Playing with Bubbles

[JSUSoutherner]

This is a breakdown of likely # of at-larges per conference.

Auto-Bids (based off right now): 10 spots
Big Sky- UC Davis
Big South- Kennesaw
CAA- Delaware
MVFC- Ungulates
NEC- Sacred Heart
OVC- SEMO
Patriot- Colgate
Pioneer- San Diego
SoCon- ETSU
Southland- McNeese

Possible At- Larges: 14 spots

Big Sky: 3
Weber State
Eastern Washington
Idaho State

CAA: 5
Maine
Elon
JMU
Towson
Stony Brook

IND: 1
UND

MEAC: 1
NC A&T

MVFC: 5
WIU
UNI
SDSU
ISUr
ISUb

OVC: 1
Jax State

Southern: 3
Wofford
Samford
Furman

Southland: 1
Nicholls

At-larges Available: 14
At-larges Possible: 20

So, we’re five teams over capacity… or so it looks. Let’s look at a few things that could be bubble busters.

Weber State (7-2) @ Idaho State (6-3)-11/17
A Weber win here would knock Idaho State (they have a sub D1 win) out and would pretty much seal the deal for Weber State.

James Madison (6-3) @ Towson (6-3)- 11/17
This weekend JMU has a solid Rhody squad and Towson is playing Elon. Assuming they both win they loser of this matchup could get left at home, however, if one or both teams lose this weekend then this matchup will absolutely become a must-win game.

Delaware (7-2) @ Stony Brook (6-3)- 11/10
A win for Delaware here would guarantee a spot even if some magic voodoo keeps them from the auto. A 7-4 Stony Brook is probably in unless they get dump trucked and look bad against Albany. Losing to Delaware would by no means be a death sentence but the margin for error would shrink drastically for SB.

The UNDies (5-4)
7-4 is a possibility, yes, but the resume is pretty garbage. These guys are a long shot already and they have Portland State and NAU to finish the season. It’s going to take a whole helluva lot of bubble bursting to get these F’Hawkers into the postseason. That Idaho loss is going to loom large.

NC A&T (7-2) @ NCCU (4-4)- 11/17
Assuming FAMU and NCAT both win out FAMU will go to the Celebration Bowl and NCAT has a solid case for an at-large. There are two scenarios, however, where the MEAC loses their postseason representative entirely:
1.) FAMU drops a game and NC A&T goes to ATL. No way FAMU gets in at 7-4.
2.) NC A&T drops this game right here. (or the one this weekend vs. Savannah State, though I think that unlikely)

All the 5-4 MVFC teams. (WIU, UNI, ISUb, ISUr)
It’s a fact of life that MVFC fans are going to push for all of their 6-5 teams into the post season. I think a 7-4 MVFC is a lock but let’s take a look at what might happen should a team finish 6-5.

WIU:
Good Wins: UNI
The Leathernecks don’t have any ‘terrible’ losses but their resume is extremely meh.


1 score win over a horrid Youngstown team
Beat SIU by just 3
Lost to ISUr (which would be a deciding factor if WIU and ISUr both finish 6-5)
Beat a mediocre Griz team by 4 at home.

There’s nothing for the Leathernecks that I think the committee will look at and say “Wow, their record doesn’t represent how good this team actually is”
The Leathernecks last two are South Dakota and ISUb. If they drop one it HAS to be the game against ISUb and they have to be ISUb fans this weekend.

UNI:
Good Wins: ISUr and SDSU
UNI I could see going either way. Their last two are Youngstown and Missouri State, both of which aren’t pretty to lose to. UNI has the benefit of beating ISUr and they blanked ISUb so I think if it was UNI vs either of those two UNI will easily get the nod. The only real “negative” on UNI’s resume is that Montana loss.

ISUr vs ISUb- 11/10
Both of these teams have sub-D1 wins. Both MUST win out. End of story. I think ISUr’s resume would be more appealing than ISUb’s at the end of the season.

If I had to rank each team on likelihood to make at 6-5 with 5 being most likely and 1 being no chance:
UNI- 5
ISUr-4
WIU-3
ISUb-1.5

Ol’ Jax State (7-2)
I know, I know… “Who have they beat!?” The answer is nobody. However, whether you like it or not, the committee will look and think “Oh, they lost to three ranked teams, two of the losses they had a combined 9 turnovers, and wow look at that stat line vs. NC A&T”. A loss to Tennessee State this weekend is a death sentence though I think a respectable performance vs Kennesaw and this reputation coaches and Stats voters apparently think we have will get Jax State a ticket.

