AGS Top 25 - How They Fared Week 2 2016

[superman7515]

Still a couple of games being played, but everyone on the list has finished playing, so I'll post it up. Keep an eye on Hawaii/Tennessee-Martin, might have yet another FBS upset on our hands as they go back and forth trading scores with the Warriors, and since UTM didn't get any votes last week, they aren't on the spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AKD72doLZ1_y4uVKzhnzjtFzI9wgUUVXkir5b6aulNQ/edit?usp=sharing

As always, if you see any errors, please let me know via PM so that I can get that changed ASAP. You can feel free to leave a note in this thread, but there's no guarantee I won't miss a post, so a PM would be appreciated. Thank you all for making "How They Fared" the number 1 tool on AGS for filling out your brackets each week and for your help in keeping it accurate and useful!

[chattownmocs]

ut-martin is the best team in the ovc.

[BEAR]

Samford deserves their ranking.
UCA deserves theirs.

[superman7515]

North Carolina A&T looks like they are the cream of the crop in the MEAC.

[ASU33]

North Carolina A&T looks like they are the cream of the crop in the MEAC.

Let's see em beat NC Central first.

[veinup]

xcoffeex ready for montana to move up to that #3 spot

[WTFCollegefootballfan]

xcoffeex ready for montana to move up to that #3 spot


xlmaox

[PantherRob82]

xcoffeex ready for montana to move up to that #3 spot

Montana is my new #1 since Grambling lost.

[JSUSoutherner]

ut-martin is the best team in the ovc.
xchinscratchx......... xnodx

[TheKingpin28]

This will not be an easy week for voting. I have an idea for top10 and after that, well it is going to be interesting.

[superman7515]

I forgot to mention, due to Charleston Southern having two D2 teams on the schedule, they are already at the point where they can't lose another game if they want to reach seven D1 wins, hence them being highlighted in yellow already. That's the earliest a team has ever reached that point thanks to them having a game in Week 0 and the dual D2 games. Realistically, with their remaining schedule, they will need to win the conference anyway, but just wanted to mention why they are highlighted in yellow already.

[superman7515]

Most Significant Win/Loss... Your thoughts?
#1 NDSU over #9 EWU (could be win or loss)

#13 Montana over #3 UNI (could be win or loss)

#11 Illinois State over FBS Northwestern

#14 The Citadel over #30 Furman (could be win or loss)

#16 Western Illinois over #19 Northern Arizona (could be win or loss)

#23 Samford over #31 Central Arkansas (could be win or loss)

#29 New Hampshire over (ORV) Holy Cross

#34 UNorth Dakota falls by a point to FBS Bowling Green (close loss to FBS could be significant)

#37 North Carolina A&T over FBS Kent State

(ORV) Eastern Illinois over FBS Miami Ohio

(ORV) USouth Dakota over (ORV) Weber State (could be win or loss)

Tennessee-Martin falls by 5 in a back & forth game with FBS Hawaii (close loss to FBS could be significant since Tennessee-Martin garnered no attention last week)

[taper]

I haven't picked them yet, but a higher ranked team beating a lower rank normally isn't significant. I'm also not going to punish losers too much in those cases. Lower rank beating high rank is different...

[centennial]

I forgot to mention, due to Charleston Southern having two D2 teams on the schedule, they are already at the point where they can't lose another game if they want to reach seven D1 wins, hence them being highlighted in yellow already. That's the earliest a team has ever reached that point thanks to them having a game in Week 0 and the dual D2 games. Realistically, with their remaining schedule, they will need to win the conference anyway, but just wanted to mention why they are highlighted in yellow already.

D2 games are partially counted, and 6 win WIU did make it in last year. IMO getting in with only 6 D1 wins is going to be hard for CSU.

[superman7515]

D2 games are partially counted, and 6 win WIU did make it in last year. IMO getting in with only 6 D1 wins is going to be hard for CSU.

I understand WIU got in, but it's still only happened once in FCS history, and they have a really weak schedule outside of NDSU the FBS game against the Seminoles. My point was they pretty much have to win the conference because their SOS is going to be too weak to get in as an at-large.

