Preseason Poll Discussion

[clenz]

Maybe I missed a thread on this, if I did feel free to merge and ridicule.

No posting of who you have voted where until it's released but let's the general discussion going.

I'm still doing some tweaking BUT this is my general break down right now



Conferece
1-5
6-10
11-15
16-20
21-25
Total


Colonial
1
1
0
3
0
5


Missouri Valley
2
1
1
0
0
4


Big Sky
1
1
0
1
1
4


Southland
1
0
1
0
1
3


Ohio Valley
0
0
2
0
1
3


SoCon
0
0
1
1
1
3


Big South
0
1
0
0
0
1


Patriot
0
1
0
0
0
1


MEAC
0
0
0
0
1
1













About 8 others in contention from the MVFC, Big Sky, CAA, SoCon, and yes...the Ivy

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I don't think there is a thread on the preseason poll yet clenzy so good on ya. The voting starts this week so it's a good time to get some discussion rolling.

I'm gonna be out of commission most of tomorrow I think but the emails for the preseason poll will be going out in the next couple of days and the polling will be open for about 5 days I think it is.

[clenz]

As I'm looking at my poll I had a couple questions I wanted to see what others were thinking.

1. Who is the 1 team you have in your poll that you are likely the only one (or one of the few) to have...or ranked higher than anyone else (likely)?

2. Who is the 1 team you don't have ranked (or ranked much lower than you'd expect from others)?

Basically the high team and low team that would make others xflaggedxxslapfightxxbangx

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Who you got in your 30 or so clenzy? Ain't no problem with posting the pool and discussing teams. It's preseason so I don't think the rooting it out is gonna cause a great deal of harm using actual teams etc.

I actually haven't started putting a list together so I don't even have a 30 or 40 at this point.

[dewey]

So for those of you that have does this a few times what seems to work the best on putting your lists together?

Do you look at the thread from Mr Chicken about how much production is coming back versus what is lost?
How much stock do you put into preseason conference media polls?
What other factors do you utilize?
Do you put all of the teams I to a spreadsheet and then move them around based on the factors above?

Thanks.

Dewey

[clenz]

I've been out of the poll game for about 2.5 seasons. Prior to that I took polls very seriously - Ursus can attest to this.

I can be, and have been, accused on "big conference" bias because the way I do it tends to lend itself to that...but so does history.

The way I do it, at least right now, is a combo

1. The list from Mr. Chicken's link

2. Preseason coaches/media polls - who knows the conference better than the coaches/media around that conference

3. I look at team stats - I have 36 teams on my preseason "watch" list and I've looked at the official stats for each team probably 4 times.

4. I create a sheet comparing every released preseason poll. This allows me to get a "national" feel, but it also allows me to see where a team might be ranked in the top 10 in 1 poll, 20ish in another, and not at all in a third. Seriously, that has happened this year. There are a couple teams that were mid-teens in one and not in the others I saw. That tells me that the consensus on the team is very mixed and I need to look further at why one poll would have them much higher/lower than others.

5. I read a lot of this site. I may only post in a handful of threads, but I read 90% of the posts in the FCS forum. I mentioned in my pick 'em contest thread, I'm on this site at least once an hour from 5AM when I wake up to when I go to bed at 11PM-midnight. This site (along with CS and my wife/kid) are the only real constants in my life so I spend a lot of time, and honestly "lean", on this site for "normalcy" in my life. Thankfully I have a job at a computer and a company that doesn't' give a damn, as long as my work gets done.

