First Selection Committee top 10 will be released on Halloween

[Professor Chaos]

I got a promo email from the NCAA today on the FCS playoffs where they dropped a nugget that the first selection committee top 10 will be released at halftime of the Ball St/Toledo game next Wednesday night (10/31) on ESPN2. The game kicks off at 7:30PM ET so I'd assume the rankings should drop at around 9PM ET.

This is the 3rd year they've done this I believe. Last year their initial rankings were quite good IIRC (about right in line with the current AGS top 10 at that time :)). However, 2 years ago their first set of rankings were pretty awful which led to much wailing and gnashing of teeth mainly from the Fargo, ND area (shocking I know).

[Redbird 4th & short]

good scoop ... I love that they do this and wish they would do it one additional week (leading up to final game day) .. but I get that they don't want to be held too accountable for their top 10 less than a few days prior to their selection Sunday .. so they'll be very relieved to know that. :D

Anyway .. I rip them a lot, so big cudos to NCAA FCS selection committee for doing this ... love the transparency in advance, it can only help them get better at this over time.

p.s. good luck this year .. it will be the hottest mess in a long time. So I'm only going to rip the really stupid picks or seeds. Nit picking this year will not be fair .. unless it's my ISUr !!!! xthumbsupx

[JSUSoutherner]

$2 says if we donkey stomp Murray we will be in the top 10.

[Go...gate]

Thanks for the alert!

[WestCoastAggie]

$2 says if we donkey stomp Murray we will be in the top 10.

So will A&T LMAO.

[kalm]

good scoop ... I love that they do this and wish they would do it one additional week (leading up to final game day) .. but I get that they don't want to be held too accountable for their top 10 less than a few days prior to their selection Sunday .. so they'll be very relieved to know that. :D

Anyway .. I rip them a lot, so big cudos to NCAA FCS selection committee for doing this ... love the transparency in advance, it can only help them get better at this over time.

p.s. good luck this year .. it will be the hottest mess in a long time. So I'm only going to rip the really stupid picks or seeds. Nit picking this year will not be fair .. unless it's my ISUr !!!! xthumbsupx

My understanding is this will be their one and only announcement...so not much transparency.

[MTfan4life]

Expected top 10 from the committee:



North Dakota State
James Madison
Jacksonville State
Kennesaw State
North Carolina A&T
Towson
Alcorn State
Central Arkansas
Princeton
Sam Houston State

[cpacmel]

Expected top 10 from the committee:



North Dakota State
James Madison
Jacksonville State
Kennesaw State
North Carolina A&T
Towson
Alcorn State
Central Arkansas
Princeton
Sam Houston State



I think the winner of Saturday's South Dakota State / Illinois State game has to be in the top 10, right?

[BisonTru]

Expected top 10 from the committee:



North Dakota State
James Madison
Jacksonville State
Kennesaw State
North Carolina A&T
Towson
Alcorn State
Central Arkansas
Princeton
Sam Houston State


What about New Hampshire?


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[Reign of Terrier]

What about New Hampshire?


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkThe money hasn't been exchanged yet. But the cats are a sleeper for the #1 seed

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[MTfan4life]

What about New Hampshire?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We all know that it's best to keep UNH under the rug as long as possible until the very last minute. Once it comes time to decide who the annual NEC or Patriot champion should play in the first round, then New Hampshire will be brought to the forefront of the discussion.

[kalm]

We all know that it's best to keep UNH under the rug as long as possible until the very last minute. Once it comes time to decide who the annual NEC or Patriot champion should play in the first round, then New Hampshire will be brought to the forefront of the discussion.

Look at salty ol’ Lance!

[Redbird 4th & short]

I think the winner of Saturday's South Dakota State / Illinois State game has to be in the top 10, right?
hey mel .. i think the list is meant to be half serious, half yanking our chain. NDSU, JMU, Kennesaw, Towson ... and I guess that's it .. would be legit. At least I hope he's yanking our chain.

[katss07]

Hope they have Jay Walker on the halftime show when A&T gets their spot in the rankings.

[JSUSoutherner]

Expected top 10 from the committee:



North Dakota State
James Madison
Jacksonville State
Kennesaw State
North Carolina A&T
Towson
Alcorn State
Central Arkansas
Princeton
Sam Houston State


NO, higher damnit!

[mvemjsunpx]

Expected top 10 from the committee:



North Dakota State
James Madison
Jacksonville State
Kennesaw State
North Carolina A&T
Towson
Alcorn State
Central Arkansas
Princeton
Sam Houston State



You forgot Campbell. xcoffeex

[UNHWildcat18]

Expected top 10 from the committee:



North Dakota State
James Madison
Jacksonville State
Kennesaw State
North Carolina A&T
Towson
Alcorn State
Central Arkansas
Princeton
Sam Houston State



LOL sam houston at 4-3 is not making the top ten

[UNHWildcat18]

Top ten

1. NDSU
2. UC Davis
3. Towson
4. Kennesaw State
5. James Madison
6. Jacksonville State
7. South Dakota State
8. Princeton
9. NC&T
10. ISUr

Yeah yeah take the last 4 and change with ETSU..EWU.... UNH....WEBER ST..UD..SBU..WOFFORD. Not saying I agree with my top ten, it's just my best guess on what the committee will do.

[kalm]

You forgot Campbell. xcoffeex

You mean Monmouth

Smh...

[mvemjsunpx]

You mean Monmouth

Smh...

Monmouth was last year's darling. It's all about being trendy. xcoffeex

[WestCoastAggie]

Top ten

1. NDSU
2. UC Davis
3. Towson
4. Kennesaw State
5. James Madison
6. Jacksonville State
7. South Dakota State
8. Princeton
9. NC&T
10. ISUr

Yeah yeah take the last 4 and change with ETSU..EWU.... UNH....WEBER ST..UD..SBU..WOFFORD. Not saying I agree with my top ten, it's just my best guess on what the committee will do.

I don’t think we’re in anyone’s top-10 right now thanks to our Morgan State loss.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Top ten

1. NDSU
2. UC Davis
3. Towson
4. Kennesaw State
5. James Madison
6. Jacksonville State
7. South Dakota State
8. Princeton
9. NC&T
10. ISUr

Yeah yeah take the last 4 and change with ETSU..EWU.... UNH....WEBER ST..UD..SBU..WOFFORD. Not saying I agree with my top ten, it's just my best guess on what the committee will do.



http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=29355&stc=1..............UNIVERSITY OF NO HOPE............IS MARTY STILL HOLDIN'......xdontknowx......MIGHT STILL BE HOPE......BRAWK!

[UNHWildcat18]

I don’t think we’re in anyone’s top-10 right now thanks to our Morgan State loss.

I figured due to last year and the FBS win the committee would toss you in a the end. Wouldn't be surprised if any of the other teams I listed take over spots 9/10 though.

[UNHWildcat18]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=29355&stc=1..............UNIVERSITY OF NO HOPE............IS MARTY STILL HOLDIN'......xdontknowx......MIGHT STILL BE HOPE......BRAWK!

Nah no hope here in Durham. Don't be surprised when Coach Mac and Lyons retire after this year, allowing us to start fresh.

- - - Updated - - -


http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=29355&stc=1..............UNIVERSITY OF NO HOPE............IS MARTY STILL HOLDIN'......xdontknowx......MIGHT STILL BE HOPE......BRAWK!

Nah no hope here in Durham. Don't be surprised when Coach Mac and Lyons retire after this year, allowing us to start fresh.

[MR. CHICKEN]

...SERIOUSLAH CAT.......YOUSE HAVE BEEN ON UH FAB RUN......FO' LONG TIME GI.........CAIN'T STAY ON TOP FO' EVERAH...AS WE KNOW IN NEW-ARK.......AWK!

