LFN: Playoff Speculation

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I've had all these rambling thoughts about the odds for teams making the playoff field. I decided to put them on the blog:

http://lehighfootballnation.blogspot.com

OVC fans, you may want to give it a look. I think the chance of the OVC getting two bids is excellent as long as Eastern Illinois keeps winning.

[bandl]

Not a single game picked correctly last week in the A-10 :rolleyes: :confused:

#9 New Hampshire over #3 UMass. This is another game where the more desperate team takes the cake. Though the Wildcats have been struggling of late, I think they will respond here with a win that reminds us how good they actually are. New Hampshire wins and makes this A-10 title chase very interesting. Caged Wildcats 35, ZooMass 17.

Delaware over #4 James Madison. Playing another hunch, the Blue Hens respond after their heartbreaking defeat to Towson last week by upsetting the Dukes in a situation where they have nothing to lose. Very Blue Hens 32, Dukes 24.

#16 Richmond over Villanova. Richmond's in "every game is a playoff" mode, and shouldn't disappoint against Talley's squad. Villanova has already forgotten about football season at this point anyway. Spiders 31, "It's Basketball Season" 17.

Northeastern over #24 Maine. Maine is desperate, but I feel like scoring 0 points against hapless Rhode Island last week has to be an indicator of worse problems on this team. A surprisingly decent Northeastern team pulls off another upset. Surging Huskies 27, Falling Bears 14.

#25 Towson over William & Mary. Surging Towson has to believe that they have a great shot at the playoffs, and the struggling Tribe shouldn't stand in their way. Tigers 35, Tribe 17.

[Pards Rule]

Chuck, interesting stuff about the fair catch & onsides kick...Nov 18th awaits! GO PARDS!!!!!!

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Not a single game picked correctly last week in the A-10 :rolleyes: :confused:

xlolx Nice catch! Although I defy anyone who picked them all correctly, especially the William & Mary over Towson game. :D

[bandl]

xlolx Nice catch! Although I defy anyone who picked them all correctly, especially the William & Mary over Towson game. :D
So true!! I doubt that anyone seriously predicted Mary and Bill would win that game!
Although, I have said the Richmond is a suspect team from the beginning of the season, so the fact that they lost to Villanova did not surprise me at all.

[OL FU]

That is a nice write up and I think more accurate than TSN's predictions last week. You looked at it more from who is likely to win and therefore get in. I think Matt looked at it a little more from the standpoint of who he thought was the better team instead of who had the possibility of winning out.

Right wrong or otherwise, A better team with a 7-4 record from the BSC is not going to beat out a 8-3 team from one of the other power conferences.

Now my team just has to finish 8-3:eek:

[MiloCat]

#5: The third-placed team in the Gateway. Odds: 6-1. This looks strong since Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa play each other and both are fighting for 8-3 records. What could be a stumbling point, though is if UNI wins out and is looking for an at-large but but have a D-II loss to North Dakota to explain to the committee. That uncertainty brings these odds down.

If UNI wins out, they get the autobid.

Nice write up, though.:nod:

[WMTribe90]

So true!! I doubt that anyone seriously predicted Mary and Bill would win that game!
Although, I have said the Richmond is a suspect team from the beginning of the season, so the fact that they lost to Villanova did not surprise me at all.

I agree nobaody picked all the A10 games right last week, but lets not pick on WM here. WM has never lost to Towson, in fact WM has never come close to losing to Towson. WM has lost three conference games by a total of 9 points this season. The week before the offense finally showed sign of life when it put 31 points on the Wildcats. Of course hindsight is 20/20, but in hindsight the WM win should not be that shocking IMO.

[89Hen]

xlolx Nice catch! Although I defy anyone who picked them all correctly, especially the William & Mary over Towson game. :D
I was 20-2 in the GoHens.net pool and both misses were A10's (Towson and Richmond).

[bandl]

I agree nobaody picked all the A10 games right last week, but lets not pick on WM here. WM has never lost to Towson, in fact WM has never come close to losing to Towson. WM has lost three conference games by a total of 9 points this season. The week before the offense finally showed sign of life when it put 31 points on the Wildcats. Of course hindsight is 20/20, but in hindsight the WM win should not be that shocking IMO.

