CAA Playoff Picture - Week 10

[BlueHenSinfonian]

Going into the home stretch, this is how I see it:

Almost Certainly In:

Maine (8-1, 5-0 CAA) - Remaining games: @Albany, vs Rhody, @UNH - Maine is in full control of their destiny now, and with wins over 2 of the last 3 is a lock for CAA champion. They're already likely in with 8 D1 wins, but the easiest remaining conference schedule in the league bodes well for them to lock up the autobid as well.

Towson (8-2, 4-2 CAA) - Remaining games: @William & Mary, vs JMU - Towson has stumbled a couple of times lately with losses to Villanova and Delaware, but already has the requisite 8 D1 wins for a 12 game season, including a signature win @UConn. Their remaining games are both going to be challenges as both William & Mary and JMU have been on an upswing. A win over either makes this a mortal lock, but even if they drop both they're likely in.

In a good position:

Delaware (7-2, 4-1 CAA) - Remaining games: vs William & Mary, vs Richmond, vs Villanova (neutral site) - Delaware is in better shape at 7-2 than they've been in modern history, since dumping the West Chester D2 game for a playoff-counter Jacksonville in week 1. Sitting at 7 D1 wins Delaware likely needs at least one more, but being able to play host to William & Mary and Richmond plays in their favor. Going 2 for 3 out of the remaining schedule would seal the deal and with Richmond struggling and Villanova in freefall, it's certainly possible.

Still in the hunt:

William & Mary (6-3, 3-2 CAA) - Remaining games: @Delaware, vs Towson, @Richmond - Sitting at 6 D1 wins the Tribe have their work cut out for them, but still have a shot. Tough games @ Delaware and vs Towson loom on the horizon, with the final regular season rivalry game against Richmond to cap things off. The Tribe likely go into Delaware about even, underdogs against the Tigers, and the favorites vs. Richmond. Realistically speaking, W&M needs at least two wins in this group, and with the head to head vs. JMU can likely clinch a playoff berth.

James Madison (6-3, 3-2 CAA) - Remaining games: @UNH, vs Stony Brook, @Towson - James Madison is in the same position as William and Mary in many ways. They're facing two tough road games (Durham in November is always a tough place to play for southern teams) with a game they should win against SBU. Realistically speaking, JMU needs at least 2 of these to go up to 8 D1 wins and have a good shot, but may need all 3 if William & Mary goes 8-4. I don't see a 5th CAA team making the field given what's going on in the rest of the league, and with the head to head loss against William and Mary, JMU will need a better record to slip past the Tribe.

Slim chance:

New Hampshire (4-4, 3-2 CAA) - Remaining games: vs JMU, @ Albany, vs Maine - New Hampshire faces their final weeks with only 4 D1 wins under their belts and a chance to only get three more. It plays in their favor that they get home field for two very tough games against JMU and Maine, but even if they win out their future may depend on what happens in the rest of the league.

Out of consideration (can no longer reach 7 D1 wins):
Villanova
Richmond
Albany
Stony Brook
Rhody

[HailSzczur]

I would love nothing more than to play spoiler on the final week of the season. If we're not making the playoffs, UDel is coming down with us. :D

[BlueHenSinfonian]

I would love nothing more than to play spoiler on the final week of the season. If we're not making the playoffs, UDel is coming down with us. :D

Heh, we just need to take care of business with W&M and Richmond so that y'all don't have to worry about that.

[93henfan]

A win over W&M would be Delaware's third over a ranked opponent and 8th D-I win. Nova would be a moot blip on the schedule at that point, and we could weigh our options regarding rather or not to bus our team into the projects in Chester. xsmiley_wix

[melloware13]

Either way, it might make sense to stock up on one of these for the game in Chester
http://armorcorr.com/images/bullet_proof_vest.jpg

[jmufan999]

very good post. i didn't notice this until you posted the link in the CCU thread.

in addition to what you posted, JMU could get in by Towson losing to W&M and JMU (it's possible) and JMU also beating either UNH or SB. Both would be 8-4 (at least, in JMU's case). JMU wouldn't necessarily be in, but they'd be ahead of Towson. JMU wouldn't have any quality wins other than beating Towson, however. just saying they'd move up on the "ladder" in front of Towson.

i also don't think any 9-3 CAA team will be left at home. i seem to be the only person that thinks 5 CAA teams is a possibility. not probable, but possible.

[Tribal]

The PL expected two of their teams to make it but Lehigh is no guarantee at this point. The SoCon is bleeding so they may only get three bids (Chatty, Samford and Wofford?). This helps a very strong CAA.