The SoCon
This conference is about as clear as mud on who will get in but I think how many is already fairly set. Should ETSU not be the Auto, they’re in. Furman will be 6-4 and I think that’s really going to be suspect. I think 1 at large is a lock and 2 is fairly likely barring chaos. SoCon is NOT getting 4 teams in. You ain’t the MVFC.

Nicholls State (6-3)
The Southland is NOT getting a 4 loss team in. Plain and simple. That leaves us with Nicholls. Because if McNeese loses the Auto they're staying at home and the Southland gets 1 team. Nicholls only “bad” loss is Abilene, but they have a P5 (no matter how bad, it’s a P5 win) and you could say the McNeese game was influenced by turnovers. Their only other loss is an FBS loss.



So I think based on the above, # of at larges per conference will look like this:
Big Sky: 2
Big South: 0
CAA: 4
MVFC: 3
Indy: 0
MEAC: 1
NEC: 0
OVC: 1
Patriot: lul
Pioneer: 0
SoCon: 2
Southland: 1

2+4+3+1+1+lul+2+1=14

Thoughts?

[Model Citizen]

I'm forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air,
They fly so high, nearly reach the sky,
Then like my dreams they fade and die

[JSUSoutherner]

I'm forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air,
They fly so high, nearly reach the sky,
Then like my dreams they fade and die
Touching.

[Mayville Bison]

I think you are pretty spot on. Only 3 possible differences (assuming A&T doesn't win the conference) is with the CAA, MVFC, and SoCon. If Samford or Furman wins the auto, then there are two at larges. If ETSU wins the auto, I think only Wofford gets in and the remaining spot goes to either the CAA or the MVFC.

[JSUSoutherner]

I think you are pretty spot on. Only 3 possible differences (assuming A&T doesn't win the conference) is with the CAA, MVFC, and SoCon. If Samford or Furman wins the auto, then there are two at larges. If ETSU wins the auto, I think only Wofford gets in and the remaining spot goes to either the CAA or the MVFC.

Yup. The SoCon will be the one to watch down the stretch. Plus, like I mentioned, McNeese and FAMU losing could open up spots as well.

[Bison56]

MVFC- Ungulates

Who is this?

[JSUSoutherner]

MVFC- Ungulates

Who is this?
Google it. You might learn something.

I'll give you a hint:
Rabbits, Penguins, Birds, Trees, Cats, Bears, and Dogs don't have hooves.

[JALMOND]

WIU has a loss to Montana State. Maybe not "terrible" but should be taken into account, especially if you think the Big Sky will only get 2 at-larges in.

[Gangtackle11]

Maine wins CAA if they win out.

[Reign of Terrier]

Seems about right

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[JSUSoutherner]

Maine wins CAA if they win out.
I wasn't sure about if they would or not. It shouldn't make a big difference for the At-larges though so I didn't really bother to look.

[FUBeAR]

Maine wins CAA if they win out.
So...in that event, is it fair to say that the best the CAA has is 3 scores worse than a middle of the pack Ivy League Team?

(asking for A LOT of friends)

[Professor Chaos]

Good stuff. From the MVFC or otherwise there will be no 6-5 teams in the field this year.

I think the Big Sky could snag an extra at-large as already has been mentioned and I still think that the CAA could end up with 5 at-large if the MVFC loses one to drop to 2 (which is possible if not likely). If any other spots open up (like with NC A&T) making it to the Celebration Bowl we might see an extra team from the SOCON or SLC as well but, if things go mostly to plan, I think you've got it pegged pretty well.

[ST_Lawson]

All the 5-4 MVFC teams. (WIU, UNI, ISUb, ISUr)
It’s a fact of life that MVFC fans are going to push for all of their 6-5 teams into the post season. I think a 7-4 MVFC is a lock but let’s take a look at what might happen should a team finish 6-5.

WIU:
Good Wins: UNI
The Leathernecks don’t have any ‘terrible’ losses but their resume is extremely meh.


1 score win over a horrid Youngstown team
Beat SIU by just 3
Lost to ISUr (which would be a deciding factor if WIU and ISUr both finish 6-5)
Beat a mediocre Griz team by 4 at home.

There’s nothing for the Leathernecks that I think the committee will look at and say “Wow, their record doesn’t represent how good this team actually is”
The Leathernecks last two are South Dakota and ISUb. If they drop one it HAS to be the game against ISUb and they have to be ISUb fans this weekend.

