FCS Sagarin Ratings (thru results of Sept 22, 2018)

[World]

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

1. North Dakota State
2. South Dakota State
3. James Madison
4. Illinois State
5. Northern Iowa
6. Eastern Washington
7. Weber State
8. Princeton
9. Wofford
10. Kennesaw State
11. UC Davis
12. Villanova
13. South Dakota
14. Elon
15. Jacksonville State
16. Montana
17. Samford
18. Maine
19. Youngstown State
20. Missouri State
21. Stony Brook
22. Western Illinois
23. Nicholls State
24. Southern Illinois
25. Chattanooga

[ElCid]

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

1. North Dakota State
2. South Dakota State
3. James Madison
4. Illinois State
5. Northern Iowa
6. Eastern Washington
7. Weber State
8. Princeton
9. Wofford
10. Kennesaw State
11. UC Davis
12. Villanova
13. South Dakota
14. Elon
15. Jacksonville State
16. Montana
17. Samford
18. Maine
19. Youngstown State
20. Missouri State
21. Stony Brook
22. Western Illinois
23. Nicholls State
24. Southern Illinois
25. Chattanooga


And there are 6 teams listed above which are below .500 and have but one win each. And the 6 teams which these "6 one win" teams have beaten, have a combined record of 4-17 (FYI, WIU's lone win over Montana [3-1] accounts for 3 of those 4 wins). This early in the season most teams are still suffering from being skewed by the preseason bias. Most teams are not well connected. These biases will disappear in the next 2-3 weeks. Scheduling also insulates some teams/conferences. And of course, Sagarin does not compute lower Div games at all into the ratings.

[Professor Chaos]

If those slackers from Indiana St would pick it up the entire MVFC would be in Sagarin's FCS top 25. ;)

[dewey]

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

1. North Dakota State
2. South Dakota State
3. James Madison
4. Illinois State
5. Northern Iowa
6. Eastern Washington
7. Weber State
8. Princeton
9. Wofford
10. Kennesaw State
11. UC Davis
12. Villanova
13. South Dakota
14. Elon
15. Jacksonville State
16. Montana
17. Samford
18. Maine
19. Youngstown State
20. Missouri State
21. Stony Brook
22. Western Illinois
23. Nicholls State
24. Southern Illinois
25. Chattanooga

I do not understand the continual love for Northern Iowa. They lost at ~top 20 Montana, got whooped at Iowa and beat Hampton. I don't get it.

Plus Youngstown State? No way.

Dewey

[F'N Hawks]

I do not understand the continual love for Northern Iowa. They lost at ~top 20 Montana, got whooped at Iowa and beat Hampton. I don't get it.

Plus Youngstown State? No way.

Dewey

Preseason conference bias to the extreme.

South Dakota at 13?

[wapiti]

This is worse than the coaches poll

[Reign of Terrier]

All polls/rankings are subjective/imperfect and are ultimately hard to test for predictability, even in a playoff system.

However,

We all know Princeton is not top 10.

And that poisons this set.

But MVFC fans will still chest beat with it

(And before I get flamed for saying that, Indiana State and UNI were the only ones to noticeably jump in my poll this week)

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[World]

All polls/rankings are subjective/imperfect and are ultimately hard to test for predictability, even in a playoff system.

However,

We all know Princeton is not top 10.

And that poisons this set.

But MVFC fans will still chest beat with it

(And before I get flamed for saying that, Indiana State and UNI were the only ones to noticeably jump in my poll this week)

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk


curious, when you say Princeton is not top 10, tell us how Princeton did in its games so far this season?

and speaking of games, your team, #9 Wofford, barely squeezed by a very bad 1-2 The Citadel team that is not ranked in the top 40 in anyone"s poll And your other win was against 0-4 VMI, easily among the worse 10 teams in all of the FCS - looks like maybe you shouldn't be in the top 10 likewise

[Schism55]

If those slackers from Indiana St would pick it up the entire MVFC would be in Sagarin's FCS top 25. ;)
I think the Trees might be good this year...
/runs for cover