6. This one is what gets me into trouble with posters on this site - I take historical results VERY seriously. That doesn't mean I'll vote Lehigh over UNI because of the **** show that was the 2010 playoff game. An example of how this works with me - NAU typically has a lot of hype early in the season. I typically have them much lower than anyone else in the early season and get bashed for it, a lot. Historically NAU is known for epic late season melt downs. I plan for that, then when it happens I don't have my #5 team all of a sudden lose to a 2 win Big Sky team and need to start justifying only moving them to #12, only to have them get blown out a week later and think of an excuse to keep them top 15-20 because I had them top 6 2 weeks ago. Does that cause me to be slower to react than I maybe should be? I guess. I will also almost always default to the MVFC/Big Sky/CAA/SoCon/SLC team over the OVC/Patriot/Pioneer/Ivy/Big South until it's proven to me that it should be the other way around. Colgate in 2003 is the only "non power conference" team to make the semi finals. Seriously...take a look (http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/history-of-the-fcs-playoffs/). Does that mean a Patriot team, like Fordham this year, can't be a top 10 team? Certainly not. It does, however, mean that I need them to show EXTRA proof on the field before I give them "full" credit. Also see the OVC - prior to last season they were something like 0-20 in the playoffs since 1997. That tells me that conference isn't at the same level as the MVFC/Big Sky/SoCon/CAA/SLC. Now, they did win a couple games last year - against the first ever Pioneer team in the playoffs, against another OVC team, and JSU had a nice run against Samford and McNeese State. However, do I let the best year in OVC history (at least since 1997) cloud my judgment this year and rank EIU/JSU/etc... higher than my gut tells me, just because they finally won a playoff game? No. Why? Because it took a Pioneer team and another OVC team for their wins.

7. During the season I don't punish for "normal" FBS losses. By that I mean it isn't lopsided and you looked respectable. I do punish for embarrassing losses like getting blown out, losing to Georgia State, looking like complete poo even if the score is closeish. I don't give a ton of credit for beating most Sun Belt/MAC/CUSA teams. The teams at the bottom of those conferences wouldn't be top 25 FCS programs. I wouldn't give extra credit for being South Dakota or Portland State, why should I for because their an "FBS INO"? I do give credit for playing an FBS team closer than expected. See UNI/Wisconsin and UNI/Iowa 2 years ago for examples. I give a lot of credit for beating a solid FBS team - see NDSU/KSU last season or ASU/Michigan 2007.

8. I'm sure I have other rules I just don't think about.


I'm sure I'll be told I'm wrong for doing it this way by some Patriot, OVC, MEAC, etc... fan...but the years I've done polls, by week 5 or 6, my poll looked almost identical to how the playoffs played themselves out. Maybe it was dumb luck those years, I certainly won't discount that. My style of voting, and posting honestly, is quite blunt/honest. That rubs people the wrong way, but I'm right more than I'm wrong...granted when I'm wrong I usually WAY wrong.

Anyway...I have 36 teams on my watch list. I have a feeling 8-12ish of them will be gone by week 2 and I'll have a pool of 23-27 teams I'm comfortable with by week 3. By week 5 I'd bet there will be 2 or 3 teams that catch my attention that I'll add to it. My list, in order by conference and then alphabetical



Cal Poly
Big Sky


Eastern Washington
Big Sky


Montana
Big Sky


Montana St
Big Sky


Northern Arizona
Big Sky


Southern Utah
Big Sky


Coastal Carolina
Big South


Liberty
Big South


Delaware
Colonial


James Madison
Colonial


New Hampshire
Colonial


Richmond
Colonial


Towson
Colonial


Villanova
Colonial


William & Mary
Colonial


Harvard
Ivy


Princeton
Ivy


South Carolina St
MEAC


Bethune-Cookman
Mid-Eastern


North Dakota St
Missouri Valley


Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley


South Dakota St
Missouri Valley


Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley


Youngstown State
Missouri Valley


Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley


Jacksonville St
Ohio Valley


Tennessee St
Ohio Valley


Fordham
Patriot


Chattanooga
Southern


Furman
Southern


Samford
Southern


Wofford
Southern


Central Arkansas
Southland


McNeese St
Southland


Sam Houston St
Southland


Southeastern Louisana
Southland

[chattownmocs]

1. NDSU
2. Southeastern Louisiana
3. Eastern Washington
4. Chattanooga
5. Northern Iowa
6. Southern Illinois.
7. Jacksonville State
8. James Madison
9. Coastal Carolina
10. Towson

Rough draft of top 10

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

You mean Northern Iowa at #5?

