Coastal Carolina Chanticleers - Top 4 Seed Prediction?

[jmrepak]

There was a lot of discussion in multiple threads about my beloved Chanticleers this week. With 'Nova and Ill. St. falling today what is the current outlook for Coastal if they take care of business the rest of the way? I'm thinking an all D1 undefeated season lands them a 3 seed if the season ended today. I don't see many other teams with the potential to jump them based on what is left on the schedules.

[rokamortis]

I think a 2 or 3 is within reach - but need to take care of business. Good teams have fallen unexpectedly and don't want to become another statistic.

[knucklehead]

If they won out, I'm thinking a #2 or #3 as well. But since they'll lose to Liberty, Like #10

[NDSUSR]

4 or 5. No offense but they have had the easiest schedule on the planet.

[ElCid]

I would not look too far past Charlotte, they are an explosive team. Yeah they lost the last few, but they were all 1 score games. And while you might think they lost to us, G-W and CSU, they almost handled JMU last week as well. If you do win out, even if your schedule is a little weak, it is a given for at least a 3.

[tomq04]

1. NDSU
2. UNH
3. EWU
4. Villanova
5. CCH

[jmrepak]

4 or 5. No offense but they have had the easiest schedule on the planet.
I don't disagree that the schedule hasn't been the toughest, but our conference has been tougher than usual. Also, three things will resonate with the committee, and rightfully so: 1 -Full D1 schedule 2 - Undefeated and 3 - Assuming Liberty doesn't screw the pooch on Monmouth or Chuck South we should close out with a win over a top 15.

Remember, this is all assuming we take care of business and win out. All this conversation is moot if we don't do that vs Charlotte, Monmouth and Liberty

[Bisonwinagn]

JSU has a chance at a top 4 or higher seed as wel.

[jmrepak]

1. NDSU
2. UNH
3. EWU
4. Villanova
5. CCH
Even with EWU losing to an unranked you would seed them 3rd? I don't see that happening. Maybe if Montana squeaks into the top 10 this week and they handle them, but otherwise I see them with a 4 or 5 seed. The only teams that would seed above us in my opinion are obviously UNH and NDSU, and even though Nova lost today, it was to a top 10 team and they've had a strong schedule. That may still allow them to squeak back by us as well even though their last 3 opponents are pretty much a glide path.

[NDSUSR]

I don't disagree that the schedule hasn't been the toughest, but our conference has been tougher than usual. Also, three things will resonate with the committee, and rightfully so: 1 -Full D1 schedule 2 - Undefeated and 3 - Assuming Liberty doesn't screw the pooch on Monmouth or Chuck South we should close out with a win over a top 15.

Remember, this is all assuming we take care of business and win out. All this conversation is moot if we don't do that vs Charlotte, Monmouth and Liberty

Yes, 4-5 if you win out. An undefeated season has to be taken into account regardless of SOS, to a certain extent.

[FargoBison]

If VA comes back and EWU looks like the EWU of old, I would rank them over CCU and wouldn't think twice about it. If ISUR wins out, I would also rank them over CCU.

[centennial]

SOS is too weak to rate over 6, CCU gets a nice boost from the undefeated. The reality is that in the MVFC or CAA you guys are 2 loss team.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Even with EWU losing to an unranked you would seed them 3rd? I don't see that happening. Maybe if Montana squeaks into the top 10 this week and they handle them, but otherwise I see them with a 4 or 5 seed. The only teams that would seed above us in my opinion are obviously UNH and NDSU, and even though Nova lost today, it was to a top 10 team and they've had a strong schedule. That may still allow them to squeak back by us as well even though their last 3 opponents are pretty much a glide path.

Yes, because NAU will be a playoff team, and the loss was by 1 point, on the road, and we were without our (formerly) Payton front-runner QB. Also, SOS.

[MTfan4life]

4 or 5. No offense but they have had the easiest schedule on the planet.

In 2005, 11-0 Hampton was given the #3 seed. So, it's not like it hasn't been done before as Hampton had a weaker schedule that season than Coastal has had this year.

[rokamortis]

I would not look too far past Charlotte, they are an explosive team. Yeah they lost the last few, but they were all 1 score games. And while you might think they lost to us, G-W and CSU, they almost handled JMU last week as well. If you do win out, even if your schedule is a little weak, it is a given for at least a 3.