I wasn't aware that Mary and Bill hadn't ever lost to Towson. But I am aware that they lost their other two A-10 losses by a total of 55 points.

[Chucktown]

I've had all these rambling thoughts about the odds for teams making the playoff field. I decided to put them on the blog:

http://lehighfootballnation.blogspot.com

OVC fans, you may want to give it a look. I think the chance of the OVC getting two bids is excellent as long as Eastern Illinois keeps winning.

The only way for Tennessee State to finish 2nd in the OVC would be for EIU and Tenn Martin to both lose 1 of their remaining 2 games. If martin loses 1, and EIU wins out, all will have 1 conference loss. If EIU loses 1, and Martin wins out, EIU has beat TSU head to head

[Lehigh Football Nation]

The only way for Tennessee State to finish 2nd in the OVC would be for EIU and Tenn Martin to both lose 1 of their remaining 2 games. If martin loses 1, and EIU wins out, all will have 1 conference loss. If EIU loses 1, and Martin wins out, EIU has beat TSU head to head

If Martin loses 1 and EIU and Tennessee State win out, all three will have an equal chance at the autobid through a coin flip since all will have one conference loss.

If Martin wins out they get the autobid, and then EIU would get considered for the at-large - which, at 8-4, I think isn't a bad proposition, especially considering two I-A losses and losses to Illinois State and Martin. Tennessee State can only win by winning out an winning some coin flips.

[Chucktown]

If Martin loses 1 and EIU and Tennessee State win out, all three will have an equal chance at the autobid through a coin flip since all will have one conference loss.

If Martin wins out they get the autobid, and then EIU would get considered for the at-large - which, at 8-4, I think isn't a bad proposition, especially considering two I-A losses and losses to Illinois State and Martin. Tennessee State can only win by winning out an winning some coin flips.

But from what i've heard, through a system of scenarios, if EIU, TSU, and Martin have 1 loss, There will not be a coin flip. Since TSU and martin dont play each other, it will come down to common opponents... and then EIU would get the Auto.
I am not positive of this, but I was wondering if anyone else out there knows more of this.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Ralph, get Jon Steinbrecher on I-AA Waves... again. xlolx

[Chucktown]

lol//
It's just funny (well not really funny but awkward) that 2 years in a row the OVC could come down to a coin flip. Something just doesn't seem correct there...

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Bumping this to the top, maybe mercifully it will bump some San Diego threads off the front page.

[BobbyMo]

nice write up

[Torero Tradition]

What's amusing is the fact that Lehigh currently sits in first place in their conference with a legit shot at a playoff spot... but they go and lose to Princeton, Harvard, YALE (beat them by the most of the three IVY teams) and Albany. USD throttles Yale at Yale and everyone insists on that not meaning anything?!?! (WTF?) People are fine with Lehigh being a playoff team but not San Diego? Get a clue, you can complain about the USD schedule all you want... but they went out and handled their business, and whatever you think of their schedule doesn't reflect the fact that if you have ever seen this team in person, you would see that they are a legit playoff team.

[blur2005]

I'm surprised none of the Minutemen faithful pointed this out but UMass lost 21-20 to NAVY, not Army.

[UMass922]

What's amusing is the fact that Lehigh currently sits in first place in their conference with a legit shot at a playoff spot... but they go and lose to Princeton, Harvard, YALE (beat them by the most of the three IVY teams) and Albany. USD throttles Yale at Yale and everyone insists on that not meaning anything?!?! (WTF?) People are fine with Lehigh being a playoff team but not San Diego? Get a clue, you can complain about the USD schedule all you want... but they went out and handled their business, and whatever you think of their schedule doesn't reflect the fact that if you have ever seen this team in person, you would see that they are a legit playoff team.

Lehigh will only get in by winning their auto-bid conference, whereas San Diego needs to get an at-large bid. How Lehigh and San Diego stack up against each other is completely irrelevant, since no one is arguing that Lehigh would be deserving of an at-large.

