Most Overrated/Underrated Teams Of The AGS Era

[superman7515]

So I took a look back at all of the Top 25 pre-season polls and compared them to the final poll each year to find out what teams are the most overrated by AGS voters and the most underrated by AGS voters year after year in a comparison of where they begin and end in the polls. Here ya go...

Overrated (in order by most overrated teams first):
1) Northern Iowa
2) Delaware
3) McNeese State
4) James Madison
5) Furman
6) Montana
7) Massachusetts
8) Cal Poly
9) Elon
10) Montana State

#11 is a tie between Northwestern State and Southeast Missouri State if you want to ignore UMass now.


Underrated (in order by most underrated teams first):
1) Harvard
2) Sam Houston State
3) Coastal Carolina
4) South Carolina State
5) Texas State
6) Old Dominion
7) Penn
8) Jacksonville State
9) Illinois State
10) Bethune-Cookman

If you want to ignore Texas State & Old Dominion, they would be replaced by #11 Eastern Kentucky and a 3-way tie at #12 with South Dakota State, Fordham, and Eastern Washington.


Discuss...

[ElCid]

So I took a look back at all of the Top 25 pre-season polls and compared them to the final poll each year to find out what teams are the most overrated by AGS voters and the most underrated by AGS voters year after year in a comparison of where they begin and end in the polls. Here ya go...

Overrated (in order by most overrated teams first):
1) Northern Iowa
2) Delaware
3) McNeese State
4) James Madison
5) Furman (sucks)
6) Montana
7) Massachusetts
8) Cal Poly
9) Elon
10) Montana State

#11 is a tie between Northwestern State and Southeast Missouri State if you want to ignore UMass now.


Underrated (in order by most underrated teams first):
1) Harvard
2) Sam Houston State
3) Coastal Carolina
4) South Carolina State
5) Texas State
6) Old Dominion
7) Penn
8) Jacksonville State
9) Illinois State
10) Bethune-Cookman

If you want to ignore Texas State & Old Dominion, they would be replaced by #11 Eastern Kentucky and a 3-way tie at #12 with South Dakota State, Fordham, and Eastern Washington.


Discuss...

FIFY, before Citdog did.

[bkrownd]

You gotta be worth noticing to get "overrated"...just say'n...

[PAllen]

Preseason polls are worthless. Heck, anything before week 5 is just a wild guess.

[OL FU]

I don't think the overrated teams are a big surprise. With the exception of Elonxeyebrowx you have historically strong programs that are going to be given more credit pre-season than teams that lack the history.

Harvard leading the underrated is not a surprise either. They start out low because everyone knows that don't play a very difficult schedule and find it difficult to compare them to the rest of FCS and as they go through their schedule with minimal losses they rise in the polls

[superman7515]

You gotta be worth noticing to get "overrated"...just say'n...

That's kind of my point. We, collectively, continue to overvalue the same teams season after season at the beginning of the year, while ignoring teams that prove more often than not we aren't giving them the consideration they deserve. Basically allowing UNI, Delaware, and McNeese (they were the most overrated by a wide margin) to get by on name recognition while continuing to look down on schools like Coastal Carolina, SC State, and Jacksonville State because they aren't from one of the perceived "power" conferences. So these overrated teams we think are worth noticing, more often than not, aren't worth as much as we assume.


Preseason polls are worthless. Heck, anything before week 5 is just a wild guess.

That's true, but if you want preseason polls to be better, you have to recognize trends and work to remove biases. Just ignoring it and chalking it up to "that's how they all are" sounds like the arguments on the Poli board. Haha

[Cocky]

If we could win more playoff games our value would increase.

[Mattymc727]

Its easy to under-rate Harvard because they always finish un-defeated or close to it, yet their SOS is weaker. Its rare to consider an Ivy league school in the top 25 to start the year because of their SOS record, yet at the end of the year you almost have to stick a 10-1, 9-1, 8-2 Harvard in the top 25.

The over-rated schools are more interesting. Its either a school that consistently makes the playoffs but bounces out early (Surprised UNH wasnt in there), or a school like Delaware that makes/wins the title game or goes 4-7.

[McNeese72]

I keep telling you guys, that McNeese is always overated but you don't listen. Then I get accused of sandbagging. :)

[MR. CHICKEN]

I keep telling you guys, that McNeese is always overated but you don't listen. Then I get accused of sandbagging. :)

......PACK SAND..........COWPUNCHER.......................... ........WANTED....WR'S/QB'S......BUNNY RANCH EMPLOYEES............FIRE BRAWK!

[kalm]

That's kind of my point. We, collectively, continue to overvalue the same teams season after season at the beginning of the year, while ignoring teams that prove more often than not we aren't giving them the consideration they deserve. Basically allowing UNI, Delaware, and McNeese (they were the most overrated by a wide margin) to get by on name recognition while continuing to look down on schools like Coastal Carolina, SC State, and Jacksonville State because they aren't from one of the perceived "power" conferences. So these overrated teams we think are worth noticing, more often than not, aren't worth as much as we assume.



That's true, but if you want preseason polls to be better, you have to recognize trends and work to remove biases. Just ignoring it and chalking it up to "that's how they all are" sounds like the arguments on the Poli board. Haha

See Cocky's post below.

I started ranking JSU and Coastal higher after they won a couple of playoff games. The same goes for Fordham and EIU a couple years back after I had a chance to watch them live and see them win against better competition. They actually looked like they belong in the playoffs. As for SCSU, not until the MEAC shows some serious improvement.

Part of the problem is OOC schedules remaining regional as well as first round playoff games. What's the record of the Big South and MEAC when they are not playing each other or feasting on a down Southern?

That's why I love seeing Montana play Liberty (feather in the cap to the Big South), Samford playing CAU, SIU and Liberty.

[UNH Fanboi]

Wow Superman, thanks! I was actually thinking of making a request for someone to do this exact analysis at the beginning of the season. Very interesting!

[AshevilleApp2]

See Cocky's post below.

I started ranking JSU and Coastal higher after they won a couple of playoff games. The same goes for Fordham and EIU a couple years back after I had a chance to watch them live and see them win against better competition. They actually looked like they belong in the playoffs. As for SCSU, not until the MEAC shows some serious improvement.

Part of the problem is OOC schedules remaining regional as well as first round playoff games. What's the record of the Big South and MEAC when they are not playing each other or feasting on a down Southern?

That's why I love seeing Montana play Liberty (feather in the cap to the Big South), Samford playing CAU, SIU and Liberty.

I tend to agree. But I also remember that in 2008 and 2009, SCSU had App on the ropes in Boone during the playoffs. Not a good team to underestimate.

[RabidRabbit]

SDSU suffers being in same conference and regionalized with NDSU. As a D-1 program, SDSU has been wildly successful relative to the D2 era. But as long as look lumped into "the Dakotas", it's tough to look past the 10 championships of program up north.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Illinois St. and EWU are probably the biggest underrated of that bunch IMO. Final rankings allow for teams from the lesser conferences to fight in the playoffs, but as Cocky mentions, you still need to win playoff games to get the national respect. The teams listed as underrated are mostly from non-power FCS conferences, and as such have not fared as well in the playoffs (Coastal Carolina finally broke through recently), but they do well enough within their conferences to rack up wins and get higher rankings as the others like UNI, Delaware, JMU, Furman etc. tend to beat up on each other in their conferences.