[Milktruck74]

North Carolina A&T looks like they are the cream of the crop in the MEAC.

Is this like being the tallest midget? The skinniest kid at fat camp?

[superman7515]

Is this like being the tallest midget? The skinniest kid at fat camp?

A&T has the same number of national championships as Chattanooga, so yes.

[Twentysix]

Most Significant Win/Loss... Your thoughts?
#1 NDSU over #9 EWU (could be win or loss)

#13 Montana over #3 UNI (could be win or loss)

#11 Illinois State over FBS Northwestern

#14 The Citadel over #30 Furman (could be win or loss)

#16 Western Illinois over #19 Northern Arizona (could be win or loss)

#23 Samford over #31 Central Arkansas (could be win or loss)

#29 New Hampshire over (ORV) Holy Cross

#34 UNorth Dakota falls by a point to FBS Bowling Green (close loss to FBS could be significant)

#37 North Carolina A&T over FBS Kent State

(ORV) Eastern Illinois over FBS Miami Ohio

(ORV) USouth Dakota over (ORV) Weber State (could be win or loss)

Tennessee-Martin falls by 5 in a back & forth game with FBS Hawaii (close loss to FBS could be significant since Tennessee-Martin garnered no attention last week)

Those four are the most significant wins imo.

[BisonTru]

D2 games are partially counted.

No, they aren't.


I understand WIU got in, but it's still only happened once in FCS history, and they have a really weak schedule outside of NDSU the FBS game against the Seminoles. My point was they pretty much have to win the conference because their SOS is going to be too weak to get in as an at-large.

Supe the official rule has changed from 7 D1 wins to 6 D1 wins. JMO, but I would change your sheet to reflect the new rules which have been in effect for a while.

Either way it's your sheet and you put a lot of work into it, so I'm fine either way you want to do it, just my two cents.

Also, if Chuck South beats CCU and loses another conference game to lose the auto, IMO, they'd have a decent resume to get in.

[Twentysix]

No, they aren't.



Supe the official rule has changed from 7 D1 wins to 6 D1 wins. JMO, but I would change your sheet to reflect the new rules which have been in effect for a while.

Either way it's your sheet and you put a lot of work into it, so I'm fine either way you want to do it, just my two cents.

Also, if Chuck South beats CCU and loses another conference game to lose the auto, IMO, they'd have a decent resume to get in.

You yourself just said that D2 games don't count. That means they would be 5-4.

[BisonTru]

You yourself just said that D2 games don't count. That means they would be 5-4.

You're right. I was thinking they only had one sub D1 game. Chuck South has to win out to be in consideration which would mean they win the conference and auto anyway.

[Twentysix]

You're right. I was thinking they only had one sub D1 game. Chuck South has to win out to be in consideration which would mean they win the conference and auto anyway.

Indeed. Which means they control their own destiny (in a really weak conference) xpeacex

[BisonTru]

Indeed. Which means they control their own destiny (in a really weak conference) xpeacex

Actually Chuck South is 0-2 vs. D1 with 7 D1 games remaining. They could go 6-1 with a win vs. CCU and loss to lose the auto and still have a considerable resume to send to the committee. They'd be 6-3 vs. D1 which is within the specs for consideration.

[kalm]

Actually Chuck South is 0-2 vs. D1 with 7 D1 games remaining. They could go 6-1 with a win vs. CCU and loss to lose the auto and still have a considerable resume to send to the committee. They'd be 6-3 vs. D1 which is within the specs for consideration.

With nowhere near WIU's resume/SOS last year.

[BisonTru]

With nowhere near WIU's resume/SOS last year.

Meh, that's a little premature. Nonetheless 6 D1 wins is the concrete rule in the rule book. I just don't know why we keep talking about 7 D1 wins like that matters.

