How many teams have a shot at a seed?

[TypicalTribe]

It seems to me there are five relative locks for seeds:

NDSU
EIU
EWU
Maine
SELA

The other three right now would seem to be:

Towson
McNeese
Montana

The question is, if any or all of those teams lose, which teams are waiting to possibly steal a seed on the final Saturday? It doesn't strike me as a very big list. Clearly, no team from the Big South, NEC, Pioneer, SoCon, CAA or OVC would seem to have a shot. Here's the slim pickings of a pecking order as far as I can see:

Northern Arizona - would have wins over Montana and SUU and only 1 FCS loss. Best candidate to grab a seed
Youngstown - Couple of late losses have hurt but win over good SDSU team would mean solo 2nd in MVFC
Fordham - 11-1 would look good to the committee, but the Lafayette loss and near-loss to Bucknell don't resonate well
BCC - Would probably put a lot of people in the seats for a playoff game, but loss to Norfolk State tough to get past
SHSU - We know this team is good, but Incarnate Word, Texas Southern and Houston Baptist tough to stomach for a seed

Are there other teams that might be considered? It seems pretty thin right now.

[Bison56]

Im going with 8 teams getting a seed. :)

[Southern Bison]

If Fordham and Coastal Carolina hadn't slipped up, I would've expected to see them given a seed for being undefeated...oh well, AGS

TT, I think you're spot on for the seeded teams barring any losses by those 8 this weekend.

[robsnotes4u]

At this point if the BSC was given a second seed it would NAU not Montana if the both win. NAU wins in head to head, a full division 1 schedule, and a 5game win streak. IMO


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[Grizzlies82]

At this point if the BSC was given a second seed it would NAU not Montana if the both win. NAU wins in head to head, a full division 1 schedule, and a 5game win streak. IMO

Rob you may be right but I'd still bet if either get a seed it is Montana. NAU holds an advantage due to their head to head win in Flagstaff. However if each wins on Saturday, MT would have just defeated a ranked MSU who spanked NAU in a very lopsided game. Overall MT will have played a full 12 game schedule to NAU's 11 games. MT will have 10 wins to NAU's 9 (with equal # of DI wins, and equal # of losses). MT would have a 4 game win streak compared to NAU's 5. Plus NAU did not have to play E. Washington this year while Montana did. Similarly, per all the charts I've seen Montana apparently has a far stronger ranking on Strength of Schedule. Finally seeding is not based on the polls, but they do factor in and MT is higher in every one of them. So in other words, even with their Sept. win it is far from automatic that a NAU (9-2) is seeded over a Montana (10-2). Either way won't surprise me, but I'd suspect it all balances out so that Montana gets the nod.

[robsnotes4u]

Rob you may be right but I'd still bet if either get a seed it is Montana. NAU holds an advantage due to their head to head win in Flagstaff. However if each wins on Saturday, MT would have just defeated a ranked MSU who spanked NAU in a very lopsided game. Overall MT will have played a full 12 game schedule to NAU's 11 games. MT will have 10 wins to NAU's 9 (with equal # of DI wins, and equal # of losses). MT would have a 4 game win streak compared to NAU's 5. Plus NAU did not have to play E. Washington this year while Montana did. Similarly, per all the charts I've seen Montana apparently has a far stronger ranking on Strength of Schedule. Finally seeding is not based on the polls, but they do factor in and MT is higher in every one of them. So in other words, even with their Sept. win it is far from automatic that a NAU (9-2) is seeded over a Montana (10-2). Either way won't surprise me, but I'd suspect it all balances out so that Montana gets the nod.

Who knows what goes through all the heads of the committee when they pick, will find out Sunday. Good luck.




