Committee’s Top 10 (10/31)

[katss07]

The FCS Playoff Committee will release their first Top 10 TONIGHT. Rankings will come out at halftime as usual. Ball St/Toledo game, ESPN2. Im curiously awaiting the unveiling of this Top 10. I have a feeling they could screw it up...we’ll see what happens.

The Top 10:
1. North Dakota St
2. James Madison
3. UC Davis
4. Weber St
5. Elon
6. Kennesaw St
7. South Dakota St
8. Wofford
9. Eastern Washington
10. Delaware

[BisonTru]

07 you should edit your OP when they come out. If not I’ll edit this post with them.


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[katss07]

07 you should edit your OP when they come out. If not I’ll edit this post with them.


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Will do. I’ll list them below the original post.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

No Colgate

[Bison56]

A bit surprised Elon in top 5, and no Colgate.

[BisonTru]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181101/d8dc353eb42906adf42aa7608986e346.jpg


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[Professor Chaos]

Surprised to see Kennesaw down at 6 (not that I think that's wrong). Also surprised to see Weber St and Elon so high at 4 and 5. Committee is clearly high on quality wins with these rankings as their wins over EWU and JMU are the two most impressive things about Weber and Elon, respectively. It also seems like bad losses aren't really hurting teams like Weber and Wofford.

[TheValleyRaider]

No Colgate

Not surprised. Suspect this means we'd play Thanksgiving weekend, absent some serious chaos over the next couple of weeks.

Gotta finish off the League title first xnodx

[BisonTru]

I didn’t understand d the AGS love for Weber and I’m not following the committees either.

Colgate deserves to be in the top 10.


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[PAllen]

No Colgate

That's atrocious. Certainly not seed worthy until we see them against Army, but not even top 10 is disgusting.

[Kramden]

Quality wins and strength of conference/schedule seems to be key, and I would suggest rightfully so.

[Professor Chaos]

I didn’t understand d the AGS love for Weber and I’m not following the committees either.

Colgate deserves to be in the top 10.


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That's atrocious. Certainly not seed worthy until we see them against Army, but not even top 10 is disgusting.
Towson was a bigger snub than Colgate IMO. Although I'd say Colgate is more deserving than SDSU or Wofford.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Not surprised. Suspect this means we'd play Thanksgiving weekend, absent some serious chaos over the next couple of weeks.

Gotta finish off the League title first xnodx

If that's the case then hopefully at home Thanksgiving weekend!

[Prime Power]

Towson was a bigger snub than Colgate IMO. Although I'd say Colgate is more deserving than SDSU or Wofford.

Towson will be seeded when they win their next 3 games:D

[TheValleyRaider]

If that's the case then hopefully at home Thanksgiving weekend!

From your lips to the AD's wallet...

[BisonTru]

Towson was a bigger snub than Colgate IMO. Although I'd say Colgate is more deserving than SDSU or Wofford.

Is Towson's loss to a Delaware squad that got boatraced in Fargo that much less worse than SDSU losing to UNI. Meanwhile Weber St is sitting at #4 with a loss to NAU. I'm not getting the math on that one.

[Professor Chaos]

Is Towson's loss to a Delaware squad that got boatraced in Fargo that much less worse than SDSU losing to UNI. Meanwhile Weber St is sitting at #4 with a loss to NAU. I'm not getting the math on that one.
Agreed. As for Colgate it seems the committee clearly weighted SOS pretty heavily as evidenced by Kennesaw St down at 6. So that would be why Colgate wasn't in at all.

[World]

Agreed. As for Colgate it seems the committee clearly weighted SOS pretty heavily as evidenced by Kennesaw St down at 6. So that would be why Colgate wasn't in at all.

Kennesaw St and Colgate have about the same strength of schedule and Colgate hasn't lost a game

[BisonTru]

Agreed. As for Colgate it seems the committee clearly weighted SOS pretty heavily as evidenced by Kennesaw St down at 6. So that would be why Colgate wasn't in at all.

Yet according to Massey Kennesaw State (89) has a weaker SOS than Colgate (81).

[Hammerhead]

Any of these teams are better than the “MACtion” on ESPN.

[IBleedYellow]

This is actually pretty damn good.

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[Kramden]

9 of 10 line up with STATS this week, only Delaware as opposed to Jacksonville State.

[katss07]

Not too bad. A few thoughts though.

Top 4 looks good, I think all 4 are strong teams. You could’ve flipped JMU and Davis but oh well, I can’t complain. I like how geographically spread out it is too. If these seeds hold (which they won’t) then the road to Frisco would run through California, Utah, North Dakota and Virginia.

Kennesaw at 6 is fine, but if you include an undefeated KSU with a worse SOS, then you have to include Colgate! Maybe replace Wofford with the Raiders? There are still 3 weeks but damn it’ll take some chaos for Colgate to grab a seed. Oh, Elon is too high.

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford is too high but i'll take it. We would be worthy of a seed if we won out, and not so if we lost. This clarifies the issue.

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[Reign of Terrier]

I think the reason Colgate isn't included is because they assume that Colgate would also be curb stomped by Furman and rewarding Wofford's so relative to the Raiders

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[katss07]

I think the reason Colgate isn't included is because they assume that Colgate would also be curb stomped by Furman and rewarding Wofford's so relative to the Raiders

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How can you base a ranking on assumptions? I’m not sure it works like that. Games are played on fields. Colgate has proven themselves worthy by taking care of what they can take care of. Wofford’s losing to Furman should be a reason why Colgate gets into the Top 10, not why they shouldn’t.

And I’m taking Colgate over Furman.

[HensRock]

Quality wins and strength of conference/schedule seems to be key, and I would suggest rightfully so.

Then how in the world did Kennesaw St. make this list?

[Professor Chaos]

Kennesaw St and Colgate have about the same strength of schedule and Colgate hasn't lost a game


Yet according to Massey Kennesaw State (89) has a weaker SOS than Colgate (81).
Solid point. Although I would guess that the game against Clark really skews KSU's SOS. And they've also outscored their opponents by 10 more points per game and outgained their opponents by 100 more yards per game than Colgate has even with that loss to Georgia St.

Still, KSU's committee rank is lower than any of their national poll ranks and Colgate isn't in the top 10 of any national polls right now so I wouldn't expect them to be higher on Colgate than most everyone else while at the same time being lower on Kennesaw St.

[JMUNJ08]

A couple of things as I think this is pretty good.

- Similar to the big boys, all of this will change quickly. More so, if you are already here, just keep winning.
- Colgate not being here is fine and really, not sure who thinks at the exact moment, they would be in the top 10. Most comments and my thoughts too on this board is that AT THE END OF THE SEASON they would be in play for the 8th seed. 3 weeks out, we still have games to play. Really, as long as the committee was debating them, and they keep winning/ show well or even win at Army, they will have that argument. Eye test, yes, but very weak competition.
- KSU at 6 felt right. SOS/ one(ish) bid league historically. They at least had Georgia St (can't believe I am saying this) as a good FBS loss in a game they should have won. Something Colgate has with Army but that is yet to be played. All other opponents to date are dumpster fires so the committee has that 1 game and last years playoffs (don't think they don't remember) in their minds to differentiate.
- Not too sure on Elon at 5 (that has ALOT to do with JMU being 34-4 in the past 3 years with 2 FBS losses, 1 to NDSU and now Elon). Plenty of potholes the last 3 weeks on their schedule and tough injuries to show they deserve this at season's end.
- Delaware > Towson due to um, last week's H2H game? Actual logical sense unlike the two national polls...
- I'm glad there was no Jax St. or other left field teams on here. Really, all have a stake to claim here.

[Kramden]

Good call out. As for Colgate, I think many people would agree, if they go 10-0, with a win over Army ( unlikely) they make the top 8. If they go 9-1 with a loss to Army, they do not. It's a shame they did not get to play Furman, but, frankly, I don't think that result would have impacted their seed.

[Reign of Terrier]

These rankings verify IMO that the committee puts stock in a combination of factors: quality wins, SOS, consistency and (most controversially) prior playoff experience.

Not-good losses abound with Weber, (NAU) Wofford (Furman), and Delaware(Rhode Island), but their overall product outside of that one loss appears top 10 material.