[Redbird 4th & short]

I don’t think we’re in anyone’s top-10 right now thanks to our Morgan State loss.

and loss to Florida A&M at home is a quality loss ??? Plus you struggled to pull away from SC State until late in game. This may shock you ... but I had you guys around 15 before those 3 poor showings. So i don't think you are even top 25 anymore. Given usual weak 4 autobids taking playoff spots they don't deserve (being outside top 24), that leaves only top 20 teams as being playoff bound. With all the bubble debate surrounding teams ranked within +/- 5 spots of that 20th spot .. so figure 15th to 25th ranked teams are on bubble. Certainly a lot of debate for who those 15th to 25th ranked teams should be. But only top 20 in theory usually make playoffs given 4 weak autobids.

[BEAR]

Expected top 10 from the committee:



North Dakota State
James Madison
Jacksonville State
Kennesaw State
North Carolina A&T
Towson
Alcorn State
Central Arkansas
Princeton
Sam Houston State



Why would UCA be in there? Director Teague doesn't get to vote for his own team. xeyebrowx xlolx

[Professor]

and loss to Florida A&M at home is a quality loss ??? Plus you struggled to pull away from SC State until late in game. This may shock you ... but I had you guys around 15 before those 3 poor showings. So i don't think you are even top 25 anymore. Given usual weak 4 autobids taking playoff spots they don't deserve (being outside top 24), that leaves only top 20 teams as being playoff bound. With all the bubble debate surrounding teams ranked within +/- 5 spots of that 20th spot .. so figure 15th to 25th ranked teams are on bubble. Certainly a lot of debate for who those 15th to 25th ranked teams should be. But only top 20 in theory usually make playoffs given 4 weak autobids.

Lol , FAMU will be our conference champ so it will turn out to be. Who cares when we pulled away, we won. We have one bad loss and that's Morgan. We still beat Jax State , who will be in this poll and have an FBS win. Like it or not, unless we lose 2 out of our last 3 , we are in. 8-3 or 9-2 with our resume gets us in

[WestCoastAggie]

Lol , FAMU will be our conference champ so it will turn out to be. Who cares when we pulled away, we won. We have one bad loss and that's Morgan. We still beat Jax State , who will be in this poll and have an FBS win. Like it or not, unless we lose 2 out of our last 3 , we are in. 8-3 or 9-2 with our resume gets us in

8-3 would be too much for us to overcome.

"Survive and advance, baby!" We're in playoff mode in Greensboro, NC!

[UNHWildcat18]

Lol , FAMU will be our conference champ so it will turn out to be. Who cares when we pulled away, we won. We have one bad loss and that's Morgan. We still beat Jax State , who will be in this poll and have an FBS win. Like it or not, unless we lose 2 out of our last 3 , we are in. 8-3 or 9-2 with our resume gets us in

You will go 9-2 and get in, which is fine. some of the other conferences which will be mad not getting a third team in...... probably shouldn't have a 3rd team in. I don't see OVC or Southland getting 3

[Redbird 4th & short]

Lol , FAMU will be our conference champ so it will turn out to be. Who cares when we pulled away, we won. We have one bad loss and that's Morgan. We still beat Jax State , who will be in this poll and have an FBS win. Like it or not, unless we lose 2 out of our last 3 , we are in. 8-3 or 9-2 with our resume gets us in
Whe i said "pull away", i was being overly generous. You beat a bad SC State team by 15. You were down 16-10 at half, up 17-16 after 3 qtrs, and needed 2 Q4 TDs to beat a bad football team by just 15 points. That is viewed as a weak win .. you do get that, right ? Then in additionao to losing to bad Morgan St team at home, you also lose to FL A&M at home .. they are Massey Composite #45, Massey #59, Sagarin #70. So FL A&M is a bad loss for someone claiming to be top 20 or implausibly top 10, and at one point the best in FCS ... you went quietly in the night. Now your back because you have 3 weak teams remaining on your schedule ... a top 10 teams would blow all 3 of these teams out

This is why you are Massey Composite #27,Massey #43, and Sagarin #37. Note, your ECU win is looking weaker as year progresses .. ECU is now 2-5, ranked #109 in FBS per Massey Composite .. typical year for them. Our 16 point win over Colorado St is looking weaker too, but we were up 22 until they scored on last drive of game .. and they were actually decent a year ago.

Committee will remember 2016 .. you were sitting with identical 9-2 record and a similarly weak FBS win and very similar weak SOS in the 90's .. and lost 39-10 in play in game. Both teams were on their 3rd string QB, so enough with that excuse .. did your missing QB also play defense ?

But I don;t envy the selection committee this year ... going to be very tough year to seed and pick bubble teams.

[Professor Chaos]

Whe i said "pull away", i was being overly generous. You beat a bad SC State team by 15. You were down 16-10 at half, up 17-16 after 3 qtrs, and needed 2 Q4 TDs to beat a bad football team by just 15 points. That is viewed as a weak win .. you do get that, right ? Then in additionao to losing to bad Morgan St team at home, you also lose to FL A&M at home .. they are Massey Composite #45, Massey #59, Sagarin #70

This is why you are Massey Composite #27,Massey #43, and Sagarin #37. Note, your ECU win is looking weaker as year progresses .. ECU is now 2-5, ranked #109 in FBS per Massey Composite .. typical year for them. Our 16 point win over Colorado St is looking weaker too, but we were up 22 until they scored on last drive of game .. and they were actually decent a year ago.

Committee will remember 2016 .. you were sitting with identical 9-2 record and a similarly weak FBS win and very similar weak SOS in the 90's .. and got destroyed in play in game against Richmond. Both teams were on their 3rd string QB apparently, so enough with that excuse .. you lost 39-10 ... did your missing QB also play defense ?
I'm no NC A&T apologist but I doubt what happened in 2016 will have any effect on this year's committee deciding whether A&T is worthy of an at-large invite.

[WestCoastAggie]

I'm no NC A&T apologist but I doubt what happened in 2016 will have any effect on this year's committee deciding whether A&T is worthy of an at-large invite.

Thank you! The only things that will have affect will be our performances against JSU and ECU, along with our nut ups vs. Morgan and FAMU.

[Schism55]

Hope they have Jay Walker on the halftime show when A&T gets their spot in the rankings.
C'mon man, don't jinx us like that xeyebrowx

[Herder]

Thank you! The only things that will have affect will be our performances against JSU and ECU, along with our nut ups vs. Morgan and FAMU.


ME-AC, YOU-AC, we all Dac-alac-alca-lac. Cel-e-bra-tion Bowl . . . Come ON! Doo-do-do-do-do-do-do-do.

[Professor]

Whe i said "pull away", i was being overly generous. You beat a bad SC State team by 15. You were down 16-10 at half, up 17-16 after 3 qtrs, and needed 2 Q4 TDs to beat a bad football team by just 15 points. That is viewed as a weak win .. you do get that, right ? Then in additionao to losing to bad Morgan St team at home, you also lose to FL A&M at home .. they are Massey Composite #45, Massey #59, Sagarin #70. So FL A&M is a bad loss for someone claiming to be top 20 or implausibly top 10, and at one point the best in FCS ... you went quietly in the night. Now your back because you have 3 weak teams remaining on your schedule ... a top 10 teams would blow all 3 of these teams out

This is why you are Massey Composite #27,Massey #43, and Sagarin #37. Note, your ECU win is looking weaker as year progresses .. ECU is now 2-5, ranked #109 in FBS per Massey Composite .. typical year for them. Our 16 point win over Colorado St is looking weaker too, but we were up 22 until they scored on last drive of game .. and they were actually decent a year ago.

