Playoff short hand for this week

[Reign of Terrier]

A short-hand guide to clinching a playoff berth next week:


Locks (13):
Southern Utah
Weber
JMU
Elon
Stony Brook
NDSU
SDSU
CCSU
Jacksonville State
San Diego
Wofford
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston State
Win and you’re likely in(14--notice the catch here 13+14>24):
NAU
Lehigh
Montana
Kennesaw
Monmouth
New Hampshire
Delaware
South Dakota
Western Illinois
Illinois State
UNI
Western Carolina
Furman
Samford

Win and wait and see (9):
Nichols
McNeese
Colgate
Austin Peay
Eastern Washington
Sacramento State

Lose and you’re still alive, pending on the field(9):
Furman
Western Illinois
South Dakota
New Hampshire
Delaware
Monmouth
Kennesaw State
Montana
Northern Arizona

Lose and you are almost certainly out(9):
Samford
Western Carolina
Eastern Washington
Sacramento State
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
Nichols
McNeese
Austin Peay

[BEAR]

This committee is going to have a fit when:

UCA goes 10-1
SHSU goes 10-1
McNeese goes 9-2
Nicholls goes 9-2

xlolx

[TheKingpin28]

A short-hand guide to clinching a playoff berth next week:


Locks (13):
Southern Utah
Weber
JMU
Elon
Stony Brook
NDSU
SDSU
CCSU
Jacksonville State
San Diego
Wofford
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston State

Win and you’re likely in(14--notice the catch here 13+14>24):
NAU
Lehigh
Montana
Kennesaw
Monmouth
New Hampshire
Delaware
South Dakota
Western Illinois
Illinois State
UNI
Western Carolina
Furman
Samford

Win and wait and see (9):
Nichols
McNeese
Colgate
Kennesaw
Monmouth
Austin Peay
Howard
Eastern Washington
Sacramento State

Lose and you’re still alive, pending on the field(9):
Furman
Western Illinois
South Dakota
New Hampshire
Delaware
Monmouth
Kennesaw State
Montana
Northern Arizona

Lose and you are almost certainly out(9):
Samford
Western Carolina
Eastern Washington
Sacramento State
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
Nichols
McNeese
Austin Peay






The ones in RED are in for sure
The ones in BLUE cannot be in due to APR sanctions
The ones in GREEN are locks due to AQ if they win

[Reign of Terrier]

This committee is going to have a fit when:

UCA goes 10-1
SHSU goes 10-1
McNeese goes 9-2
Nicholls goes 9-2

xlolx

I just don't see how you can keep out multiple teams who are 9-2. SOS may be so-so but McNeese, Nicholls, Kennesaw/Monmouth are going to be hard to keep out.

[POD Knows]

I just don't see how you can keep out multiple teams who are 9-2. SOS may be so-so but McNeese, Nicholls, Kennesaw/Monmouth are going to be hard to keep out.I hope these teams get in, I really do, I have no loyalty to the MVFC, I hope as many of these teams as possible get into the playoffs, not kidding, water it the **** the down, I need a trip to Frisco.

[TheKingpin28]

I just don't see how you can keep out multiple teams who are 9-2. SOS may be so-so but McNeese, Nicholls, Kennesaw/Monmouth are going to be hard to keep out.

Not really. There is a reason why SOS and quality wins exist for a reason. Ask the following:

-2016: Dayton (9-2)
-2015: BCU (9-2) San Diego (9-2) Jacksonville (9-2) [Ineligible though]
-2014: NCAT (9-3) BCU (9-3) Jacksonville (9-2)
-2013: Charleston Southern (10-3) Mercer (10-2)
-2012: Albany (9-2) EKU (8-3) UTM (8-3) Lehigh (10-1) Butler (8-3) Drake (8-3) San Diego (8-3)
-2011: UND (8-3) BCU (8-3) Duquesne (9-2) San Diego (9-2) Drake (9-2) Georgetown (8-3)

Should I keep going?

[cx500d]

A short-hand guide to clinching a playoff berth next week:


Locks (13):
Southern Utah
Weber
JMU
Elon
Stony Brook
NDSU
SDSU
CCSU
Jacksonville State
San Diego
Wofford
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston State

Win and you’re likely in(14--notice the catch here 13+14>24):
NAU
Lehigh
Montana
Kennesaw
Monmouth
New Hampshire
Delaware
South Dakota
Western Illinois
Illinois State
UNI
Western Carolina
Furman
Samford

Win and wait and see (9):
Nichols
McNeese
Colgate
Kennesaw
Monmouth
Austin Peay
Howard
Eastern Washington
Sacramento State

Lose and you’re still alive, pending on the field(9):
Furman
Western Illinois
South Dakota
New Hampshire
Delaware
Monmouth
Kennesaw State
Montana
Northern Arizona

Lose and you are almost certainly out(9):
Samford
Western Carolina
Eastern Washington
Sacramento State
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
Nichols
McNeese
Austin Peay





Isn't WCU's last game against FBS University of North Carolina? Will a loss to them affect their FCS chances, or will a quality loss help them?

[Reign of Terrier]

The ones in RED are in for sure
The ones in BLUE cannot be in due to APR sanctions
The ones in GREEN are locks due to AQ if they win

I listed them as "likely in" because I couldn't guarantee some if there were a bunch of 8-3 teams. For instance, I think Furman is a lock at 8-3. Montana is likely a lock as well, but what if there are 12 teams trying to fill 10 spots? On the face of it you could say any of these teams are locks and should be in but then you start making comparisons and it's all relative (FWIW I'd bet $100 8-3 Furman is in, not as confident with Montana)

[walliver]

You have Kennesaw and Monmouth both listed in both "win and you're likely in" and "win and wait see"

[Reign of Terrier]

Not really. There is a reason why SOS and quality wins exist for a reason. Ask the following:

-2016: Dayton (9-2)
-2015: BCU (9-2) San Diego (9-2) Jacksonville (9-2) [Ineligible though]
-2014: NCAT (9-3) BCU (9-3) Jacksonville (9-2)
-2013: Charleston Southern (10-3) Mercer (10-2)
-2012: Albany (9-2) EKU (8-3) UTM (8-3) Lehigh (10-1) Butler (8-3) Drake (8-3) San Diego (8-3)
-2011: UND (8-3) BCU (8-3) Duquesne (9-2) San Diego (9-2) Drake (9-2) Georgetown (8-3)

Should I keep going?

How many of those teams were in a conference without full FCS scholarship allotments or in the MEAC? Eyeballing it, the vast majority of them.

The Southland conference, on the other hand, usually gets a team in if they win 8 or 9 games. There's not precedent for leaving them out with that record.

- - - Updated - - -


You have Kennesaw and Monmouth both listed in both "win and you're likely in" and "win and wait see"
fixed

[Reign of Terrier]

Isn't WCU's last game against FBS University of North Carolina? Will a loss to them affect their FCS chances, or will a quality loss help them?

I don't know...I'd say right now they're out unless they win. the loss to Mercer this week is bad, especially given the loss to Furman two weeks ago. They'd have lost 3 of their last 4 and I don't see them overcoming that when there's so many quality teams with as many D1/quality wins or more this year.

But I think a win against UNC would be quality enough to get them in.

[TheKingpin28]

I listed them as "likely in" because I couldn't guarantee some if there were a bunch of 8-3 teams. For instance, I think Furman is a lock at 8-3. Montana is likely a lock as well, but what if there are 12 teams trying to fill 10 spots? On the face of it you could say any of these teams are locks and should be in but then you start making comparisons and it's all relative (FWIW I'd bet $100 8-3 Furman is in, not as confident with Montana)

Montana with what they will draw is a lock. Same with New Hampshire. These teams sell out their stadiums, and no amount of the committee saying this does not affect their decision will let me believe that. As a non-profit, they want to spend as little money as possible and make as much as possible.

If the following teams are at 7 D1 wins in the current 24 team format, they will be locks due to crowd attendance and travelling fan base: Montana, NDSU, UNH, JMU, Delaware, SHSU, EWU, and JSU

[Reign of Terrier]

Montana with what they will draw is a lock. Same with New Hampshire. These teams sell out their stadiums, and no amount of the committee saying this does not affect their decision will let me believe that. As a non-profit, they want to spend as little money as possible and make as much as possible.

If the following teams are at 7 D1 wins in the current 24 team format, they will be locks due to crowd attendance and travelling fan base: Montana, NDSU, UNH, JMU, Delaware, SHSU, EWU, and JSU

Fair enough. I'm just trying to be as conservative as possible when it comes to making these projections. The field is so wide this year.

[TheKingpin28]

How many of those teams were in a conference without full FCS scholarship allotments or in the MEAC? Eyeballing it, the vast majority of them.

The Southland conference, on the other hand, usually gets a team in if they win 8 or 9 games. There's not precedent for leaving them out with that record.

- - - Updated - - -


fixed

The Southland is a 2nd tier conference as of right now.

MVFC, CAA, and SoCon are Tier 1
Southland, Big Sky, and OVC are Tier 2
Big South, NEC, Patriot, and Ivy are Tier 3
Pioneer is Tier 4
MEAC and SWAC is something else

[Reign of Terrier]

The Southland is a 2nd tier conference as of right now.

MVFC, CAA, and SoCon are Tier 1
Southland, Big Sky, and OVC are Tier 2
Big South, NEC, Patriot, and Ivy are Tier 3
Pioneer is Tier 4
MEAC and SWAC is something else

I'm not really sure. The CAA, Big Sky and Southland benefit by having so many teams and having a good bit of above average teams to where many of them can have a decent record without beating anyone. The Socon beats each other up (unlike the CAA and MVFC, if you assume we're top tier as you do, we play everyone in the conference and it takes a toll in terms of ranking).

The Southland has a history of success in the playoffs and I would put the OVC closer to tier 3 (taking out Jacksonville State of course).

[cx500d]

The Southland is a 2nd tier conference as of right now.

MVFC, CAA, and SoCon are Tier 1
Southland, Big Sky, and JSU are Tier 2
Big South, NEC, Patriot are Tier 3
Pioneer is Tier 4
MEAC and SWAC and Ivy is something else


FYP

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

The Southland is a 2nd tier conference as of right now.

MVFC, CAA, and SoCon are Tier 1
Southland, Big Sky, and OVC are Tier 2
Big South, NEC, Patriot, and Ivy are Tier 3
Pioneer is Tier 4
MEAC and SWAC is something else

The PL is an enigma. Historically it's better than the Big South and NEC by a decent amount imo. The last two years has been a struggle however. Barring a major upset in #153 the PL auto-bid will enter the playoffs with a 5-6 record for the 2nd time in 5 seasons.

[TheKingpin28]

I'm not really sure. The CAA, Big Sky and Southland benefit by having so many teams and having a good bit of above average teams to where many of them can have a decent record without beating anyone. The Socon beats each other up (unlike the CAA and MVFC, if you assume we're top tier as you do, we play everyone in the conference and it takes a toll in terms of ranking).

The Southland has a history of success in the playoffs and I would put the OVC closer to tier 3 (taking out Jacksonville State of course).

The reason why I gave them tier 2 is that they have plenty of cellar-dwellers, whereas the CAA, MVFC, and SoCon only have 1-2 each season; whereas BS has at least 2-3, the Southland has at least 2-3, and the OVC has at least 2-3 every year. When conference records indicate they beat each other, that leads to parity which also leads to proof that the conference is strong. Notice how the Valley has had 1 undefeated season in conference play for a long time? The CAA has had 2 seasons. Same with the SoCon. Now look at the other conferences. The Big Sky has had 4, the Southland has had 4, and the OVC has had 5 seasons since 2010. This is why I would say what I say. One could argue the OVC is a tier 3 conference, but I would say that EIU and EKU have helped them out this decade.


FYP

Kek

[Reign of Terrier]

If I were a betting man, this is my best guess of what the playoffs will look like in terms of conference representation:
Big Sky:4
CAA: 5
MVFC: 5
Southland: 4 (I know, hot take)
NEC: 1
Patriot: 1
Socon: 2
Big South: 1
Pioneer: 1

Notable Teams left out: Western Carolina, loser of Kennesaw/Monmouth, loser of Samford/Furman. If Northern Arizona loses this week they may be left out, but they have a strong SOS.

Some secondary notes:

It may sound contrarian but I think Nichols gets in before Western Carolina, because Western has a weak schedule, beating only Samford (and if they lose to Furman, they're out IMO). McNeese would get in before Samford/Western Carolina IMO if Furman wins. I think Kennesaw, if they don't win the Big South AQ, they have a better chance at the at large than Monmouth.

Whether or not the Big sky gets three or four is pretty much dependent on how NAU and Montana play this week. Both win and it's 4 for the Big Sky, no question

[Thumper 76]

I'm not really sure. The CAA, Big Sky and Southland benefit by having so many teams and having a good bit of above average teams to where many of them can have a decent record without beating anyone. The Socon beats each other up (unlike the CAA and MVFC, if you assume we're top tier as you do, we play everyone in the conference and it takes a toll in terms of ranking).

The Southland has a history of success in the playoffs and I would put the OVC closer to tier 3 (taking out Jacksonville State of course).

MVFC teams miss playing one team in conference and it doesn’t help soften the table very often. SDSU missed out on playing the Sycamores, so they definitely got a tougher schedule due to it. That knife cuts both ways.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[mvemjsunpx]

Montana with what they will draw is a lock. Same with New Hampshire. These teams sell out their stadiums, and no amount of the committee saying this does not affect their decision will let me believe that. As a non-profit, they want to spend as little money as possible and make as much as possible.

Except the committee is a bunch of school ADs, not the NCAA. They don't have any concrete incentive since they aren't getting the money anyway (unless their team is in the field, but they can't vote when their own team is being considered). Now, I think Montana is a lock at 8-3 (same for any Big Sky team), but it won't be because of their home draw.

[UNHWildcat18]

I really don't see how Elon is a lock at 8-3 if UNH and UD get to 8-3.

[Ud1Hens]

I really don't see how Elon is a lock at 8-3 if UNH and UD get to 8-3.

I'm with you. An 8-3 Elon team would have zero signature wins, all 8 wins by a TD or less, average margin of victory is less than 4 points, and they'd be losers of 2 straight. Their only positive is no bad losses (FBS loss, at UNH, vs #1 JMU)

Compare that resume to an 8-3 Delaware team. They have a win on the road vs a top 10 Stony Brook. Their 3 losses would be FBS Va Tech, JMU, 1 point loss at Towson (bad loss).

Then an you have UNH. Their 8-3 would have a head to head win vs a bubble team it's competing with for a bid (Elon). In addition to an FBS loss, they have a loss to #1 JMU, but a brutal 25 point loss to Holy Cross.

It may be a homer take but UD has the best win (at Stony Brook). UNH has the worst loss (25 points to Holy Cross). Elon is just benefiting from squeaking by every week. Only one time has an 8-3 CAA team been left out and that's Richmond years ago.

[UNHWildcat18]

I'm with you. An 8-3 Elon team would have zero signature wins, all 8 wins by a TD or less, average margin of victory is less than 4 points, and they'd be losers of 2 straight. Their only positive is no bad losses (FBS loss, at UNH, vs #1 JMU)

Compare that resume to an 8-3 Delaware team. They have a win on the road vs a top 10 Stony Brook. Their 3 losses would be FBS Va Tech, JMU, 1 point loss at Towson (bad loss).

Then an you have UNH. Their 8-3 would have a head to head win vs a bubble team it's competing with for a bid (Elon). In addition to an FBS loss, they have a loss to #1 JMU, but a brutal 25 point loss to Holy Cross.

It may be a homer take but UD has the best win (at Stony Brook). UNH has the worst loss (25 points to Holy Cross). Elon is just benefiting from squeaking by every week. Only one time has an 8-3 CAA team been left out and that's Richmond years ago.

We beat FBS Georgia Southern, **** the bed 2nd half vs stony brook is the other loss****

[PaladinFan]

I'm with you. An 8-3 Elon team would have zero signature wins, all 8 wins by a TD or less, average margin of victory is less than 4 points, and they'd be losers of 2 straight. Their only positive is no bad losses (FBS loss, at UNH, vs #1 JMU)

Compare that resume to an 8-3 Delaware team. They have a win on the road vs a top 10 Stony Brook. Their 3 losses would be FBS Va Tech, JMU, 1 point loss at Towson (bad loss).

Then an you have UNH. Their 8-3 would have a head to head win vs a bubble team it's competing with for a bid (Elon). In addition to an FBS loss, they have a loss to #1 JMU, but a brutal 25 point loss to Holy Cross.

It may be a homer take but UD has the best win (at Stony Brook). UNH has the worst loss (25 points to Holy Cross). Elon is just benefiting from squeaking by every week. Only one time has an 8-3 CAA team been left out and that's Richmond years ago.

Elon and Furman played in week 2, which was an afterthought to most FCS fans. If they played this week it’d probably be national game of the week.

[Ud1Hens]

We beat FBS Georgia Southern, **** the bed 2nd half vs stony brook is the other loss****

My bad Cat...then I'm more with you. UNH and UD need Elon to lose to JMU and they both have a better case than Elon.

[Professor Chaos]

If I were a betting man, this is my best guess of what the playoffs will look like in terms of conference representation:
Big Sky:4
CAA: 5
MVFC: 5
Southland: 4 (I know, hot take)
NEC: 1
Patriot: 1
Socon: 2
Big South: 1
Pioneer: 1

You're missing the OVC (a.k.a. Jacksonville St).

[Professor Chaos]

How about the bubble Armageddon scenario:

ISUr beats NDSU
USD beats SDSU
Delaware beats Nova
UNH beats Albany
Nicholls beats SELA
McNeese beats Lamar (the team - not a person)
WCU beats UNC
Montana beats Montana St
NAU beats SUU

Only 6 of those 9 winners could get in so who would be snubbed? That would be a hella-tough job for the selection committee. I'd say every winner in the above list needs to be rooting for the others to lose.

[kalm]

I'm with you. An 8-3 Elon team would have zero signature wins, all 8 wins by a TD or less, average margin of victory is less than 4 points, and they'd be losers of 2 straight. Their only positive is no bad losses (FBS loss, at UNH, vs #1 JMU)

Compare that resume to an 8-3 Delaware team. They have a win on the road vs a top 10 Stony Brook. Their 3 losses would be FBS Va Tech, JMU, 1 point loss at Towson (bad loss).

Then an you have UNH. Their 8-3 would have a head to head win vs a bubble team it's competing with for a bid (Elon). In addition to an FBS loss, they have a loss to #1 JMU, but a brutal 25 point loss to Holy Cross.

