MVFC Playoff Outlook

[Professor Chaos]

After week 9 it's looking like a tough road to the playoffs for all but two teams in the MVFC. A lot of teams are, or should be, already in playoff mode. I've ranked the teams in order of which I think are most likely to make the playoffs to least likely.

1. North Dakota St 8-0 (5-0) - Remaining games are IlSU, @YSU, and USD. The Bison have already locked up a playoff spot and even if they pick up a loss I still think they're one of the top two seeds and secure home field until Frisco.

2. Youngstown St 7-1 (4-0) - Remaining games are @USD, @UNI, NDSU, and SDSU. This will be interesting stretch run for YSU, 3 of their 4 remaining could be against desperate teams clinging to their playoff lives and all 4 games will be tough. I think they need to win at least two to secure a playoff bid. If they win 3 or all 4 they're looking at a seed, potentially a high one.

3. Southern Illinois 4-4 (2-2) - Remaining games are @WIU, MSU, IlSU, and @InSU. The schedule finally gets easier for SIU but the problem they have is their road wins @SDSU and @UNI continue to look worse. I still think they're in easily if they win out which is a very distinct possibility but they can't afford another loss.

4. South Dakota St 5-4 (2-3) - Remaining games are InSU, @USD, and @YSU. The SELA win continues to look better for the Jacks but they need to win out to have any shot and their last two on the road will be tough. That last game against YSU has a chance to be very interesting if SDSU is 7-4 going into it and if YSU trips up down the stretch to come in at 8-3 or 7-4.

5. Northern Iowa 4-4 (0-4) - Remaining games are @IlSU, YSU, @MSU, WIU. I still think the Panthers have an outside shot to make it but they eliminated any margin for error with their loss in Brookings yesterday. The early season wins against McNeese and Iowa St would be good enough to get them in at 8-4 IMO. Their toughest remaining game is at the UNI-Dome but they can't afford to drop any of them.

6. Illinois St 4-4 (3-2) - Remaining games are UNI, @NDSU, and @SIU. I'm basically just including them because they'd be in if they win out but the chances of that happening are slim to none.

7. South Dakota 4-4 (3-2) - Remaining games are YSU, Montana, SDSU, and @NDSU. Whatever the small chance is that IlSU has to make the playoffs USD's is even smaller. They need to win out an incredibly tough slate of games. Just the fact that they still have a chance going into November is impressive nonetheless.


If I had to handicap the number of MVFC teams that make the playoffs I'd put it at something like this:

1 team: 5%
2 teams: 45%
3 teams: 35%
4 teams: 10%
5 teams: 5%

Over/under would be 2.5 teams in.

[BISON Thunder]

Impressive write up Professor...thank you.

[JayJ79]

I thought I read somewhere that SIU's QB fractured a finger and will be out for at least a game. If that's true, it could add a big question mark for them the rest of the season (I have no clue how good their backup QB is)

[NoDak 4 Ever]

I thought I read somewhere that SIU's QB fractured a finger and will be out for at least a game. If that's true, it could add a big question mark for them the rest of the season (I have no clue how good their backup QB is)

He didn't look great when he came in last week.

[Professor Chaos]

I thought I read somewhere that SIU's QB fractured a finger and will be out for at least a game. If that's true, it could add a big question mark for them the rest of the season (I have no clue how good their backup QB is)
Yeah he broke his index finger on his throwing hand I believe which is a very troublesome injury for a QB. I had heard rumors that he was done for the year but if that injury is correct he's definitely going to miss some time. Their backup did not look good against NDSU but with the way that he was getting hammered on every play I don't really hold it against him. We'll see how he does this week with two weeks of practice with the 1s under his belt.

[Bisonwinagn]

The positive side it looks like there will be a lot of teams with 4 losses competing for at large berths. The CAA could end up with three or four teams with 4 losses as well. I could also see the Southern only getting one bid. The big question is can these teams actually win out.

[RabidRabbit]

SIU has 1 W vs a less than D-I, so if Salukis finish 8-4, it's more like 7.5. Although all the SIU losses are to play-off teams. YSU is only Q?? on play-offs.

SDSU/UNI both can't afford any more losses.

NDSU is looking set for the #1 pick, and no worse than 6th, even with a couple of losses.

[IBleedYellow]

I'm fairly certain YSU goes 2-2 down the stretch.

[skinny_uncle]

I thought I read somewhere that SIU's QB fractured a finger and will be out for at least a game. If that's true, it could add a big question mark for them the rest of the season (I have no clue how good their backup QB is)

He's a freshman. Who knows???

[Drblankstare]

It would be a damn shame if this conference only gets 2 teams, but this could very well happen. We'll see

[OBC]

Great write up.
Illinois St does not play SDSU this year. They play at So Illinois.
not that it changes any of the probabilities.

[Yote 53]

The positive for USD is that winning out against that schedule would guarantee a playoff spot. I still feel good as a USD fan. We probably won't make the playoffs but the next three games at home will be fun. I feel good about are chances in those. The finale at NDSU, well we would have to catch lightning in a bottle for that one.

Bottom line, this is better than last season.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Crapsville is where we are. I really think we are going to lose at least one more game. I really just hope that at some point we will play a game that doesn't go into OT.

[Yotes]

The positive for USD is that winning out against that schedule would guarantee a playoff spot. I still feel good as a USD fan. We probably won't make the playoffs but the next three games at home will be fun. I feel good about are chances in those. The finale at NDSU, well we would have to catch lightning in a bottle for that one.

Bottom line, this is better than last season.
My sentiments exactly. It would be fun to make a little more noise before the season ends, and we have an opportunity around every corner to do so.

[ValleyTalk]

My sentiments exactly. It would be fun to make a little more noise before the season ends, and we have an opportunity around every corner to do so.
I love your defense, but you have the absolute worst offense in the league. You've scored 20 points just once all season. Now I'm sure I'll jinx myself and you will score more than 20 on YSU, but even then you may need 28-30 to beat YSU.

[IBleedYellow]

I love your defense, but you have the absolute worst offense in the league. You've scored 20 points just once all season. Now I'm sure I'll jinx myself and you will score more than 20 on YSU, but even then you may need 28-30 to beat YSU.

Your Penguins are losing in Vermilion next week. The yotes aren't the doormat anymore.

Moto X

[Yotes]

I love your defense, but you have the absolute worst offense in the league. You've scored 20 points just once all season. Now I'm sure I'll jinx myself and you will score more than 20 on YSU, but even then you may need 28-30 to beat YSU.
We are absolutely scoring 20 points this week. We are the ****tiest road team ever and haven't played well outdoors in a long time, otherwise we would have done it against Illinois State. It's going to take many mistakes to keep us under 20 points again. Throw out our offensive output in the first 4 games though, we had a radically different offense starting with the Missouri State game.

If we don't win the game, I'm positive we will give your team a hell of a time. Most we'd lose by is 7, but I like the upset. DakotaDome should be rockin.

[Grizzlies82]

Nice breakdown Prof Chaos. Looking at those schedules it's likely at least one of those four loss teams should be able to win out. Southern Illinois seems to have the easiest road, though any of them might pull it out. However, it's also likely there will be multiple four loss teams across the country. So I doubt winning out is a certain ticket into the playoffs. Youngstown fans must be taking comfort in their 7-1 record. YSU has a potentially dangerous game each remaining week. They have the National Champion and three teams desperate to win. It will be interesting to see how that shakes out for them.

[JayJ79]

I really just hope that at some point we will play a game that doesn't go into OT.

no way! we're gonna play 7 consecutive OT games. booyah!

[IBleedYellow]

Nice breakdown Prof Chaos. Looking at those schedules it's likely at least one of those four loss teams should be able to win out. Southern Illinois seems to have the easiest road, though any of them might pull it out. However, it's also likely there will be multiple four loss teams across the country. So I doubt winning out is a certain ticket into the playoffs. Youngstown fans must be taking comfort in their 7-1 record. YSU has a potentially dangerous game each remaining week. They have the National Champion and three teams desperate to win. It will be interesting to see how that shakes out for them.


I would not want to be YSU right now. The have an absolute MEAT GRINDER of 4 teams left that are probably the toughest teams in the Valley. Like I said a few posts ago, they will be doing well if they come out of those 4 games with a 2-2 record. They could easily lose all FOUR games, or just as easily win all four. Like I said, my guess is they are losing 2 and winning 2. Hopefully one of those loses is to NDSU.

[Houndawg]

Nice breakdown Prof Chaos. Looking at those schedules it's likely at least one of those four loss teams should be able to win out. Southern Illinois seems to have the easiest road, though any of them might pull it out. However, it's also likely there will be multiple four loss teams across the country. So I doubt winning out is a certain ticket into the playoffs. Youngstown fans must be taking comfort in their 7-1 record. YSU has a potentially dangerous game each remaining week. They have the National Champion and three teams desperate to win. It will be interesting to see how that shakes out for them.

Except for the fact that they have to do it with their Freshman backup QB..

[Houndawg]

Crapsville is where we are. I really think we are going to lose at least one more game. I really just hope that at some point we will play a game that doesn't go into OT.

Its all mental from here for UNI.

[Kemo]

Just for fun, let's look at the remaining schedules for 4 teams on the playoff bubble in the MVC (I left out USD because I don't see any chance of them winning in Fargo).