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[woffordgrad94]

I too am pretty sure Colgate would have gotten beaten by Furman, just judging by the previous meetings between the two schools. Colgate’s avoiding of that game was a very sly, shrewd move on their part. They saw their chance with the hurricane to avoid a very losable game and they pounced on it! I think some of the committee called Colgate’s bluff...and fair or not, they penalized the Raiders.

[Reign of Terrier]

How can you base a ranking on assumptions? I’m not sure it works like that. Games are played on fields. Colgate has proven themselves worthy by taking care of what they can take care of. Wofford’s losing to Furman should be a reason why Colgate gets into the Top 10, not why they shouldn’t.

And I’m taking Colgate over Furman.And I'm telling you that the committee has an institutional memory when they technically shouldn't and they probably remember the Furman-Colgate game last year.

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[TheValleyRaider]

I too am pretty sure Colgate would have gotten beaten by Furman, just judging by the previous meetings between the two schools. Colgate’s avoiding of that game was a very sly, shrewd move on their part. They saw their chance with the hurricane to avoid a very losable game and they pounced on it! I think some of the committee called Colgate’s bluff...and fair or not, they penalized the Raiders.

I am quite curious where an idea this foolish would come from

[BisonTru]

Solid point. Although I would guess that the game against Clark really skews KSU's SOS. And they've also outscored their opponents by 10 more points per game and outgained their opponents by 100 more yards per game than Colgate has even with that loss to Georgia St.

Still, KSU's committee rank is lower than any of their national poll ranks and Colgate isn't in the top 10 of any national polls right now so I wouldn't expect them to be higher on Colgate than most everyone else while at the same time being lower on Kennesaw St.

Outside of one fourth quarter with a 24-3 lead Colgate hasn't allowed a TD all year. IMO, that is utter domination regardless if they rack up a bunch of yards and points.

[TheValleyRaider]

And I'm telling you that the committee has an institutional memory when they technically shouldn't and they probably remember the Furman-Colgate game last year.

If we're going to play the game of institutional memory (and not without reason), KSU's strong showing in last year's playoffs is probably carrying a lot of weight.

[Reign of Terrier]

I am quite curious where an idea this foolish would come fromSome Furman fans tbh xlolx

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[Reign of Terrier]

If we're going to play the game of institutional memory (and not without reason), KSU's strong showing in last year's playoffs is probably carrying a lot of weight.Exactly: which is why I think they (and Weber and Wofford) are as high as they are.

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[BisonBacker]

Agreed. As for Colgate it seems the committee clearly weighted SOS pretty heavily as evidenced by Kennesaw St down at 6. So that would be why Colgate wasn't in at all.

Been saying this for quite some time now.

[woffordgrad94]

I am quite curious where an idea this foolish would come from
It’s what all my Furman friends told me...

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't think we talk enough about institutional memory on here. I imagine it's officially not a thing, but it's the only thing that makes some of the committees decisions make sense over the past few year. It's a bias in favor of the blue blood programs.

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[Reign of Terrier]

It’s what all my Furman friends told me...Quit lying

Furman people don't have friends

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[Go...gate]

I too am pretty sure Colgate would have gotten beaten by Furman, just judging by the previous meetings between the two schools. Colgate’s avoiding of that game was a very sly, shrewd move on their part. They saw their chance with the hurricane to avoid a very losable game and they pounced on it! I think some of the committee called Colgate’s bluff...and fair or not, they penalized the Raiders.

WTH???????? There was a hurricane down there, for Pete's sake.

[woffordgrad94]

Quit lying

Furman people don't have friends

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xlolx

[Kemo]

Remaining Schedules for the Top 10 Teams:

1) NDSU
--- Youngstown St; @ Missouri St; Southern Illinois

2) James Madison
--- @ New Hampshire; Rhode Island; @Towson

3) UC Davis
--- Northern Arizona; @ Eastern Washington; Sacramento St

4) Weber St
--- Sacramento State; @ Southern Utah; @ Idaho St

5) Elon
--- Rhode Island; Towson; @ Maine

6) Kennesaw St.
--- Campbell; @ Monmouth; Jacksonville St (neutral site)

7) SDSU
--- Missouri St; @ SIU; USD

8) Wofford
--- @ Samford; @ Western Carolina; Presbyterian

9) Eastern Washington
--- @ Northern Colorado; UC Davis; @ Portland St

10) Delaware
--- @ Albany; @ Stony Brook; Villanova

[woffordgrad94]

WTH???????? There was a hurricane down there, for Pete's sake.
Yes there was. It just turns out the hurricane minimally affected the Greenville area so rumors got started. Actually the South Carolina Upstate (Greenville-Spartanburg) rarely gets strongly affected by hurricanes as its too far from the coast. Much different from Myrtle Beach and Charleston.

[PAllen]

I too am pretty sure Colgate would have gotten beaten by Furman, just judging by the previous meetings between the two schools. Colgate’s avoiding of that game was a very sly, shrewd move on their part. They saw their chance with the hurricane to avoid a very losable game and they pounced on it! I think some of the committee called Colgate’s bluff...and fair or not, they penalized the Raiders.

wtf are you smoking? How exactly did Colgate manipulate the occurrence of a hurricane to cancel the game at Furman? You guys are so biased you are now spouting nonsense. If Colgate and Furman had met, Furman might have scored a touchdown, which is more than just about everyone else they've played. As far as points differential goes, you can't include the D-II in that equation yet discount them in SOS. Plus, how many points do you really need to score when the opponent has less than 4 points on the board?

[PAllen]

I don't think we talk enough about institutional memory on here. I imagine it's officially not a thing, but it's the only thing that makes some of the committees decisions make sense over the past few year. It's a bias in favor of the blue blood programs.

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Because KSU has done so much more than Colgate has in the playoffs.

[MR. CHICKEN]

WTH???????? There was a hurricane down there, for Pete's sake.


.....AN' FURBAGS...WERE IN LOSIN' SPIRAL.....DUH FIRST 3...DEY PLAYED.....AH THINK.....'GATE WOODAH.......BRAWK!

......RAIDERS HAD TA TRAVEL INTA.......HURRICANE......HINDSIGHT 20/20........AIRLINES CANCELLED....ALL OVERAH EAST COAST........RAIDERS WANTED TA AVENGE.......AWK!

[TheValleyRaider]

Because KSU has done so much more than Colgate has in the playoffs.

They did last year. Colgate, in the absence of a bid in the last 2 seasons (too long, as far as I'm concerned), is being considered as a "Patriot League" team. The League's national profile is hurting, while KSU is a year removed from the quarterfinals. This is a very different conversation in 2016, but there we are.

Perception matters a lot, in college football, with so few games to play, and those perceptions can flip quickly. Say KSU gets upset in the 2nd round, and Colgate makes a quarterfinal run again? This looks different in 2019.

[Schism55]

No OVC or Southland teams.......

[JSUSoutherner]

Colgate and Towson are snubs however I think things will work themselves out in the end.

I'd be willing to bet money that 11, 12, and 13 in some order is Towson, Colgate, and JSU.

EWU is pretty much guaranteed to fall out after they lose to UCD and I think the loser of the Elon/Towson game will get bumped for an undefeated (aside from probably Army) Colgate.

The winner of JSU/KSU will be placed top 10 though I think unless Jax State dump trucks KSU they won't be seeded.

I think everyone else in the top 10 is fairly secure.

[JMUNJ08]

No OVC or Southland teams.......

Nor should there be xthumbsupx

I think it would be hard pressed at this point to get any Southland team on here outside of McNeese but they need IW to keep winning to justify that mindboggling loss. For the OVC, SEMSU doesn't fit the profile so its up to Jax St., who only on history and a definitive W vs. KSU should be considered for a quarter final trip to be sacrificed @ NDSU as the #8 (if not their first game)

[Go...gate]

Yes there was. It just turns out the hurricane minimally affected the Greenville area so rumors got started. Actually the South Carolina Upstate (Greenville-Spartanburg) rarely gets strongly affected by hurricanes as its too far from the coast. Much different from Myrtle Beach and Charleston.

Well, to put it politely, those "rumors" are hogwash.

Not very nice of you to make such a claim.

[Professor Chaos]

Kennesaw St and Colgate have about the same strength of schedule and Colgate hasn't lost a game


Yet according to Massey Kennesaw State (89) has a weaker SOS than Colgate (81).


