MVFC Playoff Outlook 2017

[Professor Chaos]

Post Week 9 Update (10/28) (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?197732-MVFC-Playoff-Outlook-2017&p=2556351&viewfull=1#post2556351)
Post Week 10 Update (11/4) (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?197732-MVFC-Playoff-Outlook-2017&p=2561076&viewfull=1#post2561076)
Post Week 11 Update (11/11) (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?197732-MVFC-Playoff-Outlook-2017&p=2565137&viewfull=1#post2565137)


You didn't ask for it but here it is anyway, the 2017 version of my MVFC playoff outlook! With half of the conference season done we've got 8 of 10 MVFC teams with playoff aspirations although some are more realistic than others. I've ordered teams from who I think has the easiest path into the playoff field to the toughest. I think the MVFC is almost a lock for 4 playoff teams and has a shot at 5 if the pretenders start to shake themself out sooner rather than later.

NOTES: A YSU win/loss for others teams is tough to classify right now since I think they're a quality team but their record does not reflect so I don't include them as a quality win or a bad loss at this point but they could trend in either direction in a week. As of now I have NAU as a quality win for WIU but that could change given the outcome of their game tonight.


Locks

None yet


Should be in

North Dakota St (7-0, 4-0)
Quality wins: @EWU, WIU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: UNI, @SDSU, USD, @ISUr
The Bison are once again trending towards a top 2 seed but they do not have any gimmes left the rest of the way so it won't be easy. Desplite that I'd tend to think that even with a loss they could still get into the top 4 seeds and even with two losses they could still have a playoff bye as a top 8 seed. One more win should lock them into the field.

South Dakota (6-1, 3-1)
Quality wins: @Bowling Green, @WIU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: SIU, @UNI, @NDSU, SDSU
The Yotes tripped up today after being remarkably consistent through the first 1.5 months of the season but they're still in good shape to make the playoffs for the first time in D1. They should still be in position for a playoff seed even with today's loss and if they win out I could see them as a top 2 seed given the impressive wins they'd have to rack up to get there. Even with 1 more loss I think they're still in line for a seed. One more win likely locks them into the field with their solid resume so far.


Work left to do

Western Illinois (5-2, 2-2)
Quality wins: @Coastal Carolina, @NAU, @UNI
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: SDSU, @ISUr, @ISUb, SIU
Despite losing 2 of their last 3 WIU is still in a good spot in regards to their playoff positioning IMO. They likely need to win 2 more to get in and their last two games are very winnable. I think they'd have an interesting 6-5 resume if they slip up and lose 3 of their last 4 given their good OOC wins but I have a hard time seeing how they'd get in with a 3-5 conference record. They could potentially play themselves into a top 4 seed should they win out and I think even at 8-3 they'd have a solid shot at a seed and a bye but there's a lot of variables still to be determined for both scenarios.

South Dakota St (5-2, 2-2)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @WIU, NDSU, ISUr, @USD
Despite being wildly inconsistent so far the Jacks are still in a good position to make the playoffs. However their remaining schedule is brutal (combined 23-5 record for their reamining opponents) and they're likely going to need to win at least 2 to get into the field given their lack of quality wins so far which is far from a given. They could still play themselves into a seed if they win out but one more loss and they're probably going to be relegated to playing on Thanksgiving weekend.

Illinois St (5-2, 3-1)
Quality wins: USD
Bad losses: @SIU (due to margin moreso than the opponent)
Remaining games: @YSU, WIU, @SDSU, NDSU
The Redbirds essentially saved their season today with a huge home win against USD as they are now looking solid and only needing to win 2 of their last 4 to get in. However, that will not be easy as every team from here on out will be a tough out for them starting with a trip to the Ice Castle to face a YSU team in desperation mode. I think they can play themselves into a seed if they win out but losing one to get to 8-3 seems likely to leave them playing on Thanksgiving weekend given their underwhelming OOC performance.

Northern Iowa (4-3, 3-1)
Quality wins: @SDSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @NDSU, USD, @MSU, ISUb
All of a sudden the Panthers have a revitalized playoff outlook after 2 big conference wins over SDSU and YSU. I think they'll need to win 3 or 4 to get in which means they're going to need to beat either NDSU or USD along with their final two games (which they should be heavily favored in) to get in. They could even play themselves into a playoff bye (and the conference autobid) if they win out. If they drop two, especially if those are to NDSU and USD, I have a hard time seeing them getting in at 6-5 so they'll need to continue their good play over the next two weeks if they hope to play past Thanksgiving.

Southern Illinois (4-3, 2-2)
Quality wins: ISUr
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @USD, MSU, YSU, @WIU
The Salukis are over .500 heading into late October for the first time in a while and they have some very real playoff hopes but they've got a pretty tough schedule down the stretch and they'll likely need to win 3 of 4 to get in. They could even play themselves into a seed if they win out but, regardless, they're in a better position right now than most everyone outside of Carbondale thought they would be at this point in the season.


