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Theee Catrabbit
September 15th, 2014, 02:32 PM
Looks almost like my AGS poll.....

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf2014&sub=11605

uofmman1122
September 15th, 2014, 02:39 PM
Looool

There's no way over half of the top ten teams are in the valley.

You guys are getting waaaaaay too much credit for NDSU's success.

Calling it now: just like every year, no Valley team other than NDSU makes it past the semis.

Discuss.

BEAR
September 15th, 2014, 02:40 PM
Interesting...if you sort them by strength of schedule you get:

Nicholls State with a SOS of 17....probably so high because they are a really bad team and anybody they play should win.
UCA with a SOS of 16...probably because they don't play an Division II or lower teams.

so how does that work? Are those equals??? One point difference but such diverse schedules between the two.

Theee Catrabbit
September 15th, 2014, 02:42 PM
Looool

There's no way over half of the top ten teams are in the valley.

You guys are getting waaaaaay too much credit for NDSU's success.

Calling it now: just like every year, no Valley team other than NDSU makes it past the semis.

Discuss.

In turn you get too much credit for EWU and a win over a very, very good SHSU team.xcoffeex

CrazyCat
September 15th, 2014, 02:53 PM
fuzzy math

uofmman1122
September 15th, 2014, 02:55 PM
In turn you get too much credit for EWU and a win over a very, very good SHSU team.xcoffeex
And the fact that we've proven we can get it done in the playoffs. But Montana not being as strong as we normally are has nothing to do with this.

The coattail riding going on in the Valley these past few years is hilarious and puts the 2000's CAA circle jerk to shame. At least more than one CAA team had something to brag about then.

skinny_uncle
September 15th, 2014, 02:57 PM
Interesting...if you sort them by strength of schedule you get:

Nicholls State with a SOS of 17....probably so high because they are a really bad team and anybody they play should win.
UCA with a SOS of 16...probably because they don't play an Division II or lower teams.

so how does that work? Are those equals??? One point difference but such diverse schedules between the two.

I think his SOS is based on who you have played so far, not your total schedule.

FUBeAR
September 15th, 2014, 03:19 PM
So riddle me this Batman...and Mr. Massey...

1a) Stetson, was last week and remains, ranked ahead of Davidson this week.
1b) Columbia was, last week, ranked, by Massey, 1 spot behind Mercer

2a) VMI beats Davidson soundly, but does give up over 500 yards of offense and 24 points
2b) Mercer completely throttles and shuts out Stetson 49-0. The game was essentially over in the 1st quarter and the final score could have been 149-0.
2c) Columbia does not, and has not yet played a game

3a) VMI moves up 5 spots
3b) Columbia moves up a spot, ahead of Mercer, and Mercer moves down one

I know most of you don't care about any of these teams, but I'm just asking about the logic behind Mr. Massey's ratings that could cause this. How could Team A kill a better team than Team B beats and Team B gets a big jump, but Team A drops below Team C...who doesn't even play? 'Splain it to me por favor.

NoDak 4 Ever
September 15th, 2014, 03:29 PM
Looool

There's no way over half of the top ten teams are in the valley.

You guys are getting waaaaaay too much credit for NDSU's success.

Calling it now: just like every year, no Valley team other than NDSU makes it past the semis.

Discuss.

The Valley is 18-1 against FCS competition with the only loss being USD/Montana.

What other conference can say that?

BEAR
September 15th, 2014, 03:41 PM
I think his SOS is based on who you have played so far, not your total schedule.

Then Nicholls playing anybody should make their SOS #1.... (just sayin".... don't taze me bro! )

RabidRabbit
September 15th, 2014, 03:43 PM
And Indiana St. picks up another FCS>FBS W. This is the team selected to be the bottom feeder who has 1 of 5 FCS>FBS. Last year, Nichols St won vs Eastern MI. A horrendous FBS team. Is Ball St. horrible this year? Maybe, just maybe, ISU(B) is better than expected.

SDSU has played well, vs competitent Big Sky teams.

UNI is struggling to get the FBS victories, but has played two FBS schools closely.

SIU is whooping on OVC schools

YSU, like WIU should look at a bit more challenging OOC, besides paycheck FBS games.

Thumper 76
September 15th, 2014, 04:35 PM
And the fact that we've proven we can get it done in the playoffs. But Montana not being as strong as we normally are has nothing to do with this.