Colgate and Towson are snubs however I think things will work themselves out in the end.

I'd be willing to bet money that 11, 12, and 13 in some order is Towson, Colgate, and JSU.

EWU is pretty much guaranteed to fall out after they lose to UCD and I think the loser of the Elon/Towson game will get bumped for an undefeated (aside from probably Army) Colgate.

The winner of JSU/KSU will be placed top 10 though I think unless Jax State dump trucks KSU they won't be seeded.

I think everyone else in the top 10 is fairly secure.
I have a hard time buying that JSU was that high. It looks to me like the committee valued quality wins first and strength of schedule second in their rankings. JSU has neither plus they have 2 semi-questionable FCS losses. The only team in the top 10 or amongst those you mentioned with 2 FCS losses are SDSU and Delaware and for both of them one of those losses was to NDSU which I would put as roughly equivalent to an FBS loss this year.

[JSUSoutherner]

I have a hard time buying that JSU was that high. It looks to me like the committee valued quality wins first and strength of schedule second in their rankings. JSU has neither plus they have 2 semi-questionable FCS losses. The only team in the top 10 or amongst those you mentioned with 2 FCS losses are SDSU and Delaware and for both of them one of those losses was to NDSU which I would put as roughly equivalent to an FBS loss this year.

I do too but apparently being JSU is worth +5 spots in any poll.

[MacThor]

Solid point. Although I would guess that the game against Clark really skews KSU's SOS. And they've also outscored their opponents by 10 more points per game and outgained their opponents by 100 more yards per game than Colgate has even with that loss to Georgia St.

Still, KSU's committee rank is lower than any of their national poll ranks and Colgate isn't in the top 10 of any national polls right now so I wouldn't expect them to be higher on Colgate than most everyone else while at the same time being lower on Kennesaw St.

Relax, everybody! This will all be settled after their games with Campbell and Fordham, respectively.

[UNHWildcat18]

Colgate isn't top ten worthy IMO.......they barely escaped durham 10-3 with a back up qb in his first start...... that's their most impressive win.... unless the W&M win is more impressive lol. Army is going to stomp them. This isn't some evil shot at the Colgate posters, I like them and glad they are going to make the playoffs but they just aren't a top 10 team....

[PaladinFan]

wtf are you smoking? How exactly did Colgate manipulate the occurrence of a hurricane to cancel the game at Furman? You guys are so biased you are now spouting nonsense. If Colgate and Furman had met, Furman might have scored a touchdown, which is more than just about everyone else they've played. As far as points differential goes, you can't include the D-II in that equation yet discount them in SOS. Plus, how many points do you really need to score when the opponent has less than 4 points on the board?

The hurricane barely touched Greenville. Clemson, 30 miles away, moved their game up a few hours and played at home against Georgia Southern on a bright sunny afternoon.

Furman had ticket specials running for those affected by the storm on the coast (i.e., get into the game for free because you've been displaced inland). They offered to move the game to a week day (which is what many other teams did affected by the storm), but Colgate didn't want students missing classes. Furman would not have made those efforts (running ticket specials) if they were the ones cancelling the game.

The game was cancelled because of an impending storm. It also appears that Colgate made little effort to try to work around that problem. The game, of course, mattered more to Furman, who plays a much tougher schedule than Colgate and could have used the win. Colgate was the best team in their conference and likely had 8 or 9 wins on lock. Playing Furman only hurts them.

It's not a terrible move for Colgate. They are 7-0 and cancelled on probably the best FCS team on their schedule, who had smoked them in three prior meetings including hammering them in New York last season.

I've seen Furman play Colgate three times. Every year we heard about how well coached and disciplined they were. Every time Furman's better athletes just ran over them. Maybe this year would have been different. Probably not.

[woffordgrad94]

The hurricane barely touched Greenville. Clemson, 30 miles away, moved their game up a few hours and played at home against Georgia Southern on a bright sunny afternoon.

Furman had ticket specials running for those affected by the storm on the coast (i.e., get into the game for free because you've been displaced inland). They offered to move the game to a week day (which is what many other teams did affected by the storm), but Colgate didn't want students missing classes. Furman would not have made those efforts (running ticket specials) if they were the ones cancelling the game.

The game was cancelled because of an impending storm. It also appears that Colgate made little effort to try to work around that problem. The game, of course, mattered more to Furman, who plays a much tougher schedule than Colgate and could have used the win. Colgate was the best team in their conference and likely had 8 or 9 wins on lock. Playing Furman only hurts them.

It's not a terrible move for Colgate. They are 7-0 and cancelled on probably the best FCS team on their schedule, who had smoked them in three prior meetings including hammering them in New York last season.

I've seen Furman play Colgate three times. Every year we heard about how well coached and disciplined they were. Every time Furman's better athletes just ran over them. Maybe this year would have been different. Probably not.
My thoughts exactly. I am sorry that some Colgate fans feel that I am not being nice but the rumor is out there and there is a good argument for it. Now I don’t know for sure what was on Colgate’s mind the week of that game- no one but they do. But that doesn’t stop people from wondering. Sorry if I seemed rough and accusatory but as I said I do think it helps Colgate to miss a game many think they would’ve lost.

[kalm]

The hurricane barely touched Greenville. Clemson, 30 miles away, moved their game up a few hours and played at home against Georgia Southern on a bright sunny afternoon.

Furman had ticket specials running for those affected by the storm on the coast (i.e., get into the game for free because you've been displaced inland). They offered to move the game to a week day (which is what many other teams did affected by the storm), but Colgate didn't want students missing classes. Furman would not have made those efforts (running ticket specials) if they were the ones cancelling the game.

The game was cancelled because of an impending storm. It also appears that Colgate made little effort to try to work around that problem. The game, of course, mattered more to Furman, who plays a much tougher schedule than Colgate and could have used the win. Colgate was the best team in their conference and likely had 8 or 9 wins on lock. Playing Furman only hurts them.

It's not a terrible move for Colgate. They are 7-0 and cancelled on probably the best FCS team on their schedule, who had smoked them in three prior meetings including hammering them in New York last season.

I've seen Furman play Colgate three times. Every year we heard about how well coached and disciplined they were. Every time Furman's better athletes just ran over them. Maybe this year would have been different. Probably not.

Interesting points and I'm usually not the one to defend weaker conferences, but when was the last time Furman (or any SoCon team) beat back to back CAA teams on the road in the playoffs? That happened two years ago with Colgate...when this year's seniors were sophomores.

[PaladinNation]

Interesting points and I'm usually not the one to defend weaker conferences, but when was the last time Furman (or any SoCon team) beat back to back CAA teams on the road in the playoffs? That happened two years ago with Colgate...when this year's seniors were sophomores.

Let's remember Furman played Elon at Elon in the first round last year and if I remember correctly Furman was an underdog. The other recent-ish meet up against a CAA team in the playoffs — Furman beating Richmond in 2005 on the road.

I think a healthy Furman team is probably the most capable SoCon team to give a top-tier CAA team a challenge. I hope Furman continues to play tough OOC schedules, including home and home with CAA schools.

[Professor Chaos]

Interesting points and I'm usually not the one to defend weaker conferences, but when was the last time Furman (or any SoCon team) beat back to back CAA teams on the road in the playoffs? That happened two years ago with Colgate...when this year's seniors were sophomores.
I believe that was 3 years ago (in 2015). Lehigh has been the only Patriot League playoff rep the last 2 years.

[Bisonator]

I don't think this is too bad. It's way better then their troll attempt a couple years ago. Everything will shake out over the remainder of the season.

