AGS Top 25 - How They Fared Week 11 2018

[superman7515]

So have we pretty much guaranteed a 6-win team is getting in this year? Good luck with the polls this week!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1p52W2BC5BrcSJuCL1HPyijg0z2w9kC2qd8GzIXpKles/edit?usp=sharing

Still waiting on a few recaps and you know the deal, as long as you see the *** in the column header, those are last weeks numbers.

If you see any errors, please let me know.

[JSUSoutherner]

Thanks, Supe

[mainejeff]

My Top 15 would like this:

1. North Dakota State
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[ursus arctos horribilis]

My Top 15 would like this:

1. North Dakota State
-------

You are not a voter MJ. I wish you were. Regardless, I think it would be really good of you to follow the same sort of standards that the poll voters do and discuss without specificity so as not to make it seem like differing rules for different folks.

This may not be a known "rule" to you and possibly others so this may seem like I'm asking. That is not the case here just so I'm clear on this one. No hard feelings, I like the input, it just doesn't happen until after the actual poll is posted going forward so we can all remain friendly on this one.xthumbsupx

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Wow, looking at the results I am sort of stunned at the turmoil this late in the season...I'm not sure why but I am. Coming in to today I was talking to my brother and said basically UM has no chance, MSU might if they beat us next week. Better resume, easy pick up if they beat us. We beat them, both out was my thinking.

Right now, I think both teams are playing as good or better ball than at least 5 if not 10 in the T25. That may be homerish I know but I really try to never cave in to that as most of you know...I think.

I think MSU is a lock if they win. I think we have a legit shot if we do now.

I'm most shocked at the ISU Bengals, truly can't believe they lost that one but Cal Poly can put it on when they get it together...but still.

Sorry for the ramblings. xlolx

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Thank you supey.

[KPSUL]

Wow, looking at the results I am sort of stunned at the turmoil this late in the season...I'm not sure why but I am. Coming in to today I was talking to my brother and said basically UM has no chance, MSU might if they beat us next week. Better resume, easy pick up if they beat us. We beat them, both out was my thinking.

Right now, I think both teams are playing as good or better ball than at least 5 if not 10 in the T25. That may be homerish I know but I really try to never cave in to that as most of you know...I think.

I think MSU is a lock if they win. I think we have a legit shot if we do now.

I'm most shocked at the ISU Bengals, truly can't believe they lost that one but Cal Poly can put it on when they get it together...but still.

Sorry for the ramblings. xlolx

I'm having the same dilemma, very few teams are separating from the pack in most of the conferences and that includes the CAA, MVFC, Southland and SoCon. One of the things I do when I review Supe's spreadsheet and identify any team(s) that I feel should likely be dropped out of the Top 25 and then look at the ORV listing for suitable replacements. I then do a more detailed analysis of all the teams in consideration to determine what move I'll actually make. This week I'm seeing a lot more teams to drop out of the Top 25, than I'm finding ORV teams that warrant moving up. So your assessment of the MT and MSU is on target IMO. Most other things being equal, performance at the end of the season is a valid determinant, or tie breaker, for both ranking and playoff selection.

[van]

pretty sure that Princeton are the Tigers and not Bulldogs

[MR. CHICKEN]

My Top 15 would like this:

1. North Dakota State
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....AN' EVEN YOU.....LEFT MAINE.....OFF DUH LIST............BROCCO!

[mainejeff]

You are not a voter MJ. I wish you were. Regardless, I think it would be really good of you to follow the same sort of standards that the poll voters do and discuss without specificity so as not to make it seem like differing rules for different folks.

This may not be a known "rule" to you and possibly others so this may seem like I'm asking. That is not the case here just so I'm clear on this one. No hard feelings, I like the input, it just doesn't happen until after the actual poll is posted going forward so we can all remain friendly on this one.xthumbsupx

Sorry about that. So we are not allowed to discuss rankings of teams on this site until Monday afternoon? What about bracketology?

[kalm]

I'm having the same dilemma, very few teams are separating from the pack in most of the conferences and that includes the CAA, MVFC, Southland and SoCon. One of the things I do when I review Supe's spreadsheet and identify any team(s) that I feel should likely be dropped out of the Top 25 and then look at the ORV listing for suitable replacements. I then do a more detailed analysis of all the teams in consideration to determine what move I'll actually make. This week I'm seeing a lot more teams to drop out of the Top 25, than I'm finding ORV teams that warrant moving up. So your assessment of the MT and MSU is on target IMO. Most other things being equal, performance at the end of the season is a valid determinant, or tie breaker, for both ranking and playoff selection.

