2018 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (V 4.0)

[grizband]

2018 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (V 4.0)


Notes:
Every season I compile a list of FCS teams still capable of reaching 7 Division 1 wins. Although 7 wins is no longer the official plateau for at-large selection, it is highly unlikely a 6-5 team will be selected. The list is for reference only, and is not meant to predict the probability of the teams selected. It will be updated weekly, as teams are eliminated, or teams secure their conference auto-bid.

Teams are organized by conference, although Ivy League teams are not included since their conference does not participate in the FCS playoffs. MEAC and SWAC teams are listed since their second place teams are technically eligible to receive a playoff berth. However, Southern and Grambling from the SWAC are not listed, due to their schedule conflict with the Bayou Classic; Alabama State also has a Thanksgiving conflict.

Houston Baptist is on probation, and therefore ineligible for the postseason.

North Alabama is not eligible for the playoffs, during their FCS transition from Division II.

Key:
Teams preceded by an asterisk (*) have already reached 7 Division 1 wins.
Teams listed in bold need to win all remaining games to reach 7 Division I wins.
Teams followed by a hash tag (#) have played a lower division team
Teams followed by a plus sign (+) have an FBS team remaining on their schedule.
Teams followed by an percent sign (%) had a game cancelled or postponed


Teams with 7 Division 1 Wins:
*North Dakota State (7-0)

Big Sky


UC Davis (6-1) must go 1-3
Eastern Washington (5-2)# must go 3-1
Weber State (5-2) must go 2-2
Montana State (4-3) must go 3-1
Montana (4-3) must go 3-1

Idaho State (4-3)# must go 4-0
Northern Arizona (3-4) must go 4-0

Cal Poly (2-5) eliminated
Idaho (2-4)#+ eliminated
Sacramento State (2-4)# eliminated
Southern Utah (0-5) eliminated
Portland State (1-4)# eliminated
Northern Colorado (0-5) eliminated

Big South
Kennesaw State (6-1)# must go 2-2
Monmouth (5-2) must go 2-2


Campbell (5-2)# must go 4-0
Charleston Southern (3-3)#% must go 5-0

Presbyterian (2-2)#% eliminated
Gardner-Webb (1-4)# eliminated

Colonial
Towson (6-1) must go 1-3
James Madison (5-2) must go 2-2
Stony Brook (6-2) must go 1-2
Elon (5-2)% must go 2-1
Rhode Island (4-3) must go 3-1
Maine (4-3) must go 3-1
Delaware (5-2) must go 2-2

Villanova (3-4) must go 4-0

Richmond (3-5) eliminated
Albany (2-5) eliminated
William & Mary (2-4)% eliminated
New Hampshire (1-5) eliminated

Independents
North Dakota (5-2) must go 2-2

Hampton (1-3)% eliminated (only scheduled 6 Division 1 games)


MEAC
North Carolina A&T (6-2) must go 1-2
Florida A&M (5-2)# must go 3-1

Norfolk State (3-3)#%+ must go 5-0
Bethune-Cookman (4-4)# must go 4-0
Howard (3-3)% must go 4-0

Morgan State (2-5) eliminated
South Carolina State (1-5)% eliminated
Savannah State (0-4)% eliminated
Delaware State (0-4)# eliminated
North Carolina Central (1-3)#% eliminated

Missouri Valley
Illinois State (5-2)# must go 3-1
South Dakota State (4-2) must go 3-1
Northern Iowa (4-3) must go 3-1


South Dakota (3-4) must go 4-0
Missouri State (4-3)# must go 4-0
Youngstown State (3-4) must go 4-0
Western Illinois (3-4) must go 4-0

Indiana State (2-4)# eliminated
Southern Illinois (1-5) eliminated


Northeast
Bryant (5-2)# must go 3-1
Sacred Heart (4-3) must go 3-1

Duquesne (5-3)# must go 3-0

Central Connecticut (4-4)# eliminated
Saint Francis (2-4)# eliminated
Robert Morris (1-3) eliminated (cannot reach 7 Division 1 wins)
Wagner (1-4) eliminated

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State (5-2) must go 2-2
Southeast Missouri (5-2) must go 2-2
Murray State (4-3) must go 3-1

Eastern Kentucky (3-4) must go 4-0
Austin Peay (3-4) must go 4-0

Eastern Illinois (1-6) eliminated
Tennessee-Martin (1-5) eliminated
Tennessee State (2-3)% eliminated
Tennessee Tech (0-5) eliminated

