2018 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (V 2.0)

[grizband]

2018 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (V 2.0)

Notes:
Every season I compile a list of FCS teams still capable of reaching 7 Division 1 wins. Although 7 wins is no longer the official plateau for at-large selection, it is highly unlikely a 6-5 team will be selected. The list is for reference only, and is not meant to predict the probability of the teams selected. It will be updated weekly, as teams are eliminated, or teams secure their conference auto-bid.

Teams are organized by conference, although Ivy League teams are not included since their conference does not participate in the FCS playoffs. MEAC and SWAC teams are listed since their second place teams are technically eligible to receive a playoff berth. However, Southern and Grambling from the SWAC are not listed, due to their schedule conflict with the Bayou Classic; Alabama State also has a Thanksgiving conflict.

Houston Baptist is on probation, and therefore ineligible for the postseason.

North Alabama is not eligible for the playoffs, during their FCS transition from Division II.

Key:
Teams preceded by an asterisk (*) have already reached 7 Division 1 wins.
Teams listed in bold need to win all remaining games to reach 7 Division I wins.
Teams followed by a hashtag (#) have played a lower division team
Teams followed by a plus sign (+) have an FBS team remaining on their schedule.

Big Sky
Eastern Washington (5-1)# must go 3-2
UC Davis (4-1) must go 3-3
Idaho State (4-1)#+ must go 4-2
Montana (4-2) must go 3-2
Weber State (3-2) must go 4-2
Montana State (3-2) must go 4-2
Northern Arizona (3-3) must go 4-1


Sacramento State (2-3)# must go 6-0
Idaho (2-3)#+ must go 6-0
Cal Poly (2-4) must go 5-0

Southern Utah (0-5) eliminated
Portland State (1-4)# eliminated
Northern Colorado (0-5) eliminated

Big South
Kennesaw State (5-1)# must go 3-2
Campbell (5-1)# must go 4-1
Monmouth (3-2) must go 4-2
Charleston Southern (1-2) must go 6-2

Presbyterian (2-2)# eliminated
Gardner-Webb (1-4)# eliminated

Colonial
Elon (4-1) must go 3-2
Rhode Island (4-1) must go 3-3
Towson (4-1) must go 3-3
James Madison (4-2) must go 3-2
Stony Brook (4-2) must go 3-2
Villanova (3-3) must go 4-1
Maine (3-2) must go 4-2
Delaware (3-2) must go 4-2
Albany (2-3) must go 5-1

Richmond (2-4) must go 5-0
William & Mary (1-3) must go 6-0
New Hampshire (1-4) must go 6-0

Independents
North Dakota (3-2) must go 4-2

Hampton (1-3) eliminated (only scheduled 6 Division 1 games)


MEAC
North Carolina A&T (5-1) must go 2-3
Florida A&M (4-2)# must go 4-1
Norfolk State (3-2)# must go 5-1
Bethune-Cookman (3-3)# must go 5-1

Howard (1-3) must go 6-0
Morgan State (1-4) must go 6-0
South Carolina State (1-4) must go 6-0

Savannah State (0-4) eliminated
Delaware State (0-4)# eliminated
North Carolina Central (1-3)# eliminated

Missouri Valley
North Dakota State (5-0) must go 2-4
Illinois State (4-1)# must go 4-2
South Dakota State (3-1) must go 4-2
Missouri State (3-2)# must go 5-1
South Dakota (3-2) must go 4-2
Northern Iowa (2-3) must go 5-1
Western Illinois (2-3) must go 5-1
Youngstown State (2-3) must go 5-1

Indiana State (2-3)# must go 6-0
Southern Illinois (1-4) must go 6-0


Northeast
Bryant (4-1)# must go 4-2
Sacred Heart (3-1) must go 4-3

Duquesne (3-2)# must go 5-1

Central Connecticut (3-3)# must go 5-0
Saint Francis (2-3)# must go 6-0


Robert Morris (1-3) eliminated (cannot reach 7 Division 1 wins)
Wagner (1-4) eliminated

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State (4-1) must go 3-3
Southeast Missouri (3-2) must go 4-2
Austin Peay (3-3) must go 4-1
Eastern Kentucky (2-3) must go 5-1
Murray State (2-3) must go 5-1

Tennessee State (2-2) must go 5-0
Tennessee-Martin (1-4) must go 6-0
Eastern Illinois (1-4) must go 6-0