The coattail riding going on in the Valley these past few years is hilarious and puts the 2000's CAA circle jerk to shame. At least more than one CAA team had something to brag about then.

Let's go off this year alone. What conference has performed even close to the valley OOC. How is having ONE OOC FCS loss by a bottom feeder at a top Big Sky team coattail riding? A lot of the games have been lopsided as well. Not sure what that has to so with ndsu's success this year?

Theee Catrabbit
September 15th, 2014, 04:55 PM
Let's go off this year alone. What conference has performed even close to the valley OOC. How is having ONE OOC FCS loss by a bottom feeder at a top Big Sky team coattail riding? A lot of the games have been lopsided as well. Not sure what that has to so with ndsu's success this year?

Exactly. it's all math, I. All the polls still have Montana up there so no need to cry.........

Thumper 76
September 15th, 2014, 05:07 PM
Exactly. it's all math, I. All the polls still have Montana up there so no need to cry.........

Yeah, still kinda early to put a ton of stock in the computers yet IMHO. Oh and us MVFC guys need to throttle WAAAYYY down on the chest thumping right now, wait till the playoffs selections and how our teams do there before we get so carried away. The bitching about last years selections make us sound like women who don't let anything go. Everyone is saying the MVFC looks to be the best so far, so all the chest thumping and rubbing peoples noses in it is getting pretty ****ing obnoxious IMO. Just my $.02

Theee Catrabbit
September 15th, 2014, 05:10 PM
Yeah, still kinda early to put a ton of stock in the computers yet IMHO. Oh and us MVFC guys need to throttle WAAAYYY down on the chest thumping right now, wait till the playoffs selections and how our teams do there before we get so carried away. The bitching about last years selections make us sound like women who don't let anything go. Everyone is saying the MVFC looks to be the best so far, so all the chest thumping and rubbing peoples noses in it is getting pretty ****ing obnoxious IMO. Just my $.02

meh. We sit and listen to it all year, every year from BSC and CAA.....doesn't really matter we'll self cannibalize and get 2 bids in the end......

Sycamore62
September 15th, 2014, 05:32 PM
And Indiana St. picks up another FCS>FBS W. This is the team selected to be the bottom feeder who has 1 of 5 FCS>FBS. Last year, Nichols St won vs Eastern MI. A horrendous FBS team. Is Ball St. horrible this year? Maybe, just maybe, ISU(B) is better than expected.

SDSU has played well, vs competitent Big Sky teams.

UNI is struggling to get the FBS victories, but has played two FBS schools closely.

SIU is whooping on OVC schools

YSU, like WIU should look at a bit more challenging OOC, besides paycheck FBS games.

I think a lot of people are basing the ISUb on info they didnt care about. Let me start by saying, yes Shakir Bell, I got it. And prior to Trent Miles, I think the previous AD and President were wanting to drop football BUT...
There were a lot of problems last year. They had absolutely no depth and then started losing important players like a real good running back, and a QB who had a couple huge passing games and then they played SIU with a WR playing QB and defensive players playing receiver.

Yes I know we have been historically bad but I think we have been respectable for the prior 3 years. I understand that when you see 1-11 most voters wouldnt investigate how it happened, and we will be thin this year and probably for a year or so. I think we will have to accept getting no respect until they show that last year was a new exception not the same ole rule

ElCid
September 15th, 2014, 07:23 PM
So riddle me this Batman...and Mr. Massey...

1a) Stetson, was last week and remains, ranked ahead of Davidson this week.
1b) Columbia was, last week, ranked, by Massey, 1 spot behind Mercer

2a) VMI beats Davidson soundly, but does give up over 500 yards of offense and 24 points
2b) Mercer completely throttles and shuts out Stetson 49-0. The game was essentially over in the 1st quarter and the final score could have been 149-0.
2c) Columbia does not, and has not yet played a game

3a) VMI moves up 5 spots
3b) Columbia moves up a spot, ahead of Mercer, and Mercer moves down one

I know most of you don't care about any of these teams, but I'm just asking about the logic behind Mr. Massey's ratings that could cause this. How could Team A kill a better team than Team B beats and Team B gets a big jump, but Team A drops below Team C...who doesn't even play? 'Splain it to me por favor.

You do realize that Massey is a compilation of other polls correct?

