Sagarin's Final Ratings Are Out

[UNH Fanboi]

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

NDSU ends the season at #17 (and 12th in the predictor ratings, which are considered the most accurate)!

[CFBfan]

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

NDSU ends the season at #17 (and 12th in the predictor ratings, which are considered the most accurate)!

wow! that's way too high and i'm a huge fcs fan but too many teams below them would bury them on the field

[Gil Dobie]

Interesting:

2013 NDSU #17 86.38 ranking
1996 Marshall #21 85.12 ranking
1996 Montana #45 75.80 ranking
1999 Georgia Southern #46 74.36 ranking

[RabidRabbit]

12 FCS teams in top 100. That too, may be a record #. Three non play off teams, UNI/SIU/'Nova part of the 12.

[BisonHype!]

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

NDSU ends the season at #17 (and 12th in the predictor ratings, which are considered the most accurate)!

Pretty Cool To See!

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[DFW HOYA]

The bottom 10:

Texas Southern
Mississippi Valley State
Houston Baptist
Columbia
Grambling State
Campbell
Morehead State
Stetson
Valparaiso
Davidson (only team with a rating below zero).

[kbswish22]

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

NDSU ends the season at #17 (and 12th in the predictor ratings, which are considered the most accurate)!

Actually 22nd in predictor. I think somewhere from 15-25 is about right

[BisonPride]

wow! that's way too high and i'm a huge fcs fan but too many teams below them would bury them on the field

So swap them down to #22 then? KState is #23 and they already beat them. With the exception of 5 minutes in the 3rd Qtr NDSU was in control most of the game. Held KState to their lowest point total of the year and 140 yards under their rushing average for the year. Minnesota Vikings play by play guy said it accurately on his radio show this morning. "They are not a top 10 team but somewhere between 15 and 25 is pretty accurate."

[Hammersmith]

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

NDSU ends the season at #17 (and 12th in the predictor ratings, which are considered the most accurate)!

As was stated before, 22nd in Predictor. I've been playing with these numbers all year over at Bisonville(actually the last several years), and I think there might be an error in his Dimin_Curve number(the one that puts NDSU at 12). NDSU was in the twenties before the UNH game and I can't believe we could jump up that much in just two games. The high ranking in Pure_Elo(14) makes sense because it only looks at wins and losses(this is the ranking that was using the BCS formula). But Dimin_Curve is score-based like Predictor and shouldn't be as high as it is.

[centennial]

I think we are top 20 team. Week in and week out with 63 scholarships our depth would have gotten exposed but in a one off game we are a solid team. What teams below us would completely bury us?

[deez_na]

What teams below us would bury us?

[Dane96]

I think we are top 20 team. Week in and week out with 63 scholarships our depth would have gotten exposed but in a one off game we are a solid team. What teams below us would completely bury us?

Louisville
Arizona State (forgetting the bowl performance)
USC
Texas A&M
UCF
Texas Tech


All those teams have offenses that would go buck-wild on NDSU, as great as a team that NDSU was this season.

[marenlee]

Gotta love the hypothetical matchups :p

[thebootfitter]

Louisville
Arizona State (forgetting the bowl performance)
USC
Texas A&M
UCF
Texas Tech


All those teams have offenses that would go buck-wild on NDSU, as great as a team that NDSU was this season.
I haven't watched enough games of those teams to dispute this much, though I would question that any team would go "buck wild" on the Bison defense. Those teams may score well above the scoring Average of the NDSU D, but I'd be willing to bet NDSU would hold them to lower totals than their season averages.

[FargoBison]

Louisville
Arizona State (forgetting the bowl performance)
USC
Texas A&M
UCF
Texas Tech


All those teams have offenses that would go buck-wild on NDSU, as great as a team that NDSU was this season.

I'm not sure about that. Some of those teams would but not all of them.

[Dane96]

I haven't watched enough games of those teams to dispute this much, though I would question that any team would go "buck wild" on the Bison defense. Those teams may score well above the scoring Average of the NDSU D, but I'd be willing to bet NDSU would hold them to lower totals than their season averages.

I watch a lot of college football. IMHO, these teams would go BUCKWILD offensively vs. even the stoutest NDSU defense.

Now a team like Wisconsin, I still think beats NDSU...but will be held below their season average by NDSU.

The Octane on those offenses listed above are just way up.

[centennial]

Louisville
Arizona State (forgetting the bowl performance)
USC
Texas A&M
UCF
Texas Tech


All those teams have offenses that would go buck-wild on NDSU, as great as a team that NDSU was this season.
The only ones that would beat NDSU are maybe Texas A&M, UCF. Other than that we would hold our own, saying that we have no chance against these teams isn't fair. PS- I watched a lot of college football too.

[Bisonator]

Louisville
Arizona State (forgetting the bowl performance)
USC
Texas A&M
UCF
Texas Tech


All those teams have offenses that would go buck-wild on NDSU, as great as a team that NDSU was this season.

National Sports Rankings simulator says:

Louisville - wins 75 of 100 - avg. score 26-20
Az State - wins 89 of 100 - avg. score 37-24
USC - wins 74 of 100 - avg. score 24-18
Texas A&M - wins 83 of 100 - avg. score 36-27
UCF - NDSU wins 67 of 100 - avg. score 29-26
Texas Tech - NDSU wins 58 of 100 - avg. score 26-24

Just for fun Florida State would win 99 out of 100 with an average score of 43-13. That would be burying us.

Also these are all with NDSU as the road team.

[FargoBison]

TTU scored 26 points against K-State at home....NDSU put 24 on them on the road. I won't even get into the fact that K-State went buckwild on TTU offensively and we all know that wasn't the case vs NDSU.

[bisonboone11]

Louisville
Arizona State (forgetting the bowl performance)
USC
Texas A&M
UCF
Texas Tech


All those teams have offenses that would go buck-wild on NDSU, as great as a team that NDSU was this season.
Kansas State throttled Texas Tech at their place (they were up 35-10 at halftime). What makes you think Texas Tech would "bury" NDSU?

[Texas]

Kansas State throttled Texas Tech at their place (they were up 35-10 at halftime). What makes you think Texas Tech would "bury" NDSU?

Lets not use that crazy logic. You beat KState early on in the year they haven't had much time to gel as a team. NDSU wouldn't beat KState again if they played later on the year.

Tech would destroy you. Along with everyone listed.


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[FargoBison]

I don't think people understand the amount of depth this NDSU team had. Coastal's coach said he thought NDSU would give South Carolina a game....now I have to listen to random fans say much lessor teams than South Carolina would bury NDSU.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Lets not use that crazy logic. You beat KState early on in the year they haven't had much time to gel as a team. NDSU wouldn't beat KState again if they played later on the year.

Tech would destroy you. Along with everyone listed.


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I think Kansas State would have beaten NDSU later in the year as well. The Wildcats had a higher ceiling than the Bison given the amount of talent they lost from a very good 2012 team. This is not an indictment of NDSU, rather a matter of respect for Bill Snyder and his coaching staff.

[FargoBison]

Lets not use that crazy logic. You beat KState early on in the year they haven't had much time to gel as a team. NDSU wouldn't beat KState again if they played later on the year.

Tech would destroy you. Along with everyone listed.


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I disagree. NDSU would give Tech a game.

If you can run the ball and control the clock you can slow Tech down. NDSU would do exactly that. I'm not saying NDSU would win though.

[Texas]

I don't think people understand the amount of depth this NDSU team had. Coastal's coach said he thought NDSU would give South Carolina a game....now I have to listen to random fans say much lessor teams than South Carolina would bury NDSU.

Get over yourself. Reality is a veteran NDSU barely beat a young KSU team with a new QB early in the season. It was a perfect situation for NDSU, if that game was scheduled for November I would bet that score wouldn't even be close.
That coach was being nice, comments like that happen a lot.


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[Bisonator]

I think Kansas State would have beaten NDSU later in the year as well. The Wildcats had a higher ceiling than the Bison given the amount of talent they lost from a very good 2012 team. This is not an indictment of NDSU, rather a matter of respect for Bill Snyder and his coaching staff.

KSU and NDSU are pretty even. Predictor says KSU wins 54 out of 100 by an average of 1 point. With all due respect to Coach Snyder and the Wildcats I would still like our chances.

[FargoBison]

Get over yourself. Reality is a veteran NDSU barely beat a young KSU team with a new QB early in the season. It was a perfect situation for NDSU, if that game was scheduled for November I would bet that score wouldn't even be close.
That coach was being nice, comments like that happen a lot.


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K-State returned 8 offensive starters, including their entire OL, RB and star WR. That team was a bit more seasoned then you think.

NDSU beat them without its best defensive lineman.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

K-State returned 8 offensive starters, including their entire OL, RB and star WR. That team was a bit more seasoned then you think.

NDSU beat them without its best defensive lineman.

K-State was no settled on a QB to open the season which clearly showed against NDSU. Most people thought Sams was going to be the guy to replace Klein this time last year. Waters must have came on pretty strong in spring ball which led to a pretty tight competition leading into the fall. The lack of identity was very apparent against NDSU.

Also, losing Arthur Brown really hurt. He was basically the QB of the KSU defense last year.

[FargoBison]

NDSU could have won every playoff game by as many points as Coach Bohl wanted. Not even some bizarre coaching distraction that no team has ever gone through could slow the team down. Now it is crazy to think NDSU could beat K-State again or even give Texas freaking Tech a game.

Some people here still don't get how good this team was and it amazes me.

[Dane96]

Kansas State throttled Texas Tech at their place (they were up 35-10 at halftime). What makes you think Texas Tech would "bury" NDSU?

Because Texas Tech will put up at least 30-35 points against NDSU. The question remains...can NDSU put up more than 20? If so, you have a game. I don't believe they would. I think NDSU would lose to Texas Tech by 17+

Again, my opinion.

[Dane96]

I don't think people understand the amount of depth this NDSU team had. Coastal's coach said he thought NDSU would give South Carolina a game....now I have to listen to random fans say much lessor teams than South Carolina would bury NDSU.

First, that statement from Coastal's Coach, if true, is flippin ridiculous and cannot be taken seriously. S. Carolina is a top 5 team. So you really believe a coach that thinks NDSU would give S. Carolina or Michigan State a game (those teams are highly interchangeable). Heck, I think Auburn, Michigan State, S. Carolina, FSU, Missouri, Oklahoma and Alabama are all interchangeable in some ways. Fact is, they would destroy NDSU, no matter what the Coastal coach stated.

I think I do understand depth, I've played and coached the game and sent kids off to DI through NAIA schools...and I've watched enough of all the teams I had mentioned. They all have super charged offenses. While NDSU has great depth, on a week to week basis and with only 63 rides that depth is still less than that of an 85 scholly team playing in these power conferences with high octane offenses. I do think NDSU would do very well in FBS with this team...but they would still get beat badly by the teams listed below them that I mentioned.

And frankly, I think Wisconsin would do a number on them as well but that game I think would be more physical than skilled.

All the teams I've mentioned will hang at least 30-40 points on NDSU. The question is can NDSU score 20-30 points. If no, then it's a burying.

[Dane96]

KSU and NDSU are pretty even. Predictor says KSU wins 54 out of 100 by an average of 1 point. With all due respect to Coach Snyder and the Wildcats I would still like our chances.

A lot of simulators predict a lot of things that never happen...

[FargoBison]

I think I do understand depth. I think I've also played and coached the game...and I've watched enough of all the teams mentioned. They all have super charged offenses. While NDSU has great depth, on a week to week basis and with only 63 rides that depth is still less than that of an 85 scholly team playing in these power conferences with high octane offenses. I do think NDSU would do very well in FBS with this team...but they would still get beat badly by the teams listed below them that I mentioned.

And frankly, I think Wisconsin would do a number on them as well but that game I think would be more physical than skilled.

All the teams I've mentioned will hang at least 30-40 points on NDSU. The question is can NDSU score 20-30 points. If no, then it's a burying.

I think you are forgetting that NDSU is built to slow the game down and basically make a team earn every single yard offensively. It is a formula that can work vs explosive teams, Stanford has proven that and so has Michigan State. I think NDSU could give every team on that list but a few a game. I don't think NDSU would have an issue with running the ball on any of those teams, so yeah they would score points and have a competitive game. Some teams on that list don't even know what defense is.

[bisonboone11]

Lets not use that crazy logic. You beat KState early on in the year they haven't had much time to gel as a team. NDSU wouldn't beat KState again if they played later on the year.

Tech would destroy you. Along with everyone listed.


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Just curious, where would you rank this NDSU team in the Big 12?

[FargoBison]

I want to make it clear that in my posts I'm talking about giving these teams a competitive game. I'm not saying NDSU is going to beat all of them.

[NoDak 4 Ever]

First, that statement from Coastal's Coach, if true, is flippin ridiculous and cannot be taken seriously. S. Carolina is a top 5 team. So you really believe a coach that thinks NDSU would give S. Carolina or Michigan State a game (those teams are highly interchangeable). Heck, I think Auburn, Michigan State, S. Carolina, FSU, Missouri, Oklahoma and Alabama are all interchangeable in some ways. Fact is, they would destroy NDSU, no matter what the Coastal coach stated.

I think I do understand depth, I've played and coached the game and sent kids off to DI through NAIA schools...and I've watched enough of all the teams I had mentioned. They all have super charged offenses. While NDSU has great depth, on a week to week basis and with only 63 rides that depth is still less than that of an 85 scholly team playing in these power conferences with high octane offenses. I do think NDSU would do very well in FBS with this team...but they would still get beat badly by the teams listed below them that I mentioned.

And frankly, I think Wisconsin would do a number on them as well but that game I think would be more physical than skilled.

All the teams I've mentioned will hang at least 30-40 points on NDSU. The question is can NDSU score 20-30 points. If no, then it's a burying.

That is, of course, just his opinion. Which apparently matters only when you say it.

[Dane96]

I keep reading--by numerous posters--"You're forgetting". Personally speaking, I am not forgetting anything and I am basing MY OPINION on watching NDSU play multiple times and watching all said teams play...multiple times. I am assessing what these teams have done and what injuries they may have suffered (e.g. T Tech was platooning two FROSH QB's after (Webb and Mayfield) after Mayfield went down in game 2 with a knee injury. They still hung a ton of points on the big boys.

You may try to slow the game down but, as an example, T. Tech had less than 50% T.O.P. all season long. Yet, they score on nearly 90% of Red Zone opportunities, which were nearly 60% for TD's. They averaged 500 plus yards a game.

Slow it down all you want...but these guys were highly efficient. So, if you slow it down it means less scoring opportunities for NDSU. That said, T. Tech still converts most of their drives for scores. That's a tough hill to climb if you don't want to be buried.

I'm forgetting nothing...I am simply stating my point based on GAME ANALYSIS.

[Dane96]

That is, of course, just his opinion. Which apparently matters only when you say it.

No, it doesn't just matter when I say it.

But let me ask you this: Do you really believe that statement he made...that NDSU could hang with S. Carolina, which in turns mean they could hang with most, if not all, of the Top 7 teams?

Be honest.

[Dane96]

Just curious, where would you rank this NDSU team in the Big 12?

I know you didn't ask me but I will take a crack: 7th...right above / equal to TCU and above WVU.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Just curious, where would you rank this NDSU team in the Big 12?

I'm not answering for him but my guess would be 6th or 7th. The top 3 are clearly better imo. The Texas, K-State and TTech group is where NDSU would fall-in imo....

1. Oklahoma
2. Oklahoma State
3. Baylor
4. Texas
5. Kansas State
6. NDSU
7. Texas Tech
8. TCU
9. WVU
10. Iowa State
11. Kansas

[FargoBison]

I keep reading--by numerous posters--"You're forgetting". Personally speaking, I am not forgetting anything and I am basing MY OPINION on watching NDSU play multiple times and watching all said teams play...multiple times. I am assessing what these teams have done and what injuries they may have suffered (e.g. T Tech was platooning two FROSH QB's after (Webb and Mayfield) after Mayfield went down in game 2 with a knee injury. They still hung a ton of points on the big boys.

You may try to slow the game down but, as an example, T. Tech had less than 50% T.O.P. all season long. Yet, they score on nearly 90% of Red Zone opportunities, which were nearly 60% for TD's. They averaged 500 plus yards a game.

Slow it down all you want...but these guys were highly efficient. So, if you slow it down it means less scoring opportunities for NDSU. That said, T. Tech still converts most of their drives for scores. That's a tough hill to climb if you don't want to be buried.