[kalm]

Remaining Schedules for the Top 10 Teams:

1) NDSU
--- Youngstown St; @ Missouri St; Southern Illinois

SoS: 3
Quality wins *: Illinois State, WIU, UNI, SDSU, UD

2) James Madison
--- @ New Hampshire; Rhode Island; @Towson

SoS: 22
QW: SBU

3) UC Davis
--- Northern Arizona; @ Eastern Washington; Sacramento St

Sos: 9
QW: SJSU, Idaho State, Montana, San Diego

4) Weber St
--- Sacramento State; @ Southern Utah; @ Idaho St

SoS: 8
QW: EWU, Montana State, UND

5) Elon
--- Rhode Island; Towson; @ Maine

SoS: 7
QW: JMU

6) Kennesaw St.
--- Campbell; @ Monmouth; Jacksonville St (neutral site)

SoS: 88
Samford

7) SDSU
--- Missouri St; @ SIU; USD

Sos: 5
QW: Montana State, Indiana State, Illinois State

8) Wofford
--- @ Samford; @ Western Carolina; Presbyterian

SoS: 54
QW: UTC, ETSU, Mercer

9) Eastern Washington
--- @ Northern Colorado; UC Davis; @ Portland St

SoS: 14
QW: Montana State

10) Delaware
--- @ Albany; @ Stony Brook; Villanova

Sos: 16
QW: Towson, Elon



Thought I'd add to Kemo's fine work with strength of schedule, quality wins and by adding Towson and Colgate. I'm defining quality wins here as a win against a .500 or better team from the top 6 FCS conferences or likely playoff team from a 1 bid conference.

Towson
--- Maine, @ Elon, JMU

SoS: 23
QW: Stony Brook

Colgate
--- @Fordham, @ Lehigh, @ Army

SoS: 81
QW: 0

JSU
--- UTM, @ TSU, Kennesaw (neutral field)

SoS: 76
QW: Murray State, EKU, Austin Peay

McNeese
--- @ SELA, NSU, Lamar

SoS: 49
QW: Nicholls, ACU, UCA

SE Missouri State:
--- TSU, @ Murray State, EIU

SoS: 56
QW JSU, Austin Peay

Thoughts:

You could exchange EWU for Towson who has the better win however the SoS makes it a push. It's a close call.

Same thing goes for Colgate and KSU but the Owls win against Samford trumps Colgate's slightly higher SoS.

Delaware and SDSU seem low given their strength of schedule and quality wins vs Elon's and JMU's resumes. In the case of JMU, Margin of victory might place them higher than UD but that wouldn't apply in comparing them to SDSU.

KSU is a significant outlier with their Strength of schedule and only quality win coming against a 4-4 Samford. This supports YT's theory of institutional memory.

It's not a terrible ranking, but the further you drill down, the less it holds up. There was talk earlier in the thread of strength of schedule playing a roll but that didn't matter for EWU last year who wasn't even one of the last four out (homerism acknowledged). The committee has also been fairly consistent in the past with valuing recent outcomes, H2H, and FBS wins except when UNH got in over Albany in 2016 when Albany beat Buffalo early in the season and beat UNH on the road the 2nd to last game of the season.

**updated to add JSU, McNeese, and SEMO

[JSUSoutherner]

Thought I'd add to Kemo's fine work with strength of schedule and quality wins. I'm defining quality wins here as a win against a .500 or better team from the top 6 FCS conferences or likely playoff team from a 1 bid conference.

Towson
--- Maine, @ Elon, JMU

SoS: 23
QW: Stony Brook

Colgate
--- @Fordham, @ Lehigh, @ Army

SoS: 81
QW: 0

Thoughts:

You could exchange EWU or for Towson who has the better win but the SoS makes it a push but it's close.

Same thing goes for Colgate and KSU but the Owls win against Samford trumps Colgate's slightly higher SoS.

Delaware and SDSU seem low given their strength of schedule and quality wins vs Elon's and JMU's resumes. In the case of JMU, Margin of victory might place them higher than UD but that wouldn't apply in comparing them to SDSU.

KSU is a significant outlier with their Strength of schedule and only quality win coming against a 4-4 Samford. This supports YT's theory of instiutional memory.

It's not a terrible ranking, but the further you drill down, the less it holds up. There was talk earlier in the thread of strength of schedule playing a roll but that didn't matter for EWU last year who wasn't even one of the last four out (homerism acknowledged). The committee has also been fairly consistent in the past with valuing recent outcomes, H2H, and FBS wins except when UNH got in over Albany in 2016 when Albany beat Buffalo early in the season and beat UNH on the road the 2nd to last game of the season.

Kennesaw State will back up their ranking in three weeks.

Keep in mind this poll means exactly nothing.

[gofurman]

Surprised to see Kennesaw down at 6 (not that I think that's wrong). Also surprised to see Weber St and Elon so high at 4 and 5. Committee is clearly high on quality wins with these rankings as their wins over EWU and JMU are the two most impressive things about Weber and Elon, respectively. It also seems like bad .. /. losses aren't really hurting teams like Weber and Wofford.

This statement that is above is EXACTLY why Furman fans want votes if we win a couple more games ... “losses aren't really hurting teams like Weber and Wofford.”

Once you are in the “boys club” they don’t really care if you lose a game. The committee thinks a top 20’team that loses is an outlier that doesn’t count. The committee let’s the rich get richer and is slow to let those without pre-season rankings get in the poll. So there is a DEFINITE value if my Furnan guys could get ranked this year by year’s end with wins over Wofford and Chattanooga etc. it would help with being pre-season ranked next year

[PaladinFan]

This statement that is above is EXACTLY why Furman fans want votes if we win a couple more games ... “losses aren't really hurting teams like Weber and Wofford.”

Once you are in the “boys club” they don’t really care if you lose a game. The committee thinks a top 20’team that loses is an outlier that doesn’t count. The committee let’s the rich get richer and is slow to let those without pre-season rankings get in the poll. So there is a DEFINITE value if my Furnan guys could get ranked this year by year’s end with wins over Wofford and Chattanooga etc. it would help with being pre-season ranked next year

I've said for years that it is far more difficult to climb the rankings than fall in them.

It's an unintended bias in favor of teams that you are familiar with and who are perceptively "good." Some of that is because it takes a week or two for good teams to find their way on to people's radar. ETSU for instance. They started way at the back but I see no reason that they are just barely inside the top 25 and ranked behind a bunch of teams who have inferior records.

Jacksonville State, for instance, probably got a nice bump last year playing a highly ranked UTC team early in the season. No one really realized that UTC ended up being a bad team, and that win would have looked far less impressive a few weeks later into the season.

[PaladinFan]

Interesting points and I'm usually not the one to defend weaker conferences, but when was the last time Furman (or any SoCon team) beat back to back CAA teams on the road in the playoffs? That happened two years ago with Colgate...when this year's seniors were sophomores.

I don't know the answer.

I think the idea of SoCon schools playing back to back CAA competition in the post season seems incredibly slim. Early in the tournament, the CAA seems to be more likely matched up with the more northeastern conferences (NEC, Patriot, etc.) while the SoCon squares off against ordinarily the two most likely entrants from the OVC and Big South (JSU and Kennesaw). If a southern MEAC team makes it (SCSU, NCAT, etc.) I can see a SoCon program picking up that game while the CAA would likely have some of the more northern MEAC programs (Hampton).

Interestingly, in Craig Haley's recent bracket prediction, just such a scenario may present itself. He has Wofford/Elon in the opening round (a matchup that feels inevitable this year) and then on to James Madison. If Wofford and Elon are both seeded, that seems unlikely to happen, though.

[kalm]

Kennesaw State will back up their ranking in three weeks.

Keep in mind this poll means exactly nothing.

Sand bagging acknowledged xlolxand I'm not pretending that the committee consistently applies the same logic from year to year or within their own polling.

Samford still has Wofford, @ Citadel, and @ ETSU remaining. Likely 6-5. If KSU wins out that and an 8-3 JSU would be their two quality wins with a SoS in the 80's. With some of those around them likely to lose you could be right but that resume should place them behind any 9-2 team from the CAA, Valley, Big Sky, and probably Wofford.

[Reign of Terrier]

Hypothesis without looking at any data: the committee cares about quality wins more if you didn't make the playoffs the year before, but if you're in good shape at 8-3 or higher, the committee doesn't care.

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[bluehenbillk]

I sense that Colgate is similar to UCF in what national FBS people think...

[kalm]

Hypothesis without looking at any data: the committee cares about quality wins more if you didn't make the playoffs the year before, but if you're in good shape at 8-3 or higher, the committee doesn't care.

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That's a very interesting and I'm guessing correct hypothesis.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Hypothesis without looking at any data: the committee cares about quality wins more if you didn't make the playoffs the year before, but if you're in good shape at 8-3 or higher, the committee doesn't care.

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.....COMMITTEE....CARES......'BOUT QUALITY W's.........DAT CAN BE SPUN......INTA SELECTIONS.......DAT MAKE...FO' SHORT BUS RIDES.......AWK!

