Bracketology

[FargoBison]

The most interesting bracketology yet...MVFC moves up to five projected playoff teams....NDSU holds onto the top seed due to the strength of the MVFC and FBS win...

The Field
Idaho State at SDSU vs 1. NDSU
EKU at JMU vs 8. Fordham


San Diego at Cal Poly vs 5. EWU
SFA at NAU vs 4. Jacksonville State


SHSU at UNI vs 6. ISUR
SELA at Chattanooga vs 3. CCU


Bryant at YSU vs 7. Nova
SC State at Richmond vs 2. UNH

Autobids(11): NAU, CCU, UNH, SC State, NDSU, Bryant, Jacksonville St, Fordham, San Diego, Chattanooga, SHSU
At Large(13): EWU, Nova, ISUR, EKU, SDSU, UNI, YSU, Idaho St, Richmond, JMU, SFA, SELA, Cal Poly


Bubble: Liberty, ISUB, Montana State, NC A&T, William and Mary, SIU, Delaware, Montana, McNeese State, Bucknell and Sacred Heart


Bold/italic=team has has clinched

NoBowls.com
http://nobowls.com/images/week11.png


Chris Lang(Lynchburg News and Advance)

Bryant-Fordham winner at #1 New Hampshire
Richmond-YSU winner at #8 Southeastern Louisiana


SCSU-Chattanooga winner at #4 Coastal Carolina
SDSU-SHSU winner at #5 Eastern Washington


JMU-Liberty winner at #3 Jacksonville State
EKU-UNI winner at #6 Villanova


Jacksonville-BCU winner at #2 North Dakota State
MSU-NAU winner at #7 Illinois State


Sports Network
Eastern Kentucky/Montana winner at No. 1 seed North Dakota State
Jacksonville/Richmond winner at No. 8 seed Chattanooga


Cal Poly/Southeastern Louisiana winner at No. 5 seed Eastern Washington
Sam Houston State/Northern Iowa winner at No. 4 seed Illinois State


Bethune-Cookman/Liberty winner at No. 3 seed Coastal Carolina
Fordham/South Carolina State winner at No. 6 seed Jacksonville State


Northern Arizona/South Dakota State winner at No. 7 seed Villanova
Bryant/Youngstown State winner at No. 2 seed New Hampshire


On the at-large bubble: Idaho State, Indiana State, James Madison, Montana State, North Carolina A&T, Stephen F. Austin

[dewey]

The most interesting bracketology yet...MVFC moves up to five projected playoff teams....NDSU holds onto the top seed due to the strength of the MVFC and FBS win...

SFA at NAU vs 1. NDSU
EKU at JMU vs 8. Fordham


Idaho State at SDSU vs 5. EWU
SC State at Chattanooga vs 4. Jacksonville State


Richmond at UNI vs 6. ISUR
Jacksonville at Bethune-Cookman vs 3. CCU


Bryant at YSU vs 7. Nova
SHSU at Cal Poly vs 2. UNH


Autobids(11): NAU, CCU, UNH, SC State, NDSU, Bryant, Jacksonville St, Fordham, Jacksonville, Chattanooga, SELA
At Large(13): EWU, Nova, ISUR, EKU, SDSU, UNI, YSU, Idaho St, Richmond, JMU, SFA, Bethune-Cookman, Cal Poly


Bubble: ISUB, Montana State, Liberty, NC A&T, William and Mary, SIU, Delaware, Montana, McNeese State, Bucknell and Sacred Heart


Bold/italic=team has has clinched

Is it supposed to be Southeastern Louisiana instead of Sam Houston State in the Villanova bracket?

Dewey

[FargoBison]

Is it supposed to be Southeastern Louisiana instead of Sam Houston State in the Villanova bracket?

Dewey

Good catch, SELA over SHSU for the auto was a late switch and I guess I didn't swap them in the bracket.

[Theee Catrabbit]

At this point I wouldn't bitch about being sent to EWU again.....I just want SDSU in again!

[WrenFGun]

My bracket would look fairly similar as far as teams in. My only change:

Montana State over Idaho State -- Idaho State needs to win out to get to 7 DI wins [2 non-counters] and one of those games is @ Montana State. I'd feel comfortable projecting the winner of that game to be in, and I think MSU is more likely.

Liberty is probably the first team out, IMO. They're in if they win out, likely bumping SFA.

[FargoBison]

My bracket would look fairly similar as far as teams in. My only change:

Montana State over Idaho State -- Idaho State needs to win out to get to 7 DI wins [2 non-counters] and one of those games is @ Montana State. I'd feel comfortable projecting the winner of that game to be in, and I think MSU is more likely.

Liberty is probably the first team out, IMO. They're in if they win out, likely bumping SFA.

Yeah, I struggled with that game. I took Idaho State because I think they are playing better football, but that could go either way.

[Professor Chaos]

What happens if UNI loses at SIU next week and beats MSU to close the season to finish 7-5 (5-3)? Talk about a conundrum for the selection committee. I know that they've never put a 5 loss team into the field but if both NDSU and Illinois St are top 4 seeds and UNI is the only team to beat either can they really leave the Panthers out?

[FargoBison]

What do people think of my seed projections? I have Fordham winning out, if they lose Chattanooga would the next team up at 8.

[Red & Black]

What do people think of my seed projections? I have Fordham winning out, if they lose Chattanooga would the next team up at 8.

I think 5 MVFC teams is a stretch, but who knows.

I also think at 10-2 EWU is probably a 3 or 4 seed due to a narrow 3 point loss at Washington and a one point loss on the road to the team you have projected as the BSC auto-bid.

I know they will probably get it due to their weak remaining schedule, but NAU as the BSC auto-bid is crazy to me. I think there's 3-4 teams in the BSC that are better overall teams.

[smilo]

What do people think of my seed projections? I have Fordham winning out, if they lose Chattanooga would the next team up at 8.

I just put together my field too (with projections for the final 2 weeks meaning several upsets especially in BSC), and I put 1-loss Fordham at the 8 seed. The FBS win is going to be too appealing with just a single loss. Montana State or Northern Iowa were the other options, but seriously, UNI is just coming around and barely ahead of the 462 other 4-loss Valley teams while Montana State doesn't have a really great win either. I'm indifferent to beating Central Arkansas+Montana+Idaho State with a Cal Poly loss vs. Army+Bucknell wins. The 1-loss will do it for me.

[FargoBison]

I think 5 MVFC teams is a stretch, but who knows.

I also think at 10-2 EWU is probably a 3 or 4 seed due to a narrow 3 point loss at Washington and a one point loss on the road to the team you have projected as the BSC auto-bid.

I know they will probably get it due to their weak remaining schedule, but NAU as the BSC auto-bid is crazy to me. I think there's 3-4 teams in the BSC that are better overall teams.

UNI's AD was on the radio saying the same thing about NAU this morning.

As for EWU's seed, I think the committee will unfairly reward CCU for beating nobody.

[TheRevSFA]

I like it but I think you gotta throw Sam back in.

If SFA, Sam and SELA win out the Southland is a three bid conference.

If SELA loses, Sam wins conference and SFA gets at large

[FargoBison]

I like it but I think you gotta throw Sam back in.

If SFA, Sam and SELA win out the Southland is a three bid conference.

If SELA loses, Sam wins conference and SFA gets at large

So if SELA and Sam win out, Sam gets the auto? If so put in Sam and take out Richmond.

[PantherRob82]

Southland and Big Sky should have some interesting finishes.

[TheRevSFA]

So if SELA and Sam win out, Sam gets the auto? If so put in Sam and take out Richmond.

I don't know how that tie breaker is gonna work since they didn't play each other.

[JSUBison]

I don't know how that tie breaker is gonna work since they didn't play each other.

It has to do with how SFA and NW State finish. A SELA fan posted this in another thread. IF SFA finishes higher SHSU wins. IF NW St does, SELA wins. IF both tied it goes to SRS.

[lionsrking2]

I don't know how that tie breaker is gonna work since they didn't play each other.

It would come down to whoever finishes higher out of NW and SFA. SFA, Sam would get it ... NW, we would get it. That said, there could still be a five way tie for first place if we were to lose to McNeese, SFA wins out and UCA beats Sam.

[Red & Black]

UNI's AD was on the radio saying the same thing about NAU this morning.

As for EWU's seed, I think the committee will unfairly reward CCU for beating nobody.

This brings up a great point. If CCU goes undefeated, are they the #1 seed? Crazy thought. Not smacking, I just have a hard time seeing them as an undefeated team in the CAA, MVFC, or Big Sky. I personally think NDSU is still the #1 seed and favorite for the NC for now.


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[32counter]

Don't see NDSU as a #1 after getting blown out by UNI today.See UNH or Coastal as #1 and #2.NDSU will have to travel to Durhan,NH or Conway,SC for a semi.Good luck if in Durham,NH.

[FargoBison]

Don't see NDSU as a #1 after getting blown out by UNI today.See UNH or Coastal as #1 and #2.NDSU will have to travel to Durhan,NH or Conway,SC for a semi.Good luck if in Durham,NH.

If NDSU wins out and is 11-1 they are a top 2 seed.

[Bison56]

Don't see NDSU as a #1 after getting blown out by UNI today.See UNH or Coastal as #1 and #2.NDSU will have to travel to Durhan,NH or Conway,SC for a semi.Good luck if in Durham,NH.
Why is it cold?

[dbackjon]

I think 5 MVFC teams is a stretch, but who knows.

I also think at 10-2 EWU is probably a 3 or 4 seed due to a narrow 3 point loss at Washington and a one point loss on the road to the team you have projected as the BSC auto-bid.

I know they will probably get it due to their weak remaining schedule, but NAU as the BSC auto-bid is crazy to me. I think there's 3-4 teams in the BSC that are better overall teams.

I suppose you're considering teams that NAU already beAT in those 3 to 4

[Red & Black]

Don't see NDSU as a #1 after getting blown out by UNI today.See UNH or Coastal as #1 and #2.NDSU will have to travel to Durhan,NH or Conway,SC for a semi.Good luck if in Durham,NH.

No way NDSU at 11-1 is a #3 seed. CC did not play an FBS team this year; NDSU spanked Iowa State. The committee loves FBS wins and will not ignore that. Assuming they win out, NDSU is still a top 2 seed, IMO.


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[SIUSalukiFan]

What happens if UNI loses at SIU next week and beats MSU to close the season to finish 7-5 (5-3)? Talk about a conundrum for the selection committee. I know that they've never put a 5 loss team into the field but if both NDSU and Illinois St are top 4 seeds and UNI is the only team to beat either can they really leave the Panthers out?

If SIU beats Northern Iowa next it would also have to win at Illinois State in the finale to finish 8-4, 5-3. I don't think a 7-5, 4-4 SIU team is in the playoff mix.

Now, would the committee take a 7-5 UNI team over an 8-4 SIU team come selection time? I know the NDSU win is huge, but the head-to-head matchup would have to mean something, right?

DISCLAIMER - SIU has to win two more games for this to even be a possibility. xlolx

[FargoBison]

This brings up a great point. If CCU goes undefeated, are they the #1 seed? Crazy thought. Not smacking, I just have a hard time seeing them as an undefeated team in the CAA, MVFC, or Big Sky. I personally think NDSU is still the #1 seed and favorite for the NC for now.


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CCU is the oddity, not sure what to think of them. My guess is that their schedule will come back to haunt them a bit, really not any quality win there to hang their hat around.

[lionsrking2]

The most interesting bracketology yet...MVFC moves up to five projected playoff teams....NDSU holds onto the top seed due to the strength of the MVFC and FBS win...

SFA at NAU vs 1. NDSU
EKU at JMU vs 8. Fordham


Idaho State at SDSU vs 5. EWU
SC State at Chattanooga vs 4. Jacksonville State


Richmond at UNI vs 6. ISUR
Jacksonville at Bethune-Cookman vs 3. CCU


Bryant at YSU vs 7. Nova
SELA at Cal Poly vs 2. UNH


Autobids(11): NAU, CCU, UNH, SC State, NDSU, Bryant, Jacksonville St, Fordham, Jacksonville, Chattanooga, SELA
At Large(13): EWU, Nova, ISUR, EKU, SDSU, UNI, YSU, Idaho St, Richmond, JMU, SFA, Bethune-Cookman, Cal Poly


Bubble: ISUB, Montana State, Liberty, NC A&T, William and Mary, SIU, Delaware, Montana, McNeese State, Bucknell and Sacred Heart


Bold/italic=team has has clinched

If we win out, very doubtful we'll travel, especially to Cal-Poly.

[Red & Black]

I suppose you're considering teams that NAU already beAT in those 3 to 4

I know NAU beat CP and EWU (without Adams), I just think they've benefitted from a very soft schedule. They also have some bad losses. Just my opinion, but EWU (with Adams), ISU, and MSU are all better teams.

Even without Adams, it took a horrible decision by Baldwin on 4th down and a couple of one in a million plays for NAU to beat EWU.

[Sycamore62]

If SIU beats Northern Iowa next it would also have to win at Illinois State in the finale to finish 8-4, 5-3. I don't think a 7-5, 4-4 SIU team is in the playoff mix.

Now, would the committee take a 7-5 UNI team over an 8-4 SIU team come selection time? I know the NDSU win is huge, but the head-to-head matchup would have to mean something, right?

DISCLAIMER - SIU has to win two more games for this to even be a possibility. xlolx

beating NDSU didn't help 7-5 ISUb in 2012. We also lost our way out at the end of the season.

[Red & Black]

CCU is the oddity, not sure what to think of them. My guess is that their schedule will come back to haunt them a bit, really not any quality win there to hang their hat around.

Agreed.


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[FargoBison]

If we win out, very doubtful we'll travel, especially to Cal-Poly.

Well it is all about bids at that point. That is one of those games where I have no idea who would bid more.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

CCU is the oddity, not sure what to think of them. My guess is that their schedule will come back to haunt them a bit, really not any quality win there to hang their hat around.

CCU will have earned a Top 4 seed if they win out. Finishing with a strong Liberty team to cap a perfect season will help imo. CCU has beaten every team that was put in front of them, often in impressive fashion. This was a team that was expected to be good this year and they haven't disappointed. I think they've done a great job handling expectations....

NDSU is a stone cold lock to be the #1 seed if they win out. In the grand scheme of things, all they lost today was a piece of history...

[tomq04]

Unless NDSU drops another game, they will be the #1 seed. book it!

[lionsrking2]

Unless NDSU drops another game, they will be the #1 seed. book it!

I agree ... NDSU is still the No. 1 seed, barring another loss.

