Where are all the at-large bids going to come from???

[Professor Chaos]

So I was thinking that the bubble got softer today with all the turmoil in the CAA and Southland but when I started looking at it I'm not so sure since it looks like there's going to be quite a bit of competition for those last few spots. I came up with a rough breakdown of the at-large contenders. I bolded teams I think are in pretty good shape (or can expect to be given their remaining schedule) and denoted the teams that are still in contention for an autobid with asterisks.


Big Sky
UC Davis (8-1)*
EWU (7-2)*
Weber St (7-2)*
Idaho St (6-3)*
Montana (5-4)
Montana St (5-4)

One of the top 4 should end up with the autbobid. The only one of those a little shaky is Idaho St since they have a D2 win and a tough one against Weber to close the season out. If they lose that one would 7-4 with a D2 win be enough to get them in? Montana and Montana St obviously play each other still so one of them is likely out and the other in although Montana will have to win @Idaho next week. Seems like this conference will get 3 at-large... maybe 4.


Big South
Kennesaw St (8-1)*
Monmouth (7-2)*

Monmouth has an incredibly weak resume which got them in last year but they were 9-2 last year not 8-3 which they will be if they lose to Kennesaw. The only way this conference gets at-large is if Monmouth beats Kennesaw next week. Although if Kennesaw loses to Monmouth and JSU to close it out what have they really done with their 8 current wins (which includes a D2 win) that would warrant an at-large? I'm guessing this is a 1 big league.


CAA
Delaware (7-2)*
Elon (6-2)*
Maine (6-3)*
JMU (6-3)
Towson (6-3)
Stony Brook (6-3)
URI (5-4)

Both Elon and Towson only have to win 1 more to secure a spot but both have very tough games to close it out (vs Towson, @Maine for Elon and @Elon, vs JMU for Towson). Delaware is already a lock I think and the others I have bolded each have 1 game they "should" win amongst their final 2 to get to 7 wins and none of them have a D2 win. URI is a wild card but if they win @JMU next week all they have is UNH to get to 7-4. I think this conference gets 4 at-large maybe 5 but getting 5 might be tricky since the CAA teams on the bubble will have to cannibalize themselves.


Independents
UND (5-4)

UND finishes with Portland St and @NAU so they "should" finish 7-4. Will that be enough though? Their SHSU win has lost some luster... they might need Montana to also finish 7-4 so they have a quality win against a playoff contender. I think they're on the bubble at best at 7-4.


MEAC
NC A&T (7-2)

NC A&T still has a shot at the Celebration Bowl if FAMU loses one more time (I don't believe FAMU would have any shot at an at-large at 7-4 with a D2 win) so the only way this conference gets an at-large is if FAMU wins out which bubble teams everywhere should be rooting against them to do. I think NC A&T is in if FAMU does win out... possibly even if A&T drops another game to drop to 8-3 so that's another at-large spot likely taken.


MVFC
SDSU (6-2)
WIU (5-4)
UNI (5-4)
Illinois St (5-4)
Indiana St (5-4)

SDSU seems in for sure with two easily winnable games left. UNI also has two very winnable games to finish out so they should get to 7-4. Indiana St plays both Illinois St and WIU to finish out it's possible 2 of those 3 get knocked out by each other. Both ISUs have a sub-D1 win which won't do them any favors. This conference is really tough to call right now... I'll say 2 at-large spots likely with 3 possible and a very slim chance at 4.


OVC
SEMO (7-2)*
Jacksonville St (7-2)*

SEMO has the inside track to the auto. Jacksonville St will be a really interesting case if they beat Tennessee St but lose to Kennesaw (both of which seem likely at this point). Do they get in at 8-3? I think so based but it's not a given. If SEMO drops a game to finish 8-3 I think their win over JSU gets them in. So I think the OVC gets an at-large bid.


SOCON
ETSU (8-2)*
Wofford (6-3)
Chattanooga (6-3)
Samford (5-4)*
Furman (4-4)

I think the only two teams that can win the SOCON auto at this point are ETSU or Samford (although if Samford loses to The Citadel then beats ETSU it'll be all sorts of confusing). Wofford should be in with 2 games remaining that they'll be heavy favorites in. Chattanooga has a game against SEC South Carolina remaining so seems that at best they'll finish 7-4 which would be another interesting scenario. They'd have a win over Samford which keeps looking better and better but not much else. Furman is another interesting scenario with wins over Wofford and Chatty now... I don't think the committee can guess what would've happened had they played Colgate so if they get to 6-4 (6-2) with a share of the SOCON title what does the committee do with them? I don't know but it seems like they'd have an uphill battle. I'm going to guess that the SOCON gets at least 1 at-large bid and if Samford wins out to take the auto that'll be 2 with a slim chance of 3.