The bias is that at the end of the day, voters are not expecting those teams to challenge for the NC and thus get a lower ranking, perhaps unfairly. If these teams start winning playoff games, the tables will turn. The Overrated teams need to actually meet expectations and win more in the post season as well to match the pre-season hype.

Ivy League teams - they are victims of scheduling and perhaps some voters not including them due to their lack of participation in the FCS playoffs. They are outliers and not necessarily underrated by fans so much as by the ranking system. We'd all love to see how Harvard would do vs. a Montana, NDSU or JMU team in the post season.

[BisonBacker]

SDSU suffers being in same conference and regionalized with NDSU. As a D-1 program, SDSU has been wildly successful relative to the D2 era. But as long as look lumped into "the Dakotas", it's tough to look past the 10 championships of program up north.

Uhmm that would be 12 championships xsmiley_wix

[MR. CHICKEN]

Illinois St. and EWU are probably the biggest underrated of that bunch IMO. Final rankings allow for teams from the lesser conferences to fight in the playoffs, but as Cocky mentions, you still need to win playoff games to get the national respect. The teams listed as underrated are mostly from non-power FCS conferences, and as such have not fared as well in the playoffs (Coastal Carolina finally broke through recently), but they do well enough within their conferences to rack up wins and get higher rankings as the others like UNI, Delaware, JMU, Furman etc. tend to beat up on each other in their conferences.

The bias is that at the end of the day, voters are not expecting those teams to challenge for the NC and thus get a lower ranking, perhaps unfairly. If these teams start winning playoff games, the tables will turn. The Overrated teams need to actually meet expectations and win more in the post season as well to match the pre-season hype.

Ivy League teams - they are victims of scheduling and perhaps some voters not including them due to their lack of participation in the FCS playoffs. They are outliers and not necessarily underrated by fans so much as by the ranking system. We'd all love to see how Harvard would do vs. a Montana, NDSU or JMU team in the post season.

.....DELAWARE HAS WON...LOTTAH PLAYOFF GAMES......AH THINK OURAH OVER-RATIN'....COMES...IN PRESEASON/EARLY WEEKS UH POLLS....BASED SOLELY ON REP....WHEN WE CLEARLY....AREN'T WORTHY.....WE PLAY OURAH-SELVES OUTTAH POLLS.....PRETTY QUICK.......BUT REP...GOT US IN DUH DOOR...................WANTED....WR'S/QB'S..............FIRE BRAWK!

[Ivytalk]

Ivy League teams - they are victims of scheduling and perhaps some voters not including them due to their lack of participation in the FCS playoffs. They are outliers and not necessarily underrated by fans so much as by the ranking system. We'd all love to see how Harvard would do vs. a Montana, NDSU or JMU team in the post season.

Well put. I wouldn't mind a post-season road trip to any of those places! Not likely to happen in my lifetime, though.

[bulldog10jw]

Well put. I wouldn't mind a post-season road trip to any of those places! Not likely to happen in my lifetime, though.

I would be happy with an 11th game.........first things first.

[BisonFan02]

Lehigh is too high.

[superman7515]

Lehigh is too high.
#46 on the underrated list; tied with Maine, Stony Brook, and Western Illinois.

[Ivytalk]

I would be happy with an 11th game.........first things first.

See above!:D

[PantherRob82]

I wonder how many Top 25 teams contact the Ivies to schedule.

[bulldog10jw]

See above!:D

How about our kids' lifetimes? xchinscratchx

[BisonFan02]

#46 on the underrated list; tied with Maine, Stony Brook, and Western Illinois.

Clearly too high of a number....where does that put them on the "overrated" list? :D

[Catsfan90]

Preseason polls are worthless. Heck, anything before week 5 is just a wild guess.
And even look at this year's poll. Who would have thought?

[FormerPokeCenter]

I'm not sure Delaware belongs on that list. They've got a Natty, no?

Clearly UNI and McNeese are, and should be, at the top of the overrated list...

[superman7515]

The list is based purely on the numbers. While Delaware has a national championship, it was pre-AGS era (literally the year before the poll started), and more often than not, Delaware has started high and dropped with 2007 and 2010 being the only years they started lower and rose up the standings, which improved the numbers a bit.

UNI always starts high and just about always falls, with only 2005 really helping their numbers when they started #10 and ended at #2, but everything else was either negligible or falling.

McNeese only had 2013 when they went from unranked to 14th, the rest of the time, Doc isn't sandbagging, haha.

[Loyl2u]

The list is based purely on the numbers. While Delaware has a national championship, it was pre-AGS era (literally the year before the poll started), and more often than not, Delaware has started high and dropped with 2007 and 2010 being the only years they started lower and rose up the standings, which improved the numbers a bit.

UNI always starts high and just about always falls, with only 2005 really helping their numbers when they started #10 and ended at #2, but everything else was either negligible or falling.

McNeese only had 2013 when they went from unranked to 14th, the rest of the time, Doc isn't sandbagging, haha.

It would interesting to see team's playoff records with overrated being losses at home and underrated being wins on the road.

[cardiaccowboy]

Finally a list McNeese should be #1 on. All I want for Christmas is a playoff win.

[Smitty]

I am going to guess that Western was only listed twice on the list, and probably for overrated.

[DFW HOYA]

Much is made about Harvard's strength of schedule but it's tempered by three factors:

1. It's a non-counter for I-A games
2. The season starts in week 3, limiting opponents who are already transitioning into conference play
3. Lack of numerous opponents in the region outside the PL (UNH, Maine, URI)

I can't see any scenario why Harvard would want to travel to Missoula or Carbondale or Huntsville when they don't have to. And it's not like their chances of hosting a playoff game would be in jeopardy, either.

[OL FU]

Much is made about Harvard's strength of schedule but it's tempered by three factors:

1. It's a non-counter for I-A games
2. The season starts in week 3, limiting opponents who are already transitioning into conference play
3. Lack of numerous opponents in the region outside the PL (UNH, Maine, URI)

I can't see any scenario why Harvard would want to travel to Missoula or Carbondale or Huntsville when they don't have to. And it's not like their chances of hosting a playoff game would be in jeopardy, either.

I think there are many good reasons for their schedule but good reasons don't change the difficulty that people having in comparing them to other FCS schools.

[Cocky]

Ivys are national schools who should expose their brand to all parts of the country. Minus Harvard and Yale the others are unknown to most in our part of the country. Cornell with its great Vet school would appeal to rural Southerners as an example.

I do understand getting quality applicants isnt an issue.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

The biggest surprise to see there is Texas State. No one probably saw them coming in 2005, but I'm sure they were also ranked preseason in 2006 and they did nothing that year.

[ngineer]

Ivys are national schools who should expose their brand to all parts of the country. Minus Harvard and Yale the others are unknown to most in our part of the country. Cornell with its great Vet school would appeal to rural Southerners as an example.

I do understand getting quality applicants isnt an issue.

Princeton?...and Penn traditionally gets confused with Penn State by those outside of the northeast.

[Mr. C]

It is all Superman's fault for Delaware being overrated ... Maybe Mr. Chicken deserves some fault as well. :D

P.S. Great job on this, like so many other of your well-researched posts.

[Cocky]

Princeton?...and Penn traditionally gets confused with Penn State by those outside of the northeast.
Other than your 4 yr or above educated people, Princeton is not well known. And still probably few of those understand Princetons rank in the national university system.

If you dont play big time football, Southerners consider you inferior in everything.

[NY Crusader 2010]

Other than your 4 yr or above educated people, Princeton is not well known. And still probably few of those understand Princetons rank in the national university system.

