2018 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (V 3.0)

[grizband]

2018 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (V 3.0)

Notes:
Every season I compile a list of FCS teams still capable of reaching 7 Division 1 wins. Although 7 wins is no longer the official plateau for at-large selection, it is highly unlikely a 6-5 team will be selected. The list is for reference only, and is not meant to predict the probability of the teams selected. It will be updated weekly, as teams are eliminated, or teams secure their conference auto-bid.

Teams are organized by conference, although Ivy League teams are not included since their conference does not participate in the FCS playoffs. MEAC and SWAC teams are listed since their second place teams are technically eligible to receive a playoff berth. However, Southern and Grambling from the SWAC are not listed, due to their schedule conflict with the Bayou Classic; Alabama State also has a Thanksgiving conflict.

Houston Baptist is on probation, and therefore ineligible for the postseason.

North Alabama is not eligible for the playoffs, during their FCS transition from Division II.

Key:
Teams preceded by an asterisk (*) have already reached 7 Division 1 wins.
Teams listed in bold need to win all remaining games to reach 7 Division I wins.
Teams followed by a hashtag (#) have played a lower division team
Teams followed by a plus sign (+) have an FBS team remaining on their schedule.

Big Sky


UC Davis (5-1) must go 2-3
Eastern Washington (5-2)# must go 3-1
Idaho State (4-2)#+ must go 4-1
Weber State (4-2) must go 3-2
Montana State (4-2) must go 3-2
Montana (4-3) must go 3-1
Northern Arizona (3-3) must go 4-1

Cal Poly (2-4) must go 5-0

Idaho (2-4)#+ eliminated
Sacramento State (2-4)# eliminated
Southern Utah (0-5) eliminated
Portland State (1-4)# eliminated
Northern Colorado (0-5) eliminated

Big South
Kennesaw State (6-1)# must go 2-2
Campbell (5-1)# must go 4-1
Monmouth (4-2) must go 3-2

Charleston Southern (2-3)# must go 6-0

Presbyterian (2-2)# eliminated
Gardner-Webb (1-4)# eliminated

Colonial
Towson (5-1) must go 2-3
James Madison (5-2) must go 2-2
Stony Brook (5-2) must go 2-2
Elon (4-2) must go 3-1
Rhode Island (4-2) must go 3-2
Maine (4-2) must go 3-2
Delaware (4-2) must go 3-2

Villanova (3-4) must go 4-0
Richmond (3-4) must go 4-0
Albany (2-4) must go 5-0

William & Mary (2-4) eliminated
New Hampshire (1-5) eliminated

Independents
North Dakota (4-2) must go 3-2

Hampton (1-3) eliminated (only scheduled 6 Division 1 games)

MEAC
North Carolina A&T (5-2) must go 2-2
Florida A&M (5-2)# must go 3-1
Bethune-Cookman (4-3)# must go 4-1
Norfolk State (3-2)# must go 5-1

Howard (2-3) must go 5-0
Morgan State (2-4) must go 5-0

South Carolina State (1-5) eliminated
Savannah State (0-4) eliminated
Delaware State (0-4)# eliminated
North Carolina Central (1-3)# eliminated

Missouri Valley
North Dakota State (6-0) must go 1-4
Illinois State (5-1)# must go 3-2
South Dakota State (4-1) must go 3-2
Missouri State (4-2)# must go 4-1
South Dakota (3-3) must go 4-1
Northern Iowa (3-3) must go 4-1

Youngstown State (2-4) must go 5-0
Western Illinois (2-4) must go 5-0

Indiana State (2-4)# eliminated
Southern Illinois (1-5) eliminated


Northeast
Bryant (4-2)# must go 4-1
Sacred Heart (3-3) must go 4-1

Duquesne (4-3)# must go 4-0
Central Connecticut (4-3)# must go 4-0

Saint Francis (2-4)# eliminated
Robert Morris (1-3) eliminated (cannot reach 7 Division 1 wins)
Wagner (1-4) eliminated

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State (5-1) must go 2-3
Southeast Missouri (4-2) must go 3-2
Eastern Kentucky (3-3) must go 4-1
Murray State (3-3) must go 4-1

Austin Peay (3-4) must go 4-0

Eastern Illinois (1-6) eliminated
Tennessee-Martin (1-5) eliminated
Tennessee State (2-3) eliminated
Tennessee Tech (0-5) eliminated

Patriot
Colgate (6-0) must go 1-3

Georgetown (3-4) must go 4-0

Lafayette (1-5) eliminated
Lehigh (1-5) eliminated
Fordham (0-5) eliminated
Bucknell (1-5) eliminated
Holy Cross (1-5) eliminated

Pioneer
San Diego (4-2)# must go 4-1

Stetson (4-1)# must go 5-0
Drake (3-2)# must go 5-0
Butler (3-3)# must go 5-0
Dayton (3-4) must go 4-0
Marist (2-4) must go 5-0