Southland
McNeese (6-3)*
Nicholls (6-3)*
Incarnate Word (5-4)*
Lamar (5-4)
SHSU (5-4)
ACU (5-4)
UCA (5-4)

What. A. Mess. This conference is impossible to predict with pretty much everyone losing to a team that lost to a team that they beat and it's only going to get more convoluted with McNeese/Lamar, UIW/UCA, and SHSU/ACU matchups remaining. Nicholls seems about the only team that can feel all that good with a fairly easy path to 8-3 and an FBS win in their back pocket. Those 3 aforementioned matchups should knock out 3 of the remaining 6 teams but some of these teams even at 7-4 would look pretty unappealing IMO. You'd think the conference would get at least 1 at-large bid with all those teams in contention and it really could be up to 3 if things go perfectly inside and outside of the conference matchups but I don't think you can rule out it being a 1 big league either depending on how the committee values (or doesn't value) the depth in the Southland this year.



Whoopty-do! What does it all mean Basil?
So for fairly sure bets I've got 3 at-large from the Big Sky, 4 from the CAA, 2 from the MVFC, 1 from the OVC, and 1 from the SOCON. That leaves 3 left. Unless FAMU loses it seems NC A&T will take one of those. With the remaining 2 you've got probably a Big Sky bubble team or 2, Monmouth, UND, 1 or 2 from the MVFC, as many as 3 from the SOCON, and probably 2 or 3 from the Southland. How do sort that out those 6 to 12 teams for 2 to 3 spots? Good luck is all I can say.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

You seem to be sure Maine is in but I am not so sure with some really bad losses in there. If they go 1-1 I think they have a sweaty Saturday night. Win both and they're in, though

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

If UNI finishes 7-4 which their #1 SOS, they are in. Then it is interesting from there. Is WIU in at 7-4 also? They have the head/head win over UNI. Ill State is totally out IMO. Ind State? If they finish 7-4 they probably would be in with a 5 game winning streak and knocking out WIU.

2 HUGE weeks left in the Valley....xnodx

[Catatonic]

Southland
McNeese (6-3)*
Nicholls (6-3)*
Incarnate Word (5-4)*
Lamar (5-4)
SHSU (5-4)
ACU (5-4)
UCA (5-4)

What. A. Mess. This conference is impossible to predict with pretty much everyone losing to a team that lost to a team that they beat and it's only going to get more convoluted with McNeese/Lamar, UIW/UCA, and SHSU/ACU matchups remaining. Nicholls seems about the only team that can feel all that good with a fairly easy path to 8-3 and an FBS win in their back pocket. Those 3 aforementioned matchups should knock out 3 of the remaining 6 teams but some of these teams even at 7-4 would look pretty unappealing IMO. You'd think the conference would get at least 1 at-large bid with all those teams in contention and it really could be up to 3 if things go perfectly inside and outside of the conference matchups but I don't think you can rule out it being a 1 big league either depending on how the committee values (or doesn't value) the depth in the Southland this year.

——-


A couple of notes.

UIW only plays one more game before playoff selection, so they won’t reach the 7 win threshold even if they beat UCA.

In addition to the match ups you mention, UCA/ACU also play, which will further help untangle the infusing standings.

I dont know how the selection committee values late season performance, but if either Lamar or ACU win out they would have the longest winning streaks in the conference after slow starts.

My take is that UIW, Lamar and ACU have all improved enough to knock around any team in the conference on any given Saturday but perhaps not enough to pick up an invite to the post season dance. None of these teams have OOC wins against D1 opponents.

Best guess: the SLC is a two bid conference IF both McNeese and Nicholls win out. In this secenario McNeese picks up the auto bid by virtue of a head to head W over Nicholls and Nicholls gets in by virtue of a W over Kansas. McNeese faces a resurgent Lamar though so my scenario might be a bit premature....

[WestCoastAggie]

But I thought the FCS is boring?

[PaladinFan]

To your first point, there are four teams still alive for the SoCon auto bid - ETSU, Samford, Furman, and Wofford.

Samford and ETSU control their destiny.

There is a chaos scenario where Samford loses to Citadel and beats ETSU. That would kick off a series of tie breakers between ETSU, Furman, and Wofford.

[Professor Chaos]

You seem to be sure Maine is in but I am not so sure with some really bad losses in there. If they go 1-1 I think they have a sweaty Saturday night. Win both and they're in, though
Yeah, those losses to Yale and W&M look bad but last year UNH made it with an awful loss to Holy Cross so the committee has just recently shown an ability to forget bad losses (cue the Marty Scarano jokes).

[Professor Chaos]

If UNI finishes 7-4 which their #1 SOS, they are in. Then it is interesting from there. Is WIU in at 7-4 also? They have the head/head win over UNI. Ill State is totally out IMO. Ind State? If they finish 7-4 they probably would be in with a 5 game winning streak and knocking out WIU.

2 HUGE weeks left in the Valley....xnodx
Agree mostly although I think Illinois St has a good shot at 7-4 with that FBS win and wins over WIU and Indiana St (If they get to 7-4). That D2 win and bad loss to Missouri St don't look good but all the bubble team have warts.

