If you could ask the head of the playoff selection committee one question....

[citdog]

What would it be????

[thebootfitter]

Spending time over on B'ville again, Cit? ;-)

[kalm]

When it comes to seeding, how important is schedule strength and what tools and criteria are used to measure it?

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Spending time over on B'ville again, Cit? ;-)

This is actually serious as today we have booked a guest that will be able to answer some of the questions aobut how the committee works, looks at certain things and so forth. Gonna be a good chance to get some things answered on The FCS Wedge.

[Smitty]

Can you make Chattanooga miss every year?

[thebootfitter]

This is actually serious as today we have booked a guest that will be able to answer some of the questions aobut how the committee works, looks at certain things and so forth. Gonna be a good chance to get some things answered on The FCS Wedge.

Nice! Good work, guys! Then it makes perfect sense to ask the question wherever you can. Hopefully they'll be at liberty to disclose enough to satisfy us. I'll try to think of some questions too.

[penguinpower]

How much do the CAA, Big Sky, MEAC, and Patriot League pay you? Or who is the highest bidder?

[Professor Chaos]

With the expanded playoff field is 7 or more D1 wins and 4 or less losses still a requirement for playoff consideration as it has been in past years?

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

Is the GPI really ​one of the key indicators used in the selection process?

[UNIFanSince1983]

Y U no pick UNI?

[rokamortis]

Why do you hate the MVFC?



Ok, here is a serious one ....

How important is the SRS in the selection process and when will it be released?

[unigriff]

When considering 4-5 loss teams, do you actually weigh in that 1 or more losses were to a FBS?

[penguinpower]

What is the SRS formula?

[robsnotes4u]

Why do you hate the MVFC?



Ok, here is a serious one ....

How important is the SRS in the selection process and when will it be released?

To add to that, why don't they release it from about mid-season on. Why not release notes from the selection so people can understand the process

[robsnotes4u]

What is the SRS formula?


xthumbsupx

[clenz]

To add to that, why don't they release it from about mid-season on. Why not release notes from the selection so people can understand the process
Because the SRS isn't real.

It's a "ranking" that they make up after their selections have been made to place to make it look like they picked "right" teams. Maybe they'll create one or two *snubs* to make it look less fake but at the end of the day it's fake.

It's why you'll never see it before the selection show

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

[BisonFan02]

Is there regionalization?.....let me rephrase....WTF is up with regionalization?

[JSUBison]

Who is the head of the committee this year along with the other members?

[thebootfitter]

Without reference to any specific teams, but using realistic examples, walk us through the committee's process to determine why one bubble team is chosen over another.

[centennial]

Because the SRS isn't real.

It's a "ranking" that they make up after their selections have been made to place to make it look like they picked "right" teams. Maybe they'll create one or two *snubs* to make it look less fake but at the end of the day it's fake.

It's why you'll never see it before the selection show

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk
This is correct. I wish my math was better but there are ways to reconstruct forumlas , I just don't know how to do it for a complicated data set like FCS football. If they can explain how the SRS gets constructed I will be dumbfounded.

[robsnotes4u]

Who is the head of the committee this year along with the other members?
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamp_D1_Football_2014-15_Revised2.pdf

[JayJ79]

Because the SRS isn't real.

It's a "ranking" that they make up after their selections have been made to place to make it look like they picked "right" teams. Maybe they'll create one or two *snubs* to make it look less fake but at the end of the day it's fake.

It's why you'll never see it before the selection show

I, too, wear a similar tinfoil hat in regard to this matter.
if it were a legitimate formula, they wouldn't be so secretive about it. But then if they released it, they wouldn't be able to change it to suit their agendas.

similar to how they used to always say "less than 7 D-I wins MAY take a team out of consideration", and then now they supposedly scrapped that so that they can have the flexibility to include a 6 D-I win team. Yet they adopt an unofficial "no 5 loss teams" clause to use when they so choose.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

How much do the CAA, Big Sky, MEAC, and Patriot League pay you? Or who is the highest bidder?

Somehow I knew there would be several whiners and that they would come from the MVFC fanbases...as they do every year. We'll put you down as having nothing to add.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I, too, wear a similar tinfoil hat in regard to this matter.
if it were a legitimate formula, they wouldn't be so secretive about it. But then if they released it, they wouldn't be able to change it to suit their agendas.

similar to how they used to always say "less than 7 D-I wins MAY take a team out of consideration", and then now they supposedly scrapped that so that they can have the flexibility to include a 6 D-I win team. Yet they adopt an unofficial "no 5 loss teams" clause to use when they so choose.

The phrasing is important and yours is incorrect. "less than 7 D1 wins puts a team in jeopardy" is how it goes.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

BTW, this is not a current member of the selection committee. So things along the lines of bootfitter's question using past examples etc. might work best.

We'll have a bunch of stuff to cover ourselves but we will include a few of the best questions from this thread as well.

[robsnotes4u]

The phrasing is important and yours is incorrect. "less than 7 D1 wins puts a team in jeopardy" is how it goes.

I don't think you are correct, as of this year, look at #3

http://i.imgur.com/qb5F5cO.png

[BisonFan02]

I don't think you are correct, as of this year, look at #3

http://i.imgur.com/qb5F5cO.png

"Less than 6 DI wins MAY place a team in jeopardy".......well....I would sure hope so!

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I don't think you are correct, as of this year, look at #3

http://i.imgur.com/qb5F5cO.png

I may not be correct on the number for this year. I am addressing what what Jay was saying which is about past examples I think when it was 7. The wording is the same now as it was then except for the number which has went down by 1.

Thanks for tossing that up though. Might spur some other questions.

[robsnotes4u]

I may not be correct on the number for this year. I am addressing what what Jay was saying which is about past examples I think when it was 7. The wording is the same now as it was then except for the number which has went down by 1.

Thanks for tossing that up though. Might spur some other questions.
xthumbsupx

[clenz]

I may not be correct on the number for this year. I am addressing what what Jay was saying which is about past examples I think when it was 7. The wording is the same now as it was then except for the number which has went down by 1.

Thanks for tossing that up though. Might spur some other questions.
Which is horse **** in a 12 win season.

If you can't get to 7 wins in a 12 game season you don't belong - period.

If it's 6 in a 12 is it 5 in an 11 game year?

[robsnotes4u]

Which is horse **** in a 12 win season.

If you can't get to 7 wins in a 12 game season you don't belong - period.

If it's 6 in a 12 is it 5 in an 11 game year?

They call it the UNI rule:D

[rokamortis]

The use of "may" in the rules doesn't really help clarify.

Does an 11 game schedule hurt or help a team?

Does an all DI schedule help a team?

Does a sub-DI win hurt a team?

Does a FBS loss help / hurt a team?

Are wins or losses most important?

Please detail how a team's strength of schedule is scrutinized.

[clenz]

They call it the UNI rule:D
False.

UNI has never gotten in without winning at least a share of the conference title.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Which is horse **** in a 12 win season.

If you can't get to 7 wins in a 12 game season you don't belong - period.

If it's 6 in a 12 is it 5 in an 11 game year?

Oh JFC. They aren';t making rules for certain season's and then changing them as schedules go from 11 to 12 and back again.

[robsnotes4u]

The use of "may" in the rules doesn't really help clarify.

Does an 11 game schedule hurt or help a team?

Does an all DI schedule help a team?

Does a sub-DI win hurt a team?

Does a FBS loss help / hurt a team?

Are wins or losses most important?

Please detail how a team's strength of schedule is scrutinized.

This might answer a couple of questions, at least, how some things affect SRS.

19981

Page 15
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamp_D1_Football_2014-15_Revised2.pdf

[clenz]

Oh JFC. They aren';t making rules for certain season's and then changing them as schedules go from 11 to 12 and back again.
That's an issue for me.

If you play more games you should have to win more games to get in.

It leaves the door open to a really slippery slope of a president.

[centennial]

This system should be called I made a football rating system in junior high and the teacher gave me a F.