[dwtime]

Going into the home stretch, this is how I see it:

Almost Certainly In:

Maine (8-1, 5-0 CAA) - Remaining games: @Albany, vs Rhody, @UNH - Maine is in full control of their destiny now, and with wins over 2 of the last 3 is a lock for CAA champion. They're already likely in with 8 D1 wins, but the easiest remaining conference schedule in the league bodes well for them to lock up the autobid as well.

Towson (8-2, 4-2 CAA) - Remaining games: @William & Mary, vs JMU - Towson has stumbled a couple of times lately with losses to Villanova and Delaware, but already has the requisite 8 D1 wins for a 12 game season, including a signature win @UConn. Their remaining games are both going to be challenges as both William & Mary and JMU have been on an upswing. A win over either makes this a mortal lock, but even if they drop both they're likely in.

In a good position:

Delaware (7-2, 4-1 CAA) - Remaining games: vs William & Mary, vs Richmond, vs Villanova (neutral site) - Delaware is in better shape at 7-2 than they've been in modern history, since dumping the West Chester D2 game for a playoff-counter Jacksonville in week 1. Sitting at 7 D1 wins Delaware likely needs at least one more, but being able to play host to William & Mary and Richmond plays in their favor. Going 2 for 3 out of the remaining schedule would seal the deal and with Richmond struggling and Villanova in freefall, it's certainly possible.

Still in the hunt:

William & Mary (6-3, 3-2 CAA) - Remaining games: @Delaware, vs Towson, @Richmond - Sitting at 6 D1 wins the Tribe have their work cut out for them, but still have a shot. Tough games @ Delaware and vs Towson loom on the horizon, with the final regular season rivalry game against Richmond to cap things off. The Tribe likely go into Delaware about even, underdogs against the Tigers, and the favorites vs. Richmond. Realistically speaking, W&M needs at least two wins in this group, and with the head to head vs. JMU can likely clinch a playoff berth.

James Madison (6-3, 3-2 CAA) - Remaining games: @UNH, vs Stony Brook, @Towson - James Madison is in the same position as William and Mary in many ways. They're facing two tough road games (Durham in November is always a tough place to play for southern teams) with a game they should win against SBU. Realistically speaking, JMU needs at least 2 of these to go up to 8 D1 wins and have a good shot, but may need all 3 if William & Mary goes 8-4. I don't see a 5th CAA team making the field given what's going on in the rest of the league, and with the head to head loss against William and Mary, JMU will need a better record to slip past the Tribe.

Slim chance:

New Hampshire (4-4, 3-2 CAA) - Remaining games: vs JMU, @ Albany, vs Maine - New Hampshire faces their final weeks with only 4 D1 wins under their belts and a chance to only get three more. It plays in their favor that they get home field for two very tough games against JMU and Maine, but even if they win out their future may depend on what happens in the rest of the league.

Out of consideration (can no longer reach 7 D1 wins):
Villanova
Richmond
Albany
Stony Brook
Rhody

UNH pretty much took JMU out of the hunt today with a big must win. UNH needs to get things done at Albany and if they do I like their chances home vs Maine. Here's hoping the cardiac Cats make it to the playoffs again.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

The PL expected two of their teams to make it but Lehigh is no guarantee at this point. The SoCon is bleeding so they may only get three bids (Chatty, Samford and Wofford?). This helps a very strong CAA.

After the loss to y'all today we need to shut down Richmond for sure to have a shot, and take out Nova as well to really help the chances. At 8-4 we should get in over JMU if the CAA sends 4 teams, at 9-3 there's better support for the CAA sending 4 teams.

[wmmii]

With today's results here are my thoughts:

Maine is a lock to the automatic conference champ bid and top 5 seed
W&M gets in if they win out by upsetting Towson at home with their D (ranked #1 in scoring defense) and beat Richmond there
Towson has to win one of two games @ W&M and home to JMU
UNH has to win out @ Albany plus upset Maine in final game at UNH but only if JMU and W&M can both beat Towson
Deleware has to win out with Richmond and neutral site Nova game

See only 4 CAA bids between these 5 teams with everybody else out

[BlueHenSinfonian]

With today's results here are my thoughts:

Maine is a lock to the automatic conference champ bid and top 5 seed
W&M gets in if they win out by upsetting Towson at home with their D (ranked #1 in scoring defense) and beat Richmond there
Towson has to win one of two games @ W&M and home to JMU
UNH has to win out @ Albany plus upset Maine in final game at UNH but only if JMU and W&M can both beat Towson
Deleware has to win out with Richmond and neutral site Nova game

See only 4 CAA bids between these 5 teams with everybody else out

Maine is a lock.

Towson is 99% a lock at this point, but winning at least one of their last two would certainly help.

