FCS Playoff Field Prediction: 11/6/2017 (2 weeks to go)

[Lehigh Football Nation]

FCS Playoffs ‘Til I Die: Projecting the 2017 #FCSPlayoff Field, 11/6/2017

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/fcs-playoffs-til-i-die-projecting-the-2017-fcsplayoff-field-1162017/

[Seawolf97]

I like this bracket . We could face Colgate which is always a solid program . Could be a good game. If we advance I think we beat Elon .

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I like this bracket . We could face Colgate which is always a solid program . Could be a good game. If we advance I think we beat Elon .

Colgate would definitely be the best PL playoff rep. Lehigh still has the inside track but I still don't think their defense is good enough to win out....

[wcugrad95]

I like that WCU is in, but if they aren't a "last team in" why would they get sent to play a #9 seed (who is a "last team in") and if they somehow won that game turn to SDSU? His "last teams in" end up with #20, #18, #14, and #9 seeds. I guess he is trying to project regionalization, but if WCU is "in" and Samford is a last team in, I'd switch the 2 of them. Samford would be one of those last teams I am assuming because he projects them to lose to Furman (having them as a #10) - meaning Samford would be a 7-win team getting a higher seed, more favorable matchup, and potential closer second-round matchup than an 8-win WCU team. I hope all 4 SoCon teams get in, but I think WCU has to get to 8 wins and Samford actually has to beat Furman for that to happen.

[JimmyJack]

Bonus of USD being good: Maybe somebody other than SDSU gets the playoff trip to Fargo this year.

[grizband]

If Southern Utah finishes at 9-2, I imagine they would be in the running for a seed. Pretty decent crack at it; looking forward to seeing how the last two weeks turn out!

[TheKingpin28]

Bonus of USD being good: Maybe somebody other than SDSU gets the playoff trip to Fargo this year.

No...

The ratings are too big to pass up and the committee proved it last year when they could have sent you to UND, but they sent you to Fargo instead. If both teams get seeded, they will find a way to make it a 2/7 or 3/6 match-up to ensure that game happens again. Last year set an all-time FCS record and it had 1.98 million people watch it and no reason to believe they couldn't get 1.5-2.0 million again after how the Marker game played out.

[grizband]

No...

The ratings are too big to pass up and the committee proved it last year when they could have sent you to UND, but they sent you to Fargo instead. If both teams get seeded, they will find a way to make it a 2/7 or 3/6 match-up to ensure that game happens again. Last year set an all-time FCS record and it had 1.98 million people watch it and no reason to believe they couldn't get 1.5-2.0 million again after how the Marker game played out.
Can we just assume a constant rotation grouping NDSU/SDSU/Montana together?

[MTfan4life]

Southern Utah not even included in the first four teams out, but Eastern Washington makes the field along with Weber State??? UNI would deserve to be in there, but that would give SUU 3 wins over the field and still slotted below Austin Peay?

[TheKingpin28]

Can we just assume a constant rotation grouping NDSU/SDSU/Montana together?

If Idaho shows up in the FCS as well as MSU, well, then we are back to just NDSU and SDSU with the occasional GFCC/USeD team being sent to NDSU/SDSU. UNI would then be getting shipped south or east due to them being more than 400 miles from NDSU and the love the committee has for a NDSU/SDSU match-up.

But yes, those 3 teams will be in perpetual lock as long as regionalization is allowed to occur and the field will not be seeded. I can tell you for a fact that I would love to see a NEC/Patriot AQ team a little more frequently than 1/23 times since 2011. xlolx

[grizband]

If Idaho shows up in the FCS as well as MSU, well, then we are back to just NDSU and SDSU with the occasional GFCC/USeD team being sent to NDSU/SDSU. UNI would then be getting shipped south or east due to them being more than 400 miles from NDSU and the love the committee has for a NDSU/SDSU match-up.

But yes, those 3 teams will be in perpetual lock as long as regionalization is allowed to occur and the field will not be seeded. I can tell you for a fact that I would love to see a NEC/Patriot AQ team a little more frequently than 1/23 times since 2011. xlolx
I miss opening round games against SLC teams...we played quite a few opening round playoff games in the 2000s. Mostly, I would love to not face SDSU/NDSU again.

[TheKingpin28]

I miss opening round games against SLC teams...we played quite a few opening round playoff games in the 2000s. Mostly, I would love to not face SDSU/NDSU again.

I would just love to see someone else besides Montana, SDSU, SHSU, SDSU, UNH, SDSU, UNI, and SDSU. Did I mention SDSU? Ever since both XDSUs got into the playoffs, it threw a wrench into regionalization and the best teams year in and year out, beat each other before the championship game, with whoever ending up on the "weak side" of the bracket to prance on in.

2011: Both teams SHSU/NDSU in the championship gave each other a game.
2012: NDSU and GSU go head to head in the semi-finals and Brock Jensen wins on a 4th and 3/goalline
2013: Honestly, the 2013 NDSU team was on a whole different level for the FCS
2014: NDSU/SDSU (27-24 last second TD to win), NDSU/CCU (39-32 that was a great game as well) NDSU/ISUr (29-27 last second win for Ginger Jesus)
2015: NDSU/UNI (23-13 this was, IMO, the real championship game)
2016: NDSU/JMU (17-27 this was a hell of a game and I think either team would have beat YSU in the championship)

[I Bleed Purple]

*projects SUU with Big Sky autobid

*Leaves SUU out of predicted field.


Oops.

[WrenFGun]

I think there's some misses here. Here's my projections with two weeks to go. For reference, last week, I projected the following:

Big Sky: SUU, NAU, Weber State, EWU
Big South: Monmouth
CAA: UNH, JMU, Stony Brook, Elon
MVFC: SDSU, SD, NDSU, WIU, UNI, ISU-R
SoCON: Wofford, Furman
SLC: Nicholls State, SHSU, UCA
Pioneer: San Diego
Patriot: Lehigh
NEC: Duquesne
OVC: Jacksonville State

There were a few significant outcomes that modify the field for me:

--Montana's win over NAU and EWU's loss to Weber State could drop the Big Sky to a three (or two) bid conference if they're not careful.
--WCU pulled a small upset for me in beating The Citadel, making 8 DI wins a likely reality.
--I think South Dakota and Illinois State are in serious trouble. In South Dakota's case, Streveler looks injured and they close with NDSU and SDSU. Oh, and Illinois State, who IMO was not all that impressive against WIU? They close with the same two teams. I don't think NDSU is going to lose again given what's on the line from a seeding perspective, and I think you'd project both of those teams to lose both remaining games. I think both teams are out if they lose out for their last 3.
--Delaware had a bit of a mini-upset for me over Maine; I didn't think they'd win in Orono, and I think that they are now favored to win out given how poorly Villanova's played, but that last game is still one to watch given that rivalry.
--I still don't see a compelling argument to take a non 8 DI win team if they didn't play in the MVFC.