I'm forgetting nothing...I am simply stating my point based on GAME ANALYSIS.

Whenever I've watch Tech play I've seen a team that struggles defensively, even against mediocre and bad competition. So I don't think scoring would be a struggle.

[bisonboone11]

I know you didn't ask me but I will take a crack: 7th...right above / equal to TCU and above WVU.
Ok. TCU lost by 10 at TTU (tie game half way through the 4th quarter). WVU lost by 10 to TTU (TTU was down 4 going into the 4th quarter). If you think NDSU is right above or equal to those teams, why do you think they would get buried by TTU when those teams didn't?

[Bisonator]

A lot of simulators predict a lot of things that never happen...

Yeah well until there is a better method then just your eyeballing it let me know. xlolx

[Dane96]

Whenever I've watch Tech play I've seen a team that struggles defensively, even against mediocre and bad competition. So I don't think scoring would be a struggle.

Don't disagree at all; T. Tech is ALWAYS a liability from a defensive standpoint. However, it's the slowing the game down bit. Put it this way: T. Tech is likely to be effective scoring most of the time. It would mean NDSU would have to capitalize on most of it's possessions if they were to play a slow-down game.

[MarkyMark]

I think Kansas State would have beaten NDSU later in the year as well. The Wildcats had a higher ceiling than the Bison given the amount of talent they lost from a very good 2012 team. This is not an indictment of NDSU, rather a matter of respect for Bill Snyder and his coaching staff.

NDSU beat K State at their house on their opener. Everyone likes to talk about the timing of this win but NDSU accomplished something that has been nearly impossible for any team FCS or FBS to do to at K State since Snyder took over.

NDSU was also a much better team by the end of the year than it was at the beginning. Give us a neutral field and I would give NDSU better odds to beat K State again.

[Bisonator]

B12 defenses suck. Only B12 teams NDSU couldn't handle is probably Baylor, OU and OSU.

[Dane96]

Ok. TCU lost by 10 at TTU (tie game half way through the 4th quarter). WVU lost by 10 to TTU (TTU was down 4 going into the 4th quarter). If you think NDSU is right above or equal to those teams, why do you think they would get buried by TTU when those teams didn't?

1. WVU game: Tech was down 4, and the last score by WVU was due to a P.I. call. That said, the game is on the road and if you go in with the "3 points at home mentality", you have to think that Tech still won nicely...by 10, on the road in a game they racked up nearly 600 yards.

2. TCU was ranked 24th at the time of the game. Texas was going with a frosh QB who was replacing another Frosh Walk-On QB who suffered a knee injury during the game (Webb for Mayfield). Mayfield proceeded to throw 3 Picks. The had the ball for just over 24 minutes. They still won by 10 points in a poorly played game.

That said, In a one-off game at a neutral site and with the teams as currently as constructed...I do believe NDSU has a shot to stay within 10-14 points of Tech. At home, Tech wins by 17+.

[kbswish22]

I'm so sick of the "you caught Kstate early before they could gel and NDSU wouldn't beat them again" bull****. Kstate returned 4 or 5 starters on the oline and their starting running back. Yet they couldn't run the ball at all despite NDSU not having their best dlineman playing in Perry. The game was AT Kstate. Waters was 21 for 29 for 280 so its not like he played poorly. Kstate scored off of two big pass plays and off the totally unforced jensen pick. NDSU straight up DROPPED a TD pass in the first half and then missed the ensuing FG. Its not like NDSU played a perfect game. NDSU had more first downs, yards, and TOP was 36-24. NDSU averaged 5 yards per carry and Kstate averaged 1.9. That tells me NDSU was better than kstate on the line of scrimmage (again without Perry). If a team is better on the line of scrimmage it will almost always have a chance to win. Sagarin and Massey, probably the two most respected statistical analysts for college football both say NDSU is better. I'm not saying NDSU beats Kstate every time by any means. But it was not a fluke, and it is lazy, unsubstantiated analysis to just say "oh kstate would beat NDSU later on".

[bisonboone11]

1. WVU game: Tech was down 4, and the last score by WVU was due to a P.I. call. That said, the game is on the road and if you go in with the "3 points at home mentality", you have to think that Tech still won nicely...by 10, on the road in a game they racked up nearly 600 yards.

2. TCU was ranked 24th at the time of the game. Texas was going with a frosh QB who was replacing another Frosh Walk-On QB who suffered a knee injury during the game (Webb for Mayfield). Mayfield proceeded to throw 3 Picks. The had the ball for just over 24 minutes. They still won by 10 points in a poorly played game.

That said, In a one-off game at a neutral site and with the teams as currently as constructed...I do believe NDSU has a shot to stay within 10-14 points of Tech. At home, Tech wins by 17+.
What is your explanation for the Iowa State game, where they only won by 7 at home?

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I'm so sick of the "you caught Kstate early before they could gel and NDSU wouldn't beat them again" bull****. Kstate returned 4 or 5 starters on the oline and their starting running back. Yet they couldn't run the ball at all despite NDSU not having their best dlineman playing in Perry. The game was AT Kstate. Waters was 21 for 29 for 280 so its not like he played poorly. Kstate scored off of two big pass plays and off the totally unforced jensen pick. NDSU straight up DROPPED a TD pass in the first half and then missed the ensuing FG. Its not like NDSU played a perfect game. NDSU had more first downs, yards, and TOP was 36-24. NDSU averaged 5 yards per carry and Kstate averaged 1.9. That tells me NDSU was better than kstate on the line of scrimmage (again without Perry). If a team is better on the line of scrimmage it will almost always have a chance to win. Sagarin and Massey, probably the two most respected statistical analysts for college football both say NDSU is better. I'm not saying NDSU beats Kstate every time by any means. But it was not a fluke, and it is lazy, unsubstantiated analysis to just say "oh kstate would beat NDSU later on".

I'm not sure anyone is saying that. I firmly believe that Kansas State had more room to improve from the start of the year to the end. NDSU improved as well but the amount they could wasn't nearly as much as Kansas State.

The biggest problem K-State had to start the year was the lack of indentity on offense. They tried to run a similar type of offense they used with Klein against NDSU and it simply wasn't working. The Bison D obviously had a lot to do with that. I think there was some of the coaching staff that really wanted Sams to be the QB to start the year. It took a few weeks for Waters to eventually win everyone over.

I've also said that App State wouldn't have beaten Michigan later in 2007 either. Michigan improved dramatically that year, more so than KState this year perhaps.

[Dane96]

What is your explanation for the Iowa State game, where they only won by 7 at home?

None. I never said T Tech was a world beater. But they are capable, and more often than not do, of scoring 30-40 pts on a team. They average nearly 36. So the point remains, do you think NDSU is going to hold them to under 30 a game...and do you think NDSU scores more than 14.

If you do believe both...then yep, you have a ball game. If you don't, then you have a big time win by Tech.

That's all my point has ever been.

But if you want to use the Iowa State game as a comparison, how would you explain NDSU's win by 1 over UNI, the ONLY 18 point win over a pretty poor Illinois State, or a 15 point win over Missouri State, all in Fargo. I'd say, NDSU, like all teams, had off-days. If you want to argue the MVFC just beat each other up...i'd say your probably correct. But the same logic would have to apply to TTU and the Big 12.

I can't even believe I'm defending the Big XII. I hate that conference.

[kbswish22]

None. I never said T Tech was a world beater. But they are capable, and more often than not do, of scoring 30-40 pts on a team. They average nearly 36. So the point remains, do you think NDSU is going to hold them to under 30 a game...and do you think NDSU scores more than 14.

If you do believe both...then yep, you have a ball game. If you don't, then you have a big time win by Tech.

That's all my point has ever been.

But if you want to use the Iowa State game as a comparison, how would you explain NDSU's win by 1 over UNI, the ONLY 18 point win over a pretty poor Illinois State, or a 15 point win over Missouri State, all in Fargo. I'd say, NDSU, like all teams, had off-days. If you want to argue the MVFC just beat each other up...i'd say your probably correct. But the same logic would have to apply to TTU and the Big 12.

I can't even believe I'm defending the Big XII. I hate that conference.