[ElCid]

curious, when you say Princeton is not top 10, tell us how Princeton did in its games so far this season?

and speaking of games, your team, #9 Wofford, barely squeezed by a very bad 1-2 The Citadel team that is not ranked in the top 40 in anyone"s poll And your other win was against 0-4 VMI, easily among the worse 10 teams in all of the FCS - looks like maybe you shouldn't be in the top 10 likewise

Really? See us play yesterday? We did pretty good. Very bad? Subjective much? We have not been great so far, but "very bad"? Two one score losses to presumptive top 25 teams? One in OT? VMI may be very bad (sorry Keydets), but it is a stretch to say we are "very bad." You need to get out more. xrotatehx LOL.

But let's see what Massey says.

Princeton SOS - 96/125
Wofford SOS - 50/125

and just for kicks The Citadel SOS - 31/125

Come back and talk when you start playing your insulated Ivy Schedule and your SOS improves from your delayed computer bias.

And if you think Sagarin is better (it isn't BTW, I tracked both Massey and Sagarin for three full years and Massey got them by a percent or two every time)

Princeton SOS - 238/255
Wofford SOS - 211/255

And again just for kicks The Citadel SOS - 165/255

Or lets look at the actual Sagarin rankings of opponents

Wofford
The Citadel - 169
VMI - 234
Wyoming - 91

Princeton
Butler - 227
Monmouth - 199

If we are "very bad" ranked at 169, what does that make Butler and Monmouth????? And Sagarin actually has 21 teams worse than VMI, so not quite bottom 10.

And if you think that computer ratings/rankings are not that accurate, then why did you bring them up to begin with by starting this thread? You made it too easy.

[World]

Really? See us play yesterday? We did pretty good. Very bad? Subjective much? We have not been great so far, but "very bad"? Two one score losses to presumptive top 25 teams? One in OT? VMI may be very bad (sorry Keydets), but it is a stretch to say we are "very bad." You need to get out more. xrotatehx LOL.

But let's see what Massey says.

Princeton SOS - 96/125
Wofford SOS - 50/125

and just for kicks The Citadel SOS - 31/125

Come back and talk when you start playing your insulated Ivy Schedule and your SOS improves from your delayed computer bias.

And if you think Sagarin is better (it isn't BTW, I tracked both Massey and Sagarin for three full years and Massey got them by a percent or two every time)

Princeton SOS - 238/255
Wofford SOS - 211/255

And again just for kicks The Citadel SOS - 165/255

Or lets look at the actual Sagarin rankings of opponents

Wofford
The Citadel - 169
VMI - 234
Wyoming - 91

Princeton
Butler - 227
Monmouth - 199

If we are "very bad" ranked at 169, what does that make Butler and Monmouth????? And Sagarin actually has 21 teams worse than VMI, so not quite bottom 10.

And if you think that computer ratings/rankings are not that accurate, then why did you bring them up to begin with by starting this thread? You made it too easy.



Well, thanks for bringing up the Massey Ratings

Funny you would discuss the Massey Strength of Schedule but NOT THE ACTUAL RATINGS themselves for the 3 teams

So here are the Massey FCS football Ratings, NOTHING ELSE NEEDS TO BE SAID:

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings


17. Princeton
21. Wofford
45. Citadel

[uni88]

All polls/rankings are subjective/imperfect and are ultimately hard to test for predictability, even in a playoff system.

However,

We all know Princeton is not top 10.

And that poisons this set.

But MVFC fans will still chest beat with it

(And before I get flamed for saying that, Indiana State and UNI were the only ones to noticeably jump in my poll this week)

Sent from my Pixel 2 using TapatalkI'm not going to flame you and I'm definitely not beating my chest. UNI has been way over-ranked.

[Professor Chaos]

I think the Trees might be good this year...
/runs for cover
Well they miss NDSU this year (and next year). So they got that going for them....

[Cocky]

Computer polls are personal opinions hiding behind a computer. When you have a ranking before the season the outcome is skewed.
But I do agree my team is about where I would have them in the 15 range.

