UNH SoS Dropping?

[jmrepak]

I posted this in the How They Fared thread, but wanted to see if there was anyone else that felt similarly...

Is it worth taking a look that UNH's schedule is starting to look a lot weaker than it did 2 weeks ago? Their two biggest wins were W&M and UofR. W&M may make it back into the top 25 this week, but would be questionable and I think they are out of the playoffs and won't make the final top 25 if they lose to the Spiders. Richmond just lost to Maine, and as much as the Spider in me hates to say it, will probably drop to the mid-teens. Their next two games are must wins to make the field and if they drop either one they may be out of the top 25 as well. You could very well see Coastal with more wins over top 25 teams than UNH at the end of week 13.

Everyone is putting UNH squarely ahead of CCU based on SoS, but their SoS is 188 vs 204 respectively. They are both very weak schedules without much separation, and Coastal is coming out of the second ranked conference in every single composite system including GPI, Massey and Sagarin. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see why Coastal keeps getting dinged in discussion over SoS, but no one is saying the same about the Wildcats.

[UNH Fanboi]

I posted this in the How They Fared thread, but wanted to see if there was anyone else that felt similarly...

Is it worth taking a look that UNH's schedule is starting to look a lot weaker than it did 2 weeks ago? Their two biggest wins were W&M and UofR. W&M may make it back into the top 25 this week, but would be questionable and I think they are out of the playoffs and won't make the final top 25 if they lose to the Spiders. Richmond just lost to Maine, and as much as the Spider in me hates to say it, will probably drop to the mid-teens. Their next two games are must wins to make the field and if they drop either one they may be out of the top 25 as well. You could very well see Coastal with more wins over top 25 teams than UNH at the end of week 13.

Everyone is putting UNH squarely ahead of CCU based on SoS, but their SoS is 188 vs 204 respectively. They are both very weak schedules without much separation, and Coastal is coming out of the second ranked conference in every single composite system including GPI, Massey and Sagarin. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see why Coastal keeps getting dinged in discussion over SoS, but no one is saying the same about the Wildcats.

People are taking their SoS into account. That's why there is not a groundswell for them being #1. Anyway, UNH deserves to be slightly ahead of CCU because their wins over Richmond and W&M are still better than any of CCU's wins, even if they are looking less impressive. Also, CCU's double-OT win over Furman is much more suspect than any of UNH's wins.

[Mattymc727]

I think you have a pretty solid point, and I have no problem putting CCU ahead of UNH.

That Liberty game will be very interesting. UNH beat Richmond on the road who beat Liberty on the road, which is very tough. How CCU does against Liberty may provide more comparison as to CCU Vs UNH.

That Richmond loss to Maine is a real head scratcher. Perhaps Maine is turning things around. That battle for the musket to end the year in Orono could be a huge game. Always a good one.

I have a feeling CCU and UNH are very similar teams.

[KPSUL]

I posted this in the How They Fared thread, but wanted to see if there was anyone else that felt similarly...

Is it worth taking a look that UNH's schedule is starting to look a lot weaker than it did 2 weeks ago?

No. Both teams' schedule will get a lot stronger after November 23rd.

[robsnotes4u]

Just remember the SOS you are looking at with Sagarin is not the same as SOS calculation of the NCAA SRS.

SOS can be different.
1. BCS only used three levels of games, yours, your opponents, and your opponents first level opponents.
2. Some use a margin of victory
3. NCAA version uses wins and loses, along with some special points for FBS and D11

We don't get to see the NCAA calculations until very late in the game.

[chattownmocs]

Most people probably just think UNH is a lot better. I'm a little surprised jsu isn't ahead as well.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I love this time of year because everyone throws everyone under the bus....

I'll take the Wildcats experience and coaching. RJ Harris, that OL and everyone else will ready come playoff time. I don't care what the "numbers" say. This team is elite....

[kalm]

The Big South conference ranking is a bit misleading considering their level of OOC wins and the fact they don't have at least an additional two teams pulling it down.

[rokamortis]

The Big South conference ranking is a bit misleading considering their level of OOC wins and the fact they don't have at least an additional two teams pulling it down.

Why do you think 2 more teams would pull us down? Could just make us stronger.

[kalm]

Math

[rokamortis]

Math

Conference strength is measured mostly by OOC results. So two more teams that kick ass OOC could make it more like the MVFC. Two more teams that get beat would make it more like the Big Sky.