Well UNI won AT Iowa State by 8 even with a late fumble at the 1yd line or it woulda been 15. But, I do understand your point about off days, and it is valid. However, NDSU would score a hell of a lot more than 14 on texas tech. And while it is CERTAINLY possible, I don't think a Defense that held Kstate to 21 on the road (could argue 7 of those were on Jensen due to short field) without one of its best players would give up 30 to Tech as a matter of course, not with the offense playing ball control. I can't believe people think that Texas freaking Tech would blow out a team that just won every game in the FCS playoffs by 28 or more even with taking the foot off the gas in every single game, that is loaded with seniors and juniors, and that won at Kstate who crushed texas tech at tech. We are talking about arguably the best FCS team ever and they are going to get blown out by an 8-5 team with ONE win over a team with a winning record? Maybe NDSU should have ran up the score and won every playoff game by 40.

[bisonboone11]

None. I never said T Tech was a world beater. But they are capable, and more often than not do, of scoring 30-40 pts on a team. They average nearly 36. So the point remains, do you think NDSU is going to hold them to under 30 a game...and do you think NDSU scores more than 14.

If you do believe both...then yep, you have a ball game. If you don't, then you have a big time win by Tech.

That's all my point has ever been.

But if you want to use the Iowa State game as a comparison, how would you explain NDSU's win by 1 over UNI, the ONLY 18 point win over a pretty poor Illinois State, or a 15 point win over Missouri State, all in Fargo. I'd say, NDSU, like all teams, had off-days. If you want to argue the MVFC just beat each other up...i'd say your probably correct. But the same logic would have to apply to TTU and the Big 12.

I can't even believe I'm defending the Big XII. I hate that conference.
I'm not only using the Iowa State game. I'm using Iowa State, TCU, WVU, and Kansas State. You said that you believe NDSU is equal or above TCU and WVU, which I'm assuming means you think they are above Iowa State. Iowa State, TCU, and WVU all gave TTU pretty much all they could handle.

One of your comments regarding the TCU game was that the QB threw 3 interceptions before he got injured, and that they still won by 10 in a poorly played game. I could understand that being a valid excuse if that was uncommon for them, because like you said, every team has off days. However, 3 turnovers was not an "off day" for TTU this year. That was the norm. They had 3+ turnovers in 9 games this year. They were the third worst FBS team in turnover margin. If TTU committed 0 or 1 turnovers in a game against NDSU, then I would believe that they would win by 17+. However, statistically, they would be much more likely to have 3 or 4 turnovers.

To answer your question, I do believe NDSU would be able to hold TTU to around or under 30 points and I definitely think NDSU would score quite a bit more than 14. Do you honestly think this NDSU team would get beaten by 17+ points in a game where the opposing team has 3 or 4 turnovers like TTU had in most of their games this year?

[BISON Thunder]

I want to make it clear that in my posts I'm talking about giving these teams a competitive game. I'm not saying NDSU is going to beat all of them.
It appears by some on this thread, teams must beat other teams more than once per season to be considered a better team. I hereby name the University of Northern Iowa the 2013 FCS National Champions.

[frozennorth]

I watch a lot of college football. IMHO, these teams would go BUCKWILD offensively vs. even the stoutest NDSU defense.

Now a team like Wisconsin, I still think beats NDSU...but will be held below their season average by NDSU.

The Octane on those offenses listed above are just way up.

i watch alot of college football too and the only one of those teams that I don't think NDSU could handle was USC. Texas A&M would score alot of points, but they would give up just as many.

[frozennorth]

Get over yourself. Reality is a veteran NDSU barely beat a young KSU team with a new QB early in the season. It was a perfect situation for NDSU, if that game was scheduled for November I would bet that score wouldn't even be close.
That coach was being nice, comments like that happen a lot.


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ksu returned arguably the best o-line in the country and excellent skill position talent. All they had to do was plug in a good QB, which they did, and he played well in that game. NDSU got alot better over the course of the year as well.

[frozennorth]

K-State was no settled on a QB to open the season which clearly showed against NDSU. Most people thought Sams was going to be the guy to replace Klein this time last year. Waters must have came on pretty strong in spring ball which led to a pretty tight competition leading into the fall. The lack of identity was very apparent against NDSU.

Also, losing Arthur Brown really hurt. He was basically the QB of the KSU defense last year.
the arguement at the time was that they used sams to little in that game, contradicting your 'lack of identity' hypothesis. It was after that when snyder got his doubts and started dicking around with multiple QB's.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Baylor vs. NDSU would be a mythical matchup I would have love to have seen.

[Mr. C]

I guess I need to pull out my best Joe Friday here. First off, anyone who has any background working with these computer rankings should know by now that Sagarin is a very inaccurate system, because Sagarin does not even bother to use ALL games. I never have understood why his ratings are so popular, other than because it has been in USA Today for so long. Next, as good as North Dakota State, Appalachian State, or any other great FCS team has been, the fact remains that FCS is 63 scholarships and BCS/FBS is 85 scholarships. Over the course of a season, a team like NDSU would get worn down and would likely suffer more injuries playing against teams with the resources of 22 extra scholarships week-in and week-out. In an one-off situation, there is the chance that a team like ASU can beat Michigan, NDSU can beat Kansas State, Eastern Washington can beat Oregon State, James Madison can beat Virginia Tech, or The Citadel can stop Arkansas and South Carolina. Almost all of the major upsets with FCS teams beating BCS/FBS squads have come in the first few weeks of the season, the time where those upper-level teams are most vulnerable. Georgia Southern topped Florida in the final weekend, but that was not a normal circumstance (and is the latest I ever remember for that sizable of an upset). One of the things that makes a game like that great is the fact that we so rarely see it. Michigan, which was ranked No. 5 nationally when it lost to App State, recovered to have a pretty good season after a slow start and beat a Tim Tebow-led Florida squad in a BCS bowl game at the end of the season. Kansas State looked pretty impressive in tearing apart a Michigan squad that nearly beat Ohio State in its bowl game. North Dakota State is a special team in the annals of FCS, right up there with Marshall, Georgia Southern (take your pick of which year between the Erk Russell and Paul Johnson eras) and Appalachian State, along with some others like 2003 Delaware and the great Youngstown State squads. But lets no overdo it with stuff that just doesn't make a lot of sense. Even the best FCS teams of all time would have difficulty going through a BCS schedule and finishing with a winning record.

[frozennorth]

I'm not sure anyone is saying that. I firmly believe that Kansas State had more room to improve from the start of the year to the end. NDSU improved as well but the amount they could wasn't nearly as much as Kansas State.

The biggest problem K-State had to start the year was the lack of indentity on offense. They tried to run a similar type of offense they used with Klein against NDSU and it simply wasn't working. The Bison D obviously had a lot to do with that. I think there was some of the coaching staff that really wanted Sams to be the QB to start the year. It took a few weeks for Waters to eventually win everyone over.

I've also said that App State wouldn't have beaten Michigan later in 2007 either. Michigan improved dramatically that year, more so than KState this year perhaps.
you obviously did not watch the kstate game. Also, as a michigan fan, I can assure you that michigan did not improve much that year. They slipped up to ASU and lost to a much better oregon team, then won 8 straight, before losing their last two games.

[frozennorth]

I guess I need to pull out my best Joe Friday here. First off, anyone who has any background working with these computer rankings should know by now that Sagarin is a very inaccurate system, because Sagarin does not even bother to use ALL games. I never have understood why his ratings are so popular, other than because it has been in USA Today for so long. Next, as good as North Dakota State, Appalachian State, or any other great FCS team has been, the fact remains that FCS is 63 scholarships and BCS/FBS is 85 scholarships. Over the course of a season, a team like NDSU would get worn down and would likely suffer more injuries playing against teams with the resources of 22 extra scholarships week-in and week-out. In an one-off situation, there is the chance that a team like ASU can beat Michigan, NDSU can beat Kansas State, Eastern Washington can beat Oregon State, James Madison can beat Virginia Tech, or The Citadel can stop Arkansas and South Carolina. Almost all of the major upsets with FCS teams beating BCS/FBS squads have come in the first few weeks of the season, the time where those upper-level teams are most vulnerable. Georgia Southern topped Florida in the final weekend, but that was not a normal circumstance (and is the latest I ever remember for that sizable of an upset). One of the things that makes a game like that great is the fact that we so rarely see it. Michigan, which was ranked No. 5 nationally when it lost to App State, recovered to have a pretty good season after a slow start and beat a Tim Tebow-led Florida squad in a BCS bowl game at the end of the season. Kansas State looked pretty impressive in tearing apart a Michigan squad that nearly beat Ohio State in its bowl game. North Dakota State is a special team in the annals of FCS, right up there with Marshall, Georgia Southern (take your pick of which year between the Erk Russell and Paul Johnson eras) and Appalachian State, along with some others like 2003 Delaware and the great Youngstown State squads. But lets no overdo it with stuff that just doesn't make a lot of sense. Even the best FCS teams of all time would have difficulty going through a BCS schedule and finishing with a winning record.
I expect better than this poorly reasoned post from you. Most upsets occur in the opening weeks? No **** thats when the games are played.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

you obviously did not watch the kstate game. Also, as a michigan fan, I can assure you that michigan did not improve much that year. They slipped up to ASU and lost to a much better oregon team, then won 8 straight, before losing their last two games.

