Hypothetical MVFC Playoff Scenario

[Mr. Tibbs]

Right now, the only teams in the MVFC in the playoff hunt outside of NDSU and YSU are SDSU, SIU, and ILL ST. The Redbirds have to make a trip up to Fargo, and unless something miraculous happens, they will likely lose and take themselves out of playoff contention with 5 losses. Here's the question: If SDSU and SIU both win out (tall order for SDSU, but do-able), who gets in the field? SIU would have the head to head, but SDSU would have one more DI win than SIU. SIU would have beaten Indiana St, Missouri State, and Illinois St to be 8-4 (7-4 DI and 6-2 in Conf.) SDSU would have beaten Indiana St, USD, and Youngstown to be 8-4 (8-4 DI and 5-3 in conf.) Who gets the nod. Both? Neither?

[JMUNJ08]

Easy - SDSU based on YSU win and extra D1 win. SIU early W's are not as impressive now

[Professor Chaos]

I'd think both of them are in with that scenario but if I had to choose one I'd give the nod to SIU. Better conference record and head to head win (in Brookings).

[KUlawJack]

I'd think both of them are in with that scenario but if I had to choose one I'd give the nod to SIU. Better conference record and head to head win (in Brookings).

That win over SELA looking better and better for the Jacks. Tons of heavy lifting to do before we can even discuss this though. The loss to MSU is what is really screwing our chances.

[Mr. Tibbs]

What is the chance that both get left out? Perhaps a CAA or a fifth Big Sky (Sac St?) steals the third MVFC bid. It's looking like the Big Sky will get Montana, Montana St., EWA, and NAU, at the very least.

[Nova09]

Both. Look how mediocre the bottom at-larges would be in the current rankings. We're seriously talking a 3 loss OVC team making the field.

[MSUDuo]

How about NDSU and YSU losses out and MSU wins out?

:eek::eek::eek:

[Lehigh Football Nation]

What is the chance that both get left out? Perhaps a CAA or a fifth Big Sky (Sac St?) steals the third MVFC bid. It's looking like the Big Sky will get Montana, Montana St., EWA, and NAU, at the very least.

In the Big Sky the only other two teams that can even get to the magic 7 D-I win level is Southern Utah and Portland State, and if they were to somehow make it SUU would have to beat Montana State and Northern Arizona, or Portland State would have to beat Eastern Washington. I ain't holding my breath.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

Right now, the only teams in the MVFC in the playoff hunt outside of NDSU and YSU are SDSU, SIU, and ILL ST. The Redbirds have to make a trip up to Fargo, and unless something miraculous happens, they will likely lose and take themselves out of playoff contention with 5 losses. Here's the question: If SDSU and SIU both win out (tall order for SDSU, but do-able), who gets in the field? SIU would have the head to head, but SDSU would have one more DI win than SIU. SIU would have beaten Indiana St, Missouri State, and Illinois St to be 8-4 (7-4 DI and 6-2 in Conf.) SDSU would have beaten Indiana St, USD, and Youngstown to be 8-4 (8-4 DI and 5-3 in conf.) Who gets the nod. Both? Neither?

I think a lot will depend on how other conferences finish out. An SIU team with only 7 DI wins may end up being left home if there are enough 8 D1 win power conference teams left at the top.

Look at it this way: 24 spots, with 11 autobids leaves 13 open spots.

Fordham seems to be a lock at this point, so that's one at large gone for 12 left. Figure that the Big Sky, MVC, Southland, and CAA are going to get at minimum two at large spots in addition to their autobids, and you're left with 4 spots left. The SoCon and OVC are going to get at least one extra at large bid each, so that leaves two spots open.

Given that, the field is going to be pretty crowded with quality teams, and 7 D1 wins in a 12 game schedule might not be enough.

[Grizalltheway]

What is the chance that both get left out? Perhaps a CAA or a fifth Big Sky (Sac St?) steals the third MVFC bid. It's looking like the Big Sky will get Montana, Montana St., EWA, and NAU, at the very least.

I'd be very, very surprised if the Big Sky got 5 teams.