Here is there remaining schedules:

Youngstown State (7-1): USD, UNI, NDSU, SDSU
Southern Illinois (4-4): WIU, MSU, ISUr, ISUb
Northern Iowa (4-4): ISUr, YSU, MSU, WIU
South Dakota State (5-4): ISUb, USD, YSU

I bolded the games on each teams' schedule that they would need to win in order to be right on the bubble at season's end, which would give them each an 8-4 schedule. Though a lot of things have to happen to make this scenario work, it is not unrealistic being the SIU, UNI, and SDSU have front-loaded schedules and YSU has a back-loaded one.

So if this happens, who belongs in the playoffs more? Maybe there is a spot for all 4, but let's say there are only 3 spots, or even 2. Who is left out?

Therefore, your homework assignment for this evening is to rank these four teams in order of most deserving to least deserving, and remember, you have to show your work xcoffeex

[KUlawJack]

Just for fun, let's look at the remaining schedules for 4 teams on the playoff bubble in the MVC (I left out USD because I don't see any chance of them winning in Fargo).

Here is there remaining schedules:

Youngstown State (7-1): USD, UNI, NDSU, SDSU
Southern Illinois (4-4): WIU, MSU, ISUr, ISUb
Northern Iowa (4-4): ISUr, YSU, MSU, WIU
South Dakota State (5-4): ISUb, USD, YSU

I bolded the games on each teams' schedule that they would need to win in order to be right on the bubble at season's end, which would give them each an 8-4 schedule. Though a lot of things have to happen to make this scenario work, it is not unrealistic being the SIU, UNI, and SDSU have front-loaded schedules and YSU has a back-loaded one.

So if this happens, who belongs in the playoffs more? Maybe there is a spot for all 4, but let's say there are only 3 spots, or even 2. Who is left out?

Therefore, your homework assignment for this evening is to rank these four teams in order of most deserving to least deserving, and remember, you have to show your work xcoffeex

Well, if this played out:

YSU would have a win over SIU on the road. (5-3 in conference)
UNI would have wins over Iowa State, McNeese, and YSU. (4-4 in conference) "Bad" loss to USD (this would assume that USD loses to SDSU, YSU, and NDSU, dropping them down the league standings, as is required for this experiment)
SIU would have wins over UNI and SDSU on the road. (6-2 in conference)
SDSU would have wins over SELA, YSU on the road, and UNI. (5-3 in conference) Bad loss to MSU.

I would wager, if this actually occurred, YSU would be penalized for a collapse down the stretch and scheduling no one OOC (excluding Michigan State). SIU would be in second place in the MVFC and should get in with their road wins in conference over SDSU and UNI. UNI has an FBS win and a butt-kicking of McNeese, who may end up being Southland champ. SDSU has the head-to-head over UNI, a win over YSU on the road, and a win over SELA, who may end up being the Southland champ. Ranking:

1. SIU
2A. SDSU
2B. UNI
4. YSU

Simply put, this could be a disaster in the making - only get 2 teams in - or a great thing - get all of them in, plus NDSU. I don't know which way it will go.

If this plays out, I would predict 4 MVFC teams - NDSU, SIU, SDSU, and UNI.

Chances of this actually playing out, very very slim.

[stuperman17]

I would not want to be YSU right now. The have an absolute MEAT GRINDER of 4 teams left that are probably the toughest teams in the Valley. Like I said a few posts ago, they will be doing well if they come out of those 4 games with a 2-2 record. They could easily lose all FOUR games, or just as easily win all four. Like I said, my guess is they are losing 2 and winning 2. Hopefully one of those loses is to NDSU.

I agree with most of this. I think YSU will go at least 1-3 down this stretch, and I think they'd squeek into the postseason at that rate. However, I tend to lean toward 2-2 here (hope for 3-1).

The NDSU game will be huge here in Youngstown, especially if they win the next 2; or at least split them. I mean, they're back to back Champs.. Best team in the nation, why wouldn't it be?... But Tressel is also getting inducted into the YSU HOF that day too... Should be a great atmosphere, hopefully a great game too.

[Evolution Prime]

But Tressel is also getting inducted into the YSU HOF that day too... Should be a great atmosphere, hopefully a great game too.

NDSU likes to ruin other teams parties (K-State, SDSU...)

[RabidRabbit]

Assuming that the above is correct then the following are the MVFC standings top 5

NDSU 8-0 12-0
SIU 6-2 8-4 Good wins UNI, SDSU - No bad losses. 1 W vs <D-I
YSU 5-3 8-4 Good wins SIU - No bad losses
SDSU 5-3 8-4 Good wins UNI, YSU, SE LA Bad loss - Mo St.
UNI 4-4 8-4 Good wins Ia St. (BCS), McNeese Bad loss - USD (assumes USD has losing record at end of season)


SIU makes it as #2 and alone, and over 7 W's
SDSU - Good wins, and 4 games winning streak gets them a "last in" slot
YSU - Gets left home for no Nov wins, and only SIU as good win.
UNI - Can't make it as a 5th place team, even with win-out. Although, the Panthers have the strongest OOC success, so would be the top choice of 4-4 MVFC teams. NDSU set 4-4 MVFC precedent in 2010 with a very similar profile to 2013 Panthers.

[IBleedYellow]

NDSU would be 11-0 Rabbit. 10-0 if we win out with our Ferris State win excluded (although one can argue they are better than Delaware State!)

[Houndawg]

Just for fun, let's look at the remaining schedules for 4 teams on the playoff bubble in the MVC (I left out USD because I don't see any chance of them winning in Fargo).

Here is there remaining schedules:

Youngstown State (7-1): USD, UNI, NDSU, SDSU
Southern Illinois (4-4): WIU, MSU, ISUr, ISUb
Northern Iowa (4-4): ISUr, YSU, MSU, WIU
South Dakota State (5-4): ISUb, USD, YSU

I bolded the games on each teams' schedule that they would need to win in order to be right on the bubble at season's end, which would give them each an 8-4 schedule. Though a lot of things have to happen to make this scenario work, it is not unrealistic being the SIU, UNI, and SDSU have front-loaded schedules and YSU has a back-loaded one.

So if this happens, who belongs in the playoffs more? Maybe there is a spot for all 4, but let's say there are only 3 spots, or even 2. Who is left out?

Therefore, your homework assignment for this evening is to rank these four teams in order of most deserving to least deserving, and remember, you have to show your work xcoffeex

Interesting. My opinion, should it play out as you've called it, and it isn't all that farfetched, would be that SIU is in and YSU is out because SIU would be coming in on a four-game winning streak behind their backup QB and YSU would be coming in on a three game losing streak, with losses to SDSU and UNI, and the committee does pay attention to who is hot right now and head to head with SIU was a one point game with a missed xp. They could be helped if they play NDSU as tough as UNI did and it might be that NDSU will be getting pt for their subs and keep the score close.

The tougher call is between SDSU and UNI, assuming the MVC gets only three teams, and the committee is unlikely to give anybody outside the CAA more than three teams in any year. Both teams would be coming in on four game winning streaks with wins over YSU who would have been ranked higher when UNI beat them. Among the 8-4 teams, SDSU and SIU would 2-1 against the other three and UNI and YSU would be 1-2. Slight edge to UNI for body of work, slight edge to SDSU for head to head. I think the committee would go with the dome team in playoff weather because the head to head was a one score OT game. So, SIU & UNI in, YSU and SDSU out..... flame on....

[penguinpower]

Interesting. My opinion, should it play out as you've called it, and it isn't all that farfetched, would be that SIU is in and YSU is out because SIU would be coming in on a four-game winning streak behind their backup QB and YSU would be coming in on a three game losing streak, with losses to SDSU and UNI, and the committee does pay attention to who is hot right now and head to head with SIU was a one point game with a missed xp. They could be helped if they play NDSU as tough as UNI did and it might be that NDSU will be getting pt for their subs and keep the score close.

The tougher call is between SDSU and UNI, assuming the MVC gets only three teams, and the committee is unlikely to give anybody outside the CAA more than three teams in any year. Both teams would be coming in on four game winning streaks with wins over YSU who would have been ranked higher when UNI beat them. Among the 8-4 teams, SDSU and SIU would 2-1 against the other three and UNI and YSU would be 1-2. Slight edge to UNI for body of work, slight edge to SDSU for head to head. I think the committee would go with the dome team in playoff weather because the head to head was a one score OT game. So, SIU & UNI in, YSU and SDSU out..... flame on....

The one thing that I think people are overlooking is that YSU has won all of the games they were supposed to and another game they were not supposed to win (SIU). I guess what I am saying is regardless of who they have played in the MCFC strengthwise, it is difficult to win all of your conference games and they have demonstrated that they can win close games, they have demonstrated the ability to come from behind an win, and they have also won in blowout fashion. They also appear to be improving every week but it was not as evident against WIU ona cold rainy night game. I think that YSU wins at least 2 if not 3 of the 4 games remaining.

[Houndawg]

The one thing that I think people are overlooking is that YSU has won all of the games they were supposed to and another game they were not supposed to win (SIU). I guess what I am saying is regardless of who they have played in the MCFC strengthwise, it is difficult to win all of your conference games and they have demonstrated that they can win close games, they have demonstrated the ability to come from behind an win, and they have also won in blowout fashion. They also appear to be improving every week but it was not as evident against WIU ona cold rainy night game. I think that YSU wins at least 2 if not 3 of the 4 games remaining.

