Bracketology 6.0

[FargoBison]

Tough bracket to figure out, the bubble is a mess but fortunately some teams play each other which will make things clearer next week. For example I am projecting Maine over NH and CP over UNC.


San Diego at Cal Poly vs 1. EWU
Weber State at SDSU vs 8. UND
St Francis at YSU vs 5. JMU
WIU at UCA vs 4. SHSU


Charleston Southern at Wofford vs 6. The Citadel
Illinois State at Chattanooga vs 3. JSU
Samford at Villanova vs 7. Richmond
Maine at Lehigh vs 2. NDSU



Autobids: EWU, Charleston Southern, JMU, SDSU, St. Francis, Jacksonville State, Lehigh, San Diego, The Citadel, SHSU


At Large: NDSU,Chattanooga, Richmond, UND, UCA, YSU, Cal Poly, Villanova, Samford, Wofford, Maine, WIU, Illinois State, Weber State


Bubble: Albany, Montana, UNC, UNH, UNI, NCCU/NCAT, Fordham, UT Martin

[ST_Lawson]

Do you think they'd take 5 mvfc teams this year? Just feels like they'd be more likely to go with 4. NDSU, SDSU, YSU, and then either UNI or WIU depending on what happens next week.

[Twentysix]

You have Albany listed in the at large group and wiu in the bracket.

- - - Updated - - -

Nm you fiXed it

[DirtyDukes]

JMU @ 5? You do realize the committee had them at 4 before beating #9 Nova away, right?

[FargoBison]

Do you think they'd take 5 mvfc teams this year? Just feels like they'd be more likely to go with 4. NDSU, SDSU, YSU, and then either UNI or WIU depending on what happens next week.

ISUR also belongs in there considering they beat SDSU, Northwestern and WIU. Weird loss to EIU and five losses but put them next to say Montana and well Montana has done basically nothing except lose to every good team they've played.

[FargoBison]

JMU @ 5? You do realize the committee had them at 4 before beating #9 Nova away, right?

The whole SHSU/UCA situation kind of puts that in doubt in my opinion.

If I was doing this I would put JSU below JMU and The Citadel but for whatever the committee seems to have this bizarre crush on them.

[DirtyDukes]

The whole SHSU/UCA situation kind of puts that in doubt in my opinion.

If I was doing this I would put JSU below JMU and The Citadel but for whatever the committee seems to have this bizarre crush on them.

I don't understand. How would SHSU jump JMU in the committee's ranking by beating #13 UCA at home after JMU just beat #7 and #9 on the road?

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Lehigh still has an outside shot at a seed imo if there's some more chaos next week. If they get a first round home game I don't see them slotted against a top seed. I could see them being opposite Richmond. I'm pretty sure Maine and Richmond did not play this year. I'm confident Lehigh is destined to host the 4th (Maine, UNH or Albany) CAA team....

I'm interested to see how much the committee (not AGS) weighs Lehigh's wins over Penn and Princeton since the IL is the Bermuda Triangle of FCS football. That will determine their fate more than the bad loss to Monmouth to start the year.....

[FargoBison]

I don't understand. How would SHSU jump JMU in the committee's ranking by beating #13 UCA at home after JMU just beat #7 and #9 on the road?

The committee will have UCA at #7 or #8 this week. SHSU's big issue is having beaten nobody, I'm guessing when they finally do they'll get some credit for it.

Obviously though this could go either way...SHSU is really hard to evaluate due to their schedule.

[leatherneck177]

Ok, so I think committee takes one of the 6-5 teams, most likely 6-5 UNI IF they beat SDSU. 7-4 Western gets in this year, pool of potential at large candidates is THIN. I think two of the three make it....UNI, WIU or ISUr depending on what plays out.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Tough bracket to figure out, the bubble is a mess but fortunately some teams play each other which will make things clearer next week. For example I am projecting Maine over NH and CP over UNC.


San Diego at Cal Poly vs 1. EWU
Weber State at SDSU vs 8. UND
St Francis at YSU vs 5. JMU
WIU at UCA vs 4. SHSU


Charleston Southern at Wofford vs 6. The Citadel
Illinois State at Chattanooga vs 3. JSU
Samford at Villanova vs 7. Richmond
Maine at Lehigh vs 2. NDSU



Autobids: EWU, Charleston Southern, JMU, SDSU, St. Francis, Jacksonville State, Lehigh, San Diego, The Citadel, SHSU


At Large: NDSU,Chattanooga, Richmond, UND, UCA, YSU, Cal Poly, Villanova, Samford, Wofford, Maine, WIU, Illinois State, Weber State


Bubble: Albany, Montana, UNC, UNH, UNI, NCCU/NCAT, Fordham, UT Martin



I am unsure with WIU (or possibly even YSU, although they are pretty solid) from the MVFC. Dangerous game here, but here goes:

WIU:
The good - beat NIU (FBS) and NAU (which had won 4 in a row until losing to UND today).
The bad - lost to ISUr and UNI and only beat ISUb, MiSU, and USD by a combined 5 points.

YSU:
The good - only losses to WVU (FBS), SDSU, and NDSU.
The bad - somewhat unimpressive against ISUb and SIU (I'm grasping here a bit). Need to see what happens against MiSU next week.

I am advocating for UNI and ISUr a bit, simply because of some early FBS wins and their performances as of late.

I don't think the MVFC is a 5 playoff team conference this year, but if so, I would advocate for WIU to be replaced by UNI.

[BigSouthFan]

My million dollar question is..

What does the committee do with the 3 SOCON teams at 8-3 (Wofford, Chatt, Samford)? Do they let them all in?

[leatherneck177]

Yes bubble is thin, no question. All are deserving.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

My million dollar question is..

What does the committee do with the 3 SOCON teams at 8-3 (Wofford, Chatt, Samford)? Do they let them all in?


Good question.

Could be a **** show trying to get the bracket filled for the committee.

[BEAR]

I wonder if UCA can beat SHSU....xcoffeex

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Yes bubble is thin, no question. All are deserving.

I actually think the bubble is pretty strong this year, more so than last year. UNI, ISUr and Nicholls State imo could all be very good 6-5 teams.

Fordham at 8-3 still has a shot too. They'll be in the discussion....

[Preferred Walk-On]

My million dollar question is..

What does the committee do with the 3 SOCON teams at 8-3 (Wofford, Chatt, Samford)? Do they let them all in?

Congratulations! You have stumped the idiot.

[FargoBison]

My million dollar question is..

What does the committee do with the 3 SOCON teams at 8-3 (Wofford, Chatt, Samford)? Do they let them all in?

Yeah, at 8-3 they are all in.

[leatherneck177]

I actually think the bubble is pretty strong this year, more so than last year. UNI, ISUr and Nicholls State imo could all be very good 6-5 teams.

Fordham at 8-3 still has a shot too. They'll be in the discussion....

ISUr, UNI yes....Nichols has five uninspiring wins and the sixth wouldn't be much better.

Fordham maybe.....but all weak wins with one lower level win I think.

[Schism55]

Fordham is not in imo, unless LOTS of bubbles burst next week.

[ElCid]

My million dollar question is..

What does the committee do with the 3 SOCON teams at 8-3 (Wofford, Chatt, Samford)? Do they let them all in?

Yes, they are all in. Round robins losses to each other, all losing to The Citadel, and 1 FBS loss (with Samford doing well, Wofford respectable, and UTC TBD).

Should be a no brainer.

[kalm]

Lehigh still has an outside shot at a seed imo if there's some more chaos next week. If they get a first round home game I don't see them slotted against a top seed. I could see them being opposite Richmond. I'm pretty sure Maine and Richmond did not play this year. I'm confident Lehigh is destined to host the 4th (Maine, UNH or Albany) CAA team....

I'm interested to see how much the committee (not AGS) weighs Lehigh's wins over Penn and Princeton since the IL is the Bermuda Triangle of FCS football. That will determine their fate more than the bad loss to Monmouth to start the year.....

NDSU
EWU
JSU
JMU
The Citadel
SHSU
UCA

Could all lose and would still be seeded above Lehigh

So would UND who has a bye. After that you'd be comparing resumes with the three SoCon's and SDSU who each have a better win(s), and more difficult SOS.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

NDSU
EWU
JSU
JMU
The Citadel
SHSU
UCA

Could all lose and would still be seeded above Lehigh

So would UND who has a bye. After that you'd be comparing resumes with the three SoCon's and SDSU who each have a better win(s), and more difficult SOS.

If UCA gets run by SHSU I could see them being on the fence. Lehigh getting a seed is not probable but it is possible. I do think they'll be considered...

[BEAR]

If UCA gets run by SHSU I could see them being on the fence. Lehigh getting a seed is not probable but it is possible. I do think they'll be considered...

UCA would have to do what no team has done this year.....stop them from scoring big points every game...even if UCA scores 45, SHSU is more than capable of scoring 50. Tall order. A loss by 7 and UCA has done well AT SHSU's house.

[WTFCollegefootballfan]

Tough bracket to figure out, the bubble is a mess but fortunately some teams play each other which will make things clearer next week. For example I am projecting Maine over NH and CP over UNC.


San Diego at Cal Poly vs 1. EWU
Weber State at SDSU vs 8. UND
St Francis at YSU vs 5. JMU
WIU at UCA vs 4. SHSU


Charleston Southern at Wofford vs 6. The Citadel
Illinois State at Chattanooga vs 3. JSU
Samford at Villanova vs 7. Richmond
Maine at Lehigh vs 2. NDSU



Autobids: EWU, Charleston Southern, JMU, SDSU, St. Francis, Jacksonville State, Lehigh, San Diego, The Citadel, SHSU


At Large: NDSU,Chattanooga, Richmond, UND, UCA, YSU, Cal Poly, Villanova, Samford, Wofford, Maine, WIU, Illinois State, Weber State


Bubble: Albany, Montana, UNC, UNH, UNI, NCCU/NCAT, Fordham, UT Martin



Why is EWU ahead of NDSU? NDSU beat EWU.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

UCA would have to do what no team has done this year.....stop them from scoring big points every game...even if UCA scores 45, SHSU is more than capable of scoring 50. Tall order. A loss by 7 and UCA has done well AT SHSU's house.

Going to SHSU after a tough game with NSU is not fun. UCA is the underdog so a competitive loss won't hurt them but a 21+ point defeat would imo....

[FargoBison]

Why is EWU ahead of NDSU? NDSU beat EWU.

It's close....Iowa might have just moved it back toward NDSU's favor.

That said the morons on the committee still have yet to put either team at #1.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

It's close....Iowa might have just moved it back toward NDSU's favor.

That said the morons on the committee still have yet to put either team at #1.

NDSU flat-out deserves to be the #1 seed imo. When it's all said and done I'm confident they will be....

[Twentysix]

It's close....Iowa might have just moved it back toward NDSU's favor.

That said the morons on the committee still have yet to put either team at #1.

This is assuming that the committee can even connect the dots than NDSU beat Iowa and Iowa beat Michigan.

I have no doubt that they know each of these factoids individually, but I doubt they can make the linkage, as evidenced by their first two top 10s.

[FargoBison]

NDSU flat-out deserves to be the #1 seed imo. When it's all said and done I'm confident they will be....

Obviously I agree but the committee is leaving me filled with doubt.

I have no idea why JSU is #1....It is completely nonsensical.

[JSUSoutherner]

Obviously I agree but the committee is leaving me filled with doubt.

I have no idea why JSU is #1....It is completely nonsensical.
Shhhhhh. There's nothing wrong with the ranking. xnodx

[milleniumkat]

Going to SHSU after a tough game with NSU is not fun. UCA is the underdog so a competitive loss won't hurt them but a 21+ point defeat would imo....

How would a competitive loss to an overrated team with a weak sos NOT hurt. UCA should roll in this one.


"You Can't run with #81!"

[milleniumkat]

I actually think the bubble is pretty strong this year, more so than last year. UNI, ISUr and Nicholls State imo could all be very good 6-5 teams.

Fordham at 8-3 still has a shot too. They'll be in the discussion....

Be very careful trying to say Nicholls is a decent team. This board is not ready for that. I tried it and almost got banned for it.

Since Nicholls showed that they ARE a good team, just an inconsistent one, by giving #8 UCA a scare at home increase SHSU's SOS at all? I mean, Kats went into Thibadeaux and mopped the floor with Nicholls in a very sloppy performance but still win by 17,

Or is that not how SOS works? I'm confused...please advise.


"You Can't run with #81!"

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Does the injury to the JMU quarterback impact their seeding? The NCAA hoops committee has a history of considering injuries. Kenyon Martin at Cincinnati comes to mind.

[Twentysix]

Does the injury to the JMU quarterback impact their seeding? The NCAA hoops committee has a history of considering injuries. Kenyon Martin at Cincinnati comes to mind.

I have never heard of an injury being the reason for a seeding placement. Doesn't mean they won't, but I wouldn't count on them considering it.

[Katfan]

Why is EWU ahead of NDSU? NDSU beat EWU.
Then why is NDSU ahead of sdsu?

[Twentysix]

Then why is NDSU ahead of sdsu?

Because SDSU has 3 losses and a weaker SOS?