I watched the entire NDSU-KState game and still have it recorded. The KState offense in my opinion, wasn't sure what it was doing. Waters struggle passing and when Sams came in on a limited basis he did not fair very well either. Sams had one good run iirc.

That was a still a pretty good Michigan team, one that improved over the course of the year. They were not the #5 team to start the year. Their preseason ranking was directly related to the fact that Michigan and OSU were 1 & 2 for the majority of 2006 and Henne and Hart returned to. The fact is, they had replace a lot of talented guys in the trenches, especially on defense.

Michigan losing two tough games against Wisky and Ohio State to end the regular season is nothing to apologize about. Lloyd Carr ultimately went out a winner against the defending champions.

[BisonBacker]

Lets not use that crazy logic. You beat KState early on in the year they haven't had much time to gel as a team. NDSU wouldn't beat KState again if they played later on the year.

Tech would destroy you. Along with everyone listed.


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I have to chuckle at these kinds of statements and logic or lack of. First off we are ridiculed because we didn't play anyone worthy enough in our OOC games. Then when we do and win it's because they had a bad year and they still weren't a great team. Then we play the conference champs from the year before from the big12 and now we only one because we played them at the beginning of the year. Nevermind that our team (NDSU) may also have "Gelled" as a team. Good grief you guys are pathetic. NDSU and or it's fans will never win this debate with FBS fans but hearing it from FCS fans who should know better is somewhat disappointing. Maybe NDSU needed to just beat every FCS team by at least 50 points and throttle any FBS team by 25 points before they are given any credit? xbangx

[kbswish22]

I watched the entire NDSU-KState game and still have it recorded. The KState offense in my opinion, wasn't sure what it was doing. Waters struggle passing and when Sams came in on a limited basis he did not fair very well either. Sams had one good run iirc.

That was a still a pretty good Michigan team, one that improved over the course of the year. They were not the #5 team to start the year. Their preseason ranking was directly related to the fact that Michigan and OSU were 1 & 2 for the majority of 2006 and Henne and Hart returned to. The fact is, they had replace a lot of talented guys in the trenches, especially on defense.

Michigan losing two tough games against Wisky and Ohio State to end the regular season is nothing to apologize about. Lloyd Carr ultimately went out a winner against the defending champions.

Sams had 2 carries. One he ran 17 for a TD, one he got stuffed. Waters was 21-29 for 280 yards 2TDs 2picks (one pick when it was all but over already so not an impact on the game, the other was a poor decision under pressure, but that pick didn't end up hurting Kstate because NDSU dropped TD). Not exactly struggling passing imho. Kstate flat out could not run the ball well enough to have a consistent offense in that game. Credit that to the 4 or 5 returning starters on the OLine and the returning starter at RB if you want. I will credit it to the NDSU defense.

[Texas]

I have to chuckle at these kinds of statements and logic or lack of. First off we are ridiculed because we didn't play anyone worthy enough in our OOC games. Then when we do and win it's because they had a bad year and they still weren't a great team. Then we play the conference champs from the year before from the big12 and now we only one because we played them at the beginning of the year. Nevermind that our team (NDSU) may also have "Gelled" as a team. Good grief you guys are pathetic. NDSU and or it's fans will never win this debate with FBS fans but hearing it from FCS fans who should know better is somewhat disappointing. Maybe NDSU needed to just beat every FCS team by at least 50 points and throttle any FBS team by 25 points before they are given any credit? xbangx

You were given credit for being a great team. All you bison fans cling to them being the Big 12 champs, fact is the team you played are not the Big 12 champs. They were last year sure but no where near close this year. Fight it all you want but you played a team with out their Heisman candidate QB and a new system. There are always growing pains with change. NDSU was one of those pains.


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[kbswish22]

I guess I need to pull out my best Joe Friday here. First off, anyone who has any background working with these computer rankings should know by now that Sagarin is a very inaccurate system, because Sagarin does not even bother to use ALL games. I never have understood why his ratings are so popular, other than because it has been in USA Today for so long. Next, as good as North Dakota State, Appalachian State, or any other great FCS team has been, the fact remains that FCS is 63 scholarships and BCS/FBS is 85 scholarships. Over the course of a season, a team like NDSU would get worn down and would likely suffer more injuries playing against teams with the resources of 22 extra scholarships week-in and week-out. In an one-off situation, there is the chance that a team like ASU can beat Michigan, NDSU can beat Kansas State, Eastern Washington can beat Oregon State, James Madison can beat Virginia Tech, or The Citadel can stop Arkansas and South Carolina. Almost all of the major upsets with FCS teams beating BCS/FBS squads have come in the first few weeks of the season, the time where those upper-level teams are most vulnerable. Georgia Southern topped Florida in the final weekend, but that was not a normal circumstance (and is the latest I ever remember for that sizable of an upset). One of the things that makes a game like that great is the fact that we so rarely see it. Michigan, which was ranked No. 5 nationally when it lost to App State, recovered to have a pretty good season after a slow start and beat a Tim Tebow-led Florida squad in a BCS bowl game at the end of the season. Kansas State looked pretty impressive in tearing apart a Michigan squad that nearly beat Ohio State in its bowl game. North Dakota State is a special team in the annals of FCS, right up there with Marshall, Georgia Southern (take your pick of which year between the Erk Russell and Paul Johnson eras) and Appalachian State, along with some others like 2003 Delaware and the great Youngstown State squads. But lets no overdo it with stuff that just doesn't make a lot of sense. Even the best FCS teams of all time would have difficulty going through a BCS schedule and finishing with a winning record.

Almost all the major upsets come in the beginning of the season because thats when most teams play their nonconference games. If you don't like sagarin would you prefer Massey? Or how about the Associated press poll if you prefer the "eye test" to mathematical formulas? Also, NDSU played more guys than Kstate did and sure looked fresher and deeper as they smashed 18 plays and 80 yards down Kstate's throat in the 4th quarter in the friendly confines of Bill Synder Family Stadium. Maybe Snyder should have used the BCS depth to get some guys on the field that wouldn't get dragged for 8 yards by a quarterback or pancaked flat on their back with the game on the line.

[kbswish22]

You were given credit for being a great team. All you bison fans cling to them being the Big 12 champs, fact is the team you played are not the Big 12 champs. They were last year sure but no where near close this year. Fight it all you want but you played a team with out their Heisman candidate QB and a new system. There are always growing pains with change. NDSU was one of those pains.


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Pretty sure BisonBacker specifically stated "from the year before." I'm not sure how much clearer that can be. No one claimed we beat the team that won the big 12 this year.

[Texas]

Pretty sure BisonBacker specifically stated "from the year before." I'm not sure how much clearer that can be. No one claimed we beat the team that won the big 12 this year.

Why mention it then?



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[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I have to chuckle at these kinds of statements and logic or lack of. First off we are ridiculed because we didn't play anyone worthy enough in our OOC games. Then when we do and win it's because they had a bad year and they still weren't a great team. Then we play the conference champs from the year before from the big12 and now we only one because we played them at the beginning of the year. Nevermind that our team (NDSU) may also have "Gelled" as a team. Good grief you guys are pathetic. NDSU and or it's fans will never win this debate with FBS fans but hearing it from FCS fans who should know better is somewhat disappointing. Maybe NDSU needed to just beat every FCS team by at least 50 points and throttle any FBS team by 25 points before they are given any credit? xbangx

It's not ridiculous to think that there's more talent on Kansas State's or Michigan's roster than there is/was on NDSU/App State's roster. I also don't think it's ridiculous to think that the Michigan's, K-State's or VaTech's of the world ultimately have a higher ceiling than great FCS squads because they simply recruit better and have increased depth.