Maybe they will, remember we're speculating about Kemo's what-if scenario. I think the fact that you would be the only team of the four finishing on a losing streak would trump your earlier work. And also the jury is still out on YSU in a way, just sayin'...personally I think that SIU has the toughest road even though they have the weakest remaining schedule because they're without the QB that was leading the MVC in total offense and their defense isn't bad but isn't one you can ride when you have a weak offense.

[Yotes]

I very much doubt that SDSU or UNI are able to win out, but think SIU might have what it takes. I'll take 8-4 SIU as the third playoff team, if there is one. Do not think the UNI would make it at 5 losses either, even with their impressive wins.

[Professor Chaos]

Just for fun, let's look at the remaining schedules for 4 teams on the playoff bubble in the MVC (I left out USD because I don't see any chance of them winning in Fargo).

Here is there remaining schedules:

Youngstown State (7-1): USD, UNI, NDSU, SDSU
Southern Illinois (4-4): WIU, MSU, ISUr, ISUb
Northern Iowa (4-4): ISUr, YSU, MSU, WIU
South Dakota State (5-4): ISUb, USD, YSU

I bolded the games on each teams' schedule that they would need to win in order to be right on the bubble at season's end, which would give them each an 8-4 schedule. Though a lot of things have to happen to make this scenario work, it is not unrealistic being the SIU, UNI, and SDSU have front-loaded schedules and YSU has a back-loaded one.

So if this happens, who belongs in the playoffs more? Maybe there is a spot for all 4, but let's say there are only 3 spots, or even 2. Who is left out?

Therefore, your homework assignment for this evening is to rank these four teams in order of most deserving to least deserving, and remember, you have to show your work xcoffeex
It would be a mess but sorting them out would be fairly simple since they all played each other. You could just look at records against each other to see how to rank them.

1. SIU (2-1) - Wins at SDSU and at UNI, loss vs YSU.
2. SDSU (2-1) - Wins vs UNI and at YSU, loss vs SIU.
3. UNI (1-2) - Win vs YSU, loss vs SIU and at SDSU.
4. YSU (1-2) - Win at SIU, loss at UNI and vs SDSU.

Keep in mind though that in that scenario SIU would be 6-2 in conference which is better than all the others. UNI would have the best OOC resume with the Iowa St and McNeese St wins and SDSU would also have a good OOC win against SELA. Of that group of 4 potential 8-4 teams I definitely think that YSU would be shakiest. It all depends on what happens elsewhere but if YSU wants to not be sweating on selection Sunday they better win 2 of their last 4.

[Trumpster]

Quite an interesting question because while UNI has the OOC games SDSU and SIU have the bonus of potential bus games in round 2 which NCAA would love. However if the NCAA upped it from 400mi to 450mi as some rumors have stated then all 4 teams are within a 'bus trip' of an assumed seed. (UNI is something like 449 mi from NDSU and YSU is ~420 from EIU)

And yes, I'm still bitter about playing SDSU in round 2 last year. I don't want to see another MVFC team until the quarters at least.



edit: NDSU fan if not obvious.

[KUlawJack]

Interesting. My opinion, should it play out as you've called it, and it isn't all that farfetched, would be that SIU is in and YSU is out because SIU would be coming in on a four-game winning streak behind their backup QB and YSU would be coming in on a three game losing streak, with losses to SDSU and UNI, and the committee does pay attention to who is hot right now and head to head with SIU was a one point game with a missed xp. They could be helped if they play NDSU as tough as UNI did and it might be that NDSU will be getting pt for their subs and keep the score close.

The tougher call is between SDSU and UNI, assuming the MVC gets only three teams, and the committee is unlikely to give anybody outside the CAA more than three teams in any year. Both teams would be coming in on four game winning streaks with wins over YSU who would have been ranked higher when UNI beat them. Among the 8-4 teams, SDSU and SIU would 2-1 against the other three and UNI and YSU would be 1-2. Slight edge to UNI for body of work, slight edge to SDSU for head to head. I think the committee would go with the dome team in playoff weather because the head to head was a one score OT game. So, SIU & UNI in, YSU and SDSU out..... flame on....

If this did play out, maybe it will be that the Committee will have to give us 4 spots? Hard to really differentiate UNI and SDSU under this scenario. Head to head would have to mean something. However, UNI's win over Iowa State is big. Could it be that the Southland games will actually impact which one of the two could be selected? Strange scenario.

[Houndawg]

Quite an interesting question because while UNI has the OOC games SDSU and SIU have the bonus of potential bus games in round 2 which NCAA would love. However if the NCAA upped it from 400mi to 450mi as some rumors have stated then all 4 teams are within a 'bus trip' of an assumed seed. (UNI is something like 449 mi from NDSU and YSU is ~420 from EIU)

And yes, I'm still bitter about playing SDSU in round 2 last year. I don't want to see another MVFC team until the quarters at least.



edit: NDSU fan if not obvious.

Good point, unfortunately.

[Houndawg]

If this did play out, maybe it will be that the Committee will have to give us 4 spots? Hard to really differentiate UNI and SDSU under this scenario. Head to head would have to mean something. However, UNI's win over Iowa State is big. Could it be that the Southland games will actually impact which one of the two could be selected? Strange scenario.

Agreed, but the fact that is was an OT game makes it a little easier to pick either way, imo. What would really be weird would be getting four teams in and YSU stays home.

[penguinpower]

If this did play out, maybe it will be that the Committee will have to give us 4 spots? Hard to really differentiate UNI and SDSU under this scenario. Head to head would have to mean something. However, UNI's win over Iowa State is big. Could it be that the Southland games will actually impact which one of the two could be selected? Strange scenario.

I hear what you are saying, but I don't think there is enough brainpower on the committe to consider a scenario such as this. At the end of the day they will look at the number of division 1 wins and leave some deserving team out or the "Woffed" team out.

[KUlawJack]

I hear what you are saying, but I don't think there is enough brainpower on the committe to consider a scenario such as this. At the end of the day they will look at the number of division 1 wins and leave some deserving team out or the "Woffed" team out.

It would be sad to see that happen, as it is so tough to differentiate under the scenario presented.

[Grizzlies82]

Except for the fact that they have to do it with their Freshman backup QB..

I don't know a thing about their players. I was just looking at the remaining opponents and that suggested So. Illinois had an easier track to get four more wins compared to the other bubble teams. When it is all done, some four loss teams will be in the playoffs, several probably won't be. I just suspect the key will be how many three & four loss teams will there be nationwide.

[Houndawg]

I don't know a thing about their players. I was just looking at the remaining opponents and that suggested So. Illinois had an easier track to get four more wins compared to the other bubble teams. When it is all done, some four loss teams will be in the playoffs, several probably won't be. I just suspect the key will be how many three & four loss teams will there be nationwide.

Yes, and I would agree; just pointing out that it isn't as easy as it looks on paper due to the loss for the season of our starting QB who was the MVC leader in total offense.

[KUlawJack]

It would be a mess but sorting them out would be fairly simple since they all played each other. You could just look at records against each other to see how to rank them.

1. SIU (2-1) - Wins at SDSU and at UNI, loss vs YSU.
2. SDSU (2-1) - Wins vs UNI and at YSU, loss vs SIU.
3. UNI (1-2) - Win vs YSU, loss vs SIU and at SDSU.
4. YSU (1-2) - Win at SIU, loss at UNI and vs SDSU.

Keep in mind though that in that scenario SIU would be 6-2 in conference which is better than all the others. UNI would have the best OOC resume with the Iowa St and McNeese St wins and SDSU would also have a good OOC win against SELA. Of that group of 4 potential 8-4 teams I definitely think that YSU would be shakiest. It all depends on what happens elsewhere but if YSU wants to not be sweating on selection Sunday they better win 2 of their last 4.

Okay, let's try another one. Assume SIU wins out, 6-2 in conference. Assume YSU goes 2-2 down the stretch with a win over UNI and USD, leaving them at 6-2 in conference. Assume SDSU win out and beats YSU on the road to end the season. The results would be as such

1. SIU (2-1) Wins at SDSU and UNI, loss v. YSU
2. SDSU (2-1) Wins vs UNI and at YSU, loss vs. SIU
3. YSU (2-1) Wins at SIU and at UNI, loss vs. SDSU

You'd have SIU at 8-4, SDSU at 8-4 and YSU at 9-3. SDSU would have the head to head vs. YSU to finish the season. Would the committee leave out SDSU or could the Valley get 4 in? SDSU's loss at MSU really hurts right now and I think that could prevent us from getting in.

[Houndawg]

Okay, let's try another one. Assume SIU wins out, 6-2 in conference. Assume YSU goes 2-2 down the stretch with a win over UNI and USD, leaving them at 6-2 in conference. Assume SDSU win out and beats YSU on the road to end the season. The results would be as such

1. SIU (2-1) Wins at SDSU and at UNI, loss v. YSU
2. SDSU (2-1) Wins vs UNI and at YSU, loss vs. SIU
3. YSU (2-1) Wins at SIU and at UNI, loss vs. SDSU

You'd have SIU at 8-4, SDSU at 8-4 and YSU at 9-3. SDSU would have the head to head vs. YSU to finish the season. Would the committee leave out SDSU or could the Valley get 4 in? SDSU's loss at MSU really hurts right now and I think that could prevent us from getting in.

