Everyone who has a chance (by records)

[chattanoogamocs]

AUTOBIDS
MVC - North Dakota State 11-0, 8-0 Beat Kansas State *1 Non DI win
CAA - Maine 10-2, 7-1 Beat Massachusetts
OVC - Eastern Illinois 11-1, 8-0 Beat San Diego State
NEC - Sacred Heart 10-2, 4-2 *2 Non DI wins
Big Sky - Eastern Washington 9-2, 7-0 (vs Portland St 6-5, 3-4) Beat #25 Oregon State *1 Non DI win
Pioneer -Butler 9-3, 7-1
Southland - Southeastern Louisiana 10-2, 7-0
MEAC - Bethune-Cookman 10-2, 7-1 *1 Non DI win
SoCon - Furman 7-5, 6-2
Patriot - Lafayette 5-6, 4-1
Big South - Coastal Carolina 10-2, 4-1

11-1 Fordham 11-1, 0-0 Beat Temple
10-2 Towson 10-2, 6-2 Beat Connecticut
9-2 Montana 10-2, 6-2 *1 Non DI win
9-2 Northern Arizona 9-2, 7-1
8-2 McNeese State 9-2, 5-1 (at Lamar 5-6, 2-4) Beat South Florida 53-21 *1 Non DI win
8-3 Tennessee State 9-3, 6-2 *1 Non DI
8-3 South Carolina State 9-3, 7-1 *1 Non DI win
8-3 Jacksonville State 9-3, 5-3 Beat Georgia State 32-26 OT *1 Non DI
8-3 Charleston Southern 10-3, 3-2 *2 Non DI wins
8-3 Lehigh 8-3, 3-2
8-4 Chattanooga 8-4, 6-2 Beat Georgia State 42-14
8-4 Youngstown State 8-4, 5-3
8-4 Samford 8-4, 6-2 Beat Georgia State 31-21
8-4 South Dakota State 8-4, 5-3
7-4 Sam Houston State 8-4, 4-3 *win over Houston Baptist (transitioning)
7-4 Southern Utah 8-4, 5-3 Beat South Alabama *1 Non DI win
7-4 New Hampshire 7-4, 5-2
7-5 William and Mary 7-5, 4-4
7-5 Delaware 7-5, 4-4
7-5 UT Martin 7-5, 5-3
7-5 Northern Iowa 7-5, 3-5 Beat Iowa State

[chattanoogamocs]

I did all this whilst holding my squirming 7-month old son, so if you see in any errors, let me know.

[Fordham]

We beat Temple btw since you mention UCONN and Temple is up 21-0 on UCONN in the 2nd Q as I write this.

good stuff

[Professor Chaos]

The magic number of D1 wins is now 6 so SIU, among others I'm sure, deserves some consideration as well.

[Fordham]

I did all this whilst holding my squirming 7-month old son, so if you see in any errors, let me know.
Well done and congrats (good luck with your sleep!)

[chattanoogamocs]

We beat Temple btw since you mention UCONN and Temple is up 21-0 on UCONN in the 2nd Q as I write this.

good stuff

Fixed...thanks, I had it in an earlier version on Mocfans, but some how it got chopped off at some point.

[smallcollegefbfan]

AUTOBIDS
MVC - North Dakota State 11-0, 8-0 Beat Kansas State *1 Non DI win
CAA - Maine 10-2, 7-1 Beat Massachusetts
OVC - Eastern Illinois 11-1, 8-0 Beat San Diego State
NEC - Sacred Heart 10-2, 4-2 *2 Non DI wins
Big Sky - Eastern Washington 9-2, 7-0 (vs Portland St 6-5, 3-4) Beat #25 Oregon State *1 Non DI win
Pioneer -Butler 9-3, 7-1
Southland - Southeastern Louisiana 10-2, 7-0
MEAC - Bethune-Cookman 10-2, 7-1 *1 Non DI win
SoCon - Furman 7-5, 6-2
Patriot - Lafayette 5-6, 4-1
Big South - Coastal Carolina 10-2, 4-1

