Final Bracketology

[FargoBison]

Albany at Lehigh vs 1. NDSU
Villanova at UNH vs 8. UND
Illinois St at Chattanooga vs 5. JSU
St Francis at YSU vs 4. JMU


CSU at Wofford vs 6. The Citadel
USD at Cal Poly vs 3. SHSU
Weber State at UCA vs 7. SDSU
NC A&T at Richmond vs 2. EWU




Autobids: EWU, Charleston Southern, JMU, SDSU, St. Francis, Jacksonville State, Lehigh, San Diego, The Citadel, SHSU


At Large: NDSU,Chattanooga, Richmond, UND, UCA, YSU, Cal Poly, Villanova, Wofford, Albany, UNH, Illinois State, Weber State, NC A&T


Bubble: Samford, Fordham, UT Martin, SLU


Stats Bracket....


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cxrut3qXUAQiFm-.jpg:large


NoBowls...


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxrwxEEUsAAyUPJ.jpg:large

[JSUSoutherner]

No way we go from 1 to 5 in two weeks with two wins. We are at least a 3 seed.

[FargoBison]

No way we go from 1 to 5 in two weeks with two wins. We are at least a 3 seed.

I thought about 4...could go either way. I am fairly confident in SHSU moving up though.

[Professor Chaos]

I think Samford is in. Wins over Wofford and Central Arkansas will be too hard to ignore. And don't claim losing to ETSU cooked their goose when NC A&T just got stomped by NC Central.


No way we go from 1 to 5 in two weeks with two wins. We are at least a 3 seed.
JSU should be the 6 IMO. It's tough to fathom if you look at their resume in a vacuum but there are 6 really good teams this year and I think JSU has proven the least of all of them.

[CappinHard]

No way we go from 1 to 5 in two weeks with two wins. We are at least a 3 seed.

Seeds 2-6 will be very interesting. Arguments could be made for a number of combinations there.

[FargoBison]

I think Samford is in. Wins over Wofford and Central Arkansas will be too hard to ignore. And don't claim losing to ETSU cooked their goose when NC A&T just got stomped by NC Central.


JSU should be the 6 IMO. It's tough to fathom if you look at their resume in a vacuum but there are 6 really good teams this year and I think JSU has proven the least of all of them.

Honestly, if Samford is the last team in...ISUR might very well be the odd man out. I have some concerns about the committee overvaluing NC A&T.

[RootinFerDukes]

So SOS won't haunt SHSU, despite the fact that the Southland is one of the worst FCS conferences?

[BisonTru]

My take




Autos - Green
At large - Yellow






Seeds
Play-ins





1
North Dakota St
Charleston Southern

San Diego



2
Eastern Washington
St. Francis

Cal Poly
1. North Dakota St


3
James Madison
San Diego





4
Sam Houston St
Lehigh

Albany
8. North Dakota


5
The Citadel
Youngstown St

Illionis St



6
Jacksonville St
Richmond





7
South Dakota St
Villanova

Youngstown St



8
North Dakota
Cenral Arkansas

Lehigh
4. Sam Houston St




Chattanooga







Wofford

Wofford
5. The Citadel




Albany

Charleston South





New Hampshire







Illinois St







Cal Poly

Richmond





Weber St

St. Francis
3. James Madison




Tenn-Martin









Chattanooga
6. Jacksonville St






Tenn-Martin















Central Arkansas







Weber St
7. South Dakota St














Villanova
2. Eastern Washington






New Hampshire















Last 4 Out:







Fordham







Samford







NC A&T







Duquensne

[blackfordpu]

So SOS won't haunt SHSU, despite the fact that the Southland is one of the worst FCS conferences?
Same can be said for OVC but everyone is so focused on SLC it's sickening.

Sent from my HTC One A9 using Tapatalk

[Professor Chaos]

Honestly, if Samford is the last team in...ISUR might very well be the odd man out. I have some concerns about the committee overvaluing NC A&T.
I don't doubt that. I think Samford at 6-4 (with a D2 win) gets in over ISUr at 6-5. I think both should get in over NC A&T but it's so hard to know what the committee will do with them. They always seemed to give MEAC teams with gaudy records the inside track to at-large berths in the past but last year they turned away 8-3 Bethune-Cookman. We'll see this year how much weight the MEAC can pull in the committee boardroom with no representation.

[FargoBison]

So SOS won't haunt SHSU, despite the fact that the Southland is one of the worst FCS conferences?

Well they are undefeated and behind two one loss teams....I'm punishing them a little bit.

The only thing I will say is I would be shocked if SHSU is not a top 4 seed.

[RabidRabbit]

Albany at Lehigh vs 1. NDSU
UNH at Villanova vs 8. UND
Illinois St at Chattanooga vs 5. JSU
St Francis at YSU vs 4. JMU


CSU at Wofford vs 6. The Citadel
USD at Cal Poly vs 3. SHSU
Weber State at UCA vs 7. SDSU
NC A&T at Richmond vs 2. EWU




Autobids: EWU, Charleston Southern, JMU, SDSU, St. Francis, Jacksonville State, Lehigh, San Diego, The Citadel, SHSU


At Large: NDSU,Chattanooga, Richmond, UND, UCA, YSU, Cal Poly, Villanova, Wofford, Albany, UNH, Illinois State, Weber State, NC A&T


Bubble: Samford, Fordham, UT Martin, SLU


This would be an excellent brackets and games.