Committee will remember 2016 .. you were sitting with identical 9-2 record and a similarly weak FBS win and very similar weak SOS in the 90's .. and lost 39-10 in play in game. Both teams were on their 3rd string QB, so enough with that excuse .. did your missing QB also play defense ?

But I don;t envy the selection committee this year ... going to be very tough year to seed and pick bubble teams.

Glad you see it as a weak win. When the W-L columns reflect a weak win , i will consider your opinion valid.

If you think a 9-2 team is going to be home with a 2 OOC FCS wins, one of which against a top 10 team and a FBS win , you sir aren't the football guru you think you were.

- - - Updated - - -


ME-AC, YOU-AC, we all Dac-alac-alca-lac. Cel-e-bra-tion Bowl . . . Come ON! Doo-do-do-do-do-do-do-do.

And what's funny the Celebration Bowl out draws and gets better ratings lol

[UIWWildthing]

Top ten

1. NDSU
2. UC Davis
3. Towson
4. Kennesaw State
5. James Madison
6. Jacksonville State
7. South Dakota State
8. Princeton
9. NC&T
10. ISUr

Yeah yeah take the last 4 and change with ETSU..EWU.... UNH....WEBER ST..UD..SBU..WOFFORD. Not saying I agree with my top ten, it's just my best guess on what the committee will do.
Towson at 3? https://media.giphy.com/media/3rgXBOmTlzyFCURutG/giphy.gif

[Redbird 4th & short]

Glad you see it as a weak win. When the W-L columns reflect a weak win , i will consider your opinion valid.

If you think a 9-2 team is going to be home with a 2 OOC FCS wins, one of which against a top 10 team and a FBS win , you sir aren't the football guru you think you were.

- - - Updated - - -



And what's funny the Celebration Bowl out draws and gets better ratings lol
yeah, you're so right with the whole, the only thing that matter is Wins and Losses ... yeah, that makes so much more sense, than looking st the strength and quality of those wins and losses ... all wins are 100% equally good, and all losses are 100% equally bad. Yep, that works. xlolx

[Redbird 4th & short]

I'm no NC A&T apologist but I doubt what happened in 2016 will have any effect on this year's committee deciding whether A&T is worthy of an at-large invite.
so let's say NC A&T gets a bid again, just like in 2016, and they get spanked again. You don't think the committee ever would take that into consideration when judging whether to take a 2nd place MEAC team over a 5th place MVFC or Colonial team with 7-4 records against top 10 SOSs ? I would hope that factored into the assessment every year ... speaks to conference strength of schedule.

[Professor]

so let's say NC A&T gets a bid again, just 2016, and they get spanked again. You don;t think the committee ever would take that into consideration when judging whether to take a 2nd place MEAC team over a 5th place MVFC or Colonial team with 7-4 records against top 10 SOSs ? I would hope that factored into the assessment every year ... speaks to conference strength of schedule.

Teams get in playoffs and lose every year............... They aren't judged. So why are we.

Your not beating NDSU anyway so all this ranting is pointless

[Professor Chaos]

so let's say NC A&T gets a bid again, just 2016, and they get spanked again. You don;t think the committee ever would take that into consideration when judging whether to take a 2nd place MEAC team over a 5th place MVFC or Colonial team with 7-4 records against top 10 SOSs ? I would hope that factored into the assessment every year ... speaks to conference strength of schedule.
No, I don't think they would because it hasn't stopped them in the past. When the field expanded to 20 in 2010 South Carolina St got an at-large invite despite a pretty weak resume and the fact that the conference was on a ~10 game playoff losing streak. Again in 2013 when the field expanded to 24 South Carolina St got an at large invite despite a sketchy resume and the fact that the conference was on a ~15 game playoff losing streak. The narrative was the same in 2016 and A&T still got an at large invite so I don't see why in 2018 it'll be any different.

[WestCoastAggie]

Just so you all know, if A&T makes it in, we aren't losing in our first round, and we have the potential to make it to the Quarterfinals. Analytics and stats be dammed.

And I personally am somewhat of a data/analytics guy.

[MacThor]

so let's say NC A&T gets a bid again, just 2016, and they get spanked again. You don;t think the committee ever would take that into consideration when judging whether to take a 2nd place MEAC team over a 5th place MVFC or Colonial team with 7-4 records against top 10 SOSs ? I would hope that factored into the assessment every year ... speaks to conference strength of schedule.

No, the committee will keep putting those teams in. You can point to SOS all you want.
2005 - Hampton gets the #2 seed (loses)
2010 - SC State at-large bid (loses)
2013 - SC State at-large bid and home game (loses)
2016 - NC A&T at-large (loses)
2017 - If Howard had been able to beat Hampton in their last game last year and finish 8-3 with an FBS win (and FBS loss), I guarantee they would have been in.

[MacThor]

Just so you all know, if A&T makes it in, we aren't losing in our first round, and we have the potential to make it to the Quarterfinals. Analytics and stats be dammed.

And I personally am somewhat of a data/analytics guy.

The streak is going to end eventually. I just hope we're not the team on the other side of it. :)
Truth be told, I was a little nervous in 2016 after Lauletta went down. We cratered the week before against a not-good W&M team.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Teams get in playoffs and lose every year............... They aren't judged. So why are we.

Your not beating NDSU anyway so all this ranting is pointless

You aren't the only team or conference that's ever been judged by me or others. OVC and Southland get a lot of grief. Even the autobid conferences like NEC and Big South (before Kennesaw St emerged) get grief every time they get a questionable 2nd team in via at large. I also criticized Colonial heavily in 2011 when they got 5 teams and didn't deserve it. I've ripped UNH AD who is on the committee, because UNH seems to be a lock if they finish 7-4 in a way no other team has ever been.

So I'm not picking on NC A&T or MEAC.

And be very clear, this whole debate started when you guys were laying claim to being up there with NDSU and JMU as best in FCS .... right ?? Which was very quickly proven to be absolutely ridiculous thought. So how you sit here now saying my approach makes no sense ... well that makes no sense. I knew you guys were not top 15, much less top 3 or #1 ... I was absolutely sure of it. And then and you went out and proved it in 3 straight games ... 2 bad losses, and a weak win. That is why you are down to Massey Composite #27,Massey #43, and Sagarin #37. You think they use a random number generator ? They used to have you guys in top 15 ... not any more ... weak losses and weak wins matter entirely. How can it not ? Massey Composite of 37 pollls and ranking systems .. they're all wrong ??

[WestCoastAggie]

The streak is going to end eventually. I just hope we're not the team on the other side of it. :)
Truth be told, I was a little nervous in 2016 after Lauletta went down. We cratered the week before against a not-good W&M team.

Our fate was sealed that 2016 season when Lamar Raynard tore his pectoral before the Delaware State game along with members of our secondary being out with injuries.

[ST_Lawson]

I was judging Monmouth last year. Or more specifically, I was envious of UNI getting to host Monmouth while we had to head out to Weber State.

[Bisonoline]

Just so you all know, if A&T makes it in, we aren't losing in our first round, and we have the potential to make it to the Quarterfinals. Analytics and stats be dammed.

And I personally am somewhat of a data/analytics guy.

I would think that would be the least we could expect from the "premier team in the FCS." xthumbsupx

[Professor]

You aren't the only team or conference that's ever been judged by me or others. OVC and Southland get a lot of grief. Even the autobid conferences like NEC and Big South (before Kennesaw St emerged) get grief every time they get a questionable 2nd team in via at large. I also criticized Colonial heavily in 2011 when they got 5 teams and didn't deserve it. I've ripped UNH AD who is on the committee, because UNH seems to be a lock if they finish 7-4 in a way no other team has ever been.

So I'm not picking on NC A&T or MEAC.

