New deeper Big Sky?

[Walkon79]

Looks more and more like the usual Big 3 and everybody else.

Discuss.


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[kalm]

Disagree to an extent. The big 3 continue to remain at the top, but Poly and NAU have pretty solid programs with recent success, and SUU and SAC are by no means gimmies.

[DSUrocks07]

What's your definition of "deeper"? Contenders for a national title run? Or competitive within the conference?

[mvemjsunpx]

That Yale loss probably cost CP a realistic chance at the playoffs. They have to sweep to get to 9-3, and that would necessitate wins over Montana, EWU, and NAU. They could get in at 8-4, but that obviously isn't automatic (especially if the field is as strong as it was last year).

NAU, on the other hand, has a relative breeze of a schedule. They do have to play CP on the road, but SUU is the only other dangerous game on there. Their home opponents are ISU, NoCo, and NoDak.

[Squealofthepig]

What's your definition of "deeper"? Contenders for a national title run? Or competitive within the conference?

That is the question, and I'd say it's still a bit earlier. It does seem like there's less of a gap between the haves and have-nots, but how far down the playoff bubble goes? I'm not sure.

So, here's the Big Sky teams with their record, conference record and D1 wins in parentheses and their remaining schedule:

EWU (4-2, 2-0, 3): @UND, SUU, @Montana, @Idaho State, vs. MSU, @Cal Poly, vs. PSU

Montana State (4-2, 2-0, 3): @Weber, vs. UC Davis, @UNC, @EWU, vs. SUU, @Montana

Cal Poly (3-3, 2-0, 3): @Montana, vs. NAU, @UC Davis, vs. Sac State, vs. EWU, @UNC

Montana (5-1, 2-1, 4): vs. Cal Poly, vs. EWU, @Sac Stat, @South Dakota, vs. Weber, @Montana State

Southern Utah (5-2, 2-1, 4): @EWU, vs. Idaho State, @Weber, @Montana State, vs. NAU

Northern Arizona (4-2, 2-1, 4): vs. Idaho State, @Cal Poly, vs. UND, vs. UNC, @SUU

Sac State (2-1, 3-4, 2): @UND, vs. Montana, @Cal Poly, @PSU, vs. UC Davis

Must win out:

UC Davis (2-5, 2-1, 2): @UNC, @Montana State, vs. Cal Poly, vs. UND, @Sac State

North Dakota (2-4, 1-2, 2): vs. Sac State, @Portland State, @NAU, vs. UNC, @UC Davis

Idaho State (3-3, 1-2, 1): @NAU, @SUU, vs. EWU, vs. PSU, @BYU, @Weber

Already eliminated:

Portland State (3-4, 0-3, 1): vs. UND, vs. Weber, @Idaho State, vs. Sac State, @EWU

Weber State (1-6, 0-3, 1): vs. Montana State, @PSU, vs. SUU, @Montana, vs ISU

Northern Colorado (1-6, 0-3, 0): vs. UC Davis, vs. Montana State, @UND, @NAU, vs. Cal Poly

I can see four and maybe five teams becoming playoff eligible, but of course some should fall just shy of seven.

[slostang]

That Yale loss probably cost CP a realistic chance at the playoffs. They have to sweep to get to 9-3, and that would necessitate wins over Montana, EWU, and NAU. They could get in at 8-4, but that obviously isn't automatic (especially if the field is as strong as it was last year).

NAU, on the other hand, has a relative breeze of a schedule. They do have to play CP on the road, but SUU is the only other dangerous game on there. Their home opponents are ISU, NoCo, and NoDak.
Cal Poly at 8-4 would be 8-2 against FCS teams and 7-1 in the Big Sky. I think they would have a good shot of getting in a 24 team playoff at 8-4.

[mvemjsunpx]

Cal Poly at 8-4 would be 8-2 against FCS teams and 7-1 in the Big Sky. I think they would have a good shot of getting in a 24 team playoff at 8-4.

Good shot, but even getting to 8-4 looks like a less than 50% proposition with that schedule.

[malibudude]

At 7-1 in the Big Sky and a 14 point loss to FBS top 20 Fresno St. really? Getting to 7-1 in the BSC will be tough, however.

[coover]

We should see where Poly is with their 3rd QB this season when they play at Missoula this weekend. If they win that one ... they have a shot. If they don't, they would have to beat both EWU and NAU and probably win out in order to make the playoffs.

[darell1976]

UND goes 6-5 at best (loss to NAU), then (hopefully) major changes during the offseason coaches get axed and UND can start to contend in the conference. If Muss is there next season its going to be a .500 season again.

[BISON Thunder]

Cal Poly at 8-4 would be 8-2 against FCS teams and 7-1 in the Big Sky. I think they would have a good shot of getting in a 24 team playoff at 8-4.
No matter their records, two teams I would not want to see in NDSU's playoff bracket are Cal Poly and Northern Iowa...

[kalm]

We should see where Poly is with their 3rd QB this season when they play at Missoula this weekend. If they win that one ... they have a shot. If they don't, they would have to beat both EWU and NAU and probably win out in order to make the playoffs.

There's only 2 MVC teams with less than 3 losses. The CAA has 6 teams with two or less losses. The Southern has 4 teams with two losses. The Southland and OVC appear to be two bid conferences and the Big South might be as well considering how well they've played against the Southern.

Of course many of these two and three loss teams still play each other in conference and will suffer a couple more defeats.

Cal Poly at 8-4 has a solid chance at getting in - especially against a CAA #4 with a weaker OOC schedule or even a 9-3 Tenn. State team who's also played light. A win against a top 10 EWU or Montana would certainly help.

[Walkon79]

What's your definition of "deeper"? Contenders for a national title run? Or competitive within the conference?

I'm just surpised with recent results. I thought UCD, for example would be more competitive against the Griz at home, and the Cats boat-raced NAU two weeks ago after they upset the Griz. Also the bottom of the conference seems to be as non-competitive as I can remember, and I've been watching BSC football for 40 years!

I also expected to see UND contend in conference, and Cal Poly detroy Yale at home. When all the dust settles I'll be surprised now if the Sky ends up with more than 3 in the playoffs, and it will be same as usual. EWU, the Griz and the Cats.

[Grizzlies82]

When all the dust settles I'll be surprised now if the Sky ends up with more than 3 in the playoffs, and it will be same as usual. EWU, the Griz and the Cats.

That is the most likely scenario (EWU, Griz, Cats). Though Northern Arizona has an easy road. Playing at Cal Poly may be their single remaining hurdle.
Unless NAU is caught napping by one of the bottom tier they could be 9-2 with their only losses to Arizona and Montana State.
So if these other three take care of business in their remaining games (losing only to each other), we could see UM, MSU, EWU & NAU in playoffs.

[Twentysix]

There's only 2 MVC teams with less than 3 losses. The CAA has 6 teams with two or less losses. The Southern has 4 teams with two losses. The Southland and OVC appear to be two bid conferences and the Big South might be as well considering how well they've played against the Southern.

Of course many of these two and three loss teams still play each other in conference and will suffer a couple more defeats.

Cal Poly at 8-4 has a solid chance at getting in - especially against a CAA #4 with a weaker OOC schedule or even a 9-3 Tenn. State team who's also played light. A win against a top 10 EWU or Montana would certainly help.

Untrue NDSU is 6-0 and YSU is 6-1 (Michigan state), UNI is 4-2 (NDSU, SIU).

SIU and SDSU, both 4-3 and have already played eachother, may not lose another game the remainder of the season.

USD also only has 3 losses, but i'm sure they will lose more :D.