Must win out

Youngstown St (3-4, 1-3)
Quality wins: SDSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: ISRr, @ISUb, @SIU, MSU
My how things have turned sour for the Penguins in just 14 days. They went from being in the coversation for the #1 seed before their loss to USD two weeks ago to losers of 3 in a row and essentially already being in playoff mode. The good news is they have the softest remaining schedule of anyone in the conference. The bad news that goes along with that is they won't have much a chance to show they're good enough to get in at 6-5 if they drop one as their poor out of conference SOS may come back to bite them once again. It all starts next week with a huge home game against ISUr, if they win that one they have a very good shot at winning out and could be a very dangerous unseeded team in the playoffs.


Eliminated

Missouri St (1-6, 0-4) - It's been a miserable season for the Bears despite the fact that they were playoff relevant last year going into November. This year the best they can hope for is to steal a game and play spoiler down the stretch.
Indiana St (0-7, 0-4) - The Sycs aren't as bad as their record (they can't be can they?) so I wouldn't be surprised to see them pick off a team with playoff aspirations down the stretch but their postseason hopes were dashed long ago.

[Sycamore62]

I’m not sure we can win a game now. We have lost too many players and didnt start deep.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Great work Prof!

[Professor Chaos]

Defending national runner up YSU saw their postseason dreams ended today but other than that everyone stayed alive so 7 MVFC teams survived week 9 although a couple teams' playoff hopes are on life support. It still looks like the MVFC could get 5 teams into the postseason and at the very least 4 looks likely. Here are the teams, in order, based on who I think has the easiest path to the playoffs (or is already in) compared to the toughest.


Locks

North Dakota St (8-0, 5-0)
Quality wins: @EWU, WIU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @SDSU, USD, @ISUr
The Bison locked themselves into the playoff field with their win today against UNI are once again trending towards a top 2 seed but they finish the season against the top 3 teams in the MVFC other than themselves. I think even with a loss they could still get into the top 4 seeds and even with two losses they should still have a playoff bye as a top 8 seed because each win they get from here on out will be a quality one.

South Dakota (7-1, 4-1)
Quality wins: @Bowling Green, @WIU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @UNI, @NDSU, SDSU
I think the Yotes are locked into the playoffs for the first time in their D1 existence although if they want to avoid a sweat they probably don't want to rest on their laurels and end the season on a 3 game losing streak. Their next game is sneaky a tough one against a UNI team that is in deperation mode in the always tough to play at UNI-Dome but if they win out I could see them as a top 2 seed given the impressive wins they'd have to rack up to get there. Even with 1 more loss I think they're still in line for a seed.


Should be in

South Dakota St (6-2, 3-2)
Quality wins: @WIU
Bad losses: @YSU (tough to call this a bad loss but YSU is 3-5 now and SDSU is their only MVFC win)
Remaining games: NDSU, ISUr, @USD
The Jacks finally picked up a quality win today in Macomb (although that Duquesne win in the non-conference may turn out to look pretty good also) and are on the brink of a playoff spot needing only 1 win in their last 3 to lock themselves in. However, their remaining schedule is brutally tough (combined 21-3 record for their remaining opponents). They could still play themselves into a seed if they win out and I think they'd be right on the brink of the seed line even with one more loss (given the two high quality wins they'd also bank to get there).

Illinois St (6-2, 4-1)
Quality wins: USD
Bad losses: @SIU
Remaining games: WIU, @SDSU, NDSU
The Redbirds basically ended YSU's season in impressive fashion on the road today and have put their rough stretch in the first half of October in the rearview mirror. They only need 1 more win in their last 3 to lock them into the field and they have a good chance to get that against a reeling WIU squad (losers of 2 in a row and 3 of their last 5) coming to Normal next week. They better not mess around though because their final two are going to be very tough. I think they can play themselves into a seed if they win out but losing just one more seems likely to leave them playing on Thanksgiving weekend given their underwhelming OOC performance and bad loss to SIU.


Work left to do

Western Illinois (5-3, 2-3)
Quality wins: @Coastal Carolina, @NAU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @ISUr, @ISUb, SIU
Despite losing 2 in a row and 3 of their last 5 WIU is still in a decent spot in regards to their playoff positioning. They likely need to win 2 of their last 3 to get in and their last two games are very winnable. I think they'd have an interesting 6-5 resume if they slip up and lose 2 of their last 3 but I have a hard time seeing how they'd get in with a 3-5 conference record. They could potentially play themselves into a seed should they win out given their impressive OOC wins and the fact that they'd be on a 3 game win streak to end the season but they need to start with getting a win to stop the bleeding and avoid a similar late season swoon that doomed them last year.


Must win out

Northern Iowa (4-4, 3-2)
Quality wins: @SDSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: USD, @MSU, ISUb
The momentum the Panthers built earlier in the month came to a screeching halt with their loss in Fargo today and I think they're now in must win territory. I don't think 6-5 will be good enough for them given the fact that they'll be heavily favored in their final two games so if they lose to USD this next weekend they'll have nothing but their win against SDSU in Brookings to prop them up at 6-5 and I just don't think that'll be good enough. But, like I said, given the fact that their last two are against the MVFC bottom feeders their season really hinges on whether they can upset USD in the UNI-Dome next Saturday.