Sent from my LG-K373 using Tapatalk

[TheKingpin28]

With Selection Sunday on the horizon, IMO, the following can be established:



#1 through #6 is fluid but NDSU has the best chance at locking up the #1 overall seed.
Whoever gets the #5 and #6 seed will be furious and an #EastCoastBias #CommitteeIsRigged #SouthernSpeed and/or #SOSgate thread will erupt.
#7 and #8 will be some combination of SDSU/UND.
Chatty's defense looked solid against #RollTide and that does not bode well for whoever gets matched-up with them in the 1st Round
At least 1 team will be hitting the weight room this off season and they will come out next season fired up, more than evah!
SHSU hopefully proved all the doubters (including me) that they are legit contender.
Casey's Breakfast Pizza is still the best and will be had by said poster
YSU, Nova, and Lehigh are the best non-seeded teams.
ISUr + NC A&T will be the last 2 in and Samford + Weber State will be the last 2 out
Brian Hutchinson will be the most loved/most hated man in the FCS

And lastly...
NDSU should NOT have to play SDSU in the 2nd round since they did not **** the bed!

[FargoBison]

Stats Bracket

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cxrut3qXUAQiFm-.jpg:large

[FargoBison]

NoBowls Bracket

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxrwxEEUsAAyUPJ.jpg:large

[TheKingpin28]

Stats Bracket

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cxrut3qXUAQiFm-.jpg:large

I'll have what their having! Damn NDSU straight up gets a pass to the Quarters which can heal up PGT, Planck and Wimbush (I know their injuries are not that bad), but possibly seeing Nova and UND beat each other up, that would a gift from the FCS football gods!

Edit: That bottom half of the left side is murders row though! That is just brutal.

[TheKingpin28]

NoBowls Bracket

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxrwxEEUsAAyUPJ.jpg:large

And EWU is almost getting a pass to Quarters in this one

[FargoBison]

And EWU is almost getting a pass to Quarters in this one

Yeah...the top half of that bracket looks kind of stacked.

[Bison56]

Same can be said for OVC but everyone is so focused on SLC it's sickening.

Sent from my HTC One A9 using Tapatalk
I agree the OVC is a joke.

[Professor Chaos]

Whoever gets the #5 and #6 seed will be furious and an #EastCoastBias #CommitteeIsRigged #SouthernSpeed and/or #SOSgate thread will erupt.

This is an absolute unequivocal fact.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

And EWU is almost getting a pass to Quarters in this one

I'd take my chances with EWU (relative to NDSU, SHSU and The Citadel). Lehigh has the firepower on offense to score on EWU. The game would feature 3 of the Top 5-6 WR's in the country.

Both teams's "Ds" were terrible last year and killed their playoff chances. They're still not great but much better...

[TheKingpin28]

Yeah...the top half of that bracket looks kind of stacked.

I mean, NDSU kind of gets a pass as well, but why not switch SDSU and UND to avoid a rematch since one of the match-ups will be a bus trip, why not make it a team NDSU has not played. I get the de-facto Big Sky championship intriguing match-up is there, but I do not want to see SDSU until Frisco, if both teams can make it that far.

[Pitz]

USD at Cal Poly vs 3. SHSU


Heads up that USD and Cal Poly was a regular season match-up.

Like the bracket otherwise.

[TheKingpin28]

I'd take my chances with EWU (relative to NDSU, SHSU and The Citadel). Lehigh has the firepower on offense to score on EWU. The game would feature 3 of the Top 5-6 WR's in the country.

Both teams's defense were terrible last year and killed their playoff chances. They're still not great but much better...

If that were to happen and Lehigh knocks out EWU, there will be many praises sung by the FCS community. I cannot name one team, that actually wants to face them. If Lehigh wants them, please contact all the ADs and start a #WeWantEWU and make them feed the Lehigh into EWU. No complaints here.

[FargoBison]

Heads up that USD and Cal Poly was a regular season match-up.

Like the bracket otherwise.

They could play again, since splitting them involves having them both fly to play somebody else. We'll see how cheap the NCAA wants to get.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

If that were to happen and Lehigh knocks out EWU, there will be many praises sung by the FCS community. I cannot name one team, that actually wants to face them. If Lehigh wants them, please contact all the ADs and start a #WeWantEWU and make them feed the Lehigh into EWU. No complaints here.

We're talking the lesser of 3 or 4 evils, lol.

One game at a time. The FCS playoffs are a lot of about matchups like in March Madness. Lehigh has a much better team than Colgate had last year and they went 2-0 against the CAA including beating a highly ranked JMU team. Even so, Lehigh could very easily lose next week...

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I mean, NDSU kind of gets a pass as well, but why not switch SDSU and UND to avoid a rematch since one of the match-ups will be a bus trip, why not make it a team NDSU has not played. I get the de-facto Big Sky championship intriguing match-up is there, but I do not want to see SDSU until Frisco, if both teams can make it that far.


Bring them on. EWU and SDSU would be quite the "air show" in that game.

1000 yards passing between the teams?

xnodx

[Cocky]

Honestly, if Samford is the last team in...ISUR might very well be the odd man out. I have some concerns about the committee overvaluing NC A&T.
UTM is a better team than either.

[Engineer86]

And EWU is almost getting a pass to Quarters in this one

In post 13 of the thread you list Lehigh as one of the 3 best non-seeded teams in the bracket, so that would imply that EW has one of the three toughest games to get to the quarters?

[Cocky]

I agree the OVC is a joke.
But several want ISUr in who loss to a middle of the pack OVC team?

[RootinFerDukes]

Well they are undefeated and behind two one loss teams....I'm punishing them a little bit.

The only thing I will say is I would be shocked if SHSU is not a top 4 seed.