See his methodology here: http://masseyratings.com/cf/aboutcomp.htm

If VMI moves up it is because the polls/rankings (Human and/or computer) moved them up for whatever reason (SOS, human vote, etc.). Too many polls and variables to determine exactly how/why the teams moved as they did. You can click on each of the polls/rankings that are used to see the inputs. Here is an excerpt from the site:

The ranking comparison gladly accepts any ranking that results from:
A human poll conducted by a major publication or group (e.g. the AP)
An advanced computer rating.
A mathematically based sequential rating (e.g. Elo's update formula)
Publicly well-known systems (e.g. the RPI)

But I will say that these ratings are not bad. They have oddballs now and again, but they are not bad in general and there is method to reduce the outlier rankings from influencing the final rank. You would probably find the AGS top 25, by far the accurate of any poll, in the top 30 or so on Massey, but in a slightly differing order. But it is what it is. Ultimately irrelevant as the games will all get played on the field and not on a computer.

skinny_uncle
September 15th, 2014, 08:14 PM
You do realize that Massey is a compilation of other polls correct?

See his methodology here: http://masseyratings.com/cf/aboutcomp.htm

If VMI moves up it is because the polls/rankings (Human and/or computer) moved them up for whatever reason (SOS, human vote, etc.). Too many polls and variables to determine exactly how/why the teams moved as they did. You can click on each of the polls/rankings that are used to see the inputs. Here is an excerpt from the site:

The ranking comparison gladly accepts any ranking that results from:
• A human poll conducted by a major publication or group (e.g. the AP)
• An advanced computer rating.
• A mathematically based sequential rating (e.g. Elo's update formula)
• Publicly well-known systems (e.g. the RPI)

But I will say that these ratings are not bad. They have oddballs now and again, but they are not bad in general and there is method to reduce the outlier rankings from influencing the final rank. You would probably find the AGS top 25, by far the accurate of any poll, in the top 30 or so on Massey, but in a slightly differing order. But it is what it is. Ultimately irrelevant as the games will all get played on the field and not on a computer.
There 2 different Massey ratings. You are referring to http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm.
He also has his own computer generated ranking at http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf2014&sub=11605

ElCid
September 15th, 2014, 08:33 PM
There 2 different Massey ratings. You are referring to http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm.
He also has his own computer generated ranking at http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf2014&sub=11605

I thought he was talking about the composite one. I find it a bit more accurate than his own.

centennial
September 15th, 2014, 08:53 PM
The composite ratings are by far the most accurate, more so than AGS IMO. Some of these I don't agree with-


1
N Dakota St (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5545&s=262657)


2
S Dakota St (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7268&s=262657)


3
S Illinois (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7339&s=262657)


4
Villanova (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8415&s=262657)


5
E Washington (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2383&s=262657)


6
Coastal Car (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1637&s=262657)


7
Illinois St (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3449&s=262657)


8
Missouri St (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4970&s=262657)


9
SE Louisiana (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7314&s=262657)


10
Jacksonville St (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3606&s=262657)


11
McNeese St (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4613&s=262657)


12
Youngstown St (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=9217&s=262657)


13
Montana (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5035&s=262657)


14
New Hampshire (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5342&s=262657)


15
William & Mary (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8934&s=262657)


16
Northern Iowa (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5641&s=262657)


17
Princeton (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6339&s=262657)


18
Liberty (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4076&s=262657)


19
Harvard (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3162&s=262657)


20
Fordham (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2682&s=262657)


21
Chattanooga (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7809&s=262657)


22
E Illinois (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2341&s=262657)


23
Richmond (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6547&s=262657)


24
Sacred Heart (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6718&s=262657)


25
E Kentucky (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2346&s=262657)

ElCid
September 15th, 2014, 09:01 PM
The composite ratings are by far the most accurate, more so than AGS IMO. Some of these I don't agree with-

I don't like pure computer rankings in general. They are a data point only and not very useful by themselves. That's why I only reference his composite for comparison purposes, because it neutralizes the computer biases. There are human biases as well, but it takes care of them as well. At least I always thought so. I don't like Sagarin either. It is wrong more than it is right.