[F'N Hawks]

The Big Sky is getting four, that is a lock. Southern Utah is the wild card. When they beat Weber State this weekend they will have 7 wins, including an FBS win over South Alabama, who has turned out to be an OK team. Then, if they beat MSU or NAU they are a 100% lock.

[Professor Chaos]

How about NDSU and YSU losses out and MSU wins out?

:eek::eek::eek:
NDSU and YSU play each other so the best MSU can hope for is a share. That being said I'm sure there's some obscure scenarios where MSU could still get the autobid.

[Houndawg]

Easy - SDSU based on YSU win and extra D1 win. SIU early W's are not as impressive now

The homer argument: Those early wins were good wins at the time, over Top 5 and Top 10 teams on the road, and if SDSU wins out then SIUs head to head looks even better.. SIU's three FCS losses come to teams with a combined record of 25-2 and two of them were very close.

[frozennorth]

Right now, the only teams in the MVFC in the playoff hunt outside of NDSU and YSU are SDSU, SIU, and ILL ST. The Redbirds have to make a trip up to Fargo, and unless something miraculous happens, they will likely lose and take themselves out of playoff contention with 5 losses. Here's the question: If SDSU and SIU both win out (tall order for SDSU, but do-able), who gets in the field? SIU would have the head to head, but SDSU would have one more DI win than SIU. SIU would have beaten Indiana St, Missouri State, and Illinois St to be 8-4 (7-4 DI and 6-2 in Conf.) SDSU would have beaten Indiana St, USD, and Youngstown to be 8-4 (8-4 DI and 5-3 in conf.) Who gets the nod. Both? Neither?
any 8-4 valley team will be in imo

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I'm not so confident about Montana at this point. We lose to USD we have to beat MSU to get in if you ask me. We lose 2 or our last 3 and we probably are not in.

[Twentysix]

Illinois State is one of the few teams in the country that will be in heavy consideration with 7 wins, they only play an 11 game schedule and will be 6-2 (likely 3rd place, possibly tying with NDSU or YSU for 2nd) in the MVFC if they can pull it off.

Most of the 8-4 teams will need a slice of luck to go with their record. There are tons of teams that can win 9+ DI games this year that still remain.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Illinois State is one of the few teams in the country that will be in heavy consideration with 7 wins, they only play an 11 game schedule and will be 6-2 (likely 3rd place, possibly tying with NDSU or YSU for 2nd) in the MVFC if they can pull it off.

Most of the 8-4 teams will need a slice of luck to go with their record. There are tons of teams that can win 9+ DI games this year that still remain.

SIU could be 6-2 in the MVFC in the 8 win, 7 D-I win club if they run the table.

[Grizzlies82]

The Big Sky is getting four, that is a lock. Southern Utah is the wild card. When they beat Weber State this weekend they will have 7 wins, including an FBS win over South Alabama, who has turned out to be an OK team. Then, if they beat MSU or NAU they are a 100% lock.

Wouldn't say the Big Sky is "a lock" for four just yet. It is probable but most have three remaining games, and each already has two losses.
Montana State must still face EWU, So Utah, and MT. If they lost all they'd have 5 losses and are probably out.
Eastern WA still faces MSU, Cal Poly, and Portland St. If they lost all they'd also have 5 losses and are probably out.
Montana still faces So. Dakota, Weber, and MT State. If they lost all they'd have 5 losses and are certainly out.
Northern Arizona has the easiest path with only two games left; 1-8 No. Colorado & So. Utah. Yet even one loss to So. Utah leaves them at just 8-3 and wondering.

No, I don't expect these teams to lose all their final games. Yet each has two losses. A third loss won't keep them out but a fourth loss certainly might. Because of head to head games; either EWU or MSU is guaranteed one more loss, then either MSU or MT is guaranteed one more loss from their game. Several of the other remaining games can't be considered automatic (So. Utah, So. Dakota, Cal Poly, Portland). So nobody can be comfortable just yet. They need to win their other games, then these four are in even after beating up on each other.