UNI:
Good Wins: ISUr and SDSU
UNI I could see going either way. Their last two are Youngstown and Missouri State, both of which aren’t pretty to lose to. UNI has the benefit of beating ISUr and they blanked ISUb so I think if it was UNI vs either of those two UNI will easily get the nod. The only real “negative” on UNI’s resume is that Montana loss.

ISUr vs ISUb- 11/10
Both of these teams have sub-D1 wins. Both MUST win out. End of story. I think ISUr’s resume would be more appealing than ISUb’s at the end of the season.

If I had to rank each team on likelihood to make at 6-5 with 5 being most likely and 1 being no chance:
UNI- 5
ISUr-4
WIU-3
ISUb-1.5

Decent breakdown of things, although I have to disagree with the thought of 6-5 MVFC teams getting into the playoffs. I think WIU is firmly in the "must win out" situation.
If we finish 7-4, I'm about 95% sure we're in.
If we finish 6-5, I'm about 95% sure we're out.

[JSUSoutherner]

Good stuff. From the MVFC or otherwise there will be no 6-5 teams in the field this year.

I think the Big Sky could snag an extra at-large as already has been mentioned and I still think that the CAA could end up with 5 at-large if the MVFC loses one to drop to 2 (which is possible if not likely). If any other spots open up (like with NC A&T) making it to the Celebration Bowl we might see an extra team from the SOCON or SLC as well but, if things go mostly to plan, I think you've got it pegged pretty well.

I think 6-5 UNI has a better case than a lot of 7-4 teams would. I was also counting ISUr in the "6-5" category because of the non-d1 though they would technically be 6-4. It wouldn't surprise me if one or both of them got in.

[JSUSoutherner]

Decent breakdown of things, although I have to disagree with the thought of 6-5 MVFC teams getting into the playoffs. I think WIU is firmly in the "must win out" situation.
If we finish 7-4, I'm about 95% sure we're in.
If we finish 6-5, I'm about 95% sure we're out.
Who is better? 7-4 McNeese or 6-5 WIU?

[Professor Chaos]

I think 6-5 UNI has a better case than a lot of 7-4 teams would. I was also counting ISUr in the "6-5" category because of the non-d1 though they would technically be 6-4. It wouldn't surprise me if one or both of them got in.
I see. I do think 6-4 against D1 ISUr has a shot and even 6-4 against D1 ISUb would have a shot. I still don't think 6-5 UNI would have much of a chance. They'd have to lose to either YSU or Missouri St to get there which would add to a pretty sketchy loss against Montana earlier in the year. If it would come to them vs say a 7-4 McNeese or a 7-4 Lamar or something like that you'd have a point but I think there would be better options out there than any of those teams.

[Sycamore62]

Decent breakdown of things, although I have to disagree with the thought of 6-5 MVFC teams getting into the playoffs. I think WIU is firmly in the "must win out" situation.
If we finish 7-4, I'm about 95% sure we're in.
If we finish 6-5, I'm about 95% sure we're out.

I have us at 0% 6-5 and 60% at 7-4

[ccd494]

So...in that event, is it fair to say that the best the CAA has is 3 scores worse than a middle of the pack Ivy League Team?

(asking for A LOT of friends)

If Maine is playing with its backup quarterback, sure.

[BisonTru]

I think 6-5 UNI has a better case than a lot of 7-4 teams would. I was also counting ISUr in the "6-5" category because of the non-d1 though they would technically be 6-4. It wouldn't surprise me if one or both of them got in.

Agreed. I've been saying this for years but 6 wins is the threshold that needs to be met to be considered. We always talk about 7 wins and that was the threshold years ago, but it isn't the case now. Once you are in consideration I believe the best resume gets in and we know win total is far from the only thing on a teams resume.

[wapiti]

If you are going to include the 5-4 MVFC teams then you will also need to include both Montana and Montana State in your list of bubble teams.
One of them will for sure be eliminated after Cat/griz though.



This is a breakdown of likely # of at-larges per conference.

Auto-Bids (based off right now): 10 spots
Big Sky- UC Davis
Big South- Kennesaw
CAA- Delaware
MVFC- Ungulates
NEC- Sacred Heart
OVC- SEMO
Patriot- Colgate
Pioneer- San Diego
SoCon- ETSU
Southland- McNeese

Possible At- Larges: 14 spots

Big Sky: 3
Weber State
Eastern Washington
Idaho State

CAA: 5
Maine
Elon
JMU
Towson
Stony Brook

IND: 1
UND

MEAC: 1
NC A&T

MVFC: 5
WIU
UNI
SDSU
ISUr
ISUb

OVC: 1
Jax State

Southern: 3
Wofford
Samford
Furman

Southland: 1
Nicholls

At-larges Available: 14
At-larges Possible: 20

So, we’re five teams over capacity… or so it looks. Let’s look at a few things that could be bubble busters.

