Big Sky Power Rankings 11-3

[JALMOND]

Here it is November and things are still a mess in the Big Sky. Surprising teams competing and beating good teams and still good football left to play. One thing for sure, whoever wins the conference title will surely have earned it. Hang on everyone, things are going to get crazy. Here are this week's power rankings in the Big Sky (last week's rankings in parenthesis). As usual, all are my opinion only. This is starting to get good.

1. Eastern Washington (1)---Nice recovery for the Eagles last week at home against North Dakota after losing a sure win the week before at Northern Arizona. Have they found their groove again? This week, things start to get difficult as Montana comes to town.

2. Cal Poly (3)---Anyone remember how the Mustangs started the season? They are surging right now, having turned back Montana State last weekend, coupled with their win the week before against Montana. Both were at home, which may make this weekend's game at Idaho State the most difficult one so far.

3. Montana State (1)---The Bobcats had a chance to take charge of the conference race last weekend only to far short at Cal Poly. Eager to get back playing at top level, this weekend they bring in self-destructing Portland State to town.

4. Idaho State (4)---The Bengals train kept a-rolling last week, barreling through Portland State with only the slightest hint at slowing down. They return home this weekend against one of the top teams in the conference, Cal Poly, in what is a top conference game all of a sudden.

5. Montana (6)---The Grizzlies came home last weekend and dispatched Sacramento State to stay in the playoff hunt. Still, they have shown that they are a different team on the road and that could hurt them this weekend as they go to Eastern Washington.

6. Northern Arizona (5)---As good as the Lumberjacks have been at home, they have had some strange performances on the road, like last week's win at Weber State. This weekend, however, they return home to face lowly UC-Davis.

7. Sacramento State (7)---The Hornets tried to stay on pace last weekend at Montana, but still came up on the short end. This weekend, they come home to face another strong but struggling team in Southern Utah.

8. Southern Utah (8)---The Thunderbirds drew the short straw last weekend and rested up in the middle of conference season. They return this weekend, heading out to face Sacramento State on the road, still trying to ruin someone's season.

9. Northern Colorado (11)---The Bears headed out on the road and got a strong conference win at (wait for it)...UC-Davis. Well, it is still a conference win on the road and they get an extra week to savor it.

10. Portland State (9)---A home loss for the Vikings last weekend against Idaho State, but they can take solace in the fact that they held the Bengals to what is their lowest point total in the conference so far. Not that Montana State, their next opponent, will really care about that.

11. North Dakota (10)---Did the No-Names really show up at any time last week for their game at Eastern Washington? The sad truth was that they were done early. They head home this weekend and bring in winless Weber State for a good shot at a win.

12. Weber State (12)---Once again, so close yet can't finish the deal. The Wildcats had Northern Arizona on the ropes, yet could not make the plays down the stretch and still find themselves winless. Another good chance may be this weekend at North Dakota, the same old story.

13. UC-Davis (13)---The Aggies last week had a great chance to get their first FCS win last week with Northern Colorado coming to town, yet they could not get over the hump. Things get more difficult this weekend, having to go to Northern Arizona this weekend.

RECAP: 1-6 bunched together, 7-8 fading, 9-11 trying to keep up, 12 struggling and 13 off the pace.

[wapiti]

A couple of teams were eliminated from playoff consideration and one qualified.
The criteria I am using is 7 Div 1 wins to earn consideration to be in the playoffs.
Sub D1 wins will be considered, but to keep this simple I am using the 7 Div 1 win model.

1. Eastern Washington In. One more win will get them in for sure. Two more for a seeding. UM, @PSU

2. Cal Poly Needs 1 more win. @ISU, UC Davis, @San Diego

3. Montana State Needs 2 more wins. PSU, ISU, @UM

4. Idaho State Needs 3 more wins. CP, @MSU, Weber

5. Montana Needs 2 more wins. @EWU, @SUU, MSU

6. Northern Arizona Needs 2 more wins. UC Davis, @UND, SUU

7. Sacramento State Out

8. Southern Utah Out

9. Northern Colorado Out

10. Portland State Out

11. North Dakota Out

12. Weber State Out

13. UC-Davis Out

[cpalum]

I can't really argue with any of that.....looks right to me. The EWU v Montana and Cal Poly v ISU games will largely tell the story this week

[tomq04]

Things get exciting quickly, secretly rooting for Idaho State, but I really want the mustangs in the playoffs too. Both teams can really make some noise and should win at least a game in December.

[Rjones61]

A couple of teams were eliminated from playoff consideration and one qualified.
The criteria I am using is 7 Div 1 wins to earn consideration to be in the playoffs.
Sub D1 wins will be considered, but to keep this simple I am using the 7 Div 1 win model.