[MR. CHICKEN]

All polls/rankings are subjective/imperfect and are ultimately hard to test for predictability, even in a playoff system.

However,

We all know Princeton is not top 10.

And that poisons this set.

But MVFC fans will still chest beat with it

(And before I get flamed for saying that, Indiana State and UNI were the only ones to noticeably jump in my poll this week)

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

.....DUH SAME INDIANA STATE.....WHOM IS 2-1.....WHIFF QUINCY & 0-4 EASTERN ILLINOIS AS YER DUBBYA'S.....JUMPED IN YER POLL/IS EVEN IN YOUSE POLL....xconfusedx....C'MON MAN....YER HUGGIN' DUH TREES.........................xhugx............AWK !

[Reign of Terrier]

curious, when you say Princeton is not top 10, tell us how Princeton did in its games so far this season?

and speaking of games, your team, #9 Wofford, barely squeezed by a very bad 1-2 The Citadel team that is not ranked in the top 40 in anyone"s poll And your other win was against 0-4 VMI, easily among the worse 10 teams in all of the FCS - looks like maybe you shouldn't be in the top 10 likewiseThey aren't top 10 because an Ivy is never top 10 and ranking them that high is the pinnacle of unfalsifiable conjecture.

Meanwhile, Princeton beating two non-scholarship or close to non-scholarship teams like a drum says very little about how good they are.

Meanwhile, if you think the Citadel is "very bad" you're just being lazy. Citadel won the socon without a blemish two seasons ago. They went 5-6 last year and were a couple plays away from being above .500 in a very tough socon.

I don't have to defend Wofford's record. We may not be NDSU, but we have more playoff wins in the last 2 years than most team in the subdivision. So far, every indication is that we are better or at least on par with last year, which translates (if anything by default) into a top 10 ranking.

I guarantee you Dartmouth is systemically favored in this poll because they beat Butler which beat a bad Youngstown team, which it already drastically overrates

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Reign of Terrier]

Good catch, I thought Illinois State and typed Indiana State.
.....DUH SAME INDIANA STATE.....WHOM IS 2-1.....WHIFF QUINCY & 0-4 EASTERN ILLINOIS AS YER DUBBYA'S.....JUMPED IN YER POLL/IS EVEN IN YOUSE POLL....xconfusedx....C'MON MAN....YER HUGGIN' DUH TREES.........................xhugx............AWK !

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[MR. CHICKEN]

.....WHEW!.......OWN-LAH UH TYPO.....;).....BRAWK!

[Reign of Terrier]

Thankfully I voted Illinois State...
.....WHEW!.......OWN-LAH UH TYPO.....;).....BRAWK!

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[ysubigred]

I do not understand the continual love for Northern Iowa. They lost at ~top 20 Montana, got whooped at Iowa and beat Hampton. I don't get it.

Plus Youngstown State? No way.

Dewey

Hey what's wrong with Y-Town? This poll is predicting the future xbawlingx

[clenz]

I do not understand the continual love for Northern Iowa. They lost at ~top 20 Montana, got whooped at Iowa and beat Hampton. I don't get it.

Plus Youngstown State? No way.

Dewey
Road loss by 3
Loss at FBS
Doing to a bad FCS team what should be done to a bad FCS

I'm not about to call UNI a good team by any means...but....if losing by 3 on the road to a top 15-20 team, losing to an FBS and beating an FCS is grounds for calling someone overrated then half of the FCS is overrated through the first 5 weeks every year

[ysubigred]

Road loss by 3
Loss at FBS
Doing to a bad FCS team what should be done to a bad FCS

I'm not about to call UNI a good team by any means...but....if losing by 3 on the road to a top 15-20 team, losing to an FBS and beating an FCS is grounds for calling someone overrated then half of the FCS is overrated through the first 5 weeks every year

+ 1 ^ The only two teams I have penciled in right now is NDSU and JMU.