[Daytripper]

Most Significant Win/Loss... Your thoughts?
#1 NDSU over #9 EWU (could be win or loss)

#13 Montana over #3 UNI (could be win or loss)

#11 Illinois State over FBS Northwestern

#14 The Citadel over #30 Furman (could be win or loss)

#16 Western Illinois over #19 Northern Arizona (could be win or loss)

#23 Samford over #31 Central Arkansas (could be win or loss)

#29 New Hampshire over (ORV) Holy Cross

#34 UNorth Dakota falls by a point to FBS Bowling Green (close loss to FBS could be significant)

#37 North Carolina A&T over FBS Kent State

(ORV) Eastern Illinois over FBS Miami Ohio

(ORV) USouth Dakota over (ORV) Weber State (could be win or loss)

Tennessee-Martin falls by 5 in a back & forth game with FBS Hawaii (close loss to FBS could be significant since Tennessee-Martin garnered no attention last week)


My most significant loss was Nicholls losing by 2 to FBS power Georgia. Nicholls should have won that game. Their coach had a brain fart bringing in the backup QB for a series.

[kalm]

Meh. Unless you see another Big South rising up other than CCU, where do their quality wins come from?

[BisonTru]

Meh. Unless you see another Big South rising up other than CCU, where do their quality wins come from?

A CCU win, an OT loss to NDSU, plus the only other loss to a playoff team could be enough to sneak them in, IMO. All depends on how the bubble looks, and they would rightfully be in the bubble, IMO.

Eastern Illinois got in last year, and I didn't see a quality win on their resume.

[ElCid]

Most Significant Win/Loss... Your thoughts?
#1 NDSU over #9 EWU (could be win or loss)

#13 Montana over #3 UNI (could be win or loss)

#11 Illinois State over FBS Northwestern

#14 The Citadel over #30 Furman (could be win or loss)

#16 Western Illinois over #19 Northern Arizona (could be win or loss)

#23 Samford over #31 Central Arkansas (could be win or loss)

#29 New Hampshire over (ORV) Holy Cross

#34 UNorth Dakota falls by a point to FBS Bowling Green (close loss to FBS could be significant)

#37 North Carolina A&T over FBS Kent State

(ORV) Eastern Illinois over FBS Miami Ohio

(ORV) USouth Dakota over (ORV) Weber State (could be win or loss)

Tennessee-Martin falls by 5 in a back & forth game with FBS Hawaii (close loss to FBS could be significant since Tennessee-Martin garnered no attention last week)

Is nobody considering Nicholls St? Yeah they have not received any votes but maybe they should have..... I think that would be significant, especially considering the discussion last week about what makes a loss significant. Yes, my tongue is firmly in my cheek....sort of.

[jsnow84]

Meh. Unless you see another Big South rising up other than CCU, where do their quality wins come from?

CCU is not in the Big South. In a couple of years, they will wish they never left the FCS though. :)

[ST_Lawson]

A CCU win, an OT loss to NDSU, plus the only other loss to a playoff team could be enough to sneak them in, IMO. All depends on how the bubble looks, and they would rightfully be in the bubble, IMO.

Eastern Illinois got in last year, and I didn't see a quality win on their resume.

I was going to mention that I think that a big part of why we got in was in beating two other conference playoff teams (UNI and SDSU), but I'd forgotten about EIU making it in without beating any other playoff teams. They did get 7 wins though.

But yea...depends on the bubble, but I just don't see the committee putting them in if they don't win out (winning the conference)...but that's entirely possible.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I had a really tough time ranking 3-15 this week. There wasn't much science involved...lol

[clenz]

Can I just submit last week and call it good?

[TheKingpin28]

I felt like I could have put 30 teams in square boxes for spots 3-25, thrown darts, and called that my poll. I spent about 1 hour trying to figure things out and that was frustrating.

[ngineer]

I forgot to mention, due to Charleston Southern having two D2 teams on the schedule, they are already at the point where they can't lose another game if they want to reach seven D1 wins, hence them being highlighted in yellow already. That's the earliest a team has ever reached that point thanks to them having a game in Week 0 and the dual D2 games. Realistically, with their remaining schedule, they will need to win the conference anyway, but just wanted to mention why they are highlighted in yellow already.