If it were the CAA they'd get four in. In this scenario YSU would be in, SIU should be in. SDSU's chances would depend on the rest of the field? I'd think they'd have a pretty competitive SOS too.

[dbackjon]

Youngstown State (7-1): USD, UNI, NDSU, SDSU (7-5)
Southern Illinois (4-4): WIU, MSU, ISUr, ISUb (7-5)
Northern Iowa (4-4):ISUr, YSU, MSU, WIU (7-5)
South Dakota State (5-4): ISUb, USD, YSU (7-5)Illinois State (4-4) UNI, NDSU, SIU (6-5)South Dakota (4-4) YSU, Montana, SDSU, NDSU (6-6)

One bid? :)

[Houndawg]

Youngstown State (7-1): USD, UNI, NDSU, SDSU (7-5)
Southern Illinois (4-4): WIU, MSU, ISUr, ISUb (7-5)
Northern Iowa (4-4):ISUr, YSU, MSU, WIU (7-5)
South Dakota State (5-4): ISUb, USD, YSU (7-5)Illinois State (4-4) UNI, NDSU, SIU (6-5)South Dakota (4-4) YSU, Montana, SDSU, NDSU (6-6)

One bid? :)

The rest of the FCS division would expel a huge sigh of relief. Of course the playoffs would be inferior...

[IBleedYellow]

I'm trying to figure out how a team that's 8-0 could go 6-6. Especially when they only play 11 games.

[JayJ79]

Quite an interesting question because while UNI has the OOC games SDSU and SIU have the bonus of potential bus games in round 2 which NCAA would love. However if the NCAA upped it from 400mi to 450mi as some rumors have stated then all 4 teams are within a 'bus trip' of an assumed seed. (UNI is something like 449 mi from NDSU and YSU is ~420 from EIU)

I'm pretty sure that this (https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles) is the official mileage table between schools that the NCAA uses for this determination.
according to that, it is 452 miles from UNI to NDSU (and 380 miles from UNI to EIU).

And it lists YSU as being 473 miles from EIU.

[Professor Chaos]

Okay, let's try another one. Assume SIU wins out, 6-2 in conference. Assume YSU goes 2-2 down the stretch with a win over UNI and USD, leaving them at 6-2 in conference. Assume SDSU win out and beats YSU on the road to end the season. The results would be as such

1. SIU (2-1) Wins at SDSU and UNI, loss v. YSU
2. SDSU (2-1) Wins vs UNI and at YSU, loss vs. SIU
3. YSU (2-1) Wins at SIU and at UNI, loss vs. SDSU

You'd have SIU at 8-4, SDSU at 8-4 and YSU at 9-3. SDSU would have the head to head vs. YSU to finish the season. Would the committee leave out SDSU or could the Valley get 4 in? SDSU's loss at MSU really hurts right now and I think that could prevent us from getting in.
I would be pretty confident that the MVFC could get 4 in that scenario. If only 3 make it my guess is the Missouri St loss would really come back to bite the Bunnies at that point and they would be the odd team out even with the head to head win against YSU and the Penguins losing their last two in that scenario.

[skinny_uncle]

Just for fun, let's look at the remaining schedules for 4 teams on the playoff bubble in the MVC (I left out USD because I don't see any chance of them winning in Fargo).

Here is there remaining schedules:

Youngstown State (7-1): USD, UNI, NDSU, SDSU
Southern Illinois (4-4): WIU, MSU, ISUr, ISUb
Northern Iowa (4-4): ISUr, YSU, MSU, WIU
South Dakota State (5-4): ISUb, USD, YSU

I bolded the games on each teams' schedule that they would need to win in order to be right on the bubble at season's end, which would give them each an 8-4 schedule. Though a lot of things have to happen to make this scenario work, it is not unrealistic being the SIU, UNI, and SDSU have front-loaded schedules and YSU has a back-loaded one.

So if this happens, who belongs in the playoffs more? Maybe there is a spot for all 4, but let's say there are only 3 spots, or even 2. Who is left out?

Therefore, your homework assignment for this evening is to rank these four teams in order of most deserving to least deserving, and remember, you have to show your work xcoffeex

In this scenario:
1. SIU (second place finish)
2. SDSU/ YSU (third place tie)
4. UNI (fifth place)

UNI would be the team most likely left out, much like YSU last year when they finished 4-4 in the conference.

[Yotes]

Since we are doing incredibly low odd hypothetical situations, what if USD shocks the world and goes 3-1 down the stretch with wins over YSU, SDSU, and NDSU and a loss against Montana to finish 7-5 and 6-2 in the Valley? They'd likely have sole possession of 2nd place, but with 5 losses. Is that a playoff team? Would a 4 loss team that finished 5-3 in the Valley be more attractive to the playoff committee?

[KUlawJack]

Since we are doing incredibly low odd hypothetical situations, what if USD shocks the world and goes 3-1 down the stretch with wins over YSU, SDSU, and NDSU and a loss against Montana to finish 7-5 and 6-2 in the Valley? They'd likely have sole possession of 2nd place, but with 5 losses. Is that a playoff team? Would a 4 loss team that finished 5-3 in the Valley be more attractive to the playoff committee?

Go home, you're drunk. xbeerchugx

I do agree that when you do the math, these hypotheticals are crazy unlikely.

I think our game in Vermillion will be a big one. Bigger than I imagined at the beginning of the season. USD is acquitting itself very well in its second trip through the league schedule. Glad we are playing again.

EDIT: to your question, I really have no idea. That would be a strange scenario.

[skinny_uncle]

I'm trying to figure out how a team that's 8-0 could go 6-6. Especially when they only play 11 games.


xlolx

[JayJ79]

seems like some of you think that conference record should trump overall record when it comes to at-large bids.
I disagree. Conference record is the key to AQ bids, but at-large should look first to the overall record.

If the overall resumés are roughly equal, then sure, conference performance can be a strong factor.

[UNIFanSince1983]

I still think we lose another game so it doesn't really matter.

However, we keep hearing head to head, but is a 4 pt victory in double overtime at home proving that SDSU is actually better head to head? I get they won the game, but to me it means we are just about equal at this point. (BTW not sure this has been talked about, but those yellow uniforms were horrendous!)

I'm not sure how much our victories early in the season would help as I believe the committee does look at injuries too, and we have a ton of those and are not the same team we were early in the year. We will just have to see.

[KUlawJack]

I still think we lose another game so it doesn't really matter.

However, we keep hearing head to head, but is a 4 pt victory in double overtime at home proving that SDSU is actually better head to head? I get they won the game, but to me it means we are just about equal at this point. (BTW not sure this has been talked about, but those yellow uniforms were horrendous!)

I'm not sure how much our victories early in the season would help as I believe the committee does look at injuries too, and we have a ton of those and are not the same team we were early in the year. We will just have to see.

You can't be serious. Those things are awesome. Very sharp. Wish we would wear a white helmet with them though.

As to the rest of your post, head to head should matter. So should your very good OOC wins.

[Yotes]

You can't be serious. Those things are awesome. Very sharp. Wish we would wear a white helmet with them though.

As to the rest of your post, head to head should matter. So should your very good OOC wins.
Take off your piss colored glasses, they were in no way sharp. I'm all for supporting a cause, does not excuse those uniforms though.

[Evolution Prime]

Take off your piss colored glasses, they were in no way sharp. I'm all for supporting a cause, does not excuse those uniforms though.

I thought they looked sharp as well. Our fan base is going to say they look good. Your fan base will say they look like piss. What you need is someone from an outside program to judge.

[Yotes]

I thought they looked sharp as well. Our fan base is going to say they look good. Your fan base will say they look like piss. What you need is someone from an outside program to judge.
Well, the UNI fan brought it up. That's one person outside of the program.

[Twentysix]

I thought they looked sharp as well. Our fan base is going to say they look good. Your fan base will say they look like piss. What you need is someone from an outside program to judge.

from the pictures on gojacks.com I think the uni's look good. They aren't as snazzy as the NDSU gold's, but they are up there. I don't like them as much with the yellow pants.. they look pretty good in blue though.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Yellow jerseys in football never look good. The NDSU ones were terrible too. I for one am glad we haven't gone that direction (yet).

[Twentysix]

Yellow jerseys in football never look good. The NDSU ones were terrible too. I for one am glad we haven't gone that direction (yet).

http://bisonnation.homestead.com/trophy.jpg

Best. Jersey. Ever.

[IBleedYellow]

http://bisonnation.homestead.com/trophy.jpg

Best. Jersey. Ever.

11-0

National Champions. Nuff. Said.

[Houndawg]

I thought they looked sharp as well. Our fan base is going to say they look good. Your fan base will say they look like piss. What you need is someone from an outside program to judge.

I think they look good for piss.

[UNIFanSince1983]

http://bisonnation.homestead.com/trophy.jpg

Best. Jersey. Ever.

The team wearing the jersey was good. Doesn't mean the jersey actually looked good...

[Yotes]

The team wearing the jersey was good. Doesn't mean the jersey actually looked good...
In fact, I'd say that this is proof that just because a team is good doesn't mean they look good. Is someone going to tell me that Roos Field because EWU won a NC?

[Twentysix]

In fact, I'd say that this is proof that just because a team is good doesn't mean they look good. Is someone going to tell me that Roos Field because EWU won a NC?

