Lack of 8-3 teams open up interesting playoff spots

[LU van]

Looks like San Diego will get their wish and the Big South champ looks like a lock for a playoff bid.

Del St, Monmouth, Big South #2, Towson, HC, Cal Poly, Gateway #3, all in the running for the last 2 playoff spots. Montana St could knock one of them out if the beat the Griz for the auto bid in the Big Sky.

Should make for a lot of conversation over the next two weeks.

xcoffeex

[Ronbo]

No one beats this Griz team the last two weeks. This team refuses to lose. We go 10-1 and the Big Sky gets 1 bid.

[rokamortis]

Well, the Big South could possibly endup in a 3-way tie still - so i think that scenario no team would get in. I do hope the Big South gets a team and finally breaks into the playoffs. But I'm not sure if Charleston Southern would be in at 11-0. They would only have 7 DI wins - thus putting them on the same level as other 7 win teams with much tougher schedules.

[walliver]

It's hard to see two Big South teams in the playoffs. If CCU beats CSU then CSU is out (no decent wins). If CSU wins then CCU is out (losses to two teams with losing records and Charleston Southern keeps them out). If CCU wins they are probably in, if CSU wins out then it's a toss up. I think SC State at #3 in the MEAC would have a more reasonable chance. CSU would have seven "Division I" wins, but would the committee count the game against non-scholarship Georgetown. I don't care what the rules say, it's what the Committee says that counts.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Don't forget the A-10. If Maine loses to UMass and beats UNH the following week (and Towson loses to EITHER JMU OR Richmond), the A-10 will only have one at-large bid, opening up a third playoff spot. The Gateway is messier, but there is also a chance of only one at-large bid there too.

As for Coastal/Chuck South, I tend to agree - if Coastal beats Chuck South, they're in. If Chuck South beats coastal, it's a toss-up. If Coastal wins, Chuck South is out since they don't have enough D-I wins.

I'd handicap the race for the final 4 playoff spots as follows.

Gateway #3
Coastal
A-10 #3
Cal Poly
Delaware State
Monmouth
Holy Cross
San Diego
Chuck South
A-10 #4 (basically, Towson winning out)
Gateway #4 (basically, UNI winning the autobid)

[barechestcat]

better start talking about what happens when the Bobcats beat the Griz because IT IS going to happen. :nod:

[LU van]

I think San Diego and Big South champ are a lock and it is really the last 2 spots that are up for grabs.

Del St should be favored for one of them if they continue to win and Cal Poly can control their own destiny if they win out.

Bound to be some suprise next week.

[PantherRob82]

Never rule out UNI for the autobid. They've gotta make some improvements these last 2 weeks, but we've seen it done before.

[cosmo here]

I think San Diego and Big South champ are a lock and it is really the last 2 spots that are up for grabs.

Del St should be favored for one of them if they continue to win and Cal Poly can control their own destiny if they win out.

Bound to be some suprise next week.

why do you think they are a lock for the fifth and sixth at-large spots when San Diego will have 8 DI wins (7 in the PFL) and Charleston Southern will have 7, and the committee has always emphasized playing a DI schedule in the past? (see Lafayette over Youngstown State last year)

[UMass922]

Don't forget the A-10. If Maine loses to UMass and beats UNH the following week (and Towson loses to EITHER JMU OR Richmond), the A-10 will only have one at-large bid, opening up a third playoff spot. The Gateway is messier, but there is also a chance of only one at-large bid there too.

As for Coastal/Chuck South, I tend to agree - if Coastal beats Chuck South, they're in. If Chuck South beats coastal, it's a toss-up. If Coastal wins, Chuck South is out since they don't have enough D-I wins.

I'd handicap the race for the final 4 playoff spots as follows.

Gateway #3
Coastal
A-10 #3
Cal Poly
Delaware State
Monmouth
Holy Cross
San Diego
Chuck South
A-10 #4 (basically, Towson winning out)
Gateway #4 (basically, UNI winning the autobid)

Don't forget about Eastern Illinois. If EIU wins its last two games (against Tennessee Tech and Jacksonville State), the Panthers will be 8-4 against a full D-I slate, with two of those losses against I-A teams (Illinois and Hawaii), and their other two non-conference games against the Gateway (a loss to Illinois State and a win over Indiana State). An 8-2 EIU is a no-brainer choice over Delaware State, Monmouth, Holy Cross, San Diego, and Charleston Southern. It seems everyone wrote off the OVC as a one-bid league too early and didn't bother to pay attention anymore. (In fact, if Tennessee State had beaten EIU yesterday, they would be very much alive for an at-large now.)

Anyway, LU van's notion than USD and CSU are locks for at-larges is ridiculous. Neither of those teams has a prayer. If they finish undefeated, they will be 8- and 7-win teams respectively, and will lose bids to teams with the same number of wins against much stronger schedules.

[Ol Blue]

There are at least four reasons why I think the winner of the Big South will receive a bid to the playoffs---even if it is Chuck South:
1) The Big South is an up and coming conference that is developing performers and adding teams....gaining respect. The winner of that conference will receive more consideration than another non-conference winner.
2) Chuck South will have an undefeated record that carries a certain amount of respect...even if the schedule is not up to par in all areas.
3) Chuck South is also carrying the longest (I think) undefeated record from both seasons....which is likely to be noticed.
4) Saying that CCU by winning gets a bid (which we all agree with) that they deserve by winning but that CSU, if they beat them, doesn't deserve to go loses a certain amount of logic. After all, playoff bids do take into account the way teams are at the end of a season more than how they are at the beginning....like a photo winning snapshot. Finishing well always accounts for something.

[rokamortis]

Ol Blue I see where you are coming from - but I think you are missing the point that CSU would be considered a 7 win team. If the committee is going to accept a 7 win team then there are plenty of others that have that same record against tougher opponents. Playing 4 non-DI games will hurt your chances. I could be wrong, but I don't see it happening.

[Torero Tradition]

There are at least four reasons why I think the winner of the Big South will receive a bid to the playoffs---even if it is Chuck South:
1) The Big South is an up and coming conference that is developing performers and adding teams....gaining respect. The winner of that conference will receive more consideration than another non-conference winner.
2) Chuck South will have an undefeated record that carries a certain amount of respect...even if the schedule is not up to par in all areas.
3) Chuck South is also carrying the longest (I think) undefeated record from both seasons....which is likely to be noticed.
4) Saying that CCU by winning gets a bid (which we all agree with) that they deserve by winning but that CSU, if they beat them, doesn't deserve to go loses a certain amount of logic. After all, playoff bids do take into account the way teams are at the end of a season more than how they are at the beginning....like a photo winning snapshot. Finishing well always accounts for something.

San Diego isn't a lock... but we are hopefull! How many games has Chuck South won in a row... I think going back to last year USD is at 17 or so? I'd have to check. Good luck the rest of the way Chuck South...

[CSU BUCS]

San Diego isn't a lock... but we are hopefull! How many games has Chuck South won in a row... I think going back to last year USD is at 17 or so? I'd have to check. Good luck the rest of the way Chuck South...

14 wins in a row. you guys are ahead of us. I think we are the only two undefeated teams in the country. I may be wrong though.

[OL FU]

The only way Charleston Southern gets in is if an earthquake causes a quarter of the country to disappear. :eyebrow:

[downbythebeach]

Big South is def up and coming
I think they deserve, but old thinking might not let that happen.

[*****]

Big South is def up and coming
I think they deserve, but old thinking might not let that happen.
is "old thinking" that four non-D-I games is too many to make the playoffs?

[downbythebeach]

No by that I meant that potentially beating the rest of the Big South teams (all of them legit I-AA teams) is not enough to prove that you are playoff worthy?

[OL FU]

Big South is def up and coming
I think they deserve, but old thinking might not let that happen.

Old thinking
Old Guard
Old BS is what it is becoming from the people that use those terms.

I have pretty much sat quietly on the San Diego discussion. But if a team gets in with Charleston Southern schedule then I am going to petition Furman's athletic department to go I-A. :eyebrow:

[*****]

Old thinking
Old Guard
Old BS is what it is becoming from the people that use those terms...X_______________________ co-sign

[downbythebeach]

Come on now
A potentially undefeated I-AA team from an improving scholly conference is not good enough to be in a 16 team playoff, to make room for possibly a fourth place team from another conference. You already are in I-A.

[UMass922]

A potentially undefeated I-AA team from an improving scholly conference is not good enough to be in a 16 team playoff, to make room for possibly a fourth place team from another conference.

Any team that has as many or more wins than CSU and plays in a conference as good or better than the Big South deserves to be in the playoffs ahead of the Bucs. And there will almost certainly be enough such teams to fill out the playoff field and keep CSU out. The playoff selection committee guidelines make very clear that teams that play full D-I schedules are privileged over teams that don't.

[dbackjon]

Old thinking
Old Guard
Old BS is what it is becoming from the people that use those terms.

I have pretty much sat quietly on the San Diego discussion. But if a team gets in with Charleston Southern schedule then I am going to petition Furman's athletic department to go I-A. :eyebrow:

X____________

[dbackjon]

Come on now
A potentially undefeated I-AA team from an improving scholly conference is not good enough to be in a 16 team playoff, to make room for possibly a fourth place team from another conference. You already are in I-A.

No - it is the FOUR - that's right 1, 2, 3, 4 Division II or lower teams on CSU's schedule. CSU deserves consideration based on their I-AA wins - along with any other 7 win team. Then you could match them up against a 7 win Portland State or Montana State, and see who is more deserving.....

[GrizRchattybound]

better start talking about what happens when the Bobcats beat the Griz because IT IS going to happen. :nod:

wipe the dribble off your chin elmer.

[UAalum72]

Why do people keep bringing Del St. up for an at-large? Their only D-I OOC win is against St. Francis. Played a D-II. Lost by 20 to Northwestern St. Heck, not counting transitional Winston-Salem, which joins them next year, the whole MEAC has only 1 win against a D-I with a winning record (FAMU OT win over Tenn. St.). That's a whole league without an OOC win as good as (let me duck for cover) San Diego's, let alone the NEC.

Could it be because they're from (to use a new term) one of the 'classic' conferences instead of a 'fresh' one?

[UMass922]

Why do people keep bringing Del St. up for an at-large? Their only D-I OOC win is against St. Francis. Played a D-II. Lost by 20 to Northwestern St. Heck, not counting transitional Winston-Salem, which joins them next year, the whole MEAC has only 1 win against a D-I with a winning record (FAMU OT win over Tenn. St.). That's a whole league without an OOC win as good as (let me duck for cover) San Diego's, let alone the NEC.

Could it be because they're from (to use a new term) one of the 'classic' conferences instead of a 'fresh' one?

I agree with you; DSU is not a playoff team. Being in an auto-bid conference is probably why they're getting a look. I'd still take them over San Diego or Charleston Southern, but I think there will be plenty of other teams more deserving of an at-large spot.

[AppGuy04]

Come on now
A potentially undefeated I-AA team from an improving scholly conference is not good enough to be in a 16 team playoff, to make room for possibly a fourth place team from another conference. You already are in I-A.


Replace those 4 sub-DI games with:

New Hampshire (4th in A10)
Western Kentucky (4th in Gateway)
UC-Davis (4th in Great West)
Central Connecticut St (5th in NEC)

I guarantee you they wouldn't be 11-0 with that schedule, hell, they would struggle to win one of those.:rolleyes:

Lets just hope Coastal whips Chuck like they should and this isn't an argument

[ervgotti2]

its shocking that no one takes the ohio valley seriously if any teams is worthy of an at-large bid it's Easterm Illinois

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Revised my personal "handicapping" with Eastern Illinois' handicap for the final at-large.

Gateway #3
Coastal
A-10 #3
Cal Poly
Eastern Illinois
Delaware State
Monmouth
Holy Cross
San Diego
Chuck South
A-10 #4 (basically, Towson winning out)
Gateway #4 (basically, UNI winning the autobid)

[AZGrizFan]

is "old thinking" that four non-D-I games is too many to make the playoffs?

Which is why I shook up my poll a little this week....dropping CSU and USD.....after much consideration, I began seriously taking SOS into consideration, and had some big movement DOWNWARD, even amongst some winners.

[*****]

Why do people keep bringing Del St. up for an at-large? Their only D-I OOC win is against St. Francis. Played a D-II. Lost by 20 to Northwestern St. Heck, not counting transitional Winston-Salem, which joins them next year, the whole MEAC has only 1 win against a D-I with a winning record (FAMU OT win over Tenn. St.). That's a whole league without an OOC win as good as (let me duck for cover) San Diego's, let alone the NEC.
Could it be because they're from (to use a new term) one of the 'classic' conferences instead of a 'fresh' one?Which 'fresh' one has more than one win OOC against D-I teams with a winning record?

[Death Dealer]

The danger as I see it with a team with a weak schedule getting in (e.g. USD) is how it will affect future scheduling. If a team can get in from a creampuff conference playing a creampuff OOC schedule, simply because all of the teams who scheduled tougher more deserving schedules are beaten up (as you would expect from tougher schedules), then won't that make it more tempting for AD's and coaches to load their OOC schedules with pansy games to pad their records? I mean, why worry about SOS! Look at the 2206 Torrero's! They got in with that weak ass schedule...and we've got all the tough conference games...let's see if (insert name) Community College wants to come over from across town and get an ass whipping for a paycheck....now that is really starting to sound like I-A.

[downbythebeach]

Which 'fresh' one has more than one win OOC against D-I teams with a winning record?

Big South...their pretty tough and have been playing well against the SoCon

[*****]

Big South...their pretty tough and have been playing well against the SoConThe Big South is 'fresh'????? How so? Last year it was said by the playoff committee chair that CCU was in with a win. Why are they 'fresh' this year?

[grayghost06]

Don't forget about Eastern Illinois. If EIU wins its last two game (against Tennessee Tech and Jacknsonville State), the Panthers will be 8-4 against a full D-I slate, with two of those losses against I-A teams (Illinois and Hawaii), and their other two non-conference games against the Gateway (a loss to Illinois State and a win over Indiana State). An 8-2 EIU is a no-brainer choice over Delaware State, Monmouth, Holy Cross, San Diego, and Charleston Southern. It seems everyone wrote off the OVC as a one-bid league too early and didn't bother to pay attention anymore. (In fact, if Tennessee State had beaten EIU yesterday, they would be very much alive for an at-large now.)

Anyway, LU van's notion than USD and CSU are locks for at-larges is ridiculous. Neither of those teams has a prayer. If they finish undefeated, they will be 8- and 7-win teams respectively, and will lose bids to teams with the same number of wins against much stronger schedules....From a JMU standpoint...I sure like the idea of playing any of these teams than the ones that were being mentioned last week. Boy, the A 10 and Gateway are both cannibalizing their playoff teams.

[AppGuy04]

Big South...their pretty tough and have been playing well against the SoCon

The Big South IS Coastal Carolina. Every other team in that conference would be a cellar dweller in the A10, or SoCon.

[Chi Panther]

...From a JMU standpoint...I sure like the idea of playing any of these teams than the ones that were being mentioned last week. Boy, the A 10 and Gateway are both cannibalizing their playoff teams.

We enjoy the auto-bid.....but also curse the snub......ie YSU 8-3 last year.....

[CopperCat]

No one beats this Griz team the last two weeks. This team refuses to lose. We go 10-1 and the Big Sky gets 1 bid.

How about the game gets played first? MSU hasn't lost yet, give us our chance!

[redbirdtim]

If EIU is up against the #3 from the Gateway for a playoff spot and it is Illinois St., Panthers don't get in. If the 'Birds win the conference/finish 9-2, EIU has a better shot to get in. The interesting thing about playing one more game than anyone else and the game being against a I-A, the selection committee has a choice, is 8-4 with two I-A losses worse than 8-3 with one I-A loss?

[*****]

... the selection committee has a choice, is 8-4 with two I-A losses worse than 8-3 with one I-A loss?Losses are losses in D-I. Schools choose their own poison. :twocents: Fact is EIU, like PSU etc. has four D-I losses. Of course PSU (which has a I-A win and two I-A losses) still has to beat Sacramento St as EIU has to win against Tenn Tech and Jacksonville St to maintain only four losses.

[Chucktown]

we def hope ISU wins out, and as big as possible....

[UAalum72]

Which 'fresh' one has more than one win OOC against D-I teams with a winning record?
OK I didn't realize the 'great powers' that the NEC beat sucked so bad this year. But the NEC has beaten Lehigh (5-4) and Morgan St., a .500 club (5-5) out of six wins vs. auto-bid conference teams who have a total of 22 wins. The MEAC's resume is OT over Tenn. St (5-4) and wins over VMI (1 win), Grambling (3 wins), and 'full-scholarship' indy Savannah St (1 non-D-I win) for a total of 10 wins.

Now somebody answer the question, what has anybody in the MEAC done to warrant an at-large bid?

[AppGuy04]

Now somebody answer the question, what has anybody in the MEAC done to warrant an at-large bid?

Nothing, Hampton would be the only team that would get an at-large bid b/c of their national ranking. But its looking like they will get the autobid. The MEAC is a one bid league IMO this year.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Now somebody answer the question, what has anybody in the MEAC done to warrant an at-large bid?

They didn't lose to 2-7 Fordham or 5-5 Stony Brook (who did lose to 2-7 Georgetown). A team like Delaware State scheduled a schedule with one tough game at Northwestern State, a D-II patsy and St. Francis of the NEC to go with their league schedule. They lost their stretch game travelling to one of the toughest places to play (NW St.), and unlike the rest of the teams in the NEC won their games against some 2-7 competition.

[UAalum72]

They didn't lose to 2-7 Fordham or 5-5 Stony Brook (who did lose to 2-7 Georgetown). A team like Delaware State scheduled a schedule with one tough game at Northwestern State, a D-II patsy and St. Francis of the NEC to go with their league schedule. They lost their stretch game travelling to one of the toughest places to play (NW St.), and unlike the rest of the teams in the NEC won their games against some 2-7 competition.
I'm not really arguing for the NEC. I just don't see that Del St. has done anything to get a look for an at-large. People don't give much to USD for beating Yale, but you'll take a DSU whose only D-I OOC win is against St. Francis?

[AppGuy04]

but you'll take a DSU whose only D-I OOC win is against St. Francis?

if they played in the Gateway, but no in the MEAC, no way

[89Hen]

Don't forget the A-10. If Maine loses to UMass and beats UNH the following week (and Towson loses to EITHER JMU OR Richmond), the A-10 will only have one at-large bid, opening up a third playoff spot.
How about the fact that the A10 could have two teams with I-A wins sitting home?

[dbackjon]

How about the fact that the A10 could have two teams with I-A wins sitting home?


So could the Big Sky (Portland St and Montana State)

[Chi Panther]

SIU beat Indiana....they might be at home......

09/02 W Michigan W 39-20
09/09 at Ball St W 24-23
09/16 S Illinois L 35-28
09/23 UConn L 14-7
09/30 Wisconsin L 52-17
10/07 at Illinois W 34-32
10/14 #15 Iowa W 31-28
10/21 at #1 Ohio St L 44-3
10/28 Mich St W 46-21
11/04 at Minnesota L 63-26
11/11 #2 Michigan 3:30 PM
11/18 at Purdue TBD

[Lehigh Football Nation]

What about the converse of this? An 8-3 team with a D-II *loss* could be in the running for an at-large bid. What do you do with Northern Iowa if they go 8-3? Do you punish them for losing to a powerul D-II (that will be in I-AA very very soon) or do you reward them for beating Youngstown, Southern Illinois, Illinois State, South Dakota State?

As for Delaware State, they deserve a look simply because they have put together an OK (not great) schedule and play in a I-AA full-scholarship conference and WON THOSE GAMES. There are going to be precious few teams out there with 8 D-I wins, and Delaware State is one of them. (Holy Cross is another.) Personally I think their two losses - one to nationally-ranked Hampton and on the road at Northwestern State - certainly are not "bad" losses. Losing to NC A&T would be different, but if you go 9-2 wth their schedule you should, in my mind, deserve consideration.

[Pard4Life]

Holy Cross does not deserve anything, although they are fun to watch.

[UAalum72]

As for Delaware State, they deserve a look simply because they have put together an OK (not great) schedule and play in a I-AA full-scholarship conference and WON THOSE GAMES. There are going to be precious few teams out there with 8 D-I wins, and Delaware State is one of them. (Holy Cross is another.) Personally I think their two losses - one to nationally-ranked Hampton and on the road at Northwestern State - certainly are not "bad" losses. Losing to NC A&T would be different, but if you go 9-2 wth their schedule you should, in my mind, deserve consideration.
D-II Concord, 2-7 St. Francis UPA, and 4-4 NW St. (1 win vs. D-II) is an "OK" schedule? Not what we usually hear you're supposed to do (schedule the big boys and beat 'em) to get an at-large.

[bkrownd]

As for Delaware State, they deserve a look simply because they have put together an OK (not great) schedule and play in a I-AA full-scholarship conference and WON THOSE GAMES. There are going to be precious few teams out there with 8 D-I wins, and Delaware State is one of them. (Holy Cross is another.) Personally I think their two losses - one to nationally-ranked Hampton and on the road at Northwestern State - certainly are not "bad" losses. Losing to NC A&T would be different, but if you go 9-2 wth their schedule you should, in my mind, deserve consideration.

Put down the crack pipe Harold, they're an also-ran in a 1-bid conference and haven't beat anybody of note yet.

It's funny that the biggest story in San Diego will be whether Yale can close out the season by beating ranked Princeton and Harvard to boost USD into the playoff picture.