And be very clear, this whole debate started when you guys were laying claim to being up there with NDSU and JMU as best in FCS .... right ?? Which was very quickly proven to be absolutely ridiculous thought. So how you sit here now saying my approach makes no sense ... well that makes no sense. I knew you guys were not top 15, much less top 3 or #1 ... I was absolutely sure of it. And then and you went out and proved it in 3 straight games ... 2 bad losses, and a weak win. That is why you are down to Massey Composite #27,Massey #43, and Sagarin #37. You think they use a random number generator ? They used to have you guys in top 15 ... not any more ... weak losses and weak wins matter entirely. How can it not ? Massey Composite of 37 pollls and ranking systems .. they're all wrong ??

Umm we came off an undefeated season, beat a team that is a FCS top 10 staple and then beat a FBS team for the 3rd year in a row. Don't mind us , we ain't sh@t.

If only we had the legacy and team like Illinois State. Man , i pray y'all pull off some damn miracle and get playoff eligible. Ain't a team i wanna play more than the Redbirds

[Professor]

I would think that would be the least we could expect from the "premier team in the FCS." xthumbsupx

Don't be mad at us , we get more ratings and ESPN exposure.

[thebootfitter]

Umm we came off an undefeated season, beat a team that is a FCS top 10 staple and then beat a FBS team for the 3rd year in a row. Don't mind us , we ain't sh@t.

If only we had the legacy and team like Illinois State. Man , i pray y'all pull off some damn miracle and get playoff eligible. Ain't a team i wanna play more than the Redbirds
Whoa! Now THAT's some smack! Throw it down, man!

In all seriousness... I'd love for you to play Illinois State too. I have some ideas how it would be likely to play out, but you never know until both teams take the field and the final buzzer sounds.

[Redbird 4th & short]

No, the committee will keep putting those teams in. You can point to SOS all you want.
2005 - Hampton gets the #2 seed (loses)
2010 - SC State at-large bid (loses)
2013 - SC State at-large bid and home game (loses)
2016 - NC A&T at-large (loses)
2017 - If Howard had been able to beat Hampton in their last game last year and finish 8-3 with an FBS win (and FBS loss), I guarantee they would have been in.
So per your research ... 4 teams in 12 years, with 2 of those 4 teams being in playoff expansion years. And in those 4 "exceptional" years, they're 0-4 over a those 12 years. Can someone please explain how this makes me wrong ?

[Redbird 4th & short]

Umm we came off an undefeated season, beat a team that is a FCS top 10 staple and then beat a FBS team for the 3rd year in a row. Don't mind us , we ain't sh@t.

If only we had the legacy and team like Illinois State. Man , i pray y'all pull off some damn miracle and get playoff eligible. Ain't a team i wanna play more than the Redbirds
Undefeated in 2017 .. so here's who you beat in descending order based on Massey Ranking ... toughest team was Grambling at #224, followed by #225, #226, #254 .... you get the idea below.



Sat2017-12-16
vs
Grambling (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2988&s=295489)playoff
224(11-2)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=836036678)
21
14



Sat2017-10-21

Bethune-Cookman (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=691&s=295489)
225(7-4)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452971)
24
20



Sat2017-09-16
at
Charlotte (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8156&s=295489)
226(1-11)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452653)
35
31



Sat2017-11-18

NC Central (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5505&s=295489)
254(7-4)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453210)
24
10



Sat2017-11-04
at
Norfolk St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5475&s=295489)
334(4-7)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453084)
35
7



Sat2017-09-02
at
Gardner Webb (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2825&s=295489)
343(1-10)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452472)
45
3



Sat2017-11-11

Savannah St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7058&s=295489)
348(3-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453147)
36
17



Sat2017-10-14
at
Florida A&M (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2633&s=295489)
355(3-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452891)
31
20



Sat2017-09-30
at
S Carolina St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7250&s=295489)
358(3-7)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452823)
21
7



Sat2017-10-07

Delaware St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2118&s=295489)
422(2-9)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452855)
44
3



Sat2017-09-23
at
Morgan St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5114&s=295489)
440(1-10)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452728)
49
17



Sat2017-09-09

Mars Hill (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4430&s=295489)
484(3-7)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452638)
56
0



What a resume .. your 4 toughest games ranked 224 to 254, and you won by average of 7 or 8 points per game.

Here's our schedule:



Sat2017-11-18


N Dakota St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5545&s=295489)

23(14-1)

L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453207)

7
20



Sat2017-11-11

at
S Dakota St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7268&s=295489)

56(11-3)

L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453151)OT

24
27



Sat2017-11-04


W Illinois (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8754&s=295489)

79(8-4)

L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453078)

14
31



Sat2017-10-28

at
Youngstown St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=9217&s=295489)

92(6-5)

W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453040)

35
0



Sat2017-10-21


South Dakota (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7262&s=295489)

104(8-5)

W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452986)

37
21



Sat2017-10-14

at
S Illinois (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7339&s=295489)

170(4-7)

L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452929)

7
42



Sat2017-10-07

at
Northern Arizona (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5620&s=295489)

141(7-5)

L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452872)

16
37



Sat2017-09-30


Indiana St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3509&s=295489)

311(0-11)

W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452829)

24
13



Sat2017-09-23

at
Missouri St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4970&s=295489)

201(3-8)

W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452744)

34
9



Sat2017-09-16

at
E Illinois (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2341&s=295489)

246(6-5)

W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452683)

44
13



Sat2017-09-02


Butler (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1004&s=295489)

351(6-5)

W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452480)

45
0

[MacThor]

So per your research ... 4 teams in 12 years, with 2 of those 4 teams being in playoff expansion years. And in those 4 "exceptional" years, they're 0-4 over a those 12 years. Can someone please explain how this makes me wrong ?

You're not wrong about their SOS, or Massey Composite, or Sagarin. We all see the same computer numbers you do.
You're wrong about what the committee will do about it.

[Professor Chaos]

Also of note this rankings release next Wednesday will be the only time they release rankings until the bracket comes out:

https://twitter.com/FCS_Insider/status/1055615521452900352

The past 2 years they did two releases with the second coming during the week before Selection Sunday IIRC.

[OhioHen]

and then beat a FBS team for the 3rd year in a row. Don't mind us , we ain't sh@t.



There are probably a half dozen high school teams in North Carolina who could beat ECU - it may be an "FBS win" but it isn't worth much.

[kalm]

Lol , FAMU will be our conference champ so it will turn out to be. Who cares when we pulled away, we won. We have one bad loss and that's Morgan. We still beat Jax State , who will be in this poll and have an FBS win. Like it or not, unless we lose 2 out of our last 3 , we are in. 8-3 or 9-2 with our resume gets us in

JSU will not be in the committee's top 10 poll this week with two losses.

As mentioned, the ECU win is nice...at best. They're 127 in Massey right behind a 3-4 WIU.

If ECU was FCS they'd currently be ranked 17th in Massey and JSU would be ranked 23rd.

So you have a couple of quality wins but both could be further diminished with JSU still playing KSU and ECU still has Cincy and NC State on the schedule.

I think you have a shot at 9-2 but you probably shouldn't with those 2 losses and the SoS.

[kalm]

I was judging Monmouth last year. Or more specifically, I was envious of UNI getting to host Monmouth while we had to head out to Weber State.

That pod was brutal with you guys and the co-BSC champs. Your game with Weber was a good one and you both deserved UNI or UNH's draw instead.

[Professor]

Undefeated in 2017 .. so here's who you beat in descending order based on Massey Ranking ... toughest team was Grambling at #224, followed by #225, #226, #254 .... you get the idea below.



