Odds to win the championship

[CappinHard]

Not sure if someone posted this elsewhere, but it makes for interesting discussion as things get started. Fwiw, I didn't see these odds on 5dimes, they were tweeted out by HERO Sports writer Sam Herder.

NDSU -140
JMU +200
SDSU +1050
USD +2500
UNI +2700
SUU +2750
JSU +3400
WIU +4500
UCA +6000
NAU +10000
Weber +11000
Furman +17500
SHSU +40000

I'm not sure why all 16 teams aren't on the list, but I found the odds for SHSU hilarious. Telling that all 5 MVFC teams are in the top 8 for odds to win it all. I have to agree with the odds of the top 2, and JMU at +200 is very tempting along with SDSU at +1050. Not that it matters, because if these odds were up, they're gone now as far as I can tell.

[frozennorth]

Not sure if someone posted this elsewhere, but it makes for interesting discussion as things get started. Fwiw, I didn't see these odds on 5dimes, they were tweeted out by HERO Sports writer Sam Herder.

NDSU -140
JMU +200
SDSU +1050
USD +2500
UNI +2700
SUU +2750
JSU +3400
WIU +4500
UCA +6000
NAU +10000
Weber +11000
Furman +17500
SHSU +40000

I'm not sure why all 16 teams aren't on the list, but I found the odds for SHSU hilarious. Telling that all 5 MVFC teams are in the top 8 for odds to win it all. I have to agree with the odds of the top 2, and JMU at +200 is very tempting along with SDSU at +1050. Not that it matters, because if these odds were up, they're gone now as far as I can tell.
am I reading correctly that NDSU is a favorite against the field?

[thebootfitter]

There's a guy on Bisonville who uses the Sagarin ratings to predict the probability of each team advancing each round. Pretty cool stuff. According to Sagarin, NDSU definitely got the easier bracket this year. Consequently, per the numbers, their chances of making the championship game are pretty darn high.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

[TennBison]

The team that goes to the championship game out of the JMU side of the bracket for sure is going to be battle tested. They might also be pretty beaten up as well. It seemed in the past that most of the time NDSU has been in what was thought to be the toughest bracket to get out of. At the moment (during the selection processes), fans are having a fit when they see their teams in those brackets, but looking back on it now, I think NDSU became better off because of it. Odds are, JMU is going to win their side, they are just to complete of a team. NDSU seems to be on track and should have a good chance to make Frisco as well. If NDSU and JMU do meet in Frisco, I am going to say it is a 50/50 chance for either team to win it and if there is any edge ATM it would be in slight favor of JMU. For the NCAA this would probably be a dream matchup and for sure it is one that NDSU fans would like to see so that the Bison have a chance at revenge. Attendance would be through the roof.

[TennBison]

USD at #4 ?????? They were lucky IMO to even make the playoffs. Lost 4 of their last 5 going in. And now someone is putting them as the 4th best team with a chance to win it????

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

The team that goes to the championship game out of the JMU side of the bracket for sure is going to be battle tested. They might also be pretty beaten up as well. It seemed in the past that most of the time NDSU has been in what was thought to be the toughest bracket to get out of. At the moment (during the selection processes), fans are having a fit when they see their teams in those brackets, but looking back on it now, I think NDSU became better off because of it. Odds are, JMU is going to win their side, they are just to complete of a team. NDSU seems to be on track and should have a good chance to make Frisco as well. If NDSU and JMU do meet in Frisco, I am going to say it is a 50/50 chance for either team to win it and if there is any edge ATM it would be in slight favor of JMU. For the NCAA this would probably be a dream matchup and for sure it is one that NDSU fans would like to see so that the Bison have a chance at revenge. Attendance would be through the roof.


Bison tailgate 2.0 for a 6th time....xthumbsupx

[mmiller_34]

USD at #4 ?????? They were lucky IMO to even make the playoffs. Lost 4 of their last 5 going in. And now someone is putting them as the 4th best team with a chance to win it????

Somehow they were gifted a cakewalk until their semi-final.