[Professor Chaos]

Southland
McNeese (6-3)*
Nicholls (6-3)*
Incarnate Word (5-4)*
Lamar (5-4)
SHSU (5-4)
ACU (5-4)
UCA (5-4)

What. A. Mess. This conference is impossible to predict with pretty much everyone losing to a team that lost to a team that they beat and it's only going to get more convoluted with McNeese/Lamar, UIW/UCA, and SHSU/ACU matchups remaining. Nicholls seems about the only team that can feel all that good with a fairly easy path to 8-3 and an FBS win in their back pocket. Those 3 aforementioned matchups should knock out 3 of the remaining 6 teams but some of these teams even at 7-4 would look pretty unappealing IMO. You'd think the conference would get at least 1 at-large bid with all those teams in contention and it really could be up to 3 if things go perfectly inside and outside of the conference matchups but I don't think you can rule out it being a 1 big league either depending on how the committee values (or doesn't value) the depth in the Southland this year.

——-


A couple of notes.

UIW only plays one more game before playoff selection, so they won’t reach the 7 win threshold even if they beat UCA.

In addition to the match ups you mention, UCA/ACU also play, which will further help untangle the infusing standings.

I dont know how the selection committee values late season performance, but if either Lamar or ACU win out they would have the longest winning streaks in the conference after slow starts.

My take is that UIW, Lamar and ACU have all improved enough to knock around any team in the conference on any given Saturday but perhaps not enough to pick up an invite to the post season dance. None of these teams have OOC wins against D1 opponents.

Best guess: the SLC is a two bid conference IF both McNeese and Nicholls win out. In this secenario McNeese picks up the auto bid by virtue of a head to head W over Nicholls and Nicholls gets in by virtue of a W over Kansas. McNeese faces a resurgent Lamar though so my scenario might be a bit premature....



The ESPN schedule shows a game between UIW and North Alabama on Thursday 11/15. Is that a mistake?

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/2916/incarnate-word-cardinals

Otherwise I generally agree. McNeese and Nicholls are still in the best spots.

[Catatonic]

The ESPN schedule shows a game between UIW and North Alabama on Thursday 11/15. Is that a mistake?

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/2916/incarnate-word-cardinals

Otherwise I generally agree. McNeese and Nicholls are still in the best spots.

UIW dropped UNA and picked up a game against Iowa State, which would be cancelled without penalty in the event that Iowa State made it to the Big 12 Championship or UIW made the FCS playoffs. https://cyclones.com/news/2018/9/12/football-iowa-state-to-host-incarnate-word-on-dec-1.aspx

[Professor Chaos]

UIW dropped UNA and picked up a game against Iowa State, which would be cancelled without penalty in the event that Iowa State made it to the Big 12 Championship or UIW made the FCS playoffs. https://cyclones.com/news/2018/9/12/football-iowa-state-to-host-incarnate-word-on-dec-1.aspx
I see. I knew they had scheduled that Iowa St game after they cancelled their game with SDSU but I figured UIW just had gotten a waiver or something to play 12 games. Well, I guess they dug their own grave there then.

[mainejeff]

You seem to be sure Maine is in but I am not so sure with some really bad losses in there. If they go 1-1 I think they have a sweaty Saturday night. Win both and they're in, though

6-2 in the CAA and an FBS win doesn’t get them in at 7-4? Huh.

[mainejeff]

Yeah, those losses to Yale and W&M look bad but last year UNH made it with an awful loss to Holy Cross so the committee has just recently shown an ability to forget bad losses (cue the Marty Scarano jokes).

Towson just lost to Maine at home. Is that now considered a “bad loss” for one of the CAA darlings of this board?

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Yeah, those losses to Yale and W&M look bad but last year UNH made it with an awful loss to Holy Cross so the committee has just recently shown an ability to forget bad losses (cue the Marty Scarano jokes).

I wouldn't call either a "bad loss". Yale is a solid 5-3 team with wins over CAA Maine and SoCon Mercer. W&M was a conference road loss. Maine imo has a very good resume.

[mainejeff]

Agree mostly although I think Illinois St has a good shot at 7-4 with that FBS win and wins over WIU and Indiana St (If they get to 7-4). That D2 win and bad loss to Missouri St don't look good but all the bubble team have warts.

I wish that you judged Maine like that. Maine doesn’t play D2 teams. And they also have an FBS win. Hater.

[POD Knows]

I wish that you judged Maine like that. Maine doesn’t play D2 teams. And they also have an FBS win. Hater.I am going to put Maine in my top 20 but each time I did that in the past, you guys lost, are you sure you want the recognition? xlolx

[mainejeff]

I am going to put Maine in my top 20 but each time I did that in the past, you guys lost, are you sure you want the recognition? xlolx

Unless you are on the playoff selection committee......it really doesn’t matter what you do. ;)

Poor little Elon got tons of condolences, thoughts & prayers when they lost their QB to injury.....the same thing can’t be said when Maine lost theirs for the Yale game.

[leatherneck177]

If UNI finishes 7-4 which their #1 SOS, they are in. Then it is interesting from there. Is WIU in at 7-4 also? They have the head/head win over UNI. Ill State is totally out IMO. Ind State? If they finish 7-4 they probably would be in with a 5 game winning streak and knocking out WIU.