If you dont play big time football, Southerners consider you inferior in everything.

But is playing a football game in Missoula or Carbondale going to gain the Ivy League brand recognition? If Ivy League schools aren't household names in a given location (you mention the South), North Dakota State, Montana, Illinois State, McNeese State and James Madison aren't going to be either....

Doubt there are many places where people have heard of Northern Iowa but not Princeton. One look at an Ivy League roster would tell you that these schools don't need much help recruiting nationally.

[Cocky]

...

One look at an Ivy League roster would tell you that these schools don't need much help recruiting nationally.

I mentioned this above.

Not saying any others are more known but Ivys are national schools while Northern Iowa, Montana, ISUr and other are not. I just believe the Ivys could gain some more useful brand awareness if their schedules were national.

[ElCid]

Princeton?...and Penn traditionally gets confused with Penn State by those outside of the northeast.

That is hilarious. You nailed it. When I told someone in my office (a Georgia Tech Grad) that Penn had beaten Nova he said "why wouldn't Penn Sate beat them." I was dumbfounded. Said he did not know anything about Penn.

[mvemjsunpx]

I think there are many good reasons for their schedule but good reasons don't change the difficulty that people having in comparing them to other FCS schools.

is it really more difficult to judge than the Southland or SWAC, though? The SWAC has only played 6 FCS non-conference games (0-6) and the Southland, thanks to the new 9-game conference schedule, has only played 3 (0-3).

[PantherRob82]

People rank the SWAC?

[JMUNJ08]

That is hilarious. You nailed it. When I told someone in my office (a Georgia Tech Grad) that Penn had beaten Nova he said "why wouldn't Penn Sate beat them." I was dumbfounded. Said he did not know anything about Penn.

Give credit where its due. He knew then that Nova had a football program. People at Nova don't know that...

[mvemjsunpx]

People rank the SWAC?

Well, the TSN/STATS people often do (Grambling & Alcorn are both close).

[Cocky]

That is hilarious. You nailed it. When I told someone in my office (a Georgia Tech Grad) that Penn had beaten Nova he said "why wouldn't Penn Sate beat them." I was dumbfounded. Said he did not know anything about Penn.
Wouldnt be surprised if more people in the south knew more about Wharton than Penn. Would be real surprised if many knew Wharton was part of Penn.

Of course the law firms and companies looking for a MBA grad know of the schools.

[ngineer]

Give credit where its due. He knew then that Nova had a football program. People at Nova don't know that...

Sadly, that is so true.

[superman7515]

It would interesting to see team's playoff records with overrated being losses at home and underrated being wins on the road.

As long as the bid system is in place, I don't think that would be a very accurate measure. 2011 JMU didn't put in a bid and was sent on the road to Eastern Kentucky, but EKU was pretty much universally accepted as the underdog in that game. UMass and Western Illinois were both favored over Colgate, even with Colgate at home, in 2001. 2012 Georgia Southern "forgot" to place a bid for the second round and went on the road to Old Dominion, it was a good game, but Georgia Southern was the higher seed.

[ElCid]

Give credit where its due. He knew then that Nova had a football program. People at Nova don't know that...

xlolxxlolxActually he thought they were Div II until I corrected him.

It is hilarious talking to the bubbas in my office. In my immediate area, I have a Ga Tech fan, a Florida fan, a Tenn fan, numerous Georgia fans, an Alabama fan, a Kennesaw St fan, if you can believe that, a Montana fan (used to stationed at Malmstrom) and a Lieutenant who actually played for AF. Except for the FCS fans I have to repeatedly educate them of the Div I structure of FCS and FBS. None knew that Georgia Southern or App St were even FBS. They are in a world of their own.

[Kemo]

So wait a second. NDSU isn't on either the overrated or underrated list?!

Does that me what I think it means?...

<insert "Bison" for "Bears">


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ty0u4gqQNuI

[superman7515]

So wait a second. NDSU isn't on either the overrated or underrated list?!

They are tied with New Hampshire at #17 for most underrated. The reason:
2004 - Started unranked, ended #20 - underrated
2005 - Started #18, ended #23 - overrated
2006 - Started #12, ended #4 - underrated
2007 - Started #3, ended #6 - overrated
2008 - Started #4, ended unranked - overrated
2009 - Started unranked, ended unranked - accurate
2010 - Started unranked, ended #6 - underrated
2011 - Started #8, ended #1 - underrated
2012 - Started #1, ended #1 - accurate
2013 - Started #1, ended #1 - accurate
2014 - Started #2, ended #1 - underrated

Underrated 5 times, although several were very slim margins
Overrated 3 times, two slim margins and one huge oops that made up for all the slim margins of overrated
Accurate 3 times

[superman7515]

Guess I should just go ahead and post the full breakdown. If a team isn't on the list, they either A) have never been ranked in the preseason or postseason polls or B) managed to break even:

Overrated -
#1 Northern Iowa
#2 Delaware
#3 McNeese State
#4 James Madison
#5 Furman
#6 Montana
#7 Massachusetts
#8 Cal Poly
#9 Elon
#10 Montana State
#11 (t) Northwestern State
#11 (t) Southeast Missouri State
#11 (t) Western Kentucky
#14 Villanova
#15 (t) Southern Illinois
#15 (t) Wofford
#17 Youngstown State
#18 Chattanooga
#19 (t) Appalachian State
#19 (t) Northern Arizona
#19 (t) William & Mary
#22 (t) Central Arkansas
#22 (t) UC Davis
#24 (t) Portland State
#24 (t) The Citadel
#26 (t) Northeastern
#26 (t) Stephen F. Austin
#28 Northern Colorado
#29 Southern


Underrated -
#1 Harvard
#2 Sam Houston State
#3 Coastal Carolina
#4 South Carolina State
#5 Texas State
#6 (t) Illinois State
#6 (t) Jacksonville State
#6 (t) Old Dominion
#6 (t) Pennsylvania
#10 Bethune-Cookman
#11 Eastern Kentucky
#12 (t) Eastern Illinois
#12 (t) Eastern Washington
#12 (t) Fordham
#12 (t) South Dakota State
#16 Liberty
#17 (t) New Hampshire
#17 (t) North Dakota State
#19 (t) Brown
#19 (t) Hampton
#19 (t) Holy Cross
#19 (t) Princeton
#23 Nicholls State
#24 (t) Delaware State
#24 (t) Indiana State
#26 (t) Albany
#26 (t) Prairie View A&M
#26 (t) Richmond
#29 (t) Norfolk State
#29 (t) Samford
#29 (t) Southeastern Louisiana
#29 (t) Towson
#33 (t) Southern Utah
#33 (t) Wagner
#35 (t) Robert Morris
#35 (t) San Diego
#35 (t) Tennessee State
#35 (t) Tennessee-Martin
#35 (t) Weber State
#40 (t) Lafayette
#40 (t) Sacred Heart
#40 (t) Tennessee Tech
#40 (t) Yale
#44 Colgate
#45 (t) Alabama State
#45 (t) Dayton
#45 (t) Georgia Southern
#45 (t) Grambling State
#45 (t) Hofstra
#45 (t) Idaho State
#45 (t) Lehigh
#45 (t) Maine
#45 (t) Stony Brook
#45 (t) Western Illinois

[penguinpower]

This thread is based on individual and collective opinions. If you aren't #1 or#2 you are not necessarily overrated or underrated unless you've held that poll position.