Undefeated with a cupcake schedule doesn't mean much to me when you have 8-0 in better conference teams (CAA, socon, big sky). Even jsu has more of an argument to be ahead of them as ovc > slc.

[Cocky]

Undefeated with a cupcake schedule doesn't mean much to me when you have 8-0 in better conference teams (CAA, socon, big sky). Even jsu has more of an argument to be ahead of them as ovc > slc.

JSU would be undefeated in those conference, too.

[RootinFerDukes]

JSU would be undefeated in those conference, too.

Considering you needed 3 pick sixes to beat eastern Kentucky, I'm going to go out on a limb and say, no, you wouldn't have.

[Gil Dobie]

I'm going to have to keep up with the selection show on here, 15 foot, 6" thick, branch fell on my roof and wrecked my dish.

[Daytripper]

No way we go from 1 to 5 in two weeks with two wins. We are at least a 3 seed.


This sounds awfully familiar.... How does it feel?

[Redbird 4th & short]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23934&stc=1

Here are the resumes of the 7 bubble teams competing for final 5 spots. Same as before relies on Massey Opponent Rank (from last week, so I'm sure it shifted slightly after yesterday).

Here is link to my post on Redbird fanboard if you have trouble reading this screen print.

http://www.redbirdfan.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=9265

[The Boogie Down]

Albany at Lehigh vs 1. NDSU
Villanova at UNH vs 8. UND
Illinois St at Chattanooga vs 5. JSU
St Francis at YSU vs 4. JMU


CSU at Wofford vs 6. The Citadel
USD at Cal Poly vs 3. SHSU
Weber State at UCA vs 7. SDSU
NC A&T at Richmond vs 2. EWU




Autobids: EWU, Charleston Southern, JMU, SDSU, St. Francis, Jacksonville State, Lehigh, San Diego, The Citadel, SHSU


At Large: NDSU,Chattanooga, Richmond, UND, UCA, YSU, Cal Poly, Villanova, Wofford, Albany, UNH, Illinois State, Weber State, NC A&T


Bubble: Samford, Fordham, UT Martin, SLU


Stats Bracket....


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cxrut3qXUAQiFm-.jpg:large


NoBowls...


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxrwxEEUsAAyUPJ.jpg:large



Not sure how both Stats and NoBowls have NC A&T and Albany both in when Fordham finished higher than the two according to Sagarin. Higher Recent, higher Golden Mean, and higher Overall rating too. In the case of Albany, better record as well. Far better SOS than NC A&T as well.

Albany and NC A&T each received attention for each beating crappy MAC teams (you can check Buffalo's rating in the same screenshot below) but only Fordham beat 2 teams with higher Sagarin ratings.

Finally, despite not being known as a power conference, far from it, I think most would agree that the 2nd place Patriot League team is almost always better than the 2nd place MEAC team. Almost always better than the 6th place CAA team as well. Remember, Albany finished 6th in their league. Not only with a worse conference record than Maine, but they even lost the head-to-head to Maine. Yet, both Stats and NoBowls have them ahead of Maine. If it's because of their higher Sagarin rating than Maine, that's fine. But then what's the reasoning for having them ahead of Fordham too?

Updated (11/19/16) Sagarin grab from this morning showing Fordham currently ahead of both Albany and NC A&T:

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23935&stc=1

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23934&stc=1

Here are the resumes of the 7 bubble teams competing for final 5 spots. Same as before relies on Massey Opponent Rank (from last week, so I'm sure it shifted slightly after yesterday).

Here is link to my post on Redbird fanboard if you have trouble reading this screen print.

http://www.redbirdfan.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=9265




Tough call with a lot of "buddle teams" deserving.

[The Boogie Down]

Not sure how both Stats and NoBowls have NC A&T and Albany both in when Fordham finished higher than the two according to Sagarin. Higher Recent, higher Golden Mean, and higher Overall rating too. In the case of Albany, better record as well. Far better SOS than NC A&T as well.

Albany and NC A&T each received attention for each beating crappy MAC teams (you can check Buffalo's rating in the same screenshot below) but only Fordham beat 2 teams with higher Sagarin ratings.

Finally, despite not being known as a power conference, far from it, I think most would agree that the 2nd place Patriot League team is almost always better than the 2nd place MEAC team. Almost always better than the 6th place CAA team as well. Remember, Albany finished 6th in their league. Not only with a worse conference record than Maine, but they even lost the head-to-head to Maine. Yet, both Stats and NoBowls have them ahead of Maine. If it's because of their higher Sagarin rating than Maine, that's fine. But then what's the reasoning for having them ahead of Fordham too?

Updated (11/19/16) Sagarin grab from this morning showing Fordham currently ahead of both Albany and NC A&T:

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23935&stc=1


For some reason the attachment is hard to see. Here's where Sagarin rates them:

Fordham...48.26
Albany......48.21
NC A&T.....47.79

Here's the link:http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

[tribe_pride]

Not sure how both Stats and NoBowls have NC A&T and Albany both in when Fordham finished higher than the two according to Sagarin. Higher Recent, higher Golden Mean, and higher Overall rating too. In the case of Albany, better record as well. Far better SOS than NC A&T as well.

Albany and NC A&T each received attention for each beating crappy MAC teams (you can check Buffalo's rating in the same screenshot below) but only Fordham beat 2 teams with higher Sagarin ratings.