Patriot
Colgate (6-0)+% must go 1-3

Georgetown (4-4) must go 3-0

Lafayette (1-5) eliminated
Lehigh (1-5) eliminated
Fordham (0-5) eliminated
Bucknell (1-5) eliminated
Holy Cross (1-5) eliminated

Pioneer
San Diego (5-2)# must go 3-1

Stetson (5-1)#% must go 4-0
Drake (4-2)# must go 4-0
Marist (3-4) must go 4-0

Dayton (3-5) eliminated
Butler (3-4)# eliminated
Davidson (5-2)# eliminated
Morehead State (1-4) eliminated
Jacksonville (1-3) eliminated
Valparaiso (0-5) eliminated

Southern
ETSU (6-2)# must go 2-1
Chattanooga (5-2) must go 2-2
Wofford (5-2) must go 2-2
Mercer (4-3) must go 3-1

Citadel (2-4)+% must go 5-0

Furman (2-4)% eliminated
Western Carolina (3-4)#+ eliminated
Samford (1-4)# eliminated
VMI (0-5)# eliminated

Southland
McNeese State (5-2) must go 2-2
Sam Houston State (4-3) must go 3-1
Central Arkansas (5-2) must go 2-2
Nicholls (4-3) must go 3-1
Incarnate Word (4-3)+ must go 3-2

Southeastern Louisiana (3-5) eliminated
Northwestern State (2-5) eliminated
Stephen F. Austin (1-4) eliminated
Abilene Christian (2-4) eliminated
Lamar (1-4)# eliminated

SWAC
Alcorn State (6-2)# must go 2-1

Jackson State (3-3)% must go 4-0
Prairie View A&M (3-4) must go 4-0

Alabama A&M (3-4)# eliminated
MVSU (0-5) eliminated
Texas Southern (1-4) eliminated
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (1-4)# eliminated

[kalm]

Good stuff, GB!

[Milktruck74]

2018 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (V 4.0)


Notes:
Every season I compile a list of FCS teams still capable of reaching 7 Division 1 wins. Although 7 wins is no longer the official plateau for at-large selection, it is highly unlikely a 6-5 team will be selected. The list is for reference only, and is not meant to predict the probability of the teams selected. It will be updated weekly, as teams are eliminated, or teams secure their conference auto-bid.

Teams are organized by conference, although Ivy League teams are not included since their conference does not participate in the FCS playoffs. MEAC and SWAC teams are listed since their second place teams are technically eligible to receive a playoff berth. However, Southern and Grambling from the SWAC are not listed, due to their schedule conflict with the Bayou Classic; Alabama State also has a Thanksgiving conflict.

Houston Baptist is on probation, and therefore ineligible for the postseason.

North Alabama is not eligible for the playoffs, during their FCS transition from Division II.

Key:
Teams preceded by an asterisk (*) have already reached 7 Division 1 wins.
Teams listed in bold need to win all remaining games to reach 7 Division I wins.
Teams followed by a hash tag (#) have played a lower division team
Teams followed by a plus sign (+) have an FBS team remaining on their schedule.
Teams followed by an percent sign (%) had a game cancelled or postponed


Teams with 7 Division 1 Wins:
*North Dakota State (7-0)

Big Sky


UC Davis (6-1) must go 1-3
Eastern Washington (5-2)# must go 3-1
Weber State (5-2) must go 2-2
Montana State (4-3) must go 3-1
Montana (4-3) must go 3-1

Idaho State (4-3)# must go 4-0
Northern Arizona (3-4) must go 4-0

Cal Poly (2-5) eliminated
Idaho (2-4)#+ eliminated
Sacramento State (2-4)# eliminated
Southern Utah (0-5) eliminated
Portland State (1-4)# eliminated
Northern Colorado (0-5) eliminated

Big South
Kennesaw State (6-1)# must go 2-2
Monmouth (5-2) must go 2-2


Campbell (5-2)# must go 4-0
Charleston Southern (3-3)#% must go 5-0

Presbyterian (2-2)#% eliminated
Gardner-Webb (1-4)# eliminated

Colonial
Towson (6-1) must go 1-3
James Madison (5-2) must go 2-2
Stony Brook (6-2) must go 1-2
Elon (5-2)% must go 2-1
Rhode Island (4-3) must go 3-1
Maine (4-3) must go 3-1
Delaware (5-2) must go 2-2

Villanova (3-4) must go 4-0

Richmond (3-5) eliminated
Albany (2-5) eliminated
William & Mary (2-4)% eliminated
New Hampshire (1-5) eliminated

Independents
North Dakota (5-2) must go 2-2

Hampton (1-3)% eliminated (only scheduled 6 Division 1 games)


