Slight Blow For UTC?

[SU DOG]

Sounds like a very good kid who, unfortunately, has family issues. from today's Times Free Press:

http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2014/jul/09/johnson-not-returning-for-football-mocs/

[PaladinFan]

Wish him the best.

From a football perspective, I think the defensive secondary is a major cause for concern for UTC. Granted, they can offset that a good deal with an elite defensive front four. Still the final sentence noting that there are only two DBs on UTC's roster "to have started a game last season" indicates that they are going to be very inexperienced in the backfield.

Going to be interesting to see what effect that has on the Mocs this season.

[chattanoogamocs]

Of course, even before this...the most suspect thing about the defense was already the secondary (due to graduation). Mocs have 13 DB's listed on the roster, all but one is FR or SO. Some kids are going to have to grow up fast. Dee Virgin (SO) made 9 starts as a freshman last year. Kendall (JR) has 10 total starts in his career. After that, there is nothing but a lot of young "potential."

It is a monster of a line though (especially with Derrick Lott getting a 6th year)...but they will be even more pressed to make sure the QB has little time to look deep.

Long story short...yes, it is a blow. Will Johnson is a great kid on and off the field that made the Dean's List both semesters and the SoCon Honor Roll. We all wish him nothing but the best and hope that he may be able to return next year.

[FUBeAR]

Quantifying experience using 1.0 for each prior season played and 0.5 for a redshirt year, below are the rankings I calculated of the experience levels of each SoCon school's DB's with the exception of Samford (because they have not posted a 2014 roster). This includes all players listed as DB's (or similar - Nickel, etc.) and does not take into account any weighting for the number of returning starters, number on the 2-deep or number of 5th year walkons who never have, nor never will see the field during a game. So, not a perfect analysis by any means, but interesting nonetheless (to me, at least).



VMI
DB
1.44


Furman
DB
1.19


Wofford
DB
1.12


Mercer
DB
1.09


WCU
DB
1.07


Citadel
DB
1.00


Chattanooga
DB
0.69



On the other hand, here are the same calculations for the DL (6th year medical redshirt's NOT counted as 4.5 - sorry - there could be others that I don't know about that are just listed as R-Sr's (so, those players get a 3.5 - max level). Also...if schools don't properly include the redshirt years of their players, but I happen to 'know' it, I did include that.



Chattanooga
DL
1.43


Furman
DL
1.41


Wofford
DL
1.39


Citadel
DL
1.16


VMI
DL
1.14


Mercer
DL
1.03


WCU
DL
0.93



...and just to complete the analysis, here are the LB rankings...



Furman
LB
1.63


VMI
LB
1.54


Citadel
LB
1.17


WCU
LB
1.13


Mercer
LB
1.00


Chattanooga
LB
0.95


Wofford
LB
0.92



Looks to me like the 'Dins are gonna have a quite SALTY Defensive unit from Front to Back....gulp...I have heard that Mercer has been working on their 1st down quick kick strategy to prepare for that EARLY season match-up with Furman in Macon.

...If I've made any math errors, sorry...but I don't care. I suck at math.

[PaladinFan]

I don't expect any first down quick kicks. Though the fourth down quick kick is part of Furman's game plan I have missed since Lamb left.

Furman should be pretty decent on defense. Good depth at every position and returns most starters. All of those games where Bruce Fowler thrust freshmen into the starting lineup a few years ago should start to pay dividends in 2014.

Just my opinion, but the best overall SoCon defensive back will be Samford's Tartt, best linebacker is Furman's Rider, and best DL is UTC's Tull.

[chattownmocs]

Weve known this for a while now. That CB spot is a question but its really the only question in the secondary. Virgin and Kendall have played a lot and can play. Cedric Nettles is gonna be a stud. Chattanooga recruits quality players on defense and has them ready to play.

[dungeonjoe]

Wow, I appreciate the work FUBear. The way some of my SoCon brothers were talking, I thought Wofford's secondary was going to be a problem due to inexperience. Well, it doesn't look as bad comparatively.

How do the various team's stack up as a whole defensive unit, not just with the sections?

[SU DOG]

Here are the projected Samford DB starters: CB - James Bradberry RS Jr. CB - Brandon Nettles RS Sr. SS - Trey Wesley - RS Jr. and FS - Jaquisji Tartt RS Sr.
I seriously doubt there is a secondary in the SoCon with this much experience or maybe even talent.
The LBs are a different story. We will have 2 starters back, but one will be moved from OLB to MLB. Also, not a lot of depth here.
If Jerry Mathis is back at 100%, our defensive front will be very strong with good depth. I'm counting on that group to be a surprise in the conference.