My revised, two week remaining bracket, then:

Big Sky: SUU (9-2, wins @UCD, NAU), Weber State (8-2, wins @PSU, ISU), Montana (8-3, wins @MSU, NCU)
Big South: Monmouth (10-1, wins GW, @KSU)
CAA: JMU (11-0, wins over Richmond, @Elon), Elon (8-3, losses @UNH, JMU), Stony Brook (9-2, wins over Wagner, @Maine), Delaware (8-3, wins over Albany, @Villanova), UNH (8-3, wins over Elon, @Albany)
MVFC: NDSU (10-1, wins over SD, @ISU-r), SDSU (9-2, wins over ISU-r, @SD), UNI (7-4, wins over @MSU, ISU-b), WIU (8-3, wins over @ISU-b, SIU)
NEC: Duquesne (8-3, wins over CCSU, @Bryant)
OVC: Jacksonville State (10-1, wins over @UTM, TSU), Austin Peay (8-4, wins over @EKU, EIU)
PFL: Lehigh (5-6, wins over HC, Lafayette)
Pioneer: San Diego (9-2, wins @Davidson, Marist)
SoCON: Wofford (9-2, win over VMI, loss to SC), Furman (8-3, win Citadel, @Samford), WCU (8-4, win over Mercer, loss to North Carolina)
SLC: UCA (10-1, wins over @ICW, ACU), SHSU (10-1, wins over @ACU, HBU), Nicholls State (9-2, wins over @SFA, @SELA)

--For me, the last team in/first team out debate is Austin Peay vs. KSU. KSU got a nice win @Montana State, but that'd be their best win if they lose to Monmouth. Nicholls State has the McNeese scalp at least. Could see Austin Peay lose one of their final two, too.
--I think the SLC is probably getting three, even though it may be deserved. Those are relatively tough final two for Nicholls, so it wouldn't surprise me if McNeese sneaks in. Don't see any chance for 4 there, so Nicholls losing probably directly opens McNeese's spot.
--I have NAU losing to SUU to end the season -- that's a good team, but I'm not sure a 7-4 NAU is getting in given the bubble. The possible exception there is if Montana loses one of their final two, which would open the door for EWU at 7-4 to potentially get in. NAU didn't play EWU and lost to Montana, while EWU beat Montana, so I'd think they'd get the H2H. You could see four teams from the Big Sky if NAU beats SUU and Montana wins out, but that UC Davis game is also a little tricky for SUU so that could be a knockout game, too.
--I think UNH and Delaware both have to win out to get in. Neither have easy schedules, but both are favored in both games. I don't think either have a strong enough schedule to get in at 7-4, but I'd prefer Delaware's given they have the wins over Stony Brook and Richmond. It would depend which game UNH won to see how that resume compared. Richmond beating JMU and winning out would be interesting, but I think they'd need one of UD or UNH to lose to get a sniff.
--I think the SoCON is a three team league and I think the Samford/Furman game is probably for a playoff spot. Samford needs to win out to get to 7 DI wins, but winning out would involve beating both Wofford and Furman, plus the KSU win. Furman would also be 7-4 if they lost to Samford, though they'd tie Western, who they beat handily. Western would have one more DI win though. Pretty confusing there. Small possibility Western would get bumped at 8 DI wins with a Furman loss to Samford, or that the SoCON would get 4 since Samford has that win over KSU.

I think the first two unexpected upsets [i.e., NAU also gets to 8-3, or SD or ISU-r win a game in the next two] are pretty easy knockouts of Nicholls State and Austin Peay, but if you've got 3 or more unexpected wins, you're talking about a projected 8-3 team like UNH, UD, WCU, Montana, etc. potentially missing out. Should be a fun final two weeks. Look forward to your thoughts and feedback.

[kalm]

Southern Utah not even included in the first four teams out, but Eastern Washington makes the field along with Weber State??? UNI would deserve to be in there, but that would give SUU 3 wins over the field and still slotted below Austin Peay?

Wow. The Socon and CAA are strong because they beat each other up after weaker OOC schedules but the Big Sky...meh!

The lack of love especially for SUU is simply mind boggling.

[ngineer]

For Lehigh is comes down to this week. What Holy Cross team is going to show up in Bethlehem? There is no way in hell Lehigh loses to Laughyette if they beat Holy Cross. 'pards have shown some grit this year on defense, but I don't see enough there to stop Lehigh's "O". Bucknell's vaunted D had no answers so I don't expect either HC or LC to have any. However, HC has a major offensive threat in Pujals. Forecast now shows no rain but a pretty cool if not cold day in Goodman. May tend to help the increasing Mountain Hawk ground game. Assuming this plays out, I wold love to go to Stony Brook. Never been there before, and going to a new venue would be good. Another 'schlep' to UNH is already a mental 'downer'.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

For Lehigh is comes down to this week. What Holy Cross team is going to show up in Bethlehem? There is no way in hell Lehigh loses to Laughyette if they beat Holy Cross. 'pards have shown some grit this year on defense, but I don't see enough there to stop Lehigh's "O". Bucknell's vaunted D had no answers so I don't expect either HC or LC to have any. However, HC has a major offensive threat in Pujals. Forecast now shows no rain but a pretty cool if not cold day in Goodman. May tend to help the increasing Mountain Hawk ground game. Assuming this plays out, I wold love to go to Stony Brook. Never been there before, and going to a new venue would be good. Another 'schlep' to UNH is already a mental 'downer'.

I totally agree that Lehigh's fate will be determined this week against Holy Cross. They have the potential to embarrass the Lehigh defense like so many teams already have.