The NCAA Football Championship Committee will use the NCAA Simple Rating System (NCAA SRS) as a tool for evaluating teams for selection into the 24-team championship.
The NCAA SRS is a ranking system used to gauge team quality. Within the NCAA SRS, the rating of a team will be calculated
largely by two components: a strength-of-schedule measure (SOS) and a win-loss differential (WL).
A team’s SOS measure is simply the average NCAA SRS rating of that team’s opponents for the season.
A team’s WL measure factors whether or not a game was won or lost; the location of the game (home/away/neutral site);
and the NCAA (sub)division of the opponent.
1. In a game between two FCS teams played at a neutral site, the winning team gets one point and the losing team loses
one point.
2. In a game between two FCS teams played at a non-neutral site, a home win counts 0.75 for the home team and -0.75 for
the losing team. A road team win counts 1.25 for the visiting team and -1.25 for the home team. In other words, there
is a bonus/penalty of +/- 0.25 for the home/away teams depending on the outcome.
3. An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division I
opponents. For instance, a home FCS win against a Division II opponent counts only as +0.65 points (0.75 for a home
win - 0.1 penalty for playing a Division II opponent). In addition, a road FCS win against an FBS opponent counts +1.35
points for the FCS team (1.25 points for a road win + 0.1 bonus for beating an FBS opponent).
4. The WL measure is then doubled to equalize the contributions of the WL factor and SOS factor toward a team’s NCAA
SRS rating.
The teams’ ratings are independent in that one team’s rating depends on its opponents’ ratings, which depend on their
opponents’ ratings, etc., based on the “network” of college football games played each week during the football season. The
NCAA SRS will also standardize the data in order to equalize the variance in total number of games played (i.e., 11 or 12
regular-season games).

[centennial]

This system should be called I made a football rating system in junior high and the teacher gave me a F.
BTW with these numbers we could exactly predict what those idiots will do this year.

[Sycamore62]

Why don't you just make the selection meeting televised

[tingly]

SRS is a heavily changed and hopefully improved RPI. It uses win-loss differential which means a 9-3 record gets an advantage over 8-3. It can end up being a disadvantage where the extra win was at home vs. a bad D-II team.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

How you do you determine individual team strength? Especially when each conference/team have different scheduling principles based on economics, geography and history. No schedule is created equal when there's 120+ teams. Therefore are individual players, margin of victory, home vs away contests, etc used when determining a teams worth.....

[centennial]

How you do you determine individual team strength? Especially when each conference/team have difference scheduling principles based on economics, geography and history. No schedule is created equal when there's 120+ teams....A team’s SOS measure is simply the average NCAA SRS rating of that team’s opponents for the season.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

A team’s SOS measure is simply the average NCAA SRS rating of that team’s opponents for the season.

But there's more to it than that. Some programs schedule 1 or 2 money games because that particular school needs money. Not because they're trying to impress the committee. Some programs tend to stay more regional than others too. There's so many different factors when it comes to scheduling at the FCS level. 90% of it revolves around money....

Honestly, when there's 120+ teams and so many variables when it comes to scheduling, SOS is very much overblown....

[rokamortis]

This might answer a couple of questions, at least, how some things affect SRS.

19981

Page 15
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamp_D1_Football_2014-15_Revised2.pdf


I read it - but doesn't really help answer some of the SRS questions. Since they don't talk about how they determine both parts of the SRS. They discuss the W-L in detail but not the SOS piece. They also don't give an exact date of when it will be released or how much it is used. Like last year they said it would be used and then backed off of it.

[rokamortis]

A team’s SOS measure is simply the average NCAA SRS rating of that team’s opponents for the season.

But SOS is half of the SRS. They don't give the necessary info to fully calculate the SOS.

[centennial]

But there's more to it than that. Some programs schedule 1 or 2 money games because that particular school needs money. Not because they're trying to impress the committee....

Honestly, when there's 120+ teams and so many variables when it comes to scheduling, SOS is very much overblown....
The SOS needs the SRS ratings of the opponents. However SRS is calculated using SOS. The whole thing is a paradox. Hopefully, I am reading this wrong.

4. The WL measure is then doubled to equalize the contributions of the WL factor and SOS factor toward a team’s NCAA
SRS rating.

[JayJ79]

The phrasing is important and yours is incorrect. "less than 7 D1 wins puts a team in jeopardy" is how it goes.

jeopardy, eh?

http://media-cache-ec0.pinimg.com/236x/47/52/aa/4752aaa643aa6de8b2c0d6421fba2bcb.jpg

[MTfan4life]

That's an issue for me.

If you play more games you should have to win more games to get in.

It leaves the door open to a really slippery slope of a president.

You do. They showed this last season when New Hampshire got in with 7 wins in 11 games, while no other team got in with less than 8. I'm guessing the 6 win thing is there for years where the bubble really sucks or because the NCAA just wanted some arbitrary win guideline in there. It doesn't mean they'll start selecting 6 win teams. They've set a precedent that when there are enough teams to choose from, they don't dig into teams who have too many FCS losses. It's extremely rare that a team gets in with 4 or more FCS losses. People often forget that your number of losses are equally as important as the number of wins.

[JayJ79]

You do. They showed this last season when New Hampshire got in with 7 wins in 11 games, while no other team got in with less than 8. I'm guessing the 6 win thing is there for years where the bubble really sucks or because the NCAA just wanted some arbitrary win guideline in there. It doesn't mean they'll start selecting 6 win teams. They've set a precedent that when there are enough teams to choose from, they don't dig into teams who have too many FCS losses. It's extremely rare that a team gets in with 4 or more FCS losses. People often forget that your number of losses are equally as important as the number of wins.

so if a team from the toughest FCS conference ends up with 7 FCS wins and 3 FCS losses, they would have a decent chance at making the playoffs, right?

[rokamortis]

The SOS needs the SRS ratings of the opponents. However SRS is calculated using SOS. The whole thing is a paradox. Hopefully, I am reading this wrong.

My first thought as well. My thinking is perhaps they calculate the W-L first and use that for the opponent SOS initially then they re-calculate until there are no more changes.

[clenz]

You do. They showed this last season when New Hampshire got in with 7 wins in 11 games, while no other team got in with less than 8. I'm guessing the 6 win thing is there for years where the bubble really sucks or because the NCAA just wanted some arbitrary win guideline in there. It doesn't mean they'll start selecting 6 win teams. They've set a precedent that when there are enough teams to choose from, they don't dig into teams who have too many FCS losses. It's extremely rare that a team gets in with 4 or more FCS losses. People often forget that your number of losses are equally as important as the number of wins.
SHSU got in with 6, at most. From what I can tell they had 5 D1 wins

Is it total losses or just FCS loses?

If UNI wins out they are 8-2 in FCS play - seems like a top 8 seed potential.

If UNI loses 1 more game the consensus is they are out of the playoffs but would still be 7-3 in FCS games.

Which is more important - wins, counter wins, losses, FCS losses, total record?

[dudeitsaid]

With the expanded playoff field is 7 or more D1 wins and 4 or less losses still a requirement for playoff consideration as it has been in past years?

Especially in a 12 game season!

[ursus arctos horribilis]

jeopardy, eh?

http://media-cache-ec0.pinimg.com/236x/47/52/aa/4752aaa643aa6de8b2c0d6421fba2bcb.jpg

That's good brother. xlolx

[thebootfitter]

The SOS needs the SRS ratings of the opponents. However SRS is calculated using SOS. The whole thing is a paradox. Hopefully, I am reading this wrong.
My thoughts exactly. At that point, they may as well use a composite of established rating systems like Massey composite or GPI, which are bound to be more robust than a paradox.

[MTfan4life]

SHSU got in with 6, at most. From what I can tell they had 5 D1 wins

Is it total losses or just FCS loses?

If UNI wins out they are 8-2 in FCS play - seems like a top 8 seed potential.

If UNI loses 1 more game the consensus is they are out of the playoffs but would still be 7-3 in FCS games.

Which is more important - wins, counter wins, losses, FCS losses, total record?

Ask Towson that question when they missed out on the playoffs when 2 of their 4 losses were to FBS teams. Plus, how many people on here are on the committee? Does it really matter if people here say UNI is out with one more loss? They're not out until the field is finalized.