[chattownmocs]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

You mean Northern Iowa at #5?

yes

[Mattymc727]

1. NDSU
2. Southeastern Louisiana
3. Eastern Washington
4. Chattanooga
5. Northern Iowa
6. Southern Illinois.
7. Jacksonville State
8. James Madison
9. Coastal Carolina
10. Towson

Rough draft of top 10

Replace Chattanooga with UNH and you might have something....

[chattownmocs]

Replace Chattanooga with UNH and you might have something....


Hhaha. I thought about it, and the decision was no.

[Mattymc727]

Hhaha. I thought about it, and the decision was no.

neat

[Gil Dobie]

Top 5 will probably include UNI, EWU, Montana, UNH and Wofford.

[clenz]

Top 5 will probably include UNI, EWU, Montana, UNH and Wofford.
There's a team that you'll have much higher than I do as of now.

What's your thoughts on them? They seem to be 4th or 5th in pretty much every preseason SoCon rankings...let alone the top 5.

I could see Furman getting some run in the top 10ish.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Teams I like heading into the year...

UNI
EWU
Coastal Carolina
Montana
NDSU
UNH
Fordham

[Gil Dobie]

There's a team that you'll have much higher than I do as of now.

What's your thoughts on them? They seem to be 4th or 5th in pretty much every preseason SoCon rankings...let alone the top 5.

I could see Furman getting some run in the top 10ish.

Yea, I was thinking Furman and typing Wofford. Confusing the last two NDSU playoff foes that are still in the SoCon.

[clenz]

Yea, I was thinking Furman and typing Wofford. Confusing the last two NDSU playoff foes that are still in the SoCon.
xthumbsupx

[smilo]

The two surprises in mine are probably going to be Princeton and Stony Brook. Really excited to see how Marcus Coker does this year coming off two injuries. Remember they were top 20 before the injuries piled up.

[CID1990]

Teams I like heading into the year...

UNI
EWU
Coastal Carolina
Montana
NDSU
UNH
Fordham

we'll see what we can do about erasing one of those for ya at the start of the season

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Teams I like heading into the year...

UNI
EWU
Coastal Carolina
Montana
NDSU
UNH
Fordham


This looks good.

Villanova and W&M might be there too. W & M had a very good defense last year. They get the offense going they could be really tough.

[Rabbit74]

I think you are missing SDSU from your top 10, they are returning a strong quarterback and a star running back. I would put the ahead of SIU and UNI in the MVC. It is hard to know what to do with NDSU, but as a three time running champ, #1 may be a good place to put them. They did lose a lot of talent and their head coach however.

[OL FU]

Yea, I was thinking Furman and typing Wofford. .

Gil, You should be embarrassed:o:)

[Gil Dobie]

Gil, You should be embarrassed:o:)

I'm turning purple with embarrassment. :)

[Bisonator]

I think you are missing SDSU from your top 10, they are returning a strong quarterback and a star running back. I would put the ahead of SIU and UNI in the MVC. It is hard to know what to do with NDSU, but as a three time running champ, #1 may be a good place to put them. They did lose a lot of talent and their head coach however.

Ahead of SIU maybe but not UNI.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Poll is now open.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?156669-2014-AGS-POLL-Preseason-Vote-Is-Open

[clenz]

Submitted my poll. My chart of who falls where stayed the same but I did some shuffling within the 5 spots.



Conferece
1-5
6-10
11-15
16-20
21-25
Total


Colonial
1
1
0
3
0
5


Missouri Valley
2
1
1
0
0
4


Big Sky
1
1
0
1
1
4


Southland
1
0
1
0
1
3


Ohio Valley
0
0
2
0
1
3


SoCon
0
0
1
1
1
3


Big South
0
1
0
0
0
1


Patriot
0
1
0
0
0
1


MEAC
0
0
0
0
1
1




Total Conference points based on voting position
Missouri Valley: 76
Colonial: 62
Big Sky: 54
Southland: 42
Ohio Valley: 30
Southern: 25
Big South: 19
Patriot: 16
MEAC: 1

[MarkCCU]

1. NDSU
2. Southeastern Louisiana
3. Eastern Washington
4. Chattanooga
5. Northern Iowa
6. Southern Illinois.
7. Jacksonville State
8. James Madison
9. Coastal Carolina
10. Towson

Rough draft of top 10

I like it, though I might switch 9 and 10 around.