It certainly didn't hurt.

[LeeshaJo]

lets just put it this way... The MVFC is a BEAST this year. You better bring your A game every week or expect to go home with a loss . . . no matter if you are playing #1 or #9.

I still don't think we have seen SDSU's A game. And I personally liked the yellow jerseys just prefer the blue on blue.

[Twentysix]

lets just put it this way... The MVFC is a BEAST this year. You better bring your A game every week or expect to go home with a loss . . . no matter if you are playing #1 or #9.

I still don't think we have seen SDSU's A game. And I personally liked the yellow jerseys just prefer the blue on blue.


Yellow jersey's with blue pants look pretty neat, good road jersey too.

[LeeshaJo]

Yellow jersey's with blue pants look pretty neat, good road jersey too.

SDSU comes into Fargo wearing the Yellow Jerseys your fans would be Pissed. xrolleyesx hmmm... might be fun :D xsmiley_wix

[Twentysix]

SDSU comes into Fargo wearing the Yellow Jerseys your fans would be Pissed. xrolleyesx hmmm... might be fun :D

NDSU wouldn't let them. The hosting team has to agree to nonwhite travel jersey's.

USD would probably let you guys, they let us. Any team that doesn't use yellow/gold as a color would likely let you. ISU-r/b USD YSU SIU etc.

[MplsBison]

Any MVFC team with an 8-4 record should automatically get into the playoffs.

YSU, SDSU, UNI and SIU could all conceivably join NDSU in the playoffs, if that were true: YSU beats USD then loses out and SDSU, UNI and SIU all win out.

[skinny_uncle]

How did this descend into a jersey discussion?
xthumbsdownx

[Houndawg]

Any MVFC team with an 8-4 record should automatically get into the playoffs.

YSU, SDSU, UNI and SIU could all conceivably join NDSU in the playoffs, if that were true: YSU beats USD then loses out and SDSU, UNI and SIU all win out.

No way any conference gets five unless they're the CAA.

[MplsBison]

No way any conference gets five unless they're the CAA.

Well it basically means the bottom five teams in the conference (MO st, USD, WIU, IL st, IN st) need to lose every game from here on out.

Someone will probably screw it up.

[Yotes]

Well it basically means the bottom five teams in the conference (MO st, USD, WIU, IL st, IN st) need to lose every game from here on out.

Someone will probably screw it up.
Bottom five teams? Three of those teams listed are tied for third in the conference. Crazy thought, but perhaps one of them steps up and makes the playoffs.

[MplsBison]

Bottom five teams? Three of those teams listed are tied for third in the conference. Crazy thought, but perhaps one of them steps up and makes the playoffs.

I was referring to my proposal. In that case, those would be the bottom five teams.

I think it's perfectly reasonable for YSU to beat USD, then lose to NDSU, SDSU and UNI and then for SDSU, UNI and SIU to beat every team remaining on their respective schedules.

The only question then: would the committee dare leave out an 8-4 MVFC team? In a just world, it'd be impossible.

[skinny_uncle]

Bottom five teams? Three of those teams listed are tied for third in the conference. Crazy thought, but perhaps one of them steps up and makes the playoffs.

Missouri State has too many losses to merit consideration. SDSU and Illinois State would have to win out to get there. Looking at their schedules, I seriously doubt it could happen.

[mmiller_34]

Missouri State has too many losses to merit consideration. SDSU and Illinois State would have to win out to get there. Looking at their schedules, I seriously doubt it could happen.

Why is it doubtful that SDSU can beat Indiana State, USD, and YSU.

Now I'll be the first to admit that SDSU has underachieved, but c'mon we're past out toughest point in the schedule. I could see YSU beating SDSU, they're do for a win against the Jacks; it's been since 2007.

Even if SDSU wins out I still think we'll get left out. Losing to Missouri State blew it for us.

[Yotes]

Why is it doubtful that SDSU can beat Indiana State, USD, and YSU.

Now I'll be the first to admit that SDSU has underachieved, but c'mon we're past out toughest point in the schedule. I could see YSU beating SDSU, they're do for a win against the Jacks; it's been since 2007.

Even if SDSU wins out I still think we'll get left out. Losing to Missouri State blew it for us.
Indiana State isn't a problem, but playing at USD and YSU is quite likely to result in at least one loss. Good wins don't look to be on your side either as you currenlty only have the one win over a team with a record above .500 (besides Butler).

[UNIFanSince1983]

I was referring to my proposal. In that case, those would be the bottom five teams.

I think it's perfectly reasonable for YSU to beat USD, then lose to NDSU, SDSU and UNI and then for SDSU, UNI and SIU to beat every team remaining on their respective schedules.

The only question then: would the committee dare leave out an 8-4 MVFC team? In a just world, it'd be impossible.

Which one would they leave out is the real question. Would they leave out SIU or SDSU who own head to head wins over UNI? Would they leave out YSU who would have lost to both UNI and SDSU, and would be riding a big losing streak? Would they leave out UNI who has lost to SIU and SDSU, but would be on a 4 game win streak and beat YSU?

Either way I see UNI making it to about 7-5 or 6-6 and being Bowl Eligible :) Wait....

[skinny_uncle]

Why is it doubtful that SDSU can beat Indiana State, USD, and YSU.

Now I'll be the first to admit that SDSU has underachieved, but c'mon we're past out toughest point in the schedule. I could see YSU beating SDSU, they're do for a win against the Jacks; it's been since 2007.

Even if SDSU wins out I still think we'll get left out. Losing to Missouri State blew it for us.

Sorry, Miller. I meant USD. I think the bunnies still have a shot if they can win out. USD winning out is almost impossible.

[MplsBison]

Which one would they leave out is the real question. Would they leave out SIU or SDSU who own head to head wins over UNI? Would they leave out YSU who would have lost to both UNI and SDSU, and would be riding a big losing streak? Would they leave out UNI who has lost to SIU and SDSU, but would be on a 4 game win streak and beat YSU?

Either way I see UNI making it to about 7-5 or 6-6 and being Bowl Eligible :) Wait....

Maybe MVFC can enact a rule saying NDSU isn't eligible for the automatic bid...for some reason irrelevent to everything else...and that will get at least one more MVFC team in.

[Bisonator]

NDSU and YSU are locks unless YSU has a complete meltdown over the last 4 weeks. 11-0 and 10-2.

SIU has a shot but with Faulkner out it's gonna be tough. I think they get in 8-4.

UNI needs some bounces to go their way. Great talent but just not getting it done. Maybe they squeak in at 7-5.

SDSU just doesn't look like a playoff team this year. Their defense just isn't good enough. I think they miss out at 7-5.

[JMUNJ08]

UNI loss today has them squarely OUT - 5 straight L's does not equal playoffs...

[NoDak 4 Ever]

2 bids. Going to be an interesting selection process. Nobody seems to have a lot of depth this year.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

2 bids. Going to be an interesting selection process. Nobody seems to have a lot of depth this year.


Ya, it looks like a 2 bid conference now.

SDSU-SIU need to win out for sure. IDK if SDSU can win in Youngstown. USD and UNI are out. Ill State might if they win out.

[Professor Chaos]

UNI and USD were eliminated for all intents and purposes today. SIU and SDSU still have legitimate chances to make it. SIU especially. West seemed a little shaky today against WIU but also seemed more than capable of directing the offense efficiently. IlSU stayed alive but they looked bad doing it against UNI. I think their postseason dreams end next week in the Fargodome unless they pull off a miraculous turnaround this week.

[OBC]

I like the Yotes chances against the Jacks at home this year.

[Bisonator]

Still think SIU makes it. West was a little shaky but he got some good experiance while getting the W today.

USD will probably beat SDSU. UNI just pissed down their legs this season. My god why did I continue to pick them!xrolleyesx

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I like the Yotes chances against the Jacks at home this year.


YSU ran for over 230 against the Yote defense. USD is going to get a steady dose of ZZ in that game.

IMO, Jacks win that game.

Montana-SDSU-NDSU....probably 0-3 in those games and end the season on an 0-5 skid.

But a big improvement over last year.

[skinny_uncle]

Still think SIU makes it. West was a little shaky but he got some good experiance while getting the W today.

USD will probably beat SDSU. UNI just pissed down their legs this season. My god why did I continue to pick them!xrolleyesx

I hope you are right about SIU. I'm a bit nervous about Misery State next week. After a terrible start, the Bears have won 3 in a row coming in.

[Bisonator]

YSU ran for over 230 against the Yote defense. USD is going to get a steady dose of ZZ in that game.

IMO, Jacks win that game.

Montana-SDSU-NDSU....probably 0-3 in those games and end the season on an 0-5 skid.

But a big improvement over last year.

SDSU can't seem to stop anyone either so who knows how that game turns out. xlolx

USD is definitely much improved and have a very young team. They will be a contender the next couple years.

[Bisonator]

I hope you are right about SIU. I'm a bit nervous about Misery State next week. After a terrible start, the Bears have won 3 in a row coming in.

That will be your toughest test left. Probably a defensive battle. I think you guys get it done. We'll see though.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Pretty interesting reading the Ill State fan board. They are probably right in that if they win their next 2 games they are probably in the playoffs.

We'll see how their freshman QB handles the Bison defense and the crowd.


Bison win this game 35-10

[Professor Chaos]

Pretty interesting reading the Ill State fan board. They are probably right in that if they win their next 2 games they are probably in the playoffs.

