Sagarin Preseason Ratings

[ElCid]

Here are the top 30 according to Sagarin. Just for kicks and grins I put the AGS rank after the team as well.


https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2017/team/




#
Team
AGS Rank


1
NDSU
2


2
SDSU
3


3
JMU
1


4
YSU
10


5
Northern Iowa
22


6
Wofford
8


7
JSU
7


8
Illinois St
18


9
SHSU
5


10
E Wash
4


11
The Citadel
14


12
Richmond
6


13
North Dakota
11


14
Villanova
9


15
W Illinois
20


16
Samford
17


17
Chattanooga
12


18
C Arkansas
13


19
N Arizona
26


20
Harvard
37


21
S Dakota
33


22
New Hampshire
15


23
Cal Poly
21


24
Charleston Southern
16


25
S Illinois
NR


26
Tenn-Martin
36


27
Montana
28


28
McNeese St
29


29
S Utah
40


30
Kennesaw St
NR

[Professor Chaos]

Only 5 MVFC teams in the top 8 and only 8 in the top 25. No respect for Missouri St and Indiana St!

[ElCid]

Also, just for kicks and grins, here is the rating order per conference.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2017/conference/



1
MVFC


2
Southern


3
Big Sky


4
CAA


5
Ohio Valley


6
Big South


7
Ivy


8
Patriot


9
Southland


10
Northeast


11
SWAC-West


12
MEAC


13
Pioneer


14
SWAC-East



Or compare it to Massey

http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf2017&sub=11605&c=1




1
MVFC


2
CAA


3
Southern


4
Big Sky


5
Big South


6
Southland


7
Ohio Valley


8
Patriot


9
Ivy


10
Northeast


11
SWAC-West


12
Pioneer


13
MEAC


14
SWAC-East

[Daytripper]

Also, just for kicks and grins, here is the rating order per conference.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2017/conference/



1
MVFC


2
Southern


3
Big Sky


4
CAA


5
Ohio Valley


6
Big South


7
Ivy


8
Patriot


9
Southland


10
Northeast


11
SWAC-West


12
MEAC


13
Pioneer


14
SWAC-East



Or compare it to Massey

http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf2017&sub=11605&c=1




1
MVFC


2
CAA


3
Southern


4
Big Sky


5
Big South


6
Southland


7
Ohio Valley


8
Patriot


9
Ivy


10
Northeast


11
SWAC-West


12
Pioneer


13
MEAC


14
SWAC-East



























I know the Southland is a bit weak, but there is no way we are worse than the Patriot and Ivy leagues.

[Bison56]

xpopcornx

[ElCid]

I know the Southland is a bit weak, but there is no way we are worse than the Patriot and Ivy leagues.


Well it is just an average/mean of the teams in the conferences. ACU, NW St, Houston Baptist, and Incarnate word are currently dragging down that average. But SHSU and Central Ark are propping it up.

[underdawg]

Ha-the Saluki Dawgs ahead of Grizzlies

[Redbird 4th & short]

I think AGS has it more right than Sagarin at this point .. unusual in that YSU and UNI both expect to struggle this year .. though for different reason. And while I feel like my ISUr will finish top 10, maybe top 8, I don't think we deserve 8th in week 0.

So dare I admit, MVFC is over-rated by Sagarin !!!

p.s. I have not ruled out possibility that UNI will surprise this season. Looks like QB Dunne will play and they have new coaching blood .. moight be good for what ales their offenses. Defense should be very good again regardless.


Here are the top 30 according to Sagarin. Just for kicks and grins I put the AGS rank after the team as well.


https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2017/team/




#
Team
AGS Rank


1
NDSU
2


2
SDSU
3


3
JMU
1


4
YSU
10


5
Northern Iowa
22


6
Wofford
8


7
JSU
7


8
Illinois St
18


9
SHSU
5


10
E Wash
4


11
The Citadel
14


12
Richmond
6


13
North Dakota
11


14
Villanova
9


15
W Illinois
20


16
Samford
17


17
Chattanooga
12


18
C Arkansas
13


19
N Arizona
26


20
Harvard
37


21
S Dakota
33


22
New Hampshire
15


23
Cal Poly
21


24
Charleston Southern
16


25
S Illinois
NR


26
Tenn-Martin
36


27
Montana
28


28
McNeese St
29


29
S Utah
40


30
Kennesaw St
NR

[cx500d]

9 places ahead of the goofers...Thats about right. I'd go on gooferhole and troll them, but I was given a lifetime ban. I guess I can make up a new login.

[TheKingpin28]

xpopcornx

This and more of this.

[JSUSoutherner]

Sagarin Ratings were posted on GJS. Thought I'd bring them here.

FCS Top 5:

1.) NDSU (51 overall)
2.) SDSU (76)
3.) JSU (84)
4.) JMU (89)
5.) YSU (90)

Thoughts?

I was surprised JMU wasn't higher. I'm also surprised YSU is still that high. I'm sure it makes sense in Sagarins magic formulas. But I don't understand them so... xdontknowx


http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

[TheKingpin28]

https://media.tenor.com/images/54451401d52c0dd2fe9ee5752857d53c/tenor.gif

This is going to be good!