Southern Illinois (4-4, 2-3)
Quality wins: ISUr
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: MSU, YSU, @WIU
The Salukis are playoff relevant heading into November which is probably better than most people outside Carbondale thought they'd be this year but they need to win out in order to have any chance at a playoff bid. Their schedule isn't that tough given what the rest of the conference is dealing with but they've been very inconsistent to this point so it seems unlikely that they'll be able to avoid laying a proverbial egg at least once in their last 3 games. They should be able to handle MSU next weekend so I think they'll be relevant for at least one more week but we'll see whether they can keep it up past then.


Eliminated

Youngstown St (3-5, 1-4) - Injuries and attrition caught up with the defending national runners up as they went from being in the conversation of being the #1 team in the FCS to out of playoff contention in just 3 weeks (and 4 games). They've got a pretty decent shot to finish 6-5 but even with that I don't see them having a good argument for an at-large playoff invite.
Missouri St (2-6, 1-4) - It's been a miserable season for the Bears but they showed today that they still have at least some fight left in them and they'll have a chance to play spoiler down the stretch.
Indiana St (0-8, 0-5) - Well the Sycs last best chance for a win went out the window today and it doesn't look likely they'll win a game this year. I guess 2018 (or basketball season) can't get here soon enough in Terre Haute.

[Bison56]

Nice work as, always enjoy your write ups.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Nice work chaos!!

[RabidRabbit]

Since the NDSU game, YSU has been a shadow of the team that beat the Jacks. SDSU finally looked like a team that may be able to get a win vs NDSU. But only if Jacks can get a lead, preferably 2 scores or better, and get NDSU out of their ground-n-pound TOP dominating game.

Good work Prof on the projections. Stop through for some Crawfish Etoufee during tailgating. Looking forward to my lone trip to Brookings this year.

[Professor Chaos]

Since the NDSU game, YSU has been a shadow of the team that beat the Jacks. SDSU finally looked like a team that may be able to get a win vs NDSU. But only if Jacks can get a lead, preferably 2 scores or better, and get NDSU out of their ground-n-pound TOP dominating game.

Good work Prof on the projections. Stop through for some Crawfish Etoufee during tailgating. Looking forward to my lone trip to Brookings this year.
Thanks! Not sure if I'll make it down there or not. Depends on if I can wrangle up some tickets so we'll see.

[leatherneck177]

Spot on top to bottom, great work!

[katss07]

If WIU and UNI both finished at 6-5, who would get in? The bubble is a bit stronger this season, but could a 6-5 team get in again? I think so, and it could come down to those 2.

I dont think WIU has a chance at a seed.

[Professor Chaos]

If WIU and UNI both finished at 6-5, who would get in? The bubble is a bit stronger this season, but could a 6-5 team get in again? I think so, and it could come down to those 2.

I dont think WIU has a chance at a seed.
Neither I'd say but if it was one I'd have to say WIU. They have the head-to-head win over UNI and two good OOC wins against NAU and CCU. Those OOC wins (plus a win against ISUr) are why I think they could be seeded at 8-3. Right now the 8 seed is already at 2 losses so it's quite possible in 3 weeks that the 7/8 seeds have 3 losses and WIU would be one of the more impressive 8-3 teams out there.

[skinny_uncle]

Outlook for the Salukis is pretty dim with Straub breaking a bone in his throwing hand. They will be lucky to get another win.

[Houndawg]

Outlook for the Salukis is pretty dim with Straub breaking a bone in his throwing hand. They will be lucky to get another win.

The one play in the first qtr they didn't flag

[ST_Lawson]

If WIU and UNI both finished at 6-5, who would get in? The bubble is a bit stronger this season, but could a 6-5 team get in again? I think so, and it could come down to those 2.

I dont think WIU has a chance at a seed.

If we finish 6-5, they should send back our playoff invite (if they do send one our way). I don't know about Illinois State, but we should be able to beat Indiana State and (now that Straub is unfortunately out for the season) Southern Illinois to get to 7 wins. I'm hoping we can get the next three though, get to 8-3 and, if we're lucky, still be in the discussion for a seed...but I don't know if even that is a possibility at this time.

Why did SDSU decide to finally play up to their full potential this weekend damnit?

[skinny_uncle]

The one play in the first qtr they didn't flag

Amen. There sure was a lot of laundry in this game.

[Thumper 76]

Why did SDSU decide to finally play up to their full potential this weekend damnit?

I don’t know, but I ain’t mad about it xdrunkyx


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[Professor Chaos]

Chaos ensued in the MVFC today but despite numerous upsets only SIU saw their postseason hopes dashed. Other than that everyone else stayed alive so 6 MVFC teams survived week 10 and all of them have realistic shots at the playoffs. I still think it's more likely the MVFC gets 5 teams into the postseason but 6 seems a much better possibility than it did a week ago. Here are the teams, in order, based on who I think has the easiest path to the playoffs (or is already in) compared to the toughest.


Locks

North Dakota St (8-1, 5-1)
Quality wins: WIU, UNI
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: USD, @ISUr
Despite the loss to SDSU today the Bison are in decent shape due to losses by USD and ISUr keeping them alone atop the conference. I think they're still in the top 4 seeds and if they win out they could sneak back up to #2. I think they can still get a playoff bye as a top 8 seed even with one more loss but their last two will not be easy and they showed today that they are beatable.