Weber State (7-2) @ Idaho State (6-3)-11/17
A Weber win here would knock Idaho State (they have a sub D1 win) out and would pretty much seal the deal for Weber State.

James Madison (6-3) @ Towson (6-3)- 11/17
This weekend JMU has a solid Rhody squad and Towson is playing Elon. Assuming they both win they loser of this matchup could get left at home, however, if one or both teams lose this weekend then this matchup will absolutely become a must-win game.

Delaware (7-2) @ Stony Brook (6-3)- 11/10
A win for Delaware here would guarantee a spot even if some magic voodoo keeps them from the auto. A 7-4 Stony Brook is probably in unless they get dump trucked and look bad against Albany. Losing to Delaware would by no means be a death sentence but the margin for error would shrink drastically for SB.

The UNDies (5-4)
7-4 is a possibility, yes, but the resume is pretty garbage. These guys are a long shot already and they have Portland State and NAU to finish the season. It’s going to take a whole helluva lot of bubble bursting to get these F’Hawkers into the postseason. That Idaho loss is going to loom large.

NC A&T (7-2) @ NCCU (4-4)- 11/17
Assuming FAMU and NCAT both win out FAMU will go to the Celebration Bowl and NCAT has a solid case for an at-large. There are two scenarios, however, where the MEAC loses their postseason representative entirely:
1.) FAMU drops a game and NC A&T goes to ATL. No way FAMU gets in at 7-4.
2.) NC A&T drops this game right here. (or the one this weekend vs. Savannah State, though I think that unlikely)

All the 5-4 MVFC teams. (WIU, UNI, ISUb, ISUr)
It’s a fact of life that MVFC fans are going to push for all of their 6-5 teams into the post season. I think a 7-4 MVFC is a lock but let’s take a look at what might happen should a team finish 6-5.

WIU:
Good Wins: UNI
The Leathernecks don’t have any ‘terrible’ losses but their resume is extremely meh.


1 score win over a horrid Youngstown team
Beat SIU by just 3
Lost to ISUr (which would be a deciding factor if WIU and ISUr both finish 6-5)
Beat a mediocre Griz team by 4 at home.

There’s nothing for the Leathernecks that I think the committee will look at and say “Wow, their record doesn’t represent how good this team actually is”
The Leathernecks last two are South Dakota and ISUb. If they drop one it HAS to be the game against ISUb and they have to be ISUb fans this weekend.

UNI:
Good Wins: ISUr and SDSU
UNI I could see going either way. Their last two are Youngstown and Missouri State, both of which aren’t pretty to lose to. UNI has the benefit of beating ISUr and they blanked ISUb so I think if it was UNI vs either of those two UNI will easily get the nod. The only real “negative” on UNI’s resume is that Montana loss.

ISUr vs ISUb- 11/10
Both of these teams have sub-D1 wins. Both MUST win out. End of story. I think ISUr’s resume would be more appealing than ISUb’s at the end of the season.

If I had to rank each team on likelihood to make at 6-5 with 5 being most likely and 1 being no chance:
UNI- 5
ISUr-4
WIU-3
ISUb-1.5

Ol’ Jax State (7-2)
I know, I know… “Who have they beat!?” The answer is nobody. However, whether you like it or not, the committee will look and think “Oh, they lost to three ranked teams, two of the losses they had a combined 9 turnovers, and wow look at that stat line vs. NC A&T”. A loss to Tennessee State this weekend is a death sentence though I think a respectable performance vs Kennesaw and this reputation coaches and Stats voters apparently think we have will get Jax State a ticket.

The SoCon
This conference is about as clear as mud on who will get in but I think how many is already fairly set. Should ETSU not be the Auto, they’re in. Furman will be 6-4 and I think that’s really going to be suspect. I think 1 at large is a lock and 2 is fairly likely barring chaos. SoCon is NOT getting 4 teams in. You ain’t the MVFC.

Nicholls State (6-3)
The Southland is NOT getting a 4 loss team in. Plain and simple. That leaves us with Nicholls. Because if McNeese loses the Auto they're staying at home and the Southland gets 1 team. Nicholls only “bad” loss is Abilene, but they have a P5 (no matter how bad, it’s a P5 win) and you could say the McNeese game was influenced by turnovers. Their only other loss is an FBS loss.



