Playoffs 'Til I Die: Projecting the Playoff Field, 11/3/2015

[Lehigh Football Nation]

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/956-playoffs-till-i-die-projecting-the-fcs-playoff-field-11-3-2015

My analysis of the bracket and the field. Don't worry, Lehigh's not in the field in this prediction. :)

[RedFlash]

Your NEC analysis needs some editing. I agree that Bryant has the inside track, but they lost to CCSU. They've defeated Duquesne and SFU.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Your NEC analysis needs some editing. I agree that Bryant has the inside track, but they lost to CCSU. They've defeated Duquesne and SFU.

Thanks, fixed. Man, anyone could take the NEC.

[crusader11]

Great breakdown.

[RedFlash]

Yeah, the NEC is strange this year. Nice overall analysis.

Also, if my Flash win out, they would finish 7-3 (their win against Faith won't count) and would lose the tie-breaker to Bryant if both finish 5-1 - but there's no way they would get an at-large bid over Towson ... or just about any other team on your "7 win list."

[BisonTru]

SDSU and UND make the field and neither gets routed through Fargo? NDSU as #1, with 2 non-playoff team losses? Eastern Kentucky will most likely get routed through Chattanooga. Same could be true for SHSU through McNeese and UNI through ISU. The James Madison/Bryant matchup most likely goes through Richmond.

I have little issues with the selections, but I don't see the committee seeding and fielding the bracket this way.

[UNIFanSince1983]

I was wondering about JSU getting the 6 seed. Do you have them losing a game then? And even with having ISUr lose a game you think they end up with the 2 seed?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

SDSU and UND make the field and neither gets routed through Fargo? NDSU as #1, with 2 non-playoff team losses? Eastern Kentucky will most likely get routed through Chattanooga. Same could be true for SHSU through McNeese and UNI through ISU. The James Madison/Bryant matchup most likely goes through Richmond.

I have little issues with the selections, but I don't see the committee seeding and fielding the bracket this way.

SDSU has been routed through Fargo in years past and the Nodoaks played the Bison in the FargoDome already this year. Don't think they'll set them up again.

NDSU is interesting. If the win, I could see them as the No. 1 seed. Lose, and they definitely won't be seeded.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I was wondering about JSU getting the 6 seed. Do you have them losing a game then? And even with having ISUr lose a game you think they end up with the 2 seed?

I have JSU at 10-1, but I don't think their SOS matches up with the MVFC winner, whomever that is.

[wapiti]

I assume that Southern Utah's game @ MSU is not considered a challenging game for them. and SU can still make 7 Div 1 wins with MSU still on the schedule.

and MSU cannot get to 7 Div 1 wins. one win was against Div 2 Ft. Lewis.

Northern Colorado cannot reach 7 Div 1 wins either.

[eiu1999]

SDSU and UND make the field and neither gets routed through Fargo? NDSU as #1, with 2 non-playoff team losses? Eastern Kentucky will most likely get routed through Chattanooga. Same could be true for SHSU through McNeese and UNI through ISU. The James Madison/Bryant matchup most likely goes through Richmond.

I have little issues with the selections, but I don't see the committee seeding and fielding the bracket this way.

If EIU beats EKU in two weeks I think EKU is out.

[BisonTru]

SDSU has been routed through Fargo in years past and the Nodoaks played the Bison in the FargoDome already this year. Don't think they'll set them up again.

NDSU is interesting. If the win, I could see them as the No. 1 seed. Lose, and they definitely won't be seeded.

So what your saying is historically they've done this in the past, so I don't think they would do it again.

Bottom line: Pick at-larges, Seed the top 8, then maximize bus trips and potential bus trips.

There's only three schools that are bus trips for NDSU and they all have Dakota in their name. SDSU/UND@NDSU is just way too easy for the committee to maximize bus trips. I hope SDSU gets a seed so we can avoid this. If UND doesn't make it, its possible they could pair SDSU with say SHSU and run that match-up through McNeese. Which I could see the committee doing to avoid the NDSU/SDSU match-up for the 3rd year in the last 4. But if UND and SDSU are unseeded and NDSU is, it's just too damn tempting.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I assume that Southern Utah's game @ MSU is not considered a challenging game for them. and SU can still make 7 Div 1 wins with MSU still on the schedule.

and MSU cannot get to 7 Div 1 wins. one win was against Div 2 Ft. Lewis.

Northern Colorado cannot reach 7 Div 1 wins either.

The SUU @ Montana State game will be a challenge, for sure! But I think they're up to it. Edited it so that Montana State and NoCo are out of the 7 win club.

[BEAR]

Great read on the SLC:

I'll add this. IF UCA wins this weekend at home against SFA they will have Nicholls after that. That will put their record at 7-3 with SHSU left. Beat SHSU and that Samford loss is nullified. That leaves a loss at Oklahoma State (expected) and a 4th quarter bad snap momentum killer against McNeese. Not a bad resume. But I'm going with a loss to SHSU and a 7-4 record optimistically.