South Dakota St (7-2, 4-2)
Quality wins: @WIU, NDSU
Bad losses: @YSU (tough to call this a bad loss but SDSU is their only MVFC win other than winless ISUb)
Remaining games: ISUr, @USD
The Jacks announced to the country that they're back as national title contenders with their huge win over NDSU today and locked themselves into the playoff field in the process. They're building a great case for a high seed despite having 2 FCS losses (that Duquesne win in the non-conference is going to help them more than anyone thought at the time). They could play themselves into a top 4 seed if they win out and I think they'd be right on the brink of the seed line even with one more loss but their last two are far from easy so we'll see if they can continue to build on their current winning streak.

South Dakota (7-2, 4-2)
Quality wins: @Bowling Green, @WIU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @NDSU, SDSU
I still think the Yotes are locked into the playoffs no matter what but if they want to avoid a sweat they probably don't want to rest on their laurels and end the season on a 3 game losing streak. Their next game at NDSU against a Bison team coming off a loss is going to be tough and their last game at home against an SDSU team playing as good as anyone in the country right now won't be any easier. If they win out I could see them as a top 4 seed since they'd be knocking out a good chunk of the competition to get there and given the impressive wins thus far I think they could be seeded even if they split their last two.


Should be in

Western Illinois (6-3, 3-3)
Quality wins: @Coastal Carolina, @NAU, @UNI, @ISUr
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @ISUb, SIU
WIU got right today with a big road win at ISUr. They're not quite in yet but their last two games are very winnable and they only need one more win to lock themselves into the field. I think they'd have an interesting 6-5 resume if they slip up and lose their last 2 but I have a hard time seeing how they'd get in with a 3-5 conference record. They could potentially play themselves into a seed should they win out given their bevy of impressive wins and the fact that they'd be on a 3 game win streak to end the season.


Work left to do

Illinois St (6-3, 4-2)
Quality wins: USD
Bad losses: @SIU
Remaining games: @SDSU, NDSU
The Redbirds only need to win one of their last two to get in but given their remaining schedule that might be a tall order. They start with a road trip to Brookings to face a red hot SDSU and the finish at home against conference front runner NDSU. If they win both I think they could be on the cusp of a seed since they'd likely have the MVFC autobid but it seems likely they'll either be playing on Thanksgiving weekend or not at all given their underwhelming OOC performance and bad loss to SIU.


Must win out

Northern Iowa (5-4, 4-2)
Quality wins: @SDSU, USD
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @MSU, ISUb
The Panthers cleared their toughest remaining hurdle to get into the playoffs by beating USD at home today. They should be heavily favored in their last 2 and if they win out they're in but if they drop either it would be a huge blemish on a 6-5 resume. Their wins against the South Dakota schools would look good as would their 5-3 conference record so it is possible they could get in at 6-5 but I think it would be unlikely.


Eliminated

Youngstown St (4-5, 2-4) - The Penguins may not be completely dead but I don't see them having much of an argument even if they get to 6-5 since they'd be beating MVFC bottom feeders to get there. Their win over SDSU is starting to look really good though but I just don't think it'll be enough.
Southern Illinois (4-5, 2-4) - The Salukis loss to MSU today essentially ended their playoff hopes so they'll just be looking to build some momentum going into next year over these last couple weeks.
Missouri St (3-6, 2-4) - The Bears are showing they're not a pushover winning their last two. It's too late to make a difference this year but it at least gives them some optimism for 2018.
Indiana St (0-9, 0-6) - This team has flat out given up. 2018 (or basketball season) can't get here soon enough in Terre Haute.

[Reign of Terrier]

6 teams in would be crazy, but ultimately not unworthy IMO

[Professor Chaos]

6 teams in would be crazy, but ultimately not unworthy IMO
Yeah, I still think 5 is more likely and Illinois St might be the odd team out given how tough their remaining games are. But there's head scratching results in this league each week so who really knows.

[leatherneck177]

USD has a heck of a finish coming up, at 7-4, they are probably in, but one could argue 7-4 UNI has better resume and the head to head win. Both teams are in good shape, but it’s amazing considering it appeared they were on cruise control for a top seed a few weeks ago. This conference is just a total grind.

[clenz]

USD has a heck of a finish coming up, at 7-4, they are probably in, but one could argue 7-4 UNI has better resume and the head to head win. Both teams are in good shape, but it’s amazing considering it appeared they were on cruise control for a top seed a few weeks ago. This conference is just a total grind.

If both finish 7-4 UNI will be 6-2 in the conference and finish in 2nd place. USD will be 4-4 in conference play and lost their last 3.

No way in hell does USD get a look before UNI in that situation


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[leatherneck177]

If both finish 7-4 UNI will be 6-2 in the conference and finish in 2nd place. USD will be 4-4 in conference play and lost their last 3.

No way in hell does USD get a look before UNI in that situation


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that is what I was trying to point out. Understand that USD beat Western, just saying their schedule turned out to be heavily backloaded and in retrospect haven’t accomplished as much as some might have thought a few weeks ago.