FUBeAR
September 15th, 2014, 10:08 PM
There 2 different Massey ratings. You are referring to http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm.
He also has his own computer generated ranking at http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf2014&sub=11605

Thanks ElCid and Skinny_Uncle - I see now. I was looking at the Massey-only rankings...and the composite does seem to make more sense....but I find this component of the composite more to my preference: http://www.timetravelsports.com/currat.AA

uofmman1122
September 15th, 2014, 10:26 PM
Let's go off this year alone. What conference has performed even close to the valley OOC. How is having ONE OOC FCS loss by a bottom feeder at a top Big Sky team coattail riding? A lot of the games have been lopsided as well. Not sure what that has to so with ndsu's success this year?
Because this happens every year, and these crazy rankings overinflate the Valley all season, and then you fail to show up in the playoffs. It's like clockwork.

Montana is ranked too high in two polls, and I'm perfectly okay with that. The thing that gets me however is how much **** we Big Sky fans have to put up with from fans of a conference that has had only one team who's done anything in the past 15 years.

I'll bet anyone here whatever they want that the top ten teams at the end of the year has at most three Valley teams, one of which will likely be NDSU. I'll also bet no team other than NDSU makes it into the semis.

I'll gladly eat crow if it happens, but not until it actually does.

ElCid
September 15th, 2014, 10:29 PM
Because this happens every year, and these crazy rankings overinflate the Valley all season, and then you fail to show up in the playoffs. It's like clockwork.

Montana is ranked too high in two polls, and I'm perfectly okay with that. The thing that gets me however is how much **** we Big Sky fans have to put up with from fans of a conference that has had only one team who's done anything in the past 15 years.

I'll bet anyone here whatever they want that the top ten teams at the end of the year has at most three Valley teams, one of which will likely be NDSU. I'll also bet no team other than NDSU makes it into the semis.

I'll gladly eat crow if it happens, but not until it actually does.

Nice post for #3000.

uofmman1122
September 15th, 2014, 10:32 PM
Yeah, still kinda early to put a ton of stock in the computers yet IMHO. Oh and us MVFC guys need to throttle WAAAYYY down on the chest thumping right now, wait till the playoffs selections and how our teams do there before we get so carried away. The bitching about last years selections make us sound like women who don't let anything go. Everyone is saying the MVFC looks to be the best so far, so all the chest thumping and rubbing peoples noses in it is getting pretty ****ing obnoxious IMO. Just my $.02
Apologies. I can get behind this.

centennial
September 15th, 2014, 10:32 PM
Because this happens every year, and these crazy rankings overinflate the Valley all season, and then you fail to show up in the playoffs. It's like clockwork.

Montana is ranked too high in two polls, and I'm perfectly okay with that. The thing that gets me however is how much **** we Big Sky fans have to put up with from fans of a conference that has had only one team who's done anything in the past 15 years.

I'll bet anyone here whatever they want that the top ten teams at the end of the year has at most three Valley teams, one of which will likely be NDSU. I'll also bet no team other than NDSU makes it into the semis.

I'll gladly eat crow if it happens, but not until it actually does.
15-1 vs FCS and the valley is overrated. Also, doesn't help the NCAA SRS is a system made by someone in middle school(run by CAA and Big Sky). It should be instead called 'We rank whoever we pick'. 5 days away from seeing if you guys actually deserve to be #3-4.

uofmman1122
September 15th, 2014, 10:33 PM
Nice post for #3000.
Wasn't paying attention, but ALRIGHT!

- - - Updated - - -


15-1 vs FCS and the valley is overrated. Also, doesn't help the NCAA SRS is a system made by someone in middle school(run by CAA and Big Sky). It should be instead called 'We rank whoever we pick'. 5 days away from seeing if you guys actually deserve to be #3-4.
Spoilers: we don't.

skinny_uncle
September 15th, 2014, 10:59 PM
It is interesting that so many folks think that subjective votes by folks who have never seen the majority of these teams play are more accurate than objective computer rankings.

skinny_uncle
September 15th, 2014, 11:01 PM
15-1 vs FCS and the valley is overrated. Also, doesn't help the NCAA SRS is a system made by someone in middle school(run by CAA and Big Sky). It should be instead called 'We rank whoever we pick'. 5 days away from seeing if you guys actually deserve to be #3-4.

The Valley with the exception of the Bison is underrated in most polls at this point of the season.

rokamortis
September 15th, 2014, 11:11 PM
Glad you guys like Massey Composite - I do too. There is no one perfect way to analyze the numbers, but the composite does a good job of smashing all of them together to give a decent overview.

Plus this ...