[dbackjon]

I know NAU beat CP and EWU (without Adams), I just think they've benefitted from a very soft schedule. They also have some bad losses. Just my opinion, but EWU (with Adams), ISU, and MSU are all better teams.

Even without Adams, it took a horrible decision by Baldwin on 4th down and a couple of one in a million plays for NAU to beat EWU.


So EWU defense was affected by the lack of a starting quarterback? They were so bothered by Adam's absence that they gave up not one but two one in a 1 million plays to a third string quarterback?

[lionsrking2]

Well it is all about bids at that point. That is one of those games where I have no idea who would bid more.

We'll put in a very strong bid ... we did last year and will again.

[jmrepak]

CCU is the oddity, not sure what to think of them. My guess is that their schedule will come back to haunt them a bit, really not any quality win there to hang their hat around.
I think timing is everything...we keep hearing about our schedule because a lot of our opponents didn't live up to their expectations. However, undefeated will play a big role AND our last game should be against a top 25 (may be top 15 on AGS) Liberty. The outcome and performance in that game will ultimately determine our seed. For us, it needs to be an absolute statement game.

[rokamortis]

I think timing is everything...we keep hearing about our schedule because a lot of our opponents didn't live up to their expectations. However, undefeated will play a big role AND our last game should be against a top 25 (may be top 15 on AGS) Liberty. The outcome and performance in that game will ultimately determine our seed. For us, it needs to be an absolute statement game.

Plus the Big South is highly rated and we played strong against our OOC. In addition to Liberty we likely have wins over one or two playoff teams in NCA&T and SC State.
Although we haven't played an FBS (Charlotte should count somewhat since they have 75 scholarships, but not a big deal), we also haven't played a DII, DIII, or NAIA as many FCS schools have.

I'm not arguing for a 1or 2 seed (if we are fortunate enough to win out), just think people should step back and realize that our schedule, especially winning, isn't as bad as they want to make it.

[Bisonwinagn]

I would love to see EWU play CCU. It would be 85-82.

[jmrepak]

CC did not play an FBS team this year

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...and we won't for the foreseeable future (although UNC-C is transitioning and has 75 scholarships this year which should have made them tougher and didn't). We aren't an FBS team and have determined that the risk and reward is not worth playing them. That's what happens when you're coach's background is business. It is a pure business decision. I do hope that we fill that spot with a little tougher opponent from the Midwest area or equivalent. The decision was made at the end of last year so we filled a spot after last year, which is very late in the scheduling process, and could only get FAMU.

[Red & Black]

So EWU defense was affected by the lack of a starting quarterback? They were so bothered by Adam's absence that they gave up not one but two one in a 1 million plays to a third string quarterback?

I think you're missing my point. Our offense is completely different without Adams. Had he played, NAU would have never been in a position to make those plays at the end of the game, IMO. I know prior to this year we hadn't played NAU the past 2 seasons so NAU folks probably haven't watched him play much, but he is a game changer. Yes, I am speculating, but I feel pretty confident that EWU wins 9/10 with Adams playing.

Look, NAU has had a great season thus far. I just don't see them having the quality to do a whole lot in the playoffs. Just my opinion.


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[Professor Chaos]

...and we won't for the foreseeable future (although UNC-C is transitioning and has 75 scholarships this year which should have made them tougher and didn't). We aren't an FBS team and have determined that the risk and reward is not worth playing them. That's what happens when you're coach's background is business. It is a pure business decision. I do hope that we fill that spot with a little tougher opponent from the Midwest area or equivalent. The decision was made at the end of last year so we filled a spot after last year and cold only get FAMU.
If it's purely a business decision then CCU would be playing an FBS game. Does CCU make the $400K or more by scheduling a home game against FAMU? I highly doubt it. Many FCS teams that schedule one or more FBS teams are doing it for business reasons rather than competitive reasons.

[JSUBison]

I think there are similarities between 2014 CCU and 2013 Fordham and 2011 Lehigh as far as seeding goes. Fordham had 2 top 25 wins last year AND an FBS win and wasn't even seeded. IMO the Big South and Patriot are similar conferences in terms of perceived strength. We'll see what happens of course.

Edited to say that by no means do I think CCU doesn't get or doesn't deserve a seed. They do, just where exactly do you put them seeing how the committee has done things in the past.

[Red & Black]

...and we won't for the foreseeable future (although UNC-C is transitioning and has 75 scholarships this year which should have made them tougher and didn't). We aren't an FBS team and have determined that the risk and reward is not worth playing them. That's what happens when you're coach's background is business. It is a pure business decision. I do hope that we fill that spot with a little tougher opponent from the Midwest area or equivalent. The decision was made at the end of last year so we filled a spot after last year, which is very late in the scheduling process, and could only get FAMU.

I understand the reasons why CC doesn't want to play the FBS; I'm merely pointing out the fact that the playoff committee rewards teams that beat an FBS team. It's a fact. And in the case of NDSU, that will play a huge part come selection time...as will their recent dominance of the rest of the playoff field.


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[jmrepak]

If it's purely a business decision then CCU would be playing an FBS game. Does CCU make the $400K or more by scheduling a home game against FAMU? I highly doubt it. Many FCS teams that schedule one or more FBS teams are doing it for business reasons rather than competitive reasons.
We raised the funds through our athletic fund and staggered ticket pricing for games based on demand. $400k is only 10-15% of the profit made on the FBS games played in our area that we've been able to schedule. The FCS team has no negotiating power to receive a fair share of of the game and also no home return game to make gross revenue on our side. The travel cost will also exceed $40-$50k if you travel via chartered plane by the time it's all said and done, and the risk of injury is higher based on our experience when we've played Clemson, SCar and Georgia over the last few years.

Also, based on our attendance figures, pricing, concessions, etc. we probably do $250-300k per game, and almost all of our games are home and home agreements with no rev split.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I think there are similarities between 2014 CCU and 2013 Fordham and 2011 Lehigh as far as seeding goes. Fordham had 2 top 25 wins last year AND an FBS win and wasn't even seeded. IMO the Big South and Patriot are similar conferences in terms of perceived strength. We'll see what happens of course.

Edited to say that by no means do I think CCU doesn't get or doesn't deserve a seed. They do, just where exactly do you put them seeing how the committee has done things in the past.

Couple differences though.

Lehigh earned a bye in a 20 team playoff field and got a nearby, former league foe. That wasn't a bad deal.

Fordham was not a league champion. Plus, Lehigh was up and down after their star QB got hurt and Villanova struggled most of the year after they lost to the Rams. Those wins lost their luster by the time selection Sunday rolled away...

CCU would be an undefeated league champion with pedigree.....

[jmrepak]

I understand the reasons why CC doesn't want to play the FBS; I'm merely pointing out the fact that the playoff committee rewards teams that beat an FBS team. It's a fact. And in the case of NDSU, that will play a huge part come selection time...as will their recent dominance of the rest of the playoff field.


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Absolutely. I just wanted to point out the reason why you won't see them on our schedule going forward either. It's a decision we've made.

[Professor Chaos]

We raised the funds through our athletic fund and staggered ticket pricing for games based on demand. $400k is only 10-15% of the profit made on the FBS games played in our area that we've bet able to schedule. The FCS team has no negotiating power to receive a fair share of of the game and also no home return game to make gross revenue on our side. The travel cost will also exceed $40-$50k if you travel via chartered plane by the time it's all said and done, and the risk of injury is higher based on our experience when we've played Clemson, SCar and Georgia over the last few years.
You'll never get me to believe that playing FBS games leads to more injuries but regardless playing FBS games makes more money than playing FCS games and that can't be debated, especially guarantee games where you have to pay the opponent in order to not have a return game. CCU should be commended if they can make this model work because it's not easy to do without an FBS game. Many FCS teams need FBS game paychecks to balance their books but competitively playing nothing but FCS opponents is obviously a better model.

[Red & Black]

You'll never get me to believe that playing FBS games leads to more injuries

Totally agree. I remember a thread about this quite a long time ago on AGS where this assumption was basically debunked. I don't think we've come out of any of our recent FBS games with any more or any fewer injuries than a normal conference game. Injuries happen no matter who you're playing.


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[rokamortis]

If it's purely a business decision then CCU would be playing an FBS game. Does CCU make the $400K or more by scheduling a home game against FAMU? I highly doubt it. Many FCS teams that schedule one or more FBS teams are doing it for business reasons rather than competitive reasons.

There are different views of business. It isn't just about money, but in this case it is mainly risk vs reward. The risk (likely loss, perceived increased possibility of injury) was not seen worth it for the reward (money, slight chance at a win, playing on 'big stage'). So we chose to play another FCS team. We also don't play any non-DIs. The thought is this sets up our schedule favorably as all of our wins will count and hopefully have a smaller chance at a loss. It is a smart, strategic business decision focused on achieving our goals rather than a greedy business decision only looking at the financial bottom line.

[FargoBison]

I know for NDSU those FBS games are big for recruiting, kids want to play those games. If you can win one it is even bigger for recruiting, suddenly you get on radar screens that you might not have been on otherwise. I kind of think CCU is making a mistake with their logic but it is their schedule and they can do what they want.

[rokamortis]

Totally agree. I remember a thread about this quite a long time ago on AGS where this assumption was basically debunked. I don't think we've come out of any of our recent FBS games with any more or any fewer injuries than a conference games.


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I agree with you - but that's the perception our coach has. FBS teams certainly have more depth and can rest guys more easily than FCS teams can. But I do think it is a weak argument, I think the fact that most FCS teams lose FBS games is a better argument.

[Red & Black]

There are different views of business. It isn't just about money, but in this case it is mainly risk vs reward. The risk (likely loss, perceived increased possibility of injury) was not seen worth it for the reward (money, slight chance at a win, playing on 'big stage'). So we chose to play another FCS team. We also don't play any non-DIs. The thought is this sets up our schedule favorably as all of our wins will count and hopefully have a smaller chance at a loss. It is a smart, strategic business decision focused on achieving our goals rather than a greedy business decision only looking at the financial bottom line.

Business decisions aside, there are other benefits from playing (and beating) an FBS program, especially a P5. The national media exposure and recruiting benefits are intangibles that you can't put a price tag on.

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[rokamortis]

I know for NDSU those FBS games are big for recruiting, kids want to play those games. If you can win one it is even bigger for recruiting, suddenly you get on radar screens that you might not have been on otherwise. I kind of think CCU is making a mistake with their logic but it is their schedule and they can do what they want.

Or are kids being recruited by the wins and rings? I think the FBS recruiting thing is just as false an argument as you think the increased injury is. Kids want to go somewhere where they can be successful.

[rokamortis]

Business decisions aside, there are other benefits from playing (and beating) an FBS program, especially a P5. The national media exposure and recruiting benefits are intangibles that you can't put a price tag on.

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I agree. But what is the likelihood that an FCS team will beat a P5? There are rare examples, but the likelihood is very small. It goes back to risk vs reward. The money and slight chance at a win isn't as important as playing a competitive game, at least to Coastal with the current coach. Our former coach loved the FBS games and would use as a recruiting tool.

I don't really care as long as we are setup for success. We are just fortunate not to be in a situation where we have to whore ourselves out to the FBS games for money. When I see some teams playing 2-3 FBS games I just shake my head.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I know for NDSU those FBS games are big for recruiting, kids want to play those games. If you can win one it is even bigger for recruiting, suddenly you get on radar screens that you might not have been on otherwise. I kind of think CCU is making a mistake with their logic but it is their schedule and they can do what they want.

As a FBS alum and FCS fan I wish there weren't crossover games. If you're a FCS program you should be playing FCS games and likewise with FBS. If your athletic program relies on FBS money games THAT much then there's a fundamental problem within the institution and athletic department.

[Red & Black]

I know for NDSU those FBS games are big for recruiting, kids want to play those games. If you can win one it is even bigger for recruiting, suddenly you get on radar screens that you might not have been on otherwise. I kind of think CCU is making a mistake with their logic but it is their schedule and they can do what they want.

Yup. I know in our area, playing those games against the Pac 12 is big for the kids we recruit. The average HS kid may not know who played in the FCS semi's the previous year, but you can sell them on the fact that you're playing Oregon the next year. Recruits want to play in those kind of games.


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[FargoBison]

Or are kids being recruited by the wins and rings? I think the FBS recruiting thing is just as false an argument as you think the increased injury is. Kids want to go somewhere where they can be successful.

I can tell you that it isn't false at all.

[rokamortis]

I can tell you that it isn't false at all.

So kids are selecting the Bison just because they play FBS games?

[FargoBison]

As a FBS alum and FCS fan I wish there weren't crossover games. If you're a FCS program you should be playing FCS games and likewise with FBS. If your athletic program relies on FBS money games THAT much then there's a fundamental problem within the institution and athletic department.

Not sure I could disagree more, but that is just my take.

That said NDSU isn't playing FBS teams just for money.

[Red & Black]

As a FBS alum and FCS fan I wish there weren't crossover games. If you're a FCS program you should be playing FCS games and likewise with FBS. If your athletic program relies on FBS money games THAT much then there's a fundamental problem within the institution and athletic department.

Totally disagree. First off, the majority of the FCS relies on those games to balance the budget. Secondly, who doesn't love at least the prospect of an App State/Michigan, NDSU/K State, or an EWU/Oregon State? Ok, maybe Saban and Herbstreit don't...but those guys are douches. ;)


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[JMUNJ08]

and back to the brackets.....

I love the thought of JMU outbidding EKU after the debacle a few years back, getting an untested Fordham team in round 2 and then a potential payback game in the dome at NDSU? Sign me up!

[FargoBison]

So kids are selecting the Bison just because they play FBS games?

Playing and winning those games definitely plays a role in things.

[rokamortis]

Playing and winning those games definitely plays a role in things.

And you are one of the few programs who can do that. What about the other 98% of teams? They may lure kids in with false hope and then let them get slaughtered 73-10 and consider it a moral victory while cashing the check so they can afford to balance their budget, or worse - perhaps that's how the coach is able to fund his recent raise.

[JayJ79]

Don't see NDSU as a #1 after getting blown out by UNI today.See UNH or Coastal as #1 and #2.NDSU will have to travel to Durhan,NH or Conway,SC for a semi.Good luck if in Durham,NH.

UNI did alright out there in 2005 when UNH was a #1 seed. xcoolx

[Red & Black]

As a FBS alum and FCS fan I wish there weren't crossover games. If you're a FCS program you should be playing FCS games and likewise with FBS. If your athletic program relies on FBS money games THAT much then there's a fundamental problem within the institution and athletic department.

