West Coast Seeds and Travel

[kalm]

If Weber, EWU, and Davis all finish 9-2 they are virtual locks for seeds, at least one top 4 and maybe a top 2. IIRC correctly, once a team has to be put on a plane, the distance is supposed to no longer matter although it seems in the past the committee has preferred to keep matchups as regionalized as possible - the Big sky has seen a number of MFVC and Southlands in the 2nd round and quarters compared to more Eastern conferences.

So what happens this year if these three teams hold serve in the final week? Also consider the possibility of the MFVC only getting 2 or 3 in the field and the SLC perhaps getting just one in. Further complicating things would be the CAA getting 6 in and having to stick them all somewhere.

Bottom line...there's a good chance of some first time matchups and unusual conference matchups between teams from across the country in the earlier rounds and I for one like it. xnodx

Might be an even longer evening than usual for the committee this time around.

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[TheKingpin28]

My seeds on how I see them going into the final week:

1: NDSU
2: EWU
3: KSU/WSU
4: KSU/WSU/SDSU
5: KSU/WSU/SDSU
6: UCD
7: JMU/Colgate
8: JMU/Colgate/Maine

[kalm]

My seeds on how I see them going into the final week:

1: NDSU
2: EWU
3: KSU/WSU
4: KSU/WSU/SDSU
5: KSU/WSU/SDSU
6: UCD
7: JMU/Colgate
8: JMU/Colgate/Maine

That's a good list. I think 2-5 are toss up based on some of the committee's decisions in the past.

[TheKingpin28]

That's a good list. I think 2-5 are toss up based on some of the committee's decisions in the past.

I could see Weber moving up to 2 but with EWU trouncing UC-Davis (yes EWU lost to WSU but IIRC, EWU lost Gubrud that game and it was a 14-6 game at WSU) I just don't see how WSU leaps EWU should EWU win next weekend. We have all seen what happens when logic goes out the window, (ISUr #2 and NDSU #3 when NDSU was clearly the better team in 2015) and the committee gets it wrong, but I feel like EWUs domination over UC-Davis looks better than WSU squeaking out a win at home against the Eagles.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

My seeds on how I see them going into the final week:

1: NDSU
2: EWU
3: KSU/WSU
4: KSU/WSU/SDSU
5: KSU/WSU/SDSU
6: UCD
7: JMU/Colgate
8: JMU/Colgate/Maine


My thoughts as of today:

1. NDSU
2. KSU
3. Weber
4. EWU
5. SDSU
6. Davis
7. JMU
8. Colgate

[katss07]

My thoughts as of today:

1. NDSU
2. KSU
3. Weber
4. EWU
5. SDSU
6. Davis
7. JMU
8. Colgate
I’m not sure the committee puts KSU up at 2. That would be quite the jump from the 6 spot they were in a few weeks ago. Maybe move them down to 4 and push Weber/EWU up a bit. Everything else looks possible and even likely.

[dewey]

My thoughts as of today:

1. NDSU
2. KSU
3. Weber
4. EWU
5. SDSU
6. Davis
7. JMU
8. Colgate

I am not sure about UC Davis being behind SDSU. UC Davis and SDSU both have losses to top 5 teams (granted UC Davis got whooped by EWU) but UC Davis has an FBS win and SDSU also has a meh loss to UNI.

IMHO UC Davis has the better resume than SDSU.

Dewey

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I am not sure about UC Davis being behind SDSU. UC Davis and SDSU both have losses to top 5 teams (granted UC Davis got whooped by EWU) but UC Davis has an FBS win and SDSU also has a meh loss to UNI.

IMHO UC Davis has the better resume than SDSU.

Dewey


Could be but Davis will be exposed come playoffs IMO. Who have they beaten? Poor 1-9 San Jose team, Montana, inconsistent Idaho State....?

Well see but they are a good offense with a mediocre to poor defense.

[dewey]

Could be but Davis will be exposed come playoffs IMO. Who have they beaten? Poor 1-9 San Jose team, Montana, inconsistent Idaho State....?

Well see but they are a good offense with a mediocre to poor defense.

You are potentially correct. I am just saying I think they have a better resume than SDSU. However I am pretty sure, haven't looked as I am deer hunting, SDSU has a better SOS.

Should be interesting next Sunday

Dewey

[kalm]

You are potentially correct. I am just saying I think they have a better resume than SDSU. However I am pretty sure, haven't looked as I am deer hunting, SDSU has a better SOS.

Should be interesting next Sunday

Dewey

Davis 8, SDSU is 6th. SDSU’s seeding depends on how the committee views the lost game. Ignore it and they could be the 2. It should knock them down to as low as a 5...no lower than a 6.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

You are potentially correct. I am just saying I think they have a better resume than SDSU. However I am pretty sure, haven't looked as I am deer hunting, SDSU has a better SOS.

Should be interesting next Sunday

Dewey


I think their resumes are a wash. For SDSU it will come down to what the committee thinks of their cancelled game against Iowa State. Their UNI loss is not looking too great now. But they could end up anywhere from #2 thru #7 or 8 IMO.

It will be interesting next Sunday for sure....xnodx

[Professor Chaos]

SDSU's seed may be hurt by the boatload of mediocrity in the MVFC this year. Their best wins are now Montana St and Indiana St and neither is terribly impressive. Does the committee reward SOS even if it's against a bunch of teams just on the outside of the playoff picture? We'll see.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

SDSU's seed may be hurt by the boatload of mediocrity in the MVFC this year. Their best wins are now Montana St and Indiana St and neither is terribly impressive. Does the committee reward SOS even if it's against a bunch of teams just on the outside of the playoff picture? We'll see.


True but watching many of these teams, SDSU if better than all of them.

If they are on the opposite side of NDSU, they will meet in Frisco IMO.

[Bisonwinagn]

My thoughts as of today:

1. NDSU
2. KSU
3. Weber
4. EWU
5. SDSU
6. Davis
7. JMU
8. Colgate

This is about right, but put JMU at 8 then the 4 best teams will all be in the same bracket.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

This is about right, but put JMU at 8 then the 4 best teams will all be in the same bracket.


I have a feeling one bracket is going to be a lot tougher than the other...just a thought.

[JayJ79]

I have a feeling one bracket is going to be a lot tougher than the other...just a thought.
next you'll be saying that the sun rises in the east.

[clawman]

IMO Easterns quality of wins and losses is better than Webers.
Easterns loss to Weber is better than their loss to NAU Both teams lost to a Pac-12 school, Eastern to a top 10 Washington State Cougars and Weber to unranked Utah.
Wins- Eastern dominates top 5 ranked UCD Weber beat the Eagles without our QB.
Eastern should get #2 seed, Ken. state #3 and Weber #4.

[Iridebikes]

IMO Easterns quality of wins and losses is better than Webers.
Easterns loss to Weber is better than their loss to NAU Both teams lost to a Pac-12 school, Eastern to a top 10 Washington State Cougars and Weber to unranked Utah.
Wins- Eastern dominates top 5 ranked UCD Weber beat the Eagles without our QB.
Eastern should get #2 seed, Ken. state #3 and Weber #4.

Pretty clear thinking to me but I'm a EAG

[apaladin]

I know Colgate has had a great year but do they deserve a seed by not even beating one team with a winning record? The teams they have beat have a combined 27-63 record if my math is correct.

[JacksFan40]

I know Colgate has had a great year but do they deserve a seed by not even beating one team with a .500 record?
They’ll get one I assume, a loss to Army won’t hurt them, and a win would be huge for them. They’ll get a seed but no higher than 6 unless they beat Army.

[JacksFan40]

True but watching many of these teams, SDSU if better than all of them.

If they are on the opposite side of NDSU, they will meet in Frisco IMO.
God I hope so, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see SDSU at 4/5.

[Herder]

MVFC deserves more teams. There’s a whole lot of wins at the bottom of the CAA and Big Sky compared to the Valley. How many teams in those two leagues have a lower sagarin than the lowest in the MVFC (MO State)?

Big Sky 7
CAA 3 (2more close)

Look harder. 6-5 (4-4) Valley should be an In.

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[kalm]

MVFC deserves more teams. There’s a whole lot of wins at the bottom of the CAA and Big Sky compared to the Valley. How many teams in those two leagues have a lower sagarin than the lowest in the MVFC (MO State)?

Big Sky 7
CAA 3 (2more close)

Look harder. 6-5 (4-4) Valley should be an In.

I'm not one of those who thinks the Missouri Valley is down. I think it's as good as ever at the very top and very bottom.

Perhaps you're right here and I'm not by any means a MVFC hater, but each conferences has its challenges.

For the Big Sky it's a lack of available OOC FCS games, travel, and conversely to your argument and depending on the season, a higher number of quality teams to go along with that year's bottom feeders. For example, in 2015 Eastern played 5 teams in conference who finished 6-5 or better including two playoff teams. In 2014 we played 1 team with 7 wins and 3 with 8, 2 of which were playoff teams. Those two seasons we played the likes of Washington, UNI, SHSU, Oregon, and Montana State OOC.