So I think based on the above, # of at larges per conference will look like this:
Big Sky: 2
Big South: 0
CAA: 4
MVFC: 3
Indy: 0
MEAC: 1
NEC: 0
OVC: 1
Patriot: lul
Pioneer: 0
SoCon: 2
Southland: 1

2+4+3+1+1+lul+2+1=14

Thoughts?

[JSUSoutherner]

If you are going to include the 5-4 MVFC teams then you will also need to include both Montana and Montana State in your list of bubble teams.
One of them will for sure be eliminated after Cat/griz though.
I don't think a 4 loss Montana or MNST gets in. Both of their "big" wins came wayyy early in the season and they haven't done much since.

7-4 Big Sky teams haven't had much luck getting in lately.

See: EWU 2017 and UND 2015

[ST_Lawson]

I have us at 0% 6-5 and 60% at 7-4

That's valid considering the DII win. 7-4 is 6-4 against DI. I think Illinois State is in a little better shape...they had a NAIA win, but they also had an FBS win (crap team, but still FBS), so if they finish 6-4 against DI, I think they have a leg up on you guys. It won't really come down to a decision between the ISU's though, because one will lose on Saturday and the winner will still have a shot.

[WestCoastAggie]

Should UIW and Lamar be on this bubble list? What about Chatty?

[JSUSoutherner]

Should UIW and Lamar be on this bubble list? What about Chatty?

No.

[TheKingpin28]

I don't think a 4 loss Montana or MNST gets in. Both of their "big" wins came wayyy early in the season and they haven't done much since.

7-4 Big Sky teams haven't had much luck getting in lately.

See: EWU 2017 and UND 2015IIRC the committee cares about how you are trending at the end of the season not the beginning. They want teams who are not sliding into November (YSU and pick the Eric W years) but surging into November.

Sent from my SM-J727V using Tapatalk

[dbackjon]

WIU has a loss to Montana State. Maybe not "terrible" but should be taken into account, especially if you think the Big Sky will only get 2 at-larges in.

Montana State is 5-4.

Left: Home vs UNC, @Montana. 7-4 MSU gets in.

[JSUSoutherner]

IIRC the committee cares about how you are trending at the end of the season not the beginning. They want teams who are not sliding into November (YSU and pick the Eric W years) but surging into November.

Sent from my SM-J727V using Tapatalk

Well the current trend for both of them can be summed up in one sentence:

The only win between the two of them since September is Idaho.

[TheKingpin28]

Well the current trend for both of them can be summed up in one sentence:

The only win between the two of them since September is Idaho.That's bad.

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[fmftballmgr]

Ol’ Jax State (7-2)
I know, I know… “Who have they beat!?” The answer is nobody. However, whether you like it or not, the committee will look and think “Oh, they lost to three ranked teams, two of the losses they had a combined 9 turnovers, and wow look at that stat line vs. NC A&T”. A loss to Tennessee State this weekend is a death sentence though I think a respectable performance vs Kennesaw and this reputation coaches and Stats voters apparently think we have will get Jax State a ticket.




After last week this is the route you all are going to have to go cause right now I have no faith that we are going to take care of SEMO for you. I have no idea which team is going to show up. The team that started 4-0 in conference or the team that has went 0-2 since and losing to a winless TTU team.

[ST_Lawson]

Who is better? 7-4 McNeese or 6-5 WIU?

Tough call for me. 7-4 against 55th toughest schedule (SoS via Massey) or 6-5 against 3rd toughest.
WIU's best win is UNI, worst loss would be whoever we lost one of the last two to (we'd have to drop one to be 6-5), between Indiana State and South Dakota.
McNeese has a win over a decent Nicholls State team, but a loss to 4-6 SE Louisiana (or Northwestern State if that's who their last loss is)

I don't know about who's better, but I think that neither of those teams (if those are their final records) are in the playoffs.

[FUBeAR]

If Maine is playing with its backup quarterback, sure.Ahhh, as Furman did in 3 of their 4 losses (including 1 to a CAA Team) & Mercer did in 3 of their 4 (including (only) a 1 score loss @ Yale)...and with their 3rd Team (walk-on...who was a back-up on his HS Team) QB in their 5th loss last week. It’s been a tough year.

As a Furman AND Mercer Fan, I SURE feel ya...but if that’s enough of a qualifier to make that statement true, then I gotta wonder if the CAA is as strong this year as some are suggesting. I guess we’ll know when the Playoffs get underway, since half of the CAA might be getting bids.