We'll see how their freshman QB handles the Bison defense and the crowd.


Bison win this game 35-10
I agree with your prediction.

They can dream about pulling the shocking upset but judging by how they played yesterday against UNI they've got to improve immensely this week to have any chance to be competitive. No offensive TDs and 2.9 yards per play won't cut it next week, and they'll be playing against a better defense than the one they just put those number up against. About the only good thing you could say about their offense is that they didn't turn it over.

[UNIFanSince1983]

I agree with your prediction.

They can dream about pulling the shocking upset but judging by how they played yesterday against UNI they've got to improve immensely this week to have any chance to be competitive. No offensive TDs and 2.9 yards per play won't cut it next week, and they'll be playing against a better defense than the one they just put those number up against. About the only good thing you could say about their offense is that they didn't turn it over.

Yeah we had a chance to beat them and Johnson and Kollmorgen didn't play then entire second half. Granted we didn't look good even when those two were in. The offense for ISU red had nothing on our defense which did seem almost healthy (aside from Farley of course). I don't think it is even close against the Bison.

[Professor Chaos]

Here's the updated list after week 10. UNI and USD saw their postseason aspirations fade away (although they still have the opportunity to play spoiler against other teams) and IlSU stayed alive for another week. SIU is still looking like the most likely 3rd team in if the conference can get three in the field. Here's my breakdown from most likely to least likely:

1. North Dakota St 8-0 (5-0) - Remaining games are IlSU, @YSU, and USD. The Bison have already locked up a playoff spot and even if they pick up a loss I still think they're one of the top two seeds and secure home field until Frisco.

2. Youngstown St 8-1 (5-0) - Remaining games are @UNI, NDSU, and SDSU. I still don't think YSU is locked in, they need to win at least one of these last three which isn't a given. If they slide to 8-4 with a 3 game losing streak to the end the year I think they'd be squarely on the bubble. However, if they win two or more I think they're looking at a seed, potentially a high one.

3. Southern Illinois 5-4 (3-2) - Remaining games are MSU, IlSU, and @InSU. The backup QB West looked serviceable against WIU but they'll face probably their stiffest test remaining this week when the not-so-hapless-anymore Bears come to town. I think NDSU will help them out by eliminating IlSU from playoff contention the week before they come to Carbondale so it's likely they win their last two if they can get by MSU Saturday.

4. South Dakota St 5-4 (2-3) - Remaining games are InSU, @USD, and @YSU. The SELA win continues to look better for the Jacks but they need to win out to have any shot and their last two on the road will be tough. That last game against YSU has a chance to be very interesting if SDSU is 7-4 going into it and if YSU trips up against UNI and NDSU to come in at 8-3.

5. Illinois St 5-4 (4-2) - Remaining games are @NDSU and @SIU. IlSU did what it needed to do by beating UNI but they were not impressive in doing so. Their last two games will be on the road and brutally tough so they're still alive but the chances of them winning both are slim to none.


I'm going to hold to my handicap numbers from last week for the most part but with UNI losing the chances of getting 5 in disappeared.

1 team in: 5%
2 teams in: 50%
3 teams in: 35%
4 teams in: 10%

[ValleyTalk]

I know a lot of people have a made a great deal about YSU's schedule up to this point. However, the fact of the matter is they are 3-0 on the road in the conference, they have won 8 straight MVFC dating back to last year, they have won 11 straight FCS games dating back to last year, they beat 2 of the the 3 teams tied for 3rd place in the league, SIU by 1 and ILSU by by 38.

When you are 8-1, almost everyone on your schedule is going to have a "weaker" record than you.

BEAT UNI!

[OBC]

4. South Dakota St 5-4 (2-3) - Remaining games are InSU, @USD, and @YSU. The SELA win continues to look better for the Jacks but they need to win out to have any shot and their last two on the road will be tough. That last game against YSU has a chance to be very interesting if SDSU is 7-4 going into it and if YSU trips up against UNI and NDSU to come in at 8-3.



SDSU will be 6-5 going into the YSU game and no longer in the playoff picture. :D

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

SDSU will be 6-5 going into the YSU game and no longer in the playoff picture. :D


Youngstown ran for over 230 yards against the USD defense and ZZ is a better RB than anyone on the YSU roster. Stopping ZZ is the key. Make Sumner beat you.

Playing in Vermillion is an advantage but IMO the Jacks squeak this one out.

[OBC]

Youngstown ran for over 230 yards against the USD defense and ZZ is a better RB than anyone on the YSU roster. Stopping ZZ is the key. Make Sumner beat you.

Playing in Vermillion is advantage but IMO the Jacks squeak this one out.


Looking forward to seeing that one. Zenner is great, no doubt.

Should be fun.

[skinny_uncle]

Here's the updated list after week 10. UNI and USD saw their postseason aspirations fade away (although they still have the opportunity to play spoiler against other teams) and IlSU stayed alive for another week. SIU is still looking like the most likely 3rd team in if the conference can get three in the field. Here's my breakdown from most likely to least likely:

1. North Dakota St 8-0 (5-0) - Remaining games are IlSU, @YSU, and USD. The Bison have already locked up a playoff spot and even if they pick up a loss I still think they're one of the top two seeds and secure home field until Frisco.

2. Youngstown St 8-1 (5-0) - Remaining games are @UNI, NDSU, and SDSU. I still don't think YSU is locked in, they need to win at least one of these last three which isn't a given. If they slide to 8-4 with a 3 game losing streak to the end the year I think they'd be squarely on the bubble. However, if they win two or more I think they're looking at a seed, potentially a high one.

3. Southern Illinois 5-4 (3-2) - Remaining games are MSU, IlSU, and @InSU. The backup QB West looked serviceable against WIU but they'll face probably their stiffest test remaining this week when the not-so-hapless-anymore Bears come to town. I think NDSU will help them out by eliminating IlSU from playoff contention the week before they come to Carbondale so it's likely they win their last two if they can get by MSU Saturday.

4. South Dakota St 5-4 (2-3) - Remaining games are InSU, @USD, and @YSU. The SELA win continues to look better for the Jacks but they need to win out to have any shot and their last two on the road will be tough. That last game against YSU has a chance to be very interesting if SDSU is 7-4 going into it and if YSU trips up against UNI and NDSU to come in at 8-3.

5. Illinois St 5-4 (4-2) - Remaining games are @NDSU and @SIU. IlSU did what it needed to do by beating UNI but they were not impressive in doing so. Their last two games will be on the road and brutally tough so they're still alive but the chances of them winning both are slim to none.


I'm going to hold to my handicap numbers from last week for the most part but with UNI losing the chances of getting 5 in disappeared.

1 team in: 5%
2 teams in: 50%
3 teams in: 35%
4 teams in: 10%

Looks about right to me.

[DoubleE]

how can you say YSU, with 8 D1 wins, isnt a lock at this point ?

[AmsterBison]

how can you say YSU, with 8 D1 wins, isnt a lock at this point ?

They're a lock in my book. Who would get in over an 8-4 Youngstown State? The 5th place Big Sky team or the sixth place CAA team?

[penguinpower]

Yes I agree how could they be out? The only loss is to Sparty and they look like they are going to compete for a B1G championship. Given the strenght of the conference YSU should be locked in

[Professor Chaos]

how can you say YSU, with 8 D1 wins, isnt a lock at this point ?
Because 8-4 isn't a guarantee with YSU's schedule. They'd have quality wins against SIU and semi quality wins against USD and IlSU but that's a very shaky playoff resume. If SDSU, SIU, and YSU all finish 8-4 I'd put YSU at the bottom of that list, hence why they're not a lock. 8-4 this year is no guarantee, just like last year there's going to be a lot of teams with 8+ D1 wins.

[DoubleE]

Because 8-4 isn't a guarantee with YSU's schedule. They'd have quality wins against SIU and semi quality wins against USD and IlSU but that's a very shaky playoff resume. If SDSU, SIU, and YSU all finish 8-4 I'd put YSU at the bottom of that list, hence why they're not a lock. 8-4 this year is no guarantee, just like last year there's going to be a lot of teams with 8+ D1 wins.

Lol at putting SIU (who YSU beat) ahead of YSU

[FargoBison]

Lol at putting SIU (who YSU beat) ahead of YSU

Actually that is exactly how I would break it down as well. SDSU and SIU had much better non-conference schedules, plus all three would be deadlocked(YSU beat SIU, SIU beat SDSU and for this to happen SDSU would have to beat YSU).

But I don't think it matters...YSU will defeat UNI this week and will likely defeat SDSU as well.

[Professor Chaos]

Lol at putting SIU (who YSU beat) ahead of YSU

SIU would have a better conference record, wins over two teams (UNI and SDSU) that YSU lost too, and be riding a 4 game win streak while YSU would be on a three game losing streak. Head to head matters but its not the be all end all.

I think YSU has about a 90% chance to make the playoffs at this point they're just not a lock yet.

[penguinpower]

To qualify for the playoffs you have to have 7 division 1 wins.

YSU has 8

YSU beat SIU on the road

YSU beat USD on the road ( before last night they had only lost 6 games in their Dome)

YSU crushed Illinois State @home.

Unless you are saying the Valley is a weak conference then I don't get the Logic. Look at the OOC record of the top MVFC teams.

The middle of the pack in the MVFC is still better than some conference title contenders.