It may be a homer take but UD has the best win (at Stony Brook). UNH has the worst loss (25 points to Holy Cross). Elon is just benefiting from squeaking by every week. Only one time has an 8-3 CAA team been left out and that's Richmond years ago.

Elon would have no bad losses a couple of decent wins and the same number of FCS losses as Monmouth, Nichols, and McNeese. They'd be in over any 7-4 with maybe the exception of UNI. Any CAA 8-3 is in.

[TheKingpin28]

Except the committee is a bunch of school ADs, not the NCAA. They don't have any concrete incentive since they aren't getting the money anyway (unless their team is in the field, but they can't vote when their own team is being considered). Now, I think Montana is a lock at 8-3 (same for any Big Sky team), but it won't be because of their home draw.

They can say what they want, they being the ADs, but a 7-4 Montana and 7-4 UNH will not get left at home. That is just me.

[kalm]

The Southland is a 2nd tier conference as of right now.

MVFC, CAA, and SoCon are Tier 1
Southland, Big Sky, and OVC are Tier 2
Big South, NEC, Patriot, and Ivy are Tier 3
Pioneer is Tier 4
MEAC and SWAC is something else

1a MVFC
1b BSC, CAA, Socon
2 SLC, OVC
3. Big South
4. Patriot
5. NEC
6. Pioneer
7. Ivy, MEAC, SWAC

[kalm]

They can say what they want, they being the ADs, but a 7-4 Montana and 7-4 UNH will not get left at home. That is just me.

Then neither should SAC with a clearly better SOS and quality win.

[TheKingpin28]

Then neither should SAC with a clearly better SOS and quality win.

Will they sell more than 10,000 tickets without even trying? How about 20,000 tickets? UNH will sell out and with CCSU winning the AQ, they will get sent there due to a bus trip.

UNH: Elon, FBS (joke of a FBS though)
--Sagarin: 156
--Massey: 27
UoM: NAU
--Sagarin: 146
--Massey: 18
Sac: SUU
--Sagarin: 155
--Massey: 22

If Sac St beats UC-Davis, they should be in, but with UNH, that FBS win will just dangle out there even if they are one of the worst in the FBS, but the ADs will look at UNH or Sac St. What will draw more viewers and which one is more popular? I know it sucks, but if it comes down to both of them, UNH will probably get the bump, even if they don't deserve it.

[katss07]

Will Sacramento REALLY get in? I don’t think so, but the deserve it! Would love to see them in.

All this talk about 4 teams getting in from the SLC, I can really see only 3 getting in. SHSU, UCA and Nicholls. Nicholls has a signature win against McNeese where they hit the last second field goal, which gave them the advantage over the Cowboys. I think the committee will take that win and the close loss at FBS Texas A&M and put them in. The will likely be sent to SHSU or UCA second round. McNeese has a tough road ahead, becuase they don’t really have a signature win. Sure, SELA was a quality win, but not really a big one.

I can see Nicholls getting in and McNeese getting in. I wouldn’t be surprised if both of them were in but I don’t count on it. Ether way, this will be a nervous week for Cowboy fans.

[cx500d]

Will Sacramento REALLY get in? I don’t think so, but the deserve it! Would love to see them in.

All this talk about 4 teams getting in from the SLC, I can really see only 3 getting in. SHSU, UCA and Nicholls. Nicholls has a signature win against McNeese where they hit the last second field goal, which gave them the advantage over the Cowboys. I think the committee will take that win and the close loss at FBS Texas A&M and put them in. The will likely be sent to SHSU or UCA second round. McNeese has a tough road ahead, becuase they don’t really have a signature win. Sure, SELA was a quality win, but not really a big one.

I can see Nicholls getting in and McNeese getting in. I wouldn’t be surprised if both of them were in but I don’t count on it. Ether way, this will be a nervous week for Cowboy fans.

ACU should also get in, because I heard they were always dangerous.

[F'N Hawks]

Elon would have no bad losses a couple of decent wins and the same number of FCS losses as Monmouth, Nichols, and McNeese. They'd be in over any 7-4 with maybe the exception of UNI. Any CAA 8-3 is in.

"Quality losses". Not this again.

[katss07]

ACU should also get in, because I heard they were always dangerous.
Oh, my apologies. I forgot about the most dangerous team in the FCS. Give them a first round bye as well.

[kalm]

"Quality losses". Not this again.

When you drill it down further between teams with similar w/l, SoS, and quality wins, who you lose to is another data point. It's been used all season in ranking SUU based on a "bad" loss to Sac which ends up not being that bad.

[TheKingpin28]

ACU should also get in, because I heard they were always dangerous.

Why even play the games. Just do what Dennis Green does:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GERta2w0xaE/VBdh9d2IR4I/AAAAAAAAZyY/vK9ADFZrD6w/s1600/if%2Byou%2Bwant%2Bto.jpg

[clenz]

This year a 7-4 team will not get left home. Period. I won’t guess with full confidence for any other 7-4. They’ll be 6-2 in MVFC. Thanks to beating SDSU by 3 TD, in Brookings, UNI will finish no worse than the official second place finisher in the MVFC.

The second place MVFC team isn’t getting left out at 7 wins.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JSUSoutherner]

Oh, my apologies. I forgot about the most dangerous team in the FCS. Give them a first round bye as well.
Give them a bye from the entire playoffs. Give them their own separate championship since no one else is as dangerous as they are.


Why even play the games. Just do what Dennis Green does:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GERta2w0xaE/VBdh9d2IR4I/AAAAAAAAZyY/vK9ADFZrD6w/s1600/if%2Byou%2Bwant%2Bto.jpg

ACU let 'em off the hook!

[gofurman]

I'm with you. An 8-3 Elon team would have zero signature wins, all 8 wins by a TD or less, average margin of victory is less than 4 points, and they'd be losers of 2 straight. Their only positive is no bad losses (FBS loss, at UNH, vs #1 JMU)

Compare that resume to an 8-3 Delaware team. They have a win on the road vs a top 10 Stony Brook. Their 3 losses would be FBS Va Tech, JMU, 1 point loss at Towson (bad loss).

Then an you have UNH. Their 8-3 would have a head to head win vs a bubble team it's competing with for a bid (Elon). In addition to an FBS loss, they have a loss to #1 JMU, but a brutal 25 point loss to Holy Cross.

It may be a homer take but UD has the best win (at Stony Brook). UNH has the worst loss (25 points to Holy Cross). Elon is just benefiting from squeaking by every week. Only one time has an 8-3 CAA team been left out and that's Richmond years ago.

Elon beat Furman who is top 20 STATS poll this week and number already nbr15 AGS this past week. How is that not a good Elon Win? Or did you mean CAA only?

[gofurman]

1a MVFC
1b BSC, CAA, Socon
2 SLC, OVC
3. Big South
4. Patriot
5. NEC
6. Pioneer
7. Ivy, MEAC, SWAC

Right. If SoCo is topThree conference. Most agree they are- then Furman should be in already after dismantling Citadel 56-20 this weekend. Supposed seed Wofford beat Citadel 20-16. Furman was up 42 or 49-0 before pulling starters. We should be in even if we lose at Samford. Unless they crush us

Thoughts ?

[WestCoastAggie]

A short-hand guide to clinching a playoff berth next week:


Locks (13):
Southern Utah
Weber
JMU
Elon
Stony Brook
NDSU
SDSU
CCSU
Jacksonville State
San Diego
Wofford
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston State
Win and you’re likely in(14--notice the catch here 13+14>24):
NAU
Lehigh
Montana
Kennesaw
Monmouth
New Hampshire
Delaware
South Dakota
Western Illinois
Illinois State
UNI
Western Carolina
Furman
Samford

Win and wait and see (9):
Nichols
McNeese
Colgate
Austin Peay
Eastern Washington
Sacramento State

Lose and you’re still alive, pending on the field(9):
Furman
Western Illinois
South Dakota
New Hampshire
Delaware
Monmouth
Kennesaw State
Montana
Northern Arizona

Lose and you are almost certainly out(9):
Samford
Western Carolina
Eastern Washington
Sacramento State
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
Nichols
McNeese
Austin Peay






You got to add Howard to one of these lists.

[JSUSoutherner]

You got to add Howard to one of these lists.
Didn't we just get done saying they were ineligible in the other thread?


Edit: Yeah they're eligible but I still don't think they should go.

[gofurman]

You got to add Howard to one of these lists.

Someone said Howard is on probation or something. Ineligible

[WestCoastAggie]

Someone said Howard is on probation or something. Ineligible

Howard football is eligible for post-season play. Their Swimming and Diving teams aren't eligible.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2017/05/10/17-d-i-teams-banned-from-postseason-apr-scores/101506286/

[Professor Chaos]

Howard football is eligible for post-season play. Their Swimming and Diving teams aren't eligible.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2017/05/10/17-d-i-teams-banned-from-postseason-apr-scores/101506286/
The bubble is too strong this year for an 8-3 MEAC team with one win over a team with a winning record (and that's against BCU who's 6-4) and a win over a bad FBS team (still a quality win but more like a fringe top 25 win over an FCS team IMO). It's very likely there's at least one 9-2 team from the Big South or Southland that's left out and those are both stronger conferences than the MEAC. I wouldn't doubt if their name comes up in the selection committee discussions but I think they'll be dismissed pretty quickly when they start being compared to the rest of the teams on the bubble.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

The bubble is too strong this year for an 8-3 MEAC team with one win over a team with a winning record (and that's against BCU who's 6-4) and a win over a bad FBS team (still a quality win but more like a fringe top 25 win over an FCS team IMO). It's very likely there's at least one 9-2 team from the Big South or Southland that's left out and those are both stronger conferences than the MEAC. I wouldn't doubt if their name comes up in the selection committee discussions but I think they'll be dismissed pretty quickly when they start being compared to the rest of the teams on the bubble.


This here 100%

A 8-3 Howard team over a 9-2 or 8-3 team from a stronger conference....no way!

[katss07]

Furman-Samford is an elimination game. Sorry, but I feel like if Furman loses they don’t get in. 7-4 isn’t good enough this year to get an at large from the Socon. The bubble is too strong.

[Reign of Terrier]

Right. If SoCo is topThree conference. Most agree they are- then Furman should be in already after dismantling Citadel 56-20 this weekend. Supposed seed Wofford beat Citadel 20-16. Furman was up 42 or 49-0 before pulling starters. We should be in even if we lose at Samford. Unless they crush us

Thoughts ?

"supposed seed"

lol this is why no one likes you guys...we've earned our seed.

[WestCoastAggie]

The bubble is too strong this year for an 8-3 MEAC team with one win over a team with a winning record (and that's against BCU who's 6-4) and a win over a bad FBS team (still a quality win but more like a fringe top 25 win over an FCS team IMO). It's very likely there's at least one 9-2 team from the Big South or Southland that's left out and those are both stronger conferences than the MEAC. I wouldn't doubt if their name comes up in the selection committee discussions but I think they'll be dismissed pretty quickly when they start being compared to the rest of the teams on the bubble.

That Richmond loss looks bad but they had many injuries up and down their offensive and defensive lines, which occurred during their Kent State and UNLV games. They are healthier now. They have to beat Hampton, however.

- - - Updated - - -


This here 100%

A 8-3 Howard team over a 9-2 or 8-3 team from a stronger conference....no way!

There's a precedence for the MEAC to steal bids from teams in stronger conferences.

[TheKingpin28]

Didn't we just get done saying they were ineligible in the other thread?

Yeah I edited it since I knew they had APR issues, but I found out it was for Swimming and Diving.

[JSUSoutherner]

Yeah I edited it since I knew they had APR issues, but I found out it was for Swimming and Diving.
I edited my post.

[Professor Chaos]

There's a precedence for the MEAC to steal bids from teams in stronger conferences.
True but that was when they had representation on the playoff selection committee which they no longer have.

[katss07]

Any chance that Austin Peay is still in the conversation? 7-4, should end up 8-4.

[TheKingpin28]

"supposed seed"

lol this is why no one likes you guys...we've earned our seed.

Have ya?

VMI and Presbyterian, both god awful, are the only teams you have beaten by more than 1 score.

-------------Furman: 24-23
-----------@ Mercer: 28-27
Gardner Webb (lol): 27-24
-----@ Presbyterian: 31-7
----------------WCU: 35-28 OT
------@ The Citadel: 20-16
------------Samford: 21-24
-------@ ETSU (lol): 31-24
---------Chatty (lol): 24-21 OTx2
--------------@ VMI: 45-14

Where in this schedule have you earned "your seed"? You are not in my Top 8 at all.

[TheKingpin28]

Give them a bye from the entire playoffs. Give them their own separate championship since no one else is as dangerous as they are.



ACU let 'em off the hook!

Now you're getting it! xdrunkyx

[JSUSoutherner]

Any chance that Austin Peay is still in the conversation? 7-4, should end up 8-4.
I think if they beat EIU this weekend and end 8-1 in FCS play then they will have a solid argument for a spot. A couple bubbles bursting this weekend will help their case but I don't think they are a lock even with a win.

[WestCoastAggie]

True but that was when they had representation on the playoff selection committee which they no longer have.

We didn't have representation last year when A&T limped into the post-season. I thought A&T was going to be Lehigh'd honestly.

Howard has one really bad loss to a potentially 6-5 Richmond team, but it could be realistically cancelled out by their performances against Kent State and UNLV.

[Reign of Terrier]

You got to add Howard to one of these lists.

I had them under "win and wait and see" but someone said something about them being ineligible.

I'd put them back but I'm lazy and have edited the post like 4x.

For me, it's hard to gauge how much of the committees decisions are based upon the raw numbers of SOS and how much of it is politics. That's quite literally the only reason I think Southland will get 4 and Howard has a shot.

It's very easy to value 8-3 teams from conferences that have a history of doing well in the playoffs (Southern, Big Sky, Southland, MVFC, CAA)

and it's really really hard to turn down a 9-D1-win team in a conference that has full scholarship allotments (Big South, OVC). Charleston southern was cited as an example of a team that got turned down with 10 wins, but that year they played 13 regular season games (it was a 12 game year + but they scheduled 13 for some reason) and so their total wins were inflated. They were also third in the Big South, and the Big South probably isn't going to get more than 2 on a good year.

UNI is the exception because they'll finish second in the MVFC so I don't see how you keep them out, but I think every 7-4 team outside of them and *maybe* Furman if they finish 7-4 should be nervous

[katss07]

I think if they beat EIU this weekend and end 8-1 in FCS play then they will have a solid argument for a spot. A couple bubbles bursting this weekend will help their case but I don't think they are a lock even with a win.

Yeah. Hope this team gets in. Great story.

[kalm]

Right. If SoCo is topThree conference. Most agree they are- then Furman should be in already after dismantling Citadel 56-20 this weekend. Supposed seed Wofford beat Citadel 20-16. Furman was up 42 or 49-0 before pulling starters. We should be in even if we lose at Samford. Unless they crush us

Thoughts ?

With the exception of UNI, no 7-4 is safe. Wins are comparable between 7-4 Furman, NAU, Montana, UNH, Delaware and EWU (I'm sure I'm leaving a few out). There's some variance between SOS. A 7-4 USD would be in the mix too but closing with 3 losses would hurt.

An upset of NDSU would more than likely get ISUr in.

Much depends on how the committee treats the 9-2 SLC's and Big South runner up.

[Reign of Terrier]

Have ya?

VMI and Presbyterian, both god awful, are the only teams you have beaten by more than 1 score.

-------------Furman: 24-23
-----------@ Mercer: 28-27
Gardner Webb (lol): 27-24
-----@ Presbyterian: 31-7
----------------WCU: 35-28 OT
------@ The Citadel: 20-16
------------Samford: 21-24
-------@ ETSU (lol): 31-24
---------Chatty (lol): 24-21 OTx2
--------------@ VMI: 45-14

Where in this schedule have you earned "your seed"? You are not in my Top 8 at all.

Name 8 teams with 9 D1-wins + a conference title. If the Socon is a top-tier conference as y'all seem to think, it shouldn't matter.

A dub is a dub

[TheKingpin28]

I think if they beat EIU this weekend and end 8-1 in FCS play then they will have a solid argument for a spot. A couple bubbles bursting this weekend will help their case but I don't think they are a lock even with a win.

3 FBS losses does not look good at all. If they would substitute one of those games for an FCS team and won, then I think they would get in instead.

[TheKingpin28]

Name 8 teams with 9 D1-wins + a conference title. If the Socon is a top-tier conference as y'all seem to think, it shouldn't matter.

A dub is a dub

I'll take

JMU
NDSU
UCA
SDSU
JSU
SHSU (don't like it one bit)
SUU
WIU

for my top 8 before Wofford. You have no dominating "statement" wins. Each of these teams has one (maybe you could argue you should have SHSUs spot and I'd let you have it) if not more than 1 statement win, whereas Wofford sneaks on by and gets a Dubya. Put them in the Valley or CAA and I don't think they finish 7-4 with their body of work/type of football. We will see what happens, but remember what happened to El Cid in 2016, the SoCon in 2015, etc...? The fact of the matter is Wofford needs a "statement" win against equal competition in the playoffs otherwise they are the 2016 version of El Cid/UND.

[JSUSoutherner]

3 FBS losses does not look good at all. If they would substitute one of those games for an FCS team and won, then I think they would get in instead.
To be fair to Peay: the goal of their schedule this year wasn't to appeal to the committee. They needed those FBS games to help pay for their recent (very nice) facility upgrades. Coach Healy even admitted Morehead State game was scheduled for the sole purpose of breaking the Govs epic losing streak so they could finally start to build themselves up.

I know that doesn't matter to the committee, and it shouldn't, but APSU scheduled well to fit their needs as a program this season. I don't think they were expecting to contend for a playoff spot.

[WestCoastAggie]

I had them under "win and wait and see" but someone said something about them being ineligible.

I'd put them back but I'm lazy and have edited the post like 4x.

For me, it's hard to gauge how much of the committees decisions are based upon the raw numbers of SOS and how much of it is politics. That's quite literally the only reason I think Southland will get 4 and Howard has a shot.

It's very easy to value 8-3 teams from conferences that have a history of doing well in the playoffs (Southern, Big Sky, Southland, MVFC, CAA)

and it's really really hard to turn down a 9-D1-win team in a conference that has full scholarship allotments (Big South, OVC). Charleston southern was cited as an example of a team that got turned down with 10 wins, but that year they played 13 regular season games (it was a 12 game year + but they scheduled 13 for some reason) and so their total wins were inflated. They were also third in the Big South, and the Big South probably isn't going to get more than 2 on a good year.