What's more, if it's purely about scholarship differential, then I suppose the CAA, Big Sky, MVFC, Southland, etc. should not be playing the MEAC's, NEC's, Patriot's, and Ivy's of the world?


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[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Totally disagree. First off, the majority of the FCS relies on those games to balance the budget. Secondly, who doesn't love at least the prospect of an App State/Michigan, NDSU/K State, or an EWU/Oregon State? Ok, maybe Saban and Herbstreit don't...but those guys are douches. ;)


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Well if they can't afford it then let them sink and fade away. You have to realize that 98% of FBS fans hate these game and could careless about some "little" schools financial problems.

PA does not have a public university that plays FCS football. Why? Money. Instead they play at the D2 level. They understand where they should fit in....

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

What's more, if it's purely about scholarship differential, then I suppose the CAA, Big Sky, MVFC, Southland, etc. should not be playing the MEAC's, NEC's, Patriot's, and Ivy's of the world?


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The CAA/Yankee and PL have a long history of playing each other.

You have to realize that not every team in those power conferences are offering a full allotment of schollies. How many do you think Nicholls is giving out right now? It's not 63....

[FargoBison]

And you are one of the few programs who can do that. What about the other 98% of teams? They may lure kids in with false hope and then let them get slaughtered 73-10 and consider it a moral victory while cashing the check so they can afford to balance their budget, or worse - perhaps that's how the coach is able to fund his recent raise.

CCU is not? I think you could, there are programs with less resources that go out and compete with or even beat FBS teams than CCU has.

[jmrepak]

CCU is not? I think you could, there are programs with less resources that go out and compete with or even beat FBS teams than CCU has.
We absolutely could. There are a lot of FBS teams we could have played tightly or beaten this year. Probably more than 60 or 70 of them. We've just decided to go a different route.

[JayJ79]

If SIU beats Northern Iowa next it would also have to win at Illinois State in the finale to finish 8-4, 5-3. I don't think a 7-5, 4-4 SIU team is in the playoff mix.

Now, would the committee take a 7-5 UNI team over an 8-4 SIU team come selection time? I know the NDSU win is huge, but the head-to-head matchup would have to mean something, right?

Don't forget that one of SIU's wins is against Taylor, an NAIA team (that is currently 4-6), so even if they finished 8-4, they would only be 7-4 against Division I opponents (7-3 against FCS), where as UNI would be 7-3 against FCS as well. It might come down to whether the committee put more value on the head-to-head win or the NDSU win. Of course, in that scenario it wouldn't surprise me if they left both teams out and picked a MEAC team instead or something.


beating NDSU didn't help 7-5 ISUb in 2012. We also lost our way out at the end of the season. One of ISUb's wins that year was over Quincy. Not sure if they were D2 or NAIA at the time, but either way, it left the Trees with only 6 D-I wins.

[dudeitsaid]

So EWU defense was affected by the lack of a starting quarterback? They were so bothered by Adam's absence that they gave up not one but two one in a 1 million plays to a third string quarterback?

You guys won. Your defense really through our backup QB off, and he is pretty good. He would be a starter on many teams in the FCS. And every game has it's idiosyncrasies. But I agree with R&B. We kick a field goal, and we are up by 8. You still make those two clutch plays and find our D out of position. But you still miss the two point conversion. And if not, it's OT, and who knows.

You won a game that for all intents and purposes you shouldn't have. If you played that way against us again, even with the same QB, we'd win that game seven out of ten times, IMO. But with Adams, it isn't even close. And just like the playoffs were not even close for NAU last year, this year will be more of the same. That's why, if you can pull out of the autobid, you won't be seeded. I'm not trying to smack at all. I could care less about NAU. I don't like, or dislike the team. But I don't think you guys are strong, and will likely not win a playoff game this year. No offense.

[rokamortis]

CCU is not? I think you could, there are programs with less resources that go out and compete with or even beat FBS teams than CCU has.

When discussing P5 - we would have a chance. You guys have proven that you can beat P5 teams. But it just isn't important to us to try to fight for a respectable score late in the game- like when we played SC last year. We played vanilla after the first quarter or so and just tried to head home without much of a fight when they went up by a couple of scores.

[frozennorth]

I would be very disappointed if ndsu or sdsu or uni or whoever would drop FBS games.

[CHIP72]

I only read the first 4-5 posts on the first page, but in all seriousness, can we stop having multiple threads with the same title? Either stick all of the bracketology posts in one thread, or title each bracketology thread with a different title (such as "Bracketology - 11/9" for this thread and "Bracketology - 11/2" for last week's thread; it could also be something different that clearly defines what content is discussed in the thread). Thank you.

[WestCoastAggie]

Should Coastal Carolina be looking forward to a number one seed, with the recent events? If you think so, A&T should get a really big boost since we were the only team all year that had CCU on the ropes and only lost to them by a point.

[rokamortis]

Should Coastal Carolina be looking forward to a number one seed, with the recent events? If you think so, A&T should get a really big boost since we were the only team all year that had CCU on the ropes and only lost to the by a point.

I think the overwhelming response here would be 'no'. 1) I still think NDSU or UNH would be ahead of Coastal and 2) people here don't respect our schedule / wins enough. The committee may throw us a bone, but I'm not so sure. I think we have some fans on the committee - or at least members whose team / conference would benefit with us having a high seed. Anyway, still two more games to go ...

[clenz]

So kids are selecting the Bison just because they play FBS games?
If you think kids aren't picking ndsu, uni, ewu, etc.. because of the exposure and proving they are every bit the equal as the fbs teams in their recruiting area you're dead wrong.

Also I'll try to find the study, but some firm actually researched the injury thing and found the rate of injury in fbs games is nearly identical to fcs/fcs games. In fact, they found fcs players more likely to be hurt against lower level teams

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[rokamortis]

If you think kids aren't picking ndsu, uni, ewu, etc.. because of the exposure and proving they are every bit the equal as the fbs teams in their recruiting area you're dead wrong.

Also I'll try to find the study, but some firm actually researched the injury thing and found the rate of injury in fbs games is nearly identical to fcs/fcs games. In fact, they found fcs players more likely to be hurt against lower level teams

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We'll just have to agree to disagree. There are so many factors related to recruiting that I refuse to believe that one potential FBS game a year is a significant reason why kids would choose one program over another. Other factors such as program success, fit with the coaches, academics, location, impact the player could have on team, expected amount of playing time, amount of scholarship money, etc. are likely bigger factors than a single game each season. What do you think the UNI players will remember more or is more important to the players: beating defending 3 time national champion 20-3 or losing at Iowa?

[kalm]

As a FBS alum and FCS fan I wish there weren't crossover games. If you're a FCS program you should be playing FCS games and likewise with FBS. If your athletic program relies on FBS money games THAT much then there's a fundamental problem within the institution and athletic department.

Oh good lord. Then there must be something wrong with 80% of FCS.

Our kids flat out LOVE the FBS games. A whole bunch of our players are from the West side, and for them, playing in Husky Stadium this year with friends and family in attendance, against kids that many of them played high school ball against was a terrific experience. We also recruit Portland/Vancouver and California pretty hard and playing at OSU, Oregon, and WSU, Cal, SJSU provide similar opportunities for our kids that grew up in those locations and exposure for the program for potential future recruits. It opens doors in high schools and homes.

And yes…the money helps drive the engine but it's not as if that means CCU has greater business acumen for not having to do it. It's a business decision either way. If we want FCS to increase it's relevancy, then programs like SUU playing two FBS may help them with stadium upgrades etc. which raises the profile of the program.

Back to seeds:

1) NDSU
2) UNH
3) ISU
4) Coastal
5) JSU
6) EWU
7) Nova
8) Fordham

[AmsterBison]

So kids are selecting the Bison just because they play FBS games?

Any FCS team can play FBS teams. Yes, believe it or not, kids do like NDSU because they beat BCS teams.

[IaaScribe]

So, just trying to figure this out. NAU wins the Big Sky autobid if it wins out, right, just because of that win over EWU? They didn't play either ISU or MSU, the other teams that could tie them. So both NAU and EWU would have one win against the other teams and NAU won the head-to-head. I think that's right.

[JayJ79]

Should Coastal Carolina be looking forward to a number one seed, with the recent events? If you think so, A&T should get a really big boost since we were the only team all year that had CCU on the ropes and only lost to them by a point.

didn't help UNI last year (they were the only team all year that had NDSU on the ropes and only lost to them by a point). And I think it is pretty safe to say that last year's NDSU team was more hyped than this year's CCU team (even with the usual ECB)

[CasualFan]

My read of CCU's decision to not schedule FBS is less about the risk than the reward. FBS schools get about $1M to play a single away game. FCS schools get about $400k. Sure, there are some highs and lows around those numbers, but I think they are in the ballpark. I think Coach Moglia would agree to an FBS game, but not at below market rates. And when he looks at market rate, he is treating it as a D1 market, not a market for FBS and another for FCS. In interviews when he is asked the question, he usually focuses on the pay. I think he hopes that other FCS will follow and drive the prices up. Of course, that's my interpretation of his interviews and definitely not a proven fact.

Also, Moglia's predecessor was let go for not enough butts in seats. (I personally think a certain "less cats, more dogs" video had more to do with it.) So I'm sure he would rather have 6 home games every year for attendance. Not that his job is in jeopardy...

Anyway, I agree that CCU hasn't earned a #1 seed. I'm hoping they can win their last two and land a #2 or #3.

[rokamortis]

Any FCS team can play FBS teams. Yes, believe it or not, kids do like NDSU because they beat BCS teams.

I won't rehash my previous posts, they are there for you to read - but NDSU is the exception when it comes to P5 teams and not the rule. Plus, I think you guys have a few other positive factors that separate you from your competition that recruits would likely weigh more than playing a single P5 team.

[PantherRob82]

Don't see NDSU as a #1 after getting blown out by UNI today.See UNH or Coastal as #1 and #2.NDSU will have to travel to Durhan,NH or Conway,SC for a semi.Good luck if in Durham,NH.

That worked out real well for UNH last time. ;)

[clenz]

I won't rehash my previous posts, they are there for you to read - but NDSU is the exception when it comes to P5 teams and not the rule. Plus, I think you guys have a few other positive factors that separate you from your competition that recruits would likely weigh more than playing a single P5 team.
UNI had multiple P5 wins and single score near wins in the last decade as well...

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[JayJ79]

We'll just have to agree to disagree. There are so many factors related to recruiting that I refuse to believe that one potential FBS game a year is a significant reason why kids would choose one program over another. Other factors such as program success, fit with the coaches, academics, location, impact the player could have on team, expected amount of playing time, amount of scholarship money, etc. are likely bigger factors than a single game each season. What do you think the UNI players will remember more or is more important to the players: beating defending 3 time national champion 20-3 or losing at Iowa?

Yes, those other factors have a bigger influence than one game. But for many, the opportunity to play in a stadium in front of 70,000 people is ALSO a factor, even if it is just for one or two games a season. Especially if it is an in-state FBS team.
Do the App State players from a few years back remember their FCS wins more, or their win at Michigan?

[rokamortis]

UNI had multiple P5 wins and single score near wins in the last decade as well...

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Ok, we'll put you in the exception pile as well.

[rokamortis]

My read of CCU's decision to not schedule FBS is less about the risk than the reward. FBS schools get about $1M to play a single away game. FCS schools get about $400k. Sure, there are some highs and lows around those numbers, but I think they are in the ballpark. I think Coach Moglia would agree to an FBS game, but not at below market rates. And when he looks at market rate, he is treating it as a D1 market, not a market for FBS and another for FCS. In interviews when he is asked the question, he usually focuses on the pay. I think he hopes that other FCS will follow and drive the prices up. Of course, that's my interpretation of his interviews and definitely not a proven fact.

Also, Moglia's predecessor was let go for not enough butts in seats. (I personally think a certain "less cats, more dogs" video had more to do with it.) So I'm sure he would rather have 6 home games every year for attendance. Not that his job is in jeopardy...

Anyway, I agree that CCU hasn't earned a #1 seed. I'm hoping they can win their last two and land a #2 or #3.

I think the money is a factor but he also has said injuries and even mentioned that he felt losing to SC hurt our chances of being seeded last year.

The last point was mentioned in this article: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2014/08/04/moglia-hopes-for-more-at-coastal-carolina/13579137/

At the end of the day he just doesn't like the FBS games for a variety of reasons. I don't agree with the injury stance but I am not in favor of playing the games, especially against the P5, and don't miss them. One benefit is we also aren't putting DIIs or lower on our schedule as many teams do to counter the loss. I'm happy with a full FCS schedule and I think it is best for the program to be successful in the long run. I also think it is important that we don't rely on the FBS money as some other squads do because it will be a tough day for many programs if it ever goes away.

[JayJ79]

not sure how many programs put D2s on the schedule to "counter the loss". More likely is that they play those games in order to get another home game.

[FargoBison]

not sure how many programs put D2s on the schedule to "counter the loss". More likely is that they play those games in order to get another home game.

Yeah for us out west, it is can be either play a D2 or pay a low level FCS school $180-200k for a game. Not many schools can swing that.

[rokamortis]

Yeah for us out west, it is can be either play a D2 or pay a low level FCS school $180-200k for a game. Not many schools can swing that.

Another option is to sign a home and home with other FCS squads

[PantherRob82]

Another option is to sign a home and home with other FCS squads

But for teams who draw well it doesn't make sense to give up a home game.

[clenz]

Another option is to sign a home and home with other FCS squads
UNI has done that... Youd be shocked at how few teams want to play uni, ndsu, sdsu, siu, montana, etc... on the road

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[Cocky]

Ok, we'll put you in the exception pile as well.
I wish we could schedule games against Iowa, Iowa St, Indiana, Kansas and Minnesota.

[Cocky]

UNI has done that... Youd be shocked at how few teams want to play uni, ndsu, sdsu, siu, montana, etc... on the road

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Don't feel bad we are going to UTC twice for one home game. It's the only way we can schedule games without crisis crossing the country. Limited funds create a huge issue with scheduling long road trip away games.

[clenz]

I wish we could schedule games against Indiana, Kansas and Minnesota.
Us too...

The only fbs teams that will touch uni are Iowa and Iowa state because we are in state, or teams half way across the nation/world (byu and hawaii).

Wisconsin did once, nearly lost, and won't return a call. Minnesota, Kansas, Kansas State, Illinois, etc... wont even negotiate with uni

Has jsu tried calling them?

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[Cocky]

Us too...

