NEC down the stretch

[aceinthehole]

2006 NEC Football Standings
including games played through 10/21/2006

1. Stony Brook (4-0 NEC, 4-4 overall) controls own destiny - vs. RMU, @ Wagner, @ CCSU
2. Monmouth (3-1, 7-1) owns tiebreaker over RMU - vs. CCSU, vs. SFPA, @ Albany
Albany (3-1, 5-3) owns tiebreaker over CCSU - vs. Wagner, @ RMU, vs. Monmouth
Robert Morris (3-1, 5-3) - owns tiebreaker over CCSU - @ SBU, vs. Albany, @ SHU
5. Central Conn. St. (2-2, 6-2) needs help - @ Monmouth, @ SHU, vs. SBU
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6. Sacred Heart (1-3, 2-6)
7. Wagner (0-4, 4-4)
St. Francis, PA (0-4, 1-7)


This week's games - 10/28/2006
Central Conn. St. @ Monmouth 12:00 pm - Live on Fox Sports Net - New York
Robert Morris @ Stony Brook 1:00 pm
Sacred Heart @ St. Francis (PA) 1:00 pm
Wagner @ Albany 4:00 pm
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The NEC is actually still wide open with 5 teams able to win the conference and the bid to the Gridiron Classic. Stony Brook is the only team that doesn't need help if it can win out, but still hosts a tough Robert Morris team and the season finale at CCSU.

Monmouth and Albany have just one NEC loss each (both to Stony Brook) and face each other in the final week of the season. Each team needs to win out and have SBU lose 2 of its final 3 games.

Robert Morris can also win the title if they win out and Monmouth drops 1 of its final 3 games.

CCSU has yet to face Monmouth and Stony Brook. The Blue Devils must win out and have SBU lose to either RMU or Wagner, and both Albany and RMU must lose 2 of their final 3 games.

[Raider Dane]

So... let's say that RMU beats SBU; CCSU beats Monmouth; Albany beats RMU; Monmouth beats Albany and CCSU beats SBU. Assuming these five teams win their other conference games, I have them all with 5 and 2 records. Not likely, but not totally improbable. In this scenerio, who hosts the Gridiron Classic? What criteria is used for the first and second tiebreakers?

[aceinthehole]

So... let's say that RMU beats SBU; CCSU beats Monmouth; Albany beats RMU; Monmouth beats Albany and CCSU beats SBU. Assuming these five teams win their other conference games, I have them all with 5 and 2 records. Not likely, but not totally improbable. In this scenerio, who hosts the Gridiron Classic? What criteria is used for the first and second tiebreakers?

From the NEC Policy Manual:

Three-Way (or more) Tiebreaker
In the event of a three-way tie (or a tie involving more than three teams) in the standings, the following tiebreaker system shall be used in the order listed.

1. The winning percentages of the teams involved in the tie vs. each other shall be compared. If one team’s winning percentage is superior to the others, that team shall be removed from the tie and seeded highest of the teams involved in the tie. If two teams subsequently remain, that tie shall be broken utilizing the two-way tiebreaker procedure.

2. If no single team has a superior winning percentage after the comparison described in No. 1, but multiple teams have the same superior percentage to the any other teams involved in the tie, those teams with the superior percentage will be compared using either the two-way or three-way tiebreaker procedure. The team that has the advantage will be seeded highest of all teams involved in the original tie. The other team(s) (the loser(s) of the appropriate tiebreaker) will again be compared to the remaining teams in the tie, beginning with step No. 1 of the three-way tiebreaker.

3. If all winning percentages in the three-way (or more) tie vs. teams involved in the tie are the same, each team’s winning percentage vs. the first-place team or teams tying for first place shall be compared. If one team’s winning percentage is superior to the others, that team shall be removed from the tie and seeded highest of the teams involved in the tie. If two teams remain, that tie shall be broken utilizing the two-way tiebreaker procedure.