2 HUGE weeks left in the Valley....xnodx

I agree with you on a 7-4 UNI, 7-4 WIU easily gets in as well. That would a second place tie at 6-2 in the MVFC and a Top 5 SOS.

If ISUb beats WIU, WIU is out....and with ISUb beating ISUr, WIU and winning their last five I think they are in. Tall order but certainly possible.

[Professor Chaos]

I wish that you judged Maine like that. Maine doesn’t play D2 teams. And they also have an FBS win. Hater.
I do. I ranked Maine higher than I ranked Illinois St this week and I think Maine at 7-4 is in a much safer position for an at-large than Illinois St would be at 7-4 as my OP denotes. You love to point out the good parts of Maine's resume but leave out the bad parts. Yes, they have some quality wins and would be 6-2 in the CAA at 7-4 but you can't ignore the fact that they have a bad loss to W&M (and I agree with those posting above that the Yale loss isn't "that" bad but the margin makes it look that way). In the end I think the good parts of their resume outweigh the bad right now but there is some of both.

Maine kind of reminds me of the CAA version of UNI. They can crush a good team one week and inexplicably lose to a bad one the next.


If UNI finishes 7-4 which their #1 SOS, they are in. Then it is interesting from there. Is WIU in at 7-4 also? They have the head/head win over UNI. Ill State is totally out IMO. Ind State? If they finish 7-4 they probably would be in with a 5 game winning streak and knocking out WIU.

2 HUGE weeks left in the Valley....xnodx

I agree with you on a 7-4 UNI, 7-4 WIU easily gets in as well. That would a second place tie at 6-2 in the MVFC and a Top 5 SOS.

If ISUb beats WIU, WIU is out....and with ISUb beating ISUr, WIU and winning their last five I think they are in. Tall order but certainly possible.
I don't really understand the mentality that ISUr is out regardless what they do but WIU is in for sure at 7-4. Does WIU at 7-4 (5-3) get in over Illinois St at 7-4 (4-4) with a D2 loss but an FBS win and a head-to-head win over WIU? I think they're both in in that scenario and that's really the only way that the MVFC gets 5 bids this year (UNI would have to win out also).

[leatherneck177]

I do. I ranked Maine higher than I ranked Illinois St this week and I think Maine at 7-4 is in a much safer position for an at-large than Illinois St would be at 7-4 as my OP denotes. You love to point out the good parts of Maine's resume but leave out the bad parts. Yes, they have some quality wins and would be 6-2 in the CAA at 7-4 but you can't ignore the fact that they have a bad loss to W&M (and I agree with those posting above that the Yale loss isn't "that" bad but the margin makes it look that way). In the end I think the good parts of their resume outweigh the bad right now but there is some of both.

Maine kind of reminds me of the CAA version of UNI. They can crush a good team one week and inexplicably lose to a bad one the next.



I don't really understand the mentality that ISUr is out regardless what they do but WIU is in for sure at 7-4. Does WIU at 7-4 (5-3) get in over Illinois St at 7-4 (4-4) with a D2 loss but an FBS win and a head-to-head win over WIU? I think they're both in in that scenario and that's really the only way that the MVFC gets 5 bids this year (UNI would have to win out also).

IF WIU finishes 7-4, they would be 6-2 in MVFC.

[Professor Chaos]

IF WIU finishes 7-4, they would be 6-2 in MVFC.
Good point. But I still don't think they're in for sure while Illinois St is out in that scenario. It's also worth noting that WIU missed SDSU this year on the conference while Illinois St missed South Dakota.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Good point. But I still don't think they're in for sure while Illinois St is out in that scenario. It's also worth noting that WIU missed SDSU this year on the conference while Illinois St missed South Dakota.


Ill State would be 6-4 with a non-counter. They do have a FBS win under their belt but considering they were 5-1 at one time and now are 5-4, with all of the other teams that will be out there with 8-3 and 7-4 records, I just don't think Ill State is in at 7-4. But who knows.

[KPSUL]

I don't know exactly where they'll be coming from, but don't blame UNH AD, Marty Scarano, he's no longer on the committee!

[POD Knows]

Ill State would be 6-4 with a non-counter. They do have a FBS win under their belt but considering they were 5-1 at one time and now are 5-4, with all of the other teams that will be out there with 8-3 and 7-4 records, I just don't think Ill State is in at 7-4. But who knows.What about UND at 7-4, if they can get there, they have a somewhat schedule, got beat by the only two quality BSC teams they faced and the SHSU win keeps getting weaker and weaker. They finish the year with Portland and NAU, they should win those but who knows. Both of those team are very average.