The only fbs teams that will touch uni are Iowa and Iowa state because we are in state, or teams half way across the nation/world (byu and hawaii).

Wisconsin did once, nearly lost, and won't return a call. Minnesota, Kansas, Kansas State, Illinois, etc... wont even negotiate with uni

Has jsu tried calling them?

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no idea
we did play Kansas a few years back but we still had Jack Crowe coaching so we sucked.

[JMUNJ08]

Can we move the last 10 pages (i.e. the whole thread nearly) to another thread? I keep coming here to see the discussion on the Brackets and just keep hearing the MVFC/ BS arguing with CCU about FBS games...

CCU wins out they will get a top 4/5 seed. Hampton from a number of years ago I think was a 5 seed without much meat to the schedule and may be a good coorellation (though i think the Chants are a better team). Now, how about the other 20ish teams????

[EKU Toss Sweep]

no idea
we did play Kansas a few years back but we still had Jack Crowe coaching so we sucked.

Found myself wishing that Jack was still on the sideline yesterday. That's a good staff that's been assembled at JSU.

[CHIP72]

UNI has done that... Youd be shocked at how few teams want to play uni, ndsu, sdsu, siu, montana, etc... on the road

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I think a lot of teams, at least in the East and probably the South, don't want to travel that far for a road game against a good team when there are good teams much closer to home they could play on the road or schedule a home-and-home with.

[CHIP72]

Can we move the last 10 pages (i.e. the whole thread nearly) to another thread? I keep coming here to see the discussion on the Brackets and just keep hearing the MVFC/ BS arguing with CCU about FBS games...

One thing I feel strongly about, and I suspect most people besides Fordham fans would agree with me, is that Fordham does not deserve a bye, at least at this point. The Patriot League is not good this year, and top-level teams usually don't lose 50-6 to fellow Division I-AA teams. My opinion would change if the Rams beat Army (even though Army is not a good Division I-A team that would still be an excellent win) and could change if Fordham loses by say less than 10 points and the game is competitive throughout. I do think a 10-2 Fordham that gets beaten solidly by Army but has also easily beaten most of its other opponents merits a first-round home playoff game.

[rokamortis]

What are the chances that Delaware or Maine upset UNH in the last 2 weeks? I know Maine and Delaware aren't the same as in the past but both have shown signs of being decent programs this year.

[CHIP72]

What are the chances that Delaware or Maine upset UNH in the last 2 weeks? I know Maine and Delaware aren't the same as in the past but both have shown signs of being decent programs this year.

IMO, not likely but both teams have a chance, particularly Maine because the Black Bears will be playing at home.

It should be noted that if Delaware finishes 8-4, they will have won at UNH and vs Villanova in their last two games of the season and would IMO have a pretty strong playoff case, notwithstanding some losses to decent but not real good teams earlier in the season (and a 62-0 shellacking against Pitt).

[rokamortis]

Assuming NDSU / UNH / Jax St / Coastal win out I think you'll see NDSU / UNH as top two seed and JSU / CCU as the next two. Ill St / EWU / Villanova / UTC rounding out the field with the possibility of Fordham bumping one of those teams. Everything else is so muddled at the moment it is difficult (at least for me right now) to see how the CAA / MVFC / and Big Sky will shake out. This will be the year of the bubble. The committee will earn their pay wading through all of the congestion.

[kalm]

Assuming NDSU / UNH / Jax St / Coastal win out I think you'll see NDSU / UNH as top two seed and JSU / CCU as the next two. Ill St / EWU / Villanova / UTC rounding out the field with the possibility of Fordham bumping one of those teams. Everything else is so muddled at the moment it is difficult (at least for me right now) to see how the CAA / MVFC / and Big Sky will shake out. This will be the year of the bubble. The committee will earn their pay wading through all of the congestion.

Agreed.

The YSU-ISUb game next week might be for an at large. YSU has the weakest resume and needs to win out, but UNI, SDSU, and ISUb should all get in if they finish 8-4.

In the Big Sky, ISU and MSU might also be a play in type game. ISU needs to get to 9 wins because of their 2 DII victories, and MSU's best win to date is over SFA. Montana, Montana State, and ISU could all be back-doored by an 8-4 Poly who would have the two quality wins against the Montana's depending on who those two finish.

So :

MVFC 4 bids
BSC 3 bids
CAA 3
OVC 2
Southland 1

[rokamortis]

Agreed.

The YSU-ISUb game next week might be for an at large. YSU has the weakest resume and needs to win out, but UNI, SDSU, and ISUb should all get in if they finish 8-4.

In the Big Sky, ISU and MSU might also be a play in type game. ISU needs to get to 9 wins because of their 2 DII victories, and MSU's best win to date is over SFA. Montana, Montana State, and ISU could all be back-doored by an 8-4 Poly who would have the two quality wins against the Montana's depending on who those two finish.

So :

MVFC 4 bids
BSC 3 bids
CAA 3
OVC 2
Southland 1

Is this at-large only or including automatics? If the former then you better figure out a way to get at least one MEAC in there.

[MR. CHICKEN]

What are the chances that Delaware or Maine upset UNH in the last 2 weeks? I know Maine and Delaware aren't the same as in the past but both have shown signs of being decent programs this year.

20016....NONE....NADA.....NIL.....ZEEEEEROH...UH-UH...xsmhx.........NOPE.........DOODLE-DOO-DOO!



sent from mah computer.....HAL

[TheRevSFA]

Agreed.

The YSU-ISUb game next week might be for an at large. YSU has the weakest resume and needs to win out, but UNI, SDSU, and ISUb should all get in if they finish 8-4.

In the Big Sky, ISU and MSU might also be a play in type game. ISU needs to get to 9 wins because of their 2 DII victories, and MSU's best win to date is over SFA. Montana, Montana State, and ISU could all be back-doored by an 8-4 Poly who would have the two quality wins against the Montana's depending on who those two finish.

So :

MVFC 4 bids
BSC 3 bids
CAA 3
OVC 2
Southland 1

This is at large but I think the Southland gets two. If SFA wins out along with SELA and Sam, I cannot imagine the committee turning away a 9-3 team with two top ten wins, and losses to K State, Sam and UCA

Also I think you're a few years off as MSU didn't beat SFA

[ValleyTalk]

The YSU-ISUb game next week might be for an at large. YSU has the weakest resume and needs to win out, but UNI, SDSU, and ISUb should all get in if they finish 8-4.

Win out to guarantee yes, but I think they would be in at 8-4. By going 8-4, they would have 4 wins over teams that were ranked when they beat them, compared to 1 last year. I guess I am beating a dead horse. YSU beat SDSU straight up in Brookings, so I just have a hard time seeing SDSU being picked over YSU, especially with SDSU's one win being against a D3 school.

[SIUSalukiFan]

Don't forget that one of SIU's wins is against Taylor, an NAIA team (that is currently 4-6), so even if they finished 8-4, they would only be 7-4 against Division I opponents (7-3 against FCS), where as UNI would be 7-3 against FCS as well. It might come down to whether the committee put more value on the head-to-head win or the NDSU win. Of course, in that scenario it wouldn't surprise me if they left both teams out and picked a MEAC team instead or something.

How can I forget Taylor? It is brought up every GD day when somebody wants to downplay SIU's schedule? :)

If my scenario were to play out and UNI was chosen for the playoff field over SIU I might just have a stroke. That's not disrespect to the Panthers, who are a very good team. But if you win the head-to-head matchup that should be a determining factor.

And, I have no doubt your MEAC scenario is a possibility, too. :)

[clenz]

How can I forget Taylor? It is brought up every GD day when somebody wants to downplay SIU's schedule? :)

If my scenario were to play out and UNI was chosen for the playoff field over SIU I might just have a stroke. That's not disrespect to the Panthers, who are a very good team. But if you win the head-to-head matchup that should be a determining factor.

And, I have no doubt your MEAC scenario is a possibility, too. :)
remember 08 when siu won the auto but uni got seeded?

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[SIUSalukiFan]

UNI has done that... Youd be shocked at how few teams want to play uni, ndsu, sdsu, siu, montana, etc... on the road

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ABSOLUTELY!

It would cost SIU at least $100,000 to get a FCS team to come to Carbondale for a guarantee game, and there aren't a ton of FCS teams looking for one-and-dones. They want home-and-homes. Hell, I think Tennessee Tech tried to buy us this year.

[SIUSalukiFan]

remember 08 when siu won the auto but uni got seeded?

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What I remember more is 2003 when we entered the season finale at UNI with a 10-0 record, watched you guys pull one of your key-jangling comebacks from a 28-7 halftime deficit to win 43-40 (we missed a 50-yd FG attempt wide right on the last play), not only lost the auto bid but got sent to Delaware in the first round of the playoffs for a world-class ass-whipping. :)

[knucklehead]

I still think Liberty should be in the at large discussion if they lose to CCU! Past experience and current discussion tells me they would be left on the outside again. I just don't get it, but I feel they have to win out. If a Big Sky or CAA team has Liberty's resume, they are in. But even with a much improved Big South, LU would likely be out. Take the rant FWIW.

[PantherRob82]

What I remember more is 2003 when we entered the season finale at UNI with a 10-0 record, watched you guys pull one of your key-jangling comebacks from a 28-7 halftime deficit to win 43-40 (we missed a 50-yd FG attempt wide right on the last play), not only lost the auto bid but got sent to Delaware in the first round of the playoffs for a world-class ass-whipping. :)

Then we got the same whipping the next week. LOL

[knucklehead]

Chris Lang's latest look has Liberty in and hosting at home vs JMU! I like it! He also has CCU as a #4 seed.

http://www.newsadvance.com/sports/liberty_university/chris_lang_blog/fcs-playoff-watch-two-weeks-out/article_b458d9d4-682d-11e4-89f8-e37f4e8880ac.html


This week’s bracket projection
FIRST ROUND

Bryant at Fordham

Richmond at Youngstown State

South Carolina State at Chattanooga

South Dakota State at Sam Houston State

James Madison at Liberty

Eastern Kentucky at Northern Iowa

Jacksonville at Bethune-Cookman

Montana State at Northern Arizona

SECOND ROUND

Bryant-Fordham winner at #1 New Hampshire

Richmond-YSU winner at #8 Southeastern Louisiana

SCSU-Chattanooga winner at #4 Coastal Carolina

SDSU-SHSU winner at #5 Eastern Washington

JMU-Liberty winner at #3 Jacksonville State

EKU-UNI winner at #6 Villanova

Jacksonville-BCU winner at #2 North Dakota State

MSU-NAU winner at #7 Illinois State

Liberty is my last team in this week, nudging ahead of William & Mary by a nose hair. I’m projecting Richmond to beat JMU and then turn around and lose to William & Mary in the finale, leaving them all at 8-4, but that would be the only quality win on the Tribe’s resume. Richmond will have beaten Villanova and Liberty. JMU will have the head-to-head over the Tribe. If you put William & Mary against Liberty, the Flames’ resume is just better with the win at App State and a win over a potential 10-1 Bryant team. ... Again, the MSU-NAU game would be OK since the teams didn’t play each other in the regular season. ... One 10-2 MEAC team will get in, not both. Cookman has an FBS win. North Carolina A&T has zilch on its resume other than a close loss to Coastal Carolina.

[clenz]

ABSOLUTELY!

It would cost SIU at least $100,000 to get a FCS team to come to Carbondale for a guarantee game, and there aren't a ton of FCS teams looking for one-and-dones. They want home-and-homes. Hell, I think Tennessee Tech tried to buy us this year.
I'm pretty sure we paid TTU 6 figures this year.

Thankfully UNI has a decent relationship with McNeese St, SFA, and now Northern Colorado to get some decent home games or h/h

[FargoBison]

I still think Liberty should be in the at large discussion if they lose to CCU! Past experience and current discussion tells me they would be left on the outside again. I just don't get it, but I feel they have to win out. If a Big Sky or CAA team has Liberty's resume, they are in. But even with a much improved Big South, LU would likely be out. Take the rant FWIW.

I just have hard time with Liberty being in right now, it doesn't help your case having head to head losses to bubble teams. That Richmond game is looming large right now.

[knucklehead]

Yea the double OT losses the last 2 years loom large in my brain all the time. I just think there are at least 2 quality wins and the Big South teams are all much better this year.

Don't get me wrong, I hope LU takes it out of the committee's hands and win vs CCU. But either way I think they need to be heavily considered.

[Red & Black]

Another option is to sign a home and home with other FCS squads

We have home and home deals with both UNI and NDSU over the next few years. It's definitely the preferred option, but you still need to fill the remainder of the schedule out. For most schools, that will almost certainly include an FBS game, and if you're out west perhaps a DII school in a 12 game season.

[jmrepak]

Chris Lang's latest look has Liberty in and hosting at home vs JMU! I like it! He also has CCU as a #4 seed.

http://www.newsadvance.com/sports/liberty_university/chris_lang_blog/fcs-playoff-watch-two-weeks-out/article_b458d9d4-682d-11e4-89f8-e37f4e8880ac.html
I guess we will see in two weeks but I will continue to argue an undefeated CCU should be top 3 until I'm blue in the face. I do like Lang's write up except he contradicts his MEAC section. He has SCSU as eliminated but has the winner of them and Chatty at CCU.

[PantherRob82]

Chris Lang's latest look has Liberty in and hosting at home vs JMU! I like it! He also has CCU as a #4 seed.

http://www.newsadvance.com/sports/liberty_university/chris_lang_blog/fcs-playoff-watch-two-weeks-out/article_b458d9d4-682d-11e4-89f8-e37f4e8880ac.html

Why would we go to Villanova if we won? We would go to Illinois State, MSU-NAU winner to EWU.

[rokamortis]

I guess we will see in two weeks but I will continue to argue an undefeated CCU should be top 3 until I'm blue in the face. I do like Lang's write up except he contradicts his MEAC section. He has SCSU as eliminated but has the winner of them and Chatty at CCU.

I think he is thinking they are eliminated from at-large but could win auto?

Edit: Now that I've read it, yes that's exactly what he's saying

[PantherRob82]

I think he is thinking they are eliminated from at-large but could win auto?

No, he is assuming SC State wins the autobid and only one of the other 2 gets an at-large and he gives it to Bethune-Cookman.

[rokamortis]

No, he is assuming SC State wins the autobid and only one of the other 2 gets an at-large and he gives it to Bethune-Cookman.

We are saying the same thing. They can't get the at-large but will win auto. From Chris himself: "First off, I put South Carolina State in the eliminated category because the Bulldogs won’t get in as a four-loss at-large. They are, however, in control of their fate in the MEAC auto-bid race having beaten both A&T and Bethune-Cookman."