[Nickels]

#2 Sam Houston State

We're so damn good at being 2nd best...

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

My 2$:


Overrated: UNI
Underrated: SHSU

[ElCid]

My 2cents:

Overrated: FBS
Underrated: FCS

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

My 2cents:

Overrated: FBS
Underrated: FCS


Kudos to you!!!

xthumbsupx

[PantherRob82]

This thread is based on individual and collective opinions. If you aren't #1 or#2 you are not necessarily overrated or underrated unless you've held that poll position.

It isn't based on individual opinions. It's only based on collective opinions. He explained what data he used and how he used it. It's just for fun.

[superman7515]

It isn't based on individual opinions. It's only based on collective opinions. He explained what data he used and how he used it. It's just for fun.

Yep, merely just going by where we all have placed teams before and after over the last 11 seasons. Just because a team was "overrated" doesn't mean they weren't a good team, if you start at #3 and end up #4 it's not like you sucked all season, and conversely when NDSU started #2 and ended #1 last season wasn't some sort of disrespect because they weren't #1 from the jump. Just a fun way to see how some teams *cough Delaware cough* are so wildly inconsisent, while others (Nicholls State) come out of nowhere one year, never to be heard of again.

[wmmii]

Guess you all need to rethink the overrated now UNI beat SDSU............

[Samalum'10]

We're so damn good at being 2nd best...
Shhhhhh... Our school might make another shirt about it

[PantherRob82]

Guess you all need to rethink the overrated now UNI beat SDSU............

Nothing to re-think. It's just an overall view of how AGS overrates and underrates teams over the years by using pre and post season polls

[Thumper 76]

Guess you all need to rethink the overrated now UNI beat SDSU............

Play enough good teams close like UNI has been eventually you will win one. There's a reason they are still ranked with the record they have. Unfortunately it was against my team.

But also, like Rob said, this list is a historical look at who traditionally gets too much cred before the season starts compared to their ranking at the end of the year. Not who is over or underrated this year.

[X-Factor]

Shhhhhh... Our school might make another shirt about it
Haha glad you guys can make jokes about that. Gotta question the marketer that came up with that one.

[Nickels]

Haha glad you guys can make jokes about that. Gotta question the marketer that came up with that one.
I believe that came from some retarded apparel licensee and not from the U itself.

Although they did post giant tacky banners on the front of Bowers that said "finalist" which IMO is much worse.

[MacThor]

You're comparing polls to polls (opinions) instead of to actual post-season results. What if certain schools (<cough>..MEAC...<cough>) are simply overrated in the final polls? We consistently see two teams from that conference ranked in the final poll when they haven't won a playoff game since 1999. Most years since I've been on AGS they haven't deserved any teams in the top 25.

[Katfan]

It would interesting to see team's playoff records with overrated being losses at home and underrated being wins on the road.
I think you would see the same thing. SHSU is the most underrated team in FCS playoff conferences

[WrenFGun]

Much is made about Harvard's strength of schedule but it's tempered by three factors:

1. It's a non-counter for I-A games
2. The season starts in week 3, limiting opponents who are already transitioning into conference play
3. Lack of numerous opponents in the region outside the PL (UNH, Maine, URI)

I can't see any scenario why Harvard would want to travel to Missoula or Carbondale or Huntsville when they don't have to. And it's not like their chances of hosting a playoff game would be in jeopardy, either.

UNH would literally love to play any of these Ivies. Dartmouth is done with us (despite beating us this year) -- Harvard is like an hour away up/down 95; no reason it shouldn't happen.

[Lehigh'98]

Lehigh is too high.

Back in the top 25 finally!!

[Daytripper]

I keep telling you guys, that McNeese is always overated but you don't listen. Then I get accused of sandbagging. :)

Oh, you're just sandbagging...xlolx

[Go...gate]

Other than your 4 yr or above educated people, Princeton is not well known. And still probably few of those understand Princetons rank in the national university system.

If you dont play big time football, Southerners consider you inferior in everything.

By almost every national measuring stick, Princeton is rated the #1 - #3 school in the United States and among the finest in the world.

And Princeton had "Big-Time" football long before many schools took up the game.

Not well known? Come on.

[Daytripper]

Would Cal Poly be considered overrated if their fullback wasn't hurt?

[FCSwatcher]

That's kind of my point. We, collectively, continue to overvalue the same teams season after season at the beginning of the year, while ignoring teams that prove more often than not we aren't giving them the consideration they deserve. Basically allowing UNI, Delaware, and McNeese (they were the most overrated by a wide margin) to get by on name recognition while continuing to look down on schools like Coastal Carolina, SC State, and Jacksonville State because they aren't from one of the perceived "power" conferences. So these overrated teams we think are worth noticing, more often than not, aren't worth as much as we assume.



That's true, but if you want preseason polls to be better, you have to recognize trends and work to remove biases. Just ignoring it and chalking it up to "that's how they all are" sounds like the arguments on the Poli board. Haha

Classic human bias


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Cocky]

By almost every national measuring stick, Princeton is rated the #1 - #3 school in the United States and among the finest in the world.

And Princeton had "Big-Time" football long before many schools took up the game.

Not well known? Come on.
In the south most football fans probably don't know much if anything about Princeton. Not saying it not a great school just most southerners only thing good football schools are good.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

How is Eastern Washington not on the overrated list?

Jesus man

[Bison56]

Would Cal Poly be considered overrated if their fullback wasn't hurt?

xpopcornx

[kalm]

How is Eastern Washington not on the overrated list?

Jesus man

According to Supe's reasearch, we're mostly under rated. It's science....that blinds you.

[McNeese72]

So I took a look back at all of the Top 25 pre-season polls and compared them to the final poll each year to find out what teams are the most overrated by AGS voters and the most underrated by AGS voters year after year in a comparison of where they begin and end in the polls. Here ya go...

Overrated (in order by most overrated teams first):
1) Northern Iowa
2) Delaware
3) McNeese State
4) James Madison
5) Furman
6) Montana
7) Massachusetts
8) Cal Poly
9) Elon
10) Montana State

#11 is a tie between Northwestern State and Southeast Missouri State if you want to ignore UMass now.




I'm offended!! We should definitely be No. 1 on this list. :)

Doc

[RootinFerDukes]

Could part of why teams are so overrated be the larger amount of MVFC, CAA, Big Sky and Southland fans on here?

[Katfan]

Could part of why teams are so overrated be the larger amount of MVFC, CAA, Big Sky and Southland fans on here?
That vote imply some bias! Nah that can't be it! ��

[PantherRob82]

Could part of why teams are so overrated be the larger amount of MVFC, CAA, Big Sky and Southland fans on here?

That doesn't explain Illinois State, Old Dominion or Sam Houston.

[BisonTru]

Since 2015 isn't included here's a look.