SHSU had 8 wins. The NCAA set aside all that D1 counter bull**** when they took away the 7 D1 win rule. If they did go by your conspiracy theory, how the **** would they have had only 5 FCS wins??? Regardless, I don't think the committee sat down and debated what teams counted as D1 wins. No longer is your win total screwed with a d2 team on it, especially with teams being able to count Valparaiso and Morehead State as just as much of a D1 win as any other D1 school.

[penguinpower]

Last year Northern Iowa had more Dr Wins than shsu and Youngstown had 8 and both were left out. Seems to me there is a lack of consistency in the selection committee. Rules are changed to fit the agenda of the committee. It is a laughable joke.

[OhioHen]

Please define "strength of schedule" for us - does it mean "how good were the teams you PLAYED" or "how good were the teams you BEAT"?

[rokamortis]

Please define "strength of schedule" for us - does it mean "how good were the teams you PLAYED" or "how good were the teams you BEAT"?

That's a great question. I'd add - how do you weigh SOS in regard to FBS teams and / or multiple FBS teams? Same question for DIIs and DIIIs, NAIA, other?

[kalm]

Ask Towson that question when they missed out on the playoffs when 2 of their 4 losses were to FBS teams. Plus, how many people on here are on the committee? Does it really matter if people here say UNI is out with one more loss? They're not out until the field is finalized.

SHSU had 8 wins. The NCAA set aside all that D1 counter bull**** when they took away the 7 D1 win rule. If they did go by your conspiracy theory, how the **** would they have had only 5 FCS wins??? Regardless, I don't think the committee sat down and debated what teams counted as D1 wins. No longer is your win total screwed with a d2 team on it, especially with teams being able to count Valparaiso and Morehead State as just as much of a D1 win as any other D1 school.

Yep. Western teams got screwed with the non-counter thing for years.

Look at this year's NCA&T opponents. Their average Massey ranking puts them at the level of .500 or worse DII.

No way in hell they should even sniff an at large.

[WestCoastAggie]

Yep. Western teams got screwed with the non-counter thing for years.

Look at this year's NCA&T opponents. Their average Massey ranking puts them at the level of .500 or worse DII.

No way in hell they should even sniff an at large.

Meh...

[kalm]

Meh...

Sorry...



Sun2014-08-31

vs
Alabama A&M (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=82&s=262657)@ Orlando FL

337(4-5)

W (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515190082)

47
13



Sat2014-09-06


Coastal Car (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1637&s=262657)

100(9-0)

L (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515190185)

30
31



Sat2014-09-13

at
Elon (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2447&s=262657)

293(1-8)

W (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515190223)

17
12



Sat2014-09-20


Chowan (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1510&s=262657)

637(1-8)

W (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515190420)

59
0



Sat2014-09-27

at
Howard (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3359&s=262657)

367(2-7)

W (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515190950)

38
22



Sat2014-10-04

vs
S Carolina St (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7250&s=262657)@ Atlanta GA

192(6-3)

L (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515191037)

0
13



Thu2014-10-09


Hampton (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3112&s=262657)

334(2-7)

W (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=532944079)

31
14



Sat2014-10-18

at
Delaware St (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2118&s=262657)

404(2-8)

W (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515191295)

33
20



Sat2014-10-25


Florida A&M (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2633&s=262657)

409(2-7)

W (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515191382)

40
21



Sat2014-11-08


Morgan St (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5114&s=262657)

275(5-4)

74 % (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515191592)

28
20



Sat2014-11-15

at
Savannah St (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7058&s=262657)

573(0-9)

99 % (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515191678)

42
10



Sat2014-11-22

at
NC Central (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5505&s=262657)

286(4-5)

68 % (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515192268)

27
20

[centennial]

My first thought as well. My thinking is perhaps they calculate the W-L first and use that for the opponent SOS initially then they re-calculate until there are no more changes.
Extremely stupid way of rating teams. No wonder no one can figure out why teams are rated high or low. Makes the ratings fundamentally flawed.

[clenz]

Ask Towson that question when they missed out on the playoffs when 2 of their 4 losses were to FBS teams. Plus, how many people on here are on the committee? Does it really matter if people here say UNI is out with one more loss? They're not out until the field is finalized.

SHSU had 8 wins. The NCAA set aside all that D1 counter bull**** when they took away the 7 D1 win rule. If they did go by your conspiracy theory, how the **** would they have had only 5 FCS wins??? Regardless, I don't think the committee sat down and debated what teams counted as D1 wins. No longer is your win total screwed with a d2 team on it, especially with teams being able to count Valparaiso and Morehead State as just as much of a D1 win as any other D1 school.I'd like proof that new D1 teams are non-D1 counters. Let's pretend that they are now D1 counters.

From what I can tell it was the first year D1 for HBU and UIW

Per CFBdatawarehouse (Yes, I'm aware there are occasional issues)

Houston Baptist


Football Classifications (NCAA started classification in 1937):










2013-20XX NCAA Division I-AA








Conference Affiliations:










2013-2013 Division I-AA Independent


2014-20XX Southland Conference







HBU also did not play a full slate last season. They played only 7 games and SHSU is the only one that I see an undeniably a D1 counter




L


08-31-2013


0


Sam Houston St. (TX)

74
Huntsville, TX




W


09-14-2013


52


Wayland Baptist (TX)

28
Plainview, TX




W


09-28-2013


34


Oklahoma Baptist University

3
Houston, TX




L


10-12-2013


12


Abilene Christian (TX)

69
Houston, TX




L


10-26-2013


3


Incarnate Word (TX)

24
San Antonio, TX




W


11-02-2013


49


Texas College

7
Houston, TX




L


11-09-2013


21


Texas A&M-Commerce

55
Houston, TX





UIW


Football Classifications (NCAA started classification in 1937):










2009-2009 N/A


2010-2012 NCAA Division II


2013-20XX NCAA Division I-AA








Conference Affiliations:










2009-2009 Division II Independent


2010-2012 Lone Star Conference


2013-2013 Division I-AA Independent


2014-20XX Southland Conference








If HBU doesn't count as D1 counter, because it was their first year D1, then last season was also UIW's first season D1 and should be a non-counter. They played just 3 games against known D1 counters (SHSU, SELA, and UCA) They played ACU twice



L


08-29-2013


7


Central Arkansas

58
Conway, AR




W


09-07-2013


69


Texas College

0
San Antonio, TX




W


09-14-2013


24


Langston (OK)

0
San Antonio, TX




L


09-21-2013


21


Sam Houston St. (TX)

52
Huntsville, TX




W


09-28-2013


33


Eastern New Mexico

26
San Antonio, TX




L


10-05-2013


3


Southeastern Louisiana

35
Hammond, LA




L


10-19-2013


6


Abilene Christian (TX)

40
Abilene, TX




W


10-26-2013


24


Houston Baptist (TX)

3
San Antonio, TX




W


11-02-2013


47


McMurry (TX)

43
Abilene, TX




W


11-09-2013


34


Abilene Christian (TX)

31
San Antonio, TX




L


11-16-2013


0


Angelo St. (TX)

7
San Antonio, TX




Abeline Christian


Football Classifications (NCAA started classification in 1937):










1951-1972 NCAA College Division (Small College)


1952-1969 NAIA


1970-1982 NAIA Division I


1981-2012 NCAA Division II


2013-20XX NCAA Division I-AA








Conference Affiliations:










1919-1924 Independent


1925-1930 Texas Intercollegiate Athletic Association


1931-1932 Independent


1933-1953 Texas Collegiate Athletic Conference


1954-1954 Independent


1955-1956 Gulf Coast Conference


1957-1963 Independent


1964-1972 Southland Conference


1973-2012 Lone Star Conference


2013-2013 Division I-AA Independent


2014-20XX Southland Conference

Same as above, last season was first year D1. Should not be a, AFAIK

Played just 3 known D1 counters - ISUr, NMSU, and PVAM...did not play SHSU





W


08-31-2013


84


Concordia College (AL)

6
Abilene, TX




W


09-07-2013


60


McMurry (TX)

17
Abilene, TX




W


09-14-2013


52


New Mexico Highlands

28
Abilene, TX




L


09-21-2013


17


Illinois St.

31
Normal, IL




L


09-28-2013


34


Tarleton St. (TX)

41
Frisco, TX




L


10-05-2013


20


Pittsburg St. (KS)

28
Pittsburg, KS




W


10-12-2013


69


Houston Baptist (TX)

12
Houston, TX




W


10-19-2013


40


Incarnate Word (TX)

6
Abilene, TX




L


10-26-2013


29


New Mexico St.