Sat2017-12-16
vs
Grambling (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2988&s=295489)playoff
224(11-2)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=836036678)
21
14



Sat2017-10-21

Bethune-Cookman (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=691&s=295489)
225(7-4)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452971)
24
20



Sat2017-09-16
at
Charlotte (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8156&s=295489)
226(1-11)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452653)
35
31



Sat2017-11-18

NC Central (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5505&s=295489)
254(7-4)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453210)
24
10



Sat2017-11-04
at
Norfolk St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5475&s=295489)
334(4-7)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453084)
35
7



Sat2017-09-02
at
Gardner Webb (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2825&s=295489)
343(1-10)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452472)
45
3



Sat2017-11-11

Savannah St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7058&s=295489)
348(3-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453147)
36
17



Sat2017-10-14
at
Florida A&M (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2633&s=295489)
355(3-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452891)
31
20



Sat2017-09-30
at
S Carolina St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7250&s=295489)
358(3-7)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452823)
21
7



Sat2017-10-07

Delaware St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2118&s=295489)
422(2-9)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452855)
44
3



Sat2017-09-23
at
Morgan St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5114&s=295489)
440(1-10)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452728)
49
17



Sat2017-09-09

Mars Hill (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4430&s=295489)
484(3-7)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452638)
56
0



What a resume .. your 4 toughest games ranked 224 to 254, and you won by average of 7 or 8 points per game.

Here's our schedule:



Sat2017-11-18

N Dakota St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5545&s=295489)
23(14-1)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453207)
7
20



Sat2017-11-11
at
S Dakota St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7268&s=295489)
56(11-3)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453151)OT
24
27



Sat2017-11-04

W Illinois (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8754&s=295489)
79(8-4)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453078)
14
31



Sat2017-10-28
at
Youngstown St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=9217&s=295489)
92(6-5)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453040)
35
0



Sat2017-10-21

South Dakota (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7262&s=295489)
104(8-5)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452986)
37
21



Sat2017-10-14
at
S Illinois (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7339&s=295489)
170(4-7)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452929)
7
42



Sat2017-10-07
at
Northern Arizona (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5620&s=295489)
141(7-5)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452872)
16
37



Sat2017-09-30

Indiana St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3509&s=295489)
311(0-11)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452829)
24
13



Sat2017-09-23
at
Missouri St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4970&s=295489)
201(3-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452744)
34
9



Sat2017-09-16
at
E Illinois (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2341&s=295489)
246(6-5)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452683)
44
13



Sat2017-09-02

Butler (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1004&s=295489)
351(6-5)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452480)
45
0




Since your so concerned about our FCS validity and SOS , Please have your AD call and schedule a home and home. His information is below.



Earl Hilton III, Director of Intercollegiate Athletics (http://www.ncataggies.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=24500&ATCLID=205215520&)
(336) 285-3600
[email protected]

[Redbird 4th & short]

You're not wrong about their SOS, or Massey Composite, or Sagarin. We all see the same computer numbers you do.
You're wrong about what the committee will do about it.
Right, but I guess my only point is ... over time, we should expect the committee to get better at this and learn from mistakes. Expansion years are tough years to assess, because both times, they were basically just letting 4 more "bubble" teams in. Well after those 2 expansions, a 2nd place 9-2 MEAC team with a weak FBS win got in ... and didn't just lose, they crapped the bed. I would hope after 2 expansions, that the committee would take that into further acccount. And ironically, they will be in identical position this year as they were in 2016 considering a 2nd place MEAC team ... which to my mind will make it even more likely that someone in that room will say ... man, this looks familiar, what happened last time ??

The +/- range around the "bubble" teams will be huge this year .. right now, NC A&T should NOT be on that bubble. You need to blow out bad teams and beat average teams soundly. These NC A&T fans just don't get quality wins and quality losses. I realize Massey is far from perfect, then use the Massey Composite of 37 different polls/systems ... that puts them at #27 at best, only the coaches polls are fooled by their record, none of the computers are ... so I think 27th is too high .. they struggle against teams in lower quartile of FCS.

So I hope the committee learns from past mistakes and tries to get better each year.

p.s. if the other poster is correct and committee is only doing the top 10 once, it is very disappointing that they are taking a step backwards with their transparency.

[mvemjsunpx]

There are probably a half dozen high school teams in North Carolina who could beat ECU - it may be an "FBS win" but it isn't worth much.

UNC was apparently not one of those high-school teams.

[UNHWildcat18]

Also of note this rankings release next Wednesday will be the only time they release rankings until the bracket comes out:

https://twitter.com/FCS_Insider/status/1055615521452900352

The past 2 years they did two releases with the second coming during the week before Selection Sunday IIRC.

I'm not surprised, its too much to ask for the FCS to get an extra 8 min of air time for a SECOND ranking. They need to fill that up with how much Nick Sabans emergency grocery store run will affect his mood before the Mississippi state game

[kalm]

Right, but I guess my only point is ... over time, we should expect the committee to get better at this and learn from mistakes. Expansion years are tough years to assess, because both times, they were basically just letting 4 more "bubble" teams in. Well after those 2 expansions, a 2nd place 9-2 MEAC team with a weak FBS win got in ... and didn't just lose, they crapped the bed. I would hope after 2 expansions, that the committee would take that into further acccount. And ironically, they will be in identical position this year as they were in 2016 considering a 2nd place MEAC team ... which to my mind will make it even more likely that someone in that room will say ... man, this looks familiar, what happened last time ??

The +/- range around the "bubble" teams will be huge this year .. right now, NC A&T should NOT be on that bubble. You need to blow out bad teams and beat average teams soundly. These NC A&T fans just don't get quality wins and quality losses. I realize Massey is far from perfect, then use the Massey Composite of 37 different polls/systems ... that puts them at #27 at best, only the coaches polls are fooled by their record, none of the computers are ... so I think 27th is too high .. they struggle against teams in lower quartile of FCS.

So I hope the committee learns from past mistakes and tries to get better each year.

p.s. if the other poster is correct and committee is only doing the top 10 once, it is very disappointing that they are taking a step backwards with their transparency.

All of this.

And don't sleep on Murray State. They've won 4 straight and seemingly figured out an offense. What if they were to beat JSU and/or SEMO at home? A 7-4 or 8-3 OVC team who lost 49-10 to a 1-6 SIU....:D

[MacThor]

And that was kind of my point; they haven't changed since 1999. I agree that expansion years are tough to assess, but the same arguments could have been made in those years.

FWIW, I do not have NCAT in my poll (just barely) and would not give them an at large bid if I were on the committee. Of course, a lot can happen in 4 weeks.

I can also see the argument for the committee's position (breadth of field over depth).

[kalm]

And that was kind of my point; they haven't changed since 1999. I agree that expansion years are tough to assess, but the same arguments could have been made in those years.

FWIW, I do not have NCAT in my poll (just barely) and would not give them an at large bid if I were on the committee. Of course, a lot can happen in 4 weeks.

I can also see the argument for the committee's position (breadth of field over depth).

The committee's job is not to create a greater breadth of field. That's the job of the weaker conferences.

[Professor]

Right, but I guess my only point is ... over time, we should expect the committee to get better at this and learn from mistakes. Expansion years are tough years to assess, because both times, they were basically just letting 4 more "bubble" teams in. Well after those 2 expansions, a 2nd place 9-2 MEAC team with a weak FBS win got in ... and didn't just lose, they crapped the bed. I would hope after 2 expansions, that the committee would take that into further acccount. And ironically, they will be in identical position this year as they were in 2016 considering a 2nd place MEAC team ... which to my mind will make it even more likely that someone in that room will say ... man, this looks familiar, what happened last time ??