Would you go if Lehigh makes the playoffs this year knowing they're likely going to lose by 2+ scores? I have an adventurous spirit but I'm not sure if I could do it. The 7 hour drive back from UNH(thinking Lehigh was going to win) after last year's debacle was soul crushing. I went to UMass in '98 (brutal, but a helluva game), '99 Hofstra, '00 Delaware, '10 Delaware and '11 Towson. I'm not sure if I can do it this season though. Even if the drive is 2-4 hours. Delaware might be the only opponent where I'd say screw it and go....

If Colgate were to get in and they'd actually be willing to put up some $$ to host I'd consider driving up there.

[ngineer]

Some of my greatest memories are being a part of or witnessing a great upset that no one gave a snowball's chance to happen. So, yes, I will go. As a former player, I feel compelled to support the team. I've always love underdog stories ("Rocky" one of my favorite movies). While our chances may be small, they exist. Sometimes a turnover or two, a mistake or there can turn a tide and cause some players who didn't realize they had it in them to realize a potential not felt before. It is the great thing about college and amateur athletics. Playing for the will to win despite the odds.

[Go...gate]

Colgate would definitely be the best PL playoff rep. Lehigh still has the inside track but I still don't think their defense is good enough to win out....

I cannot see Lehigh losing the last two, even in a rivalry game such as #153.

[Go...gate]

For Lehigh is comes down to this week. What Holy Cross team is going to show up in Bethlehem? There is no way in hell Lehigh loses to Laughyette if they beat Holy Cross. 'pards have shown some grit this year on defense, but I don't see enough there to stop Lehigh's "O". Bucknell's vaunted D had no answers so I don't expect either HC or LC to have any. However, HC has a major offensive threat in Pujals. Forecast now shows no rain but a pretty cool if not cold day in Goodman. May tend to help the increasing Mountain Hawk ground game. Assuming this plays out, I would love to go to Stony Brook. Never been there before, and going to a new venue would be good. Another 'schlep' to UNH is already a mental 'downer'.

It is a nice facility.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I see where I goofed the bracket. I'll fix it ASAP but the short version is SUU in where Montana is

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Some of my greatest memories are being a part of or witnessing a great upset that no one gave a snowball's chance to happen. So, yes, I will go. As a former player, I feel compelled to support the team. I've always love underdog stories ("Rocky" one of my favorite movies). While our chances may be small, they exist. Sometimes a turnover or two, a mistake or there can turn a tide and cause some players who didn't realize they had it in them to realize a potential not felt before. It is the great thing about college and amateur athletics. Playing for the will to win despite the odds.

I love your enthusiasm! I'm not a Lehigh alum so I have a little wiggle room! With that said, I obviously support Lehigh football quite emphatically and have so since I was a kid attending games at Taylor Stadium! If nothing else maybe I'd use the booster bus this year and get down with the crew....lol

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I cannot see Lehigh losing the last two, even in a rivalry game such as #153.

Well if Lehigh and Lafayette both lose this week it will be interesting to see how motivated each team is on the 18th. You would think the rivalry would be enough to keep both teams sky high but there's been several instances of half-hearted efforts on both sides in years past....

[uofmman1122]

I see where I goofed the bracket. I'll fix it ASAP but the short version is SUU in where Montana isSo Montana is out at 8-3?

Hoooookay xrolleyesx

[kalm]

So Montana is out at 8-3?

Hoooookay xrolleyesx

And SUU would be last 4 in?

[grizband]

And SUU would be last 4 in?
As the autobid?

[wcugrad95]

I think there's some misses here. Here's my projections with two weeks to go. For reference, last week, I projected the following:

Big Sky: SUU, NAU, Weber State, EWU
Big South: Monmouth
CAA: UNH, JMU, Stony Brook, Elon
MVFC: SDSU, SD, NDSU, WIU, UNI, ISU-R
SoCON: Wofford, Furman
SLC: Nicholls State, SHSU, UCA
Pioneer: San Diego
Patriot: Lehigh
NEC: Duquesne
OVC: Jacksonville State

There were a few significant outcomes that modify the field for me:

--Montana's win over NAU and EWU's loss to Weber State could drop the Big Sky to a three (or two) bid conference if they're not careful.
--WCU pulled a small upset for me in beating The Citadel, making 8 DI wins a likely reality.
--I think South Dakota and Illinois State are in serious trouble. In South Dakota's case, Streveler looks injured and they close with NDSU and SDSU. Oh, and Illinois State, who IMO was not all that impressive against WIU? They close with the same two teams. I don't think NDSU is going to lose again given what's on the line from a seeding perspective, and I think you'd project both of those teams to lose both remaining games. I think both teams are out if they lose out for their last 3.
--Delaware had a bit of a mini-upset for me over Maine; I didn't think they'd win in Orono, and I think that they are now favored to win out given how poorly Villanova's played, but that last game is still one to watch given that rivalry.
--I still don't see a compelling argument to take a non 8 DI win team if they didn't play in the MVFC.

My revised, two week remaining bracket, then:

Big Sky: SUU (9-2, wins @UCD, NAU), Weber State (8-2, wins @PSU, ISU), Montana (8-3, wins @MSU, NCU)
Big South: Monmouth (10-1, wins GW, @KSU)
CAA: JMU (11-0, wins over Richmond, @Elon), Elon (8-3, losses @UNH, JMU), Stony Brook (9-2, wins over Wagner, @Maine), Delaware (8-3, wins over Albany, @Villanova), UNH (8-3, wins over Elon, @Albany)
MVFC: NDSU (10-1, wins over SD, @ISU-r), SDSU (9-2, wins over ISU-r, @SD), UNI (7-4, wins over @MSU, ISU-b), WIU (8-3, wins over @ISU-b, SIU)
NEC: Duquesne (8-3, wins over CCSU, @Bryant)
OVC: Jacksonville State (10-1, wins over @UTM, TSU), Austin Peay (8-4, wins over @EKU, EIU)
PFL: Lehigh (5-6, wins over HC, Lafayette)
Pioneer: San Diego (9-2, wins @Davidson, Marist)
SoCON: Wofford (9-2, win over VMI, loss to SC), Furman (8-3, win Citadel, @Samford), WCU (8-4, win over Mercer, loss to North Carolina)
SLC: UCA (10-1, wins over @ICW, ACU), SHSU (10-1, wins over @ACU, HBU), Nicholls State (9-2, wins over @SFA, @SELA)