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm pretty sure Wofford never got ranked until the final ~3 weeks of the season in 2016, despite having various blowouts (against admittedly bad teams) and close losses to Samford and the Citadel (who I think were ranked but at least made the playoffs).

Wofford didn't gain recognition until we beat Chattanooga in the final couple weeks of the year.

We went on to make the quarterfinals, losing in OT to YSU when they went on their run.

Part of the reason I harp on the MVFC is because there's a lot of teams that I don't even follow who could be in a similar position in other conferences. The playoffs are the ultimate experiment for the division and when you privilege a 4th place 7-4 team over a 3rd place 9-2 team (like McNeese last year) you limit your dataset in a bad way. Perceived SOS shouldn't be the only heuristic we use because it devolves into circular logic that few teams can really beat, outside of the blue bloods.

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[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I sense that Colgate is similar to UCF in what national FBS people think...

The AAC is a helluva better than the PL is relative to their peers. At least recently....

[kalm]

I'm pretty sure Wofford never got ranked until the final ~3 weeks of the season in 2016, despite having various blowouts (against admittedly bad teams) and close losses to Samford and the Citadel (who I think were ranked but at least made the playoffs).

Wofford didn't gain recognition until we beat Chattanooga in the final couple weeks of the year.

We went on to make the quarterfinals, losing in OT to YSU when they went on their run.

Part of the reason I harp on the MVFC is because there's a lot of teams that I don't even follow who could be in a similar position in other conferences. The playoffs are the ultimate experiment for the division and when you privilege a 4th place 7-4 team over a 3rd place 9-2 team (like McNeese last year) you limit your dataset in a bad way. Perceived SOS shouldn't be the only heuristic we use because it devolves into circular logic that few teams can really beat, outside of the blue bloods.

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C'mon, IT. Who's saying it should be the only? But when you have an obvious disparity of scheduling, it's pretty ****ing important and if anything, it gets under-regarded on this message board, the polls, and the committee. OOC is a choice and I'm not blaming anyone for scheduling weak to boost their schedule or for playing in a weaker conference but the job here is to pick the best teams. It's not to have an unlimited dataset. And SoS is not just perceived. It's observable for people who follow the entire subdivision closely. It's observable in H2H matchups, playoff history, common opponents, etc.

McNeese played DII Flordia Tech and a 4-loss Alcorn State OOC last year and lost both games to the only two even remotely good teams on their schedule (one of them badly) and otherwise faced 7 SLC teams that were rated somewhere in the 250-300 range in Massey behind a number of DII's.

You've got to drill down a little to find the larger nuggets.

[Mayville Bison]

I've said for years that it is far more difficult to climb the rankings than fall in them.

It's an unintended bias in favor of teams that you are familiar with and who are perceptively "good." Some of that is because it takes a week or two for good teams to find their way on to people's radar. ETSU for instance. They started way at the back but I see no reason that they are just barely inside the top 25 and ranked behind a bunch of teams who have inferior records.

Jacksonville State, for instance, probably got a nice bump last year playing a highly ranked UTC team early in the season. No one really realized that UTC ended up being a bad team, and that win would have looked far less impressive a few weeks later into the season.

ETSU is barely ranked because outside of Gardner-Webb, they can't beat a D1 team by more than 3 points. Once you get enough of those 3 point wins, it will translate into a ranking. Top 15 teams beat VMI by 20+ and don't go to triple overtime against WCU.

For a counter example of your theory, look at UC-Davis. They didn't start the year ranked and have had no recent playoff success. And where are they now? What's the difference between UCD and ETSU? Well, an FBS win for one, not losing by 50 to their P5 opponent, and winning convincingly against teams they should.

[FUBeAR]

ETSU is barely ranked because outside of Gardner-Webb, they can't beat a D1 team by more than 3 points. Once you get enough of those 3 point wins, it will translate into a ranking. Top 15 teams beat VMI by 20+ and don't go to triple overtime against WCU.

For a counter example of your theory, look at UC-Davis. They didn't start the year ranked and have had no recent playoff success. And where are they now? What's the difference between UCD and ETSU? Well, an FBS win for one, not losing by 50 to their P5 opponent, and winning convincingly against teams they should.In the “No you dint!” category - Please tell me you ‘dint’ just try to slide by comparing the UC Davis win over San Jose State to Furman’s loss to Clemson. I think we all know where Clemson sits in the college football dogpile, but not everyone knows that the ‘FBS win’ you just cited for comparing UCD to FU was over an FBS Team that Massey ranks lower than a Team that Furman beat by 3 scores.

C’mon man!

[Reign of Terrier]

ETSU is barely ranked because outside of Gardner-Webb, they can't beat a D1 team by more than 3 points. Once you get enough of those 3 point wins, it will translate into a ranking. Top 15 teams beat VMI by 20+ and don't go to triple overtime against WCU.

For a counter example of your theory, look at UC-Davis. They didn't start the year ranked and have had no recent playoff success. And where are they now? What's the difference between UCD and ETSU? Well, an FBS win for one, not losing by 50 to their P5 opponent, and winning convincingly against teams they should.

Both teams have only beaten one team with a record above .500. Not a huge difference IMO. Meanwhile, ETSU is doing basically the same thing Wofford did last year. Wofford got a seed.

[kalm]

In the “No you dint!” category - Please tell me you ‘dint’ just try to slide by comparing the UC Davis win over San Jose State to Furman’s loss to Clemson. I think we all know where Clemson sits in the college football dogpile, but not everyone knows that the ‘FBS win’ you just cited for comparing UCD to FU was over an FBS Team that Massey ranks lower than a Team that Furman beat by 3 scores.

C’mon man!

Where did he even mention Furman? His Davis analogy is spot on. You can climb the polls. Perhaps not as fast as you should but Davis is an example of how it happens. The SJSU win for Davis is probably like beating a middle to back end of the pack MVFC, CAA, or BSC. But put SJSU (with their 22 extra schollies for consitencies sake) in the SoCon and all of a sudden they may become a Samford which ya'll would take credit for as a good win.

Plus, Davis has a win against a 5-3 ISUo with two FBS losses and wins against UND and SHSU. They curb-stomped Montana at Wa-Griz and before you mention Montana's recent fall, the Griz did beat UNI this season. The comparative wins for ETSU are against two conference opponents who's only quality wins are also against conference opponents.

I know it's the South and I really don't want to drag cousins into this, but jeez............

[kalm]

Both teams have only beaten one team with a record above .500. Not a huge difference IMO. Meanwhile, ETSU is doing basically the same thing Wofford did last year. Wofford got a seed.

There's a reason Davis has the #9 SoS and ETSU's is 69.

[Reign of Terrier]

There's a reason Davis has the #9 SoS and ETSU's is 69.

but have they played the teams that boost that SOS yet or not?

[kalm]

but have they played the teams that boost that SOS yet or not?

Of course. And I don't see much change in the differential going forward either.

[FUBeAR]

Where did he even mention Furman? His Davis analogy is spot on. You can climb the polls. Perhaps not as fast as you should but Davis is an example of how it happens. The SJSU win for Davis is probably like beating a middle to back end of the pack MVFC, CAA, or BSC. But put SJSU (with their 22 extra schollies for consitencies sake) in the SoCon and all of a sudden they may become a Samford which ya'll would take credit for as a good win.

Plus, Davis has a win against a 5-3 ISUo with two FBS losses and wins against UND and SHSU. They curb-stomped Montana at Wa-Griz and before you mention Montana's recent fall, the Griz did beat UNI this season. The comparative wins for ETSU are against two conference opponents who's only quality wins are also against conference opponents.

I know it's the South and I really don't want to drag cousins into this, but jeez............ur right - saw he was responding to Paladin Fan, whom I’ve never seen have a (truly) positive comment about any Team other than Furman...so I ass-u-me-d. My bust.

Regionally (non-football) speaking though....do you really want to compare the ruralism of the South with that of Eastern Washington (the region of the state, not the school)? Pretty sure “The Hills Have Eyes” was actually a documentary made not too far off Hwy 2, near Waterville.

[dbackjon]

These rankings verify IMO that the committee puts stock in a combination of factors: quality wins, SOS, consistency and (most controversially) prior playoff experience.

