2017 Patsy Ratings: Lafayette

[Lehigh Football Nation]

https://lehighfootballnation.blogspot.com/2017/07/the-2017-patsy-ratings-no-2-lafayette.html

THE RANKINGS (WITH 1 To Go):

2. Lafayette - 68
3. Lehigh - 56
T4. Georgetown, Fordham - 54
6. Bucknell - 53
7. Colgate - 48

[van]

very impressive considering the coaching changes there

[RichH2]

Excellent class . Garrett coming from UR minimized staff turnover's impact on recruiting. Able to use the contacts he already had in place.
Pards' issue is not returning talent but the years of ineffective coaching.

[breezy]

Maybe I'm mathematically challenged, but it seems to me the total should be 69, not 68. (And that Bucknell's total should be 52, not 53.)

Just nitpicking. Appreciate LFN's work in putting all of this on paper.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Good haul by Lafayette. It will come down to development though. Tavani and his staff in general were terrible imo at that the last 5-7 years.

I should have called Holy Cross having the best class two weeks ago. I don't pay too much attention to recruiting, especially at the FCS level, but they seemed to have nailed it. Should payoff for whoever takes over for Gilmore after this year :D

[LUHawker]

One thing that occurred to me while reading the various PL Patsy ratings is that consistency probably matters more than an individual recruitment class rating/ranking. It would be interesting to see the average over the past 4-5 years. My guess is that we'd see Colgate, Fordham and Lehigh all right around the same average and with some separation from the rest of the schools in the league which probably have a similar average but below the first group.

[van]

One thing that occurred to me while reading the various PL Patsy ratings is that consistency probably matters more than an individual recruitment class rating/ranking. It would be interesting to see the average over the past 4-5 years. My guess is that we'd see Colgate, Fordham and Lehigh all right around the same average and with some separation from the rest of the schools in the league which probably have a similar average but below the first group.

I will look for the data, Chuck should have the data

[van]

data from past 4 years, remember Fordham had a jump start on schollies, seem to remember that Carney looked at the idea of averages vs league finish a while back, not very conclusive if I recall




2016
2015
2014
2013
AVG


FORDHAM
34
88
63
70
37.8


LEHIGH
57
72
79
51
37.8


LAFAYETTE
50
64
77
49
35.3


HOLY CROSS
49
58
76
34
33.5


COLGATE
57
55
76
73
32.8


GEORGETOWN
37
82
43
29
31.3


BUCKNELL
53
85
39
51
31.0





2016 league standings:


Lehigh

6

0



Fordham

5

1



Colgate

4
2



Bucknell

3

3



Holy Cross

2
4



Lafayette
1
5


Georgetown

0
6

[LUHawker]

data from past 4 years, remember Fordham had a jump start on schollies, seem to remember that Carney looked at the idea of averages vs league finish a while back, not very conclusive if I recall




2016
2015
2014
2013
AVG


FORDHAM
34
88
63
70
37.8


LEHIGH
57
72
79
51
37.8


LAFAYETTE
50
64
77
49
35.3


HOLY CROSS
49
58
76
34
33.5


COLGATE
57
55
76
73
32.8


GEORGETOWN
37
82
43
29
31.3


BUCKNELL
53
85
39
51
31.0




2016 league standings:


Lehigh

6

0



Fordham

5

1



Colgate

4
2



Bucknell

3

3



Holy Cross

2
4



Lafayette
1
5


Georgetown

0
6





Interesting comparison. Surprised that Colgate's average is at the lower end. Also interesting to see that the absolute scores are trending down in '16 and now '17, which is most likely due to switch to schollies and probably lower recruiting class sizes (which probably also affects points for the 'Needs' categories - more bodies more needs met - and maybe more trigger points).

[TheValleyRaider]

data from past 4 years, remember Fordham had a jump start on schollies, seem to remember that Carney looked at the idea of averages vs league finish a while back, not very conclusive if I recall...

Interesting to look at. I've been thinking about doing something similar, and possibly even going further back (carney started doing these around 2007). Haven't gotten around to it yet for work reasons, but maybe soon...