UNI is the exception because they'll finish second in the MVFC so I don't see how you keep them out, but I think every 7-4 team outside of them and *maybe* Furman if they finish 7-4 should be nervous

Regionalization will also play a role into the final 4 teams.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'll take

JMU
NDSU
UCA
SDSU
JSU
SHSU (don't like it one bit)
SUU
WIU

for my top 8 before Wofford. You have no dominating "statement" wins. Each of these teams has one (maybe you could argue you should have SHSUs spot and I'd let you have it) if not more than 1 statement win, whereas Wofford sneaks on by and gets a Dubya. Put them in the Valley or CAA and I don't think they finish 7-4 with their body of work/type of football. We will see what happens, but remember what happened to El Cid in 2016, the SoCon in 2015, etc...? The fact of the matter is Wofford needs a "statement" win against equal competition in the playoffs otherwise they are the 2016 version of El Cid/UND.

Do you remember who beat the Citadel?

Oddly enough when regionalization makes the MVFC eat its young, it's about how the process sucks but the MVFC is still good, but when the socon does it...well...

The Socon in 2017 is probably as good as it's ever been...and I've been watching it for about 10 years when App State went on their runs and Wofford had a Furman-like offense.

It's also worth mentioning that half the teams you listed do not have a conference title, so you prove my point.

The arguments MVFC folks (but really just NDSU) level against other teams are transparently bad and incorporate a double standard.

I'll admit Wofford has won games by too close of a margin for my comfort, but really I think we only played bad in two of them (Gardner Webb and ETSU) but we still never lost the lead in those games.

[TheKingpin28]

To be fair to Peay: the goal of their schedule this year wasn't to appeal to the committee. They needed those FBS games to help pay for their recent (very nice) facility upgrades. Coach Healy even admitted Morehead State game was scheduled for the sole purpose of breaking the Govs epic losing streak so they could finally start to build themselves up.

I know that doesn't matter to the committee, and it shouldn't, but APSU scheduled well to fit their needs as a program this season. I don't think they were expecting to contend for a playoff spot.

I understand that funds need to be acquired and that is why schools play FCS football to help offset costs, but that said, 3 FBS losses is still 3 FBS losses and the committee I think views that as "we did not plan to make the playoffs, so we wanted to collect a paycheck, but now that we are in a solid position, please take a look at us".

[JSUSoutherner]

I understand that funds need to be acquired and that is why schools play FCS football to help offset costs, but that said, 3 FBS losses is still 3 FBS losses and the committee I think views that as "we did not plan to make the playoffs, so we wanted to collect a paycheck, but now that we are in a solid position, please take a look at us".

I think their backup plan was to knock us off and take the OVC. We all know how that worked out for them.

#31InARowAndCounting

[WestCoastAggie]

Wofford will be seeded, along with SUU. And to be honest, Weber State has a better shot at a seed than WIU right now.

The MVFC seed locks are NDSU and SDSU. USD and WIU are toss ups.

[Winterborn]

I hope these teams get in, I really do, I have no loyalty to the MVFC, I hope as many of these teams as possible get into the playoffs, not kidding, water it the **** the down, I need a trip to Frisco.

A big 10-4 on this! And send SDSU to the other side of the bracket. It would be nice to have some new flavors come to the Fargodome (if there is one that represent Hawaiian, they can get fed to SDSU :D ).

[TheKingpin28]

Do you remember who beat the Citadel?

Oddly enough when regionalization makes the MVFC eat its young, it's about how the process sucks but the MVFC is still good, but when the socon does it...well...

The Socon in 2017 is probably as good as it's ever been.

It's also worth mentioning that half the teams you listed do not have a conference title, so you prove my point.

Hard to fault 3 MVFC in the top 8 when everyone beats everyone. Last year is last year. Only time that works is when we are doing a pre-season poll and talking about, well last year. Your offense is anemic and your defense is mediocre. What more do you want?

Speaking of titles, these 3 are locks:

JMU
NDSU
UCA

SDSU can win one if NDSU loses and they beat USeD
SUU can win one if they beat NAU

As I said, if you want SHSU's spot, fine, but then you are being dropped to #8 and that is me being generous.

[Reign of Terrier]

and if south dakota loses this week they will be on the bubble, not a seed. They only have one good win IMO

[JSUSoutherner]

Hard to fault 3 MVFC in the top 8 when everyone beats everyone. Last year is last year. Only time that works is when we are doing a pre-season poll and talking about, well last year. Your offense is anemic and your defense is mediocre. What more do you want?

Speaking of titles, these 3 are locks:

JMU
NDSU
UCA

SDSU can win one if NDSU loses and they beat USeD
SUU can win one if they beat NAU

As I said, if you want SHSU's spot, fine, but then you are being dropped to #8 and that is me being generous.
We also have the conference title locked btw. xthumbsupx

Shocker, right?

[TheKingpin28]

We also have the conference title locked btw. xthumbsupx

Shocker, right?

You are your own conference. You are the Notre Dame of the FCS. xnodx xlolx

[Reign of Terrier]

Hard to fault 3 MVFC in the top 8 when everyone beats everyone. Last year is last year. Only time that works is when we are doing a pre-season poll and talking about, well last year. Your offense is anemic and your defense is mediocre. What more do you want?

Speaking of titles, these 3 are locks:

JMU
NDSU
UCA

SDSU can win one if NDSU loses and they beat USeD
SUU can win one if they beat NAU

As I said, if you want SHSU's spot, fine, but then you are being dropped to #8 and that is me being generous.
The MVFC isn't the only team where everyone beats everyone. The Socon has plenty of that as does any conference where a majority of the teams are decent and play each other. As for Wofford being mediocre, our offense scores 42% of the time and our defense is ranked 19th nationally in total defense (that'll probably go up once the stats update). we have third down defense problems and "put them away in the fourth quarter drives" on offense, but I'm not less proud of our body of work compared to previous years.

Basically, the reason why the MVFC will get so many in the round of 16 or 8 is by the mass of teams they have in the field and the structure of the playoffs (no rematches, etc). They're good, no doubt, but this whole perception that they are so much better than the other top tier conferences has a lot to do with people not understanding how computer averages work.

All it takes is one bad year and they're back down to earth

[Professor Chaos]

Wofford will be seeded, along with SUU. And to be honest, Weber State has a better shot at a seed than WIU right now.

The MVFC seed locks are NDSU and SDSU. USD and WIU are toss ups.
Agreed that SUU and Wofford should be seeded in front of WIU as of now but if NAU knocks off SUU next week I think WIU would sneak into that #8 seed by virtue of their win over NAU (who I think would be the Big Sky auto then), their domination of CCU, and their 5 MVFC wins including UNI and ISUr.

I definitely think WIU should be seeded ahead of Weber St or Stony Brook (if they all win next week) and unless Elon or USD pull upsets over JMU or SDSU that'll be the teams in contention for that 8 seed if SUU falls.

[katss07]

Stony Brook should get the 8 if SUU loses and Wofford should get the 7. I think SB has been impressive, only conference loss has been to a good Deleware team. If SUU loses, I would give the 8 to SB over WIU, even though I could see why many could give Western the edge. Just think Stony Brook has been more consistent. Plus the loss to USD looks worse every week.

[PantherRob82]

"supposed seed"

lol this is why no one likes you guys...we've earned our seed.

Weakest seed since Hampton in 2005.

- - - Updated - - -


Have ya?

VMI and Presbyterian, both god awful, are the only teams you have beaten by more than 1 score.

-------------Furman: 24-23
-----------@ Mercer: 28-27
Gardner Webb (lol): 27-24
-----@ Presbyterian: 31-7
----------------WCU: 35-28 OT
------@ The Citadel: 20-16
------------Samford: 21-24
-------@ ETSU (lol): 31-24
---------Chatty (lol): 24-21 OTx2
--------------@ VMI: 45-14

Where in this schedule have you earned "your seed"? You are not in my Top 8 at all.

same

[PantherRob82]

. They're good, no doubt, but this whole perception that they are so much better than the other top tier conferences has a lot to do with them playing and beating teams from the other top conferences in the OOC schedule.


Fixed.

[katss07]

[QUOTE=PantherRob82;2565722]Weakest seed since Hampton in 2005.

Wasn’t McNeese in 2013 pretty bad?

[caribbeanhen]

Wofford will be seeded, along with SUU. And to be honest, Weber State has a better shot at a seed than WIU right now.

The MVFC seed locks are NDSU and SDSU. USD and WIU are toss ups.

if you tossed up in the air South Dakota's ichances for a Seed it would look like a confetti parade with all the shredded paper

[kalm]

Fixed.

xnodx

[Reign of Terrier]

Weakest seed since Hampton in 2005.

- - - Updated - - -



same

Because a Southern Conference champion is comparable to a MEAC championxrolleyesx

If a MVFC team had Wofford's resume y'all would be swooning over how clutch they are

[TheKingpin28]

Because a Southern Conference champion is comparable to a MEAC championxrolleyesx

If a MVFC team had Wofford's resume y'all would be swooning over how clutch they are

Give NDSU, SDSU, and UNI, that schedule and they go undefeated and win by significant margins. WIU and USeD would come close.

[dungeonjoe]

Have ya?

VMI and Presbyterian, both god awful, are the only teams you have beaten by more than 1 score.

-------------Furman: 24-23
-----------@ Mercer: 28-27
Gardner Webb (lol): 27-24
-----@ Presbyterian: 31-7
----------------WCU: 35-28 OT
------@ The Citadel: 20-16
------------Samford: 21-24
-------@ ETSU (lol): 31-24
---------Chatty (lol): 24-21 OTx2
--------------@ VMI: 45-14

Where in this schedule have you earned "your seed"? You are not in my Top 8 at all.

It was earned by being the Southern Conference champions at 7-1.

[Reign of Terrier]

Give NDSU, SDSU, and UNI, that schedule and they go undefeated and win by significant margins. WIU and USeD would come close.

I think if you give NDSU any schedule and 90% of the time they'll go undefeated.

Meanwhile, the rest of your post is blind, unapologetic MVFC homerism.

And I don't mean that as a shot at SDSU or UNI, just that you have to be pretty dense to think the MVFC is that much stronger than other conferences.

Since the Socon has submitted an autobid for the FCS/1-AA playoffs in 1982, only 4 teams lost a first round game that wasn't against a fellow socon opponent. The Socon autobid hasn't lost a first round game against a non-Socon team since 1990.

The Citadel was the first last year, but they lost to...Wofford. I recognize that the only team who seems legitimate outside of the MVFC last year to NDSU/MVFC fans is JMU (only because they beat NDSU), but there's good reason to think that, even with Wofford's ugly wins this year they're a good football team worthy of a seed.

[semobison]

I think if you give NDSU any schedule and 90% of the time they'll go undefeated.

Meanwhile, the rest of your post is blind, unapologetic MVFC homerism.

And I don't mean that as a shot at SDSU or UNI, just that you have to be pretty dense to think the MVFC is that much stronger than other conferences.

The Valley has had 3 different teams in the natty the past 3 years and is 12-1 in first round playoff games. But, the Socon did have a team in the title game back in 2007.

[TheKingpin28]

It was earned by being the Southern Conference champions at 7-1.

That is a horrible argument. So winning the Pioneer and being undefeated should make them #2, right?

[WestCoastAggie]

The likely Committee's top 10:

1. JMU
2. NDSU
3. UCA
4. SDSU
5. JSU
6. SUU
7. Wofford
8. SHSU
9. Elon
10. WSU

A&T, Elon, NAU & WIU will be somewhere between 11-15, in the committee's eyes.

[TheKingpin28]

I think if you give NDSU any schedule and 90% of the time they'll go undefeated.

Meanwhile, the rest of your post is blind, unapologetic MVFC homerism.

And I don't mean that as a shot at SDSU or UNI, just that you have to be pretty dense to think the MVFC is that much stronger than other conferences.

Since the Socon has submitted an autobid for the FCS/1-AA playoffs in 1982, only 4 teams lost a first round game that wasn't against a fellow socon opponent. The Socon autobid hasn't lost a first round game against a non-Socon team since 1990.

The Citadel was the first last year, but they lost to...Wofford. I recognize that the only team who seems legitimate outside of the MVFC last year to NDSU/MVFC fans is JMU (only because they beat NDSU), but there's good reason to think that, even with Wofford's ugly wins this year they're a good football team worthy of a seed.

Now I know you are trolling. You have to be dense to say that.


15 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 61.61 59.11 10 ( 15)
18 COLONIAL (AA)= 54.36 55.06 12 ( 19)
21 BIG SKY (AA)= 51.15 50.30 13 ( 21)
23 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 47.34 47.13 8 ( 23)
24 SOUTHERN (AA)= 46.99 45.48 9 ( 24)

You sure about that?

[JSUSoutherner]

Prediction: No SoCon team gets two wins in the playoffs this year.

[katss07]

The likely Committee's top 10:

1. JMU
2. NDSU
3. UCA
4. SDSU
5. JSU
6. SUU
7. Wofford
8. SHSU
9. Elon
10. WSU

A&T, Elon, NAU & WIU will be somewhere between 11-15, in the committee's eyes.

No way SHSU drops this much! No way! Sure they played a bad game. They have cut the Kats slack many times, they will do it again. And SUU won’t move up that much.

I see the committee’s current top 8 as
1.JMU
2.NDSU
3.JSU
4.UCA
5.SDSU
6.SHSU
7.Wofford
8.SUU

I also think this is what the seeding looks like, if no top teams lose.

[Reign of Terrier]

That is a horrible argument. So winning the Pioneer and being undefeated should make them #2, right?

As I've already pointed out, the Southern conference autobid has won their first game in the playoffs all but 5 times in the history of having an autobid (one of those losses was to another Socon team last year). That's about an 85% win percentage in the first round of the playoffs, just for the autobid. Autobid hasn't lost a first round game since 1990 to a non-Socon team.

The MEAC, the patriot, the pioneer, the Big South, NEC and the OVC, and maybe not the Southland either.

You basically have to be dense and obsessed with computers to think that the Socon champ, sitting at 7-1 isn't worthy of a seed or is comparable to the Pioneer league champ

Now I know you are trolling. You have to be dense to say that.


15 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 61.61 59.11 10 ( 15)
18 COLONIAL (AA)= 54.36 55.06 12 ( 19)
21 BIG SKY (AA)= 51.15 50.30 13 ( 21)
23 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 47.34 47.13 8 ( 23)
24 SOUTHERN (AA)= 46.99 45.48 9 ( 24)

You sure about that?

You don't understand how computer averages workxcoffeex

The even more funny thing is that I'd say the median Socon team is better than the median Big Sky, Ivy and even CAA team this year. Earlier this season, there was a lot more parity in these rankings and there's nothing new to suggest that the Socon hasn't improved.

[Reign of Terrier]

Prediction: No SoCon team gets two wins in the playoffs this year.

That may very well be true for Wofford (we aren't great) but if Furman gets into the field, mark it down, they'll get the quarterfinals at the least (with no seed)

[TheKingpin28]

As I've already pointed out, the Southern conference autobid has won their first game in the playoffs all but 5 times in the history of having an autobid (one of those losses was to another Socon team last year). That's about an 85% win percentage in the first round of the playoffs, just for the autobid. Autobid hasn't lost a first round game since 1990 to a non-Socon team.

The MEAC, the patriot, the pioneer, the Big South, NEC and the OVC, and maybe not the Southland either.

You basically have to be dense and obsessed with computers to think that the Socon champ, sitting at 7-1 isn't worthy of a seed or is comparable to the Pioneer league champ


You don't understand how computer averages workxcoffeex

The even more funny thing is that I'd say the median Socon team is better than the median Big Sky, Ivy and even CAA team this year. Earlier this season, there was a lot more parity in these rankings and there's nothing new to suggest that the Socon hasn't improved.

Continue to twist the narrative how you would like, but the mathematics are not on your side for this one. Stick to your alternative facts and I will stick to the truth.

[Reign of Terrier]

The Valley has had 3 different teams in the natty the past 3 years and is 12-1 in first round playoff games. But, the Socon did have a team in the title game back in 2007.

being 12-1 in the first round of the playoffs isn't extremely impressive as many teams as they've had...

Socon has only lost 2 first round games in the last 5 years or so.

Just because the MVFC has a random team go on a run every year that isn't named NDSU, doesn't mean that the third best team in the conference (or the random team that went on a run 3 years ago that's in 3rd/4th place now) is head and shoulders above everyone else right now.

[Reign of Terrier]

Continue to twist the narrative how you would like, but the mathematics are not on your side for this one. Stick to your alternative facts and I will stick to the truth.

These aren't alternative facts. These are facts.

You're an idiot if you think the Socon is comparable to the Big South, Pioneer, Patriot, NEC, OVC or even the Southland. I can concede we're not as good as the MVFC, but I think Big Sky and CAA benefit by not playing a full schedule.

[TheKingpin28]

These aren't alternative facts. These are facts.

You're an idiot if you think the Socon is comparable to the Big South, Pioneer, Patriot, NEC, OVC or even the Southland. I can concede we're not as good as the MVFC, but I think Big Sky and CAA benefit by not playing a full schedule.


Have ya?

VMI and Presbyterian, both god awful, are the only teams you have beaten by more than 1 score.

-------------Furman: 24-23
-----------@ Mercer: 28-27
Gardner Webb (lol): 27-24
-----@ Presbyterian: 31-7
----------------WCU: 35-28 OT
------@ The Citadel: 20-16
------------Samford: 21-24
-------@ ETSU (lol): 31-24
---------Chatty (lol): 24-21 OTx2
--------------@ VMI: 45-14

Where in this schedule have you earned "your seed"? You are not in my Top 8 at all.


The Southland is a 2nd tier conference as of right now.

MVFC, CAA, and SoCon are Tier 1
Southland, Big Sky, and OVC are Tier 2
Big South, NEC, Patriot, and Ivy are Tier 3
Pioneer is Tier 4
MEAC and SWAC is something else

You should refresh yourself about what I post before trying to fire shots, since you look like a dumbass when you post **** like this. You know what happens when you assume, you just make an ASS out of yourself.

[JSUSoutherner]

That may very well be true for Wofford (we aren't great) but if Furman gets into the field, mark it down, they'll get the quarterfinals at the least (with no seed)
There's a solid chance they'll come to our place or go to JMU. If they do, they'll get throttled.

[PaladinFan]

There's a solid chance they'll come to our place or go to JMU. If they do, they'll get throttled.