[PaladinFan]

Furman graduated two starters off a defense that ranked third in the SoCon in scoring defense and top ten nationally in turnover margin. Fowler tends to use a lot of rotations and a lot of different lineups and looks depending on the opponent, but I'll give my best guess.

DE: All SoCon DE Gary Wilkins will be at one end. Shawn Boone returns after his injury cut short his senior season. Ira McCune is also a senior and earned a lot of starts in Boone's absence, and he is a rotational player both at DE and DT. Lot of talent at the bookends.

DT: Sophmore Jordan Hawkins returns alongside Jordan Mackey. Add in McCune as a rotational player. I don't know how many starts all in Furman has between those five players, but I would wager it is close to 60.

LB: All SoCon Carl Rider is a true MLB in his third year as a starter. He will likely be flanked by a combination of TJ Warren, Cory Magwood, and Marcus McMorris. Lot of talent in this area that will be able to shift looks and personnel depending on down and distance with runstoppers, pass rushers, and cover guys. Rider is a rock in the middle and is a strong, smart, athletic player.

DB: Furman returns Trey Robinson at Safety along with two year starter Reggie Thomas at CB. McMorris is technically a safety and will likely have a lot of pass defense responsibilities, but I would expect the two other starters should be AK Olusanya at S and Jamarri Miliken at CB.

Real key for Furman is whether they show up with the team that finished last year. From the midway point in the season (App State game on) the only teams to score more than 20 points on the Paladin defense were LSU and North Dakota State. They are looking like a very good compliment to Furman's ball control type offense.

[FUBeAR]

How do the various team's stack up as a whole defensive unit, not just with the sections?

As requested...



VMI
D
1.39


Furman
D
1.38


Wofford
D
1.12


Citadel
D
1.10


WCU
D
1.06


Chattanooga
D
1.05


Mercer
D
1.04

[PaladinFan]

As requested...



VMI
D
1.39


Furman
D
1.38


Wofford
D
1.12


Citadel
D
1.10


WCU
D
1.06


Chattanooga
D
1.05


Mercer
D
1.04




You are working too hard, but the information is appreciated. :)

[dungeonjoe]

As requested...



VMI
D
1.39


Furman
D
1.38


Wofford
D
1.12


Citadel
D
1.10


WCU
D
1.06


Chattanooga
D
1.05


Mercer
D
1.04


thanks for the hard work, fubear. You will bring a lot to AGS. This will be an item for discussion.

[FUBeAR]

Thanks guys - When SamNotStan-ford ever publishes their 2014 roster, I'll post the full 'measureables' info I've compiled which includes height, weight, and the experience data that I have shared already.

As I personally think 'measurables' (with the exception of experience) are not nearly as important as the 'non-measurables' (heart, smarts, hate-to-lose-ness, coaching, etc.) in predicting the success of a football TEAM, I don't really 'buy into' this 'stuff,' but it is fun to talk about. In fact, I'm hoping the results of these rankings will be the inverse of the end-of-year standings. As the proud owner of 5 SoCon Championship rings I rec'd while playing on/coaching teams that NEVER had the advantage in any category (including Speed, but with the exception of, perhaps, Experience...and in games vs. Davidson), I know this CAN happen.

Also - it's really not a lot of work - copy, paste, filter, change the dang ft-inch heights to total inches, filter again, add numeric value to experience, subtotal, filter/sort - done!

[chattanoogamocs]

Yeah, as even Fubear pointed out...a 5th year walk-on that has never made the field is going to rank higher than a 4-star rated freshman (not that I really put any faith in "stars," but y'all get where I'm going). But which one is more likely to have an impact?

But based just on age and depth only...these are great to look at.

I will say one of the best things about Huesman coming to Chattanooga (as opposed to Rodney Allison trying to quick fix every year with transfers)...he believes highly in red-shirting every freshman (unless they are literally good enough to be a starter right out of the gate), that is why someone like Dee Virgin can come in as a RS-FR and start 9 games...because after a year in the system, they don't play like freshmen. That is what makes losing Will Johnson so tough...he was good enough to start his 2nd game as a true freshman (and played in all 3 before getting injured).

[PaladinFan]

Kind of in the same vein, I was looking over the defensive numbers form last year. It may be hard to draw a lot of firm correlations. For example, the three best defenses against the run last year were Georgia Southern, the Citadel, and Wofford. Those three teams all share the unique quality of not having had to play a conference team that exclusively runs the ball (i.e., themselves). Maybe they were the three best rushing defenses, but it also helps that they didn't have to face a team that runs the ball 60+ times a game for 300+ yards.