The CAA, SLC, and to a lesser extent, SoCon are tough to sort through this week. Hopping between Supe's fantastic spread sheet and team schedules for an hour to remember who beat who compared with SoS.

Thanks again Supe for the time and effort you put it. Invaluable. xbowx

[jmu007]

How I feel about each tier of my vote this week:

Top 6 - The National Champ will come from this group
7 - 25: CHAOS!!!!!

[maine612]

So have we pretty much guaranteed a 6-win team is getting in this year? Good luck with the polls this week!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1p52W2BC5BrcSJuCL1HPyijg0z2w9kC2qd8GzIXpKles/edit?usp=sharing

Still waiting on a few recaps and you know the deal, as long as you see the *** in the column header, those are last weeks numbers.


If you see any errors, please let me know.

Superman, I stop in this website every now and then over the years but just wanted to say I appreciate the work!

612

[dewey]

Sorry about that. So we are not allowed to discuss rankings of teams on this site until Monday afternoon? What about bracketology?

The way I understand the rules is that we can say for example;

I think team XX is top 20, top 5 etc. But not say team YY is #13 in my poll.

If I got that wrong someone correct me.

Dewey

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

How I feel about each tier of my vote this week:

Top 6 - The National Champ will come from this group
7 - 25: CHAOS!!!!!


NC will come from these 4 teams IMO

NDSU
SDSU
JMU
Weber

....and Weber is behind the 1st 3.

[maine612]

NC will come from these 4 teams IMO

NDSU
SDSU
JMU
Weber

....and Weber is behind the 1st 3.


What would the odds be in Vegas? I have watched most of the Bison games and I don't think anybody beats them. I have to imagine that Bison would be favored heavily versus the field in any betting scenario. It's fun being a Maine fan as every rung up the ladder is considered progress and is enjoyable.

612

[kdinva]

thank you, Man of steel...........voting will be fun again..........

[mainejeff]

NC will come from these 4 teams IMO

NDSU
SDSU
JMU
Weber

....and Weber is behind the 1st 3.

I think that Towson is a darkhorse. They will definitely upset someone.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

What would the odds be in Vegas? I have watched most of the Bison games and I don't think anybody beats them. I have to imagine that Bison would be favored heavily versus the field in any betting scenario. It's fun being a Maine fan as every rung up the ladder is considered progress and is enjoyable.

612


Having watched most of these teams multiple times now, SDSU would be the biggest threat to the Bison IMO.

Weber has the defense to slow down the Bison but their offense is not a threat to the Bison defense. JMU is down IMO. I've watched Maine 3 times now (thanks to Fox Sports package I have) and they are a good team....good defense. Maine's offense? Meh.

Now anything can happen on any given day but having potentially 3 home playoff games had historically been pretty nice for NDSU. New blood coming into the FD hasn't turned out too well for teams from other parts of the country.

[jmu007]

I think that Towson is a darkhorse. They will definitely upset someone.

They have the ability offensively, but their defense is a hot mess. Pretty sure they are near the bottom of the CAA in almost every defensive category. I would love to see a matchup between Towson and Kennesaw. First team to 60 points wins.

[dewey]

NC will come from these 4 teams IMO

NDSU
SDSU
JMU
Weber

....and Weber is behind the 1st 3.

I think you could also put Eastern Washington on that list.

Dewey

[Professor Chaos]

The top 5 in the CAA is a mess. Everyone has beat everyone else except for Maine hasn't gotten beat by anyone in the top 5 but they have the 2 of the uglier losses in the entire group and only play 1 of the other top 4 (they miss Delaware, JMU, and Stony Brook). I've got all 5 of them bunched together but the order is really splitting hairs.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I think you could also put Eastern Washington on that list.

Dewey


Ya, maybe but we'll see. I'm still not sold on their defense and if it is good enough to carry them to the NC. Their defense is better this year (#48 total defense and #19 in scoring defense) compared to years past.

