JMU 2018 Schedule and Analysis

[KPSUL]

Athlon Sports has moved on to consensus FCS preseason #2. https://athlonsports.com/college-football/james-madison-dukes-2018-football-schedule-and-analysis

Thoughts on the Duke's chances for an undefeated FCS regular season and a 3rd consecutive appearance in Frisco?

[WestCoastAggie]

If they beat N.C. State, JMU will go 12-0.

[andthehomeofthe-BIZON-]

Going undefeated in the CAA is reeeeeaaaaly tough. Might take them a little time to gel as a team with replacing some big pieces or they just don't bring it one week. They lose at least 1 if not 2 games IMO.

[WestCoastAggie]

Going undefeated in the CAA is reeeeeaaaaly tough. Might take them a little time to gel as a team with replacing some big pieces or they just don't bring it one week. They lose at least 1 if not 2 games IMO.

While true, they should be favored in all CAA matchups. Their toughest games will be at Richmond and at UNH. Stony Brook is a trap game, but they should handle them easily.

[Professor Chaos]

Going undefeated in the CAA is reeeeeaaaaly tough. Might take them a little time to gel as a team with replacing some big pieces or they just don't bring it one week. They lose at least 1 if not 2 games IMO.


While true, they should be favored in all CAA matchups. Their toughest games will be at Richmond and at UNH. Stony Brook is a trap game, but they should handle them easily.
Yep, and they've went undefeated in the CAA the last two years so their players know what it's like to have the target on their backs since they obviously did in every CAA game last year.

I'd agree that if they beat NC State they go undefeated in the regular season but that's mainly because NC State is going to be pretty good if the pundits are right so that would mean that JMU will have just picked up where they left off the last couple years with little to no drop off.

@UNH will be their toughest FCS test I think.

[RootinFerDukes]

One thing I can predict with certainty is that the likely loss to NC State will be over analyzed to death on AGS and JMU will drop off the radar completely.
We will have to spend the rest of the season going undefeated to crack the rankings again.

[RootinFerDukes]

It’ll mainly hinge on the new QB, WR and O-Line play. I think that’s called the majority of the offense.
I anticipate our defense will reload and be just as nasty as last year. Our D line depth is a concern though. Way too much turnover there mainly thanks to Everett Withers.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

If they beat N.C. State, JMU will go 12-0.


NC State is going to be good. JMU loses this one.

[Bison56]

One thing I can predict with certainty is that the likely loss to NC State will be over analyzed to death on AGS and JMU will drop off the radar completely.
We will have to spend the rest of the season going undefeated to crack the rankings again.

I agree it will be over analyzed, but they won't drop off the radar.

[dewey]

I agree it will be over analyzed, but they won't drop off the radar.

Agreed. Anyone that drops JMU more than a handful of spots regardless of how they do against NC State should have to answer some tough questions from other voters.

Dewey

[Lorne_Malvo]

JMWHO?

[cx500d]

Agreed. Anyone that drops JMU more than a handful of spots regardless of how they do against NC State should have to answer some tough questions from other voters.

Dewey

Especially for the first game of the year....it pretty much means nothing if they lose. If they win, then we shall see how the head to head against Delaware goes.


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[RootinFerDukes]

I guess my tongue wasn’t placed firmly enough in my cheek. NC State will be ranked in the preseason and we have a new QB starting. It’s a tall task.

[WeAreThePride]

One thing I can predict with certainty is that the likely loss to NC State will be over analyzed to death on AGS and JMU will drop off the radar completely.
We will have to spend the rest of the season going undefeated to crack the rankings again.
You want to be elite? You gotta do elite stuff. That means beating 20-30 ranked teams like NCSt.

[Professor Chaos]

You want to be elite? You gotta do elite stuff. That means beating 20-30 ranked teams like NCSt.
Depends on how you term "elite". IMO JMU is definitely an FCS elite right now and unless they lay an absolute egg and get obliterated by NC State I don't see that changing after that game.

[ST_Lawson]

Sorry JMU....even if you lose to Bama in OT, I'm dropping you out of my rankings. I don't vote in the poll though, so it doesn't really matter.

[TheKingpin28]

Sorry JMU....even if you lose to Bama in OT, I'm dropping you out of my rankings. I don't vote in the poll though, so it doesn't really matter.

Some kind of "MVP". xlolx


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[IBleedYellow]

JMU takes a step back this year and the CAA is coming up. Combine that with the fact that they have a target on their back from the past two years. I don't think that they go undefeated in the CAA. It's too damn hard to go undefeated in the top conferences even when you're head and shoulders above the other teams.

Week in and week out they will get everyone's best shot, and if they aren't at the top of their game they will slip, even if it's by 3 points.

That's not a knock against JMU, either.

[katss07]

Richmond is a trap game.

[RootinFerDukes]

You want to be elite? You gotta do elite stuff. That means beating 20-30 ranked teams like NCSt.

We did it before you did so... we’re good.

[RootinFerDukes]

Depends on how you term "elite". IMO JMU is definitely an FCS elite right now and unless they lay an absolute egg and get obliterated by NC State I don't see that changing after that game.

By his likely metric, 6 titles in 7 years, not a single MVFC team qualifies as elite. I better not see anything claiming as much on AGS all season then by him.

[RootinFerDukes]

Richmond is a trap game.

Richmond also has a new QB coming in who hasn’t seen meaningful time in over a season. Huesman’s first year was mediocre and lauletta handed them as many wins as they got.
There’s just as many, if not more questions marks for the spatters.

[KPSUL]

Richmond also has a new QB coming in who hasn’t seen meaningful time in over a season. Huesman’s first year was mediocre and lauletta handed them as many wins as they got.
There’s just as many, if not more questions marks for the spatters.

Richmond has more questions to answer than JMU, and they are coming off a lackluster 2017 season. Richmond does seem to play some of their best football vs JMU and they are at home, but strangely, in recent years both teams have play better in each other's stadium. I wouldn't call it a trap game. JMU is a clear favorite and I don't see them being trapped by in-state rival Richmond.

[WeAreThePride]

We did it before you did so... we’re good.
I'm not the one making preemptive excuses for losing an upcoming game.

[WeAreThePride]

By his likely metric, 6 titles in 7 years, not a single MVFC team qualifies as elite. I better not see anything claiming as much on AGS all season then by him.
By my metric, there are about 3 or 4 elite programs in the history of FCS. Yours is a very good program. Montana was a very good team. Not elite.

[caribbeanhen]

While true, they should be favored in all CAA matchups. Their toughest games will be at Richmond and at UNH. Stony Brook is a trap game, but they should handle them easily.


they will pummel UNH and Richmond, Stony will hang around

[RootinFerDukes]

I'm not the one making preemptive excuses for losing an upcoming game.

