in order to maximize bus trips you'll probably see Elon and A&T paired with those teams so they can get two several hundred mile bus trips instead of one 25 mile bus trip and then potentially need 2 flights for those SOCON teams.

They could also have A&T and Elon have the winner fly out to Fargo or UC Davis while Wofford or Furman hang back in Kennesaw State’s quadrant.

With he lack of southern teams seeded likely, it will be interesting how they stack A&T, Elon, ETSU, Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State, Wofford and Furman (if they make it in).

You could throw Nicholls into that pairing too and seed them along with Kennesaw State, however, I don’t know if their resume warrants a top-8 seed.

[ksu_owls]

They could also have A&T and Elon have the winner fly out to Fargo or UC Davis while Wofford or Furman hang back in Kennesaw State’s quadrant.

With he lack of southern teams seeded likely, it will be interesting how they stack A&T, Elon, ETSU, Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State, Wofford and Furman (if they make it in).

You could throw Nicholls into that pairing too and seed them along with Kennesaw State, however, I don’t know if their resume warrants a top-8 seed.

I think KSU needs to beat JSU to guarantee a seed. Hopefully that won't be an issue. KSU held JSU under 100 yards passing and rushing last year (187 total). Their new qb may be good but I don't think he's enough to make up the difference against an improved Owls team.... we'll see Saturday.

[FUBeAR]

True that! :DBecause Furman leading until the final 10 seconds, when Tracy Ham shot a laser through every Furman Fans’ hearts proves how much better UNI was than FU? Hardly.

The awesome news is we can watch both of those amazing games...and be TREATED to hearing the legend, Larry Munson, calling the GaSou @ UNI game.

YOU make the call!
1985 FU > 1985 UNI or...
1985 UNI > 1985 FU?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lo92N0GKlIg


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAb8UqQwi28

[BEAR]

Not sure on this but I don't believe Incarnate Word will be the autobid if Nicholls wins this weekend due to the head to head. That means they would have to be the AT-LARGE if our conference has one. With an overall record of 6-4 they should be left out IMO. They had a good year but only played 10 games with barely a winning record. They chose to gamble on the Iowa State game and ditch the UNA game (Dec. 15)...and it failed. The Iowa State football website still has the game listed for Dec. 1st anyway. So I just don't see IWU making it in.

[FargoBison]

Not sure on this but I don't believe Incarnate Word will be the autobid if Nicholls wins this weekend due to the head to head. That means they would have to be the AT-LARGE if our conference has one. With an overall record of 6-4 they should be left out IMO. They had a good year but only played 10 games with barely a winning record. They chose to gamble on the Iowa State game and ditch the UNA game (Dec. 15)...and it failed. The Iowa State football website still has the game listed for Dec. 1st anyway. So I just don't see IWU making it in.

Yeah, I don't get the love for UIW at all. I can see excusing teams that have a 10 game schedule due to a weather issue but not because they straight up wanted a paycheck.

[katss07]

Not sure on this but I don't believe Incarnate Word will be the autobid if Nicholls wins this weekend due to the head to head. That means they would have to be the AT-LARGE if our conference has one. With an overall record of 6-4 they should be left out IMO. They had a good year but only played 10 games with barely a winning record. They chose to gamble on the Iowa State game and ditch the UNA game (Dec. 15)...and it failed. The Iowa State football website still has the game listed for Dec. 1st anyway. So I just don't see IWU making it in.
UIW will be one of the last four in or first four out (if Nicholls wins), I can almost guarantee that.

I think they get a lot of love because of their three wins over traditional powers in four weeks. We weren’t sure what we were getting from UIW early in the season. But after they tore apart McNeese they started getting some love. Obviously wins over an overrated Sam team and a rebuilding UCA team will help their case. A 6 win SLC team has gotten in before. If their only conference loses are to a hot Lamar team on the road and a likely conference champ, they should be in the conversation at least.

[JSUSoutherner]

I think KSU needs to beat JSU to guarantee a seed. Hopefully that won't be an issue. KSU held JSU under 100 yards passing and rushing last year (187 total). Their new qb may be good but I don't think he's enough to make up the difference against an improved Owls team.... we'll see Saturday.

If you guys shut us down it's because our OL. Our QB this year is in a different league from the guy we had last year.

[uni88]

Because Furman leading until the final 10 seconds, when Tracy Ham shot a laser through every Furman Fans’ hearts proves how much better UNI was than FU? Hardly.

The awesome news is we can watch both of those amazing games...and be TREATED to hearing the legend, Larry Munson, calling the GaSou @ UNI game. YOU make the call!

Both were great games and the point I was trying to make was that you can't really say that UNI/GaSo was the real Natty in 1985 just like you can't really say that Furman/Appy was the real Natty 20 years later.

[Go...gate]

LOVE those GaSo uniforms!

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

After finishing out the year without another dominating win Nicholls State should be a seed imo. I'd go so far to say a 5 or 6 seed. They're playing really good football right now.

[Schism55]

After finishing out the year without another dominating win Nicholls State should be a seed imo. I'd go so far to say a 5 or 6 seed. They're playing really good football right now.
Umm, say what meow? xeyebrowx

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

After finishing out the year without another dominating win Nicholls State should be a seed imo. I'd go so far to say a 5 or 6 seed. They're playing really good football right now.


They will not be seeded.

[kalm]

They will not be seeded.

You’re probably right but their resume is decent compared to Colgate, Kennesaw, and/or JSU. And some people have a 2nd CAA seed.

[Cocky]

You’re probably right but their resume is decent compared to Colgate, Kennesaw, and/or JSU. And some people have a 2nd CAA seed.

Decent compared to SDSU, UC Davis or any 2nd CAA.

[kalm]

Decent compared to SDSU, UC Davis or any 2nd CAA.

Except for the 7 and 8 sos's vs #45. And Davis played 2 FBS just like Nicholls.

[Daytripper]

You’re probably right but their resume is decent compared to Colgate, Kennesaw, and/or JSU. And some people have a 2nd CAA seed.

It may just depend on how the rest of the weekend plays out. But, FBS win v. Kansas, respectable loss at Tulane, only conference losses are early season to a then-ranked McNeese and a good ACU team.

[Professor Chaos]

It may just depend on how the rest of the weekend plays out. But, FBS win v. Kansas, respectable loss at Tulane, only conference losses are early season to a then-ranked McNeese and a good ACU team.
They'd need that KU win to carry a ton of water for them in the committee room to seed them over an 8-3 Maine/JMU/Towson, an 8-2 SDSU, or a 9-1 Colgate. Maybe if Weber and/or Kennesaw lost they'd have a better shot but I still don't think they'll stack up favorably to any 8-3 CAA team. Kansas is rated just below UNI by Sagarin and just below Stony Brook by Massey so I don't see it but I'm not on the committee either.