You don’t seem to have seen Furman play yet.

Besides, let’s not pretend like JSU isn’t heavily bolstered by a weak schedule.

[JSUSoutherner]

You don’t seem to have seen Furman play yet.

Besides, let’s not pretend like JSU isn’t heavily bolstered by a weak schedule.

Georgia Tech struggled to run on us. What makes you think Furman could?

[WestCoastAggie]

There's a solid chance they'll come to our place or go to JMU. If they do, they'll get throttled.

Speaking of Furman and Wofford, why in the world are the computers ranking Furman so much higher than Wofford? Wofford is the SoCon champ this season, right?

Furman is number 17 and 13, while Wofford is 24 and 22 in the Massey and Sagarin respectively. Although by a point, Wofford beat Furman week 1 of the season.

It's stuff like this as to why the computer rankings only go so far, and why you have to throw them out when it comes to the committee.

[Reign of Terrier]

You should refresh yourself about what I post before trying to fire shots, since you look like a dumbass when you post **** like this. You know what happens when you assume, you just make an ASS out of yourself.

So you're comparing the Socon to the Pioneer in one breath and in the next calling us tier one. You did that in this thread too.

I'm just pointing out the inconsistency. You can't be a conference champion with one loss from a Tier 1 conference and not earn a seed.

By your logic, the only teams conclusively worthy of a seed are from the MVFC, JMU, Central Arkansas by virtue of being undefeated in FCS.

You're almost literally saying "I will only give the benefit of the doubt to a team that doesn't lose that isn't in the MVFC"

That's being a homer, point blank.

- - - Updated - - -


Speaking of Furman and Wofford, why in the world are the computers ranking Furman so much higher than Wofford? Wofford is the SoCon champ this season, right?

Furman is number 17 and 13, while Wofford is 24 and 22 in the Massey and Sagarin respectively. Although by a point, Wofford beat Furman week 1 of the season.

It's stuff like this as to why the computer rankings only go so far, and why you have to throw them out when it comes to the committee.

Furman's margin of victory is much higher. I wouldn't say it's unworthy, but if they lose this week and are still above us, that's another notch under "bad computer rankings"

[TheRealJacks]

If NAU wins @SUU this weekend, would they be considered for seed?

[Reign of Terrier]

Georgia Tech struggled to run on us. What makes you think Furman could?

This is not how football works. Furman has one of the best offenses in the country.

[WestCoastAggie]

If NAU wins @SUU this weekend, would they be considered for seed?

I don't think so, at this point. The committee seems to be not as high on NAU as they are SUU or Weber State. I think the they should be, considering their full body of work compared to the other contenders.

[JSUSoutherner]

This is not how football works. Furman has one of the best offenses in the country.
Remind me, what wins championships?

[PaladinFan]

Speaking of Furman and Wofford, why in the world are the computers ranking Furman so much higher than Wofford? Wofford is the SoCon champ this season, right?

Furman is number 17 and 13, while Wofford is 24 and 22 in the Massey and Sagarin respectively. Although by a point, Wofford beat Furman week 1 of the season.

It's stuff like this as to why the computer rankings only go so far, and why you have to throw them out when it comes to the committee.

Short story - Wofford has eked out a bunch of close wins against a weaker schedule. Furman has pretty much run roughshod over everyone since mid September.

[PaladinFan]

Georgia Tech struggled to run on us. What makes you think Furman could?

We do more than run it.

[Reign of Terrier]

Remind me, what wins championships?

A better understanding of your opponents tactics...which you currently lack

[JSUSoutherner]

We do more than run it.
That's fine. Our FS is a DPOY candidate and both our corners are NFL prospects. I encourage Furman to throw it as much as they want. xcoffeex

[PaladinFan]

Remind me, what wins championships?

JSU hasn't won championships

[semobison]

being 12-1 in the first round of the playoffs isn't extremely impressive as many teams as they've had...

Socon has only lost 2 first round games in the last 5 years or so.

Just because the MVFC has a random team go on a run every year that isn't named NDSU, doesn't mean that the third best team in the conference (or the random team that went on a run 3 years ago that's in 3rd/4th place now) is head and shoulders above everyone else right now.

The 3rd place team in the MVFC conference went to the finals last year! No, 12-1 isn't extremely impressive. should have been 13-0! Do you actually believe the crap coming off your fingertips. Let's get this straight. 1 through 7 in the Valley are definitely top 20 teams. Sure 5 of them may be in the 10-20 range. There are Valley teams that would win first round games who won't be in the playoffs. I don't have issues with that. I don't think Youngstown should be in the playoffs. But they did take NDSU and FBS Pitt to overtime. That's our 7th place team....The Socon is a good conference but has taken a step back since GSU and App St. left and recent playoff results confirm that!

[kalm]

These aren't alternative facts. These are facts.

You're an idiot if you think the Socon is comparable to the Big South, Pioneer, Patriot, NEC, OVC or even the Southland. I can concede we're not as good as the MVFC, but I think Big Sky and CAA benefit by not playing a full schedule.

Some do some don't. SBU would be an example of the former having missed JMU and Elon this season. EWU on the other hand played 6 of the top 7 Big Sky only missing NAU. SUU played 5 of the top 7 missing just Davis and Montana. OOC, EWU played TTU, NDSU, and Fordham. SUU played Oregon, SFA, and UNI. This not uncommon for the geographically challenged Big Sky and you don't have to look at computer rankings to see why certain playoff contending Big Sky teams garner more consideration than playoff contenders from the SoCon. Better SoS.

[JSUSoutherner]

JSU hasn't won championships
We haven't had the defense.

[TheKingpin28]

Some do some don't. SBU would be an example of the former having missed JMU and Elon this season. EWU on the other hand played 6 of the top 7 Big Sky only missing NAU. SUU played 5 of the top 7 missing just Davis and Montana. OOC, EWU played TTU, NDSU, and Fordham. SUU played Oregon, SFA, and UNI. This not uncommon for the geographically challenged Big Sky and you don't have to look at computer rankings to see why certain playoff contending Big Sky teams garner more consideration than playoff contenders from the SoCon. Better SoS.

Stop using logic. You are showing your MVFC bias in this post. xnodx

[TheKingpin28]

We haven't had the defense.

Or offense... :D

[Reign of Terrier]

The 3rd place team in the MVFC conference went to the finals last year! No, 12-1 isn't extremely impressive. should have been 13-0! Do you actually believe the crap coming off your fingertips. Let's get this straight. 1 through 7 in the Valley are definitely top 20 teams. Sure 5 of them may be in the 10-20 range. There are Valley teams that would win first round games who won't be in the playoffs. I don't have issues with that. I don't think Youngstown should be in the playoffs. But they did take NDSU and FBS Pitt to overtime. That's our 7th place team....The Socon is a good conference but has taken a step back since GSU and App St. left and recent playoff results confirm that!

Your third best team needed double OT to beat our second/third best team. Playoffs are not always the best metric in terms of measuring teams (so is Youngstown the best team in the conference or the second or the third last year? They made it farther in the playoffs) or even conferences up because of how they are organized. Weirdly enough I think the Citadel would have been a better team to take on a run than us because they had a better offense. But that's neither here nor there.

If we're going to use anecdotal evidence as a dick measuring contest the 5th best team Mercer, played 9 of its 10 games competitive in the fourth quarter, including a close loss to now-playoff-contender Auburn, losing only by 2 TDs. Our fourth best team Western Carolina could very well beat UNC too (it's worth mentioning that Pitt is not good this year and UNC lost to Pitt last week) and was 10 points or so away from sitting at 9-2 right now with a playoff bid.

The MVFC is not the only team with a slim margin of error or solid evidence that their conference is strong top-to-bottom (in the last 4 years or so, someone in the bottom three has beaten someone in the top 3 in the Socon, that was unheard of 10 years ago but it goes to show how competitive it is)

[semobison]

Your third best team needed double OT to beat our second/third best team. Playoffs are not always the best metric in terms of measuring teams (so is Youngstown the best team in the conference or the second or the third last year? They made it farther in the playoffs) or even conferences up because of how they are organized. Weirdly enough I think the Citadel would have been a better team to take on a run than us because they had a better offense. But that's neither here nor there.

If we're going to use anecdotal evidence as a dick measuring contest the 5th best team Mercer, played 9 of its 10 games competitive in the fourth quarter, including a close loss to now-playoff-contender Auburn, losing only by 2 TDs. Our fourth best team Western Carolina could very well beat UNC too (it's worth mentioning that Pitt is not good this year and UNC lost to Pitt last week) and was 10 points or so away from sitting at 9-2 right now with a playoff bid.

The MVFC is not the only team with a slim margin of error or solid evidence that their conference is strong top-to-bottom (in the last 4 years or so, someone in the bottom three has beaten someone in the top 3 in the Socon, that was unheard of 10 years ago but it goes to show how competitive it is)

No dick measuring needed. In the last 3 years in the playoffs:
8 Valley teams made the quarters.
2 Socon made the quarters and neither advanced.
The Valley has had 4 teams, 3 different teams in the finals, the Socon hasn't had a team make the semi's.....I'm done!

[Reign of Terrier]

Some do some don't. SBU would be an example of the former having missed JMU and Elon this season. EWU on the other hand played 6 of the top 7 Big Sky only missing NAU. SUU played 5 of the top 7 missing just Davis and Montana. OOC, EWU played TTU, NDSU, and Fordham. SUU played Oregon, SFA, and UNI. This not uncommon for the geographically challenged Big Sky and you don't have to look at computer rankings to see why certain playoff contending Big Sky teams garner more consideration than playoff contenders from the SoCon. Better SoS.

I'm not knocking the CAA/MVFC for SOS. They have it. Socon is bad this year in terms of OOC SOS (though our record is good).

I'm responding to this argument


That is a horrible argument. So winning the Pioneer and being undefeated should make them #2, right?

It's inherently fallacious to compare the Socon and the Pioneer for reasons that are pretty obvious (scholarships, playoff records, etc).

Long story short, though I'm sure the MVFC has earned their playoff spots, I think the NDSU/MVFC folks are doing a lot to tear down the SOS of conferences like the Southland and Socon because we don't have the benefit of a key OOC win. We don't have as many teams as flashy as the CAA or Big Sky sitting at 8-3 because we have to play everybody or close to everyone (I would argue the median team in the CAA is worse than the median team in the Socon and that their OOC schedule is comparable).

so for some reason a 7-1 conference champ from the Socon doesn't look seed-worthy to them because we haven't blown anyone out, but we would give much more benefit of the doubt to an MVFC team that won the conference with similar credentials.

[PantherRob82]

Wasn’t McNeese in 2013 pretty bad?

Touche

- - - Updated - - -


Because a Southern Conference champion is comparable to a MEAC championxrolleyesx

If a MVFC team had Wofford's resume y'all would be swooning over how clutch they are

But I actually watched your games. Not clutch.

[Reign of Terrier]

No dick measuring needed. In the last 3 years in the playoffs:
8 Valley teams made the quarters.
2 Socon made the quarters and neither advanced.
The Valley has had 4 teams, 3 different teams in the finals, the Socon hasn't had a team make the semi's.....I'm done!

that's a very misleading stat.

14 Valley teams made the playoffs in the last 3 years.
7 made it from the socon.

Every year for the Valley there is
1) NDSU
2) SDSU
and
3) a team that gets put in the field of 24 that goes on a run

Most of the teams in the MVFC who make it to the quarters are seeded going in to it.

Meanwhile, only two teams for the Socon have been seeded in the last 3 years. One lost to another Socon team, the other blew out an MVFC team by 3 TDs.

Notice the circularity of playoff success? Teams are seeded high because of their rankings during the season, they do okay and advance once or twice, sometimes being eliminated (often by their own team). Then, teams are ranked high by their playoff success.

The only way to knock this over is by having more consistency by other conferences in the regular season. The MVFC has had its **** together and the rest of the country finally does now.

- - - Updated - - -


[QUOTE=katss07;2565729]

Touche

- - - Updated - - -



But I actually watched your games. Not clutch.

9-1 seems pretty clutch to me.

[katss07]

that's a very misleading stat.

14 Valley teams made the playoffs in the last 3 years.
7 made it from the socon.

Every year for the Valley there is
1) NDSU
2) SDSU
and
3) a team that gets put in the field of 24 that goes on a run

Most of the teams in the MVFC who make it to the quarters are seeded going in to it.

Meanwhile, only two teams for the Socon have been seeded in the last 3 years. One lost to another Socon team, the other blew out an MVFC team by 3 TDs.

Notice the circularity of playoff success? Teams are seeded high because of their rankings during the season, they do okay and advance once or twice, sometimes being eliminated (often by their own team). Then, teams are ranked high by their playoff success.

The only way to knock this over is by having more consistency by other conferences in the regular season. The MVFC has had its **** together and the rest of the country finally does now.

- - - Updated - - -

[QUOTE=PantherRob82;2565858]

9-1 seems pretty clutch to me.

Wofford shouldn’t need to be clutch against Gardner Webb.

I think the thing about it is that Wofford is...
1. Maybe a bit overrated
2. In the Soccon, which would be lucky to get 3 teams in
3. Has not been able to put teams away.

I can see why people are arguing against Wofford, but I think they should stay as a 7 or 8 seed. Just don’t be surprised if the fall in the polls and don’t get a seed. They have really pushed it by allowing teams to stay in games.

[PantherRob82]

9-1 seems pretty clutch to me.

From an unbiased perspective it seemed like some luck and a choke job. xthumbsupx

[Reign of Terrier]

[QUOTE=youngterrier;2565862]that's a very misleading stat.

14 Valley teams made the playoffs in the last 3 years.
7 made it from the socon.

Every year for the Valley there is
1) NDSU
2) SDSU
and
3) a team that gets put in the field of 24 that goes on a run

Most of the teams in the MVFC who make it to the quarters are seeded going in to it.

Meanwhile, only two teams for the Socon have been seeded in the last 3 years. One lost to another Socon team, the other blew out an MVFC team by 3 TDs.

Notice the circularity of playoff success? Teams are seeded high because of their rankings during the season, they do okay and advance once or twice, sometimes being eliminated (often by their own team). Then, teams are ranked high by their playoff success.

The only way to knock this over is by having more consistency by other conferences in the regular season. The MVFC has had its **** together and the rest of the country finally does now.

- - - Updated - - -



Wofford shouldn’t need to be clutch against Gardner Webb.

I think the thing about it is that Wofford is...
1. Maybe a bit overrated
2. In the Soccon, which would be lucky to get 3 teams in
3. Has not been able to put teams away.

I can see why people are arguing against Wofford, but I think they should stay as a 7 or 8 seed. Just don’t be surprised if the fall in the polls and don’t get a seed. They have really pushed it by allowing teams to stay in games.

To be clear, I'm not arguing for Wofford's dominance or anything. Just that we deserve a seed.

We won't fall from a seed with a loss to South Carolina.

- - - Updated - - -


From an unbiased perspective it seemed like some luck and a choke job. xthumbsupx

Weren't you the same unbiased person who said Albany deserved to be in the top 25 when they were 3-3? Or was that Youngstown State?

You're so unbiasedxcoffeex

[cx500d]

[QUOTE=katss07;2565870]

To be clear, I'm not arguing for Wofford's dominance or anything. Just that we deserve a seed.

We won't fall from a seed with a loss to South Carolina.



Why the negative waves, Moriarity? I'm hoping you will beat them.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuStsFW4EmQ

[PantherRob82]

Weren't you the same unbiased person who said Albany deserved to be in the top 25 when they were 3-3? Or was that Youngstown State?

You're so unbiasedxcoffeex

...that seems like the exact definition of unbiased. Teams that I have no rooting interest for that I have seen play and make an objective ranking on more than W-L. You sure have been getting kicked around in here lately. xlolx

[TheKingpin28]

...that seems like the exact definition of unbiased. Teams that I have no rooting interest for that I have seen play and make an objective ranking on more than W-L. You sure have been getting kicked around in here lately. xlolx

You are a bandwagon fan. You'd think he would understand you are as unbiased as they come. :D

[PantherRob82]

You are a bandwagon fan. You'd think he would understand you are as unbiased as they come. :D

Yeah, Im not a fan of YSU and I am indifferent about Albany. It’s not like I’m arguing for northern Iowa, Montana, New Hampshire, or one of the other programs I really enjoy.

[Reign of Terrier]

...that seems like the exact definition of unbiased. Teams that I have no rooting interest for that I have seen play and make an objective ranking on more than W-L. You sure have been getting kicked around in here lately. xlolx

lol it kind of shows how bad you are at being objective if you cling to SOS or Sagarin or whatever in spite of the fact that a team is .500 half way through the season

[PantherRob82]

lol it kind of shows how bad you are at being objective if you cling to SOS or Sagarin or whatever in spite of the fact that a team is .500 half way through the season
I don’t cling to anything. I watch football

[PantherRob82]

I’ve been watching FCS for nearly 30 years. I would put money on any .500 team in the MVFC or CAA to beat Monmouth or Kennesaw State at their place.

You keep giving props to Monmouth but were so worked up about my vote for Albany, a team that beat them with ease.

[Reign of Terrier]

I’ve been watching FCS for nearly 30 years. I would put money on any .500 team in the MVFC or CAA to beat Monmouth or Kennesaw State at their place.

You keep giving props to Monmouth but were so worked up about my vote for Albany, a team that beat them with ease.

Cool story bro, tell it again.xcoffeex

[TheKingpin28]

Yeah, Im not a fan of YSU and I am indifferent about Albany. It’s not like I’m arguing for northern Iowa, Montana, New Hampshire, or one of the other programs I really enjoy.


I don’t cling to anything. I watch football

I've just given up with him sinc he cannot take his glasses off and be slightly objective at all. It is what it is, but that is why I stopped trying to argue with logic and facts.

[cx500d]

Cool story bro, tell it again.xcoffeex

I haven't been watching it for that long, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn once.

[TheKingpin28]

I haven't been watching it for that long, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn once.

But did you eat at a Casey's and get Breakfast Pizza with Extra Bacon?

[cx500d]

But did you eat at a Casey's and get Breakfast Pizza with Extra Bacon?


http://replygif.net/i/1096.gif

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I’ve been watching FCS for nearly 30 years. I would put money on any .500 team in the MVFC or CAA to beat Monmouth or Kennesaw State at their place.

You keep giving props to Monmouth but were so worked up about my vote for Albany, a team that beat them with ease.



This here.