NDSU and EWU have very similar resumes and NDSU won the head to head. It's a decent argument.

[superman7515]

Be very careful trying to say Nicholls is a decent team. This board is not ready for that. I tried it and almost got banned for it.

No, you did not almost get banned for it.

http://media3.giphy.com/media/wPQ78GdymJ0RO/giphy.gif

[superman7515]

Ok, so I think committee takes one of the 6-5 teams, most likely 6-5 UNI IF they beat SDSU. 7-4 Western gets in this year, pool of potential at large candidates is THIN. I think two of the three make it....UNI, WIU or ISUr depending on what plays out.

There were a lot of people from some of these schools complaining about the watering down of the playoffs when it expanded, it will be interesting to watch how they react going forward when their team is the one that makes the playoffs and wouldn't have five seasons ago. Not talking about you 177, just replying to your comment because the MVFC (along with the CAA) posters were the most vociferous in their opposition to 6-5 teams getting in and expansion.

[Twentysix]

Rank
Team



Overall Record
Conference Record

Sagarin Ranking
Massey Ranking
Strength of Schedule
vs. AGS Top 25
FBS Record
Division 1 Wins


#1
Eastern Washington Eagles



9-1
7-0

2
2
3
3-1
1-0
9


#2
North Dakota State Bison



9-1
6-1

1
1
1
5-1
1-0
9


#10....SDSU....................................... ........7-3....................6-1............. ...........6.........................6............ ............7.......................3-0................0-1..................7..........

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Then why is NDSU ahead of sdsu?


9-1 versus 7-3 right now.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Rank
Team



Overall Record
Conference Record

Sagarin Ranking
Massey Ranking
Strength of Schedule
vs. AGS Top 25
FBS Record
Division 1 Wins


#1
Eastern Washington Eagles



9-1
7-0

2
2
3
3-1
1-0
9


#2
North Dakota State Bison



9-1
6-1

1
1
1
5-1
1-0
9


#10....SDSU....................................... ........7-3....................6-1............. ...........6.........................6............ ............7.......................3-0................0-1..................7..........




In a nut shell, the committee is giving more weight to a better loss for EWU and that is better than NDSU's head/head win.

Crazy in my mind.

[Twentysix]

In a nut shell, the committee is giving more weight to a better loss for EWU and that is better than NDSU's head/head win.

Crazy in my mind.


That might be it. WSU (#11) is also rated 20 spots higher than Iowa (#31) in Sagarin. Maybe they use computer rankings.

NDSU has the best FCS win in the entire subdivision, but EWU has the best FBS win.

Head to head should give some bonus weight imo though.

[RootinFerDukes]

If I were making a bracket, I just wouldn't be able to lay off the seeding provided by the committee.

Aside from that, I agree with your actual teams in the field. A very good bracket.

[Lehigh'98]

NDSU at 1 or 2 really is insignificant (they are 1 btw). Once again they will raise the trophy without having to travel in the playoffs (6 straight seasons, God damn amazing). The MVFC had their chance and once again failed. Hats off to the Bison, simply incredible!

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

NDSU at 1 or 2 really is insignificant (they are 1 btw). Once again they will raise the trophy without having to travel in the playoffs (6 straight seasons, God damn amazing). The MVFC had their chance and once again failed. Hats off to the Bison, simply incredible!


You would think they will but with how the committee has done the rankings so far, I don't know if they will be a #1 or #2

NDSU's last 3 losses have all been the last play of the game.....xeekx

In the last 6 years of this run, the only team that has shut them down was UNI in '14 in Cedar Falls.

80-6 the last six years......and counting.....xthumbsupx

xeekx.....80-6

[milleniumkat]

No, you did not almost get banned for it.

http://media3.giphy.com/media/wPQ78GdymJ0RO/giphy.gif

It was sarcasm, try to keep up. I'll put the means in quotations for you for a while


"You Can't run with #81!"

[Sammy94]

No

[RootinFerDukes]

Does the injury to the JMU quarterback impact their seeding? The NCAA hoops committee has a history of considering injuries. Kenyon Martin at Cincinnati comes to mind.

It shouldn't, but it might. I say you can't punish a team if they still won.

[FargoBison]

Losing Vad Lee didn't seem to hurt JMU's seeding last year.

[Southern Bison]

My million dollar question is..

What does the committee do with the 3 SOCON teams at 8-3 (Wofford, Chatt, Samford)? Do they let them all in?

I think the SoCon gets three into the playoffs...Chatty is sitting at home in December because they'll finish the season on 2 losses. We've seen that happen to YSU and others where they falter in November.

[RabidRabbit]

A loss to ALABAMA has already been accounted for Chatty. YSU getting whooped 3 straight in conference games is different.

[kalm]

If UCA gets run by SHSU I could see them being on the fence. Lehigh getting a seed is not probable but it is possible. I do think they'll be considered...

SoS: UCA 37 Lehigh 68
Best wins: UCA: Ark State, SELA, Nicholls,
Lehigh: Fodham, Princeton, Penn
Sagarin: UCA 9, 20
Massey UCA 5, 25

Even UCA's losses are better.

Kudo's to Lehigh for scheduling Monmouth and Nova OOC, but that's not enough to overcome an 9-2 record from the PL when it comes to a seed.

[Professor Chaos]

The UNI vs Illinois St bubble discussion will get very interesting if UNI beats SDSU next weekend. They don't play each other this year but both teams would have an FBS win plus wins over WIU and SDSU. ISUr's FBS win is better but they also have bad losses that UNI doesn't have (unless you count Montana as a bad loss) plus UNI would have a better conference record. Who would slot in higher in that scenario?

[FargoBison]

Chatty is likely safe...two straight losses are tough but one is to the best team in college football. I think they'll get a pass for it, especially since this committee loves quality losses.

[milleniumkat]

SoS: UCA 37 Lehigh 68
Best wins: UCA: Ark State, SELA, Nicholls,
Lehigh: Fodham, Princeton, Penn
Sagarin: UCA 9, 20
Massey UCA 5, 25

Even UCA's losses are better.

Kudo's to Lehigh for scheduling Monmouth and Nova OOC, but that's not enough to overcome an 9-2 record from the PL when it comes to a seed.

So it went from #ButtNicholls to a "Best win" for UCA?? hahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahahahhahahahahhahhahhh haha


"You Can't run with #81!"

[WileECoyote06]

Top 20-ish North Carolina A&T is going to receive an at-large bid, after losing to NCCU next week.

*throws golden apple*

[kalm]

The UNI vs Illinois St bubble discussion will get very interesting if UNI beats SDSU next weekend. They don't play each other this year but both teams would have an FBS win plus wins over WIU and SDSU. ISUr's FBS win is better but they also have bad losses that UNI doesn't have (unless you count Montana as a bad loss) plus UNI would have a better conference record. Who would slot in higher in that scenario?

What if South Dakota pulls the upset? They'd be 6-5 with wins over UNI, ISUr, NDSU, and a 7-4 bubble team Weber State.

[kalm]

So it went from #ButtNicholls to a "Best win" for UCA?? hahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahahahhahahahahhahhahhh haha"You Can't run with #81!"

Ummm yeah....

1) I didn't get in the buttnicholls argument, Junior.

2) Notice I listed it as one of UCA's best wins compared to Lehigh's best wins? I intentionally didn't list it as a high quality, quality, or even good win like I do if that's the case with other teams.

3). Which means you're hurting your own argument here. If buttnicholls is one of UCA's best wins, it's odd that you're laughing.

[Professor Chaos]

What if South Dakota pulls the upset? They'd be 6-5 with wins over UNI, ISUr, NDSU, and a 7-4 bubble team Weber State.
They'd be 5-6. Had they beat SDSU yesterday and then beat NDSU next week to get to 6-5 they'd definitely be in the discussion.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

What if South Dakota pulls the upset? They'd be 6-5 with wins over UNI, ISUr, NDSU, and a 7-4 bubble team Weber State.


5-6

Chaos beat me to it.

[kalm]

They'd be 5-6. Had they beat SDSU yesterday and then beat NDSU next week to get to 6-5 they'd definitely be in the discussion.

Ooops...my bad.

[Bison56]

So it went from #ButtNicholls to a "Best win" for UCA?? hahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahahahhahahahahhahhahhh haha


"You Can't run with #81!"

Does it hurt being so stupid?

[Thumper 76]

They'd be 5-6. Had they beat SDSU yesterday and then beat NDSU next week to get to 6-5 they'd definitely be in the discussion.

You're welcome world.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[birdsflyhigh]

24 FCS playoff teams picked....Illinois State Redbirds are now rated #12 Sagarin and #13 Massey. GO BIRDS!

[mmiller_34]

I think if Richmond loses next weekend and SDSU wins, SDSU has a slight shot to get that 8 seed. Would be huge for the Dakota teams if we all got seeds.

[dunbar]

Would Lehigh really outbid a CAA school with an average attendance of 6527?

[JMUisat14]

Would Lehigh really outbid a CAA school with an average attendance of 6527?

It wouldn't be that surprising. Possibly Nova, Maine or UNH. Unlikely over JMU/Richmond if they were not seeded.

CAA Average Attendance 2015:

JMU - 19,498
Delaware - 15,826
W&M - 8,967
Richmond - 8,099
Elon - 7,841
UNH - 7,303
Stony Brook - 7,268
Villanova - 6,767
Towson - 6,594
Albany - 5,887
Maine - 5,071
Rhode Island - 4,753

[dunbar]

Let's compare Lehigh to the rest of the CAA:



SCHOOL
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
G6
TOTAL
AVERAGE


James Madison
23626
20636
25236
20354
23841

113693
22739


Delaware
17835
18108
12972
17488


66403
16601


New Hampshire
13242
21943
8316
5029
7012

55542
11108


William and Mary
10240
10021
11713
9124


41098
10275


Richmond
8700
8700
8700
8700
8700
8700
52200
8700


Maine
8786
7266
10443
6790


33285
8321


Stony Brook
6153
4450
7833
12221
5330

35987
7197


Elon
7036
6588
10424
4416
8178
6236
42878
7146


Lehigh
4828
5493
9255
6009
7049

32634
6527


Albany
8040
6309
9052
3916
4412

31729
6346


Villanova
6419
9025
4105
5109
6109

30767
6153


Towson
8069
7059
5023
4009
4354

28514
5703


Rhode Island
4511
3676
5102
4007


17296
4324



Villanova has the money to outbid Lehigh, and Maine, New Hampshire, and Richmond have the average numbers to make a strong guarantee bid as well.

[melloware13]

I think if NC Central wins over NC A&T this week, NC A&T gets a legitimate discussion for at large (NC Central would be MEAC Champ -> Celebration Bowl). They'd be 9-2 with 9 DI wins and a FBS win (losses to Tulsa and NC Central). Bethune Cookman last year was 9-2, but they had a DII win instead of a FBS win.

[Utgrizfan]

Not to sound like a homer (because we definitely don't deserve it after the last few weeks and how we have played) I think at 7-4 Montana would get into the playoffs. Granted I think a lot of it would be based on the venue we have to offer for a first round playoff game but it is possible, especially if other teams on the bubble lose this week.

[TheKingpin28]

Not to sound like a homer (because we definitely don't deserve it after the last few weeks and how we have played) I think at 7-4 Montana would get into the playoffs. Granted I think a lot of it would be based on the venue we have to offer for a first round playoff game but it is possible, especially if other teams on the bubble lose this week.

That would entice the committee to give you a nod over someone who does not have a great gate revenue, since between Montana, NDSU, SHSU, JSU, and JMU, not many places can get sellouts with a fanbase that will travel if their team must go on the road.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

SoS: UCA 37 Lehigh 68
Best wins: UCA: Ark State, SELA, Nicholls,
Lehigh: Fodham, Princeton, Penn
Sagarin: UCA 9, 20
Massey UCA 5, 25

Even UCA's losses are better.

Kudo's to Lehigh for scheduling Monmouth and Nova OOC, but that's not enough to overcome an 9-2 record from the PL when it comes to a seed.


The rankings would change with a loss to SHSU. I think the biggest question regarding Lehigh is how much will the committee weighs wins (assuming they both win next week) over Penn 7-3 (Ivy co-Champ) and Princeton 7-3 (dominant in wins, 2nd place in IL). The Ivy League is the great mystery in all of FCS.

It's not likely Lehigh gets a seed but I bet they're 1 of 4 or 5 teams that are in play for the #8 seed. NDSU, EWU, JSU, The Citadel, SHSU, and JMU seem set. UCA and UND would seem like the final two but I think Lehigh, Villanova, Richmond, YSU and maybe the 2nd place SoCon team could sneak in. There's not a ton of difference between the Southland and PL imo. Lehigh's likely path is a SHSU 20+ point win and then hope to get lucky.

I just want a home playoff game....

[4th and What?]

It wouldn't be that surprising. Possibly Nova, Maine or UNH. Unlikely over JMU/Richmond if they were not seeded.

CAA Average Attendance 2015:

JMU - 19,498
Delaware - 15,826
W&M - 8,967
Richmond - 8,099
Elon - 7,841
UNH - 7,303
Stony Brook - 7,268
Villanova - 6,767
Towson - 6,594
Albany - 5,887
Maine - 5,071
Rhode Island - 4,753

You don't think JMU can botch a bid? :)

[ElCid]

I posted these on the Committee release thread before, but I updated them as of yesterday's game.