Saying posters on AGS will over-analyze a loss to death is making excuses? No, it’s just being honest. If only we could play Cal Poly instead. Now that’s a challenge.

[katss07]

Richmond also has a new QB coming in who hasn’t seen meaningful time in over a season. Huesman’s first year was mediocre and lauletta handed them as many wins as they got.
There’s just as many, if not more questions marks for the spatters.
Yeah, but remember the comeback that evening in North Dakota. He stepped into a big spot (2nd round of playoffs) a preformed well. The dude can play. Its just yet to be seen how he is over a full season. Richmond was definitely an average team last year. I watched them play in person. But rivalry game/history plus the fact that JMU is in the middle of CAA domination, I think this will be a serious challenge. Stony Brook will also be a fun one.

[RootinFerDukes]

Yes but JMU/UR is always a close one no matter how bad each team is, well except the 2014 game haha.

Kevin Johnson played against a cupcake in A&T that any playoff worthy caa team would’ve handled with ease. That was a team with no business being in the playoffs.
He then beat UND by coming from behind and that was impressive but I think that year’s seed that didn’t deserve a seed was definitely UND. There was also only one game of film on this new QB. Advantage to UR there.
Finally, they were taken to the woodshed against eventual semifinalist EWU.
He looked good in two of three games. Hasn’t started a whole season and has sat back on the bench for all of 2017.

[Terry2889]

While true, they should be favored in all CAA matchups. Their toughest games will be at Richmond and at UNH. Stony Brook is a trap game, but they should handle them easily.

I see potential losses to 'Nova and UNH. If either can produce some offense against the Dukes (Easier said than done mind you) they have the defenses to limit JMU. Being on the road for both these games will make them very tough to win both, but if anyone has the talent to do it it's JMU.

[Seawolf97]

they will pummel UNH and Richmond, Stony will hang around

I think we beat them . We beat when w e first entered the CAA we cab do it again. Never said it would be easy but it is possible even at home.

[RootinFerDukes]

I think we beat them . We beat when w e first entered the CAA we cab do it again. Never said it would be easy but it is possible even at home.

That 2013 loss was among some of the worst I’ve ever seen as a fan. I’d say it was the loss that sealed mickey’s fate.

That team is nothing like what you’ll see mike Houston put out on the field though. That team went 6-6 and had birdsong as the QB. He was quickly replaced by vad Lee and transferred out because his pride was hurt I suppose. He’s now in the nfl ironically. I don’t think his college career was particularly noteworthy, so that is a bit of a head scratcher.

Anyways, that 2013 team clearly quit on Mickey and it was like they weren’t trying for most of the second half. The offense and defense were equally atrocious. This 2018 team will at bare minimum have a defense far superior to anything that was fielded in 2013.

Houston will have them ready to play. Mickey didn’t have them ready.

[Gangtackle11]

Nova may give them a tussle on the Mainline. 2 years ago, Nova knocked Schnor out & gave JMU a scare until 2 late Nova turnovers gave JMU a hard fought win 20-10. Last season, Nova had no offense (starting a true frosh QB) and were down 16-8 (with the ball with 10 minutes to go) at Bridgeforth before JMU scored the last 2 TDS including a last minute 5 yd. Pick 6 on an errant screen pass.

Nova at full strength will have 5th year Sr. Qb, All-CAA TE, top WR, & a key RS Sr. back from season ending injuries & the defense should be near the top of the CAA. The defense will welcome back pre-season CAA DPOY & 1st team AA S Rob Rolle.

I think JMU may find the Wildcats with sharp teeth that October Saturday. Still JMU is a tough out anywhere in the FCS. xpeacex

[frozennorth]

One thing I can predict with certainty is that the likely loss to NC State will be over analyzed to death on AGS and JMU will drop off the radar completely.
We will have to spend the rest of the season going undefeated to crack the rankings again.
as long as you don't get blown out you might still be #2 afterwords.

[jmufan999]

Nova may give them a tussle on the Mainline. 2 years ago, Nova knocked Schnor out & gave JMU a scare until 2 late Nova turnovers gave JMU a hard fought win 20-10. Last season, Nova had no offense (starting a true frosh QB) and were down 16-8 (with the ball with 10 minutes to go) at Brodgeforth before JMU scored the last 2 TDS including a last minute 5 yd. Pick 6 on an errant screen pass.

Nova at full strength will have 5th year Sr. Qb, All-CAA TE, top WR, & a key RS Sr. back from season ending injuries & the defense should be near the top of the CAA. The defense will welcome back pre-season CAA DPOY & 1st team AA S Rob Rolle.

I think JMU may find the Wildcats with sharp teeth that October Saturday. Still JMU is a tough out anywhere in the FCS. xpeacex

Nova is clearly the most difficult test of the season, in my opinion. that's not a knock on UNH or UR, both tough tests, but Nova will be the most difficult.

[KPSUL]

That 2013 loss was among some of the worst I’ve ever seen as a fan. I’d say it was the loss that sealed mickey’s fate.

That team is nothing like what you’ll see mike Houston put out on the field though. That team went 6-6 and had birdsong as the QB. He was quickly replaced by vad Lee and transferred out because his pride was hurt I suppose. He’s now in the nfl ironically. I don’t think his college career was particularly noteworthy, so that is a bit of a head scratcher.

Anyways, that 2013 team clearly quit on Mickey and it was like they weren’t trying for most of the second half. The offense and defense were equally atrocious. This 2018 team will at bare minimum have a defense far superior to anything that was fielded in 2013.

Houston will have them ready to play. Mickey didn’t have them ready.

In other words, congratulations Seawolf, that was a notable accomplishment in Stony Brook's first CAA season.

[caribbeanhen]

Nova may give them a tussle on the Mainline. 2 years ago, Nova knocked Schnor out & gave JMU a scare until 2 late Nova turnovers gave JMU a hard fought win 20-10. Last season, Nova had no offense (starting a true frosh QB) and were down 16-8 (with the ball with 10 minutes to go) at Bridgeforth before JMU scored the last 2 TDS including a last minute 5 yd. Pick 6 on an errant screen pass.

Nova at full strength will have 5th year Sr. Qb, All-CAA TE, top WR, & a key RS Sr. back from season ending injuries & the defense should be near the top of the CAA. The defense will welcome back pre-season CAA DPOY & 1st team AA S Rob Rolle.