[Gil Dobie]

Which of these teams are likely to make the poll from the MEAC, NEC, Ivy, and Pioneer? Others not listed?

Harvard
Princeton
Bethune-Cookman
S Carolina St
Marist
San Diego
Butler
Mercer
Sacred Heart
Duquense

[clenz]

Which of these teams are likely to make the poll from the MEAC, NEC, Ivy, and Pioneer? Others not listed?

Harvard - out but in ORV
Princeton -out but high in ORV
Bethune-Cookman - in
S Carolina St - likely in
Marist - out maybe a couple ORV
San Diego - out maybe a couple ORV
Butler - out
Mercer - out
Sacred Heart - out but mid pack ORV
Duquense - out but a couple ORVMy best guess as to what the poll will look like.

[BisonBacker]

I've been out of the poll game for about 2.5 seasons. Prior to that I took polls very seriously - Ursus can attest to this.

I can be, and have been, accused on "big conference" bias because the way I do it tends to lend itself to that...but so does history.

The way I do it, at least right now, is a combo

1. The list from Mr. Chicken's link

2. Preseason coaches/media polls - who knows the conference better than the coaches/media around that conference




I don't think the Coaches always do their own polls and the polls I've seen from coaches makes me question this BIG TIME! I wouldn't put much stock in the Coaches/media poll as the historically have been crap!

[813Jag]

My best guess as to what the poll will look like.
I agree

[BisonBacker]

I think you are missing SDSU from your top 10, they are returning a strong quarterback and a star running back. I would put the ahead of SIU and UNI in the MVC. It is hard to know what to do with NDSU, but as a three time running champ, #1 may be a good place to put them. They did lose a lot of talent and their head coach however.

Not a chance I put SDSU in front of UNI. I think UNI going into the season is the favorite this year to win the conference and NDSU will have to prove themselves this year with all the changes we've got. Have a lot of talent coming back and may be at the top when it's all said and done but I have to give the nod to UNI if they don't crap themselves first.

[dewey]

I think you are missing SDSU from your top 10, they are returning a strong quarterback and a star running back. I would put the ahead of SIU and UNI in the MVC. It is hard to know what to do with NDSU, but as a three time running champ, #1 may be a good place to put them. They did lose a lot of talent and their head coach however.

Didn't the SDSU offensive line and defensive line lose a lot from last year?

Dewey

[IBleedYellow]

Most significant win is awkward...so I'm just doing the Natty game again. I'm not sure if that's what I'm supposed to do or not.

[NoDak 4 Ever]

Not a chance I put SDSU in front of UNI. I think UNI going into the season is the favorite this year to win the conference and NDSU will have to prove themselves this year with all the changes we've got. Have a lot of talent coming back and may be at the top when it's all said and done but I have to give the nod to UNI if they don't crap themselves first.

That's a big if. They always crap themselves.

[darell1976]

Most significant win is awkward...so I'm just doing the Natty game again. I'm not sure if that's what I'm supposed to do or not.

Thats what I did.

[URMite]

I don't think the Coaches always do their own polls and the polls I've seen from coaches makes me question this BIG TIME! I wouldn't put much stock in the Coaches/media poll as the historically have been crap!

I assume he means coaches/media polls from each conferences' media day, not the in season weekly national coaches poll. Which has been pretty bad.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Even during the season you are not required to do the most significant's fella's.

I don't go change the ballot for the one poll so in the past we've just went with a basic who had a good offseason and who had a great deal of losses.

But you don't have to fret about it at all.xthumbsupx

[WestCoastAggie]

Thanks for the info.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Which of these teams are likely to make the poll ufrom the MEAC, NEC, Ivy, and Pioneer? Others not listed?

Harvard
Princeton
Bethune-Cookman
S Carolina St
Marist
San Diego
Butler
Mercer
Sacred Heart
Duquense

I had...