1. Eastern Washington In. One more win will get them in for sure. Two more for a seeding. UM, @PSU

2. Cal Poly Needs 1 more win. @ISU, UC Davis, @San Diego

3. Montana State Needs 2 more wins. PSU, ISU, @UM

4. Idaho State Needs 3 more wins. CP, @MSU, Weber

5. Montana Needs 2 more wins. @EWU, @SUU, MSU

6. Northern Arizona Needs 2 more wins. UC Davis, @UND, SUU

7. Sacramento State Out

8. Southern Utah Out

9. Northern Colorado Out

10. Portland State Out

11. North Dakota Out

12. Weber State Out

13. UC-Davis Out

I think Cal Poly needs to win out. If they lose a game, they will fall out of the top 25 again, and they will need a top 25 ranking to get the nod over a committee that favors the Montanas

[cpalum]

I think Cal Poly needs to win out. If they lose a game, they will fall out of the top 25 again, and they will need a top 25 ranking to get the nod over a committee that favors the Montanas


If they finished with a equal record to either Montana school and either got in over Cal Poly..that would be criminal. Cal Poly played a all DI schedule and beat both head to head. Not saying it couldn't happen but that would be all out favoritism.

[Rjones61]

If they finished with a equal record to either Montana school and either got in over Cal Poly..that would be criminal. Cal Poly played a all DI schedule and beat both head to head. Not saying it couldn't happen but that would be all out favoritism.


I agree, it would be criminal. However, with the way they shafted NAU to give Montana the seed last year, it wouldn't surprise me if they brought in the Montana schools just to get that extra income.

[wapiti]

So who is most likely to earn a playoff spot.

I think EWU will win its next 2 games and get a high seed.

I think CP will win its next 3, but the ISU game is a toss up. Even if CP losses that one and wins the next two CP will still get a playoff spot.

MSU will win its next 3, but both the ISU and UM games are a bit of a toss up. If MSU losses both then they are done, if MSU losses one then their invite is up to the committee.

ISU will lose to CP and MSU and wins its last one. Just one loss will probably elimanate Idaho State (Depending on what happens with the other bubble teams around the nation.)

I see UM lossing 2 of its next 3 games and will be eliminated from the playoffs. (Even the game at @SUU is not going to be an easy one for the Griz to win.)

I think NAU will win out and be in the playoffs.

This would give the Big Sky 4 teams: NAU, EWU, CP, and MSU.


A couple of teams were eliminated from playoff consideration and one qualified.
The criteria I am using is 7 Div 1 wins to earn consideration to be in the playoffs.
Sub D1 wins will be considered, but to keep this simple I am using the 7 Div 1 win model.

1. Eastern Washington In. One more win will get them in for sure. Two more for a seeding. UM, @PSU

2. Cal Poly Needs 1 more win. @ISU, UC Davis, @San Diego

3. Montana State Needs 2 more wins. PSU, ISU, @UM

4. Idaho State Needs 3 more wins. CP, @MSU, Weber

5. Montana Needs 2 more wins. @EWU, @SUU, MSU

6. Northern Arizona Needs 2 more wins. UC Davis, @UND, SUU

7. Sacramento State Out

8. Southern Utah Out

9. Northern Colorado Out

10. Portland State Out

11. North Dakota Out

12. Weber State Out

13. UC-Davis Out

[Rjones61]

So who is most likely to earn a playoff spot.

I think EWU will win its next 2 games and get a high seed.

I think CP will win its next 3, but the ISU game is a toss up. Even if CP losses that one and wins the next two CP will still get a playoff spot.

MSU will win its next 3, but both the ISU and UM games are a bit of a toss up. If MSU losses both then they are done, if MSU losses one then their invite is up to the committee.

ISU will lose to CP and MSU and wins its last one. Just one loss will probably elimanate Idaho State (Depending on what happens with the other bubble teams around the nation.)

I see UM lossing 2 of its next 3 games and will be eliminated from the playoffs. (Even the game at @SUU is not going to be an easy one for the Griz to win.)

I think NAU will win out and be in the playoffs.

This would give the Big Sky 4 teams: NAU, EWU, CP, and MSU.


Totally agree with all of this. I really think CP wins out. Idaho State has looked good lately, but they don't have the players to overcome Cal Poly's control of the tempo.

[citdog]

Go Bengals! I have been on their train since before the season! Keep making me look smart ISU! i need all help i can get in that dept!

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Hmm, I wonder what got you on that bandwagon.

[BadlandsGrizFan]

So who is most likely to earn a playoff spot.

I think EWU will win its next 2 games and get a high seed.

I think CP will win its next 3, but the ISU game is a toss up. Even if CP losses that one and wins the next two CP will still get a playoff spot.

MSU will win its next 3, but both the ISU and UM games are a bit of a toss up. If MSU losses both then they are done, if MSU losses one then their invite is up to the committee.

ISU will lose to CP and MSU and wins its last one. Just one loss will probably elimanate Idaho State (Depending on what happens with the other bubble teams around the nation.)

I see UM lossing 2 of its next 3 games and will be eliminated from the playoffs. (Even the game at @SUU is not going to be an easy one for the Griz to win.)

I think NAU will win out and be in the playoffs.

This would give the Big Sky 4 teams: NAU, EWU, CP, and MSU.

Cant wait to come back here in three weeks and give everyone the big F YOU...after the classic late season Montana push!