Tennessee Tech (0-5) eliminated

Patriot
Colgate (5-0) must go 2-3

Georgetown (2-4) must go 5-0
Lehigh (1-4) must go 6-0
Lafayette (1-4) must go 6-0

Fordham (0-5) eliminated
Bucknell (1-5) eliminated
Holy Cross (1-5) eliminated

Pioneer
Drake (3-1)# must go 5-1
Butler (3-2)# must go 5-1
San Diego (3-2)# must go 5-1
Dayton (3-3) must go 4-1

Davidson (5-1)# must go 5-0
Stetson (3-1)# must go 6-0
Marist (1-4) must go 6-0

Morehead State (1-4) eliminated
Jacksonville (1-3) eliminated
Valpairaso (0-5) eliminated

Southern
ETSU (5-1)# must go 3-2
Wofford (4-1) must go 3-3
Chattanooga (4-2) must go 3-2
Western Carolina (3-2)#+ must go 4-2
Mercer (3-2) must go 4-2
Citadel (1-3)+ must go 6-1

Furman (1-3) must go 6-0

Samford (1-4)# eliminated
VMI (0-5)# eliminated

Southland
McNeese State (5-1) must go 2-3
Nicholls (4-2) must go 3-2
Sam Houston State (3-2) must go 4-2
Incarnate Word (3-2)+ must go 4-3
Central Arkansas (3-2) must go 4-2
Northwestern State (2-3) must go 5-1

Southeastern Louisiana (2-4) must go 5-0

Stephen F. Austin (1-4) eliminated
Abilene Christian (2-4) eliminated
Lamar (1-4)# eliminated

SWAC
Alcorn State (4-2)# must go 4-1
Prairie View A&M (3-3) must go 4-1
Jackson State (2-2) must go 5-1

Alabama A&M (3-3)# must go 5-0
MVSU (0-4) must go 7-0

Texas Southern (1-4) eliminated
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (1-4)# eliminated

[BisonTru]

I have the MVFC only getting three teams to 7 D1 wins and only 4 getting to 6 D1 wins. On the flip side it looks like 4 teams from the Southland could get to 8 wins. If the Southland got 4 teams in compared to the MVFC only getting in three, that would be quite the injustice, IM(possibly biased)O.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think the citadel/PC game is rescheduled for the first round of the playoffs so the citadel pretty much has to win out

[PaladinFan]

I have no idea the answer to this question.

If Furman finishes 6-2 in the SoCon (6-4 overall), I'm not sure the committee necessarily docks them because Colgate bowed out at the 11th hour.

[grizband]

I think the citadel/PC game is rescheduled for the first round of the playoffs so the citadel pretty much has to win out
You are correct; I should denote that scheduling issue in next week's version. However, I honestly envision the Citadel being eliminated prior to that game.

[Outsider1]

Man it pains me to see UIW even in the running right now.......

[grizband]

I have no idea the answer to this question.

If Furman finishes 6-2 in the SoCon (6-4 overall), I'm not sure the committee necessarily docks them because Colgate bowed out at the 11th hour.
The committee may not dock them for having a game cancelled. I do, however, believe there will be enough quality teams up for consideration, that Furman is unlikely to make the field.

[TheValleyRaider]

I have no idea the answer to this question.

If Furman finishes 6-2 in the SoCon (6-4 overall), I'm not sure the committee necessarily docks them because Colgate bowed out at the 11th hour.

That's a rather strange way of saying "Game was cancelled due to a hurricane"

[grizband]

I have no idea the answer to this question.

If Furman finishes 6-2 in the SoCon (6-4 overall), I'm not sure the committee necessarily docks them because Colgate bowed out at the 11th hour.


The committee may not dock them for having a game cancelled. I do, however, believe there will be enough quality teams up for consideration, that Furman is unlikely to make the field.


That's a rather strange way of saying "Game was cancelled due to a hurricane"
In all honestly, I'm not certain that Furman beats Colgate...which combined with their current record would have completely dropped them from at large playoff contention.

[Gangtackle11]

The positive for Nova is after JMU they play all 3 CAA teams that must go undefeated to remain in the race to 7.