Finally, despite not being known as a power conference, far from it, I think most would agree that the 2nd place Patriot League team is almost always better than the 2nd place MEAC team. Almost always better than the 6th place CAA team as well. Remember, Albany finished 6th in their league. Not only with a worse conference record than Maine, but they even lost the head-to-head to Maine. Yet, both Stats and NoBowls have them ahead of Maine. If it's because of their higher Sagarin rating than Maine, that's fine. But then what's the reasoning for having them ahead of Fordham too?


Updated (11/19/16) Sagarin grab from this morning showing Fordham currently ahead of both Albany and NC A&T:



For Albany, the reason could be that Albany will have beaten 2 playoff teams and lost to Richmond in OT and Fordham only has 1 win over a team with a winning record.

[The Boogie Down]

For some reason the attachment is hard to see. Here's where Sagarin rates them:

Fordham...48.26
Albany......48.21
NC A&T.....47.79

Here's the link:http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

Higher Massey too!

Fordham....0.91
Albany.......0.90
NC A&T......0.75

Link: http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/ncaa-d1/ratings

[Dane96]

Body of work. It really comes down to body of work. Albany had two stinker games...against CAA comp, and one of those should have been a win (Maine). That said, we lost our best player, IBH...a potential All-American, early in the game due to what appears to be a serious knee injury. Not sure if that is taken into consideration...

Sucks because if he has what we all think he has, he's going to have a long road to recovery, which will effect next season.

[REALBird]

But several want ISUr in who loss to a middle of the pack OVC team?

Early season loss, but it was still a bad loss. That being said....yeah....ISUr is still better than UT-Martin or Samford. Poetic justice is both UT and ISUr get in and play each other.

[FargoBison]

Sadly I don't think Fordham is battling those teams....Seems more like Samford, ISUR or Fordham for the last team in.

[97Kat]

Not sure how both Stats and NoBowls have NC A&T and Albany both in when Fordham finished higher than the two according to Sagarin. Higher Recent, higher Golden Mean, and higher Overall rating too. In the case of Albany, better record as well. Far better SOS than NC A&T as well.

Albany and NC A&T each received attention for each beating crappy MAC teams (you can check Buffalo's rating in the same screenshot below) but only Fordham beat 2 teams with higher Sagarin ratings.

Finally, despite not being known as a power conference, far from it, I think most would agree that the 2nd place Patriot League team is almost always better than the 2nd place MEAC team. Almost always better than the 6th place CAA team as well. Remember, Albany finished 6th in their league. Not only with a worse conference record than Maine, but they even lost the head-to-head to Maine. Yet, both Stats and NoBowls have them ahead of Maine. If it's because of their higher Sagarin rating than Maine, that's fine. But then what's the reasoning for having them ahead of Fordham too?

Updated (11/19/16) Sagarin grab from this morning showing Fordham currently ahead of both Albany and NC A&T:

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23935&stc=1

It amazes me no one has an issue with NDSU at #1 yet they were unable to secure the MVFC auto bid. If you can't secure your conference auto bid you should not be rewarded with home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Period.

Bison Nation would be having a meltdown If the scenario was reversed.

Imagine NDSU with the MVFC auto bid seeded at #3-#6 and someone from another conference, who had to get an at large bid cause they lost at home to the conference co-champ, yet they still got a #1/#2 seed.

It would be anarchy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CHIP72]

I'm going to have to keep up with the selection show on here, 15 foot, 6" thick, branch fell on my roof and wrecked my dish.

Boy, does that suck, on multiple levels.

I hope you aren't an NFL fan and live far from Fox, CBS, and/or NBC station towers.

[kalm]

For Albany, the reason could be that Albany will have beaten 2 playoff teams and lost to Richmond in OT and Fordham only has 1 win over a team with a winning record.

And what's the best win coming out of the Patriot this season? Only two teams in the entire conference are above .500. Albany has a tougher SoS, better wins, a better resume.

Last 5 in should be Samford, Weber, ISUr, UNH, and Albany.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

It amazes me no one has an issue with NDSU at #1 yet they were unable to secure the MVFC auto bid. If you can't secure your conference auto bid you should not be rewarded with home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Period.

Bison Nation would be having a meltdown If the scenario was reversed.

Imagine NDSU with the MVFC auto bid seeded at #3-#6 and someone from another conference, who had to get an at large bid cause they lost at home to the conference co-champ, yet they still got a #1/#2 seed.

It would be anarchy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



If NDSU and SDSU were reversed, I would have no problem NDSU being placed lower. NDSU deserves to be #1...deal with it.

NDSU's last 3 losses have been the last play of the game.

[FargoBison]

It amazes me no one has an issue with NDSU at #1 yet they were unable to secure the MVFC auto bid. If you can't secure your conference auto bid you should not be rewarded with home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Period.

Bison Nation would be having a meltdown If the scenario was reversed.

Imagine NDSU with the MVFC auto bid seeded at #3-#6 and someone from another conference, who had to get an at large bid cause they lost at home to the conference co-champ, yet they still got a #1/#2 seed.

It would be anarchy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

NDSU won the auto last year and was seeded below on ISUR team with the same record. There was no meltdown.

[CHIP72]

In all seriousness, it is possible the selection committee will dock NDSU a little for technically not winning their conference. Whether that is fair/appropriate or not is another story.

[kalm]

It amazes me no one has an issue with NDSU at #1 yet they were unable to secure the MVFC auto bid. If you can't secure your conference auto bid you should not be rewarded with home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Period.

Bison Nation would be having a meltdown If the scenario was reversed.

Imagine NDSU with the MVFC auto bid seeded at #3-#6 and someone from another conference, who had to get an at large bid cause they lost at home to the conference co-champ, yet they still got a #1/#2 seed.