Teams with smaller stadiums like us in hard to reach geographic locations could complain their lack of gate prevents them from scheduling more favorably. We'd be at least a win better/season if we could schedule 6 home games and attract some Pioneers, SWAC's, and NEC's in September like Montana. We more than likely wouldn't have missed the playoffs in 2011, 2015, and 2017. But you know what, that excuse falls on deaf ears...believe me, I've tried it. :D

Yeah...your conference is great and has it hard when it comes to 6-5 teams getting in and regionalization. But to many other conferences, those would be ok problems to have. And FTR, I'd have a 6-5 MVFC in the field this year if I had a vote.

[Professor Chaos]

Another thing to keep in mind when it comes to seeding the Big Sky and CAA teams is how the unbalanced conference schedule in those leagues makes the conference W/L record kind of misleading.

Amongst the Big Sky seed contenders these are the conference teams that they missed. In parenthesis is each opponents rank in the current Big Sky standings (note that while UND is technically an Independent games against them do count in the Big Sky conference standings).
EWU: Idaho St (T4), UND (N/A), Montana (T5), NAU* (10), Sacramento St (13)
Weber St: UC Davis (T1), Montana (T5), Portland St (T7), Cal Poly* (T7), Idaho (9)
UC Davis: Weber St (T1), Montana St (T5), UND (N/A), Portland St (T7), Southern Utah (12)

*Weber St played Cal Poly and EWU played NAU as OOC games (each won)

UC Davis seems to have the edge there for easiest schedule missing Weber St, Montana St, and UND.


For the CAA:
Maine: Delaware (T2), JMU (T2), Stony Brook (T2)
Delaware: Maine (1), JMU (T2), W&M (7)
JMU: Maine (1), Delaware (T2), Albany (12)
Stony Brook: Maine (1), Elon (6), W&M (7)
Towson: Rhode Island (T8), UNH (T8), Richmond (T10)
Elon: Stony Brook (T2), W&M* (7), Villanova (T10), Albany (12)

*Elon/W&M was scheduled but was a hurricane cancellation

Maine seemed to benefit the most here and Towson the least. Stony Brook and Delaware also had it a bit easier each missing 2 of the top 6 (all playoff contenders) and getting each of the bottom 5.

[ElCid]

Another thing to keep in mind when it comes to seeding the Big Sky and CAA teams is how the unbalanced conference schedule in those leagues makes the conference W/L record kind of misleading.

Amongst the Big Sky seed contenders these are the conference teams that they missed. In parenthesis is each opponents rank in the current Big Sky standings (note that while UND is technically an Independent games against them do count in the Big Sky conference standings).
EWU: Idaho St (T4), UND (N/A), Montana (T5), NAU* (10), Sacramento St (13)
Weber St: UC Davis (T1), Montana (T5), Portland St (T7), Cal Poly* (T7), Idaho (9)
UC Davis: Weber St (T1), Montana St (T5), UND (N/A), Portland St (T7), Southern Utah (12)

*Weber St played Cal Poly and EWU played NAU as OOC games (each won)

UC Davis seems to have the edge there for easiest schedule missing Weber St, Montana St, and UND.


For the CAA:
Maine: Delaware (T2), JMU (T2), Stony Brook (T2)
Delaware: Maine (1), JMU (T2), W&M (7)
JMU: Maine (1), Delaware (T2), Albany (12)
Stony Brook: Maine (1), Elon (6), W&M (7)
Towson: Rhode Island (T8), UNH (T8), Richmond (T10)
Elon: Stony Brook (T2), W&M* (7), Villanova (T10), Albany (12)

*Elon/W&M was scheduled but was a hurricane cancellation

Maine seemed to benefit the most here and Towson the least. Stony Brook and Delaware also had it a bit easier each missing 2 of the top 6 (all playoff contenders) and getting each of the bottom 5.

This is a seriously good point I was pondering the last few days. The CAA and Big Sky, and to a lesser degree the MVFC, and Southland but the quality is a bit lower there at least recently, all have an advantage in that some teams do not face the entire gauntlet of ranked conf teams.

Scheduling can make a difference in the eye test W/L record and they can benefit from a good conf record while not facing the best a conf has to offer. It is what it is, and you have to dig down to see what the true conf SOS was, but it does give them a leg up when it comes to viewing their conf record. I know some teams in those conferences do draw the short straw and face the best teams. They usually get hosed, but not always and those teams are obviously very solid. The SOCON, of all the major Conferences, is the only one to not have this situation. We face every team, every year.

I may have to do some research and compare the schedules of some of the past playoff teams and what conference SOS they had and how it impacted their playoff performance.

It is an interesting topic.