CAA AQ Scenarios

[HailSzczur]

Bored and trying to figure out the CAA AQ scenarios with 2 weeks remaining. Let me know if you find anything wrong. Here's a little cheat sheet and my stab at the scenarios.
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23810&stc=1

JMU beats Nova (11/12) – JMU (H2H w/ UNH if needed)

Nova beats JMU(11/12):
-UNH beats Albany (11/12)


JMU, Nova, UNH all win (11/19) - JMU (Sagarin)
Just JMU wins (11/19) - JMU
Just Nova wins (11/19) - Nova
Just UNH wins (11/19) - UNH
UNH & Nova win (11/19) - Nova (JMU common opponent)
JMU & UNH win (11/19) - JMU (H2H w/ UNH)
JMU & Nova win (11/19) - Nova (H2H w/ JMU)
JMU, Nova, UNH lose (11/19) - 3 way tie + possible Maine/SBU and/or UR (must win out)...JMU (Sagarin)

- UNH loses (11/12)


Nova win (11/19) - Nova (H2H w/ JMU if needed)
Nova loss, JMU win (11/19) - JMU
JMU, Nova loss (11/19) - Nova, JMU, + any of: UNH, Maine, SBU, or Richmond tie (must win out)...JMU (Sagarin)

[TheKingpin28]

So the defacto title will be this coming week again? If JMU wins, its game set and match. If they lose it is almost guarenteed to be a 2 way tie if not 3 way tie with Villanova getting the AQ and 2/3 teams getting a share of the title.

[HailSzczur]

So the defacto title will be this coming week again? If JMU wins, its game set and match. If they lose it is almost guarenteed to be a 2 way tie if not 3 way tie with Villanova getting the AQ and 2/3 teams getting a share of the title.

Yep pretty much.
-JMU is the only team that can win outright without outside help.
-Nova wins outright if they win out and JMU loses out
-UNH wins outright if they win out, JMU loses out, and Nova loses to Delaware
-Any other scenario involves shared titles

And as long as JMU and Nova don't both lose to Elon and Delaware respectively, 1 of the 2 of them takes the AQ

[KPSUL]

Yep pretty much.
-JMU is the only team that can win outright without outside help.
-Nova wins outright if they win out and JMU loses out
-UNH wins outright if they win out, JMU loses out, and Nova loses to Delaware
-Any other scenario involves shared titles

And as long as JMU and Nova don't both lose to Elon and Delaware respectively, 1 of the 2 of them takes the AQ

Not sure you've got this completely right. In the case of a 3-way tie, the first CAA tiebreaker is the best win-loss percentage among the 3 teams IF they have all played each other. In this case, Since NOVA and UNH haven't played this season, it would go further down the tiebreaker to comparing scores with common CAA opponents starting with the common opponents with the best conference records. If that was a draw clear down the standings it would then be decided by the end of regular season Sagarin, Elo-Chess, methodology. If all three teams ended up 7-1, there would be no common opponent that had beaten any of them. Consequently, the Sagarin end of season rankings would be used to pick the auto-qualifier. If anyone reads this differently, please post here.

[HailSzczur]

Not sure you've got this completely right. In the case of a 3-way tie, the first CAA tiebreaker is the best win-loss percentage among the 3 teams IF they have all played each other. In this case, Since NOVA and UNH haven't played this season, it would go further down the tiebreaker to comparing scores with common CAA opponents starting with the common opponents with the best conference records. If that was a draw clear down the standings it would then be decided by the end of regular season Sagarin, Elo-Chess, methodology. If all three teams ended up 7-1, there would be no common opponent that had beaten any of them. Consequently, the Sagarin end of season rankings would be used to pick the auto-qualifier. If anyone reads this differently, please post here.

That's the way I read the tie breakers as well. With a Nova/UNH/JMU 7-1 tie, JMU almost certain to take it I believe. These are the rankings prior to this week:
99. JMU (62.12)
120. Nova (56.61)
137. UNH (53.90)
I'd have to imagine JMU's margin over Nova and UNH would widen this week after beating 101. Richmond (61.76). That would be tough for either team to catch.

In a 4+ way 6-2 tie, it's anybody's geuss

[mcveyrl]

While this would be correct for the AQ, I believe that we would all be "co-champs" if there was a 2 or 3 way tie at the top, so it might just be an academic exercise since I don't think a 7-1 CAA team is getting left out of the playoffs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Gangtackle11]

While this would be correct for the AQ, I believe that we would all be "co-champs" if there was a 2 or 3 way tie at the top, so it might just be an academic exercise since I don't think a 7-1 CAA team is getting left out of the playoffs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

True, but getting a 1st round bye is high stakes to be resolved by the order of finish.

[HailSzczur]

True, but getting a 1st round bye is high stakes to be resolved by the order of finish.

AQ doesn't guarantee a bye, look at Nova '12 we played on the road. If I remember right, the playoff guidelines pretty much guarantee AQs a home game (1st or 2nd round, whichever applies) as long as they submit an appropriate bid.

If Nova and JMU tie at 7-1, I think there's a very good chance both teams get seeded

[mcveyrl]

AQ doesn't guarantee a bye, look at Nova '12 we played on the road. If I remember right, the playoff guidelines pretty much guarantee AQs a home game (1st or 2nd round, whichever applies) as long as they submit an appropriate bid.

If Nova and JMU tie at 7-1, I think there's a very good chance both teams get seeded

I don't even think that's true about the AQ, but I haven't looked at those guidelines in a while. Otherwise the NEC and Pioneer champs would get home games and they almost never do.

Regardless, I think you're right about 7-1 JMU/'Nova seeds - although if it came down to one or the other you guys would get it, but because of the head to head and not the AQ necessarily.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[RootinFerDukes]

Basically the JMU/VU game next week is the CAA title game.

[Nova09]

Basically the JMU/VU game next week is the CAA title game.

That's so weird because Albany fans had me convinced a game the first weekend of october involving neither of the teams you mentioned would decide the CAA

[HailSzczur]

Updated Sagarin. Even with a win over JMU, it's gonna be tough for anyone to catch JMU inside a computer
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23814&stc=1

[caribbeanhen]

Updated Sagarin. Even with a win over JMU, it's gonna be tough for anyone to catch JMU inside a computer
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23814&stc=1

Delaware over Maine and William and Mary?
to be fair, The Hens gave both of those games away if you go back in look but still........

[melloware13]

Delaware over Maine and William and Mary?
to be fair, The Hens gave both of those games away if you go back in look but still........

Del State & Lafayette = quality wins

[HailSzczur]

Del State & Lafayette = quality wins

Delaware State is trying as hard as they can, but they still can't take the bottom spot in D-1. What do they need to do to drop another 5 spots?