[kalm]

Conference strength is measured mostly by OOC results. So two more teams that kick ass OOC could make it more like the MVFC. Two more teams that get beat would make it more like the Big Sky.

Would they be kicking ass against the MEAC and a beat down Southern or losing against the MVFC and SLC?

[rokamortis]

Would they be kicking ass against the MEAC and a beat down Southern or losing against the MVFC and SLC?

Probably just kicking ass and taking names. xtroublex Don't think there would be any NAIA teams though.

[rokamortis]

People are taking their SoS into account. That's why there is not a groundswell for them being #1. Anyway, UNH deserves to be slightly ahead of CCU because their wins over Richmond and W&M are still better than any of CCU's wins, even if they are looking less impressive. Also, CCU's double-OT win over Furman is much more suspect than any of UNH's wins.

I agree that UNH should be ahead of Coastal - they have the better wins right now. I think UNH should win out but wonder if UD and Maine might provide some stiff competition or if UNH will roll. I know Monmouth pulled out all the stops in their Liberty game so will be interesting to see what happens this weekend. the Coastal / Liberty game will be so emotionally charged (especially from Liberty's side) that I could see us dropping it - I know we should win and believe we will, but as we've seen many times this season alone, the team that should win doesn't always win.

[UNH72Plus]

I was down on Coastal last year for their SoS, and they showed they belonged in the play-offs. That being said, I believe UNH should be ranked ahead of them this year, again because of their opponents records. Six of their 10 opponents have wins over D-II teams (Charleston Southern has 2). Take away the D-II wins and they have only beaten 2 teams with winning records. In the games with a mutual opponent (Elon), Coastal had their starters still playing well into the 4th quarter before winning 31-3. In UNH's game with Elon they pulled the starters pretty much at half time when they were ahead 34-0, and went on to win 48-14 after the second and third strings gave up 2 late TDs.

[KPSUL]

I agree that UNH should be ahead of Coastal - they have the better wins right now. I think UNH should win out but wonder if UD and Maine might provide some stiff competition or if UNH will roll. I know Monmouth pulled out all the stops in their Liberty game so will be interesting to see what happens this weekend. the Coastal / Liberty game will be so emotionally charged (especially from Liberty's side) that I could see us dropping it - I know we should win and believe we will, but as we've seen many times this season alone, the team that should win doesn't always win.

Delaware is no automatic win for UNH this weekend either. Both teams (UNH CCU) better keep their attention focused on upcoming opponents and not on the polls. I was at the Liberty Monmouth game and was impressed with the offensive execution of both teams, as well as their ability to adapt defensively and come up with some key plays. The difference between and losing was mainly the play of Liberty's small and elusive RB, DJ Abner.

[UNHFootballAlum]

Conference SOS has no bearing on an individual team's ability to win in the playoffs and the 'ship'. it may only mean that many of the teams in the league are having a poor season.

[rokamortis]

Conference SOS has no bearing on an individual team's ability to win in the playoffs and the 'ship'. it may only mean that many of the teams in the league are having a poor season.

It also means that you probably play those teams that are having a poor season.

[caribbeanhen]

Delaware is no automatic win for UNH this weekend either.

Delaware fans think otherwise ....

[UNHFootballAlum]

It also means that you probably play those teams that are having a poor season.

Yes it does, but you play who ever is on your schedule, but again this is not an indicator of how good a team is. It is only an indicator on the strength of the league

[rokamortis]

Yes it does, but you play who ever is on your schedule, but again this is not an indicator of how good a team is. It is only an indicator on the strength of the league

I agree. You can have strong teams in weak leagues. But the knock is it is a weak league so the strong team only appears strong due to the weakness of their conference competition. It is common practice here to knock good teams in conferences with perceived weak teams, don't see why it should change now.

[MR. CHICKEN]

20021....'MAZIN'-LAH 'NUFF.....STRONG TEAMS FROM WEAK LEAGUES....SOMETIMES.....PLAY STRONG TEAMS FROM STRONG LEAGUES.....PRETTY [email protected] DANCE.......SOMETIMES OWN-LAH LOSIN'....BAH CLOSER SCORES....DAN DUH RUNNERS-UP...FROM STRONG LEAGUES.....JES' SAYIN'....xtwocentsxxtwocentsx...AWQ!

[Wallace]

UNH fell in the GPI from #2 to #5 because of their softer schedule, jes' sayin'. Play strong teams from strong leagues and let the tournament do the rest

[jmrepak]

So Sagarin left them higher but both composites dropped them...maybe someone was on to something.