Rnk
Final AGS Poll
Total Points
First Place Votes
Previous Wk.
PS Rk

Diff


1
North Dakota State Bison
1600
64
2
1
1
0


2
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
1510

1
9
9
7


3
Richmond Spiders
1428

9
21
21
18


4
Northern Iowa Panthers
1386

10
10
10
6


5
Illinois State Redbirds
1332

4
2
2
-3


6
Sam Houston State Bearkats
1154

15
3
3
-3


7
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
1142

7
NR
25
18


8
Chattanooga Mocs
1103

11
6
6
-2


9
Portland State Vikings
1047

5
NR
25
16


10
McNeese State Cowboys
968

3
NR
25
15


11
The Citadel Bulldogs
871

14
NR
25
14


12
Montana Grizzlies
869

16
11
11
-1


13
Colgate Raiders
790

30
NR
25
12


14
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
786

8
16
16
2


15
James Madison Dukes
751

6
14
14
-1


16
William & Mary Tribe
639

12
NR
25
9


17
Southern Utah
621

13
NR
25
8


18
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
571

17
5
5
-13


19
Western Illinois Leathernecks
403

25
NR
25
6


20
Fordham Rams
263

18
23
23
3


21
Harvard Crimson
256

19
22
22
1


22
New Hampshire Wildcats
189

20
7
7
-15


23
North Dakota
183

22
NR
25
2


24
Eastern Illinois Panthers
166

21
24
24
0


25
Dartmouth Big Green
150

23
NR
25
0







Preseason AGS Poll

Final Rnk

Diff


1
North Dakota State Bison
2134
1
1
0


2
Illinois State Redbirds
1999
5
5
-3


3
Sam Houston State Bearkats
1863
6
6
-3


4
Villanova Wildcats
1795
NR
25
-21


5
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
1772
18
18
-13


6
Chattanooga Mocs
1625
8
8
-2


7
New Hampshire Wildcats
1577
22
22
-15


8
Eastern Washington Eagles
1455
NR
25
-17


9
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
1436
2
2
7


10
Northern Iowa Panthers
1306
4
4
6


11
Montana State Bobcats
1157
NR
25
-14


12
Montana Grizzlies
1041
12
12
0


13
Liberty Flames
975
NR
25
-12


14
James Madison Dukes
951
15
15
-1


15
Youngstown State Penguins
854
NR
25
-10


16
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
805
14
14
2


17
Southeastern Louisiana Lions
536
NR
25
-8


18
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
497
NR
25
-7


19
Indiana State Sycamores
442
NR
25
-6


20
Idaho State Bengals
421
NR
25
-5


21
Richmond Spiders
415
3
3
18


22
Harvard Crimson
362
21
21
1


23
Fordham Rams
356
20
20
3


24
Eastern Illinois Panthers
267
24
24
0


25
Cal Poly Mustangs
232
NR
25
0

[Nickels]

Oh look SHSU is the most underrated playoff team on AGS yet you cry babies whine non stop about our rankings week after week.

[PantherRob82]

Oh look SHSU is the most underrated playoff team on AGS yet you cry babies whine non stop about our rankings week after week.

Oh, look, they were overrated last year. ;) xlolx

[RootinFerDukes]

That doesn't explain Illinois State, Old Dominion or Sam Houston.

ODU was in the CAA for all of two or three seasons. They're an outlier.

[PantherRob82]

ODU was in the CAA for all of two or three seasons. They're an outlier.

Oh, so they were in the CAA? ;)

[Katfan]

Oh, look, they were overrated last year. ;) xlolx
We really were.

[Mayville Bison]

Bored, so I figured I'd take a shot at adding the past couple years. Not sure how Supe calculate Unranked (or 26-40) to in the poll or vice versa, but I basically said anything not in the top 25 was #26 (otherwise it would drastically over inflate one year wonders/slumps). Also took out non-FCS teams

Most overrated teams according to AGS voters
#1 Northern Iowa -68
#2 Montana -66
#3 Delaware -57
#4 McNeese St-48
#5 James Madison -38
#6(t) Furman -34
#6(t) Montana St -34
#8 Cal Poly -27
#9 Villlanova -25
#10 Elon -23

Most underrated teams according to AGS voters
#1 Harvard +35
#2 Sam Houston St +25
#3 New Hampshire +24
#4 Richmond +21
#5 Jacksonville St +20
#6 Penn +18
#7 Fordham +17
#8 Bethune-Cookman +16
#9(t) Samford +15
#9(t) Eastern Illinois +15

More than likely messed up somewhere. Overall, 29 teams have a negative movement, 61 have positive movement, and one (GSU) was at zero.

[Thumper 76]

Thanks for doing the work on this! Why did you stop at 9 for the underrated though?


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[Mayville Bison]

Thanks for doing the work on this! Why did you stop at 9 for the underrated though?


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Because 9 & 10 tied (Samford & EIU). Changed it now to make it easier

[BadlandsGrizFan]

Bull****...Montana should be ranked #1....you've underrated our overrated-ness

[GannonFan]

I'm sure someone else has said it, but a lot of the overrated-ness happens because teams finish one year very high in the rankings, and then in the next year, they automatically start high in the rankings even though a lot of the players are different. If you have teams that are successful, and have many successful years, but tend to be good one year, not so good the next, and then good again (rollercoaster type teams) then you get teams that are overrated. If we waited for the first 3-4 weeks to go by before we ranked teams then this would tend to go away.

[Thumper 76]

Because 9 & 10 tied (Samford & EIU). Changed it now to make it easier

Ahhh, gotcha.


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[UNIFanSince1983]

Finally a ranking where I don't think we are too high.

[Katfan]

Based on the list, to me anyway, its more of a reflection of teams moving up being underrated and teams moving down being overrated. With the exception of shsu and Jsu, which also reflects the bias of not being in the caa or MVFC.

[RootinFerDukes]

There's no way SHSU isn't #1 most overrated. I call foul play.

[uni88]

Based on the list, to me anyway, its more of a reflection of teams moving up being underrated and teams moving down being overrated. With the exception of shsu and Jsu, which also reflects the bias of not being in the caa or MVFC.
Or is being ranked as overrated a result of being in the meat grinder of the CAA or MVFC? They start out highly ranked and move down after losing games against tough opponents while many of the underrated teams play a weaker schedule and move up because they don't lose. It would be interesting to see the strength of schedule for each of the underrated and overrated teams.

If true, it also makes Richmond and New Hampshire's inclusion in the underrated list all the more impressive.

[Katfan]

There's no way SHSU isn't #1 most overrated. I call foul play.
The math says otherwise but I appreciate that you haven't been around since 2011 to know what you're talking about. You don't have to be best to be underrated but when most on here suggest you shouldn't be in the top ten and you consistently make it to the semis that means you were underrated. I think your team is the best at this point if I'm correct that will mean that all those that have ndsu have underrated your team. I know you beat the **** out of us last year and I think you beat us if we are healthy, but if you think it wouldn't have been more competitive with a healthy Briscoe you are a dumb****!!

[Katfan]

Or is being ranked as overrated a result of being in the meat grinder of the CAA or MVFC? They start out highly ranked and move down after losing games against tough opponents while many of the underrated teams play a weaker schedule and move up because they don't lose. It would be interesting to see the strength of schedule for each of the underrated and overrated teams.

If true, it also makes Richmond and New Hampshire's inclusion in the underrated list all the more impressive.
Doesn't matter because it's the rating after the playoffs sos has nothing to do with it. Think about it.

[Daytripper]

The math says otherwise but I appreciate that you haven't been around since 2011 to know what you're talking about. You don't have to be best to be underrated but when most on here suggest you shouldn't be in the top ten and you consistently make it to the semis that means you were underrated. I think your team is the best at this point if I'm correct that will mean that all those that have ndsu have underrated your team. I know you beat the **** out of us last year and I think you beat us if we are healthy, but if you think it wouldn't have been more competitive with a healthy Briscoe you are a dumb****!!

Just ignore these tools who feel the need to poison every thread with their SHSU hate. They have an unnatural obsession for us that is difficult to explain.

[RootinFerDukes]

Tongue in cheek humor is lost on the internet.