[Professor Chaos]

Ill State would be 6-4 with a non-counter. They do have a FBS win under their belt but considering they were 5-1 at one time and now are 5-4, with all of the other teams that will be out there with 8-3 and 7-4 records, I just don't think Ill State is in at 7-4. But who knows.
Those are good points but they have a chance to leave this 3 game losing streak in the dust these last 2 weeks. I don't know that the committee will look at it this way but I'd challenge them to take those other 8-3/7-4 teams and hypothesize how they'd do in a 3 game stretch of @NDSU, vs SDSU, and @UNI. That Missouri St loss keeps looking worse and worse for Illinois St though... if they are out left out at 7-4 you can clearly point to that loss and putting an NAIA team on their schedule as the reasoning why.

[POD Knows]

Those are good points but they have a chance to leave this 3 game losing streak in the dust these last 2 weeks. I don't know that the committee will look at it this way but I'd challenge them to take those other 8-3/7-4 teams and hypothesize how they'd do in a 3 game stretch of @NDSU, vs SDSU, and @UNI. That Missouri St loss keeps looking worse and worse for Illinois St though... if they are out left out at 7-4 you can clearly point to that loss and putting an NAIA team on their schedule as the reasoning why.Who is better on the field and in the commitees eyes, a 7-4 ISUr or a 7-4 UND team. I think I know but I think UND gets the nod because of the NAIA game but who knows.

[Reign of Terrier]

As Wofford has a history of slights from the playoff committee, I would not be surprised if we get left out at 8-3. Seriously.

As for the socon, I think the simplest way to think of it is that if Samford wins out, there will likely be 3 in. If Furman wins out, they are on the bubble, with 3 of their losses against playoff teams (the other one to Clemson)

If Samford loses to ETSU or the citadel, socon likely gets 2 in, but that's the scenario Wofford would get shafted. We would finish tied for second with Furman and I think the committee wouldn't be too happy about that.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Professor Chaos]

Who is better on the field and in the commitees eyes, a 7-4 ISUr or a 7-4 UND team. I think I know but I think UND gets the nod because of the NAIA game but who knows.
I think it's Illinois St but there's a ton of variables in there so you could make the argument either way. UND has such a lack of quality wins right now... I really think they need Montana to win out so they can point to at least one win over a possible playoff team (since it looks like SHSU won't even be in the discussion at this point).

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

What about UND at 7-4, if they can get there, they have a somewhat schedule, got beat by the only two quality BSC teams they faced and the SHSU win keeps getting weaker and weaker. They finish the year with Portland and NAU, they should win those but who knows. Both of those team are very average.



IMO, a 7-4 UND is not in. Is their lone mediocre "good win" over Sammy good enough?

xscanx

[leatherneck177]

Good point. But I still don't think they're in for sure while Illinois St is out in that scenario. It's also worth noting that WIU missed SDSU this year on the conference while Illinois St missed South Dakota.

HOWEVER, I see your point, I don't think a 7-4(6-4 DI) ISUr is an automatic out. They are still a solid team, no question they could sneak into the field...as Southland is a mess and depending how CAA/Southern Conferences play out, certainly could be a spot available. I'd say at this point projecting SDSU, WIU and UNI would be initial at larges from MVFC, with ISUr on the outside looking in and sweating playoff selection but certainly feasible.

Really the debate should include a 7-4 UNI as well if WIU is being debated. I just don't see ISUr getting in OVER UNI/WIU, more than anything I see ISUr getting in ALONG with UNI/WIU. Maybe that has been your point...if so its early and I haven't had any coffee as of yet.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Those are good points but they have a chance to leave this 3 game losing streak in the dust these last 2 weeks. I don't know that the committee will look at it this way but I'd challenge them to take those other 8-3/7-4 teams and hypothesize how they'd do in a 3 game stretch of @NDSU, vs SDSU, and @UNI. That Missouri St loss keeps looking worse and worse for Illinois St though... if they are out left out at 7-4 you can clearly point to that loss and putting an NAIA team on their schedule as the reasoning why.


They could be in at 7-4 but crapping their pants against the upper echelon of the Valley is not good IMO. They only thing they will have is that Colorado State win....

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I think there is a great chance of 2 SoCon at-larges, personally. Chatty would have to not crap the bed in order for it to happen.

I'm also starting to think that any team with 8 wins is definitely in - which most interestingly shows that KSU is already in, and Monmouth also might not be eliminated with a loss this upcoming Saturday if they win the following week.

Specifically about Monmouth, if they lose to KSU, their losses would have come to FBS Eastern Michigan, 8-0 Princeton, and presumably a 1-loss or 2-loss KSU team that's currently listed as a seed. I don't think they should be "ranked" above a 7-4 Illinois State team, if they make it, but I have a hard time seeing enough 7-4 teams where it's enough to automatically exclude an 8-3 Monmouth . JMHO

Monmouths' losses would have come against #2 in Massey (Princeton), #12 in Massey (KSU), and a 5-5 Eastern Michigan team that is still alive for a bowl.

[F'N Hawks]

If UND snuck in they would lose to whoever they played. Give it to somebody else.

[geaux_sioux]

IMO, a 7-4 UND is not in. Is their lone mediocre "good win" over Sammy good enough?

xscanx

If Montana wins out they will rocket up the polls with their name. Even then I wouldn’t expect to be in at 7-4. We all knew we needed 8-3 after that loss to Weber.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I think there is a great chance of 2 SoCon at-larges, personally. Chatty would have to not crap the bed in order for it to happen.