[UNDColorado]

The SUU @ Montana State game will be a challenge, for sure! But I think they're up to it. Edited it so that Montana State and NoCo are out of the 7 win club.

NAU would also need to win their last three to get to 7 D1 wins as they have a D2 win on their schedule as well.

[ming01]

I thought a D2 win counted now? Obviously, a DI win would be better.

[UNDColorado]

I thought a D2 win counted now? Obviously, a DI win would be better.
They do but not as heavy as a D1 win.


Basically if UND wins last two and finishes 7-4 with a FBS win, I would think that would be a stronger argument than a 7-4 team with a D2 win. Ideally NAU would want to win out to be 8-3 so that D2 win doesn't hurt them.

[Mayville Bison]

Good analysis. The breakdown by conferences was pretty good and helped me with some of the east coast conferences I don't follow too closely.

I don't think the bracket will look anything like what you have, but I think most of the teams selected are right.

[dbackjon]

They do but not as heavy as a D1 win.


Basically if UND wins last two and finishes 7-4 with a FBS win, I would think that would be a stronger argument than a 7-4 team with a D2 win. Ideally NAU would want to win out to be 8-3 so that D2 win doesn't hurt them.

While I think NAU will finish 6-5, if they are 7-4, which would mean either a road win over SUU or EWU, they'd be heavily considered. They would have losses to a FBS school, Montana (road), EWU/SUU (road) and UC-Davis (road) with two FCS road wins (SFA and EWU/SUU)

[UNDColorado]

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if NAU won out to go 8-3...that young QB seems to be a player. You got a good one!

Heck, who really knows what the committee would do if both NAU and UND ended at 7-4...coin flip?

[Redbirdgrad]

Thanks for the effort you've put into this. Way more effort and time than I have on my hands :)

Please let your Coastal Carolina to ISU projection come true. Please....

[aceinthehole]

Thanks, fixed. Man, anyone could take the NEC.

NEC gets a lot clearer after this week's games, but I'm expecting the AQ team to win out from here. As of today, Bryant has the inside track and here are some NEC AQ scenarios:

If Bryant, Duquesne, and CCSU all win out (5-1) in NEC play - because they would have all lost to each other - it comes down to Sargin, which has Bryant the highest ranked of the 3 teams. Bryant also gets the AQ if they wins out and CCSU loses 1 of their last 2 games (vs. SFU, at Wagner), as they hold the tiebreaker over the Dukes.

Duquesne will get the AQ if they can win out (at SHU, vs. SFU) and Bryant loses at least 1 more game (at Wagner, vs. SHU, at RMU). They hold the tiebreaker over Central.

CCSU gets the AQ if they win out (vs. SFU, at Wagner) and Duquesne drops just 1 more game (at SHU, vs. SFU), because the Blue Devils hold the tiebreaker over Bryant.

Saint Francis must win out and needs Bryant to lose 1 more game (at Wagner, vs. SHU, at RMU).

[dbackjon]

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if NAU won out to go 8-3...that young QB seems to be a player. You got a good one!

Heck, who really knows what the committee would do if both NAU and UND ended at 7-4...coin flip?

He's great at home. Still learning the ropes on the road.

[MTfan4life]

I have JSU at 10-1, but I don't think their SOS matches up with the MVFC winner, whomever that is.

Last season New Hampshire had one win over a playoff team, while NDSU had 3 and also an FBS win. We all know who got the #1 seed. Do you really think SOS is looked into that heavily where it would drop JSU down to 6 even though they wouldn't have lost an FCS game?

[centennial]

Last season New Hampshire had one win over a playoff team, while NDSU had 3 and also an FBS win. We all know who got the #1 seed. Do you really think SOS is looked into that heavily where it would drop JSU down to 6 even though they wouldn't have lost an FCS game?
This. It's all politics folks. Otherwise we would be looking at 6-7 MVFC teams in the playoffs.

[jacksfan29]

I lay odds if NDSU gets a seed and SDSU does not that we will be going to Fargo again. They don't care that it has happened in the past, they will do it again. If UND gets in, minus a stadium we will be in Grand Forks for the 1st round and go back up north to Fargo for the 2nd. Bank on it.


SDSU has been routed through Fargo in years past and the Nodoaks played the Bison in the FargoDome already this year. Don't think they'll set them up again.

NDSU is interesting. If the win, I could see them as the No. 1 seed. Lose, and they definitely won't be seeded.

[centennial]

I lay odds if NDSU gets a seed and SDSU does not that we will be going to Fargo again. They don't care that it has happened in the past, they will do it again. If UND gets in, minus a stadium we will be in Grand Forks for the 1st round and go back up north to Fargo for the 2nd. Bank on it.
Please no SDSU second time around, Steig gets serious.