[kalm]

Well, thanks for bringing up the Massey Ratings

Funny you would discuss the Massey Strength of Schedule but NOT THE ACTUAL RATINGS themselves for the 3 teams

So here are the Massey FCS football Ratings, NOTHING ELSE NEEDS TO BE SAID:

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings


17. Princeton
21. Wofford
45. Citadel

Except anyone who follows these things knows the computers are far better late in the season and can be goofy in September.

[grizband]

Road loss by 3
Loss at FBS
Doing to a bad FCS team what should be done to a bad FCS

I'm not about to call UNI a good team by any means...but....if losing by 3 on the road to a top 15-20 team, losing to an FBS and beating an FCS is grounds for calling someone overrated then half of the FCS is overrated through the first 5 weeks every year


+ 1 ^ The only two teams I have penciled in right now is NDSU and JMU.
Agree with both of these comments! NDSU and JMU are the only 2 teams I've been consistently confident in all season. It's difficult to truly evaluate most other teams through one month, and settles out more each continuing week.

[ElCid]

Well, thanks for bringing up the Massey Ratings

Funny you would discuss the Massey Strength of Schedule but NOT THE ACTUAL RATINGS themselves for the 3 teams

So here are the Massey FCS football Ratings, NOTHING ELSE NEEDS TO BE SAID:

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings


17. Princeton
21. Wofford
45. Citadel

Actually you brought up SOS so I went with it. Massey is there for everyone to see. And the issue I had was to refute that we are "very bad" ergo Wofford doesn't deserve its ranking when they have clearly had a more difficult schedule, albeit not hugely tougher. Stick with the program.

[ElCid]

Computer polls are personal opinions hiding behind a computer. When you have a ranking before the season the outcome is skewed.
But I do agree my team is about where I would have them in the 15 range.

Shack. It's garbage in and garbage out. That's not to say the results are actual garbage. They are pretty good usually, but they are absolutely the result of a human written algorithm and therefore bias. There should be used as nothing more than a sanity check data point.

[ElCid]

Road loss by 3
Loss at FBS
Doing to a bad FCS team what should be done to a bad FCS

I'm not about to call UNI a good team by any means...but....if losing by 3 on the road to a top 15-20 team, losing to an FBS and beating an FCS is grounds for calling someone overrated then half of the FCS is overrated through the first 5 weeks every year

UNI always seems to struggle early on. But I am giving them kudos for usually having a tough OOC schedule. It is hard to vote for them when they start 0-2 or 1-3, etc. but I know they are good.

[kalm]

Road loss by 3
Loss at FBS
Doing to a bad FCS team what should be done to a bad FCS

I'm not about to call UNI a good team by any means...but....if losing by 3 on the road to a top 15-20 team, losing to an FBS and beating an FCS is grounds for calling someone overrated then half of the FCS is overrated through the first 5 weeks every year

Yep. And that Montana loss ain't looking half bad after the Griz get a solid win against an upper half BSC team in Sac State. The two toughest remaining games for the Griz (Davis and MSU) are in Missoula so I can see Montana rather easily finishing 8-3. UNI has the talent to go at least 6-2 in the conference and they get NDSU, SDSU, and ISU all at home.

[World]

Actually you brought up SOS so I went with it. Massey is there for everyone to see. And the issue I had was to refute that we are "very bad" ergo Wofford doesn't deserve its ranking when they have clearly had a more difficult schedule, albeit not hugely tougher. Stick with the program.

actually, not only did you bring up the SOS but THAT IS ALL YOU DISCUSSED IN YOUR LONG POST. Never mentioned the actual ranking of the three teams, which is the most important part since it includes the performance of the team against the level of SOS, and here it is again:

So here are the Massey FCS football Ratings

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings


17. Princeton
21. Wofford
45. Citadel

I would consider The Citadel's greater than 40 ranking on ALL POLLS at this time in the season to be worthy of calling them "very bad"

[Reign of Terrier]

Road loss by 3
Loss at FBS
Doing to a bad FCS team what should be done to a bad FCS

I'm not about to call UNI a good team by any means...but....if losing by 3 on the road to a top 15-20 team, losing to an FBS and beating an FCS is grounds for calling someone overrated then half of the FCS is overrated through the first 5 weeks every year

Yep, there's not enough information either way. Historically, in competitive and playoff-contending conferences (defined here as regularly sending multiple teams to the playoffs, but never the same exact combination) such as the MVFC, CAA, Southern, and Big Sky, one could argue it's more reasonable to go off year-long trends than individual W-L's this early in the season. Because these conferences are wide open and the teams are good, it's not unreasonable to bias the ones that traditionally make the playoffs.