[mainejeff]

The top 5 in the CAA is a mess. Everyone has beat everyone else except for Maine hasn't gotten beat by anyone in the top 5 but they have the 2 of the uglier losses in the entire group and only play 1 of the other top 4 (they miss Delaware, JMU, and Stony Brook). I've got all 5 of them bunched together but the order is really splitting hairs.

My unbiased opinion.....right now I give JMU the edge over the other 4. I know they are not playing the best but their talent is top level. After them I'd say that Maine, Stony Brook & Towson are almost a dead heat. Maine and Stony Brook have a terrific D. Towson has a terrific O. None of the 3 have been super consistent but all 3 seem to be peaking at the right time. I think that Maine and Towson can beat just about anyone on any given.....not sure that Stony Brook has enough O to put up enough points to win against top teams. Delaware would be #5 out of the 5 at this point. The Hens have the weakest resume along with Maine.

[maine612]

Having watched most of these teams multiple times now, SDSU would be the biggest threat to the Bison IMO.

Weber has the defense to slow down the Bison but their offense is not a threat to the Bison defense. JMU is down IMO. I've watched Maine 3 times now (thanks to Fox Sports package I have) and they are a good team....good defense. Maine's offense? Meh.

Now anything can happen on any given day but having potentially 3 home playoff games had historically been pretty nice for NDSU. New blood coming into the FD hasn't turned out too well for teams from other parts of the country.

Maine, barring some crazy series of events (multiple Bison injuries, referees assigned from Maine, natural disaster), won't beat NDSU.

[superman7515]

All of the links have been completed for games that ran late (thanks Northwestern for 3OT), computer rankings now reflect yesterday's games, and SOS is updated.

[Professor Chaos]

My unbiased opinion.....right now I give JMU the edge over the other 4. I know they are not playing the best but their talent is top level. After them I'd say that Maine, Stony Brook & Towson are almost a dead heat. Maine and Stony Brook have a terrific D. Towson has a terrific O. None of the 3 have been super consistent but all 3 seem to be peaking at the right time. I think that Maine and Towson can beat just about anyone on any given.....not sure that Stony Brook has enough O to put up enough points to win against top teams. Delaware would be #5 out of the 5 at this point. The Hens have the weakest resume along with Maine.
I'd agree that JMU seems to be the most talented but that hasn't exactly translated to on the field. I still like Towson the best just because they've dismantled two of the other top teams in Stony Brook and Elon (I really should include Elon in this group also although I have them slightly behind the rest) and have lost very close contests in their two top losses to Delaware and Maine. I also have Delaware at #5 in that group which just goes to show how close they all are since last week I had Delaware as my top CAA team.

[Cocky]

The National Champion will come from this group
NDSU
No one else appears close.

[mainejeff]

Maine, barring some crazy series of events (multiple Bison injuries, referees assigned from Maine, natural disaster), won't beat NDSU.

My biggest problem with Maine is that they haven't showed that they can put it all together for one complete game. O, D, play calling & discipline. Maine has more talent & depth than ever.....but they are still not playing at a Top 10 level. They ARE dangerous though!

[MR. CHICKEN]

My unbiased opinion.....right now I give JMU the edge over the other 4. I know they are not playing the best but their talent is top level. After them I'd say that Maine, Stony Brook & Towson are almost a dead heat. Maine and Stony Brook have a terrific D. Towson has a terrific O. None of the 3 have been super consistent but all 3 seem to be peaking at the right time. I think that Maine and Towson can beat just about anyone on any given.....not sure that Stony Brook has enough O to put up enough points to win against top teams. Delaware would be #5 out of the 5 at this point. The Hens have the weakest resume along with Maine.


......CURRENT STRENGTH O' SKED...........BRAWK!

ELON #11
TOWSON #16
STONY BROOK #18
DELAWARE#19
MAINE #26
JMU #27

[maine612]

My biggest problem with Maine is that they haven't showed that they can put it all together for one complete game. O, D, play calling & discipline. Maine has more talent & depth than ever.....but they are still not playing at a Top 10 level. They ARE dangerous though!

This week was close although Richmond is having a down year. This week, assuming Ferguson is ok, will be a great chance to pull it all together. They have a great D, the offense has playmakers and has shown flashes of brilliance, and they actually played this weekend mostly penalty free. Playcalling is still weird. But if they make it all happen Saturday versus Elon, the rest of the FCS field will take notice.