1 Missouri Valley
2 Colonial
3 Big South
4 OH Valley
5 Big Sky
6 Southern
7 FCS Indep
8 Ivy League
9 Southland
10 Patriot League
11 Northeast
12 Mid-Eastern AC
13 Southwestern AC
14 Pioneer

I hope we don't let being a power conference get to our head. It's going to stink once we get into conference play and start beating each other up.
xrotatehx

ElCid
September 15th, 2014, 11:19 PM
15-1 vs FCS and the valley is overrated. Also, doesn't help the NCAA SRS is a system made by someone in middle school(run by CAA and Big Sky). It should be instead called 'We rank whoever we pick'. 5 days away from seeing if you guys actually deserve to be #3-4.

There is no doubt that the OOC record is good, but when I look at the opponents, 10 are "arguably" weak, some very weak, but 5 were definitely goods wins. But if you check it was only 13-1 vs FCS, 2 were lower Div. Still very good. Even the one loss was a good loss if there is such a thing. And while the 2-8 record against FBS is very good, the losses were mostly respectable as well, some even close. In regard to the computer I think that having played 10 FBS early has really helped the SOS more than anything, obviously more than the FCS schedule did. But I would not hype the FCS SOS. I think now that your rankings are high, and you start playing each other, it just feeds itself to stay high. Same thing happens with the Ivy. They are perennially way too high in the computer but since they don't play a lot OOC it just feeds itself. No I am not comparing you to the Ivy, just the same type of situation in regard to computer rankings. I think you guys are very good, almost as good as the SOCON was a few years ago.:D Enjoy while it lasts.

Wallace
September 16th, 2014, 04:53 AM
I'll wait for the GPI to come out next month, it is always the top one in the Massey composite.

Sycamore62
September 16th, 2014, 11:10 AM
I will not use any facts or stats, Im just going to keep saying its an amazingly tough conference and we would be contenders in all the other conferences outside of the SEC.

tomq04
September 16th, 2014, 11:22 AM
Does anyone besides EWU from the Big Sky belong in the top 10? It all depends on Mt St and Mt yet again, both will prove to be exposed on Saturday I believe.

49RFootballNow
September 19th, 2014, 09:23 PM
Glad you guys like Massey Composite - I do too. There is no one perfect way to analyze the numbers, but the composite does a good job of smashing all of them together to give a decent overview.

Plus this ...

1 Missouri Valley
2 Colonial
3 Big South
4 OH Valley
5 Big Sky
6 Southern
7 FCS Indep
8 Ivy League
9 Southland
10 Patriot League
11 Northeast
12 Mid-Eastern AC
13 Southwestern AC
14 Pioneer

I hope we don't let being a power conference get to our head. It's going to stink once we get into conference play and start beating each other up.
xrotatehx

I'm a fan of this one myself. xsmiley_wix

frozennorth
September 19th, 2014, 10:26 PM
Because this happens every year, and these crazy rankings overinflate the Valley all season, and then you fail to show up in the playoffs. It's like clockwork.

the mvfc has lost 4 games in three years to non-mvfc teams in the playoffs, all on the road, and all won a game before elimination.

Your conference, on the other hand, has been choke central.

Pard4Life
September 19th, 2014, 10:46 PM
Texas Southern: 3-0 and ranked 110... ouch...

tribe_pride
September 19th, 2014, 11:04 PM
Texas Southern: 3-0 and ranked 110... ouch...

That's because they edged out Prairie View at home who is ranked just around them and then an 0-3 NAIA team who has not stayed within 38 points of an opponent and a Division II team that was 2-9 last year. Strong SOS.

robsnotes4u
September 20th, 2014, 08:39 AM
It is interesting that so many folks think that subjective votes by folks who have never seen the majority of these teams play are more accurate than objective computer rankings.
Great point

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion but not their own facts

tribe_pride
September 20th, 2014, 08:49 AM
Great point

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion but not their own facts

Though most creators of computer rankings will admit that their rankings can be very skewed after the first few games so there are a large number of weird results until more games are played.

robsnotes4u
September 20th, 2014, 08:58 AM
Though most creators of computer rankings will admit that their rankings can be very skewed after the first few games so there are a large number of weird results until more games are played.
You are correct. We use a large formula for determining ratings for pool in Fargo, game effects the rating

People who just start will see their rating fluctuate a lit Ms mine with 4000 games in the system will not...

It sure beats the day of one or two guys saying you are an A B or C player. When you asked why they never had an answer

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion but not their own facts