[PantherRob82]

We are saying the same thing. They can't get the at-large but will win auto. From Chris himself: "First off, I put South Carolina State in the eliminated category because the Bulldogs won’t get in as a four-loss at-large. They are, however, in control of their fate in the MEAC auto-bid race having beaten both A&T and Bethune-Cookman."

My bad, I didn't read it close enough. SC State should end up with the auto baring a collapse since they beat the other two.

[WrenFGun]

Chris Lang's latest look has Liberty in and hosting at home vs JMU! I like it! He also has CCU as a #4 seed.

http://www.newsadvance.com/sports/liberty_university/chris_lang_blog/fcs-playoff-watch-two-weeks-out/article_b458d9d4-682d-11e4-89f8-e37f4e8880ac.html

I think this is accurate. Right now SFA/Liberty are the last-in/first-out.

[jmrepak]

I think he is thinking they are eliminated from at-large but could win auto?

Edit: Now that I've read it, yes that's exactly what he's saying
I guess that's what he meant. It's just confusing to me the way it's written.

[bjtheflamesfan]

Sometimes that may be the only option left. I believe Liberty was scrambling to fill one more opening after the JMU game was postponed, and the only team that we could find to fill that gap ended up being Brevard (course now JMU is making another trip to Lynchburg instead of getting a home game in 2015)

SPeaking of Liberty, I really think that the chances are much better to get an at-large this year than in years past, because of the success of the Big South in the non-conference, includidng Liberty's win over App State and a convincing win over the team in the drivers seat for the NEC, a ranked Bryant Bulldogs squad. With a win over CSU this weekend, the Flames will have 7 D1 wins, 0 "bad losses" and 8 total wins. As long as the Flames get the win next week and don't get blown off the beach, the band will finally be able to make travel plans for the playoffs (after being warned of that possibility every year since 2008)

[Bisonwinagn]

Sometimes that may be the only option left. I believe Liberty was scrambling to fill one more opening after the JMU game was postponed, and the only team that we could find to fill that gap ended up being Brevard (course now JMU is making another trip to Lynchburg instead of getting a home game in 2015)

SPeaking of Liberty, I really think that the chances are much better to get an at-large this year than in years past, because of the success of the Big South in the non-conference, includidng Liberty's win over App State and a convincing win over the team in the drivers seat for the NEC, a ranked Bryant Bulldogs squad. With a win over CSU this weekend, the Flames will have 7 D1 wins, 0 "bad losses" and 8 total wins. As long as the Flames get the win next week and don't get blown off the beach, the band will finally be able to make travel plans for the playoffs (after being warned of that possibility every year since 2008)

Liberty needs to hope Indiana St loses this week to YSU since they lost to them earlier in the year. ISUb could knock out Liberty.

[Houndawg]

Don't forget that one of SIU's wins is against Taylor, an NAIA team (that is currently 4-6), so even if they finished 8-4, they would only be 7-4 against Division I opponents (7-3 against FCS), where as UNI would be 7-3 against FCS as well. It might come down to whether the committee put more value on the head-to-head win or the NDSU win. Of course, in that scenario it wouldn't surprise me if they left both teams out and picked a MEAC team instead or something.

One of ISUb's wins that year was over Quincy. Not sure if they were D2 or NAIA at the time, but either way, it left the Trees with only 6 D-I wins.

If the unlikely happens and SIU wins out - and I think we have a better chance of seeing peace in the middle east this weekend - to be 7-4 in FCS play I think they would have as strong an argument as any bubble team. They would be finishing on a three game win streak against very good competition and be 3-3 against the Top 25. That would be a fairly strong argument that they're one of the 24 best teams out there.

[kalm]

This is at large but I think the Southland gets two. If SFA wins out along with SELA and Sam, I cannot imagine the committee turning away a 9-3 team with two top ten wins, and losses to K State, Sam and UCA

Also I think you're a few years off as MSU didn't beat SFA

My bad, it was UCA which still makes MSU's 8-4 position precarious.

Regarding SFA, you're right. With the way things finish up, I can definitely see 2 bids from the SLC. That being said, they do have a similar problem to the BSC bubble teams in that there are not many strong OOC conference wins for anyone in the conference.

Part of the issue is that SFA, NAU, Idaho State, and Poly started so far down the polls.

[kalm]

Is this at-large only or including automatics? If the former then you better figure out a way to get at least one MEAC in there.

This is my at-large opinion based on the teams that deserve be in the tournament, not necessarily who the committee with select.

[FargoBison]

Some more brackets....I also put them on the first page plus Chris Lang's bracket...

NoBowls.com
http://nobowls.com/images/week11.png




Sports Network
Eastern Kentucky/Montana winner at No. 1 seed North Dakota State
Jacksonville/Richmond winner at No. 8 seed Chattanooga


Cal Poly/Southeastern Louisiana winner at No. 5 seed Eastern Washington
Sam Houston State/Northern Iowa winner at No. 4 seed Illinois State


Bethune-Cookman/Liberty winner at No. 3 seed Coastal Carolina
Fordham/South Carolina State winner at No. 6 seed Jacksonville State


Northern Arizona/South Dakota State winner at No. 7 seed Villanova
Bryant/Youngstown State winner at No. 2 seed New Hampshire


On the at-large bubble: Idaho State, Indiana State, James Madison, Montana State, North Carolina A&T, Stephen F. Austin

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

^^^^^^^^^

nobowls bracket

Interesting....all 6 MV teams on the same side.

[clenz]

^^^^^^^^^

nobowls bracket

Interesting....all 6 MV teams on the same side.

Not really.

Closer to the truth than you'd think

[smilo]

That is one of the best brackets I have seen all year despite my displeasure at the seeding. Hopefully SC State loses to give Bethune that spot. Projecting forward, I think SFA and Idaho St fall out to give spots to create a wide open contest for those last two spots - W&M,NAU,McNeese,SIU,CP,SHSU,NCAT, and heck, even UCA/Bucknell in addition to ISU and SFA to compete for those last two spots. Could surely find faults with all those 11 teams so I won't do a breakdown with 2 weeks to go. YSU and JMU may be in that group too when they go 1-1 (moreso the latter, YSU only joins if they lose both). I'll hope for some more crazy with an EKU loss to Murray though I won't count on it.

I think Nova should be ahead of the 2, possibly 3 teams ahead of them, and would be counting on the top 3 to lose one (YSU, Delaware, Liberty...time to show up)

[hebmskebm]

Interesting more and more people believe it plausible that Fordham grabs a seed, barring they win out (and beat FBS Army). As the number of zero and one-loss teams drops each week, it makes sense they'd eventually get a look.

[knucklehead]

I like that both SN and No Bowls have Liberty in as an at large, but I will say again, I will be shocked if there is a Liberty/JMU game and it's NOT in Lynchburg.

[Sycamore62]

Liberty needs to hope Indiana St loses this week to YSU since they lost to them earlier in the year. ISUb could knock out Liberty.

I don't think ISUb and YSU make it so I don't think Liberty has to worry about that.

Now ow they could hope they beat Liberty and lose to WIU

[TheRevSFA]

I can't buy into SFA missing if they win out and are 9-3. Wins over a playoff team (SELA) and mcneese and the losses weren't to horrible teams.

Although the committee has to Lehigh someone...

[lionsrking2]

I can't buy into SFA missing if they win out and are 9-3. Wins over a playoff team (SELA) and mcneese and the losses weren't to horrible teams.

Although the committee has to Lehigh someone...
SFA is a lock if they finish 9-3 ... no doubter.

[Go...gate]

Any thought about a 9-2 Bucknell?

[robsnotes4u]

Any thought about a 9-2 Bucknell?

If they win the last two
9 Division 1 wins is great
1 win against an opponent with a winning record who is ranked 49 in Sagarin
Sagarin Ranking in FCS 43
Sagarin SOS in FCS 87

We know the Committee use some sort of SOS and ranking, whether they look at Sagarin who knows? The record is great, but not a lot of substance, IMHO.

[CHIP72]

In terms of profile, this year's Bucknell team is somewhat like the 2011 Georgetown team. I personally think the 2011 GU team was better (and had a stronger playoff argument, especially if there had been a 24 team field that season).

Bucknell to me is not a playoff team - in addition to a lack of good wins, they've had a lot of close games against mediocre teams.

[rokamortis]

I like that both SN and No Bowls have Liberty in as an at large, but I will say again, I will be shocked if there is a Liberty/JMU game and it's NOT in Lynchburg.

Why would you be shocked? JMU has a larger stadium so they could sell more tickets. Or do you think the guarantee from Liberty's bid would be so large that ticket sales be damned?

[knucklehead]

My theory is that LUs bid would be larger, yes. And the NCAA would love a new site.

[rokamortis]

My theory is that LUs bid would be larger, yes. And the NCAA would love a new site.

JMU's stadium is 25% larger so I'm not sure, but I've read that they've underbid. I'm not sure if the NCAA places a priority on new sites, it may be nice, but they'll be looking at the bottom line first.

[jmrepak]

My theory is that LUs bid would be larger, yes. And the NCAA would love a new site.
Those are two of the nicer stadiums in fcs no doubt. JMU and Liberty hold 20k plus and are on of the few with an upper tier. Either game would be well attended.

Out of curiosity, when was/is the bid deadline this year?

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

JMU basically would be a new site. Sigh...

Liberty is a private school full of coffers, JMU is a public school living off of student fees and bonds. JMU looks wealthy with its facilities, but it's all on loan from the Commonwealth of VA. The school should bid large knowing Liberty with its FBS aspirations is just down the road looking for something to prove. Somehow Liberty even pulled the wool over JMU's eyes with the 2015 schedule securing a home game vs. JMU when it should be a return game (head scratcher!).

[knucklehead]

JMU put that game off for a couple years and then finally scheduled it for 14 only to back out late to play for pay at MD. That left LU in a bad way. They let them out but the fee was a home game. Sounds fair.

I think the bids were due before the season and I'm sure Liberty's is enticing. Got to get in first.

[jmrepak]

An oldie but goodie...

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LQY3xH6FNNY

I actually like the Dukes and have a lot friends that graduated there. Their team has a great legacy and their stadium is amazing. Wouldn't mind scheduling them again.

[rokamortis]

Those are two of the nicer stadiums in fcs no doubt. JMU and Liberty hold 20k plus and are on of the few with an upper tier. Either game would be well attended.

Out of curiosity, when was/is the bid deadline this year?

November 17th - one week from today

[blackbeard]

Any thought about a 9-2 Bucknell?

Bucknell has to hope Bryant wins out for it to have any chance. If Bryant falls to SHU this week, SHU wins the NEC. If Bryant wins in last week they finish 9-2, losses to Liberty and SHU, with a thumping of Bucknell.

[CappinHard]

Win out to guarantee yes, but I think they would be in at 8-4. By going 8-4, they would have 4 wins over teams that were ranked when they beat them, compared to 1 last year. I guess I am beating a dead horse. YSU beat SDSU straight up in Brookings, so I just have a hard time seeing SDSU being picked over YSU, especially with SDSU's one win being against a D3 school.

You are forgetting that Sumner was still out. Along with that fact, you won by a thin margin to a team without their starting QB. I hope you don't think the selection committee doesn't take that into account.

[ValleyTalk]

You are forgetting that Sumner was still out. Along with that fact, you won by a thin margin to a team without their starting QB. I hope you don't think the selection committee doesn't take that into account.
I don't think it will play much of a factor at all. With your backup QB starting, you guys still went 5-1 with wins over ranked Cal Poly at home and UNI on the road! Knowing that fact, the committee saw first hand you were fully capable of winning with Lujan as your starting QB. With Sumner starting this year, you are 1-2, with one of those losses coming at Mizzou when he got injured.

I don't think you can have it both ways Cappinhard. You can't highlight those wins and then discount the loss to YSU because Sumner didn't start.

Despite all of that, I do believe you would have a good career in the political realm. Rick Weiland could have used your ideas last week.

[dbackjon]

dbackjon's slightly cloudy, yet fabulous Austrian Crystal Ball says:

Auto-bids:
NAU
CCU
UNH
SCSU
NDSU
Bryant
JSU
Fordham
San Diego
UTC
SELA

At-Large Locks: (if they win out. EWU is only one a lock regardless of winning out)
EWU
Richmond
Villanova
B-CU
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
Eastern Kentucky

At-Large Bubble (6 more at-larges at stake - my predicted 6 in bold)
Cal-Poly
Montana
Montana State
Idaho State
Liberty
JMU
YSU
ISUb
SDSU
Sacred Heart
Bucknell
McNeese
SHSU
SFA

Last Spot came down between 8-4 Montana/Montana State winner*, 8-4 Liberty, 8-4 YSU, 9-2 Bucknell, 8-4 McNeese, or 8-4 SHSU



*footnote for Idaho Grads - winner of UM/MSU will be 8-4 and on the bubble, loser will be 7-5 and out.

[CHIP72]

I think Villanova moves into lock territory as far as making the playoffs if they win 1 of their last 2 games, but I agree they move to the bubble and might be out if they lose their last 2 games. IMO, they need to beat both Albany and Delaware to earn a first round bye and round of 16 home game on 12/6. They'd need a number of things to happen to be a top four seed (i.e. in line to host a quarterfinal playoff game on 12/13).

[knucklehead]

All this stuff is at best a needle in a haystack until 2 more games are played. Lot of football left.

[KUlawJack]

I don't think it will play much of a factor at all. With your backup QB starting, you guys still went 5-1 with wins over ranked Cal Poly at home and UNI on the road! Knowing that fact, the committee saw first hand you were fully capable of winning with Lujan as your starting QB. With Sumner starting this year, you are 1-2, with one of those losses coming at Mizzou when he got injured.

I don't think you can have it both ways Cappinhard. You can't highlight those wins and then discount the loss to YSU because Sumner didn't start.

Despite all of that, I do believe you would have a good career in the political realm. Rick Weiland could have used your ideas last week.

If Lujan played at NDSU rather than Sumner, it would not have been 20-17 with under ten minutes to go in the 4th quarter. I'm certain of that. Now, could we have won against ISU-B? I don't know, but having Sumner in the game leads to good things for ZZ. Less 8 in the box when Wieneke and Schneider (who didn't play against YSU) are both on the outside and we have a QB who can throw it downfield a bit.

Plus, I'm pretty sure we've seen injuries taken into account specifically throughout the years. Per our beat writer, the committee does do that.