I'm also starting to think that any team with 8 wins is definitely in - which most interestingly shows that KSU is already in, and Monmouth also might not be eliminated with a loss this upcoming Saturday if they win the following week.

Specifically about Monmouth, if they lose to KSU, their losses would have come to FBS Eastern Michigan, 8-0 Princeton, and presumably a 1-loss or 2-loss KSU team that's currently listed as a seed. I don't think they should be "ranked" above a 7-4 Illinois State team, if they make it, but I have a hard time seeing enough 7-4 teams where it's enough to automatically exclude an 8-3 Monmouth. JMHO


Monmouth should have never been in the field last year. UNI could have run that game to 100-0. 8-3 Monmouth has no business being in the field this year. Even 9-2. Their schedule is a joke.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

If Montana wins out they will rocket up the polls with their name. Even then I wouldn’t expect to be in at 7-4. We all knew we needed 8-3 after that loss to Weber.


Losing that 4th quarter lead in Idaho is a crusher.

[Professor Chaos]

Monmouth should have never been in the field last year. UNI could have run that game to 100-0. 8-3 Monmouth has no business being in the field this year. Even 9-2. Their schedule is a joke.
At 9-2 they'll be the Big South auto since they'd have to beat Kennesaw to get there but I agree that Monmouth at 8-3 should be one of the first teams to get pushed off the bubble when you start breaking down resumes.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

At 9-2 they'll be the Big South auto since they'd have to beat Kennesaw to get there but I agree that Monmouth at 8-3 should be one of the first teams to get pushed off the bubble when you start breaking down resumes.


Ya, good point on the auto, forgot they have KSU. KSU will roll them though.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Monmouth should have never been in the field last year. UNI could have run that game to 100-0. 8-3 Monmouth has no business being in the field this year. Even 9-2. Their schedule is a joke.

An FBS team and a game against No. 2 in the Massey ratings ain't a joke of a schedule. You can argue they looked bad against the No. 2 team in the country and lost their FBS game, but you can't claim they didn't play anybody.

[Professor Chaos]

An FBS team and a game against No. 2 in the Massey ratings ain't a joke of a schedule. You can argue they looked bad against the No. 2 team in the country and lost their FBS game, but you can't claim they didn't play anybody.
Yet according to Massey their SOS is 96th of 125 FCS teams... that's just a tick above San Diego at 98th. Would we be talking about San Diego as a potential at-large if they didn't win the Pioneer?

[JSUSoutherner]

JSU gets in at 8-3.

The committee will be like "their only loses are to a top 5 team (Kennesaw), their first OVC L In five freaking years, and a dumpster fire game against another playoff team like 4 months ago in the preseason."

We apparently have some form of brand recognition going for us so I don't think we get left out.

We will probably get bounced by the first decent defensive line we play cause our OL is horrendous but we'll be there.

[HensRock]

Maine is now in the driver's seat for the CAA AQ.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

An FBS team and a game against No. 2 in the Massey ratings ain't a joke of a schedule. You can argue they looked bad against the No. 2 team in the country and lost their FBS game, but you can't claim they didn't play anybody.


xlolx

FBS Eastern Michigan?

Princeton boat raced them.

Lafayette
Hampton
Wagner
Bucknell
Campbell
Presbyterian
CSU

...ya, they haven't played anyone.

[WestCoastAggie]

If UND snuck in they would lose to whoever they played. Give it to somebody else.

Does anybody want an At-Large this year?

[geaux_sioux]

Anyone think the committee will consider UND a de facto Big Sky team with their selections?

[kalm]

I do. I ranked Maine higher than I ranked Illinois St this week and I think Maine at 7-4 is in a much safer position for an at-large than Illinois St would be at 7-4 as my OP denotes. You love to point out the good parts of Maine's resume but leave out the bad parts. Yes, they have some quality wins and would be 6-2 in the CAA at 7-4 but you can't ignore the fact that they have a bad loss to W&M (and I agree with those posting above that the Yale loss isn't "that" bad but the margin makes it look that way). In the end I think the good parts of their resume outweigh the bad right now but there is some of both.

Maine kind of reminds me of the CAA version of UNI. They can crush a good team one week and inexplicably lose to a bad one the next.



I don't really understand the mentality that ISUr is out regardless what they do but WIU is in for sure at 7-4. Does WIU at 7-4 (5-3) get in over Illinois St at 7-4 (4-4) with a D2 loss but an FBS win and a head-to-head win over WIU? I think they're both in in that scenario and that's really the only way that the MVFC gets 5 bids this year (UNI would have to win out also).

Really good points her Professor and a very good thread in general.

[kalm]

I think there is a great chance of 2 SoCon at-larges, personally. Chatty would have to not crap the bed in order for it to happen.

I'm also starting to think that any team with 8 wins is definitely in - which most interestingly shows that KSU is already in, and Monmouth also might not be eliminated with a loss this upcoming Saturday if they win the following week.