I think JMU may find the Wildcats with sharp teeth that October Saturday. Still JMU is a tough out anywhere in the FCS. xpeacex

Hen fans still not able to talk about it after the no show last November GT.... hopefully the Hens already have a playoff spot locked up when they welcome urban Nova into rural Newark come this November..... but as long as Marty is around Delaware having a playoff spot locked up is all hopes and dreams...

[WestCoastAggie]

Nova may give them a tussle on the Mainline. 2 years ago, Nova knocked Schnor out & gave JMU a scare until 2 late Nova turnovers gave JMU a hard fought win 20-10. Last season, Nova had no offense (starting a true frosh QB) and were down 16-8 (with the ball with 10 minutes to go) at Bridgeforth before JMU scored the last 2 TDS including a last minute 5 yd. Pick 6 on an errant screen pass.

Nova at full strength will have 5th year Sr. Qb, All-CAA TE, top WR, & a key RS Sr. back from season ending injuries & the defense should be near the top of the CAA. The defense will welcome back pre-season CAA DPOY & 1st team AA S Rob Rolle.

I think JMU may find the Wildcats with sharp teeth that October Saturday. Still JMU is a tough out anywhere in the FCS. xpeacex

Nova is definitely a game JMU should expect a fight.

[grayghost06]

That 2013 loss was among some of the worst I’ve ever seen as a fan. I’d say it was the loss that sealed mickey’s fate.

That team is nothing like what you’ll see mike Houston put out on the field though. That team went 6-6 and had birdsong as the QB. He was quickly replaced by vad Lee and transferred out because his pride was hurt I suppose. He’s now in the nfl ironically. I don’t think his college career was particularly noteworthy, so that is a bit of a head scratcher.

Anyways, that 2013 team clearly quit on Mickey and it was like they weren’t trying for most of the second half. The offense and defense were equally atrocious. This 2018 team will at bare minimum have a defense far superior to anything that was fielded in 2013.

Houston will have them ready to play. Mickey didn’t have them ready.


NFL GMs and scouts never fail to amaze me. I believe JMU was Birdsong's only D-I offer. He couldn't keep the starters job at FCS JMU. He couldn't keep the starters job at G5 Marshall. He finished up his career as a starter playing Ohio Valley level ball. And yet he got two opportunities in NFL camps because he fit the ideal QB template for size. I call it the Jeff George syndrome. Million dollar arm, two cent head.

[RootinFerDukes]

Yeah Birdsong spent 4 years of eligibility at 3 different schools, transferring twice because he wasn’t named the starter.
He ended his playing time at Tennessee Tech, a OVC school that has been completely off the radar, even by FCS standards. They were never ranked or even in the playoff discussion during his playing time.

[Gangtackle11]

Hen fans still not able to talk about it after the no show last November GT.... hopefully the Hens already have a playoff spot locked up when they welcome urban Nova into rural Newark come this November..... but as long as Marty is around Delaware having a playoff spot locked up is all hopes and dreams...

Even with all my good natured heckling of the Hens here it is my suspicion that game at Delaware may decide who goes & who stays home in the FCS playoffs. Long way off, but it would be great if that game was a playoff elimination one. xpeacex

[BDKJMU]

It’ll mainly hinge on the new QB, WR and O-Line play. I think that’s called the majority of the offense.
I anticipate our defense will reload and be just as nasty as last year. Our D line depth is a concern though. Way too much turnover there mainly thanks to Everett Withers.
Agree on the offense, but the potential is certainly there to be better (probably not initially).
Defense won't likely be as dominant as last year. Only 4 starters back, (5 of 12 if you count the nickel corner as a starter). Do have a 2016 starter returning (Holloway at LB), and all 3 P5 transfers might be starting 2 DL and a safety).

[BDKJMU]

I guess my tongue wasn’t placed firmly enough in my cheek. NC State will be ranked in the preseason and we have a new QB starting. It’s a tall task.
Doubt it. Athlons has them #33 of 130
https://athlonsports.com/college-football/nc-state-football-2018-wolfpack-preview-and-prediction
I doubt the AP of Coaches' Polls will have them in their Top 25s. Probably will be in the "Others Receiving Votes' categories.
Agreed it will be a tall task. I'm initially seeing this as a 2-3 TD NC State win...

[KPSUL]

Agree on the offense, but the potential is certainly there to be better (probably not initially).
Defense won't likely be as dominant as last year. Only 4 starters back, (5 of 12 if you count the nickel corner as a starter). Do have a 2016 starter returning (Holloway at LB), and all 3 P5 transfers might be starting 2 DL and a safety).

Mike Houston will have JMU firing on all cylinders as quickly possible; however JMU does have to do some rebuilding, reloading or what ever you'd like to call it. I'd much rather be playing the Dukes in September rather than November when UNH does. I actually don't think it likely that any CAA team will beat JMU but between Elon, Villanova, Stony Brook and UNH, I think it is probable that one of the CAA opponents will beat JMU. I'm still reluctantly picking JMU to win the conference - I think all other conference teams will have at least two conference losses.

[Gangtackle11]

Mike Houston will have JMU firing on all cylinders as quickly possible; however JMU does have to do some rebuilding, reloading or what ever you'd like to call it. I'd much rather be playing the Dukes in September rather than November when UNH does. I actually don't think it likely that any CAA team will beat JMU but between Elon, Villanova, Stony Brook and UNH, I think it is probable that one of the CAA opponents will beat JMU. I'm still reluctantly picking JMU to win the conference - I think all other conference teams will have at least two conference losses.

Agree with this summation. Even if JMU gets upset they will defend their CAA crown. xpeacex

[BDKJMU]

That 2013 loss was among some of the worst I’ve ever seen as a fan. I’d say it was the loss that sealed mickey’s fate.

That team is nothing like what you’ll see mike Houston put out on the field though. That team went 6-6 and hadbirdsong as the QB. He was quickly replaced by vad Lee and transferred out because his pride was hurt I suppose. He’s now in the nfl ironically. I don’t think his college career was particularly noteworthy, so that is a bit of a head scratcher.

Anyways, that 2013 team clearly quit on Mickey and it was like they weren’t trying for most of the second half. The offense and defense were equally atrocious. This 2018 team will at bare minimum have a defense far superior to anything that was fielded in 2013.

Houston will have them ready to play. Mickey didn’t have them ready.

Yep, the 41-38 2013 loss to SBU dropped JMU to 6-5 and sealed MM's fate. Total defensive collapse against the pass.