[ValleyTalk]

If Lujan played at NDSU rather than Sumner, it would not have been 20-17 with under ten minutes to go in the 4th quarter. I'm certain of that. Now, could we have won against ISU-B? I don't know, but having Sumner in the game leads to good things for ZZ. Less 8 in the box when Wieneke and Schneider (who didn't play against YSU) are both on the outside and we have a QB who can throw it downfield a bit.

Plus, I'm pretty sure we've seen injuries taken into account specifically throughout the years. Per our beat writer, the committee does do that.
Didn't seem to matter last year when YSU lost its top 2 quarterbacks to NDSU in the first 31 minutes of the game, forcing us to use a 3rd stringer which isn't even in the top 4 on the depth chart this year.

[jmufan999]

yes, Liberty would outbid JMU. i believe they're the only team that would outbid JMU this particular year (and would also be in the geographic region where bidding would come into play to begin with).

and unfortunately, that's what i think is going to happen. Liberty is going to throw every last dime to get that home playoff game they've been dying for.

plus side is that lots of JMU fans will make the trip to Lynchburg.

[CHIP72]

yes, Liberty would outbid JMU. i believe they're the only team that would outbid JMU this particular year (and would also be in the geographic region where bidding would come into play to begin with).

and unfortunately, that's what i think is going to happen. Liberty is going to throw every last dime to get that home playoff game they've been dying for.

plus side is that lots of JMU fans will make the trip to Lynchburg.

The trip between Harrisonburg and Lynchburg isn't that bad, is it? What is it, 2 hours on I-81, I-64, and US 29? Most JMU games at CAA opponents are a lot longer than that.

[Sycamore62]

If Lujan played at NDSU rather than Sumner, it would not have been 20-17 with under ten minutes to go in the 4th quarter. I'm certain of that. Now, could we have won against ISU-B? I don't know, but having Sumner in the game leads to good things for ZZ. Less 8 in the box when Wieneke and Schneider (who didn't play against YSU) are both on the outside and we have a QB who can throw it downfield a bit.

Plus, I'm pretty sure we've seen injuries taken into account specifically throughout the years. Per our beat writer, the committee does do that.

I sure hope they do with our RS Freshman qb in for our 2pt last second loss vs ISUr

[rokamortis]

All this stuff is at best a needle in a haystack until 2 more games are played. Lot of football left.

And even then it isn't entirely clear until the committee does what they do

[KUlawJack]

Didn't seem to matter last year when YSU lost its top 2 quarterbacks to NDSU in the first 31 minutes of the game, forcing us to use a 3rd stringer which isn't even in the top 4 on the depth chart this year.

How much time did Hess miss last season after NDSU? I believe he played the full game against us? Did he miss time before that?

Last season, you lost three to end the year. If we lose against WIU or USD it won't even matter.

If we lose against USD after beating WIU, you will find me in the bottom of a barrel of bourbon trying to drink my way out.

[Sycamore62]

How much time did Hess miss last season after NDSU? I believe he played the full game against us? Did he miss time before that?

Last season, you lost three to end the year. If we lose against WIU or USD it won't even matter.

If we lose against USD after beating WIU, you will find me in the bottom of a barrel of bourbon trying to drink my way out.

Less likely but IF ISUb beats YSU then loses to WIU (which is completely possible) I might have to spend a couple nights in the padded cell at the jail as to not hurt myself

[ValleyTalk]

Less likely but IF ISUb beats YSU then loses to WIU (which is completely possible) I might have to spend a couple nights in the padded cell at the jail as to not hurt myself
We did that in 2011. Beat #1 NDSU and all we needed to do was beat 1 win Missouri State to make the playoffs and we BLEW it!!!

[knucklehead]

And even then it isn't entirely clear until the committee does what they do
Well the good news is when Liberty wins on 11/22, you guys will still be in with us. Man I can't wait for this Saturday and then next Saturday. Then I will be able to decide if I care to get excited for Sunday.

[Sycamore62]

We did that in 2011. Beat #1 NDSU and all we needed to do was beat 1 win Missouri State to make the playoffs and we BLEW it!!!

I think we spent 2010,11,12 all needing to win the last game of the year to make a valid argument and pissed down our leg each year.

Last year we made a compelling argument to keep us out by only having 1 win...over a d2 school

[RabidRabbit]

Yes Western Ill is a good team but in a conference with great teams this season. They could steal one from either the Rabbits or Sycs, which could blow up both SDSU and ISU-B play-off visions.

[ValleyTalk]

Yes Western Ill is a good team but in a conference with great teams this season. They could steal one from either the Rabbits or Sycs, which could blow up both SDSU and ISU-B play-off visions.
Nearly beat NDSU and then a week later they came to Youngstown and knocked off YSU. They are better than their record indicates IMHO.

[BisonTru]

Yes Western Ill is a good team but in a conference with great teams this season. They could steal one from either the Rabbits or Sycs, which could blow up both SDSU and ISU-B play-off visions.


Both WIU and MSU could throw a wrench in the MVFC playoff hopes. With two weeks left there could be as few as 2 to as many as 6 MVFC teams that finish 8-4 or better.

[blackbeard]

Apologize in advance if someone has already posted this article in this thread or another. It's a complete recap of each conference that sends an AQ to the play-offs and what has to happen for each team still eligible to win the AQ. Also predicts top 8 seeds and other teams they project to win an AQ and At Large bids.

http://beyondsportsnetwork.com/blog/fcs-conference-championship-and-playoff-picture-119/

Lots of football left to be played!

[Sycamore62]

Both WIU and MSU could throw a wrench in the MVFC playoff hopes. With two weeks left there could be as few as 2 to as many as 6 MVFC teams that finish 8-4 or better.

There is no outcome possible from the MVFC that would stun me.

[WestCoastAggie]

Apologize in advance if someone has already posted this article in this thread or another. It's a complete recap of each conference that sends an AQ to the play-offs and what has to happen for each team still eligible to win the AQ. Also predicts top 8 seeds and other teams they project to win an AQ and At Large bids.

http://beyondsportsnetwork.com/blog/fcs-conference-championship-and-playoff-picture-119/

Lots of football left to be played!

This prediction is interesting. I do agree that the CAA, Big Sky and MVFC will get 3 at-large bids each, at least.

[Panther-State]

If Northern Arizona doesn't take the AQ, meaning they loses to either UND or SUU, do people really think they deserve an at-large. Honest question. Not sure I see it.

[BisonTru]

If Northern Arizona doesn't take the AQ, meaning they loses to either UND or SUU, do people really think they deserve an at-large. Honest question. Not sure I see it.

I don't think so. They would have three bad losses on their record. Of course, if the bubble isn't strong they may sneak in.

[Panther-State]

My thoughts exactly. They lost to South Dakota for goodness sake

[kalm]

If Northern Arizona doesn't take the AQ, meaning they loses to either UND or SUU, do people really think they deserve an at-large. Honest question. Not sure I see it.

Depends who they're up against. A couple of bad losses, but a win against a top 5-10 and more than likely a top 20 Poly who will finish 8-4.

[dbackjon]

If Northern Arizona doesn't take the AQ, meaning they loses to either UND or SUU, do people really think they deserve an at-large. Honest question. Not sure I see it.


Probably not. Will depend on who the other bubble teams are

[UNIFanSince1983]

Depends who they're up against. A couple of bad losses, but a win against a top 5-10 and more than likely a top 20 Poly who will finish 8-4.

I don't think any team that lost to BOTH UNC and USD in the same season would deserve to make the playoffs. They also only beat UC Davis by 2. I know they beat Poly (another overrated BSC team), and EWU (without Vernon Adams), but those are two terrible losses. The fact that they can win the autobid in that conference just makes me question the conference. EWU is really good, but tough to believe any of the other teams are for real.

[birdsflyhigh]

UNIFan, that's a point I've been thinking about for a couple weeks now. The fact that NAU could win the auto for the BSC really makes me question the quality of that conference.

I've also read many times on AGS this past few weeks about discounting the MVFC 23-1 FCS record because it was early season. Various apologists saying that loses to MVFC were early in the season and that those foes that lost to Valley schools weren't good early, but NOW they are hitting their stride. What people don't think about is that MVFC schools can say the exact same thing. You go through the Valley wars, and all those MVFC schools are battle tested on a weekly basis against a slew of some of the best FCS teams in the country.

[Sycamore62]

UNIFan, that's a point I've been thinking about for a couple weeks now. The fact that NAU could win the auto for the BSC really makes me question the quality of that conference.

I've also read many times on AGS this past few weeks about discounting the MVFC 23-1 FCS record because it was early season. Various apologists saying that loses to MVFC were early in the season and that those foes that lost to Valley schools weren't good early, but NOW they are hitting their stride. What people don't think about is that MVFC schools can say the exact same thing. You go through the Valley wars, and all those MVFC schools are battle tested on a weekly basis against a slew of some of the best FCS teams in the country.

Yes, the only teams that get better during the season, play outside the MVFC

[stevdock]

UNIFan, that's a point I've been thinking about for a couple weeks now. The fact that NAU could win the auto for the BSC really makes me question the quality of that conference.

I've also read many times on AGS this past few weeks about discounting the MVFC 23-1 FCS record because it was early season. Various apologists saying that loses to MVFC were early in the season and that those foes that lost to Valley schools weren't good early, but NOW they are hitting their stride. What people don't think about is that MVFC schools can say the exact same thing. You go through the Valley wars, and all those MVFC schools are battle tested on a weekly basis against a slew of some of the best FCS teams in the country.

Yes it is quite difficult to improve on 23-1 when you can't avoid your top teams in your conference.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Let me throw my hat in the ring this week.

http://lehighfootballnation.blogspot.com/2014/11/picking-fcs-playoff-bracket-11112014.html

[gotts]

Good effort with the first round matchups...

Just kidding, you might want to look at a map next time.

I regret clicking on your link.

[PantherRob82]

Let me throw my hat in the ring this week.

http://lehighfootballnation.blogspot.com/2014/11/picking-fcs-playoff-bracket-11112014.html

Why do you think James Madison and Liberty would be separated? For $?

[PantherRob82]

Let me throw my hat in the ring this week.

http://lehighfootballnation.blogspot.com/2014/11/picking-fcs-playoff-bracket-11112014.html

Not too many issues with who is in, but the pairings for first and second round seem a little off.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Why do you think James Madison and Liberty would be separated? For $?

Maybe. ISUb has to be sent somewhere. Maybe they get sent to EKU, I dunno. But if Richmond and JMU are hosting, no way a third Virginia team hosts a game.

I did struggle with ISUb placement and Liberty. Could flip it, Liberty@JMU, ISUb@EKU.

I guess another possible flip is Chatty/SeLa.

[Sycamore62]

Maybe. ISUb has to be sent somewhere. Maybe they get sent to EKU, I dunno. But if Richmond and JMU are hosting, no way a third Virginia team hosts a game.

I did struggle with ISUb placement and Liberty. Could flip it, Liberty@JMU, ISUb@EKU.

I guess another possible flip is Chatty/SeLa.

Ill help you a little. EIU vs ISUb higher bid wins, ISUb would probably have a higher attendance because EIU would travel better.

Winner gets ISUr

that's mostly just me hoping to make it and be able to drive to 2 games

[CappinHard]

I don't think it will play much of a factor at all. With your backup QB starting, you guys still went 5-1 with wins over ranked Cal Poly at home and UNI on the road! Knowing that fact, the committee saw first hand you were fully capable of winning with Lujan as your starting QB. With Sumner starting this year, you are 1-2, with one of those losses coming at Mizzou when he got injured.

I don't think you can have it both ways Cappinhard. You can't highlight those wins and then discount the loss to YSU because Sumner didn't start.

Despite all of that, I do believe you would have a good career in the political realm. Rick Weiland could have used your ideas last week.

Look at it this way (which is the way I believe the selection committee will look at it), SDSU has been so impressive without their starting QB, consider what they would have done without that misfortune, now that he's back, they are a better team than their record shows. You can statically derive the difference that Sumner would have made over Lujan. So I think that they do look at it both ways. It is impressive what they did without him, but you have to expect that they weren't as good without him, which could have factored into the loss to YSU.

Speaking of that loss, in the spirit of Rick Weiland (who I despise, mind you) it would be nice if we could "Take It Back". :)

Here's to hoping that the 2 best mascots in the country both get into the playoffs. Go Jacks, Go Guins.

[MTfan4life]

dbackjon's slightly cloudy, yet fabulous Austrian Crystal Ball says:

Auto-bids:
San Diego


San Diego needs Jacksonville to lose to Campbell at home. That'd be about the same odds of NAU losing to Incarnate Word at home.

[knucklehead]

I have to believe Liberty being #19 in the GPI will be a big boost to their at large chances if needed. In 08 when LU was snubbed, they were 10-2 but had a bad loss to Presby. They were still high in the human polls but had dropped to #38 in the GPI. No bad loss this year. (Thanks to Chris Lang for those stats). Anyway got to beat CSU this weekend and then.......

[rokamortis]

I have to believe Liberty being #19 in the GPI will be a big boost to their at large chances if needed. In 08 when LU was snubbed, they were 10-2 but had a bad loss to Presby. They were still high in the human polls but had dropped to #38 in the GPI. No bad loss this year. (Thanks to Chris Lang for those stats). Anyway got to beat CSU this weekend and then.......

If you lose to Coastal (the only scenario where you would need to be considered for at-large) then you would be a 7 DI win team. That would be very tough for you to make it when they've already said 8 wins is where they want all at-large teams to be in a 12 game season.

[kalm]

I don't think any team that lost to BOTH UNC and USD in the same season would deserve to make the playoffs. They also only beat UC Davis by 2. I know they beat Poly (another overrated BSC team), and EWU (without Vernon Adams), but those are two terrible losses. The fact that they can win the autobid in that conference just makes me question the conference. EWU is really good, but tough to believe any of the other teams are for real.

It's a thirteen team conference and they didn't have to play Montana, Montana State, or Idaho State so it sheds very little light on the quality of the conference. Granted, Montana, MSU, and Poly might be a tad over-rated, but they're decent teams on par with the 7-3's and 6-4's from other conferences vying for a spot and none of them have a bad loss on the schedule.

If anything, I think ISU and NAU are under-rated and will supplant the Montana's over the next two weeks. They're both locks at 9-3 with Poly, Montana, and MSU on the bubble and Poly being in better position with their wins of the other two.

Idaho State could be a tough out for someone if they get in. The offense is fantastic running and passing, and the defense has been playing much better of late.