34
Las Cruces, NM




L


11-09-2013


31


Incarnate Word (TX)

34
San Antonio, TX




W


11-16-2013


65


Prairie View A&M (TX)

45
Prairie View, TX










South Dakota was a non-counter in 2008 (their first year), NDSU and SDSU were non-counters in 2004 (their first year)

That would have given SHSU wins over:
Houston Baptist - 3-4 (0 D1 wins)
Texas Southern - 2-9 (Ark Pine-Bluff and Gramblig State)
Incarnate Word 6-5 (0 D1 wins)
Lamar 5-7 (3 D1 wins - Grambling State)
Norhtwestern State - 6-6 (5 D1 wins - Southern, UCA, Lamar, SFA)
SFA - 3-9 (2 D1 wins - Montana State Nichols State)
Nicholls State - 4-8 (2 D1 wins - Western Michigan Northwestern State)


I'm sure ursus will roll his eyes but I'm going to type this out again and form it for a question for the selection committee

What is more important - D1 wins, total wins, D1 record, how much is FBS taken into account, SOS?

Last year the issues for a couple MVFC teams (which are legit and at this point I'm not arguing about if they should have been in. I'm looking for clarification on what the committee is looking for)

UNI - they didn't win enough conference games.
Youngstown State - finished the season poorly and had a poor OOC.

Okay, got it.

Well here is where my confusion comes in

YSU was left out for a weak OOC (and it was) and losing 3 in a row to end the season but they had 8 D1 wins with 5 conference wins. Northern Iowa had one of the toughest OOC schedules in the nation and went undefeated through it (FBS wins and an absolute curb-stomping of a seeded McNeese State team) and won 3 straight to end the season.

So the justification used to keep YSU out was ignored when it came to UNI and the reason for keeping UNI out was ignored when looking at YSU.

Meanwhile SHSU played one of the weakest schedules in the nation and hinged their entire season on the one win (and it was a good one) on EWU. Based on the reasons for UNI and YSU being left out (again, at this point I don't have an issue with it in a vacuum) there is no way SHSU should have been included. So why was SHSU included?

They had a poor OOC, finished the season poorly by losing 2 of their final 3 (and 3-3 in their last 6) finished tied for 3rd in the conference. BUT had the same number of D1 wins as Central Arkansas (who had a similar resume as SHSU) and UCA finished tied for 3rd as well. UCA won 2 of the last 3 to finish the season, including a win over SHSU the last week of the season.


I just want to know what the criteria really is.

They are using justifications to keep teams out, and they are valid, but then completely changing the rules to keep another team out and then completely ignored all of those to put another team in.

If they want to get rid of the D1 counter rule that's fine but sets a real bad precident. I can't understand counting 1 non-D1 game but to count more than 1 is an issue. At that point what is the incentive to schedule D1 games? Why not schedule 2 D2/NAIA?

As I said, at this point I'm over last season but it's an interesting case study to look at how the committee is picking teams

[Sycamore62]

I would ask what kind of childish reason would there be to not have a school's representative in the room when they discuss teams. do they have a 15yo girl as a proxy?

[MR. CHICKEN]

I would ask what kind of childish reason would there be to not have a school's representative in the room when they discuss teams. do they have a 15yo girl as a proxy?

19982.....SERIOUS-LAH..?..xeekx....DUH VALLEY BOYS ARE SOMETHING' SPECIAL....AIN'T DEY!.....xrolleyesx....AWK!

[Lehigh'98]

Is there regionalization?.....let me rephrase....WTF is up with regionalization?


There is regionalization and its not a hidden issue. This is for cost savings purposes in the early rounds to reduce travel expense as much as possible. Its been around as long as the playoffs. No one really likes it, but from a financial standpoint it makes sense.

[Sycamore62]

19982.....SERIOUS-LAH..?..xeekx....DUH VALLEY BOYS ARE SOMETHING' SPECIAL....AIN'T DEY!.....xrolleyesx....AWK!

Just saying, I think professionals should be able to act professionally. Like Clenz said (omg i just did it) the argument to keep one team out shouldnt be the argument to put one team in.

[clenz]

There is regionalization and its not a hidden issue. This is for cost savings purposes in the early rounds to reduce travel expense as much as possible. Its been around as long as the playoffs. No one really likes it, but from a financial standpoint it makes sense.
Does regionalization create issues when selecting teams - re: if it's between 2 teams and 1 is closer to other teams do they pick that one?

[WileECoyote06]

Does regionalization create issues when selecting teams - re: if it's between 2 teams and 1 is closer to other teams do they pick that one?

I whole-heartedly believe this. One of the reasons SCSU got into the playoffs last year. . caused by the auto-bid being awarded to Furman.

And if Jacksonville gets the Pioneer autobid, you might as well pencil in Bethune-Cookman too.

[Twentysix]

Where is the fondue?

[Lehigh'98]

Does regionalization create issues when selecting teams - re: if it's between 2 teams and 1 is closer to other teams do they pick that one?


They may say no, but I believe the answer is yes. Although it could probably be minimized by shuffling some matchups.

[PantherRob82]

I wish we could go back to seeding the whole field. That was awesome. Wait, that's not a question. :)

[kalm]

I'd like proof that new D1 teams are non-D1 counters. Let's pretend that they are now D1 counters.

From what I can tell it was the first year D1 for HBU and UIW

Per CFBdatawarehouse (Yes, I'm aware there are occasional issues)

Houston Baptist


Football Classifications (NCAA started classification in 1937):










2013-20XX NCAA Division I-AA








Conference Affiliations:










2013-2013 Division I-AA Independent


2014-20XX Southland Conference







HBU also did not play a full slate last season. They played only 7 games and SHSU is the only one that I see an undeniably a D1 counter




L


08-31-2013


0


Sam Houston St. (TX)

74
Huntsville, TX




W


09-14-2013


52


Wayland Baptist (TX)

28
Plainview, TX




W


09-28-2013


34


Oklahoma Baptist University

3
Houston, TX




L


10-12-2013


12


Abilene Christian (TX)

69
Houston, TX




L


10-26-2013


3


Incarnate Word (TX)

24
San Antonio, TX




W


11-02-2013


49


Texas College

7
Houston, TX




L


11-09-2013


21


Texas A&M-Commerce

55
Houston, TX





UIW


Football Classifications (NCAA started classification in 1937):










2009-2009 N/A


2010-2012 NCAA Division II


2013-20XX NCAA Division I-AA








Conference Affiliations:










2009-2009 Division II Independent


2010-2012 Lone Star Conference


2013-2013 Division I-AA Independent


2014-20XX Southland Conference








If HBU doesn't count as D1 counter, because it was their first year D1, then last season was also UIW's first season D1 and should be a non-counter. They played just 3 games against known D1 counters (SHSU, SELA, and UCA) They played ACU twice



L


08-29-2013


7


Central Arkansas

58
Conway, AR




W


09-07-2013


69


Texas College

0
San Antonio, TX




W


09-14-2013


24


Langston (OK)

0
San Antonio, TX




L


09-21-2013


21


Sam Houston St. (TX)

52
Huntsville, TX




W


09-28-2013


33


Eastern New Mexico

26
San Antonio, TX




L


10-05-2013


3


Southeastern Louisiana

35
Hammond, LA




L


10-19-2013


6


Abilene Christian (TX)

40
Abilene, TX




W


10-26-2013


24


Houston Baptist (TX)

3
San Antonio, TX




W


11-02-2013


47


McMurry (TX)

43
Abilene, TX




W


11-09-2013


34


Abilene Christian (TX)

31
San Antonio, TX




L


11-16-2013


0


Angelo St. (TX)

7
San Antonio, TX




Abeline Christian


Football Classifications (NCAA started classification in 1937):










1951-1972 NCAA College Division (Small College)


1952-1969 NAIA


1970-1982 NAIA Division I


1981-2012 NCAA Division II


2013-20XX NCAA Division I-AA








Conference Affiliations:










1919-1924 Independent


1925-1930 Texas Intercollegiate Athletic Association


1931-1932 Independent


1933-1953 Texas Collegiate Athletic Conference


1954-1954 Independent


1955-1956 Gulf Coast Conference


1957-1963 Independent


1964-1972 Southland Conference


1973-2012 Lone Star Conference


2013-2013 Division I-AA Independent


2014-20XX Southland Conference

Same as above, last season was first year D1. Should not be a, AFAIK

Played just 3 known D1 counters - ISUr, NMSU, and PVAM...did not play SHSU





W


08-31-2013


84


Concordia College (AL)

6
Abilene, TX




W


09-07-2013


60


McMurry (TX)

17
Abilene, TX




W


09-14-2013


52


New Mexico Highlands

28
Abilene, TX




L


09-21-2013


17


Illinois St.