On Massey, the teams are listed based upon estimated final SOS. On the Sagarin one, they are listed in actual, as of today, SOS. As I mentioned before these are simply W/L and ranking of opponents played. Home/Away, margin of victory, rivalry, etc. are obviously not accounted for.

For reference here are the committees rankings.

1. Jax St
2. EWU
3. NDSU
4. JMU
5. SHSU
6. The Citadel
7. Chattanooga
8. Richmond
9. UCA
10. UND


http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23850&stc=1

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23852&stc=1

[katstrapper]

The committee will have UCA at #7 or #8 this week. SHSU's big issue is having beaten nobody, I'm guessing when they finally do they'll get some credit for it.

Obviously though this could go either way...SHSU is really hard to evaluate due to their schedule.

My question to you is how many SHSU games have you watched this year? The majority on this board sit and look at paper, including the committee I am sure. If you haven't watched any games then it explains why you don't know how to seed .

Like I have said several times in different threads, according to most on this board, SHSU has a weak schedule every year, yet they have been to the semi-finals 4 of the last 5 years. (Oh wait, let me guess, SHSU has always had the easier path in the playoffs? Anybody on this board that is a true football fan knows how tough it is for your team or ANY team to go undefeated in a college football season, no matter how weak the schedule, because there is always a bullseye on the back.

Its a good thing that the AGS poll and the supposed Bracketology Gurus on this board are setting the playoff brackets because if they did there would only be 2 conferences represented.... xcoffeex

This 2016 offense can and will put at least 500yds of offense in playoff games.

[Doc QB]

SoS: UCA 37 Lehigh 68
Best wins: UCA: Ark State, SELA, Nicholls,
Lehigh: Fodham, Princeton, Penn
Sagarin: UCA 9, 20
Massey UCA 5, 25

Even UCA's losses are better.

Kudo's to Lehigh for scheduling Monmouth and Nova OOC, but that's not enough to overcome an 9-2 record from the PL when it comes to a seed.

Agree, we haven't done enough. We don't slip vs Monmouth, maybe we're ranked higher, would help some. Beating UPenn, Ivy champ, doesn't sway voters even though the whole board ranked Harvard all year undeservedly, and UPenn just disposed of them Friday. Bearing Colgate, and Fordham soundly would have been more impressive if they were having better seasons. They just aren't as strong as other years. Had they been better and we somehow beat'Nova, maybe we would have been considered, but none of that fell into place for us, and there are just too many teams with better resumes and history in the tourney.

That said, we deserve to be in, will be a tough opening round opponent. Would love it to be a home game.

[milleniumkat]

Ummm yeah....

1) I didn't get in the buttnicholls argument, Junior.

2) Notice I listed it as one of UCA's best wins compared to Lehigh's best wins? I intentionally didn't list it as a high quality, quality, or even good win like I do if that's the case with other teams.

3). Which means you're hurting your own argument here. If buttnicholls is one of UCA's best wins, it's odd that you're laughing.

Making zero arguments. Placing zero blame. I pointed out the irony. Just because i quoted your post doesn't mean i was attacking you specifically.


"You Can't run with #81!"

[WrenFGun]

My million dollar question is..

What does the committee do with the 3 SOCON teams at 8-3 (Wofford, Chatt, Samford)? Do they let them all in?

Yes. All three are in.

[Bucs2016]

Charleston Southern is in.....and adds another conference title to its history.....I'LL TAKE IT!!

[FargoBison]

My question to you is how many SHSU games have you watched this year? The majority on this board sit and look at paper, including the committee I am sure. If you haven't watched any games then it explains why you don't know how to seed .

Like I have said several times in different threads, according to most on this board, SHSU has a weak schedule every year, yet they have been to the semi-finals 4 of the last 5 years. (Oh wait, let me guess, SHSU has always had the easier path in the playoffs? Anybody on this board that is a true football fan knows how tough it is for your team or ANY team to go undefeated in a college football season, no matter how weak the schedule, because there is always a bullseye on the back.

Its a good thing that the AGS poll and the supposed Bracketology Gurus on this board are setting the playoff brackets because if they did there would only be 2 conferences represented.... xcoffeex

This 2016 offense can and will put at least 500yds of offense in playoff games.

I've watched two SHSU games. Nichols and McNeese, plus parts of others. They are hard to seed because they have not played a playoff team, all I have is past results and big wins over average to garbage teams to judge them with. I do agree that SHSU has had nice playoff runs but look at how some of those runs have ended. How am I supposed to know that they'll fair better against a team like NDSU or EWU or JSU?

Meanwhile you have teams like NDSU and EWU who have played vastly superior schedules and have two absolutely massive FBS wins.

I think SHSU's offense is one of the best in the FCS but your defense is very inconsistent, they were awful in the McNeese game I watched.

Where do you think SHSU should be seeded? Also don't act like this bracket is how I would seed teams, it is a reflection on how I think the committee will seed them.

[Doc QB]

Let's compare Lehigh to the rest of the CAA:



SCHOOL
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
G6
TOTAL
AVERAGE


James Madison
23626
20636
25236
20354
23841

113693
22739


Delaware
17835
18108
12972
17488


66403
16601


New Hampshire
13242
21943
8316
5029
7012

55542
11108


William and Mary
10240
10021
11713
9124


41098
10275


Richmond
8700
8700
8700
8700
8700
8700
52200
8700


Maine
8786
7266
10443
6790


33285
8321


Stony Brook
6153
4450
7833
12221
5330

35987
7197


Elon
7036
6588
10424
4416
8178
6236
42878
7146


Lehigh
4828
5493
9255
6009
7049

32634
6527


Albany
8040
6309
9052
3916
4412

31729
6346


Villanova
6419
9025
4105
5109
6109

30767
6153


Towson
8069
7059
5023
4009
4354

28514
5703


Rhode Island
4511
3676
5102
4007


17296
4324



Villanova has the money to outbid Lehigh, and Maine, New Hampshire, and Richmond have the average numbers to make a strong guarantee bid as well.

while we have had declining home attendance as compared to five yrs ago, our under-reporting doesn't help us either. I was at every home game, and last three had at least 8000, as home side was near full each time, and the visiting side should have gotten us to 8000 for sure. Bucknell traveled shockingly well, and we only reported 7000... No way. No idea why we shortchanged ourselves, but we do.

Nova doesn't put butts in the seats well, their more honest fans would be first to bemoan this given their years of success. Can't take Richmond's number you provided seriously, it's the same number each week, looks to be their capacity, and I watched their game against Hens on TV... They were NOT full.

We're close to all the potential match ups u listed, it will come down to bids and the CAA just being at the table more often than us.

[ST_Lawson]

There were a lot of people from some of these schools complaining about the watering down of the playoffs when it expanded, it will be interesting to watch how they react going forward when their team is the one that makes the playoffs and wouldn't have five seasons ago. Not talking about you 177, just replying to your comment because the MVFC (along with the CAA) posters were the most vociferous in their opposition to 6-5 teams getting in and expansion.


If we make it in at 7-4, I'll be happy, but if we're staying home at either 7-4 or 6-5, I won't be salty. We had our chances, we lost by 8 to NDSU, by 5 to ISUr, and by 7 to UNI. Sure they're all pretty good teams and all three seem to be playing their best football right now, but if we want in without any question or any argument, we gotta win one or two of those games. We took a near-certain playoff at-large spot and pissed it down our leg.


If the bubble were stronger or the playoff field smaller (say, 16, like it used to be), then likely none of the three of us (UNI, ISUr, WIU) would be in it, and I'd be ok with that too. Unless UNI goes out and whallops SDSU next weekend, I don't think any of us are top 16 teams this season. There's some good wins in there, but also some questionable losses. I could see us all being considered top 24 teams, but not top 16 teams. We won't really know for sure how the committee feels about the three of us because they only seed 8, so maybe UNI is #10, or maybe they're #20, but we won't really know that because either way they'll play someone roughly in our region (maybe UND unless they get a seed?).


Personally, I like the larger playoff field, but it's not because I think that the #20 team has any reasonable shot at the championship (they theoretically could...Any Given Saturday, and all that, but it's highly unlikely). I like the larger playoff field because it gives us additional fun and exciting FCS games that are enjoyable to watch and are matchups that we don't often see. Mostly cross-conference matchups with mostly good teams...mostly just good FCS games. They likely have very little impact on the championship...no unseeded team has made the championship game since before the expansion from 20-24, although SHSU does seem to really enjoy crashing the "final four".

[Gangtackle11]

I don't believe Nova deserves a home game if they get in as our home attendance is abysmal for the success the team has most seasons. That said it won't surprise me that Nova will ante up the $$$ needed to win a bid.

Well healed football alums won't let Coach Talley travel in lieu of his last chance at a home game.

[milleniumkat]

I've watched two SHSU games. Nichols and McNeese, plus parts of others. They are hard to seed because they have not played a playoff team, all I have is past results and big wins over average to garbage teams to judge them with. I do agree that SHSU has had nice playoff runs but look at how some of those runs have ended. How am I supposed to know that they'll fair better against a team like NDSU or EWU or JSU?

Meanwhile you have teams like NDSU and EWU who have played vastly superior schedules and have two absolutely massive FBS wins.

I think SHSU's offense is one of the best in the FCS but your defense is very inconsistent, they were awful in the McNeese game I watched.

Where do you think SHSU should be seeded? Also don't act like this bracket is how I would seed teams, it is a reflection on how I think the committee will seed them.

Based on your level of judgment, Who had fared well vs NDSU ever? JSU made it last year, but ended the same as or efforts have in the past. And EWU hasn't made a semi since we beat them in 2012.

So i'm not sure your logic of determining legitimacy of shsu based on record vs Bison is realistic or even makes much sense. To that end, the entire nation is a **** burger. I tend to give Bison credit for being "That good" not that the rest of us are "That Bad"

Some of your herd seems to somehow see it both ways and i'm not certain that makes any sense at all.

"You Can't run with #81!"

[FargoBison]

Based on your level of judgment, Who had fared well vs NDSU ever? JSU made it last year, but ended the same as or efforts have in the past. And EWU hasn't made a semi since we beat them in 2012.

So i'm not sure your logic of determining legitimacy of shsu based on record vs Bison is realistic or even makes much sense. To that end, the entire nation is a **** burger. I tend to give Bison credit for being "That good" not that the rest of us are "That Bad"


"You Can't run with #81!"

ISUR, Coastal, Wofford...we've had close playoff games. Even had a great title game with SHSU.

I guess though relevant to this year EWU came to Fargo and took it to OT. This clearly seems to be EWU's best team since 2010, when they last won the title. Their defense also seems to be getting better.

I think a solid case could be made for SHSU at #3 if they take care of business next week...That said the committee seems to really overrate JSU.

[WrenFGun]

My position as of Sunday, 11/13:

IN:

Big Sky: EWU, North Dakota
Big South: Charleston Southern
CAA: JMU, Richmond, Villanova
MVFC: NDSU, SDSU, YSU
NEC: St. Francis
OVC: Jacksonville State
PL: Lehigh
PFL: San Diego
SoCON: Wofford, Chattanooga, Samford, Citadel
Southland: SHSU, UCA

To me, 19 of 24 spots are locked up. Here's the bubble:

Weber State (Win and IN, IMO -- 7 DI wins, 6-2 in big Sky, huge win against CP)
Cal Poly (Win and IN, IMO -- 7 DI wins, 5-3 Big Sky, good losses, good wins)
Northern Colorado (Win and MAYBE -- 6 DI wins, 5-3 in Conference. beat Montana and CP to get in)
Montana (Win and MAYBE -- 7 DI wins, best win over UNI)
Liberty (Win and WAIT -- 7 DI wins, win over CCU to end the year)
Maine (Win and IN -- 7 DI wins, finish 6-2 in CAA, would have finished year 7-1)
UNH (Win and MAYBE, -- 7 DI wins, finish 6-2 in CAA, best wins over Maine, SBU and W&M, lousy loss to Dartmouth)
Albany (Win and MAYBE -- 7 DI wins, just 4-4 in CAA, H2H win over UNH)
UNI (Win and MAYBE -- 6 DI wins, tough schedule, H2H LOSS to Montana, but better overall schedule)
ISU-R (Season done, Maybe)
WIU (7 DI wins, lost to UNI, 2-3 down stretch, FBS win, possibly behind UNI in conference)
UTM (7 DI wins, would include upset win over JSU at end of season)
Fordham (7 DI wins, beat Penn)

This is a pretty soft bubble, IMO. My read would be that the Big Sky has a strong chance to take two additional bids (to get them to 4), and that the CAA will get at least one additional bid (Maine, Albany and UNH). I think the MVFC will certainly get at least one (if WIU and UNI were both to lose, than ISU-R is a lock, IMO).

These four teams do not need help to get in. They win these games, that's 23.