It would be anarchy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Conference affiliation and outcomes have far less to do with it than overall resumes, and that's as it should be. There is a disparity in the level of talent and quality teams across FCS land. NDSU played the toughest schedule in the toughest conference and came out of it with only one close loss to what will more than likely be another seeded team who happens to hale from the same conference.

Would you be making this argument if NDSU's close loss was to EWU instead? Probably not.

[Skyhawk71]

Tennessee-Martin would not be on the bubble if the football team was not considered the fund raising branch of the athletic department; this is not going to change in the future. Three FBS games is not working; but taking into account smallest enrollment, smallest budget and smallest stadium in the OVC- UTM had an outstanding season, and has a solid team, big drop off from #1 to #2 in the conference as well........Good Luck Gamecocks!!!

[Redbird 4th & short]

Early season loss, but it was still a bad loss. That being said....yeah....ISUr is still better than UT-Martin or Samford. Poetic justice is both UT and ISUr get in and play each other.
1 game against EIU does not make the whole resume ... so give us a -1 for EIU loss as a weak loss. Note, we completely outplayed them (450 to 250 yards, 25-15 1st downs) bt gave them the game on turnovers and special team miscues. Committee won't care about that which is fine .. but we were the better team.

Then look at the other 10 games .. they carry 10x the weight, especially how e did against the top 5 teams we played, winning 3 of 5 ... Weber St, Albany, UNH, and all the other bubble teams can't touch our resume of all 11 games. And most of them have worse losses than our EIU game .. right ?? None of them have the high quality wins we have, nor played nearly as tough SOS as we did.

Take any of the 7-4 bubble teams and have them play our schedule ... would they have finished 7-4 ? Or more likely 6-5 or 5-6 ... look at my chart ..not hard to see huge disparity in schedule. We have more quality wins and quality losses, against clearly tougher schedule.

[The Boogie Down]

And what's the best win coming out of the Patriot this season? Only two teams in the entire conference are above .500. Albany has a tougher SoS, better wins, a better resume.

Last 5 in should be Samford, Weber, ISUr, UNH, and Albany.

Then why does Fordham have a higher Sagarin rating than Albany and a higher Massey rating too?

[kalm]

i game does not make the whole resume ... so give us a -1 for EIU loss as a weak loss. Then look at the other 10 games .. they carry 10x the weight, especially how e did against the top 5 teams we played, winning 3 of 5 ... Weber St, Albany, UNH, and all the other bubble teams can't touch our resume of all 11 games.

Take any of the 7-4 bubble teams and have them play our schedule ... would they have finished 7-4 ? Or more likely 6-5 or 5-6 ... look at my chart ..not hard to see huge disparity in schedule. We have more quality wins and quality losses, against clearly tougher schedule.

This is the same reason that JSU and SHSU should be seeded behind NDSU, EWU, JMU, and the Citadel.

Not saying the previous two aren't great teams or that this is how it's going to play out.

[jacksfan29]

JSU would be undefeated in those conference, too.

CAA no. BSC? Only if you had UND's schedule and avoided EWU.

[kalm]

Then why does Fordham have a higher Sagarin rating than Albany and a higher Massey rating too?

That's why you can't always go off the computers. There are always going to be some anomalies.

[kdinva]

I think NC A&T is in......slot #24 will be between Albany and Samford.....

[milleniumkat]

Seeds 2-6 will be very interesting. Arguments could be made for a number of combinations there.

That's basically the bottom line.


"There is no MK, only Zuul!"

[milleniumkat]

With Selection Sunday on the horizon, IMO, the following can be established:



#1 through #6 is fluid but NDSU has the best chance at locking up the #1 overall seed.
Whoever gets the #5 and #6 seed will be furious and an #EastCoastBias #CommitteeIsRigged #SouthernSpeed and/or #SOSgate thread will erupt.
#7 and #8 will be some combination of SDSU/UND.
Chatty's defense looked solid against #RollTide and that does not bode well for whoever gets matched-up with them in the 1st Round
At least 1 team will be hitting the weight room this off season and they will come out next season fired up, more than evah!
SHSU hopefully proved all the doubters (including me) that they are legit contender.
Casey's Breakfast Pizza is still the best and will be had by said poster
YSU, Nova, and Lehigh are the best non-seeded teams.
ISUr + NC A&T will be the last 2 in and Samford + Weber State will be the last 2 out
Brian Hutchinson will be the most loved/most hated man in the FCS

And lastly...
NDSU should NOT have to play SDSU in the 2nd round since they did not **** the bed!


I just want to say i respect you for owning it.


"There is no MK, only Zuul!"

[The Boogie Down]

That's why you can't always go off the computers. There are always going to be some anomalies.

Even if both Sagarin and Massey are anomalies, the facts are that Fordham has a better record than Albany and didn't finish 6th in their conference. Granted the CAA is far better than the Patriot but we're comparing a true 2nd place team w/a 6th place team that probably would have finished under .500 if they didn't luck out in not getting JMU this year.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I think NC A&T is in......slot #24 will be between Albany and Samford.....

IMO, Albany is in with their FBS win.

[Cocky]

Considering you needed 3 pick sixes to beat eastern Kentucky, I'm going to go out on a limb and say, no, you wouldn't have.

Well you would probably be wrong.

[kalm]

Even if both Sagarin and Massey are anomalies, the facts are that Fordham has a better record than Albany and didn't finish 6th in their conference. Granted the CAA is far better than the Patriot but we're comparing a true 2nd place team w/a 6th place team that probably would have finished under .500 if they didn't luck out in not getting JMU this year.