612

[caribbeanhen]

How I feel about each tier of my vote this week:

Top 6 - The National Champ will come from this group
7 - 25: CHAOS!!!!!


2-25 chaos, the Nat'l Champ is the outlier and it's not even close, I guess the only chance of the Bison being challenged is if they don't wake up from the sleepwalk in time and find themselves in a ball game

[mainejeff]

2-25 chaos, the Nat'l Champ is the outlier and it's not even close, I guess the only chance of the Bison being challenged is if they don't wake up from the sleepwalk in time and find themselves in a ball game

Q-Final could be their toughest game!

[MR. CHICKEN]

.....WOW!....COFFEE WHIFF DUH FELLAS.......xcoffeex.......BRAWK!

[caribbeanhen]

playoffs would be an open book this year but we still have a big problem with convincing Fargo to go play Alabama

[smilo]

I didn't want to do it, but too many teams lost. Have to put a 6-loss team in the top 25, and Massey tells me it's not crazy, so I won't seek validation here. I'll take it over the Big Sky/MVFC mediocrity with actual bad losses and few impressive wins to make up for it.

Now you know who to blame when you see that.

[Cocky]

The National Champion will come from this group
NDSU
No one else appears close.

Change my mind, my new group
NDSU
Princeton
Dartmouth
Tennessee Tech
VMI
Richmond

[dewey]

The National Champion will come from this group
NDSU
No one else appears close.

I like your thinkingxthumbsupx

Dewey

[dewey]

Q-Final could be their toughest game!

I think you are right. A Friday night semifinal, with the memories of 2016 still fresh, and a chance to punch the ticket to Frisco is a great motivator.

Dewey

[MR. CHICKEN]

I didn't want to do it, but too many teams lost. Have to put a 6-loss team in the top 25, and Massey tells me it's not crazy, so I won't seek validation here. I'll take it over the Big Sky/MVFC mediocrity with actual bad losses and few impressive wins to make up for it.

Now you know who to blame when you see that.

......MARTY.....HOW'D YA DO IT..........xconfusedxxdontknowxxconfusedx........ .....xbangx..........BRAWK!

[TheKingpin28]

I didn't think it was possible, but the CAA found a way to have 6 teams within 8 spots of each other. It seems like every week I comment how that was the hardest week I have ever had and once again, I was proven wrong with this week. xsmhx

[Drblankstare]

What a mess. You could put about anyone in those last 15 spots. The selection show is going to be a hell of a lot of fun

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

IMO Princeton is better than Colgate. I've watched both teams a lot this year and the Tigers are far more explosive on offensive. The Tigers defense clearly isn't as good but they've also played FAR better offenses than Colgate has. The Raiders are solid in all 3 phases but when you watch them play they just don't seem have to that extra gear on offense. This team isn't nearly as good as the 2003 team that had Brown at QB, Payton winner Branch at RB, Long at WR etc on offense.

I'd have the Tigers as a TD favorite on a neutral field.

[Kramden]

Thanks for your perspective. Too bad we won't see them play each other.

[JSUSoutherner]

Change my mind, my new group
NDSU
Princeton
Dartmouth
Tennessee Tech
VMI
Richmond

Just wait till Princeton goes all UCF and tries to claim a made up title.

[Catatonic]

The top 5 in the CAA is a mess. Everyone has beat everyone else except for Maine hasn't gotten beat by anyone in the top 5 but they have the 2 of the uglier losses in the entire group and only play 1 of the other top 4 (they miss Delaware, JMU, and Stony Brook). I've got all 5 of them bunched together but the order is really splitting hairs.

the same is true in the Southland. It’s had to make a case for any team in the SLC playing at an elite level but a bunch of schools are bunched together and beating each other at a 15-25 level.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Sorry about that. So we are not allowed to discuss rankings of teams on this site until Monday afternoon? What about bracketology?

We discuss. We don't post ballots or other rankings so as to have each person's list be their own and not be influenced into group think as much as we can avoid it. It is not know to everyone if they don't follow this closely all the time an are not a voter so I completely understand why you would have thrown it out there. We always have very good discussions even without posting what our feelings are on specific rankings.

Bracketology is similar but it's purely spit balling off of last weeks rankings with what happened to stregthen or detract this week. For the most part we all know the T5 or most of the time the T10 teams so it doesn't affect brackets too much but this year is a different case because it seems very up in the air outside of the T5.