[Jacks02]

If both finish 7-4 UNI will be 6-2 in the conference and finish in 2nd place. USD will be 4-4 in conference play and lost their last 3.

No way in hell does USD get a look before UNI in that situation


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Completely agree, UNI would be in before USD.

UNI would be 7-4 with head to head win against USD and finish the season winning 5 of 6.

USD could be on bubble at 7-4 as they'd have lost 4 of last 5 games and would have just one quality FCS win against WIU and decent win against YSU.

[leatherneck177]

Completely agree, UNI would be in before USD.

UNI would be 7-4 with head to head win against USD and finish the season winning 5 of 6.

USD could be on bubble at 7-4 as they'd have lost 4 of last 5 games and would have just one quality FCS win against WIU and decent win against YSU.

Exactly.

[strike00]

USD is going to be really, really nervous at 7-4. That SDSU @ USD is going to be a great great game with a lot riding on it.

The Panthers need to beat the bottom of the valley. Playing well but easier said than done.

What a crazy conference season.

[Professor Chaos]

USD has a heck of a finish coming up, at 7-4, they are probably in, but one could argue 7-4 UNI has better resume and the head to head win. Both teams are in good shape, but it’s amazing considering it appeared they were on cruise control for a top seed a few weeks ago. This conference is just a total grind.
I think any MVFC team is in at 7-4 but USD would probably be the shakiest of anyone since they would be on a 3 game losing streak to end the season. Ask 2013 YSU about how the selection committee feels about late season slides. They started the year 8-1 and finished 8-4 which included back-to-back blowouts to NDSU and SDSU to end the year (hmmm... sounds like a familiar schedule) and were left out of the field despite having 8 D1 wins.

[JayJ79]

Ask 2013 YSU about how the selection committee feels about late season slides. They started the year 8-1 and finished 8-4 which included back-to-back blowouts to NDSU and SDSU to end the year (hmmm... sounds like a familiar schedule) and were left out of the field despite having 8 D1 wins.

You can take the schedule similarities even further:

2013 YSU's last 3 games:
@UNI (20-22 loss)
NDSU (17-35 loss)
SDSU (13-42 loss)

2017 USD's last 3 games:
@UNI (29-34 loss)
@NDSU (tbd)
SDSU (tbd)

Though I'd also like to point out that 2 of YSU13's 8 division I wins were against non-scholly PFL teams and 1 was against an NEC team, where as USD17 only played one PFL team.

[Professor Chaos]

You can take the schedule similarities even further:

2013 YSU's last 3 games:
@UNI (20-22 loss)
NDSU (17-35 loss)
SDSU (13-42 loss)

2017 USD's last 3 games:
@UNI (29-34 loss)
@NDSU (tbd)
SDSU (tbd)

Though I'd also like to point out that 2 of YSU13's 8 division I wins were against non-scholly PFL teams and 1 was against an NEC team, where as USD17 only played one PFL team.
Great point on the eerily similar end of season schedules for the two. But like you point out USD has an FBS win (which 2013 YSU didn't have) and the committee loooooves them some FBS wins. There's also an extra at large now without the MEAC auto that wasn't there in 2013 and I bet YSU would've been that extra team in in 2013 if that was the case back then.

[RabidRabbit]

USD will be in play-off. Their OOC win vs Bowling Green and a 4-4 conference slate will get them in. However, I think both Jacks and Yotes need to win out for a seed.

[RabidRabbit]

USD will be in playoff. Their OOC win vs Bowling Green and a 4-4 conference slate will get them in. However, I think both Jacks and Yotes need to win out for a seed. NDSU needs to win one of two to be seeded. If Bison should be on a 3 game losing streak, I can see them getting sent to either Vermillion or Brookings in the second round. Doubt very seriously though, that Bison fall twice more.

[WrenFGun]

I'd have USD out at 7-4 based on conference record and bubble quality. UNI is in if they win out.

[semobison]

You can take the schedule similarities even further:

2013 YSU's last 3 games:
@UNI (20-22 loss)
NDSU (17-35 loss)
SDSU (13-42 loss)

2017 USD's last 3 games:
@UNI (29-34 loss)
@NDSU (tbd)
SDSU (tbd)

Though I'd also like to point out that 2 of YSU13's 8 division I wins were against non-scholly PFL teams and 1 was against an NEC team, where as USD17 only played one PFL team.

Results are important. Y-town was beaten soundly in their final two games in 2013. If the Yotes lose their last two but they are close losses I think they will get in. Losing close games to top 10 teams should count for something. If they lose by double digits one or both games like the Guins did in 2013 they will be left out IMO.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Completely agree, UNI would be in before USD.

UNI would be 7-4 with head to head win against USD and finish the season winning 5 of 6.

USD could be on bubble at 7-4 as they'd have lost 4 of last 5 games and would have just one quality FCS win against WIU and decent win against YSU.


Agree.

UNI is a lock at 7-4 (6-2) IMO.

USD definitely could be on the bubble at 7-4. Is Bowling Green a good FBS win? Might be a lot of 7-4 teams out there fighting for a couple of spots.

[clenz]

Agree.

UNI is a lock at 7-4 (6-2) IMO.