Show me where the committee has indicated that conference affiliation and record are used as metrics ahead of SoS and quality wins.

[DirtyDukes]

Well you would probably be wrong.

Let's just hope there are a lot less Southeastern Missouris in the CAA

[Redbird 4th & short]

For Albany, the reason could be that Albany will have beaten 2 playoff teams and lost to Richmond in OT and Fordham only has 1 win over a team with a winning record.
UNH and ST Francis ??

St Francis is only in playoffs because of auto bid rule from a bad conference.Massey ranked them #59 for being 7-4 against 87th ranked SOS.

UNH is very questionable playoff bid .. Massey ranked them #38 for being 7-4 against the 58th ranked SOS.

That is how this stuff should be considered .. strength of schedule, quality wins, quality losses.

Name any quality wins or quality losses for Albany, UNH, Weber St .. or the other bubble teams like Cal Poly, Fordham, NC A&T. Only Cal Poly has anything worth bragging about to FCS committee in comparison to ISU.

[97Kat]

Conference affiliation and outcomes have far less to do with it than overall resumes, and that's as it should be. There is a disparity in the level of talent and quality teams across FCS land. NDSU played the toughest schedule in the toughest conference and came out of it with only one close loss to what will more than likely be another seeded team who happens to hale from the same conference.

Would you be making this argument if NDSU's close loss was to EWU instead? Probably not.

If NDSU lost to EWU that would be out of conference and not apply to my statement.

NDSU should be #3 in my book. Fill in EWU, JSU JMU SHSU Citadel around them.


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[Cocky]

CAA no. BSC? Only if you had UND's schedule and avoided EWU.
JSU would be undefeated in the CAA and BSC even if we played EWU.

[The Boogie Down]

Show me where the committee has indicated that conference affiliation and record are used as metrics ahead of SoS and quality wins.

Albany beat Buffalo. Many on this thread and others have counted that as their quality win. Including someone a couple of posts above us. Yet Fordham beat Penn who has a higher Sagarin rating and a higher Massey rating than Buffalo and no one mentions that.

[tribe_pride]

UNH and ST Francis ??

St Francis is only in playoffs because of auto bid rule from a bad conference.Massey ranked them #59 for being 7-4 against 87th ranked SOS.

UNH is very questionable playoff bid .. Massey ranked them #38 for being 7-4 against the 58th ranked SOS.

That is how this stuff should be considered .. strength of schedule, quality wins, quality losses.

Name any quality wins or quality losses for Albany, UNH, Weber St .. or the other bubble teams like Cal Poly, Fordham, NC A&T. Only Cal Poly has anything worth bragging about to FCS committee in comparison to ISU.

Don't think this argument has anything to do with ISU. I have ISU in ahead of both Fordham and Albany (which is the 2 I was comparing).

[Redbird 4th & short]

IMO, Albany is in with their FBS win.
Albany's FBS win is 2-9 Buffalo by 6. Buffalo is ranked #211 in all of college by Massey .. which would put them in lower third of FCS.

Albany's best win is UNH .. which is a pretty weak best win to make their case.

[tribe_pride]

BTW... I didn't think Buffalo win was a great win either. If you want to compare ISU, Albany and Fordham, I would put the order ISU, Albany then Fordham based on overall resume and quality of wins.

[FargoBison]

If NDSU lost to EWU that would be out of conference and not apply to my statement.

NDSU should be #3 in my book. Fill in EWU, JSU JMU SHSU Citadel around them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, in the land of SHSU non-conference doesn't matter. We know that but the committee doesn't think that way.

NDSU beat who in non-conference? Iowa, EWU and Charleston Southern....Those three wins might just trump the whole shared conference title.

[Redbird 4th & short]

you're right .. but of the 7 bubble teams identified by prediction polls release, 5 will get in .. ISU is out according to predictions .. which makes no sense. We have the best resume of all 7 bubble teams. So I'm making case against all 7 because we maybe out.

- - - Updated - - -


Don't think this argument has anything to do with ISU. I have ISU in ahead of both Fordham and Albany (which is the 2 I was comparing).
you're right .. but of the 7 bubble teams identified by prediction polls release, 5 will get in .. ISU is out according to predictions .. which makes no sense. We have the best resume of all 7 bubble teams. So I'm making case against all 7 because we maybe out.

[danefan]

It will be great if we make it because it's a great turnaround. Hard to see us making noise in the playoffs giv n the injuries yesterday.

and just so you know, no Albany fan will hang his hat on the Buffalo win other than to rub it in UB Fans faces as we are the SUNY Champs this year.

[kalm]

Albany beat Buffalo. Many on this thread and others have counted that as their quality win. Including someone a couple of posts above us. Yet Fordham beat Penn who has a higher Sagarin rating and a higher Massey rating than Buffalo and no one mentions that.

Another example of why I don't trust the computers for everything. The Ivy is 6 spots behind the MAC East in conference ranking. Penn's best win is against the 3rd best team in the Ivy? Even a bad Buffalo team is still a better win than the #2 Ivy.

[tribe_pride]

you're right .. but of the 7 bubble teams identified by prediction polls release, 5 will get in .. ISU is out according to predictions .. which makes no sense. We have the best resume of all 7 bubble teams. So I'm making case against all 7 because we maybe out.

- - - Updated - - -


you're right .. but of the 7 bubble teams identified by prediction polls release, 5 will get in .. ISU is out according to predictions .. which makes no sense. We have the best resume of all 7 bubble teams. So I'm making case against all 7 because we maybe out.