If Southern Utah does win out, rather than being a certainty, they are still on the cusp of consideration with four losses. However, their success would likely doom MSU (who probably picks up at least one other loss in EWU or MT), and So. Utah would make Northern Arizona sweat it out if they would get a playoff nod. It is shaping up to be an interesting finish this year.

[LeeshaJo]

Know what I have taken from this season (and my keen insight is going to WOW you xsmiley_wix)

1. There are very few teams you expect to see win every weekend. I would put the number at two - NDSU and Eastern Ill.
2. There is a group of about 5 teams that should win every week but they are beatable (EWU, MSU, Maine, CCC, YSU)
3. There is a group of about 5-10 teams that their records are better than their teams based on weak schedules.
4. There is a group of about 10-15 teams that are very good, but prone to walking off the field with unexplainable losses, probably better talent than the group ahead of them, but not proving it on the field.

So there are about 32 teams fighting for the 24 spots...

I will admit I am more familiar with the MVFC and Big Sky teams just based on where I live, therefor tend to fight a bit of bias about how things should play out. But I am going to say there are going to be 5-6 teams sitting home that would be able to run the table or close to it in other conferences. The way I feel this season is shaking out, the big three (Big Sky, MVFC, CAA) are beating each other up so much it is going to open the doors for other conferences to steal the extra at large bids.

right or wrong, to many teams left to many question marks on the field to be selected.

Take SDSU for example, I am and always will be a huge Jacks fan, but even if we win out the final three, I could see us sitting home, due to the MSU loss.

[SDSUAlum08]

Know what I have taken from this season (and my keen insight is going to WOW you xsmiley_wix)

1. There are very few teams you expect to see win every weekend. I would put the number at two - NDSU and Eastern Ill.
2. There is a group of about 5 teams that should win every week but they are beatable (EWU, MSU, Maine, CCC, YSU)
3. There is a group of about 5-10 teams that their records are better than their teams based on weak schedules.
4. There is a group of about 10-15 teams that are very good, but prone to walking off the field with unexplainable losses, probably better talent than the group ahead of them, but not proving it on the field.

So there are about 32 teams fighting for the 24 spots...

I will admit I am more familiar with the MVFC and Big Sky teams just based on where I live, therefor tend to fight a bit of bias about how things should play out. But I am going to say there are going to be 5-6 teams sitting home that would be able to run the table or close to it in other conferences. The way I feel this season is shaking out, the big three (Big Sky, MVFC, CAA) are beating each other up so much it is going to open the doors for other conferences to steal the extra at large bids.

right or wrong, to many teams left to many question marks on the field to be selected.

Take SDSU for example, I am and always will be a huge Jacks fan, but even if we win out the final three, I could see us sitting home, due to the MSU loss.



Heres my SDSU take over on the Jackrabbit Board:

State needs a lot of help to get in but winning out will put them right on the bubble.


Here are the five teams still with playoff hopes and who they have yet to play.


North Dakota State (8-0, 5-0): ISU-Red, @YSU, USD
Youngstown State (8-1, 5-0): @UNI, NDSU, SDSU
Southern Illinois (5-4, 3-2): MSU, ISU-Red, ISU-Blue
Illinois State (5-4, 4-2): @NDSU, @SIU
South Dakota State (5-4, 2-3): ISU-Blue, @USD, @YSU




NDSU and Youngstown are in. The final spot comes down to SIU, ISU-Red, and State. MVFC could get four spots but traditionally there are three teams that make it.




What State needs:


NDSU needs to beat Illinois State this weekend. This is likely but the Bison tend to drop a game at home to a lesser opponent every year. I still don't think Illinois State gets in with only 7 wins, but a win over NDSU and a potential 6-2 record in conference puts them on the bubble. Illinois State also has a win over Abilene Christian University. They're new to D1 and I'm not sure they're a D1 counter yet.


Southern Illinois has two tough games coming up but they're both winnable and both at home. Losing to Missouri State this week or Illinois State the next puts them out of the playoffs. SIU also has a lower level win.


State needs to win out. They'll likely see a win this week but @USD and @YSU will prove very difficult.

[Twentysix]

Heres my SDSU take over on the Jackrabbit Board:

State needs a lot of help to get in but winning out will put them right on the bubble.