2013 offense (mid pack CAA statistically), the best of the 2009-2013 period, a time period when JMU was usually dominant defense/poor offense. The problem was the usual dominant defense slipped. #1 in the CAA vs the run/9th vs the pass. That and collapsing at inopportune times (snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in 3 games lost by 2 to 7 points) was the problem.
-I disagree on the quitting. Started 6-3, lost the last 3 games @ UNH, SBU, @ TU. I was at the UNH & SBU games & saw the TU on TV. I could be wrong, but don't think they quit. Maybe some individual players at times. Not the team as a whole. I'd call it more out coached/out prepared. Even the last game, no chance at the playoffs at 6-5, only lost 28-17 vs a TU team who made Frisco. If they had quit would have had the doors blown off.
-Agree MM didn't have them fully ready, esp by the later stages of the season.

Birdsong. Talk about an odyssey.
2012, true Fr at JMU: Starts a couple of games, wins over GST & Maine, in place of Justin Thorpe (was talented from the neck down, but had issues from the neck up) before Birdsong goes out with a season ending injury in the 9th game vs Maine. JMU loses the last 2 @ VU & ODU to drop to 7-4 & miss the playoffs.
2013: Started all 12 games for JMU, set a then single season passing record. Mickey fired.
2014: Withers takes over & Vad Lee transfers in from Ga Tech. Gets beat out by Lee that Spring. Birdsong transferred 'up' to Marshall, sat out a season.
2015: Wins the Marshall starting job, starts a couple of games, doesn't do well, gets injured I think, shelved.
2016: Transfers to Tennessee Tech, wins the starting job there.

He never made an NFL roster. He got a rookie tryout with the Saints and maybe a 2nd team last year. The latest I saw is he was cut by the BC Lions of the CFL this past April.
https://www.cfl.ca/2018/04/30/roster-roundup-teams-make-cuts-may-deadline-nears/

[BDKJMU]

Mike Houston will have JMU firing on all cylinders as quickly possible; however JMU does have to do some rebuilding, reloading or what ever you'd like to call it. I'd much rather be playing the Dukes in September rather than November when UNH does. I actually don't think it likely that any CAA team will beat JMU but between Elon, Villanova, Stony Brook and UNH, I think it is probable that one of the CAA opponents will beat JMU. I'm still reluctantly picking JMU to win the conference - I think all other conference teams will have at least two conference losses.

Agree with this summation. Even if JMU gets upset they will defend their CAA crown. xpeacex
Concur. I see JMU at 9-2/7-1 with losses @ NC State and 1 CAA game, either:
-@ UNH
-@ VU
-@ UR (Don't see UR as a playoff team, but there's the whole rivalry thingy).

Don't see losses at home to Elon or SBU. Obviously not to at home to W&M or URI, or @ TU.

Over under 9-2. 10-1 or 8-3 wouldn't surprise me. 11-0 or 7-4 would.
Over under is the semis. Making Frisco or going out in the Quarterfinals wouldn't surprise me. Going out Round of 16 I'd be shocked.

[KPSUL]

I hope the conference is more competitive this season, and whichever team turns out to be the "best" representative is battle hardened by close conference games and ready to beat anyone in the later stages of the playoffs - whether it's JMU, one of the other 2017 playoff teams, or a surprise team. That was the recipe for success pre-2012.

Villanova is the toughest call for me in 2018. With a slew of high quality players returning from injury, no one likely has better raw talent. It's hard to measure how effective Nova might be with the current coaching situation since they played last season with so many top players out with injury.

Elon is also a tough call. We've seen flash in the pan performance by other FCS teams that quickly fall back to mediocrity. Cignetti had standout results in his first season. Turns out prior head coach Skrosky must have assembled pretty good player talent maybe he fell short in the game planning and management and player motivation areas. If hiring Cignetti has fixed those areas they could be contenders for a long time.

UNH enters the season, on paper, as the second favorite - In my very objective opinion. However games are not won on paper and with UNH what you see is what you'll get, where a number of other CAA teams (especially NOVA) have a higher potential up side - if everything falls in place - which more often than not doesn't happen. UNH has the toughest conference schedule, the only CAA preseason top 25 team playing all 5 of the others. We do benefit from having six home games and we play 3 of the 5 preseason favorites at home. I see the range of possible 2018 regular season records to be between 5-6 and 9-2, with the highest and lowest being statistical outliers. My prediction? 7-4, a two or three way tie for 2nd in the CAA, and another playoff appearance (with 2-3 playoff wins), and more incessant whining by the normal FCS crybabies.

[Gangtackle11]

I hope the conference is more competitive this season, and whichever team turns out to be the "best" representative is battle hardened by close conference games and ready to beat anyone in the later stages of the playoffs - whether it's JMU, one of the other 2017 playoff teams, or a surprise team. That was the recipe for success pre-2012.

Villanova is the toughest call for me in 2018. With a slew of high quality players returning from injury, no one likely has better raw talent. It's hard to measure how effective Nova might be with the current coaching situation since they played last season with so many top players out with injury.

Elon is also a tough call. We've seen flash in the pan performance by other FCS teams that quickly fall back to mediocrity. Cignetti had standout results in his first season. Turns out prior head coach Skrosky must have assembled pretty good player talent maybe he fell short in the game planning and management and player motivation areas. If hiring Cignetti has fixed those areas they could be contenders for a long time.

UNH enters the season, on paper, as the second favorite - In my very objective opinion. However games are not won on paper and with UNH what you see is what you'll get, where a number of other CAA teams (especially NOVA) have a higher potential up side - if everything falls in place - which more often than not doesn't happen. UNH has the toughest conference schedule, the only CAA preseason top 25 team playing all 5 of the others. We do benefit from having six home games and we play 3 of the 5 preseason favorites at home. I see the range of possible 2018 regular season records to be between 5-6 and 9-2, with the highest and lowest being statistical outliers. My prediction? 7-4, a two or three way tie for 2nd in the CAA, and another playoff appearance (with 2-3 playoff wins), and more incessant whining by the normal FCS crybabies.

I have a similar range of expectations from Nova. Low of 5-6 to a high of 8-3. Nova has a tough CAA schedule missing Elon, Albany, & Rhode Island. Need to split home games vs. JMU & UNH and take 2 of 3 from @SB, @Richmond, @ Delaware. No game is a given, but any playoff expectation will have wins @Lehigh, Bucknell, Towson @Maine, and W&M. Have to think Temple is an FBS loss at this point.

I’m thinking 7-4 & getting a FCS playoff berth.

[Redbird 4th & short]

JMU has a lot of reloading to do this season, especially compared to rest of Colonial. Next hardest hit is Richmond, with 2 less lost starters. More than half the conference has 4 to 8 more returning starters. If JMU can win Colonial, much less go undefeated, that will be very impressive.



