BEAR
November 1st, 2015, 01:52 PM
State of the Southland November 1, 2015
Standings:
McNeese 7-0
Sam Houston 5-1
UCA 5-1
……teams below this line are out of conference title contention………
Lamar 3-3
SLU 3-3
UIW 3-3
SFA 3-3
NWST 2-4
ACU 2-5
Nicholls 1-5
HBU 0-6
Remaining schedules for contenders:
McNeese- SHSU at home, Lamar on road
SHSU- McNeese on road, NWST at home, UCA on road
UCA- SFA at home, Nicholls on road, SHSU at home
Scenarios for each:
McNeese: McNeese has a tough game ahead at home vs. SHSU. Win that and you have at least a share of the conference. Win the next at Lamar and its outright.
SHSU- Tough road game at McNeese. Lose that game and you fall to 3rd in conference pending a UCA win at home against SFA. After a NWST game you go back on the road to UCA.
UCA- SFA visits Conway and could play spoiler to UCA’s possible chances of sharing a conference title. Next is a winnable game at Nicholls followed by yet another top team in SHSU visiting Conway.
Who has the easiest path left? McNeese. They’ve already taken care of UCA so the only team standing in their way is SHSU and its played in The Hole. Win that and the banners fly.
Co-champs? It’s possible! If McNeese loses to Sam Houston and Sam Houston loses to UCA and UCA wins out that will put McNeese 8-1 and UCA 8-1. (A scenario this Bear fan is hoping for.)
Who would get the autobid? UCA. (unless I mistunderstand in this case and the head to head determines it.) UCA hasn’t been to the playoffs the longest of the three teams and would have the same conference record as McNeese.
Likely conference standings after this week: (I.M.O.)
McNeese 7-1 (Could be 8-0 also )
Sam 6-1 ( Could be 5-2 also)
UCA 6-1 (could be 5-2 also )
Here’s the issues:
McNeese has a really good defense but a below average offense but is able to score and get turnovers at critical times. Will their luck run out this week against an offense that is rolling in SHSU?
SHSU has a great offense and a really good defense BUT the defense McNeese will bring might be enough to slow down the Kats. Hard to judge the Bearkats when two of their toughest opponents will happen this week and the last week of the season.
UCA has a really good defense and an offense that resembles a MASH unit but are able to pull off the big plays when needed. SFA can come to conway and win. No fan is doubting that. But get past the Lumberjacks and you get Nicholls.
Matchup of the week:
Sam Houston at McNeese.
Let’s look at how these teams compare conference only stats:
Characteristic
McNeese
Sam Houston
Points per game:
31
48
Scoring Defense:
12
21
Total YPG:
368
533
Total defense YPG:
305
329
Rushing YPG:
245
208
Rushing Defense YPG allowed:
63
196
Passing YPG:
160
288
Passing Defense YPG:
242
133
Sacks gotten/given up
24/8
14/6
Prediction: I’m going with Sam Houston pulling off the upset because of their passing game coming up big. I don’t forsee McNeese letting them run on them so they will have to go through the air to get points. Will the Bearkats O-line be enough to stop the McNeese defense and allow the QB to get off good passes or will McNeese wear down that O-line enough to disrupt their offense? We’ll see.
Score: SHSU 28 McNeese 21
Final thoughts:
McNeese seems to be winning but only because that defense is giving them opportunities on short fields. If the offense gets going and the defense stays the same McNeese will be a tough out for any playoff team.
Sam Houston has a brilliant offense that is winning games for them. Surely a playoff bound team unless they crumble the last 3 weeks and I don’t see that happening.
UCA is too beat up. Both starting QBs are fighting shoulder injuries and passing the ball upfield is a treat rarely taken so the run game has to step up to eat up the clock. Nothing but battles left for the Bears. However UCA should be considered for most polls (maybe not top 25) this week.
Standings:
McNeese 7-0
Sam Houston 5-1
UCA 5-1
……teams below this line are out of conference title contention………
Lamar 3-3
SLU 3-3
UIW 3-3
SFA 3-3
NWST 2-4
ACU 2-5
Nicholls 1-5
HBU 0-6
Remaining schedules for contenders:
McNeese- SHSU at home, Lamar on road
SHSU- McNeese on road, NWST at home, UCA on road
UCA- SFA at home, Nicholls on road, SHSU at home
Scenarios for each:
McNeese: McNeese has a tough game ahead at home vs. SHSU. Win that and you have at least a share of the conference. Win the next at Lamar and its outright.
SHSU- Tough road game at McNeese. Lose that game and you fall to 3rd in conference pending a UCA win at home against SFA. After a NWST game you go back on the road to UCA.
UCA- SFA visits Conway and could play spoiler to UCA’s possible chances of sharing a conference title. Next is a winnable game at Nicholls followed by yet another top team in SHSU visiting Conway.
Who has the easiest path left? McNeese. They’ve already taken care of UCA so the only team standing in their way is SHSU and its played in The Hole. Win that and the banners fly.
Co-champs? It’s possible! If McNeese loses to Sam Houston and Sam Houston loses to UCA and UCA wins out that will put McNeese 8-1 and UCA 8-1. (A scenario this Bear fan is hoping for.)
Who would get the autobid? UCA. (unless I mistunderstand in this case and the head to head determines it.) UCA hasn’t been to the playoffs the longest of the three teams and would have the same conference record as McNeese.
Likely conference standings after this week: (I.M.O.)
McNeese 7-1 (Could be 8-0 also )
Sam 6-1 ( Could be 5-2 also)
UCA 6-1 (could be 5-2 also )
Here’s the issues:
McNeese has a really good defense but a below average offense but is able to score and get turnovers at critical times. Will their luck run out this week against an offense that is rolling in SHSU?
SHSU has a great offense and a really good defense BUT the defense McNeese will bring might be enough to slow down the Kats. Hard to judge the Bearkats when two of their toughest opponents will happen this week and the last week of the season.
UCA has a really good defense and an offense that resembles a MASH unit but are able to pull off the big plays when needed. SFA can come to conway and win. No fan is doubting that. But get past the Lumberjacks and you get Nicholls.
Matchup of the week:
Sam Houston at McNeese.
Let’s look at how these teams compare conference only stats:
Characteristic
McNeese
Sam Houston
Points per game:
31
48
Scoring Defense:
12
21
Total YPG:
368
533
Total defense YPG:
305
329
Rushing YPG:
245
208
Rushing Defense YPG allowed:
63
196
Passing YPG:
160
288
Passing Defense YPG:
242
133
Sacks gotten/given up
24/8
14/6
Prediction: I’m going with Sam Houston pulling off the upset because of their passing game coming up big. I don’t forsee McNeese letting them run on them so they will have to go through the air to get points. Will the Bearkats O-line be enough to stop the McNeese defense and allow the QB to get off good passes or will McNeese wear down that O-line enough to disrupt their offense? We’ll see.
Score: SHSU 28 McNeese 21
Final thoughts:
McNeese seems to be winning but only because that defense is giving them opportunities on short fields. If the offense gets going and the defense stays the same McNeese will be a tough out for any playoff team.
Sam Houston has a brilliant offense that is winning games for them. Surely a playoff bound team unless they crumble the last 3 weeks and I don’t see that happening.
UCA is too beat up. Both starting QBs are fighting shoulder injuries and passing the ball upfield is a treat rarely taken so the run game has to step up to eat up the clock. Nothing but battles left for the Bears. However UCA should be considered for most polls (maybe not top 25) this week.