[PantherRob82]

Cool story bro, tell it again.xcoffeex

Deflection is a great way to argue when your opinions are weak. ;)

[Reign of Terrier]

I've just given up with him sinc he cannot take his glasses off and be slightly objective at all. It is what it is, but that is why I stopped trying to argue with logic and facts.

I mean if you're going to misapply the frame of my original argument from a thread that's like 2 months old (note: my argument at the time was not "Monmouth should be ranked" it was "many posters give way too much benefit of the doubt to teams who will likely not make the playoffs"...an argument that has been pretty much vindicated in time) to make an argument I didn't, go ahead.

I'm not going to indulge. You're bias is that of the typical AGS poster...you undervalue the losses of ranked teams and are overcritical of teams not broken into the top 25. This bias is widespread and why it's a lot harder to climb the ranking than it is to fall from them. Everyone outside the MVFC notices this.

Y'all are the ones who are arguing that the Socon champ doesn't deserve a seed, is comparable to the Pioneer (lol) or that 3-4 MVFC teams deserve a seed over everyone else. Put aside the fact that that has never happened with any conference and the committee will never collective suck the cock of one conference to do that, that on it's face is just dumb homerism.

[Professor Chaos]

I don't know how you guys argue with youngterrier. I get tired and don't have the attention span to read through his entire posts most of the time.

[TheKingpin28]

I mean if you're going to misapply the frame of my original argument from a thread that's like 2 months old (note: my argument at the time was not "Monmouth should be ranked" it was "many posters give way too much benefit of the doubt to teams who will likely not make the playoffs"...an argument that has been pretty much vindicated in time) to make an argument I didn't, go ahead.

I'm not going to indulge. You're bias is that of the typical AGS poster...you undervalue the losses of ranked teams and are overcritical of teams not broken into the top 25. This bias is widespread and why it's a lot harder to climb the ranking than it is to fall from them. Everyone outside the MVFC notices this.

Y'all are the ones who are arguing that the Socon champ doesn't deserve a seed, is comparable to the Pioneer (lol) or that 3-4 MVFC teams deserve a seed over everyone else. Put aside the fact that that has never happened with any conference and the committee will never collective suck the cock of one conference to do that, that on it's face is just dumb homerism.

If you looked at my poll, which I post each week, I am about dead on with the aggregate, which means I am actually not biased and see what others see. If you want to parade around and believe this, go on ahead, but when my poll lines up with AGS, which is the most accurate poll for all of FCS, then I would say that I am actually very objective. You won't like this, but those of us who vote, are generally harder on our own teams and conferences than others. It has been proven multiple times that this is the truth and this is the way things are. If you don't accept this, then fine, but believe what you want even if we all know it is wrong.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I don't know how you guys argue with youngterrier. I get tired and don't have the attention span to read through his posts most of the time.


I skip his posts most of the time.

xnodx

[Reign of Terrier]

If you looked at my poll, which I post each week, I am about dead on with the aggregate, which means I am actually not biased and see what others see. If you want to parade around and believe this, go on ahead, but when my poll lines up with AGS, which is the most accurate poll for all of FCS, then I would say that I am actually very objective. You won't like this, but those of us who vote, are generally harder on our own teams and conferences than others. It has been proven multiple times that this is the truth and this is the way things are. If you don't accept this, then fine, but believe what you want even if we all know it is wrong.

If the aggregate holds a bias that doesn't really reflect as well on you as I think. Let's remember in all polls Furman was ranked until like 2 weeks ago. There's a list of teams who have to win like 6 or 7 games before they sniff the ranking.

[katss07]

Furman Sucks

[TheKingpin28]

If the aggregate holds a bias that doesn't really reflect as well on you as I think. Let's remember in all polls Furman was ranked until like 2 weeks ago. There's a list of teams who have to win like 6 or 7 games before they sniff the ranking.

Tell me how the aggregate holds bias since an aggregate is an AVERAGE of ALL polls. You should head back to math class since you cannot figure out these simple things.

Yeah cause these wins quantify T25 status:

Colgate
ETSU
Chatty
VMI
Mercer

You are telling me with losses to: Wofford, Elon, NC State they deserved to be ranked? GTFOH with your crap. Seriously? At 5-3 they deserved to be ranked? Yeah ok! The reason they finally got votes was then they dismantled WCU at WCU and followed it up with a mauling of The Citadel. Know your stuff before you post. You would be doing the rest of us a favor.

[PantherRob82]

I mean if you're going to misapply the frame of my original argument from a thread that's like 2 months old (note: my argument at the time was not "Monmouth should be ranked" it was "many posters give way too much benefit of the doubt to teams who will likely not make the playoffs"...an argument that has been pretty much vindicated in time) to make an argument I didn't, go ahead.

I'm not going to indulge. You're bias is that of the typical AGS poster...you undervalue the losses of ranked teams and are overcritical of teams not broken into the top 25. This bias is widespread and why it's a lot harder to climb the ranking than it is to fall from them. Everyone outside the MVFC notices this.

Y'all are the ones who are arguing that the Socon champ doesn't deserve a seed, is comparable to the Pioneer (lol) or that 3-4 MVFC teams deserve a seed over everyone else. Put aside the fact that that has never happened with any conference and the committee will never collective suck the cock of one conference to do that, that on it's face is just dumb homerism.

I would be fine with Furman getting the 8 seed.

You always want want to make this about the MVFC, but our posters are the majority of fans actually watching FCS games on a national level.

- - - Updated - - -


I don't know how you guys argue with youngterrier. I get tired and don't have the attention span to read through his entire posts most of the time.

Just skim and pick the lowest hanging fruit. xlolx

[Reign of Terrier]

Tell me how the aggregate holds bias since an aggregate is an AVERAGE of ALL polls. You should head back to math class since you cannot figure out these simple things.

Yeah cause these wins quantify T25 status:

Colgate
ETSU
Chatty
VMI
Mercer

You are telling me with losses to: Wofford, Elon, NC State they deserved to be ranked? GTFOH with your crap. Seriously? At 5-3 they deserved to be ranked? Yeah ok! The reason they finally got votes was then they dismantled WCU at WCU and followed it up with a mauling of The Citadel. Know your stuff before you post. You would be doing the rest of us a favor.

You're leaving out the part where they had won 6 straight games, Five of them by 20+.

Polls can be and are biased. Polls measure perception and that perception can only measure the priorities and beliefs of those participating in it*.
I would know, I have a master's in a field that does polling, as well as quantitative and qualitative measurements of people's perception of different things xcoffeex


*FCS polling is inherently flawed (and will always be) because of scheduling, weird conferences like the MEAC, Ivy, Patriot, Pioneer and NEC, herding in polls due to bandwagon fans, and lack of media exposure among other things. Calling someone biased isn't calling someone stupid, wrong or bad (everyone has biases). The problem arises when we can't acknowledge or correct for that bias when it's pointed out.

[kalm]

I mean if you're going to misapply the frame of my original argument from a thread that's like 2 months old (note: my argument at the time was not "Monmouth should be ranked" it was "many posters give way too much benefit of the doubt to teams who will likely not make the playoffs"...an argument that has been pretty much vindicated in time) to make an argument I didn't, go ahead.

I'm not going to indulge. You're bias is that of the typical AGS poster...you undervalue the losses of ranked teams and are overcritical of teams not broken into the top 25. This bias is widespread and why it's a lot harder to climb the ranking than it is to fall from them. Everyone outside the MVFC notices this.

Y'all are the ones who are arguing that the Socon champ doesn't deserve a seed, is comparable to the Pioneer (lol) or that 3-4 MVFC teams deserve a seed over everyone else. Put aside the fact that that has never happened with any conference and the committee will never collective suck the cock of one conference to do that, that on it's face is just dumb homerism.

So Furman didn't dig out of an 0-3 hole where Elon was under-valued fast enough for you?

How about SUU after the Sac State loss?

Oops!

[Reign of Terrier]

So Furman didn't dig out of an 0-3 hole where Elon was under-valued fast enough for you?

How about SUU after the Sac State loss?

Oops!

Not sure if this a gotcha comment or a joke, but I have no opinion about SUU/Sac State and never really have (I didn't register to vote this year, but I probably would have ranked them earlier than the average voter)

Edit: But the thing is, Youngstown State and Teams like Albany had 3 losses and were .500 at the midway point of the season and barely dropped from the polls because of the competition. That's the point I'm getting at. It's pretty easy to drop teams when they lose games that early, because if they're truly good enough they'll climb back in late in the season. For many voters, they *refuse* to drop teams in the MVFC/CAA if they lose 3 games early (Hell, even the Socon was like this with the Citadel), but if you start off 5-2/5-1/5-3 and aren't ranked you don't get the same cushion.

[PantherRob82]

Not sure if this a gotcha comment or a joke, but I have no opinion about football outside of the SoCon except for the W/L column and computer bias.

Fixed

[Reign of Terrier]

So you admit you're allergic to nuance? Because those are neither of my positions

[JSUSoutherner]

Not sure if this a gotcha comment or a joke, but I have no opinion about SUU/Sac State and never really have (I didn't register to vote this year, but I probably would have ranked them earlier than the average voter)

Actual question: How many FCS games outside the SoCon have you seen this year?

[Reign of Terrier]

Actual question: How many FCS games outside the SoCon have you seen this year?

I've caught a couple CAA games (namely Richmond and JMU against various opponents), Southland (SHSU v. Southeastern Louisiana)and MVFC. If it's actually any of your business, I don't usually have time because I live about 5-6 hours from Wofford and I've made about 4 games this year (Furman, Gardner Webb, Samford and VMI) so about 1/3 of my Saturdays I'm away from my computer. I'm in a weird part of life right now (transitioning from grad school to the professional world across states) and if not having FCS as my #1 priority (or top 5 for that matter) makes my word less credible just for it's own sake, so be it. I'd rather you guys weigh the assessment for what it is, not pick apart my personal schedule

I don't believe anyone who says they've watched more than 2-3 games a weekend outside of their own conference (sidenote: before ESPN3 in the last 10 years or so it was pretty much impossible to follow FCS football to the level some people are suggesting is necessary, so I categorically dismiss claims of watching FCS football for x amount of years as just signalling credibility that's either irrelevant or fictional. If you're gonna nail me for not watching anything but Socon games, then fine, I'm guilty. I'm not spending 12 hours more watching football than I already do, and I'm skeptical others are either. I find this "hOw MaNy GaMeS dO yOu WaTcH" question a form of signalling ("he's not an actual FCS fan") that doesn't necessarily reflect one's ability to analyze games or teams.

I don't think you have to physically watch a team to get a measure of how good they are; that's why stats exist in the first place. They tell the story in a way that's faster than sitting and watching the game could. I take the input of the people who follow their conference exclusively more than the people who claim to watch the whole FCS, because the bias of the former is a lot easier to measure and account for than the latter.

Having said that, I do look at stats for various teams and measure their efficiency against opponents (how many times do they score per possession, etc) because I think it's a faster way to understand how a team works than just watching it. (I couldn't tell you how many times I've gone through random pages of MVFC teams, for instance) To put in another way, my method I like to think reduces the qualitative to the quantitative for the sake of time.

And I take the same approach to socon school, I've only seen Furman/Samford/Western play like twice this year, but I know what they do (and how well they do it) as well as anyone (I've written the weekly review for the socon wedge since week 4 or so with this approach, you can go through them and test them for thoroughness if you want)

[katss07]

I rarely watch more than 3 FCS games per weekend ( this weekend I watched CCStU vs Duquense, SHSU vs ACU and some of Elon vs UNH). But just because I don’t watch it all weekend doesn’t mean I’m not a knowledgeable fan, and nobody is questioning if you are actually a fan.

[PantherRob82]

I've caught a couple CAA games (namely Richmond and JMU against various opponents), Southland (SHSU v. Southeastern Louisiana)and MVFC. If it's actually any of your business, I don't usually have time because I live about 5-6 hours from Wofford and I've made about 4 games this year (Furman, Gardner Webb, Samford and VMI) so about 1/3 of my Saturdays I'm away from my computer. I'm in a weird part of life right now (transitioning from grad school to the professional world across states) and if not having FCS as my #1 priority (or top 5 for that matter) makes my word less credible just for it's own sake, so be it. I'd rather you guys weigh the assessment for what it is, not pick apart my personal schedule

I don't believe anyone who says they've watched more than 2-3 games a weekend outside of their own conference (sidenote: before ESPN3 in the last 10 years or so it was pretty much impossible to follow FCS football to the level some people are suggesting is necessary, so I categorically dismiss claims of watching FCS football for x amount of years as just signalling credibility that's either irrelevant or fictional. If you're gonna nail me for not watching anything but Socon games, then fine, I'm guilty. I'm not spending 12 hours more watching football than I already do, and I'm skeptical others are either. I find this "hOw MaNy GaMeS dO yOu WaTcH" question a form of signalling ("he's not an actual FCS fan") that doesn't necessarily reflect one's ability to analyze games or teams.

I don't think you have to physically watch a team to get a measure of how good they are; that's why stats exist in the first place. They tell the story in a way that's faster than sitting and watching the game could. I take the input of the people who follow their conference exclusively more than the people who claim to watch the whole FCS, because the bias of the former is a lot easier to measure and account for than the latter.

Having said that, I do look at stats for various teams and measure their efficiency against opponents (how many times do they score per possession, etc) because I think it's a faster way to understand how a team works than just watching it. (I couldn't tell you how many times I've gone through random pages of MVFC teams, for instance) To put in another way, my method I like to think reduces the qualitative to the quantitative for the sake of time.

And I take the same approach to socon school, I've only seen Furman/Samford/Western play like twice this year, but I know what they do (and how well they do it) as well as anyone (I've written the weekly review for the socon wedge since week 4 or so with this approach, you can go through them and test them for thoroughness if you want)

xlolx

you just keep digging.

[Reign of Terrier]

I rarely watch more than 3 FCS games per weekend ( this weekend I watched CCStU vs Duquense, SHSU vs ACU and some of Elon vs UNH). But just because I don’t watch it all weekend doesn’t mean I’m not a knowledgeable fan, and nobody is questioning if you are actually a fan.

You say that but:


xlolx

you just keep digging.

>to dig in the way you imply would mean I care about your opinion or the opinion of random strangers on the internet

[katss07]

You say that but:



>to dig in the way you imply would mean I care about your opinion or the opinion of random strangers on the internet

I could be wrong but I don’t think anyone is questioning you being a fan. We are just questioning some of the stuff you say.

[kalm]

Not sure if this a gotcha comment or a joke, but I have no opinion about SUU/Sac State and never really have (I didn't register to vote this year, but I probably would have ranked them earlier than the average voter)

Edit: But the thing is, Youngstown State and Teams like Albany started the season with 3 losses and barely dropped from the polls because of the competition. That's the point I'm getting at. It's pretty easy to drop teams when they lose games that early, because if they're truly good enough they'll climb back in late in the season. For many voters, they *refuse* to drop teams in the MVFC/CAA if they lose 3 games early (Hell, even the Socon was like this with the Citadel), but if you start off 5-2/5-1/5-3 and aren't ranked you don't get the same cushion.

YSU and Albany started the season with three losses?

[PantherRob82]

You say that but:



>to dig in the way you imply would mean I care about your opinion or the opinion of random strangers on the internet

Where did I question if you were a fan? You posted a long crybaby rant about your personal life that no one cares about. The question was about how many games you have caught outside of the SoCon. You have become a highly opinionated poster who weighs in on everything this year, so go figure that people want to know what you are basing these opinions on. All you had to say was “I don’t watch a lot of football because I am busy, but I look at stats” instead you post:

xbabycryx “don’t pick apart my personal schedule” xlolx

Also, this is the Internet. Lighten up. xbeerchugx

[Reign of Terrier]

I could be wrong but I don’t think anyone is questioning you being a fan. We are just questioning some of the stuff you say.

I think bringing up how many games I physically watch is meant to discredit my analysis. You don't need to watch ETSU v. Chattanooga to have a deep insight into the FCS playoffs. There are faster, more convenient way to get the low-down on the FCS without watching 4+ games a week (which I guarantee you most people don't)

[Reign of Terrier]

YSU and Albany started the season with three losses?

Albany was 3-3 and had two straight losses. Some voters said they should still be ranked and I objected to that. They've lost four games straight since.

Youngstown State was 3-4 a couple weeks later. similar story.

My point in both cases was that if they were going to rally, it would take weeks to do so (and FWIW the voters agreed with me the next day, not Rob)

Every week we keep a suboptimal team in the field it hurts the chances of another team to climb the rankings and make noise. A 3 or 4 loss team shouldn't be ranked until the final 2-3 weeks of the season so defending one being ranked at the halfway point is a farce.

In contrast, Furman was probably like 5-3 at the time of Youngstown. They had won 5 straight. see the difference?

[Reign of Terrier]

Where did I question if you were a fan? You posted a long crybaby rant about your personal life that no one cares about. The question was about how many games you have caught outside of the SoCon. You have become a highly opinionated poster who weighs in on everything this year, so go figure that people want to know what you are basing these opinions on. All you had to say was “I don’t watch a lot of football because I am busy, but I look at stats” instead you post:

xbabycryx “don’t pick apart my personal schedule” xlolx

Also, this is the Internet. Lighten up. xbeerchugx

I don't see the purpose of asking how many games I've watched other than to try to discredit my comments in a no True Scotman sort of way. So I'll give the full context.

No one really wants to know my full process of analysis unless you want an annoying spreadsheet that took me 2 weeks to create

[katss07]

I think bringing up how many games I physically watch is meant to discredit my analysis. You don't need to watch ETSU v. Chattanooga to have a deep insight into the FCS playoffs. There are faster, more convenient way to get the low-down on the FCS without watching 4+ games a week (which I guarantee you most people don't)
I agree. I tend to watch SHSU, the game of the week and bits and pieces of other important games. But Sunday afternoon I spend loads of time reading summaries and box scores. Stats are important, but as an SHSU fan I know they are not everything. Watching the games are important, but if you don’t watch the games because you are busy? No one is faulting you for that. I watch what I can of the regular season. Playoff games are a different story for me. I try and watch every game, and when I’m at Bowers or on a trip to a road game I watch on my phone.

No one is faulting you for being busy, its just the comments you make. We understand you are a “real fan” ( and if you were not why the **** would you be on here?) And like Pantherrob said, cheer up bro.

[PantherRob82]

I don't see the purpose of asking how many games I've watched other than to try to discredit my comments in a no True Scotman sort of way. So I'll give the full context.