No doubt. I think Charlotte can be dangerous. We've seen good teams lose to teams they weren't supposed to so we just have to take it game by game and the team seems to be focused on that. I think they learned their lesson last year when CSU upset us.

[kalm]

Yes, because NAU will be a playoff team, and the loss was by 1 point, on the road, and we were without our (formerly) Payton front-runner QB. Also, SOS.

Looking at the remaining schedules, there's a decent chance NAU and SHSU win out and both would finish ranked along with 2 out of 3 between MSU, UM, and ISU. So we could have wins against 3 or 4 ranked opponents and losses to 6-3 Washington and a ranked NAU.

Right now it's a toss up between ISUr, Jacksonville State, CCU, Nova, Richmond, and EWU. I know the committee likes gaudy records, but JSU and Coastal's schedules are so damn week compared to the others. And if the committee does its job, the all DI thing should be somewhat meaningless. Drake has an all DI schedule too.

[WileECoyote06]

I don't disagree that the schedule hasn't been the toughest, but our conference has been tougher than usual. Also, three things will resonate with the committee, and rightfully so: 1 -Full D1 schedule 2 - Undefeated and 3 - Assuming Liberty doesn't screw the pooch on Monmouth or Chuck South we should close out with a win over a top 15.

Remember, this is all assuming we take care of business and win out. All this conversation is moot if we don't do that vs Charlotte, Monmouth and Liberty

On top of that A&T and SCSU are primed to finish off their season on three game winning streaks. They are in the ORV group in the Sports Network and the FCS Coaches poll, and like Liberty will be in the final poll. So CCU will be undefeated, have wins against three top Top-25 teams. A whole lot of AGSers are going to be Morgan State fans for a few weeks, as the Aggies and Bulldogs both host the Bears.

Jax. State is #6 in the Massey Composite and Massey rates their schedule stronger than either UNH or Villanova. @EKU is their toughest remaining game, and if they finish 10-1 (10-0 FCS); they will have two top-25 wins; with UTC looking like they may enter the Top-10. Jax State may be awarded a #2 seed.

If both CCU and Jax. State are awarded top-4 seeds, there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth on AGS. xlolx

[rokamortis]

If both CCU and Jax. State are awarded top-4 seeds, there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth on AGS. xlolx

And it has already started. xrotatehx

People trying to justify a teams with a top 4 seed when they have multiple losses, played a NAIA team, and their conference is rated 3rd or 4th best. It doesn't add up.

[WileECoyote06]

And it has already started. xrotatehx

People trying to justify a teams with a top 4 seed when they have multiple losses, played a NAIA team, and their conference is rated 3rd or 4th best. It doesn't add up.

If CCU had an FBS win they would be a#2 seed, easy.

[kalm]

And it has already started. xrotatehx

People trying to justify a teams with a top 4 seed when they have multiple losses, played a NAIA team, and their conference is rated 3rd or 4th best. It doesn't add up.

When your conference has 4 ranked teams (soon to be 5 or 6) and 6 receiving votes, and the #2 conference SOS, you can afford two losses and a lower division game.

Nodding.

- - - Updated - - -


And it has already started. xrotatehx

People trying to justify a teams with a top 4 seed when they have multiple losses, played a NAIA team, and their conference is rated 3rd or 4th best. It doesn't add up.



If CCU had an FBS win they would be a#2 seed, easy.

Agreed. That's what helped EIU last year.

[jmrepak]

When your conference has 4 ranked teams (soon to be 5 or 6) and 6 receiving votes, and the #2 conference SOS, you can afford two losses and a lower division game.

Nodding.
Our conference is ranked ahead of the Big Sky in every composite rating... try again.

[kalm]

And it has already started. xrotatehx

People trying to justify a teams with a top 4 seed when they have multiple losses, played a NAIA team, and their conference is rated 3rd or 4th best. It doesn't add up.



Our conference is ranked ahead of the Big Sky in every composite rating... try again.

Yep, barely and for now. You also have 6 teams and those Southern and MEAC wins will catch up.

Besides, I mentioned conference SOS, not overall ranking, so ummmm yeah, try again.