--For me, the last team in/first team out debate is Austin Peay vs. KSU. KSU got a nice win @Montana State, but that'd be their best win if they lose to Monmouth. Nicholls State has the McNeese scalp at least. Could see Austin Peay lose one of their final two, too.
--I think the SLC is probably getting three, even though it may be deserved. Those are relatively tough final two for Nicholls, so it wouldn't surprise me if McNeese sneaks in. Don't see any chance for 4 there, so Nicholls losing probably directly opens McNeese's spot.
--I have NAU losing to SUU to end the season -- that's a good team, but I'm not sure a 7-4 NAU is getting in given the bubble. The possible exception there is if Montana loses one of their final two, which would open the door for EWU at 7-4 to potentially get in. NAU didn't play EWU and lost to Montana, while EWU beat Montana, so I'd think they'd get the H2H. You could see four teams from the Big Sky if NAU beats SUU and Montana wins out, but that UC Davis game is also a little tricky for SUU so that could be a knockout game, too.
--I think UNH and Delaware both have to win out to get in. Neither have easy schedules, but both are favored in both games. I don't think either have a strong enough schedule to get in at 7-4, but I'd prefer Delaware's given they have the wins over Stony Brook and Richmond. It would depend which game UNH won to see how that resume compared. Richmond beating JMU and winning out would be interesting, but I think they'd need one of UD or UNH to lose to get a sniff.
--I think the SoCON is a three team league and I think the Samford/Furman game is probably for a playoff spot. Samford needs to win out to get to 7 DI wins, but winning out would involve beating both Wofford and Furman, plus the KSU win. Furman would also be 7-4 if they lost to Samford, though they'd tie Western, who they beat handily. Western would have one more DI win though. Pretty confusing there. Small possibility Western would get bumped at 8 DI wins with a Furman loss to Samford, or that the SoCON would get 4 since Samford has that win over KSU.

I think the first two unexpected upsets [i.e., NAU also gets to 8-3, or SD or ISU-r win a game in the next two] are pretty easy knockouts of Nicholls State and Austin Peay, but if you've got 3 or more unexpected wins, you're talking about a projected 8-3 team like UNH, UD, WCU, Montana, etc. potentially missing out. Should be a fun final two weeks. Look forward to your thoughts and feedback.

Lots of thought and good stuff in here.

Specifically around the SoCon, things might get really interesting if we end up with three teams with 6-2 conference records. Samford would appear as a lock, as they would have wins over KSU, Wofford, and Furman. On the negative side, they would have the worst loss of any of the 3 teams they are tied with (UTC). They would be 8-3 and that should be good enough. Furman would be 7-4, with a "quality loss" to Elon and a win against a currently 5-4 Colgate team. They would have beaten WCU but with at least a partial asterisk (*) since Western played without their most important offensive player in QB Adams for over half the game. Then WCU would have 8 D1 wins, 2 FCS losses to what would be ranked teams (Wofford and Furman), 2 FBS losses, and they also beat Samford. Western would be 8-2 against FCS competition, but admittedly the OOC was weak. I think the only way the SoCon could expect to sniff 4 teams is for this scenario of Samford beating Furman and three 6-2 teams. Even though Samford has the Wofford and Kennesaw wins, if they lose to Furman they will only have 6 D1 wins, would have lost head-to-head to WCU, and again have the bad loss to UTC. In that scenario, it would be Wofford, Furman, and WCU.

If WCU gets 8 wins and doesn't make it that would be a tough pill to swallow, but there are just SO many teams with 2 weeks to go that can build valid arguments.

[kalm]

As the autobid?

Exactly. They're a lock at 8-3 and should be a top 5 seed at 9-2. Even at 7-4 with wins against Weber, UNI, and EWU they should be in. Regardless, simply swapping them for a potentially 8-3 UM is also problematic.

[kalm]

Lots of thought and good stuff in here.

Specifically around the SoCon, things might get really interesting if we end up with three teams with 6-2 conference records. Samford would appear as a lock, as they would have wins over KSU, Wofford, and Furman. On the negative side, they would have the worst loss of any of the 3 teams they are tied with (UTC). They would be 8-3 and that should be good enough. Furman would be 7-4, with a "quality loss" to Elon and a win against a currently 5-4 Colgate team. They would have beaten WCU but with at least a partial asterisk (*) since Western played without their most important offensive player in QB Adams for over half the game. Then WCU would have 8 D1 wins, 2 FCS losses to what would be ranked teams (Wofford and Furman), 2 FBS losses, and they also beat Samford. Western would be 8-2 against FCS competition, but admittedly the OOC was weak. I think the only way the SoCon could expect to sniff 4 teams is for this scenario of Samford beating Furman and three 6-2 teams. Even though Samford has the Wofford and Kennesaw wins, if they lose to Furman they will only have 6 D1 wins, would have lost head-to-head to WCU, and again have the bad loss to UTC. In that scenario, it would be Wofford, Furman, and WCU.

If WCU gets 8 wins and doesn't make it that would be a tough pill to swallow, but there are just SO many teams with 2 weeks to go that can build valid arguments.

I'll ask again, what does conference record have to do with anything? Especially when there are few quality wins OOC? With bubble teams you are comparing resumes across disparate multiple conferences.

[Gate83]

Some of my greatest memories are being a part of or witnessing a great upset that no one gave a snowball's chance to happen. So, yes, I will go. As a former player, I feel compelled to support the team. I've always love underdog stories ("Rocky" one of my favorite movies). While our chances may be small, they exist. Sometimes a turnover or two, a mistake or there can turn a tide and cause some players who didn't realize they had it in them to realize a potential not felt before. It is the great thing about college and amateur athletics. Playing for the will to win despite the odds.

I went to the UNH playoff game 2 years ago thinking it was a fool's errand. Turned out to be a great night...