USD definitely could be on the bubble at 7-4. Is Bowling Green a good FBS win? Might be a lot of 7-4 teams out there fighting for a couple of spots.

I don’t this Bowling Green is. They are 2-7, winless outside of the MAC and only MACs wins are other bottom feeders. Losing by an average of something like 18 points per game.

The real debate could be had at 7-4 4-4 WIU and USD. Both with bad FBS wins. Both failing to live up to first half hype.

USD has the head to head but that will have been long enough ago that it shouldn’t really matter. Looking at trending and WIU passes USD.


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[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I don’t this Bowling Green is. They are 2-7, winless outside of the MAC and only MACs wins are other bottom feeders. Losing by an average of something like 18 points per game.

The real debate could be had at 7-4 4-4 WIU and USD. Both with bad FBS wins. Both failing to live up to first half hype.

USD has the head to head but that will have been long enough ago that it shouldn’t really matter. Looking at trending and WIU passes USD.


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Probably

Watching USD/UNI on espn3, I love watching Farley (LB) play. Nose for the ball and very instinctive player. Would have loved to have him up here. If he was 2 or 3 inches taller he would be a good NFL LB....maybe he is now, IDK.

[Professor Chaos]

I don’t this Bowling Green is. They are 2-7, winless outside of the MAC and only MACs wins are other bottom feeders. Losing by an average of something like 18 points per game.

The real debate could be had at 7-4 4-4 WIU and USD. Both with bad FBS wins. Both failing to live up to first half hype.

USD has the head to head but that will have been long enough ago that it shouldn’t really matter. Looking at trending and WIU passes USD.


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Yeah, that would be interesting. WIU would clearly have the better wins but they'd have a bad loss in their last two if they do finish 7-4 and USD would have the head-to-head win. I'd lean towards giving WIU the edge but I think they'll finish 8-3 so it'll be moot.

[JayJ79]

Probably

Watching USD/UNI on espn3, I love watching Farley (LB) play. Nose for the ball and very instinctive player. Would have loved to have him up here. If he was 2 or 3 inches taller he would be a good NFL LB....maybe he is now, IDK.

That would have made for a very awkward dinner table had one of Coach Farley's sons expressed interest in playing for NDSU.

[mmiller_34]

USD will be in playoff. Their OOC win vs Bowling Green and a 4-4 conference slate will get them in. However, I think both Jacks and Yotes need to win out for a seed. NDSU needs to win one of two to be seeded. If Bison should be on a 3 game losing streak, I can see them getting sent to either Vermillion or Brookings in the second round. Doubt very seriously though, that Bison fall twice more.

You're probably right. The committee will likely look at USD's win versus Bowling Green as an impressive FBS win. However, in reality, Bowling Green is not a good football team. USD's win against WIU is more valuable in my eyes.

[leatherneck177]

Personally I don’t see any way a 7-4 Western is on the bubble at all. Good OOC wins, possibility of 6 road wins and wins against ISUr and UNI. No way they are on bubble at 7-4 IMO.

To my earlier point, UNI and USD are both in good shape at 7-4, I was just surprised to see what USD’s profile actually consisted of.

[clenz]

Personally I don’t see any way a 7-4 Western is on the bubble at all. Good OOC wins, possibility of 6 road wins and wins against ISUr and UNI. No way they are on bubble at 7-4 IMO.

To my earlier point, UNI and USD are both in good shape at 7-4, I was just surprised to see what USD’s profile actually consisted of.

Their profile isn’t that great, especially at 7-4.

Their OOC wins are
2-7 Bowling Green
0 scholarship and 0 wins against scholarship Drake
3-7 North Dakota (soon to be 3-8)

Their conference wins are

10th place ISUB
9th place SIU
7th place YSU
6th place WIU

They better be really damn worried come selection Sunday with that resume. Based on cumulated projections they’ll finish in 6th place after tie breaks. They will have lost 4 of their last 5, including their last 3. It will have been 3 full months since their WIU win. That game will carry little to no weight at that point.


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[CappinHard]

SDSU thoughts before and after the weekend combined - "we might miss the playOMG top 4 seed?!"

[Green1]

SDSU thoughts before and after the weekend combined - "we might miss the playOMG top 4 seed?!"



Superbowl!!!!!!

[CappinHard]

Superbowl!!!!!!

Or... Dakota Marker!!! It's a rivalry and the marker is on the line... of course we're going to be up for this game. If you want to say that it's our super bowl, go ahead, but it's part of what comes with the success NDSU has had. You should be used to it by now.

[Professor Chaos]

Most everything went according to plan in the MVFC today for a change and that means that 6 teams still have playoff hopes although there's a couple teams that have to be a little uneasy after today's results. I think it's most likely that the MVFC gets 5 teams into the postseason but 4 is probably more likely than 6. This will be my final installment this year of the 2017 MVFC playoff outlook since after next week everything will pretty much be decided. Here are the teams, in order, based on who I think has the easiest path to the playoffs (or is already in) compared to the toughest.