11-1 Fordham 11-1, 0-0
10-2 Towson 10-2, 6-2 Beat Connecticut
9-2 Montana 10-2, 6-2 *1 Non DI win
9-2 Northern Arizona 9-2, 7-1
8-2 McNeese State 9-2, 5-1 (at Lamar 5-6, 2-4) Beat South Florida 53-21 *1 Non DI win
8-3 Tennessee State 9-3, 6-2 *1 Non DI
8-3 South Carolina State 9-3, 7-1 *1 Non DI win
8-3 Jacksonville State 9-3, 5-3 Beat Georgia State 32-26 OT *1 Non DI
8-3 Charleston Southern 10-3, 3-2 *2 Non DI wins
8-3 Lehigh 8-3, 3-2
8-4 Chattanooga 8-4, 6-2 Beat Georgia State 42-14
8-4 Youngstown State 8-4, 5-3
8-4 Samford 8-4, 6-2 Beat Georgia State 31-21
8-4 South Dakota State 8-4, 5-3
7-4 Sam Houston State 8-4, 4-3 *win over Houston Baptist (transitioning)
7-4 Southern Utah 8-4, 5-3 Beat South Alabama *1 Non DI win
7-4 New Hampshire 7-4, 5-2
7-5 William and Mary 7-5, 4-4
7-5 Delaware 7-5, 4-4
7-5 UT Martin 7-5, 5-3
7-5 Northern Iowa 7-5, 3-5 (Western Illinois 4-7, 2-5) Beat Iowa State

Okay you can at least eliminate down to just a couple of spots up for grabs. You have 11 of the 24 as autobids. Then you have Fordham, Towson, Montana, NAU, and McNeese State in. That's 8 spots left. I firmly believe Tenn State, SC State, Samford, Jacksonville State, Youngstown State, SDSU, and SHSU are in. That's 7 of the final 8. Then it's down to Lehigh, UTC, SUU, UNH, UTM, W&M, and UNI IMO. Tough call. I would take UNH, UTC, or UTM and of that group UTM beat UTC so I could see the last spot down to UNH or UTM? I don't see an at-large team getting in with a losing record in conference play and that would eliminate all the .500 and below teams in league play down near the bottom.

[chattanoogamocs]

Well done and congrats (good luck with your sleep!)

I am blessed with a good overnight sleeper...but he is cutting his first tooth and has been extra fussy all weekend.

[Sly Fox]

I'm not sure how you can argue that YSU or Sam are locks. UNH would appear to be more of a lock this evening than either of those two schools. And it is tough to push Tennessee-Martin right now as a strong candidate. It is all much hazier than anyone could have guessed when we woke up this morning.

[chattanoogamocs]

The magic number of D1 wins is now 6 so SIU, among others I'm sure, deserves some consideration as well.

I agree that there might be a couple at least for consideration, but I don't realistically think a 6 win team is going to get in (in a 12 games season), with some many already qualified candidates, so I just kept the cut off at 7 wins. :)

[Fordham]

I am blessed with a good overnight sleeper...
That's the kind of feature that suckers one into having another pretty quickly.

God bless

[Engineer86]

Okay you can at least eliminate down to just a couple of spots up for grabs. You have 11 of the 24 as autobids. Then you have Fordham, Towson, Montana, NAU, and McNeese State in. That's 8 spots left. I firmly believe Tenn State, SC State, Samford, Jacksonville State, Youngstown State, SDSU, and SHSU are in. That's 7 of the final 8. Then it's down to Lehigh, UTC, SUU, UNH, UTM, W&M, and UNI IMO. Tough call. I would take UNH, UTC, or UTM and of that group UTM beat UTC so I could see the last spot down to UNH or UTM? I don't see an at-large team getting in with a losing record in conference play and that would eliminate all the .500 and below teams in league play down near the bottom.

Lehigh is definitely not in this discussion.

[chattanoogamocs]

That's the kind of feature that suckers one into having another pretty quickly.

God bless

LOL...I am also 44 years old (and my son was a joyously happy accident), so I consider this is a one shot deal. :)

I never thought my life would be incomplete without a child...but now that I have my son, I couldn't imagine my life without him.

[chattanoogamocs]

Lehigh is definitely not in this discussion.

I agree.