1. WIU (tough conference, relatively easy final game on the road against a bad team, would get them to 7 DI wins in the best FCS conference and with an FBS win)
2. Weber State (put themselves ahead of CP with the H2H win, would finish 6-2 in the Big Sky with a win against a bad team on the road)
3. Cal Poly (loss to Weber aside, they beat San Diego and SDSU -- definitely out with a loss though)
4. Maine (7-1 in their final 8 with a win over UNH to seal it, would finish 6-2 in CAA)

My last team in would probably be UNI or ISU-R (coinflip) but UNI has the problem of losing to Montana.

So here's where the fun begins, who's next?

1. I think the UNH/Maine game is PROBABLY for a playoff spot. if UNH beats Maine, I think they'll get the nod even though they LOST the H2H because they finished 2 games ahead of Albany in the standings if Albany beats SBU.

2. I think Northern Colorado/Cal Poly is PROBABLY for a playoff spot. Cal Poly is certainly out with a loss, and while NoCO would only finish with 6 DI wins, 2 would be over CP and Montana and they'd be 5-3 in the conference.

Ultimately, there are probably TWO open spots for bubble teams to move into if Weber State and WIU lose.

1. If Weber State loses to Idaho State, Montana would be in with a win over Montana State, IMO. Remember, they beat UNI.
2. If WIU loses to Southern Illinois, there's a huge can of worms to open up. I don't think you can take UNI over Montana, and I think Albany comes into play as well.
3. I'd guess ISU-R is out if UTM beats Jax State.

In short, here's what I think has to happen for each bubble to get in:

Weber State (WIN)
Cal Poly (WIN)
Northern Colorado (WIN)
Montana (WIN, hope for Weber State loss)
Liberty (WIN, hope that Montana, UNI, WIU, Weber State, Albany, UTM lose; Coinflip with Fordham)
Maine (WIN)
UNH (WIN, hope for Albany loss)
Albany (WIN, hope that UNH wins, hope that Montana, Weber State, UNI, WIU lose)
UNI (WIN, hope for Montana, Weber State, Albany, WIU to lose)
ISU-R (Root for JSU)
WIU (WIN)
UTM (WIN)
Fordham (WIN, hope that Montana, UNI, WIU, Weber State, Albany, UTM lose; Coinflip with Liberty)

[Redbird007]

My position as of Sunday, 11/13:

IN:

Big Sky: EWU, North Dakota
Big South: Charleston Southern
CAA: JMU, Richmond, Villanova
MVFC: NDSU, SDSU, YSU
NEC: St. Francis
OVC: Jacksonville State
PL: Lehigh
PFL: San Diego
SoCON: Wofford, Chattanooga, Samford, Citadel
Southland: SHSU, UCA

To me, 19 of 24 spots are locked up. Here's the bubble:

Weber State (Win and IN, IMO -- 7 DI wins, 6-2 in big Sky, huge win against CP)
Cal Poly (Win and IN, IMO -- 7 DI wins, 5-3 Big Sky, good losses, good wins)
Northern Colorado (Win and MAYBE -- 6 DI wins, 5-3 in Conference. beat Montana and CP to get in)
Montana (Win and MAYBE -- 7 DI wins, best win over UNI)
Liberty (Win and WAIT -- 7 DI wins, win over CCU to end the year)
Maine (Win and IN -- 7 DI wins, finish 6-2 in CAA, would have finished year 7-1)
UNH (Win and MAYBE, -- 7 DI wins, finish 6-2 in CAA, best wins over Maine, SBU and W&M, lousy loss to Dartmouth)
Albany (Win and MAYBE -- 7 DI wins, just 4-4 in CAA, H2H win over UNH)
UNI (Win and MAYBE -- 6 DI wins, tough schedule, H2H LOSS to Montana, but better overall schedule)
ISU-R (Season done, Maybe)
WIU (7 DI wins, lost to UNI, 2-3 down stretch, FBS win, possibly behind UNI in conference)
UTM (7 DI wins, would include upset win over JSU at end of season)
Fordham (7 DI wins, beat Penn)

This is a pretty soft bubble, IMO. My read would be that the Big Sky has a strong chance to take two additional bids (to get them to 4), and that the CAA will get at least one additional bid (Maine, Albany and UNH). I think the MVFC will certainly get at least one (if WIU and UNI were both to lose, than ISU-R is a lock, IMO).

These four teams do not need help to get in. They win these games, that's 23.

1. WIU (tough conference, relatively easy final game on the road against a bad team, would get them to 7 DI wins in the best FCS conference and with an FBS win)
2. Weber State (put themselves ahead of CP with the H2H win, would finish 6-2 in the Big Sky with a win against a bad team on the road)
3. Cal Poly (loss to Weber aside, they beat San Diego and SDSU -- definitely out with a loss though)
4. Maine (7-1 in their final 8 with a win over UNH to seal it, would finish 6-2 in CAA)

My last team in would probably be UNI or ISU-R (coinflip) but UNI has the problem of losing to Montana.

So here's where the fun begins, who's next?

1. I think the UNH/Maine game is PROBABLY for a playoff spot. if UNH beats Maine, I think they'll get the nod even though they LOST the H2H because they finished 2 games ahead of Albany in the standings if Albany beats SBU.

2. I think Northern Colorado/Cal Poly is PROBABLY for a playoff spot. Cal Poly is certainly out with a loss, and while NoCO would only finish with 6 DI wins, 2 would be over CP and Montana and they'd be 5-3 in the conference.

Ultimately, there are probably TWO open spots for bubble teams to move into if Weber State and WIU lose.

1. If Weber State loses to Idaho State, Montana would be in with a win over Montana State, IMO. Remember, they beat UNI.
2. If WIU loses to Southern Illinois, there's a huge can of worms to open up. I don't think you can take UNI over Montana, and I think Albany comes into play as well.
3. I'd guess ISU-R is out if UTM beats Jax State.

In short, here's what I think has to happen for each bubble to get in:

Weber State (WIN)
Cal Poly (WIN)
Northern Colorado (WIN)
Montana (WIN, hope for Weber State loss)
Liberty (WIN, hope that Montana, UNI, WIU, Weber State, Albany, UTM lose; Coinflip with Fordham)
Maine (WIN)
UNH (WIN, hope for Albany loss)
Albany (WIN, hope that UNH wins, hope that Montana, Weber State, UNI, WIU lose)
UNI (WIN, hope for Montana, Weber State, Albany, WIU to lose)
ISU-R (Root for JSU)
WIU (WIN)
UTM (WIN)
Fordham (WIN, hope that Montana, UNI, WIU, Weber State, Albany, UTM lose; Coinflip with Liberty)


great analysis / understanding of FCS football environment

[kalm]

Based on your level of judgment, Who had fared well vs NDSU ever? JSU made it last year, but ended the same as or efforts have in the past. And EWU hasn't made a semi since we beat them in 2012.

So i'm not sure your logic of determining legitimacy of shsu based on record vs Bison is realistic or even makes much sense. To that end, the entire nation is a **** burger. I tend to give Bison credit for being "That good" not that the rest of us are "That Bad"

Some of your herd seems to somehow see it both ways and i'm not certain that makes any sense at all.

"You Can't run with #81!"

Huh. Could have sworn we lost to Towson in the semi's a year later.

[kalm]

If we make it in at 7-4, I'll be happy, but if we're staying home at either 7-4 or 6-5, I won't be salty. We had our chances, we lost by 8 to NDSU, by 5 to ISUr, and by 7 to UNI. Sure they're all pretty good teams and all three seem to be playing their best football right now, but if we want in without any question or any argument, we gotta win one or two of those games. We took a near-certain playoff at-large spot and pissed it down our leg.


If the bubble were stronger or the playoff field smaller (say, 16, like it used to be), then likely none of the three of us (UNI, ISUr, WIU) would be in it, and I'd be ok with that too. Unless UNI goes out and whallops SDSU next weekend, I don't think any of us are top 16 teams this season. There's some good wins in there, but also some questionable losses. I could see us all being considered top 24 teams, but not top 16 teams. We won't really know for sure how the committee feels about the three of us because they only seed 8, so maybe UNI is #10, or maybe they're #20, but we won't really know that because either way they'll play someone roughly in our region (maybe UND unless they get a seed?).


Personally, I like the larger playoff field, but it's not because I think that the #20 team has any reasonable shot at the championship (they theoretically could...Any Given Saturday, and all that, but it's highly unlikely). I like the larger playoff field because it gives us additional fun and exciting FCS games that are enjoyable to watch and are matchups that we don't often see. Mostly cross-conference matchups with mostly good teams...mostly just good FCS games. They likely have very little impact on the championship...no unseeded team has made the championship game since before the expansion from 20-24, although SHSU does seem to really enjoy crashing the "final four".

Good post here, especially the last bit. More teams in the field means more football, more OOC matchups which we all crave, and a chance for maybe watch your team's season extended when they might be out if the field were only 16.

I like football.

[katstrapper]

I've watched two SHSU games. Nichols and McNeese, plus parts of others. They are hard to seed because they have not played a playoff team, all I have is past results and big wins over average to garbage teams to judge them with. I do agree that SHSU has had nice playoff runs but look at how some of those runs have ended. How am I supposed to know that they'll fair better against a team like NDSU or EWU or JSU?

Wow, you have watched more than probably most. And I know how they ended, but to me it didn't have a thing to do with SOS. In 3 of the last 5 years, Kats playoff run was ended by the eventual National Champ NDSU (2 in NC, 1 in Semifinals), last year in the SEMI-FINALS and 2013 in the second round by SE Louisiana. What did that have to do with SOS. And aside from 2011, SHSU has traveled during the playoffs and pulled off quite a few big wins .

Meanwhile you have teams like NDSU and EWU who have played vastly superior schedules and have two absolutely massive FBS wins.

So EWU has played vastly superior schedules and massive FBS wins compared to SHSU... where did they/have they end up in the playoffs the last 5 years? (Lost to SHSU in 2012 who wasn't seeded)

I think SHSU's offense is one of the best in the FCS but your defense is very inconsistent, they were awful in the McNeese game I watched.

Defense has been inconsistent under new DC Brad Sherrod, but have been able to get the stops needed and yes the defense wasn't too good in the McNeese game, but the Kats did only have 2 cornerbacks available to play. And McNeese is better than their record indicates. They will be a handful next year.


Where do you think SHSU should be seeded? Also don't act like this bracket is how I would seed teams, it is a reflection on how I think the committee will seed them.

No lower than #3 seed and I think the committee was crazy dropping them that far in one week. But, I am sure there are naysayers on the committee about SHSU. The schedule is what it is.

[kalm]

My position as of Sunday, 11/13:

IN:

Big Sky: EWU, North Dakota
Big South: Charleston Southern
CAA: JMU, Richmond, Villanova
MVFC: NDSU, SDSU, YSU
NEC: St. Francis
OVC: Jacksonville State
PL: Lehigh
PFL: San Diego
SoCON: Wofford, Chattanooga, Samford, Citadel
Southland: SHSU, UCA

To me, 19 of 24 spots are locked up. Here's the bubble:

Weber State (Win and IN, IMO -- 7 DI wins, 6-2 in big Sky, huge win against CP)
Cal Poly (Win and IN, IMO -- 7 DI wins, 5-3 Big Sky, good losses, good wins)
Northern Colorado (Win and MAYBE -- 6 DI wins, 5-3 in Conference. beat Montana and CP to get in)
Montana (Win and MAYBE -- 7 DI wins, best win over UNI)
Liberty (Win and WAIT -- 7 DI wins, win over CCU to end the year)
Maine (Win and IN -- 7 DI wins, finish 6-2 in CAA, would have finished year 7-1)
UNH (Win and MAYBE, -- 7 DI wins, finish 6-2 in CAA, best wins over Maine, SBU and W&M, lousy loss to Dartmouth)
Albany (Win and MAYBE -- 7 DI wins, just 4-4 in CAA, H2H win over UNH)
UNI (Win and MAYBE -- 6 DI wins, tough schedule, H2H LOSS to Montana, but better overall schedule)
ISU-R (Season done, Maybe)
WIU (7 DI wins, lost to UNI, 2-3 down stretch, FBS win, possibly behind UNI in conference)
UTM (7 DI wins, would include upset win over JSU at end of season)
Fordham (7 DI wins, beat Penn)

This is a pretty soft bubble, IMO. My read would be that the Big Sky has a strong chance to take two additional bids (to get them to 4), and that the CAA will get at least one additional bid (Maine, Albany and UNH). I think the MVFC will certainly get at least one (if WIU and UNI were both to lose, than ISU-R is a lock, IMO).

These four teams do not need help to get in. They win these games, that's 23.

1. WIU (tough conference, relatively easy final game on the road against a bad team, would get them to 7 DI wins in the best FCS conference and with an FBS win)
2. Weber State (put themselves ahead of CP with the H2H win, would finish 6-2 in the Big Sky with a win against a bad team on the road)
3. Cal Poly (loss to Weber aside, they beat San Diego and SDSU -- definitely out with a loss though)
4. Maine (7-1 in their final 8 with a win over UNH to seal it, would finish 6-2 in CAA)

My last team in would probably be UNI or ISU-R (coinflip) but UNI has the problem of losing to Montana.

So here's where the fun begins, who's next?