Baylor beat Kentucky in hoops earlier in the year. If the two met again March my money, and most everyone else's, would be on UK to win the second time around. Is that disrespecting Baylor? No....it's about UK's talent and ultimate ceiling as the season progresses.

[BisonBacker]

Pretty sure BisonBacker specifically stated "from the year before." I'm not sure how much clearer that can be. No one claimed we beat the team that won the big 12 this year.


Why mention it then?



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Because schedules if you haven't noticed are made in advance. Every year people bitch and moan about our OOC scheduling. Go back and read about how the wins over Minnesota or Colorado state were against crappy teams. KState was the reigning Big12 conference champions. Obviously having to explain any of this to you is proof in the pudding this is a lost cause discussing this with you.

[Texas]

Because schedules if you haven't noticed are made in advance. Every year people bitch and moan about our OOC scheduling. Go back and read about how the wins over Minnesota or Colorado state were against crappy teams. KState was the reigning Big12 conference champions. Obviously having to explain any of this to you is proof in the pudding this is a lost cause discussing this with you.

Why because everyone not a Bison fan agrees with me because of rational logic?


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[DetroitFlyer]

The bottom 10:

Texas Southern
Mississippi Valley State
Houston Baptist
Columbia
Grambling State
Campbell
Morehead State
Stetson
Valparaiso
Davidson (only team with a rating below zero).

Almost makes you think that Georgetown could be competitive in the PFL....

[bisonboone11]

You were given credit for being a great team. All you bison fans cling to them being the Big 12 champs, fact is the team you played are not the Big 12 champs. They were last year sure but no where near close this year. Fight it all you want but you played a team with out their Heisman candidate QB and a new system. There are always growing pains with change. NDSU was one of those pains.


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I think every NDSU fan realizes that KSU this year was not the Big12 champion.

I asked this earlier, but maybe you didn't see it; where would you rank NDSU in the Big12 this year? I'm assuming that since you think Texas Tech would've destroyed NDSU this year, that you believe NDSU would be closer to the level of Kansas than any other team in the Big12. Would that be a correct assumption?

[semobison]

Physically we beat the crap out of K State. They were done in the 4th quarter. And, I could care less about who we could or couldn't beat in the rankings. Fact is the last 4 big bad FBS teams we have played we have beaten and 7 of the last ten. Nobody in the FCS has ever had a record like that. Could we have beaten Texas Tech? I don't know, but we definitely wouldn't fear them. Bring on the competition!

[underdawg]

This number 12 sagarin rating and number one SOS (top twenty of FCS) plus 50 cents got us a cup of coffee

[Mr. C]

Almost makes you think that Georgetown could be competitive in the PFL....
That is funny. I saw two PFL games this season (Jacksonville and Marist against Delaware and Sacred Heart) and I also saw Georgetown twice in person. I think the Hoyas would have had a tough time competing with the top teams in the PFL this year and it is only going to get harder for Georgetown to recruit with the new PL scholarship allowances.

[No_Skill]

How can we expect ESPN, major media, or anyone else for that matter to take FCS seriously when most of its own fans don't?

We just had a team go 43-2 over the last three seasons, beat multiple FBS teams, and three-peat and yet we have multiple people still saying that team is ranked too high in the computer polls and would get blown out by FBS teams near that computer ranking.

You know what, ignore the name on front of the jerseys. I don't care which FCS team accomplished it...that is a hell of a feat! Why is it so unbelievable that this team was just that good? I don't get it...

[blueballs]

NDSU was a great team this year but Louisville and particularly UCF would defeat them by multiple scores. Those two teams are waaaaay under ranked.

[Nickels]

The bottom 10:

Texas Southern
Mississippi Valley State
Houston Baptist
Columbia
Grambling State
Campbell
Morehead State
Stetson
Valparaiso
Davidson (only team with a rating below zero).
This must be this list our AD uses for ooc scheduling.

[Eightyfourbison]

Why mention it then?



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K State had no problem reminding everyone in the stands that night that they were the reigning Big 12 Champs.

[semobison]

Why because everyone not a Bison fan agrees with me because of rational logic?


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Since when is rational logic involved in deciding who would win hypothetical football games that will never be played! IT IS ALL PERSONEL OPINION!

[Mr. C]

I expect better than this poorly reasoned post from you. Most upsets occur in the opening weeks? No **** thats when the games are played.
Poorly reasoned? Maybe more like poorly understood by you. There are FCS-FBS games that are played throughout the season, if you haven't noticed. How teams that play two or more FBS games during the year? Georgia Southern beat Florida on the last weekend of the regular season. I have covered a couple of games over the years at LSU's Tiger Stadium that were played later in the season. Alabama and many other schools play their FCS opponents late in the year. You don't see many losses in those games because the chances of beating the big-boy schools decrease as the season progresses. The best chance you have to win one of those games is in the first weekend of the season. Why do you Bison fans think every non-NDSU poster is trying to put down your team?

[Mr. C]

Almost all the major upsets come in the beginning of the season because thats when most teams play their nonconference games. If you don't like sagarin would you prefer Massey? Or how about the Associated press poll if you prefer the "eye test" to mathematical formulas? Also, NDSU played more guys than Kstate did and sure looked fresher and deeper as they smashed 18 plays and 80 yards down Kstate's throat in the 4th quarter in the friendly confines of Bill Synder Family Stadium. Maybe Snyder should have used the BCS depth to get some guys on the field that wouldn't get dragged for 8 yards by a quarterback or pancaked flat on their back with the game on the line.
Did you not read why Sagarin is a bad rating system? Massey is better, but still not close to perfect. He puts too much emphasis on strength of schedule and has other problems with point differential. No one was talking anything about AP. Most of those voters do not see anything but the games they cover each week. Again, everyone thinks your team's win over Kansas State was great. That doesn't mean that NDSU would have dominated most of the teams in the Big 12, however. And again, there are FCS-FBS games scattered throughout the year, if you are paying attention.

[NDSUBowler]

Did you not read why Sagarin is a bad rating system? Massey is better, but still not close to perfect. He puts too much emphasis on strength of schedule and has other problems with point differential. No one was talking anything about AP. Most of those voters do not see anything but the games they cover each week. Again, everyone thinks your team's win over Kansas State was great. That doesn't mean that NDSU would have dominated most of the teams in the Big 12, however. And again, there are FCS-FBS games scattered throughout the year, if you are paying attention.
Well, Massey has NDSU at 17 (22 in the power ranking)...coincidentally the same as Sagarin.

Curious, if these two rankings are not that solid (in your opinion), which ranking systems do YOU prefer? So we can see where NDSU would rank there...

[NDSUBowler]

Personally, I feel like there are not going to be many teams that will blow NDSU out, just due to the style of football NDSU has. This isn't saying NDSU is better than these teams, its just saying that opportunities are going to be limited due to a VERY above average defense (#5 on Massey behind MSU, Stan, Bama, FSU) and an offensive style that limits opposing possessions. Going against a team like MSU or Stanford, I expect NDSU to lose 95% of the time, but I expect scores to be closer than the game actually is, due to both teams playing similar 'grinding' styles.

I think its hilarious people think teams would blow NDSU out, especially the teams lower than NDSU, when this would likely not happen often due to 1. NDSU is better than people give them credit for and 2. Their style is not conducive for blowouts on way or the other.

Once again, this isn't saying I think NDSU is OMGTHEBESTEVER. I just think that in cases where NDSU would lose, the score would appear closer than it is, allowing for more chances at upsets than vs other styles of other teams.

[X-Factor]

How can we expect ESPN, major media, or anyone else for that matter to take FCS seriously when most of its own fans don't?

We just had a team go 43-2 over the last three seasons, beat multiple FBS teams, and three-peat and yet we have multiple people still saying that team is ranked too high in the computer polls and would get blown out by FBS teams near that computer ranking.

You know what, ignore the name on front of the jerseys. I don't care which FCS team accomplished it...that is a hell of a feat! Why is it so unbelievable that this team was just that good? I don't get it...