Your logic makes no sense. Your thoughts are preconceived. Half the teams have to lose every week so does that mean that they are weak teams?

[semobison]

Because 8-4 isn't a guarantee with YSU's schedule. They'd have quality wins against SIU and semi quality wins against USD and IlSU but that's a very shaky playoff resume. If SDSU, SIU, and YSU all finish 8-4 I'd put YSU at the bottom of that list, hence why they're not a lock. 8-4 this year is no guarantee, just like last year there's going to be a lot of teams with 8+ D1 wins.

Youngstown is in! Even if they back in much like we did in 2010. They already beat SIU! Why would you put them below the Saluki's if they both ended up 8-4?

[ValleyTalk]

I would not at all be surprised if Misery State beats SIU this week. When I watched MSU against NDSU, I saw a vastly improved team over last years and an offense with a dual threat QB and some playmakers at WR. They are playing their best football in years right now and I think they get the W.

YSU needs 1 more to lock themselves in. Wolford and staff know 8 wins is not enough. YSU has been snubbed (outside looking in with the 7 D1 needed to qualify) on numerous occasions, whether it be on Tressel, Heacock, and once under Wolford. YSU controls their own destiny.

A win next week sets up the VALLEY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP at Stambaugh next week. Winner is guaranteed a share of the title, that is if each wins next week.

[Professor Chaos]

To qualify for the playoffs you have to have 7 division 1 wins.



YSU has 8



YSU beat SIU on the road



YSU beat USD on the road ( before last night they had only lost 6 games in their Dome)



YSU crushed Illinois State @home.



Unless you are saying the Valley is a weak conference then I don't get the Logic. Look at the OOC record of the top MVFC teams.



The middle of the pack in the MVFC is still better than some conference title contenders.



Your logic makes no sense. Your thoughts are preconceived. Half the teams have to lose every week so does that mean that they are weak teams?
Pretty much everyr 8-4 team will be on the bubble regardless of what conference they're in. YSU's OOC schedule that included two non-scholly teams does them no favors in differentiating them from the other teams in that scenario. I'm not saying YSU would be out at 8-4 but they'd be firmly on the bubble and depending on what happens elsewhere they could be left out. All they have to do is beat an injury depleted UNI team to make all this talk moot.

[Bisonwinagn]

I think SDSU will get healthy and refocused after the bye week and win out. YSU will be coming off a huge game with NDSU and will not be ready for the Jacks. I also think SIU will lose again so the valley will end up with 3 playoff teams:
NDSU
YSU
SDSU

[penguinpower]

TSN is carrying the torch for the CAA. Look at the latest headline about CAA strength.

[Daved]

Looking forward to seeing that one. Zenner is great, no doubt.

Should be fun.ZZ gained 4 yds total vs NDSU.NDSU is by far the best team in FCS IMHO--I'm anxious to see how many YSU rb's they hold to 4yds. or less.YSU's offense is one of the better ones in FCS--only one team has put up more points this year on Michigan State than YSU--Michigan States defense ranks 3rd in FBS.

[Professor Chaos]

After week 11 playoff contending teams in the MVFC continue to dwindle. SIU and Illinois St are the latest victims. Here's how they stack up IMO.

1. North Dakota St 9-0 (6-0) - Remaining games are @YSU and USD. The Bison have already locked up a playoff spot and even if they pick up a loss I still think they're one of the top two seeds and secure home field until Frisco.

2. Youngstown St 8-2 (5-1) - Remaining games are NDSU and SDSU. I still maintain that YSU is not a lock yet, they need to win at least one of these last two which isn't a given. Although I'll concede that regardless of the strength of the bubble I'd like their chance to be in at 8-4 just because of the strength of the MVFC and them being only the 2nd or 3rd team in. If they win these last two I think they'd be a seed.

3. South Dakota St 6-4 (3-3) - Remaining games @USD and @YSU. The SELA win continues to look better and better for the Jacks but they need to win out to have a chance and these last two on the road will be tough. USD in Vermillion is no cake walk in what will be their biggest home game in a long time. And that last game against YSU has a chance to be very interesting if SDSU is 7-4 going into it and if YSU loses to NDSU to come in at 8-3.


It's looking more and more likely like just two teams are in from the MVFC. Here's how I'd handcap it.

1 team in: 10%
2 teams in: 65%
3 teams in: 25%


Here's an additionial point I thought I'd throw out there since there isn't much else to talk about for the other conference teams. If UNI wins out and gets to 7-5 (3-5) would they be considered? They'd have 7 D1 wins and they'd have three impressive wins (Iowa St, McNeese St, and Youngstown St) which I would venture to guess would be the best set of 3 wins any other bubble team would be able to throw out there. I'd have a hard time seeing the committee getting past their 3-5 conference record but it would be an interesting debate.

Also, I thought that MSU may still have a shot at the autobid but I was figuring out the tie breakers and no matter what happens they would lose to NDSU in a tie breaker. Even if MSU, YSU, and NDSU all finished at 6-2 in conference NDSU would take the autobid.

[JSUBison]

After week 11 playoff contending teams in the MVFC continue to dwindle. SIU and Illinois St are the latest victims. Here's how they stack up IMO.

1. North Dakota St 9-0 (6-0) - Remaining games are @YSU and USD. The Bison have already locked up a playoff spot and even if they pick up a loss I still think they're one of the top two seeds and secure home field until Frisco.

2. Youngstown St 8-2 (5-1) - Remaining games are NDSU and SDSU. I still maintain that YSU is not a lock yet, they need to win at least one of these last two which isn't a given. Although I'll concede that regardless of the strength of the bubble I'd like their chance to be in at 8-4 just because of the strength of the MVFC and them being only the 2nd or 3rd team in. If they win these last two I think they'd be a seed.

3. South Dakota St 6-4 (3-3) - Remaining games @USD and @YSU. The SELA win continues to look better and better for the Jacks but they need to win out to have a chance and these last two on the road will be tough. USD in Vermillion is no cake walk in what will be their biggest home game in a long time. And that last game against YSU has a chance to be very interesting if SDSU is 7-4 going into it and if YSU loses to NDSU to come in at 8-3.


It's looking more and more likely like just two teams are in from the MVFC. Here's how I'd handcap it.

1 team in: 10%
2 teams in: 65%
3 teams in: 25%


Here's an additionial point I thought I'd throw out there since there isn't much else to talk about for the other conference teams. If UNI wins out and gets to 7-5 (3-5) would they be considered? They'd have 7 D1 wins and they'd have three impressive wins (Iowa St, McNeese St, and Youngstown St) which I would venture to guess would be the best set of 3 wins any other bubble team would be able to throw out there. I'd have a hard time seeing the committee getting past their 3-5 conference record but it would be an interesting debate.

Also, I thought that MSU may still have a shot at the autobid but I was figuring out the tie breakers and no matter what happens they would lose to NDSU in a tie breaker. Even if MSU, YSU, and NDSU all finished at 6-2 in conference NDSU would take the autobid.

It's funny, but when you look at their results, Missouri State is not all that far removed from possibly being in the playoff hunt. Other than Iowa and NDSU, the other games they lost were by one score. Had the ball bounced differently in just two of those four games, they'd be looking at a 7-4 record going against UNI this week.

[BattinRam]

In regards to Missouri State, the Bears lost their starting running back on the third play from scrimmage to start the year and that may have contributed to their slow start. In all not counting the Iowa and ND St. games the Bears lost the other 4 games by a combined score of 14 points.
Since Ryan Heaston's return the Bears have gone undefeated at 5-0. The Bears could conceivably end up in 2nd Place all by themselves in what is easily the best FCS Conference and end the year on a 6 game winning streak and winners of 6 of their last 7 games. As of this morning MO State is now rated as the 17th best team in FCS according to the Sagarin Ratings.
They the Bears would seem to warrant some consideration providing they end up the season beating UNI and coming in 2nd Place in the MVFC. I do feel however that if YSU wins any of it's remaining games then that would eliminate MO State from any post season consideration, as their only argument is predicated on coming in 2nd Place.

[BattinRam]

In regards to Missouri State, the Bears lost their starting running back on the third play from scrimmage to start the year and that may have contributed to their slow start. In all not counting the Iowa and ND St. games the Bears lost the other 4 games by a combined score of 14 points.
Since Ryan Heaston's return the Bears have gone undefeated at 5-0. The Bears could conceivably end up in 2nd Place all by themselves in what is easily the best FCS Conference and end the year on a 6 game winning streak and winners of 6 of their last 7 games. As of this morning MO State is now rated as the 17th best team in FCS according to the Sagarin Ratings.
They the Bears would seem to warrant some consideration providing they end up the season beating UNI and coming in 2nd Place in the MVFC. I do feel however that if YSU wins any of it's remaining games then that would eliminate MO State from any post season consideration, as their only argument is predicated on coming in 2nd Place.
Sorry, a few corrections. I trusted someone else's post on Bear Nation. The Bears could end the season winners of 5 games in a row.
Winners of 6 of their last 8 games.
Lost the 4 games by a combined score of 16 points.
Since Heaston's return the Bears are undefeated at 4-0.

[taper]

According to Massey MSU has the 8th toughest strength of schedule this year. 8th hardest in FCS but 6th hardest in the MVFC. They have the entire conference in the top 25 for SOS. Not sure this rating is entirely accurate but you get the idea.