1. I think the UNH/Maine game is PROBABLY for a playoff spot. if UNH beats Maine, I think they'll get the nod even though they LOST the H2H because they finished 2 games ahead of Albany in the standings if Albany beats SBU.

2. I think Northern Colorado/Cal Poly is PROBABLY for a playoff spot. Cal Poly is certainly out with a loss, and while NoCO would only finish with 6 DI wins, 2 would be over CP and Montana and they'd be 5-3 in the conference.

Ultimately, there are probably TWO open spots for bubble teams to move into if Weber State and WIU lose.

1. If Weber State loses to Idaho State, Montana would be in with a win over Montana State, IMO. Remember, they beat UNI.
2. If WIU loses to Southern Illinois, there's a huge can of worms to open up. I don't think you can take UNI over Montana, and I think Albany comes into play as well.
3. I'd guess ISU-R is out if UTM beats Jax State.

In short, here's what I think has to happen for each bubble to get in:

Weber State (WIN)
Cal Poly (WIN)
Northern Colorado (WIN)
Montana (WIN, hope for Weber State loss)
Liberty (WIN, hope that Montana, UNI, WIU, Weber State, Albany, UTM lose; Coinflip with Fordham)
Maine (WIN)
UNH (WIN, hope for Albany loss)
Albany (WIN, hope that UNH wins, hope that Montana, Weber State, UNI, WIU lose)
UNI (WIN, hope for Montana, Weber State, Albany, WIU to lose)
ISU-R (Root for JSU)
WIU (WIN)
UTM (WIN)
Fordham (WIN, hope that Montana, UNI, WIU, Weber State, Albany, UTM lose; Coinflip with Liberty)

Great work here, Wren!

I'd quibble with Weber being a win and in. They have just one quality win and they avoided playing Montana and EWU. Every other win on their schedule was against a sub .500 team with the exception of SUU who is 5-5. Compare their resume to an Albany who would have wins over UNH and FBS Buffalo. Then compare their resume and SoS to ISUr and UNI while looking back to UND's snub last year and I think there's a chance they might get past up by either one of those.

I'd also point out that since you're counting San Diego among Cal Poly's good wins, you should count St. Francis for Montana.

And if UTM beats JSU, I'm pretty sure they win the OVC auto bid but you still had them listed on the bubble with that win.

[Gangtackle11]

Here is my take:

Big Sky (4): EWU, UND, Weber State, Cal Poly
Big South (1): Charleston Southern
CAA (4): JMU, Richmond, Villanova, Maine
MVFC (5): NDSU, SDSU, Youngstown State, Western Illinois, Illinois State
NEC (1): St.Francis (PA)
OVC (1): Jacksonville State
Patriot (1): Lehigh
Pioneer (1): San Diego
Southern (4): The Citadel, Chattanooga, Samford, Wofford
Southland (2): SHSU, Central Arkansas

1. Jacksonville State vs. Samford/Illinois State
8. North Dakota vs. Central Arkansas/Western Illinois

5. Sam Houston State vs. Lehigh/Maine
4. James Madison vs. Wofford/Charleston Southern

3. NDSU vs. SDSU/Weber State
6. The Citadel vs. Chattanooga/Villanova

7. Richmond vs. Youngstown State/St.Francis, Pa.
2. Eastern Washington vs. Cal Poly/San Diego

[FargoBison]

So EWU has played vastly superior schedules and massive FBS wins compared to SHSU... where did they/have they end up in the playoffs the last 5 years? (Lost to SHSU in 2012 who wasn't seeded)



I am talking about EWU this year. This year they are playing fantastic football, beat a really good WSU team, beat UNI and had NDSU on the ropes. They've dominated their league as well. This is probably their best team since 2010, I don't really care about their other teams. A lot of those teams had some major defensive issues, this year it appears that they have a capable defense.


No lower than #3 seed and I think the committee was crazy dropping them that far in one week. But, I am sure there are naysayers on the committee about SHSU. The schedule is what it is.



I wouldn't have a single issue with SHSU at #3...JSU is struggling and their wins are looking worse. If SHSU beats UCA they'll have a better than JSU has. JMU and The Citadel are also close I guess.

[BigSouthFan]

Here is my take:

Big Sky (4): EWU, UND, Weber State, Cal Poly
Big South (1): Charleston Southern
CAA (4): JMU, Richmond, Villanova, Maine
MVFC (5): NDSU, SDSU, Youngstown State, Western Illinois, Illinois State
NEC (1): St.Francis (PA)
OVC (1): Jacksonville State
Patriot (1): Lehigh
Pioneer (1): San Diego
Southern (4): The Citadel, Chattanooga, Samford, Wofford
Southland (2): SHSU, Central Arkansas

1. Jacksonville State vs. Samford/Illinois State
8. North Dakota vs. Central Arkansas/Western Illinois

5. Sam Houston State vs. Lehigh/Maine
4. James Madison vs. Wofford/Charleston Southern

3. NDSU vs. SDSU/Weber State
6. The Citadel vs. Chattanooga/Villanova

7. Richmond vs. Youngstown State/St.Francis, Pa.
2. Eastern Washington vs. Cal Poly/San Diego

No shot that the committee doesn't salivate at the chance for the CSU/The Citadel rivalry game in the 2nd round, especially since they didn't play this year. Huge ticket sales, 20 minute bus ride to pay for. It's all win win.

It would also avoid a Citadel/Chatt 2nd round rematch easily.

[WrenFGun]

Great work here, Wren!

I'd quibble with Weber being a win and in. They have just one quality win and they avoided playing Montana and EWU. Every other win on their schedule was against a sub .500 team with the exception of SUU who is 5-5. Compare their resume to an Albany who would have wins over UNH and FBS Buffalo. Then compare their resume and SoS to ISUr and UNI while looking back to UND's snub last year and I think there's a chance they might get past up by either one of those.

I'd also point out that since you're counting San Diego among Cal Poly's good wins, you should count St. Francis for Montana.

And if UTM beats JSU, I'm pretty sure they win the OVC auto bid but you still had them listed on the bubble with that win.

I think Weber's conference record and recent win over CP has them in pretty good shape. I don't think it's an outstanding resume by any stretch, but like the UNH/Albany debate, can you take a team that is 2-3 games betterin conference and snub them over a lower team? Albany is a big time sleeper who also beat St. Francis, but I think they have a real problem of finishing only .500 in the CAA and having four FCS losses.

UTM is in with a win over JSU. I believe that's in there.

I think A LOT of teams are hoping for SDSU and Stony Brook to win this weekend. I think it would really clear things up a fair amount. If Northern Colorado beats CP and Weber State loses to Idaho State, who the hell do you take from the Big Sky? That's a disaster situation. Have to think N. Colorado suddenly looks pretty decent there.

As of last week, actually think Northern Arizona was going to steal a bid (and that Wofford had no chance). Whoops!

- - - Updated - - -


Here is my take:

Big Sky (4): EWU, UND, Weber State, Cal Poly
Big South (1): Charleston Southern
CAA (4): JMU, Richmond, Villanova, Maine
MVFC (5): NDSU, SDSU, Youngstown State, Western Illinois, Illinois State
NEC (1): St.Francis (PA)
OVC (1): Jacksonville State
Patriot (1): Lehigh
Pioneer (1): San Diego
Southern (4): The Citadel, Chattanooga, Samford, Wofford
Southland (2): SHSU, Central Arkansas

1. Jacksonville State vs. Samford/Illinois State
8. North Dakota vs. Central Arkansas/Western Illinois

5. Sam Houston State vs. Lehigh/Maine
4. James Madison vs. Wofford/Charleston Southern

3. NDSU vs. SDSU/Weber State
6. The Citadel vs. Chattanooga/Villanova

7. Richmond vs. Youngstown State/St.Francis, Pa.
2. Eastern Washington vs. Cal Poly/San Diego

If UNH beats Maine, who gets that spot? Is it UNH or Albany?

[DEX]

I think if NC Central wins over NC A&T this week, NC A&T gets a legitimate discussion for at large (NC Central would be MEAC Champ -> Celebration Bowl). They'd be 9-2 with 9 DI wins and a FBS win (losses to Tulsa and NC Central). Bethune Cookman last year was 9-2, but they had a DII win instead of a FBS win.

I hate to say it but the MEAC does not deserve an at-large bid this year. My Aggies are certainly worthy of consideration, however we must pay for the sins of our conference members. Outside of A&T no other MEAC team has won a game vs an fcs or fbs team. Besides if we lose to nccu for the conference championship then I have very little confidence in us winning a playoff game.

Our only postseason option is to finish at 10-1 and go to the Celebration Bowl. Anything less and our season should conclude on Saturday. Hopefully the MEAC will focus on scheduling and winning more fcs ooc games in the future.

[steelers#58]

A lot of interesting perspectives here. I will disagree that if UNI and Western Illinois both win, that the Leathernecks get the playoff nod just because they won 7 games. UNI will have the better conference record, finishing 4th at 5-3, vs WIU 4-4. UNI beat the Leathernecks rather easily, only because of Farley's fascination with the prevent defense and lack of going for the jugular allowed the game to be closer in the end. Just out of curiosity, how many times has a team that lost it's head-to-head against an opponent, finished lower than them in the conference standings, yet advanced to the playoffs because they won one more game in the regular season?

[RabidRabbit]

Here is my take:

Big Sky (4): EWU, UND, Weber State, Cal Poly
Big South (1): Charleston Southern
CAA (4): JMU, Richmond, Villanova, Maine
MVFC (5): NDSU, SDSU, Youngstown State, Western Illinois, Illinois State
NEC (1): St.Francis (PA)
OVC (1): Jacksonville State
Patriot (1): Lehigh
Pioneer (1): San Diego
Southern (4): The Citadel, Chattanooga, Samford, Wofford
Southland (2): SHSU, Central Arkansas

1. Jacksonville State vs. Samford/Illinois State
8. North Dakota vs. Central Arkansas/Western Illinois

5. Sam Houston State vs. Lehigh/Maine
4. James Madison vs. Wofford/Charleston Southern

3. NDSU vs. SDSU/Weber State
6. The Citadel vs. Chattanooga/Villanova

7. Richmond vs. Youngstown State/St.Francis, Pa.
2. Eastern Washington vs. Cal Poly/San Diego

I would send Sdsu/Weber winner to und , with UCA/WIU winner to Ndsu. Likewise, chuck so/Wofford winner to Cit, JMU gets YSU/st.francis winner with Richmond facing Villanova Chattanooga winner. Disagree with the seeds. I also believe to regionalize, that Sdsu will feed to und with winner to ndsu .



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[longtimemocfan]

I think the SoCon gets three into the playoffs...Chatty is sitting at home in December because they'll finish the season on 2 losses. We've seen that happen to YSU and others where they falter in November.

You think ?

[longtimemocfan]

A loss to ALABAMA has already been accounted for Chatty. YSU getting whooped 3 straight in conference games is different.

I hope your right. After yesterday didn't think we deserved anything. Just looked like Woffy wanted it more. Too many mental errors, but it happens.

[JSUSoutherner]

You think ?
I see El Cid, Samford, Wofford, and UTC all making it. 8-3 with a win over Samford should be enough for the Mocs to make it in with the bubble as weak as it is.

[kalm]

I am talking about EWU this year. This year they are playing fantastic football, beat a really good WSU team, beat UNI and had NDSU on the ropes. They've dominated their league as well. This is probably their best team since 2010, I don't really care about their other teams. A lot of those teams had some major defensive issues, this year it appears that they have a capable defense.



I wouldn't have a single issue with SHSU at #3...JSU is struggling and their wins are looking worse. If SHSU beats UCA they'll have a better than JSU has. JMU and The Citadel are also close I guess.

Yeah! Let's compare resumes from the past 5 years to determine seeding!

[Southern Bison]

You think ?
I do...the OOC schedule was weak as Obama's foeign policy!

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[Milktruck74]

IT seems like the consensus is the SoCon gets 4 in (I'm still not completely sold). If it was going to happen Woffy had to beat Chattanooga...and they did. SO since they seem to have played their way in, whose spot did they take?

[longtimemocfan]

IT seems like the consensus is the SoCon gets 4 in (I'm still not completely sold). If it was going to happen Woffy had to beat Chattanooga...and they did. SO since they seem to have played their way in, whose spot did they take?

According to The bison that stuck his horn in a light socket it's Chattanooga. Could be, but...

[ST_Lawson]

A lot of interesting perspectives here. I will disagree that if UNI and Western Illinois both win, that the Leathernecks get the playoff nod just because they won 7 games. UNI will have the better conference record, finishing 4th at 5-3, vs WIU 4-4. UNI beat the Leathernecks rather easily, only because of Farley's fascination with the prevent defense and lack of going for the jugular allowed the game to be closer in the end. Just out of curiosity, how many times has a team that lost it's head-to-head against an opponent, finished lower than them in the conference standings, yet advanced to the playoffs because they won one more game in the regular season?

I agree.
Both teams win and they'll take UNI and might take WIU.
Both teams lose and they take ISUR.
WIU wins and UNI loses, they take WIU and maybe ISUr.
UNI wins and WIU loses, they'll take UNI and maybe ISUR.