"They call them Mellow Yellow...(they frighten easily)"--apologies to Donovan

[MR. CHICKEN]

Can I just submit last week and call it good?


.....NO......'CAUSE N. IOWA..........LOST................BRAWK!

[clenz]

.....NO......'CAUSE N. IOWA..........LOST................BRAWK!
A loss means a team has to drop?

[MR. CHICKEN]

A loss means a team has to drop?

.......WHEN #3.....LOSES TA #[email protected]!.........DOODLE-DOO!

ps.......DON'T TRY TA SPIN YER...NEW WAVE MENTAL BLOCK.....ON DUH OL' SKOOL.....BIG BIRD!

[clenz]

.......WHEN #3.....LOSES TA #[email protected]!.........DOODLE-DOO!

ps.......DON'T TRY TA SPIN YER...NEW WAVE MENTAL BLOCK.....ON DUH OL' SKOOL.....BIG BIRD!

How do you know where I had Montana and UNI?

[JSUSoutherner]

.....NO......'CAUSE N. IOWA..........LOST................BRAWK!
So where do I put LSU on my poll? xdrunkyx

[dewey]

I had a really tough time ranking 3-15 this week. There wasn't much science involved...lol

That is also where I had the hardest time.

Dewey

[RootinFerDukes]

I also agree with others. My top 2 are obvious. My 3rd place and onward is really tough to differentiate right now. Many cupcake wins, bye weeks and FBS losses, none of which really tell me much. Some teams obviously did enough to show they deserve to move in or out of the top 10, but others didn't do enough to show they belong there.

[MR. CHICKEN]

How do you know where I had Montana and UNI?


......DON'T CARE.....WHERE YA HAD 'EM..........IT'S UH CONSENSUS POLL.....#3/#13.........BUK..BUK..BUK.....BRAWK!

[BEAR]

Well, I can't say I was happy with the outcome of the UCA v Samford game. I figured it would be close but not because UCA dominated the stats. A pick 6 and a fumble for a score was enough defense for Samford to play to get by the Bears. Strangest game I've ever seen. First half if it could go wrong it did. Fumbles, INTs, players slipping after the catch, players running wrong routes, dumb penalties..the list goes on.

Second half UCA only allowed Samford 49 yards of offense and ONE score. It's like the Bears woke up and said WTF!

But a loss is a loss even with a chance in the end to win it.

Go easy on the Bears voters. Even Samford fans will tell you this wasn't a typical "they got beat" game. They will be 2-1 next week. xnodx

[Nova09]

xcoffeex ready for montana to move up to that #3 spot

Don't think too much about that victory, it was all part of the inevitability of losing record UNI in the top 5. The FCS season doesn't really start til that happens.

[clenz]

......DON'T CARE.....WHERE YA HAD 'EM..........IT'S UH CONSENSUS POLL.....#3/#13.........BUK..BUK..BUK.....BRAWK!
That's not where this all started.

I asked about submitting my ballot from last week and you told me that since UNI lost I couldn't do that because they had to fall because they lost. I said you don't know where I had UNI or Montana so you had no idea if I needed to drop them or not.

You then spun it into "well, the AGS poll at them here". IDGAF where the AGS poll had them. That has no bearing on where I have/had them.

[SU DOG]

Well, I can't say I was happy with the outcome of the UCA v Samford game. I figured it would be close but not because UCA dominated the stats. A pick 6 and a fumble for a score was enough defense for Samford to play to get by the Bears. Strangest game I've ever seen. First half if it could go wrong it did. Fumbles, INTs, players slipping after the catch, players running wrong routes, dumb penalties..the list goes on.

Second half UCA only allowed Samford 49 yards of offense and ONE score. It's like the Bears woke up and said WTF!

But a loss is a loss even with a chance in the end to win it.