In thinking about it, one aspect to consider would not be point averages or totals, but relative point differences. Colgate's 48 points this year, for example, is only 8 behind Lehigh in 3rd, while the Hawks are 12 behind Lafayette. How close teams are, or aren't, to one another might allow for more nuance rather than just adding up points. It may also help to account for the point system changing over the years.

[van]

Interesting to look at. I've been thinking about doing something similar, and possibly even going further back (carney started doing these around 2007). Haven't gotten around to it yet for work reasons, but maybe soon...

In thinking about it, one aspect to consider would not be point averages or totals, but relative point differences. Colgate's 48 points this year, for example, is only 8 behind Lehigh in 3rd, while the Hawks are 12 behind Lafayette. How close teams are, or aren't, to one another might allow for more nuance rather than just adding up points. It may also help to account for the point system changing over the years.

not usually many transfers to PL, but committee needs to start adding that factor into the score, a transfer could be expected to have more impact than an equivalently rated Fr, Fordham QB for example

"needs" is also a subjective area, sometimes the need area is obvious but in the case of Lehigh this year I would argue that there is no position that represents a need that is arguably greater than the others and our 20 recruits are pretty much balanced across the board and since the D has been our Achilles you could argue that DL, LB and DB are the 3 biggest need areas, very subjective

[DFW HOYA]

data from past 4 years, remember Fordham had a jump start on schollies, seem to remember that Carney looked at the idea of averages vs league finish a while back, not very conclusive if I recall

Averages corrected:





2016
2015
2014
2013
AVG


FORDHAM
34
88
63
70
63.7


LEHIGH
57
72
79
51
64.8


LAFAYETTE
50
64
77
49
60.0


HOLY CROSS
49
58
76
34
54.2


COLGATE
57
55
76
73
65.2


GEORGETOWN
37
82
43
29
47.7


BUCKNELL
53
85
39
51
57.0




2016 league standings:


Lehigh

6

0



Fordham

5

1



Colgate

4
2



Bucknell

3

3



Holy Cross

2
4



Lafayette
1
5


Georgetown

0
6

[van]

Averages corrected:





2016
2015
2014
2013
AVG


FORDHAM
34
88
63
70
63.7


LEHIGH
57
72
79
51
64.8


LAFAYETTE
50
64
77
49
60.0


HOLY CROSS
49
58
76
34
54.2


COLGATE
57
55
76
73
65.2


GEORGETOWN
37
82
43
29
47.7


BUCKNELL
53
85
39
51
57.0




2016 league standings:


Lehigh

6

0



Fordham

5

1



Colgate

4
2



Bucknell

3

3



Holy Cross

2
4



Lafayette
1
5


Georgetown

0
6





thanks DFW, used an avg function and it did not work correctly and duh I did not proof my work, guess I've been retired too long

[carney2]

Averages corrected:





2016
2015
2014
2013
AVG


FORDHAM
34
88
63
70
63.7


LEHIGH
57
72
79
51
64.8


LAFAYETTE
50
64
77
49
60.0


HOLY CROSS
49
58
76
34
54.2


COLGATE
57
55
76
73
65.2


GEORGETOWN
37
82
43
29
47.7


BUCKNELL
53
85
39
51
57.0




2016 league standings:


Lehigh

6

0



Fordham

5

1



Colgate

4
2



Bucknell

3

3



Holy Cross

2
4



Lafayette
1
5


Georgetown

0
6





Thank you, DFW. I was beginning to think that my three years in the 6th grade were wasted.

Toward the end of my tenure as Chief Patsy I undertook a look back to see how things worked out. Can't find the thread, and my memory isn't what it used to was, but I seem to remember that somehow seniors in the year I examined had their Patsy Points increased by a factor of 3, juniors by 2, sophomores by 1, and freshmen, on the theory that they wouldn't contribute much at all, were ignored, as in zero. It was much more complex than that, but then, as I said, my memory isn't what it used to be, and never was. Incredibly, in the single year examined, the Patsies ended up predicting the order of finish for the League almost perfectly. Dumb luck, I know, but it's all I have for this discussion.