Davidson (5-2)# eliminated
Morehead State (1-4) eliminated
Jacksonville (1-3) eliminated
Valpairaso (0-5) eliminated

Southern
ETSU (6-1)# must go 2-2
Chattanooga (5-2) must go 2-2
Wofford (4-2) must go 3-2
Mercer (3-3) must go 4-1

Western Carolina (3-3)#+ must go 5-0
Furman (2-3) must go 5-0
Citadel (1-4)+ must go 6-0

Samford (1-4)# eliminated
VMI (0-5)# eliminated

Southland
McNeese State (5-1) must go 2-3
Sam Houston State (4-2) must go 3-2
Central Arkansas (4-2) must go 3-2
Nicholls (4-3) must go 3-1
Incarnate Word (3-3)+ must go 4-2

Northwestern State (2-4) must go 5-0
Southeastern Louisiana (3-4) must go 4-0

Stephen F. Austin (1-4) eliminated
Abilene Christian (2-4) eliminated
Lamar (1-4)# eliminated

SWAC
Alcorn State (5-2)# must go 3-1
Jackson State (3-2) must go 4-1

Prairie View A&M (3-4) must go 4-0

Alabama A&M (3-4)# eliminated
MVSU (0-5) eliminated
Texas Southern (1-4) eliminated
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (1-4)# eliminated

[BEAR]

You already got 4 losses in the Southland you are already toast. xlolx

[grizband]

You already got 4 losses in the Southland you are already toast. xlolx
More than likely, yes!

[Catbooster]

It might be interesting in future weeks to note which teams had a game cancelled for the hurricane, since we don't know how the committee will handle that.

[grizband]

It might be interesting in future weeks to note which teams had a game cancelled for the hurricane, since we don't know how the committee will handle that.
I considered that, and will add the cancellation information for next week. Thanks for the suggestion.

[Professor Chaos]

Missouri St can go 7-4 with a D2 win and be in pretty comfortably I think. To get there they'd have to go 5-3 in the MVFC with wins over Northern Arizona, Illinois St, and then one other quality win (either UNI, SDSU, or NDSU).

[grizband]

Missouri St can go 7-4 with a D2 win and be in pretty comfortably I think. To get there they'd have to go 5-3 in the MVFC with wins over Northern Arizona, Illinois St, and then one other quality win (either UNI, SDSU, or NDSU).
All depends on the rest of FCS landscape - nothing happens in a vacuum - but they would certainly have a decent resume.

[ksu_owls]

Why is Kennesaw State bolded? Maybe I don't understand the formatting key.

[grizband]

Why is Kennesaw State bolded? Maybe I don't understand the formatting key.
No, that's just an error on my part; it's been corrected.

[Redbird 4th & short]

All depends on the rest of FCS landscape - nothing happens in a vacuum - but they would certainly have a decent resume.
in prior years, I would have agreed with Professor ... but this year agree with Griz fan ... the landscape has leveled too much. Colonial and Big Sky have closed gaps, so idea of 6-4 .. that includes MoST and my ISUr ... puts you on bubble from MVFC but does not get you in. Our FBS win will somewhat offset our useless NAIA win, but we lost to MoST .. so this is not the year for a 6-4 to get strong consideration unless all the losses are quality losses ... that is, competitive losses to top 10-15 type teams. 6-5 won't likely get any consideration unless it is 6 strong wins and 5 close losses to top 15 teams ... so not at all likely.

[Professor Chaos]

All depends on the rest of FCS landscape - nothing happens in a vacuum - but they would certainly have a decent resume.

in prior years, I would have agreed with Professor ... but this year agree with Griz fan ... the landscape has leveled too much. Colonial and Big Sky have closed gaps, so idea of 6-4 .. that includes MoST and my ISUr ... puts you on bubble from MVFC but does not get you in. Our FBS win will somewhat offset our useless NAIA win, but we lost to MoST .. so this is not the year for a 6-4 to get strong consideration unless all the losses are quality losses ... that is, competitive losses to top 10-15 type teams. 6-5 won't likely get any consideration unless it is 6 strong wins and 5 close losses to top 15 teams ... so not at all likely.
We'll see. I get the feeling they'll be in comfortably in that scenario but a lot will happen between then and now if they can get to 7-4. The biggest thing is they need NAU and ISUr to not fall off the map.

[FUGameBreaker]

Should be updated to show Citadel is eliminated, it says they must go 6-0, but they only have 5 games left before the playoffs begin xthumbsupx

[fmftballmgr]

2018 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (V 3.0)

Notes:
Every season I compile a list of FCS teams still capable of reaching 7 Division 1 wins. Although 7 wins is no longer the official plateau for at-large selection, it is highly unlikely a 6-5 team will be selected. The list is for reference only, and is not meant to predict the probability of the teams selected. It will be updated weekly, as teams are eliminated, or teams secure their conference auto-bid.