Princeton Top 15
Harvard, Sacred Heart and South Carolina St were Top 25....

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Pretty darn good turnout already got 50 ballots in. Keep em' rolling in over the weekend folks.

[Red & Black]

ursus erased ballot...

We leave the posting of ballots (even fictional) until after the AGS Poll is released.

[Pard4Life]

Princeton and Sacred Heart should be in the Top 25... they had great seasons last year and have many pieces returning.. and it's preseason poll for cryin' out loud, so rank 'em...

[MTfan4life]

Submitted my poll. My chart of who falls where stayed the same but I did some shuffling within the 5 spots.



Conferece
1-5
6-10
11-15
16-20
21-25
Total


Colonial
1
1
0
3
0
5


Missouri Valley
2
1
1
0
0
4


Big Sky
1
1
0
1
1
4


Southland
1
0
1
0
1
3


Ohio Valley
0
0
2
0
1
3


SoCon
0
0
1
1
1
3


Big South
0
1
0
0
0
1


Patriot
0
1
0
0
0
1


MEAC
0
0
0
0
1
1




Total Conference points based on voting position
Missouri Valley: 76
Colonial: 62
Big Sky: 54
Southland: 42
Ohio Valley: 30
Southern: 25
Big South: 19
Patriot: 16
MEAC: 1

My total conference points:

MVFC - 83
CAA - 72
Southland - 43
Big Sky - 42
Southern - 34
OVC - 23
Big South - 17
Patriot - 10
NEC - 1

[BEAR]

Would someone post a link to the final poll of last year? Thanks!

[MTfan4life]

Would someone post a link to the final poll of last year? Thanks!

That link near the top of the page that says "Click here for historical IAA/FCS Information..." You can find any AGS poll that you want within that link.

[clenz]

That link near the top of the page that says "Click here for historical IAA/FCS Information..." You can find any AGS poll that you want within that link.

Dude...not hard to link that.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At367yhHwedudFI0YnNjSW1uOFpmWFV6MUhyc0l5Q Wc&usp=sharing#gid=9



#1 North Dakota State Bison (48)


#2 Towson Tigers


#3 Eastern Washington Eagles


#4 Eastern Illinois Panthers


#5 New Hampshire Wildcats


#6 Southeastern Louisiana Lions


#7 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers


#8 Jacksonville State Gamecocks


#9 Maine Black Bears


#10 Fordham Rams


#11 Montana Grizzlies


#12 South Dakota State Jackrabbits


#13 Sam Houston State Bearkats


#14 McNeese State Cowboys


#15 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks


#16 Furman Paladins


#17 Tennessee State Tigers


#18 Bethune-Cookman Wildcats


#19 Youngstown State Penguins


#20 Samford Bulldogs


#21 Southern Utah Thunderbirds


#22 Northern Iowa Panthers


#23 South Carolina State Bulldogs


#24 Harvard Crimson


#25 Princeton Tigers





Let it be known, if you are basing your poll on this poll I think you poll more than likely sucks.

[BEAR]

Thank you to both of you!

[wmmii]

My total conference points:

CAA - 86
MVFC - 70
Big sky- 51
Southland - 27
OVC - 25
Big South - 21
Southern - 17
Ivy - 11
Patriot - 10

[wmmii]

Which of these teams are likely to make the poll from the MEAC, NEC, Ivy, and Pioneer? Others not listed?

Harvard
Princeton
Bethune-Cookman
S Carolina St
Marist
San Diego
Butler
Mercer
Sacred Heart
Duquense

Princeton, they play Harvard at home

[WestCoastAggie]

Which of these teams are likely to make the poll from the MEAC, NEC, Ivy, and Pioneer? Others not listed?

Harvard
Princeton
Bethune-Cookman
S Carolina St
Marist
San Diego
Butler
Mercer
Sacred Heart
Duquense

Bethune and Harvard should be there. San Diego could have a shot later in the season. We should also keep an eye on NC A&T, Jackson State and Liberty. If things go their way early in the year, they should also make appearances in many top 25 polls this year.