Still doesnt matter though unless both teams win out.

[phoenix3]

The Big South conference ranking is a bit misleading considering their level of OOC wins and the fact they don't have at least an additional two teams pulling it down.

I agree with this statement as much as it pains me to do so. Elon and RI, (sorry RI fans, no disrespect intended), are significantly weaker in ratings than the other teams in the conference. This brings the overall conference strength down, which in turn reduces the individual teams' SoS. Playing Elon and RI were they NOT in the CAA would not have had the same double negative impact to the other CAA teams' SoS.

Last time I looked, Elon had the 9th toughest schedule in the FCS, BTW.

[rokamortis]

I agree with this statement as much as it pains me to do so. Elon and RI, (sorry RI fans, no disrespect intended), are significantly weaker in ratings than the other teams in the conference. This brings the overall conference strength down, which in turn reduces the individual teams' SoS. Playing Elon and RI were they NOT in the CAA would not have had the same double negative impact to the other CAA teams' SoS.

Last time I looked, Elon had the 9th toughest schedule in the FCS, BTW.

Two additional teams doesn't mean they'd pull us down. The MVFC is larger and killed OOC. Thye Big South did good OOC. It is assumptive to think that if we had two more schools that they wouldn't do good OOC.

VMI leaving did help though.

[phoenix3]

Two additional teams doesn't mean they'd pull us down. The MVFC is larger and killed OOC. Thye Big South did good OOC. It is assumptive to think that if we had two more schools that they wouldn't do good OOC.

VMI leaving did help though.

Right. And since VMI is ranked 98, which the Big South no longer has, the Big South gets an upward bump. And since Elon is ranked 94 and Rhode Island is ranked 112, the CAA gets a big downward bump. In turn, this gives CCU a bump up and UNH gets a downward bump. Not a big deal really since the playoffs will sort things out. But it could have an effect on seeding.

[rokamortis]

Right. And since VMI is ranked 98, which the Big South no longer has, the Big South gets an upward bump. And since Elon is ranked 94 and Rhode Island is ranked 112, the CAA gets a big downward bump. In turn, this gives CCU a bump up and UNH gets a downward bump. Not a big deal really since the playoffs will sort things out. But it could have an effect on seeding.

The SoCon is smaller than it was a few years ago, so it should be stronger then - right?

[UNH72Plus]

Just out of curiosity, since a team's SoS is based in part on their opponents' record, if they beat an opponent does that lower their SoS since that opponent's record is worse after the loss? And conversely, if they lose the game does that improve their SoS?

[rokamortis]

Just out of curiosity, since a team's SoS is based in part on their opponents' record, if they beat an opponent does that lower their SoS since that opponent's record is worse after the loss? And conversely, if they lose the game does that improve their SoS?

I think it depends on the system - some will remove the results from team they are calculating SOS for from their opponent's records.

[phoenix3]

The SoCon is smaller than it was a few years ago, so it should be stronger then - right?

It's not the size of the conference. It's the percentage of good teams in it. Obviously, there are a number of factors that determine what a good team is. My point was simply that part of determining a team's computer ranking is the strength of the conference. The BS doesn't have the two lows the CAA does. Therefore, the teams in BS benefit from this overall versus the CAA. If you're taking this as a slight toward CCU, don't. It wasn't meant that way. As I said, in the end, it really doesn't matter, UNH and CCU will both make the playoffs .Wins and losses will be the deciding factor.

[KPSUL]

The SoCon is smaller than it was a few years ago, so it should be stronger then - right?

No. SoCon became smaller and weaker, because the two perennial powerhouse teams left the conference. Big South became stronger because its weakest team left the conference. Conversely, Big South will likely become weaker next season when brand new Kennesaw State joins the conference.

[phoenix3]

^^^

[rokamortis]

It's not the size of the conference. It's the percentage of good teams in it. Obviously, there are a number of factors that determine what a good team is. My point was simply that part of determining a team's computer ranking is the strength of the conference. The BS doesn't have the two lows the CAA does. Therefore, the teams in BS benefit from this overall versus the CAA. If you're taking this as a slight toward CCU, don't. It wasn't meant that way. As I said, in the end, it really doesn't matter, UNH and CCU will both make the playoffs .Wins and losses will be the deciding factor.

Wait, what? You agreed with someone who posted that the Big South looks better than it is because it is small.

<<Looks back .... Yep.