#inb4allSHSUandJMUfansshowupandlosetheir****

[ElCid]

Have they been updated. Here was earlier thread.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?194849-Sagarin-Preseason-Ratings

[JSUSoutherner]

Have they been updated. Here was earlier thread.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?194849-Sagarin-Preseason-Ratings

Yes.

[DirtyDukes]

<shrugs>

Looks like we won't go up after we beat ECU as they're behind us on the list.

[cx500d]

<shrugs>

Looks like we won't go up after we beat ECU as they're behind us on the list.

Then you better beat them

[DirtyDukes]

Then you better beat them

I honestly think we will beat them soundly. I'd say by more than we beat NDSU

[cx500d]

I honestly think we will beat them soundly. I'd say by more than we beat NDSU


You should they are a terrible team.

[TheKingpin28]

I honestly think we will beat them soundly. I'd say by more than we beat NDSU

ECU is the new Eastern Michigan.

[DirtyDukes]

ECU is the new Eastern Michigan.

What's that mean? Sorry, East Coast Bias.

They claim they have only lost to an FCS team once.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

You should they are a terrible team.


JMU should beat them this year. They will be crap this year.

[IBleedYellow]

Realize that at this point Sagarin is using last year data also...


Soooooooo it's not really that accurate yet until 3-5 weeks into the season.

[TheKingpin28]

What's that mean? Sorry, East Coast Bias.

They claim they have only lost to an FCS team once.

Eastern Michigan was god awful for years on end and ECU is now headed down that road. Considering Michigan is in the east, I don't know how this would be East Coast Bias?

[JSUSoutherner]

<shrugs>

Looks like we won't go up after we beat ECU as they're behind us on the list.

You guys will probably jump us. Until we beat GT in week 2 anyway.

[Professor Chaos]

<shrugs>

Looks like we won't go up after we beat ECU as they're behind us on the list.
You can still go up even if you beat a team ranked lower than you. You just have to outperform Sagarin's statistical model. So if Sagarin's model says you should be a team by 20 and you beat them by 40 it helps that team move up. However in this case Sagarin actually has ECU as the favorite once you add in the 2.41 points for homefield advantage. So a win by any margin would help JMU in Sagarin's model. The more they win by the more it helps. As it stands Sagarin has ECU as roughly a 1.5 point favorite.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

The ECU-JMU banter has been awesome! Those two fan bases have been going at it all summer.

The Pirates are traditionally a quality FBS program that produces NFL players and beats respected P5 programs. They were suppose to be one of the flagship football programs in the AAC. However, they've been pretty crappy the last 2 years. This is a very interesting game. IMO, it's basically a toss-up with a slight edge to JMU because they've proven they know how to win.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

FYI, here's a concise view of the Sag ratings just for FCS:

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/college-sports-journal-sagarin-fcs-top-25-preseason-2017/

[ElCid]

Have they been updated? Here was earlier thread.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?194849-Sagarin-Preseason-Ratings

[cx500d]

I see Jacksonville State made a move and is now ahead of JMU. Obviously there is something besides last year in these rankings since he has JMU down in the 4 spot which seems low for a returning champion with a good chunk of returning people.

[ElCid]

Realize that at this point Sagarin is using last year data also...


Soooooooo it's not really that accurate yet until 3-5 weeks into the season.

I have to read up on it, but don't they take a multi-year factor into account? Each weighted with last year the most? I thought I read that once. Either way it is not very accurate as you say, for this year.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I merged the two threads...hope that was correct.

[caribbeanhen]

Realize that at this point Sagarin is using last year data also...


Soooooooo it's not really that accurate yet until 3-5 weeks into the season.

they are? Did JMU need to win by more in the Tindome?

[caribbeanhen]

Northern Iowa #5, the way Clenz has been talking about his team he must of been expecting Harvey to pay a visit....

[ST_Lawson]

What's that mean? Sorry, East Coast Bias.

They claim they have only lost to an FCS team once.

In addition to being terrible, EMU is one of those schools that has to do some "attendance adjusting" every other year or so to stay within the FBS minimum.
Looks like the last season they reported accurate numbers was 2015 when they averaged 4,897 per home game and only pulled just over 5.6k for their Homecoming game: http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_records/Attendance/2015.pdf

In 2016 they "magically" averaged 17,677 fans per home game. 2014 was 15,025, but 2013 was another "accurately reported" 4,051 per home game.
In general, you can expect somewhere around 5,000 fans for a home game there, although they find corporate sponsors to buy extra tickets at a significantly reduced rate when needed.

They have ugly grey turf (https://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2014/8/30/6087979/so-eastern-michigans-field-is-really-grey-looks-like-its-in-black-and), and a horrible stadium (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a2/RynearsonStadiumHOME.jpg), but I'm sure it also doesn't help that they're literally 6 miles down the road from "The Big House" (https://goo.gl/maps/NqLRZ9Z9rBp).

And on a personal note, the last time I was at their stadium was when I found out that a friend of mine had died in a car accident (http://iagenweb.org/boards/delaware/obituaries/index.cgi?read=533365).

So...you know...they just all-around suck.

[POD Knows]

Any poll that has San Diego in the top 25 is suspect at best. xcoffeex

[ElCid]

Any poll that has San Diego in the top 25 is suspect at best. xcoffeex

Yeah but its a rating not a poll.:D