Numbers only tell you so much. I'd be more interested in starts than years in the program. A sophomore with 14 starts to his name is likely a better player than a senior with zero.

[OL FU]

Thanks guys - When SamNotStan-ford ever publishes their 2014 roster, I'll post the full 'measureables' info I've compiled which includes height, weight, and the experience data that I have shared already.

As I personally think 'measurables' (with the exception of experience) are not nearly as important as the 'non-measurables' (heart, smarts, hate-to-lose-ness, coaching, etc.) in predicting the success of a football TEAM, I don't really 'buy into' this 'stuff,' but it is fun to talk about. In fact, I'm hoping the results of these rankings will be the inverse of the end-of-year standings. As the proud owner of 5 SoCon Championship rings I rec'd while playing on/coaching teams that NEVER had the advantage in any category (including Speed, but with the exception of, perhaps, Experience...and in games vs. Davidson), I know this CAN happen.

Also - it's really not a lot of work - copy, paste, filter, change the dang ft-inch heights to total inches, filter again, add numeric value to experience, subtotal, filter/sort - done!

My curiosity is peaked, but I won't ask.:)

[walliver]

Kind of in the same vein, I was looking over the defensive numbers form last year. It may be hard to draw a lot of firm correlations. For example, the three best defenses against the run last year were Georgia Southern, the Citadel, and Wofford. Those three teams all share the unique quality of not having had to play a conference team that exclusively runs the ball (i.e., themselves). Maybe they were the three best rushing defenses, but it also helps that they didn't have to face a team that runs the ball 60+ times a game for 300+ yards.

Numbers only tell you so much. I'd be more interested in starts than years in the program. A sophomore with 14 starts to his name is likely a better player than a senior with zero.

I find defensive stats fairly useless. The best way to have good defensive numbers is to keep your offense on the field and defense on the bench.
A defensive player with a lot of tackles is most likely a good player, but it could be that he has many tackles because his team-mate on the other side is even better so teams run away from him.
Having good numbers against the run may just be because your pass defense sucks, so your opponents don't waste time running the ball, and vice versa.

[chattanoogamocs]

I find defensive stats fairly useless. The best way to have good defensive numbers is to keep your offense on the field and defense on the bench.
A defensive player with a lot of tackles is most likely a good player, but it could be that he has many tackles because his team-mate on the other side is even better so teams run away from him.
Having good numbers against the run may just be because your pass defense sucks, so your opponents don't waste time running the ball, and vice versa.

Along those lines...Davis Tull's numbers went down last year, because opposing teams mainly avoided him and ran to the other side...and people that just look at stats only would try to claim he had a bad year.

Also following that vein...Josh Cain played at linebacker in the early 2000's...he broke a bunch of UTC and SoCon records for tackles (including 30+ in one game). Honestly, he was only a good, not great, player...but he was the best player on a horrible defense which gave him a ton of opportunities. If you have a guy that is making 30 tackles in a game, that is a usually great sign that you have a bad defense. Back then, the ONLY fun in watching those teams was to see how many tackles he could get.

[PaladinFan]

Along those lines...Davis Tull's numbers went down last year, because opposing teams mainly avoided him and ran to the other side...and people that just look at stats only would try to claim he had a bad year.

Also following that vein...Josh Cain played at linebacker in the early 2000's...he broke a bunch of UTC and SoCon records for tackles (including 30+ in one game). Honestly, he was only a good, not great, player...but he was the best player on a horrible defense which gave him a ton of opportunities. If you have a guy that is making 30 tackles in a game, that is a usually great sign that you have a bad defense. Back then, the ONLY fun in watching those teams was to see how many tackles he could get.

Reminds me a bit of a kid that played at Elon named Chad Nkang. Nkang was a middle linebacker on a few awful Elon teams. That guy was a one man wrecking crew out there. If he'd played on a half way decent team we'd probably talk about him as one of the all time greats.

I vividly remember Nkang was the leader of the Elon defense that (somewhat famously) held Furman to 10 points in 2004. Furman's offense that season averaged over 450 yards a game, and was held under 30 points only four times (29 to GSU and APP, 14 to eventual national champ JMU, and Elon). Nkang had something close to 20 tackles. If he could have played offense, it could have been a great upset (Elon's offense couldn't sniff the endzone before Scott Riddle, so the game was never really in doubt).