[JSUSoutherner]

Ahhh, as Furman did in 3 of their 4 losses (including 1 to a CAA Team) & Mercer did in 3 of their 4 (including (only) a 1 score loss @ Yale)...and with their 3rd Team (walk-on...who was a back-up on his HS Team) QB in their 5th loss last week. It’s been a tough year.

As a Furman AND Mercer Fan, I SURE feel ya...but if that’s enough of a qualifier to make that statement true, then I gotta wonder if the CAA is as strong this year as some are suggesting. I guess we’ll know when the Playoffs get underway, since half of the CAA might be getting bids.

Didn't Elon beat you by 40?

[FUBeAR]

Didn't Elon beat you by 40?...and...FUBeAR plays the “Backup QB Card” he was given by ccd494.

If that’s enough to excuse a 3-score loss by the potential CAA Champion to a middle-of-the-pack Ivy, surely it has enough magical powers to shed a loss to a potentially seeded Playoff Team.

Your turn.

[PaladinFan]

Didn't Elon beat you by 40?

I won't hear it from a fan of the most chronically overrated team in FCS football.

[JSUSoutherner]

I won't hear it from a fan of the most chronically overrated team in FCS football.


...and...FUBeAR plays the “Backup QB Card” he was given by ccd494.

If that’s enough to excuse a 3-score loss by the potential CAA Champion to a middle-of-the-pack Ivy, surely it has enough magical powers to shed a loss to a potentially seeded Playoff Team.

Your turn.
Well if a backup QB is worth 3 scores then you still lost by 3 scores.

[Sycamore62]

That's valid considering the DII win. 7-4 is 6-4 against DI. I think Illinois State is in a little better shape...they had a NAIA win, but they also had an FBS win (crap team, but still FBS), so if they finish 6-4 against DI, I think they have a leg up on you guys. It won't really come down to a decision between the ISU's though, because one will lose on Saturday and the winner will still have a shot.

I think we can all agree that all of college football is better off if WIU and ISUb came into the game next week at 6-4 and ISUr wasnt in the playoff conversation.

[Professor Chaos]

I think we can all agree that all of college football is better off if WIU and ISUb came into the game next week at 6-4 and ISUr wasnt in the playoff conversation.
ISUr is 0-3 since this happened:

https://twitter.com/RedbirdFB/status/1051232502893998081

Never **** with the stache!

[Schism55]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=29431&stc=1

[Professor Chaos]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=29431&stc=1
Parts Unknown baby!

[FUBeAR]

Well if a backup QB is worth 3 scores then you still lost by 3 scores.Applying the hypothetical transitive properties potion, FUBeAR counters...

So, you’re saying Mercer beat Yale by 2 scores, tied Woffy (but wins with the PowerUp Booster provided by the backup QB playing the whole game on 1 leg), and beat ETSU by 39 (double 3rd Team QB bonus). Yippee...Bears are now 7-2/5-1, tied for 1st in the SoCon with (now) 5-3/5-1 Furman & headed to Chatt. (equipped with a 3 or 6 score QB injury PowerUp) for a win & psyched about playing Furman in the SoCon Championship Game in Macon next Sat.

FUBeAR is happy!

GAME OVER

[JALMOND]

Montana State is 5-4.

Left: Home vs UNC, @Montana. 7-4 MSU gets in.

You would think. If the Valley people want WIU to receive consideration, then Montana State should get a look or two at least.

[HensRock]

Maine wins CAA if they win out.

Yes, and "based on right now", as he says at the top, Maine is the CAA autobid if the season ended today.
Maine also has a tiebreaker advantage over several other CAA teams if it came down to that.
If Maine managed to lose to UR, but beat Elon (which would be completely consistent with their M.O. this year) I think they would win all tiebreakers with any team that tied them. Of course, if they win both they remove all doubt.

[Outsider1]

I think many of us in the SLC could flip Nicholls and McNeese, but it is just that; a toss up. That is, if we do get an at large. If McNeese loses to NSU this weekend, that would be cleared up along with McNeese's record against anyone else. I think especially if Nicholls' SOS is #38 compared to #51 for McNeese.