[uni88]

Doesn't matter because it's the rating after the playoffs sos has nothing to do with it. Think about it.How so? It's a comparison of preseason to postseason ranking? Teams that play a stronger schedule have greater odds of losing and moving down in the rankings while teams that play a weaker schedule are more likely to win more games and move up. It's not the only factor but it is definitely a factor that can be considered.

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[milleniumkat]

never been upset in the playoffs. Ratings have been accurate.

Disliking our program and fans is one thing, but we've only had a high seed one time. And we made it to the natty and lost a dog fight to NDSU. Since then, never rated higher than #5. Many road playoff wins vs higher seeds. Many home playoff wins vs lower seeds.

I get the "non-trust" factor of our big losses the last 3 years. But each time was to a higher seed at their place.

It just doesn't meet the criteria of what "overrated" actually means. People
that say shsu is overrated are using the term incorrectly. The proper assessment would be to say they we are not Elite. And i can agree with that.

[milleniumkat]

It's a simple number line analysis.
Rankings and seedings are simply points along an ascending number line.

The only time shsu has ever lost to a team occupying a point below its own along that number line was the 2011 natty to ndsu.

We have routinely defeated teams occupying greater points along that line which points to us actually being UNDERRATED a great portion of the time. Let that sink in for a moment...


However there are teams at the highest point of the number line, which have been assigned a greater value, that we have posed no threat to. But that does not meet the criteria of overrated. Not mathematician would consider a lesser value entity losing to a higher valued entity as overrated.

So as i have now shown, over the course of last 6 seasons, as a whole, shsu has been UNDERRATED due to the fact that we more often then not, end the season occupying a higher valued point along the number line than we began the season. Or at least within a reasonable range. And that's a fact.

You may keep your unreasonable hate, but to deny this fact is to just expose yourself as having an actual lack of logical understanding.

[Katfan]

Tongue in cheek humor is lost on the internet.
Sorry, it was much funnier this morning.

[Katfan]

never been upset in the playoffs. Ratings have been accurate.

Disliking our program and fans is one thing, but we've only had a high seed one time. And we made it to the natty and lost a dog fight to NDSU. Since then, never rated higher than #5. Many road playoff wins vs higher seeds. Many home playoff wins vs lower seeds.

I get the "non-trust" factor of our big losses the last 3 years. But each time was to a higher seed at their place.

It just doesn't meet the criteria of what "overrated" actually means. People
that say shsu is overrated are using the term incorrectly. The proper assessment would be to say they we are not Elite. And i can agree with that.
My point is if you go back to 2011, I would imagine we started unrated and ended 2 a team on the rise. Since then we've probably started and ended pretty close in our ratings. If the facts don't support this assumption, then never mind.

[milleniumkat]

My point is if you go back to 2011, I would imagine we started unrated and ended 2 a team on the rise. Since then we've probably started and ended pretty close in our ratings. If the facts don't support this assumption, then never mind.

agreed

[Mayville Bison]

My point is if you go back to 2011, I would imagine we started unrated and ended 2 a team on the rise. Since then we've probably started and ended pretty close in our ratings. If the facts don't support this assumption, then never mind.

Your big jumps in 2004 (+21), 2011 (+24), and 2014 (+15) are the main reason. The other big reason is you haven't had a season where you start really high and end unranked. UNI and Montana both have 2 seasons where they dropped 20 spots or more from beginning to end. SHSU's largest drop is from 14 to unranked (12 spots) and from 2 to 13 (11 spots).
2004 +21
2005 -12
2006 0
2007 -6
2008 0
2009 0
2010 0
2011 +24
2012 0
2013 -11
2014 +15
2015 -3
2016 -3

[milleniumkat]

Your big jumps in 2004 (+21), 2011 (+24), and 2014 (+15) are the main reason. The other big reason is you haven't had a season where you start really high and end unranked. UNI and Montana both have 2 seasons where they dropped 20 spots or more from beginning to end. SHSU's largest drop is from 14 to unranked (12 spots) and from 2 to 13 (11 spots).
2004 +21
2005 -12
2006 0
2007 -6
2008 0
2009 0
2010 0
2011 +24
2012 0
2013 -11
2014 +15
2015 -3
2016 -3

Great homework. Thank you for that.

If i was voting, and i'm not, i'd have to put Montana up there pretty high on the list for what you mentioned. They always seem to have a buzz to start the season but have more often than not fizzled slowly as the seasons go on.

[Catbooster]

Great homework. Thank you for that.

If i was voting, and i'm not, i'd have to put Montana up there pretty high on the list for what you mentioned. They always seem to have a buzz to start the season but have more often than not fizzled slowly as the seasons go on.
I guess you didn't read the OP or Mayville's update in post #88? Montana is #2 on the over-rated list in the update (#6 in the OP). And it's not a vote. It's a comparison of pre-season rankings to final rankings for each year.

[ElonFirefighter]

I don't think the overrated teams are a big surprise. With the exception of Elonxeyebrowx you have historically strong programs that are going to be given more credit pre-season than teams that lack the history.

Harvard leading the underrated is not a surprise either. They start out low because everyone knows that don't play a very difficult schedule and find it difficult to compare them to the rest of FCS and as they go through their schedule with minimal losses they rise in the polls

Elon's wasn' from a historical standpoint, it was back around 2009 we were ranked the whole season ended 9th and started the same. We had been ranked for 2 or 3 seasons. Thats when we fell apart. and dropped out week 7. We were given credit from recent history and consecutive weeks ranked.

[alvin.kmiec]

With the amount of hate for Sam Houston you would think Trump went to college here.


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[UNIFanSince1983]

Based on the list, to me anyway, its more of a reflection of teams moving up being underrated and teams moving down being overrated. With the exception of shsu and Jsu, which also reflects the bias of not being in the caa or MVFC.

Not quite sure exactly what you are getting at, but this is exactly what Supe was going for. If you move up from the preseason ranking you were underrated. You move down from preseason ranking you were overrated.

Not a tough concept to figure out.

[BadlandsGrizFan]

Great homework. Thank you for that.

If i was voting, and i'm not, i'd have to put Montana up there pretty high on the list for what you mentioned. They always seem to have a buzz to start the season but have more often than not fizzled slowly as the seasons go on.

Youre confused..youre thinking of Montana State

[BisonTru]

With the amount of hate for Sam Houston you would think Trump went to college here.


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You're only 44 posts in, so maybe you aren't aware. But there is a poli section in the lounge for these types of posts.

[McNeese75]

You're only 44 posts in, so maybe you aren't aware. But there is a poli section in the lounge for these types of posts.

xlolx Boy is there ever xthumbsupx

[milleniumkat]

I guess you didn't read the OP or Mayville's update in post #88? Montana is #2 on the over-rated list in the update (#6 in the OP). And it's not a vote. It's a comparison of pre-season rankings to final rankings for each year.

I was just giving my 2c. Yes i did read it.

[milleniumkat]

Youre confused..youre thinking of Montana State

Is there a difference? I kid. I kid.

[Catbooster]

Youre confused..youre thinking of Montana State
For once, a Griz fan who's not claiming they should be ranked higher than us on some list. xthumbsupx Wait...what's this ranking for again? xoopsx


I am surprised that UM is still getting votes in the AGS poll this year (and started the season ranked as I recall). More proof that they are over-ranked and living on their history? xcoffeex

[OL FU]

Elon's wasn' from a historical standpoint, it was back around 2009 we were ranked the whole season ended 9th and started the same. We had been ranked for 2 or 3 seasons. Thats when we fell apart. and dropped out week 7. We were given credit from recent history and consecutive weeks ranked.