W&M moved solidly into the #3 position after this game, but needs at least one more win.

Delaware is now in the #4 position, and needs at least one more game.

UNH can't hit 8 wins, if both W&M and Delaware hit 8 (or 9) UNH doesn't get a look. If Delaware drops the next two, UNH might just thread the needle into the playoffs, but it's just as likely that the CAA will only send 3 if no other teams hit the 8 win mark in a 12 game season.

[UNH Fanboi]

Maine is a lock.

Towson is 99% a lock at this point, but winning at least one of their last two would certainly help.

W&M moved solidly into the #3 position after this game, but needs at least one more win.

Delaware is now in the #4 position, and needs at least one more game.

UNH can't hit 8 wins, if both W&M and Delaware hit 8 (or 9) UNH doesn't get a look. If Delaware drops the next two, UNH might just thread the needle into the playoffs, but it's just as likely that the CAA will only send 3 if no other teams hit the 8 win mark in a 12 game season.

7-4 UNH should get in over 8-4 Delaware. UNH's win over Maine would be bigger than Delaware's win over Towson. They both lost to W&M, and Delaware lost to JMU. Delaware shouldn't get in just because of a meaningless extra win over Delaware st., but I wouldn't put it past the committee. They did the same thing several years ago.

[tribe_pride]

Maine is a lock.

Towson is 99% a lock at this point, but winning at least one of their last two would certainly help.

W&M moved solidly into the #3 position after this game, but needs at least one more win.

Delaware is now in the #4 position, and needs at least one more game.

UNH can't hit 8 wins, if both W&M and Delaware hit 8 (or 9) UNH doesn't get a look. If Delaware drops the next two, UNH might just thread the needle into the playoffs, but it's just as likely that the CAA will only send 3 if no other teams hit the 8 win mark in a 12 game season.

If Towson loses the next 2, I don't think they are in. They would have lost their last 3 games (bad trend) and their only wins would be against:

0-8 UConn (possibly the worst BCS team)
3-8 Holy Cross
4-5 Delaware State
4-6 UNC Central
3-6 Stony Brook
1-9 Albany
4-6 Richmond
5-4 UNH


That is only 1 good win if they finish up 8-4. May be good enough with 24 playoff teams and 12 at-larges but would not have been before.

All of that being said, another good win versus JMU and/or W&M should give them that 2nd or 3rd good win and either 9 or 10 wins which should be good enough

[BlueHenSinfonian]

7-4 UNH should get in over 8-4 Delaware. UNH's win over Maine would be bigger than Delaware's win over Towson. They both lost to W&M, and Delaware lost to JMU. Delaware shouldn't get in just because of a meaningless extra win over Delaware st., but I wouldn't put it past the committee. They did the same thing several years ago.

Delaware beat JMU.

[UNH Fanboi]

Delaware beat JMU.

Sorry, got that wrong. Still think 8-4 shouldn't automatically trump 7-4.

[Tribal]

UD helps their chances with no West Chester on their schedule.

[tribe_pride]

Sorry, got that wrong. Still think 8-4 shouldn't automatically trump 7-4.

But it has in the past.

The Tribe got left out when they where were 7-4 in 2008 in place of an 8-4 Maine team. Both teams lost to JMU, Richmond and an FBS team. W&M lost to a #6 ranked Nova team by 10 and Maine lost to #10 UNH by 4. W&M had beaten UNH at UNH and Maine didn't play either Nova or W&M. The rest of their schedules considered similarly tough wins. W&M's win over UNH should have given them the advantage but we were left out because we played one less game.

[wmmii]

If Towson loses the next 2, I don't think they are in. They would have lost their last 3 games (bad trend) and their only wins would be against:

0-8 UConn (possibly the worst BCS team)
3-8 Holy Cross
4-5 Delaware State
4-6 UNC Central
3-6 Stony Brook
1-9 Albany
4-6 Richmond
5-4 UNH


That is only 1 good win if they finish up 8-4. May be good enough with 24 playoff teams and 12 at-larges but would not have been before.

All of that being said, another good win versus JMU and/or W&M should give them that 2nd or 3rd good win and either 9 or 10 wins which should be good enough

I concur, strength of schedule will doom Towson if they lose out and is a huge plus for W&M if they beat Towson next week which was the logic of my earlier post.

[wmmii]

But it has in the past.

The Tribe got left out when they where were 7-4 in 2008 in place of an 8-4 Maine team. Both teams lost to JMU, Richmond and an FBS team. W&M lost to a #6 ranked Nova team by 10 and Maine lost to #10 UNH by 4. W&M had beaten UNH at UNH and Maine didn't play either Nova or W&M. The rest of their schedules considered similarly tough wins. W&M's win over UNH should have given them the advantage but we were left out because we played one less game.