[Catbooster]

Tough call for me. 7-4 against 55th toughest schedule (SoS via Massey) or 6-5 against 3rd toughest.
WIU's best win is UNI, worst loss would be whoever we lost one of the last two to (we'd have to drop one to be 6-5), between Indiana State and South Dakota.
McNeese has a win over a decent Nicholls State team, but a loss to 4-6 SE Louisiana (or Northwestern State if that's who their last loss is)

I don't know about who's better, but I think that neither of those teams (if those are their final records) are in the playoffs.
To complicate it further, if MSU ends up at 7-4 you add the 12th place SoS who beat WIU with their worst loss being current #14 ISUo (also losses to current #4, 5, 6) but no other signature wins.

[FUGameBreaker]

5 stars for the thread title lol

[caribbeanhen]

Yes, and "based on right now", as he says at the top, Maine is the CAA autobid if the season ended today.
Maine also has a tiebreaker advantage over several other CAA teams if it came down to that.
If Maine managed to lose to UR, but beat Elon (which would be completely consistent with their M.O. this year) I think they would win all tiebreakers with any team that tied them. Of course, if they win both they remove all doubt.

will Maine move thief playoff game to Portland? or the closest dome? when is the last time Maine had a playoff game in Orono?

[Schism55]

5 stars for the thread title lol
Hah totally!
A friend of mine tells a filtttthhhhy joke about a clown named Bubbles xsmiley_wix

[TheRevSFA]

No.

Okay

[katss07]

will Maine move thief playoff game to Portland? or the closest dome? when is the last time Maine had a playoff game in Orono?l
2013 in Orono. I’m sure UNH fans remember that...err...those games.

[kalm]

To complicate it further, if MSU ends up at 7-4 you add the 12th place SoS who beat WIU with their worst loss being current #14 ISUo (also losses to current #4, 5, 6) but no other signature wins.

But a win on the road over a 6-5 Montana who beat UNI would be another decent win.

With a superior SoS MSU's resume would be comparable to a 7-4 JMU or Towson as the latter two would also likely have two wins against teams with a winning record. They both beat SBU who's also likely to finish 7-4 unless they beat UD. Still not a better win than a 7-4 WIU. Speaking of which, a 7-4 SBU's best wins would be against a 5-4 Bryant and URI and they also would have a lower SoS than MSU.

Due to SoS and lack of quality wins, none of the SLC 7-4's (except maybe Nichols) or the SoCon's should be ahead of MSU either.

A 7-4 UND might be a push with wins over SHSU and Montana, but also a lower SoS.

UNI (SoS, quality wins), ISUo (h2h), and a 7-4 ISUr (wins over Colorado State, WIU, and ISUb and #7 SoS) should be likely 7-4 locks to get in ahead of MSU although I'd consider Towson, JMU, and 6-4 Elon fairly likely as well.

Of course the committee has shown in the past that SoS is a fungible commodity.

Corrected: I changed my take on Towson and JMU if they finish 7-4 as they play each other and have Elon and URI as opponents this week so they'd each have 2 quality wins.

[bobcathpdevil56]

I know the MSU-WIU game was early in the year, but at some point a H2H win has to mean something to the committee. Say if they are both 23rd or 24th spots, being considered to get in or be left out.

[leatherneck177]

I know the MSU-WIU game was early in the year, but at some point a H2H win has to mean something to the committee. Say if they are both 23rd or 24th spots, being considered to get in or be left out.

A 7-4 Western would be 6-2 in the MVFC, which would mean a tie for second place in the conference. Western’s bid would have more to do with that, 5 straight wins to end the season and a top 5 SOS.

I dont see a 6-5 Western getting in.

[UNHWildcat18]

Ahem..... 5-6 UNH should be in this bubble conversation........ or are all of you as drunk as I am xdrunkyx

[bobcathpdevil56]

A 7-4 Western would be 6-2 in the MVFC, which would mean a tie for second place in the conference. Western’s bid would have more to do with that, 5 straight wins to end the season and a top 5 SOS.

I dont see a 6-5 Western getting in.

It would be a very interesting discussion if they both end up vying for the final spot. Not sure the Bobcats will even make it to 7-4, but this would make for an interesting choice.

Any precedence that our AGS knowledge base can remember for a situation like this?

[kalm]

A 7-4 Western would be 6-2 in the MVFC, which would mean a tie for second place in the conference. Western’s bid would have more to do with that, 5 straight wins to end the season and a top 5 SOS.

I dont see a 6-5 Western getting in.

At large selections have nothing to do with conference affiliation whether in regards to order of finish or the number of teams selected from a given conference.

Your other two two metrics DO matter along with quality wins, head to head, and of course overall record. There’s some inconsistency from the committee as to how they prioritize those.

[Sycamore62]

At large selections have nothing to do with conference affiliation whether in regards to order of finish or the number of teams selected from a given conference.