31
Normal, IL




L


09-28-2013


34


Tarleton St. (TX)

41
Frisco, TX




L


10-05-2013


20


Pittsburg St. (KS)

28
Pittsburg, KS




W


10-12-2013


69


Houston Baptist (TX)

12
Houston, TX




W


10-19-2013


40


Incarnate Word (TX)

6
Abilene, TX




L


10-26-2013


29


New Mexico St.

34
Las Cruces, NM




L


11-09-2013


31


Incarnate Word (TX)

34
San Antonio, TX




W


11-16-2013


65


Prairie View A&M (TX)

45
Prairie View, TX










South Dakota was a non-counter in 2008 (their first year), NDSU and SDSU were non-counters in 2004 (their first year)

That would have given SHSU wins over:
Houston Baptist - 3-4 (0 D1 wins)
Texas Southern - 2-9 (Ark Pine-Bluff and Gramblig State)
Incarnate Word 6-5 (0 D1 wins)
Lamar 5-7 (3 D1 wins - Grambling State)
Norhtwestern State - 6-6 (5 D1 wins - Southern, UCA, Lamar, SFA)
SFA - 3-9 (2 D1 wins - Montana State Nichols State)
Nicholls State - 4-8 (2 D1 wins - Western Michigan Northwestern State)


I'm sure ursus will roll his eyes but I'm going to type this out again and form it for a question for the selection committee

What is more important - D1 wins, total wins, D1 record, how much is FBS taken into account, SOS?

Last year the issues for a couple MVFC teams (which are legit and at this point I'm not arguing about if they should have been in. I'm looking for clarification on what the committee is looking for)

UNI - they didn't win enough conference games.
Youngstown State - finished the season poorly and had a poor OOC.

Okay, got it.

Well here is where my confusion comes in

YSU was left out for a weak OOC (and it was) and losing 3 in a row to end the season but they had 8 D1 wins with 5 conference wins. Northern Iowa had one of the toughest OOC schedules in the nation and went undefeated through it (FBS wins and an absolute curb-stomping of a seeded McNeese State team) and won 3 straight to end the season.

So the justification used to keep YSU out was ignored when it came to UNI and the reason for keeping UNI out was ignored when looking at YSU.

Meanwhile SHSU played one of the weakest schedules in the nation and hinged their entire season on the one win (and it was a good one) on EWU. Based on the reasons for UNI and YSU being left out (again, at this point I don't have an issue with it in a vacuum) there is no way SHSU should have been included. So why was SHSU included?

They had a poor OOC, finished the season poorly by losing 2 of their final 3 (and 3-3 in their last 6) finished tied for 3rd in the conference. BUT had the same number of D1 wins as Central Arkansas (who had a similar resume as SHSU) and UCA finished tied for 3rd as well. UCA won 2 of the last 3 to finish the season, including a win over SHSU the last week of the season.


I just want to know what the criteria really is.

They are using justifications to keep teams out, and they are valid, but then completely changing the rules to keep another team out and then completely ignored all of those to put another team in.

If they want to get rid of the D1 counter rule that's fine but sets a real bad precident. I can't understand counting 1 non-D1 game but to count more than 1 is an issue. At that point what is the incentive to schedule D1 games? Why not schedule 2 D2/NAIA?

As I said, at this point I'm over last season but it's an interesting case study to look at how the committee is picking teams

I could be mistaken, but I thought the DI counter criteria went away and they were going to consider DII games as well?

[Thumper 76]

Are teams looked at completely independent of their conference affiliation or do things like number of teams already selected and prior conference performance in the playoffs or OOC come into play?

[clenz]

I could be mistaken, but I thought the DI counter criteria went away and they were going to consider DII games as well?
I addressed that at the end of my post...

"If they want to get rid of the D1 counter rule that's fine but sets a real bad precedent. I can understand counting 1 non-D1 game but to count more than 1 is an issue. At that point what is the incentive to schedule D1 games? Why not schedule 2 D2/NAIA?"

If SOS is going to matter than schools that play "non-counters" or multiple D2s should have that hurt them. If YSU had a poor SOS/OOC held against them last season why didn't SHSU/SUU?

[clenz]

Are teams looked at completely independent of their conference affiliation or do things like number of teams already selected and prior conference performance in the playoffs or OOC come into play?Teams are *supposed* to be completely independent.

Teams, not conferences, earn at larges.

When talking about teams do they attach team names to it or do they go "team a", "team b", "team c" etc...

If team names are attached could that not lead to some serious biases for/against a team/conference?

[Sycamore62]

I wish we could go back to seeding the whole field. That was awesome. Wait, that's not a question. :)

FIFY

What dumb reason do you use to justify not going back to seeding the whole field?

[robsnotes4u]

I could be mistaken, but I thought the DI counter criteria went away and they were going to consider DII games as well?

http://i.imgur.com/TxBGdTS.png

[Lehigh'98]

FIFY

What dumb reason do you use to justify not going back to seeding the whole field?

Regionalization and cost.

[robsnotes4u]

I addressed that at the end of my post...

"If they want to get rid of the D1 counter rule that's fine but sets a real bad precedent. I can understand counting 1 non-D1 game but to count more than 1 is an issue. At that point what is the incentive to schedule D1 games? Why not schedule 2 D2/NAIA?"

If SOS is going to matter than schools that play "non-counters" or multiple D2s should have that hurt them. If YSU had a poor SOS/OOC held against them last season why didn't SHSU/SUU?


It does look at page 15.
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamp_D1_Football_2014-15_Revised2.pdf

[clenz]

It does look at page 15.
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamp_D1_Football_2014-15_Revised2.pdf
Then what about SHSU/SUU's schedule gave them the bump over YSU?

[BisonFan02]

Then what about SHSU/SUU's schedule gave them the bump over YSU?

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/stat/iaa-bracket.htm

*puts on tinfoil hat* Did the selection committee need that SHSU/SUU matchup to send SHSU to SELA for cost savings/regionalization? *takes off tinfoil hat*

[robsnotes4u]

Then what about SHSU/SUU's schedule gave them the bump over YSU?

Sorry, I am not a math major. You would have to go through every game that they played, and every game that is in the network of games the teams they played to answer that question.

[TypicalTribe]

Then what about SHSU/SUU's schedule gave them the bump over YSU?

I think you're looking at it wrong. SHSU/SUU didn't get the edge over YSU. I think YSu had already been eliminated from consideration. The committee looked at the way they finished the season and considered the game against SDSU to be a playoff game for the Penguins. Once they lost that on their home field, I don't believe they were in the discussion. Same thing with UNI once they had 5 conference losses. it's not so much that the last few teams were chosen over YSU/SIU/UNI, it's that they were the best few teams that the committee considered eligible for discussion.

[WileECoyote06]

Regionalization and cost.

And the fan base. The one positive to regionalization is that fans of the teams can travel to see their team play. It may not matter much to perennial playoff participants; but for teams earning their first playoff berth or conference championship; that berth energizes a fan base.

[clenz]

I think you're looking at it wrong. SHSU/SUU didn't get the edge over YSU. I think YSu had already been eliminated from consideration. The committee looked at the way they finished the season and considered the game against SDSU to be a playoff game for the Penguins. Once they lost that on their home field, I don't believe they were in the discussion. Same thing with UNI once they had 5 conference losses. it's not so much that the last few teams were chosen over YSU/SIU/UNI, it's that they were the best few teams that the committee considered eligible for discussion.
The committee came out and said, after the selection show, that YSU wasn't chosen because they finished poorly and UNI wasn't because of enough conference wins.