[Lehigh Football Nation]

OK, I fixed my bracket:

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/fcs-playoffs-til-i-die-projecting-the-2017-fcsplayoff-field-1162017/

Samford (projected: 8-3) over Montana (projected: 7-4) for final spot

Samford more quality wins (Wofford, Kennesaw St.) than Montana (NAU)

These are projected, and Samford could lose. If they do and Montana wins out, Montana with excellent chance of making field.

[wcugrad95]

I'll ask again, what does conference record have to do with anything? Especially when there are few quality wins OOC? With bubble teams you are comparing resumes across disparate multiple conferences.

I was using the conference record to compare the 3 teams that would have the same conference record in the SoCon - that sets them up as pretty equal, and if Samford beat Furman the three would have 1-1 records against each other. Then I used the number of FCS wins/total FCS record, and FBS games. I was trying to differentiate between those 3 teams - Furman beats Samford they are in and Samford is probably out with only 6 D1 wins. Samford beats Furman and then we have arguments about Furman beat WCU without their QB and had stronger OOC schedule, WCU has 8 wins and beat Samford, etc. This was admittedly (see the lead-in that said specifically around the SoCon) about pairing down who could go from that specific conference. This wasn't really about the other teams - it was about the SoCon probably only getting 3 in but having 4 teams that could have valid arguments.

That was also why I added the comment about so many teams having similar arguments with 2 weeks to go.

[JSUSoutherner]

OK, I fixed my bracket:

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/fcs-playoffs-til-i-die-projecting-the-2017-fcsplayoff-field-1162017/

Samford (projected: 8-3) over Montana (projected: 7-4) for final spot

Samford more quality wins (Wofford, Kennesaw St.) than Montana (NAU)

These are projected, and Samford could lose. If they do and Montana wins out, Montana with excellent chance of making field.

I would love that bracket.

That right side is loaded and the path for JSU would be brutal.

[wcugrad95]

OK, I fixed my bracket:

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/fcs-playoffs-til-i-die-projecting-the-2017-fcsplayoff-field-1162017/

Samford (projected: 8-3) over Montana (projected: 7-4) for final spot

Samford more quality wins (Wofford, Kennesaw St.) than Montana (NAU)

These are projected, and Samford could lose. If they do and Montana wins out, Montana with excellent chance of making field.

So now I would ask if Samford is 8-3 that makes Furman 7-4. This would put 4 Socon teams in (one with 7 wins, 2 with 8 wins, and 1 with 9 wins). That means Furman is in with a win over Citadel regardless of what happens with Samford. But is Samford out if they lose to Furman?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

So now I would ask if Samford is 8-3 that makes Furman 7-4. This would put 4 Socon teams in (one with 7 wins, 2 with 8 wins, and 1 with 9 wins). That means Furman is in with a win over Citadel regardless of what happens with Samford. But is Samford out if they lose to Furman?

It's clearly going to be close for Samford if they lose to Furman in that case, they would be a really bubbly team somewhere in the last 4 in or first 4 out.

Samford to some degree is tied to the fate of KSU. If they win the Big South auto and go 10-1, that helps Samford immensely, however KSU could easily lose both games and go 8-3. If they do, that potentially affects Samford's resume a lot. To a lesser extent the same is true of Furman and Colgate. A Furman win over a 7-4, Patriot League champ Colgate mildly helps their resume, but is Colgate loses their last two games, the win becomes meaningless in terms of at-large consideration.

[UNHWildcat18]

Big South-Auto- Monmouth 1
NEC- Auto- Duquesne 2
Patriot-Auto- Colgate 3
OVC-Auto- JSU 4
Pioneer-Auto-San Diego 5

CAA- Auto-JMU 6
At Large- SBU Elon UNH UD 10

MVFC-Auto NDSU 11
At large- SDSU, ISUr, UNI, WIU 15 (USD is going to go 1-4 in its final 5 and be left behind at 7-4)

Big Sky Auto- SUU 16
At large Montana, Weber St, Northern Arizona 19

Southland- Auto UCA 20
At large SHSU 21

Southern- Auto- Wofford 22
At large- Furman, WCU 24

There you go, my 24 teams, obviously the teams could change slightly depending on upsets and say the big sky gets 3 and southland gets 3 but that is my take on who gets in.
CAA-5
MVFC-5
Big Sky-4
Southern-3
Southland-2
Big South-1
Pioneer-1
NEC-1
Patriot-1
OVC-1

I didn't bother to break down the at larges or first four out last four in blah blah blah, I only did USD to show how the committee will NOT be giving the MVFC 6 bids, even when 6 teams are 7-4 are better.

If anyone wants to ask why I put X team in over Y team feel free.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

I don't have any guesses at this point, but what is always fun to watch for is the 1 team that gets left out of regionalization due to odd numbers of East vs. West; North vs. South. For example, I think I remember Furman getting sent out to Montana years ago. Last year we saw Chattanooga and Weber St. matched up. Sam Houston and Southern Utah the year before (though that is sort of regional).

Any early guesses on a fun 1st round non-regional matchup?

[CHIP72]

I totally agree that Lehigh's fate will be determined this week against Holy Cross. They have the potential to embarrass the Lehigh defense like so many teams already have.

Would you go if Lehigh makes the playoffs this year knowing they're likely going to lose by 2+ scores? I have an adventurous spirit but I'm not sure if I could do it. The 7 hour drive back from UNH(thinking Lehigh was going to win) after last year's debacle was soul crushing. I went to UMass in '98 (brutal, but a helluva game), '99 Hofstra, '00 Delaware, '10 Delaware and '11 Towson. I'm not sure if I can do it this season though. Even if the drive is 2-4 hours. Delaware might be the only opponent where I'd say screw it and go....

If Colgate were to get in and they'd actually be willing to put up some $$ to host I'd consider driving up there.

If Lehigh (or Lafayette) plays at Delaware or Richmond in the first round (and I realize Richmond probably won't be hosting any games if they get in), I'll probably go. I have greater travel flexibility the Saturday after Thanksgiving this year compared to most years.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

If you picked a bracket on pure Sagarin rating and seeded every team, it would look like this:

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/csj-sagarin-ncaa-fcs-playoff-projection-nov-7/

I think if a few different things were done in terms of the bracket - i.e. using the FCS Committee's Top 8s as the projected seeds, eliminate the 5 loss teams - it would look similar to a lot of the brackets floating around.