Except anyone who follows these things knows the computers are far better late in the season and can be goofy in September.

Yep, but I would follow up with the fact that, whatever formula they have right now, it clearly biases MVFC teams for whatever reasons. I don't know if it's because it puts high value on previous years, but I think it makes the whole thing a little bit suspect. It's hard to falsify these rankings because the playoffs are so regionalized.


Actually you brought up SOS so I went with it. Massey is there for everyone to see. And the issue I had was to refute that we are "very bad" ergo Wofford doesn't deserve its ranking when they have clearly had a more difficult schedule, albeit not hugely tougher. Stick with the program.

Hot take: Wofford's resume 3 weeks in is better than like 95% of the FCS.


Shack. It's garbage in and garbage out. That's not to say the results are actual garbage. They are pretty good usually, but they are absolutely the result of a human written algorithm and therefore bias. There should be used as nothing more than a sanity check data point.

I'm a fan of computers, but there's no such thing as an unbiased information processing system, because such systems have to be programmed to value (which is just a synonym for bias) some outcomes and inputs over others.

In the case of Sagarin, etc, they design these things to predict game outcomes (and to their credit, they are pretty accurate). The problem is that with teams that these algorithms can't be made better unless your team regularly plays tough FCS OOC or makes the playoffs. Because the MVFC teams (by merit or by bias) make the playoffs more than others, they will naturally be favored more in these computers. And that's on the good non-MVFC teams for scheduling poorly and or not making the playoffs:(

[Reign of Terrier]

actually, not only did you bring up the SOS but THAT IS ALL YOU DISCUSSED IN YOUR LONG POST. Never mentioned the actual ranking of the three teams, which is the most important part since it includes the performance of the team against the level of SOS, and here it is again:

So here are the Massey FCS football Ratings

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings


17. Princeton
21. Wofford
45. Citadel

I would consider The Citadel's greater than 40 ranking on ALL POLLS at this time in the season to be worthy of calling them "very bad"


You're an idiot. There are over 120 teams in FCS. Being ranked in the top 50 makes you at least average, if not good.

[World]

They aren't top 10 because an Ivy is never top 10 and ranking them that high is the pinnacle of unfalsifiable conjecture.

Meanwhile, Princeton beating two non-scholarship or close to non-scholarship teams like a drum says very little about how good they are.

Meanwhile, if you think the Citadel is "very bad" you're just being lazy. Citadel won the socon without a blemish two seasons ago. They went 5-6 last year and were a couple plays away from being above .500 in a very tough socon.

I don't have to defend Wofford's record. We may not be NDSU, but we have more playoff wins in the last 2 years than most team in the subdivision. So far, every indication is that we are better or at least on par with last year, which translates (if anything by default) into a top 10 ranking.

I guarantee you Dartmouth is systemically favored in this poll because they beat Butler which beat a bad Youngstown team, which it already drastically overrates

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk


Oh wait, Wofford barely beat a team with similar sagarin ranking (169 to 199) to a team that Princeton beat by 51-9 and your other win which was by a significant margin was over a team with similar rating (234 to 227) as the team that Princeton also beat by a significant margin...then you lost a game...

yep, keep on telling us how much better your Wofford is than any of the Ivy League teams, particularly Princeton. which this year had the highest ranked recruited class in all of the FCS.