[jmrepak]

And it has already started. xrotatehx

People trying to justify a teams with a top 4 seed when they have multiple losses, played a NAIA team, and their conference is rated 3rd or 4th best. It doesn't add up.
There are always going to be doubters and people who want to talk down about Coastal. Especially on AGS where there are so many long time fans and posters of legacy programs. Don't take me as a whiner. I'm very happy that the pollsters have us in the top 5 here, but then we have to defend our team against people who constantly want to tear them down when it comes to seeding. NAU beat EWU and they weren't ranked. If the Lumberjacks were to be ranked at the end of the year they would be in the 20's which means the Eagles would have still lost to a lower level team. That's not a top 4 seed team when compared to undefeated teams or teams with narrow FBS losses. I can accept that 'Nova might get back by us after yesterday's loss to a top 10, but not EWU.

[jmrepak]

Yep, barely and for now. You also have 6 teams and those Southern and MEAC wins will catch up.

Besides, I mentioned conference SOS, not overall ranking, so ummmm yeah, try again.
SOS is great but if your conference isn't winning the games then it doesn't matter. A team with the toughest schedule in all of FCS is could still be winless yet you would tell me that they are really good because they played good opponents? That doesn't work.

[rokamortis]

There are always going to be doubters and people who want to talk down about Coastal. Especially on AGS where there are so many long time fans and posters of legacy programs. Don't take me as a whiner. I'm very happy that the pollsters have us in the top 5 here, but then we have to defend our team against people who constantly want to tear them down when it comes to seeding.

No doubt, people are always going to defend their best interest and the teams that they are more familiar with. Coastal is too new and disrupts the status quo. Our schedule doesn't help but the conference does (at least this year) so I think we'll be fine. Just have to prove it on the field when we face those teams in the playoffs.

Here's hoping the MEAC can get some things done (except when they play us) come playoff time as well.

[kdinva]

CCU finishes 12-0.........deserves a top-4.

[bodoyle]

How about this: who the he!! cares what people on AGS, CSD, CoastalFans etc think of the seedings . Whether we are seeded 2, 3, 4, 8, or not seeded, let's keep focusing on the next game, and if we make the playoffs we're going to have to beat good teams eventually to get to where we want to go.

[rokamortis]

How about this: who the he!! cares what people on AGS, CSD, CoastalFans etc think of the seedings . Whether we are seeded 2, 3, 4, 8, or not seeded, let's keep focusing on the next game, and if we make the playoffs we're going to have to beat good teams eventually to get to where we want to go.

xdrunkyx

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

CCU finishes 12-0.........deserves a top-4.


Agree.

12-0 is impressive for any team at this level.

CC went into one of the toughest venues last year, Montana, and won during the playoffs. Watching them last year in the FargoDome you could see they had some players. A 12-0 CC team is a top 4 seed this year.

[jmrepak]

How about this: who the he!! cares what people on AGS, CSD, CoastalFans etc think of the seedings . Whether we are seeded 2, 3, 4, 8, or not seeded, let's keep focusing on the next game, and if we make the playoffs we're going to have to beat good teams eventually to get to where we want to go.
I kind of care. It's all for discussions sake. We want to take care of business and always when the next game ahead of us no doubt, but the seedings matter to me because of home field advantage in the playoffs along with what side of the bracket we fall on. We have to beat good teams to earn respect (cold and loud), but with only 3 weeks left in the season these conversations are very quickly becoming relevant unlike they would have been 2 weeks ago.

[OL FU]

CCU finishes 12-0.........deserves a top-4.

This. and they will get one if the finish12-0.

[bodoyle]

Absolutely agree with you that seeding for home field advantage is very important. Just don't want you and Rok getting too po'd at what the curmudgeonly old men have to say on AGS ;)

[tomq04]

1. NDSU
2. UNH
3. EWU
4. Villanova
5. CCH

Now that I've slept let me defend my very short, uninformative and generally unhelpful post.

I wasn't thinking in terms of seeding, I was thinking in terms of power rankings. No one is holding that loss against us without VA, but of course it can cause a problem going into top 4 seeds so take this with a grain of salt.

If Coastal wins out then sure, they deserve top 4.

[jmrepak]

Absolutely agree with you that seeding for home field advantage is very important. Just don't want you and Rok getting too po'd at what the curmudgeonly old men have to say on AGS ;) Agreed. I won't tell you I've never overreacted to this board, but it's all for discussion. I try not to take it personally.