Because it's not theirs

[BisonBacker]

Why because everyone not a Bison fan agrees with me because of rational logic?


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Oh so your opinion is "rational logic" and any Bison fans opinion is irrational. I see how it goes now thanks for the clarification.

[Texas]

Oh so your opinion is "rational logic" and any Bison fans opinion is irrational. I see how it goes now thanks for the clarification.

Bison fan logic is running about as bad as Bama fans thinking they could beat an NFL team.


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[Darlinikki150]

What's the big deal? Let's just be happy the FCS is getting some love and leave it at that. Shut up and hop on board the FCS train, quit being jealous it isn't your team getting the accolades.

[Hammerhead]

Not to mention the fact that NDSU's line wore down the supposedly deeper talent of an FBS team on a very hot night.

In case anyone forgot, NDSU was head and shoulders above the rest of the FCS at the end of the year beating all playoff opponents by an average score of 42-10.


I'm so sick of the "you caught Kstate early before they could gel and NDSU wouldn't beat them again" bull****. Kstate returned 4 or 5 starters on the oline and their starting running back. Yet they couldn't run the ball at all despite NDSU not having their best dlineman playing in Perry. The game was AT Kstate. Waters was 21 for 29 for 280 so its not like he played poorly. Kstate scored off of two big pass plays and off the totally unforced jensen pick. NDSU straight up DROPPED a TD pass in the first half and then missed the ensuing FG. Its not like NDSU played a perfect game. NDSU had more first downs, yards, and TOP was 36-24. NDSU averaged 5 yards per carry and Kstate averaged 1.9. That tells me NDSU was better than kstate on the line of scrimmage (again without Perry). If a team is better on the line of scrimmage it will almost always have a chance to win. Sagarin and Massey, probably the two most respected statistical analysts for college football both say NDSU is better. I'm not saying NDSU beats Kstate every time by any means. But it was not a fluke, and it is lazy, unsubstantiated analysis to just say "oh kstate would beat NDSU later on".

[Twentysix]

Not to mention the fact that NDSU's line wore down the supposedly deeper talent of an FBS team on a very hot night.

In case anyone forgot, NDSU was head and shoulders above the rest of the FCS at the end of the year beating all playoff opponents by an average score of 42-10.

They have tried their hardest to forget.

[BisonFan02]

This is almost surreal watching FCS fans debate which Top 25 teams would beat/throttle NDSU and downplay a win over KSU. That young team/undecided on QB KSU team was still all of your pregame picks to "throttle" NDSU right?

[JSUBison]

Not to mention the fact that NDSU's line wore down the supposedly deeper talent of an FBS team on a very hot night.

In case anyone forgot, NDSU was head and shoulders above the rest of the FCS at the end of the year beating all playoff opponents by an average score of 42-10.

NDSU did to the FCS in the playoffs what a typical FBS team does to the FCS during the regular season.

[Tribe4SF]

12 FCS teams in top 100. That too, may be a record #. Three non play off teams, UNI/SIU/'Nova part of the 12.

Actually four non playoff teams. W&M at #92.

[Vitojr130]

No, it doesn't just matter when I say it.

But let me ask you this: Do you really believe that statement he made...that NDSU could hang with S. Carolina, which in turns mean they could hang with most, if not all, of the Top 7 teams?

Be honest.

After watching and analyzing NDSU probably 1000x more than you, yes, I honestly believe this NDSU squad, on any give Saturday, could hang with every team in the FBS. I honestly believe there would be no blowouts. We may not win, but we wouldn't be "burried" as you so put it.

I told myself I would make it past page three before I chimed in but I just couldn't pass this up any more. NDSU has shown the world they belong at the top because they have literally "burried" every single opponent except for UNI and KSU. There were games (including playoffs) that could have been "name-your-score-and-you-got-it" games. This NDSU squad was far and above the FCS.

The players on this team may not have been 4 or 5 star recruits coming in, but they sure as heck developed into a 4 or 5 star team.

[Vitojr130]

I have to chuckle at these kinds of statements and logic or lack of. First off we are ridiculed because we didn't play anyone worthy enough in our OOC games. Then when we do and win it's because they had a bad year and they still weren't a great team. Then we play the conference champs from the year before from the big12 and now we only one because we played them at the beginning of the year. Nevermind that our team (NDSU) may also have "Gelled" as a team. Good grief you guys are pathetic. NDSU and or it's fans will never win this debate with FBS fans but hearing it from FCS fans who should know better is somewhat disappointing. Maybe NDSU needed to just beat every FCS team by at least 50 points and throttle any FBS team by 25 points before they are given any credit? xbangx

lol This could easily have been a reality vs the FCS's best in the playoffs xlolx. Bohl and co. were in complete control of every single playoff game after walking onto the field from halftime.

[Vitojr130]

Why because everyone not a Bison fan agrees with me because of rational logic?


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So you are what passes for rational logic? I'm sorry, but you should find a recording of the NDSU/KSU game and rewatch it (rewatch assuming you even took a look at the first matchup). You'll notice that halfway through the 3rd quarter, NDSU started simply DOMINATING physically. Watch the line of scrimmages. KSU was outmanned strength-wise, hands down. Sure, they could weight lift and get stronger by the end of the year to alleviate this factor of their loss...

However, they are humans just like NDSU's team. Our players probably got equally stronger as the season progressed as the KSU squad.

And, because the first one was close, KSU could possibly win the 2nd time around later on. Who knows? But, it most certainly wouldn't be a blowout. If KSU could compete with the Big 12, so could NDSU on any given saturday. There would be no "blowing out" and anyone who thinks there would be is pretty darn clueless.

[tjamz]

I've said this on other forums as well... but it's relevant to this thread:

I attended the cotton bowl and I truly believe that both OSU and Mizzou would lose to NDSU IF they played the same crappy offense and defense that they played that night AND if NDSU played their typical game. I talked with an LSU fan (booster who bought tickets early thinking LSU would be in cotton bowl) who was sitting behind me at the game as well and he was actually very familiar with NDSU... he said flat out that he felt NDSU on a one game basis would challenge any team in the fbs.... Maybe not win but provide one hell of a challenge.

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[TILIS-BisonFan]

Harvard and MIT sports predictor models are so much more accurate than anyones opinion on here. Using those is rational logic. NDSU would not get rolled long term by any team outside of the top 20 based on models that are much more accurate than my opinion

[thebootfitter]

Did you not read why Sagarin is a bad rating system? Massey is better, but still not close to perfect. He puts too much emphasis on strength of schedule and has other problems with point differential.


Harvard and MIT sports predictor models are so much more accurate than anyones opinion on here. Using those is rational logic. NDSU would not get rolled long term by any team outside of the top 20 based on models that are much more accurate than my opinion
For those of you touting any computer model, regardless of the education of their respective developers, as a "gold standard" or "more accurate than opinions," etc., I think you do need to take a step back and understand what they offer. And what they don't offer. And this is coming from someone who often uses computer models as a point of reference when making comparisons or discussing hypothetical or future match ups.

Computer models use data collected throughout the season from actual games played, including things like who won, points scored, and in some cases more details like yards gained, etc. The developer of any computer model needs to apply certain assumptions to the data in order to interpret it and convert it to a rating or scale within their system, such as do only Ws and Ls matter, or is the score differential important too? Is there a diminishing value placed on score differential as it increases, or can a team get more credit if they continue to run up the score on other teams. What is the algorithm for calculating strength of schedule and what impact does that have on the overall rating? All of these assumptions have some degree of compromise, as Mr. C alluded to above.

Further, as with any model that relies on historical observations to predict future outcomes in a multi-variate system, there is a high degree of uncertainty, even if we could somehow generate the "perfect" set of assumptions to create the model. Call this the "any given Saturday" principle. Consider that within the Sagarin system, if two equally rated teams are playing on a neutral field, there is a roughly 1/3 chance that either of the teams would beat the other by more than 14 points. And a roughly 5% chance that either team might win by more than 28 points. A 56 point differential in potential outcomes is pretty huge for two teams that are supposedly "equal." The more data that can be plugged into these systems, the less uncertainty there is, but there will always be variables that are not specifically accounted for in computer models. And in a season of football, there is a finite number of games (i.e. data points) that can be plugged in.