[youwouldno]

UNH is a lock. Samford probably is as well.

Any team with 8 D-I wins and a decent schedule is in good shape, except maybe for Youngstown St. The way they ended the season was just not good, and they only have one particularly solid win, and that was against a non-playoff team (SIU). But I'm not sure who would make it over them.

[clenz]

YSU is likely out with the way the finished the season

[Mr. C]

AUTOBIDS
MVC - North Dakota State 11-0, 8-0 Beat Kansas State *1 Non DI win
CAA - Maine 10-2, 7-1 Beat Massachusetts
OVC - Eastern Illinois 11-1, 8-0 Beat San Diego State
NEC - Sacred Heart 10-2, 4-2 *2 Non DI wins
Big Sky - Eastern Washington 9-2, 7-0 (vs Portland St 6-5, 3-4) Beat #25 Oregon State *1 Non DI win
Pioneer -Butler 9-3, 7-1
Southland - Southeastern Louisiana 10-2, 7-0
MEAC - Bethune-Cookman 10-2, 7-1 *1 Non DI win
SoCon - Furman 7-5, 6-2
Patriot - Lafayette 5-6, 4-1
Big South - Coastal Carolina 10-2, 4-1

11-1 Fordham 11-1, 0-0 Beat Temple
10-2 Towson 10-2, 6-2 Beat Connecticut
9-2 Montana 10-2, 6-2 *1 Non DI win
9-2 Northern Arizona 9-2, 7-1
8-2 McNeese State 9-2, 5-1 (at Lamar 5-6, 2-4) Beat South Florida 53-21 *1 Non DI win
8-3 Tennessee State 9-3, 6-2 *1 Non DI
8-3 South Carolina State 9-3, 7-1 *1 Non DI win
8-3 Jacksonville State 9-3, 5-3 Beat Georgia State 32-26 OT *1 Non DI
8-3 Charleston Southern 10-3, 3-2 *2 Non DI wins
8-3 Lehigh 8-3, 3-2
8-4 Chattanooga 8-4, 6-2 Beat Georgia State 42-14
8-4 Youngstown State 8-4, 5-3
8-4 Samford 8-4, 6-2 Beat Georgia State 31-21
8-4 South Dakota State 8-4, 5-3
7-4 Sam Houston State 8-4, 4-3 *win over Houston Baptist (transitioning)
7-4 Southern Utah 8-4, 5-3 Beat South Alabama *1 Non DI win
7-4 New Hampshire 7-4, 5-2
7-5 William and Mary 7-5, 4-4
7-5 Delaware 7-5, 4-4
7-5 UT Martin 7-5, 5-3
7-5 Northern Iowa 7-5, 3-5 Beat Iowa State
Good work on the list

[lionsrking2]

For the record, UCA is also 7-5 ... they're not getting in, but are still eligible for consideration.

EDIT: check that, only have five D-I wins, so not eligible.

[knucklehead]

Liberty?

[R3TRO]

OP, UNH is 6-2 in the CAA.

[Penguin Nation]

We beat Temple btw since you mention UCONN and Temple is up 21-0 on UCONN in the 2nd Q as I write this.

good stuff

If Temple beats a winless team, and gets its second win of the season, I don't see how that adds much to Fordham's resume.

With a weak SOS, marginal wins over feeble foes, and the loss to 4-6 Lafayette, Fordham seems like a long shot for a seed.

[Fordham]

If Temple beats a winless team, and gets its second win of the season, I don't see how that adds much to Fordham's resume.

With a weak SOS, marginal wins over feeble foes, and the loss to 4-6 Lafayette, Fordham seems like a long shot for a seed.
Dude, the list reflected all FBS wins and our win over Temple was omitted. My post simply pointed that out. It was then added into the list AFTER my post, which is when you're jumping in

[Mr. C]

Okay you can at least eliminate down to just a couple of spots up for grabs. You have 11 of the 24 as autobids. Then you have Fordham, Towson, Montana, NAU, and McNeese State in. That's 8 spots left. I firmly believe Tenn State, SC State, Samford, Jacksonville State, Youngstown State, SDSU, and SHSU are in. That's 7 of the final 8. Then it's down to Lehigh, UTC, SUU, UNH, UTM, W&M, and UNI IMO. Tough call. I would take UNH, UTC, or UTM and of that group UTM beat UTC so I could see the last spot down to UNH or UTM? I don't see an at-large team getting in with a losing record in conference play and that would eliminate all the .500 and below teams in league play down near the bottom.