[ngineer]

Lehigh will only get in by winning their auto-bid conference, whereas San Diego needs to get an at-large bid. How Lehigh and San Diego stack up against each other is completely irrelevant, since no one is arguing that Lehigh would be deserving of an at-large.

Beat me to it. Plus, USD would certainly get consideration over Holy Cross, the only PL school eligible for an at-large bid...

[Torero Tradition]

Since Lehigh actually played Yale and obviously other IVY teams... what do Lehigh fans honestly think of USD.... are they a playoff caliber team?

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Since Lehigh actually played Yale and obviously other IVY teams... what do Lehigh fans honestly think of USD.... are they a playoff caliber team?

It's impossible to tell based on one game and never actually seeing them play.

[Lafayette71]

Since Lehigh actually played Yale and obviously other IVY teams... what do Lehigh fans honestly think of USD.... are they a playoff caliber team?


I have to agree with the Toreros here. It's hard for most of us on the east coast here to make a judgement about the playoff worthiness of a team that doesn't share many common opponents with the teams they are being compared with as at large candidates. I don't think that any of the PL league teams are really worthy of an at large Bid. Holy cross could be eligible if Lehigh hangs on to the autobid, but based on the cumulative records of the PL opponents they will have beaten to ammass an 8-3 record, I'd have to say they won't have the strength of schedule to get in. Why not San Diego? There has been speculation about the merit of this team all year. I'd like to see how they stack up. Now that may seem unfair to some other 8-3 squads that many would argue are more deserving than an undeafeated San Diego team, but I think we know what these other bubble teams are about, and I don't think too many people would argue that someone with a legitmate shot at a championship would be left out if the torero's sneak into the last playoff spot.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Beat me to it. Plus, USD would certainly get consideration over Holy Cross, the only PL school eligible for an at-large bid...

I'm not so sure about this because Holy Cross has played a full D-I schedule. I also happen to believe Holy Cross and USD are more similar than people realize.

I think if USD played Holy Cross' schedule they'd have an 8-3 record too (losing to Harvard, N'Eastern and Lehigh). Both are passing teams, and Holy Cross beat the only non-scholarship team they faced (Marist) 27-0.

Conversely, I think if Holy Cross played USD's schedule they'd be 10-0 too.

The difference is Holy Cross played an all-D-I schedule and scheduled more challenging teams than USD. That's why they should be ahead of USD.

[LUHawker]

I'm not so sure about this because Holy Cross has played a full D-I schedule. I also happen to believe Holy Cross and USD are more similar than people realize.

I think if USD played Holy Cross' schedule they'd have an 8-3 record too (losing to Harvard, N'Eastern and Lehigh). Both are passing teams, and Holy Cross beat the only non-scholarship team they faced (Marist) 27-0.

Conversely, I think if Holy Cross played USD's schedule they'd be 10-0 too.

The difference is Holy Cross played an all-D-I schedule and scheduled more challenging teams than USD. That's why they should be ahead of USD.

Agreed. There were a number of years in the late '90s when we Lehigh fans took heat because we received a low playoff seeding despite records of 10-1, 11-0 and bitched & moaned about it. The issue was the SOS and LU didn't have it. This is absolutely the debate about USD. Their SOS is terrible and one win against Yale doesn't justify anything. That was also Yale's first game of the season.

[ngineer]

Agreed. There were a number of years in the late '90s when we Lehigh fans took heat because we received a low playoff seeding despite records of 10-1, 11-0 and bitched & moaned about it. The issue was the SOS and LU didn't have it. This is absolutely the debate about USD. Their SOS is terrible and one win against Yale doesn't justify anything. That was also Yale's first game of the season.