[Red & Black]

So EWU has played vastly superior schedules and massive FBS wins compared to SHSU... where did they/have they end up in the playoffs the last 5 years? (Lost to SHSU in 2012 who wasn't seeded)

2012-Semi's
2013-Semi's
2014-Quarters

I'd say that's a pretty decent run. Does losing in the semi's, or even the quarter-finals make you a bad playoff team? I don't think so.

You guys keep going back to 2012 or 2013 like it matters. It doesn't.

[leatherneck177]

I agree.
Both teams win and they'll take UNI and might take WIU.
Both teams lose and they take ISUR.
WIU wins and UNI loses, they take WIU and maybe ISUr.
UNI wins and WIU loses, they'll take UNI and maybe ISUR.

Nailed it, except I fully believe there is room for both UNI and WIU with wins. Not many teams out there with resumes to bump either one.

[ST_Lawson]

Nailed it, except I fully believe there is room for both UNI and WIU with wins. Not many teams out there with resumes to bump either one.

Probably, but if both teams win, I'll be sweating it on Selection Sunday. I could see them maybe not take us depending on other factors.

[dudeitsaid]

In a nut shell, the committee is giving more weight to a better loss for EWU and that is better than NDSU's head/head win.

Crazy in my mind.

I don't think it's crazy. I have stated multiple times that NDSU should still be #1, but I understand the logic behind those that don't agree. EWU lost in OT away. Since home-field is typically an advantage, it can be assumed that in Cheney, it would not have come down to OT. Also, EWU lost on the road to a team that had two weeks to prepare. NDSU lost on their home turf...to a 7-3 team.

Once again, not my vote. The Bison are top dogs in my book. But I can understand the reasoning to keeping a notch lower than EWU. Heck, I'd bet a good portion of the voters ranking EWU #1 are Bison fans.

All of that being said, what Iowa did last night should definitely be considered. And both Iowa and Wazzu are tremendous FBS scalps this year. I think EWU and NDSU should be very, very close based on this years performance.

[WrenFGun]

A lot of people are suddenly big fans of Southern Illinois, Stony Brook, Montana State, Idaho State, South Dakota State, Jacksonville State and Northern Colorado right now. The Maine/UNH winner is probably getting one so nothing can be done there, but everyone else can be spoiled.

[dudeitsaid]

Based on your level of judgment, Who had fared well vs NDSU ever? JSU made it last year, but ended the same as or efforts have in the past. And EWU hasn't made a semi since we beat them in 2012.

So i'm not sure your logic of determining legitimacy of shsu based on record vs Bison is realistic or even makes much sense. To that end, the entire nation is a **** burger. I tend to give Bison credit for being "That good" not that the rest of us are "That Bad"

Some of your herd seems to somehow see it both ways and i'm not certain that makes any sense at all.

"You Can't run with #81!"

Actually, since you almost lost to EWU in 2012, we made it to the semis against Towson in 2013. Shoulda won both those games in the semis! xbawlingx

[kalm]

I don't think it's crazy. I have stated multiple times that NDSU should still be #1, but I understand the logic behind those that don't agree. EWU lost in OT away. Since home-field is typically an advantage, it can be assumed that in Cheney, it would not have come down to OT. Also, EWU lost on the road to a team that had two weeks to prepare. NDSU lost on their home turf...to a 7-3 team.

Once again, not my vote. The Bison are top dogs in my book. But I can understand the reasoning to keeping a notch lower than EWU. Heck, I'd bet a good portion of the voters ranking EWU #1 are Bison fans.

All of that being said, what Iowa did last night should definitely be considered. And both Iowa and Wazzu are tremendous FBS scalps this year. I think EWU and NDSU should be very, very close based on this years performance.

Nailed it. I have NDSU ranked ahead of EWU as well but it's close.

To call the opposite crazy is fantastically tremendous and outrageously hysterical hyperbole!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TheKingpin28]

I don't think it's crazy. I have stated multiple times that NDSU should still be #1, but I understand the logic behind those that don't agree. EWU lost in OT away. Since home-field is typically an advantage, it can be assumed that in Cheney, it would not have come down to OT. Also, EWU lost on the road to a team that had two weeks to prepare. NDSU lost on their home turf...to a 7-3 team.

Once again, not my vote. The Bison are top dogs in my book. But I can understand the reasoning to keeping a notch lower than EWU. Heck, I'd bet a good portion of the voters ranking EWU #1 are Bison fans.

All of that being said, what Iowa did last night should definitely be considered. And both Iowa and Wazzu are tremendous FBS scalps this year. I think EWU and NDSU should be very, very close based on this years performance.

I have had EWU #1 since week 8. Now that may change for this coming poll, but since week 8, I have seen more from them to warrant a #1 than NDSU. I think after this week and next, NDSU, assuming they beat USD, will leap frog EWU for the #1 spot. It is a complete judgement call for NDSU/EWU and as long as they are 1/2 or 2/1 then it looks good.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Nailed it. I have NDSU ranked ahead of EWU as well but it's close.

To call the opposite crazy is fantastically tremendous and outrageously hysterical hyperbole!!!!!!!!!!!!


Oh no, I better go to my safe space....xrolleyesx

Yes, I think that a head/head win for NDSU over EWU trumps EWU's better perceived FBS win or perceived good or not so good loss.

[milleniumkat]

I am talking about EWU this year. This year they are playing fantastic football, beat a really good WSU team, beat UNI and had NDSU on the ropes. They've dominated their league as well. This is probably their best team since 2010, I don't really care about their other teams. A lot of those teams had some major defensive issues, this year it appears that they have a capable defense.



I wouldn't have a single issue with SHSU at #3...JSU is struggling and their wins are looking worse. If SHSU beats UCA they'll have a better than JSU has. JMU and The Citadel are also close I guess.
EWU beat a poorly playing Washington State team at the time they played. WSU had made vast improvements since. This is not the same team EWU beat early in the Year. Just ask college Gameday. They discussed it on saturday


"You Can't run with #81!"

[FargoBison]

EWU beat a poorly playing Washington State team at the time they played. WSU had made vast improvements since. This is not the same team EWU beat early in the Year. Just ask college Gameday. They discussed it on saturday


"You Can't run with #81!"

I guess EWU isn't allowed to improve just WSU can improve.

WSU is playing really well but EWU hasn't exactly fallen off, I think their defense has gotten better. I'm not sure if EWU wins again but I doubt WSU would roll them.

[BucBisonAtLarge]

Be very careful trying to say Nicholls is a decent team. This board is not ready for that. I tried it and almost got banned for it.


You don't know the way things work around here, huh? You're not that good.

[dudeitsaid]

EWU beat a poorly playing Washington State team at the time they played. WSU had made vast improvements since. This is not the same team EWU beat early in the Year. Just ask college Gameday. They discussed it on saturday


"You Can't run with #81!"

I have no problem with this. I think most of the FBS, FCS, and committee see just about any FCS over FBS victory as an upset, and a big feather in the cap come seeding time. I certainly wouldn't say EWU would beat them nine times out of ten, but we were absolutely the better team that night. Should've won by more of a spread than three, truthfully.

I'm glad to see WSU continuing to play well. Regardless of how people now view they way they played the game, it just shows that EWU is a solid team.

[dudeitsaid]

Oh no, I better go to my safe space....xrolleyesx

Yes, I think that a head/head win for NDSU over EWU trumps EWU's better perceived FBS win or perceived good or not so good loss.

Sounds like we agree in priciple. Just wouldn't go as far as calling it crazy to view it the other way...unless you are so steeped in your homerism you can't allow any dissenting viewpoints that challenge the pinnacle of perfection your team represents in your mind. If that's the case, not sure why you are here. Maybe you do need to go back to your safe space.

[milleniumkat]

I guess EWU isn't allowed to improve just WSU can improve.

WSU is playing really well but EWU hasn't exactly fallen off, I think their defense has gotten better. I'm not sure if WSU wins again but I doubt WSU would roll them.

BINGO!!


"You Can't run with #81!"

[milleniumkat]

I have no problem with this. I think most of the FBS, FCS, and committee see just about any FCS over FBS victory as an upset, and a big feather in the cap come seeding time. I certainly wouldn't say EWU would beat them nine times out of ten, but we were absolutely the better team that night. Should've won by more of a spread than three, truthfully.

I'm glad to see WSU continuing to play well. Regardless of how people now view they way they played the game, it just shows that EWU is a solid team.

100% agree. but if someone points to that game and states "We beat a very good WSU team" in reference to the one that is performing NOW, that is false and simplistic. That's all i'm saying.


"You Can't run with #81!"

[milleniumkat]

You guys need to relax and have some fun and realize that this is sports we are talking about. FCS, sub-level sports to be specific.

Besides, you guys will all feel a lot better when UCA comes to town and puts a Face Raping on my beloved Kats' perfect season. Just think of how good that's going to feel for the haters. It will be a grand day indeed for some.


"You Can't run with #81!"

[milleniumkat]

You don't know the way things work around here, huh? You're not that good.

riiiiiiight.


"You Can't run with #81!"

[FargoBison]

NoBowls.com Bracket

http://nobowls.com/images/week11.png

[TheKingpin28]

NoBowls.com Bracket

http://nobowls.com/images/week11.png

That bottom half would be a blood bath. Just based off of this "bracket" this is example A as to why they need to go to a 1-24 seeding.

[BEAR]

I thought UCA earned a home game round one if they have to play in the first round.. you know...the opportunity to pay to host first withthe win Saturday. xeyebrowx

[leatherneck177]

SDSU as the MVFC champ, yet a road game at bubble team Montana?

[WrenFGun]

The ONLY thing that matters in the first round is $$. If you win your conference and are in the first round, you better pay.

[Thumper 76]

SDSU as the MVFC champ, yet a road game at bubble team Montana?

Last year they were called the 1st team outside the seeds and still got sent to Montana. Welcome to the **** world of SDSU playoff draws. In our five playoff appearances we have gone to Montana twice, one home game, to Montana State, and to NAU. Montana State fed to Fargo, once Montana fed to Fargo, home game fed to Fargo, NAU fed to EWU. Good times.

Oh all our losses have been @Fagro or @Montana outside of once in Cheney.

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[RabidRabbit]

no bowls.com = no bulls**t There are so many things wrong and unbalanced, even with regionalization that would go different than listed.

[ElCid]

NoBowls.com Bracket

http://nobowls.com/images/week11.png

If The Citadel were to win and met JMU possibly, that would be interesting going against our former coach. He would definitely have a leg up on knowing the opposition.

[Thumper 76]

no bowls.com = no bulls**t There are so many things wrong and unbalanced, even with regionalization that would go different than listed.

I would like to think if UND is also seeded the committee has enough integrity to stick with their avoid conference match ups mantra and send SDSU to Grand Forks instead of Fargo again.


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[BisonFan02]

I would like to think if UND is also seeded the committee has enough integrity to stick with their avoid conference match ups mantra and send SDSU to Grand Forks instead of Fargo again.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yup......the #2 seed gets fed either SDSU or Montana.....the #8 seed buys you Maine or Lehigh.....awesome. xlolx

[FargoBison]

Yeah, I have big problem with where nobowls put SDSU, it makes no sense to create a rematch situation. Neither Montana nor SDSU played UND this year, so they would obviously be paired with the Fighting Hawks.

[Bisonwinagn]

Yup......the #2 seed gets fed either SDSU or Montana.....the #8 seed buys you Maine or Lehigh.....awesome. xlolx

Switching these two games makes sense. UND didn't play Montana and UND / SDSU are basically 8 vs 9 seeds.

[Thumper 76]

Yup......the #2 seed gets fed either SDSU or Montana.....the #8 seed buys you Maine or Lehigh.....awesome. xlolx

Just once I want use to have a seed to see who we get. One time. Please.


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[Bisonwinagn]

That bottom half would be a blood bath. Just based off of this "bracket" this is example A as to why they need to go to a 1-24 seeding.

Why would anyone think they could possible seed 24 teams anywhere close to accurate??? They can't even get 8 correct.

[BigSouthFan]

NoBowls.com Bracket

http://nobowls.com/images/week11.png

Best possible route for CSU to make some noise. I think they handle Wofford. They've had The Citadel's number. JMU a tough go but any team in the 3rd round is, and Chadwell has had Houston's number. And the team wouldn't be awestruck or shell-shocked in a return to the FargoDome. Only issue would be playing FOUR option teams in a row starting with Kennesaw this weekend. Defense would be in terrible shape by the NDSU trip. Just what if's here.

Also, with a weak bubble, if Liberty beats Coastal by 2 or 3 scores, do they have a shot?

[CappinHard]

That bottom half would be a blood bath. Just based off of this "bracket" this is example A as to why they need to go to a 1-24 seeding.

Screw that bracket. I agree on seeding 1-24. Is regionalization the only thing stopping them from not doing that? If so, can we start a gofundme page to raise money to help with travel costs so we can have a legit tournament?

[dudeitsaid]

100% agree. but if someone points to that game and states "We beat a very good WSU team" in reference to the one that is performing NOW, that is false and simplistic. That's all i'm saying.


"You Can't run with #81!"

LOL, ok. I'll take the troll bait.