Committee now has to put more weight on stength of schedule than before so this should not happen!

[WrenFGun]

I'm just happy we're still talking about it.

Kind of funny that UNH is in almost the exact same spot Towson was last year (except Towson had two FBS losses). Final week win over best team in the CAA if they win out, and still very much in the hands of the committee. Long way to go, though, Albany will be tough.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

Committee now has to put more weight on stength of schedule than before so this should not happen!

With a win vs Richmond W&M should be in this year, even if they lose to Towson.

I don't see anything in a potential 7-4 UNH resume that looks better than a potential 8-4 Delaware resume. A win over Maine and a loss to Towson cancels out against a loss to Maine and a win over Towson. I suppose Delaware would have a theoretical loss to Villanova whereas UNH won in that scenario, but to my mind the extra win trumps that.

In terms of SOS UNH and Delaware are about even this year, Lehigh might be a stronger team than anyone Delaware played OOC, but UNH didn't win that game, so it shouldn't really play in their favor. In a 12 game season teams should be expected to play 12 games, they shouldn't get pass for failing to schedule the full slate.

[UNH Fanboi]

But it has in the past.

The Tribe got left out when they where were 7-4 in 2008 in place of an 8-4 Maine team. Both teams lost to JMU, Richmond and an FBS team. W&M lost to a #6 ranked Nova team by 10 and Maine lost to #10 UNH by 4. W&M had beaten UNH at UNH and Maine didn't play either Nova or W&M. The rest of their schedules considered similarly tough wins. W&M's win over UNH should have given them the advantage but we were left out because we played one less game.

I'm well aware of that precedent, hence my use of the word should. If you want to make an argument that Delaware has a better resume, then fine, but it shouldn't be simply that they picked up an extra win over Wagner or Delaware st.

[TigerFen]

Going into the home stretch, this is how I see it:

Almost Certainly In:

Maine (8-1, 5-0 CAA) - Remaining games: @Albany, vs Rhody, @UNH - Maine is in full control of their destiny now, and with wins over 2 of the last 3 is a lock for CAA champion. They're already likely in with 8 D1 wins, but the easiest remaining conference schedule in the league bodes well for them to lock up the autobid as well.

Towson (8-2, 4-2 CAA) - Remaining games: @William & Mary, vs JMU - Towson has stumbled a couple of times lately with losses to Villanova and Delaware, but already has the requisite 8 D1 wins for a 12 game season, including a signature win @UConn. Their remaining games are both going to be challenges as both William & Mary and JMU have been on an upswing. A win over either makes this a mortal lock, but even if they drop both they're likely in.

In a good position:

Delaware (7-2, 4-1 CAA) - Remaining games: vs William & Mary, vs Richmond, vs Villanova (neutral site) - Delaware is in better shape at 7-2 than they've been in modern history, since dumping the West Chester D2 game for a playoff-counter Jacksonville in week 1. Sitting at 7 D1 wins Delaware likely needs at least one more, but being able to play host to William & Mary and Richmond plays in their favor. Going 2 for 3 out of the remaining schedule would seal the deal and with Richmond struggling and Villanova in freefall, it's certainly possible.

Still in the hunt:

William & Mary (6-3, 3-2 CAA) - Remaining games: @Delaware, vs Towson, @Richmond - Sitting at 6 D1 wins the Tribe have their work cut out for them, but still have a shot. Tough games @ Delaware and vs Towson loom on the horizon, with the final regular season rivalry game against Richmond to cap things off. The Tribe likely go into Delaware about even, underdogs against the Tigers, and the favorites vs. Richmond. Realistically speaking, W&M needs at least two wins in this group, and with the head to head vs. JMU can likely clinch a playoff berth.

James Madison (6-3, 3-2 CAA) - Remaining games: @UNH, vs Stony Brook, @Towson - James Madison is in the same position as William and Mary in many ways. They're facing two tough road games (Durham in November is always a tough place to play for southern teams) with a game they should win against SBU. Realistically speaking, JMU needs at least 2 of these to go up to 8 D1 wins and have a good shot, but may need all 3 if William & Mary goes 8-4. I don't see a 5th CAA team making the field given what's going on in the rest of the league, and with the head to head loss against William and Mary, JMU will need a better record to slip past the Tribe.


I think the only team certainly in is Maine. If Towson loses out, I can see them outside of the playoffs this year. William and Mary has a great defense. Something Towson doesn't have. I think I would put them in a Good position, but I also see Towson's defense game after game. I would now put James Madison in the slim chance line now with they're loss at the moment.