4. If all winning percentages in the three-way (or more) tie vs. teams involved in the tie are the same, each team’s winning percentage vs. the first-place team or teams tying for first place shall be compared. If multiple teams have a superior winning percentage to any other team in the original tie, those teams with the superior percentage will be compared using either the two-way or three-way tiebreaker procedure. The team that has the advantage will be seeded highest of all teams involved in the original tie. The other team(s) (the loser(s) of the appropriate tiebreaker) will again be compared to the remaining teams in the tie, beginning with step No. 1 of the two-way or three-way tiebreaker.

5. This process continues as necessary, comparing winning percentages of teams in the tie vs. the second-place team or their composite percentages vs. teams tying for second place, third place, etc., until all ties are broken and seeding is complete.

6. If all steps above have been exhausted and the tie cannot be broken, the most recent rankings of USA Today’s Sagarin poll at the conclusion of the regular season will be utilized to determine the Conference champion.

[Raider Dane]

Ace... thank you for the information. But I'm confused. If all five teams go 5 and 2 as layed out, each of the five teams two loses would come from within the "group". Therefore, all five teams would have identical winning percentages when their head-to-head records are compared. What is the next tiebreaker?

[aceinthehole]

Ace... thank you for the information. But I'm confused. If all five teams go 5 and 2 as layed out, each of the five teams two loses would come from within the "group". Therefore, all five teams would have identical winning percentages when their head-to-head records are compared. What is the next tiebreaker?

You are right, with 5 teams all with losses only to teams in the tiebreaker, then my reading of this possible, but unlikely scenario you proposed is ... it would go to Tiebreaker #6 - USA Today's Sargin Ranking.

FYI - here are the current Sargin rankings (as of 10/22):

177 Monmouth-NJ AA = 45.75
180 Albany (NY) AA = 45.50
193 Stony Brook AA = 42.07
194 Central Connecticut AA = 41.79
222 Robert Morris AA = 34.45
226 Sacred Heart AA = 29.98
229 Wagner AA = 27.08
239 St. Francis-Pa. AA = 13.30

Its just speculation on my part, but with CCSU required to win 2 games vs. higher ranked opponents, and with the other teams needing to lose at least one more game (most to "lower" ranked teams) in your scenario, I would guess it would be CCSU that finishes with the higest Sargin rank, but really anything is possible.

[Raider Dane]

Thanks again Ace for the info..... aside from the Gridiron Classic, I guess there would be 5 co-champs of the NEC? That would be pretty absurd. Anyway, we will need to take it one week at a time. Let's hope that CCSU and Albany take care of business and RMU hands SBU its first conference loss.

[Pard4Life]

Wow... CCSU-Monmouth is on Fox NY? That's a big-step for the league and programs.. that should be on heck of a game. Too bad if Stony Brook wins this league because CCSU, Monmouth, Albany are some quality, exciting teams that deserve a ranking or two.

[aceinthehole]

Wow... CCSU-Monmouth is on Fox NY? That's a big-step for the league and programs.. that should be on heck of a game. Too bad if Stony Brook wins this league because CCSU, Monmouth, Albany are some quality, exciting teams that deserve a ranking or two.

Thanks, this season marks the fourth straight year that the NEC has aired football games as part of its extensive regional sports package! And this is the 3rd NEC game being televised in 2006:

Sept. 9 - Duquesne at Robert Morris (FSN-Pittsburgh)
Sept. 30 - Robert Morris at Saint Francis (PA) (FSN-Pittsburgh)
Oct 28 - Central Connecticut State at Monmouth (FSN-New York)

All games are live on Fox Sports Net and available nationally on satelite!

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Previous NEC broadcasts

2005:
Sept. 17 - Butler at Robert Morris (FSN-Pittsburgh)
Sept. 24 - Albany at CCSU (FSN-New York)
Oct. 1 - St. Francis (PA) at Robert Morris (FSN-Pittsburgh)

2004:
Sept. 4 - Sacred Heart at Central Connecticut State (Metro-TV)
Oct. 9 - Monmouth at Wagner (Metro-TV)

2003:
2 games