[Bison56]

If you picked a bracket on pure Sagarin rating and seeded every team, it would look like this:

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/csj-sagarin-ncaa-fcs-playoff-projection-nov-7/

I think if a few different things were done in terms of the bracket - i.e. using the FCS Committee's Top 8s as the projected seeds, eliminate the 5 loss teams - it would look similar to a lot of the brackets floating around.

Can you imagine the outrage if that was the bracket? xlolxxshakingmadx

[Reign of Terrier]

The more I stare at the bracket, from a Southern conference lens, the more I don't think
1) 8-3 Samford would be a lock
2) 7-4 Socon team definitely doesn't get it
3) there is a really good chance that more than one 8 or even 9-win teams get left out this year

[katstrapper]

How in the heck does E Washington even get playoff talk with 4 losses? That is outrageous.

So if UCA, SHSU, McNeese and Nicholls all win out, season records would be....

UCA 10 -1 (Loss to K. State)
SHSU 10-1 (Loss to UCA)
McNeese 9-2 (Losses to Nicholls St , UCA)
Nicholls St 9-2 (losses to Tx A&M, SHSU)

Whats the chances the Southland puts 4 teams in the playoffs ?

[Winston]

I like this bracket . We could face Colgate which is always a solid program . Could be a good game. If we advance I think we beat Elon .
Tell me, how the heck does Stony Brook play in the NCAA playoffs at Elon? The State of NY has forbidden state activities from being held in NC, since NC passed the "bathroom law". The NCAA will have to schedule the playoff brackets around this.

[Reign of Terrier]

How in the heck does E Washington even get playoff talk with 4 losses? That is outrageous.

So if UCA, SHSU, McNeese and Nicholls all win out, season records would be....

UCA 10 -1 (Loss to K. State)
SHSU 10-1 (Loss to UCA)
McNeese 9-2 (Losses to Nicholls St , UCA)
Nicholls St 9-2 (losses to Tx A&M, SHSU)

Whats the chances the Southland puts 4 teams in the playoffs ?

Between the strengths of the MVFC, CAA and Southland this year, there's a strong chance that 2-3 teams with 7-8 D1 wins get left out this year.

We've not had two conferences get five in before.

[Sammy94]

How in the heck does E Washington even get playoff talk with 4 losses? That is outrageous.

So if UCA, SHSU, McNeese and Nicholls all win out, season records would be....

UCA 10 -1 (Loss to K. State)
SHSU 10-1 (Loss to UCA)
McNeese 9-2 (Losses to Nicholls St , UCA)
Nicholls St 9-2 (losses to Tx A&M, SHSU)

Whats the chances the Southland puts 4 teams in the playoffs ?

Hell will freeze and AGS will blow up if SLC gets 4 in. I do see 3 getting in though.

[Reign of Terrier]

As far as I'm concerned there are only 2 teams that could get in at 7-4: UNI and Richmond. That's all. Looking at the whole field, I don't see how a 7-4 Socon, non-Richmond CAA team (Richmond has a strong SOS), Big Sky, OVC team gets in before an 8-3 or 9-2 Southland team (Nichols, McNeese). If McNeese and Nichols win out, I just don't see how they get held out. I don't think a 9-win Southland team has ever been held out of the playoffs before. There's multiple examples of the committee going to a 6-win MVFC or Socon team over a 7-win Southland (and I recognize the process is more mathematical than that), but I just don't see them doing that to 2 9-win teams. I think it's possible one gets left out (McNeese), but it'll be that much more difficult if they win 9.

[PaladinFan]

As far as I'm concerned there are only 2 teams that could get in at 7-4: UNI and Richmond. That's all. Looking at the whole field, I don't see how a 7-4 Socon, non-Richmond CAA team (Richmond has a strong SOS), Big Sky, OVC team gets in before an 8-3 or 9-2 Southland team (Nichols, McNeese). If McNeese and Nichols win out, I just don't see how they get held out. I don't think a 9-win Southland team has ever been held out of the playoffs before. There's multiple examples of the committee going to a 6-win MVFC or Socon team over a 7-win Southland (and I recognize the process is more mathematical than that), but I just don't see them doing that to 2 9-win teams. I think it's possible one gets left out (McNeese), but it'll be that much more difficult if they win 9.

Probably again the time to point out that Furman and Richmond have two common opponents, and Furman was more impressive against both.

If I read Sagarin correctly (always a possibility I didn't), their strengths of schedule are virtually identical.

[kalm]

How in the heck does E Washington even get playoff talk with 4 losses? That is outrageous.

So if UCA, SHSU, McNeese and Nicholls all win out, season records would be....

UCA 10 -1 (Loss to K. State)
SHSU 10-1 (Loss to UCA)
McNeese 9-2 (Losses to Nicholls St , UCA)
Nicholls St 9-2 (losses to Tx A&M, SHSU)

Whats the chances the Southland puts 4 teams in the playoffs ?

EWU needs help. The reason we're still in the conversation is those 4 losses are against a bowl team in TTU and three possible seeds in NDSU, Weber, and SUU. The problem being our best wins come against an at best 8-3 Montana and 7-4 Sac or Davis. If Montana and either Sac or Davis wins out we'll have wins against what might be two playoff teams with both SAC and Davis having a win over SUU. Plus our SOS would be top 5-10.

Compare that resume or a 7-4 SAC or Davis to a 9-2 Monmouth or McNeese who didn't play an FBS. The latter two would have just one more win against the 82nd and 73rd best strengths of schedule.

There's precedence for taking 4 and even 5 loss teams over 9-2's from weaker conferences.

I'm not saying the committee will go one way or the other but that's how 7-4 teams are still in the mix.

[Reign of Terrier]

Probably again the time to point out that Furman and Richmond have two common opponents, and Furman was more impressive against both.

If I read Sagarin correctly (always a possibility I didn't), their strengths of schedule are virtually identical.

The only reason 7-4 Richmond would get in over Furman is because such a Richmond team would have a hypothetical win over JMU and I think that tops Furman's victory over Western Carolina. Richmond and Furman are similar (3+ losses to a playoff team or FBS opponent, assuming Furman loses to Samford).