They were clearly discussed.

[stevdock]

Here's how I see the rest of the season going in the MVFC.

NDSU finishes 12-0 (obviously we can drop one but I don't think we will)
Ill St finished 8-3 losing both YSU and SIU
YSU, Indy St and SDSU all finish 8-4
UNI and SIU finish 7-5

So all meet the 7 win total. No way we get 7 teams in, but what does the committee do with this scenario? (and based on match ups and who wins which games these records could happen) Also I believe all of those records would put every at .500 or better in the conference.

[BisonFan02]

Here's how I see the rest of the season going in the MVFC.

NDSU finishes 12-0 (obviously we can drop one but I don't think we will)
Ill St finished 8-3 losing both YSU and SIU
YSU, Indy St and SDSU all finish 8-4
UNI and SIU finish 7-5

So all meet the 7 win total. No way we get 7 teams in, but what does the committee do with this scenario? (and based on match ups and who wins which games these records could happen) Also I believe all of those records would put every at .500 or better in the conference.

The MVFC will get 2....can't take all three 8-4 teams. :D

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Here's how I see the rest of the season going in the MVFC.

NDSU finishes 12-0 (obviously we can drop one but I don't think we will)
Ill St finished 8-3 losing both YSU and SIU
YSU, Indy St and SDSU all finish 8-4
UNI and SIU finish 7-5

So all meet the 7 win total. No way we get 7 teams in, but what does the committee do with this scenario? (and based on match ups and who wins which games these records could happen) Also I believe all of those records would put every at .500 or better in the conference.

3 would be justified imo. It would be a shame if no one else stepped up and proved they were better than the "jumbled mess". For the MVFC's sake, a second team needs to emerge as a legit threat.....

[robsnotes4u]

3 would be justified imo. It would be a shame if no one else stepped up and proved they were better than the "jumbled mess". For the MVFC's sake, a second team needs to emerge as a legit threat.....

Why are three justified? Impossible to do, IMO, without knowing the qualifications of every other team that are At-large, wouldn't you agree?

[URMite]

It does look at page 15.
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamp_D1_Football_2014-15_Revised2.pdf

If I am reading that right, your opponents (and to some extent their opponents, ad infinitum...) number of wins is more important than their division for SOS.

If all games were on a neutral field and all teams were .500 other than your opponent, I see SOS like this...

6-6 FCS opponent as 100% of a team
6-6 BCS as 110%
5-7 D2 as 92%
7-5 D2 as 105%

That would make your wins, their location, and the total of your opponents wins as the most significant components of SRS, and may explain to some extent last years SRS rankings.

[clenz]

The MVFC will get 2....can't take all three 8-4 teams. :D
Imagine if UNI wins out and gets to 8-4...

I think that would mean
NDSU 11-1
ISUR 8-3
ISUB/YSU/UNI/SDSU 8-4
SIU 6-6

[PantherRob82]

Imagine if UNI wins out and gets to 8-4...

I think that would mean
NDSU 11-1
ISUR 8-3
ISUB/YSU/UNI/SDSU 8-4
SIU 6-6

UNI would have to get in with wins over NDSU and ISUr and being on a 5 game win streak, right?

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Why are three justified? Impossible to do, IMO, without knowing the qualifications of every other team that are At-large, wouldn't you agree?

Without knowing how the standings would end up, I think you take the 1st and 2nd place teams and then make a decision from there. I could see the committee being justified in selecting 2 or 4 teams depending on how things play out. Hopefully someone emerges as that true #2. If everyone all looks the same behind NDSU then the MVFC could have a disappointing selection day....

[BisonFan02]

Without knowing how the standings would end up, I think you take the 1st and 2nd place teams and then make a decision from there. I could see the committee being justified in selecting 2 or 4 teams depending on how things play out. Hopefully someone emerges as that true #2. If everyone all looks the same behind NDSU then the MVFC could have a disappointing selection day....

Which is absolute BS.........I'm not one to continually carry the MVFC circle jerk torch (other than poking a little fun), but the best teams should be in the post season....I will just leave it at that.

[penguinpower]

What if YSU had played SDSU the 3rd game of the season and ended with the same record? Would it have mattered then?

To me this is subjective bull****. Record and schedule strength matters not when losses occur. Teams cannot control their conference schedule. YSU had to play NDSU twice at the Fargo Dome due to conference reboot. There is such thing as home field advantage too.

[Sycamore62]

What if YSU had played SDSU the 3rd game of the season and ended with the same record? Would it have mattered then?

To me this is subjective bull****. Record and schedule strength matters not when losses occur. Teams cannot control their conference schedule. YSU had to play NDSU twice at the Fargo Dome due to conference reboot. There is such thing as home field advantage too.

I agree with penguin. When I looked at our season after 3 OOC wins, I thought we could go 0-3 (UNI, ISUr, NDSU)then 5-0 (I'm optimistic by nature). Would that be better than someone who lost to those 3 teams last with comparable OOC schedules?

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Which is absolute BS.........I'm not one to continually carry the MVFC circle jerk torch (other than poking a little fun), but the best teams should be in the post season....I will just leave it at that.

I don't know how you can say with certainty that a bunch of 8-4/7-5 teams are the best in the country. Whenever great conferences have great seasons there's usually a level of hierarchy that exists within it. This goes back to ACC hoops in the 90's, more recently the Big East and now SEC football. When one team appears to be so much better and no one else steps up from the rest of the pack it raises some eyebrows.....

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I would ask, "What the hell did you trade Jay Buhner for?! He had 30 home runs, over 100 RBIs last year! He's got a rocket for an arm.... You don't know what the hell you're doing!"

[robsnotes4u]

What if YSU had played SDSU the 3rd game of the season and ended with the same record? Would it have mattered then?

To me this is subjective bull****. Record and schedule strength matters not when losses occur. Teams cannot control their conference schedule. YSU had to play NDSU twice at the Fargo Dome due to conference reboot. There is such thing as home field advantage too.

A team’s WL measure factors whether or not a game was won or lost; the location of the game (home/away/neutral site);and the NCAA (sub)division of the opponent.

1. In a game between two FCS teams played at a neutral site, the winning team gets one point and the losing team losesone point.

2. In a game between two FCS teams played at a non-neutral site, a home win counts 0.75 for the home team and -0.75 forthe losing team. A road team win counts 1.25 for the visiting team and -1.25 for the home team. In other words, thereis a bonus/penalty of +/- 0.25 for the home/away teams depending on the outcome.

3. An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division Iopponents. For instance, a home FCS win against a Division II opponent counts only as +0.65 points (0.75 for a homewin - 0.1 penalty for playing a Division II opponent). In addition, a road FCS win against an FBS opponent counts +1.35points for the FCS team (1.25 points for a road win + 0.1 bonus for beating an FBS opponent).

4. The WL measure is then doubled to equalize the contributions of the WL factor and SOS factor toward a team’s NCAASRS rating.

The teams’ ratings are independent in that one team’s rating depends on its opponents’ ratings, which depend on theiropponents’ ratings, etc., based on the “network” of college football games played each week during the football season. TheNCAA SRS will also standardize the data in order to equalize the variance in total number of games played (i.e., 11 or 12regular-season games).Margin of victory is not factored into

[robsnotes4u]

Without knowing how the standings would end up, I think you take the 1st and 2nd place teams and then make a decision from there. I could see the committee being justified in selecting 2 or 4 teams depending on how things play out. Hopefully someone emerges as that true #2. If everyone all looks the same behind NDSU then the MVFC could have a disappointing selection day....

NDSU would already be in. You aren't comparing them directly to NDSU at that time. You are comparing them to everyone else being considered for At-Large Bids. You are not comparing the conference. You are comparing teams individual of the conference.

[robsnotes4u]

If I am reading that right, your opponents (and to some extent their opponents, ad infinitum...) number of wins is more important than their division for SOS.

If all games were on a neutral field and all teams were .500 other than your opponent, I see SOS like this...

6-6 FCS opponent as 100% of a team
6-6 BCS as 110%
5-7 D2 as 92%
7-5 D2 as 105%

That would make your wins, their location, and the total of your opponents wins as the most significant components of SRS, and may explain to some extent last years SRS rankings.