No one really wants to know my full process of analysis unless you want an annoying spreadsheet that took me 2 weeks to create

Cool story, bro. Tell it again. xslapfightxxlolxxlovexxdrunkyx

[Reign of Terrier]

Cool story, bro. Tell it again. xslapfightxxlolxxlovexxdrunkyx

touche

edit: now that you've broadcast your intentions in the signature, you realize I will be less susceptible in the future

[TheKingpin28]

touche

edit: now that you've broadcast your intentions in the signature, you realize I will be less susceptible in the future

Ending up in a signature is usually not a good thing.

[PantherRob82]

touche

edit: now that you've broadcast your intentions in the signature, you realize I will be less susceptible in the future

I just have to give you a hard time. You have come on strong this year. I’ll be sure to wear my Wofford shirt this week in your honor. xthumbsupx

[clenz]

Albany was 3-3 and had two straight losses. Some voters said they should still be ranked and I objected to that. They've lost four games straight since.

Youngstown State was 3-4 a couple weeks later. similar story.

My point in both cases was that if they were going to rally, it would take weeks to do so (and FWIW the voters agreed with me the next day, not Rob)

Every week we keep a suboptimal team in the field it hurts the chances of another team to climb the rankings and make noise. A 3 or 4 loss team shouldn't be ranked until the final 2-3 weeks of the season so defending one being ranked at the halfway point is a farce.

In contrast, Furman was probably like 5-3 at the time of Youngstown. They had won 5 straight. see the difference?

So Albany and YSU didn’t start the season with 3 losses and to try to make your point you get to more than halfway through the season to go “see they were 3-3” to show their losses.

So, I can look but I already know the answer, but I’ll give you the easiest toss up you’re gonna get.

Are you really trying to claim YSU and Albany started the year with 3 losses or were you being a hyperbolic little bitch?


Rob, he isn’t becoming a “crybaby”. He was exactly the same way a decade ago. The difference is that we gave him a pass back then because he was like 12.

The same attitude still exists from him. It’s one of a spoiled kid that thinks he had it rough but never did.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Reign of Terrier]

Ending up in a signature is usually not a good thing.

Life is what you make of it

Now where's my cocaine?

[Reign of Terrier]

So Albany and YSU didn’t start the season with 3 losses and to try to make your point you get to more than halfway through the season to go “see they were 3-3” to show their losses.

So, I can look but I already know the answer, but I’ll give you the easiest toss up you’re gonna get.

Are you really trying to claim YSU and Albany started the year with 3 losses or were you being a hyperbolic little bitch?


Rob, he isn’t becoming a “crybaby”. He was exactly the same way a decade ago. The difference is that we gave him a pass back then because he was like 12.

The same attitude still exists from him. It’s one of a spoiled kid that thinks he had it rough but never did.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Bruh take it down a notch

Let's not make assumptions about how I view my own life as that is not the point of the thread (FWIW anyone who went to Wofford didn't have it too bad and I'm not here for "that stuff")

My point most succinctly is that with Albany sitting at 3-3 with 2 straight losses I didn't feel they were worthy of a ranking (I feel vindicated by that) and the next week Youngstown was sitting at 3-4 with 3 straight losses and I felt the same thing. That's a valid perspective, that the voters actually agreed with me on, a week later. You can go back and find the thread.

Calm down. You're easily the most angry person on AGS every time you post and I don't get why.

PS: Whatever I said to you in the last 10 years to give you a bad impression I apologize. I honestly don't remember. I hope UNI enjoys the playoffs, I imagine they'll last longer than Wofford.

[katss07]

The persecution of SHSU is over? I’ll believe it when I see it!

Thinking back to last year, SHSU is in the same position as last season, except they have one loss. SLC is much better. Stange how one season can be a difference.

[PantherRob82]

Bruh take it down a notch

Let's not make assumptions about how I view my own life as that is not the point of the thread (FWIW anyone who went to Wofford didn't have it too bad and I'm not here for "that stuff")

My point most succinctly is that with Albany sitting at 3-3 with 2 straight losses I didn't feel they were worthy of a ranking (I feel vindicated by that) and the next week Youngstown was sitting at 3-4 with 3 straight losses and I felt the same thing. That's a valid perspective, that the voters actually agreed with me on, a week later. You can go back and find the thread.

Calm down

PS: Whatever I said to you in the last 10 years to give you a bad impression I apologize. I honestly don't remember. I hope UNI enjoys the playoffs, I imagine they'll last longer than Wofford.
Nah. UNI wins Thanksgiving weekend and then bows out. Unless they get a bad matchup Wofford should be playing a week longer.

[PantherRob82]

The persecution of SHSU is over? I’ll believe it when I see it!

Thinking back to last year, SHSU is in the same position as last season, except they have one loss. SLC is much better. Stange how one season can be a difference.

I meant more in my sig. Most of your loud posters from last year are gone so I don’t need to recall the JMU-SHSU score to keep them in check. :)

[ST_Lawson]

...Plus the loss to USD looks worse every week.

Not disagreeing with you necessarily, but USD in November is not the team USD was in September. Streveler was 100% (he's been maybe 80% tops since the Illinois State game), they had a couple of defensive players (including their top DB) on the field that are now in court, and Western was 60 seconds away from taking the lead in our game with them with 34 seconds on the clock (that was our fault...spotted them too many points in the first half).

Yes, they're a hot mess now, but before the s#!^show, they were one of top offensive teams in the FCS.

[Reign of Terrier]

Western Illinois will be in with a win this week.

South Dakota is likely out if they can't win this week.

Historically, I'm pretty sure no conference has gotten more than 2 seeds anyway.

That's just how the cookie will crumble.

[thebootfitter]

You don't understand how computer averages work.
I'm not yet convinced you do either. :-)


Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

[BisonTru]

Western Illinois will be in with a win this week.

South Dakota is likely out if they can't win this week.

Historically, I'm pretty sure no conference has gotten more than 2 seeds anyway.

That's just how the cookie will crumble.

At 7-4 with the projected 3rd toughest schedule in the country and a FBS win? USD should be a lock.

[Reign of Terrier]

At 7-4 with the projected 3rd toughest schedule in the country and a FBS win? USD should be a lock.

As I've been harping on in this thread, it's going to depend on the field. I don't see two 7-4 teams from the same conference getting in, given this field.

Even the FBS win isn't that impressive. What are the quality wins for SD outside of Western Illinois? They have some pretty bad double digit losses also.

[melloware13]

There is precedent for a 7-win team that was 4-4 in conference (in a major conference) to be left out following a 3 game losing streak to end the year. USD will likely be out with a loss.

[BisonTru]

As I've been harping on in this thread, it's going to depend on the field. I don't see two 7-4 teams from the same conference getting in, given this field.

Even the FBS win isn't that impressive. What are the quality wins for SD outside of Western Illinois? They have some pretty bad double digit losses also.

Number of teams from one conference is a non starter. It's in the guidelines. USD's resume stands alone whether another 7-4 MVFC team is in or not. Like I said they will hold the projected #3 toughest schedule in the country. Two of their losses they were definitely in the game to teams that are borderline playoff teams. They were getting #1 votes not too long ago, and now they aren't a playoff team? And let's not forget we are assuming they lose to South Dakota St that will probably be seeded in that scenario. If that's a close game, that's still an impressive showing.

Also, not sure if this will be taken into consideration but their beatdown of UND was back when UND wasn't completely destroyed by the injury bug.

[Reign of Terrier]

There is precedent for a 7-win team that was 4-4 in conference (in a major conference) to be left out following a 3 game losing streak to end the year. USD will likely be out with a loss.


Number of teams from one conference is a non starter. It's in the guidelines. USD's resume stands alone whether another 7-4 MVFC team is in or not. Like I said they will hold the projected #3 toughest schedule in the country. Two of their losses they were definitely in the game to teams that are borderline playoff teams. They were getting #1 votes not too long ago, and now they aren't a playoff team? And let's not forget we are assuming they lose to South Dakota St that will probably be seeded in that scenario. If that's a close game, that's still an impressive showing.

Also, not sure if this will be taken into consideration but their beatdown of UND was back when UND wasn't completely destroyed by the injury bug. I think they are going to be left out for what the above comment says.


also I read the “it’s in the guidelines” comment in a Pirates of the Caribbean voice

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I just don't see how you can keep out multiple teams who are 9-2. SOS may be so-so but McNeese, Nicholls, Kennesaw/Monmouth are going to be hard to keep out.

xlolx Oh, that's rich.

[UNHWildcat18]

xlolx Oh, that's rich.

oh the 10-1 2012 Mountain Hawks, still makes me laugh

[mvemjsunpx]

At 7-4 with the projected 3rd toughest schedule in the country and a FBS win? USD should be a lock.

Momentum is always a factor in these selections. South Dakota's momentum is zilch right now. The fact they got blown out by NDSU & didn't just lose really hurts them.

[katss07]

Momentum is always a factor in these selections. South Dakota's momentum is zilch right now. The fact they got blown out by NDSU & didn't just lose really hurts them.

Yes, plus USD has lost 4 out of the last 5. They haven’t been playing good at all. They are lucky they played so well early.

[kalm]

Albany was 3-3 and had two straight losses. Some voters said they should still be ranked and I objected to that. They've lost four games straight since.

Youngstown State was 3-4 a couple weeks later. similar story.

My point in both cases was that if they were going to rally, it would take weeks to do so (and FWIW the voters agreed with me the next day, not Rob)

Every week we keep a suboptimal team in the field it hurts the chances of another team to climb the rankings and make noise. A 3 or 4 loss team shouldn't be ranked until the final 2-3 weeks of the season so defending one being ranked at the halfway point is a farce.

In contrast, Furman was probably like 5-3 at the time of Youngstown. They had won 5 straight. see the difference?

This was a sub-discussion about Furman not rising fast enough for you within the context of YSU and Albany not falling fast enough.

You stated the latter two started the season with 3 losses. They didn't. They started the season 3-1. You know who DID start the season with 3 losses...followed by 4 straight wins to teams that were a combined 12-29.

That's about the time you'd see Furmans rise in votes begin to intersect with YSU and Albany's fall.

YSU and Albany's fall coincided with 6 games against ranked opponents. Imagine that? Furman's schedule gets easier and they build wins. The other teams' schedule gets harder and they start to lose!

As you acknowledged (thank you), the Socon OOC is weak. Name the top 3 best OOC wins this season? How is a voter supposed to know the quality of the best wins from any Socon team when they all come from within the conference?

That's when you begin citing tradition and Socon performance going back decades.

This is Why Furman's rise was too slow for you and why Wofford's seeding position is understandably questioned.

[caribbeanhen]

Number of teams from one conference is a non starter. It's in the guidelines. USD's resume stands alone whether another 7-4 MVFC team is in or not. Like I said they will hold the projected #3 toughest schedule in the country. Two of their losses they were definitely in the game to teams that are borderline playoff teams. They were getting #1 votes not too long ago, and now they aren't a playoff team? And let's not forget we are assuming they lose to South Dakota St that will probably be seeded in that scenario. If that's a close game, that's still an impressive showing.

Also, not sure if this will be taken into consideration but their beatdown of UND was back when UND wasn't completely destroyed by the injury bug.

this is typical Missouri Valley football conference Kool-Aid talk South Dakota should be preparing for a long cold dark and lonely winter

[Professor Chaos]

Momentum is always a factor in these selections. South Dakota's momentum is zilch right now. The fact they got blown out by NDSU & didn't just lose really hurts them.
It is and should be to a certain extent but I think there's too much weight put behind late season losses and especially late season losing streaks. USD can't control the fact that the MVFC schedule makers had them finish their season @UNI, @NDSU, and vs SDSU. Those teams are a combined 12-3 in the last 5 weeks and all 3 losses are to each other.

I do think that getting blown out in consecutive games to end the season is a bad look so if USD loses to SDSU like they lost to UNI (holding a lead with just over 3 minutes left in the game) rather than like how they lost to NDSU (down 28 at the start of the 4th) they'll be in a lot better shape than if they get blown out again. I get the feeling they'll stick with SDSU (and maybe even win) with it being at home and a rivalry game.

[NDSUtk]

This was a sub-discussion about Furman not rising fast enough for you within the context of YSU and Albany not falling fast enough.

You stated the latter two started the season with 3 losses. They didn't. They started the season 3-1. You know who DID start the season with 3 losses...followed by 4 straight wins to teams that were a combined 12-29.

That's about the time you'd see Furmans rise in votes begin to intersect with YSU and Albany's fall.

YSU and Albany's fall coincided with 6 games against ranked opponents. Imagine that? Furman's schedule gets easier and they build wins. The other teams' schedule gets harder and they start to lose!

As you acknowledged (thank you), the Socon OOC is weak. Name the top 3 best OOC wins this season? How is a voter supposed to know the quality of the best wins from any Socon team when they all come from within the conference?

That's when you begin citing tradition and Socon performance going back decades.

This is Why Furman's rise was too slow for you and why Wofford's seeding position is understandably questioned.Wait, that's not fair. You didn't blame the computers.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

[clenz]

This was a sub-discussion about Furman not rising fast enough for you within the context of YSU and Albany not falling fast enough.

You stated the latter two started the season with 3 losses. They didn't. They started the season 3-1. You know who DID start the season with 3 losses...followed by 4 straight wins to teams that were a combined 12-29.

That's about the time you'd see Furmans rise in votes begin to intersect with YSU and Albany's fall.

YSU and Albany's fall coincided with 6 games against ranked opponents. Imagine that? Furman's schedule gets easier and they build wins. The other teams' schedule gets harder and they start to lose!

As you acknowledged (thank you), the Socon OOC is weak. Name the top 3 best OOC wins this season? How is a voter supposed to know the quality of the best wins from any Socon team when they all come from within the conference?

That's when you begin citing tradition and Socon performance going back decades.

This is Why Furman's rise was too slow for you and why Wofford's seeding position is understandably questioned.
Furman's wins were, in order:
Colgate - the PL is a disaster
ETSU - still a pretty new program and 3 of their 4 wins are a NAIA, partial scholarship RMU and 0 win VMI
Chatty - just a dumpster fire whose only win at this point in the year was winless VMI
VMI - winless to this day
Mercer - must like ETSU still a newer program and had wins against Chatty, The Citadel, VMI and PFL Jacksonville
WCU - solid win, I can grant that
The Citadel - 4-5 vs D1, will finish 4-6 vs D1 wins were VMI, Chatty, Presby and ETSU

There's 1 good win there and the rest is just beating the cirlce of suck. Sure, call it "Beating up on each other". That only works if everyone is beating everyone. What the SoCon has this year - and SLC to be honest - is the teams at the top of the standings aren't really beating each other. They are beating the same circle of suck of the bottom of the conference who only beat each other. There aren't any middle of the pack teams that have the ability to reach up and snag the top of the conference.

This is why the SLC will have 4 9+ win teams. That conference is 13 teams deep and at least 9 of them are just pure trash that wouldn't be good at the D2/D3 level.


That's why Furman's "rise has taken so long". A good voter will look at their schedule and go "Yeah a win is a win but not all wins are equal." It's why YSU took so long to fall. I've long lead the YSU isn't that good train this year. Seriously, I can pull posts from early October on that. YSU's wins are also garbage wins. YSU isn't a playoff team. They don't have what it takes to beat playoff teams. Period. Having said that they probably aren't far off. 7 point loss at FBS Pitt, 3 point loss at South Dakota, 3 point loss to North Dakota State, 5 point loss to Northern Iowa and then Illinois State was a very bad loss but it was the 4th loss in a row and I think the snowball had finally become an avalanche at that point for them. Before that they had beaten South Dakota State by 2 TDs to move to 3-1

So yes, a YSU team that was in the title game last year and was 3-1 coming off a drubbing of South Dakota State losing games to top 5-10 ranked teams by 1 field goal isn't going to drop real far real fast.

Meanwhile Furman played 3 good teams early in the year and lost all of them. I can say the exact same thing for Furman that I can YSU. They can't beat good, playoff quality teams, but they can beat up on those that are definitely worse than them. Furman currently has 2 wins over teams that are over .500 or will finish the season over .500. Those teams are Colgate who is 6-4 (and has zero wins over teams with a record over .500) and Western Carolina at 7-4 (who has just 1 win over teams that will finish the year over .500)


Side note - Wofford will finish the season having just 3 wins over teams that will be over .500 (Furman, WCU and Samford). Wofford's SOS should be questioned exactly the same as SHSU's is...Wofford is 58th in SOS, SHSU is 61. They played an almost identical strength of schedule

Sure, hindsight a month and a half later? Easy peasey to look at where they eneded up and go "THEY SHOULD HAVE DROPPED FASTER" and throw your little temper tantrum.



I don't think USD should make the playoffs at 7-4. I've been leading that train for 3 weeks now. Their resume is just as weak as Furman, YSU, and WCU. If UNI, ISUr and USD all finish at 7-4 USD 100% should not be in the playoffs but UNI and ISUr should. Even if it's just UNI and USD that finish at 7-4 I don't think USD should be in the playoffs.

[Professor Chaos]

I don't think USD should make the playoffs at 7-4. I've been leading that train for 3 weeks now. Their resume is just as weak as Furman, YSU, and WCU. If UNI, ISUr and USD all finish at 7-4 USD 100% should not be in the playoffs but UNI and ISUr should. Even if it's just UNI and USD that finish at 7-4 I don't think USD should be in the playoffs.
So you think a 9-2 Nicholls/McNeese/Kennesaw/Monmouth should be in over a 7-4 USD? That's likely what it boils down to.

[clenz]

After posting secondary thought:

It's pretty silly to slam computers as being horrible things and then admit that, as a voter, you don't actually watch games. You simply look at stats and final scores (which can be extremely misleading). Computers certainly aren't the gospel, but they shed a ton of light in a bunch of areas.

There are a number of voters that watch a ton of games. They might not watch the full game of every game but because of the internet a voter (should they want too) can dedicate a few hours Saturday night/Sunday to picking 15-20 games and watching a pretty good chunk of it. Once you take commericals, half time, and between plays out, football games are only about 12 minutes of action. ESPN3 lets you skip 5-10 seconds at a time by hitting the right arrow. I've been able to rewatch full games on ESPN3 in 20 minutes. If a voter really wanted too they could really watch a ton of football in a weekend. You can stream up to 4 games on ESPN3 at a time. Multiple devices, etc... Are you 100% getting every second of every game? Nah. Does it give the voter the ability to get enough to "eye test" a team and then reference that eye test vs a computer model? Absolutely.