A five-loss at-large team isn't getting in with a bunch of teams sitting with eight wins. The committee has never given an at-large bid to a five-loss team.

[Mr. C]

If Temple beats a winless team, and gets its second win of the season, I don't see how that adds much to Fordham's resume.

With a weak SOS, marginal wins over feeble foes, and the loss to 4-6 Lafayette, Fordham seems like a long shot for a seed.
I've seen Fordham twice in person and was just at YSU last weekend. Trust me, you wouldn't want any part of Fordham right now.

[chattanoogamocs]

Liberty?

I didn't have them on the list because they only had 6 DI wins

Nice win today though, you guys took CSU to the woodshed.

[Tealblood]

But you include SHSU who also has 6 wins

[Penguin Nation]

I've seen Fordham twice in person and was just at YSU last weekend. Trust me, you wouldn't want any part of Fordham right now.

I'm not saying Fordham is bad. I'm just saying when you beat Holy Cross (3-9) and Bucknell by a combined 4 points, than it would seem unfair to make Fordham a seed over a second place CAA, Sky, or MVFC team.

[Mr. C]

I'm not saying Fordham is bad. I'm just saying when you beat Holy Cross (3-9) and Bucknell by a combined 4 points, than it would seem unfair to make Fordham a seed over a second place CAA, Sky, or MVFC team.
Bucknell was a different team later in the season when Fordham struggled with the Bison. Bucknell had a key player come back that was injured early when the Bison lost most of their games. Everyone has ups and downs in a season.

[Mr. C]

I'm not saying Fordham is bad. I'm just saying when you beat Holy Cross (3-9) and Bucknell by a combined 4 points, than it would seem unfair to make Fordham a seed over a second place CAA, Sky, or MVFC team.
From what I've seen, Fordham could with the right draw make it as far as the semifinals. The Rams are as talented as anyone in the country on offense. Fordham, if it could get an early lead, might even be a difficult matchup for NDSU.

[youwouldno]

Fordham does have a good offense, but their defense is average at best, and most likely below average. They have a low margin of error and are not a good bet for a deep run.

[UNH Fanboi]

Fordham is in because of the win over an FBS and Nova, end of discussion.

[dwtime]

But you include SHSU who also has 6 wins

SHSU should be out of consideration imo.

[dwtime]

Fordham is in because of the win over an FBS and Nova, end of discussion.

Agreed

[IBleedYellow]

Sam Houston shouldn't be in the conversation.

Sent from my XT1053 using Tapatalk

[dwtime]

Fordham does have a good offense, but their defense is average at best, and most likely below average. They have a low margin of error and are not a good bet for a deep run.

Well with a 24 team tournament most teams fall into that catagory. Doesn't mean Fordham shouldn't be in.

[youwouldno]

Well with a 24 team tournament most teams fall into that catagory. Doesn't mean Fordham shouldn't be in.

Clearly they should be in, didn't mean to imply otherwise. They will get a seed too, though I don't necessarily agree with that part.

[dwtime]

Clearly they should be in, didn't mean to imply otherwise. They will get a seed too, though I don't necessarily agree with that part.

Got it.

[Mr. C]

Fordham does have a good offense, but their defense is average at best, and most likely below average. They have a low margin of error and are not a good bet for a deep run.
You might be surprised. If Nebrich is healthy, the Rams can beat anyone in the field. Have you seen Fordham in person?