I read it that it doesn't matter if the team is in your conference of not when figuring SOS. I can't imagine any computation giving you points or not for being a part of the MVFC directly. Indirectly, the teams of the MVFC would affect your SOS as they are part of the network of teams you played.

[AmsterBison]

One question: Why not publish the SRS formula?
.

[URMite]

I read it that it doesn't matter if the team is in your conference of not when figuring SOS. I can't imagine any computation giving you points or not for being a part of the MVFC directly. Indirectly, the teams of the MVFC would affect your SOS as they are part of the network of teams you played.

I meant Division (FBS, FCS, Division II) not Conference (MVFC). The adjustment in item 3 for FBS/Non-Division I seems small enough that your opponent's number of wins has a much greater effect.

[URMite]

It seems we should be able to calculate YSU & SHSU SRS from last season, if we have a list of SRS for all the teams.


But I don't think they published the SRS for the FBS & Division II teams, so therefore we can't without a great deal of work.

[skinny_uncle]

It does look at page 15.
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamp_D1_Football_2014-15_Revised2.pdf

The manual is 25 pages long. It was obviously written by a lawyer, not a football fan.

[FargoBison]

Imagine if UNI wins out and gets to 8-4...

I think that would mean
NDSU 11-1
ISUR 8-3
ISUB/YSU/UNI/SDSU 8-4
SIU 6-6

If that happens the MVFC should get 5 teams in.

[robsnotes4u]

It seems we should be able to calculate YSU & SHSU SRS from last season, if we have a list of SRS for all the teams.


But I don't think they published the SRS for the FBS & Division II teams, so therefore we can't without a great deal of work.

I think the issue for everyone on here is the same. There isn't a clear cut way to determine who should be in. The committee mentions their SRS as one of the tools they use, and they also state the SRS will not "force select". Their a lot of resources available, and everyone has their own perception of each.

I think of the selection committee as a Olympic judge for gymnastics. They do have guidelines, but when there is no real scorekeeping, the perception of each individual judge decides the outcome.

With that being said, it would be nice to hear the process.
1. Win/Loss Record
2. SRS
3. Head-to- Head
4. etc..

That was just an example, not a true list. I doubt that we will ever see this.

[BisonTru]

A team’s WL measure factors whether or not a game was won or lost; the location of the game (home/away/neutral site);and the NCAA (sub)division of the opponent.

1. In a game between two FCS teams played at a neutral site, the winning team gets one point and the losing team losesone point.

2. In a game between two FCS teams played at a non-neutral site, a home win counts 0.75 for the home team and -0.75 forthe losing team. A road team win counts 1.25 for the visiting team and -1.25 for the home team. In other words, thereis a bonus/penalty of +/- 0.25 for the home/away teams depending on the outcome.

3. An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division Iopponents. For instance, a home FCS win against a Division II opponent counts only as +0.65 points (0.75 for a homewin - 0.1 penalty for playing a Division II opponent). In addition, a road FCS win against an FBS opponent counts +1.35points for the FCS team (1.25 points for a road win + 0.1 bonus for beating an FBS opponent).

4. The WL measure is then doubled to equalize the contributions of the WL factor and SOS factor toward a team’s NCAASRS rating.

The teams’ ratings are independent in that one team’s rating depends on its opponents’ ratings, which depend on theiropponents’ ratings, etc., based on the “network” of college football games played each week during the football season. TheNCAA SRS will also standardize the data in order to equalize the variance in total number of games played (i.e., 11 or 12regular-season games).Margin of victory is not factored into

Does this mean SRS = A team's WL factor + their SOS?

Also, when figuring a team's SOS you would also need to figure the SRS for their FBS and Division II opponents and subsequently figure the SRS for all FBS and Division II teams. Another question would be "Are FBS and Division II teams weighted differently?

For example would a FBS team get 1.35 ponts for a road win vs. another FBS team? Would a Division II team lose -1.35 points for a home lose vs. another Division II?

I was going to attempt to try and calculate the SRS, but I lost interest when I realized I'd have to figure the SRS for all of the FBS and Division II, also.

[BisonTru]

If that happens the MVFC should get 5 teams in.

Which 8-4 team do you leave out? I would guess YSU. That'd suck to be snubbed again.

[WestCoastAggie]

Sorry...



Sun2014-08-31

vs
Alabama A&M (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=82&s=262657)@ Orlando FL

337(4-5)

W (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515190082)

47
13



Sat2014-09-06


Coastal Car (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1637&s=262657)

100(9-0)

L (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515190185)

30
31



Sat2014-09-13

at
Elon (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2447&s=262657)

293(1-8)

W (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515190223)

17
12



Sat2014-09-20


Chowan (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1510&s=262657)

637(1-8)

W (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515190420)

59
0



Sat2014-09-27

at
Howard (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3359&s=262657)

367(2-7)

W (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515190950)

38
22



Sat2014-10-04

vs
S Carolina St (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7250&s=262657)@ Atlanta GA

192(6-3)

L (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515191037)

0
13



Thu2014-10-09


Hampton (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3112&s=262657)

334(2-7)

W (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=532944079)

31
14



Sat2014-10-18

at
Delaware St (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2118&s=262657)

404(2-8)

W (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515191295)

33
20



Sat2014-10-25


Florida A&M (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2633&s=262657)

409(2-7)

W (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515191382)

40
21



Sat2014-11-08


Morgan St (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5114&s=262657)

275(5-4)

74 % (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515191592)

28
20



Sat2014-11-15

at
Savannah St (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7058&s=262657)

573(0-9)

99 % (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515191678)

42
10



Sat2014-11-22

at
NC Central (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5505&s=262657)

286(4-5)

68 % (http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=515192268)

27
20



It's still meh... If we get in... Great! We will win games as long as our QB is healthy.

If we don't, oh well. We will still celebrate a 10 win season, if we get there.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I was going to attempt to try and calculate the SRS, but I lost interest when I realized I'd have to figure the SRS for all of the FBS and Division II, also.

IMO that is the great weakness when using SRS to evaluate college football. In the NFL, where there is a fixed set of opponents that all play a large number of outside-of-division games, it's not so bad (though you have to get to the playoffs before it becomes fairly predictive). But in college football, you need to evaluate these subsets of data (FCS vs. FBS, FCS vs. D-II) of which there is extremely limited and incomplete data. You end up needing to ask unanswerable questions like "How good would Iowa State be in FCS?" and "Would CS-Pueblo win the Southland?" And obviously you can't answer that only with the results of one game.

And now you know why the SRS isn't published. Having CS-Pueblo in the FCS Top 25 won't fly for public consumption.

[penguinpower]

Which 8-4 team do you leave out? I would guess YSU. That'd suck to be snubbed again.

Is your point that YSU has been a bubble team 5 times since 2006 and has not gotten in every time? Is YSU the new Wofford?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Is your point that YSU has been a bubble team 5 times since 2006 and has not gotten in every time? Is YSU the new Lehigh

FIFY

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Hey fella's. If we could have the playoff discussions in any ot the other threads and keep this one sort of focused on what we're trying to do here I'd really appreciate it. Not making a big deal about it or anything just would like to keep this sort of focused so it's easy to whittle down on Moday/Tuesday.


Here is a thread URMite started to stem the talk to this one.
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?163779-Non-Questions-about-playoff-criteria

[TypicalTribe]

The committee came out and said, after the selection show, that YSU wasn't chosen because they finished poorly and UNI wasn't because of enough conference wins.

They were clearly discussed.

Agreed, but what I'm saying is that it did not come down to YSU or UNI versus SHSU/SUU. They were taken out of the mix early on in the process for the reasons mentioned.

[penguinpower]

Ursus,

Ask them why they chose SHSU/SUU over YSU and UNI last year. Asked them for a detailed explanation. Ask them why they didn't follow the SRS formula in either case. We didn't get a satisfactory explanation last year.