CAA team
Total
Off
Def
Total2
Total % Lost


James Madison
12.8
5.9
6.9
22.0
58%


Richmond
10.8
5.8
5.0
22.0
49%


Stony Brook
10.5
5.4
5.1
22.0
48%


Maine
9.8
7.1
2.7
22.0
45%


Delaware
8.8
4.5
4.3
22.0
40%


Albany
8.1
4.1
4.0
22.0
37%


William & Mary
8.0
4.5
3.5
22.0
36%


Towson
7.1
2.5
4.6
22.0
32%


Villanova
6.3
2.5
3.8
22.0
29%


Rhode Island
6.3
2.7
3.6
22.0
29%


New Hampshire
4.6
2.5
2.1
22.0
21%


Elon
4.1
1.9
2.2
22.0
19%


Grand Total
97.2
49.4
47.8
264.0
37%

[BDKJMU]

JMU has a lot of reloading to do this season, especially compared to rest of Colonial. Next hardest hit is Richmond, with 2 less lost starters. More than half the conference has 4 to 8 more returning starters. If JMU can win Colonial, much less go undefeated, that will be very impressive.



CAA team
Total
Off
Def
Total2
Total % Lost


James Madison
12.8
5.9
6.9
22.0
58%


Richmond
10.8
5.8
5.0
22.0
49%


Stony Brook
10.5
5.4
5.1
22.0
48%


Maine
9.8
7.1
2.7
22.0
45%


Delaware
8.8
4.5
4.3
22.0
40%


Albany
8.1
4.1
4.0
22.0
37%


William & Mary
8.0
4.5
3.5
22.0
36%


Towson
7.1
2.5
4.6
22.0
32%


Villanova
6.3
2.5
3.8
22.0
29%


Rhode Island
6.3
2.7
3.6
22.0
29%


New Hampshire
4.6
2.5
2.1
22.0
21%


Elon
4.1
1.9
2.2
22.0
19%


Grand Total
97.2
49.4
47.8
264.0
37%



Not sure how you came up with JMU's (beginning of the season or end), but JMU has:
-3 players who started vs ECU who didn't start vs NDSU (RB, OG, TE) because they suffered season ending injuries in Sept & Oct.
-2016 starter at LB back after missing the entire 2017 except for vs ECU/received med redshirt. He had 16 tackles in the 2016 semis vs NDSU.
-2016 playoff starter at OT back (missed entire 2017).

[RootinFerDukes]

Those are figures worked up by Keeper which use % of statistical contribution lost. Of JMU's combined offensive and defensive stats last year, 58% of those statistical contributors are no longer on the roster.

[RootinFerDukes]

Not sure how you came up with JMU's (beginning of the season or end), but JMU has:
-3 players who started vs ECU who didn't start vs NDSU (RB, OG, TE) because they suffered season ending injuries in Sept & Oct.
-2016 starter at LB back after missing the entire 2017 except for vs ECU/received med redshirt. He had 16 tackles in the 2016 semis vs NDSU.
-2016 playoff starter at OT back (missed entire 2017).

This is an example of how people can't take those % starters lost ratings too seriously. It tells you most of the picture, but not all of it.

[dewey]

This is an example of how people can't take those % starters lost ratings too seriously. It tells you most of the picture, but not all of it.

^^^Exactly right.

Dewey

[Redbird 4th & short]

This is an example of how people can't take those % starters lost ratings too seriously. It tells you most of the picture, but not all of it.

agreed ... but all teams lose players to injury during off-season and in-season, that eventually come back. But yes, it tells you most of the picture, but never the whole picture .. especially in the first month or so of season when all you really know is what happened by end of last season.

p.s. My bad ... I should have prefaced my post and provided a link ... got to give credit where it's due. plus not everyone reads every thread ... but I did start a thread on this very valuable site.

http://www.keepratings.net/

[Redbird 4th & short]

Not sure how you came up with JMU's (beginning of the season or end), but JMU has:
-3 players who started vs ECU who didn't start vs NDSU (RB, OG, TE) because they suffered season ending injuries in Sept & Oct.
-2016 starter at LB back after missing the entire 2017 except for vs ECU/received med redshirt. He had 16 tackles in the 2016 semis vs NDSU.
-2016 playoff starter at OT back (missed entire 2017).

they do stats and starts. So the stats are weighted precisely for all their stats, not just starters, but all players. The starts are simply weighted by % of total games. So if your LT started 8 games and got injured, and a new guy came in for last 7 games including playoff run to natty. And the original starter graduated, but the replacement was back .. they would count that at 8/15 = .53 lost starter, with the replacement worth .47 as returning starter. Add it up for every position group, and that is how they count lost starters.

[KPSUL]

they do stats and starts. So the stats are weighted precisely for all their stats, not just starters, but all players. The starts are simply weighted by % of total games. So if your LT started 8 games and got injured, and a new guy came in for last 7 games including playoff run to natty. And the original starter graduated, but the replacement was back .. they would count that at 8/15 = .53 lost starter, with the replacement worth .47 as returning starter. Add it up for every position group, and that is how they count lost starters.

Yes but all of the players at JMU are so singularly outstanding that each position is awarded a full season equivalent of 1.2, not 1.0.

[Derby City Duke]

Yes but all of the players at JMU are so singularly outstanding that each position is awarded a full season equivalent of 1.2, not 1.0.

Maybe just 1.1. We might have lost .1 per position after we stopped playing in the 4th quarter the last time we were in Durham. That .1, though, won the game! :D

[RootinFerDukes]

Yes but all of the players at JMU are so singularly outstanding that each position is awarded a full season equivalent of 1.2, not 1.0.

You wouldn’t know that from how you try to downplay us. 😂

[KPSUL]

You wouldn’t know that from how you try to downplay us. 

I refer you to
CAA Offseason News & Notes ​Post #168

[KPSUL]

Maybe just 1.1. We might have lost .1 per position after we stopped playing in the 4th quarter the last time we were in Durham. That .1, though, won the game! :D

The last 11 minutes of the 4th Qtr, but whose counting. Hopefully you'll stop playing with 12 minutes left this year!

[Derby City Duke]

The last 11 minutes of the 4th Qtr, but whose counting. Hopefully you'll stop playing with 12 minutes left this year!

Yeah, you could see the mental pilot lights go out after the fumble/TD for our last score. Glad we covered the last onside...

[Derby City Duke]

I think we could be realistically playing for the #3 national seed this year. I don't think the NC State game will be nearly as close as many others do. Facing a similarly experienced UNC squad in '16, we held our own for about 22 minutes before getting beat by 4 TDs (56-28). Too many new moving parts for JMU, much like '16. And we had 2 games under our belt when we went to Cheater Hill.