[dbackjon]

If YSU loses both games, they deserve to be left out.

[ValleyTalk]

If YSU loses both games, they deserve to be left out.
I don't see how they deserve to be out if they finish 2nd or 3rd in the top ranked conference in the GPI with an 8-4 record. However, they have been snubbed under Tressel, under Heacock, and under Wolford. They will likely be snubbed again.

[Yotes]

If YSU loses both games, they deserve to be left out.
They lose both, and SDSU finishes 7-5. 1 bid league? Doubt it. Youngstown is likely in already.

[ysubigred]

They lose both, and SDSU finishes 7-5. 1 bid league? Doubt it. Youngstown is likely in already.

Maybe YSU is having their mid season melt down late xrolleyesx... Lose their last 3 game of the season then reel off 5 straight to end the season like last year xlolx

[Professor Chaos]

Not much changed in the MVFC playoff picture in week 12 but it does set up an ultra interesting week 13 matchup.

1. North Dakota St 10-0 (7-0) - Remaining game is USD. The Bison have already locked up a playoff spot and one of the top two seeds IMO so the road to Frisco will once again go through Fargo.

2. Youngstown St 8-3 (5-2) - Remaining game is SDSU. YSU is not a lock yet but I like their chances at 8-4 just because of the strength of the MVFC and them being only the 3rd team in. If they beat SDSU they can sleep a lot easier next Saturday night.

3. South Dakota St 7-4 (4-3) - Remaining game is @YSU. The SELA win will pay dividends for the Jacks and if they can beat YSU they're in (and may knock YSU out in the process). A lot on the line for both teams in Youngstown but even more so for the Jacks.


Here's how I'd handicap the MVFC's chances.

2 teams in: 75%
3 teams in: 25%


I think UNI would deserve some consideration at 7-5 (3-5) with their three impressive wins (Iowa St, McNeese St, and Youngstown St) which I would venture to guess would be the best set of 3 wins any other bubble team would be able to throw out there. I'd have a hard time seeing the committee getting past their 3-5 conference record but it would be an interesting debate.

[Bisonwinagn]

If YSU loses both games, they deserve to be left out.

Play down the stretch is completely irrelevant!!! If YSU would have lost the same 3 games in early Oct and won 5 straight they would be in, but if they lose the same games at the end of the season they are out????? xlolx

[IBleedYellow]

When SDSU runs train-wreck on YSU this Saturday YSU will have 3 loses in a row, looking in, and SDSU will be in.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

When SDSU runs train-wreck on YSU this Saturday YSU will have 3 loses in a row, looking in, and SDSU will be in.


Agree.

SDSU runs the ball like NDSU straight ahead. ZZ will have a good game against YSU.

[IBleedYellow]

Agree.

SDSU runs the ball like NDSU straight ahead. ZZ will have a good game against YSU.

This. Zenner may be hurt and beat up, but YSU's defense was bad. Even stacking the box Zenner will be able to get yards against them. I just wonder if SDSU's defense will be able to hold up.

[clenz]

Play down the stretch is completely irrelevant!!! If YSU would have lost the same 3 games in early Oct and won 5 straight they would be in, but if they lose the same games at the end of the season they are out????? xlolx

It does matter, it shows how you are playing at the end of the season. It's always better to lose early than lose late...always

Sent from my S4 using Tapatalk

[achrist70]

Obviously I am biased towards the Panthers, and I think it will take a bit of a miracle for them to get in, but if you look at their 5 losses they are to #1 NDSU by 1 point in the Fargo Dome, overtime losses to SIU, SD, and SDSU, and a loss at IlSt without our starting QB or RB. They could easily be undefeated at this point in the season. If they get in I wouldn't want to play them. Of course this is all dependent on a win against WIU.

[Houndawg]

Obviously I am biased towards the Panthers, and I think it will take a bit of a miracle for them to get in, but if you look at their 5 losses they are to #1 NDSU by 1 point in the Fargo Dome, overtime losses to SIU, SD, and SDSU, and a loss at IlSt without our starting QB or RB. They could easily be undefeated at this point in the season. If they get in I wouldn't want to play them. Of course this is all dependent on a win against WIU.

The interesting scenario is if SDSU loses at YSU and UNI,SIU, and SDSU wind up 7-5.

For the sake of argument lets say that the MVC deserves three teams on SOS

UNI would have maybe the best overall resume with an FBS win and convincing OOC wins against Northern Colorado and McNeese but 5 MVC losses, 3 in OT
SDSU would be 4-4 in MVC play against a tough schedule and a solid OOC win against SELA
SIU would be 5-3 in MVC play with head to head wins against the other two on the road but also have a D2 win among their 7, a 2OT loss to EIU and 1point loss to YSU


You're on the committee, what say you?

[Thundar]

can the conference vote to NOT send YSU? UNI at least has a defense, hell MSU

if YSU would have played NDSU, UNI, SDSU all in a row early they would have been 0-3 in that stretch

[Bisonator]

I still think both YSU and SDSU will get in if SDSU beats YSU.

No way UNI gets in, not with 5 conference losses.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

SDSU wins they are in.

YSU might get in even if they lose.

2 Valley teams in for sure, maybe 3.

[Houndawg]

What if YSU wins, does the hands down toughest conferenc get only two?

[IBleedYellow]

I still think both YSU and SDSU will get in if SDSU beats YSU.

No way UNI gets in, not with 5 conference losses.

No way YSU gets in if they lose this weekend.

0-3 skid against the best teams in the conference right before playoffs? Yeah, they can kiss their post-season dreams alive if they lose on Saturday.

[Bisonator]

What if YSU wins, does the hands down toughest conferenc get only two?

Yeah it could very well be only 2.


No way YSU gets in if they lose this weekend.

0-3 skid against the best teams in the conference right before playoffs? Yeah, they can kiss their post-season dreams alive if they lose on Saturday.

They would still be an 8-4 team from a power conference. Losses to Michigan State, UNI, NDSU and SDSU which are pretty good teams. 24 team field helps their chances too. I don't know who would replace them in the field.

[BISON Thunder]

Not much changed in the MVFC playoff picture in week 12 but it does set up an ultra interesting week 13 matchup.

1. North Dakota St 10-0 (7-0) - Remaining game is USD. The Bison have already locked up a playoff spot and one of the top two seeds IMO so the road to Frisco will once again go through Fargo.

2. Youngstown St 8-3 (5-2) - Remaining game is SDSU. YSU is not a lock yet but I like their chances at 8-4 just because of the strength of the MVFC and them being only the 3rd team in. If they beat SDSU they can sleep a lot easier next Saturday night.

3. South Dakota St 7-4 (4-3) - Remaining game is @YSU. The SELA win will pay dividends for the Jacks and if they can beat YSU they're in (and may knock YSU out in the process). A lot on the line for both teams in Youngstown but even more so for the Jacks.


Here's how I'd handicap the MVFC's chances.

2 teams in: 75%
3 teams in: 25%


I think UNI would deserve some consideration at 7-5 (3-5) with their three impressive wins (Iowa St, McNeese St, and Youngstown St) which I would venture to guess would be the best set of 3 wins any other bubble team would be able to throw out there. I'd have a hard time seeing the committee getting past their 3-5 conference record but it would be an interesting debate.

Of the teams mentioned...UNI is the one I least would like to see in the playoffs.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

What if YSU wins, does the hands down toughest conferenc get only two?

Probably....xthumbsdownx

Although a 75 UNI team and a 7-5 SDSU might get consideration depending on how other teams do.

Sad part is that 3 OVC teams might get in and fricking 2 from the Patriot.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Of the teams mentioned...UNI is the one I least would like to see in the playoffs.


The Bison would roll the injury riddled UNI team now.

[skinny_uncle]

No way YSU gets in if they lose this weekend.

0-3 skid against the best teams in the conference right before playoffs? Yeah, they can kiss their post-season dreams alive if they lose on Saturday.
I thinkYSU would not only get in at 8-4, but would have a good chance of drawing Butler in the opening round and get another win over a Pioneer team.

[skinny_uncle]

Probably....xthumbsdownx

Although a 75 UNI team and a 7-5 SDSU might get consideration depending on how other teams do.

Sad part is that 3 OVC teams might get in and fricking 2 from the Patriot.

I see nothing sad about the OVC possibly getting 3 in. It is probably a tougher league than the SoCon at this point.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I see nothing sad about the OVC possibly getting 3 in. It is probably a tougher league than the SoCon at this point.


EIU is good but between the other potential playoff contenders:

Tennessee State
UT Martin
Jacksonville State

If any of the 'others' make it they will lose their 1st game.

[skinny_uncle]

EIU is good but between the other potential playoff contenders:

Tennessee State
UT Martin
Jacksonville State

If any of the 'others' make it they will lose their 1st game.

Maybe, but any of them could beat Lehigh.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Probably....xthumbsdownx

Although a 75 UNI team and a 7-5 SDSU might get consideration depending on how other teams do.

Sad part is that 3 OVC teams might get in and fricking 2 from the Patriot.

Fordham at 11-1 and Lehigh at 9-2 would be very deserving. Both teams have shown the ability to beat quality teams. Both have also spent the majority of the year in the AGS Top 25....

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Maybe, but any of them could beat Lehigh.

Lehigh needs an OVC scalp. I say bring all three on if LU gets in! xrotatehx