[Bisonwinagn]

This is who I would select:

11-1 Fordham 11-1, 0-0 Beat Temple
10-2 Towson 10-2, 6-2 Beat Connecticut
9-2 Montana 10-2, 6-2 *1 Non DI win
9-2 Northern Arizona 9-2, 7-1
8-2 McNeese State 9-2, 5-1 (at Lamar 5-6, 2-4) Beat South Florida 53-21 *1 Non DI win
8-3 Tennessee State 9-3, 6-2 *1 Non DI
8-3 South Carolina State 9-3, 7-1 *1 Non DI win
8-3 Jacksonville State 9-3, 5-3 Beat Georgia State 32-26 OT *1 Non DI
8-3 Charleston Southern 10-3, 3-2 *2 Non DI wins
8-3 Lehigh 8-3, 3-2
8-4 Chattanooga 8-4, 6-2 Beat Georgia State 42-14
8-4 Youngstown State 8-4, 5-3
8-4 Samford 8-4, 6-2 Beat Georgia State 31-21
8-4 South Dakota State 8-4, 5-3
7-4 Sam Houston State 8-4, 4-3 *win over Houston Baptist (transitioning)
7-4 Southern Utah 8-4, 5-3 Beat South Alabama *1 Non DI win
7-4 New Hampshire 7-4, 5-2
7-5 William and Mary 7-5, 4-4
7-5 Delaware 7-5, 4-4
7-5 UT Martin 7-5, 5-3
7-5 Northern Iowa 7-5, 3-5 Beat Iowa State

[clenz]

SHSU is 6-4 in D1 games, FWIW

[Mr. C]

This is who I would select:

11-1 Fordham 11-1, 0-0 Beat Temple
10-2 Towson 10-2, 6-2 Beat Connecticut
9-2 Montana 10-2, 6-2 *1 Non DI win
9-2 Northern Arizona 9-2, 7-1
8-2 McNeese State 9-2, 5-1 (at Lamar 5-6, 2-4) Beat South Florida 53-21 *1 Non DI win
8-3 Tennessee State 9-3, 6-2 *1 Non DI
8-3 South Carolina State 9-3, 7-1 *1 Non DI win
8-3 Jacksonville State 9-3, 5-3 Beat Georgia State 32-26 OT *1 Non DI
8-3 Charleston Southern 10-3, 3-2 *2 Non DI wins
8-3 Lehigh 8-3, 3-2
8-4 Chattanooga 8-4, 6-2 Beat Georgia State 42-14
8-4 Youngstown State 8-4, 5-3
8-4 Samford 8-4, 6-2 Beat Georgia State 31-21
8-4 South Dakota State 8-4, 5-3
7-4 Sam Houston State 8-4, 4-3 *win over Houston Baptist (transitioning)
7-4 Southern Utah 8-4, 5-3 Beat South Alabama *1 Non DI win
7-4 New Hampshire 7-4, 5-2
7-5 William and Mary 7-5, 4-4
7-5 Delaware 7-5, 4-4
7-5 UT Martin 7-5, 5-3
7-5 Northern Iowa 7-5, 3-5 Beat Iowa State
You would include four five-loss teams when none has ever been selected as an at-large before? Too many cans of worms. Villanova at 6-5 would stand a much better chance for a deep tournament run than either William & Mary, or Delaware, both of whom the Wildcats beat. One of many problems with including five-loss teams. At some point, you have to win some games.

[Bisonwinagn]

SHSU is 6-4 in D1 games, FWIW

Do you have support showing transitioning teams don't count? If so then I may drop SAM.

[clenz]

Do you have support showing transitioning teams don't count? If so then I may drop SAM.
Texas Terror posted a long breakdown in another thread as to why they don't count

HBU, UIW, and AC don't count as D1 this year

[Bisonwinagn]

You would include four five-loss teams when none has ever been selected as an at-large before? Too many cans of worms. Villanova at 6-5 would stand a much better chance for a deep tournament run than either William & Mary, or Delaware, both of whom the Wildcats beat. One of many problems with including five-loss teams. At some point, you have to win some games.

Umm those teams are all out. Only the Bold teams are selected.

[youwouldno]

You might be surprised. If Nebrich is healthy, the Rams can beat anyone in the field. Have you seen Fordham in person?

I haven't seen them in person. Maybe I am underestimating them. As it is, while I recognize they are dangerous, I just think they are going to get into shootouts that could go either way, and it's hard to win several of those in a row.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Temple blew a 21-0 halftime lead to Uconn! A TU win will only help Fordham!!

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

...and Temple just lost to UConn, sorry Rams xsmhx