Six road games this year -- Richmond earlier in the schedule than usual will shed a lot of light on this team. The only scheduling advantage is none of the big away games (UR, 'Nova, UNH) are back-to-back and our bye week comes after the 'Nova game -- habitually our toughest physical test each year.

9-2 is where I expect the regular season to end; as long as the losses are to NC State and either 'Nova or UNH, we should hold on to the #3. 10-1, regardless of loss, gets JMU the #2 and sets up a Frisco redux...

[Redbird 4th & short]

Yes but all of the players at JMU are so singularly outstanding that each position is awarded a full season equivalent of 1.2, not 1.0.
talk to keeper .. better yet, make a nice donation and I'll bet he will consider padding your teams starters.

or maybe not xrulesx

[KPSUL]

I think we could be realistically playing for the #3 national seed this year. I don't think the NC State game will be nearly as close as many others do. Facing a similarly experienced UNC squad in '16, we held our own for about 22 minutes before getting beat by 4 TDs (56-28). Too many new moving parts for JMU, much like '16. And we had 2 games under our belt when we went to Cheater Hill.

Six road games this year -- Richmond earlier in the schedule than usual will shed a lot of light on this team. The only scheduling advantage is none of the big away games (UR, 'Nova, UNH) are back-to-back and our bye week comes after the 'Nova game -- habitually our toughest physical test each year.

9-2 is where I expect the regular season to end; as long as the losses are to NC State and either 'Nova or UNH, we should hold on to the #3. 10-1, regardless of loss, gets JMU the #2 and sets up a Frisco redux...

UNH entered the Houston era at JMU with a one game edge in the series record. But Houston has our number and is 3-0 in two years. JMU is now up by 2 games in the all-time series, so we really need a win in 2018. Regardless of the futile fun I try to have at their expense, I begrudgingly give the Dukes their due. Mike Houston is truly a remarkable coach, a great communicator, mentor and motivator. Couple that with the off the chart funding the University has provided the football program for many years, beating out JMU for the conference title will be a tall order for anyone this season and maybe into the future until Mike Houston moves on to a 7 figure P5 salary.

[BDKJMU]

I think we could be realistically playing for the #3 national seed this year. I don't think the NC State game will be nearly as close as many others do. Facing a similarly experienced UNC squad in '16, we held our own for about 22 minutes before getting beat by 4 TDs (56-28). Too many new moving parts for JMU, much like '16. And we had 2 games under our belt when we went to Cheater Hill.

Six road games this year -- Richmond earlier in the schedule than usual will shed a lot of light on this team. The only scheduling advantage is none of the big away games (UR, 'Nova, UNH) are back-to-back and our bye week comes after the 'Nova game -- habitually our toughest physical test each year.

9-2 is where I expect the regular season to end; as long as the losses are to NC State and either 'Nova or UNH, we should hold on to the #3. 10-1, regardless of loss, gets JMU the #2 and sets up a Frisco redux...
I agree on 9-2/7-1 with losses @ NC State and likely either @ VU or @ UNH.

Not sure where you get a 9-2/7-1 JMU at a #3 seed. Heck 2016 a 10-1/8-0 JMU was the #4 seed.
-10-1 NDSU (and maybe even 9-2 NDSU win with 2 I-AA losses) would be ahead of a 9-2 JMU.
-10-1 Big Sky, So Con, or JSU would be ahead of a 9-2 JMU.
-11-0 KSU or Soft Houston would be ahead of a 9-2 JMU.
-9-2 CAA that won head to head over JMU would be ahead of a 9-2 JMU

JMU:
11-0 likely #1 seed
10-1 likely #1 to #3 seed
9-2 likely #4 to #6 seed
8-3 possible #7 to #8 seed, or unseeded (UR got a #7 seed at 8-3/6-2 in 2015)

[cx500d]

I agree on 9-2/7-1 with losses @ NC State and likely either @ VU or @ UNH.

Not sure where you get a 9-2/7-1 JMU at a #3 seed. 2016 Heck 2016 a 10-1/8-0 JMU was the #4 seed.
-10-1 NDSU (and maybe even 9-2 NDSU win with 2 I-AA losses) would be ahead of a 9-2 JMU.
-10-1 Big Sky, So Con, or JSU would be ahead of a 9-2 JMU.
-11-0 KSU or Soft Houston would be ahead of a 9-2 JMU.
-9-2 CAA that won head to head over JMU would be ahead of a 9-2 JMU

-9-2/7-1 JMU will likely be anywhere from the #4 to #6 seed.

A loss to ncst will drop you out of the top 20, so you better win


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[TheKingpin28]

I agree on 9-2/7-1 with losses @ NC State and likely either @ VU or @ UNH.

Not sure where you get a 9-2/7-1 JMU at a #3 seed. 2016 Heck 2016 a 10-1/8-0 JMU was the #4 seed.
-10-1 NDSU (and maybe even 9-2 NDSU win with 2 I-AA losses) would be ahead of a 9-2 JMU.
Yes. We all know that the committee claims to be objective, but NDSU in Frisco is better for the FCS than them not being there.

-10-1 Big Sky, So Con, or JSU would be ahead of a 9-2 JMU.
Potentially, Yes, and No. I say potentially as it depends who it is since EWU/UM at 10-1 is a shoe in, but another team would probably be a no depending on who they played. Yes to the SoCon as either Furman, Samford, or Wofford would get the benefit of the doubt due to the SOS. No to JSU as I think the committee finally sees them for who they are and if they lose to NCAT or APSU or KSU, they will immediately fall as there is nothing there.

-11-0 KSU or Soft Houston would be ahead of a 9-2 JMU.
Yes and No. If KSU finished 11-0 JSU falls to 10-1 and I believe JMU will get more respect as KSU gets that 2 and JMU gets that 3 as the committee will want JMU on the other side of the bracket to ensure a rematch happens in Frisco. I just don't see an 11-0 SHSU in as over half of their conference is in the bottom half of the strength of the FCS. I truly believe an 11-0 SHSU gets anywhere from 4-6. Don't worry, Daytripper will call me out and bash me for my "anti-SHSU" rhetoric, even though he knows I am correct.

-9-2 CAA that won head to head over JMU would be ahead of a 9-2 JMU
Yes. Self-explanatory

-9-2/7-1 JMU will likely be anywhere from the #4 to #6 seed.
If KSU goes 11-0, that means JSU goes 10-1 with a weak schedule and conference. So one team is gone and KSU gets the #2 as they will have beaten 10-1 JSU and a Samford team with arguably the best QB in the FCS in Hodges. Now if EWU or UM go 10-1, well then it gets interesting. I'd put them above a 9-2 JMU, but if it is an "underdawg" from the Big Sky, then I think JMU will get the nod to keep JMU on the opposite side of NDSU. You're best bet for a 9-2 JMU to get a 3 seed is for: Sparknotes for a 3 seed

-JSU goes 10-1 but beats KSU.
-Big Sky plays a "Valley" like schedule and beats each other up with an underdawg winning the Big Sky.
-SHSU goes 11-0 and the rest of the Southland craps on its own SOS.
-Do not lose the CAA tiebreaker.
-KSU loses to JSU and/or Samford.
-Samford does NOT win the SoCon and beats KSU

Yes it seem implausible, but tbh, it is and would require some massive twists and turns, but I believe if those 6 things happen, I believe that you are in using your own criteria.