It's a null point though, because I don't think Richmond will go 7-4.

[kalm]

As far as I'm concerned there are only 2 teams that could get in at 7-4: UNI and Richmond. That's all. Looking at the whole field, I don't see how a 7-4 Socon, non-Richmond CAA team (Richmond has a strong SOS), Big Sky, OVC team gets in before an 8-3 or 9-2 Southland team (Nichols, McNeese). If McNeese and Nichols win out, I just don't see how they get held out. I don't think a 9-win Southland team has ever been held out of the playoffs before. There's multiple examples of the committee going to a 6-win MVFC or Socon team over a 7-win Southland (and I recognize the process is more mathematical than that), but I just don't see them doing that to 2 9-win teams. I think it's possible one gets left out (McNeese), but it'll be that much more difficult if they win 9.

Richmonds SoS is 27, best win is a 5-4 Colgate or 4-5 Nova. Davis is 17 and would have wins over SUU and Sac. Sac is 21 and would have wins over SUU and Davis. EWU is 5 with wins over Sac, Davis, and Montana.

Edit:,,Richmond would have a win over JMU at 7-4. You could be right.

[Professor]

Tell me, how the heck does Stony Brook play in the NCAA playoffs at Elon? The State of NY has forbidden state activities from being held in NC, since NC passed the "bathroom law". The NCAA will have to schedule the playoff brackets around this.

You realize the bathroom law was repealed like 2 years ago right

[WrenFGun]

EWU needs help. The reason we're still in the conversation is those 4 losses are against a bowl team in TTU and three possible seeds in NDSU, Weber, and SUU. The problem being our best wins come against an at best 8-3 Montana and 7-4 Sac or Davis. If Montana and either Sac or Davis wins out we'll have wins against what might be two playoff teams with both SAC and Davis having a win over SUU. Plus our SOS would be top 5-10.

Compare that resume or a 7-4 SAC or Davis to a 9-2 Monmouth or McNeese who didn't play an FBS. The latter two would have just one more win against the 82nd and 73rd best strengths of schedule.

There's precedence for taking 4 and even 5 loss teams over 9-2's from weaker conferences.

I'm not saying the committee will go one way or the other but that's how 7-4 teams are still in the mix.

I think EWU's best hope is for NAU to lose to SUU and Montana to lose to Montana State. Then you'd have just 2 8+ win teams from the Big Sky and EWU would probably be next in the pecking order.

Largely agree with the contingent that says that the only 7 loss teams getting in are Richmond and UNI, and Richmond only because they would have beaten JMU to get there. I think Samford would probably also get in if they beat Furman, but I'm not certain. That loss to Chattanooga is pretty bad, and they'd only have 7 DI wins.

The bubble can still soften in two weeks, though -- teams like New Hampshire, Delaware, Montana, even SUU still have a chance not to get to 8 DI wins.

[WrenFGun]

Hell will freeze and AGS will blow up if SLC gets 4 in. I do see 3 getting in though.

I think there's a decent chance Nicholls loses one of the last two; both on the road, SELA isn't terrible. McNeese doesn't have a single quality win on their resume and would have only 8 DI wins. I think it's likely they get three, but better chance of two than four.

[Reign of Terrier]

EWU needs help. The reason we're still in the conversation is those 4 losses are against a bowl team in TTU and three possible seeds in NDSU, Weber, and SUU. The problem being our best wins come against an at best 8-3 Montana and 7-4 Sac or Davis. If Montana and either Sac or Davis wins out we'll have wins against what might be two playoff teams with both SAC and Davis having a win over SUU. Plus our SOS would be top 5-10.

Compare that resume or a 7-4 SAC or Davis to a 9-2 Monmouth or McNeese who didn't play an FBS. The latter two would have just one more win against the 82nd and 73rd best strengths of schedule.

There's precedence for taking 4 and even 5 loss teams over 9-2's from weaker conferences.

I'm not saying the committee will go one way or the other but that's how 7-4 teams are still in the mix.

I'm skeptical that a 7-4 team, outside of UNI (who benefits from their standing in the MVFC IMO; weirdly enough, had they won against SUU and lost another MVFC conference game they may be in lesser standing) will get in this year. The sheer number of 8+ win teams this year is going to be massive relative to other years and I don't see more than 1 slipping through the cracks.

To visualize this point, at this point in time there are 9 teams with 8+ wins on the season. Next week 8 more could add to those ranks and the week after that possibly another 6 or so more (there are some teams playing each other). There's a minimum of 20 teams with 8+ wins this year and the ones with the weaker SOS will have 9 wins.

For comparison, since the field expanded to 24 teams, here have been the *total* number of 8 win+ teams in the OVC, Big South, Southern, Southland, CAA, MVFC, and Big Sky at the end of the regular season (admittedly, many from the Big South did not get a bid):
2017: 9 (through 10 weeks)
2016: 16
2015: 16
2014: 21
2013: 21
Note: in 2013-2014 many teams played 12 regular season games which inflated the numbers a bit.

So, it's possible that this week we surpass the total number of teams with 8+ wins from the last two seasons. Arguably, there were less impressive teams that got an invite last year (Samford comes to mind as they only had 6 D1 wins, but there are others). What's more, it's possible we surpass the 2013 and 2014 totals without a 12 game schedule, which is crazy.

I don't see more than two at maximum teams at 7-4 getting in because of all of this. I know SOS is important, but when you have big conferences like the CAA, Southland and Big Sky, you can argue that a lot of teams benefit from schedule (I'm not trying to get into the weeds on that one, just pointing out that a hypothetical 8-3 Elon looks a lot like a hypothetical Nichols State if you squint) and on the face of it (I don't understand committee math) I find it hard to squeeze a 7-4 team outside of UNI.

[kalm]

I'm skeptical that a 7-4 team, outside of UNI (who benefits from their standing in the MVFC IMO; weirdly enough, had they won against SUU and lost another MVFC conference game they may be in lesser standing) will get in this year. The sheer number of 8+ win teams this year is going to be massive relative to other years and I don't see more than 1 slipping through the cracks.

To visualize this point, at this point in time there are 9 teams with 8+ wins on the season. Next week 8 more could add to those ranks and the week after that possibly another 6 or so more (there are some teams playing each other). There's a minimum of 20 teams with 8+ wins this year and the ones with the weaker SOS will have 9 wins.