Not-good losses abound with Weber, (NAU) Wofford (Furman), and Delaware(Rhode Island), but their overall product outside of that one loss appears top 10 material.



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And none of those are BAD losses - especially Delaware's

[Professor]

I don't know the answer.

I think the idea of SoCon schools playing back to back CAA competition in the post season seems incredibly slim. Early in the tournament, the CAA seems to be more likely matched up with the more northeastern conferences (NEC, Patriot, etc.) while the SoCon squares off against ordinarily the two most likely entrants from the OVC and Big South (JSU and Kennesaw). If a southern MEAC team makes it (SCSU, NCAT, etc.) I can see a SoCon program picking up that game while the CAA would likely have some of the more northern MEAC programs (Hampton).

Interestingly, in Craig Haley's recent bracket prediction, just such a scenario may present itself. He has Wofford/Elon in the opening round (a matchup that feels inevitable this year) and then on to James Madison. If Wofford and Elon are both seeded, that seems unlikely to happen, though.

I keep telling people it's going to be NCA&T vs Wofford or Elon on 11/24

[kalm]

ur right - saw he was responding to Paladin Fan, whom I’ve never seen have a (truly) positive comment about any Team other than Furman...so I ass-u-me-d. My bust.

Regionally (non-football) speaking though....do you really want to compare the ruralism of the South with that of Eastern Washington (the region of the state, not the school)? Pretty sure “The Hills Have Eyes” was actually a documentary made not too far off Hwy 2, near Waterville.

Well played, FuB! Well played indeed! Especially the Waterville reference.

[OhioHen]

Committee Top 10 has 9 teams in common with my Top 10 (same teams, different order) - Swap Delaware for Colgate.

Committee Top 10 and AGS Top 10 is the exact same set of teams in slightly different order. Not much to disagree with on the list.

[katss07]

NC A&T isn’t going to get in unless the bubble is exceptionally weak, as it was in 2016. If you recall, this was a year that a 6-5 MVFC team got in which proves the bubble was weak. And a 9-2 was only able to sneak into the playoffs. Any 4 loss MVFC or CAA, 3 loss Southland or Big Sky and 2 loss SoCon team gets in over the Aggies. A&T better hope the bubble is weak.

North Carolina A&T
GW: JSU
BL: Morgan St
Sagarin Ranking: 154th D1
Remaining Schedule: vs NSU, at SSU, at NCCU

Norfolk St and NCCU aren’t the worst in the MEAC, but A&T should win out. Looking at other resumes though they’re going to need some help.

[ngineer]

Quality wins and strength of conference/schedule seems to be key, and I would suggest rightfully so.
True. I think Colgate should be in the edge if not #10, but I also understand their problem with not having a win over a strong opponent. In years past a win over UNH would be something to point to, but not this year. A good show against Army will help them. Unfortunately, wins in the remaining PL games won't.

[BisonTru]

Actual:
1. North Dakota St
2. James Madison
3. UC Davis
4. Weber St
5. Elon
6. Kennesaw St
7. South Dakota St
8. Wofford
9. Eastern Washington
10. Delaware

This was my guess:
1. North Dakota State
2. James Madison
3. UC Davis
4. Kennesaw State
5. Colgate
6. South Dakota St
7. Delaware
8. Weber State
9. Wofford
10. Towson

I thought the top 3 were obvious and the committee agreed. I had KSU higher but I posted I had them higher than I would but the committee agreed more with me than what I thought they would. Colgate was a big miss. That's been discussed my opinion still stands there. I was higher on SDSU and Delaware and a lot lower on Elon and Weber St.

[lucchesicourt]

Davis also held their own against #9 Stanford for the entire first half, and lost by a score of 30-10. Stats wise, Davis didn't do badly against Stanford.

[katss07]

Davis also held their own against #9 Stanford for the entire first half, and lost by a score of 30-10. Stats wise, Davis didn't do badly against Stanford.
I was expecting Davis to come in at 2. Their whole body of work has been impressive. From the well played loss against a Top 15 Stanford (FBS) team to the win over IDSt and the blowout at Wa-Griz, they Ags have a serious case to make. Plus they are undefeated in the FCS, something JMU can’t say. Still, the Aggies get their first real test on the road I’d say.

Contenders must prove they can win on the road. Sure, Wa-Griz is no easy place to play. But the Grizzlies are bad and getting worse. Honestly, Roos is up there. Surviving that red field and beat EWU is a serious accomplishment. If they win, they could be considered a Top 2 seed.

[Go...gate]

The hurricane barely touched Greenville. Clemson, 30 miles away, moved their game up a few hours and played at home against Georgia Southern on a bright sunny afternoon.

Furman had ticket specials running for those affected by the storm on the coast (i.e., get into the game for free because you've been displaced inland). They offered to move the game to a week day (which is what many other teams did affected by the storm), but Colgate didn't want students missing classes. Furman would not have made those efforts (running ticket specials) if they were the ones cancelling the game.

The game was cancelled because of an impending storm. It also appears that Colgate made little effort to try to work around that problem. The game, of course, mattered more to Furman, who plays a much tougher schedule than Colgate and could have used the win. Colgate was the best team in their conference and likely had 8 or 9 wins on lock. Playing Furman only hurts them.

It's not a terrible move for Colgate. They are 7-0 and cancelled on probably the best FCS team on their schedule, who had smoked them in three prior meetings including hammering them in New York last season.

I've seen Furman play Colgate three times. Every year we heard about how well coached and disciplined they were. Every time Furman's better athletes just ran over them. Maybe this year would have been different. Probably not.

Colgate was the school that had to travel and the weather was a serious threat.

I have read nowhere but from you that "Colgate made little effort to work around that problem", and, even assuming that you are hooked into the Furman athletics scene, if you don't think missed class time is a problem, it is at Colgate, and I would imagine it would be for Furman, too.

As far as the game is concerned, based on the past few games, Furman might very well have won once again. But common sense prevailed and the game was cancelled.

[kalm]

I was expecting Davis to come in at 2. Their whole body of work has been impressive. From the well played loss against a Top 15 Stanford (FBS) team to the win over IDSt and the blowout at Wa-Griz, they Ags have a serious case to make. Plus they are undefeated in the FCS, something JMU can’t say. Still, the Aggies get their first real test on the road I’d say.

Contenders must prove they can win on the road. Sure, Wa-Griz is no easy place to play. But the Grizzlies are bad and getting worse. Honestly, Roos is up there. Surviving that red field and beat EWU is a serious accomplishment. If they win, they could be considered a Top 2 seed.

Valid argument.

Now take a look at Weber and how things should play out (not that they will).

If they win vs SAC and at SUU and ISUo, they’ll finish 9-2 with wins over (likely) 8-3 or 9-2 EWU, 6-5 or 7-4 MSU, 8-3 UND, and 7-4 ISU.

There’s at least two playoff teams in there with two on the bubble and top 30ish in the rankings.

[katss07]

Valid argument.

Now take a look at Weber and how things should play out (not that they will).

If they win vs SAC and at SUU and ISUo, they’ll finish 9-2 with wins over (likely) 8-3 or 9-2 EWU, 6-5 or 7-4 MSU, 8-3 UND, and 7-4 ISU.

There’s at least two playoff teams in there with two on the bubble and top 30ish in the rankings.
The Big Sky is clogged. I have EWU and Davis all but penciled into a playoff spot. I’d expect Weber to join them soon as locks. ISUo, UND and MSU are all bubble teams. I’d expect one of those three to get in. Montana is a lost cause.

Shows you the depth of the conference. Its too bad Sac St isn’t as good as we expected.

[WestCoastAggie]

Valid argument.

Now take a look at Weber and how things should play out (not that they will).

If they win vs SAC and at SUU and ISUo, they’ll finish 9-2 with wins over (likely) 8-3 or 9-2 EWU, 6-5 or 7-4 MSU, 8-3 UND, and 7-4 ISU.

There’s at least two playoff teams in there with two on the bubble and top 30ish in the rankings.

The Big Sky will have 4 bids.

[FUBeAR]

The Big Sky will have 4 bids.Which one of those 4 will lose at home to a non-scholarship Team this year?

#BigLieTradition

[JSUSoutherner]

Which one of those 4 will lose at home to a non-scholarship Team this year?