Specifically about Monmouth, if they lose to KSU, their losses would have come to FBS Eastern Michigan, 8-0 Princeton, and presumably a 1-loss or 2-loss KSU team that's currently listed as a seed. I don't think they should be "ranked" above a 7-4 Illinois State team, if they make it, but I have a hard time seeing enough 7-4 teams where it's enough to automatically exclude an 8-3 Monmouth . JMHO

Monmouths' losses would have come against #2 in Massey (Princeton), #12 in Massey (KSU), and a 5-5 Eastern Michigan team that is still alive for a bowl.

Potential 7-4 teams that would have a better resume than 8-3 Monmouth:

SBU
UND
ISUo
Montana
Montana State
Nicholls
JMU
Elon
Furman
Samford
UTC
ISUr
ISUb
WIU
UNI
Maine
Towson

You could make a similar case vs an 8-3 JSU, McNeese (despite their win against Nicholls), or Kennesaw.

[POD Knows]

Potential 7-4 teams that would have a better resume than 8-3 Monmouth:

SBU
UND
ISUo
Montana
Montana State
Nicholls
JMU
Elon
Furman
Samford
UTC
ISUr
ISUb
WIU
UNI
Maine
Towson

You could make a similar case vs an 8-3 JSU, McNeese (despite their win against Nicholls), or Kennesaw.Every one of those teams you listed would bitch slap Monmouth.

[Terry2889]

6-2 in the CAA and an FBS win doesn’t get them in at 7-4? Huh.

Jeff, relax. You guys are good this year. You're virtually in barring a complete meltdown in the last two games. I think Maine wins both and wins the autobid with a 3 seed. You've been on a tear lately!

[maine612]

Really good points her Professor and a very good thread in general.

Everyone has injuries but it should be noted Maine started the backup QB in the Central Michigan and Yale games. People point to the Yale loss as a bad one but the game was closer than the score indicates (late TD) and Ferguson was out.

Good news is Black Bears control their own destiny.

612

[maine612]

Everyone has injuries but it should be noted Maine started the backup QB in the Central Michigan and Yale games. People point to the Yale loss as a bad one but the game was closer than the score indicates (late TD) and Ferguson was out.

Good news is Black Bears control their own destiny.

612

Correction.. Ferguson got knocked out very early in the CMU game (I believe).

[kalm]

Jeff, relax. You guys are good this year. You're virtually in barring a complete meltdown in the last two games. I think Maine wins both and wins the autobid with a 3 seed. You've been on a tear lately!

They get a 3 seed only if EWU, Weber, UD, SDSU, KSU, and maybe ETSU lose one and Davis loses two.

[Reign of Terrier]

Here's a hot take: I don't know who they'll play in their first playoff game, but at least one of Davis/EWU/Weber will lose their first game. Book it.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[kalm]

Everyone has injuries but it should be noted Maine started the backup QB in the Central Michigan and Yale games. People point to the Yale loss as a bad one but the game was closer than the score indicates (late TD) and Ferguson was out.

Good news is Black Bears control their own destiny.

612

EWU has started the back QB the last 4 games and is winning by an average of 38.75 - 14.5 including the 14-6 loss to Weber (where we were also playing our 3rd and 4th string tackles and down 3 starters on defense).

[Sader87]

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ZZZZ

[Terry2889]

They get a 3 seed only if EWU, Weber, UD, SDSU, KSU, and maybe ETSU lose one and Davis loses two.

Haven't been paying attention this year (because we suck! ) do any of those have a win against FBS schools? Only reason I ask is because it seems to me that the committee values quality wins more than it values bad losses.

[BisonFan02]

7-4 UND would make good bus trip fodder for NDSU to hammer in the 2nd round. xlolx

[Bison56]

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ZZZZ

Somebody wants attention.

[BisonFan02]

San Diego @ UND....winner to Fargo.

[katss07]

I wonder if San Diego will ever reach the quarterfinals. They’re certainly doing a good job building up their program, but is their ceiling the second round? I mean there was a time when people thought winning a first round game would be very rare for a Pioneer team. But now that SD has done it twice it makes me
wonder.

San Diego played UC Davis tough this season. They even led in the second galf before the Aggies pulled away. Lawrence is a playmaker who can lead this team to great things. I’d love to see them in a pod with UND. Winner goes to Weber. That would be fun.

[POD Knows]

San Diego @ UND....winner to Fargo.I am sick of playing San Diego.

[F'N Hawks]

I am sick of playing San Diego.
That's what it would be, too. San Diego would whale-pound us.

[TheKingpin28]

I am sick of playing San Diego.Dewey, Laker, and I are not sick of it. We enjoy it when San Diego comes to the Fargodome.

Sent from my SM-J727V using Tapatalk

[caribbeanhen]

I am sick of playing San Diego.

holy **** not again, do they have a name for the annual San Diego slaughter yet?

[cx500d]

7-4 UND would make good bus trip fodder for NDSU to hammer in the 2nd round. xlolx

They'd have to get past the 1st round

[cx500d]

Dewey, Laker, and I are not sick of it. We enjoy it when San Diego comes to the Fargodome.