I would take that win a hundred times over any win SHSU has, or "coulda, woulda, shoulda" had against NMSU.

BTW, if history is any indicator, at least for EWU, playing an FBS team close, or beating an FBS team usually translates into a pretty good season. And it's a heck of a feather in the cap of an FCS team, and increases our exposure. I've watched most of Wazzu's games this year, and I have yet to see one that doesn't reference EWU.

I'm not sure if you are trying to take a dump on EWU's signature win this season, but from what I've seen, it is better than any win I can see in SHSU's history. But I'm not a Bearkat fan, so maybe you hold onto something as a better win than that. I guess maybe your NAIA co-championship in 64 would be the greatest moment of SHSU history? Is it your 2011 win against FBS New Mexico, who won one game that year? It's probably one of your two playoff wins against EWU, and I gotta hand it to you, those were solid wins.

WSU has certainly improved throughout the season, but they were a dang good team then. To say they were not is...well, false and simplistic.

[Rjones61]

LOL, ok. I'll take the troll bait.

I would take that win a hundred times over any win SHSU has, or "coulda, woulda, shoulda" had against NMSU.

BTW, if history is any indicator, at least for EWU, playing an FBS team close, or beating an FBS team usually translates into a pretty good season. And it's a heck of a feather in the cap of an FCS team, and increases our exposure. I've watched most of Wazzu's games this year, and I have yet to see one that doesn't reference EWU.

I'm not sure if you are trying to take a dump on EWU's signature win this season, but from what I've seen, it is better than any win I can see in SHSU's history. But I'm not a Bearkat fan, so maybe you hold onto something as a better win than that. I guess maybe your NAIA co-championship in 64 would be the greatest moment of SHSU history? Is it your 2011 win against FBS New Mexico, who won one game that year? It's probably one of your two playoff wins against EWU, and I gotta hand it to you, those were solid wins.

WSU has certainly improved throughout the season, but they were a dang good team then. To say they were not is...well, false and simplistic.

https://cdn-enterprise.discourse.org/boingboing/uploads/default/original/3X/f/2/f2db8f4542a01e7ad8fb2894a9951ab27a5f090c.gif

[caribbeanhen]

Tough bracket to figure out, the bubble is a mess but fortunately some teams play each other which will make things clearer next week. For example I am projecting Maine over NH and CP over UNC.


San Diego at Cal Poly vs 1. EWU
Weber State at SDSU vs 8. UND
St Francis at YSU vs 5. JMU
WIU at UCA vs 4. SHSU


Charleston Southern at Wofford vs 6. The Citadel
Illinois State at Chattanooga vs 3. JSU
Samford at Villanova vs 7. Richmond
Maine at Lehigh vs 2. NDSU



Autobids: EWU, Charleston Southern, JMU, SDSU, St. Francis, Jacksonville State, Lehigh, San Diego, The Citadel, SHSU


At Large: NDSU,Chattanooga, Richmond, UND, UCA, YSU, Cal Poly, Villanova, Samford, Wofford, Maine, WIU, Illinois State, Weber State


Bubble: Albany, Montana, UNC, UNH, UNI, NCCU/NCAT, Fordham, UT Martin



Samford at Nova would be an interesting game.... like playoff games should be

[RabidRabbit]

Samford at Nova would be an interesting game.... like playoff games should be

This is the best possible bracket that I've seen. It also emphasizes that UND/SDSU will either play EWU or NDSU in the 3rd round. It would be nice if the two Southland opponents can miss playing until later in tourney. History suggests that they won't.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ex189]

I don't see Charleston Southern earning a home game. I would love to be wrong though

[BigSouthFan]

I don't see Charleston Southern earning a home game. I would love to be wrong though
No home game for CSU. Would require being seeded because you guys won't win a bid due to budget/facilities. And you messed that seed up with the GW blunder.

[Professor]

i'm still wondering if a MEAC school gets in

[FargoBison]

i'm still wondering if a MEAC school gets in

I think NC A&T is the only MEAC school with a real shot.

[WileECoyote06]

i'm still wondering if a MEAC school gets in

Y'all will get in after we win Saturday. Enjoy the playoffs!

xsmiley_wix

[Professor Chaos]

I think NC A&T is the only MEAC school with a real shot.
Losing to NC Central would be a brutal loss though IMO. NC Central isn't even in the top 200 according to Sagarin (slightly below Dayton right now) and they're closer to 300 according to Massey (behind numerous D2s). Obviously they'd get a bump if they beat A&T but I'd have a hard time seeing any strong case for A&T should they lose to NCCU, especially without any MEAC representation on the selection committee.

[Hambone]

Pretty sure that if UND is seeded (and SDSU isn't) that SDSU will be in a spot to go to UND rather than NDSU. Then the seeding will work out so that UND/NDSU are seeded so they will meet in the quarterfinals (1 vs 8, 2 vs 7, etc). Will be interesting to see how it actually works.

SDSU scares me too. Not sure we match up well with them.

[kalm]

i'm still wondering if a MEAC school gets in

Why should they? They chose to send their champs elsewhere.

[BigSouthFan]

Why should they? They chose to send their champs elsewhere.

Don't punish the kids for the actions of some old guys in suits. NCAT is a solid team with a FBS win that could beat a good bit of the bubble teams this year.

[WrenFGun]

Don't punish the kids for the actions of some old guys in suits. NCAT is a solid team with a FBS win that could beat a good bit of the bubble teams this year.

...maaaayybee. I'm not sure I think they'd be favored against any of UNH, Maine, Albany, Montana, Cal Poly, Weber State, Northern Colorado, UNI, WIU, ISU-R, etc. The only MEAC team that I've seen since I've begun watching FCS 12 years ago that belonged in the playoffs was SC State who torturously got matched up with the App. State juggernaut on a regular basis.

UNH went into Bethune Cookman with a QB who'd never started a game and absolutely routed them. Maybe NCAT is better than that, but I'm not confident.

[ngineer]

Does one just insert UNH for Maine if the Wildcats win?

[FargoBison]

Does one just insert UNH for Maine if the Wildcats win?
Yeah....it's probably a play in game

Sent from my LG-H810 using Tapatalk

[MRuler]

Wouldn't Albany get in before UNH if UNH were beat Maine and Albany knocked off SBU? I know its a long shot but I would think that would/should/could happen. A 7-4 season at Albany would be a positive step for Albany in its growth within the CAA. With decent QB play we probably get an 8th win. Oh well.

[kalm]

Wouldn't Albany get in before UNH if UNH were beat Maine and Albany knocked off SBU? I know its a long shot but I would think that would/should/could happen. A 7-4 season at Albany would be a positive step for Albany in its growth within the CAA. With decent QB play we probably get an 8th win. Oh well.

Albany should be in over UNH. Better wins and no loss to Dartmouth.

[FargoBison]

Losing to NC Central would be a brutal loss though IMO. NC Central isn't even in the top 200 according to Sagarin (slightly below Dayton right now) and they're closer to 300 according to Massey (behind numerous D2s). Obviously they'd get a bump if they beat A&T but I'd have a hard time seeing any strong case for A&T should they lose to NCCU, especially without any MEAC representation on the selection committee.

They need some help but if a few things bounced their way it could happen.

[DirtyDukes]

no bowls.com = no bulls**t There are so many things wrong and unbalanced, even with regionalization that would go different than listed.

Do you mean nobowls = bulls**t? Also, this is "if the season ended today." Dude knows whats up at the end of the season, though: Since its inception in 2008, NoBowls has correctly predicted 129 of the 136 teams selected to participate in the FCS postseason.

[uBear]

Yeah....it's probably a play in game

Sent from my LG-H810 using Tapatalk

Is that the same for Northern Colorado-Cal Poly?

[McNeeserocket]

I thought that the Committee was supposed to try and not pit two teams against each other early in the playoffs if they already played during the season. Case in point: If Sam Houston wins Southland, they will get a 1st round bye. Then UCA plays first round playoff game and if they win they should not play Sam Houston next game because they just played each other the last week of the regular season as conference opponents.

I remember reading this earlier this year. Anybody else remember this? This would be especially true after what happened last year with Sam Houston and McNeese (McNeese had the first round bye, only to meet Sam Houston the next week after beating them late in the regular season). Also happened to Missouri Valley teams (as they had 5 teams last year in playoffs and 4 were on same side of bracket).

There was talk of scrapping the pairing on just regionalization.

[bostonspider]

I know there is not supposed to be a rematch in the actual first round, but as you said there were numerous ones in the second round last year, including Richmond vs. William & Mary who had met in the regular season finale.

[Professor Chaos]

I thought that the Committee was supposed to try and not pit two teams against each other early in the playoffs if they already played during the season. Case in point: If Sam Houston wins Southland, they will get a 1st round bye. Then UCA plays first round playoff game and if they win they should not play Sam Houston next game because they just played each other the last week of the regular season as conference opponents.

I remember reading this earlier this year. Anybody else remember this? This would be especially true after what happened last year with Sam Houston and McNeese (McNeese had the first round bye, only to meet Sam Houston the next week after beating them late in the regular season). Also happened to Missouri Valley teams (as they had 5 teams last year in playoffs and 4 were on same side of bracket).

There was talk of scrapping the pairing on just regionalization.


I know there is not supposed to be a rematch in the actual first round, but as you said there were numerous ones in the second round last year, including Richmond vs. William & Mary who had met in the regular season finale.
Yeah, the rule is only conference rematches are to be avoided (unless two conference teams didn't play each other in the regular season) and only if it's both team's first playoff game so they leave themselves a massive loophole to set up as many regular season rematches as they want in the 2nd round. I think last year 5 of the 8 2nd round games were regular season rematches and it could've been 6.

I really wish they would eliminate regular season rematches if it is *either* team's first playoff game (meaning on possible rematches until the quarterfinals) but that would just cost too much money apparently. xrotatehx

[Gangtackle11]

Albany should be in over UNH. Better wins and no loss to Dartmouth.

You would think so with H2H win. UNH AD is on the selection committee. Just saying!

[FargoBison]

Stats...Bracket....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxT7O5aUcAANIlQ.jpg

[JSUSoutherner]

Stats...Bracket....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxT7O5aUcAANIlQ.jpg
No way UCA and Sam Houston are both seeded.

I wouldnt mind being paired up with EWU like that, as long as SDSU takes them out in the second round. Can I count on the Jacks? :D

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Liberty?!?!

[FargoBison]

Liberty?!?!

Yeah....That is clearly a huge mistake by Stats. On their website where they go into more detail they have Liberty getting the auto for some strange reason.

Liberty could still get the auto but if that happens CSU won't be a playoff team.

[F'N Hawks]

Stats...Bracket....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxT7O5aUcAANIlQ.jpg

UND wants no part of the best program in the country. Put the Noog somewhere else, please.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

UND wants no part of the best program in the country. Put the Noog somewhere else, please.

I don't want Lehigh to have to face NDSU in the second round! The Mountain Hawks could advance this year but the Fargo Dome is a death sentence....

JMU wouldn't be a bad second round destination. Neither would Conway, AR....

[ccd494]

UND wants no part of the best program in the country. Put the Noog somewhere else, please.

Hey, Maine is 2-0 on the road against the SoCon in opening round NCAA games!

[F'N Hawks]

Hey, Maine is 2-0 on the road against the SoCon in opening round NCAA games!

:D Not discounting Maine at all. More of a dig at "this is our year to win it all" Noog fan(s). Actually have not watched one down of football for Maine or Chattanooga. But, apparent you both are pretty good or wouldn't be in the bracket.

[FlamingHot]

Yeah....That is clearly a huge mistake by Stats. On their website where they go into more detail they have Liberty getting the auto for some strange reason.

Liberty could still get the auto but if that happens CSU won't be a playoff team.

The Stats bracket is if the season ended today.

[ccd494]

:D Not discounting Maine at all. More of a dig at "this is our year to win it all" Noog fan(s). Actually have not watched one down of football for Maine or Chattanooga. But, apparent you both are pretty good or wouldn't be in the bracket.

I know. Just a dig at App State.

[FargoBison]

The Stats bracket is if the season ended today.

I guess technically it is right since Liberty is 4-1 and CSU is 3-1 but it ignores CSU having the tiebreaker and basically needing to lose to KSU for Liberty to get it. This is why people shouldn't be doing this type of bracket at this point in the season.

[RootinFerDukes]

Stats' bracket is as awful as their poll. Just shake your head at adding in Liberty as of this past week.

[deez_na]

Does UNI sneak into the playoffs with a win over SDSU this weekend? 6-5 will be tough to get in but I think they have an outside shot.

[Professor Chaos]

UND wants no part of the best program in the country. Put the Noog somewhere else, please.
I continue to be flabbergasted by the fact that the people doing these projections think that an unseeded SDSU is going to be put somewhere else other than fed into a seeded NDSU or seeded UND. Maybe if for some reason they match up SDSU with another team that's within bus distance of a seed like against Chattanooga feeding into Jacksonville St it's possible. But there's no way they would match up SDSU and USD feeding into EWU taking away pretty much a sure bus trip for SDSU to UND/NDSU (unless San Diego made Pioneer League football history).