For comparison, since the field expanded to 24 teams, here have been the *total* number of 8 win+ teams in the OVC, Big South, Southern, Southland, CAA, MVFC, and Big Sky at the end of the regular season (admittedly, many from the Big South did not get a bid):
2017: 9 (through 10 weeks)
2016: 16
2015: 16
2014: 21
2013: 21
Note: in 2013-2014 many teams played 12 regular season games which inflated the numbers a bit.

So, it's possible that this week we surpass the total number of teams with 8+ wins from the last two seasons. Arguably, there were less impressive teams that got an invite last year (Samford comes to mind as they only had 6 D1 wins, but there are others). What's more, it's possible we surpass the 2013 and 2014 totals without a 12 game schedule, which is crazy.

I don't see more than two at maximum teams at 7-4 getting in because of all of this. I know SOS is important, but when you have big conferences like the CAA, Southland and Big Sky, you can argue that a lot of teams benefit from schedule (I'm not trying to get into the weeds on that one, just pointing out that a hypothetical 8-3 Elon looks a lot like a hypothetical Nichols State if you squint) and on the face of it (I don't understand committee math) I find it hard to squeeze a 7-4 team outside of UNI.

Perhaps but as I mentioned in another post McNeese and Monmouth didn't play a FBS so they'd really end up with just one more win than a 7-4 who did and also played a MUCH harder schedule and will have 2-4 quality wins and wins against playoff/ranked teams.

For example, compare a 7-4 WIU (I know, they should win out) with wins over NAU, CCU, ISUr, and UNI with a 9-2 Nichols whose best win is McNeese and after that not a single win against team that's better than a 3-6 NWST.

Do the same comparison with a 7-4 ISUr.

I think multiple 7-4's are still in play.

[Reign of Terrier]

Perhaps but as I mentioned in another post McNeese and Monmouth didn't play a FBS so they'd really end up with just one more win than a 7-4 who did and also played a MUCH harder schedule and will have 2-4 quality wins and wins against playoff/ranked teams.

For example, compare a 7-4 WIU (I know, they should win out) with wins over NAU, CCU, ISUr, and UNI with a 9-2 Nichols whose best win is McNeese and after that not a single win against team that's better than a 3-6 NWST.

Do the same comparison with a 7-4 ISUr.

I think multiple 7-4's are still in play.

See, I'm just not sure. The only thing I'm sure about is that there will likely be a lot of quality teams with a legitimate argument for a bid that will be sitting home on selection sunday.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

The single most damning piece of McNeese's resume is their opening weekend loss to Nicholls. If they both win the rest of the way, I could see Nicholls making it in and 9-2 McNeese sitting at home. However they could get help if Eastern Washington loses another game, Montana loses...

[WrenFGun]

The single most damning piece of McNeese's resume is their opening weekend loss to Nicholls. If they both win the rest of the way, I could see Nicholls making it in and 9-2 McNeese sitting at home. However they could get help if Eastern Washington loses another game, Montana loses...

Eastern Washington is barely in the conversation right now; their profile is about as good as Nicholls, but they project to have two less wins. I'm pretty stunned you have them in the field right now.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Eastern Washington is barely in the conversation right now; their profile is about as good as Nicholls, but they project to have two less wins. I'm pretty stunned you have them in the field right now.

At 7-4 they'd own a head-to-head win over Montana and Sac State and those wins alone would give them a better resume than a lot of these other bubble teams. They're still one of the last four teams in, but IMO they have a better resume than McNeese, Nicholls, and maybe even the last CAA teams to get in.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

One of the things bubble teams need to be rooting for big-time is for Illinois State to finish at 6-5. To me, a 5th loss is toxic to all MVFC teams, but any 7-4 team would be hard to deny. If UNI holds serve they are 100% in IMO.

[WrenFGun]

At 7-4 they'd own a head-to-head win over Montana and Sac State and those wins alone would give them a better resume than a lot of these other bubble teams. They're still one of the last four teams in, but IMO they have a better resume than McNeese, Nicholls, and maybe even the last CAA teams to get in.

Is that really better than a 9-2 Nicholls with a win over a 9-2 McNeese and 2 more DI wins than them? I doubt it. I get they'll be in the running depending on how that bubble shakes out, but to have them in now with a 7-4 at best projection feels like a reach to me.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think the most conservative approach is to assume a 7-4 team is out, unless it's UNI. If a team has 9 wins but isn't Nichols or McNeese they're probably a lock. Whether or not they get left out depends greatly on
1) the third and fourth place Big Sky team
2) The third and fourth place Southern Conference teams and
3) the 4th and 5th place CAA team

If Delaware and or New Hampshire drop another game (especially if New Hampshire loses to Elon [without assessment of that likelihood]) I think the Southland get at least Nichols in. I think the third place Southland team gets in over the fourth place Big Sky and Southern team, but not necessarily the third place team (especially if said team is 8-3).

I think when the dust settles the only conferences that will have a clear-cut case for 4 or 5 teams is the CAA and the MVFC. Three is possible if not likely for the Southland, Southern and Big Sky, but four depends greatly on who the fourth team is and who fades down the stretch in the other conferences.

[kalm]

Is that really better than a 9-2 Nicholls with a win over a 9-2 McNeese and 2 more DI wins than them? I doubt it. I get they'll be in the running depending on how that bubble shakes out, but to have them in now with a 7-4 at best projection feels like a reach to me.

If you conpletely ignore schedules. As mentioned, after the McNeese win which is just ok, Nichols next best win is against a 3-6 NWST.

[WrenFGun]

If you conpletely ignore schedules. As mentioned, after the McNeese win which is just ok, Nichols next best win is against a 3-6 NWST.

Yeah; I think the committee will probably look at McNeese, Sac. State and U.C. Davis fairly similarly. I'm just not sure Sac State and U.C. Davis make up for two fewer wins, but the point is well taken. If you're asking me who I think the more deserving team is, that answer is probably different than who I think the committee would be more likely to choose.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

If a team has 9 wins but isn't Nichols or McNeese they're probably a lock.

Sorry, 2013 me got a real chuckle out of that one.