[Nodak78]

I lay odds if NDSU gets a seed and SDSU does not that we will be going to Fargo again. They don't care that it has happened in the past, they will do it again. If UND gets in, minus a stadium we will be in Grand Forks for the 1st round and go back up north to Fargo for the 2nd. Bank on it.

I like this. thank the Lord that we have a bye week to heal up.

[NY Crusader 2010]

This. It's all politics folks. Otherwise we would be looking at 6-7 MVFC teams in the playoffs.

Nine out of the ten MVFC teams would win the Patriot League this year.

[Thumper 76]

Please no SDSU second time around, Steig gets serious.

xlolx that's funny right there

[centennial]

Nine out of the ten MVFC teams would win the Patriot League this year.
It's funny because it's true?

[Big_Fan]

I have JSU at 10-1, but I don't think their SOS matches up with the MVFC winner, whomever that is.

It still makes no sense... unseeded @ 10-1, with 2x ranked wins - maybe 3 or 4 by the end of the season, depending on what happens with UTM, EIU, and the polls.

...yet you have EWU with a seed. Was it the riveting come-from-behind win over Weber State that did it, or the 21 point 4th quarter to save the game against Sac State?

Don't get me wrong, I don't think EWU is a terrible team, but I don't see them as deserving a seed. They don't have a win over a single team with a winning record, and a loss to a 4-4 MVFC team. I would love for us to get to play them this season. It would be great to see them travel to Jacksonville in week 3.

Projections are fun, but if JSU wins out and continues to look like we did against EKU, we will be the #1 seed... no worse than #2.

[dgtw]

I have JSU at 10-1, but I don't think their SOS matches up with the MVFC winner, whomever that is.

So you seed them behind a team they beat on the road?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tribefan40]

A 10-1 CAA champ is a top 2 seed, no question.

If w&m wins out, they're 9-2 with a top 3 or 4 seed, ur most likely at 7 or 8.

Also no chance w&m would travel round one. None.

[Thumper 76]

A 10-1 CAA champ is a top 2 seed, no question.

If w&m wins out, they're 9-2 with a top 3 or 4 seed, ur most likely at 7 or 8.

Also no chance w&m would travel round one. None.

Unless JSU and Ill St win out, then it's a question.

[tribefan40]

Unless JSU and Ill St win out, then it's a question.

Not for the committee. It's honestly not a homer thing, just haven't ever seen anything from the committee to make me think otherwise. CAA/East Coast bias alive and well.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

All 3 would have a compelling case but it would probably come down to who the NCAA thought they could get more money from. Richmond has the toughest road of the 3 over the final 3 Saturdays.

[WTFCollegefootballfan]

Do you think attendance factors into the 1 through 8 seeding?

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Do you think attendance factors into the 1 through 8 seeding?

Not necessarily. Could it make a difference between 2 teams vying for 2/3 with similar resume? Sure.

[WTFCollegefootballfan]

Not necessarily. Could it make a difference between 2 teams vying for 2/3 with similar resume? Sure.



Wouldn't the NCAA rather have the number 1 and 2 seeds at schools that have great attendance(around 20,000) than schools that will only get 7 to 10 thousand? I saying this if teams records are close.

[tribefan40]

Wouldn't the NCAA rather have the number 1 and 2 seeds at schools that have great attendance(around 20,000) than schools that will only get 7 to 10 thousand? I saying this if teams records are close.

Others may disagree, but this hasn't seemed to be the case historically. Record, conference, and to a lesser extent resume have always seemed to be primary factors

[mamberso]

Nice work. But if JSU wins out, they will be a #1 or #2...I'm quite sure. At the very least, they would not be behind Chattanooga; a team they beat on the road.

[Big_Fan]

Nice work. But if JSU wins out, they will be a #1 or #2...I'm quite sure. At the very least, they would not be behind Chattanooga; a team they beat on the road.


Yeah... kind of silly to say that the consensus #1 team, whose only loss was in overtime to an SEC traditional power, would be a 6 seed - behind a team they beat on the road.

People can say what they want about Auburn not being that good, but from a talent and depth aspect, they should monkey-stomp just about any FCS team. There is a reason they were picked to win the SEC, and were ranked in the top 10 when we played them. We may have contributed to their tailspin in much the same way that Ole Miss collapsed after the loss to us. People forget that Ole Miss was a 9 win team the previous season, beat Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl to end the season, and returned a ton of people. The 2010 Gamecocks had the talent to win it all, and the coaching to lose all of them.

This team has a boatload of talent, and Jack Crowe is nowhere near the sidelines. Nobody knows how good John Grass is or isn't... so far so good, but the playoffs will tell the real tale.

[McNeese75]

No biggie for your article but the McNeese vs Sam Houston game is a home game for the Pokes this Saturday.