Your other two two metrics DO matter along with quality wins, head to head, and of course overall record. There’s some inconsistency from the committee as to how they prioritize those.

At some point it comes down to them discussing it the same way we are.

[Professor Chaos]

It would be a very interesting discussion if they both end up vying for the final spot. Not sure the Bobcats will even make it to 7-4, but this would make for an interesting choice.

Any precedence that our AGS knowledge base can remember for a situation like this?
Last year they put an 8-3 Nicholls into the field over a 9-2 McNeese and, if I recall correctly, the main justification for that straight from the mouth of the selection committee chair was Nicholls 2 point home win in week 1 over McNeese.

Of course McNeese also had 0 quality wins last year as well.

[kalm]

At some point it comes down to them discussing it the same way we are.

God I hope not. Why would they discuss it when it’s already represented by SoS and quality wins?

The name of the conference has nothing to do with comparing the resume’s of a few teams.

[kalm]

It would be a very interesting discussion if they both end up vying for the final spot. Not sure the Bobcats will even make it to 7-4, but this would make for an interesting choice.

Any precedence that our AGS knowledge base can remember for a situation like this?

2016 (I think) UNH got in with an identical record to Albany after Albany had beat them, in Durham, the 2nd to last game of the season. Albany also had an FBS win that year and UNH had lost to a bad Dartmouth team.

[Professor Chaos]

2016 (I think) UNH got in with an identical record to Albany after Albany had beat them, in Durham, the 2nd to last game of the season. Albany also had an FBS win that year and UNH had lost to a bad Dartmouth team.
In 2012 UNH made it in at 7-4 over Towson at 7-4 even though Towson beat UNH by 30, in Durham, on the final Saturday of the regular season.

We could probably start a thread on this just with UNH examples.

[kalm]

In 2012 UNH made it in at 7-4 over Towson at 7-4 even though Towson beat UNH by 30, in Durham, on the final Saturday of the regular season.

We could probably start a thread on this just with UNH examples.

Yep.

[cx500d]

#ButtUNH

[HensRock]

In 2012 UNH made it in at 7-4 over Towson at 7-4 even though Towson beat UNH by 30, in Durham, on the final Saturday of the regular season.

We could probably start a thread on this just with UNH examples.

Helps having your boy on the selection committee. Last season it was over 7-4 Delaware. I thought neither team deserved to go, but UNH was less deserving than UD. Your Towson example is more egregious. All to keep their phony playoff streak* alive!

I wonder if the spin machine go into full gear this season if they win out to 5-6 !! LOL!!!
But we beat JMU...
But we finished with 4 straight wins....
But we have a phony, propped-up playoff streak* to preserve...

[Derby City Duke]

In 2012 UNH made it in at 7-4 over Towson at 7-4 even though Towson beat UNH by 30, in Durham, on the final Saturday of the regular season.

We could probably start a thread on this just with UNH examples.

It would only need 1 post:

" #Marty xbowx "

[Cocky]

Why not just allow 8 teams in this year? After 8 (which may be a stretch) not may worthy of a playoff bid.

[kalm]

Why not just allow 8 teams in this year? After 8 (which may be a stretch) not may worthy of a playoff bid.

This would be one of the worst years for that. You’ll have several unseeded 7-4 or better teams that could make a run. Nova did it in 2010 at 7-4 beating #3 seed SFA and #2 App State on the road before losing late to EWU in the semi’s.

[Thumper 76]

This would be one of the worst years for that. You’ll have several unseeded 7-4 or better teams that could make a run. Nova did it in 2010 at 7-4 beating #3 seed SFA and #2 App State on the road before losing late to EWU in the semi’s.Absolutelty, if there has ever been a year for an unseeded team to make a deep run, this looks like it could be it. The amount of chaos in the teams that appear to be seeds that has happened this year, nothing would surprise me short of San Diego upsetting ndsu in Fargo somehow.

Sent from my SM-T580 using Tapatalk

[Model Citizen]

Fortune's always hiding,
I've looked everywhere,
I'm forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air.

[mvfcfan]

It would be a very interesting discussion if they both end up vying for the final spot. Not sure the Bobcats will even make it to 7-4, but this would make for an interesting choice.

Any precedence that our AGS knowledge base can remember for a situation like this?

I have a solution. If it comes down to WIU and MSU, make NCA&T stay home and let two real teams from good conferences into the playoffs. NC A&T has played no one since their first two games and the MEAC is trash. If you can't win the MEAC then you don't deserve a bid.