MEAC
North Carolina A&T (6-2) must go 1-2
Florida A&M (5-2)# must go 3-1

Norfolk State (3-3)#%+ must go 5-0
Bethune-Cookman (4-4)# must go 4-0
Howard (3-3)% must go 4-0

Morgan State (2-5) eliminated
South Carolina State (1-5)% eliminated
Savannah State (0-4)% eliminated
Delaware State (0-4)# eliminated
North Carolina Central (1-3)#% eliminated

Missouri Valley
Illinois State (5-2)# must go 3-1
South Dakota State (4-2) must go 3-1
Northern Iowa (4-3) must go 3-1


South Dakota (3-4) must go 4-0
Missouri State (4-3)# must go 4-0
Youngstown State (3-4) must go 4-0
Western Illinois (3-4) must go 4-0

Indiana State (2-4)# eliminated
Southern Illinois (1-5) eliminated


Northeast
Bryant (5-2)# must go 3-1
Sacred Heart (4-3) must go 3-1

Duquesne (5-3)# must go 3-0

Central Connecticut (4-4)# eliminated
Saint Francis (2-4)# eliminated
Robert Morris (1-3) eliminated (cannot reach 7 Division 1 wins)
Wagner (1-4) eliminated

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State (5-2) must go 2-2
Southeast Missouri (5-2) must go 2-2
Murray State (4-3) must go 3-1

Eastern Kentucky (3-4) must go 4-0
Austin Peay (3-4) must go 4-0

Eastern Illinois (1-6) eliminated
Tennessee-Martin (1-5) eliminated
Tennessee State (2-3)% eliminated
Tennessee Tech (0-5) eliminated

Patriot
Colgate (6-0)% must go 1-3

Georgetown (4-4) must go 3-0

Lafayette (1-5) eliminated
Lehigh (1-5) eliminated
Fordham (0-5) eliminated
Bucknell (1-5) eliminated
Holy Cross (1-5) eliminated

Pioneer
San Diego (5-2)# must go 3-1

Stetson (5-1)#% must go 4-0
Drake (4-2)# must go 4-0
Marist (3-4) must go 4-0

Dayton (3-5) eliminated
Butler (3-4)# eliminated
Davidson (5-2)# eliminated
Morehead State (1-4) eliminated
Jacksonville (1-3) eliminated
Valparaiso (0-5) eliminated

You left off the SoCon. Based on the preSeason picks vs where we are now.....I don't blame you!

[Daytripper]

No Southland?

[TheValleyRaider]

Colgate should have a +, their last game is at Army

xthumbsupx

[PAllen]

I understand the methodology, but you can just go ahead and list Colgate as the only possible at-large from the PL.

[grizband]

You left off the SoCon. Based on the preSeason picks vs where we are now.....I don't blame you!
Added them back to the list!

- - - Updated - - -


No Southland?
Updated the list, my mistake!

[grizband]

Colgate should have a +, their last game is at Army

xthumbsupx
Thanks, the list has been updated.

[World]

Truly excellent work, grizband

thanks

[grizband]

These teams could reach 7 Division 1 wins next week:

UC Davis
Towson
Stony Brook
Colgate

[McNeese72]

No Southland?

None of us deserve to be in the playoffs!! ;)

Doc

[Daytripper]

None of us deserve to be in the playoffs!! ;)

Doc

Truth!

[Professor]

These teams could reach 7 Division 1 wins next week:

UC Davis
Towson
Stony Brook
North Carolina A&T
Colgate

A&T won't be until Nov 3rd. We are on a bye

[grizband]

A&T won't be until Nov 3rd. We are on a bye
Missed that; thanks for the heads up, Prof!

[geaux_sioux]

UND has no shot to make it at 7-4 IMO. Gotta go 8-3 to have a chance.

[Professor Chaos]

UND has no shot to make it at 7-4 IMO. Gotta go 8-3 to have a chance.
UND would need some help from Huntsville to bolster their case if they end up at 7-4. Not sure if that'll come at this point.

[Reign of Terrier]

Great work as always, but I think we're getting to the point in the season where, formatting wise, it's easier on the eyes to just see who still has a chance, removing the eliminated teams all together.

[grizband]

Great work as always, but I think we're getting to the point in the season where, formatting wise, it's easier on the eyes to just see who still has a chance, removing the eliminated teams all together.
I agree, and was planning to start that format next week; I was waiting until the first team reached 7 D-1 wins.

[hktribefan]

WM is currently 3-4, not 2-4. Not that it matters since we can only get to 6-4 this season.


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