Teams are organized by conference, although Ivy League teams are not included since their conference does not participate in the FCS playoffs. MEAC and SWAC teams are listed since their second place teams are technically eligible to receive a playoff berth. However, Southern and Grambling from the SWAC are not listed, due to their schedule conflict with the Bayou Classic; Alabama State also has a Thanksgiving conflict.



Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State (5-1) must go 2-3
Southeast Missouri (4-2) must go 3-2
Eastern Kentucky (3-3) must go 4-1
Murray State (3-3) must go 4-1

Austin Peay (3-4) must go 4-0

Eastern Illinois (1-6) eliminated
Tennessee-Martin (1-5) eliminated
Tennessee State (2-3) eliminated
Tennessee Tech (0-5) eliminated




With the way the OVC is this year Murray could go 4-1 rest of the way. I don't think we would get in at 7-4 this year. The only way we get in is to go 5-0 with a HUGE upset of JSU and win the conference.

[Gangtackle11]

Nova with a healthy QB could make a case to end up 7-4 (4-4 in CAA) & a FBS win over a improving Temple team.

Losses to Maine, Towson, Stony Brook, & JMU probably have them on the outside looking in if all 4 are 7+ win teams. Also that would include a win vs. Delaware (our rented mule). Delaware would need another loss to be 7-4.

Looks bleak for Nova even if they run the table.

[katss07]

Nova with a healthy QB could make a case to end up 7-4 (4-4 in CAA) & a FBS win over a improving Temple team.

Losses to Maine, Towson, Stony Brook, & JMU probably have them on the outside looking in if all 4 are 7+ win teams. Also that would include a win vs. Delaware (our rented mule). Delaware would need another loss to be 7-4.

Looks bleak for Nova even if they run the table.
The issue for Nova is they have no tough teams left on their schedule. I mean UD is good, but going 1-4 against JMU, Towson, SB, Maine and UD doesn’t look real strong. The CAA is deep this year, but I can’t see more than 5 teams getting in, from any conference. That keeps a 7-4 Villanova team with no quality wins, unfortunately, out of the playoff picture.

IMO, the Wilcats are done.

[Gangtackle11]

The issue for Nova is they have no tough teams left on their schedule. I mean UD is good, but going 1-4 against JMU, Towson, SB, Maine and UD doesn’t look real strong. The CAA is deep this year, but I can’t see more than 5 teams getting in, from any conference. That keeps a 7-4 Villanova team with no quality wins, unfortunately, out of the playoff picture.

IMO, the Wilcats are done.

I don’t disagree. 1st thing is to run the table. 2nd is to hope a few CAA teams beat each other and fall to 6 wins. Nova has a puncher’s chance. Ironically, trading a FBS win for a conference win would more be beneficial than the FBS win. I guess we will just have to settle with beating our rented mule (Delaware) again in the season finale. xpeacex

[dgtw]

Once teams reach the seven win mark, could you keep a running total at the bottom of how many have reached that mark?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Professor Chaos]

The issue for Nova is they have no tough teams left on their schedule. I mean UD is good, but going 1-4 against JMU, Towson, SB, Maine and UD doesn’t look real strong. The CAA is deep this year, but I can’t see more than 5 teams getting in, from any conference. That keeps a 7-4 Villanova team with no quality wins, unfortunately, out of the playoff picture.

IMO, the Wilcats are done.
The CAA will be the first league ever to get 6 teams into the playoff field this year. You heard it here first! xthumbsupx

I think the MVFC and SOCON are going to be taking 2-4 less at-large bids this year than they have over the last couple years and the CAA and SLC (and maybe the Big Sky if they can get themselves sorted out) will be the beneficiaries.

[Redbird 4th & short]

We'll see. I get the feeling they'll be in comfortably in that scenario but a lot will happen between then and now if they can get to 7-4. The biggest thing is they need NAU and ISUr to not fall off the map.
we're going to try to help MoST's win over us look even better this weekend !!!

xdrunkyx

[gofurman]

Originally Posted by Catbooster http://www.anygivensaturday.com/images/SeamusLight/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?p=2692987#post2692987) It might be interesting in future weeks to note which teams had a game cancelled for the hurricane, since we don't know how the committee will handle that.



I considered that, and will add the cancellation information for next week. Thanks for the suggestion.

Yep - not saying my Furman guys have a great chance to win out or even belong in playoffs... but the cancellation of a game (by Colgate) due to the Hurricane leaves us with a 10 game schedule and we played CLEMSON meaning we have 9 FCS games. We don't schedule D2 teams. So do we have to go 7-2 in FCS to get a bid? That's pretty rough. Some say we could go 6-4 overall with good wins (like beating then #4 Wofford 34-14) and since that is 6-3 in FCS and the FBS loss is to number 2 FBS Clemson it at least merits thought. I don't know that I agree with that - I try to remain objective... but I do agree that 1) I hate anyone suffered with all these hurricanes ! and 2)it's a shame we will never know the outcome of the cancelled game

That hurricane cancellation (for not just my FUrman guys - any team that applies to... throws an asterisk on the whole thing for teams that are right on the edge...