[RootinFerDukes]

A loss to ncst will drop you out of the top 20, so you better win


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Pff please. A loss to an acc team would require we drop to NAIA. You’re giving us way too much credit.

[Derby City Duke]

I agree on 9-2/7-1 with losses @ NC State and likely either @ VU or @ UNH.

Not sure where you get a 9-2/7-1 JMU at a #3 seed. Heck 2016 a 10-1/8-0 JMU was the #4 seed.
-10-1 NDSU (and maybe even 9-2 NDSU win with 2 I-AA losses) would be ahead of a 9-2 JMU.
-10-1 Big Sky, So Con, or JSU would be ahead of a 9-2 JMU.
-11-0 KSU or Soft Houston would be ahead of a 9-2 JMU.
-9-2 CAA that won head to head over JMU would be ahead of a 9-2 JMU

JMU:
11-0 likely #1 seed
10-1 likely #1 to #3 seed
9-2 likely #4 to #6 seed
8-3 possible #7 to #8 seed, or unseeded (UR got a #7 seed at 8-3/6-2 in 2015)

A lot of it is where you start. In 2016 JMU was preseason #12 and didn't make top 5 in the polls until the final regular season poll. Remember that was Coach Houston's 1st year with a group of players who, quite frankly, had earned the label of underachievers and individualists

10-1 with the loss to NCSU means we beat Richmond, UNH (#3), and 'Nova (#11) on the road plus #10 Elon at home. The committee would have to have lost its collective mind to drop JMU below #3.

9-2 is admittedly dicier with regard to positioning. Here the committee would have to address an interesting conundrum:

-- keep JMU in the #3 (provided the 2 losses are to NCSU and UNH -- and UNH wins the CAA @8-0)

or

-- drop JMU to the #4/#5 slot and set up a Fargo repeat of 2016, which is NOT where the overlords would prefer they meet...

or (based on some 11-0 conference champs elsewhere as outlined by others)

-- drop them to #6 to keep them opposite NDSU and have a pissed off squad of Dukes going on the road

Lots of football to be played and it will be interesting to see it all play out.

[Longhorn]

The entire season's record for JMU depends on how the OL gels, and if the starters stay healthy. If last year's OL starters improve, and the injured players return (and play at a high level), I predict JMU will return to Frisco.

[BDKJMU]

A lot of it is where you start. In 2016 JMU was preseason #12 and didn't make top 5 in the polls until the final regular season poll. Remember that was Coach Houston's 1st year with a group of players who, quite frankly, had earned the label of underachievers and individualists

10-1 with the loss to NCSU means we beat Richmond, UNH (#3), and 'Nova (#11) on the road plus #10 Elon at home. The committee would have to have lost its collective mind to drop JMU below #3.

9-2 is admittedly dicier with regard to positioning. Here the committee would have to address an interesting conundrum:

-- keep JMU in the #3 (provided the 2 losses are to NCSU and UNH -- and UNH wins the CAA @8-0)

or

-- drop JMU to the #4/#5 slot and set up a Fargo repeat of 2016, which is NOT where the overlords would prefer they meet...

or (based on some 11-0 conference champs elsewhere as outlined by others)

-- drop them to #6 to keep them opposite NDSU and have a pissed off squad of Dukes going on the road

Lots of football to be played and it will be interesting to see it all play out.

-Doesn't really matter where you start in the polls. The pre season polls are about as worthless as titties on a bull. Similar to recruit rankings, they are only for us arm chair QB fans. That's it. I didn't think the 2 "official" polls were out yet. I assume you're referring to Athlons, or Lindy's or someone else. I don't know- I don't start to pay any attention to any polls until mid Oct.
-The committee doesn't do the playoff field off the polls. They might look at them, but the polls never line up exactly with the seeds. Ex- Remember SHSU was #1 in the final regular season polls, but the #5 seed. Granted, 2016 was an odd year with five 10 win teams + an 11-0, but a 9-2/7-1 JMU that year would likely have been the #7 seed.

-Elon won't be #10 when, Nova won't be #11, UNH won't be #3, or whatever it is some pre season polls have them, when JMU plays them. Doesn't matter. One, 2, or all 3 of them will have multiple losses when JMU plays them.

-If JMU finishes 9-2/7-1 and loses to UNH, VU, or Elon, and they finished 9-2/7-1, much less 8-0 CAA, they would be seeded ahead of JMU. Cut and dry. No conundrum for the committee there.
-A 9-2/7-1 JMU isn't finishing ahead of a 10-1/8-0 Big Sky or So Con, irregardless of where they are in some pre season polls. Remember the committee said they don't consider I-A losses, so that Big Sky or So-Con would likely be looked at as 10-0.
-A 9-2/7-1 JMU probably would be ahead of a 10-1 JSU, SHSU (neither play a I-A game/weak conferences), or a 10-1 KSU (weak conference), but would be behind any of them that finished 11-0 (Yeah I know JSU is @ KSU). A 10-1 JMU can jump an 11-0 from a weak conference (see 2016). But not a 9-2 JMU.

You're assuming NDSU is going to be the #1 seed and the committee will refuse to put them on the same side of the bracket as JMU.
-In NDSU's 7 year run they've gone 7-1 in the MVFC 6 times, 8-0 once. They've been the #1 seed 3 times, #2 seed 3 times, and #3 seed once (I'm sure an NDSU fan will correct me if wrong). So 50/50 a #4 or #5 seed JMU could be on the opposite side of the bracket of NDSU.
-Obviously if push comes to shove they'll put NDSU & JMU on the same side of the bracket. They just did it a year and a half ago.

Could a 9-2 JMU be the #3 seed? Sure. But its very unlikely. ALOT of things would have to fall a certain way (some laid it out a few posts prior). The much more likely is #4 to #6..

[cx500d]

Pff please. A loss to an acc team would require we drop to NAIA. You’re giving us way too much credit.

👍😂


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[Derby City Duke]

-Doesn't really matter where you start in the polls. The pre season polls are about as worthless as titties on a bull. Similar to recruit rankings, they are only for us arm chair QB fans. That's it. I didn't think the 2 "official" polls were out yet. I assume you're referring to Athlons, or Lindy's or someone else. I don't know- I don't start to pay any attention to any polls until mid Oct.

-Obviously if push comes to shove they'll put NDSU & JMU on the same side of the bracket. They just did it a year and a half ago.

Could a 9-2 JMU be the #3 seed? Sure. But its very unlikely. ALOT of things would have to fall a certain way (some laid it out a few posts prior). The much more likely is #4 to #6..

Used the 2016 STATs preseason poll.

Maybe I wasn't clear. If UNH wins the CAA at 8-0 and finishes 10-1 (losing only to Colorado) they have a great shot at the #2 seed and would provide rationale for the committee to leave JMU @ #3

In 2016, we were an very unknown quantity; not so much any more. I am cynical enough to fully believe the committee and FCS overlords would rather see a Toyota Stadium stuffed to the gills with JMU and NDSU fans than set them up for an earlier meeting.

As far as NDSU is concerned, the committee won't seed them below #1 unless they lose twice - and I don't think that will happen without some really weird stuff occurring.

But hey, it's why the kids play the games. Sit back and enjoy the season.

[Longhorn]

Used the 2016 STATs preseason poll.


As far as NDSU is concerned, the committee won't seed them below #1 unless they lose twice - and I don't think that will happen without some really weird stuff occurring.

But hey, it's why the kids play the games. Sit back and enjoy the season.

Oh, I don't know about that. Say JMU beats NCST, and finishes undefeated and NDSU has just one loss, JMU will be the #1 seed.

[Derby City Duke]

Oh, I don't know about that. Say JMU beats NCST, and finishes undefeated and NDSU has just one loss, JMU will be the #1 seed.

In that scenario, I agree. Bottom line is that #1 and #2 don't really matter since the 'ship is in Frisco. 3-8 determines who goes to the lions' dens...

[RootinFerDukes]

In that scenario, I agree. Bottom line is that #1 and #2 don't really matter since the 'ship is in Frisco. 3-8 determines who goes to the lions' dens...

The 2 seed matters. It means you get a cupcake half of the bracket.

[BDKJMU]

Oh, I don't know about that. Say JMU beats NCST, and finishes undefeated and NDSU has just one loss, JMU will be the #1 seed.
JMU can lose to NCST and still be undefeated as far as the comittee is concerned.

Remember 2 things they’ve stated in the past- they don’t consider I-A losses (or Div II wins), and they put an emphasis on going 8-0 in conference.

(Not counting I-A losses)
2014
-#1 seed UNH (10-0) (1-0 vs playoff teams, dnp playoff VU or JMU)
-#2 seed NDSU 10-1/7-1 (2-1 vs playoff teams, dnp #3 seed ILSU, win over Iowa St).
People (myself included) were like how did UNH get the #1 seed, they got thumped by Toledo & their resume isnt as strong. Well, it was the whole don’t get penalized for I-A losses and the emphasis on going 8-0 in conference.

2016
-#1 seed NDSU (10-1/7-1) (3-1 vs playoff teams). Their OOC resume was ridiculous- wins over ranked Iowa & 10-1/8-0 EWU. While you won’t get penalized for losing to a I-A, you get credited for beating one, esp a ranked P5. Heck, JSU in 2015 (10-0/8-0) basically snagged the #1 seed because they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in losing in OT @ #6 Auburn.
-#2 EWU (10-1/8-0). Only lost @ NDSU in OT. Win over P5 WSU. Why JSU & JMU, both 10-0/8-0, were the #3 & #4 seeds.

NDSU plays N Alabama, Cal Poly, UD OOC. They miss MVFC cellar dwellar Larry Bird U, who I take it won’t be one of the MVFC playoff teams. NDSU could play as little as 3 playoff teams (if MVFC gets 4 in) or as many as 6 playoff teams (if MVFC gets 5 in & Cal Poly & UD both made playoffs (yeah I know, unlikely)) 5-1 vs playoff teams vs 2-1 is a big differece resume wise. Point is NDSU isn’t a lock for #1 seed at 10-1..I think 5 times during their 7 year run they finished 10-1. Twice were #1 seed, 3 times #2 seed (3rd time they were #1 seed was when 11-0).

[Derby City Duke]

JMU can lose to NCST and still be undefeated as far as the comittee is concerned.

Remember 2 things they’ve stated in the past- they don’t consider I-A losses (or Div II wins), and they put an emphasis on going 8-0 in conference.

(Not counting I-A losses)
2014
-#1 seed UNH (10-0) (1-0 vs playoff teams, dnp playoff VU or JMU)
-#2 seed NDSU 10-1/7-1 (2-1 vs playoff teams, dnp #3 seed ILSU, win over Iowa St).
People (myself included) were like how did UNH get the #1 seed, they got thumped by Toledo & their resume isnt as strong. Well, it was the whole don’t get penalized for I-A losses and the emphasis on going 8-0 in conference.

2016
-#1 seed NDSU (10-1/7-1) (3-1 vs playoff teams). Their OOC resume was ridiculous- wins over ranked Iowa & 10-1/8-0 EWU. While you won’t get penalized for losing to a I-A, you get credited for beating one, esp a ranked P5. Heck, JSU in 2015 (10-0/8-0) basically snagged the #1 seed because they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in losing in OT @ #6 Auburn.
-#2 EWU (10-1/8-0). Only lost @ NDSU in OT. Win over P5 WSU. Why JSU & JMU, both 10-0/8-0, were the #3 & #4 seeds.

NDSU plays N Alabama, Cal Poly, UD OOC. They miss MVFC cellar dwellar Larry Bird U, who I take it won’t be one of the MVFC playoff teams. NDSU could play as little as 3 playoff teams (if MVFC gets 4 in) or as many as 6 playoff teams (if MVFC gets 5 in & Cal Poly & UD both made playoffs (yeah I know, unlikely)) 5-1 vs playoff teams vs 2-1 is a big differece resume wise. Point is NDSU isn’t a lock for #1 seed at 10-1..I think 5 times during their 7 year run they finished 10-1. Twice were #1 seed, 3 times #2 seed (3rd time they were #1 seed was when 11-0).

Ok, I give on the analytics.

JMU will win and lose some combination of 11 games in the regular season, will or will not earn a playoff berth where they may win game(s) and possibly lose one to some other team.

[TheKingpin28]

Ok, I give on the analytics.

JMU will win and lose some combination of 11 games in the regular season, will or will not earn a playoff berth where they may win game(s) and possibly lose one to some other team.

I already know the bye is going to wreck some playoff hopes this year.