[leatherneck177]

I guess technically it is right since Liberty is 4-1 and CSU is 3-1 but it ignores CSU having the tiebreaker and a basically needing to lose to KSU for Liberty to get it. This is why people shouldn't be doing this type of bracket at this point in the season.

THIS. THANK YOU.

[F'N Hawks]

I continue to be flabbergasted by the fact that the people doing these projections think that an unseeded SDSU is going to be put somewhere else other than fed into a seeded NDSU or seeded UND. Maybe if for some reason they match up SDSU with another team that's within bus distance of a seed like against Chattanooga feeding into Jacksonville St it's possible. But there's no way they would match up SDSU and USD feeding into EWU taking away pretty much a sure bus trip for SDSU to UND/NDSU (unless San Diego made Pioneer League football history).

The only reason I give this bracket any time is because Haley had to have been in on it. That guy seems to always know who is in and who isn't come selection weekend. For them to place random teams in distant spots makes me think/hope they may be adding some flights in the first couple rounds this year. We will see.

[F'N Hawks]

FWIW, it appears the D3 committee added a couple extra flights in the first round so as to give a couple teams home games that they deserved.

[deez_na]

FWIW, it appears the D3 committee added a couple extra flights in the first round so as to give a couple teams home games that they deserved.

How confident do you feel about UND possibly playing in Fargo in the Quarters?

[Gangtackle11]

I don't want Lehigh to have to face NDSU in the second round! The Mountain Hawks could advance this year but the Fargo Dome is a death sentence....

JMU wouldn't be a bad second round destination. Neither would Conway, AR....

Lehigh is a good team. A great team in the PL. Offense is good enough to hang with many teams, but this team isn't going any further than Villanova. Both are flawed & you have the PL "sowing your oats" bloated feeling.

[WrenFGun]

You would think so with H2H win. UNH AD is on the selection committee. Just saying!

It's a tough call. Certainly hoping they lose! I think Albany could be in trouble with 4 FCS losses and a 4-4 record in the conference [UNH would finish 6-2 with a win over Maine (who Albany lost to) and would only have 3 FCS losses]. I think Albany has an objectively better resume, though, and if we haven't seen so much emphasis on conference records in the past, I think it's probably an argument Albany wins. There might be enough variables (performance down the stretch is at best 3-3, 4 FCS losses, mediocre conference record) to throw a wrench, but they've got better wins and better losses than UNH.

[kalm]

It's a tough call. Certainly hoping they lose! I think Albany could be in trouble with 4 FCS losses and a 4-4 record in the conference [UNH would finish 6-2 with a win over Maine (who Albany lost to) and would only have 3 FCS losses]. I think Albany has an objectively better resume, though, and if we haven't seen so much emphasis on conference records in the past, I think it's probably an argument Albany wins. There might be enough variables (performance down the stretch is at best 3-3, 4 FCS losses, mediocre conference record) to throw a wrench, but they've got better wins and better losses than UNH.

Fair assessment. How about UNH and Montana? Believe it or not, Montana's SoS is somewhere around 24 where UNH's is like 58 (going off memory). Maine would be UNH's one good win vs. St. Francis and UNI for the Griz.

I think Weber State and UNC (if they beat Poly) should also be in the discussion for one of the last spots if UNH is.

[PantherRob82]

Fair assessment. How about UNH and Montana? Believe it or not, Montana's SoS is somewhere around 24 where UNH's is like 58 (going off memory). Maine would be UNH's one good win vs. St. Francis and UNI for the Griz.

I think Weber State and UNC (if they beat Poly) should also be in the discussion for one of the last spots if UNH is.

Could you imagine Northern Colorado in the playoffs? That would be crazy!

[Gangtackle11]

Fair assessment. How about UNH and Montana? Believe it or not, Montana's SoS is somewhere around 24 where UNH's is like 58 (going off memory). Maine would be UNH's one good win vs. St. Francis and UNI for the Griz.

I think Weber State and UNC (if they beat Poly) should also be in the discussion for one of the last spots if UNH is.

If that's the case why wouldn't those Big Sky teams be in play with Maine if they win?

Maine has beaten 1 above .500 team (Albany) & would add a 6-5 UNH if the win.

It's why I think the CAA may be a 3 playoff team league this season. These 7-4 Big Sky teams & the 6-5 MVFC teams may sneak in before the Maine/UNH winner.

The need for another eastern team to balance out the region may be the only reason they take the Maine/UNH winner.

[FargoBison]

Fair assessment. How about UNH and Montana? Believe it or not, Montana's SoS is somewhere around 24 where UNH's is like 58 (going off memory). Maine would be UNH's one good win vs. St. Francis and UNI for the Griz.

I think Weber State and UNC (if they beat Poly) should also be in the discussion for one of the last spots if UNH is.

Montana has a quality win problem, they really need UNI to win so they at least have something on their resume. I like Weber, UNC has a DII win which may hurt them because the MVFC could potentially have stronger six win teams.

[WrenFGun]

If that's the case why wouldn't those Big Sky teams be in play with Maine if they win?

Maine has beaten 1 above .500 team (Albany) & would add a 6-5 UNH if the win.

It's why I think the CAA may be a 3 playoff team league this season. These 7-4 Big Sky teams & the 6-5 MVFC teams may sneak in before the Maine/UNH winner.

The need for another eastern team to balance out the region may be the only reason they take the Maine/UNH winner.

I think the only thing a Maine win does is put them clearly in front of Albany, FWIW. All of these bubble teams have problems, IMO, but I think the reason a 7-4 Maine or UNH could get in is that they would be 6-2 in conference, compared to a number of these bubble teams with 4 FCS losses and/or 4 conference losses (Montana, Albany, Illinois State, WIU). I think most folks think it would be tough to pass on a team that finishes 2nd in the CAA (tied with say, Villanova and Richmond, even though UNH played neither of them) in favor of a team that finished say, 7th in the CAA or 7th in the Big Sky.

FWIW, though, totally with you on Weber. Unimpressive resume, don't think you can ignore the wins and conference record. I have them in with a win, probably comfortably.

A sleeper one to watch is Samford/ETSU. I think Samford is deserving regardless, but might they be out if they slip on that one somehow and fall to 1-3 in their last 4? I think they would, even though they're better than a lot of these other teams we're talking about.

[leatherneck177]

Montana has a quality win problem, they really need UNI to win so they at least have something on their resume. I like Weber, UNC has a DII win which may hurt them because the MVFC could potentially have stronger six win teams.

I agree, if UNI loses, they are no longer considered a "quality win" at 5-6. Same thing goes if Western loses, as they would be 6-5...so not really a quality win for ISUr or UNI. The UNI-SDSU game could have effects that move throughout the MVFC and Big Sky.

[Professor]

...maaaayybee. I'm not sure I think they'd be favored against any of UNH, Maine, Albany, Montana, Cal Poly, Weber State, Northern Colorado, UNI, WIU, ISU-R, etc. The only MEAC team that I've seen since I've begun watching FCS 12 years ago that belonged in the playoffs was SC State who torturously got matched up with the App. State juggernaut on a regular basis.

UNH went into Bethune Cookman with a QB who'd never started a game and absolutely routed them. Maybe NCAT is better than that, but I'm not confident.

Guess you weren't following FCS in the late 90's. FAMU was a handful

[BisonTru]

My take:




Autos - Green
At large - Yellow






Seeds
Play-ins





1
Eastern Washington
Charleston Southern

San Diego



2
Jacksonville St
St. Francis

Cal Poly
1. Eastern Washignton


3
North Dakota St
San Diego





4
James Madison
Lehigh

Northern Iowa
8. North Dakota


5
The Citadel
Youngstown St

Illionis St



6
Central Arkansas
Villanova





7
Richmond
Sam Houston St

Youngstown St



8
North Dakota
S Dakota St

Lehigh
4. James Madison




Montana







Cal Poly

Wofford
5. The Citadel




Chattanooga

Charleston South





Samford







Wofford







Albany

Montana





Northern Iowa

South Dakota St
3. North Dakota St




Illinois St









Sam Houston St
6. Central Arkansas






Samford















Villanova







St Francis
7. Richmond














Chattanooga
2. Jacksonville St






Albany















Last 4 Out:







Western Illinois







Weber St







New Hampshire







Duquensne




This is predictive of the final week. It assumes Central Arkansas gets the win in Huntsville, and Albany, UNI, and ISUr winning their final games. All of those results are favored according to Massey.

[Professor]

Why should they? They chose to send their champs elsewhere.

Lol , you can't fault the sits for their decision. We made over 500K going to the bowl game. Plus major national name recognition by playing on ABC was insane. We had over 12K applications from high school students who wanted to attend A&T.

Playoffs is now a consolation prize

[PantherRob82]

Guess you weren't following FCS in the late 90's. FAMU was a handful

If you have to go back 20 years for a reference...:D

[achrist70]

My take:




Autos - Green
At large - Yellow






Seeds
Play-ins





1
Eastern Washington
Charleston Southern

San Diego



2
Jacksonville St
St. Francis

Cal Poly
1. Eastern Washignton


3
North Dakota St
San Diego





4
James Madison
Lehigh

Northern Iowa
8. North Dakota


5
The Citadel
Youngstown St

Illionis St



6
Central Arkansas
Villanova





7
Richmond
Sam Houston St

Youngstown St



8
North Dakota
S Dakota St

Lehigh
4. James Madison




Montana







Cal Poly

Wofford
5. The Citadel




Chattanooga

Charleston South





Samford







Wofford







Albany

Montana





Northern Iowa

South Dakota St
3. North Dakota St




Illinois St









Sam Houston St
6. Central Arkansas






Samford















Villanova







St Francis
7. Richmond














Chattanooga
2. Jacksonville St






Albany















Last 4 Out:







Western Illinois







Weber St







New Hampshire







Duquensne




This is predictive of the final week. It assumes Central Arkansas gets the win in Huntsville, and Albany, UNI, and ISUr winning their final games. All of those results are favored according to Massey.

I like this, UNI could lose in the first round or make it all the way to the title game

[BisonTru]

NC A&T and NC Cent are interesting. I think NC A&T obviously has the better shot if they lose out of the celebration bowl. However, I think one thing that will really hurt both of them is not having a representative to argue in their behalf. IMO, they need to be pretty hard to ignore in order to get in. IMO, they don't have the resume that can't be overlooked, but it's close.

[FargoBison]

Not sure why I waited so long to do this but I just realized that SHSU-UCA is a flight per NCAA rules...that potential rematch might not be as locked in as a previously thought. Could easily swap UCA/WIU with CP/SD in my bracket and avoid both rematches. Travel would be the same.

[Professor]

If you have to go back 20 years for a reference...:D

Lol, some FCS schools have no history to reflect on

[The Pud]

I think Sammy will pull a Trump card and end up with No. 2 seed.

[Bison56]

I think Sammy will pull a Trump card and end up with No. 2 seed.

You should probably stop thinking.xnodx

[The Pud]

You should probably stop thinking.xnodx

Nah, I am enjoying thinking and getting lots of laughs (LOL) from reading logic you guys saying. Funny stuff!

[flyrod]

I think Sammy will pull a Trump card and end up with No. 2 seed.
Trump Card?
How many Zeros are on the end of that?
come now no dead people filling out ballots
lol


Sorry just had to troll that comment!

[Grizalltheway]

Hey flyrod, how's the fishing in the Shenandoah? Ever been out this way?

[flyrod]

Hey flyrod, how's the fishing in the Shenandoah? Ever been out this way?

Fishing
the Shendandoah is Good.... or was good so far this year, water getting cooler now so the bigger fish are still there but moving to deeper waters. Im on the North fork. Trout Fishing in the Shenandoah National Park is still "HOT"
Got a morning trip to the Park this saturday before the JMU-ELON
and never been out your way but love to go...
Fished Alaska, The UP of Northern Michigan and most of the east coast. I also do alot of Fly fishing the saltwater off the NC coast.
Hook me up!

[BEAR]

Fishing
the Shendandoah is Good.... or was good so far this year, water getting cooler now so the bigger fish are still there but moving to deeper waters. Im on the North fork. Trout Fishing in the Shenandoah National Park is still "HOT"
Got a morning trip to the Park this saturday before the JMU-ELON
and never been out your way but love to go...
Fished Alaska, The UP of Northern Michigan and most of the east coast. I also do alot of Fly fishing the saltwater off the NC coast.
Hook me up!

Wanna go "noodling"?

http://www.shangralafamilyfun.com/2010/no1a.jpg

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Holy crap that is a big catfish!!!

xeekx

[WileECoyote06]

NC A&T and NC Cent are interesting. I think NC A&T obviously has the better shot if they lose out of the celebration bowl. However, I think one thing that will really hurt both of them is not having a representative to argue in their behalf. IMO, they need to be pretty hard to ignore in order to get in. IMO, they don't have the resume that can't be overlooked, but it's close.

I know ours isn't great. Which is why we'll be more than happy to send the farmers to the playoffs and claim an outright title.

[Serpentor]

Wanna go "noodling"?

http://www.shangralafamilyfun.com/2010/no1a.jpg

Holy crap Humanoids from the Deep wasn't a horror movie, it was a documentary!