[knucklehead]

Where did you see that? Besides, not sure there will be enough 8 win at large teams available.
That's why we need to win out though .

[JMU2004]

Important to remember that D2's don't count in the eyes of the FCS committee.

Really, no reason to be playing those when you can get an FCS lower rung team in.

[PantherRob82]

I don't seen any way that Idaho State gets an at-large with that schedule.

[knucklehead]

But when teams back out to play Maryland late in the game, you have to fill with whatever. Haha.

[kalm]

I don't seen any way that Idaho State gets an at-large with that schedule.

They're 15th overall in Massey with 17 SOS. They're a lock.

[PantherRob82]

They're 15th overall in Massey with 17 SOS. They're a lock.

Why are people putting so much stock in Massey this year?

They have to win out to get to 7 D-I wins. They are not a lock at all. They barely beat Chadron State. I get that they almost beat EWU, but seriously?

[JMU2004]

But when teams back out to play Maryland late in the game, you have to fill with whatever. Haha.

ya'll keep bringing that up, but JMU signed the game with UMD in the Spring of 2013. It wasn't exactly THAT late.

[knucklehead]

It the world of ooc scheduling it is. Anyway LU has said no more D2's after this year, but this year is what it is.

[kalm]

Why are people putting so much stock in Massey this year?

They have to win out to get to 7 D-I wins. They are not a lock at all. They barely beat Chadron State. I get that they almost beat EWU, but seriously?

It's not just Massey. They also pass the eyeball test. They'd have no bad losses and two quality wins over Poly and MSU. I think they might be the 2nd best team in the BSC.

Lock.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Idaho State is in playoff mode. Win, and they're in. Lose, and they're out. Committee should not take them if they only have 6 D-I wins.

[Sycamore62]

Why are people putting so much stock in Massey this year?

They have to win out to get to 7 D-I wins. They are not a lock at all. They barely beat Chadron State. I get that they almost beat EWU, but seriously?

i hope the almost wins count for us next Sunday

[Libertine]

It's not 7 D-I wins anymore, it's 6.

Check section 2.3.3 in the link below.

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamp_D1_Football_2014-15_Revised2.pdf

[Nickels]

It's not 7 D-I wins anymore, it's 6.

Check section 2.3.3 in the link below.

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamp_D1_Football_2014-15_Revised2.pdf
It's hard to imagine a scenario where a team only racks up 6 d1 wins and receives an AL bid...

[clenz]

It's a thirteen team conference and they didn't have to play Montana, Montana State, or Idaho State so it sheds very little light on the quality of the conference. Granted, Montana, MSU, and Poly might be a tad over-rated, but they're decent teams on par with the 7-3's and 6-4's from other conferences vying for a spot and none of them have a bad loss on the schedule.

If anything, I think ISU and NAU are under-rated and will supplant the Montana's over the next two weeks. They're both locks at 9-3 with Poly, Montana, and MSU on the bubble and Poly being in better position with their wins of the other two.

Idaho State could be a tough out for someone if they get in. The offense is fantastic running and passing, and the defense has been playing much better of late.I know that not 1 - or even 2 - game does a season make...


but when a team loses to USD (USD's only D1 win...and only D1 game that they were truly competitive in) AND UNC (who has wins against Houston Baptist, NAU, and 0 D1 win Cal Davis) in the same season it's damn tough to make a case for them to be "underrated" without it sounding very conference homer like.

NAU's wins this season are against
UC Davis by 2 (0 D1 wins)
Weber State by 7 (1 D1 win - North Dakota)
Portland State by 4 (2 D1 wins - 0 win Davis and 1 D1 win Weber State)
Abeline Christian by 6 (4 D1 wins)
D2 New Mexico Highlands - (3 wins on the season for that team)
EWU by 1 (good win, but it does lose a good amount of luster since it was a VA free EWU team)



There's no way to "underrate" a team with those results unless you have them bottom 1/2-1/3 of the FCS.


Let's keep in mind with Idaho States run who they've beaten as well (as well as the fact they only have 5 D1 wins right now):
D2 Simon Frasier
Southern Utah - 2 D1 wins (against 1 win Weber State and 3 win UND)
Northern Colorado - 3 D1 wins (1 win Houston Baptist, NAU (whom I've already covered) and 0 D1 win UC Davis)
Portland State - 2 D1 wins (0 D1 win UC Davis and 1 D1 win Weber State)
Cal Poly - this is an average win. Cal Poly has 2 average wins over the Montana's but the only beaten the bottom of the league again.


The resume for IdSU and NAU are not impressive by any stretch. Having said that they are PERFECT examples of what I've said about the Big Sky going forward and setting teams up for bids because of the sheer number (over quality) of wins.

NAU and Idaho State (even Cal Poly truthfully, though they did beat the only 2 "good" conference teams they played) avoid the top dogs of the conference and get to take advantage of the fact that the expanded Big Sky is so dreadful at the bottom. That weak bottom of the conference is going to be overlooked because it's going to mean there are 4-7 teams every year with 8+ wins. When the committee looks at D1 record and sees 8-1 or 8-2 against the FCS they will take it, no matter what. It's the same reason the stupid MEAC and OVC gets too many teams every year. The bottom of the league is so bad compared to, even the middle, that it's impossible for the the top half of the conference to not pile up wins.

It's a credit (and I've said this dozens of times since last off season) to the way the Big Sky expanded. They did it smartly. They created a major conference with a huge power shift to the top.

Compare that to the MVFC (I know...blah blah blah this is going to lead to stupid arguments from both sides) that has little separation (other than USD) between the top and the bottom. The middle extends from second place to about 7th or 8th place where anyone can beat anyone and it's not a shock. That's not that much difference than the Big Sky, but when you have 10 teams in the conference it's a lot tougher to rack up the W's compared to the Big Sky set up.

I love the fact that the MVFC wants a true round robin and wants 8 really good teams. I'm growing to hate the fact that the MVFC is taking that stand. We absolutely need dead weight at the bottom right now.

In the past the Big Sky hasn't had any real advantage over the MVFC in bids - you f***s can stop saying that now. I have a spread sheet to prove it. The Big Sky averages like 2.8 bids and the MVFC something like 2.3. Last year might have been a rare exception, we'll see going forward. However, if the MVFC wants to maintain it's current position the Big Sky will continue to get bids over the MVFC because they did it smart with the set up of their conference.

I won't think a 9-3 Idaho State team should be in over a 7-5 UNI team (sure some homer in that). They'd both be 7-3 in FCS play and UNI would have better wins. A 9-3 NAU team would be an interesting case to study. 8-3 in the FCS is impressive but a pretty weak resume. It will be interesting to see if SOS or total wins are rewarded.

- - - Updated - - -


It's hard to imagine a scenario where a team only racks up 6 d1 wins and receives an AL bid...
You're team did it last season

[jmrepak]

If you lose to Coastal (the only scenario where you would need to be considered for at-large) then you would be a 7 DI win team. That would be very tough for you to make it when they've already said 8 wins is where they want all at-large teams to be in a 12 game season.
I would love to see another Big South team in, but I'm with Rok on this one. I see Liberty being one of the first four out with another loss. I hope to give them the opportunity to find out though...xrotatehxxnodxxrotatehxxnodxxrotatehx

[PantherRob82]

It's not just Massey. They also pass the eyeball test. They'd have no bad losses and two quality wins over Poly and MSU. I think they might be the 2nd best team in the BSC.

Lock.

You're counting a win over MSU which doesn't make them a lock at this moment. I could see the arguement that they would get in at 9-2, but they are not currently a lock.

[rokamortis]

It's not 7 D-I wins anymore, it's 6.

Check section 2.3.3 in the link below.

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamp_D1_Football_2014-15_Revised2.pdf

You guys need to pay closer attention. Watch this video. And weep.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCotwOXYY44 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCotwOXYY44)

[MTfan4life]

Why are people putting so much stock in Massey this year?

They have to win out to get to 7 D-I wins. They are not a lock at all. They barely beat Chadron State. I get that they almost beat EWU, but seriously?

Aside from a close win over Cal Poly and a close loss at EWU, they annihilated every other FCS team on their schedule and you're judging them on that one win where Chadron scored the last 21 points? In 2006, Montana State made the playoffs even though they lost to Chadron State. Don't judge teams on their out of division games.

[IaaScribe]

The JMU-Maryland game had nothing to do with Liberty scheduling Brevard. Stony Brook leaving the Big South and leaving most league teams with a late scheduling hole did. LU approached Brevard about filling a slot in 2013, and Brevard asked for two games because Brevard was going to have to knock somebody off its 2013 schedule to accomodate. That's why there were two LU-Brevard games.

[robsnotes4u]

You guys need to pay closer attention. Watch this video. And weep.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCotwOXYY44 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCotwOXYY44)

I have tried, but people don't listen.

[Libertine]

Dude, you need to pay attention. He's not referring to 8 D-I wins as being a minimum for consideration. He's referring to 8 D-I wins being a minimum for guaranteeing UNI an at-large selection. Currently, there are only 32 teams in the entire country that could possibly get to 8 D-I wins and 11 of those will be most likely be getting autobids.

The NCAA rule is 6 wins for eligibility. Obviously, just having 6 D-I wins isn't enough to guarantee selection but one AD's comments do not trump NCAA bylaws.

[Panther-State]

You guys need to pay closer attention. Watch this video. And weep.


Wow that's probably been more helpful and insightful than just about any conglomerate of threads I've read over the past few weeks. Thanks for posting! Can't believe I hadn't seen it.

[MTfan4life]

You guys need to pay closer attention. Watch this video. And weep.



I think you and other people posting this video are putting way too much stock on this one man's words as being directly spoken from the philosophy of every member on the committee. They stated at some point in the offseason last year that the D1 win standard was being removed. I remember it being in the news here because people were nervous about NDSU playing only 11 games with an FBS and D2 game on their schedule and were relieved that their win total wouldn't be negatively affected by a D2 win.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Dude, you need to pay attention. He's not referring to 8 D-I wins as being a minimum for consideration. He's referring to 8 D-I wins being a minimum for guaranteeing UNI an at-large selection. Currently, there are only 32 teams in the entire country that could possibly get to 8 D-I wins and 11 of those will be most likely be getting autobids.

The NCAA rule is 6 wins for eligibility. Obviously, just having 6 D-I wins isn't enough to guarantee selection but one AD's comments do not trump NCAA bylaws.

8 D-I wins are not a guarantee for at-large selection. Nor 9. Nor 10.

[rokamortis]

Dude, you need to pay attention. He's not referring to 8 D-I wins as being a minimum for consideration. He's referring to 8 D-I wins being a minimum for guaranteeing UNI an at-large selection. Currently, there are only 32 teams in the entire country that could possibly get to 8 D-I wins and 11 of those will be most likely be getting autobids.

The NCAA rule is 6 wins for eligibility. Obviously, just having 6 D-I wins isn't enough to guarantee selection but one AD's comments do not trump NCAA bylaws.

He's a committee member.

He said 8 D-I wins in a 12 game year and dismissed the 6 game rule. Watch it again.

[rokamortis]

I think you and other people posting this video are putting way too much stock on this one man's words as being directly spoken from the philosophy of every member on the committee. They stated at some point in the offseason last year that the D1 win standard was being removed. I remember it being in the news here because people were nervous about NDSU playing only 11 games with an FBS and D2 game on their schedule and were relieved that their win total wouldn't be negatively affected by a D2 win.

When it is a committee member speaking publicly about it - then yes I do put a lot of credit in it. He's a current member and discussing form perspective. Now he may end up being totally wrong but I'm going to believe him over any anonymous AGS fan thinking their team has a good shot at 7 DI wins. I think a team with 7 DI wins will make it, but it will be the exception and there will be a decent (probably strong) case for it.

[knucklehead]

I love all the interpretations ...... I'll take the bylaws.

And yes, Lang is obviously right on the Brevard game. My bad. Got lost in my desire to mess with JMU fans. Haha

[PantherRob82]

Aside from a close win over Cal Poly and a close loss at EWU, they annihilated every other FCS team on their schedule and you're judging them on that one win where Chadron scored the last 21 points? In 2006, Montana State made the playoffs even though they lost to Chadron State. Don't judge teams on their out of division games.

Because clearly that was the only point I made.... ;)

[rokamortis]

Wow that's probably been more helpful and insightful than just about any conglomerate of threads I've read over the past few weeks. Thanks for posting! Can't believe I hadn't seen it.

At least someone appreciates it :)

But I agree, it was very helpful to hear it straight from a current committee member's mouth.

[PantherRob82]

Dude, you need to pay attention. He's not referring to 8 D-I wins as being a minimum for consideration. He's referring to 8 D-I wins being a minimum for guaranteeing UNI an at-large selection. Currently, there are only 32 teams in the entire country that could possibly get to 8 D-I wins and 11 of those will be most likely be getting autobids.

The NCAA rule is 6 wins for eligibility. Obviously, just having 6 D-I wins isn't enough to guarantee selection but one AD's comments do not trump NCAA bylaws.

That's not true. He was talking about all at large teams. He said the rule is 6, but 7 in an 11 game season or 8 in a 12 game season is much more likely. Then he went into discussing how that effects UNI.

[WestCoastAggie]

You guys need to pay closer attention. Watch this video. And weep.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCotwOXYY44 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCotwOXYY44)

xcoffeex Taking it all in.

[blackbeard]

You guys need to pay closer attention. Watch this video. And weep.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCotwOXYY44 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCotwOXYY44)

Great interview

[kalm]

I know that not 1 - or even 2 - game does a season make...


but when a team loses to USD (USD's only D1 win...and only D1 game that they were truly competitive in) AND UNC (who has wins against Houston Baptist, NAU, and 0 D1 win Cal Davis) in the same season it's damn tough to make a case for them to be "underrated" without it sounding 1) very conference homer like.

NAU's wins this season are against
UC Davis by 2 (0 D1 wins)
Weber State by 7 (1 D1 win - North Dakota)
Portland State by 4 (2 D1 wins - 0 win Davis and 1 D1 win Weber State)
Abeline Christian by 6 (4 D1 wins)
D2 New Mexico Highlands - (3 wins on the season for that team)
EWU by 1 (good win, but it does lose a good amount of luster since it was a VA free EWU team)



2) There's no way to "underrate" a team with those results unless you have them bottom 1/2-1/3 of the FCS.