Beats me. My post was a long time ago. I can't remember what I did yesterday:)

[Serpentor]

There's no way SHSU isn't #1 most overrated. I call foul play.

Well well well, Rootin is batting 1.000 for trying to start this argument in every thread.

[The Pud]

Well well well, Rootin is batting 1.000 for trying to start this argument in every thread.

+7

hahahaha!

[ElonFirefighter]

Beats me. My post was a long time ago. I can't remember what I did yesterday:)

Damn it was a while ago. Why are we still beating this dead horse. xdeadhorsex I Guess it would help if I looked at the date of your post. Whats next an updated discussion on Obama becoming president.

[milleniumkat]

Well well well, Rootin is batting 1.000 for trying to start this argument in every thread.

That's a bingo!

[Katfan]

Your big jumps in 2004 (+21), 2011 (+24), and 2014 (+15) are the main reason. The other big reason is you haven't had a season where you start really high and end unranked. UNI and Montana both have 2 seasons where they dropped 20 spots or more from beginning to end. SHSU's largest drop is from 14 to unranked (12 spots) and from 2 to 13 (11 spots).
2004 +21
2005 -12
2006 0
2007 -6
2008 0
2009 0
2010 0
2011 +24
2012 0
2013 -11
2014 +15
2015 -3
2016 -3
Thanks this is cool stuff. Our advantage is that in most of the years with 0, we were so bad that we were never ranked in the preseason poll.

[Katfan]

Yes I meant more from the concept of a program that wasn't good getting better for example shsu prior to 2011.

[Bisonoline]

Well well well, Rootin is batting 1.000 for trying to start this argument in every thread.

Hey has a point. I was surprised as well SHSU wasnt up there.

[milleniumkat]

Hey has a point. I was surprised as well SHSU wasnt up there.

It's about how the english language works.

[Catbooster]

Hey has a point. I was surprised as well SHSU wasnt up there.
Nah. A bunch of the SHSU fans overrate them, and in response most of the rest of us underrate them, resulting in a net underrating.

[milleniumkat]

Nah. A bunch of the SHSU fans overrate them, and in response most of the rest of us underrate them, resulting in a net underrating.

I'm a big fan of this guy. He gets the math and the human effect equally. That's a unique skill set indeed. This is me impressed.

[Thumper 76]

Hey has a point. I was surprised as well SHSU wasnt up there.

Maybe recently, but the years before when they played NDSU twice they were likely underrated, especially that first year. It doesn't take a lot to bump someones underrated ranking, one year of a big jump I think could do it.


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[milleniumkat]

If Nicholls comes to Bowers and thumps us, then we will be 100% overrated for 2017. That's how it works.

[Mayville Bison]

Bored, so I figured I'd take a shot at adding the past couple years. Not sure how Supe calculate Unranked (or 26-40) to in the poll or vice versa, but I basically said anything not in the top 25 was #26 (otherwise it would drastically over inflate one year wonders/slumps). Also took out non-FCS teams

Most overrated teams according to AGS voters
#1 Northern Iowa -68
#2 Montana -66
#3 Delaware -57
#4 McNeese St-48
#5 James Madison -38
#6(t) Furman -34
#6(t) Montana St -34
#8 Cal Poly -27
#9 Villlanova -25
#10 Elon -23

Most underrated teams according to AGS voters
#1 Harvard +35
#2 Sam Houston St +25
#3 New Hampshire +24
#4 Richmond +21
#5 Jacksonville St +20
#6 Penn +18
#7 Fordham +17
#8 Bethune-Cookman +16
#9(t) Samford +15
#9(t) Eastern Illinois +15

More than likely messed up somewhere. Overall, 29 teams have a negative movement, 61 have positive movement, and one (GSU) was at zero.

Since the season ended, I figured I would update this. UNI is no longer the most overrated team in AGS

Most overrated teams according to AGS voters
#1 Montana -66
#2 Northern Iowa -58
#3 Delaware -55
#4 McNeese St -48
#5 Villanova -42
#6 James Madison -39
#7 Montana St -34
#8 Cal Poly -32
#9 Chattanooga -31
#10 Furman -25

Most underrated teams according to AGS voters
#1 Harvard +35
#2 Southern Utah +30
#3 Weber St +27
#4 New Hampshire +26
#5 Sam Houston St +25
#6 Kennesaw St +20
#7 Jacksonville St +19
#8(t) San Diego +18
#8(t) Penn +18
#10(t) Bethune-Cookman +16
#10(t) Stony Brook +16

60 teams have positive movement, 32 teams have negative movement, and one team (ISUr) at 0.

[clenz]

Suck it, bitches!

[ST_Lawson]

Great work Mayville. Is there any way to see the full list of teams? I'm just curious where WIU falls on the scale. My guess is a little bit underrated, but I'm interested to see what the numbers say.

[Mayville Bison]

Great work Mayville. Is there any way to see the full list of teams? I'm just curious where WIU falls on the scale. My guess is a little bit underrated, but I'm interested to see what the numbers say.

Here's the full list (that includes teams no longer in the FSC). Most of the abbreviations are obvious to me, but not for everyone. If you want to see the year-by-year breakdown for a certain team, let me know. I added WIU's to the bottom.



Team
Total


UM
-66


UNI
-58


UD
-55


McNeese
-48


Nova
-42


JMU
-39


MSU
-34


CP
-32


Chatty
-31


Umass
-27


FU
-25


YSU
-19


Northwestern State
-17


WKU
-17


Elon
-15


NIU
-15


NAU
-14



W&M
-13


SIU
-12


EWU
-8


App St
-7


UND
-7


UCD
-6


Idaho St
-5


Northeastern
-3


SELA
-3


SFA
-2


UNA
-2


UNC
-2


Lehigh
-1


Southern
-1


Texas St
-1


ISUr
0


Alabama St
1


CSU
1


Dartmouth
1


Dayton
1


GSU
1


Hofstra
1


ISUb
1


Liberty
1


Maine
1


NCC
1


PSU
1


Richmond
1


The Citadel
1


NCA&T
2


Tennessee St
2


Lafayette
3


Sacred Heart
3


Tenn-Tech
3


Yale
3


RM
4


Tenn-martin
4


Towson
4


Colgate
5


Wagner
5


Albany
6


Grambling
6


Norfolk
6


WIU
6


PVA&M
7


EKU
8


SDSU
8


SEMO
9


Wofford
9


NCAT
10


UCA
10


Brown
11


Hampton
11


Holy Cross
11


Princeton
11


NDSU
12


Nicholls
12


USD
12


Samford
13


Fordham
14


SCSU
14


CCU
15


EIU
15


BC
16


Stony Brook
16


OD
18


Penn
18


San Diego
18


JSU
19


KSU
20


Texas State
23


SHSU
25


UNH
26


WSU
27


SUU
30


Harvard
35






Team
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total


WIU
-9





10




7
-7
5
6

[Thumper 76]

So where are all the USeD boys at crying overrated SDSU again?


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[jacksfan29]

So where are all the USeD boys at crying overrated SDSU again?


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Where are they? Patting themselves on the back for going 4-4 in conference play and losing 5 of their last 7 games.