As Mr. C pointed out, Sagarin does have some issues when rating FCS teams. He suggested that one of the biggest flaws is that Sagarin treats all sub-DI teams the same. I am not sure this is as significant as Mr. C is suggesting, but I've never seen any analysis to answer the question. Regardless, there's no doubt that it does have some impact.

Another issue with using any model to rate FCS teams amongst FBS teams is that there are a limited number of cross-divisional match ups each year. Ken Massey is on record somewhere suggesting that there is less accuracy in his system across divisions than within the same division, therefore he does not recommend using his systems to compare across divisions. There's no reason to believe that this is not also an issue with Sagarin. I haven't ever seen any data that suggests the full scope of this shortcoming, but there's no doubt that it has some impact.

All that being said, I still agree that computer models can offer some perspective of value when discussing hypothetical match ups, even across divisions. All I'm saying here is that you'd be wise to take them with a little grain of salt. Ken Massey himself even says so.

[TILIS-BisonFan]

I am fully aware of what both systems offer. I am also aware that no one knows the full model Massey uses except for Massey. I also think it's safe to say these are much more accurate of a long term predictor than anyone's opinion prior. I agree fcs vs fbs due to the limited matchups is less accurate but that is where historical observations come into play to minimize yearly sample size. If only kenpom would do college football

[TILIS-BisonFan]

Every system has flaws except maybe haralabos voulgaris (nba bettor) but I feel much more confident using those as a start to a discussion over "Texas tech would roll because their offense is fcs"

[NoCoDanny]

How are we not last? Must be strength of schedule...

[thebootfitter]

...I also think it's safe to say these are much more accurate of a long term predictor than anyone's opinion prior. I agree fcs vs fbs due to the limited matchups is less accurate but that is where historical observations come into play to minimize yearly sample size....but I feel much more confident using those as a start to a discussion over "Texas tech would roll because their offense is fcs"Sounds like you get it. I'm with ya.

[jacoj21]

After watching and analyzing NDSU probably 1000x more than you, yes, I honestly believe this NDSU squad, on any give Saturday, could hang with every team in the FBS. I honestly believe there would be no blowouts. We may not win, but we wouldn't be "burried" as you so put it.

I told myself I would make it past page three before I chimed in but I just couldn't pass this up any more. NDSU has shown the world they belong at the top because they have literally "burried" every single opponent except for UNI and KSU. There were games (including playoffs) that could have been "name-your-score-and-you-got-it" games. This NDSU squad was far and above the FCS.

The players on this team may not have been 4 or 5 star recruits coming in, but they sure as heck developed into a 4 or 5 star team.

Literally buried? LITERALLY BURIED? xbangx

[Scooter]

It's telling that the perspective on AGS ragarding how well NDSU would or would not do against teams ranked similarly in Sagarin does not mirror the coaches of the FBS teams that NDSU has played the past three years. For some reason I would trust the opinion of the coaches who actually know something about football than the armchair coaches on this board. If NDSU is so far away from teams ranked around 25 just think how fricken bad the rest of the FCS must be. It's OK that you feel the need to bash a school when you really don't have to back it up. Flame away FCS zealots.

Marshal...GSU...APP St....NDSU who is the best? Who gives a rat's butt. Smart people don't debate which one was better, they look at the qualities that made these programs great and incorporate those traits into their team.

Why is NDSU so good? It's easy to explain. If you take the top 6 or seven FCS teams, all of them have talent. Of the talented players there are two types of guys; those who know what they are doing on the field and those who don't and try to make up for it with their ability. NDSU is full of athletes (including back ups) that know where to be and why they need to be there. This gives you a chance in any game. This is what Lou Holtz was saying before (and after) the KSU game and what Bill Snyder was saying after the KSU game. But what do they know, they are only hall of fame type coaches.

[Gil Dobie]

It's telling that the perspective on AGS ragarding how well NDSU would or would not do against teams ranked similarly in Sagarin does not mirror the coaches of the FBS teams that NDSU has played the past three years. For some reason I would trust the opinion of the coaches who actually know something about football than the armchair coaches on this board. If NDSU is so far away from teams ranked around 25 just think how fricken bad the rest of the FCS must be. It's OK that you feel the need to bash a school when you really don't have to back it up. Flame away FCS zealots.

Marshal...GSU...APP St....NDSU who is the best? Who gives a rat's butt. Smart people don't debate which one was better, they look at the qualities that made these programs great and incorporate those traits into their team.

Why is NDSU so good? It's easy to explain. If you take the top 6 or seven FCS teams, all of them have talent. Of the talented players there are two types of guys; those who know what they are doing on the field and those who don't and try to make up for it with their ability. NDSU is full of athletes (including back ups) that know where to be and why they need to be there. This gives you a chance in any game. This is what Lou Holtz was saying before (and after) the KSU game and what Bill Snyder was saying after the KSU game. But what do they know, they are only hall of fame type coaches.

It's the same people on AGS that said Towson had the best O-Line NDSU would face all year and that Towson would be a close game or loss for NDSU. It's mostly coming from East Coast people that have not gotten by their bias or dislike for the Bison, more specifically Bison fans. NDSU would not have won the B1G, but they could have beat most of the teams in the B1G on a 1 game basis. In a full B1G season, the chance of winning all those games goes down due to wear and tear on the depth.

[BisonBacker]

It's telling that the perspective on AGS ragarding how well NDSU would or would not do against teams ranked similarly in Sagarin does not mirror the coaches of the FBS teams that NDSU has played the past three years. For some reason I would trust the opinion of the coaches who actually know something about football than the armchair coaches on this board. If NDSU is so far away from teams ranked around 25 just think how fricken bad the rest of the FCS must be. It's OK that you feel the need to bash a school when you really don't have to back it up. Flame away FCS zealots.

Marshal...GSU...APP St....NDSU who is the best? Who gives a rat's butt. Smart people don't debate which one was better, they look at the qualities that made these programs great and incorporate those traits into their team.

Why is NDSU so good? It's easy to explain. If you take the top 6 or seven FCS teams, all of them have talent. Of the talented players there are two types of guys; those who know what they are doing on the field and those who don't and try to make up for it with their ability. NDSU is full of athletes (including back ups) that know where to be and why they need to be there. This gives you a chance in any game. This is what Lou Holtz was saying before (and after) the KSU game and what Bill Snyder was saying after the KSU game. But what do they know, they are only hall of fame type coaches.


It's the same people on AGS that said Towson had the best O-Line NDSU would face all year and that Towson would be a close game or loss for NDSU. It's mostly coming from East Coast people that have not gotten by their bias or dislike for the Bison, more specifically Bison fans. NDSU would not have won the B1G, but they could have beat most of the teams in the B1G on a 1 game basis. In a full B1G season, the chance of winning all those games goes down due to wear and tear on the depth.


Agree with both of these. I have never been one to say we'd be going undefeated in any of the major conferences and don't think there are any bison fans who believe that. What most bison fans believe is we'd be more than competitive with this last years team where we wouldn't be getting throttled by most of those teams in those conferences. Hell I'd go so far as to say if we had been at that level with the current players and staff given a couple more years of recruiting and more schollies I think the sky would have been the limit.

[Twentysix]

Literally buried? LITERALLY BURIED? xbangx

http://www.picturesof.net/_images_300/Man_Digging_with_a_Shovel_Royalty_Free_Clipart_Pic ture_090213-144144-963042.jpg

;)

[uofmman1122]

Oh god.

I knew new this thread would get amazing, but you guys have really outdone yourselves. xlolx xthumbsupx

[thebootfitter]

Oh god.

I knew new this thread would get amazing, but you guys have really outdone yourselves. xlolx xthumbsupx
Care to elaborate?

[thebootfitter]

...and I think there might be an error in his Dimin_Curve number(the one that puts NDSU at 12). NDSU was in the twenties before the UNH game and I can't believe we could jump up that much in just two games.
...But Dimin_Curve is score-based like Predictor and shouldn't be as high as it is.
Hammersmith -- The numbers haven't been updated at all. Do you still suspect an error? They did beat both UNH and Towson by a pretty high point margin. K-State also beat Michigan by a couple touchdowns over that span. It does seem a bit high to me too, but my guess is that the numbers are valid -- just maybe the circumstances exploit some weakness of the Dimin_Curve formula.