#BigLieTradition

Probably the same as the amount of SoCon teams that get to the quarterfinals.

[Derby City Duke]

I was expecting Davis to come in at 2. Their whole body of work has been impressive. From the well played loss against a Top 15 Stanford (FBS) team to the win over IDSt and the blowout at Wa-Griz, they Ags have a serious case to make. Plus they are undefeated in the FCS, something JMU can’t say. Still, the Aggies get their first real test on the road I’d say.

Contenders must prove they can win on the road. Sure, Wa-Griz is no easy place to play. But the Grizzlies are bad and getting worse. Honestly, Roos is up there. Surviving that red field and beat EWU is a serious accomplishment. If they win, they could be considered a Top 2 seed.

Yep, I was surprised that it was JMU at 2 and UCD at 3. How they do at EWU has a lot to do with how the now-permanent starter does. He is 3-1 IIRC, though I expect UCD is the best team he will have faced to this point.

[Thumper 76]

The Big Sky is clogged. I have EWU and Davis all but penciled into a playoff spot. I’d expect Weber to join them soon as locks. ISUo, UND and MSU are all bubble teams. I’d expect one of those three to get in. Montana is a lost cause.

Shows you the depth of the conference. Its too bad Sac St isn’t as good as we expected.

I’d bet on UND and ISUo to both make it.


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[kalm]

I’d bet on UND and ISUo to both make it.


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ISU is a lock only if they beat Weber. NAU’s collapse has hurt them. If UND and MSU finish strong they’re on the bubble at 7-4.

[FUBeAR]

Probably the same as the amount of SoCon teams that get to the quarterfinals.
Your response makes no sense whatsoever.

Please re-read, re-load, and re-phrase your failed attempt at snarkily redirecting snark. Take two...

[kalm]

Your response makes no sense whatsoever.

Please re-read, re-load, and re-phrase your failed attempt at snarkily redirecting snark. Take two...

I thought it made perfect sense.

[Bison56]

Your response makes no sense whatsoever.

Please re-read, re-load, and re-phrase your failed attempt at snarkily redirecting snark. Take two...

I'm not Ivy League, but it made sense to me.

[CappinHard]

Your response makes no sense whatsoever.

Please re-read, re-load, and re-phrase your failed attempt at snarkily redirecting snark. Take two...

False. To help you out... he's assuming that 0 SoCon teams will get to the quarterfinals and assuming that 0 is the same amount of Big Sky teams that will lose at home to a non-scholarship team.

[Reign of Terrier]

False. To help you out... he's assuming that 0 SoCon teams will get to the quarterfinals and assuming that 0 is the same amount of Big Sky teams that will lose at home to a non-scholarship team.As a Wofford fan I interpreted this as 1 for both xlolx

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[kalm]

As a Wofford fan I interpreted this as 1 for both xlolx

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That’s how I took it too.

[CappinHard]

As a Wofford fan I interpreted this as 1 for both xlolx

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Ha, I suppose. Seemed like a direct jab at the SoCon though, so I took it as 0.

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford is the United Kingdom Soccer team. So surprised when we get to the quarterfinal, but disappointed when we don't advance past that point. Even though it happens every time (or something like that)

[Mayville Bison]

In the “No you dint!” category - Please tell me you ‘dint’ just try to slide by comparing the UC Davis win over San Jose State to Furman’s loss to Clemson. I think we all know where Clemson sits in the college football dogpile, but not everyone knows that the ‘FBS win’ you just cited for comparing UCD to FU was over an FBS Team that Massey ranks lower than a Team that Furman beat by 3 scores.

C’mon man!

Nope, was just saying UCD has an FBS win and both teams lost to a P5 opponent, but one was by 20 and one was by 50+.


NC A&T isn’t going to get in unless the bubble is exceptionally weak, as it was in 2016. If you recall, this was a year that a 6-5 MVFC team got in which proves the bubble was weak. And a 9-2 was only able to sneak into the playoffs. Any 4 loss MVFC or CAA, 3 loss Southland or Big Sky and 2 loss SoCon team gets in over the Aggies. A&T better hope the bubble is weak.

North Carolina A&T
GW: JSU
BL: Morgan St
Sagarin Ranking: 154th D1
Remaining Schedule: vs NSU, at SSU, at NCCU

Norfolk St and NCCU aren’t the worst in the MEAC, but A&T should win out. Looking at other resumes though they’re going to need some help.

I actually think if they win out and JSU wins the OVC that A&T is solidly in (meaning not one of the last 4). The committee will reward the win against JSU and hope to encourage more non-conference matchups like that going forward. Plus, the FBS win (yes, I realize how bad ECU is).

[JSUSoutherner]

As a Wofford fan I interpreted this as 1 for both xlolx

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This is correct.

Wofford will win their second round game before being dumped on by UCD or Towson.

The fighting whale vaginas will get the better of an injured EWU squad.

[Reign of Terrier]

It's going to suck when the socon actually gets good in the next couple years and more fans from ETSU and others come on here. Right now I'm the most involved Socon homer, but if/when that happens, I'll probably be the sandbagger.

[FUBeAR]

So...if I asked each of you, to whom BandBoy’s snarky response to FUBeAR’s snarky comment, made perfect sense, to tell me the name of the reigning FCS Championship Team (which Team?), then you all think a sensible response to that question would be an integer, such as “1,342.”

To put it another way, if the snarky question FUBeAR had asked was, “How many of those 4 BigLie Teams will lose at home to a non-scholarship Team in the 1st round of the Playoffs,” then Beat&Blow’s snarky response would have made sense, but it wasn’t, so it didn’t.

That said...I surrender.

[JSUSoutherner]

I'll probably be the sandbagger.
I'll believe it when I see it.

[katss07]

I hope SHSU gets in and is grouped with UC Davis. We need to end our Big Sky Championship drought.

[JSUSoutherner]

I hope SHSU gets in and is grouped with UC Davis. We need to end our Big Sky Championship drought.
UCD would slaughter you guys.

[katss07]

UCD would slaughter you guys.
*it was a joke about Sam’s track record against “big lie” teams in the playoffs*

[Professor Chaos]

*it was a joke about Sam’s track record against “big lie” teams in the playoffs*
I do find it kind of ironic that SHSU gets bagged on for their playoff track record during the selection process when they've consistently outperform their seed (or lack of seed) over the last few years whereas a team like EWU has consistently underperformed their seed but isn't looked at with the same disdain during that process. I guess it probably has a lot to do with the fact that when Sam makes their exit from the playoffs they like to do it in spectacularly lopsided fashion.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'll believe it when I see it.

You have yet to meet an illiterate ETSU fan on twitter and you were not around here when Georgia Southern and App State fans were 20% of the regular posters. Believe me, I am tame.

[Reign of Terrier]

I do find it kind of ironic that SHSU gets bagged on for their playoff track record during the selection process when they've consistently outperform their seed (or lack of seed) over the last few years whereas a team like EWU has consistently underperformed their seed but isn't looked at with the same disdain during that process. I guess it probably has a lot to do with the fact that when Sam makes their exit from the playoffs they like to do it in spectacularly lopsided fashion.

In a socon thread a few weeks/months ago we had this conversation. The leading hypothesis is that spread teams have poorer defenses as time progresses, because they don't practice against power run teams. So when they meet in the post season, they can't stop it. Some teams (Oklahoma comes to mind) can often offset this with raw athletic talent, but you don't see often at the FCS level. So when these teams that play poor defense and a spectacular offense run into a team that has a good offense and good defense, they get stonewalled. Remember when Texas Tech had Graham Harrell, Crabtree, etc? They blew out everyone that year and then got blown out by Oklahoma.

I don't watch Big Sky or CAA football, but I notice the "throw it all over the yard" style with their conferences more than the MVFC and Socon. Part of the reason why the MVFC is successful is because most of the conference runs an old fashioned Big 10 offense and tough defense. In the Socon, Wofford, Furman, Chattanooga, and ETSU (who may make the playoffs this year) run a pro or run-heavy offense and are usually very competitive no matter who they play (sans Wofford vs NDSU last year), while the spread outliers either don't make the playoffs (Western Carolina) or choke big time (Samford).