Go easy on the Bears voters. Even Samford fans will tell you this wasn't a typical "they got beat" game. They will be 2-1 next week. xnodx

UCA is a hard-nosed slobber knocker team. Those stripes won't see many losses this year. IMO, they are MUCH better than last season, and that did surprise me. To our credit, we hung on to win, which would not have been possible if we weren't a pretty good team ourselves, but UCA Bear is right, it was not in typical fashion. If the Bears drop down in anyone's poll, they are just not in the know about how good this team really is.

[BEAR]

UCA is a hard-nosed slobber knocker team. Those stripes won't see many losses this year. IMO, they are MUCH better than last season, and that did surprise me. To our credit, we hung on to win, which would not have been possible if we weren't a pretty good team ourselves, but UCA Bear is right, it was not in typical fashion. If the Bears drop down in anyone's poll, they are just not in the know about how good this team really is.

What I found promising is the fact our offense was fresh to start the second half. We had the ball for nearly 40 minutes and gave ourselves a chance to make up the mistakes from the first half. You didn't see that last year. Plus our defense looked stronger in the second half. I knew Samford's defense was tired in the fourth but you can't blame them. They had been on the field a LOOOOONG time. This game reminded me of our Sam Houston game where we had it close in the second quarter only to give up two quick scores with minutes left before halftime. Can't do that against a quality opponent like either of those teams. But I stated last year that if we didn't win last year this year would be tough.

[MR. CHICKEN]

That's not where this all started.

I asked about submitting my ballot from last week and you told me that since UNI lost I couldn't do that because they had to fall because they lost. I said you don't know where I had UNI or Montana so you had no idea if I needed to drop them or not.

You then spun it into "well, the AGS poll at them here". IDGAF where the AGS poll had them. That has no bearing on where I have/had them.


..AH GOT AN' IDEAR......AH'D BET DUH RANCH....YA HAD N.IOWA........RANKED ABOVE....DUH GRIZZWALDS...........SO DERE-FORE......MONTE MARCHES INTA DOME.......RAPES & PILLAGES.....YER HOOD......MONTANA.......CLIMBS.....UNI...FALLS.... ...GUESSIN'....MOS' POLLS AN' RATIN' SYSTEMS AGREE.........WE'LL SEE DIS AFTERNOON......DOODLES!

ps.....LOOSEN YER CORN BELT...IT'S CUTTIN' OFF VITALS....TA YER BEANIE....AWK!

[superman7515]

Actually Chuck South is 0-2 vs. D1 with 7 D1 games remaining. They could go 6-1 with a win vs. CCU and loss to lose the auto and still have a considerable resume to send to the committee. They'd be 6-3 vs. D1 which is within the specs for consideration.

0-11 is within the specs for consideration. That "concrete rule" you referenced says teams with under 6 D1 wins may have it held against them. Previously, it was under 7 D1 wins would be held against you, but someone still got in. The rule does not, nor has it ever, given a "concrete" cut off point, and yet there has still only been a single school since 1978 that made the playoffs as an at-large team with less than 7 D1 wins.

[BisonTru]

D2 games are partially counted, and 6 win WIU did make it in last year. IMO getting in with only 6 D1 wins is going to be hard for CSU.


0-11 is within the specs for consideration. That "concrete rule" you referenced says teams with under 6 D1 wins may have it held against them. Previously, it was under 7 D1 wins would be held against you, but someone still got in. The rule does not, nor has it ever, given a "concrete" cut off point, and yet there has still only been a single school since 1978 that made the playoffs as an at-large team with less than 7 D1 wins.

I'm not following Supe. You say "someone still got in" when it was 7 D1 wins. I assume that means someone got in with less than 7 D1 wins back in the day. So by my count Sam Houston and Western Illinois have both got in with only 6 D1 wins when the rule has been change and another team got in when the rule was 7.

It's your list so I'm just throwing you my two cents, but the guidelines specifically state 6 D1 wins. I realize there is wording in there that they may break that guideline, but that's more for anomaly where their just isn't any reasonable playoff teams that fit the guideline.

Again just my two cents so do what you want, but I'd go red = can't get to 6 wins, orange = can't get to 7 wins, yellow = must win out to get to get to 7 wins.