Locks

North Dakota St (9-1, 6-1)
Quality wins: @EWU, WIU, UNI, USD
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @ISUr
The Bison sent a message today with their emphatic win over USD. I think they're in line for the #2 seed if they beat ISUr next week as that would give them a 10-1 record and the outright MVFC title. I think they'll still get a playoff bye probably as the #6-#8 seed even with a loss and the Redbirds will be desperate for a win to keep their playoff hopes alive so NDSU definitely can't bank on a win next week in Normal.

South Dakota St (8-2, 5-2)
Quality wins: @WIU, NDSU, ISUr
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @USD
It wasn't pretty but the Jackrabbits kept the ball rolling today with an OT win over ISUr picking up their 4th straight win and further building a great case for a seed despite having 2 FCS losses. With Elon's loss I think they slid up to #6 today although that's probably their high point unless someone in the top 5 loses next week. They'll be facing a desperate rival in USD on the road next weekend in their final game and I think it's possible that they could be seeded even if they lose but they'll need some help and I'm sure they'd prefer to take the guesswork out of it as they would certainly be seeded with a win.


Should be in

Western Illinois (7-3, 4-3)
Quality wins: @Coastal Carolina, @NAU, UNI, @ISUr
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: SIU
WIU took care of business today against an overmatched ISUb team and the only reason I don't have them as a lock is because I think the bubble will be especially strong this year. I do think they're as close to a lock as you can be without being one given their quality wins to this point but if they lose to SIU next week that would be a bad loss for a team on the bubble. They could potentially be seeded should they win and get a little help given their bevy of quality wins and the fact that they'd be on a 3 game win streak to end the season but head-to-head losses to both South Dakota schools may leave them playing on Thanksgiving weekend even with a win.

South Dakota (7-3, 4-3)
Quality wins: @Bowling Green, @WIU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: SDSU
I was forced to take the Yotes out of the "Locks" section given the very real possibility that they end the season on a 3 game losing streak and the fact that they were demolished in Fargo today. They face in-state rival SDSU in their last game and they better win or at least lose respectably if they don't want to be sweating next Sunday (ask 2013 YSU what it's like to end the season on the bubble after a 3 game losing streak including back-to-back blowout losses at the hands of NDSU and SDSU). The crazy thing is if they beat SDSU next weekend I think they'd have a very real shot at still getting seeded since they'd probably finish 2nd in the MVFC pecking order with 8 wins and head to head wins over SDSU and WIU (who would be the other 8 win MVFC teams) but with a loss, especially if it's a convincing one, they could very well be out.

Northern Iowa (6-4, 5-2)
Quality wins: @SDSU, USD
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: ISUb
The Panthers are basically in since it would be impossible to leave out a 7-4 (6-2) MVFC team with wins over both South Dakota schools and they finish with winless (and hapless) ISUb. They'll certainly be playing on Thanksgiving weekend though but they'll be a tough out for whoever they draw in the 1st round and a challenge for whatever seeded team they face in the 2nd round if they do win that 1st round game. Regardless, this is probably a position most Panther fans are completely fine with given their 2-3 start this year.


On the bubble

Illinois St (6-4, 4-3)
Quality wins: USD
Bad losses: @SIU
Remaining games: NDSU
The Redbirds' playoff hopes are on life support after an OT loss on the road in Brookings today against SDSU. They finish with a must-win game against conference leader NDSU who will also be motivated to win as they're fighting for playoff seeding position. With a loss they're almost certainly out given their only quality win is against USD and they have a very bad loss to SIU on their resume. The good news is finishing the season against NDSU gives them a chance to separate themselves from the rest of the bubble teams by having a potential signature victory in week 12 when everyone on the playoff selection committee will be watching closely.


Eliminated

Youngstown St (5-5, 3-4) - It's too little too late for the Penguins as they very well could end on a 3 game winning streak but given the strength of the bubble this year and their only quality win being SDSU I don't see them having a chance to get in at 6-5.
Southern Illinois (4-6, 2-5) - The Salukis are finishing the season in a tailspin and given their injury situation it's not that surprising. They've shown that they're not a pushover and they do finish with a meaningful game against WIU in Macomb but it looks like their next win won't happen until 2018.
Missouri St (3-7, 2-5) - The Bears showed some admirable late season fight today against UNI and have really throughout late October and November but their season has essentially been over for a while and they can only hope to improve in 2018.
Indiana St (0-10, 0-7) - This team has flat out given up. 2018 (or basketball season) can't get here soon enough in Terre Haute.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Nice work!

[clenz]

I just did the tie break. Looks like we can't win the auto. NDSU has that locked up. Sadly


Three or More Teams Tied
(1) If at any point a tie is broken using the multiple-tie tiebreaker procedures and only two teams remain tied, the remaining teams shall revert to the two-way tiebreaker (head-to-head).
(2) If the tied teams all played one another, the team with the best cumulative record involving games among the tied teams shall be declared the NCAA automatic qualifier.
(3) If the tied teams all played one another and have identical records against the other tied teams, then each team’s record against all common conference opponents shall be used to determine the NCAA automatic bid. If teams are still tied, then each team’s record against the next highest common opponent in the conference standings shall determine the automatic bid.
(4) If the tied teams did not play each other, then each team’s record against common conference opponents shall be used to determine the automatic bid. If the tied teams did not play each other, but one team played and defeated the other two teams, that team is champion.
(5) If the teams are still tied and they did not play each other, then each team’s record against the next highest common opponent in the conference standings shall determine the automatic bid.
(6) If the teams are still tied, the latest available computer ranking used by the NCAA selection committee shall be used.