The +/- range around the "bubble" teams will be huge this year .. right now, NC A&T should NOT be on that bubble. You need to blow out bad teams and beat average teams soundly. These NC A&T fans just don't get quality wins and quality losses. I realize Massey is far from perfect, then use the Massey Composite of 37 different polls/systems ... that puts them at #27 at best, only the coaches polls are fooled by their record, none of the computers are ... so I think 27th is too high .. they struggle against teams in lower quartile of FCS.

So I hope the committee learns from past mistakes and tries to get better each year.

p.s. if the other poster is correct and committee is only doing the top 10 once, it is very disappointing that they are taking a step backwards with their transparency.

Our comprehension is very good when it comes to quality. If you want to be serious about it and impartial , the MVFC and CAA are the two heavyweight conferences. Everyone else is on a lower tier. But what you can't see to grasp is that in a NATIONAL PLAYOFF , you can't have teams that are .500 from a dominate conference over teams who have 8 or 9 wins and have followed the traditional formula to guarantee a playoff bid.

If that is the case , just be the conf champs and all the teams from the MVFC and CAA.

[X-Factor]

I dunno, let them get the bid again. These playoffs are already ridiculously watered down already so who cares. Basically handing out participation ribbons now. It just makes things more lol worthy when A&T gets soundly beat by a 8-3 CAA or SoCo in the opening round

[Redbird 4th & short]

Our comprehension is very good when it comes to quality. If you want to be serious about it and impartial , the MVFC and CAA are the two heavyweight conferences. Everyone else is on a lower tier. But what you can't see to grasp is that in a NATIONAL PLAYOFF , you can't have teams that are .500 from a dominate conference over teams who have 8 or 9 wins and have followed the traditional formula to guarantee a playoff bid.

If that is the case , just be the conf champs and all the teams from the MVFC and CAA.
I would put recent Big Sky of 2017 and 2018 in a firm 3rd place. And I had Southern as having improved (from losing best teams to FBS) until this year .. for me, they slipped to clear 4th along side Southland.

From there, it drops off quickly. Which is really my point when it comes to selection committee looking at # teams from each conference .. and learning from past mistakes. This year, if I'm on the committee, I'm looking at MVFC and CAA as locks at 4-5 bid conferences ... and it must be proven they deserve less. I look at Big Sky as 3-4 bid conference. Southland and Southern as 2-3 bid conferences. And everyone else as 1 bid .. unless exceptions can be demonstrated otherwise. But all of this having to do with SOS both in and out of conference .. quality wins and quality losses, versus bad wins and bad losses.

The computers aren't 100% accurate, but they can weigh every game outcome and margin infinitely better than any human mind. Computers should help support an other subjective process. I don't know how anyone with good intentions to fine the best 20 FCS teams can do this without computer rankings, especially SOS when comparing 9-2 in a weak conference to 7-4 in toughest conference. Computers should NOT make the decisions, they should fully support the people struggling to make those decisions. Why anyone genuinely trying to do the right thing, but not want objective data to help them make difficult decisions, is beyond me.

[Redbird 4th & short]

All of this.

And don't sleep on Murray State. They've won 4 straight and seemingly figured out an offense. What if they were to beat JSU and/or SEMO at home? A 7-4 or 8-3 OVC team who lost 49-10 to a 1-6 SIU....:D

Almost everyone lays an egg or 2 .. that was a huge egg, but it was also earlier in season when SIU looked much better. If that is their only weak loss, and it was week 2, and theyve clearly improved over season ... it is easier to justify giving them a mulligan there. I think the entire season resume counts, but more weight should be given to 2nd half of season over 1st half.

[MR. CHICKEN]

There are probably a half dozen high school teams in North Carolina who could beat ECU - it may be an "FBS win" but it isn't worth much.

.....NEW HAPSHIRE'S....DUBBYAH.....OVERAH.....GEORGIA SOUTHERN....LAST SEASON.....WORKED OUT WELL....FOR..WILDCATS.......AWK!

[Professor]

Almost everyone lays an egg or 2 .. that was a huge egg, but it was also earlier in season when SIU looked much better. If that is their only weak loss, and it was week 2, and theyve clearly improved over season ... it is easier to justify giving them a mulligan there. I think the entire season resume counts, but more weight should be given to 2nd half of season over 1st half.


Hmm interesting . Seems like your contradicting yourself

[Professor Chaos]

I'm not surprised, its too much to ask for the FCS to get an extra 8 min of air time for a SECOND ranking. They need to fill that up with how much Nick Sabans emergency grocery store run will affect his mood before the Mississippi state game
Yeah, they claim they want to be transparent but I think releasing that ranking just a few days before Selection Sunday showed how they were still flying from the seat of their pants even at that point since they still hadn't all hunkered down in a room yet to bang out the bracket.

I remember back in 2016 NDSU was #3 in their rankings that were released just a few days before the final regular season Saturday of the year. They beat Indiana St on that Saturday who finished 4-7 (2-6) that year and then the next morning they were the #1 seed when the bracket was released moving above both Jacksonville St and EWU, neither of whom lost. Naturally, the comments from the critics were along the lines "wow... I guess beating a below average Indiana St is really impressive to them". I would guess that the real reason is they still hadn't sat down as a group and hashed out the resumes of each of the teams in consideration and when they did things changed for more reasons than just what had happened that last regular season Saturday.

My recollection is foggy but I think I remember the 2016 playoff selection committee chair saying that they hadn't even discussed any teams as a group yet when those first rankings came out. Each selection committee member had just had discussions with their respective regional advisory committees and then voted on all the teams nationally.

For a good chuckle check out the ensuing AGS thread from that first set of rankings back in 2016: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?188124-Selection-Committee-s-Top-10-11-3-16

[kalm]

Our comprehension is very good when it comes to quality. If you want to be serious about it and impartial , the MVFC and CAA are the two heavyweight conferences. Everyone else is on a lower tier. But what you can't see to grasp is that in a NATIONAL PLAYOFF , you can't have teams that are .500 from a dominate conference over teams who have 8 or 9 wins and have followed the traditional formula to guarantee a playoff bid.

If that is the case , just be the conf champs and all the teams from the MVFC and CAA.

The BSC is a close 3rd and last year was rated by Massey and Sagarin ahead of the CAA for at least a few weeks. If you fed the Big Sky a steady diet of NEC, MEAC, Ivy, and Patriots OOC and in the opening round of the playoffs year in and year out they’d be even with the CAA if not ahead.

But conference affiliation shouldn’t matter much. If 40 years from now, 7 MEAC teams are the most derserving for at-larges, so be it.

[MR. CHICKEN]

The committee's job is not to create a greater breadth of field.
That's the job of the weaker conferences.


.......NCAA...WANTS A.......COLLEGE PLAYOFF.....FOOTBALL EXPERIENCE FO' ALL.......SAN DIEGO...SEEMS TA OWN......BIG SKY AT LARGES......AN' LOTTAH CONCEIVED WEAK CONFERENCE REPS.....HAVE SHOWED UP IN ROUND ONE.....PUT SCARES ON TEAMS......AWK!

[Thumper 76]

Hell, put A&T in. I don't have them in my top 25 after two terrible losses. That said, I like each conference getting a rep in. If you're that much on the bubble anyways you probably didn't deserve to be in the field in the first place.*


*I will still likely bitch and moan about at large selections when the time comes

Sent from my SM-T580 using Tapatalk

[AmsterBison]

Gotta say, the more people dump on NC A&T, the more I want to see them get in the playoffs and embarrass somebody. Granted, I was not thrilled about the possibility of them having a #1 ranking in the polls at the end of the season, but NC A&T getting into the playoffs would not be a travesty (unlike Jacksonville State getting a seed.) Heck, I'm not thrilled about the idea that a team that got beat by freaking Georgia State could get top 4 seed either - even though I watched that game and they should have won by 2 TDs.