[RootinFerDukes]

My 21-25 is a hot mess. Five teams who have no business being ranked, but due to a sheer lack of quality teams in the ORV section, they remain ranked anyways. Next week will show if they stay or go... I suppose.

[Mayville Bison]

Definitely was not happy when I hit submit this week.

#1 - pretty easy
#2-6 resumes very similar
1 undefeated team that is really hard to place
2 Ivy teams that probly shouldn't have voted for
JMU team that could be almost anywhere in a poll and be justified
8-20 include 6 CAA teams that don't want to differentiate themselves
21+ should not be ranked

I'm glad I'm not part of the playoff selection committee as this one was tough!

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Poll submitted.

I think Princeton and Dartmouth might be just as good as anyone not named NDSU. Just can't prove it....xchinscratchx

[dewey]

I didn't think it was possible, but the CAA found a way to have 6 teams within 8 spots of each other. It seems like every week I comment how that was the hardest week I have ever had and once again, I was proven wrong with this week. xsmhx

Trying to figure out the best order of the CAA teams is making my head hurtxbangx

Dewey

[Sycamore62]

The way the MVFC meat grinder is working this season NDSU better hope they don’t get the winner of ISUb and their opponent if it works out that way.

No not really

[MacThor]

The selection show is going to be a hell of a lot of fun

The selection show will be:
Bracket Reveal
Jay Walker Cliches
Coach Interview(s)
They all pick NDSU

[Catatonic]

Does anyone else use the Sagarin recency ranking as a source of information when you are trying to determine your poll? I want to know both how a team has done all year and whether they have gotten better over the course of the season.

[SUPharmacist]

Just wait till Princeton goes all UCF and tries to claim a made up title.
I know you are joking and that Princeton will not do this. However, if they were truly in the same situation as UCF last year and not allowed a chance to compete for a title I would have no issue if they did that. I would not view them as champions, but I think that was UCF's right when the real champs had lost a game and they were given no route to try and prove themselves. On the other hand, should Princeton try to claim a title while their league chooses not to participate in the playoffs I would be pissed (even if all evidence pointed to them truly being the best team).

[BurialGround]

They have the ability offensively, but their defense is a hot mess. Pretty sure they are near the bottom of the CAA in almost every defensive category. I would love to see a matchup between Towson and Kennesaw. First team to 60 points wins.

If we (KSU) get to 60, then we win by at least 30.

[Professor Chaos]

The selection show will be:
Bracket Reveal
Jay Walker Cliches
Coach Interview(s)
They all pick NDSU
Right, haha!

So the first 10-15 minutes of the selection show will be a lot of fun.

[FUBeAR]

I know you are joking and that Princeton will not do this. However, if they were truly in the same situation as UCF last year and not allowed a chance to compete for a title I would have no issue if they did that. I would not view them as champions, but I think that was UCF's right when the real champs had lost a game and they were given no route to try and prove themselves. On the other hand, should Princeton try to claim a title while their league chooses not to participate in the playoffs I would be pissed (even if all evidence pointed to them truly being the best team).Probably discussed ad nauseum elsewhere, but I wonder if the Ivy might ever consider something like the MEAC/SWAC with regard to the Playoffs - like it, in the sense that they participate, but they limit it...to preserve their ‘academics’ reasons for not participating. Let’s say they limited it to 1 Team / Year AND so that an individual IL Team could only participate in the Playoffs 1x every 4 years. So, if Princeton had not participated in the Playoffs since 2014, they would be eligible to accept a bid this year. If they had & Dartmouth hadn’t, then they could accept a bid. If they both had, and Penn hadn’t, and Penn beats Princeton on Sat, then maybe Penn is in. If no ‘eligible,’ quality Teams, then no Ivy Team in Playoffs.

It’s not ideal by any means, but surely these smart kids could handle a couple of extra weeks just 1 time in the 4 years in school, it preserves the Ivy’s ‘commitment’ to academics by being different than the other ‘lesser’ mercenaries that do play every year, and it keeps the IL ‘engaged’ in the full picture of the FCS. Sure, it would suck for the better Team(s) to not play in the Playoffs, while lesser ones do. But none are playing now, so it’s a net gain. Yes?