So.....


#2:
All teams would be 1-1
UNI beat SDSU lost to NDSU
SDSU beat NDSU lost to UNI
NDSU beat UNI lost to NDSU


So we go to #3


#3
Common opponents are MSU, USD, WIU, and YSU - UNI missed ISUr, SDSU missed ISUB and NDSU missed SIU
NDSU vs those 4: 4-0
UNI vs those 4: 3-1 (W: MSU, USD and YSU...L: WIU)
SDSU vs those 4: 3-1 (W: MSU USD WIU...L:YSU)


That gives NDSU the autobid.


It also means we stop there as we are at 2 teams for "second place", which sends it head to head. Meaning the official standings would be NDSU UNI SDSU

[BisonTru]

Clenz so is this correct:

NDSU wins - they win the confernce out right

NDSU loses and UNI and SDSU wins - NDSU wins the Auto

NDSU loses and SDSU wins, UNI loses - SDSU wins the Auto

NDSU loses and UNI wins, SDSU loses - NDSU wins the Auto

Correct?

[clenz]

Clenz so is this correct:

NDSU wins - they win the confernce out right

NDSU loses and UNI and SDSU wins - NDSU wins the Auto

NDSU loses and SDSU wins, UNI loses - SDSU wins the Auto

NDSU loses and UNI wins, SDSU loses - NDSU wins the Auto

Correct?
Yup

The official standings of the top in all of those situations

NDSU 7-1
UNI 6-2
SDSU 6-2
WIU 5-3

NDSU 6-2
UNI 6-2
SDSU 6-2
WIU 5-3...head to head over ISUr puts them here instead of ISUr.

SDSU 6-2
NDSU 6-2
WIU 5-3....head to head over UNI
UNI 5-3

NDSU 6-2
UNI 6-2
SDSU 5-3...because of how it works SDSU's win over NDSU takes precedence
WIU 5-3

[BisonTru]

Well, then, Go Panthers....

Although the Auto doesn't really matter.

[clenz]

Well, then, Go Panthers....

Although the Auto doesn't really matter.
It doesn't at all. It changes nothing for any team other than NDSU going from a 2 seed to like the 5 or 6 probably.

I'm just getting desperate to have anything to claim. A shared title in 2017 is good enough right now. I've accepted we will never get a national title. Conference crowns will do it for me from now on

[Professor Chaos]

Well, then, Go Panthers....

Although the Auto doesn't really matter.
Yep. Don't **** it up Panthers!



Or just take care of your own **** Bison!

[katss07]

Where does NDSU fall if they lose. Im thinking 6 or 7, but wanted to get an MVFC prospective. A win puts them at least in the 3 spot IMO, although 2 isn’t out of the question at all.

[achrist70]

Personally I think with a win NDSU get the #2, I just don't see Jacksonville State, Central Arkansas, SHSU, or Wofford having a better resume. The Bison would have 1 loss to a top 10 team, and 5 wins over ranked opponents.

If they lose, which I don't see happening (but could), I would say they fall to #6 or #7. I don't think you see them out or down to #8 mainly because that would put them against the #1 in the quarters which would be a punishment to the the #1.

[JSUSoutherner]

Personally I think with a win NDSU get the #2, I just don't see Jacksonville State, Central Arkansas, SHSU, or Wofford having a better resume. The Bison would have 1 loss to a top 10 team, and 5 wins over ranked opponents.

If they lose, which I don't see happening (but could), I would say they fall to #6 or #7. I don't think you see them out or down to #8 mainly because that would put them against the #1 in the quarters which would be a punishment to the the #1.

Not sure the Bison want to go to JMU. :D

[Gil Dobie]

Not sure the Bison want to go to JMU. :D

Gotta beat the best to be the best. Anytime, Anywhere!

[Professor Chaos]

Not sure the Bison want to go to JMU. :D
Can't speak for the players but I'd like to see them get a shot at retribution this postseason. Whether that's in Harrisonburg or Frisco I don't really care.


....actually Frisco would probably be more fun because I'd be there and the Thursday/Friday night bar banter with JMU fans would be pretty exceptional I'd suspect.

[ST_Lawson]

Not sure the Bison want to go to JMU. :D

Bison home losses since 2011 = 5
Bison away losses since 2011 = 2

I don't think it matters.

[Professor Chaos]

Bison home losses since 2011 = 5
Bison away losses since 2011 = 2

I don't think it matters.
The away losses is now 3..... ****ing jackrabbits!

The Bison did go almost 4 calendar years without losing a game away from the Fargodome though. From 12/11/2010 until 11/8/2014. That included 3 national titles and 4 FBS games.

[ST_Lawson]

The away losses is now 3..... ****ing jackrabbits!

The Bison did go almost 4 calendar years without losing a game away from the Fargodome though. From 12/11/2010 until 11/8/2014. That included 3 national titles and 4 FBS games.

Sorry, I math bad.

Point is....away...home...doesn't really seem to make much of a difference.