Got it. I was just confused because you quoted my post and I was not arguing against them at all

[Redbird 4th & short]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23934&stc=1

Here are the resumes of the 7 bubble teams competing for final 5 spots. Same as before relies on Massey Opponent Rank (from last week, so I'm sure it shifted slightly after yesterday).

Here is link to my post on Redbird fanboard if you have trouble reading this screen print.

http://www.redbirdfan.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=9265
forgive the bump .. but it is amazing that expert predictions of playoffs all have ISU out .. we have the best resume of the 7 bubble teams. 5 of 7 will get bids, I don't get what they are looking at. Does SOS mean anything ??

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Albany's FBS win is 2-9 Buffalo by 6. Buffalo is ranked #211 in all of college by Massey .. which would put them in lower third of FCS.

Albany's best win is UNH .. which is a pretty weak best win to make their case.


7-4 Albany or a 6-5 Ill State......IMO, the Valley is only getting 3 teams in.

[kalm]

If NDSU lost to EWU that would be out of conference and not apply to my statement.

NDSU should be #3 in my book. Fill in EWU, JSU JMU SHSU Citadel around them.


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I believe your initial statement was that if you don't win your conference auto bid you're not deserving of the top seed?

My point is that conference affiliation and standings are low on the list as metrics. The quality of your opponents in both wins and losses is far more significant and SDSU was not a bad loss.

[Cocky]

In FBS conference championships are top selection priority, not sure in FCS.

[longtimemocfan]

JSU would be undefeated in those conference, too.

You barely got by in a bad OVC conference.

[Cocky]

You barely got by in a bad OVC conference.
The team from a bad conference you lost to twice last year?

[longtimemocfan]

Barely Lol...Did I say JSU was bad ? No !!! The conference they play in is bad. Read the post.

[Redbird 4th & short]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23936&stc=1
7-4 Albany or a 6-5 Ill State......IMO, the Valley is only getting 3 teams in.

How do you view this, based on Massey Opponent Ranking .. obviously, I like ISUr over Albany

[The Boogie Down]

Must be alotta anomalies out there. Not only does Fordham have a higher Sagarin rating than Albany and NC A&T, not only does Fordham have a higher Massey rating than Albany and NC A&T but Fordham also has a higher College Football Composite than Albany and NC A&T.

Link: http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23936&stc=1

How do you view this, based on Massey Opponent Ranking .. obviously, I like ISUr over Albany



Being a Valley fan, I hope Ill State is in the playoffs but will the committee take a 6-5 team this year? Definitely a tougher schedule for Ill State.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Being a Valley fan, I hope Ill State is in the playoffs but will the committee take a 6-5 team this year? Definitely a tougher schedule for Ill State.
With 5 wins against teams ranked higher than Albany's best win, and our much tougher SOS, I sure hope our 6-5 is viewed as better resume than Albany's 7-4.

We played 5 teams better than the top 3 teams Albany played and lost to. We went 3-2 against those 5 teams. Not hard to imagine Albany losing most of those, just like the 3 they did lose against weaker teams.

Same for Weber St, UNH, and all of the other bubble teams. Only Cal Poly has anything to brag about o the 7 bubble teams I gathered data for based on predictive polls release today.

[FargoBison]

In FBS conference championships are top selection priority, not sure in FCS.

So if Ohio State wins out they won't be #2 anymore if PSU wins the title?

[kalm]

Must be alotta anomalies out there. Not only does Fordham have a higher Sagarin rating than Albany and NC A&T, not only does Fordham have a higher Massey rating than Albany and NC A&T but Fordham also has a higher College Football Composite than Albany and NC A&T.

Link: http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm

Yep. There sure can be. Computers always do have a few.

[FargoBison]

SHSU at #5...wow.

NDSU, EWU, JMU and JSU all top 4 per NCAA

[Redbird 4th & short]

Must be alotta anomalies out there. Not only does Fordham have a higher Sagarin rating than Albany and NC A&T, not only does Fordham have a higher Massey rating than Albany and NC A&T but Fordham also has a higher College Football Composite than Albany and NC A&T.

Link: http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm

Over the years, I've come to conclusion Massey is better at FCS than Sagarin. It seems like Sagarin has skewed results at certain extremes when they mix FCS and FBS, and how Sagarin values quality losses maybe too much. Anyway, I've used this data a lot .. Massey seems better at FCS than Sagarin.

[Cocky]

So if Ohio State wins out they won't be #2 anymore if PSU wins the title?


Its not the only criteria but it is suppose to carry more weigh. This comes from the ESPN talking heads not me.

[tribe_pride]

Must be alotta anomalies out there. Not only does Fordham have a higher Sagarin rating than Albany and NC A&T, not only does Fordham have a higher Massey rating than Albany and NC A&T but Fordham also has a higher College Football Composite than Albany and NC A&T.

Link: http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm

Besides quoting computer rankings, it would be better to make your argument about what happened on the field. Can you let us know why you think Fordham has a better resume than Albany and NC A&T.

[No_Skill]

SHSU at #5...wow.

NDSU, EWU, JMU and JSU all top 4 per NCAA

Technically at best 5.

[jmu007]

DUKES!!!!!!!

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

SHSU at #5...wow.

NDSU, EWU, JMU and JSU all top 4 per NCAA


SHSU doesn't deserve to be top 4 this year.

[FargoBison]

SHSU doesn't deserve to be top 4 this year.

Maybe....I think they are the 3rd best team.

[97Kat]

So if Ohio State wins out they won't be #2 anymore if PSU wins the title?