I haven't this year but in past years voting I would watch every single game I could get a stream/replay of from the top 3 to 5 teams of each conference (number was adjusted based on conference strength and who I was trying to watch for in the top 25). Yes, it took time. I had that time. It was fantastic. I don't have that kind of time now. I have a 4.5 year old and just turned 2 year old and I'm in grad school. My weekends are spent at trampoline parks, youth sporting things, Disney on Ice, playing with my kids, etc... I still find a way to catch bits and pieces of a bunch of games at night to check my gut vs a computer vs an eye test. It's why I vote on Monday mornings. It gives me Saturday and Sunday to catch up on games.

[katss07]

So you think a 9-2 Nicholls/McNeese/Kennesaw/Monmouth should be in over a 7-4 USD? That's likely what it boils down to.
USD should be in over all those teams except for Nicholls and the Big South Champion. The resume of the Coyotes gives them an edge, although the big loss this weekend doesn’t help. If it comes down to McNeese, Monmouth/Kennesaw, and USD, USD should get in.

[Professor Chaos]

USD should be in over all those teams except for Nicholls and the Big South Champion. The resume of the Coyotes gives them an edge, although the big loss this weekend doesn’t help. If it comes down to McNeese, Monmouth/Kennesaw, and USD, USD should get in.
I could be on board with that. The Big South champ is obviously in as the auto but the loser will be 9-2 along with McNeese and Nicholls (as long as they both win). USD has clearly the best win of anyone in that group with their win over WIU. Of those 9-2 teams Nicholls win over McNeese is the best but I'd put that about on par with USD's win over Bowling Green. But USD would also have 4 FCS losses which has to hurt them some too no matter how good the teams they lost to were.

[clenz]

I could be on board with that. The Big South champ is obviously in as the auto but the loser will be 9-2 along with McNeese and Nicholls (as long as they both win). USD has clearly the best win of anyone in that group with their win over WIU. Of those 9-2 teams Nicholls win over McNeese is the best but I'd put that about on par with USD's win over Bowling Green. But USD would also have 4 FCS losses which has to hurt them some too no matter how good the teams they lost to were.
I can argue both ways on that.

USD's SoS and WIU win are superior.
USD, at 7-4, won't have shown the ability to beat playoff teams though as it'll have been over 2 months since their only good win.

I...just...I struggle to consider that a playoff team, but I guess when the option is another SLC team I don't have an issue with them in?

[nevadagriz]

So you think a 9-2 Nicholls/McNeese/Kennesaw/Monmouth should be in over a 7-4 USD? That's likely what it boils down to.

Very interesting scenario. USD has by far the toughest schedule however a few points.
1. at 7-4 they would be on 3 game losing streak no?
2. at what point do you look at winning games vs good loses or loses to good teams?
3. at 9-2 teams went out and got the job done against the teams on their schedule.

7-4 Ewu is in same boat at some point a team has to win games to be rewarded no matter their schedule.

[clenz]

Very interesting scenario. USD has by far the toughest schedule however a few points.
1. at 7-4 they would be on 3 game losing streak no?
2. at what point do you look at winning games vs good loses or loses to good teams?
3. at 9-2 teams went out and got the job done against the teams on their schedule.

7-4 Ewu is in same boat at some point a team has to win games to be rewarded no matter their schedule.
This is my struggle with USD.

They'll have lost 3 in a row and 4 of their last 5.

Their wins are...plus likely outcome of this weeks games
2-9 FBS Bowling Green - I can't give them any extra credit for that
3-8 UND
6-5 non-scholarship Drake who hasn't won a game vs a D1 team with any kind of scholarships and has a sub D1 win
6-5 Youngstown State who finishes 7th in the MVFC
0-11 Indiana State who finishes 10th in the MVFC
4-7 Southern Illinois who finishes 9th in the MVFC
8-3 WIU who finishes 4th in the MVFC

There is 1 good win there - the first weekend of conference play over 2 months ago by the time the playoffs hit
There is 1 "meh" win there - over a team who I could do this exact same breakdown for - in YSU
Then garbage.

At some point there is something to be said for winning games.

Now, if USD played Nicholls schedule they'd probably be 9-2 as well but I'm not sure Nicholls would be 7-4 with USD's schedule.


I think EWU at 7-4 and USD at 7-4 are pretty mirror images. EWU looked bad to start the year. No real good wins, though Montana with a win this week becomes a good win. Not quite WIU but still a good win.

Blow out loss to a top conference team (NDSU/USD) in SUU.
Closer loss to another top conference team (UNI/USD) in WSU.
Beat the bottom of the conference

The thing that would give me pause on EWU is what is their suspension status going to look like. Maybe it shouldn't play a factor but Gubrud being out still would have me lean towards out. Maybe that's wrong of me.

[Reign of Terrier]

This was a sub-discussion about Furman not rising fast enough for you within the context of YSU and Albany not falling fast enough.

You stated the latter two started the season with 3 losses. They didn't. They started the season 3-1. You know who DID start the season with 3 losses...followed by 4 straight wins to teams that were a combined 12-29.

That's about the time you'd see Furmans rise in votes begin to intersect with YSU and Albany's fall.

YSU and Albany's fall coincided with 6 games against ranked opponents. Imagine that? Furman's schedule gets easier and they build wins. The other teams' schedule gets harder and they start to lose!

As you acknowledged (thank you), the Socon OOC is weak. Name the top 3 best OOC wins this season? How is a voter supposed to know the quality of the best wins from any Socon team when they all come from within the conference?

That's when you begin citing tradition and Socon performance going back decades.

This is Why Furman's rise was too slow for you and why Wofford's seeding position is understandably questioned.

Look, I misspoke/mistyped when I said that Albany/YSU started with 3 losses. If you go back to the actual threads in which this was discussed you'll see my argument a little more saliently. I feel like I'm being grilled right now for one communication breakdown, but not the principle of the thing. Mathematically, if you have 3 losses in the middle season, you have a 50-50 chance of finishing with a losing record or finishing 7-4/8-3. People ranking teams based upon a hypothesis of how they may finish and not how they are currently performing slows down the process by which the rankings can be accurate reflections of how good the teams are, and put in a route for more homers (it makes me face palm whenever a team with a losing record was ranked at one point and someone points to that as being a quality win)

It's also worth mentioning that Wofford last year wasn't ranked until like the second to last week of the season in spite of having 2 close losses to teams that were ranked midway through the season. And I'm sure there are other examples. Can you at least admit that it's harder for teams to climb rankings than it is for them to fall?


Furman's wins were, in order:
Colgate - the PL is a disaster
ETSU - still a pretty new program and 3 of their 4 wins are a NAIA, partial scholarship RMU and 0 win VMI
Chatty - just a dumpster fire whose only win at this point in the year was winless VMI
VMI - winless to this day
Mercer - must like ETSU still a newer program and had wins against Chatty, The Citadel, VMI and PFL Jacksonville
WCU - solid win, I can grant that
The Citadel - 4-5 vs D1, will finish 4-6 vs D1 wins were VMI, Chatty, Presby and ETSU

There's 1 good win there and the rest is just beating the cirlce of suck. Sure, call it "Beating up on each other". That only works if everyone is beating everyone. What the SoCon has this year - and SLC to be honest - is the teams at the top of the standings aren't really beating each other. They are beating the same circle of suck of the bottom of the conference who only beat each other. There aren't any middle of the pack teams that have the ability to reach up and snag the top of the conference.

This is why the SLC will have 4 9+ win teams. That conference is 13 teams deep and at least 9 of them are just pure trash that wouldn't be good at the D2/D3 level.


That's why Furman's "rise has taken so long". A good voter will look at their schedule and go "Yeah a win is a win but not all wins are equal." It's why YSU took so long to fall. I've long lead the YSU isn't that good train this year. Seriously, I can pull posts from early October on that. YSU's wins are also garbage wins. YSU isn't a playoff team. They don't have what it takes to beat playoff teams. Period. Having said that they probably aren't far off. 7 point loss at FBS Pitt, 3 point loss at South Dakota, 3 point loss to North Dakota State, 5 point loss to Northern Iowa and then Illinois State was a very bad loss but it was the 4th loss in a row and I think the snowball had finally become an avalanche at that point for them. Before that they had beaten South Dakota State by 2 TDs to move to 3-1

So yes, a YSU team that was in the title game last year and was 3-1 coming off a drubbing of South Dakota State losing games to top 5-10 ranked teams by 1 field goal isn't going to drop real far real fast.

Meanwhile Furman played 3 good teams early in the year and lost all of them. I can say the exact same thing for Furman that I can YSU. They can't beat good, playoff quality teams, but they can beat up on those that are definitely worse than them. Furman currently has 2 wins over teams that are over .500 or will finish the season over .500. Those teams are Colgate who is 6-4 (and has zero wins over teams with a record over .500) and Western Carolina at 7-4 (who has just 1 win over teams that will finish the year over .500)


Side note - Wofford will finish the season having just 3 wins over teams that will be over .500 (Furman, WCU and Samford). Wofford's SOS should be questioned exactly the same as SHSU's is...Wofford is 58th in SOS, SHSU is 61. They played an almost identical strength of schedule

Sure, hindsight a month and a half later? Easy peasey to look at where they eneded up and go "THEY SHOULD HAVE DROPPED FASTER" and throw your little temper tantrum.



I don't think USD should make the playoffs at 7-4. I've been leading that train for 3 weeks now. Their resume is just as weak as Furman, YSU, and WCU. If UNI, ISUr and USD all finish at 7-4 USD 100% should not be in the playoffs but UNI and ISUr should. Even if it's just UNI and USD that finish at 7-4 I don't think USD should be in the playoffs.

My point at the time was that Furman had beaten those teams by 20-30 points every time. It's not just the SOS it's the way you win with that schedule. Because in some ways teams on the field can't help how the front office scheduled, but when you win like Furman did and you had a couple quality losses I feel like it's a double standard compared to the MVFC.

On a sidenote, I don't think how many teams with a winning record is a reliable predictor for teams in power conferences (CAA, MVFC, Big Sky, Southern and even Jacksonville State). There are plenty of examples of teams who had beaten 1-2 teams with a winning record and then continued to go on a run in the playoffs (I'm sure Charleston Southern a couple years ago did, at least one Jacksonville State team, wofford last year, and there's probably others). That's not to say that it's unimportant or "lol nothing matters" just that it's any easy criticism to levy on a lot of teams and it's not always a legit criticism because if you expand out, lots of teams haven't beaten teams with winning record


After posting secondary thought:

It's pretty silly to slam computers as being horrible things and then admit that, as a voter, you don't actually watch games. You simply look at stats and final scores (which can be extremely misleading). Computers certainly aren't the gospel, but they shed a ton of light in a bunch of areas.

There are a number of voters that watch a ton of games. They might not watch the full game of every game but because of the internet a voter (should they want too) can dedicate a few hours Saturday night/Sunday to picking 15-20 games and watching a pretty good chunk of it. Once you take commericals, half time, and between plays out, football games are only about 12 minutes of action. ESPN3 lets you skip 5-10 seconds at a time by hitting the right arrow. I've been able to rewatch full games on ESPN3 in 20 minutes. If a voter really wanted too they could really watch a ton of football in a weekend. You can stream up to 4 games on ESPN3 at a time. Multiple devices, etc... Are you 100% getting every second of every game? Nah. Does it give the voter the ability to get enough to "eye test" a team and then reference that eye test vs a computer model? Absolutely.

I haven't this year but in past years voting I would watch every single game I could get a stream/replay of from the top 3 to 5 teams of each conference (number was adjusted based on conference strength and who I was trying to watch for in the top 25). Yes, it took time. I had that time. It was fantastic. I don't have that kind of time now. I have a 4.5 year old and just turned 2 year old and I'm in grad school. My weekends are spent at trampoline parks, youth sporting things, Disney on Ice, playing with my kids, etc... I still find a way to catch bits and pieces of a bunch of games at night to check my gut vs a computer vs an eye test. It's why I vote on Monday mornings. It gives me Saturday and Sunday to catch up on games.

1) I'm not a voter, just a concerned FCS citizen :D

2) I don't think computers are horrible, I think they just have more limited use than many think, given how football works (I've talked about it at length in other threads). I think computers are helpful when we're trying to weight between a 7-4 South Dakota team and a 9-2 Monmouth team, but they are less helpful for figuring out how much better via rankings the second best team in every conference is.

3) When I look at stats, I'm not looking at the yardage, I'm looking at various things like efficiency on both sides of the ball, put in the context of the pace of the game. I also look at different things like youth, coaching philosophy, common tactics when a team gets upset, etc. I also listen to the posters who do watch the game and take into my analysis. I'm not a perfect authority on anything, but I think we overinvest in watching games for watching games sake.

4) I think the eye test bit is a good point of expansion. I think many voters overweigh the eye-test and others over-weigh the computers. Ironically I think many people think I'm an eye test person (which is funny because I admittedly don't watch the games that much), but I think you need both. The computers and stats can take you 75% of the way there, but that other 25% is helpful. For instance, the 75% can tell you "they like to pass on third down" but what specificly they like to do when passing is something for the film.

I think it's hard, if not impossible to get that 100% of insight with 30ish teams, so I don't try. I stick to the Socon (and even then I'm not 100% on many teams in it) and go 75% for the other teams. Football is also a volital game in which turnovers and mistakes weight more than you'd think on the outcome and can sometimes swing that margin of error in the other direction. So 75% I'm comfortable with.

5) I'm not doubting of your knowledge (heck, even though you're weirdly one of the most aggressive posters on here, I think you're top 3 most insightful) or the knowledge of many posters on here. I just think we can only get about 80% certain about any one thing involving FCS football (I'd say it's 90-95% in FBS football for different reasons), and that 20% weighs more than we think. It's a cognitive bias that everyone has: we assume we are more knowledgeable than we are.

On here I see a lot of certainty about the MVFC being great compared to the top-tier in other conferences (which is probably true) and I'm seeing this "well I watch a lot of FCS football" reasoning thrown around, when fans from other conferences are missing the mark big time in the Socon, because the league is much more competitive than it was 2 years ago. For example, everyone is saying Furman's win against the Citadel is quality, but really the win against Mercer told us a lot more like a month ago.

I'm not going to pretend my insight is better than anyone else's for the overall FCS (it isn't), but I feel like I'm getting grilled disproportionately for disagreeing with some posters from the MVFC on points that aren't as certain as they think. Like I'm fine with banter and **** but being called an entitled little bitch for a conversation that took place a minimum of 5 years ago is a little over the line in my book.

[kalm]

This is my struggle with USD.

They'll have lost 3 in a row and 4 of their last 5.

Their wins are...plus likely outcome of this weeks games
2-9 FBS Bowling Green - I can't give them any extra credit for that
3-8 UND
6-5 non-scholarship Drake who hasn't won a game vs a D1 team with any kind of scholarships and has a sub D1 win
6-5 Youngstown State who finishes 7th in the MVFC
0-11 Indiana State who finishes 10th in the MVFC
4-7 Southern Illinois who finishes 9th in the MVFC
8-3 WIU who finishes 4th in the MVFC

There is 1 good win there - the first weekend of conference play over 2 months ago by the time the playoffs hit
There is 1 "meh" win there - over a team who I could do this exact same breakdown for - in YSU
Then garbage.

At some point there is something to be said for winning games.

Now, if USD played Nicholls schedule they'd probably be 9-2 as well but I'm not sure Nicholls would be 7-4 with USD's schedule.


I think EWU at 7-4 and USD at 7-4 are pretty mirror images. EWU looked bad to start the year. No real good wins, though Montana with a win this week becomes a good win. Not quite WIU but still a good win.

Blow out loss to a top conference team (NDSU/USD) in SUU.
Closer loss to another top conference team (UNI/USD) in WSU.
Beat the bottom of the conference

The thing that would give me pause on EWU is what is their suspension status going to look like. Maybe it shouldn't play a factor but Gubrud being out still would have me lean towards out. Maybe that's wrong of me.

Yes, at some point you have to win enough games and that's the question...at what point do wins surpass schedule strength. That's why I started the W/L vs. SoS thread. If an 8-3 Montana deserves to be in over a 9-2 SLC or Big South #2 can't you make the same argument for EWU being in over Montana?

Your "beat the bottom of the conference" meme regarding EWU is incorrect. EWU and Montana will be 3-1 against shared opponents with EWU winning the head to head. Replace EWU's loss to NDSU with a win over Savannah State or Valpo and consider EWU's other conference wins are against a 5-5 or 6-5 Davis and a 6-5 or 7-4 Sac (who could finish 6-2 in conference). Montana's two other conference wins would be against a likely 4-7 ISU and 3-7 or 2-8 UNC who will have at most 5 conference wins between them.

Of course it's not just about comparing EWU and Montana. Other than UNI and WIU I don't think any 7-4's are safe. The committee has denied 9-2 teams with weak schedules before. Will they do it this time and if so, how many?

[ST_Lawson]

8-3 WIU who finishes 4th in the MVFC

There is 1 good win there - the first weekend of conference play over 2 months ago by the time the playoffs hit.

That one really pisses me off too. We had all the momentum, driving down the field, down by 5. We were like 60 seconds away from winning the game, but there were 34 seconds on the clock. It's our fault for spotting them so many first half points, I know, but I also know that it was very much a winnable game for us. And that was back when USD was good and pretty much everyone at 100%.

You probably feel the same way about your UNI's game with us though.

[Professor Chaos]

That one really pisses me off too. We had all the momentum, driving down the field, down by 5. We were like 60 seconds away from winning the game, but there were 34 seconds on the clock. It's our fault for spotting them so many first half points, I know, but I also know that it was very much a winnable game for us. And that was back when USD was good and pretty much everyone at 100%.

You probably feel the same way about your UNI's game with us though.
I still remember on USD's last TD drive they fumbled twice deep in WIU territory and the 2nd one resulted in a fumble recovery TD for one of their O-lineman I believe.

At the time it just seemed like a "oh well, that's the type of day it's been for both teams" moment because I think that put USD up 38-6 or something like that but that lucky bounce on the fumble recovery turned out to be the TD that made the difference.

[ST_Lawson]

I still remember on USD's last TD drive they fumbled twice deep in WIU territory and the 2nd one resulted in a fumble recovery TD for one of their O-lineman I believe.

At the time it just seemed like a "oh well, that's the type of day it's been for both teams" moment because I think that put USD up 38-6 or something like that but that lucky bounce on the fumble recovery turned out to be the TD that made the difference.

Yea, just one of those games where one or two "lucky bounces" would have made the difference. Didn't go our way against USD, did go our way against UNI. Just how the game is played, unfortunately. Last year USD had a fumble on like...the .2 yard line (inches from the goal line...would have been a TD for them)...we recovered it and, I believe, drove all the way down the field for a TD. Won that game by a single point.