Sent from my SM-J727V using Tapatalk


Pictures?

[TheKingpin28]

Pictures?

Mental images for dayz...

[mainejeff]

EWU has started the back QB the last 4 games and is winning by an average of 38.75 - 14.5 including the 14-6 loss to Weber (where we were also playing our 3rd and 4th string tackles and down 3 starters on defense).

The Elon guy started it.

[katss07]

Dewey, Laker, and I are not sick of it. We enjoy it when San Diego comes to the Fargodome.

Sent from my SM-J727V using Tapatalk
Minnesota must really suck

[cx500d]

Minnesota must really suck


No, Minnesota blows....Have you seen their "football" team?

[TheKingpin28]

Minnesota must really suck

Fargodome is in North Dakota, hence, NDSU... xthumbsupx

[Thumper 76]

Am I the only one coming around to the idea that the CAA might just be a bunch of mediocre playoff teams in one conference? I could be wrong but man it’s starting to feel that way to me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[caribbeanhen]

Am I the only one coming around to the idea that the CAA might just be a bunch of mediocre playoff teams in one conference? I could be wrong but man it’s starting to feel that way to me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

When judged against the outlier, the entire FCS is mediocre..... if that, Would be one heck of a wide open playoff if the Ponzi would go play Alabama

[mainejeff]

Am I the only one coming around to the idea that the CAA might just be a bunch of mediocre playoff teams in one conference? I could be wrong but man it’s starting to feel that way to me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think that is a pretty good assessment with the caveat being that you might not want to play some of them (JMU, Maine, Towson) if they make it.

[McNeese72]

Southland
McNeese (6-3)*
Nicholls (6-3)*
Incarnate Word (5-4)*
Lamar (5-4)
SHSU (5-4)
ACU (5-4)
UCA (5-4)

What. A. Mess. This conference is impossible to predict with pretty much everyone losing to a team that lost to a team that they beat and it's only going to get more convoluted with McNeese/Lamar, UIW/UCA, and SHSU/ACU matchups remaining. Nicholls seems about the only team that can feel all that good with a fairly easy path to 8-3 and an FBS win in their back pocket. Those 3 aforementioned matchups should knock out 3 of the remaining 6 teams but some of these teams even at 7-4 would look pretty unappealing IMO. You'd think the conference would get at least 1 at-large bid with all those teams in contention and it really could be up to 3 if things go perfectly inside and outside of the conference matchups but I don't think you can rule out it being a 1 big league either depending on how the committee values (or doesn't value) the depth in the Southland this year.

——-


A couple of notes.

UIW only plays one more game before playoff selection, so they won’t reach the 7 win threshold even if they beat UCA.

In addition to the match ups you mention, UCA/ACU also play, which will further help untangle the infusing standings.

I dont know how the selection committee values late season performance, but if either Lamar or ACU win out they would have the longest winning streaks in the conference after slow starts.

My take is that UIW, Lamar and ACU have all improved enough to knock around any team in the conference on any given Saturday but perhaps not enough to pick up an invite to the post season dance. None of these teams have OOC wins against D1 opponents.

Best guess: the SLC is a two bid conference IF both McNeese and Nicholls win out. In this secenario McNeese picks up the auto bid by virtue of a head to head W over Nicholls and Nicholls gets in by virtue of a W over Kansas. McNeese faces a resurgent Lamar though so my scenario might be a bit premature....




If we play offense like we did against SLU, we won't win another game. There is a good reason why our runningbacks can find no holes and our quarterbacks are all battered, bruised and injured. We would have to be very lucky to win both of the remaining two games.

I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up having to play that freshman QB from Florida some. He has three games left to play on the new redshirt rule.

Doc

[Reign of Terrier]

Am I the only one coming around to the idea that the CAA might just be a bunch of mediocre playoff teams in one conference? I could be wrong but man it’s starting to feel that way to me.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkThere's a lot of mediocrity and inconsistency this year, even with teams with strong OOC. If NDSU has 0 National titles, they would probably be #1 right now anyway because they and Davis are the only consistent team right now with few or no blemishes.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Potential 7-4 teams that would have a better resume than 8-3 Monmouth:

SBU
UND
ISUo
Montana
Montana State
Nicholls
JMU
Elon
Furman
Samford
UTC
ISUr
ISUb
WIU
UNI
Maine
Towson

You could make a similar case vs an 8-3 JSU, McNeese (despite their win against Nicholls), or Kennesaw.

6, maybe 7 at best, of these teams will have 7 D-I wins by the Sunday before Thanksgiving. Also, several of these will win autobids with 7 D-I wins.

[gofurman]

Not gonna go all crazy

but apparently there is a wack scenario that Furman can get the SoCon autobid

it APPEARS that if Furman win out.. And Wofford beats WCU. And Samford loses to Citadl but Sammy beats ETSU ... Furman wins the autobid. Probably 7% chance to happen but apparently that's the way it appears in the SoCon rules?