[ElCid]

actually, I would consider The Citadel's greater than 40 ranking on ALL POLLS at this time in the season to be worthy of calling them "very bad"


Just shows you are not a very discerning observer. And I guess you confuse polls with computer ratings. They are not the same. If you are talking about actual human polls, there are really only three of note. The rest are computer rankings based on ratings. The human polls only include 40 for AGS, 41 for the Coaches, and Stats actually had 54 last week. So I guess any team not receiving any votes is "very bad." Got it. That is 80+ BTW. The computers rank everyone 1-125. And if you are actually talking about one of 22 computer rankings, that the Massey composite lists, you still got it wrong, we are 40 or better in 9 of them this week. I would stop while you are behind, and falling further every post.

[World]

You're an idiot. There are over 120 teams in FCS. Being ranked in the top 50 makes you at least average, if not good.


Well there you go, the insults from alumnus of the lowly school from the South begin

[Professor Chaos]

This thread is starting to remind me of TheFan. :D

[Reign of Terrier]

Well there you go, the insults from alumnus of the lowly school from the South begin

I realize now you're a troll, so I won't pay much more attention to you.

Having said that, you can tell that Massey is kind of bull**** when it comes to the Ivys because it only ranks 3 of Yale's remaining games as above a coin flip (~45-55%): Columbia, Mercer, and Brown, giving them a 66% chance of beating Mercer.

Sorry, if your algorithm projects a mid-to-top tier socon team as a more likely win than the entire Ivy league, it's either systemically flawed or operating under incomplete information. I'm not inclined to throw Sagarin under the bus completely, but the Ivy bias is obviously bonkers.

[Bison56]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=28973&stc=1

[World]

I realize now you're a troll, so I won't pay much more attention to you.

Having said that, you can tell that Massey is kind of bull**** when it comes to the Ivys because it only ranks 3 of Yale's remaining games as above a coin flip (~45-55%): Columbia, Mercer, and Brown, giving them a 66% chance of beating Mercer.

Sorry, if your algorithm projects a mid-to-top tier socon team as a more likely win than the entire Ivy league, it's either systemically flawed or operating under incomplete information. I'm not inclined to throw Sagarin under the bus completely, but the Ivy bias is obviously bonkers.


and the insults from the guy from the lowly Southern school continue

[Derby City Duke]

xslapfightx xpopcornx

[ElCid]

Well there you go, the insults from alumnus of the lowly school from the South begin


I realize now you're a troll, so I won't pay much more attention to you.



Dude, I didn't know you were lowly. Who knew?

[Houndawg]

curious, when you say Princeton is not top 10, tell us how Princeton did in its games so far this season?

and speaking of games, your team, #9 Wofford, barely squeezed by a very bad 1-2 The Citadel team that is not ranked in the top 40 in anyone"s poll And your other win was against 0-4 VMI, easily among the worse 10 teams in all of the FCS - looks like maybe you shouldn't be in the top 10 likewise

Ivy League teams don't count. They play each other in the Small But Slow Conference for participation trophies.xcoffeex

[Houndawg]

Well, thanks for bringing up the Massey Ratings

Funny you would discuss the Massey Strength of Schedule but NOT THE ACTUAL RATINGS themselves for the 3 teams

So here are the Massey FCS football Ratings, NOTHING ELSE NEEDS TO BE SAID:

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings


17. Princeton
21. Wofford
45. Citadel

Either would beat Princeton by three scores on the road.

[Milktruck74]

When people start talking about margin of victory as a way of ranking teams, I shut down....especially if they are talking about margin of victory with a Wofford team. Just because they can beat you by 60, doesn't mean they will.... Hell, has Woffy EVER beat anybody by more than 21? They will totally dominate all aspects of the game, it will never be a question...and the final will be 21-10.

[Reign of Terrier]

When people start talking about margin of victory as a way of ranking teams, I shut down....especially if they are talking about margin of victory with a Wofford team. Just because they can beat you by 60, doesn't mean they will.... Hell, has Woffy EVER beat anybody by more than 21? They will totally dominate all aspects of the game, it will never be a question...and the final will be 21-10.Hey now, this is not accurate...we usually pulverize bad teams by 30, last year was an anomaly.

But option teams rarely score more than 28 FWIW

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