The Big South conference ranking is a bit misleading considering their level of OOC wins and the fact they don't have at least an additional two teams pulling it down.


I agree with this statement as much as it pains me to do so. Elon and RI, (sorry RI fans, no disrespect intended), are significantly weaker in ratings than the other teams in the conference. This brings the overall conference strength down, which in turn reduces the individual teams' SoS. Playing Elon and RI were they NOT in the CAA would not have had the same double negative impact to the other CAA teams' SoS.

Last time I looked, Elon had the 9th toughest schedule in the FCS, BTW.


I thought you Elon guys were supposed to be smart.

But I agree - the Biog South looks stronger because we don't have the weaker teams and this is stronger. But that has nothing to do with the original post in which you responded to and agreed.

[rokamortis]

No. SoCon became smaller and weaker, because the two perennial powerhouse teams left the conference. Big South became stronger because its weakest team left the conference. Conversely, Big South will likely become weaker next season when brand new Kennesaw State joins the conference.

The Big South became stronger because it won more games OOC than every other conference except the MVFC.

[KPSUL]

The Big South became stronger because it won more games OOC than every other conference except the MVFC.

A true master of superfluous circular logic.

[Panther-State]

The Big South became stronger because it won more games OOC than every other conference except the MVFC.
Who were these great teams that the Big South beat in the non-conference? Its great that the Big South won games...but who did they win them against?

[rokamortis]

Who were these great teams that the Big South beat in the non-conference? Its great that the Big South won games...but who did they win them against?

Of course not.

[rokamortis]

A true master of superfluous circular logic.

Sure

[Panther-State]

Of course not.

Wait...wut?

[rokamortis]

Wait...wut?

32

[phoenix3]

You're very dense rook. You're lost as I would suspect one of you brilliant chants to be.

[rokamortis]

You're very dense rook. You're lost as I would suspect one of you brilliant chants to be.

If you say so.

Say hi to your mom for me.

[jmrepak]

Well, I hate to say it, but Richmond's loss today pretty much puts the exclamation point on the premise of this thread. However, Liberty losing doesn't exactly help our case for our big last game either so I guess it's a pretty neutral impact going into next week.

[UNH Fanboi]

Well, I hate to say it, but Richmond's loss today pretty much puts the exclamation point on the premise of this thread. However, Liberty losing doesn't exactly help our case for our big last game either so I guess it's a pretty neutral impact going into next week.

UNH and CCU are in similar spots--dominating wins over not so great competition. I still think UNH's overall resume is better, but it's very close.

[jmrepak]

UNH and CCU are in similar spots--dominating wins over not so great competition. I still think UNH's overall resume is better, but it's very close.
I'm not sure who's overall is better, but you're right. It's very close at this point. We would have had a much stronger argument if Liberty won today and then we beat them next week, but they crapped the bed so now it's still up in the air.

[Longhorn]

When Coastal gets taken to the woodshed and humbled in the playoffs we'll all see exactly what a paper tiger they and their conference have been all year. Pretender not a contender.

[jmrepak]

Ask Montana how much of a paper tiger we are. When a team from the beach travels almost 3,000 miles and plays in one of the coldest ncaa football games in history in hostile territory and takes out a power player. It may have been last year, but all of our defensive and offensive leaders are still here. Think whatever you want, but if we make 12-0 they'll be coming to our wood shed!

[Longhorn]

Ask Montana how much of a paper tiger we are. When a team from the beach travels almost 3,000 miles and plays in one of the coldest ncaa football games in history in hostile territory and takes out a power player. It may have been last year, but all of our defensive and offensive leaders are still here. Think whatever you want, but if we make 12-0 they'll be coming to our wood shed!

Montana is crap this year. Try again.

[WileECoyote06]

When Coastal gets taken to the woodshed and humbled in the playoffs we'll all see exactly what a paper tiger they and their conference have been all year. Pretender not a contender.

Getting beaten in the playoffs is not an indicator of them being a paper tiger. It's one moment in time. .. . and considering the lop-sided playoff scores over the past few years, wouldn't be all that surprising.

South Dakota State defeated Northern Arizona 26 - 7 last year. Does that mean that the Big Sky conference is a paper tiger? Well considering, Eastern Washington defeated South Dakota State 41-17 in their next game, I'd say nope. In the playoffs it's about match-ups, home/away games, and to a lesser extent weather/environment.

Liberty losing to Chuck South may have cost Coastal a #2 or #3 seed though.