[citdog]

Ursus,

Ask them why they chose SHSU/SUU over YSU and UNI last year. Asked them for a detailed explanation. Ask them why they didn't follow the SRS formula in either case. We didn't get a satisfactory explanation last year.

http://www.dvdbeaver.com/film/DVDReviews16/a%20Columbo%20-%20The%20Complete%203%20Season%20-%20Peter%20Falk%20Columbo%20DVD%20Review/a%20columbo%20season%203%20peter%20falk%20dvd%20re view%20PDVD_031.jpg

[robsnotes4u]

When you are comparing teams for an At-Large Bid is there a written process, or order of qualifications such as:
1. Record
2. Head-to-head
3. SRS
4. W/L against common opponents
5. etc.

Just a list for example

[grizband]

I'd be curious to know how referee crews are assigned, especially for the later rind games. I know they can't represent either team playing in a game, but would like information about selection beyond that criteria

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I'd be curious to know how referee crews are assigned, especially for the later rind games. I know they can't represent either team playing in a game, but would like information about selection beyond that criteria

Where the hell you been?

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Where the hell you been?

Nevermind, good to see ya. Starting another spin off into something else is not what I'm looking to do since I said I hope we can keep this one clean.

[MR. CHICKEN]

19991.......IN CASE AH MISSED IT SOMEWHERE ON BOARD........WHERE DOES DUH COMMITTEE ASSEMBLE?......SAME LOCATION EVERAH SEASON?........xrulesx...AWK!


ps.....2013 YOUNGSTOWN PLAYED DEY'RE WAY OUTTAH TOURNEY...WHIFF THREE STRAIGHT THUDS...IN FINAL THREE GAMES!

[REALBird]

Have they given any consideration to just ranking the top 24 teams and slotting them, as opposed to pairing teams based on geography. I'm sure that question has been asked, but I'm seconding the motion. LOL.

[JSUBison]

Couldn't they just up the bid amount to cover the extra hour in a plane to have a true seeding? For sake of argument, let's say NDSU is #1 seed and a MEAC at large and the Pioneer auto is 23 and 24 seeds. How much more money is it to fly the winner of that game to Fargo versus let's say New Hampshire? If each hosting school in the first round had to pay an extra 5,000 to host wouldn't that be enough? Where are the math people, help me out.

[clenz]

Couldn't they just up the bid amount to cover the extra hour in a plane to have a true seeding? For sake of argument, let's say NDSU is #1 seed and a MEAC at large and the Pioneer auto is 23 and 24 seeds. How much more money is it to fly the winner of that game to Fargo versus let's say New Hampshire? If each hosting school in the first round had to pay an extra 5,000 to host wouldn't that be enough? Where are the math people, help me out.
For arguments sake I did some looking, and it makes me second your question.

Right now Jacksonville is holding the AQ for the PFL (according to their website).

For someone to fly from Jacksonville to Fargo, first class, would cost $860.
Jacksonville to Manchester, NH (the one recommended by UNH actually) it is about 960

Now, I know teams don't fly first class on major airlines and what not. Cost wise there is almost no difference in the two for a regular person, and I would bet for a school chartering their own flights (is there an FCS team that doesn't?) the cost difference would be next to nothing.

To take it to about as extreme as you can get

San Diego to Fargo 1,111
San Diego to New Hampshire 1,100


JSUBison has a great question. Years/decades ago it made sense to rationalize. At this point is it fractional amount of cost savings actually offsetting having a true seeded tournament?

[JayJ79]

I would guess that the difference isn't in airfare comparison, but in plane vs. bus.
They try to arrange as many games between teams within 400 miles of each other b/c that means they only have to pay for bus travel, where as over 400 miles they have to pay for air travel.

[clenz]

I would guess that the difference isn't in airfare comparison, but in plane vs. bus.
They try to arrange as many games between teams within 400 miles of each other b/c that means they only have to pay for bus travel, where as over 400 miles they have to pay for air travel.
After the opening round?

Either regionallization only matters in round 1 or they are podding teams from the very start and then making selections/seeding to get "Western" teams with "western" teams later on and to regionalize them.

Do travel costs not matter in later rounds?

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Oh for god's sake.

[clenz]

Oh for god's sake.
I'm asking questions.

At this point, troy, your existing opinions of mvfc posters bleeds into everything we post regardless how legitimate it is.

You're so worked up about it at can't ask questions that we would like answers to without you pulling a response like that

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

[PantherRob82]

I'm asking questions.

At this point, troy, your existing opinions of mvfc posters bleeds into everything we post regardless how legitimate it is.

You're so worked up about it at can't ask questions that we would like answers to without you pulling a response like that

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

Yeah, ursus, and why don't you ever call me? :)

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I'm asking questions.

At this point, troy, your existing opinions of mvfc posters bleeds into everything we post regardless how legitimate it is.

You're so worked up about it at can't ask questions that we would like answers to without you pulling a response like that

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

Yes of course. It's me, not you. That last one about the regionalization and choosing based on western teams meeting up down the road is certainly something a legitimate guy should ask someone and expect them to provide a legitimate response to it.

My opinions of MVFC posters when not discussion playoffs is quite high clenzy.

[clenz]

Yes of course. It's me, not you. That last one about the regionalization and choosing based on western teams meeting up down the road is certainly something a legitimate guy should ask someone and expect them to provide a legitimate response to it.
Can't tell if serious


Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Yeah, ursus, and why don't you ever call me? :)

Never look back once you've broken up PR.

[PantherRob82]

Never look back once you've broken up PR.

We broke up? xconfusedx

Did I burn a bridge and don't remember? Feel free to PM me. ;)

[Houndawg]

There is regionalization and its not a hidden issue. This is for cost savings purposes in the early rounds to reduce travel expense as much as possible. Its been around as long as the playoffs. No one really likes it, but from a financial standpoint it makes sense.

And its a load of horsecrap. The NCAA wants to run these kids lives; they can afford to run this tournament right and they should do it. Maybe take some travel costs out of the executive bonus pool.xcoffeex

[WileECoyote06]

And its a load of horsecrap. The NCAA wants to run these kids lives; they can afford to run this tournament right and they should do it. Maybe take some travel costs out of the executive bonus pool.xcoffeex

But what about the fans of the teams involved? Those with as much of a vested interest in the program, as the players? With regionalization, they can see their teams play in the first or second round at a minimum.

[MDUNHfan]

But what about the fans of the teams involved? Those with as much of a vested interest in the program, as the players? With regionalization, they can see their teams play in the first or second round at a minimum.

I agree. Wife and I were able to make the first three playoff games last year. Would have made it to Fargo but it was cost prohibitive for us. Had we been able to make that game, there's a real possibility that there would have been an all CAA final. . . . . . Well, maybe a possibility that we get one more touchdown.

[Houndawg]

But what about the fans of the teams involved? Those with as much of a vested interest in the program, as the players? With regionalization, they can see their teams play in the first or second round at a minimum.

All of the play off games should be televised. I think it would do the FCS better if we could have some of the potentially great matchups that will never happen in the regular season.

[BisonFan02]

But what about the fans of the teams involved? Those with as much of a vested interest in the program, as the players? With regionalization, they can see their teams play in the first or second round at a minimum.

The attendance figures of those first round/regionalized games beg to differ...close or not, fans are not showing up that weekend with Thanksgiving.

[MTfan4life]

And its a load of horsecrap. The NCAA wants to run these kids lives; they can afford to run this tournament right and they should do it. Maybe take some travel costs out of the executive bonus pool.xcoffeex

I think you're making a much bigger deal than it needs to be. Regionalization could be far worse than it is. Last season South Dakota State and North Dakota State could have faced off in the championship game. That sort of thing would NEVER happen in DII. You can't even face a team outside of your own region until the final four in that level. Sure, the regional thing is unfortunate but it doesn't decrease any team's chance of being the champion. To win it all you still have to win the same amount of games regardless of who you play or where you play.

[tingly]

Five bus rides can save over a million bucks. The cash is in part used for other sport championships that run deep in the red.

[penguinpower]

I think you're making a much bigger deal than it needs to be. Regionalization could be far worse than it is. Last season South Dakota State and North Dakota State could have faced off in the championship game. That sort of thing would NEVER happen in DII. You can't even face a team outside of your own region until the final four in that level. Sure, the regional thing is unfortunate but it doesn't decrease any team's chance of being the champion. To win it all you still have to win the same amount of games regardless of who you play or where you play.

I agree however there is a little luck involved at times.