For those screaming, "Oh, NC A&T could never embarrass somebody in the playoffs! They're too poopy!", may I remind you that San Diego has butchered Big Sky teams in each of the last two seasons?

There, I'm done. Pretty sure that I've offended everybody.

[OhioHen]

Our comprehension is very good when it comes to quality. If you want to be serious about it and impartial , the MVFC and CAA are the two heavyweight conferences. Everyone else is on a lower tier. But what you can't see to grasp is that in a NATIONAL PLAYOFF , you can't have teams that are .500 from a dominate conference over teams who have 8 or 9 wins and have followed the traditional formula to guarantee a playoff bid.

If that is the case , just be the conf champs and all the teams from the MVFC and CAA.

For reference in favor of middle of the pack teams from dominant conferences getting in over teams with much better records from the so-called lesser conferences, one only has to look as far as the NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament. Every year a team that is 17-13 overall with an 8-10 record in the ACC/B1G/SEC makes the Big Dance while some other school at 27-3 that loses their conference championship game goes to the NIT.

The committees in both cases are tasked with identifying the best teams, not with rewarding a good record against mediocre competition.

[kalm]

That's the job of the weaker conferences.


.......NCAA...WANTS A.......COLLEGE PLAYOFF.....FOOTBALL EXPERIENCE FO' ALL.......SAN DIEGO...SEEMS TA OWN......BIG SKY AT LARGES......AN' LOTTAH CONCEIVED WEAK CONFERENCE REPS.....HAVE SHOWED UP IN ROUND ONE.....PUT SCARES ON TEAMS......AWK!

A bit of an outlier but yes. Just like Colgate owning the CAA in ‘15.

[Reign of Terrier]

Couple thoughts on this thread:

1) I think 9-2 A&T should get in, but not as a seed, obviously. There are lots of examples of MEAC at-large teams getting in. Though there's sparse evidence of one doing well...it only takes one. I remember when the OVC went, like, a decade without winning a playoff game that was against a full scholarship opponent not from the OVC and then Jacksonville State went HAM on some teams.

2) I think we're going to have an interesting southeastern region, if there is such a thing. Strong possibility that Kennesaw, Wofford, A&T, and Elon are all in the same bracket.

3) For the socon, I'm obviously one of the few homers for them, but I think the only team that will deserve a seed is Wofford if and only if we win out. We should be no higher than 6 in the best case scenario (and that's just on the top of my head, I'm not comparing resumes). But no one else in the socon is good enough from a recency and resume perspective. I think the committee weighs recent playoff success heavily (in the sense that it helps, but doesn't necessarily hurt); there were a lot of 8-3 Wofford teams with only 7 D1 wins and not too flashy resumes. We got in because of our playoff rep IMO

4) If Colgate only loses to Army, they deserve a seed, even if it's only the 8 seed. Yes their schedule is meh, but their defense is unequivocally impressive.

5) It's much too early to say anything about seeding. Lots of football to be played.

6) I don't think most people care about seeds. I know people care for playoff home games and what not, but what's most interesting to me (and others) and perhaps the greatest point of contention online or otherwise is the "bubble watch." Reasonable people come to consensus on the seeds (usually), which is why AGS is good at predicting them, but there seems to be capriciousness when it comes to the last few teams in.

[WestCoastAggie]

Couple thoughts on this thread:

1) I think 9-2 A&T should get in, but not as a seed, obviously. There are lots of examples of MEAC at-large teams getting in. Though there's sparse evidence of one doing well...it only takes one. I remember when the OVC went, like, a decade without winning a playoff game that was against a full scholarship opponent not from the OVC and then Jacksonville State went HAM on some teams.

2) I think we're going to have an interesting southeastern region, if there is such a thing. Strong possibility that Kennesaw, Wofford, A&T, and Elon are all in the same bracket.

3) For the socon, I'm obviously one of the few homers for them, but I think the only team that will deserve a seed is Wofford if and only if we win out. We should be no higher than 6 in the best case scenario (and that's just on the top of my head, I'm not comparing resumes). But no one else in the socon is good enough from a recency and resume perspective. I think the committee weighs recent playoff success heavily (in the sense that it helps, but doesn't necessarily hurt); there were a lot of 8-3 Wofford teams with only 7 D1 wins and not too flashy resumes. We got in because of our playoff rep IMO

4) If Colgate only loses to Army, they deserve a seed, even if it's only the 8 seed. Yes their schedule is meh, but their defense is unequivocally impressive.

5) It's much too early to say anything about seeding. Lots of football to be played.

6) I don't think most people care about seeds. I know people care for playoff home games and what not, but what's most interesting to me (and others) and perhaps the greatest point of contention online or otherwise is the "bubble watch." Reasonable people come to consensus on the seeds (usually), which is why AGS is good at predicting them, but there seems to be capriciousness when it comes to the last few teams in.

A quadrant with KSU, Wofford, Elon and A&T would be pretty compelling. One of those 4 could upset the MVFC applecart of sorts and make it to the semis. In fact, I'd go as far to say KSU is a real dark horse to dethrone NDSU.

[Reign of Terrier]

A quadrant with KSU, Wofford, Elon and A&T would be pretty compelling. One of those 4 could upset the MVFC applecart of sorts and make it to the semis. In fact, I'd go as far to say KSU is a real dark horse to dethrone NDSU.

I would not. I think any team in that bracket, including A&T with all its controversy would be a better defense than Kennesaw has seen in the history of their program.

I was at the last time A&T played Wofford in the playoffs. It was fun and our first ever playoff winxthumbsupxwould love Wofford to play any of these teams (including A&T) as I'm driving distance from all of them.

[Professor]

I would not. I think any team in that bracket, including A&T with all its controversy would be a better defense than Kennesaw has seen in the history of their program.

I was at the last time A&T played Wofford in the playoffs. It was fun and our first ever playoff winxthumbsupxwould love Wofford to play any of these teams (including A&T) as I'm driving distance from all of them.

Was there as well. Would love for that rematch. We are tired of beating up on Elon lol

[WestCoastAggie]

Was there as well. Would love for that rematch. We are tired of beating up on Elon lol

You know Elon is good, and will be good in '19?

[Professor]

You know Elon is good, and will be good in '19?

I'm aware. We beat Elon in 13-15 . This will be the last game of the 4 year deal. We will win

[Redbird 4th & short]

I'm aware. We beat Elon in 13-15 . This will be the last game of the 4 year deal. We will win
since wins and losses are all that matters ... those 3 Elon games went as follows:

- 2013 .. you beat a 2-10 Elon team by 13 points at home
- 2014 .. you beat a 1-10 Elon team by 5 points on road
- 2015 .. you beat a 4-7 Elon team by 7 points on road

Massey had them ranked #61 in 2015 ... their high point, as they fell back to 2-9 in 2016 ranking around #90 .. just like 2013-14. So that is level of team you were barely beating then.

So the other poster was pointing out fact that Elon has gotten better since 2013-15 era .. we'll see what they look like next season, but looking good so far this year, same last year.

[Professor]

since wins and losses are all that matters ... those 3 Elon games went as follows:

- 2013 .. you beat a 2-10 Elon team by 13 points at home
- 2014 .. you beat a 1-10 Elon team by 5 points on road
- 2015 .. you beat a 4-7 Elon team by 7 points on road

Massey had them ranked #61 in 2015 ... their high point, as they fell back to 2-9 in 2016 ranking around #90 .. just like 2013-14. So that is level of team you were barely beating then.

So the other poster was pointing out fact that Elon has gotten better since 2013-15 era .. we'll see what they look like next season, but looking good so far this year, same last year.

