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View Full Version : Good Wins/Bad Losses - Week 10



superman7515
November 3rd, 2013, 12:57 AM
Okay, so in an attempt to get this out sooner, I decided to give out the link before it is completed. Each week about 2-5 teams move in/out of the Good Wins and Bad Losses sections. Not that big of a deal when there are 42 teams in each classification. So I used last weeks rankings and assigned all of the Good Wins/Bad Losses using those numbers. Once everything is updated, I will come in and figure out the changes, and update accordingly. But by doing it this way, I only have to worry about a handful of teams once I update instead of having to do it all at once. The plus side is that this allows everyone to get an idea of the Good Wins/Bad Losses early enough to get a glimpse while doing our poll ballots.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgtKAORz8z6vdDd2amhTd05oRTZIc2EyNS1QUmFfW Hc&usp=drive_web#gid=0

Last week, the 5 teams most likely to break into the Good Wins classification were:

Wofford - Idle
Pennsylvania - Shutout 27-0 by Brown
Brown - See above
Cal Poly - Pulled away from UC Davis in the 2nd half for a 34-16 win
Georgia Southern - Lost to Furman

So I would say Brown has a pretty good chance of counting as a Good Win this week and Cal Poly could be back in depending on who else dropped and if anyone lower moved in front of them.

Last week, the 5 teams most likely to fall into the Bad Loss classification were:

Bucknell - Pulled away in the 2nd half to win handily at Colgate
Delaware State - Won a squeaker vs Howard
North Carolina Central - Lost big to Bethune-Cookman
Rhode Island - Debacled at Old Dominion
Alcorn State - Lost a shocker to Alabama A&M

Bucknell and DelState should be safe. Central losing to BCU shouldn't hurt them much since BCU is a Top 15 team. Rhode Island had an ugly loss but ODU is a good team. That leaves Alcorn State, who has a good record, but lost to a terrible A&M team, as the most likely to become a Bad Loss this week.

Anyway, check out the spreadsheet if for no other reason than it is starting to become a lot clearer on who is getting in, simply because so many teams are dropping out. All of the color-coding is updated to reflect this weekend's games.

superman7515
November 4th, 2013, 09:51 PM
Everything is finalized now. New teams this week...
Good Wins:
In = Brown, Cal Poly, Wofford
Out = Liberty, South Dakota, Stony Brook

Bad Losses:
In = Alcorn State, Indiana State, Rhode Island
Out = Butler, Duquesne, Marist

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgtKAORz8z6vdDd2amhTd05oRTZIc2EyNS1QUmFfW Hc&usp=drive_web#gid=0

dudeitsaid
November 4th, 2013, 10:22 PM
As always, excellent stuff, Superman!

I think it's very interesting that only one team (SFA) with a good win also has a bad loss!

It is also interesting considering the number of good wins attributed to ranked teams. Both NDSU and EIU have 5 good wins, and are ranked 1 & 2 on most polls I've seen, including AGS. There are zero teams with 4 good wins, so that says a lot about the competition level that NDSU and EIU have faced, and "how they fared" against them.

Then you get into the three good win teams, and see EWU (4 AGS), Maine (5), NAU (12), McNeese (15), and Tenn Martin (32).

You get to two and one good win, and there are a whole lot more in their, many ranked, several not ranked. Only Charleston Southern, Chattanooga, and Wofford are ranked in AGS, but don't have any "good wins" according to this criteria.

Also, it is interesting to see that MVFC and OVC are the only conferences to have ZERO bad losses by any team. And the Independants, NEC, Pioneer, and SWAC have ZERO good wins.

This is an excellent visual to marinate on, and really paints a interesting picture of the FCS as a whole. Obviously, it's just a piece of the puzzle, but there is a lot in here that gets me thinking each time.

superman7515
November 4th, 2013, 10:39 PM
The Pioneer and SWAC's propensity to play, and lose, against lower division competition can't be helping them.

Pioneer: 5 losses to D2 schools, 1 loss to a D3 school, 2 losses to NAIA schools
SWAC: 3 losses to D2 schools

Grizzlies82
November 5th, 2013, 02:06 AM
The Pioneer and SWAC's propensity to play, and lose, against lower division competition can't be helping them.

Pioneer: 5 losses to D2 schools, 1 loss to a D3 school, 2 losses to NAIA schools.

Wow! That must be some kind of single season record.

rokamortis
November 5th, 2013, 06:02 AM
Stinks that Liberty is no longer a good win - they must have been dancing on the precipice and struggling with VMI pushed them over. Hopefully they can move back up. But finishing with Presby and Brevard probably won't do it.

Cocky
November 5th, 2013, 06:45 AM
Then you get into the three good win teams, and see EWU (4 AGS), Maine (5), NAU (12), McNeese (15), and Tenn Martin (32).


UTM stick out in this crowd at 32 while no good win UTC who loss to UTM is ranked. Everybody wants teams to play a good schedule but knock them hard when they lose. UTM has 3 losses while UTC has 2. If UTC is ranked UTM at least deserves a few more votes. I understand the OVC hasn't won a playoff game in generations.

thebootfitter
November 5th, 2013, 07:38 AM
UTM stick out in this crowd at 32 while no good win UTC who loss to UTM is ranked. Everybody wants teams to play a good schedule but knock them hard when they lose. UTM has 3 losses while UTC has 2. If UTC is ranked UTM at least deserves a few more votes.
Hard to argue with giving UTM some further consideration after putting into this perspective.

dbackjon
November 5th, 2013, 09:18 AM
NAU stayed static with three good wins, as South Dakota dropped out, but Cal Poly moved in. USD is right on the edge.

USD plays Montana this week - NAU beat both already.

dystopiamembrane
November 5th, 2013, 09:21 AM
Has there been discussion about why you have not listed MSU's SFA loss?

dbackjon
November 5th, 2013, 09:27 AM
Has there been discussion about why you have not listed MSU's SFA loss?


Probably because there are at least 42 teams worse than SFA in FCS...

dystopiamembrane
November 5th, 2013, 09:30 AM
Probably because there are at least 42 teams worse than SFA in FCS...That puts SFA at about #80. Is that not a bad loss for the AGS #9? Or, did you mean that Superman only considers teams in the bottom 40 as bad losses?

superman7515
November 5th, 2013, 09:53 AM
Every team that is a Good Win or a Bad Loss is listed on that page of the workbook in alphabetical order.

dystopiamembrane
November 5th, 2013, 10:14 AM
Every team that is a Good Win or a Bad Loss is listed on that page of the workbook in alphabetical order.I see. How are the bad losses determined?

dbackjon
November 5th, 2013, 10:50 AM
That puts SFA at about #80. Is that not a bad loss for the AGS #9? Or, did you mean that Superman only considers teams in the bottom 40 as bad losses?
Yes, that is the criteria - 1-42 are good wins. 43-80 are neither good wins or bad losses

dystopiamembrane
November 5th, 2013, 10:51 AM
Got it. Which ranking system is employed?