That would make them 6-4 (assuming JMU loss) going into the Battle of the Blue. 7-4 if we continue the annual beat down of the Blue Chicks, but with losses to Towson & Stony Brook it may not be enough. xpeacex

[FUBeAR]

That's a rather strange way of saying "Game was cancelled due to a hurricane"
Was it though?

Was there a hurricane in Hamilton, NY?

Because the weather in Greenville on 9/15 was fine for Football - just a few drops of rain (0.11 inch) and a little breezy (15 mph avg windspeed).

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=gsp (link doesn’t work, but it’ll get you to the right place to look up & confirm...if you wanna)

[TheValleyRaider]

Was it though?

Was there a hurricane in Hamilton, NY?

Because the weather in Greenville on 9/15 was fine for Football - just a few drops of rain (0.11 inch) and a little breezy (15 mph avg windspeed).

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=gsp (link doesn’t work, but it’ll get you to the right place to look up & confirm...if you wanna)

You are joking, right?

There was a great deal of concern during the week that the storm would have passed through or near Greenville. It was one of many games cancelled in that part of the country that weekend.

The fact that it did not rain there is a good thing, but this seems like a strange way to characterize how that week played out.

[FUBeAR]

You are joking, right?

There was a great deal of concern during the week that the storm would have passed through or near Greenville. It was one of many games cancelled in that part of the country that weekend.

The fact that it did not rain there is a good thing, but this seems like a strange way to characterize how that week played out.I am joking.

Some Furman peeps are upset because they feel that Colgate didn’t want to play the game. I believe Furman was prepared to play, but as the Team that needed to make the decisions around putting a couple of hundred people in the air and/or on the road for 2 or 3 days, heading toward a potentially devastating weather event, it was a much more difficult decision for Colgate. The school, athletic dept., and Coaches needed to make the decision that was right for the people over which they had the responsibility to treat as they would their own family.

If canceling the game was the right decision for them, then that’s the right call and really should not be criticized, IMO, IRL.

Now, goofin’ around on a message board is another kettle of fish...or perhaps, pot of CHICKEN would be the more apt metaphor in this case. xthumbsupx

[TheValleyRaider]

I am joking.

Some Furman peeps are upset because they feel that Colgate didn’t want to play the game. I believe Furman was prepared to play, but as the Team that needed to make the decisions around putting a couple of hundred people in the air and/or on the road for 2 or 3 days, heading toward a potentially devastating weather event, it was a much more difficult decision for Colgate. The school, athletic dept., and Coaches needed to make the decision that was right for the people over which they had the responsibility to treat as they would their own family.

If canceling the game was the right decision for them, then that’s the right call and really should not be criticized, IMO, IRL.

Now, goofin’ around on a message board is another kettle of fish...or perhaps, pot of CHICKEN would be the more apt metaphor in this case. xthumbsupx

Of course. I objected to the original statement that characterized this game as Colgate "backing out"

I promise the Raiders wanted this game as well. Hopefully again in the future xthumbsupx

[grizband]

I am joking.

Some Furman peeps are upset because they feel that Colgate didn’t want to play the game. I believe Furman was prepared to play, but as the Team that needed to make the decisions around putting a couple of hundred people in the air and/or on the road for 2 or 3 days, heading toward a potentially devastating weather event, it was a much more difficult decision for Colgate. The school, athletic dept., and Coaches needed to make the decision that was right for the people over which they had the responsibility to treat as they would their own family.

If canceling the game was the right decision for them, then that’s the right call and really should not be criticized, IMO, IRL.

Now, goofin’ around on a message board is another kettle of fish...or perhaps, pot of CHICKEN would be the more apt metaphor in this case. xthumbsupx


Of course. I objected to the original statement that characterized this game as Colgate "backing out"

I promise the Raiders wanted this game as well. Hopefully again in the future xthumbsupx
As fan with no rooting interest in the game, I was very disappointed this game was cancelled.

[FUBeAR]

As fan with no rooting interest in the game, I was very disappointed this game was cancelled.
Me too. I have FU season tix...and what do I get as compensatory damages for the tickets I couldn’t use for Colgate? Extra Wofford tickets, which would be OK...but I already made plans to travel to New Haven for the Mercer @ Yale game. Thinking about suing Furman or Colgate or both to get 2 Yale tix instead. Do I have a case?

Just kidding - I was going to Mercer @ Samford anyway that Sat. I really didn’t have any interest in watching Furman curb stomp Colgate...again.