[katss07]

USD is a playoff team to me. They have won enough games and are a decent MVFC team. They took down one more playoff team and beat YSU. Sure, they haven’t really done much outside of the WIU win and they have lost 4 of 5, but if ISUr made it last year at 6 wins then USD should make it here. It will be interesting to see who pairs with them in round one. Maybe a Southland team? Nicholls?

[clenz]

That one really pisses me off too. We had all the momentum, driving down the field, down by 5. We were like 60 seconds away from winning the game, but there were 34 seconds on the clock. It's our fault for spotting them so many first half points, I know, but I also know that it was very much a winnable game for us. And that was back when USD was good and pretty much everyone at 100%.

You probably feel the same way about your UNI's game with us though.
Yeah....nothing like leading a game with 7 seconds left and losing by 9.....

UNI would be co-MVFC champions had we avoided going full dip**** prevent for that last 57 seconds.
UNI would be 8-3
UNI would be ranked in the top 6
UNI would be a freaking seed.

Instead we get to hope our AD bid, hope we don't get matched up with someone that outbid us and then pray we don't get send to SDSU or NDSU.

[nevadagriz]

Yes, at some point you have to win enough games and that's the question...at what point do wins surpass schedule strength. That's why I started the W/L vs. SoS thread. If an 8-3 Montana deserves to be in over a 9-2 SLC or Big South #2 can't you make the same argument for EWU being in over Montana?

Your "beat the bottom of the conference" meme regarding EWU is incorrect. EWU and Montana will be 3-1 against shared opponents with EWU winning the head to head. Replace EWU's loss to NDSU with a win over Savannah State or Valpo and consider EWU's other conference wins are against a 5-5 or 6-5 Davis and a 6-5 or 7-4 Sac (who could finish 6-2 in conference). Montana's two other conference wins would be against a likely 4-7 ISU and 3-7 or 2-8 UNC who will have at most 5 conference wins between them.

Of course it's not just about comparing EWU and Montana. Other than UNI and WIU I don't think any 7-4's are safe. The committee has denied 9-2 teams with weak schedules before. Will they do it this time and if so, how many?

I would guess 7-4 vs 8-3 would be the difference. This year is crazy any other year as a Griz fan I would be celebrating Montana making the playoffs this week with their 7th win. This year I'm nervous even if they get an 8th win.

[Professor Chaos]

Yeah....nothing like leading a game with 7 seconds left and losing by 9.....

UNI would be co-MVFC champions had we avoided going full dip**** prevent for that last 57 seconds.
UNI would be 8-3
UNI would be ranked in the top 6
UNI would be a freaking seed.

Instead we get to hope our AD bid, hope we don't get matched up with someone that outbid us and then pray we don't get send to SDSU or NDSU.
Where would UNI be if USD hadn't turned it over twice in the last 3 minutes of their game? ;)

[clenz]

Where would UNI be if USD hadn't turned it over twice in the last 3 minutes of their game? ;)
UNI forced those three 4th quarter

They baited Streveler into throwing on the run across his body into a double zone coverage.
The fumble was a full blown decleating that UNI laid on the USD ball carrier
The pick 6 was bracket coverage and forced Streveler into his 4th read. It was something like his 67th drop back on the day, after dropping back 70+ times vs ISUr the week before, and running for his life in both games.

Sure, we can start playing what if situations all day.

The difference between the WIU and USD game is against WIU Farley put UNI into full blow quarters prevent. Deep 4 25+ yards down fieldNothing behind. The underneath guys at 15 yards. No trying to make a play on the ball. Let them catch and stop them at that spot. Against USD Farley kept at least token pressure applied. Went to a more aggressive coverage. Played a bracket coverage with a single safety spying Steveler's eyes. UNI forced USD into those plays. UNI didn't force WIU to do anything, which WIU went "Yep...we're gonna score on that ****" and they did.

[Professor Chaos]

UNI forced those three 4th quarter

They baited Streveler into throwing on the run across his body into a double zone coverage.
The fumble was a full blown decleating that UNI laid on the USD ball carrier
The pick 6 was bracket coverage and forced Streveler into his 4th read. It was something like his 67th drop back on the day, after dropping back 70+ times vs ISUr the week before, and running for his life in both games.

Sure, we can start playing what if situations all day.

The difference between the WIU and USD game is against WIU Farley put UNI into full blow quarters prevent. Deep 4 25+ yards down fieldNothing behind. The underneath guys at 15 yards. No trying to make a play on the ball. Let them catch and stop them at that spot. Against USD Farley kept at least token pressure applied. Went to a more aggressive coverage. Played a bracket coverage with a single safety spying Steveler's eyes. UNI forced USD into those plays. UNI didn't force WIU to do anything, which WIU went "Yep...we're gonna score on that ****" and they did.
I know, I'm just saying it's like poker when it comes to the "coulda-woulda-shoulda" scenarios with most college football fans. We remember in vivid detail the "bad beats" that are put on us/our team but the bad beats given out by us/our team aren't really mentioned or kept in the memory banks. I'm just as guilty of it.

[kalm]

I would guess 7-4 vs 8-3 would be the difference. This year is crazy any other year as a Griz fan I would be celebrating Montana making the playoffs this week with their 7th win. This year I'm nervous even if they get an 8th win.

So the extra win against a weaker schedule matters between 7-4 and 8-3 but not between 8-3 and 9-2? ;)

[gofurman]

So you're comparing the Socon to the Pioneer in one breath and in the next calling us tier one. You did that in this thread too.

I'm just pointing out the inconsistency. You can't be a conference champion with one loss from a Tier 1 conference and not earn a seed.

By your logic, the only teams conclusively worthy of a seed are from the MVFC, JMU, Central Arkansas by virtue of being undefeated in FCS.

You're almost literally saying "I will only give the benefit of the doubt to a team that doesn't lose that isn't in the MVFC"

That's being a homer, point blank.

- - - Updated - - -



Furman's margin of victory is much higher. I wouldn't say it's unworthy, but if they lose this week and are still above us, that's another notch under "bad computer rankings"

the point up above about computer rankings doesn't undermine computer rankings. Cmon guys. Regardless this week v Samford, right now Furman is killing teams Wofford escaped. That's not an insult to Woff at all, just a numeric fact. In fact, the computers have furman ranked higher for a valid reason. Just because a team won a one point game shouldn't carry all the weight. You guys are smart. This is Not about furman wofford. Just example of body of work - team A beats team B by a point. Team A loses 4 games. Team B loses 3 games and has a huge margin of victory plus has won 7 in a row. The case can be made team B is better. Again, not wofford furman- just ex. Head to head upsets happen all the time. Doesn't mean the winnin team should be ranked higher. If Mercer beat Bama should Mercer be in the CFP in FBS? No. Should Mercer be ranked above Bama ? No. Body of work.

[gofurman]

Furman's wins were, in order:
Colgate - the PL is a disaster
ETSU - still a pretty new program and 3 of their 4 wins are a NAIA, partial scholarship RMU and 0 win VMI
Chatty - just a dumpster fire whose only win at this point in the year was winless VMI
VMI - winless to this day
Mercer - must like ETSU still a newer program and had wins against Chatty, The Citadel, VMI and PFL Jacksonville
WCU - solid win, I can grant that
The Citadel - 4-5 vs D1, will finish 4-6 vs D1 wins were VMI, Chatty, Presby and ETSU

There's 1 good win there and the rest is just beating the cirlce of suck. Sure, call it "Beating up on each other". That only works if everyone is beating everyone. What the SoCon has this year - and SLC to be honest - is the teams at the top of the standings aren't really beating each other. They are beating the same circle of suck of the bottom of the conference who only beat each other. There aren't any middle of the pack teams that have the ability to reach up and snag the top of the conference.

This is why the SLC will have 4 9+ win teams. That conference is 13 teams deep and at least 9 of them are just pure trash that wouldn't be good at the D2/D3 level.


That's why Furman's "rise has taken so long". A good voter will look at their schedule and go "Yeah a win is a win but not all wins are equal." It's why YSU took so long to fall. I've long lead the YSU isn't that good train this year. Seriously, I can pull posts from early October on that. YSU's wins are also garbage wins. YSU isn't a playoff team. They don't have what it takes to beat playoff teams. Period. Having said that they probably aren't far off. 7 point loss at FBS Pitt, 3 point loss at South Dakota, 3 point loss to North Dakota State, 5 point loss to Northern Iowa and then Illinois State was a very bad loss but it was the 4th loss in a row and I think the snowball had finally become an avalanche at that point for them. Before that they had beaten South Dakota State by 2 TDs to move to 3-1

So yes, a YSU team that was in the title game last year and was 3-1 coming off a drubbing of South Dakota State losing games to top 5-10 ranked teams by 1 field goal isn't going to drop real far real fast.

Meanwhile Furman played 3 good teams early in the year and lost all of them. I can say the exact same thing for Furman that I can YSU. They can't beat good, playoff quality teams, but they can beat up on those that are definitely worse than them. Furman currently has 2 wins over teams that are over .500 or will finish the season over .500. Those teams are Colgate who is 6-4 (and has zero wins over teams with a record over .500) and Western Carolina at 7-4 (who has just 1 win over teams that will finish the year over .500)


Side note - Wofford will finish the season having just 3 wins over teams that will be over .500 (Furman, WCU and Samford). Wofford's SOS should be questioned exactly the same as SHSU's is...Wofford is 58th in SOS, SHSU is 61. They played an almost identical strength of schedule

Sure, hindsight a month and a half later? Easy peasey to look at where they eneded up and go "THEY SHOULD HAVE DROPPED FASTER" and throw your little temper tantrum.



I don't think USD should make the playoffs at 7-4. I've been leading that train for 3 weeks now. Their resume is just as weak as Furman, YSU, and WCU. If UNI, ISUr and USD all finish at 7-4 USD 100% should not be in the playoffs but UNI and ISUr should. Even if it's just UNI and USD that finish at 7-4 I don't think USD should be in the playoffs.

in those first three Furman losses is a one point loss to Wofford and a last second FG to Elon ...but to point to a loss to top 20 FBS NC State? PLEASE. No one should count that against Furman. NC state is nasty this year. Unlike day ECU who JMU played. I personally don't think you should count that loss at all. Ain't no one in FCS beating NC State. That should not count.

Also, this is circular. Part of the reason Furman - and many teams (I would say this for whomever) - have wins against .500 teams is BECAUSE WE BEAT THAT TEAM thus making them a .500 team. Mercer is 5-4 in FCS. They led Wofford by 13 w about 7 minutes left. They just decided to play Auburn AND Bama this year (Get money) thus forcing two losses ...

mercer also beat Western Carolina. So Mercer is pretty good.

UTC beat possible playoff Samford just a few weeks ago. So they are ok. Furman beat UTC by 30+ or so

also, we have to play who,is on our schedule. Can't help who is in Socon

also, Furman is on a seven game win streak. That's strong regardless. The committee says they look at margin of victory and how you are playing late in year. Even if we lose to Sam we have won 7 of 8 last games.

I am am a pretty objective fan. I think you are being a little harsh. That said, just curious who is your team? Isn't that the symbol for Mississippi valley state?

[katss07]

in those first three Furman losses is a one point loss to Wofford and a last second FG to Elon ...but to point to a loss to top 20 FBS NC State? PLEASE. No one should count that against Furman. NC state is nasty this year. Unlike day ECU who JMU played. I personally don't think you should count that loss at all. Ain't no one in FCS beating NC State. That should not count.

Also, this is circular. Part of the reason Furman - and many teams (I would say this for whomever) - have wins against .500 teams is BECAUSE WE BEAT THAT TEAM thus making them a .500 team. Mercer is 5-4 in FCS. They led Wofford by 13 w about 7 minutes left. They just decided to play Auburn AND Bama this year (Get money) thus forcing two losses ...

mercer also beat Western Carolina. So Mercer is pretty good.

UTC beat possible playoff Samford just a few weeks ago. So they are ok. Furman beat UTC by 30+ or so

also, we have to play who,is on our schedule. Can't help who is in Socon

also, Furman is on a seven game win streak. That's strong regardless. The committee says they look at margin of victory and how you are playing late in year. Even if we lose to Sam we have won 7 of 8 last games.

I am am a pretty objective fan. I think you are being a little harsh. That said, just curious who is your team? Isn't that the symbol for Mississippi valley state?

Ya lost me at “UTC is ok”. Have you seen that record? They are awful!

[Schism55]

The combined records of the teams Furman has beaten this year is 29-43...woof

[Reign of Terrier]

1)If Furman wins, they are clearly in.

2) Margin of victory can be misleading, as I think there's a diminishing point of return after like 3 touchdowns (the committee thinks as much). Unlike Wofford, Western and Samford (arguably the inconsistency and close win aspect of Wofford's is endemic on the entire Socon, we just focus on Wofford because they won the most games so far and were always at the front), Furman was consistent in what they do and hasn't let many teams bit them

3) there's a strong case to be made that Furman whallops teams that don't have their **** together and plays closer/technically less impressively. Enough Socon teams don't have it fully together on both sides of the ball where they can pulverize them (Citadel, Adam-less Western, ETSU, VMI, Chatt at the time they played--and probably still), while others have it enough to where they make it interesting (Wofford, Mercer and likely Samford). The issue is that one of those teams was the first game of the year, the other is the last game and the second one was like 3 weeks ago and has consistency problems as well (will finish 5-6, but had like 8 games close/leading in the fourth quarter). I buy the argument that Furman can carry their consistency and cruise to an almost easy win against Samford, but I also think it could be a close one they lose too. The only outcome that would surprise me would be a Samford win by multiple scores.
3a) Chattanooga did not have their **** together against Furman; they're going to be 2-8. No way of spinning that as a good win. Though I think their improvement can be demonstrated in the last month with OL play as indicative of rushing yards, you can't really spin a win against a 3-8 team as decent (which is why I don't even try with Wofford's 2OT win against chatt FWIW)

4) Point 3 does not take away from the impressiveness of what Furman's accomplished in their 7 game win streak. They are a good team, very consistent, etc etc. Combined record of opponents can be misleading, especially considering how crazy the Socon is this year

5) If they win Saturday, point 3 becomes irrelevant. They'll make the playoffs and they may well whallop a team or two, but anyone expecting any team outside of NDSU or JMU will whallop anyone is probably a homer

6) I say "whallop" a lot.

[Reign of Terrier]

Take out Chattanooga and VMI and the combined record of Furman's opponents is 27-24 FWIW

[Catbooster]

The combined records of the teams Furman has beaten this year is 29-43...woof
The combined records of the teams Montana has beaten this year is 23-47, yet they seem to be in the conversation

[Schism55]

The combined records of the teams Montana has beaten this year is 23-47, yet they seem to be in the conversation
Montana and Furman are in the same boat in my eyes; win and you are in the running for all the marbles, lose and the holiday eating binge gets started immediate style.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

The combined records of the teams Montana has beaten this year is 23-47, yet they seem to be in the conversation

I didn't think it was good but I had not looked at it closely when I was talking about my concerns with our possible 8-3 record the other day and my absolute dismissal of a 7-4 season being worthy of any sort of "OK, we'll take that!" sort of thing.

That is despicable as far as wins we can claim.

[Catbooster]

Yeah. I think if they lose to us the Griz are out of the discussion, even though they have 7 wins. If they win, I wouldn't be shocked if they get in the playoffs, even though I think EWU or NAU (with Cookus) would probably be a better rep for the Big Sky.

Keep in mind, 7 of those wins for UM come from NAU. Personally, I think NAU wins that game against the Griz if Cookus doesn't get ejected (and yes, I know UM was also handicapped by losing their starting QB for the game, but even if Gresch is playing IMO NAU wins with Cookus - but that's just my opinion).

[katss07]

Yeah. I think if they lose to us the Griz are out of the discussion, even though they have 7 wins. If they win, I wouldn't be shocked if they get in the playoffs, even though I think EWU or NAU (with Cookus) would probably be a better rep for the Big Sky.

Keep in mind, 7 of those wins for UM come from NAU. Personally, I think NAU wins that game against the Griz if Cookus doesn't get ejected (and yes, I know UM was also handicapped by losing their starting QB for the game, but even if Gresch is playing IMO NAU wins with Cookus - but that's just my opinion).

Montana will get in with a win because...
1. They will draw at least 20,000 in round one
2. They beat NAU

I think that attendance and program prestige plays a role here. Montana in the playoffs is good for FCS. 8 wins will put them in.

[caribbeanhen]

Coach Danny Rocco said on his radio show that it's no given that an 8-3 CAA team makes the playoffs this year, uh oh, he might be managing expectations because if an 8*-3 Delaware doesn't get in after a 6 season slump there will be people taking numbers on the Del memorial bridge for a turn

* One wounded a scraggly Cat with a new owner in the way of that 8 win mark

[Gangtackle11]

Coach Danny Rocco said on his radio show that it's no given that an 8-3 CAA team makes the playoffs this year, uh oh, he might be managing expectations because if an 8*-3 Delaware doesn't get in after a 6 season slump there will be people taking numbers on the Del memorial bridge for a turn

* One wounded a scraggly Cat with a new owner in the way of that 8 win mark

Nova is sending off 23 seniors prior to the game. Ferrante talked about the history of the game on his radio show. The 3 blocked punt game in ‘98. The 2013 game where Nova came back from 23 points (If I recall). The 2010 upset to get in to playoffs, etc.

We have a pop gun offense & I think the team is fragile. Playing for the seniors is great. Moving the ball is the question. xpeacex

[caribbeanhen]

Nova is sending off 23 seniors prior to the game. Ferrante talked about the history of the game on his radio show. The 3 blocked punt game in ‘98. The 2013 game where Nova came back from 23 points (If I recall). The 2010 upset to get in to playoffs, etc.

We have a pop gun offense & I think the team is fragile. Playing for the seniors is great. Moving the ball is the question. xpeacex

could you imagine a Nova Hen FCS championship game..... Eastern Washington got in the way of both our plans


Nova has owned the deed to Delaware Stadium for the last 10 years

When Talley walked out across the field one could here an old Stones tune wafting through the air "Under my thumb"

Thank goodness that song wont be playing this year

[gofurman]

Montana and Furman are in the same boat in my eyes; win and you are in the running for all the marbles, lose and the holiday eating binge gets started immediate style.

win and they are in.. but some bubbles are losing.. Nicholls maybe others making it easier for fu or Montana to get in w loss