This is a close call. Yes, the win over Yale is impressive on the resume as Yale has had a very good year. Our game with Yale was frustrating because we did not play well at all and still almost won the game. That is the one game this year where we didn't' play well from beginning to end. The other losses have come after running to impressive leads and then easing off the throttle and letting opponent back in(Albany is a complete fluke given the conditions and the three bad snaps that set UA on the LU goaline. Today, we beat UA by 3 TDs.
That being said, Yale's loss to USD was the Bulldogs first game of the year and USD's third. A big advantage considering the Ivy also doesn't have the amount of preseason prep other I-AA's do. Still, they put up 44 points. To me I give the slight edge to USD over Holy Cross, because the Crusaders are so one-dimensional. Plus, HC has no decent OCC win, as does USD. The USD lament is the same as Lehigh's back in the late '90's. We finally got in and made some noise. I say give them their shot. Then it's put up or shut up....

[LUHawker]

The USD lament is the same as Lehigh's back in the late '90's. We finally got in and made some noise. I say give them their shot. Then it's put up or shut up....

Sorry, ngineer, but the the lament is different. We were not sitting on the outside of the playoffs looking in. We were in the playoffs. The rub was that we were getting shipped off to no man's land and other places despite excellent records. Keep in mind this is when all 16 teams were seeded. We were getting seeded low and having to go on the road, so the argument for not giving us a home game was that we had a weak schedule. Once we made some noise in the playoffs, we got some home games. It wasn't that we weren't worthy of being in the field

This is not the same as USD's argument, which is that they believe they are playoff-worthy.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

The USD lament is the same as Lehigh's back in the late '90's. We finally got in and made some noise. I say give them their shot. Then it's put up or shut up....


This is not the same as USD's argument, which is that they believe they are playoff-worthy.

I sort-of agree with you both. But I think the parallel that needs to end now is the following: that USD now is like Lehigh/Colgate/Holy Cross in the early '90s.

Ever since the beginning of the Patriot League, PL teams (especially those at the top) scheduled tough teams. Throw out the Ivy league for a second: Holy Cross used to always schedule UMass and Army; Lehigh played Army, Northeastern, UConn and New Hampshire; Lafayette played Army and Hofstra; Colgate played BU, Buffalo, Army, and Rutgers; Bucknell played Hofstra, Army, William & Mary.

I don't believe any Patriot League school ever scheduled multiple D-IIs at this time. The idea that the Patriot League was playing the "sisters of the poor" was largely perpetrated by certain head coaches who shall remain nameless (hint: the name rhymes with "Bubbly Damon").

USD, on the other hand, did not schedule Army/Rutgers/Buffalo/Hofstra or schools like that. Yes, they have scheduled Ivy league teams (Yale, Princeton, Penn) and Patriot teams (Holy Cross before the Tom Gilmore era, Georgetown). But for they haven't even tried to play a schedule which contains playoff or full-scholarship teams. Heck, even G'Town and Holy Cross only had 30-45 equivalencies when they played them.

I think the comparison of USD now and the Patriot League in the early '90s is phoney. The PL had a history of scheduling up to get respect league-wide. USD has never scheduled up in their Division I history.

[Torero Tradition]

USD has never scheduled up in their Division I history.

What? we have scheduled and beaten Montana... we have schedule Montana State three times, never beating them though.

Maybe the Griz should be prayin we don't get in... so they don't have to be a huge embearassment :p

[Pard4Life]

I'm not so sure about this because Holy Cross has played a full D-I schedule. I also happen to believe Holy Cross and USD are more similar than people realize.

I think if USD played Holy Cross' schedule they'd have an 8-3 record too (losing to Harvard, N'Eastern and Lehigh). Both are passing teams, and Holy Cross beat the only non-scholarship team they faced (Marist) 27-0.

Conversely, I think if Holy Cross played USD's schedule they'd be 10-0 too.

The difference is Holy Cross played an all-D-I schedule and scheduled more challenging teams than USD. That's why they should be ahead of USD.

Yes I hole-heartedily agree... and so does Matt Dougherty...

D-I schedule, and a stronger one at that, gets rewarded...

That is why Monmouth is above USD, even though the Hawks have lost a game.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

What? we have scheduled and beaten Montana... we have schedule Montana State three times, never beating them though.

Maybe the Griz should be prayin we don't get in... so they don't have to be a huge embearassment :p

Oh yes, those games in 1957, 1958, and 1959 really prove your point... :rolleyes: