At-Large Bids per Conference

[TypicalTribe]

Simply because I've got nothing better to do.

Big Sky - 3
Big South - 1
CAA - 2
MEAC - 1
MVFC - 3
NEC - 0
OVC - 1
Patriot - 0
PFL - 0
SLC - 1
SoCon - 1

Discuss

[superman7515]

Big South - Nope
MEAC - If BCU takes care of business, nope

[melloware13]

Might be a slight homer thought, but I'd flip Big Sky and CAA. I see Nova, UNH, W&M, and UR getting in as of now (one getting the auto bid). I would have it between NAU and MSU for the second Big Sky at large, behind EWU and UM (one getting the auto).

[Big Dawg]

Big South - Nope
MEAC - If BCU takes care of business, nope

You don't think A&T, who doesn't play BCU this year, and has the 1 point loss to #5 Coastal Carolina(who FAMU will beat this weekend xthumbsupx) won't slide in, if they run through everybody else and finishes 11-1...although they won't because FAMU will beat them too, so we'll say 10-2 LOL

[MTfan4life]

Simply because I've got nothing better to do.

Big Sky - 3
Big South - 1
CAA - 2
MEAC - 1
MVFC - 3
NEC - 0
OVC - 1
Patriot - 0
PFL - 0
SLC - 1
SoCon - 1

Discuss

I don't think the Big Sky will get 3 at-large bids this season. Of course, it's possible with the wide range of schedules and if the teams do what they need to do. However, I don't think it will happen. It's definitely a down year for the conference as a whole. I'd say that there are only about 4 or 5 teams that have a shot.

[Ghost]

Big south won't have one unless liberty wins the conference.

[McNeese72]

http://youtu.be/p3-eavMSBnk

A little early, yet!!

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Lafayette with a win this week over William & Mary will get back into the mix. Fordham with a win over Army to offset a league loss will get in at 10-2 imo....

[PAllen]

Lehigh - No
Georgetown - No
Bucknell - Probably not
HC - Maybe
Colgate - Maybe
Lafayette - Maybe
Fordham - Maybe

PFL - No
MNFC - yes
CAA - yes
SoCon - probably
BSC - yes
Southland - probably
OVC - Maybe
MEAC - Maybe
Big South - Probably Not

That's about as specific as I can get at the moment. Check back in six-eight weeks when it matters.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Lehigh - No
Georgetown - No
Bucknell - Probably not
HC - Maybe
Colgate - Maybe
Lafayette - Maybe
Fordham - Maybe

PFL - No
MNFC - yes
CAA - yes
SoCon - probably
BSC - yes
Southland - probably
OVC - Maybe
MEAC - Maybe
Big South - Probably Not

That's about as specific as I can get at the moment. Check back in six-eight weeks when it matters.

If Lehigh were to beat Fordham, lose to Holy Cross(?) and beat a good Lafayette team in 150 they have a shot imo. Colgate and Lehigh should end up with a solid schedule strength. An 8-3 Colgate or Lehigh would definitely be in the mix imo....

[rokamortis]

The Big South is the 3rd strongest conference according to the Massey Composite - we should get at least 3.




In all seriousness - I could see 1 depending on how things play out. People are forgetting about Monmouth who looks to be better than initially thought.

I think Coastal and Monmouth are the only teams to have a legit shot at an at-large just based on schedule (no-sub DI games). Liberty has an outside shot and CSU none. I don't see any of the other teams being strong enough.

[rokamortis]

The SoCon doesn't deserve an at-large.

[Twentysix]

MVFC deserves 9.

http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/250x250/51774665.jpg

[dudeitsaid]

Might be a slight homer thought, but I'd flip Big Sky and CAA. I see Nova, UNH, W&M, and UR getting in as of now (one getting the auto bid). I would have it between NAU and MSU for the second Big Sky at large, behind EWU and UM (one getting the auto).

I agree with this. After last years performance by the BSC at larges, and what I would call a lackluster OOC performance overall so far this year, as well as the fact it seems the BSC has slid down the respect ladder in the various polls grading conference strength, I don't see us getting more than three. And even then, we may have three because some of the records will be strong versus weaker competition. Then again, some of last years bottom feeders are showing some semblance of improvement, so it could still be an interesting regular season. I actually could see the BSC only getting two, especially depending on the performance of other teams from other conferences.

That being said, what is better, being in the MVFC, where the teams will beat up on each other, and maybe be battle tested, but also potentially be damaged by the challenging conference play, or be the top of a mediocre conference where maybe some of those risks will be slightly mitigated, and more players will get reps because some of those games won't be in question towards the end? Of course, that's probably just wishful thinking on my part, as some of the weaker teams really played EWU tough last year, with that being their season highlight and all.

[dudeitsaid]

MVFC deserves 9.

http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/250x250/51774665.jpg

Not by the end of the season, when all that's left uninjured is the third string.

[Twentysix]

Not by the end of the season, when all that's left uninjured is the third string.

The players that are in their senior season of highschool that will join the MVFC next year as redshirts could beat your team by 500 points. #Getonourlevelbro

[dudeitsaid]

The players that are in their senior season of highschool that will join the MVFC next year as reshirts could beat your team by 500 points. #Getonourlevelbro

Hey, ever since you guys loaned your second string players to the Seahawks for the Superbowl, I'm a fan! If the MVFC faltered, football would no longer be relevant in the US.

[Twentysix]

Hey, ever since you guys loaned your second string players to the Seahawks for the Superbowl, I'm a fan! If the MVFC faltered, football would no longer be relevant in the US.

You guys should consider joining the MVFC D-league.

Your offense's style would be good for our scrims.

Seriously though, I'll be surprised if we get 3 teams in. So 1 for sure for the MVFC maybe 2.

[WileECoyote06]

You don't think A&T, who doesn't play BCU this year, and has the 1 point loss to #5 Coastal Carolina(who FAMU will beat this weekend xthumbsupx) won't slide in, if they run through everybody else and finishes 11-1...although they won't because FAMU will beat them too, so we'll say 10-2 LOL

A&T could conceivably finish 10-2 and still get in. They'd have one conference loss and likely tie for the title. I don't believe BCU has enough to go undefeated in conference this season.

[Bogus Megapardus]

Just like last year, the Patriot always is in a position to ruin some much more-deserving conference's chances by sporting a 10-2 team that loses the conference auto-bid because of a tie-breaker.

[Lehigh'98]

If Lehigh were to beat Fordham, lose to Holy Cross(?) and beat a good Lafayette team in 150 they have a shot imo. Colgate and Lehigh should end up with a solid schedule strength. An 8-3 Colgate or Lehigh would definitely be in the mix imo....

Your confidence in Lehigh this year is homerish. Their defense stinks and they won't sniff 9-3. If they had a winning PL record this year, I'd consider that a success.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Your confidence in Lehigh this year is homerish. Their defense stinks and they won't sniff 9-3. If they had a winning PL record this year, I'd consider that a success.

I don't think I've put a whole lot of confidence in Lehigh. Pretty much just talking hypotheticals.....

[Lehigh'98]

Sorry then, I misunderstood your post. I think u saw what I did against UNH. We will struggle w any team that is big and physical on the Oline. Just don't have the horses upfront like years past.

[BucBisonAtLarge]

I would like to see the case for why the SoCon would get that at-large bid. I don't see it, unless someone gets hot and wins steals an FBS win.

Fordham's trouncing at the hands of Villanova would seem to dim their chances at an at-large bid should they not win the PL. A win at Army could redeem that first week shellacking in the eyes of the committee. The PL is otherwise a one-bid conference.

[Beachdude]

The Big South is the 3rd strongest conference according to the Massey Composite - we should get at least 3.

In all seriousness - I could see 1 depending on how things play out. People are forgetting about Monmouth who looks to be better than initially thought.

I think Coastal and Monmouth are the only teams to have a legit shot at an at-large just based on schedule (no-sub DI games). Liberty has an outside shot and CSU none. I don't see any of the other teams being strong enough.


xthumbsupx I agree.

[WestCoastAggie]

A&T will be in the playoffs this year. xcoolx

[Redbirdz]

OVC gets two bids

[bjtheflamesfan]

Its going to be either Liberty, Coastal Carolina or both...I don't think anyone else sniffs a bid

[Cocky]

MVC 3
BSC 2
CAA 2
NE 1
OVC 1
SOCON 1
SFL 1
last 2
battle royale for the two available spots

key games:
Bryant v Liberty
Sacred Heart v Delaware
Liberty v ISUb, Richmond and App St
Missouri St. v Central Arkansas

MVCs OCC record will give them the most spots this year unless everyone goes 500 in league play.

[WileECoyote06]

Its going to be either Liberty, Coastal Carolina or both...I don't think anyone else sniffs a bid

And if so about damn time (for Liberty).

[rokamortis]

MVC 3
BSC 2
CAA 2
NE 1
OVC 1
SOCON 1
SFL 1
last 2
battle royale for the two available spots

key games:
Bryant v Liberty
Sacred Heart v Delaware
Liberty v ISUb, Richmond and App St
Missouri St. v Central Arkansas

MVCs OCC record will give them the most spots this year unless everyone goes 500 in league play.

What is the justification for the SoCon - currently they look to be worse than the Pioneer (ok slight exaggeration).

[Cocky]

What is the justification for the SoCon - currently they look to be worse than the Pioneer (ok slight exaggeration).
I agree, I believe history plays a big part in peoples decisions. Most will forget that App, GaSo and Elon are gone plus I do believe a couple of teams are capable of winning the league. I would have predicted an at large for the Big South but Liberty has a tough schedule.

[bjtheflamesfan]

I think if liberty finishes with 3 losses (2 FBS and CCU) they probably get an at large.

[SUPharmacist]

I agree, I believe history plays a big part in peoples decisions. Most will forget that App, GaSo and Elon are gone plus I do believe a couple of teams are capable of winning the league. I would have predicted an at large for the Big South but Liberty has a tough schedule.

Shoot, I forgot about Elon leaving, I'll need to re-evaluate my whole SoCon perspective.

[Theee Catrabbit]

I just don't see the MVFC getting 3 bids. There will have to be such a round robin of top teams beating each other. This would have to happen NDSU loses to SDSU, UNI beats SDSU and NDSU. SIU beats NDSU and UNI. Now throw in MoSt, ISU's and even scrappy USD wanting so desperately to make a mark anyway they can. Even YSU will play tough for at least 3 more games. I haven't played it out completely on paper and we need at least one game of Conference play to make sure I am even talking about the right top 3 or 4 teams.

[ElCid]

Shoot, I forgot about Elon leaving, I'll need to re-evaluate my whole SoCon perspective.

I forgot them when they were part of the SOCON, let alone now.

[walliver]

I agree, I believe history plays a big part in peoples decisions. Most will forget that App, GaSo and Elon are gone plus I do believe a couple of teams are capable of winning the league. I would have predicted an at large for the Big South but Liberty has a tough schedule.

Elon made one trip to the playoffs and never won a conference championship. They may well be better than the team they replaced which recently replaced them, but that isn't saying much.

[TypicalTribe]

Revisiting a week laterBig Sky - 3Big South - 1CAA - 3MEAC - 1MVFC - 3NEC - 0OVC - 1Patriot - 0PFL - 0SLC - 1SoCon - 0Adding one to the CAA and taking one from the Southern

[Professor Chaos]

3MEAC - 1MVFC
You'd fit right in on the playoff selection committee.

[Mattymc727]

You'd fit right in on the playoff selection committee.

His spacing is a little off. He has MEAC with 1 and MVFC at 3.

[Walkon79]

I don't think the Big Sky will get 3 at-large bids this season. Of course, it's possible with the wide range of schedules and if the teams do what they need to do. However, I don't think it will happen. It's definitely a down year for the conference as a whole. I'd say that there are only about 4 or 5 teams that have a shot.

Agreed, 2 at large with the autobid might be it this year.

[TypicalTribe]

I don't necessarily think they deserve 3 either but when you think about spreading around 13 at-large bids and the likely resumes that the committee is going to be staring at, it just feels like it could turn out that way.

[bjtheflamesfan]

Big south definitely only will have one at large if any, and it probably will be either Liberty or Coastal Carolina getting that bid as long as neither loses an unnecessary game along the way

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Fordham and Bucknell definitely have a shot at an at large from the PL. Colgate has an outside shot imo. Princeton losing does hurt the Raiders chances to rack up a really good win....

[TypicalTribe]

Bump

Through week 6

Big Sky - 2
Big South - 0
CAA - 3
MEAC - 1
MVFC - 4
NEC - 0
OVC - 2
Patriot - 0
PFL - 0
SLC - 1
SoCon - 0

Discuss

[2ram]

it's hard to see the PL getting at an large given how crappy the ooc schedule results have turned out.

[Professor Chaos]

Bump

Through week 6

Big Sky - 2
Big South - 0
CAA - 3
MEAC - 1
MVFC - 4
NEC - 0
OVC - 2
Patriot - 0
PFL - 0
SLC - 1
SoCon - 0

Discuss
I think you'll see another Southland team emerge after McNeese and SELA and they'll get a couple at large bids. Perhaps UCA, SFA, or SHSU but I think whoever finishes 3rd in the conference pecking order will end up with a pretty favorable resume. I think the MEAC will be a one bid league so that's where it'll come from.

[superman7515]

Big South - Nope
MEAC - If BCU takes care of business, nope


You don't think A&T, who doesn't play BCU this year, and has the 1 point loss to #5 Coastal Carolina(who FAMU will beat this weekend xthumbsupx) won't slide in, if they run through everybody else and finishes 11-1...although they won't because FAMU will beat them too, so we'll say 10-2 LOL


A&T could conceivably finish 10-2 and still get in. They'd have one conference loss and likely tie for the title. I don't believe BCU has enough to go undefeated in conference this season.


A&T will be in the playoffs this year. xcoolx

I stand by my earlier assessment. If BCU takes care of their business, there will be no MEAC at-large bid. A&T's would finish second in the conference, at best, and that would mean they were shutout on a neutral field by a lower team. For all intents and purposes, they are 2-2 in the eyes of the committee right now.

The rest of the A&T schedule is terrible:
Hampton (1-4, only win against Miles College)
DelState (1-5, only win against winless Savannah State)
FAMU (0-5)
Morgan State (3-3, noncon win against D2 Bowie State, conference wins against winless FAMU and NSU who went 0-4 in noncon)
Savannah State (0-5)
NCCU (2-3, wins against Elizabeth City State and the 1-5 Howard Bison)

The best of the bunch, record wise, is the Morgan State Bears, and as you can see that's just because they've played some bad teams in the MEAC and D2 to inflate their record. A&T's best claim for a playoff spot at the moment is a close loss to Coastal Carolina. Any time your playoff hopes hang on "Look how great we were in this game we lost," you really don't have any playoff hopes.

[TypicalTribe]

I stand by my earlier assessment. If BCU takes care of their business, there will be no MEAC at-large bid.

I can't argue with that, but what if SCSU or even Norfolk St knocks off BCC and wins the auto-bid. A 10-2 BCC team with an FBS win and only one FBS loss could very easily get the nod from the committee, especially as the pickings get slim for the last spot or two.

[McNeese75]

I think you'll see another Southland team emerge after McNeese and SELA and they'll get a couple at large bids. Perhaps UCA, SFA, or SHSU but I think whoever finishes 3rd in the conference pecking order will end up with a pretty favorable resume. I think the MEAC will be a one bid league so that's where it'll come from.

I think you could be right. Time will tell.

[BEAR]

I think you could be right. Time will tell.

SLC is tough to figure out so far.
My ranking so far this year. Next week will clear the muddy picture up a bit.

McNeese seems tough but the sandbags haven't played anybody AND they have no talent. <sandbag inserted>
SELA is a bit of a puzzle. Next week, 10-18, they play UCA.
UCA- 3-3 but still a HUGE puzzle. good offense but bad defense with LBs and DBs out with injuries they are giving up major yardage. Don't see them winning a title this year but playoff eligible..most likely..but will they get in? Who knows.
SFA- Stronger than most people think. It took 28 points off turnovers for UCA to beat them.
NWST- Gave SELA all they could handle and lost by 8.
Others?

[PAllen]

Fordham should get consideration for an at-large if they manage to lose a close one in league play, miss the auto bid, but beat Army in the process. Outside of that, no other PL team has a chance.

[Lehigh'98]

Fordham should get consideration for an at-large if they manage to lose a close one in league play, miss the auto bid, but beat Army in the process. Outside of that, no other PL team has a chance.

If Fordham can't run away with the league this year, not sure they deserve an at large. Any PL loss this year looks pretty bad, unless Bucknell goes 10-1

[Bogus Megapardus]

Any PL loss this year looks pretty bad, unless Bucknell goes 10-1

Which isn't going to happen because Lehigh (almost certainly) is going to beat Bucknell this weekend. Did you see that Bucknell vs. Bryant game? Unspeakable.

Fordham will win the PL and there will be no at-large this year. In fact no PL team (other than Fordham) will garner a top 25 spot in any poll this season. But if Nebrich and Edmonds both go down for Fordham, resulting in another PL team taking the autobid, I can't see Fordham taking an at-large bid from one of the CAA or MVFC teams. Not this year.

The Patriot League's time will come. It might be five years from now, but with scholarships and inevitable coaching changes, the time will come.

[AmsterBison]

Going to be controversial but the CAA, just like last year, has almost no good OOC wins. Heck, did they have any quality OOC wins last year? This year they have Villanova over Fordham, but, unlike last year, they've balanced that out with some pretty bad OOC losses. If all the CAA's high-quality wins are against in-conference teams, then you could just as well say that the Ivy League should get two teams into the playoffs (if they so chose.) CAA = two-bid league.

Am I missing some sign of the CAA's quality?

Off-topic: Has the FCS really decided to go with a "If it's good enough for D2, it's good enough for us" Simple Rating System?

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

If Fordham can't run away with the league this year, not sure they deserve an at large. Any PL loss this year looks pretty bad, unless Bucknell goes 10-1

I think a 9-3 Colgate team would look pretty good too.....

[Bogus Megapardus]

I think a 9-3 Colgate team would look pretty good too.....

If Colgate gets through Princeton, Yale and Albany, then runs the table in the PL, they'll win the autobid and be legit tournament contenders. If they get through Princeton, Yale and Albany, and lose only to Fordham, do they have a shot? Not so sure because they still won't have a top 25 win.

If Yale takes out resurgent Dartmouth and gets ranked next week in *all* the major polls (including AGS), then *maybe* a 9-3 Colgate team has a shot. But a lot of things would have to happen in the interim. Flipping the Delaware result would have changed things considerably, but alas . . .