[JSUSoutherner]

Somehow they were gifted a cakewalk until their semi-final.
xcoffeex

[Terrier19]

I love the disrespect........

[Terrier19]

I keep seeing how easy NDSU has it.........shrugs.........I would like to revisit that in a couple weeks.

[Professor Chaos]

There's a guy on Bisonville who uses the Sagarin ratings to predict the probability of each team advancing each round. Pretty cool stuff. According to Sagarin, NDSU definitely got the easier bracket this year. Consequently, per the numbers, their chances of making the championship game are pretty darn high.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
I posted it in another thread so wouldn't hurt to post it here I guess. You can definitely see the parralels in the percentages below and the odds in the OP.


Let the games begin! 2.61 for a bye. 2.31 for home field.

Sag (Seed) Team............. Rd1.... Rd2.... Qtr.... Semi.... Final
73.00 (1) James Madison.......... 95.0% 76.5% 54.4% 26.1%
39.58 Lehigh................... 8.3%.. 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%. 0.0%
56.07 Stony Brook......... 91.7%. 4.9%.. 1.3%. 0.2%.. 0.0%

62.56 (8) Southern Utah.......... 57.7% 11.6%. 3.7%.. 0.8%
66.58 Western Illinois.... 54.6% 25.9%. 7.3%.. 3.0%.. 0.9%
62.70 Weber State........ 45.4% 16.4%.. 3.3%.. 1.1%. 0.2%


70.88 (5) South Dakota State... 78.1% 55.0% 25.4% 10.8%
47.91 Monmouth-NJ......... 6.7%. 0.1%.. 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%
65.97 Northern Iowa...... 93.3% 21.8% 12.5%. 4.0%.. 1.2%

62.20 (4) Central Arkansas........ 92.1% 32.2%. 8.1%.. 1.8%
44.45 Central Connecticut 30.2%. 1.4%.. 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%
49.14 New Hampshire..... 69.8%. 6.4%.. 0.3%. 0.0%.. 0.0%




63.60 (3) Jacksonville State....... 75.9% 47.8%. 9.0%.. 2.8%
59.70 Samford............... 47.0% 12.1%. 5.5%.. 0.7%. 0.1%
58.40 Kennesaw State.... 53.0% 12.0%. 5.1%.. 0.6%. 0.1%

57.34 (6) Sam Houston State.... 46.9% 15.2%. 1.6%.. 0.3%
65.03 South Dakota....... 89.1% 51.8% 26.2%. 5.4%.. 1.9%
46.04 Nicholls State........ 10.9%. 1.3%.. 0.1%. 0.0%.. 0.0%


55.37 (7) Wofford.................... 62.3%. 3.8%.. 1.1%. 0.2%
58.60 Furman................ 69.5% 31.3%. 2.7%.. 0.9%. 0.2%
49.42 Elon..................... 30.5%. 6.4%.. 0.2%. 0.0%.. 0.0%

76.20 (2) North Dakota State.... 96.3% 91.4% 80.1% 52.5%
45.25 San Diego............. 13.9%. 0.1%.. 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%
57.61 Northern Arizona... 86.1%. 3.6%.. 1.9%. 0.6%.. 0.1%

http://www.bisonville.com/forum/showthread.php?38402-2017-Sagarin-Says&p=1241019#post1241019

[mmiller_34]

I posted it in another thread so wouldn't hurt to post it here I guess. You can definitely see the parralels in the percentages below and the odds in the OP.



http://www.bisonville.com/forum/showthread.php?38402-2017-Sagarin-Says&p=1241019#post1241019


Just going to put this into a grid for you to make it easier to read. I came across this on reddit last night too.




Sagarin Rating
Seed
Team

Round 1
Round 2
Quarter Finals
Semi Finals
Championship


73
1
James Madison

-
95.00%
76.50%
54.40%
26.10%


39.58

Lehigh

8.30%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


56.07

Stony Brook

91.70%
4.90%
1.30%
0.20%
0.00%













62.56
8
Southern Utah

-
57.70%
11.60%
3.70%
0.80%


66.58

Western Illinois

54.60%
25.90%
7.30%
3.00%
0.90%


62.7

Weber State

45.40%
16.40%
3.30%
1.10%
0.20%













70.88
5
South Dakota State

-
78.10%
55.00%
25.40%
10.80%


47.91

Monmouth-NJ

6.70%
0.10%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


65.97

Northern Iowa

93.30%
21.80%
12.50%
4.00%
1.20%













62.2
4
Central Arkansas

-
92.10%
32.20%
8.10%
1.80%


44.45

Central Connecticut

30.20%
1.40%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


49.14

New Hampshire

69.80%
6.40%
0.30%
0.00%
0.00%
























63.6
3
Jacksonville State

-
75.90%
47.80%
9.00%
2.80%


59.7

Samford

47.00%
12.10%
5.50%
0.70%
0.10%


58.4

Kennesaw State

53.00%
12.00%
5.10%
0.60%
0.10%













57.34
6
Sam Houston State

-
46.90%
15.20%
1.60%
0.30%


65.03

South Dakota

89.10%
51.80%
26.20%
5.40%
1.90%


46.06

Nicholls State

10.90%
1.30%
0.10%
0.00%
0.00%













55.37
7
Wofford

-
62.30%
3.80%
1.10%
0.20%


58.6

Furman

69.50%
31.30%
2.70%
0.90%
0.20%


49.42

Elon

30.50%
6.40%
0.20%
0.00%
0.00%













76.2
2
North Dakota State

-
96.30%
91.40%
80.10%
52.50%


45.25

San Diego

13.90%
0.10%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


57.61

Northern Arizona

86.10%
3.60%
1.90%
0.60%
0.10%

[Howlingyote]

USD at #4 ?????? They were lucky IMO to even make the playoffs. Lost 4 of their last 5 going in. And now someone is putting them as the 4th best team with a chance to win it????

So tired of this USD "lucky to get in garbage." Two of our losses were to NDSU (ranked #1) and a 3 point loss to a SDSU that we should of won and missed a 42 yard FG. Keep underestimating the yotes. You'll see...

[JSUSoutherner]

So tired of this USD "lucky to get in garbage." Two of our losses were to NDSU (ranked #1) and a 3 point loss to a SDSU that we should of won and missed a 42 yard FG. Keep underestimating the yotes. You'll see...
#QualityLosses

[PantherRob82]

So tired of this USD "lucky to get in garbage." Two of our losses were to NDSU (ranked #1) and a 3 point loss to a SDSU that we should of won and missed a 42 yard FG. Keep underestimating the yotes. You'll see...

November is coming!

[Professor Chaos]

So tired of this USD "lucky to get in garbage." Two of our losses were to NDSU (ranked #1) and a 3 point loss to a SDSU that we should of won and missed a 42 yard FG. Keep underestimating the yotes. You'll see...
Wow... saying USD would've beaten SDSU had they made that early 4th quarter field goal is some pretty strongly spiked red Kool-Aid. SDSU put it on cruise control their last two possessions when they had been shredding the Yote defense with regularity in the 2nd half. Not fumbling in SDSU territory when they were down 10 with 3.5 minutes left would've been a lot better idea if USD had any intentions to win that game.

[Reign of Terrier]

These Massey/Sagarin bits are interesting, but I think it needs to be reiterated that they are probably unhelpful past the second round.

Beyond the obvious "upsets can happen" point, teams can under and overperform in the first/second in a way that changes the forecast outputs.

I think it's a pretty sound expectation to say that NDSU and JMU are the favorites this year, but the "math" says a lot less than you'd think

[Daytripper]

Not sure if someone posted this elsewhere, but it makes for interesting discussion as things get started. Fwiw, I didn't see these odds on 5dimes, they were tweeted out by HERO Sports writer Sam Herder.

NDSU -140
JMU +200
SDSU +1050
USD +2500
UNI +2700
SUU +2750
JSU +3400
WIU +4500
UCA +6000
NAU +10000
Weber +11000
Furman +17500
SHSU +40000

I'm not sure why all 16 teams aren't on the list, but I found the odds for SHSU hilarious. Telling that all 5 MVFC teams are in the top 8 for odds to win it all. I have to agree with the odds of the top 2, and JMU at +200 is very tempting along with SDSU at +1050. Not that it matters, because if these odds were up, they're gone now as far as I can tell.

I would put some coin on SUU with those odds. And my own Bearkats for that matter. Good lord that would be a hell of a payoff.

[mmiller_34]

Wow... saying USD would've beaten SDSU had they made that early 4th quarter field goal is some pretty strongly spiked red Kool-Aid. SDSU put it on cruise control their last two possessions when they had been shredding the Yote defense with regularity in the 2nd half. Not fumbling in SDSU territory when they were down 10 with 3.5 minutes left would've been a lot better idea if USD had any intentions to win that game.

https://media.tenor.com/images/2e3663715ca4b44d1aa1f13a212f8bd0/tenor.gif

If we keep talking about that game, the next few pages will be littered with talk about how cramps develop and how to best treat it.

[cx500d]

Wow... saying USD would've beaten SDSU had they made that early 4th quarter field goal is some pretty strongly spiked red Kool-Aid. SDSU put it on cruise control their last two possessions when they had been shredding the Yote defense with regularity in the 2nd half. Not fumbling in SDSU territory when they were down 10 with 3.5 minutes left would've been a lot better idea if USD had any intentions to win that game.

Moving the ball 2” further at the goal line would’ve helped also


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[TennBison]

So tired of this USD "lucky to get in garbage." Two of our losses were to NDSU (ranked #1) and a 3 point loss to a SDSU that we should of won and missed a 42 yard FG. Keep underestimating the yotes. You'll see...
Who cares if you are tired of it. It is a undisputable fact that USD lost their way into the playoffs. Losing four out of the last five is almost a guarantee to help a team not make it in. A win over a FBS team (that is no better than an average FCS school), and the fact that USD lost to NDSU and SDSU is what saved them (barely). USD counting good losses (to NDSU, and SDSU) as reasons to get in is a flipping joke. Instead of using other teams good record as a reason to get in, how about it if USD were to win their own way in.

[TennBison]

https://media.tenor.com/images/2e3663715ca4b44d1aa1f13a212f8bd0/tenor.gif

If we keep talking about that game, the next few pages will be littered with talk about how cramps develop and how to best treat it.
Hydration and Icey Hot.............just sayin. Oh, and I forgot, bananas.

[mmiller_34]

Hydration and Icey Hot.............just sayin. Oh, and I forgot, bananas.

https://media.giphy.com/media/hfYJbXXfs2dA4/source.gif

[Yotes21]

Who cares if you are tired of it. It is a undisputable fact that USD lost their way into the playoffs. Losing four out of the last five is almost a guarantee to help a team not make it in. A win over a FBS team (that is no better than an average FCS school), and the fact that USD lost to NDSU and SDSU is what saved them (barely). USD counting good losses (to NDSU, and SDSU) as reasons to get in is a flipping joke. Instead of using other teams good record as a reason to get in, how about it if USD were to win their own way in.

Hmm, they must have won some games otherwise they would be at home. At this point who cares?

[NDSUtk]

I would put some coin on SUU with those odds. And my own Bearkats for that matter. Good lord that would be a hell of a payoff.

I'd stick with coin as well if you're putting money on SHSU to go deep in the playoffs too. Using dollars would be too much money wasted!

[Yotes21]

https://media.giphy.com/media/hfYJbXXfs2dA4/source.gif

What movie is this from, it looks so familiar... Weekend at Bernies?

[mmiller_34]

What movie is this from, it looks so familiar... Weekend at Bernies?

The Big Short

[mmiller_34]

Jeez, the past hour has been excruciating. Please let these games just start.

9 more minutes.

[Yotes21]

The Big Short

Ah yes, good movie and I was only off by about 25 years.

[mmiller_34]

Ah yes, good movie and I was only off by about 25 years.

Eh. Close enough!

GO YOTES TODAY!

[Redbird 4th & short]

So tired of this USD "lucky to get in garbage." Two of our losses were to NDSU (ranked #1) and a 3 point loss to a SDSU that we should of won and missed a 42 yard FG. Keep underestimating the yotes. You'll see...
people assume your ISUr was a bad loss. We were possibly the most up and down team in FCS this season. That day, you guys caught us playing like a top 5 team. We had other very good games or halves, but then we had inexplicably bad games or halves .. so people assume we were an average team .. we were anything but average .. in fact we never played average. We fired 3 offensive coaches as a result of this.

Only thing working against USD in playoffs is you are probably more banged up and depleted than most teams, and will not host any game. But you clearly earned a playoff spot. I disagree that committee believed you were 1 of last 4 in .. USD is clearly well within top 20. USD beat weak teams for 30-50 points. Nichols St beats them by 3 - 10 points.

[Daytripper]

I'd stick with coin as well if you're putting money on SHSU to go deep in the playoffs too. Using dollars would be too much money wasted!

Yeah, because the Bearkats never make to the Quarters or the Semis...

https://www.reactiongifs.com/rolling-eyes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rolling-eyes

https://www.reactiongifs.com/rolling-eyes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rolling-eyes
https://media0.giphy.com/media/3h5pe45FM9qUM/giphy.gif

[NDSUtk]

Yeah, because the Bearkats never make to the Quarters or the Semis...

https://www.reactiongifs.com/rolling-eyes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rolling-eyes

https://www.reactiongifs.com/rolling-eyes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rolling-eyes
https://media0.giphy.com/media/3h5pe45FM9qUM/giphy.gif

Those aren't odds to make it to the quarters or semis. It's to win the championship bud. Runner up tshirts don't get paid out!

[Daytripper]

Your post states going deep in the playoffs. Do you not comprehend your own writing?

[NDSUtk]

Your post states going deep in the playoffs. Do you not comprehend your own writing?

I do. But then again, you just said you consider making the quarter finals "deep in the playoffs" which is cute. But I guess that's maybe your expectations of your team.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I do. But then again, you just said you consider making the quarter finals "deep in the playoffs" which is cute. But I guess that's maybe your expectations of your team.




Aww....give tripper a break, his team has been outscored by something like 500-21 their last 3 playoff games.....xlolx

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=26604&stc=1

[NDSUtk]

Aww....give tripper a break, his team has been outscored by something like 500-21 their last 3 playoff games.....xlolx



Oh good point... He probably that the was the line and SHSU was getting 40k points to keep it competitive xnodx

[thebootfitter]

I keep seeing how easy NDSU has it.........shrugs.........I would like to revisit that in a couple weeks.Dude... Statistically, they do have it easy. We are all (?) sophisticated enough to recognize that statistics and computers don't determine the outcome of the game.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

[KTF]

I have always enjoyed when Bisonaudit posts these predictions on bisonville. For the most part they are not usually wrong but there have been times when NDSU has not lived up to the odds.

Not sure if Bisonaudit posts on here but keep up the good work!

[mmiller_34]

76.2
2
North Dakota State

-
96.30%
91.40%
80.10%
52.50%


45.25

San Diego

13.90%
0.10%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


57.61

Northern Arizona

86.10%
3.60%
1.90%
0.60%
0.10%





So am I reading this right?

San Diego has a .1% chance to beat the Bison?

[TheKingpin28]

76.2
2
North Dakota State

-
96.30%
91.40%
80.10%
52.50%


45.25

San Diego

13.90%
0.10%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


57.61

Northern Arizona

86.10%
3.60%
1.90%
0.60%
0.10%




So am I reading this right?

San Diego has a .1% chance to beat the Bison?

Based off of the chart and metric for how it works, the answer is yes.

[KTF]

76.2
2
North Dakota State

-
96.30%
91.40%
80.10%
52.50%


45.25

San Diego

13.90%
0.10%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


57.61

Northern Arizona

86.10%
3.60%
1.90%
0.60%
0.10%




So am I reading this right?

San Diego has a .1% chance to beat the Bison?

Yes I believe that is what it is saying... Seems low after tonights game...