[Lehigh'98]

Interested to see the result vs Liberty. If you can beat them handily, you may be in line for top 4, with Nova losing yesterday.

[IBleedYellow]

How many players did Coastal return from last year's squad? They impressed me last year when they came to the dome and I am sure they have improved since.

Sent from a TI-83+ Calculator

[rokamortis]

How many players did Coastal return from last year's squad? They impressed me last year when they came to the dome and I am sure they have improved since.

Sent from a TI-83+ Calculator

We finally woke up a bit in the second half, but I'm surprised to see we impressed you. It wasn't even close to being competitive.

We return 16 starters with the biggest losses being the big RB and 3 starting WR from last year.

Our RB this year is really good, just not big. Our WRs are still growing into their starting roles but are improving. I think our defense has improved while our offense may have regressed a bit but it is very balanced.

[WileECoyote06]

We finally woke up a bit in the second half, but I'm surprised to see we impressed you. It wasn't even close to being competitive.

We return 16 starters with the biggest losses being the big RB and 3 starting WR from last year.

Our RB this year is really good, just not big. Our WRs are still growing into their starting roles but are improving. I think our defense has improved while our offense may have regressed a bit but it is very balanced.

98% of FCS teams are going to have to deal with this reality. If the MVFC is by far the best conference and NDSU is beating its conference mates by average of 22.4 points; than what hope do the rest of us have? That's why the argument over seeds and the last four playoff spots can be a bit silly at times. We're all just biding time until we crown the very first four-peat FCS champion. I'll believe otherwise when I see otherwise.

[JaxSinfonian]

Right now it's a toss up between ISUr, Jacksonville State, CCU, Nova, Richmond, and EWU. I know the committee likes gaudy records, but JSU and Coastal's schedules are so damn week compared to the others.

I'll grant you that Coastal's strength of schedule is at the back of the pack you mentioned. While Jax State's SOS isn't the best, calling it "so damn weak" compared to that bunch is hard to defend objectively. JSU's schedule is at least in the ballpark, according to the measures below and rates tougher than Richmond's, according to Massey. (Sagarin doesn't track DII, and Massey rates West Alabama higher than many FCS teams.) The toughest part of the Gamecocks' OVC schedule is the next two games; if they get a seed, that's when they'll earn it. If all these teams win out, though, and if SOS is the most important factor to consider, then the seed is ISUs by a long shot -- everyone else's schedule is so damn weak in comparison.

Massey's SOS ranking for each team
Illinois State - 135
Villanova - 153
Eastern Washington - 154
Jacksonville State - 161
Richmond - 162
Coastal Carolina - 197

Sagarin's SOS ranking for each team, with numeric value in parentheses
Illinois State - 143 (54.65)
Eastern Washington - 167 (51.38)
Villanova - 171 (50.83)
Richmond - 181 (49.67)
Jacksonville State - 189 (47.93)
Coastal Carolina - 203 (44.32)

[Screamin_Eagle174]

There are always going to be doubters and people who want to talk down about Coastal. Especially on AGS where there are so many long time fans and posters of legacy programs. Don't take me as a whiner. I'm very happy that the pollsters have us in the top 5 here, but then we have to defend our team against people who constantly want to tear them down when it comes to seeding. NAU beat EWU and they weren't ranked. If the Lumberjacks were to be ranked at the end of the year they would be in the 20's which means the Eagles would have still lost to a lower level team. That's not a top 4 seed team when compared to undefeated teams or teams with narrow FBS losses. I can accept that 'Nova might get back by us after yesterday's loss to a top 10, but not EWU.

Bump.

[jmrepak]

Bump.
I had posted that all of this was based on us winning out. We didn't and no one will sit here and argue that coastal should still get a top 4 seed. Thanks for rubbing salt in the fresh wound too. Damn it.

We shouldn't even be considered for top 4 at this point. Full Stop. We just hope to snag a 7.

[rokamortis]

I had posted that all of this was based on us winning out. We didn't and no one will sit here and argue that coastal should still get a top 4 seed. Thanks for rubbing salt in the fresh wound too. Damn it.

We shouldn't even be considered for top 4 at this point. Full Stop. We just hope to snag a 7.

He's been waiting weeks to bump the thread, let him have his fun.

[Bison56]

He's been waiting weeks to bump the thread, let him have his fun.
Don't worry about beagle he is chattowns brother.