I'm amazed at how that type of failure can get them excited. As bad as our loss to JMU was, can you imagine what would be happening had lost 5 of our last 7? Stig would be on a serious hot seat, if not already asked by Sell to retire. USD? They want to give Nielson a raise. Says a lot about the state of the two programs.

[IBleedYellow]

Where are they? Patting themselves on the back for going 4-4 in conference play and losing 5 of their last 7 games.

I'm amazed at how that type of failure can get them excited. As bad as our loss to JMU was, can you imagine what would be happening had lost 5 of our last 7? Stig would be on a serious hot seat, if not already asked by Sell to retire. USD? They want to give Nielson a raise. Says a lot about the state of the two programs.

You guys won't ever fire Stig. Ever.

[clenz]

You guys won't ever fire Stig. Ever.
He's been there longer than Farley has been at UNI. He aint getting fired.


HC for 21 seasons
Been at SDSU 29 seasons
6 straight FCS playoff appearances (7 in 9 years)
Been in the top 25 for something like 70 straight weeks

If he wasn't fired after going
4-6
6-5
8-3
6-5
5-6
6-4
7-4
6-5
6-5

He never finished better than 4th in the NCC. In his first 9 seasons he isn't getting fired for how the last 9 seasons have gone.

[Cocky]

Since the season ended, I figured I would update this. UNI is no longer the most overrated team in AGS

Most overrated teams according to AGS voters
#1 Montana -66
#2 Northern Iowa -58
#3 Delaware -55
#4 McNeese St -48
#5 Villanova -42
#6 James Madison -39
#7 Montana St -34
#8 Cal Poly -32
#9 Chattanooga -31
#10 Furman -25

Most underrated teams according to AGS voters
#1 Harvard +35
#2 Southern Utah +30
#3 Weber St +27
#4 New Hampshire +26
#5 Sam Houston St +25
#6 Kennesaw St +20
#7 Jacksonville St +19
#8(t) San Diego +18
#8(t) Penn +18
#10(t) Bethune-Cookman +16
#10(t) Stony Brook +16

60 teams have positive movement, 32 teams have negative movement, and one team (ISUr) at 0.

Hard to understand JSU being considered underrated.

[Silenoz]

Since the season ended, I figured I would update this. UNI is no longer the most overrated team in AGS

Most overrated teams according to AGS voters
#1 Montana -66
#2 Northern Iowa -58
#3 Delaware -55
#4 McNeese St -48
#5 Villanova -42
#6 James Madison -39
#7 Montana St -34
#8 Cal Poly -32
#9 Chattanooga -31
#10 Furman -25


Suck it bitches. Vote us number #22 next season, I dare you!

[BisonFan02]

Suck it bitches. Vote us number #22 next season, I dare you!

Or unranked.

[Silenoz]

Or unranked.

Well that's no fun. How are we supposed to hang on to this throne without votes?

[BisonFan02]

Well that's no fun. How are we supposed to hang on to this throne without votes?

New highpoint in #grizfootball?

[clenz]

Hard to understand JSU being considered underrated.
As I've said before on this - it's a silly "title" to put on anyone.

UNI, for years, was considered the most overrated program in this. It wasn't this thread but another on this topic where I showed how silly this was. I don't remember the exact number but basically UNI still finished, on average, in the top 12 or so every single year sans like 2, but were considered the most overrated because it went from like 4 or 5 preseason to 12 post season or something like that.

Even looking at it now there have been 13 years of the AGS poll. The total difference for UNI preseason and UNI post season rankings is 4.4 spots. Basically UNI could start every year at number 1, finish every year at #5 and still be the most overrated team of all time.

It's also incredibly difficult/impossible to truly calculate this based on final total. Let's use Austin Peay as an example this year. They didn't get a single preseason vote. They finished 29th in the final poll. What's their difference? Obviously +, but + what? Maybe they don't count because they didn't get into the poll. Let's say they got to 25 and counted. What is the +? For all we know they would have been 107 preseason. 107 to 25 is a 82 spot gain...in one year. That's enough to make them the most underrated team of all time...but that doesn't count like that.

Now, let's say a team starts at #5 but falls to not even getting a single vote - usually about 35-40 teams. How is that counted? Maybe they went 1-10 and would have been 105 in the rankings. That's a 100 spot drop, but it doesn't count like that. Is it only seen as a 21 spot drop, because that's what got them out of the top 25? If so that's not fair for a few reasons.

This is also for the entire AGS era. Meaning 13 years of polling to compare against. A ton changes in that time.

In general I don't really care for this ranking analysis.

[Yotes21]

Where are they? Patting themselves on the back for going 4-4 in conference play and losing 5 of their last 7 games.

I'm amazed at how that type of failure can get them excited. As bad as our loss to JMU was, can you imagine what would be happening had lost 5 of our last 7? Stig would be on a serious hot seat, if not already asked by Sell to retire. USD? They want to give Nielson a raise. Says a lot about the state of the two programs.

SDSCA wanted Stig fired mid-season...talk about over-reaction like usual from the bunny turds. Also, who said the Jackoffs were overrated? They made it to the final four before TC decided he wanted to be a baker and hand out turnovers like it was his job...What an embarrassing loss. They have yet to beat a seeded team in the playoffs.

[Thumper 76]

SDSCA wanted Stig fired mid-season...talk about over-reaction like usual from the bunny turds. Also, who said the Jackoffs were overrated? They made it to the final four before TC decided he wanted to be a baker and hand out turnovers like it was his job...What an embarrassing loss. They have yet to beat a seeded team in the playoffs.

That was trumpeted early and often by Yote53 and others at the start of the season. I’m not going to say that game wasn’t an embarrassment, but I’ll certainly take an embarrassment in the quarters over anything the Yotes have done the last decade or so. Or over having kids enrolling next year who weren’t born the last time you beat your in state rivals. That would be embarrassing.


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[POD Knows]

That was trumpeted early and often by Yote53 and others at the start of the season. I’m not going to say that game wasn’t an embarrassment, but I’ll certainly take an embarrassment in the quarters over anything the Yotes have done the last decade or so. Or over having kids enrolling next year who weren’t born the last time you beat your in state rivals. That would be embarrassing.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkYou were embarrassed in the semi's, don't sell yourself short now.

[Bison56]

That was trumpeted early and often by Yote53 and others at the start of the season. I’m not going to say that game wasn’t an embarrassment, but I’ll certainly take an embarrassment in the quarters over anything the Yotes have done the last decade or so. Or over having kids enrolling next year who weren’t born the last time you beat your in state rivals. That would be embarrassing.


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You must be still drunk, because it was the semi finals.

[Silenoz]

New highpoint in #grizfootball?

I don't respond to people that use hashtags

Starting now

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

I don't respond to people that use hashtags

#StartingNow


FIFY

[Thumper 76]

You were embarrassed in the semi's, don't sell yourself short now.


You must be still drunk, because it was the semi finals.

Ouch. I’m real stupid sometimes.


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[TheKingpin28]

Ouch. I’m real stupid sometimes.


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It must be from all that time you spent in Brookings and/or with me. I can't be for sure about which one had more influence though.

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[Thumper 76]

It must be from all that time you spent in Brookings and/or with me. I can't be for sure about which one had more influence though.

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Maybe he’s born with it.......
Maybe it’s Alcohol


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[Houndawg]

Well put. I wouldn't mind a post-season road trip to any of those places! Not likely to happen in my lifetime, though.


Thats a long ride home...

[cx500d]

You were embarrassed in the semi's, don't sell yourself short now.


They are so used to getting embarrassed in the Quarters....