TypicalTribe
November 20th, 2014, 11:43 AM
Not sure about anyone else, but I don't ever remember a season where there was more to be decided with only one game to go. As far as I can tell, there are only 11 true locks at his point:
NDSU, Ill St, UNH, Nova, CCU, Jax St, EWU, Chatty, Fordham, Sacred Heart and San Diego
After that, it's anybody's guess. I think SELA and JMU are probably in, but a loss to 0-11 Nicholls or 1-10 Elon to close the season at 8-4 would make for a lot of nailbiting on Sunday morning. I also think EKU is safe even with a loss at Florida, but their computer rankings are terrible. Lastly, I think Montana State should be okay even with a loss at Montana, but the Big Sky is a jumbled mess. Still assuming those four are probables, that gives us 15 slots. That leaves us 9 spots and here are the teams that I think are in with wins:
UNI, SDSU, Indy St, YSU, SHSU, Liberty, Montana, Richmond and NC A&T
If all those teams win, I think that's the field. However, it's doubtful that will happen. First off, though, Richmond's spot qould be taken by W&M and NC A&T would be replaced by another MEAC team for the auto-bid. So that leaves 7 spots. YSU is expected by most to lose and Liberty and Montana face tough roads as well. The question is who would replace them? The bubble is not large, not particularly distinguished, but looks something like this:
Idaho State/NAU
SFA/McNeese?
Bryant
Bucknell
After that, we quickly get to 5 loss teams, and not particulary distinguished ones. It really wouldn't surprise me if the committee had a bracket in place before the games on Saturday and is prepared to slot replacements in for any losers, i.e. Idaho St or NAU in for Montana or a surprise MVFC loser and possibly Bryant or Bucknell in for Liberty or Youngstown.
Can't wait to see how this all plays out.
NDSU, Ill St, UNH, Nova, CCU, Jax St, EWU, Chatty, Fordham, Sacred Heart and San Diego
After that, it's anybody's guess. I think SELA and JMU are probably in, but a loss to 0-11 Nicholls or 1-10 Elon to close the season at 8-4 would make for a lot of nailbiting on Sunday morning. I also think EKU is safe even with a loss at Florida, but their computer rankings are terrible. Lastly, I think Montana State should be okay even with a loss at Montana, but the Big Sky is a jumbled mess. Still assuming those four are probables, that gives us 15 slots. That leaves us 9 spots and here are the teams that I think are in with wins:
UNI, SDSU, Indy St, YSU, SHSU, Liberty, Montana, Richmond and NC A&T
If all those teams win, I think that's the field. However, it's doubtful that will happen. First off, though, Richmond's spot qould be taken by W&M and NC A&T would be replaced by another MEAC team for the auto-bid. So that leaves 7 spots. YSU is expected by most to lose and Liberty and Montana face tough roads as well. The question is who would replace them? The bubble is not large, not particularly distinguished, but looks something like this:
Idaho State/NAU
SFA/McNeese?
Bryant
Bucknell
After that, we quickly get to 5 loss teams, and not particulary distinguished ones. It really wouldn't surprise me if the committee had a bracket in place before the games on Saturday and is prepared to slot replacements in for any losers, i.e. Idaho St or NAU in for Montana or a surprise MVFC loser and possibly Bryant or Bucknell in for Liberty or Youngstown.
Can't wait to see how this all plays out.