Here are the five teams still with playoff hopes and who they have yet to play.


North Dakota State (8-0, 5-0): ISU-Red, @YSU, USD
Youngstown State (8-1, 5-0): @UNI, NDSU, SDSU
Southern Illinois (5-4, 3-2): MSU, ISU-Red, ISU-Blue
Illinois State (5-4, 4-2): @NDSU, @SIU
South Dakota State (5-4, 2-3): ISU-Blue, @USD, @YSU




NDSU and Youngstown are in. The final spot comes down to SIU, ISU-Red, and State. MVFC could get four spots but traditionally there are three teams that make it.




What State needs:


NDSU needs to beat Illinois State this weekend. This is likely but the Bison tend to drop a game at home to a lesser opponent every year. I still don't think Illinois State gets in with only 7 wins, but a win over NDSU and a potential 6-2 record in conference puts them on the bubble. Illinois State also has a win over Abilene Christian University. They're new to D1 and I'm not sure they're a D1 counter yet.


Southern Illinois has two tough games coming up but they're both winnable and both at home. Losing to Missouri State this week or Illinois State the next puts them out of the playoffs. SIU also has a lower level win.


State needs to win out. They'll likely see a win this week but @USD and @YSU will prove very difficult.


Pretty sure Illinois State is out no matter how its sliced.

They only play 11 games this season and one was D2. They can only attain 6 DI wins in a season where most teams played 12 games.. Their 6DI wins and 4 losses are going to be against a slew of teams with 8 DI wins and 4 losses.

I hadn't realized one of their games was a first year squad.

[GAGA]

At least this season there are a couple teams that can give North Dakota a run for there money.

[Twentysix]

At least this season there are a couple teams that can give North Dakota a run for there money.

Like Idaho State?

[GAGA]

Like Idaho State?

Teams that can throw the ball so yeah like Idaho State, if North Dakota gets behind they wont be able to play ketchup.

[Professor Chaos]

Teams that can throw the ball so yeah like Idaho State, if North Dakota gets behind they wont be able to play ketchup.
Problem is they usually are behind. But I guess that's why they're 2-7. Point taken.

Good luck to your boys against EWU this weekend.

[skinny_uncle]

At least this season there are a couple teams that can give North Dakota a run for there money.

I find a matchup with the Bison and EIU intriguing. Not sure who you have in mind.

[Twentysix]

I find a matchup with the Bison and EIU intriguing. Not sure who you have in mind.

North Dakota vs Illinois, innit?

[skinny_uncle]

North Dakota vs Illinois, innit?

The grind the clock running game of the Bison against the hurry-up passing offense of the Panthers.

[thebootfitter]

North Dakota vs Illinois, innit?
I don't think anyone is pickin' up what yer puttin' down...

Now... North Dakota STATE vs Eastern Illinois is a match up I'd sure like to see.

[ming01]

Pretty sure Illinois State is out no matter how its sliced.

They only play 11 games this season and one was D2. They can only attain 6 DI wins in a season where most teams played 12 games.. Their 6DI wins and 4 losses are going to be against a slew of teams with 8 DI wins and 4 losses.

I hadn't realized one of their games was a first year squad.

one D2 win counts toward eligibility now. but im sure other teams would get the nod over them who have all DI wins

[MplsBison]

Since UNI screwed it up by losing to IL St, this is now what I would like to see happen:

NDSU - in
YSU loses to NDSU and SDSU, beats UNI - in
SDSU wins out - in
SIU wins out - in

That's the best we can hope for. Any 8-4 MVFC team is automatically in.

[Grizzlies82]

Since UNI screwed it up by losing to IL St, this is now what I would like to see happen:

NDSU - in
YSU loses to NDSU and SDSU, beats UNI - in
SDSU wins out - in
SIU wins out - in

That's the best we can hope for. Any 8-4 MVFC team is automatically in.

I don't think ANY 8-4 team from any conference is automatically in this year. The teams you listed would all have a very good shot. Just not automatic until it's known how many other 8-4 and/or 9-3 teams are out there at the end.