If FBS had a true playoff, yes, Ohio State would not have home field advantage throughout the playoffs


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[RootinFerDukes]

JSU would be undefeated in the CAA and BSC even if we played EWU.

Well thank goodness we have a playoff to help answer that question.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Maybe....I think they are the 3rd best team.


Maybe the Bison will see them in the semis....if they make it past JMU at their house.

[Terry2889]

Being a Valley fan, I hope Ill State is in the playoffs but will the committee take a 6-5 team this year? Definitely a tougher schedule for Ill State.

Totally agree. Either way hearts will be broken. Whether its Albany, UNH, or ISU. Also remember that these Massey ratings exist on a hypothetical island. We really won't know how strong these teams really are until they play head to head.

[Cocky]

Well thank goodness we have a playoff to help answer that question.

I agree

[ngineer]

I hope your bracketology is right. Not looking forward to trip to either UNH or EWU. Hopefully a home game with Albany or whoever, and a trip thereafter, less far than Washington.

[X-Factor]

SHSU at #5...wow.

NDSU, EWU, JMU and JSU all top 4 per NCAA

melt

[FargoBison]

Probably should have stuck with JSU at #3 but that those teams were just so close..crazy though that the committee gave no love to SHSU for destroying UCA.

[Redbird007]

SHSU not getting a top 4 seed is wrong IMO. Though SOS was weak they finally played a highly rated team and beat the crap out of them.

[Cocky]

SHSU not getting a top 4 seed is wrong IMO.

I thought EWU would fall out of the top 4.

[BisonTru]

Albany at Lehigh vs 1. NDSU
Villanova at UNH vs 8. UND
Illinois St at Chattanooga vs 5. JSU
St Francis at YSU vs 4. JMU


CSU at Wofford vs 6. The Citadel
USD at Cal Poly vs 3. SHSU
Weber State at UCA vs 7. SDSU
NC A&T at Richmond vs 2. EWU




Autobids: EWU, Charleston Southern, JMU, SDSU, St. Francis, Jacksonville State, Lehigh, San Diego, The Citadel, SHSU


At Large: NDSU,Chattanooga, Richmond, UND, UCA, YSU, Cal Poly, Villanova, Wofford, Albany, UNH, Illinois State, Weber State, NC A&T


Bubble: Samford, Fordham, UT Martin, SLU


Stats Bracket....


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cxrut3qXUAQiFm-.jpg:large


NoBowls...


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxrwxEEUsAAyUPJ.jpg:large

Consensus NC A&T gets in. I don't agree. They haven't done enough to deserve to be in, IMO. Samford or Tenn-Martin deserve the final spot.

[ValleyTalk]

GO YOUNGSTOWN!

[BisonTru]

I thought EWU would fall out of the top 4.

Why? Because they had a scare on the road? They've played one of the tougher schedules in the nation and outside of Fridays game and their OOC games they haven't let anyone stay close all season.

[The Boogie Down]

Besides quoting computer rankings, it would be better to make your argument about what happened on the field. Can you let us know why you think Fordham has a better resume than Albany and NC A&T.

As stated earlier, with respect to the fact that the CAA is far better than the PL, Fordham finished 2nd in their conference while Albany finished 6th in theirs. And it would have been worse had Albany not lucked out in not having to play JMU this season. Overall, granted with a weaker schedule, Fordham had a better record, more wins against teams rated above both schools (2 vs. 1) and a better result against their one common opponent, Holy Cross.

As for NC A&T, and again, as stated earlier, both teams finished 2nd in their respective conferences but the PL is rated comfortably higher than the MEAC. Overall Fordham had the stronger schedule and more wins against teams rated above them (again it's 2 vs. 1). NC A&T had the better win (Kent State) but also the worse loss (NC Central). Fordham's "bad loss" came on the road, in overtime and by a point. NC A&T was crushed at home (42-21) by an even weaker opponent in what for them, was already a playoff game.

[TheKingpin28]

I just want to say i respect you for owning it.


"There is no MK, only Zuul!"

Yeah I have no problem admitting when I am wrong. But now to see them at #5 probably? Wow even I am shocked.

[CHIP72]

One quick comment that should be fairly obvious - if either Lehigh or Villanova does get seeded (most likely at #8), it is pretty likely the other team, which IMO has a strong chance of getting a first round home playoff game, will be bracketed to play a seeded Lehigh or Villanova team in the second round.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Here we go!!!!!

[milleniumkat]

Yeah I have no problem admitting when I am wrong. But now to see them at #5 probably? Wow even I am shocked.

Yeah. It is what it is. But i will say i've lost some confidence in the validity of the FCS tho moving forward


"There is no MK, only Zuul!"

[BisonBacker]

Yeah. It is what it is. But i will say i've lost some confidence in the validity of the FCS tho moving forward


"There is no MK, only Zuul!"

They said it only 3 teams in your conference have a winning record and you didn't even play one of them.

[FargoBison]

Just missed one team...Albany last team out...Samford in. Kind of surprised by that, had ISUR in though.

[TheKingpin28]

Yeah. It is what it is. But i will say i've lost some confidence in the validity of the FCS tho moving forward


"There is no MK, only Zuul!"

I will say this, JMU has more seats, which means more dollars. That is probably why you got the #5 vs #4

[citdog]

Yeah. It is what it is. But i will say i've lost some confidence in the validity of the FCS tho moving forward


"There is no MK, only Zuul!"

Most have gained some... You are a very good team but that not playing anyone, and when you did it was a team that lost at home to Samford , thing y'all had going on was key.