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[rokamortis]

It seems to me there are five relative locks for seeds:

NDSU
EIU
EWU
Maine
SELA

The other three right now would seem to be:

Towson
McNeese
Montana

The question is, if any or all of those teams lose, which teams are waiting to possibly steal a seed on the final Saturday? It doesn't strike me as a very big list. Clearly, no team from the Big South, NEC, Pioneer, SoCon, CAA or OVC would seem to have a shot. Here's the slim pickings of a pecking order as far as I can see:

Northern Arizona - would have wins over Montana and SUU and only 1 FCS loss. Best candidate to grab a seed
Youngstown - Couple of late losses have hurt but win over good SDSU team would mean solo 2nd in MVFC
Fordham - 11-1 would look good to the committee, but the Lafayette loss and near-loss to Bucknell don't resonate well
BCC - Would probably put a lot of people in the seats for a playoff game, but loss to Norfolk State tough to get past
SHSU - We know this team is good, but Incarnate Word, Texas Southern and Houston Baptist tough to stomach for a seed

Are there other teams that might be considered? It seems pretty thin right now.

Why wouldn't Coastal be in the mix with a 10-2 record and a complete DI schedule? I think Coastal's resume is better than some you listed. I think 10 DI wins is what gets us in the conversation, but being selected for a seed will still be difficult. No real sexy wins but only losses to a top 20 FCS and to #11 SEC South Carolina. I wonder if Coastal being the best team (highest ranked in the polls and computer rankings) in the south region helps our cause, I have a purely speculative theory that the committee will (intentionally or not) seed a team from each of the regions they have setup with advisory committees. Coastal would have a much better resume than Bethune-Cookman.

[TigerFen]

I think your forgetting Coastal Carolina at 10 wins possibly getting a seed. If either of the three lower seed possibilities (Towson, McNeese State or Montana) Fall, then Coastal Carolina gets a look at this. Both Towson and Montana could lose their chance at a seed this week with losses. I think Coastal Carolina with 10 wins gets a seed possibly over a Towson even if Towson wins.

[van]

I think your forgetting Coastal Carolina at 10 wins possibly getting a seed. If either of the three lower seed possibilities (Towson, McNeese State or Montana) Fall, then Coastal Carolina gets a look at this. Both Towson and Montana could lose their chance at a seed this week with losses. I think Coastal Carolina with 10 wins gets a seed possibly over a Towson even if Towson wins.

Heck, Lehigh did not even get in with 10 wins last year. Who knows what the committee's bias is.

[TypicalTribe]

I think your forgetting Coastal Carolina at 10 wins possibly getting a seed. If either of the three lower seed possibilities (Towson, McNeese State or Montana) Fall, then Coastal Carolina gets a look at this. Both Towson and Montana could lose their chance at a seed this week with losses. I think Coastal Carolina with 10 wins gets a seed possibly over a Towson even if Towson wins.

How would Coastal possibly get a seed ahead of Towson if both finish with 10 wins?

[gotts]

How would Coastal possibly get a seed ahead of Towson if both finish with 10 wins?


Agree, although I have PCB (power conference bias).

[dbackjon]

Rob you may be right but I'd still bet if either get a seed it is Montana. NAU holds an advantage due to their head to head win in Flagstaff. However if each wins on Saturday, MT would have just defeated a ranked MSU who spanked NAU in a very lopsided game. Overall MT will have played a full 12 game schedule to NAU's 11 games. MT will have 10 wins to NAU's 9 (with equal # of DI wins, and equal # of losses). MT would have a 4 game win streak compared to NAU's 5. Plus NAU did not have to play E. Washington this year while Montana did. Similarly, per all the charts I've seen Montana apparently has a far stronger ranking on Strength of Schedule. Finally seeding is not based on the polls, but they do factor in and MT is higher in every one of them. So in other words, even with their Sept. win it is far from automatic that a NAU (9-2) is seeded over a Montana (10-2). Either way won't surprise me, but I'd suspect it all balances out so that Montana gets the nod.


If both win out, and Montana gets the seed, then that is proof that on-the-field means nothing, only $$$

[Twentysix]

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