That's not to say that Sam Houston or aforementioned Big Sky teams (I'm thinking primarily of EWU, but when you glance at any score from the Big Sky, there are probably more points scored there than any conference) can't win a championship or a big game on the road in the playoffs. But it's less likely to happen because of the style of play.

If you have the aforementioned outlook, you're not surprised when Sam Houston gets blown out, but you still give credit where it's due. They play such a style that any outcome isn't outside of the realm of possibility.

[WestCoastAggie]

Probably the same as the amount of SoCon teams that get to the quarterfinals.

https://media.giphy.com/media/xULW8Hj1dj4Oz0Xzhe/giphy.gif

[WestCoastAggie]

In a socon thread a few weeks/months ago we had this conversation. The leading hypothesis is that spread teams have poorer defenses as time progresses, because they don't practice against power run teams. So when they meet in the post season, they can't stop it. Some teams (Oklahoma comes to mind) can often offset this with raw athletic talent, but you don't see often at the FCS level. So when these teams that play poor defense and a spectacular offense run into a team that has a good offense and good defense, they get stonewalled. Remember when Texas Tech had Graham Harrell, Crabtree, etc? They blew out everyone that year and then got blown out by Oklahoma.

I don't watch Big Sky or CAA football, but I notice the "throw it all over the yard" style with their conferences more than the MVFC and Socon. Part of the reason why the MVFC is successful is because most of the conference runs an old fashioned Big 10 offense and tough defense. In the Socon, Wofford, Furman, Chattanooga, and ETSU (who may make the playoffs this year) run a pro or run-heavy offense and are usually very competitive no matter who they play (sans Wofford vs NDSU last year), while the spread outliers either don't make the playoffs (Western Carolina) or choke big time (Samford).

That's not to say that Sam Houston or aforementioned Big Sky teams (I'm thinking primarily of EWU, but when you glance at any score from the Big Sky, there are probably more points scored there than any conference) can't win a championship or a big game on the road in the playoffs. But it's less likely to happen because of the style of play.

If you have the aforementioned outlook, you're not surprised when Sam Houston gets blown out, but you still give credit where it's due. They play such a style that any outcome isn't outside of the realm of possibility.

It's why in the 90's, FAMU's vaunted Gulf-Coast offense was often stymied by a Gateway/MVFC team. In the playoffs, you need to run the ball, stop the run and win the kicking game.

These things have been preached by A&T Coaches Broadway and Washington. I also think you need a QB that can move the chains when their gameplan is stymied and not turn the ball over.

[Reign of Terrier]

It's why in the 90's, FAMU's vaunted Gulf-Coast offense was often stymied by a Gateway/MVFC team. In the playoffs, you need to run the ball, stop the run and win the kicking game.

These things have been preached by A&T Coaches Broadway and Washington. I also think you need a QB that can move the chains when their gameplan is stymied and not turn the ball over.

Also, I just randomly glanced at the teams that played competitively with NDSU in 2012, 2014, 2016 and others and the common denominator was running the ball well, not turning the ball over and having a good defense. Everyone else who struggled turned the ball over badly, played a spread sort of offense and a so-so defense.

It's just really hard to not turn the ball over against NDSU for some reason.

[Derby City Duke]

I do find it kind of ironic that SHSU gets bagged on for their playoff track record during the selection process when they've consistently outperform their seed (or lack of seed) over the last few years whereas a team like EWU has consistently underperformed their seed but isn't looked at with the same disdain during that process. I guess it probably has a lot to do with the fact that when Sam makes their exit from the playoffs they like to do it in spectacularly lopsided fashion.

Yes, it's usually been Hindenburg-esque xpeacex

[WestCoastAggie]

Also, I just randomly glanced at the teams that played competitively with NDSU in 2012, 2014, 2016 and others and the common denominator was running the ball well, not turning the ball over and having a good defense. Everyone else who struggled turned the ball over badly, played a spread sort of offense and a so-so defense.

It's just really hard to not turn the ball over against NDSU for some reason.

Defensive and Offensive line play is key!

[katss07]

What bothers me isn’t that people crap on Sam. After getting blown out 60 something to ten and making no adjustments year to year, yeah we deserve some crap.

What I take issue to is the consistent consensus that Sam shouldn’t even be in the playoffs. Many say “oh well the SLC is weak”. We’ll yeah, but an SLC team has been in the semis more times than a SoCon team has since 2010. Just because Sam gets killed by a team on a whole different level as them (JMU, JSU, NDSU) doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be there. They’ve earned their way there.

People need to face up to it. SHSU is a Top 10 FCS program that would have won a title if you remove NDSU from the equation. Unfortunately (or fortunately, I wanna beat em!) the Bison are still here. We have to work around it.

[JSUSoutherner]

What bothers me isn’t that people crap on Sam. After getting blown out 60 something to ten and making no adjustments year to year, yeah we deserve some crap.

What I take issue to is the consistent consensus that Sam shouldn’t even be in the playoffs. Many say “oh well the SLC is weak”. We’ll yeah, but an SLC team has been in the semis more times than a SoCon team has since 2010. Just because Sam gets killed by a team on a whole different level as them (JMU, JSU, NDSU) doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be there. They’ve earned their way there.

People need to face up to it. SHSU is a Top 10 FCS program that would have won a title if you remove NDSU from the equation. Unfortunately (or fortunately, I wanna beat em!) the Bison are still here. We have to work around it.
You may not have a title but you got some cool t-shirts out of the deal. :D

[F'N Hawks]

What bothers me isn’t that people crap on Sam. After getting blown out 60 something to ten and making no adjustments year to year, yeah we deserve some crap.

What I take issue to is the consistent consensus that Sam shouldn’t even be in the playoffs. Many say “oh well the SLC is weak”. We’ll yeah, but an SLC team has been in the semis more times than a SoCon team has since 2010. Just because Sam gets killed by a team on a whole different level as them (JMU, JSU, NDSU) doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be there. They’ve earned their way there.

People need to face up to it. SHSU is a Top 10 FCS program that would have won a title if you remove NDSU from the equation. Unfortunately (or fortunately, I wanna beat em!) the Bison are still here. We have to work around it.

Agreed. Where do we sign up for making the quarters or semis every damn year? Pretty sure UND would take that.

[cx500d]

... Remember when Texas Tech had Graham Harrell, Crabtree, etc? They blew out everyone that year and then got blown out by Oklahoma.




I seem to remember Texas Tech with Harrell and Crabtree knocking Oklahoma out of national championship contention with a win....check it out...

[Reign of Terrier]

I seem to remember Texas Tech with Harrell and Crabtree knocking Oklahoma out of national championship contention with a win....check it out...Yep. So my hypothesis is that spread teams have a high floor but a low ceiling. In this way, I don't think Sam Houston, etc is a bad program/team so much as they get what they get.

And for what it's worth I think the same can be said of the option and any option team worth anything will incorporate some passing 25% of the time (why I think Wofford is doing better this year and hasn't lived up to our potential). But that's another thread entirely.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[cx500d]

Yep. So my hypothesis is that spread teams have a high floor but a low ceiling. In this way, I don't think Sam Houston, etc is a bad program/team so much as they get what they get.

And for what it's worth I think the same can be said of the option and any option team worth anything will incorporate some passing 25% of the time (why I think Wofford is doing better this year and hasn't lived up to our potential). But that's another thread entirely.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk


You said Oklahoma smoked Texas Tech....

[Reign of Terrier]

You said Oklahoma smoked Texas Tech....Yep. http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=283270201


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[cx500d]

Yep. http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=283270201


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Oh yeah...I was thinking this one:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=273212641

[Reign of Terrier]

Oh yeah...I was thinking this one:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=273212641Yeah I just googled it. Honest mistake.

Point being, Texas Tech was a great team that year but the bottom fell out in ways predictable for the offense they run

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[Bison Fan in NW MN]

The FCS Playoff Committee will release their first Top 10 TONIGHT. Rankings will come out at halftime as usual. Ball St/Toledo game, ESPN2. Im curiously awaiting the unveiling of this Top 10. I have a feeling they could screw it up...we’ll see what happens.

The Top 10:
1. North Dakota St
2. James Madison
3. UC Davis
4. Weber St
5. Elon
6. Kennesaw St
7. South Dakota St
8. Wofford
9. Eastern Washington
10. Delaware


Actually a decent top 10.

KSU hasn't proved anything yet.