Let's keep in mind with Idaho States run who they've beaten as well (as well as the fact they only have 5 D1 wins right now):
D2 Simon Frasier
Southern Utah - 2 D1 wins (against 1 win Weber State and 3 win UND)
Northern Colorado - 3 D1 wins (1 win Houston Baptist, NAU (whom I've already covered) and 0 D1 win UC Davis)
Portland State - 2 D1 wins (0 D1 win UC Davis and 1 D1 win Weber State)
Cal Poly - this is an average win. Cal Poly has 2 average wins over the Montana's but the only beaten the bottom of the league again.


The resume for IdSU and NAU are not impressive by any stretch. Having said that they are PERFECT examples of what I've said about the Big Sky going forward and setting teams up for bids because of the sheer number (over quality) of wins.

3) NAU and Idaho State (even Cal Poly truthfully, though they did beat the only 2 "good" conference teams they played) avoid the top dogs of the conference and get to take advantage of the fact that the expanded Big Sky is so dreadful at the bottom. 4) That weak bottom of the conference is going to be overlooked because it's going to mean there are 4-7 teams every year with 8+ wins. When the committee looks at D1 record and sees 8-1 or 8-2 against the FCS they will take it, no matter what. It's the same reason the stupid MEAC and OVC gets too many teams every year. The bottom of the league is so bad compared to, even the middle, that it's impossible for the the top half of the conference to not pile up wins.

It's a credit (and I've said this dozens of times since last off season) to the way the Big Sky expanded. They did it smartly. They created a major conference with a huge power shift to the top.

Compare that to the MVFC (I know...blah blah blah this is going to lead to stupid arguments from both sides) that has little separation (other than USD) between the top and the bottom. The middle extends from second place to about 7th or 8th place where anyone can beat anyone and it's not a shock. That's not that much difference than the Big Sky, but when you have 10 teams in the conference it's a lot tougher to rack up the W's compared to the Big Sky set up.

I love the fact that the MVFC wants a true round robin and wants 8 really good teams. I'm growing to hate the fact that the MVFC is taking that stand. We absolutely need dead weight at the bottom right now.

In the past the Big Sky hasn't had any real advantage over the MVFC in bids - you f***s can stop saying that now. I have a spread sheet to prove it. The Big Sky averages like 2.8 bids and the MVFC something like 2.3. Last year might have been a rare exception, we'll see going forward. However, if the MVFC wants to maintain it's current position the Big Sky will continue to get bids over the MVFC because they did it smart with the set up of their conference.

5) I won't think a 9-3 Idaho State team should be in over a 7-5 UNI team (sure some homer in that). They'd both be 7-3 in FCS play and UNI would have better wins. A 9-3 NAU team would be an interesting case to study. 8-3 in the FCS is impressive but a pretty weak resume. It will be interesting to see if SOS or total wins are rewarded

1) Guilty! But I'm OK with people being homers. You know more about your own conference and can dispel some of the myths. For me it goes back to the days when the Big Sky was the most bashed conference on national message boards and East Coast bias (yes, it really exists).

2) Teams can and do improve. I'm not saying that NAU deserves a top 10 ranking, but placing them behind Montana, Cal Poly, Bryant, BCU, Harvard, and Montana State is under-rating them a bit.

3) Huh? NAU played EWU and Poly. ISU will have played EWU, Poly, and MSU. Poly played UM, MSU, ISU, and NAU. Sure, NAU has a slightly easier schedule than the rest, but how have any of them avoided playing the top dogs?

4) I get your point, but the bottom of the Big Sky is light years ahead of the bottom of the MEAC and OVC. There's more parity than you think with teams like Idaho State having enough talent to turn things around quickly. Then there's the scheduling issue where a team like SUU who has decent talent opens the season with Nevada, SELA, SDSU, and Fresno and also has EWU, Montana, NAU, Poly, and Idaho State on the remainder of their schedule. One could point out that just like UNI, they have no bad losses. :DDavis has a similar schedule. Not saying they would be world beaters with EKU's or SCSU's schedule, but I bet they'd be at least over .500. So it does play a role.

5) I'm not even arguing that NAU's two poor losses won't hurt. In fact, if you look at potential bubble teams like SFA, McNeese, SELA, EKU, Richmond, W&M, ISUr, SDSU, UNI, Delaware, JMU, Montana, Montana State, Poly, and Liberty, while several have a bad loss (e.g. Richmond to Maine), none of them have two. That being said NAU's two quality wins are equal to some of these teams, and much better than others. So it boils down to early losses, vs. quality wins, vs. SoS.

When I'm defending NAU and ISU, it's more against the talk of the MEAC and Bucknell getting at-large consideration the anything else although UNI at 7-5 does raise a really interesting scenario.

[clenz]

1) Guilty! But I'm OK with people being homers. You know more about your own conference and can dispel some of the myths. For me it goes back to the days when the Big Sky was the most bashed conference on national message boards and East Coast bias (yes, it really exists).

2) Teams can and do improve. I'm not saying that NAU deserves a top 10 ranking, but placing them behind Montana, Cal Poly, Bryant, BCU, Harvard, and Montana State is under-rating them a bit.

3) Huh? NAU played EWU and Poly. ISU will have played EWU, Poly, and MSU. Poly played UM, MSU, ISU, and NAU. Sure, NAU has a slightly easier schedule than the rest, but how have any of them avoided playing the top dogs?

4) I get your point, but the bottom of the Big Sky is light years ahead of the bottom of the MEAC and OVC. There's more parity than you think with teams like Idaho State having enough talent to turn things around quickly. Then there's the scheduling issue where a team like SUU who has decent talent opens the season with Nevada, SELA, SDSU, and Fresno and also has EWU, Montana, NAU, Poly, and Idaho State on the remainder of their schedule. One could point out that just like UNI, they have no bad losses. :DDavis has a similar schedule. Not saying they would be world beaters with EKU's or SCSU's schedule, but I bet they'd be at least over .500. So it does play a role.

5) I'm not even arguing that NAU's two poor losses won't hurt. In fact, if you look at potential bubble teams like SFA, McNeese, SELA, EKU, Richmond, W&M, ISUr, SDSU, UNI, Delaware, JMU, Montana, Montana State, Poly, and Liberty, while several have a bad loss (e.g. Richmond to Maine), none of them have two. That being said NAU's two quality wins are equal to some of these teams, and much better than others. So it boils down to early losses, vs. quality wins, vs. SoS.

When I'm defending NAU and ISU, it's more against the talk of the MEAC and Bucknell getting at-large consideration the anything else although UNI at 7-5 does raise a really interesting scenario.
I can agree with that.

I don't see any reason the MEAC/Patriot/OVC should ever get more than 2 unless there is something strange. They just haven't proven anything/to be on the same level.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I can agree with that.

I don't see any reason the MEAC/Patriot/OVC should ever get more than 2 unless there is something strange. They just haven't proven anything/to be on the same level.

Trust me when I say fans of the Patriot League would be happy with 2.

[Libertine]

That's not true. He was talking about all at large teams. He said the rule is 6, but 7 in an 11 game season or 8 in a 12 game season is much more likely. Then he went into discussing how that effects UNI.
You and I are making the same point believe it or not. 7 or 8 wins make it obviously more likely for at-large selection but he is not re-defining the minimum standard for all FCS teams. He is describing what would constitute a solid case for his own team.

[clenz]

You and I are making the same point believe it or not. 7 or 8 wins make it obviously more likely for at-large selection but he is not re-defining the minimum standard for all FCS teams. He is describing what would constitute a solid case for his own team.
He was not talking about UNI at that point.

The discussion on UNI came after that.

[WestCoastAggie]

Trust me when I say fans of the Patriot League would be happy with 2.

And MEACFans would be happy with A&T and their offense in the fold.

[PantherRob82]

I'm not saying the Patriot never deserves two, but they don't this year. The MEAC probably doesn't deserve 2, but I think they get it. I'm not sure if EKU deserves a 2nd bid from the OVC. The FBS win says yes, but the TN Tech loss says no. On top of that, they end the season with Florida.

- - - Updated - - -


You and I are making the same point believe it or not. 7 or 8 wins make it obviously more likely for at-large selection but he is not re-defining the minimum standard for all FCS teams. He is describing what would constitute a solid case for his own team.

The 7 or 8 wins was not about UNI, so we are not making the same point.

[rokamortis]

He is describing what would constitute a solid case for his own team.

He is discussing the FCS In general.

Sidenote: UNI has to be at the top of the list if any 7 DI teams are selected. I think they'll be the exception.

[Sycamore62]

I think the MVFC will be clearer Sunday. I dont think that will be the case for many of the other conferences

[Bison56]

And MEACFans would be happy with A&T and their offense in the fold.

Why?

[knucklehead]

This argument is dumb. No matter what he says, 1 committee member's statement does not change the underlying bylaws. That just dumb. Can we move on?

I will say again, if Liberty beats CSU and then loses to CCU they have a very solid chance at an at large. I know a lot of folks want to discount the App win, but whether you like it or not, it's an FBS win. That combined with a high SOS, good win vs ranked and very good Bryant, good GPI ranking, no bad losses, have Liberty in a good spot.

However, I still say win out and bypass the committee to be sure. Stranger things have happenend to LU.

[FargoBison]

Not sure why there is so much NAU talk, if they win out they get the auto and if they lose they are done. That would give them a third bad loss, likely one bad loss too many.

ISU is in the same spot, they need to win out otherwise they are done. If they win out they fully deserve to be in even with two non-DI games.

[WestCoastAggie]

Why?

With the way the Aggies are playing right now, they are the best shot at a MEAC team winning playoff games. Speaking of which, A&T is showcasing a bit of the items the committee is looking for in At-Large teams at this point of the season.

[KUlawJack]

He is discussing the FCS In general.

Sidenote: UNI has to be at the top of the list if any 7 DI teams are selected. I think they'll be the exception.

If we end up 8-4 (two wins to go), we will only have 7 DI wins. I've been wringing my hands all over about this making me nervous.

[WrenFGun]

8 D-I wins are not a guarantee for at-large selection. Nor 9. Nor 10.

They are from a major conference.

[unigriff]

liberty without the auto i think liberty is out

[robsnotes4u]

Dude, you need to pay attention. He's not referring to 8 D-I wins as being a minimum for consideration. He's referring to 8 D-I wins being a minimum for guaranteeing UNI an at-large selection. Currently, there are only 32 teams in the entire country that could possibly get to 8 D-I wins and 11 of those will be most likely be getting autobids.

The NCAA rule is 6 wins for eligibility. Obviously, just having 6 D-I wins isn't enough to guarantee selection but one AD's comments do not trump NCAA bylaws.

This segment of PantherSportsTalk is brought to you by CFU, the power of service.


A popular phrase among college coaches, is that you never want to be on the bubble and leave it up to the committee to decide if you're in or if you're left out. So what does it take to get into the FCS playoffs? UNI Athletic Director Troy Dannen is a member of the FCS playoff committee and he had some unique insight into the selection process.


We have a conference call, we've had three through the first four weeks of the season, we will have starting the second week in October, we will have conference calls every week, really, 2 a week, once with our regional representatives and then once as a national committee and then we basically vote each week.


The committee, we get all the input from around the country and then we'll do our own top 25. And the top 16 of which would be the qualifiers outside of the automatic leagues. It's really number of, it comes down to the number of wins, and it comes down to number of division one wins and an FBS win helps you but in our case last year it doesn't help when you finish seventh in your conference those FBS wins don't make a difference.


So, those FBS wins may tilt at the end of the day over an FCS win but frankly last year a lot of the FBS wins were with Georgia State who was a team that wasn't as good as half the teams in Missouri rallies so some times that you've been questioning those wins. But it's that number of wins that, that number of division one wins you get in an eight, eight in a twelve game year, seven in a eleven game year are really the absolute minimums.


Now, by Rule Six you have to consider, but it's going to be hard when you get down below seven or eight to really be on the table. But you need to be playing well at the end of the year, you need to be showing in the polls and in the committee ratings that you are moving up maybe tenth last week, and then ninth and then eighth and training in the right direction.


For us this year though the meet of our conference schedules' in a month of November. So we will have a chance to make a lot of hay, we will have a chance to elevate ourselves very high in the committee or we are going to have to explain. If we don't have a good run in November, I will be explaining because while I don't get a vote for Northern Iowa because I'm the valley rep, I will speak about Northern Iowa.


I'll try to watch at least a quarter. At this point in the season, I'm watching at least a quarter of every team in the top 25, and as we get later in the year, I'll try to watch the last three weeks, I'll try to watch a full game of those last, maybe ten teams that I think are on the bubble and I think at that point then I'll have a pretty good handle on seeding just from the input from the regional reps, but I want to use my own eye test on those last four teams in the field.


And I think going into it, I think most of us know 20 of the 24 schools that are going to be in and the bulk of our time is on those last four schools and then seeding. We spend a lot of time on seeding and place a value, a real high value on who you beat when it comes to the seeding process.


When it comes to scheduling, when it comes to what are the things the committee is looking for, and I think those things change from committee to committee but some things will remain consistent, and one of those things is always we need to win seven games, seven division one games.


We really need to win eight, we really pushed this year to get at eighth. Ensure ourselves of and eighth win by getting that twelfth game. I didn't want to go into a room seven and four, when I know the difference between seven and four and eight and four, and so I think just that committee experiences one of the reasons we pushed just hard as we pushed to get that last game.


The UNI football team needs your continued support this season and we will expect to see you in the dome next Saturday as Panthers face MBFC opponents South Dakota State in a very important game.

[dbackjon]

Important to remember that D2's don't count in the eyes of the FCS committee.

Really, no reason to be playing those when you can get an FCS lower rung team in.


That is easy for you east coasters to say.

There is no one else to play in the West. Not counting DIIs, but counting St. Francis is a crock of crap.

[CasualFan]

There is no one else to play in the West.
I've heard this, but it never sunk in until I looked at this map:
http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/fcs-team-map/

Wow.

[NoDak 4 Ever]

That is easy for you east coasters to say.

There is no one else to play in the West. Not counting DIIs, but counting St. Francis is a crock of crap.

I don't think it's a East/West thing, it's still a conference thing.

Of the 21 individual national champions over 35 years, all but 3 teams have been in the MVFC/Gateway, BSC, CAA, or SoCon

Eastern Kentucky in 1979 and 1982
FAMU in 1978
NE Louisiana in 1987

So essentially in the last 27 years nobody from outside the 4 power conferences has won. Perhaps there a bit more rigor in the conference schedules that makes teams better.

[rokamortis]

That is easy for you east coasters to say.

There is no one else to play in the West. Not counting DIIs, but counting St. Francis is a crock of crap.

No one says you have to have 6 home games. Sign some home and homes. Pay some guarantee money. You have options.