You can pull up any numerical rankings that you want. The point is. We won game. Elon ain't changed that much. They have had 1 winning season in the last 5 years. This year will be 2 for 6 ( If they make it) . Just like you say , they have gotten better so have we.

2016 - 2-9
2017 - 8-4
2018 - Currently 5-2

[Reign of Terrier]

On one hand I agree that Elon is probably tougher than some A&T fans think.

On another, appealing to computer rankings as if they're gospel for past teams when looking at their record is sufficient is overreading at least and hella pedantic at worst

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[MacThor]

For reference in favor of middle of the pack teams from dominant conferences getting in over teams with much better records from the so-called lesser conferences, one only has to look as far as the NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament. Every year a team that is 17-13 overall with an 8-10 record in the ACC/B1G/SEC makes the Big Dance while some other school at 27-3 that loses their conference championship game goes to the NIT.

The committees in both cases are tasked with identifying the best teams, not with rewarding a good record against mediocre competition.

The committee is tasked with putting together the best field, and there is some room for subjectivity there. If not, they'd just let the computers populate the field.

There are plenty of people who would rather see a 27-3 team in March Madness than the 9th place ACC team. Neither side is "wrong."

Sometimes the committee slips up and gives an undeserving (by most objective measures) 3rd place CAA basketball team an at-large bid and they run all the way to the Final Four.

[Redbird 4th & short]

On one hand I agree that Elon is probably tougher than some A&T fans think.

On another, appealing to computer rankings as if they're gospel for past teams when looking at their record is sufficient is overreading at least and hella pedantic at worst

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

i don't look at it as 100% gospel. I look at it to fill in blanks for things my brain can't possibly recall or compute. But when someone brags about beating Elon from 2013-15 ... a little objective context helps ... no ??

Better than doing nothing to fact check it, and just walking away thinking .. wow, they beat a playoff team 3 straight years .. that is very impressive. They must be good.

That would be very flawed uninformed thinking. That is why I lean on Massey Composite of 37 polls, and Massey or Sagarin if the composite is not easily available.

[Redbird 4th & short]

The committee is tasked with putting together the best field, and there is some room for subjectivity there. If not, they'd just let the computers populate the field.

There are plenty of people who would rather see a 27-3 team in March Madness than the 9th place ACC team. Neither side is "wrong."

Sometimes the committee slips up and gives an undeserving (by most objective measures) 3rd place CAA basketball team an at-large bid and they run all the way to the Final Four.
completely agree the playoff selections should be made by humans, but what is wrong with getting help from computers that provide objective data.

And one important distinction I would cite between March Madness and FCS .. both traditional tournaments, unlike FBS bowls. With Basketball, you have 68 teams getting selected .. about 30+ auto bids and the rest at large bids. The likelihood of a top 50 team not getting in is very small. In FCS, there are 24 teams, with 10 autobids, so only 14 at large. So it is quite possible a top 25 or eve a top 20 team might get screwed out of a playoff bid and opportunity to compete in playoffs. Certainly, a team good enough to get to top 16 or top 8 ... which is not only important to the players, coaches, fans affected that year. But it also affects their ability to recruit future classes. In some cases, coaches lose jobs when they don't make playoffs.

I know some people say who cares ... but I strongly disagree. Why have a playoff system at all, if you don't care who or how they select teams. Then ask the teams who get screwed .. or more specifically, ask the seniors on those teams how they feel about whether they got a fair shake ... it matters to those teams and their fans. The committee ought to make every effort to get it close to right.

So it matters .. and it sure isn't up to forum posters here that say, it doesn't matter .. we're the least important people in that regard.

[POD Knows]

A quadrant with KSU, Wofford, Elon and A&T would be pretty compelling. One of those 4 could upset the MVFC applecart of sorts and make it to the semis. In fact, I'd go as far to say KSU is a real dark horse to dethrone NDSU.That horse is do dark it is invisible. Going to come in to NDSU with nothing but a run game, good luck

[MacThor]

what is wrong with getting help from computers that provide objective data.Nothing. I don't think the committee is completely disregarding the computer rankings.


Certainly, a team good enough to get to top 16 or top 8 ... which is not only important to the players, coaches, fans affected that year. But it also affects their ability to recruit future classes. In some cases, coaches lose jobs when they don't make playoffs. I can't think of a single example of a coach whose team got "snubbed" losing their job over it. Can you?


I know some people say who cares ... but I strongly disagree. Why have a playoff system at all, if you don't care who or how they select teams. I must have missed this statement.

Then ask the teams who get screwed .. or more specifically, ask the seniors on those teams how they feel about whether they got a fair shake ... it matters to those teams and their fans. The committee ought to make every effort to get it close to right.I believe they do. There are always going to be debates over last two in/first two out, and they're never going to satisfy 100% of the fan base. But they certainly get it "close to right."

The SOS argument can be taken too far and become punitive. Teams have no control over how their opponents do, and they're forced to play 2/3 or more of their games in their conference, regardless. There is literally a ceiling on how far these teams can climb up the computer rankings, no matter how well they play. Personally I'd rather see a 9-2/7-1 OVC runner-up in the field than a 6-5/4-4 team from one of our conferences, even if that team is ranked higher by the computers.

[CappinHard]

1 day away from the first top 10. Predictions?

[Schism55]

1 day away from the first top 10. Predictions?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSPNQ82Sq4E

[katss07]

1 day away from the first top 10. Predictions?
Ok, I’ll bite. Flame away my friends...but keep in mind this is what I think the committee will do, not what I’d do.

1. NDSU
2. JMU
3. Kennesaw
4. EWU
5. Davis
6. Colgate
7. Delaware
8. Weber
9. Elon
10. Jacksonville St

Dumb, huh? Well thats just how the committee likes it!

[dewey]

That horse is do dark it is invisible. Going to come in to NDSU with nothing but a run game, good luck

I am sure you remember this but the 2012 GSU team gave NDSU all they could handle and they were a triple option under center team. The key to that GSU team in my memory was Jerrick McKinnon at QB. He could get to the edge so quickly he really put a lot of pressure on the NDSU defense.

I am not saying it is impossible for a one dimensional run team to beat NDSU but...a first time team coming to the Fargodome or Fargo South (Frisco) is at a distinct disadvantage from the get go with the playoff experience NDSU has.

Dewey

[Reign of Terrier]

Yeah Wofford had a one dimensional offense (even by option standards, we had Eric Breitenstein and a prayer) and a strong defense and wr gave them a good game.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[CappinHard]

Ok, I’ll bite. Flame away my friends...but keep in mind this is what I think the committee will do, not what I’d do.

1. NDSU
2. JMU
3. Kennesaw
4. EWU
5. Davis
6. Colgate
7. Delaware
8. Weber
9. Elon
10. Jacksonville St

Dumb, huh? Well thats just how the committee likes it!

Is this serious or just trolling?

If serious... Why do you think they would completely leave out a team ranked 7th in both Coaches and Stats, 3rd in SRS, and 4th in Massey?

Imo, it will go like this:

1. NDSU
2. JMU
3. Kennesaw
4. Davis
5. EWU
6. Weber
7. SDSU
8. Elon
9. Wofford
10. JSU

[BisonTru]

1 day away from the first top 10. Predictions?

1. North Dakota State
2. James Madison
3. UC Davis
4. Kennesaw State
5. Colgate
6. South Dakota St
7. Delaware
8. Weber State
9. Wofford
10. Towson

I am fairly confident in 1-3. I don't think any team belongs above those three. Kennesaw State I think is generous but they are hard to overlook. Colgate I'm a lot higher than most. I think the committee might agree. I really debated between Towson and Eastern Washington. GG's injury kind of factored in. I'm not sure if the committee will take that into consideration.